[HN Gopher] To my surprise and elation, the Webb Space Telescope... ___________________________________________________________________ To my surprise and elation, the Webb Space Telescope is going to work Author : wglb Score : 244 points Date : 2022-01-26 19:54 UTC (3 hours ago) (HTM) web link (arstechnica.com) (TXT) w3m dump (arstechnica.com) | divbzero wrote: | It's probably hard to estimate for singular projects like this, | but do we have a rough idea what the probability of failure was? | jonahbenton wrote: | Learning about the intricacies of the design and especially the | deployment process, and then following the team's incredible | badass successes has been one of the most heartwarming and | inspiring experiences of this otherwise awful epoch. Bravo, and | thank you, and can't wait to see the pictures. | dnautics wrote: | I definitely get this feeling though: "congratulations you | skilled superhero bastards, now never do it like this again". | ianai wrote: | Is it that? Or is it maybe a sign that the current era is a | little hyper-critical and in that hyper-criticality lost | touch with what's actually possible and acceptable risks? | This was no small engineering feat. It's also a good | demonstration of the world of the possible. | dnautics wrote: | Well the delays were a real thing, I don't think it is | uncoupled from the engineering methodology | lstodd wrote: | Seconded. | mikepurvis wrote: | I think everyone felt that about the skycranes on Mars too | (like... both times). | Ma8ee wrote: | I was actually surprised (happily) that they succeeded. It | just seemed to be too many precise complicated manoeuvres | that weren't allowed to fail. | dnautics wrote: | Were there delays caused by it, though? | mikepurvis wrote: | I have no idea what the causes were specifically, but | Curiosity _was_ over two years late in launching (planned | Sept 2009, actual Nov 2011), per: | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Mars_Science_La | bor... | Sharlin wrote: | When it comes to Mars, though, even if you're only a | month late it will normally result in a 26-month delay | due to how often (or rarely) launch windows open for | Earth-Mars Hohmann transfers, and this is exactly what | happened with Curiosity. | mturmon wrote: | Here's more on why: | https://www.thespacereview.com/article/1319/1 | | TLDR: It was not the EDL [edited to add: entry descent | and landing] system, it was the fabrication and | integration (putting together) of certain actuators that | are used in low temperatures at Mars. People at a | contractor, and at JPL, were putting in double shifts and | they came within a very close margin of getting it | together. | | Additionally, there were flight software/avionics issues. | | But if you're set to miss the launch window by even a | week, you have to wait for the next one 26 months later. | [deleted] | salamanderman wrote: | There were DARPA-funded projects back in 2004 to try to avoid | doing it like this, while it was being built. They were | funding investigations into assembling the satellite on | orbit, e.g. send up the segments one at a time and dock them | together on orbit. Those projects were cancelled in W. Bush's | second term after he pushed for manned missions again. To | this day, I still think in space assembly would have been | cheaper and possibly lower risk. | [deleted] | tectonic wrote: | I've been thinking a lot about how much easier this could have | been using orbital assembly (crewed or robotic). So, so many | human years must have been spent designing and testing deployment | mechanisms that simply had to function the first time. | | In 2019, NASA's Astrophysics Division finished up two years | assessing the feasibility of assembling a large-aperture | observatory in-space. The In-Space Astronomical Telescope (iSAT) | Assembly Design Study [1] concluded that In-Space Assembly (ISA) | is the only option for building observatories with aperture | diameters over 15 m and would still likely be strongly beneficial | for smaller ones like the JWST (6.5 m aperture diameter). Efforts | like Northrop Grumman's successful Mission Extension Vehicles, | the upcoming DARPA RSGS and NASA OSAM-1 missions, and the usage | of Canadarm2 to install instruments with standardized interfaces | on the outside of the ISS all demonstrate the increasing maturity | of robotic servicing and assembly. The iSAT study describes a | telescope composed of modules with standardized interfaces, | launched with a spacecraft bus that has attached Canadarm2-like | robotic arms that can assemble and deploy modules delivered by | space tug from multiple launches. The benefits over launching | monolithic spacecraft with hundreds of single points of failure | (cough JWST cough) are clear: the mission won't be limited by a | single launch vehicle's lift ability or fairing size; the same | inchworming robotic arm that does initial ISA can later perform | repairs and upgrades, either with freshly delivered replacement | modules or by debugging malfunctioning parts (see Mars Insight); | the final deployed structure doesn't need to be designed to | handle harsh launch conditions; and, design and development will | be faster without needing to design and test super reliable | deployment mechanisms--if a part fails during orbital checkout, | launch a replacement. The primary challenge is designing hardware | that today's limited-dexterity robotics can manipulate, and | figuring out supervised autonomy with fallback telerobotics for | bringing humans into the loop when needed. There are definitely | challenges, but this feels like the right approach. If you could | do it near a crewed station for infrequent debugging EVAs, even | better. After it's assembled, raise the orbit to L2 with solar | electric propulsion. | | [1] https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/exep/technology/in-space- | assembl... | | I'll be writing about this more in Orbital Index | (https://orbitalindex.com) sometime soon. | vkou wrote: | The difference between automated deployment mechanisms and | robotic[1] orbital assembly is that we have ~60 years of | experience doing the former, whereas the latter is a completely | brand-new, zero-experience field. | | It would be good to develop that capability, but maybe do some | trial runs on assembling something a little smaller, and less | critical? | | [1] Human orbital assembly of the JWST is not possible, because | we do not have any crewed vehicles that can make the trip. | pmayrgundter wrote: | Assembly in Earth orbit is fine though (eg ISS), so just | build it there and then boost the finished assembly to its | destination. | SamBam wrote: | > Human orbital assembly of the JWST is not possible, because | we do not have any crewed vehicles that can make the trip. | | I was assuming that GP meant "assembly in Earth orbit" and | then the JWST could then rocket off on its own, fully- | assembled. (Or, if they didn't mean it that way, I mean it | that way.) | tectonic wrote: | Exactly. | tectonic wrote: | NASA also explored using EVAs for deployment in the 90s: | | "Neutral Buoyancy Evaluation of Extravehicular Activity | Assembly of a Large Precision Reflector" | (https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/3.26480) | | > The procedure and associated hardware are verified in | simulated 0-g (neutral buoyancy) assembly tests of a 14-m-diam | precision reflector mockup. The test article represents a | precision reflector having a reflective surface that is | segmented into 37 individual panels. The panels are supported | on a doubly curved tetrahedral truss consisting of 315 struts. | The entire truss and seven reflector panels were assembled in 3 | h and 7 min by two pressure-suited test subjects. | autokad wrote: | hopefully increased payload capacity provided by rockets like | starship will make this requirement moot. | tectonic wrote: | I don't think so. We're going to keep wanting to build larger | and larger observatories. The iSAT study considered BFR when | doing their analysis. | The_rationalist wrote: | The terrestrial planet finder or any other optical telescope | would have been much more revolutionary for fascinating humans | with unbelievably pretty pictures | Denvercoder9 wrote: | JWST isn't build to fascinate humans with unbelievably pretty | pictures, it's build to better understand the early years of | the universe. | The_rationalist wrote: | outworlder wrote: | > or any other optical telescope would have been much more | revolutionary | | Why? JWST is pretty damn revolutionary. There's only so much | you can see with visible light. You really want old and far | away stuff, go infrared. | mikewarot wrote: | They should have at least built 2 of them. It wouldn't have made | it that much more expensive, and there'd be a backup. | merlincorey wrote: | I'm pretty sure they will have built a duplicate or two to keep | on earth as essentially a staging / testing environment. | | My understanding is this is absolutely the case with the Mars | Rovers which have engineering versions here on Earth such as | this one: https://mars.nasa.gov/news/8749/nasa-readies- | perseverance-ma... | Beltalowda wrote: | Ah yes, Cosmos-style. | | I'm not sure it "wouldn't have been that much more expensive" | though. Building and testing these things takes _a lot_ of | effort, time, and thus, money. Even at just 5% of the costs we | 're talking about almost $500 million (and it would likely be | much more than just 5%). | zokier wrote: | I celebrate when I see first images come out. Feels premature to | now say that it is going to work. How long did it take until we | noticed and understood the flaws of Hubble? | aklemm wrote: | What are the best write-ups about the whole mission? | peletiah wrote: | @marinakoren's articles on The Atlantic give a good insight, | imo. | prideout wrote: | I wonder why they chose to focus on HD84406 for calibration. As | far as celestial objects go, it doesn't seem very interesting. | muds wrote: | There's a great explanation of this on the astronomy stack | exchange (https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/a/48317). | capableweb wrote: | Summary: | | - Available for observation for a prolonged time | | - A star that has just entered its field of view | | - Don't want a star in a field that is too crowded | | - The star should be bright, but probably not too bright | dnautics wrote: | You don't want to calibrate against something interesting, | because of you see something crazy, you'll never really be all | that sure it isn't because your instrument is goofy. | antognini wrote: | Astronomy has long had an issue with this. Back in the late | 19th century when the magnitude system was being formalized, | an astronomer named Norman Pogson chose Vega to calibrate the | system because it is easy to observe in the northern | hemisphere. In this system, which came to be the most | dominant magnitude system, Vega by definition has a magnitude | of 0 in any filter. | | There turned out to be two issues with this choice. The first | is that Vega has a very unusual spectrum for a star. This | means that more normal stars appear to have weird differences | in their magnitudes between different colors. But it's not | the stars themselves that are weird, it's just a weird choice | of zero points! | | A more serious issue became apparent when CCDs became more | common in the 1970s and 80s. It turns out that Vega is | somewhat variable. You can define the zero point of the | magnitude system to be the average brightness over a long | period of time, but that doesn't really help you on any given | night since the equipment needs to be calibrated daily (or | more frequently --- temperature and atmospheric changes | require re-calibration). | | Another source of annoyance here is that Vega is also very | bright. This was a benefit in the days of photographic | plates. But modern telescopes with CCDs cannot observe such a | bright star. It almost immediately. So this makes calibrating | the equipment trickier. (You essentially need a two step | process where you use a small, specialized device to | calibrate against Vega and then measure the flux from a | dimmer reference star, and then measure the reference star | with your telescope.) | barkingcat wrote: | Imagine if we decided to calibrate against a currently- | assumed nondescript stable, in field of view star (HD | 84406) but later it turned out was part of a strange | stellar phenomena that we couldn't forsee (and didn't have | the science for) until later on. | | I guess we can't win :) | dylan604 wrote: | Or the beings in that star system build up a Dyson Sphere | around it causing it to change drastically from our | vantage point. | not2b wrote: | It may be that they don't want to use too bright a star | because it would saturate their detectors, so perhaps they | picked dim, but not too dim, in the right direction. | | Edit: the link posted by muds while I was writing this gives | the explanation. | kingo55 wrote: | On the plus side, we'll get the best view of HD84406 that we've | ever seen. | BlueTemplar wrote: | Heh, I guess all those delays make sense with this kind of | feeling of risk - you can bet that they re-checked everything 101 | times and any piece that was even _suspected_ of not working 100% | as expected was replaced ! | dnautics wrote: | Kind of not really, IIRC the motors for the last mirror flaps | are not working as they should but it was deemed to be within | risk tolerances given a workaround. Also, if I'm not mistaken | it is possible for the telescope to operate down some mirrors. | bryanlarsen wrote: | AFAICT, the reasoning was that opening up the glued-together | satellite to replace the broken position sensors would have | added more risk of breaking stuff than it would have | mitigated in the replacement. | geertj wrote: | Now that we've shown that we can do this (we = humankind), I | wonder what's needed to scale up the JWST design by 10x or 100x | or 1000x... | dylan604 wrote: | "Hubble Hugger" is such an amazing nickname! | AceJohnny2 wrote: | I'm really waiting for @foone's reaction. | | foone is a retro hardware hacker who goes on these amazing | threads on twitter, and is famous for running Doom on various | things, including a pregnancy tester (though admittedly by | replacing most of the internals), and his "Carthago delenda est" | was on how the JWST was a boondoggle. | lalaithion wrote: | *their | enkid wrote: | I mean, of course it's a boondoggle? Isn't everything NASA | does, outside of maybe climate science, a boondoggle? There was | no real reason to put someone on the moon or build a space | station. The Hubble has taken some pretty pictures, but doesn't | really make people's live better in a measurable way. There's | really no reason to want to see if you can fly a helicopter on | Mars. The point is to do something challenging and cool and get | some funding for science that isn't directly related to the | military. | AceJohnny2 wrote: | There are various thresholds of boondoggle. The doubt was | whether the money invested in JWST could have been better | invested in other discovery science projects of the same | category as JWST. | mturmon wrote: | Increasingly, there are applications for NASA science data | taken about the Earth: https://appliedsciences.nasa.gov | | Some of that webpage is a bit fluffy for the HN audience, but | trust me, look underneath and there's a lot of real stuff | there. | | For example, GRACE measures groundwater | (https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/applications/groundwater/) and | has been the main source of information about fast-depleting | aquifers in India and California. | | Probably the best measurements we have of whole-atmosphere | CO2 (as opposed to in-situ point measurements) come from | Earth remote sensing (https://ocov2.jpl.nasa.gov) -- you're | right though, that is climate-related. | | Another one to take note of is MAIA | (https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/multi-angle-imager-for- | aer...), which will measure PM2.5/PM10 over various cities. | fullstackchris wrote: | The successful launch (and subsequent deployment steps) that went | of without a hitch restored my faith in humanity. | | I'm so pumped to see what science and images the Webb produces. | | Could 2022 be the year we find an exoplanet with conclusive | biomarkers? | skybrian wrote: | "Humanity" seems a bit broad? At most, it's increased my faith | in the scientists and engineers who work on space missions. | dylan604 wrote: | Using the same filter, I'd say non-Boeing engineers. After | the 737Max revelations, the fact that they can't figure out | why their space capsule doesn't work, etc, I'd be very very | concerned for any of their space craft not screwing up after | the launch. All of those $numberOfMinutesOfTerror would be | excruciating from a Boeing engineered anything at this point. | lamontcg wrote: | Boeing management, not engineers. | | And they're probably fine if they're supervised by NASA | employees working for the government. | alcover wrote: | But somehow humanity works as a whole for these achievements. | The higher education, the infrastructure, the people merely | cleaning the launch site facilities, all get a sense out of | this. | pohl wrote: | Yeah, that's a bit broad, but citizens who still work towards | doing useful things through public policy deserve some | recognition, here. | stavros wrote: | Ah, you know, this is as much humanity's success as global | warming is its failure. We built a world that can make both | these things. | munificent wrote: | Here's a funny asymmetry I've started noticing online: | | * Whenever a person or group do something bad, the response | is always, "Look how much humanity sucks." | | * Whenever a person or group does something good, the | response is always, "Look how good _those particular people_ | are. " | | Now, there is a positive explanation for this: It's good to | give credit. When someone does something particularly good, | it diminishes their act to say that it's just another example | of humanity. | | But at the same time, the aggregate effect of this bias is | that always appears that humanity sucks with the rare | exception of a few blessed individuals. But the opposite is | much more likely to be true. | 300bps wrote: | It's called being a pessimist. | | Martin Seligman teaches in the book Learned Optimism that: | | Optimists think any good thing that happens is permanent, | pervasive and personal. | | Optimists think any bad thing that happens is impermanent, | specific and impersonal. | | Pessimists flip flop these explanatory styles. The people | you're commenting on seem to be pessimistic about humanity. | TheOtherHobbes wrote: | Or it could could be more that solving bounded problems | that involve moving atoms around - like building a space | telescope - is relatively easy. | | But solving unbounded problems that involve moving emotions | and attitudes around - like building a planetary culture | that isn't violent, irrational, and collectively suicidal - | is hard. | 6510 wrote: | There is also those who paid for something getting all or | non of the credit depending on the settings. | mam4 wrote: | adhesive_wombat wrote: | Since the JWST design started, there's been a revolution in the | "easiness" of launches. | | I wonder if a future evolution of space telescopes will be some | kind of interferometric (obviously extremely hard for IR or | visible light, but easier for radio and microwaves) swarm of | cheap semi-disposible telescopes than one enormous one. | | Then you can add to the swarm, upgrade elements, and retire | failed elements without having to eat a multi-billion helping of | humble pie. | | And rather than have a fearsomely complex integrated sunshield, | you could have a similar swarm of simpler satellites that provide | a large cool area at L2, and then the observers just need to | handle their own heat. | | I suppose this could be described as microservices...in | spaaaaace. Draw what parallels you will from that! | semaphoreP wrote: | Astronomer here, we are thinking about doing interferometers in | space[1,2], but it won't be a catch-all for everything. One | reason is that the instrumentation is equally as important as | the telescope optics itself, and it's non-trivial to have your | swarm of satellites both collect light, but also do science | experiments with the light. One thing we are thinking of is to | fly more proto-typing missions to get the technology readiness | of various components to mature stages before assembling it all | together for the real thing (I would say we did not do this as | well for JWST). | | [1]: https://www.life-space-mission.com/ [2]: | https://lisa.nasa.gov/ | OrvalWintermute wrote: | > Since the JWST design started, there's been a revolution in | the "easiness" of launches. | | Producing novel observation platforms is going to be expensive | regardless of which platform, because of launch costs. | | > I wonder if a future evolution of space telescopes will be | some kind of interferometric (obviously extremely hard for IR | or visible light, but easier for radio and microwaves) swarm of | cheap semi-disposible telescopes than one enormous one. | | With space recovery and repair mission capabilities like | https://nexis.gsfc.nasa.gov/osam-1.html growing, a single large | asset could be easier to repair than constant refresh. | | Anyways, small satellites = small sensors. | | There is a big difference between a projected life of 1-3 | years, and a prestige mission with a long lifespan. Hubble has | been operating for ~30 years now. | | > Then you can add to the swarm, upgrade elements, and retire | failed elements without having to eat a multi-billion helping | of humble pie. | | Keeping a swarm of space assets ideally situated over time, | with proper attitudes and control is a non-trivial problem. | Look at Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission, that is considered a | hard problem. | | Software solutions don't always translate to hardware. | adhesive_wombat wrote: | Well of course its not going to be simple, and I doubt it | would even be possible for the JWST successor, which I assume | are already being sketched out, but its an interesting idea | to think about. Satellite swarms are a very active area of | research, along with cheap launches enabling cheap hardware | based on substantially COTS electronics, which means 10 | "unreliable" things, of which 9 may fail may be cheaper than | 1 gold-plated one that will definitely not fail. | | And yes, they have small elements, that's the whole point. A | small element is disproportionately easier to produce than a | bigger one. The point of The Swarm would be to offset the | small area individually small elements with a large number of | them. ALMA does this, and they even pick the dishes up with | giant forklifts and move them around to reconfigure the | array. | | Optical interferometric arrays are very hard and only | recently even possible, so it's unlikely you could do it in | space "soon" (even LISA is still a long way out, and that's | been planned since I was at school). I obviously don't have a | handle on if the added noise from positioning errors | outweighs the literally astronomical baseline advantage. | | And yes, Hubble might have lasted 30 years, but JWST has | about 10 years life, and then it's dead and will fall away | from L2 unless they can get a refuel/regas mission launched | (it does have the ports for it) to it in time. | | Of course any number of practical issues can torpedo such a | thing from the phase space of feasible implementations, but | they're still fun to think about. | mikepurvis wrote: | "Hubble has been operating for ~30 years now." | | Right, and the GPS constellation has been active for almost | thirty years too. I think the GP is probably right that it | would be great if the risk associated with a single mega | launch/deployment could be spread over a fleet, but | ultimately it does no good if you can't use that | configuration to get the observations you want, hence the | question. It has less to do with it being a "software | solution" and more just whether it would actually practically | work. | | To their point, though, lots of ground-based radio telescopes | are now also arrays of many dishes [1], so it's not at all | hard to imagine that a similar configuration could be of | value in space. | | [1]: https://public.nrao.edu/telescopes/vla/ | adhesive_wombat wrote: | The fearsome requirements imposed by optical interferometry | are a real killer here: the JWST mirror segments can be | controlled with 10nm precision for a reason. | | Radio is a billion times easier (at least in naive terms): | wavelengths in the kilometers rather than hundreds of | nanometers | snewman wrote: | > Producing novel observation platforms is going to be | expensive regardless of which platform, because of launch | costs. | | This is exactly the point: launch costs are coming down, and | there is widespread anticipation that they will start to | plummet as the next generation of launchers comes online. | If/when Starship (a) becomes available + (b) has any | significant competition, launch costs could plummet by an | incredible factor. | samwillis wrote: | The other thing to bear in mind is the size of up coming launch | vehicles. SpaceX Starship will be 9m and Blue Origin's New Glen | is expected to be 7m in diameter. Both of those could take a | telescope the size of James Webb with much lest or no | "unfolding" required. | | Annother option with some of these cheaper launch vehicles is | to build the telescope into the upper stage, using it as a | bus/platform. So for example you could convert a Starship upper | stage into a telescope, using its full 9m diameter for a | mirror. Fully assembled on the ground before launch. | peterburkimsher wrote: | Yes, small satellites are simpler and cheaper. Larger systems | are complicated and expensive. | | But the entropy of a large system is low, because it's | physically attached with the Strong Force of physics. There is | a low risk to other neighbouring satellites (space junk | collisions). A swarm of small satellites has high entropy, and | is loosely-coupled with the Gravity force of physics. | | At what point do we want to accept the financial tradeoffs | involved? Humans and the economy also benefit from the large | projects, and the management structures also teach efficiency | to more people who can go on to create other exciting new | sensors. | | We could start with a small satellite like Sputnik, and make | them grow. Eventually it will reach a point of stability with | the neighbouring environment. That could be much larger than we | expect. "That's no moon, it's a spaceship!" | pilsetnieks wrote: | > But the entropy of a large system is low, because it's | physically attached with the Strong Force of physics. There | is a low risk to other neighbouring satellites (space junk | collisions). A swarm of small satellites has high entropy, | and is loosely-coupled with the Gravity force of physics. | | I'm going to go and assume that you used the strong force and | gravity as metaphors here. | adhesive_wombat wrote: | One advantage of L2 is that it's a point of gravitational | metastability when entropy inevitably hits, your satellite | will slowly fall away from the point, and either depart for a | long, initially slow, fall back to something rocky, or spiral | out from the Earth-Moon system into interplanetary space. | | An L2 swarm isn't bound together by gravity, it actually has | to maintain active control to stay there, so it's a "self | cleaning" area. | stackedinserter wrote: | "Satellites are livestock, not pets"! | dylan604 wrote: | >in spaaaaace | | in recognition of getting old(er), i wonder how many youngins | even know there's a reference to be caught here. | xcambar wrote: | TIL, I am youngling. | sho_hn wrote: | How could you feel old about something that jus... 10 years?! | dylan604 wrote: | wrong reference if you think it is only 10 years old | zargon wrote: | Got a young one here. Try 40 years. | csdvrx wrote: | Would you care enlightening about the reference? | | On duckduckgo I only found some references to The Muppets, a | Springer article and a streaming playlist on archive.org | johnny22 wrote: | i've never played the game, but i think it's from portal 2 | throwamon wrote: | I've never played it either, but I actually know the | reference thanks to this video[1] (which in turn comes | from the once-viral Keyboard Cat[2]). | | [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7C_1QfhpMQ | | [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J---aiyznGQ | dylan604 wrote: | Ahhh, sorry. Thanks for playing. We've got some lovely | parting gifts for you... | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmI77ZBeJrQ | scrollaway wrote: | I believe GGP was referencing the far older Muppet Show | bit of Pigs in Spaaaaace :) | dylan604 wrote: | Ding ding ding. Now, let's take a look at the prizes... | adhesive_wombat wrote: | Due to budget cuts the only prize I can offer is back | pain and a vague sense of nostalgia for a time when | modems made a weird noise and your wierd aunt wasn't on | the Internet. | dylan604 wrote: | https://muppet.fandom.com/wiki/Pigs_in_Space | [deleted] | belter wrote: | https://youtu.be/EmI77ZBeJrQ | secondaryacct wrote: | His compliment of Ariane 5 tingles my French pride. So annoyed | when watching the launch live to see all the ameritards in | youtube chat saying "what why is it not spacex" grrr. And we did | it for free to boot. | | Elon "Electric Jesus" Musk only does it as a business model. | He'll never do important national stuff that go beyond budget | efficiency. | misotaur wrote: | So now that Webb is on its way what is the next Nasa telescope? ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-01-26 23:00 UTC)