[HN Gopher] Twitter based map of Russian troop movements ___________________________________________________________________ Twitter based map of Russian troop movements Author : jillesvangurp Score : 515 points Date : 2022-02-24 09:29 UTC (13 hours ago) (HTM) web link (maphub.net) (TXT) w3m dump (maphub.net) | top_sigrid wrote: | As on social media it is very hard to tell whether posted footage | and information is genuine, recent and from the claimed places, | crowdsourcing the collection of sources probably is a good idea. | Hopefully this will help distinguishing legit from fake | information. | darrenf wrote: | IMO @Shayan86 (a BBC journalist specialising is conspiracy | theories, disinformation, extremism, etc) does a good job of | this: https://twitter.com/Shayan86 | londons_explore wrote: | So far, most false info seems to be recognisable by a non- | expert within a few minutes of research. | | For example, when I see a twitter video of army trucks going | down a freeway geotagged, I can at least use satellite view on | google maps to match up landmarks and confirm the location is | accurate, and I can check the sun position and weather to get | an idea if the date/time is accurate. | | Most 'fake news' stories seem to fail even these basic checks, | although it would be pretty easy to fake these elements too. | HatchedLake721 wrote: | This doesn't stop tens of millions of people taking it in as | truth. | BurningPenguin wrote: | I'd say actually checking them is already a basic expert | move. Most people don't even know about geotags, and certain | groups don't even care. | 0x38B wrote: | Case in point: | | > For Eastern Ukraine specifically, this has included a | supposed infiltration by Ukrainian saboteurs into Russia. [2] | Geolocation of the footage (taken from the helmet of one of the | Ukrainian soldiers that supposedly participated in the | infiltration) debunked the story within an hour after it turned | out that the supposed incursion into Russian territory was | carried out from separatist-held territory. [3] Rather than | showing the bodies of the five Ukrainian soldiers that were | supposedly killed in the raid, Russia instead showed a | destroyed BTR-70M armoured personnel carrier (APC) that was | painted in an ill-conceived attempt to make it look like a | Ukrainian vehicle. [4] Ironically, Ukraine doesn't even operate | the BTR-70M, further showing the attention (or lack thereof) | that goes into these false flag operations. | | Source: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/false-flag- | shenanigans... | midasuni wrote: | Lies spread like wildfire | | Disproving them takes far more resources than spreading, and | doesn't spread | reitanqild wrote: | Good thing is it seems people are getting better at | remembering who lied most and most recently. (Yes, that is | me kind of implicitly admitting that the war against WMD in | Iraq was based on lies. I want Nato but I don't want | Afghanistan, Iraq etc.) | | At this point, after | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 | and after repeatedly saying they wouldn't invade Ukraine | etc etc everyone should know that even if we don't always | trust our own, Putin and those loyal to him are absolutely | untrustworthy. | awb wrote: | On mobile at least some of the links are plain text and aren't | clickable. I found an orange bubble in Donbas like that. Any one | else have that issue? | arcastroe wrote: | I've found Snapchat Maps to be an interesting "real-time" source | of people's on the ground view of Kyiv and Kharkiv and other | populated cities in Ukraine. Can see people's photos and videos | from the last 48 hours and it helps paint a picture of the | situation (to complement curated images from media sources). | toxik wrote: | Uh, this is missing bombings in several Ukrainian cities, not | least Kiyv, Lviv, ~Donbas~ Donetsk. | nine_k wrote: | Nit: Donbas is not a city, the city is Donetsk, and Donbas is | the name of the region around it, from "Donetsk (coal) basin". | | Lviv is a city _very_ close to the border with Poland, a NATO | member. | mytailorisrich wrote: | No military expert but it looks like they are following a | pretty standard strategy of targeting and destroying air | power throughout the country by bombing airports, radars, and | air force facilities in general. | | How far will their ground troops then go? We shall see... | toxik wrote: | No doubt the Russian strategy will be to establish a strong | presence on the western side of the Dnieper. | [deleted] | unfocussed_mike wrote: | It maps troop movements, though. All of those initial bombings | have happened from Russia, Crimea and Belarus. | | Apparently this phase won't last long because it can't (Russia | according to analysts in the Guardian doesn't have many guided | munitions in this range). | | So we will perhaps see this map change very quickly as troops | move in. | superdug wrote: | It's a weird place to be where I can watch a war unfold on | television and have live geotagged curated material laid out on a | map on my computer. It's amazing and depressing at the same time. | LesZedCB wrote: | The phenomenon is at least as old as Baudrillard's work _The | Gulf War Did Not Take Place_ | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gulf_War_Did_Not_Take_Plac... | trinovantes wrote: | Definitely surreal to watch war unfold in real time on | twitter/tiktok | dereg wrote: | Indeed. The first time I felt this sensation was during the | Japanese tsunamis, where we were fed a live, HD footage of the | flooding from the vantage point of news helicopters. | | I pray that we'll never have to use tools like these for | anything other than leisure. | paganel wrote: | The same happened with /r/syriancivilwar back in 2014-2015, in | that case it was even more depressing because you also had some | nutjobs like ISIS directly involved in said conflict, which | meant massacres like this one [1] getting reported almost in | real time, with images from the place where it had all happened | and all that. The 2014 fight between Russia and Ukraine was | also heavily documented in almost real time. | | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Speicher_massacre | baybal2 wrote: | propagandist wrote: | People are wary of government messaging because of things like | the Gulf of Tonkin and the WMD debacle. | | Unfortunately in this case, it was credible and the strategy of | declassifying did seem to work but clearly Putin has made up | his mind. | | One more thing: this is definitely not the place for "I told | you so". | egeozcan wrote: | > I believe I am no mad preacher, and have more authority to | speak on this matter than most of Western "geopolitical think | tanks" | | > I studied politics, sociology, military sciences, and history | as my _passion_ | | > Do not do "Mad preacher" labelling | | I cannot test your knowledge. For me you are just another | account crying large-scale war. You present no evidence, other | than a few observations, stories and a strong conviction of | self-grandeur. | | I'm not saying you are lying, being super intelligent or just | exaggerating, but many people won't "just trust you". You | should understand that. | baybal2 wrote: | > I'm not saying you are lying, being super intelligent or | just exaggerating, but many people won't "just trust you". | You should understand that. | | I don't ask you to trust me. I ask HN readers to listen to | their own countries' military experts. | | Your generals who spent half their life studying Russian, and | Chinese militaries in Westpoint, Saint-Cur and Sandhurst | didn't do that for nothing. | Cthulhu_ wrote: | The author would be more credible if they revealed their | identity and showed some credentials, otherwise it's just | another voice on the internet; it could be a subject matter | expert, it could be an armchair expert, could be part of the | Russian propaganda machine, or it could be a troll. | noduerme wrote: | If Putin attempts war against a NATO country, e.g. Lithuania, | my only hope is that NATO will stand together and respond with | forces on the ground. If he escalates to use nuclear weapons, | he's a fool and I hope the Russian people will tear him to | pieces in the street before he condemns them to death. | jb1991 wrote: | It is going to be very interesting to see if there is in fact | a military alliance behind the military alliance. | noduerme wrote: | I had doubt before this. | | I mean, everyone in Europe had doubt that anyone would | respond to Hitler before he invaded Poland. | | But when he invaded Poland, the world changed on a dime. I | don't think there will be any daylight between any western | nations now, when it comes to how to deal with Russia. You | can't deal with a mad dog by giving it treats. | | If there was any doubt before about NATO's mutual | obligations, Putin has done away with that. Russia is about | to become North Korea until one of Putin's close friends | kills him. Which should take about six months. | Cthulhu_ wrote: | > If he escalates to use nuclear weapons, he's a fool | | And we're all be dead. Nukes is basically flipping the board; | if I can't win, nobody will. | | I mean I hope that won't happen, and that Russia's military | collapses in on itself as Russia's access to the | international (financial) market is pulled. That'll probably | take a while though, it's attrition. It might make the | Russian people upset enough to be able to enact change, but | not while the police and military are still on Putin's side | and happy to stop any protests or whatnot. | noduerme wrote: | Yes, one thing about Putin's mafia form of government is | that if the godfather is no longer able to keep the money | flowing, he will be put to pasture and someone with a | cooler head will take his place. It's an unfortunate | situation for Russia but even if Putin goes insane and | wants to die in a nuclear fire, his system of patronage | will follow the logic of greed. And they're going to be | very angry about this when they lose their yachts. | not_kurt_godel wrote: | There is an entire site dedicated to this purpose that has been | running since 2014: https://liveuamap.com | k0k0r0 wrote: | There is also https://ukrstream.tv/en/liveuamap which seems | like a clone. Sonce I often get errors from liveumap, I use | that instead. I didn't find any differences apart from less | funtionality. But I didn't check that throughoutly, though. | siver_john wrote: | Thank you for sharing, I had been looking for this after seeing | it on here the other day but I couldn't remember the name or | anything at all. | notemaker wrote: | Error 520 | not_kurt_godel wrote: | Yeah it's getting hammered. But still functional on most | refreshes for me. | igammarays wrote: | I'm in downtown Kharkiv, Ukraine right now (SaaS founder born in | Canada). Woke up to explosions at 5 AM this morning. At 12PM | still some explosions, can feel the ground shaking, but the | streets are mostly calm. Went out to buy some groceries, long | lines, but everything still works. Police cars are out patrolling | in full force, but no signs of unrest. Church bells tolling | nonstop. TransferWise is limited to $200 USD transfers but it | worked -- Apple Pay worked at the grocery store. Obviously | internet and electricity is still up for now, but water pipes | have been shut off in many of my friend's places. | azinman2 wrote: | Curious - why did you stay in Ukraine despite all the warnings? | iso1210 wrote: | Dunno about OP, but the BBC has an interview with a Scottish | man in Kharkov, who was unable to leave with his wife and | stepson because of "Ukranian bureaucracy" on this | ridiculously long URL | | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world- | europe-60454795?ns_mch... | originalvichy wrote: | Good luck and stay safe. | sillysaurusx wrote: | What was your impression of the grocery store? Were the shelves | mostly bare, or pretty full? | | I heard most stores are mostly out of stock ("only expensive | food is left") and that supplies are expected to last 15-25 | days, but I was curious if that was accurate. | | Thanks for the tip about TransferWise -- I wasn't sure how to | send money to people. My go-to is usually Venmo, but I haven't | tried it internationally. | igammarays wrote: | Got there at 11 AM, shelves were still half-full, but bread | was gone and it was clear everything would be gone by the end | of the day. | scrollaway wrote: | Good luck. My girlfriend is Ukrainian and has been working on | her family's evacuation plan as well all morning. | | There's an interesting contrast between this comment and your | previous one from yesterday, and she shares how you feel. She | was taken aback by how this "came out of nowhere", even though | it really didn't. Up until this morning, she didn't believe an | invasion was possible. | martingoodson wrote: | 'Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which | leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings' | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias | | We saw this at the start of the pandemic too. | Spivakov wrote: | There is also | | "Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along | phenomenon, is the common tendency for people to perceive | past events as having been more predictable than they | actually were." | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias | | No I do not appreciate it that the comments under this | thread all expecting civilians to be well prepared for | escalation of war. | ajb wrote: | It can be that but there is also denial, which is a | slightly different mechanism. From Jared Diamond's | "collapse": | | "For example, consider a narrow river valley below a high | dam, such that if the dam burst, the resulting flood of | water would drown people for a con- siderable distance | downstream. When attitude pollsters ask people down- stream | of the dam how concerned they are about the dam's bursting, | it's not surprising that fear of a dam burst is lowest far | downstream, and increases among residents increasingly | close to the dam. Surprisingly, though, after you get to | just a few miles below the dam, where fear of the dam's | breaking is found to be highest, the concern then falls off | to zero as you approach closer to the dam! That is, the | people living immediately under the dam, the ones most | certain to be drowned in a dam burst, profess unconcern. | That's because of psychological denial: the only way of | preserving one's sanity while looking up every day at the | dam is to deny the possibility that it could burst. | Although psychological denial is a phenomenon well | established in individual psychology, it seems likely to | apply to group psychology as well." | [deleted] | yakshaving_jgt wrote: | I left my home in Odessa yesterday evening, spent the night | in Izmail, and crossed the border into Romania this morning. | | None of my friends in Ukraine believed this would happen. I | was often met with "Oh... You shouldn't believe everything | you see in the media...". | | I am devastated. | thelittleone wrote: | I'm glad you're safe. | | To what extent do you feel that the sense of security there | (disbelief this attack would happen) stemmed from the | belief that Western interests would serve as an effective | deterrent? Or do you attribute it to something else? | | I'm ashamed that my government (Australia) has done so | little in response. 10 days ago the government was touting | how they'd offered online cybersecurity training for | Ukraine. It would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic. | | There should have been far greater support with defenses in | place to effectively mitigate the risk. Did the West | seriously take Putin for his word that he would respect | Ukraine's borders and is the best we have in response | sanctions? On top of that, Biden said that personal | sanctions against Putin are still on the table [1]. Not | done already? Doesn't this effectively amount to a green | light to the effect of "Yes we're pissed, but its ok, just | don't do something really crazy and we won't punish you | personally". | | I'm really sorry you've had to leave your country. I don't | suggest troops or NATO getting involved. I don't have an | answer that is better, but I'm pointing out that the lack | of planning is simply astonishing. It's tragic that the | people of Ukraine are paying for that. | | [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-says- | sanctions-ag... | altdataseller wrote: | Do the border controls there have a place for all the | refugees to stay, or are you just expected to find a place | yourself? | raducu wrote: | Romanian here. Our government said we could host up to | 500.000 refugees. | | I doubt we could do that, but I'm sure they have enough | spaces right now for all reffugees. | | The news is that no ukrainian refugees want to stay in | romanian provided places at the moment -- they either | have relatives/friends where they'll be staying with or | they immediately want to go to wealthier countries in | Central/Western Europe. | | That could probably change as more ukrainians flee -- | those desperate and those that have no friends or means | to travel to other parts. | | I've seen footage of ukrainian mothers WALKING for two | hours to the border with their children, it broke my | heart. | blobbers wrote: | Glad you're geographically in a position where you can | help. You should start a gofundme or something on here so | that people can send you money to help the people you | encounter. | amatecha wrote: | It surprises me to hear that residents were surprised. Among | everything else, the most alarming/clear warning that a | serious safety threat was looming was when Russia's diplomats | started leaving the country. That strikes me a pretty certain | indicator of imminent and real danger. | BbzzbB wrote: | I wish your girlfriend and her family a safe and timely | evacuation. It is heart breaking how normalcy can turn to a | hot war so fast. Hopefully it doesn't keep escalating, but | there is absolutely no reason to stick around and find out. | | People underestimate how quickly a tense situation can turn | to horror. My mother told me people in ex-Yugoslavia were | going to their cabin to wait for it to blow over at the dawn | of war. Even while it's going strong they underestimate just | how bad it is; for instance in the middle of it (like 3 years | in) you keep thinking it's gonna pass sooner rather then | later. Then there was a bit of a lull and people thought it | was over, life coming back to normalcy - hence why we hadn't | fled yet, and why I was born in that period. Before you know | it, it gets worst then it's ever been, literal hell on Earth | and you're trapped for it, with army and blockades at every | exit restricting movement and catching deserters. We were | lucky to be in a region where it was possible for my mom, my | brother and myself to get out (pretending you're going next | town and some bribe money, but you obviously can't pack your | things and show blockaders that you're getting the fuck out) | and reach an embassy to seek asylum (unlike poor souls who | were stuck in hell holes like Sarajevo or god forbid | Srebrenica). If you're a man it's even harder as you're a | deserter in some warlord's conflict, my dad couldn't have | escaped his nth drafting without savvy trickery, and we know | for a fact he wouldn't have made it out alive if we didn't | turn on a dime and bail. | | Obviously not the same situation, but if people in ex- | Yugoslavia were able to justify sticking to it for _years_ , | expecting it to blow over and not see how the whole situation | was a powder keg, it shows how easy it is to miss war turning | for the worst, let alone when it's lurking over the corner. | qqqwerty wrote: | I am genuinely curious. Did she not trust Biden's warnings? | Or did she think the media was overblowing it? | | The "media" gets a bad rap, but I think we have reached a | particularly bad place if the general public is so | distrustful of it that we can't use it to communicate about | very serious public safety matters. | sillysaurusx wrote: | Fwiw, my Ukrainian friend DMed me two days ago saying he | was tired of the media "fearmongering". Then a few hours | ago he sent "oh shit, war has started". | | I think people just genuinely didn't think Putin would call | everyone's bluff and be willing to eat all the economic | sanctions. | noduerme wrote: | In fairness, it's pretty nuts if you're just an ordinary | person, to believe someone would be insane enough to | invade your country for virtually no reason. | chasd00 wrote: | I try to think about this by putting myself in Putin's | shoes but i keep drawing blanks. I only see downsides to | the invasion and no upside from the perspective of | Russia. I must be missing something huge that has a value | > than the cost because the cost, in all terms, is very | very high. | aenis wrote: | Once you have as much as Putin, have toadies listening to | your every whim and reinforcing every paranoia -- its | easy to just start doing stupid things. Small people do | it all the time, at smaller scales, big despots go big. | Thats why the most important thing is to keep term | limits. Power increses expotentially with time in office. | jldugger wrote: | The cost to the Russian people is high, but the cost to | Putin and his entourage is yet another toothless freeze | on overseas assets (the ones they know about), some | irrelevant protests in Moscow, and a hefty increase in | oil prices. | Uehreka wrote: | Hefty increases in oil prices have a way of changing | people's minds. Particularly people who don't normally | care about politics. | 8note wrote: | That would mean a softening on Russia taking the Ukraine. | It's not Russia driving the increase in prices | jldugger wrote: | Can you expand on that? Russia's main export is oil. | bluecalm wrote: | Isn't oil price increasing good for Russia though? Their | oil isn't as cheap to extract so price increasing | multiplies their profit very significantly if they can | find a buyer. | Jtsummers wrote: | The sanctions being levied against them will impair their | ability to sell to a large portion of the world, | including current (well, now former I suppose) trade | partners in Europe. While they could try to undercut the | global price in order to make their oil more appealing to | remaining trade partners, it's going to be a challenge | depending on how the current and future sanctions develop | to even get to market. | | A quick search gives this as the answer to who their | largest oil buyers are: China, the European Union, South | Korea, India and Japan. | | China will do what China wants here. But South Korea, | Japan, and the European Union will end up being harder to | sell to, if possible at all, in the near future. India is | a toss-up, depends on how they decide to participate in | all this. | jldugger wrote: | > Isn't oil price increasing good for Russia though? | | Yes. From Putin's POV: two mehs and one thumbs way up | causi wrote: | _Putin 's shoes but i keep drawing blanks. I only see | downsides to the invasion and no upside from the | perspective of Russia_ | | That's your problem. Putin doesn't care about Russia. | This invasion has nothing at all to do with the economic | or strategic well-being of the nation of Russia. This has | to do with the preservation and expansion of the | political power of one single man and his oligarchal | cronies. The rest of the country can burn as long as they | hold power. | threeseed wrote: | He cares about the legacy of Russia more than the day to | day reality of it. | | It's very common amongst leaders who have been in power | for so long. | | Also given his age he is unlikely to be around to see the | negative decline of Russia as a result of this action. | waffle_maniac wrote: | Great comment. | | Biggest mistake the West has made is thinking that soft | power will work with Putin. He just doesn't care. | Sanction some oligarchs and he still goes home to his | palace like nothing ever happened. | threeseed wrote: | There is also a mistaken view that oligarchs control what | happens in Russia. | | It's simply not true. He has enriched them not the other | way around. | jacquesm wrote: | Exactly. Like I tried to explain to someone here earlier | today: stop using Russia as your reference point, switch | to Putin as your reference point and it all makes a lot | more sense. | frabbit wrote: | NATO has been steadily moving in towards Russia, picking | off ex-Soviet satellite states one by one, and | withdrawing from the treaties that kept the EU safe: | | This was one of the pivotal moments: "US President George | W Bush, in 2002, pulled the US out of the Anti-Ballistic | Missile Treaty, which banned weapons designed to counter | ballistic nuclear missiles." | https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49198565 | | Since then it has been slow and steady escalation | https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/ | | while we fritter away the time that would allow us to | deal with Climate Destruction. | | Yes Putin == $BAD_MAN. Yes USA == $OTHER_BAD_MENS. No, | neither of those justifies military action on either | side. | | This is a stupid waste of time. | older wrote: | It has nothing to do with NATO, it is just another lie | invented as excuse to invade. Here they still have it on | the kremlin website: | | "I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away | from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO and | the Western allies as a whole. Ukraine has its own | relations with NATO; there is the Ukraine-NATO Council. | At the end of the day the decision is to be taken by NATO | and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners." | | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/21598 | frabbit wrote: | And? That statement occurred 4 or 5 months before the USA | had withdrawn from the ABMT. | | I don't know enough about Russia's changing attitudes | towards the USA: how much of it was hope that they could | work things out together to jointly oppress the rest of | the world; how much of it was biding time in a weakened | state before they could mount a plausible defence against | the USA. | | But it does seem probable that the prospect of being left | without the possibility of firing nuclear weapons at the | US while staging bases are set up ever close to Russia | would be undesirable to Russia. | | Do not take from this that I am defending Russia's | actions. I have no interest in either a US nor a Russian | Imperium and think that the Ukranian right to manage | their own affairs without being attacked is paramount. | The same way that I believe that Venezuela and Iran have | a right not to be attacked. | adrian_b wrote: | NATO did not move towards Russia by its own desire, as | you imply. | | All the neighbors of Russia have always known that one | must expect that Russia will invade them at the first | opportunity, so they made efforts to join NATO as it was | obvious that like Ukraine, they do not have enough | resources to fight alone against Russia. | | Entering NATO was not easy for them, because the main | NATO countries imposed a lot of conditions and the new | NATO members had to actually unofficially pay their | membership with billions of dollars in contracts awarded | to companies from various old NATO members. | | The NATO membership was not a free gift and it was paid | dearly precisely because the new members were those who | wanted the NATO expansion, to be protected against the | Russians. | | It was not the old NATO who desired the expansion towards | Russia. | | Moreover, calling the new NATO members as "ex-Soviet | satellite states" is an insult. They have never been | satellite states by their own will. | | All the countries from the Eastern Europe are states who | have been invaded by the Russians during WWII and where | the Russians were able to install puppet governments and | steal whatever they wanted as a consequence of the | agreements between USA and Great Britain with Stalin. | | The states from Western Europe have paid their freedom | from Hitler with little of their own money but mostly | with what was not theirs to give, i.e. with the countries | from Eastern Europe, which were given to the Russians. | threeseed wrote: | NATO is a defensive, voluntary organisation. | | This idea that it somehow coercing Eastern European | countries to join is baseless and ridiculous. | grey-area wrote: | The gamble is that the west will back off and leave him | in possession of Ukraine, as they did with Crimea. Then | he can gradually extend control over other encircled | states to the north of belarus. More counties to loot, | more resources to share with his friends. Absolutely zero | personal consequences for him. | | He's quite happy to sacrifice the lives and prosperity of | millions of Russian people if necessary in pursuit of | this plan. He's quite happy to preside over chaos and | destruction and call it peace. | | Putin won't stop until he is stopped with force and he | has very clearly stated his long term goals - the | expansion of the Russian empire for his profit. He has | not been subtle about this, the invasion was planned at | least weeks ago and the signs were all there: | | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30056419 | chrononaut wrote: | > Then he can gradually extend control over other | encircled states to the north of belarus. | | Except those countries are actually in NATO, so the | circumstances will be quite different. Won't stop him | from influencing pressure though. | LoveMortuus wrote: | Russia made a deal with Ukraine like 30 or 40 years ago | that Ukraine wouldn't join EU or NATO. | | For unknown reasons Ukraine started to want to join EU | and/or NATO. | | If Ukraine joins NATO then Russia would be basically | surrounded by NATO forces. | | The biggest issue here is that USA has been placing | rockets near the borders of Russia in NATO countries and | these rockets just happen to face Russia. If Ukraine | joined NATO, who's to say that USA wouldn't place rockets | there's as well and thus have an incredibly huge reach | into Russia. | | Don't get me wrong, I'm a pacifist, if I could I would | remove all militaries, there's really no reason to have | them, since I believe that with rational conversation you | can solve any and all issues. | | But a fact is still a fact even if you don't like it... | | I've been waiting for ten years and am still waiting for | my country to legalise marijuana. | | Everyone just needs to chill~ | | Can't we just pass the joint around and be friends? | Viliam1234 wrote: | > For unknown reasons Ukraine started to want to join EU | and/or NATO. | | Could it perhaps be related to the fact that they were | promised neutrality (also by Russia) in exchange for | giving up their nuclear weapons... and then Russia | invaded Crimea anyway? | mstade wrote: | So I've heard this rocket argument for a long time, never | been presented with verifiable sources but I've also | though that it seems plausible that the US would and | indeed have done this. So if we take this as fact, which | I'm not saying I do, but if - wouldn't invading and | annexing Ukraine basically inch Russia even closer to | these missiles? I see Poland and Romania right there, and | they are in fact NATO members are they not? | | Also, what strategic value does Ukraine have, that for | instance the Baltic countries (also NATO members) do not? | I'm not saying you're wrong, but I can't shake the | feeling that the "Russia doesn't like NATO and Ukraine | becoming a member is a bridge too far" argument feels | more like a straw man than anything else. | | I'm probably just too dumb to get it, so if someone more | enlightened would like to clarify why invading Ukraine | helps the Russian anti NATO effort I'd be much obliged! | toyg wrote: | It really doesn't. The strategic value is in securing the | coast for good (Crimea was still kinda exposed), clearing | up the wild-west they themselves created around Donbass, | and providing a new avenue for gas pipelines, effectively | neutering any Ukrainian leverage over Russia forever and | ever. The NATO-expansion argument is just propaganda, not | even the Russians really believe it. | mstade wrote: | This makes much more sense, thank you! | danans wrote: | > I only see downsides to the invasion and no upside from | the perspective of Russia. | | Not everything comes down to dollars and cents. The | Russian president spelled out in his speech that he | believes that Ukraine has always been a region of Russia, | and never an independent state, and therefore he believes | it has no right to an independent existence. The | motivations are mostly in historical terms, even if there | are economic gains for Russia in the end. | | Also, an authoritarian state like Russia using its | military might to shut down a nascent democracy like | Ukraine is a pretty powerful narrative for the pre- | emininence of the former type of government over the | latter. There has been quite a bit of solidarity on this | subject between authoritarian governments like Russia and | China in recent years. | qqqwerty wrote: | I think he is gambling that he can "Shock and Awe" his | way across Ukraine in a few days with minimal casualties. | And then quickly install a new government or declare | Ukraine a Russian territory. | | This is probably why he gave such a strong warning | against NATO intervention (re: veiled nuclear threat), he | doesn't want anyone interfering with that initial push, | which could then lead to a long drawn out conflict. | | And this is also probably why Trump, Tucker and other | hard right leaders and factions are still parroting pro- | Putin propaganda. If "Shock and Awe" works, then the | "post-war" narrative is going to switch to something like | "See that wasn't a big deal, the media was just | scaremongering, the Ukrainian people did not want to | fight, and prefer to be a part of Russia. Everyone needs | to chill out and move on." | | This is not to say that I don't think Putin is crazy. But | just trying to read between the lines, I think they think | they can get away with this. After all they did invade | Crimea with little pushback. On one hand, I hope Ukraine | will pull through, but on the other hand, I do worry that | the longer this draws out, the further we get away from | Putin's playbook, and then more erratic he will be. But | if this thing is over in a few days, watch for the right | wing to start pushing for a quick return to normalization | with Russia. | jtbayly wrote: | "the right wing" where? | qqqwerty wrote: | Pretty much everywhere[1]. "Far right" is more accurate | than "right wing". But tldr, Putin and Russia have been | building ties with far right and evangelical parties and | groups across the west for the past decade or two. | | [1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/43555253 | k0k0r0 wrote: | An example of this tie between far right and the putin- | russian narrative seems to be the reporter Patrick | Lancester on various social media sides, that reports the | conflict from inside the "seperatist regions" but in | english and for the western audience. I don't know | whether he's been pushed, though. From the very few of | his hundrets of videos I saw, I feel like he's genuinly | believing what he's reporting. I don't know whether he is | pushed, but I believe it's possible that he's getting | supported. Even unbeknownst to himself through | "crowdfunding". | bayesianbot wrote: | It's surprisingly common take in these times. Climate | change? Fearmongering. Covid? Who's going to be scared of | the flu? And obviously Putin's danger is made up by | media, at least until today. | | I don't think the accuracy rate for these predictions | will be too good but plenty of people seem to think | otherwise. | kodah wrote: | To me, fearmongering is something specific. People | fearmonger about climate change when they act like | _nothing_ can be done or that no action will be good | enough. It 's a form of nihilism. COVID, same deal - | people who spent months trying to use shaming and | guilting of people, at the expense of those who got sick | who weren't being reckless/antivax/whatever are | fearmongerers. Those who are _just_ concerned and aren 't | acting as a mouthpiece - very different. Let's not do a | 180 on the social acceptability of being an asshole; | there are upper and lower bounds to be observed. | tomp wrote: | Climate change is real as is COVID, but the _" | fearmongering"_ part is, that the people who are telling | _you_ to take it seriously (politicians, top 1%, | celebrities) are _not taking it seriously themselves_ | (partying without masks, flying private jets to Davos, | ...). | | Therefore, while climate change and COVID might be real, | most of the _proposed solutions_ are completely fake. | Tainnor wrote: | The West has mostly lived in peace and prosperity since | 1945. It is hard to come to terms with the fact that this | is not a natural state of events. I think this has led to | a certain sort of hubris, that everything will turn out | well and we don't have to make the hard decisions. | | But plagues and pandemics were a thing in the past. So | were wars. And man-made ecological disasters. | jacquesm wrote: | Ukraine has not lived in peace and prosperity since 1945. | Karrot_Kream wrote: | Ukraine is not the West. Outside the West, everything has | been business as usual. | baq wrote: | weak men, hard times, etc. | kofejnik wrote: | I've been begging my father to leave for the past week or | so (and he has plenty of options in Europe and US), he was | sure it's overblown | Grim-444 wrote: | It's definitely an interesting place where we're at. I | personally no longer believe anything mass media says, I | lost all faith in them a number of years ago. They no | longer have the ability to influence me, whether for better | or for worse. | | I think I'm justified in having these beliefs, and some | portion of people might agree with me, while another | portion might call me an idiot, but the reality is that no | matter how objectively "right" or "wrong" I am in having | these beliefs, the fact still stands that the end result is | I no longer believe a single thing mass media says. If they | ever do have a legitimate, "true" message they need me to | receive, whether about Ukraine, or Covid, or whatever comes | next, they no longer have any ability to influence my | thoughts or actions. | | At this point I feel standard mass media has become so | institutionalized, so corrupt, so completely politicized, | that there's not even reform possible; the whole system has | to be torn apart and replaced with some new system, before | I'll even consider listening again. | scrollaway wrote: | We live in Belgium, so it's not Biden she's been listening | to. | | And to be frank, I "saw it coming", but not that much more | than her. I was maybe 50/50 on an attack up until | yesterday. | rhino369 wrote: | Even if you believed it, most people don't have the luxury | of just uprooting and leaving until it gets bad. | | The government still isn't recommending fleeing. They want | to stay and fight--not preside over refugee flows to | Poland. | richardfey wrote: | Isn't this a war between brothers, after all? I want to | hope that Russian soldiers will stop in front of the | babushkas that obviously will never leave their houses, | and show some compassion. | | That kind of humanity is of course much harder to | experience when bombing or using drones, but I do not | know if they're being used. | caycep wrote: | The NYT are running interviews w/ Russian citizens; w/ | the premise that a lot of them are perplexed as to why | Putin ordered all of this, especially bc there are a lot | of friends/relatives cross border. | Mikeb85 wrote: | The media is shit... | | So far Russia's done precision strikes and is simply | rolling troops down roads. They won't encounter much | resistance. | | A month (or more?) ago Zelenskiy said he's not sending | Ukrainians to die. Today there's a lot of tough talk but | there's no indication that Ukrainians will put up a fight | and die en masse... | sitting_duck wrote: | According to a friend of mine who served as a flight | engineer in the red army until somewhen in the nineties | your post pretty much nails it. | | He called a former Ukrainian colleague today. According | to him Russia obtained complete air souvereignty today. | Ukrainian air defence was destroyed by sea-launched | cruise missiles. Regular Ukrainian troops are not | fighting. They leave their weapons behind and go away. | High ranked russian staff promised not to chase them. To | the majority of Ukrainian soldiers it just feels not | right to shoot russians. So Russia covered a lot of | ground today without firing much. Extremist formations on | both sides and Russian mercenaries are the ones who do | real fighting. | | This is consistent with the media insofar as you would | usually expect: x killed troops in y, z troops caught, | strategic installations damaged etc. You cannot get these | reports if one side literally throws their guns away and | goes home. | | In my friend's opinion Kiev will fall within the next few | days if not tomorrow, the government will either flee or | get captured and he joked there will be elections next | week. | cjbgkagh wrote: | This exactly reflects my reading of the situation. I | expect a Russian victory and hope it ends up relatively | bloodless. | baq wrote: | The Ukrainian army was 400k strong and quite experienced. | They're badly out-teched, especially in the air warfare | department, but they will make it up with morale - | they're defending their motherland. | | Russian army just does what it's been told. They're | risking their lives to make a select few oligarchs a | couple billion richer each. They don't want to be there. | | If this doesn't end within a week, it'll take years. | Putin knows this, hence the offers of unconditional | surrender. | kevinventullo wrote: | Al Jazeera reports dozens of casualties already: | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/russia-ukraine- | inva... | Mikeb85 wrote: | Not to deminish that they're people but that's basically | a weekend in Chicago... For a "full scale invasion" it's | nothing and would indicate that there won't be much | resistance. | jhgb wrote: | And I imagine that many places would rather opt out of | becoming another Chicago. "This is nothing, people | elsewhere have it worse" can be applied to a majority of | the world's population. It's a useless argument. | mikeyouse wrote: | Gross. | jacquesm wrote: | If you don't want to diminish it, why do you diminish it? | | When Germany invaded NL for the first little bit there | were not many casualties, those came later. | Mikeb85 wrote: | Because the media and everyone make it sound like it's | about to be trench warfare and then urban warfare for | years and the original parent I responded to implied | soldiers would be gunning down babushkas... | | It's bad but it's obviously modern warfare and there | likely won't be massive casualties because the Ukrainians | aren't marching to die since the west already abandoned | them. | | We were told Russia would be rolling tanks through the | mud and fighting in trenches... Lots of propaganda. | | And an hour ago I watched Biden say sanctions are as bad | as missiles SMH... | | Anyhow, the west abandoned Ukraine, I really doubt too | many Ukrainians are eager to die for nothing. | jacquesm wrote: | > I really doubt too many Ukrainians are eager to die for | nothing | | As in: you don't believe that Ukrainians will defend | their country? | Mikeb85 wrote: | They've had how many regimes in the last century? | | No, they won't die for this. | jacquesm wrote: | They are already dying for this. Really, you make no | sense to me at all. | mikeyouse wrote: | Just the most absurd line of argument from OP -- there | are tons of videos of dead Ukrainian soldiers, burned out | tanks/APCs, videos of indiscriminate rocket attacks on | civilian centers, jets firing on residential buildings, | cruise missiles striking civilian airports, at least one | video of a child on a bicycle being hit with a mortar. | | Because the confirmed number of military KIA in the first | hours of the war is only "several dozen" it's "a weekend | in Chicago". Just incredibly ghoulish. | jacquesm wrote: | Precisely. It is revolting some of the sentiments on HN | regarding this make me sick. | | To believe that Ukrainians will just let their country be | run over is naive, what bugs me is that they are left to | hang in the wind rather than that they receive help, | that's the one thing that Putin really fears right now | judging by his performance earlier, clearly aimed at | persuading the public in the West that he would rain | nuclear destruction on any country that decides to | interfere. | Mikeb85 wrote: | So why isn't the west helping? | | And why do you expect Ukrainians to march to their deaths | if your country and NATO won't help? | jacquesm wrote: | Because they are under the - in my opinion mistaken - | belief that they will be able to deal with this using | sanctions and external pressure alone. For some reason | people seem to want to believe that the counterparty here | is rational even if all of the evidence is against that. | | It is very much like the run up to World War II, when | countries were making all kinds of deals with Hitler | regarding neutrality because they believed that that | would keep them out of the firing line, when in fact it | enabled a war on a much larger scale than would have ever | materialized if the allied sphere had immediately struck | back. But even the United States only responded after | Pearl Harbor. So, now we have a real problem, and the | people of the Ukraine get to choose between abandoning | their country, fighting back or living under the Russian | jackboot for as long as it takes to plunder their | country. | | This is not a good day, for anybody. | toyg wrote: | Well, I'll be frank: between nuclear holocaust and | Ukraine going back to 1989, I pick the latter. Sucks to | be Ukrainian right now, I know, but this is the time to | be smart: France was overrun in a month too, and looked | pretty pacific under occupation for a pretty long time, | but eventually... | southerntofu wrote: | France was invaded because the liberals in France and UK | refused to act against Hitler when he first invaded | Poland and Austria, or when he and Mussolini supported | Franco's coup d'etat in Spain in 1936, crushing a popular | anarchist revolution and destroying any notion of hope | across Europe for the decade to come. | | France/UK argued that helping elected governments (or | people's militias) against their invader could ignite war | spreading throughout Europe, so they would rather not | irritate these angry dictators. Where did this strategy | get us? It's hard to imagine just how different Europe | (and probably the rest of the world, for better or for | worse) would be today if the western powers had | intervened at that time. | | It's also worth noting already at the time, social- | liberal democracies from the USA to France were very | unwelcoming of refugees from the nazi regime. Let's make | sure to make them welcome no matter what our governments | say, there's quite empty housing for everyone! | jacquesm wrote: | Ok, then what about Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania | and Estonia? | | Good enough to supply troops to NATO, not good enough to | be defended when it matters? They should go back to 1989 | as well? | Mikeb85 wrote: | No ghoulish is the west who abandoned Ukraine... The West | who beat war drums but won't defend a country being | invaded. | | You say nice words and the "right thing" but the US | hasn't done shit for Ukraine. | toyg wrote: | Some of their country, probably yes. All of it, including | Donbass and the coast, probably not. After all, anybody | who felt strongly about the Donbass was already there | fighting. Ukrainians might well decide that they can live | with a landlocked country, if the alternative is | annihilation. | jacquesm wrote: | I know a couple of Ukrainians, I can't say they share | your sentiment, to put it mildly. | mikeyouse wrote: | Russians are literally driving on Kyiv as we speak. 3 | million people live there and it's the seat of | government. I'm not sure what to tell you if you think | the Ukrainian military is going to abandon the fight. | waffle_maniac wrote: | > Today there's a lot of tough talk but there's no | indication that Ukrainians will put up a fight and die en | masse | | There's no evidence to the contrary. It has just begun. | dijonman2 wrote: | She is Ukrainian, why should she turn to America's | president for information? | | He does not run the world. | waffle_maniac wrote: | Turn to Putin for information then. Same outcome. | unclebucknasty wrote: | > _why should she turn to America's president for | information?_ | | Because he has the World's most powerful intelligence | agencies behind him? | | I know, children and propagandists will say "but, what | about Iraq?" or some-such. | | But most serious people know that we generally hear about | the relative few intelligence failures versus the | multitudes of successes, and that the U.S. and its allies | unquestionably wield the World's foremost intel services. | | And, here, we have the benefit of hindsight so we know | unequivocally: our intelligence had it right and "she" | would have done well to "turn to America's president for | information". | trasz wrote: | It's not about the quality of intelligence - it's about | the fact that US sources are known to lie when it | benefits them, like they did with Iraq. | [deleted] | baq wrote: | you can and should take US out of there. every single one | does that. | noduerme wrote: | In this case, the western intelligence organizations were | _spot on_ from several weeks ago. Biden played it as well | as he could, reserving some further sanctions until this | happened. I lived through the "Iraq has WMD" build-up and | lies, and I thought they were lies then, before we went in | and found out there were no WMD. This was good | intelligence. | | Unfortunately, it does no one any good. All we can do at | the moment is sanction Russia. But it does argue that we | should be prepared for a nuclear response if they cross any | line west, as long as Putin or some other madman is in | power there. | rayiner wrote: | Using nuclear power if Putin crosses into Eastern Europe | is complete madness. Eastern Europe is Russia's back | yard, not ours. | a-and wrote: | This is certainly a ... reductionist view on geopolitics. | | Not only does this assume everyone in the thread is | American, but also completely disregards the sovereignty | and historic significance of many Eastern European | countries. | rayiner wrote: | You mean realist. A country's sovereignty matters only as | much as it's ability to defend it (or the willingness of | someone else to do so out of their own interests). | | My own country only exists because India wanted to get | back at Pakistan and helped us in our independence war. | If they hadn't, we'd still be part of Pakistan--which | would be what it would be. | noduerme wrote: | Nothing is Russia's back yard. Russia is the back yard. | Russia is the graveyard of civilization, which has no | claim to anything outside its miserable, ruthless | territory. | | I would rather die than live in a shithole under Putin. | | The only madness would be _not_ using nuclear weapons | against Putin if he crosses NATO lines. If he wants to | die rich, he can live a long life. Otherwise let him die | with his missiles, and his daughter who dances. | polotics wrote: | Word! The backyard of a sad Mafia of outdated old Russian | men still stuck in the 20th century. As things stand my | guess is this lasts about five years and ends with some | nuclear exchange over Europe, assassinations across the | West and East, and prude dove China slowwwwly crawling | east, then south, north, west. | slibhb wrote: | Russia isn't going to cross NATO lines. Even if they do, | NATO can defeat the Russians without nuclear weapons. I | can't believe I have to say it but escalating to a | nuclear war is a horrible idea. | evan_ wrote: | What's stopping Russia from introducing nuclear weapons | in that case? | Tainnor wrote: | Probably MAD, as in the Cold War times. | | There's still the hope that nobody, not even an | imperialist Putin, would be willing to risk the total | destruction of his own country if not of human | civilization over some territorial ambitions. | aenis wrote: | What if he is actually mad? Maybe terminally ill and not | minding the scorched earth he'd leave behind? | | Luckily, this is Russia. There is always someone willing | to stab the tzsar in the back when the time comes. | ClumsyPilot wrote: | "What if he is actually mad? Maybe terminally ill and not | minding the scorched earth he'd leave behind?" | | So the solution of the OP is to be madder than him and | start nuclear war first? | | I wish there were someone to replace the mad tzar, its | long overdue | dekhn wrote: | I would say, so far Putin is proceeding rationally. He | prepared his economy for this over many years, made | strategic agreements with opponents of the West, and | slowly built up a force which will now take a neighboring | country using classic military techniques and massive | imbalance of power. | aenis wrote: | Maybe the word that better describes it is 'systemically' | or 'meticulously'. When I am in a mood to get drunk, I | will prepare by buying the alcohol, invite friends, | prepare the food, and then get myself piss drunk. Not | sure if the world 'rational' fits ill conceived plans | that are just well executed. | stickfigure wrote: | Even Putin wants to live. And he probably doesn't want to | go down in history as another Hitler - even to his own | people (the remaining ones, that is). | codehalo wrote: | The problem is Russia can't defeat NATO _without_ nuclear | weapons. | jacquesm wrote: | > Eastern Europe is Russia's back yard, not ours. | | Wow, this must be a new low in these threads. | | No, Eastern Europe is Europe's 'backyard', and in fact it | isn't a backyard. Romania, Poland, the Baltics, Hungary, | Czechia, and so on are all solidly part of Europe. | rayiner wrote: | That's not how geopolitics works. I'm from Bangladesh-- | we're sure as heck India's back yard. | jacquesm wrote: | Where you are from is no excuse for what you wrote. | [deleted] | hammock wrote: | What are you taking offense to, his idea that Russia and | Eastern Europe are neighbors (which seems objectively | true)? Or idea that the US should not involve itself in | Eastern Europe-Russian disputes? | jacquesm wrote: | The term backyard implies a proprietary relationship, | Ukraine isn't part of Russia's backyard and hasn't been | for a long time now, and in the minds of the Ukrainians | has never been part of Russia's backyard. The fact that | the OP believes this to be so belies even the most basic | insight into the reality for millions of people in former | USSR countries who have in living memory what it means to | be part of Russia's backyard and what the price to them | would be if those days were to return. | | Calling Siberia or Kamchatka Russia's backyard might be | accurate. But just like Canada isn't America's backyard | neither is Ukraine - or any other former USSR vassal | state - Russia's backyard. | | Neighbors is an entirely different term. | | As for Europe-Russian disputes, there is such a thing as | NATO, which was good enough to be relied on after 9/11, I | take it that it is still in force? If not can you point | me to the news that I apparently missed? | baq wrote: | I live in an independent country thanks to NATO and EU. | This place used to be Russia's back yard for 50 years. | I'd like it to remain not-Russia's back yard, | thankyouverymuch. | symlinkk wrote: | Ukraine is not part of NATO. It's not our job. | Eldt wrote: | "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for | good men to do nothing" | rayiner wrote: | Countries tending to their own border security isn't a | matter of "good" and "evil." Russia has far more basis | for invading a rapidly arming country on its own border | than the US did for invading Iraq or Afghanistan or | Vietnam or Korea. | [deleted] | jacquesm wrote: | Russia has no basis for this at all, hence all the | pathetic excuses they've been showering the gullible | with. | | And yes, it's evil, and no, it has nothing to do with | their border security, that's a ridiculous suggestion, in | the same vein, you would be ok with Russia annexing | Poland, Lithuania, Finland or Estonia because they are | armed and bordering Russia. | | As for the whataboutism, that wasn't the subject. | astine wrote: | "Russia has far more basis for invading a rapidly arming | country on its own border than the US did for invading | Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam or Korea." | | Ukraine's attempts to prepare against invasion do not | justify said invasion. | jacquesm wrote: | What is so weird about these things: every time you read | a history book you go like 'Oh, I recognize that', and | then it plays out _exactly_ the same. This whole wave of | isolationism and so called neutrality was an important | factor in why WWII went as far as it did, if the world | had stood united against Hitler /Germany from day #1 he | would have had not nearly gone as far. | baq wrote: | if tanks show up in estonia, latvia and lithuania, will | you say 'but they're too small and not worth much?' | | you don't have to be the head of intelligence to | understand importance of ukraine, even if it isn't | technically our job to defend it. Germany, UK and Italy | have scored an own goal, as has US policy of russian | reset. zero upside, heavy downside, bad trade. | jacquesm wrote: | Unfortunately, I'm afraid that that will be exactly the | response. If that happens NATO is done for, but the fact | that today Germany is one of the two countries that stop | stronger sanctions against Russia is a strong sign that | Putin will get away with this and more if we let him. | baq wrote: | Nothing I disagree with, Germany's reaction is pathetic. | I'm also very concerned with Italy, didn't expect that. I | hope they'll sort this out. Only thing left. | toyg wrote: | I reckon Biden made one big mistake, and it was to | pressure the Germans to block NordStream2. This pre-dates | recent events, the pipeline has been effectively ready | for a pretty long time - it had long become clear the | "technical" delays were anything but. It irritated the | Russian kleptocrats, who live off Gazprom, making a | military move over Ukraine much more likely. | chasd00 wrote: | Nuclear response means escalation to global nuclear war. | That's every worst nightmare come true and puts | civilization itself at risk. | | "I do not know with what weapons World War III will be | fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and | stones." | mcguire wrote: | My understanding at this point is that Russia has | destroyed Ukraine's air defenses and has complete air | superiority. Western forces could contest that, but won't | because that could cause unintended escalation. | Mikeb85 wrote: | > Biden played it as well as he could | | Biden played it like shit. If they had never warned of | war maybe Putin could have saved face. | | Instead Biden antogonized Russia, pledged support to | Ukraine but didn't actually do anything. They sold out | Ukraine. They wanted Ukrainians to do what, fight and | die? What good was US intelligence? The US isn't doing | shit... | waffle_maniac wrote: | Putin is trying to conquer a country because someone gave | the heads up on his alleged plans and his feelings are | hurt? People do not give Putin the credit he deserves and | thus Putin plays them. | darkarmani wrote: | > Instead Biden antogonized Russia | | How exactly did he antagonize Russia? | | > The US isn't doing shit... | | What do you want the US to be doing? Are these actions | feasible? | Mikeb85 wrote: | > What do you want the US to be doing? Are these actions | feasible? | | Nothing because it's too late. But had the west given | some concrete promises to Ukraine, I don't know at any | time in the last few years, do you really think Russia | would have invaded? | | > How exactly did he antagonize Russia? | | Really? He kept threatening sanctions, kept saying the | invasion was happening... Even Zelenskiy told Biden to | stop... | | Edit - now Biden is gloating about being right, talking | about sanctions but not helping Ukraine | | Edit2 - Biden's press conference is so bad SMH... Hahaha | Biden just said the sanctions will be just as bad as | Russian missiles are to Ukraine. Clown world... | evan_ wrote: | > Nothing because it's too late. But had the west given | some concrete promises to Ukraine, I don't know at any | time in the last few years, do you really think Russia | would have invaded? | | What specifically do you mean by "concrete promises"? | | The US has been sending military aid to Ukraine for | years. Trump tried to withhold it but was eventually | forced to send it anyway, it was a pretty big story: | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scand | al#... | Mikeb85 wrote: | > What specifically do you mean by "concrete promises"? | | Actually admitting it to the EU or NATO. Actually | pledging to defend it. | evan_ wrote: | saving face would've been withdrawing and saying "What's | this dude talking about, dude's nuts, that was just | routine training exercises, there's no war in Ba Sing | Se." Instead he did exactly the thing Biden said he was | going to do. | stickfigure wrote: | The west is - still - perfectly capable of intervening | militarily without invoking nuclear weapons. Does it have | the courage to do so? I don't know. | robbedpeter wrote: | Putin escalated to nuclear threats already. There's ww3 | potential now. | stickfigure wrote: | Of course he did. And he'll threaten the same thing the | next time wants another piece of Europe. There's zero | reason to believe him; he wants to live too. More | importantly, the vast bureaucracy that supports him wants | to live. | jacquesm wrote: | He's quite literally 'all in', which also means that he | has nowhere to run now, Russia is from here on forward | until Putin has been replaced, either from without or | within a pariah state. | Taylor_OD wrote: | I'm not from the Ukraine but there has been news of | something like this on a regular basis since 2014. It's | kind of like South Korea/North Korea. On a near weekly | basis there is big news about something bad potentially | happening. | | It's hard to know what is serious and what isnt. | azinman2 wrote: | Except Putin has been negotiating with all the other | western leaders to avoid this for the past couple weeks, | and each one basically failed. Doesn't that seem | different? | fsloth wrote: | No. Putin _pretended_ to negotiate while the attack plan | moved on. | | All of those negotiations were a strategy for confusion, | not solution. | | Putin never intended anything else than an attack. | squarefoot wrote: | Also it appears the metadata of the video of his speech | just before the attack indicates it was actually shot 3 | days earlier, which illustrates even further that any | resemblance of negotiations were just smoke and mirrors. | baq wrote: | exactly right. fx levels, bond sales, gold stockpiling, | this was planned for years in advance, in anticipation of | financial sanctions. he has a very, very assymetric | risk/reward in this war. | Broken_Hippo wrote: | A disingenuous negotiation isn't actually a negotiation. | Pretending it is to prove someone else wrong seems | strange. | jacquesm wrote: | Those weren't negotiations, they were misdirection. | azinman2 wrote: | This isn't my point. My point is the GP said this has | been forecasted for many years now so people stopped | paying attention. However, these talks with other nations | ARE new and were highly stressed as important to avoid | war. That hasn't been the case for years now. | jacquesm wrote: | It was forecast for many years, the question many have is | why it took as long as it did, I'm still not sure about | that. I think it was maybe because Putin was counting on | Trump winning re-election that he thought he had plenty | of time. | | As for the talks: | | They were instrumental in getting away with the attacks, | Putin played that for all it was worth, taking a leaf | right out of Hitlers playbook. | boredumb wrote: | "I think it was maybe because Putin was counting on Trump | winning re-election" | | This is the sort of rhetoric that is why no one believes | the media, too much fear of sounding unhinged and | delusional. | jacquesm wrote: | I don't see what is unhinged about it: it was a pretty | closely contested election and it could have easily | happened. Which would give Putin a chance to do this | without any fear of interference. Brexit certainly helped | him as well. | tomp wrote: | So you're still pushing the crazy conspiracy theory that | Trump was Putin's puppet? | | The more likely explanation is, IMO, that Trump was just | _unhinged_ enough to _actually do something_ , unlike the | mellow Biden, who'll obviously just sit and wait (or, | well, sleep). | waffle_maniac wrote: | What? Trump had an anti-war platform. That's why his | response to Iran was so weak (and why he allowed them to | return fire to save face). | | Also, he let Erdogan do whatever he wanted. And the | Saudis. He didn't care! | | And even if you don't believe that, Trump is currently | okay with the invasion. | tomp wrote: | Trump has an _anti-war, contain the bully_ platform. | | He introduced new sanctions for Iran and killed one of | their highest ranking officers. Precision strikes instead | of wasteful wars. | | Turkey and SA are US allies, Trump just continued that | long-standing policy, as does Biden. | | > And even if you don't believe that, Trump is currently | okay with the invasion. | | Quote? Trump said Putin's "pretty smart", which, judging | by their progress towards Kyiv, and the lack of response | by the West, well, you can't say it's not smart (at least | in the short term... long term, remains to be seen). | pc86 wrote: | If Putin actually wanted to avoid invading a sovereign | nation in violation of international law, all he had to | do was... not invade a sovereign nation. | temp8964 wrote: | He was forced to invade Ukraine because he didn't get | what he wanted. /s | waffle_maniac wrote: | How is demanding the end of NATO via an outside party | having veto control over membership "negotiating"? | | It's very obvious that his demands are impossible. Putin | is really a master at playing people. It's kind of | shocking people are _still_ falling for it. | sonicggg wrote: | There has been thousands of troops surrounding Ukraine | since 2014? Has US intelligence been warning of an | invasion since that year as well? | toyg wrote: | The belief that Russian mercenaries in the Donbass would | be eventually relieved by conventional forces has been | around since then, yes. Many were surprised by the fact | that it was not happening, year after year. At some point | the consensus in policy circles was that Putin must had | decided to keep the area as a wild-west buffer. | | The recent deployment near the border wasn't the first, | although it was definitely an order of magnitude bigger - | there were, in fact, questions on whether the exaggerated | scale was so brazen and disproportionate (and unbalanced | - their Asian border is now pretty weak...) that it | couldn't be anything more than posturing. | Regular-Former wrote: | They did military drills on the border every year: | | https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+military+drill+uk | rai... | jononor wrote: | The problem is that for Ukrainians the threat has been near | constant since 2014, 8 years now. So people have heard the | "news" thousand times before that invasion could happen any | day now, and it did not happen... Until today. | ironcurtain wrote: | You mean for Russians in Donbass region, right? There | were 13 thousands civilians killed there over 8 years. | foxfluff wrote: | They didn't have 200k troops and tons of military gear | amassed around their borders for 8 years. It's hard to | believe anyone who's been paying attention to the buildup | would've thought they're there just to chill out. | spicybright wrote: | It's true, but I tend to think humans are pretty bad at | threat evaluation if the threat lasts for years and | years. | | Kind of like the IT admin that doesn't check backup | integrity often enough because there's never been a data | loss issue in years. | Dma54rhs wrote: | It's not entirely true. Someone who lives in Eastern | Europe these border drills and threats are normal and go | back to 10 years and more. Obviously this time they were | better equipped infrastructure wise that the western | agencies clearly said they were but for an average | citizen it was "the same as usual". | TulliusCicero wrote: | Even if that's true, Putin straight up announced he'd be | sending troops into the two rebel controlled regions a | few days ago. That's a pretty obvious sign that this time | was different. | | Like, I get that the previous buildups could be dismissed | as saber rattling and training exercises, but Putin | literally announcing, "HEY I'M COMING IN, I'M SENDING IN | TROOPS TO UKRAINE NOW", how do you dismiss that? | frabbit wrote: | Isn't this partially why armies are routinely sent out on | "war games" or "joint manoeuvers? | | You're never sure whether the Chinese submarine is | "exercising its rights to international waters" or is | preparing for a strike; or the US-Swedish troops are just | making friends with each other or getting ready to | invade. | | That's totally apart from the obvious "sabre rattling" | bit. | vizzah wrote: | One should have only listened to Putin's speech of | recognizing DNR/LNR. | | He told "we will prosecute those responsible for the terract | in Odessa!" | | This second it was crystal clear to me the invasion was | planned and going to happen in a matter of days. | billsmithwicks wrote: | Christ, stay safe man! If you can go West then do. | melomal wrote: | Strong people with attitudes to match! | pantsforbirds wrote: | I hope you all are okay! I follow a blacksmithing shop that | makes axes and woodworking tools out of Kharkiv and they | haven't posted in quite a while. Has me worried for everyone | out there | mcguire wrote: | Why are you still there? | | 1. Keep your passport on you at all times. It's your best | protection against official soldiers (from every side), | although it may not help against unofficial militias. Stay away | from them. | | 2. Make sure your embassy knows where you are at all times. You | are their problem. | | 3. If you can, make your way quickly and quietly out of | Ukraine. | | 4. Avoid posting things like this publicly. It draws attention | to you and puts the people around you in danger. | mcguire wrote: | Oh, and for the love of pete, | | 0. Do not panic. | scrollaway wrote: | Good tip on the embassy, but beyond that, you should know | "getting out" isn't exactly easy right now. There are no | flights, a curfew is in place in several cities, all trains | and buses are fully booked. If they don't have a car, | repatriating any time soon is probably beyond the realm of | their possibilities, Canadian or not. | sonicggg wrote: | US intelligence has been warning of this invasion for weeks | though. There was plenty of time to make your way out. Now | it is a bit too late. | vkou wrote: | The problem with these warnings is that you have zero | idea of whether or not they are honest, mildly | exaggerated, or just political posturing. | | As of a few days ago, it was _quite_ clear that Russia | would invade Donetsk and Lugansk. It was not at all clear | whether an invasion of Kiev would actually take place, or | if it was a fairy tale, just like Saddam 's WMDs. | scrollaway wrote: | This is not helpful. | awb wrote: | This isn't over. Governments may issue advice in the | future that would be wise to heed. | | So far the info from the US government has been very | accurate. | arcbyte wrote: | Truth is always helpful. | | But maybe they didn't want out. | Tronno wrote: | It's also possible to team up with friends who do have a | car, or use social media to find a stranger who is making | the same trip (and pay them). | lpgauth wrote: | Canadian embassy is closed in Ukraine, they have relocated | to Poland. | mcguire wrote: | " _Canada temporarily suspends operations in Kyiv. Due to | the rapidly deteriorating security situation, the | Canadian Embassy in Ukraine has temporarily suspended its | operations in Kyiv and moved to an office in Lviv. | Canadians in need of consular assistance in Ukraine | should contact Global Affairs Canada's 24 /7 Emergency | Watch and Response Centre (EWRC) in Ottawa._" (https://ww | w.canadainternational.gc.ca/ukraine/index.aspx) | | The EWRC is https://travel.gc.ca/assistance/emergency- | assistance | | Oh, and here is the Canadians Abroad registration info: | https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/registration | jhatemyjob wrote: | Biking will always be an option. If you are in decent shape | you can travel over 100 miles in a day. | scrollaway wrote: | In the cold, with just a backpack for supplies? I'm in | good shape and love biking, still wouldn't want to take | that bet. | jacquesm wrote: | At least it is a bet. Is there anything that can be done | to help? | scrollaway wrote: | Doesn't seem so :/ Personally I think their best bet is | to wait and see how the situation evolves in the short | term. Russia does not seem to want to hurt citizens. At | least, not yet... | | Urgh, I hate this. | jacquesm wrote: | > I hate this. | | Quite. Russia is now a pariah, until Putin is gone they | will not be able to live this down. I'm _really_ | disappointed that Italy and Germany block kicking them | off Swift, that should have been the first response. | scrollaway wrote: | Same. Feeling extremely betrayed by Germany's response, | as a European. | awb wrote: | By staying you're risking getting caught in cross fire. | By biking 100M in the winter you're risking frostbite, | dehydration, injury, etc. | | Neither is a death sentence. You just have to weigh your | risks. | tshaddox wrote: | It's pretty cold there. I think you'd need to be very | diligently prepared for such a journey and probably more | than "in decent shape." | osivertsson wrote: | 100 miles (160 km) is a lot to bike. | | I'm in decent shape (probably top 10% of the population) | and I did 114 km this summer in great weather on an old | mountainbike with a slick rear tire on gravel roads. It | took me about about 51/2 hours effective riding time. | | To go out biking winter-time 100+ km, in freezing temps | or slightly above that, with high humidity and possibly | rain/sleet/snow you better be well prepared. Especially | if you don't know where you will end up and if that place | will have water / heat / electricity. | 8note wrote: | If you hit a snowy road, you're walking a good portion of | that unless you've got a bike that can handle it | Fordec wrote: | JimBlackwood wrote: | Don't offend people like that. Everyone's entitled to their | own opinion and views. They can also be wrong without having | to be talked down to like that. | darkarmani wrote: | They didn't just have an opinion, they said it was | nonsense. | bena wrote: | Ok. He was obviously wrong. He made a prediction about | the future and was wrong. | | But to say because he was wrong this time, he "didn't | have sufficient knowledge" is just kind of dumb itself. | | He's probably way more aware of what Ukrainians are | feeling about the situation and their opinions on what's | happening than we are. You can have a lot of knowledge, | but still be wrong. Lambasting people and insulting them | for the apparent sin of simply being wrong is the thing | that's degraded and limited useful discourse. | mobiclick wrote: | Perhaps gp could have worded it a bit more kindly, but I | think there is value in calling out people who espouse | opinions without having sufficient knowledge to back it up. | It's people like this who degrade and limit useful | discourse. | | My heart goes out to op and everyone else who has been | unfairly effected by this conflict. | cphoover wrote: | This person's family and friends are at risk of harm or | death, and here you are concerned with scoring internet | points on a forum. Nice... | dionidium wrote: | One might argue that _they_ were too interested in internet | points on a forum and on maintaining an ideological | position that was pretty obviously already untenable. | brailsafe wrote: | It's still a dumb position/argument to point a finger at | someone who is now a target and say "see I told you so" | probably from the other side of the world. | | It's like if your friend just had their bike stolen after | someone suggested not to leave it there. What was a valid | contribution turns into being a dick "Yes, ty for your | useful contribution" | Mikeb85 wrote: | What have Americans done other than warn of war but not do | anything? If anything they made war more likely by preventing | Russia from saving face. Even Zelenskiy said as much. | | But the west didn't actually do anything... Why didn't they | pledge any real support? What use was all the US' | intelligence if in the end they just stand by? | | It really feels like the west wanted this in order to justify | more sanctions and completely sold out Ukraine. | | Edit - on further thought, it feels like the US wants | Ukrainians to fight and die. Really though, what use is the | US? | darkarmani wrote: | > Really though, what use is the US? | | What? Do you want the US interfering with your country? How | many years did you have to create closer ties to the US | before now? Why would the US want Ukrainians to die and why | would they want Americans to die? | Mikeb85 wrote: | >Do you want the US interfering with your country? | | Not in Ukraine, only of Ukrainian descent. | | The US has already been interfering... Orange Revolution, | Maidan, beating the NATO war drums, etc... They | "encouraged" Ukraine to leave Russia's sphere but kept | dragging out real timelines and concrete promises. | | Right now, I'm watching Biden talk about "supporting" | Ukraine while smiling and smirking. But nothing concrete. | Really feels like the US wanted this just to sanction | Russia. But Ukraine is being sacrificed... | sasawpg wrote: | As someone who lived through 4 years of war, my advice is to | get out while you still can. As incredibly difficult as it is, | it will only get more difficult to leave and it is unlikely to | get any easier to stay. I have absolutely no knowledge of the | current situation in Ukraine, I'm merely advising based on my | own personal experience. | | To everyone questioning why Ukranian population haven't heeded | the warnings from Biden/West and left already - I can only | assume you have never been in a comparable circumstance. It is | easy for me to suggest/advise people leave, but I know all too | well that's easier to type on a keyboard than act on in real | life. | awb wrote: | The only thing relatable might be natural disasters and | you're right, despite warnings some get out and some stay. | ecf wrote: | known wrote: | noduerme wrote: | yakshaving_jgt wrote: | It is only very stupid people who believe their enemies are | stupid. | noduerme wrote: | yakshaving_jgt wrote: | Sorry, my home was struck by Russian military this morning | and I've had to flee, so I'm in no mood for your levity. | noduerme wrote: | I didn't mean to be light about it. I'm sorry. If I said | what I really think, I would be banned here. It's a | catastrophe that makes me furious. My grandparents are | from Ukraine and my grandfather was almost killed for his | views about Russia. I grew up in LA around the Russian | mob so I have some understanding of how those thugs | think. I wish I could say what I really want to say. | g45ylkjlk45y wrote: | [deleted] | ryanmarsh wrote: | Internet doing the work of FO's everywhere | kroltan wrote: | Off topic, but what is that circular border in south Kazakhstan? | Map bug, or a mathematically inclined contested territory? I | don't see it in Google Maps. | kingofpandora wrote: | Baikonur. | burmanm wrote: | It's Baikonur. Rented to Russia, and as you see from the map.. | it's quite big area for a space port. | kgeist wrote: | I am from Russia and I've been shaking for whole day for what | Putin is doing. I couldn't even get myself to go to work today. | I'm in complete shock. It's like one day waking up in Third | Reich. | izietto wrote: | What are the news about the conflict there? What are the | reasons told by the media? It may be interesting having a | direct source of the attacker news | kgeist wrote: | Innocent Russia protecting East Ukraine from Nazis in Kiev. | It's so surreal. | exdsq wrote: | Gotta protect East Ukraine from the Nazi-devout Jewish | leader! | | In all seriousness I do feel for you. Protesting against | this will do little and get you in trouble so you're | basically forced to watch. You'll need to accept these are | things out of your control for your own mental health. | Hopefully diplomatic efforts resolve it quickly. | skywal_l wrote: | That map is not up to date. They are already shelling Dnipro. | xfitm3 wrote: | Where do you get your information? | sillysaurusx wrote: | I've been collecting sources in this thread: | https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193 | | Currently I've been watching four Telegram groups. Most are | Russian propaganda / pro-war. But I still find it interesting | to see everything. | | - https://t.me/s/uniannet | | - https://t.me/s/h_saltovka | | - https://t.me/s/istorijaoruzija | | - https://t.me/s/ukrpravda_news | | And https://meduza.io/en/live/2022/02/24/invasion is also | good. | | (I use Chrome's auto-translate feature. Right click -> | Translate to English. The Telegram app is actually less | useful than the web viewer because of this.) | bryan_w wrote: | Now the recent telegram "advertising campaigns" make sense. | I was wondering why there was so much effort to promote it | over signal | foxfluff wrote: | https://nitter.net/TadeuszGiczan | throwawaybutwhy wrote: | Liveuamap.com is much more current, this map is hopeless. | | Start with watching actual TikTok clips. | | 0/ https://twitter.com/ELINTNews | | 1/ https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet | skywal_l wrote: | https://www.standard.co.uk/video/international- | news/resident... | ck2 wrote: | You know a country is failing when the "leader" declares war for | "reasons" to distract everyone from the society collapse | otherwise. 100% like North Korea but with real dangerous power. | Also handily reduces population of your own country to support. | | So many innocent people are going to die for absolutely no reason | at all, imagine if US tried to take over Cuba or some other | coastal island. | | At least we now know what's going to happen to China when they | take over Taiwan, lots of "sanctions" but no action because who | is going to stop them and cut off all their manufacturing/supply? | | With Russia there is nothing they have but natural gas and still | nothing can be done except throw more bodies on the fire which | won't happen. | | Speaking of which, why wouldn't China just take Taiwan right now? | World doesn't seem to handle multiple problems at once very well | and they also need a "distraction" from covid and economy | problems. | MauranKilom wrote: | > imagine if US tried to take over Cuba or some other coastal | island. | | Not like they haven't tried: | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion | belltaco wrote: | I think China is more long term calculation than short | emotional like Putin. Hopefully. | ck2 wrote: | I don't think hope is going to be enough. | | https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports- | ni... | | It's a perfect time for distraction. I almost expect North | Korea to do something stupid too. | adamhp wrote: | > imagine if US tried to take over Cuba or some other coastal | island. | | I think it'd be a bit more like the US trying to take over | Canada, but sure. | ck2 wrote: | I had to check but wow I always thought Ukraine was size of | Florida, apparently it is the size of Texas (and larger than | California) | yakshaving_jgt wrote: | This map is waaaaay out of date. | | There have been attacks all over the country today. | | Explosions in Odessa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, | Mariupol, and more. | | Fucking everywhere. | | My friends and loved ones woke up to explosions. | | My employees woke up to explosions. | | Many can't leave because the roads are massively congested. Cash | machines have stopped operating. The shops are running out of | food. | | There are no flights. None. All the airports are under missile | fire. | | They've raised the Russian flag over buildings. | | This is all out war. | | Evidently, sanctions do jack shit. | | --- | | You will all see videos of this, and so will your children's | children. | | Here's one for a start. | | https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1496805801628995587 | | eto prosto pizdets. | Markoff wrote: | Why should my children see any videos of fighting in Ukraine? | yakshaving_jgt wrote: | Because this is now a major world historical event. | | Obviously. | Markoff wrote: | baq wrote: | meanwhile we here in Poland have major 1939 vibes and not | in a good way: treacherous invasion from the east while | the west sits there and debates. | [deleted] | lm28469 wrote: | > while the west sits there and debates. | | What's the west supposed to do ? Send NATO forces and | start ww3 / a nuclear war ? | baq wrote: | i agree. time to act was in 2008, 2014, 2015-16; | basically until 2021. | | same as 1930s. business as usual, protect our investments | and companies and suddenly oh noes he has tanks at their | borders, too bad, but he won't come for us, right? | right...? | ogogmad wrote: | The invasion of Poland by Hitler was not the UK and | France's "problem" either. | | Assume the worst case with Putin. From Ukraine, Putin | might attempt to annex* all other countries that belonged | to the former Russian empire. In his recent speech, Putin | lamented Russia's loss of the territory it had in 1916. | He considers the whole former Russian empire to be his | birthright. The man is extremely calculating, ambitious, | and doesn't blunder easily. Look ahead. | | * - Or establish a "hegemony", as opposed to a classic | empire. | adrian_b wrote: | The invasion of Poland by Hitler actually was the UK and | France's "problem", because they were bound by treaties | to help Poland, exactly like the NATO countries are today | bound by a treaty. | | That is why UK and France were forced to declare war | against Germany. | | Unfortunately for them, after declaring war they did | nothing, hoping for some miraculous solution without | actual war. | | Their inaction allowed the splitting of Poland between | Germany and the Soviet Union and then Hitler had plenty | of time to prepare for the attack against France. | yakshaving_jgt wrote: | Callous words, written from the comfort of your armchair, | behind the protection of your keyboard. | jazzyjackson wrote: | if your kids are on tiktok they will see footage from | this war, turning on the news is not necessary | brimble wrote: | American kids rarely learn about most of the dozens of | conflicts that have taken place since WWII, including the | ones the US was involved in. Unless this gets a lot bigger, | it's not gonna be taught in the US, except university-level | courses. Everything post-Vietnam is a blur, if it's covered | at all. | | Of course, kids alive now who pay attention to the news | will see it. And future kids who are history or politics | nerds might learn of it on their own. | ciphol wrote: | Really? Fall of the Soviet Union, 9/11, Iraq and | Afghanistan wars are only a blur if covered at all? I | don't think so. | staticman2 wrote: | From what I recall in American history class there's very | little on post ww2 conflict. But I graduated high school | in 2000. | | I think there's little on modern conflict because recent | conflict is more likely to be considered political and | therefore controversial. It's true that there are parts | of the nation where a textbook's take on the civil war | might be controversial- but I think, where I grew up at | least, you could teach up to WW2 without offending a | parent's political sensibility. | Nitrolo wrote: | I can't speak for American schools, but in Germany we | were taught little of what happened after 1945, so I | wouldn't be surprised if the situation in the US would be | similar. It's a shame, I would have loved to learn more | about why the world is the way it is today. | spogbiper wrote: | > in Germany we were taught little of what happened after | 1945 | | I'd have to guess that has something to do with.. how | things went for Germany in 1945? In my US public | education we had a series of courses that covered | "recent" history as in the last 20 years or so and | another about current events. | brimble wrote: | > American kids rarely learn about _most of_ the dozens | of conflicts that have taken place since WWII, including | the ones the US was involved in. | | Added some emphasis. | | Granted I graduated about 18 years ago, but my | experience, and one shared by everyone I've talked to | about it, including those who went to school in other | states, was that our time in k-12 history classes were | spent about like this (numbers ballparked but basically | correct): | | 20% Early civilizations (largely "cradle of civilization" | focuses, rarely going past the Greeks and not covering | any of that remotely thoroughly). | | 25% The "Age of Exploration" in Europe and early American | (as in, the continents) colonial history. | | 40% US history from about 1760-1900 | | 15% Everything else. Probably half of our education of | post-WWII material concerned the Civil Rights Movement, | but it was very poorly contextualized and more of a | "greatest hits" approach (as with most of the rest, | really). World history post-WWII was hardly covered at | all. | | At the pace those classes move, there's hardly time to | cover anything but the basics, and that only by leaving | out huge swaths of time. | | I only went into college with _any_ significant grasp on | history thanks to personal interest. It 'd be entirely | possible to have passed every grade k-12 with a perfect | 4.0 and have huge blanks in one's historical knowledge. | Most of the rest was presented with so little analysis | and context that it was pretty useless (again, at the | snail's pace those classes move, and with limited ability | to push work on kids outside of class [especially, these | days, for anything that's not math or reading] there's | simply no way to cover very much in the first place, and | none of it well) | | A bunch of factors contribute to this, including: | | 1) You can only really push history _so_ fast on kids | under a certain age (go low enough and reading ability | becomes a factor, plus they start with _no_ context for | _any_ of this, and bootstrapping up to the point they can | really appreciate what 's going on takes a bunch of | time). Most kids attend at least 13 total years of school | by the time they graduate from high school, but they're | only really receptive to a good history education for, at | most, half that time--before that you're just trying to | get them the building blocks to be able to understand | stuff later, and often that doesn't even happen. This | differential-ability-at-different-ages thing is why a | curriculum will often repeat coverage of history material | in multiple years. | | 2) We used to focus more narrowly on European history & | heritage (and, broadly, the "Western" heritage of Rome | and, by way of Rome, Greece), and put that stuff directly | into things like the reading curriculum. It's no longer | acceptable to have such a narrow focus and literature | reading plans have shifted far away from that, leaving | history classes to largely stand alone while the scope of | what they're _supposed to_ try to cover has only grown. | On top of that, history classes are often less well- | resourced than others (math and English classes, | especially), notorious (especially at the high school | level, where more serious history _could_ be taught) as a | haven for teachers who are mostly in the career to coach | sports, likely to receive pushback from parents and admin | if homework or reading load creeps above the bare minimum | (that time is needed for math and English--if every | subject gave out homework like those do, kids wouldn 't | have time to sleep), and constantly at risk of angering | parents with facts (let alone even the tamest and most | uncontroversial of analysis). Everything's set up for it | to be neglected, and it is. | andrewshadura wrote: | Well said, pizdets it is. | Cthulhu_ wrote: | > Evidently, sanctions do jack shit. | | The THREAT of sanctions hasn't had the desired effect, and if | they are enacted, they will take a while before their effect | can be felt by the people involved - weeks, months, I don't | know. And if they maintain a good relationship with China they | may be able to avoid it entirely - although China may then risk | its relationship with the rest of the world, if it's found out | they're funneling money to Russia. | cryptonector wrote: | There have been sanctions on Russia since 2016, and they got | harder in 2017. The marginal value of additional sanctions is | now greatly reduced. In retrospect, imposing sanctions in | 2016 and 2017 was a bad idea. | humanwhosits wrote: | Can always impose more isolation, this isn't anything near | a full economic blockade yet | cryptonector wrote: | In fact, we don't seem to be willing to impose more | isolation. We've imposed as much as we could without | getting hurt ourselves too much. Now all options are | painful, so also not likely. Also, every additional turn | of the screws increases the risk of wider war. So, yeah, | I think it was a mistake to impose such severe sanctions | for so long over so little, especially with the court | filings from special prosecutor Durham. | bduerst wrote: | >In retrospect, imposing sanctions in 2016 and 2017 was a | bad idea. | | Why? | | Russia's response to the global Magnitsky Legislation shows | that hitting the power structure in their oligarchs' assets | works. | cryptonector wrote: | And what did that do to stop their invading Ukraine? | Nothing. Nothing at all. That means those sanctions | didn't work no matter how much they looked like they were | working. | bduerst wrote: | The Magnitsky legislation was a global sanctions response | to human rights violations in Russia[1], not the Russian | occupation of Crimea. | | The point is that they are a prime example of how | economic sanctions are effective, especially against | Russia. If anything, there should have been the threat of | more sanctions for invading, and now with countries like | Germany pulling out of energy deals and other action, we | have only to see how it plays out. | | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_legislation | cryptonector wrote: | How on Earth can you say with a straight face that they | are effective given what's happened now?! | | I mean really, that's just gaslighting now. | bduerst wrote: | Then help me understand how my comment is gaslighting? Do | you mean wikipedia is wrong? | | Or maybe you can finally answer why sanctions made things | worse? | yakshaving_jgt wrote: | What are you suggesting? That I should be patient and trust | the system? | | The system has failed. People are dying. | | This is our Hitler. | | Diplomacy was never an option. | | Putin recorded his declaration of war _before_ telling the | world that diplomacy was still an option. | | He will _only_ be stopped by swift and decisive military | action from the entirety of the free world. | | Anything short of that, and the blood of Ukrainians is on the | hands of the Western world too. | andreilys wrote: | _He will only be stopped by swift and decisive military | action from the entirety of the free world._ | | Things get complicated when you go toe to toe with a | nuclear superpower. | | What outcome do you expect when an authoritarian dictator | with nukes is cornered and being bombarded by Western | military from all sides? | mint2 wrote: | > Things get complicated when you go toe to toe with a | nuclear superpower. | | Especially one ruled by a egotistical madman with a | grudge | | That said, nato should have made huge show and noise | about the Russian preparations around Ukraine directly | causing nato to strengthen and beef up on the eastern | boarder, and upped the troops on nato states massively. | Things they are doing now. Those things should have been | done before. | | The sanction timeline is okay, the nato beefing up an | communication around it was late. | Markoff wrote: | Putin is just doing what NATO did in Serbia in 90s, I see | no difference really, yet these NATO hypocrites get upset | when someone else is doing it. | | Only countries which can speak out are those which were | against the NATO bombing and don't recognize Kosovo, | everyone else has blood on their hands even without | Ukraine. | 11101010001100 wrote: | It should be noted that Russia, as a member of the UN | security council, voted in support of international | military intervention in Kosovo. | favorited wrote: | > Putin is just doing what NATO did in Serbia in 90s | | I didn't realize that he was intervening in an ongoing | genocide | disgruntledphd2 wrote: | Ethnic cleansing. Genocide triggers a responsibility to | intervene, under the UN charter. | | Aren't euphemisms wonderful? | tablespoon wrote: | > The THREAT of sanctions hasn't had the desired effect, and | if they are enacted, they will take a while before their | effect can be felt by the people involved - weeks, months, I | don't know. | | Putin doesn't care about Russia economy the way you think he | does: | https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov- | rus...: | | > Their intentions are different from ours too. Putin's goal | is not a flourishing, peaceful, prosperous Russia, but a | Russia where he remains in charge. Lavrov's goal is to | maintain his position in the murky world of the Russian elite | and, of course, to keep his money. What we mean by | "interests" and what they mean by "interests" are not the | same. When they listen to our diplomats, they don't hear | anything that really threatens their position, their power, | their personal fortunes. | | Putin's clique actually stands to _gain_ from sanctions. They | control the Russian industry that would have to replace the | imports. | | > And if they maintain a good relationship with China they | may be able to avoid it entirely - although China may then | risk its relationship with the rest of the world, if it's | found out they're funneling money to Russia. | | They will: | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/china- | russia... | | > China on Wednesday criticized the expansion of economic | sanctions against Russia, saying that they were unlikely to | solve the Ukraine crisis and that they had the potential to | harm average people as well as the interests of Beijing. | | It's also worth noting that China has been turning inward | under Xi, so it's becoming increasingly willing to "risk its | relationship[s] with the rest of the world." | Tainnor wrote: | Yes, but that's a dangerous game Putin is playing. If the | economy continues tanking and he chooses to prolong a | possibly unpopular war with casualties on the Russian side, | he may lose his favour with the population. | | In a way, something similar seems to be happening with | Erdogan in Turkey, whose popularity is starting to wane as | an effect of the horrible economic situation. | | So, I think that long-term, sanctions may help, even though | there is no guarantee (but when is there ever?). | avastmick wrote: | From a philosophical stance, this is history repeating for the | same basic reason. 2022 AD and risk of war is still the same as | it was in 1022 AD, or 22 AD. That reason is the accumulation of | power (or by proxy, wealth) in a small set of individuals, or in | this case one person. No realtime access to information changes | this; it just makes the story of the horror unfold faster. | | Persisting with the concentration of power in individuals has | shown throughout history to have dire consequence. We continue | risking civilization on the mental health of those who already | show significant issues with their obsessive clammer for power. | The cult of the leader is toxic and, as far as I can see, | illogical and lacking evidence for benefit. | | Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from | personality cult politics? The innovation we all need for the | future are those voices. | dilyevsky wrote: | This is probably the reason in this case by where was that | epicenter of power when the previous large war broke out in | Europe - the Yugoslav Wars? If anything it was the absence of | thereof | pphysch wrote: | Which single individual was responsible for the illegal | invasion of Iraq in 2003? | eyeeyesawayyy wrote: | IMO, the vice president at the time. | | Cheney pulled a similar move of cynically planning and | instigating a war of aggression, which is why many people | consider him to be a war criminal even within the US. | | He wasn't really the head of a cult of personality, though. | He just took advantage of the gullible people who surrounded | him. | pphysch wrote: | Fair enough. But he was only VP for 2 years at time, hardly | a dictator. How does the American political selection | process need to be modified so that tyrants like Dick don't | come into power? | awb wrote: | The Senate authorized the Iraq war. A far cry from one | person. | eyeeyesawayyy wrote: | Yes, and Putin's cabinet authorized this war. | | It's always an oversimplification to attribute global | events to an individual, but sometimes you can point to | one person without whom an event could not have occurred. | awb wrote: | I think that's oversimplifying it. These national or | global decisions are a chain of events. | | Here's how the Iraq war could have been prevented: | | * VP doesn't push for it | | * President (the Commander in Chief) doesn't give the | orders to attack | | * Powell never gives the UN speech and resigns in protest | | * Senate doesn't vote to authorize war | | * Intelligence agencies push back on WMD accusations | | * Military officials push back on the strategic value of | occupying Iraq and push for alternative measures | | * UK opposes the US war effort | | * Saddam allows UN inspectors back in with unrestricted | access | | * If enough of the US was anti-war (it wasn't), threaten | impeachment | | * etc. | | Sure, leader's drive initiatives, but there's still a | chain of conditions and any break in the chain can cause | the event to stop or change course (at least | temporarily). | | I think it's important to remember that with a separation | of powers, we aren't powerless to stop our leaders. These | things only happen because we lack the will (or the | desire) to stop it. | hash872 wrote: | >Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from | personality cult politics? | | Part of the issue is populism, which is as strong on HN as | anywhere else. If I said 'hey the US & other countries should | move away from a presidential system to a parliamentary one, | because by making choosing the leader _less democratic_ it | reduces the cult of personality ', I'll get a ton of downvotes. | If I said 'the US shouldn't have primaries but instead let | party elites choose their candidates [the way the rest of the | world operates] to reduce the cult of personality', I'd get a | ton of downvotes. If I said 'hey strong political parties are | actually a good thing, and candidate-centered politics where | candidates can appeal directly to the voters without party | elites gatekeeping out demagogues is actually really bad'- I | mean, same. | | The way to 'shift away from personality cult politics' is | boring and technocratic, and we're in the middle of a populist, | anti-elites age. Less direct elections, more appointed offices | in our democracy, stronger parties, more gatekeeping & no | primaries- it's exactly what we need, and it's exactly what the | mood of the 2020s doesn't want right now | Synaesthesia wrote: | >Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from | personality cult politics? The innovation we all need for the | future are those voices. | | You should look at what anarchists have been saying in their | criticism of the state and capitalist system. | | https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/the-anarchist-faq-ed... | asdff wrote: | >Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from | personality cult politics? The innovation we all need for the | future are those voices. | | We probably slaughtered them off millions of years ago, when | the cultist tribal leader our ancestors followed identified | them as some 'other.' Tribalism is in our biology. We self | domesticated ourselves and selected for features such as | subscribing to a social hierarchy and being submissive to an | authority. We did this by refusing to breed with people who | didn't fit into our social order and also slaughtering those | groups who stood in contrast to our social order. | staticman2 wrote: | I assume to an extent at least humans are wired to form a | parasocial relationship with a tribal leader. | | It's not just a military thing- of I were to suggest Jeff Bezos | has too much control over the working conditions of 1.5 million | employees, many people will happily step in and say it would be | a great tragedy if society stepped in and reduced his ability | to order 1.5 million people around. | nickysielicki wrote: | No, this isn't all about an evil dictator named Putin being | reckless. He's a horrible person but he's not a movie villain | that's being evil to move the plot forward. This is the same | sort of cartoonish understanding that existed after 9/11 that | lead to millions of people believing that the Middle East hated | us for our freedoms instead of hating us for occupying their | countries and for historical wars. | | Much like Bin Laden and al Zawahiri told us their motivations | and nobody listened for ten years, the Kremlin told us their | motivations for this and nobody is listening: | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828 | | Reaching for a simple explanation precludes real conversation | about why this is happening. | awb wrote: | > or in this case one person | | I don't think that's true. Even autocrats need allies to stay | in power and stay safe. They might obtain those through fear, | bribes, etc., but they're still allies. | | Autocrats also help elevate those that agree with them so if | you also think Russia should return to USSR (or Russian Empire) | borders, you're going to get more power, more perks, etc. | | Just like any country there will always be nationalist leaders | and a good portion of the population that supports them. | | Russia's leaders from Putin to Stalin (and probably before -- I | don't know my Russian history that well), have always had | territorial ambitions. See: Georgia, Crimea, Afghanistan, | Poland, etc. | | Putin is the face right now, but I think it runs far deeper | than just him. | VictorPath wrote: | dang wrote: | Please don't take HN threads further into flamewar, or post | snarkily on inflammatory topics. Those are not effective ways | to make your case, and they poison the community (such as it | is). | | Also, please don't edit your comments in a way that misleads | readers after the fact--especially when the misleading thing is | making other comments look bad because their original context | is gone. That's not a nice thing to do. | | If you wouldn't mind reviewing | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the | intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful. | [deleted] | globalise83 wrote: | I think you might be off by a whole continent. | mtmail wrote: | (VictorPath first talked about Syria, before editing it to | Somalia. That's what globalise83 was referring to with | different continent) | VictorPath wrote: | nightgarden wrote: | "My troops are merely passing by" | [deleted] | [deleted] | cphoover wrote: | All of these tweets should be archived | pugworthy wrote: | UX feedback: Change from blue and green to something else a bit | more color-blind friendly. I'm moderate blue/green and couldn't | tell them apart without some careful examination. | glandium wrote: | I see a few in Dombas, a few in Crimea, but other than that | nothing in Ukraine and the most recent from 2 days ago. Is it | like that for anyone else? | majso wrote: | Yes, it seems to be not up to date | raducu wrote: | I was walking with my wife on a confined road when we saw people | running and screaming "bear". | | I immediately noticed the danger because any bear would be | comming down the sloap and there was verry little room to get out | of the way. | | My wife took her phone and was trying to get closer. | | I had to drag her and she made fun of me. | | That is untill the mama bear with her cub came running down, then | she started screaming and pannicking. I've never hit her in my | life, but that moment I felt like punching her in the face, | mostly to shut her up and make her move. | | She was not alone, a lot of people were doing the same. | | I was dumbstruck by how oblivious and heard-like people behave. | | I know I was blindsighted in the past by danger, mostly because | of my young macho self. | | But my grandpa told me countless stories about survival and being | prepared, and thankfully nowdays I try never to ignore my gut | feeling. | | If your gut feeling tells you something's not right, LISTEN and | ACT -- acting usually means move out of harms way, fast. | dang wrote: | We detached this subthread from | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30453577 since it went so | offtopic. | temp8964 wrote: | jacquesm wrote: | Bollocks. I've seen women be calm and composed and I've seen | very large guys start blubbering incoherently. | temp8964 wrote: | Of course, I would expect police / military women react | better than civilian men, but that's not meaningful | comparison. | jacquesm wrote: | Nice strawman. | raducu wrote: | It could be, the funny thing is my wife is very easily | startled -- countless times she screamed at me in our own | house that I surprised her/scared her. | | She's parranoid someone would climb our apartment building | and enter through our windows and wants us to install metal | bars. I'm mostly against it because I feel perhaps we could | use those as an escape in case of fire and because absolutely | NO ONE in our vicinity has metal bars on their windows and | that would signal we have something valuable inside. | | The same time, I have to double check she locked the front | door, because she often forgets to do it. | atdrummond wrote: | Wanting to inflict violence on a significant other for this | situation is not at all a healthy response. | raducu wrote: | Do you understand the difference between feeling/impulse and | wanting to do something? | danbruc wrote: | This would probably benefit a lot from the possibility to scrub | through a timeline and then only show all the markers within a | few hours of the selected time so that one can actually see where | there is ongoing activity. | TheJoeMan wrote: | I actually had an idea for a similar site, with that plus the | ability to show with the markers which cardinal direction is | being recorded. | persedes wrote: | Semi related, but wondering what role FAANG will play during the | sanctions. A russian friend of mine told me google pay/apple pay | were very common and preferred ways of payment in russia. Banning | those in addition to exclusion from SWIFT would have pretty wide | spread consequences for their citizens. | Cthulhu_ wrote: | Google / Apple Pay would no longer be allowed to operate there, | like how iirc a lot of US businesses were not allowed to | operate in Iran (I'm not sure what the current status of that | is). People got in trouble for that, too. | exhilaration wrote: | A quick Google search indicates that Yandex has its own payment | system: https://yoomoney.ru/?lang=en probably not equivalent to | Apple Pay but it's something. | | This is probably a great opportunity for Russian and Chinese | tech companies to gain market share as western companies are | banned from operating in Russia. | persedes wrote: | Agreed, I was surprised how wide spread electronic payments | were so there will be a big market up for grabs. Doing some | quick googling, russia seems to be among the countries with | the largest percentages of cashless transactions (~80%). | What's interesting about his explanation was that the main | motivation for people was trust, if I recall some places | wouldn't even let you pay with cash because they did not | trust it. | mensetmanusman wrote: | I hope they support a 10x upgrade to the Magnitsky act: | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act | | I wouldn't be surprised if future historians point to this | thorn in putin's side as one of the main reasons for pissing | him off enough to start a war. | | We have the technology to put a ton of pressure on the powerful | elite trying to flex their way out of bearing responsibility | for ruin they caused. | tablespoon wrote: | > We have the technology to put a ton of pressure on the | powerful elite trying to flex their way out of bearing | responsibility for ruin they caused. | | Not if they've made peace with giving up on jet-setting and | simply being kings in their own country: | | https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/us/politics/russia- | biden-... | | > And perhaps most notably, Mr. Putin and his closest aides | and partners in Moscow might not suffer much themselves from | sanctions, analysts say.... | | > Some of the hard-line nationalist men around Mr. Putin were | already on a Treasury Department sanctions list and accept | that they and their families will no longer have substantial | ties to the United States or Europe for the rest of their | lives, said Alexander Gabuev, the chair of the Russia in the | Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. | | > "They are the powerful everybodies in today's Russia," he | said. "There is a lot of posh richness. They're totally | secluded. They're the kings, and that can be secured in | Russia only." | | > Furthermore, because of their roles in state-owned | enterprises and their business ties, they are "the very guys | who are directly benefiting from the economy becoming more | insulated, more detached from the outside world," he added. | bjourne wrote: | I fear that they will overreact and ban what they see as | Russian propaganda. E.g | https://thegrayzone.com/2022/02/15/russian-un-ambassador-us-... | The Grayzone's youtube account may very well be suspended in | the coming days. It is the totally wrong strategy for dealing | with crackpots but the tech giants have not realized that yet. | chasd00 wrote: | if the tech companies "de-platform" Russia on their own does | that count as a sanction? I wouldn't think so since it wouldn't | have been ordered by a government. I wonder how Russia would | react to that, cyber warfare against the company denying them | service? | | edit: after thinking about it, the above seems like punishing | the Russian people more than the Russian government which | shouldn't be done IMO | kgeist wrote: | Banning ordinary Russians from using American services would | remove the last place where Russians can express their | opinions freely, playing into Putin's hands. | skrtskrt wrote: | Well sanctions generally affect the average citizen the | hardest already. | | It's not like government or military leaders are the ones | that can't get basic medical supplies or food in a | sanctioned country. | gutitout wrote: | Why can't they spin up a blog? Also, as an American, I | don't think those FAANG places are a safe space for | "expressing opinions freely". The boys (bots) will come. | kgeist wrote: | An independent blog is easily banned. In fact, most of | them are already. Platforms like Facebook host millions | of pages and use https so it's not possible to ban | individual pages, only the whole thing. And they've been | hesitant to ban whole social networks because of possible | discontent | lghh wrote: | It's a lot easier to DDOS a blog than it is to DDOS | facebook. | kgeist wrote: | It's also likely that Putin will ban them himself as "symmetric | response" against cutting SWIFT. Always at the expense of | ordinary people. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-02-24 23:00 UTC)