[HN Gopher] Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?
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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?
Author : bpierre
Score : 36 points
Date : 2022-02-26 21:28 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (ourworldindata.org)
(TXT) w3m dump (ourworldindata.org)
| Gravityloss wrote:
| Quite a lot of repetition in the text.
|
| Why wouldn't the learning curve apply to nuclear power? There the
| fuel cost is almost negligible. I think the large unit size
| hampers learning - less iterations per decade.
| [deleted]
| pfdietz wrote:
| Also, some of the parts are mature technology. We already built
| lots of steam turbines before building them for nuclear plants.
| [deleted]
| aaron695 wrote:
| edent wrote:
| One interesting thing that I didn't see mentioned in the
| (excellent) article - is that renewables allow for local and
| hyper-local electricity generation. With any system, there will
| be transmission loss. But when the solar panels are in the field
| down the street, or on your roof, that becomes negligible.
|
| It also touches a little on the installation time. Nuclear power
| stations takes years to build - even after the tortuous planning
| process. Wind farms are quicker to install. A solar array is
| almost instantaneous by comparison. The panels on my roof took a
| week - and most of that was dealing with scaffolding and my dodgy
| wiring.
|
| If you can install solar panels day-after-day, you benefit from
| an increased learning rate. And, frankly, the training for how to
| do it isn't arduous. Nuclear might be the future - but it
| requires a highly trained workforce and constant maintenance. All
| of which are expensive.
| tonmoy wrote:
| Electricity transmission costs are really negligible. You will
| never be able to produce enough power just from solar panels on
| your roof, and the cost and complexity of needing to maintain
| and repair installations at each house may offset the
| negligible gain obtained from getting rid of the transmission
| loss
| ianschmitz wrote:
| There are plenty of people making enough power just from
| solar panels on their roof.
|
| It doesn't work everywhere of course and requires some form
| of storage or offsetting by powering the grid during the day.
| tamaharbor wrote:
| Unfortunately you wind up paying for your local system as
| well as the grid backup.
| tehsauce wrote:
| Not if they are using electric air/water heating and
| driving an electric car.
| rayiner wrote:
| This is a funny article considering that there's literally a war
| going on where Germany has been hesitant to oppose Russia because
| it's move to renewables left it highly dependent on Russian gas.
| https://fortune.com/2022/02/25/ukraine-anger-sanctions-germa...
| ManuelKiessling wrote:
| Sorry, what? If we hadn't any renewables at all, we would be
| even MORE dependent on Russian gas.
| xyzzyz wrote:
| Yes, if you had no renewables, but closed coal and nuclear
| plant anyway, you'd be more dependent on Russian gas, sure.
| Ygg2 wrote:
| Yeah but shutting down nuclear power after Fukushima is akin
| to jumping of a building in Germany, because these was a
| tsunami in Jagan.
| nautilius wrote:
| Fukushima was the latest but hardly the only incident. One
| of them caused fallout all across Europe. Hint: it was just
| occupied by Russian forces.
| Melio wrote:
| Why?
|
| One thing has nothing to do with the other.
|
| Germany is pushing for renewable and has not transitioned to
| it.
|
| It is depending on Russia for 30% or so in gas. It has this
| problem because the transition is not done and Fukushima pushed
| the faster end of nuclear power.
|
| Which is understandable when you remember Tschernobyl and how
| dense populated Germany is.
|
| I drive by isar nuclear power plant by train since I remember.
| While it looks interesting it's also frightening when you see
| how little real knowledge or excercise anyone had when
| Tschernobyl happened and when Fukushima happened.
| tinco wrote:
| Why do you mention Chernobyl and Fukushima together?
| Fukushima basically only did some economic damage, Chernobyl
| was a catastrophe.
|
| Also given how densely populated Germany is, it's wildly
| irresponsible that they operate so many coal plants, it's
| literally killing thousands every year. Even if they had a
| Chernobyl style disaster every 10 years it would still be a
| lot safer than the way they're generating power right now.
| fivea wrote:
| > Why do you mention Chernobyl and Fukushima together?
| Fukushima basically only did some economic damage,
| Chernobyl was a catastrophe.
|
| Both Chernobyl and Fukushima were disasters.
|
| It just so happened that Fukushima also was the final
| straw.
| Gravityloss wrote:
| Germany has installed renewables, has shuttered nuclear power
| and increased gas usage.
|
| If it had only installed renewables and also kept nuclear
| power, the situation would be a lot better.
| ipaddr wrote:
| For greenhouse gas emissions and this situation with Russia
| rootusrootus wrote:
| Are you saying that Germany's situation, which seems to have
| confounding factors, completely refutes the objective price of
| different energy sources?
| anarazel wrote:
| The move to renewables in Germany slowed down drastically since
| the mid 2010s. Largely due to bad policy, not cost development.
|
| In German, but look e.g. at the third graph in
| https://www.wind-energie.de/themen/zahlen-und-fakten/deutsch...
| . Shows the total and newly installed wind power (better than
| the second graph showing the number of new turbines, because
| turbines have gotten bigger).
|
| For solar, look at:
| https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/29264/umfrage...
| the numbers for 2020/2021 unfortunately are missing. They're
| better, but by far not back to 2010-2012.
| yodsanklai wrote:
| How much would renewable cost if it wasn't supported by fossil
| fuel (e.g. for extracting and processing the resources needed to
| build solar panel)?
| beebeepka wrote:
| How much would fossil fuels cost if they weren't supported by
| all kinds of horrible sacrifices we have to make?
|
| Pollution and wars sure are worth it!
| rootusrootus wrote:
| Does the analysis include those same costs in the fossil fuel
| price? It takes a _lot_ of oil to find, extract, and process
| oil.
| fivea wrote:
| > How much would renewable cost if it wasn't supported by
| fossil fuel (e.g. for extracting and processing the resources
| needed to build solar panel)?
|
| I find your comment pointless, given that in a not so distant
| past the bulk of energy was produced from fossil fuel.
|
| Thankfully, the world is transitioning away from that, and at a
| considerable speed. We went from propaganda selling the lie
| that renewables were a passing fad to a point in time where
| entire countries register days where all their energy needs
| come from renewables and even overproduce energy, leading to
| negative energy costs.
| credit_guy wrote:
| Here's the simplest way to get to net zero: solar, wind,
| batteries, natural gas, then hydrogen.
|
| Solar and wind are cheap, but intermittent. Batteries can help
| store energy from day to night. To help store energy from summer
| to winter, they need to become 1000 times cheaper, which is not
| going to happen. For that you need peaker plants. Initially
| methane-based, later they can be converted to hydrogen.
|
| It's as simple as that.
| fivea wrote:
| > Solar and wind are cheap, but intermittent. Batteries can
| help store energy from day to night.
|
| You don't need batteries per se, only energy storage systems.
|
| Pumped storage, pressurized air, flywheels, ultracapacitors,
| and of course chemical batteries. Pumped storage and compressed
| air systems store orders of magnitude more energy and power
| than batteries.
| ipaddr wrote:
| Nuclear power can offer consistent base loads to power grids.
| jdauriemma wrote:
| Can someone ELI5 why renewables are more expensive for consumers
| where I live? In Pennsylvania my electric utility allows me to
| choose my supplier. Invariably, the renewables are more costly
| than the fossil fuels. What gives? Is this just a regional
| phenomenon?
| gameswithgo wrote:
| putting variable inputs like solar and wind on the grid makes
| the grid more expensive to manage.
| microdrum wrote:
| Same reason internet bandwidth if more abundant and cheaper
| than ever, but your Comcast bill seems to actually only go up.
|
| Local rooftop solar, with no reliance on utility monopolies, is
| the most important thing in the global energy picture, and I'm
| afraid it isn't even close. And I'm pro nuclear. But it's past
| time to recognize that it's the distribution monopolists that
| are the problem. Solar and batteries free you from that.
| jdauriemma wrote:
| Let's stipulate that I don't know why broadband bills are
| getting more expensive, if you don't mind.
| dwighttk wrote:
| That is what 5 year olds around you understand?
| [deleted]
| xyzzyz wrote:
| Renewables are cheap per kWh, but they are only intermittently
| available, and since storage is basically nonexistent at grid
| scale, these kWh are only worth anything if there is demand for
| them, and are useless when there is demand, but sun is not
| shining or wind is not blowing. In effect, you still need to
| have some other way to produce electricity on demand, when
| there is no renewable supply. What's worse is that if these
| more flexible sources of electricity (typically coal or gas)
| cannot compete with renewables when they do produce, they need
| to charge much more when renewables are out, in order to stay
| profitable -- otherwise, they'd close, and we'd wouldn't be
| able to meet the demand at all times. This would result in
| customers getting disconnected with very little notice, making
| them very unhappy.
|
| To sum up, it's more expensive, because even as renewables grow
| in installed capacity, we cannot reduce installed capacity of
| fossil sources on 1-1 parity, and also we pay more per fossil
| generated kWh than we used to in all-fossil grid. Cheap grid-
| scale storage would solve this, but it's no going to happen any
| time soon.
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