[HN Gopher] Likely that Swiss will freeze Russian assets
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Likely that Swiss will freeze Russian assets
Author : nikhizzle
Score : 104 points
Date : 2022-02-27 20:20 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
| 55555 wrote:
| Is this unprecedented for Switzerland? Does anyone know? I know
| Switzerland as a bank that accepted Nazi depositors during WWII.
| aemreunal wrote:
| https://archive.fo/baj7M
| monkeybutton wrote:
| What I find interesting is that the sanctions of Russia and
| support of Ukraine is accelerating faster and faster every day.
| Had the initial plan of decapitating the government and
| installing a puppet who signs a peace agreement with Russia
| worked, I doubt we'd be seeing the same level of support as now.
| Apparently the EU is now giving them jets in addition to all the
| small arms, fuel and anti-tank weapons. With all the economic
| sanctions it seems like they want to collapse the Russian economy
| and instigate regime change from the inside. Putin made a risky
| bet by attacking Ukraine, but the EU collapsing Russia with all
| their nukes still hanging around and hoping the next government
| in charge is more stable is a way more risky bet.
| pixl97 wrote:
| You mean Putin threatening the west with his nukes a few times
| a day is not a risk?
| liuliu wrote:
| It is a risky bet (and unlikely the next one after Putin would
| be any better). But it is also a deterrance. Anyone who would
| want to initiate a war in EU needs to think twice (if EU is
| successful this time) after this.
| kaycebasques wrote:
| Regardless of politics I think it's objective to say we're seeing
| a major increase in the weaponization of the global financial
| system. Perhaps the most important second order effect
| (assuming/praying that the war ends very soon) is a faster de-
| dollarization in China.
|
| A question: does Switzerland have any prior precedent of actions
| like this? I thought they were neutral?
| cjbgkagh wrote:
| It's like society has progressed very quickly from financially
| canceling people to financially cancelling countries
| lm28469 wrote:
| We also progressed from annihilating countries to financially
| "cancelling" countries. Financial war is still better than
| total war
|
| You can also ask Cuba what they think about the "new" aspect
| of financial cancellation, or 1920s Germany
| sva_ wrote:
| > _A question: does Switzerland have any prior precedent of
| actions like this? I thought they were neutral?_
|
| They aren't that neutral.
|
| > _Close cooperation has also been established in the area of
| international sanctions. As of 2006, Switzerland has adopted
| five EU sanctions that were instituted outside of the United
| Nations. Those affected the former Republic of Yugoslavia
| (1998), Myanmar (2000), Zimbabwe (2002), Uzbekistan (2006) and
| Belarus (2006)._ [0]
|
| There were many more since.
|
| > _de-dollarization in China_
|
| I'm not sure how you mean this (which side), but I think a de-
| dollarization in China would be terrible. Countries will still
| rely on their manufacturing etc, so sanctioning them out of
| SWIFT would probably just weaken SWIFT, since it'd encourage
| them to have their own system (since it must exist by necessity
| of the world's dependence on Chinese stuff). These sort of
| sanctions only work because there's just a small fraction/party
| being excluded, I think.
|
| [0]
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland%E2%80%93European_U...
| outside1234 wrote:
| There is no neutral. Either you oppose evil or you are
| implicitly for it.
| mrtksn wrote:
| It's nothing new, it was always like that. Ask Iran, Cuba or
| DPRK.
|
| It makes all sense in the world, if you are not a cooperating
| entity you are cut off from the network and you are free to do
| your own thing.
|
| Obviously, you can be bullied into things that might not be in
| your own interest but you are still free to asses the pro's and
| con's and break of if it's better for you.
| sto_hristo wrote:
| I don't believe in these sanctions. Russians are born in misery,
| live in misery, die in misery; don't look up their pensions -
| it's depressing. This has been their life since forever now. They
| are more cattle (in the literal sense) than people at this point.
| The ones that actually matter in Russia might take a cut, but
| nothing effectively.
|
| The whole approach of the West is wrong. They use reason against
| someone that has never had any reason at all. Can't use poetry to
| communicate with a donkey; the stick is the proper tool.
| cameronh90 wrote:
| We can't use stick against someone pointing thousands of nukes
| at you.
| staticautomatic wrote:
| It's a stick the Russian people will have to wield so long as
| the Russian government has nukes.
| monkeybutton wrote:
| This is a terrible take on the good people living there.
|
| This is the type of thing I expect French aristocrats were
| saying to each other about the peasants in the weeks / months
| leading up to them getting their heads chopped off:
|
| >born in misery, live in misery, die in misery; don't look up
| their pensions - it's depressing. This has been their life
| since forever now. They are more cattle
| [deleted]
| gloriana wrote:
| I truly hope the same measures will be taken against US or other
| nation's acts of aggression in the future. e.g. Yemen,
| Afghanistan,Iraq. This is a great precedent to set.
| 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
| You don't think the war in Afghanistan was justified? After
| 9/11 the US invoked NATO article 5 and allies went to
| Afghanistan with the US.
| MrRiddle wrote:
| Isn't it the Saudi who did 9/11?
| dumdumdumdum wrote:
| Just because you've invoked some article amongst your buddies
| doesn't make a war justified. The hubris is astounding.
| jl6 wrote:
| It is dark comedy indeed to see Russia's apologists defend
| their actions with whataboutism about the US war in Iraq. Guess
| what, we think that one was illegitimate too. Good work
| throwing the Ukraine invasion on the pile of unjust wars. Bush
| and Putin can sing a Nuremberg duet together.
| happytoexplain wrote:
| How can they distinguish good from bad justifications for
| aggression? Russia's current actions seem to be at one extreme,
| while, say, responding to an attack from another government
| would be on the other extreme (barring extenuating
| circumstances), while the US usually has an ( _ostensible_ )
| justification somewhere in the middle.
|
| Afghanistan after 9/11 is a good of example of something that
| was hard for another western nation to argue against the
| justification for _starting_ (how it went is another story).
| nsonha wrote:
| "good aggression"
|
| Be aware that most people cannot read Chinese or Russian, and
| as such their whole world perspective is fed by an one sided
| narrative.
|
| I suggest you listen to these[1][2] talks, and Putin's
| speech[3] on NATO expansion in Munich in 2007. Pozner[1]
| pointed out that up to 2007, Putin really tried to be friend
| with the West, including asking to join NATO.
|
| Of course they were "the enemy".
|
| [1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7Ng75e5gQ
|
| [2]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
|
| [3]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ58Yv6kP44
| bcrosby95 wrote:
| > including asking to join NATO.
|
| Did he? All I could come up with this:
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-
| head-s...
|
| According to this person he didn't ask to join, he asked
| why he wasn't asked to join, and wanted to skip the process
| that countries-that-don't-matter have to go through.
| happytoexplain wrote:
| Please try not to misquote me.
|
| I made no reference to good aggression, only justifiable
| aggression. It's fine to form an argument that no such
| thing exists, but it's unrealistic to despise the man who
| returns a punch.
|
| As for Russia's reasonable concerns about the West and the
| nigh-impossibility of objectively or thoroughly observing
| foreign points of view - both are true and important, yet
| neither serve in the least to justify attacking Ukraine's
| capital.
| prox wrote:
| That sounds great until you figure out that Putin has a
| reason for everything. The problem is not so much Putin, or
| even his viewpoint that Russia doesn't feel safe (I can
| even see the merit of such a stance) , but the fact that is
| that he is not accountable to his people.
|
| If he was a normal president and with a functioning
| democracy, I doubt we would even be at the current
| situation. I saw the videos of Putin with his advisor (the
| Spy chief) and that was an exercise in "tell me what I want
| to hear."
| lm28469 wrote:
| > Putin's speech[3] on NATO expansion in Munich in 2007
|
| Ukraine would never had joined NATO because it was an
| active war zone anyways. Putin didn't have to do anything
| to avoid Ukraine joining NATO.
|
| Listening to his current explanations for the invasion
| doesn't make him sound like a good guy no matter the
| language or the perspective.
|
| > Putin really tried to be friend with the West
|
| And relations were relatively good until he decided to
| invade Ukraine, he just severed every diplomatic bridges
| and every single chances of progress for the next
| decades(s).
|
| Putin's not the Devil but he clearly is the aggressor here.
| Ukraine was a sovereign state with a democratically elected
| government. You'd be hard pressed to use the "b-bu-but it's
| both sides" rhetoric here.
| shadowgovt wrote:
| > How can they distinguish good from bad justifications for
| aggression?
|
| On a case-by-case basis. As you note, the international
| community probably wouldn't have reacted against the US
| regarding Afghanistan (and probably should have regarding
| Iraq).
| rnk wrote:
| The us attacking Iraq on false pretenses was clearly unlawful.
| Afghanistan is different, but would appreciate other views.
| Tthe country (and bin Laden and others) were clearly behind
| 9/11. Do you see it as possible for there to be a legal or
| lawful war between countries when one attacks the other?
|
| Saudia Arabia attacking Houthis and Yemen seems like a clear
| illegal action. At least the ongoing attacks.
| thriftwy wrote:
| The more sanctions there are, the more stuff Putin has to conquer
| to use as bargaining chips to lift those sanctions.
|
| I just wonder how this is supposed to work in any other way. They
| ensure that the war won't stop because Putin has already faced
| some consequences on the domestic front and how he has to show
| some black ink.
| gerikson wrote:
| What?
|
| The sanctions can be lifted when Russia withdraws from Ukraine,
| pays reparations, and is bound by international agreements not
| to do something like this again.
| wereHamster wrote:
| At this point, would anyone trust Putin?
| xdennis wrote:
| That's the thing. I'm not sure how this can end if the
| oligarchs don't overthrow him.
| gus_massa wrote:
| > _withdraws from Ukraine_
|
| This can be verified.
|
| > _pays reparations_
|
| This can be verified.
|
| > _is bound by international agreements not to do something
| like this again_
|
| This is not worth the paper it's written on, but perhaps it
| may be the only way and reach a peace soon and make
| everyone pretend to be friends while preparing for the next
| encounter.
| andy_ppp wrote:
| This is the issue; where is the end game here for Putin, I
| can't see a way out for him and the people who surround
| him.
|
| My psychological analysis of him basically says Putin is
| the king of the gangsters and he knows as such he needs to
| keep everyone scared and also demonstrate his power. The
| way you get to be Putin is to behave in the most extreme
| way possible when crossed, this pattern is likely to
| continue one way or another.
|
| We should seriously think about something we can do to give
| the gangster a way out (appease his ego while he in return
| withdraws). I know this sounds weak but the other options
| are really very bad, a disconnected Russia with loads of
| nukes with a leader with an increasingly extreme
| disposition that blames the West for all his problems
| (because Putin has stopped being able to be wrong). Tell me
| this situation I've outlined is fine because to me it
| certainly means sabotaging of the West at the least and
| nuclear war at worst?
|
| That he will be replaced by people in the Kremlin is
| extremely unlikely in my opinion and who is to say his
| replacement will be anything less than consistent with the
| Cold War mentality Putin seems to be spouting.
| [deleted]
| teaearlgraycold wrote:
| I think one way out is for Putin to get scapegoated by
| his inner circle. He's only the dictator of Russia as
| long as they're happy.
| andy_ppp wrote:
| I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around
| Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs -
| you think they give him 50% of their money because they
| really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?
| JonChesterfield wrote:
| I assume the working theory is that the KGB are not
| delighted with the present circumstances.
| xdennis wrote:
| My understanding (from reading All the Kremlin's Men), is
| that Putin's strength is overstated in the West and that
| he rules with the approval of the oligarchs. If they turn
| on him, he might just die from an undiagnosed tumor.
| thriftwy wrote:
| They will turn on him to lose the war and pay through the
| nose, and then continue to suffer all the consequences in
| hopes that it ends eventually?
|
| It sounds like a semi-plausible option but a bad plan.
| livueta wrote:
| On one hand you're right, but on the other - that sort of
| thing isn't exactly unprecedented. Everyone was terrified
| of Beria until they weren't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wik
| i/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_...
| askonomm wrote:
| I think his way out should be in an electric chair, like
| all other terrorists.
| [deleted]
| _ph_ wrote:
| There is only one thing he needs to do to lift the sanctions,
| and that is independant from his conquests. That is: leave the
| Ukraine. Actually, it is the other way around. The less damage
| is done, the more likely is a quick lift of sanctions.
| thriftwy wrote:
| There's no legal mechanism which will automatically terminate
| these sanctions (which, I believe, are placed by different
| entities in ad hoc basis, as opposed as centralized control)
| over Putin leaving Ukraine.
|
| If Putin leaves Ukraine, the asset freezing and all the other
| stuff stays, and _may be_ discussed later.
|
| That's why he won't leave Ukraine even under heavy discomfort
| of maintaining that presence.
| _ph_ wrote:
| There is no need for such a mechanism. But the quicker he
| leaves Ukraine and the less damage he causes, the more
| likely it is, that the West would relax the sanctions.
|
| (I could easily imagine opening up North Stream 2 quickly,
| if the money paid for the gas would go to Ukraine until the
| damages are compensated for)
| newaccount74 wrote:
| I'm pretty sure most countries would be eager to lift the
| sanctions rather quickly, since they are losing a lot of
| business due to the sanctions. If Putin really stopped the
| invasion, then the sanctions would probably be undone
| rather quickly.
| Mountain_Skies wrote:
| If it becomes apparent that Russia is going to stay in
| Ukraine, business interests will immediately start
| prodding their governments for special exceptions. There
| will start off on humanitarian grounds, like medicines
| and medical devices but we've seen with sanctions on
| other countries that over time these exceptions grow,
| often due to financial interests of the well connected.
| You'll probably never be able to export cheese to Russia
| but lots of things with dual uses will get approved for
| export and then used for both uses even though only
| approved for one use.
| NoPie wrote:
| I think that Putin has crossed the line and the EU will
| not give up sanctions easily.
|
| The EU just announced that will provide financing for
| fighter jets that will be given to Ukraine. The EU
| president also said that will accept Ukraine in the EU
| (with due improvements of course). They are really big
| announcements. Everything has changed during these days.
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