[HN Gopher] Sabre ends distribution agreement with Aeroflot
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Sabre ends distribution agreement with Aeroflot
Author : pseudolus
Score : 103 points
Date : 2022-03-03 15:18 UTC (7 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
| okl wrote:
| Not difficult to guess that Russia's entire economy will be toast
| in a matter of weeks, regardless if the sanction stay how they
| are or become more strict. The supply chain disruption and knock-
| on effects must be enormous. Be it specialized software products
| for which there only exists a single supplier or even just x86
| CPUs. (Intel/AMD don't export to Russia anymore)
| miohtama wrote:
| It is not just Russia. Europe and the UK will suffer as well as
| fuel and gas prices will raise significantly (2x?) of already
| high levels.
| okl wrote:
| We'll have to see that. For the short-medium term it will be
| a big pain. Europe I think can transition to some green
| (nuclear?) energy solutions in the next few years. Russia on
| the other hand -- if you exclude oil, gas, metals, there is
| not much left that the world buys from them.
| martimarkov wrote:
| Yes the world (not just EU, UK and the "western" world, China
| and India are impacted as well) would suffer in general,
| russia's economy will be wiped.
|
| And the prices of oil will normalise fairly quickly when ppl
| stop with the panic as supply is currently not affected. It
| might be in the future but there are mechanisms and levers
| the world can use.
| humanwhosits wrote:
| Raw supply is not affected but the supply chain on the
| finance side is, which can create artificial delivery
| shocks.
| onemoresoop wrote:
| If Russian supply is cut how do you see prices normalize?
| Or you simply mean they'll be stable but high?
| actuator wrote:
| I think China is big enough that it can help ease the
| economic cost on Russia. There are a lot of natural
| resources, defence and research tech, that China would be
| glad to get in return as well.
|
| India on the other hand has a far weaker hand as they don't
| have the economic muscle to challenge the Western sanctions
| and they are dependent on Russia for military hardware. It
| seems mind boggling that they are not self reliant on
| defence equipment, even smaller ones. They can't replace
| all of that hardware with stuff from West as well, as that
| will be too costly.
| GiorgioG wrote:
| > I think China is big enough that it can help ease the
| economic cost on Russia
|
| They're not going to help Russia - they're going to
| exploit the situation and demand deals that are barely
| tolerable for Russia.
| okl wrote:
| > as supply is currently not affected
|
| As far as I have kept track, not a single barrel has
| disappeared from the market due to sanctions until now.
| axg11 wrote:
| How much would it cost to subsidize natural gas prices back
| to previous prices? Is this feasible? Would be very
| interested in an order of magnitude estimate.
|
| Innocent people are dying as the result of an unprovoked war.
| Sanctions on Russia will inevitably have some negative
| economic consequences for the West - the question is, what is
| the total price of these consequences?
| miohtama wrote:
| In the case of a war, rationing is more efficient tham
| subsidizing of necessities. This prevents hoarding and
| further price runs.
| Lascaille wrote:
| >rationing is more efficient tham subsidizing
|
| You can't ration energy in a democracy while
| simultaneously being staunchly opposed to the development
| of new energy generation infrastructure. No electorate
| will tolerate that.
|
| It is as pure an example of 'you're not doing your job'
| as I can imagine. One of the core roles of government is
| to guarantee food and energy security for its populace.
| ben_w wrote:
| I think the plan now is precisely to develop that
| infrastructure.
| kavalg wrote:
| and water
| protomyth wrote:
| Not in the near term, but I assume election wise the US
| will be back to full fracking and natural gas exports will
| resume from the US. Over $5/gallon pump prices are not a
| winning election strategy in the US.
| pfarrell wrote:
| I definitely don't disagree with what you said. It
| reminded me of the second Democratic debate in 2007.
| Candidate Mike Gravel said something that stuck with me
| [0] You only see $3. Just watch those
| wheels turn. There's another $4, which is what we spend
| to keep American troops around the world to keep the
| price. So you're paying more than seven
| dollars a gallon; you just don't know it.
|
| 0: https://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/03/us/politics/03demsd
| ebate_...
| okl wrote:
| The thing with subsidies is that you just increase the
| price people are willing to pay for the same amount which
| will make the problem even worse since there is a
| bottleneck on the supply side.
| justapassenger wrote:
| I'm personally happy to pay more taxes to help offset that.
|
| Western world spent trillions of dollars to try to offset
| impact from the virus. It's not a bad idea to spend even few
| more, to stop prospects of next world war/cold war and stop a
| madman who openly wants to rebuilt one of the most evil
| empires in the history.
| daliusd wrote:
| It is more complex. Fuel is heavily taxed in Europe so double
| price will be not double, maybe 50% increase. Still bad but
| not too bad. Gas (as not fuel for cars but for other means)
| will be different problem from country to country or even
| from town to town (e.g. my town might be gas independent by
| 2023 heating season)
| rjzzleep wrote:
| My mother had an energy bill that was 3x higher than before.
| This shit is funny when you're in the valley and you have
| 6000 in pocket money to burn on stuff, but in Europe that
| means some peoples monthly rental expenses doubled.
|
| It's actually an existential threat for a lot of people. The
| German leadership just like the USA is so far detached from
| the normal population that they won't care, and the normal
| population in Germany isn't like in the middle east, so they
| will likely take it with some complaints.
|
| But since you can't easily get loans like in the US in
| Germany I wonder what that will mean for people that can no
| longer afford their bills though. I've seen people being
| taken to jail in Germany for unpaid 20 Euro bills or not
| paying public transit.
| aivisol wrote:
| > It's actually an existential threat for a lot of people.
| I am sorry but you have your priorities wrong. The
| existential threat to all of us is sitting in Kremlin and
| we must stop him now. I am in Europe, winters in my country
| are cold with lows to -30 celsius and our the government
| has been shortsighted/corrupt for decades that we depend on
| Russian gas for heating for full 100%. But I will support
| cutting off that pipeline without thinking a second even if
| it costs me triple or whatever, or will be installing a
| wood stove. I have been of the other side of the Iron
| curtain for good part of my life, and believe me, energy
| bill will be your least worry.
| laurent92 wrote:
| They might be happy that their carbon independence finally
| becomes a thing and that their doomsday finally reifies.
| Worsening the sanctions until Russia cuts the gas is
| exactly aligned with their view of the world, and the worst
| thing that would happen would be peace.
| xattt wrote:
| Here's a Catch-22 situation I'm facing as a result of these
| sanctions: My family emigrated to Canada a number of years ago,
| but we have an elderly relative living in Moscow with moderate
| dementia who we've been supporting remotely with live-in care.
|
| We can't bring them here because the dementia will be worsened
| by the change in environment (and the astronomical cost of
| health insurance until OHIP kicks in), but leaving them to live
| out their days in their apartment seems like it's becoming a
| non-option as well, given the looming collapse of the economy
| and the likelihood that basic supplies won't be available.
|
| What's one to do?
| ChuckNorris89 wrote:
| _> What's one to do?_
|
| All Russian population revolt on the streets against Putin
| and overthrow him. There will be mass casualties form the
| clashes with the military but sitting around under the fear
| of his iron fist and dying from mass poverty and shortages
| won't help you either.
|
| Look what happened to Nicolae Ceausescu and the Romanian
| revolution of 1989. Hundreds of people died on the streets
| trying to overthrow that tyrant but it happened. No dictator
| rules forever. The population has to be willing to sacrifice
| themselves for the greater good and a brighter future.
| baq wrote:
| Book a flight via Serbia. They're charging an arm and a leg
| for being a bottleneck via which you can transfer to western
| airlines.
| agumonkey wrote:
| I'm sorry for the dilemma but only one option seems liveable.
| Hope that change of environment will be handled and
| compensated by being closer in a safer place.
|
| Good luck
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| Bite the bullet and expatriate them if you can handle the
| costs before your transport window closes [1], versus them
| declining destitute in their home land where you have no
| control if the situation deteriorates rapidly. I'd plead your
| case to whomever in the Canadian [2] and Russian governments
| will listen due to the situation and it being a compassionate
| case/allowance (providing elderly care close to family).
|
| A sibling comment indicates OHIP wait periods no longer
| exist. Flex whatever social and consular assistance you can
| get, this is what they're there for. Don't be afraid to say
| "I need help, what can you do to help?" I'd expect more
| flexibility and support available during an active conflict.
|
| EDIT: "4 independent sources I have say that the Russian
| border shuts down in <48, probably less than 24 hours. If you
| are in Russia and you can leave, leave now." -- March 3rd,
| 2022 9am [3]
|
| [1] https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-mission-
| russia/
|
| [2] https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/russia (Consular
| assistance, click Assistance on horizontal nav->"Moscow"
| dropdown)
|
| [3] https://buttondown.email/guzey/archive/4-independent-
| sources...
| xattt wrote:
| I can't thank everyone in this thread so I'm replying to
| the top comment, but this is all amazing advice. I will see
| how my family will want to move forward.
|
| Thank you very much to everybody.
| jlokier wrote:
| The OHIP 3-month waiting period was suspended in 2020 due to
| COVID-19. They're going to restore it at some point, but for
| now it looks like there's no waiting period:
|
| From https://www.ontario.ca/page/apply-ohip-and-get-health-
| card
|
| "There is no longer a waiting period for OHIP coverage. If
| you are eligible, you will have immediate health insurance
| coverage. Find out if you qualify."
| speakspokespok wrote:
| In the short term you could have the elderly relative + a
| caregiver, be that family or other, live in one of the
| tourist areas of Mexico. It's easy access to quality
| healthcare and cost of renting is very reasonable.
| 52-6F-62 wrote:
| There are options for interim health care!
|
| https://settlement.org/ontario/health/ohip-and-health-
| insura...
|
| https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-
| citizenship/se...
| 52-6F-62 wrote:
| Just wanted to add that people from Ukraine will be
| considered for refugee status as well:
| https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-
| citizenship/ne...
| okl wrote:
| Sorry, I don't know. But _if_ Russia decides to "build a
| wall" and limit emigration, then there might not be any
| choice left.
| kofejnik wrote:
| Moscow will be relatively Ok, regardless; and you dollars
| will buy a lot more help with the new exchange rate
| ska wrote:
| I think it's a pretty strong assumption that they will be
| able to get dollars to them, or maintain good communication
| with their relative and/or emergency services if needed.
| abrowne wrote:
| If they can still transfer them!
| toomanyrichies wrote:
| I don't have any advice to add, I just wanted to say that I'm
| truly sorry this is happening to your family.
| ericd wrote:
| Which route will lead to fewer regrets? If you can identify
| it, do that one, even if it's expensive/painful.
| DominikPeters wrote:
| OHIP doesn't have a waiting period anymore. But travelling
| from Moscow to Ontario may prove difficult.
| jeromegv wrote:
| I have no idea why you are saying that. OHIP still has a
| waiting period of 3 months.
| jlokier wrote:
| From https://www.ontario.ca/page/apply-ohip-and-get-
| health-card
|
| "There is no longer a waiting period for OHIP coverage.
| If you are eligible, you will have immediate health
| insurance coverage. Find out if you qualify."
| MattGaiser wrote:
| Seems like the environment is going to change massively one
| way or another.
| actuator wrote:
| If this is the case, then at what point a coup/ground movement
| throws Putin away. A dictator can only stay as long in the
| power until he can keep people around him happy, even
| financially. There are young conscripts dying in a war in a
| state where many have brotherly relations with. At what point
| it is not just easy to turn those weapons on Putin.
| ploika wrote:
| A lot of Russians remember when their country collapsed in
| front of their eyes. It's probably fair to say that even
| Putin's harshest critics would be hesitant to go through that
| twice in 30 years. Not that I'm defending him by any means,
| just that (by design) getting rid of him will be very ugly
| and never easy.
| okl wrote:
| At this point, but this is my personal impression since I
| obviously don't have any data on the matter, I guess that
| there are enough zombies in Russia to keep this war going
| until their soldiers literally starve to death.
| trollied wrote:
| Another thing that's going to hit them is that the leasing
| companies are looking to get their leased aircraft back:
| https://airlinegeeks.com/2022/03/02/lessors-look-to-repatria...
|
| Things are not looking great for their airline industry.
| notahacker wrote:
| You can add bans to fly to or over most of Europe, likely
| Russian-imposed restrictions or total ban on flights leaving
| Russia and most of the parts supply chain refusing to serve
| them to the list of woes.
|
| Given the amount of flights they're currently unable to
| operate, losing some payment obligations to aircraft lessors
| may be almost be a relief.
|
| (The Russian government has threatened to "nationalise" some
| aircraft in retaliation, but the problem with doing that is you
| get your own aircraft repossessd when they leave Russia, even
| if trade with Russia reverts to near-normal after the war)
| diebeforei485 wrote:
| Would other airlines want to lease these aircraft, or will the
| lessors be left holding the bag?
| adolph wrote:
| Pretty sure this is also not good news for the leasing
| companies and the airplane manufacturers (aside from many of
| them making it up on increased defense spending).
|
| _The European country most exposed to this risk is certainly
| Ireland. According to the Irish Times newspaper, the leasing
| company Aercap owns 149 aircraft operated in Russia and SMBC
| Aviation Capital has 34 jets leased to Russian operators._ [0]
|
| _AerCap is the world 's largest aircraft leasing company after
| acquiring International Lease Finance Corporation in 2014. As
| of June 2020, AerCap had 1,035 owned, managed aircraft in its
| portfolio._ [1]
|
| That's 14% of their business that got nuked.
|
| 0. https://airlinegeeks.com/2022/03/02/lessors-look-to-
| repatria...
|
| 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AerCap
| tyingq wrote:
| I'm not sure why the headline doesn't include Amadeus also. They
| are doing the same thing. It's a much bigger deal that the "Big
| 2" are dropping Aeroflot distribution at the same time.
|
| Note that Aeroflot can still sell direct on their website or call
| center. I don't know how many of their sales are GDS/Amadeus and
| GDS/Sabre versus direct, or via other smaller GDS systems.
|
| Edit:
|
| _" The share of online and call centre sales grew by 1.5 p. p.
| to 36.2% in 2019 (vs 34.7% in 2018). Channel-wise, agents remain
| the biggest contributor to sales with 58.5%. Own sales offices
| accounted for 5.3% of total sales, flat year-on-year."_[1]
|
| So this is hitting that 58.5% bucket, probably most of it. Other
| stories say their "PSS" support is also in jeopardy, though not
| decided yet. If that shuts down, the airline shuts down entirely.
|
| [1]
| http://ar2019.aeroflot.ru/reports/aeroflot/annual/2019/gb/En...
| t0mas88 wrote:
| The reason the big 2 do it at the same time is also that there
| is a very significant payment risk for any counterparty of
| Aeroflot at the moment. The Ruble is falling and the Swift
| block is making payments even harder.
|
| So I'm guessing that demand for Aeroflot in the GDS systems is
| tiny at the moment.
| tyingq wrote:
| >So I'm guessing that demand for Aeroflot in the GDS systems
| is tiny at the moment.
|
| If I understand it right, the international demand would be
| low, but I believe even the domestic sales typically go
| through travel agents that use a GDS. That is, most Aeroflot
| customers don't buy their tickets online. I'm sure they will
| find a workaround, but turning off the GDS will affect even
| domestic sales for a short time. The travel agencies could,
| of course, do the booking online, but then they don't get the
| commission. The workaround is probably some way to pay them
| commission for those kind of sales.
| contingencies wrote:
| Aeroflot already "cancelled flights to Europe" at the same time
| countries closed their airspace. US and Canada also don't allow
| Russian flights. China has their own GDS (global distribution
| system = travel industry term for such a system). Maybe this
| will push Russia to shift to using the Chinese GDS? IIRC it's
| TravelSky (Hong Kong listed) but http://www.travelsky.cn/ and
| http://www.travelsky.net/ appear to be down right now,
| http://www.travelsky.com.cn/ is apparent agent login (but
| apparently firewalls foreign IPs), so see
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TravelSky
| tyingq wrote:
| https://www.travelsky.com.cn/ works for me. It has this
| notice on it:
|
| _" Notice: From now on, the website URL of Xintian
| Youyanzhen will be changed from www.travelsky.com to
| www.travelsky.com.cn, and the original domain name will no
| longer be used."_
| thetinguy wrote:
| I think pss refers to a pricing solution suite.
| tyingq wrote:
| It's "Passenger Service System" in this context. The core of
| where flights are sold. Killing off different GDS systems
| kills off individual sales channels. Killing off PSS kills
| the core of where it all lives, flights, seat inventory,
| pricing, etc.
| mtnygard wrote:
| Passenger service system. It's the one that handles
| reservations and (usually) checkin.
| ploika wrote:
| Would TravelSky step in? To my very limited understanding they
| have a very similar offering, mostly focused on the Chinese
| market.
| namdnay wrote:
| Migrating a PSS is a 3-10 year project, depending on airline
| size
| teh_klev wrote:
| Tangentially related, Mentour Pilot had some interesting takes on
| the future of the Russian civilian aviation industry the other
| day. As you'd expect, it's not a great outlook for them:
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o
| qwertox wrote:
| It's a really recommendable channel [0]. For those who aren't
| aware of it, it's from a commercial airplane pilot who in his
| videos mostly focuses on crashes or other serious problems we
| may have heard of in the news and explains them in detail.
|
| Kind of like Darknet Diaries for Aviation.
|
| In a second channel [1] he talks about general topics related
| to aviation.
|
| [0] https://www.youtube.com/c/MentourPilotaviation
|
| [1] https://www.youtube.com/c/MentourNow
| teh_klev wrote:
| I've followed Petter on YouTube for ~3 years now and really
| enjoy his work. I think he does a very good job of crash
| analysis, really level headed, no drama and backed up by his
| work as an experienced pilot.
| Nextgrid wrote:
| Another one I would recommend if you're into this kind of
| content is 74 Gear: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCovVc-
| qqwYp8oqwO3Sdzx7w.
| teh_klev wrote:
| Yes, he's quite good. I like his air traffic control vs
| pilots videos, there's some nice details explained that you
| never think about.
| onemoresoop wrote:
| For a second I thought it was about hummus served on Aeroflot
| flights but quickly realized the confusion of Sabra with Sabre.
| alisiddiq wrote:
| Not surprised, their printers catch on fire quite easily
| alkaloid wrote:
| Dang, beat me to it. =D
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