[HN Gopher] Famous Navy UFO video was camera glare, evidence sug... ___________________________________________________________________ Famous Navy UFO video was camera glare, evidence suggests Author : mromanuk Score : 207 points Date : 2022-03-16 18:31 UTC (4 hours ago) (HTM) web link (petapixel.com) (TXT) w3m dump (petapixel.com) | rhema wrote: | Well, the only reason they were scrambled to begin with is that | they had been tracking these objects for weeks using advanced | radar. As I understand it, the radar is based on multiple | resolutions. The active radar can point in the direction of | objects of interest and get very very precise measurements. It's | not just the video, its the radar data. | | The thing that pushed me over the edge in believing these things | is the long podcast interview between Commander David Fravor and | Lex Fridman. | zardo wrote: | > its the radar data | | Did the Navy release the radar data, or an analysis based on | it? | rhema wrote: | Not that I know of, so I take your point there. Here's a | related video with some radar data | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rh4QngYJG4I . In the | interview, Frevor does talk about the radar and | instrumentation on the plane, but it's been a while since I | listened to it. | avl999 wrote: | > But a new detailed analysis by self-described debunker, | skeptic, and UFO investigator Mick West | | Ignored as soon as I read the name "Mick West". The guy's brand | is to be a debunker which in of itself is not bad but I am not | gonna trust a video game developer's (brand aligning) | explanations of this phenomenon compared to trained fighter | pilots and the US Navy/Pentagon who have found no explanation of | this phenomenon thus far. | nwallin wrote: | > the US Navy/Pentagon who have found no explanation of this | phenomenon thus far. | | "Released no explanation to the public" != "have found no | explanation". The DoD is simply not in a habit of releasing | information to the public unless they're instructed to do so by | the executive branch. | avl999 wrote: | They did not have an explanation as of last spring when they | were forced to disclose everything they knew about the | phenomenon by an act of congress. There wasn't even a | redacted appendix. | ssully wrote: | Mick West has some interesting videos and does a good job | debunking a lot of crap, but to me he is on the complete opposite | spectrum of a UFO truther in that he doesn't seem to leave any | room for the possibility that he might be wrong. | | With that said, I suggest reading this New Yorker piece [1] on | the subject. It's actually how I came to learn about Mick. He is | covered a bit in the story and gives decent counter points at | certain parts. | | [1]: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/05/10/how-the- | pentag... | zionic wrote: | What? Mick west does a terrible job, all of his arguments that | I've seen are preposterous, and require ignoring tons of | evidence. | ssully wrote: | I think I could have gone harder on my second sentence. I do | think he has some good debunking video's, but I would agree | with you in that he does ignore a lot of evidence. When I say | he is on the opposite spectrum of a UFO truther, I mean that | I don't take him serious because his only goal seems to be to | get a debunk video out regardless of merit. | ynniv wrote: | What is the point of this story? Someone lacking context could | watch this and arrive at the conclusion that "the Navy video of a | UFO has a simple conventional explanation", which is how the | presenter delivers his arguments. He meticulously demonstrates | that the shape of the object which is the subject of the video is | an artifact of camera glare from overexposure. In case you are | not convinced, he breaks it down into four reasons, supporting | each of them with data based on a detailed understanding of the | system. If you are still not convinced that this shake is camera | glare by the end of the video, I would be surprised. | | And yet, whether the shape of the subject is representative of | the object or an artifact of the camera is almost irrelevant to | whether or not this is a video that should be investigated. The | source of the glare is clearly not part of the camera or the | aircraft. We should not treat the silhouette of the object as | valuable data, but it says nothing of the actual object that is | being tracked. The presenter does not suggest this, and the post | spins the whole event as being "debunked". I don't know why | "debunking" things seems to have become a cottage industry, but | there was considerable effort put into analyzing and visually | modeling this thoroughly condescending presentation. | xmaayy wrote: | He literally says something to the effect of "I'm only saying | that the glare is obscuring the true shape of the object" in | the first minutes of the video. | tejohnso wrote: | Yet the title of the article says _the video_ was camera | glare. Which doesn 't even make sense. But what it suggests | is that the entire contents can be explained away as camera | glare. So blame the media in this case perhaps? | tptacek wrote: | There is no way to watch this video and come away with the | understanding that there was no object at all. It spends a | tedious several minutes demonstrating the connection | between glare and objects emitting light, and multiple | long, tedious disclaimers that it is not arguing that there | is no object at all in the video. You have to want it to be | saying something else to take away a different message. | ynniv wrote: | Of course you can, the submitted article does exactly | that. His emotions convey that he knows exactly what's | going on, and he states, repeatedly, that it is lens | flare. Rationally we can see that this is missing the | forest for the trees, but anyone who doesn't think as | critically will deduce that this is only a camera | artifact. He operates this way on purpose, so that people | who want to believe him have the proof they are looking | for, and everyone else will quibble about meaningless | details. | | _A new detailed analysis of the modern poster child for | UFO footage makes the case that the object in the video | is not anything other than glare on the Navy jet's gimbal | camera system._ | | Done. Pilots are idiots, and so are your open minded | friends. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. | tptacek wrote: | He says literally the opposite thing, and at great, | tedious length. | [deleted] | toptal wrote: | Didn't they actually see the object on multiple radars using | multiple types of detection methods? Assuming that's true, the | camera glare story seems unlikely. | netsharc wrote: | The video states that there's something there, but its heat | signature is causing the glare (the video is in IR). Was the | object flying steadily and rotating weirdly throughout the | video? You can't see how the object is flying, the smooth | motion and weird rotation you perceive is the effect of the | glare! | Jerry2 wrote: | You can try the live simulation here: | https://www.metabunk.org/gimbal/ It's amazingly well done! | | Quick inspection shows that it was done with tree.js. Neat! | orblivion wrote: | Maybe they're just gaslighting us to keep us a safe distance from | any certainty on this issue. | oblib wrote: | Interesting how so many are willing to accept "camera flare" as a | concrete explanation. | | One thing that bothers me about this explanation is we know those | pilots had a lot of experience with those systems so I'd expect | they'd know "camera flare" when they saw it on those displays. | But it's clear from the audio they did not recognize it as that. | And there was more than one pilot seeing it, and from different | angles. | | I'd like to hear what the pilots and ship crew members think | about this. | emkoemko wrote: | you say that but there is a fighter pilot on youtube trying to | debunk these videos but lacks any basic knowledge on how | cameras work, while saying things like you can't focus on | objects at different distances at the same time... he | demonstrates this by having a camera very close to a object | ahaha but never noticed he is in focus and so is his | background.... :( dose not know what focal length is.. or how | parallax works. | tsimionescu wrote: | The US Air force and Navy have a pretty bad track record of | incompetent pilots. They have a history of losing numerous | planes in training excercises, for example. | Workaccount2 wrote: | And Mick West is a VFX artist who has a hobby of making | debunking videos for youtube. | RobertMiller wrote: | > _They have a history of losing numerous planes in training | excercises_ | | There is a reason virtually every fighter jet ever made was | made with ejection seats or retrofitted with them later: | They're inherently risky aircraft, and almost impossible to | bail out of. | | If you have some actual statistics that show that USN and | USAF pilots crash their jets at a greater rate than other | nations, I'd like to see it. The absolute number of crashes | tells nothing because some countries (Russia) barely fly | their jets at all. | ARandomerDude wrote: | Incredible speed + low altitude flying + statically unstable | aircraft + sensors + weapons + offense + defense + | communications + ... | | Yeah. These guys must really suck. | tablespoon wrote: | > The US Air force and Navy have a pretty bad track record of | incompetent pilots. They have a history of losing numerous | planes in training excercises, for example. | | Or flying planes planes for the military is just really hard, | and you're holding them to an unreasonable standard. | | Even the best programmer writes software with bugs, | especially when they're not playing it safe and just writing | fizzbuzz over and over again. | gcthomas wrote: | I'd be wary of taking a pilot's subjective impressions as | superior to a technical analysis of the optical system. | | Pilots may be competent users of these systems, but they are | not experts at anything beyond flying their missions, in | general. Experience as users is not the same as expertise under | unusual conditions. | zionic wrote: | https://youtu.be/ro29w4ESw44 | | Has an actual fighter pilot's reaction. | Workaccount2 wrote: | Actual video from the pilot | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tyw4JA00AMc | oblib wrote: | That was pretty painful to watch with the fast forward going | on for so long. I didn't try to take that in. | | Seems to me like our gov's own investigation would've found | gimbal glare to be the culprit if that were the case. But | they didn't. What they said is: | | "Of the 144 reports we are dealing with here, we have no | clear indications that there is any non-terrestrial | explanation for them -- but we will go wherever the data | takes us..." | | And: | | "We absolutely do believe what we're seeing are not simply | sensor artifacts." | | [https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/25/politics/ufo-report- | pentagon-...] | thjkgfgrrioppo wrote: | Believe the experts! | | Some people want real proof, not having to rely on believing | experts. | | I guess it is a chasm across society. Some people want to be | able to believe. | Johnny555 wrote: | Isn't he only debunking the image that appeared on the video as | being glare as opposed to the actual object? So the object is | real, but what appeared in the video is glare, not an actual | representation of the object? | | _West contends that what is being seen in the video is actually | infrared glare that hides a hot object behind it and only rotates | in the way it does because the camera rotates when tracking the | target from left to right._ | notfbi wrote: | UFO-ers were using things like the rotation speed as definitive | evidence of some like other-worldly advanced technology. | Demonstrating that it was the glare/gimble brings it back into | the realm of just a normal far-away plane. It also casts doubt | on the expertise of the pilots/military who didn't realize what | happened. | nwallin wrote: | Correct. | | IR video tends to bloom. If the object is hot enough, (for | instance, a jet engine exhaust, a burning vehicle, a refinery | flare...) you'll have a blob of smudge around/behind it on the | video. The video is contending that the rotation of what is | seen on the video isn't the object itself rotating. Instead, | the blob is elongated as a result of glare/lens | flare/diffraction gradient, and this elongation is aligned with | the rotational axis of the gimbal. As the gimbal nears gimbal | lock, it is forced to rapidly rotate to continue tracking the | object. This rapid rotation of the gimbal causes the glare to | rapidly rotate. | | I do have a background in IR video, gimbals, and translating | between gimbal telemetry and real life coordinates and the | explanation in the video looks good to me. | stouset wrote: | Yes, that is correct. There was still an unidentified flying | object, but the remaining aspects of its behavior do not | require invoking advanced unknown technology to explain. | lamontcg wrote: | > Evidence Suggests Famous Navy UFO Video Was Camera Glare | Vixel wrote: | The narrator sounds like an alien. That analysis is what they | WANT us to think. | progre wrote: | Direct link to the source | | https://youtu.be/qsEjV8DdSbs | darkhorn wrote: | Could it be a ball lightning? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ball_lightning | phendrenad2 wrote: | Nitpick: This isn't "evidence", this is "analysis". The title of | the video itself is "Gimbal UFO - A New Analysis". A photography | magazine can't be expected to understand the difference though, I | guess. | SubiculumCode wrote: | From the first I thought it looked like a bug smashed on the | gimble lens because of how it orated relative to the horizon. | Fascinating explanation why it could be glare from an actual | object. | Maursault wrote: | Why, at the time, were Navy pilots behaving so incredulously, and | why did they not pull up along-side the UFO and simply eyeball | its identification? And why did they _let it get away?_ What is | it that Navy pilots are supposed to be doing when they 're | inscrutably _not pursuing_ possible unidentified threats? | deutschew wrote: | It is bewildering that they expect people to actually believe | intelligent people to discount the IR footage from the F-18 just | based on this article that reads like the "it was a weather | balloon" trope we often get whenever we ask questions. | | edit: holy crap, there are actually lot of people on HN buying | it! | MauranKilom wrote: | Do you have some factual counterpoint to the analysis, or just | "the conclusions sounds like something I don't want to hear"? | mikeInAlaska wrote: | Listen to the Navy pilot himself | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB8zcAttP1E | [deleted] | mzvkxlcvd wrote: | disinfo | imwillofficial wrote: | Camera glare is often known to disable ships and cause small | fleets to mobilize to investigate | NyxWulf wrote: | So the anomaly that the carrier group tracked, then scrambled | fighter jets for. The object that four different pilots saw | visually, and was confirmed on multiple different sensors. That | was camera glare? | | The video is only one piece of the evidence. The pilots are | trained, and other sensor systems confirmed what the camera was | showing. This analysis is pretty flimsy. | tshaddox wrote: | > the gimbal UFO video almost certainly shows a glare that | hides the actual object | | This is in the first 15 seconds of the YouTube video. | [deleted] | tptacek wrote: | I don't know much about this whole story (I'm not a UFO person) | and am learning most of what I know about it from this video | and this thread, but: the people saying that this video depicts | an actual object rotating in the sky appear to be making the | extraordinary claim here: the connection between the rotation | and the camera system seems compelling. The horizon is moving | as the camera/plane moves; the object is not moving. You can't | refute that with "these are highly trained fighter pilots": the | horizon is moving with the camera, the object isn't. Training's | got nothing to do with it. The shape we're looking at is, in | part, an artifact of the camera, unless the aliens are somehow | reprogramming the camera to fuck with us. | user-the-name wrote: | cma wrote: | > The pilots are trained | | Fraver (not sure he was one of the ones in this incident) has a | history of UFO pranks, shutting down engines and gliding over | campfires then lighting up after burners when right over them, | explicitly to give a UFO experience, and someone found a | contemporaneous report of him doing it, so it wasn't just a | story. | Teever wrote: | Source? | ceejayoz wrote: | He told the story to Joe Rogan: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRM8AMrqqsc (at 3:57) | [deleted] | cma wrote: | What ceejayoz linked below | tunap wrote: | Jets do this regularly over the Colorado River and various, | otherwise desolate gathering places around AZ. I've | witnessed such shenanigans a dozen or so times over the | last 3 decades. One jet distracts onlookers while another | sneaks up to buzz low over the deck(or, perhaps it's just | incidental to their training Ops, IDK). These maneuvers are | tests of skill, technology & amusement. | MarkMarine wrote: | As a former member of USMC Aviation, it's valid to point out | that skilled navy pilots can have some of the same range of | differences in belief, action and motivation that the general | populace does. I flew with a pilot on a transport helicopter | that was blasting Eye of the Tiger and taking every turn at | maximum bank, constantly looking for AA to get to fire at us | so he could call in F-18s and watch the fireworks. Some of | them are cranks. | | BUT... I don't think any US military pilot expects their | cockpit recordings or FLIR video to be public at some later | time, I'm not sure what the motivation would be to lie about | this stuff. The harm to you as a respected pilot would be | fairly severe, and you'd have to get your co-pilot to go | along with it. | | "Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead." - Benjamin | Franklin | outworlder wrote: | > shutting down engines and gliding over campfires then | lighting up after burners when right over them | | I find it very, very, very hard to believe that a fighter | pilot would _shut down_ his engines in flight, at night, even | more so if it's for a stunt. | | Slightly more believable if he went to idle, and then full | military power. Slightly. | justsomehnguy wrote: | There is enough videos of F-18s doing 'push the throttle | and bank' in a _level flight_ on YouTube. It 's fast, but | it's not instantenious. And as an arm-chair pilot I can say | what a multiton plane doesn't stay at the altitude with the | engines at idle. | | Also the last weekend I caught an 40" bass. | bostonsre wrote: | So your are saying the one with evidence was a prank because | he screwed around on a training mission? | stouset wrote: | The entire point of this a analysis is that the video | _isn't_ evidence of anything extraordinary. | | Given other potentially questionable behavior around this | subject matter, yes, that absolutely calls their | credibility into question. | RobertMiller wrote: | _" Known prankster pulls another prank"_ vs _" Known | prankster says aliens are here and you should believe him | because he's a professional."_ | | Hmm. | bostonsre wrote: | Have you listened to the joe rogan episode where he talks | about it? | | It seems a little ridiculous to compare the one where he | turned his engine off and on one time at night over a | couple campers to the episode where multiple pilots see | it, with multiple sensors seeing it from planes and from | ships. He engaged in horseplay once, therefor anything he | ever says should not be believed seems lame. | cma wrote: | He explicitly said he did those as UFO pranks. | a9h74j wrote: | > the carrier group tracked | | Naive question: If a carrier group cannot, in essentially real- | time, document _three dimensional_ trajectories at this point | (four if you include speed), what possible defense can they | claim to have against evasive incoming missiles, etc. | chrisco255 wrote: | Carriers are most likely partly obsoleted by hypersonic | missiles that travel and maneuver at mach 20 (which Russia | and China have), in addition to 100 megaton nuclear torpedoes | that travel at 120mph (which Russia has). | | https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/03/russias-new- | pos... | | https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/10/14/will-ground- | bas... | smachiz wrote: | I mean... assuming the Russians have anything that works is | probably not a great assumption based on their performance | in Ukraine. | | But I think they provide overlapping, but different, roles. | But missiles and torpedoes is why aircraft carriers travel | in carrier groups that have defensive capabilities against | torpedoes and missiles. | chrisco255 wrote: | Yes, Russia has the largest nuclear stockpile in the | world, they absolutely work and it's unwise to base your | opinions on their nuclear and tactical capabilities based | on their slow advance into Ukraine. | | The Poseidon is a 100 megaton nuclear torpedo. | | It doesn't need to get anywhere near a carrier group to | knock out the entire group. It is twice as powerful as | the largest nuke ever detonated (at 57megatons) and a | Russian sub can carry four of these torpedoes: | | "All buildings in the village of Severny (both wooden and | brick), located 55 km (34 mi) from ground zero within the | Sukhoy Nos test range, were destroyed. In districts | hundreds of kilometers from ground zero wooden houses | were destroyed, stone ones lost their roofs, windows, | doors, and radio communications were interrupted for | almost one hour. One participant in the test saw a bright | flash through dark goggles and felt the effects of a | thermal pulse even at a distance of 270 kilometres (170 | mi). The heat from the explosion could have caused third | degree burns 100 km (62 mi) away from ground zero. A | shock wave was observed in the air at Dikson settlement | 700 km (430 mi) away; windowpanes were partially broken | to distances of 900 kilometres (560 mi)." | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba | smachiz wrote: | chrisco255 wrote: | I'm a tenth generation American. Pointing out facts is | called being a realist. And I'm not impressed with a | bunch of armchair generals that think that war with | Russia would be easy because their Tik Tok feed told them | so. | smachiz wrote: | VyperCard wrote: | If it exists. If it works. If if it | mcast wrote: | It wouldn't make much sense for Russia to show their | cards and use modern war tech on Ukraine, a country with | a (relatively) primitive military. They're barely even | using fighter jets. | RobertMiller wrote: | > _They're barely even using fighter jets._ | | Maybe because they've barely been training those pilots | and know the planes would likely be lost if used above | Ukraine? Pilots in the Russian Air Force have supposedly | been averaging less than 100 flight hours a year, which | is next to nothing. | justsomehnguy wrote: | With all their operations in (and supporting) Syria I | would doubt the number. It is not the amount of USAF | pilots, but should be more than that. | smachiz wrote: | If you think their strategy is to lull someone else into | attacking them, I guess? | | Occam's razor is more likely - the west vastly | overestimated their capability practically the entirety | of the Cold War, and you're doing it again now. | water8 wrote: | Except for the fact that they are | | https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2022/03/14/u | s/r... | [deleted] | s1artibartfast wrote: | Obsolete is a binary term, not scalar. | | Carrier effectiveness and utility is diminished by some | weapon systems, but they are still effective for many roles | and purposes. | outworlder wrote: | > Carriers are most likely partly obsoleted by hypersonic | missiles that travel and maneuver at mach 20 | | That's assuming they can actually hit and inflict | sufficient damage. | | Also, you need to re-read your own sources. | | > 100 megaton nuclear torpedoes that travel at 120mph | (which Russia has). | | The article is estimating that it's at most 2 megatons | (still a lot, but 50x smaller) and that it's NOT | supercavitating, so it would not travel at 120mph. | | The other article does not support the conclusion that | carriers are obsolete, at all. It poses the question, but | does not answer it. | [deleted] | water8 wrote: | Why is china building carriers then? Hypersonic weapons | still need to know where to go. Theres a reason an ICBM | which flies upwards of mach 20 is ineffective against | carriers | chrisco255 wrote: | They are good at projecting power against lesser foes in | a sub-nuclear confrontation. I think if we went to all | out war against Russia and/or China our carriers would be | some of the first casualties. | [deleted] | thereddaikon wrote: | Its a common assumption made by layman that the existence | of a weapon that can kill a system means its now obsolete. | That is incorrect. | | Systems do not become obsolete because they can be killed. | They become obsolete when they no longer serve utility. | Either something else does the job better, more efficiently | or effectively or the nature of war has changed to the | degree that its now irrelevant. | | This mistake is most often made with Tanks and Carriers for | some reason. The existence of Javelin ATGMs does not mean | tanks are obsolete. And the existence of hypersonic AshMs | does not make carriers obsolete. Those weapons do not | replace the functionality of tanks and carriers. | | Its like the common pop history myth that machineguns made | horse cavalry obsolete in the first world war. It did not. | Cavalry lasted through the war. Their tactics definitely | had to change and adapt. And they were certainly used far | more sparingly due to their low survivability but offensive | cavalry weren't rendered obsolete until tanks came around. | And horses in general weren't obsolete until armies became | fully mechanized and replaced them with trucks. Some armies | didn't manage that until after WW2. | | Likewise the Battleship was not obsoleted because carrier | aircraft could kill it easily. It was obsoleted because | carrier aircraft and later smart weapons meant combat now | happened over the horizon and those big guns weren't | contributing to fleet actions anymore | | Its been possible to kill a tank since literally the first | battle they were employed. Ballsy German artillerymen | learned that British tanks were not immune to a direct hit | from a field gun fired over open sights. And Carriers have | always been vulnerable to antiship weapons. Be it torpedoes | from a sub, dumb bombs from an aircraft or fancy high tech | missiles today. | marcusverus wrote: | I hope you'll excuse some pushback from another layperson | --isn't the situation with Aircraft Carriers | categorically different? In the examples you provided | above (Cavalry, Tanks, and Battleships), there has never | been a push-button solution to eliminating _every single | unit_ in the service of the enemy. Given the technology | mentioned by GP, the small number of Carriers in service | and the utter impossibility of hiding them, it would | appear that such a solution _does_ exist for Carriers. | | So while it seems to be true that Aircraft Carriers are | not obsolete in peacetime or in a conflict with minor | powers, aren't they obsolete in the context for which | they were created--namely, war with another great power? | pavelrub wrote: | No. Because you have to consider: | | 1. Current or future means of intercepting hypersonic | missiles. | | 2. The ability to disable or reduce the enemy's ability | of launching hypersonic missiles, or of pinpointing and | accurately tracking the exact location of aircraft | carriers. | colordrops wrote: | It was also tracked on radar. | beebeepka wrote: | Weather balloon launched by swamp gas burp | Miner49er wrote: | Do you have links to reading more about this? The video saying | it was glare made it seem like the object was very far from the | jet, much farther then the naked eye could see. Was it closer | at some point? | nabla9 wrote: | That "four different pilots" stuff has not been confirmed as | far as I know. All people involved in these stories are | hustlers, including that one ex-pilot who peddles the story. | | You must look at every statement they make separately. They | give one fact that can be verified and then they tie lies or | unverified stuff on that. | | btw. Luis Elizondo is has not been charge of any UFO stuff. | https://theintercept.com/2019/06/01/ufo-unidentified-history... | TMWNN wrote: | >Luis Elizondo is has not been charge of any UFO stuff. | | The late Senator Harry Reid of Nevada disagreed with you. | <https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/politics/article/luis- | elizondo...> | bvbrandon wrote: | Curious to hear your thoughts on this | https://twitter.com/gadinbc/status/1386872125835812864?s=21 | [deleted] | bostonsre wrote: | Have any of them made any money from this? What is the | hustle? | nabla9 wrote: | Oh yes. | | To the Stars Academy of Arts & Sciences (media & | entertainment company) makes this stuff up and sells it. | | https://tothestars.media/ | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_the_Stars_(company) | bostonsre wrote: | The navy pilots are members of that organization? | TechBro8615 wrote: | > btw. Luis Elizondo is has not been charge of any UFO stuff | | I have no conviction on the UFO phenomenon other than it | would be cool if aliens exist, and even cooler if they were | already on Earth. Still, I can't get enough of it - I | especially love thinking about the most epistemically | offensive conspiracy theories, like "the moon is a spaceship" | or "Antarctica is an alien base." I sometimes fall asleep to | _Ancient Aliens_. | | But, fact is, the only government agents with any "authority" | in this "movement" - which became especially fervent around | the dissolution of Q-Anon, btw - are people who worked for | DIA in Information Operations. That is, their specialty is in | manipulating the public, not alien technology. | | The "Lue anon" moniker about sums it up. My theory is the | recent reinvigoration of the UFO movement is an attempt by US | intel agencies to pre-emptively herd the most impressionable | people with their own controlled conspiracy, rather than | allow a hostile actor to manipulate them during the next | election. | | Also, I predicted this 10 months ago, the last time | "disclosure" was imminent, in a comment [0] that I think has | aged well so far. | | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27339120 | likeabbas wrote: | ^This is the key point. These objects have been tracked on | radar, FLIR, and multiple pilot witness testimony off both | coasts for decades now. Attempting to debunk a single one of | these three leaked videos is pointless because they do not show | the entire context of the events happening. | | I implore everyone to watch these two interviews with | Christopher Melon, the former Deputy Secretary of Defense for | Intelligence. And to read the DNI report on UAPs It will change | your entire perception of these incidents and show you to view | them as true national security issues. | | 1. | https://open.spotify.com/episode/2V0uWX1C4m8xEL0HHYqbnE?si=e... | | 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdxcgS4spRM&t=1393s | | 3. | https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelima... | | There are unknown objects flying with impunity in our | restricted military airspace, some that exhibit characteristics | that nothing of human origin can accomplish. This should | terrify you. | | Edit: Why the downvotes? Please explain to me your logic. I'm | just listing things that people with credibility in our | government said, including the Department of National | Intelligence. | [deleted] | willidiots wrote: | The "saucer" shape and its rotation were IR glare, that's the | point of the video. He's very clear that he's NOT debunking the | existence of an object. The exhaust of a jet engine, or another | high-heat signature, could cause such glare. | | AFAICT no pilots saw this shape with their naked eye. They were | miles away from the target and relying on what they saw via | their sensors. | subsubzero wrote: | So actually Commander Fravor saw the object with his own | eyes, he is one of the pilots who was sent in to engage the | craft after it appeared on radar from the carrier group, here | is a detailed video of him talking about the incident with | Lex Fridman(AI reasearcher - MIT) on his podcast - | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB8zcAttP1E | tptacek wrote: | I'm literally learning about this "gimball video" from this | video, so I don't have all the background, but the video | we're looking at wasn't taken by David Fravor; it was taken | by Chad Underwood? In the video we're looking at, we don't | so much have to guess how far away the object was; the | camera video itself indicates it. It's too far away to | discern shape and rotation accurately with a naked eye. The | video goes into detail about this, and the details aren't | complicated. | recuter wrote: | Spoken like a true none believer. I shun thee. Even the | pentagon said they can't explain the UFOs, clearly they | are preparing society for a big reveal. ;) | pgreenwood wrote: | David Fravor was talking about the Tic-Tac video which was | over ten years before the Gimbal video in the article. | mountainriver wrote: | Camera glare my friend, case closed | csa wrote: | > Camera glare my friend, case closed | | I came here to say this. | | There will be no further discussion. | zmgsabst wrote: | This analysis even admits that there's an object required for | the "glare" to exist. | | This analysis doesn't reject an actual object being tracked: it | confirms it and describes it as one that causes IR glare! | NyxWulf wrote: | So the claim is...these highly trained pilots and the other | sensor systems didn't realize that objects cause IR glare, | but this guy did. Case closed. | thesuitonym wrote: | It's not the pilots job to theorize on whether the object | is glare or not, just to describe what he's seeing. This is | one plausible explanation, not THE explanation. There is | still a UFO there, the video is just saying it probably | doesn't look like what we see on screen. | | If you're unwilling to even entertain that this might be a | possibility because you want to believe... I guess do what | you want. | sudosysgen wrote: | Yes. This happened multiple times. There was an incident | where the tree-blade bokeh of a NVD was mistaken for a UFO | once, for example. | stouset wrote: | I'm quite confident that most people here are going to find | a calm, measured, and thorough explanation of the observed | phenomenon more credible than a snarky and instinctive | dismissal that doesn't even bother to address a single one | of the clearly demonstrated points in the analysis. | tablespoon wrote: | > So the claim is...these highly trained pilots and the | other sensor systems didn't realize that objects cause IR | glare, but this guy did. Case closed. | | And frankly the "this guy" appears to be someone with no | expertise and who is strongly biased towards particular | investigatory outcomes: | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mick_West: | | > Mick West is a British science writer, skeptical | investigator, and retired video game programmer. He is the | creator of the websites Contrail Science and Metabunk, and | he investigates and debunks pseudoscientific claims and | conspiracy theories such as chemtrails and UFOs. | | Not to say he isn't right in this case, but I'm equality | unenthusiastic about "skeptics" like that as I am about | conspiracy theorists. | | Edit: on second thought, I'm somewhat _more_ unenthusiastic | "skeptics" like that. Conspiracy theorists can at least be | entertaining sometimes, while "skeptics" tend to just bore | you with self-assured arrogance while they take pot shots | at low-hanging fruit. | Talanes wrote: | > Not to say he isn't right in this case, but I'm | equality unenthusiastic about "skeptics" like that as I | am about conspiracy theorists. | | Yeah, it can be interesting to hear a dubunking from | someone with an actual background in the field, but | someone who's whole schtick is debunking is just as | motivated to prove things wrong as the conspiracy | theorists are to prove things right. | d35007 wrote: | > Conspiracy theorists can at least be entertaining | sometimes, while "skeptics" tend to just bore you with | self-assured arrogance while they take pot shots at low- | hanging fruit. | | I don't know about skeptics in general, but I found Mr. | West's video to be pretty entertaining. He built some | pretty impressive-looking simulations to support his | claims. | | I think conspiracy theories can be interesting and | entertaining, but a lot of their theorists are kinda | pathetic. | msla wrote: | > Conspiracy theorists can at least be entertaining | sometimes | | Right up until they're sure that there's a child | molestation ring in the basement of a pizza parlor that | doesn't have a basement, and someone goes and shoots up | the place because the conspiracy theory was so damn | entertaining. | tablespoon wrote: | That's exactly why I said "sometimes." It might have been | more precise to mean occasionally, but the clear intended | meaning was that it was a minority of the time. | [deleted] | RobertMiller wrote: | bostonsre wrote: | This analysis is saying it's likely 10 miles away, that | doesn't track with the other evidence, does it? | stouset wrote: | What other evidence is this inconsistent with? | colordrops wrote: | RADAR and visual confirmation. | stouset wrote: | I'd be floored if the radar data didn't back this up. A | carrier group would have scrambled fighters well before | anything unidentified got within a hundred miles, much | less ten. | | Visual confirmation I don't find remotely compelling. | Besides the notorious general unreliability of human | observers, humans simply cannot distinguish between | small, nearby objects traveling slowly and large, far | objects traveling quickly without additional contextual | clues (e.g., a tiny plane-shaped object in the sky is | probably the latter). Factor in that they were validating | their observations against a sensor displaying a | misleading image--in other words, providing incorrect | contextual clues--and I think it's not hard to call into | question the accuracy of any visual claims. | bostonsre wrote: | It was picked up on radar over several different days and | a training mission was scrubbed so that they could go | investigate what they saw on radar. | | You don't think humans could get better at judging | distance of objects with practice? It seems like if any | humans on earth could reliably do it, it would be | seasoned fighter pilots that have thousands of hours of | experience doing that exact thing. | scoopertrooper wrote: | Got a source on that? | | I feel like people just want to believe. But this is a | pretty satisfying explanation. | cronix wrote: | Here's a 60 Minutes piece discussing it: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBtMbBPzqHY | | Here's a 4 hour interview with the pilot, David Fravor, | on Lex Fridman's show where he goes into much more detail | than you'll probably read elsewhere: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB8zcAttP1E | | This wasn't just a single radar. It was an AEGIS system | compromised of multiple ships with state of the art | radars, multiple plane radars, and visual confirmation by | several pilots. They were tracking it for multiple days. | thereddaikon wrote: | I didn't think the radar track was at the same time was | it? I thought the Tico's tracked it with the SPY-1 and | they sent F-18s to investigate who then tracked it with | the FLIR and visually. | | Without a reference point you are unlikely to be able to | guess the distance of an aircraft, especially an unknown | one. | stouset wrote: | Exactly. Zero of the GPs objections are inconsistent with | this explanation. The carrier group tracked an unknown object | and scrambled fighters to investigate. The pilots may have | visually observed the object, but it would have been too far | away to really ascertain any visual detail. Instead they | relied on infrared sensors which... suffered from glare, and | so rendered incorrect visuals for the object. Its strange | shape and rotational behavior are now explained. | | What remains is still an unidentified flying object, but one | whose behavior is reasonably mundane and doesn't require | advanced technology to explain. | adriand wrote: | We also need to be really honest about what we _want_ this | to be, and how that desire influences what we believe about | it. I personally _want_ this to be an alien spacecraft, | because that 's super interesting and exciting. I think the | same is true of lots of other people. Unfortunately, there | are much more mundane explanations which fit the evidence | much better. | birdyrooster wrote: | Why do you want it to be alien spacecraft? Are you some | sort of glutton for punishment? | mark-r wrote: | If there really are aliens out there, wouldn't you like | to have some proof of it? | JaimeThompson wrote: | Given how horribly interactions between more | technologically advanced and lesser technologically | advanced societies seem to harm the lesser ones I'm not | sure it would turn out well for humanity. | sterlind wrote: | if the aliens don't annihilate us, maybe they'd be | willing to teach us some physics? | shadowgovt wrote: | And in the realm of mundane objects that may create very | strange radar and visual patterns, we have our choice. | | Space Data Corporation was operating as early as 1997. | Their product is radio communications provided by balloon. | IIUC, normally those balloons are tethered, but if a tether | snapped and one got away and was caught in a high-altitude | crosswind, you'd have a mostly-metal object catching | sunlight and throwing it in weird ways as it tumbled. | gfodor wrote: | The gimbal video is not a video of the object from the Nimitz | incident. There _is_ a video of that but it's less compelling | in terms of evidence, but also afaik not cleanly debunked. (I | think it's called FLIR?) | [deleted] | StanislavPetrov wrote: | >This analysis is pretty flimsy. | | Flimsy is an extremely generous and flattering word if you know | anything about the details of this case or the testimony of the | Navy's top pilots who witnessed and tracked this object from | different vantage points both visually and with instruments. | jmyeet wrote: | I honestly don't know what to make of these observations other | than I'm utterly convinced they're not alien, super high tech or | break the laws of physics (eg inertia). There was no alien crash | in Roswell. I also file believe any government is competent | enough for the claimed cover up and associated psyops. | | What I do find interesting is the overlap between people who buy | into various conspiracy theories and people who are religious, | were religious or would otherwise be likely to be religious. | | There's some fascinating psychology here and I think it boils | down to a combination of wishful thinking and the comfort derived | from there being a Grand Plan rather than just a collection of | random stuff that just happens. | | "Can't be explained" is typically "hasn't been explained yet". | Lack of an explanation is nothing more than that. Extraordinary | claims require extraordinary evidence. | | I approach this from the other direction. Given the huge benefits | of a Dyson Swarm and the fact that it seems to require no exotic | materials and no more physics it looks increasingly likely that | we are very alone in the Milky Way and even if we aren't it | requires an awful lot of hubris to suggest a species would spend | the considerable effort and tens of thousands of years to come | here and hide. | | Like this is Main Character Syndrome at its finest. | playcache wrote: | The problem with your comment is you just lumped together a | string of un-credible events and then summarise you're not | convinced. To be frank Roswell and psyops (whatever that is) | would not be enough to utterly convince me too. What I do find | very interesting though is credible recent eye witness | testimonies coming from US Navy pilots and the work at Harvard | University for the Galileo Project, along with the other many | recent activities around the study of UAPs (whatever they might | be). | | The problem as I see it with this area is it's been far too | stigmatised, so no researchers would ever dare touch it for | fear of being labelled conspiracy theory believing nutcases. | That sentiment is now dying off thankfully and we can start to | find out what on earth is going on. | xdennis wrote: | I'm surprised you're more convinced by eye witness | testimonies. People are notoriously unreliable. If anything, | this glare is better proof of green men than just talk. | president wrote: | I think a lot of people just find the topic of conspiracy | theories interesting and entertaining. You don't need to hate | on them for what is essentially a hobby. | honkdaddy wrote: | The Dyson Swarm is more or less a science fiction concept. Is | its lack of existence really your reason for believing we're | alone in the universe? | | You seem keen to make fun of dogmatic people but attaching a | hypothetical concept which is so trivial and fringe to your | mental model seems like pretty dogmatic behavior. If you'd | never heard of a Dyson Swarm, like the vast, vast majority of | people haven't, would your view of extraterrestrial life have | significantly changed? | user3939382 wrote: | > wishful thinking and the comfort derived from there being a | Grand Plan | | You may not have meant this by your comment, but in general I | find a related analysis common among atheists, that religious | people believe what they do because it feels good. I find | that's often wrong, and when generally applied condescending, | as if atheists are simply more emotionally mature. On the | contrary many religious people will tell you they believe what | they do because it seems to them to be true. | | > Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. | | One might consider the existence of the universe extraordinary | evidence (for the existence of God). | | That said I think we can mostly agree that based on what we | know so far, "aliens" is a fairly implausible explanation for | any given unexplained phenomenon. Where ever you fall on that | debate, I don't think it has anything to do with religious | beliefs except as far as the biases of the people who conduct | these psychology studies goes. | [deleted] | water8 wrote: | There is a high correlation between atheists and arrogance | quesera wrote: | There's a high correlation between arrogance and _anyone_ | who wants you to believe as they do. | | This applies to all of the most visible proselytizers of | religion, politics, economics, operating systems, and text | editors, among others. | bratwurst3000 wrote: | Same said about arrogance and theist. Most religions are | based on beeing something special and not a shitload of | atoms nobody will remember as time pase by | mardifoufs wrote: | I disagree. Religion usually involves deifying a entity | that you consider to be superior, _because_ it is not | human. As an example, the word Islam literally means | "submission" in reference to submitting to God. I'm not | sure how that's arrogant. If anything being just a | creature of god inherently means that we're nothing | special in the grand scheme of things. | ssklash wrote: | I think you hit on the key part of conspiracy thinking. It | doesn't seem like a coincidence that many of the most | conspiracy minded are also extremely religious, in the US | anyway. I don't know anything about conspiracy thinking in the | context of Islam or Hinduism, for example. | | It seems like the tendency to accept a higher power in control | of your life and the world leads to believing in other earthly | powers being able to exert vast control over the world. | vmception wrote: | In France, it was also deeply religion people of Christian or | Muslim faith who felt is was their _duty_ to tell me about | the shadow groups controlling the world. The best part was | that _these_ shadow groups were all French, based in Paris. | ssklash wrote: | I think they must be wrong, since I have it on good | evidence from my deeply-religious and conspiracy-minded | family that the shadow groups are _US based_. | | But seriously, I assume all these types of people have this | sort of localized, my-version-is-the-right-version | theories, since they do the exact same thing with their | religion. | jl6 wrote: | > Given the huge benefits of a Dyson Swarm and the fact that it | seems to require no exotic materials and no more physics it | looks increasingly likely that we are very alone in the Milky | Way | | There's still a huge engineering gap between our current tech | and the theoretical possibility of a Dyson Swarm. I don't find | it _at all_ implausible that such a thing would need too much | energy, effort, collective will, or some other resource, to | make it practical. There could still be plenty of stealthy sub- | Dyson civilizations, or even supra-Dyson civilizations that | have found it in their interest not to be detectable. | staticman2 wrote: | "Given the huge benefits of a Dyson Swarm and the fact that it | seems to require no exotic materials and no more physics" | | Since we haven't been able to build such a thing I think it's | fair to say it requires something or other that's exotic to us. | oldstrangers wrote: | You can't really extrapolate being alone in the universe from | "aliens aren't visiting us." The fact that we exist at all, | especially as a random occurrence of events, would suggest it's | not that bizarre of an event. If we were single celled | organisms having this conversation, then yeah, life outside of | earth would seem more unlikely. | | But we have 4.543 billion years worth of evidence showing that | life REALLY likes to live. To get from a single celled organism | to me typing to you over the internet tells me there's probably | something universal to this process. | | To me it's a lot more "Main Character Syndrome" to suggest we | are wholly unique and alone in the universe. We are the special | chosen species that made it out of an infinite number of | probabilities. Sounds insane. | tunap wrote: | AC Clarke posited perhaps extra-terrestrial life came, they | observed & they quarantined our corner of the galaxy to | inhibit the escape of slavery, murder & environmental | destruction. | DennisP wrote: | For all we know, it takes a whole universe banging molecules | together before metabolizing self-replicating life randomly | arises. If it has only emerged one time in the entire | universe, nothing would look different to us than it does | right now. | | Or maybe it happens all the time. But with only one sample, | we have no data either way. | oldstrangers wrote: | > But with only one sample, we have no data either way. | | Sure we do, that one instance of life pushes the needle in | favor of life. A fun exercise is to imagine or visualize | the concept of nothingness, as far as you can take it. | Eventually you realize even the "idea of nothingness" | negates the meaning of "nothingness." You reach a paradox | in awareness that you're incapable of resolving because to | do so would mean the idea didn't exist in the first place. | Applying it to life, the existence of life negates the | existence of no-life, and increases the probability in our | favor. | | Functionally I think life is more commonplace than anyone | realizes, and we're probably just incapable of | understanding life outside of our perception of reality. | jmyeet wrote: | So we only have one data point of a planet producing what | will quite possibly be a spacefaring civilization or, in | the very least, one able to comprehend as such. | | But if you accept that the Dyson Swarms are a likely | outcome then we have a while bunch of negative data points | in systems within even thousands of light years of us. | | That then brings into focus the hypothesis about Dyson | Swarm. Such a thing can be built incrementally, requires no | material stronger than stainless steel and requires no | energy tech beyond solar power. It is a massive engineering | challenge to be sure but not requiring new physics is | significant. | bun_at_work wrote: | Of all the life we can see only one (or a few for the more | generous of you) species has what humans commonly call | intelligence. | | Intelligence as we commonly refer to it is not a given in | evolution. Evolution seeks forward propagation of genetic | material, it doesn't seek an "intelligent" state. | | It's reasonable to assume there is life elsewhere in the | universe. It's quite a bit more of a stretch to assume there | is _intelligent_ life elsewhere in the universe, aside from | the problem of defining what intelligence is. | potatoman22 wrote: | If we can't define intelligence well, why is it | unreasonable to assume there's intelligent life? Maybe most | life is intelligent, just not on Earth. | [deleted] | jklinger410 wrote: | The thing about conspiracy theories is that when people who | hold power over large groups of people actively mislead them | and deny them of a source of authority, those people grasp at | what pieces of information they do have in order to build a | narrative that isn't tainted by lies. | | It is, and I cannot stress this enough, entirely unhelpful for | you to ascribe it to main character syndrome or compare it to | the belief in an omnipotent God. | | If sources of truth in human societies like governments and | scientific institutions would stop lying or misleading people | nearly constantly then you could call conspiracy people | lunatics, or fringe. But you simply cannot. | | Not only are people being lied to, but they are being actively | disinformed for "their own good." There are massive socializing | forces that have taken an active role in manipulating society | based around the idea that they know better. | | And the ironic part is that, to a degree, they do know better. | People act stupid in groups and have important information | WITHHELD for various reasons that make it impossible to discern | the truth. | | If you want to start minimizing the amount of bullshit beliefs | that people hold, supernatural or otherwise, you can start by | tearing down the systems that are used to create false | narratives which push people into those beliefs. | bratwurst3000 wrote: | Totaly true . Look at alex jones. He is a full blown crazy | person that believes in the supremacy of the christian race... | oh yes racism goes also realy well with religion | ARandomerDude wrote: | What? Christianity is not a race. | Banana699 wrote: | > Given the huge benefits of a Dyson Swarm and the fact that it | seems to require no exotic materials and no more physics | | This doesn't account for the fact that you don't know what - if | any - benefits do exotic materials and funky physics might | bring if they exist and are feasible to exploit. The benefits | might be so much larger than Dyson Swarms, that it would be | wastful\unnecessary to use Dyson Swarms, except maybe as a | hobby or as a low tech fallback for civilizations like camping | enthusiasts and survivalists. Why bother with stars when you | have tech to live in the 21 dimensions that those born- | yesterday biologicals can't even sense yet ? | | The Dyson 'Paradox' doesn't strike me as much of a paradox, | imagine if a group of ants looked at the sky and wondered why | aren't extraterrestials building tunnels inside the moon's | regolith like ants do on Earth. It's just assuming too much. | It's of course a valid scenario, it just isn't the only one. | TremendousJudge wrote: | I mostly agree with your take, but I'll pick on this sentence: | | > Given the huge benefits of a Dyson Swarm and the fact that it | seems to require no exotic materials and no more physics it | looks increasingly likely that we are very alone in the Milky | Way | | The fact that we can come up with the idea of a Dyson Swarm | doesn't mean that not finding any in our observations results | in we "being alone in the galaxy". It's also Main Character | Syndrome, in a way. | | Even discarding the idea of alien life being so different from | ours that we wouldn't recognize it even if we were looking | right at it, and assuming a "human like civilization", it's | perfectly possible for there being unknown physics to us that | make the idea of a Dyson Swarm unnecessary. Using our own | civilization as an example, in the 1950s and 60s we did all of | our data broadcasting over radio waves, and built huge powerful | antennas that screamed about our presence to the wider | universe. People then thought "well, if we're broadcasting all | this stuff, where are the alien broadcasts? why can't we hear | them? we must be alone in the galaxy". Fast-forward to now. Our | current tech allows pretty much all communications to be over | cables, and we're being much less wasteful with our emmiting; | our radio emissions are diminishing over time. | | So, not a century has passed, and already newer technology has | proven our assumptions of alien life wrong. Why would it be any | different with Dyson Swarms? You can't know how more advanced | technology looks like, you can only extrapolate with what we | have now. | bostonsre wrote: | How are you utterly convinced when it can't be proven true or | false and don't have any other explanation for it? Why close | all those doors without sufficient evidence to close them? | | We don't have extraordinary evidence therefore it's not | possible that it's anything weird doesn't seem very scientific. | stonemetal12 wrote: | >Why close all those doors without sufficient evidence to | close them? | | Because there isn't sufficient evidence to open them in the | first place. Might as well claim it is unicorns and dragons, | you don't have any evidence it isn't. | StanislavPetrov wrote: | We have unexplained phenomena. We have eyewitness accounts | from the Navy's top pilots as well as instrument data and | IR footage. If we cannot explain this phenomena with what | we know, then we must consider the possibility its | something that we don't know. Simply putting your head in | the sand or attempting to debunk this documented phenomena | with patently absurd explanations like "a lens flare" or | "it was only Venus" isn't good enough for thoughtful | people. | zardo wrote: | We have what appears to be a shiny floating object. What | data do we have that can't be explained by a shiny | balloon? | nocturnial wrote: | I might be overly pedantic with this point but saying a | shiny balloon fits the limited data we have, doesn't mean | it _was_ a shiny balloon. | | The thing that bothers me the most about this sort of | discussions is that it's all done on "paper"[1]. It would | be helpful to actually release a balloon, or whatever | object you think it was, and check if you can reproduce | the glare and other sensor data. | | If it's very easy to reproduce then we can be more | confident in that explanation and probably nail down more | detailed characteristics of that object. Once we have | that we can look where this object could've come from. | For example, if it points to a balloon, did a | company/organization lose a balloon in that time frame? | Once we have all this info we would have an explanation | that's more robust than someone saying: "It might be | possible this and potentially that" | | This requires money, time and the hardware. So I guess | it's unlikely that will ever happen. | | [1] Not saying it's useless. Those calculations and/or | simulations are very useful to limit the types of objects | it could be. | kingofpandora wrote: | > Navy's top pilots | | Relative to what? Other pilots who fly the same aircraft? | All fighter jet pilots in the Navy? All pilots of all | types of navy aircraft? | bostonsre wrote: | A squadron commander doesn't get into that position by | being incompetent. Fighter jets are incredibly complex | and demanding and there are lots of different aircraft to | pilot in the navy. | bostonsre wrote: | How are you supposed to discover something new about the | universe if all doors are closed from the start? How do you | go from zero evidence where something isn't worth being | investigated further because there isnt sufficient evidence | to there being sufficient evidence for it to be considered | acceptable to investigate? The seems like a feedback loop | that will result in nothing new ever being discovered | unless something magical drops all evidence in your lap. | nabla9 wrote: | To the Stars Academy of Arts & Sciences (media & entertainment | company) makes this stuff up and sells it. | | https://tothestars.media/ | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_the_Stars_(company) | jonnylynchy wrote: | Someone forgot to take their anti-cynicism medication this | morning. | mr_toad wrote: | > Given the huge benefits of a Dyson Swarm | | Dyson Swarms are only plausible if your society is still stuck | in an exponential growth mode. It assumes technological | advancement, but stagnant sociological development, or perhaps | even worse; pathological development, like a hegemonising | swarm. | | I think that many UFO theories make the same mistakes. They | assume high tech aliens with low tech motives. | belter wrote: | - David Fravor and is colleagues, are highly credible witnesses | of something they observed visually. | | - This is certainly a very interesting interview: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIUBjvY4PnQ | | - There are visual observations, and what are, ( by military | standards), flimsy short video images/video. | | - This analysis partially explains one part of it, without | excluding the presence of an object. | | - There is also Radar data, but it has not been published or time | correlated to the reported visual observations. | | Observations: | | - These Aliens only seem to want to goof around with folksy US | pilots. | | - Pilots known to simulate UFO sightings, fans of UFO invasion | stories and stories of Russians shooting UFO's and getting shot | back. ( watch the interview...). | | - These Aliens show up exclusively during their training time and | with sightings restricted to areas with US carrier groups | exercises. | | Also... | | - The Aliens don't show up with their "Tic Tac's" or seem to be | interested on the Ukraine conflict. | | - They don't care about EU or Latin America citizens... | | - Don't want to play around with the Russian or Chinese Air | Force. | | - They don't show up in the data of any of the existing Military | satellites that exist, and are capable of reading a bus ticket on | the ground from 400 km. | | - These Aliens don't show up in the observations of the thousands | of professional and amateur astronomers, that scan the sky a | total of thousands of hours every night, using some of the most | exquisite optical instruments available. | | I would say: They either don't exist, or if they do, they are | pretty dumb and we have nothing to fear. | avl999 wrote: | These observations have also been made by military adjacent | organizations in UK, France and China. It is definitely not a | US pilot specific thing. | RobertMiller wrote: | Mick West debunked these to my satisfaction ages ago. The only | question I have left is whether the whole thing was a US Navy | psyop or whether the navy was just looking the other way and | playing coy when those pilots were creating a retirement career | in UFOlogy. | gfodor wrote: | The UAP report debunks the idea that all the evidence the | government has has been debunked. Time will tell but the report | reversed Project Blue Book, which ruled out non-human | technology. | nabla9 wrote: | People read "Navy confirms authenticity of the video" as "This | is important and Navy can't explain it." (if they try). | | Only thing Navy does it confirms that the video is real. They | don't say that they have even tried to identify or that there | is any reason to identify. They have hundreds or thousands of | hours of video or radar images of drones etc. they don't care | to identify. | | Navy does not engage with these hustlers from "To the stars | academy" at all. That's the only good response. To the Stars | Academy of Arts & Sciences (media & entertainment company) | makes this stuff up and sells it. | | https://tothestars.media/ | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_the_Stars_(company) | RobertMiller wrote: | > _People read "Navy confirms authenticity of the video" as | "This is important and Navy can't explain it."_ | | Precisely. There is a huge gap between what the Navy has | actually claimed about the videos and what people _think_ the | Navy has claimed. _' The video is authentic'_ is not the same | as _' the video shows what it's purported to show.'_ | zionic wrote: | Mick West utterly failed to "debunk" these videos, and actual | fighter pilots have debunked his "debunk". | | https://youtu.be/ro29w4ESw44 | RobertMiller wrote: | Do you happen to have a copy of this supposed debunking | debunking that isn't given by Alvin the Chimpmunk? Wtf dude. | Workaccount2 wrote: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tyw4JA00AMc | | Here is the video on the actual fighter pilot's channel | emkoemko wrote: | are you kidding now? that pilot does not even know how | cameras work at all and your using him ??? | | this American pilot does not know how depth of field works... | can't even notice in his own video recordings, this beyond | funny. He thinks you can't have objects at different | distances in focus at the same time ahahaha, does not get how | parallax works... gave up after those dumb errors and smug | attitude as he was saying such dumb things, i bet he made | even more mistakes. | | is he really a "fighter pilot" or they just not trained to | understand their gear? | TooKool4This wrote: | Or if you follow Hanlon's razor, if the Navy is incredibly | (scarily) incompetent! | emkoemko wrote: | i think they are, there is a video of a "fighter pilot" who | does not understand basics of a cameras... he thinks you | can't focus on objects at different distances at the same | time.... how did he ever get to fly a jet? or parallax i mean | he should know how that works | radicaldreamer wrote: | That's a given (see all the ships crashing into other ships | in the South Pacific a couple of years ago -- and not | noticing for hours!) | RobertMiller wrote: | That is possible, but I think strains credibility. The GOFAST | video is egregious, I find it hard to believe nobody in the | US Navy was able to calculate the actual [mundane, very... | balloon-like] speed of that object using basic trigonometry. | I think it's more likely the Navy knew there was nothing | actually exotic in that video. | | The Defense Department described the subject of GOFAST, | Gimble and FLIR videos as "UAV, Balloons, and other UAS". _' | Balloons'_; they know what it is. They're not even lying, | they're being coy or misleading. | alphabetting wrote: | Still convinced the intelligence and technology it would require | to get here would make us identifying aliens in our ozone | impossible. They'd only be seen if they wanted to be. First | contact could be seeing a von neumann probe or some other kind of | scout type aircraft in space but it wouldn't be like the videos. | throwaway984393 wrote: | Those crafty aliens. | billsmithwicks wrote: | I like Mick West, and even though camera glare isn't usually | picked up on radar by the navy, it's sufficient to fulfill | Occam's razor. | zionic wrote: | Mick West is a buffoon, and his "debunking" videos | intentionally mislead his audience. I say this because he has | had this explained to him again and again but he still ignores | evidence. | | When you have infrared, multiple radar, and visual observations | simultaneously of an object and pretend all you have is a | grainy infrared video REPEATEDLY it goes beyond skepticism into | deceit. | MauranKilom wrote: | Nothing in this analysis or conclusion contradicts the radar | observations - how are they being "ignored"? And it is | unclear to me (as an uninitiated person) how "visual" | observations lend any more credence to the story when they | are just retellings of the exact same kind of footage, except | impossible to further analyze/corroborate. | tsimionescu wrote: | We have a grainy infrared video, and _claims_ of other | infrared, radar and visual observations. Claims are easy to | make and hard to analyze. Video is all we can analyze, and | the video is unconvincing. Why then should we believe the | claims? | user-the-name wrote: | tiahura wrote: | I find the "bump" aspect persuasive. | | I'd like to see similar analysis of the East Coast cruise missile | ufo video. | deepnotderp wrote: | Lens glare tracked by radar. | | That's a new one. | ChrisGranger wrote: | The claim isn't that there is no flying object. The glare | accounts for its appearance. | russdpale wrote: | Im pretty suspicious, why does an MIT AI researcher have a | youtube channel? Does he not get paid enough with his salary? | | Also, this is a four hour video, what is the timestamp of the | comments you refer to? | anothernewdude wrote: | > Im pretty suspicious, why does an MIT AI researcher have a | youtube channel? | | Are you serious? | nkassis wrote: | Some people have YouTube channels as hobbies ? I don't see the | issue. | darig wrote: | e40 wrote: | There's an index in the video notes. | vo2maxer wrote: | > Im pretty suspicious, why does an MIT AI researcher have a | youtube channel? Does he not get paid enough with his salary? | | Could you please elaborate on why you think that an MIT | researcher having a YouTube channel where is had some very | interesting interviews somehow makes it suspicious? | drc500free wrote: | _removed needlessly snarky comment_ | Banana699 wrote: | Those are 3 very, wildly, different men that you're | comparing. | dang wrote: | We detached this offtopic subthread from | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30703907. | qaq wrote: | This podcast generates millions it is one of the most popular | pop sci podcasts. David Favor is not a random pilot he was Top | Gun instructor at the time. | [deleted] | rpilot8 wrote: | Recently Jim Lacatski confirmed that Colm Kelleher ran the daily | operations of AAWSAP/AATIP. Colm was also the deputy | administrator of NIDS which started in 1995. | | This along with the fact that Lue Elizondo used remote viewing to | "save soldiers" in Afghanistan are pretty shocking revelations. | | AASWAP produced no results and shut down. Yet Elizondo talks | often about a 23-minute close video of a craft. And has allegedly | shown videos on his phone to people. | | Only recently have people claimed the government has high quality | evidence, yet the evidence seems to be unclassified (but not | public). | | If such evidence exists, it's almost hard to believe it's only | recently been discovered and it hasn't somehow leaked out. The | whole ordeal is highly suspicious. | voldacar wrote: | Elizondo is a very sus character. He talks and talks but has | produced nothing of any substance | bally0241 wrote: | I suppose the radar signature was camera "glare" too, smh. This | is pretty weak. | zionic wrote: | Exactly! The number of comments in this thread treating this | and mick west as credible is disturbing | netsharc wrote: | The video states that there's something there, but its heat | signature is causing the glare (the video is in IR). Was the | object flying steadily and rotating weirdly throughout the | video? You can't see how the object is flying, the smooth | motion and weird rotation you perceive is the effect of the | glare! | | But nah, of course you know better! | ceejayoz wrote: | It's probably worth at least skimming the article prior to | dismissing it. He's not saying nothing's there. | | > He says that his video does not address the object itself as | it's not clear what the object is and there is nothing to say | that it isn't special or exemplary in some way. He just argues | that his analysis shows that it isn't actually exhibiting any | incredible behavior and opens the door to other "mundane | possibilities" like a distance small jet just flying away and | the heat of the engines is what is creating a large glare on | the thermal camera. | | He's saying the supposedly magical behavior is explicable. | Without that, it's a fairly boring "someone's probably flying a | drone near our ships" sort of incident. | oblib wrote: | Sitting here knowing we have a helicopter and a land rover on | Mars it doesn't feel like it's entirely impossible for an alien | craft to be here, looking at us. | | I can't make the leap to believe without doubt there is, or even | to believe there probably is. But it is not impossible. We've | already proved it's not, and we're not really all that smart. | tsimionescu wrote: | Anyone on Mars would have very clearly seen the Rover landing | and known exactly what it was and where it was coming from. | They also didn't arrive in Mars from the opposite end of the | Galaxy, they arrived from the next planet over. | | Most importantly, no one on Mars would think that the rover or | helicopter are defying theaws of physics, bending space time or | anything like that, which are real claims made by army | personnel about the objects seen in some of these videos. | ssully wrote: | Yup, that's kind of where I am at. I think I lean more towards | "this definitely isn't aliens", but if it's aliens then I | definitely think these are unmanned drones keeping an eye on | us. | stouset wrote: | Space is really big. The difference in effort between getting | an oversized RC car to Mars and getting a huge | supermaneuverable space-and-aircraft to the nearest habitable | planet is about the same as walking down tree driveway to get | your paper and... well, getting a huge supermaneuverable space- | and-aircraft to the nearest habitable planet. | | Then doing it over and over just to play mind games with the | primitive apes on the planet while somehow evading anything | resembling a decent camera or photographer? | | I'm not going to say it's strictly impossible. But it sure as | hell isn't plausible. | oyebenny wrote: | The title of this article sucks. Real bad. | lsllc wrote: | More specifically camera glare caused by swamp gas from a weather | balloon that was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the | light from Venus. | birdyrooster wrote: | Obviously it was glare, it looked like bokeh... ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-03-16 23:00 UTC)