[HN Gopher] Intel Financialized and Lost Leadership in Semicondu...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Intel Financialized and Lost Leadership in Semiconductor
       Fabrication
        
       Author : kloch
       Score  : 124 points
       Date   : 2022-03-17 19:59 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.ineteconomics.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.ineteconomics.org)
        
       | Afforess wrote:
       | Fun fact, Stock buybacks were largely illegal until 1982:
       | 
       | https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/10/23/the-dangers-of-bu....
        
         | ls612 wrote:
         | Stock buybacks are economically equivalent to dividends, with
         | the one exception that they don't trigger a taxable event.
        
           | bin_bash wrote:
           | ...isn't that the reason they were illegal? It seems you're
           | implying not triggering a taxable event isn't important.
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | They don't trigger a taxable event for shareholders who
             | continue to hold the shares. They (obviously) trigger a
             | taxable event (and a more concentrated one) for the sellers
             | of the shares which were bought back.
        
             | mortehu wrote:
             | They also offset shares created for stock based
             | compensation. It's common for the number of outstanding
             | shares to increase even in quarters companies do buybacks,
             | because stock based compensation is bigger than the
             | buybacks.
             | 
             | Since newly issued shares are not tax deductible for the
             | owners, you'd basically be paying tax even if net zero
             | capital is returned.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | I think the primary concern was stock price manipulation.
             | There are some safeguards in place that prevent that from
             | being too big of an issue.
             | 
             | The tax-free dividend is more of a modern discovery, I
             | think. Which is why the loophole hasn't been closed yet.
        
       | gok wrote:
       | (2021)
       | 
       | In general you can tell someone is full of shit if they use the
       | term "financialize" and this article is certainly no exception.
        
         | xadhominemx wrote:
         | Exactly. Ctrl-F "EUV" in the article and notice nothing comes
         | up.
         | 
         | Intel made a couple very bad engineering decisions and fell
         | behind on process technology. That's it. Share repurchases have
         | nothing to do with it.
        
         | doctor_eval wrote:
         | I take it to mean that financial gain is priority one.
         | 
         | All other considerations secondary.
         | 
         | Crew expendable.
        
       | klelatti wrote:
       | Whilst having a degree of sympathy with the point being made here
       | I think that the underlying issue is mainly with Intel's failure
       | to establish attractive propositions in mobile and GPUs whilst
       | they had process leadership - and these failures aren't really as
       | a result of low spend on R&D or Capex.
        
       | randomsilence wrote:
       | This reads as if innovation can simply be bought. Why should
       | Intel be able to buy back leadership when China is trying the
       | same without much success?
        
       | chmod600 wrote:
       | Give profits to investors, or reinvest? That seems like the main
       | issue, more so than "manipulation".
       | 
       | Of course if you give profits to investors, that allows room for
       | others to out-invest you.
       | 
       | But the assumption throughout the article is that, if Intel had
       | reinvested, it would have been a good investment. That's far from
       | clear, given that we know how wasteful organizations can get when
       | they are top dog and flush with cash.
        
       | gleenn wrote:
       | And this is why AMD and Apple are eating their lunch now. I'm
       | super happy Intel is going to build a next gen fab though, mostly
       | because I'm concerned about the imminent threat of China taking
       | over Taiwan and TSMC with it.
        
       | bin_bash wrote:
       | It seems both Intel and Boeing had similar paths. They were
       | engineering-first companies that were transformed into profit
       | seeking and while they made a lot of money initially, eventually
       | it failed for both of them.
       | 
       | My takeaway is that working hard to build quality products is
       | more likely to be profitable than working hard to make money.
        
         | ww520 wrote:
         | GE is another example.
        
         | Melatonic wrote:
         | I see you also watched a certain Netflix documentary recently
         | :-D
        
           | bckr wrote:
           | Which documentary talks about this?
        
         | RC_ITR wrote:
         | That ignores the fact that older businesses tend to
         | financialize to drive growth in equity value once revenue has
         | stopped growing _and_ older companies tend to be the most prone
         | to disruption /failure.
         | 
         | Intel's downfall can be tied back to an org structure that made
         | up for bad gate-level architecture choices with proprietary
         | fabrication techniques. All that customization crushed intel's
         | ability to compete with TSMC in foundry and the lack of
         | architectural discipline prevented them from even coming close
         | to fast-following QCOM SoCs or NVDA GPUs.
         | 
         | Keep in mind, for all the talk of Intel's bad management and
         | over-financialization, BK was a foundry engineer and he oversaw
         | the worst period of decline.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | Older companies are more likely to be disrupted, but younger
           | companies are more prone to failure (per unit time).
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect
        
         | bsder wrote:
         | > My takeaway is that working hard to build quality products is
         | more likely to be profitable than working hard to make money.
         | 
         | Except that it isn't.
         | 
         | "Manufacturing" has known limits. You need this many people to
         | make this many things and your things sell for this much. There
         | is growth, but the values are limited. And, if the company is
         | dying, it is a very slow process and can still generate a
         | remarkable amount of cash while doing so.
         | 
         | "Financialization" has no such limits. The sky is the limit and
         | can do so really quickly. So, it looks great. Your gains can be
         | close to infinite.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, quick and infinite can also describe your
         | _losses_ from  "financialization".
         | 
         | This killed Westinghouse. It also crippled GE quite heavily.
         | There are many other examples.
        
           | doctor_eval wrote:
           | I'm not sure I follow your argument because you appear to
           | disagree, but then support, the premise :) So I'm probably
           | misreading.
           | 
           | But ISTM that the thing with constrained environments like
           | manufacturing is that the constraints are physical, so
           | _everyone_ is constrained, which means that in a highly
           | competitive environment, all viable players should be
           | optimising and striving to work on the edge of what's
           | possible, in order to maximise competitiveness and
           | profitability.
           | 
           | So in such an environment, it's absolutely necessary to "work
           | hard to build quality products", just to remain in the game.
           | If you instead direct your resources to something else (like
           | financialisation) at the expense of building great products
           | then you will fall behind the leading edge and become
           | uncompetitive or, perhaps worse, a commodity player.
           | 
           | This certainly seems to be what happened at Intel, and also
           | Boeing, both of whom appear to have fallen well back from the
           | edge of what's possible.
           | 
           | I think the main reason financialisation is easier to do than
           | engineering, is because money is a universal language, and
           | Verilog is most certainly not. Shareholders seem to invest in
           | order to make money from transactions, rather than dividends,
           | and this seems to be a structural flaw in the financial
           | system.
        
           | danuker wrote:
           | > You need this many people to make this many things and your
           | things sell for this much.
           | 
           | Speaking with no manufacturing experience, but having read
           | some books (Diamandis' Abundance).
           | 
           | You can reduce long-term costs by automating. If each week
           | you buy a robot replacing a human, your operational costs go
           | down permanently. That is because robots are fundamentally
           | cheaper than human time.
           | 
           | Of course, you have to foresee the demand that would make it
           | possible to recoup the costs.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | marcodiego wrote:
         | Money is not a good motivator:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc
        
         | teej wrote:
         | Seems like we haven't learned from the downfall of General
         | Electric.
        
         | threatripper wrote:
         | Investors can take Intel dividends now and invest them in AMD
         | stocks for future profit and be better off in the end. The only
         | people losing are those who expect a secure job until
         | retirement at Intel.
        
         | ska wrote:
         | > working hard to build quality products is more likely to be
         | profitable than working hard to make money.
         | 
         | This seems like a short-term vs long-term thing. You are often
         | going make more money in the short term by chasing the money
         | (e.g. financialization); but if you aren't careful you will
         | undermine the core value of your company.
         | 
         | It's pretty clear that people have made many companies more
         | profitable by this sort of approach, at least for a while.
        
           | Melatonic wrote:
           | Especially when your core business is making airplanes!
        
         | api wrote:
         | Financialization has done this to the entire country to varying
         | degrees.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > My takeaway is that working hard to build quality products is
         | more likely to be profitable than working hard to make money.
         | 
         | For big companies. For individuals it might not be the case.
         | Hence why we see this happening.
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | Boeing won't have failed until someone starts a competing
         | company that stands a chance of replacing it. (Airbus is the
         | same thing, very corporate, very closely tied to governments,
         | but in Europe).
        
           | speed_spread wrote:
           | Because of regulatory capture, any competitor will have to be
           | even _more_ subsidized than Boeing is.
           | 
           | A few years ago, Bombardier introduced a new plane, the
           | C-Series. Even though it did not immediately compete with
           | Boeing's own offering, Boeing successfully lobbied for an
           | extravagant 300% import tariffs to be be applied which killed
           | the primary market (US) for it. Canadian government folded
           | and essentially gave the otherwise technically successful
           | project to Airbus in the hope of salvaging any industrial
           | returns on eventual mass production. The airplane is now
           | known as the A220.
           | 
           | Any would-be competitor will not only be fighting Boeing, but
           | the whole US government.
        
             | acchow wrote:
             | > Boeing successfully lobbied for an extravagant 300%
             | import tariffs to be be applied
             | 
             | Doesn't this violate NAFTA?
        
               | speed_spread wrote:
               | Not just NAFTA. From Wikipedia:
               | 
               | > On 10 January 2018, the Canadian government filed a
               | complaint at the World Trade Organization against the US.
               | 
               | > On 26 January 2018, the four USITC commissioners
               | unanimously determined that US industry is not threatened
               | and no duty orders will be issued, overturning the
               | imposed duties. The Commission public report was made
               | available by February 2018. On March 22, Boeing declined
               | to appeal the ruling. While the USITC had determined
               | there was no threat, the ruling came too late for
               | Bombardier, as the dumping petition by Boeing had already
               | paved the way for Bombardier to relinquish a controlling
               | interest in the CSeries to Airbus in October 2017.
               | 
               | This is just a repeat of the Avro Arrow story. US
               | demanding free trade from everyone and then just bullying
               | its weight around when someone comes along with a better
               | deal than what they can manage.
        
               | doctor_eval wrote:
               | Free trade, free speech, free markets... but we're free
               | to change the rules when it suits us, too.
        
               | acchow wrote:
               | Canada is already experiencing a constant brain drain to
               | the US - there just not enough Canadian success stories
               | to stay around for. And finally this Bombardier success
               | comes along and the US kills it. Why aren't Canadians
               | more mad?
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | Because if the US stopped buying Canadian oil they'd be
               | screwed.
        
           | imglorp wrote:
           | There's a raft of product failures across the board. Not
           | making saleable product is kind of a problem. Boeing's been
           | working on Starliner since 2010 and it has yet to carry
           | anyone to the ISS. Then there's MAX. And the SLS (which
           | hasn't failed yet but /will/ be a 4 billion disposable
           | program, at best.)
           | 
           | Maybe true, it's business profitable, successfully extracting
           | money from airlines and government contracts.
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | In the past 15 years, it's been demonstrated that startups
           | can successfully build cars at scale and commercial rocket
           | ships.
           | 
           | No company is safe. Boeing is exactly the type of company
           | that won't know they're dying until they are dead.
        
             | echelon wrote:
             | > No company is safe. Boeing is exactly the type of company
             | that won't know they're dying until they are dead.
             | 
             | Yes, but they're in a sufficiently protected region of
             | state space guarded by landscape difficulty, moats, massive
             | contracts and cash flows, the government, you name it.
             | 
             | You can't just build a better plane from zero and
             | immediately start taking orders. You have to start with
             | something small, tangential, and then grow into that
             | market. That's still very hard to do in aerospace because
             | the requirement is "don't kill people" yet the problem
             | involves putting people in mortal danger.
             | 
             | I don't doubt that it could happen, but I think it's a very
             | tall order.
        
               | Melatonic wrote:
               | A certain car and spaceship building entrepreneur I could
               | see taking a pretty big chunk of Boeings pie if they
               | wanted to expand or split off in that direction
        
           | miketery wrote:
           | Bombardier had a superior product and had a massive sale to
           | Delta lined up. Boeing came in with the government and added
           | 300% tariff. Talk about "free market."
        
             | speed_spread wrote:
             | Yeah, fuck the new Boeing. Now everytime I'm forced to sit
             | in a 737 I try to fart as much as possible.
        
               | jonnycoder wrote:
               | thanks
        
         | p1necone wrote:
         | Part of the cause is that the people doing this still benefited
         | - if you can cut a bunch of costs and bump profits for the next
         | few years it doesn't matter to you as an executive whether
         | those changes ultimately lead to significantly worse outcomes
         | for the company in the longer term.
         | 
         | Brand loyalty takes a while to fade, there seems to be a cycle
         | with a large number of successful companies that goes
         | 
         | work honestly to build a good product
         | 
         | -> generate brand loyalty
         | 
         | -> people with integrity get replaced by people who would have
         | had no chance of building that successful product/company in
         | the first place
         | 
         | -> cut as many corners as possible while riding the brand
         | loyalty to more short term profits
         | 
         | -> eventually, on the scale of decades sometimes (because
         | people take a /long/ time to realize that 'well known brand'
         | !== quality), get out-competed by a small company building the
         | same thing as you with integrity
         | 
         | -> return to step one with new company.
        
           | Pxtl wrote:
           | How many folks out there got burned by HP products when they
           | were hip-deep in that step 3 step 4 zone of "strip-mine your
           | own brand reputation selling cheap crap"?
        
             | civilized wrote:
             | Maybe I'm revealing my youth here, but... when was HP good?
        
               | dhdc wrote:
               | Before the 2000s or the Agilent spin-off, HP was the
               | undisputed king in electronics test equipments. Their
               | flagship multimeter HP3458a, launched more than 30 years
               | ago, is still the standard in metrology. And Keysight
               | (spin-off from Agilent) is still making them with little
               | to no significant modifications over the years.
               | 
               | They also made some great RPN calculators.
        
               | tigershark wrote:
               | Do you have any non HP printer from 20 years ago still
               | working as expected?
        
               | roland35 wrote:
               | Not 20, but my 10 year old HP color laser is working as
               | well as new!
        
               | gh02t wrote:
               | HP was legendary in electronic test equipment and early
               | computers, calculators etc. Look on Ebay for HP branded
               | power supplies or multimeters, for instance, and you'll
               | see that they still command very high prices. And it's
               | not collectors buying them AFAIK, it's mostly people
               | _using_ them-- even 30 or 40 year old gear. They spun off
               | the test equipment division as Agilent (which still
               | exists and is highly respected under then name Keysight)
               | around the time their computing division started to go
               | downhill.
        
               | WWLink wrote:
               | This is all true. I always hated their deskjet printers,
               | though. The First one I had was a Deskjet 500 and that
               | thing was a massive turd with very expensive ink
               | cartridges, and no matter how many times I cleaned the
               | rollers, it'd still have issues not being able to feed
               | paper. Shit design.
        
               | jdkee wrote:
               | LaserJet III.
        
             | tigershark wrote:
             | I don't feel burned honestly.. A HP printer that I have is
             | probably 8 years old, another one is about 20 years old and
             | they are both still working as expected. (The 20 years old
             | now feels slower than my grandmother drawing, but it was
             | expected at the time)
        
           | cheriot wrote:
           | This is why I think we need to figure out executive
           | compensation. Boards just rubber stamp whatever the CEO
           | wants.
           | 
           | Tie their compensation to real goals and require them to hold
           | for the next 10 years.
        
             | kQq9oHeAz6wLLS wrote:
             | What do you mean "we"? Like government intervention? These
             | are private companies, if they don't want to change this
             | aspect, there's not a lot you can do aside from getting on
             | the board...
        
               | bckr wrote:
               | > What do you mean "we"?
               | 
               | Perhaps people who are interested in building great
               | companies, like the regulars of a tech startup-centric
               | forum
        
             | zozbot234 wrote:
             | The real defense against this dynamic is the takeover bid.
             | If you think the existing board and CEO are doing a poor
             | job of running the company by neglecting growth
             | opportunities, you can literally buy out the existing
             | shareholders' position and be in charge. If you're right,
             | you'll reap the gain in the form of increased valuation for
             | the shares you bought.
        
         | sidewndr46 wrote:
         | My understanding is that both Boeing and Intel have received
         | significant subsidies and bailouts from the federal government
         | when it became apparent the companies had issues. So I'd argue
         | that this an indication of a management success, not a failure.
         | They've been able to externalize some of their costs to the
         | federal government, thus increasing their profits.
        
           | mrtesthah wrote:
           | It just demonstrates why nationalization should have been
           | done instead. It was the right solution in 2008, too.
        
             | ZoomerCretin wrote:
             | Exactly. Governments shouldn't bail out any corporation
             | without a hefty share of ownership in exchange. We did it
             | for Sallie Mae, and we can do it for Intel, Boeing, and the
             | airlines.
        
               | clairity wrote:
               | no, we the people via our governmental apparatus should
               | essentially force bankruptcy early enough (like the FDIC
               | does for failing banks) and sell the assets in a widely-
               | held auction (for fair price discovery), so that a
               | competitor can keep customers from facing undue
               | externalized risk, and creditors and employees can be
               | made whole, while owners take a bath on their equity. the
               | fundamental downside of taking risk has to exist for
               | economies to keep moving towards efficiency (which our
               | economy is frustratingly not because of said
               | financializations and the like).
        
               | brokencode wrote:
               | I agree with this sentiment. And if you let companies
               | fail, then you open the market for leaner, meaner
               | companies to acquire their assets and build better
               | products.
               | 
               | As it is, we keep some of these giant companies on life
               | support for years or decades, allowing them to crowd out
               | competition with their sheer size, while also failing to
               | really produce good products that serve their customers.
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | The thing is the downside of risk taking still exists. It
               | just shifts from an individual risk(the corporation) to
               | an existential risk(a big chunk of the economy).
               | 
               | The only way to prohibit this would be to cap the maximum
               | size of a corporation. My guess is lawyers would just
               | come up with some legal novelty to work around this in no
               | time at all.
        
               | brokencode wrote:
               | We need to enforce antitrust laws, or make new laws if
               | those aren't sufficient. Large companies have insane
               | levels of control over our lives, and it's not healthy
               | for society. Just look at Facebook and Google's
               | stranglehold on information, or Apple's 30% fees on most
               | iOS app revenue.
        
               | clairity wrote:
               | "...It just shifts from an individual risk(the
               | corporation) to an existential risk(a big chunk of the
               | economy)."
               | 
               | but that's the point of the early-enough forced
               | bankruptcy - to salvage value and re-internalize the
               | downside risk to owners only.
               | 
               | i'm totally down with limiting corporate size, not via a
               | direct statute to that effect, but via a high-functioning
               | antitrust department along with severely progressive
               | taxes. you can get as big as you want, as long as you can
               | internalize all the downside risk of being 'too big to
               | fail'.
        
           | gumby wrote:
           | It is a success, but merely a short term success. Boeing,
           | Intel, GM, and GE went from being blue chips suitable as buy-
           | and-hold for a retirement account to being simply high priced
           | penny stocks.
        
             | yywwbbn wrote:
             | On paper Intel is still a very solid company in a dominant
             | market position (albeit that market is not necessarily a
             | growing one). It still has great margins and 6-7x higher
             | net income compared to AMD. And has arguably caught up with
             | AMDs CPUs this year. Despite that it's market cap is almost
             | the same as AMD's. So if you believe Intel can successfully
             | reform itself (maybe not an easy sell, but not totally
             | inconceivable they have all the tools they need for that)
             | it's a great stock which is criminally undervalued.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | In a world where TSLA's (P/E 177) market cap is 15 times
             | that of GM (P/E 6), despite GM selling 6 times more cars,
             | I'm not sure that I'd piss on GM as the 'overpriced penny
             | stock'.
             | 
             | There are supply chains disruptions. Some car manufacturers
             | have been heavily affected by them. Some have not. Unless
             | you think that these supply chain disruptions will continue
             | for the next 20 years, it's bit too early to declare the
             | firms hit by them dead in the water.
        
       | rr808 wrote:
       | Intel is doing badly recently, but it still generates a lot of
       | cash and lives in a world with chip shortages everywhere. It says
       | its going to invest in new fabs, surely it can catch up with TSM
       | and SEC if it tried. It seems like an industry with so much
       | potential, how can it fail?
        
         | acchow wrote:
         | Remember Nokia?
        
           | mlindner wrote:
           | Nokia had it's business area erased. Nokia is closer to what
           | happened to IBM, not Intel. It wasn't outcompeted by
           | companies doing the exact same thing.
        
         | bin_bash wrote:
         | My understanding as an outsider to chipmaking is that Intel's
         | model involved repurposing old fabs so they could make new ones
         | out of the old. TSMC's model is to keep using the same fab for
         | years and years.
         | 
         | Because the chip shortage is largely for older, cheaper
         | silicon, Intel's model doesn't allow for building the chips
         | that are actually needed right now.
        
           | Melatonic wrote:
           | I think the other elephant in the room that not many are
           | talking about is that we have reached a point where most
           | people do not need the latest and great CPU anymore - many
           | can still get by with something 5 years+ old. In the old days
           | stagnation like this could have been a death sentence for
           | Intel but modern times are much more forgiving if they can
           | still play catchup eventually.
        
             | michaelt wrote:
             | Isn't that just a sign that Intel hasn't managed to make
             | any compelling products?
        
       | erichocean wrote:
       | The adoption of financial capitalism has been a disaster for the
       | United States of America.
        
       | kurthr wrote:
       | It's a good point, but a little old in the tooth and not really
       | fair apples-apples comparison Foundry to IDM. Intel's transistor
       | density at "10nm" is closer to industry "7nm". Really, I think it
       | was the desire to continue multi-patterning rather than go with
       | ASML's expensive EUV equipment for a last generation. Bad bet!
        
       | throwaway81523 wrote:
       | July 2021
        
       | morganslaw wrote:
       | I think financialization is something you do in the later stages
       | of a company's lifecycle. It is how you extract the most value
       | out of the company as money, rather than potential.
       | 
       | I think companies have pretty clear life cycles. First they
       | start, they grow, then the plateau, and then fall. Sometimes you
       | may get a few bumps in the road, but generally this is the long-
       | term cycle.
       | 
       | Financialization makes the most sense to engage when when you are
       | plateaued and possibly falling. You can still extract value.
       | 
       | I think that the fall of Sears was a great example of the
       | financialization and extraction of value of a dying company.
       | 
       | Financialization is trading off future potential growth or even
       | long-term staying power for $$$.
        
         | asah wrote:
         | Yyy - see Microsoft starting in the late 90s...
        
         | acchow wrote:
         | How does a company like Apple even fit into this? Grow,
         | plateau, fall, rise from the dead?
        
           | vishnugupta wrote:
           | > fall
           | 
           | Presumably what we saw as "fall" from the outside was Apple
           | pouring hundreds of millions of $$$ into building M1, fixing
           | design flaws in newer MacBook Pro lines etc.,
        
             | acchow wrote:
             | err I was referring to the 1980s and 90s long after the
             | wild success of the Apple II
        
               | vishnugupta wrote:
               | Heh sorry.
               | 
               | Reading various accounts it indeed was a precarious
               | situation for Apple which could have gone either way.
        
         | ayngg wrote:
         | I think it is the fate of companies that got big on innovation,
         | but lost their edge because they got too far ahead and
         | priorities shifted. They lose their ability to be innovative as
         | others catch up so they have to find other ways to give
         | shareholders value.
        
         | zwieback wrote:
         | Generally I agree, but:
         | 
         | > I think companies have pretty clear life cycles
         | 
         | I think it's not that clear. Where I work (hp) you could argue
         | we're like Intel: large public company, shareholder oriented,
         | buybacks, etc. However, we've also gone through a series of
         | consolidations, split-ups, spin-offs and so on. At this point
         | our own company and all our cousins and step-children all have
         | bits and pieces of a whole bunch of different companies.
         | 
         | Also, I'm not sure why a blue-chip company can't just keep on
         | existing. We pay a lot of dividends to keep our investors
         | happy, which means less is available for R&D. That doesn't mean
         | there's no R&D, though, the challenge for a CEO managing a
         | company like this is to balance the two competing demands.
         | Competitors that aren't focussed on crowd-sourced shareholder
         | demands can make disastrous decisions more easily.
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | Blue chip companies need to get better at spinning off
           | internal units into startups.
           | 
           | Every blue chip that I've worked at had internal products
           | that someone eventually founds a startup to copy. Sometimes,
           | it's even an internal employee that leaves to start the new
           | business.
        
             | doctor_eval wrote:
             | I might be misremembering my history but I sn't that how
             | Intel started? As a spin off from disgruntled Fairchild
             | employees?
        
         | narush wrote:
         | Doesn't this feel like a self-fulfilling prophecy? It's like
         | saying "if things are going bad, then just try and extract
         | value."
         | 
         | But if extracting value makes things go bad, then it pretty
         | much leads to a death spiral.
         | 
         | I feel like a more helpful framework is: if you're giving up on
         | competing, then financialize, while recognizing that a) it's
         | probably gonna kill your company, and b) value extraction from
         | users [especially those who have little choice in using your
         | products!] is no fun for anyone!
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | Sometimes there's not much you can do. It can be the case
           | that, you know business as you know it will end and that no
           | level of investment into a replacement will yield a
           | competitive product (i.e., tube tvs to LED/Plasma, movie
           | rental places, etc).
           | 
           | Even innovation powerhouses can eventually fall. Those that
           | stick around often shed the business units that made them
           | successful initially (GE). One good way to extend the life of
           | a company is to acquire your eventual replacements before
           | they get a shot at you.
           | 
           | Business is hard, and most profitable businesses have a shelf
           | life.
        
           | jart wrote:
           | Death spiral? Their stock looks OK. My Core i9 still goes so
           | fast. But for the past few years, if you only read Internet
           | comments, you'd think Intel is about to go belly up tomorrow.
           | This same thing happened twenty years ago. For example:
           | 
           | > NYTimes - Nov 29, 2004 -- The Disco Ball of Failed Hopes -
           | Intel, giant computer chip maker, seems to have lost its way
           | lately; has publicly ... including the 25 percent decline in
           | Intel's stock price this year
           | 
           | As far as I can tell, things are pretty good for the
           | Intel/AMD duopoly. AMD's stock is up 1000% in the last five
           | years. Right now AMD is on top. Just like how AMD was on top
           | around 2004. Then after a few years of AMD winning, Intel
           | turned it around and became on top again. It's like democrats
           | and republicans.
        
       | nimish wrote:
       | You could see this happen in real-time as Intel sold essentially
       | the same processor between 2015 and 2020 stuck on 14nm while
       | increasing prices and lowering quality -- replacing solder with
       | thermal paste, sticking with 4 cores as long as possible to
       | maximize $.
       | 
       | You can see the rather large change under Gelsinger:
       | https://ycharts.com/companies/INTC/stock_buyback
        
         | Melatonic wrote:
         | Those 2015 processors were some damn good processors though -
         | at that point they were quite far ahead. I haven't counted
         | Intel out of the game just yet like many here seem to - they
         | have definitely hit a stumble though for sure.
        
       | morelish wrote:
       | This is interesting to wonder why Intel stumbled so much and has
       | lost so much ground. I suspect the basic premise of this article
       | - that C-level were focused on share price rather than innovation
       | - probably explains it as well as any one thing can.
        
       | adfgadfgaery wrote:
       | I have always been confused by these issues of corporate
       | governance. All these things seem like they should be owned by
       | _real human beings_ , but it is impossible for me to understand
       | who actually owns and controls these companies. They are
       | simultaneously treated as their own entities that make their own
       | decisions while also being completely controlled by a few big
       | shareholders. And often these shareholders are themselves
       | companies, perhaps owned by other companies. And then you get
       | weird stuff like Porsche's attempt to purchase VW, which wound up
       | with VW purchasing its own largest shareholder. It's all
       | incomprehensibly far removed from what the goods and services
       | that are the real purpose of our economy.
       | 
       | Also, the CPU in the picture is upside down. Maybe this is a
       | shallow criticism (especially since the picture was probably
       | chosen by an editor), but I am reluctant to listen to people who
       | would make such a basic mistake.
        
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