[HN Gopher] Alright, amigo, let's build some affordable housing ___________________________________________________________________ Alright, amigo, let's build some affordable housing Author : rmason Score : 109 points Date : 2022-04-02 20:01 UTC (2 hours ago) (HTM) web link (twitter.com) (TXT) w3m dump (twitter.com) | gsk22 wrote: | The thing I don't understand in conversations around affordable | housing is why does it have to be new construction? | | Of course new construction is going to be expensive and full of | bureaucracy. Many US cities have large stocks of older housing in | moderate condition -- sure, it'd take some money to get them up | to snuff, but nothing near what new construction would cost. | jefftk wrote: | At least around here (Boston), the old housing in poor | condition _is_ the affordable housing. This often gets called | "naturally occurring affordable housing". | | But it's not enough, which is why even housing in poor | condition is so expensive. | seibelj wrote: | This is why luxury housing and condos is actually helpful for | lower-income housing - the luxury housing of 60 years ago | becomes the affordable housing as the top of the market | continues moving into better places. | | Basically all housing whatsoever is helpful. But the optics of | it makes it difficult to understand. | dylan604 wrote: | Please, I've never seen this in my day to day personal | experience. Do you have examples of this. It sounds very | suspicious to me. | digisign wrote: | Just drive to the nearest new luxury condo and count how | many low-income folks just moved in. | | If you don't build these things, you'll have to compete in | a bidding war with rich people to rent an old, renovated | shitbox. Guess who will win? | dylan604 wrote: | I think might have misunderstood. I know low income | people are not moving into fancy new condos. I'm just not | familiar with older fancy condos being opened up to low | income residents. They just stay high rent, but with | "charm" since they are older. | digisign wrote: | That's because extreme scarcity distorts the market to | the point that old housing never gets to its natural | cheap point. If they stopped building but only a few | cars, a pimped out Datsun 240Z from the 70s would still | look a lot better than walking, and fetch a lot better | that 70s prices. | | Didn't something similar happen in Cuba? | dzhiurgis wrote: | Somewhat. A lot of that old housing goes to rentals. | heavyset_go wrote: | The luxury housing around here goes to high earners from | cities that are far away, and then wealthy people's adult | children from all over the world move into the homes in the | city after they leave. Housing here and in the cities has | only gotten more expensive. | dv_dt wrote: | Unless of course the luxury housing gets periodically torn | down and rebuilt or remodeled making it even higher end | housing. If the core neighborhood is already high-rent and or | desirable real estate, why would high cost real estate | buildings somehow allow themselves become low rent? | seibelj wrote: | If you don't build new luxury housing, then the top end | goes to the next best thing, and the next to the next best, | and so on. Building more helps increase total supply which | alleviates pressure everywhere. | dv_dt wrote: | That step down doesn't necessarily happen at all - old | luxury housing may get upgraded in place, or upgraded to | higher luxury housing which then becomes less efficient | at serving many. The total supply may shrink from serving | the luxury market. | seibelj wrote: | My larger point is that knee-jerk opposition to luxury | housing isn't helpful, and actually damaging to the cause | of increased affordable housing. In the OP you can see | how uneconomic building affordable housing is - so build | luxury if that's all that can be done. | crooked-v wrote: | How is that "shrinking"? If new luxury housing gets built | now and refurbed later, the additional unit count is | still there. | newsclues wrote: | In reality older housing gets bought renovated and marketed | as luxury housing, so the affordable housing is lost to the | higher profit market. | zozbot234 wrote: | Right, you don't _build_ affordable housing, and you don 't | even _reserve_ housing as "affordable" (that's gratuitously | inviting corruption via basically giving away underpriced | housing as a 'gift' to cronies and associates). You build as | much new housing as _you_ can afford to, and let _older_ | housing filter down to "affordable" levels. | wan23 wrote: | There are two problems with this idea. The first is that the | existing housing stock is already occupied, and the people | who occupy it don't have much incentive to go anywhere. If we | could build a massive amount of new, high quality housing | then in theory the demand for the older homes might decrease | but in many places we're in such a deep supply hole that the | necessary amount of new construction just isn't going to | happen given the political environment. The second problem is | that filtering takes time, but people need homes today. | There's an argument to be made that it's in the public | interest to allow for at least some units to be made | available that are affordable to someone on a teacher's | salary. Also, building homes at any price point is a good | idea. | zozbot234 wrote: | > There's an argument to be made that it's in the public | interest to allow for at least some units to be made | available that are affordable to someone on a teacher's | salary. | | There's an easy way to do that - raise teachers' salaries, | and let them choose whatever housing they want, not what | you've arbitrarily designated as "affordable" (via a | political process). This raises _observable_ costs, but has | plenty of less obviohs benefits. | HarryHirsch wrote: | _let older housing filter down to "affordable" levels_ | | That's the theory. The practice is that much of the "older | housing" is by now 50 or 60 years old, twice the design life, | and at some point renovation is just not economical any | longer, you are looking at a teardown and rebuild. | | That meme tells more about the profession of economics as | taught in schools and universities. It doesn't tell you how | the world works, but it provides support for the way things | are. There's that old cartoon with a royal and a priest, and | the royal turns to the priest saying "you keep them stupid, I | keep them poor." That's applied economics. | digisign wrote: | The reality, here at least. As housing was kept scarce, | older housing never got a chance to fulfill its purpose. So | we have swanky 60s shitbox apartments on their third | remodel for $2k+ a month. Googie architecture, I think its | called. | Consultant32452 wrote: | I agree with you. I'd rather people live under overpasses | than in housing that's a little older than most people | want. | zozbot234 wrote: | Not sure what your point is. If it turns out you have built | lots and lots of the highest-density housing and there's | nothing affordable in sight even after that, then guess | what - you're basically in Manhattan. There are _far_ worse | problems to have when it comes to urban development! | dylan604 wrote: | >let older housing filter down to "affordable" levels. | | you're forgetting the part where it is the older housing that | is currently affordable that is getting demolished so that | this new construction can use that land instead. | cplusplusfellow wrote: | Do you have much experience with construction? I own a | construction company ($10m-20m annual revenue) as my side | hustle. | | It's generally speaking not cheaper to refurbish something once | you consider all of the factors. I'm on mobile so I can't | enumerate those but I'll try to return on desktop where I can | properly type and give an overview. | qeternity wrote: | > as my side hustle. | | If you don't mind my asking, what is your main hustle? | severine wrote: | C++? | giantg2 wrote: | Probably because it doesn't meet the preferences of | renters/owners. It seems preferences drive housing cost in | general. There certainly don't seem to be many (any?) new | Craftsman 800 sqft houses today. Although this article seems to | be more about high density apt/condos, the resource utilization | of the dominate preference (larger, fancier, sfh) can affect | the overall housing system (material, local labor costs). | | Edit: why downvote with no reply? It seems this topic must be | highly political with all the unexplained downvoting with no | debate. | KoftaBob wrote: | > Many US cities have large stocks of older housing in moderate | condition | | and which is already occupied. In order for housing supply to | keep up with demand, it needs to increase, hence new | construction. | crooked-v wrote: | Many US cities have a massive shortage in needed housing, and | none of it will ever be affordable unless quite a lot gets | built quickly. | | It's particularly striking in California, where they ended up | passing multiple state law to outright override local zoning. | (It will be interesting see what happens with San Francisco by | 2025, when their inability to meet housing approval mandates | will turn into developers getting free reign from the state to | build dense housing anywhere in the city.) | mjevans wrote: | Maybe if California finally begins to fix it's housing issues | the overflow to other west coast areas (E.G. Seattle, | Portland (Oregon), maybe even Vancouver BC) as well as surely | all the other cities will feel a tiny bit of relief. Though | most of these places have their own similar issues (E.G. | urban growth boundaries or just lack of practical space | without increasing density near cities; and also see a recent | comment in my history about 'dense' housing not built to | quality of life levels that make it desirable to live in.) * | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30823426#30825978 | bobkazamakis wrote: | the very cool systems integration between Federal and State | in practice seems to mean that California problems are | California problems? Similar to the legalization of | marijuana by the states, it seems like problems are pushed | under the rug until the rug is a few inches off the ground, | at which point it finally gets addressed. By nature, this | disproportionately impacts anyone who isn't able to simply | travel to another state where their a particular issue is | not a problem (abortion laws, various tourism, etc). | | It sounds great for all the states to solve their problems | individually, but where do you draw the line and have the | government step in to prevent problems from getting bigger | in the first place? | digisign wrote: | You touch on the fact that it is a nation-wide problem. | However the implication is that it would let more people | move to California instead of other places isn't a | sustainable solution. | adamsvystun wrote: | The key quote is this: | | > 300-500k in upfront costs. | | So before building anything just the application process will | cost you up to half a million, that's an enormous hurdle. | mtoddsmith wrote: | "they're concerned about indigenous moths" | | Love thy neighbor? | jmyeet wrote: | I find it odd that you almost never hear about the car's role in | the housing crisis. And in the US it has been a massive factor | since WWII. | | First, it allowed the building of suburbs, which just wasn't | feasible before. This in turn led people to push zoning laws such | that building anything other than a SFH became illegal. | | Second, it contributed to the dismantling of street cars and | other forms of public transportation. | | Third, all these cars new housing developments needed roads and | this typically led to the destruction of poorer and usually more | ethnic neighbours. | | Fourth, driving everywhere is like living in an insulated bubble. | You don't have to deal with your fellow man. Things like Skid Row | (LA) or the Tenderloin (SF) don't touch you because you can just | drive around them in an airconditioned bubble. I honestly think | this contributed to making people care less about the plight of | their fellow man. | | Fifth, voters routinely complain about the cost and taxes of | public transportation but think nothing of all the subsidies | governments provide for driving (eg building roads, having gas | stations, building so much parking, having cheap or free street | parking even in densely populated cities with good public | transportation like NYC). Yes there are fuel taxes. No they don't | pay all these costs. | | Lastly, we seem to be comoletely comfortable with the cost in | death and crime of car ownership because of the personal | convenience. Tens of thousands die in motor vehicle accidents | every year. There are crimes like being a serial killer or | kidnapping that almost require having a car. Do we really wonder | why such things exploded post-WWII? | | The affordable housing crisis is depressing because it's another | stark reminder of just how little a fuck people give to people | who aren't in their tribe. The many barriers erected are simply | aimed at making poor people go away. That's it. | | And the problems are at every level of government. | pas wrote: | Not to mention that cities subsidize suburbs in many ways: | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI | | https://www.reddit.com/r/urbanplanning/comments/qrn9i7/in_wh... | nomaxx117 wrote: | I've also noticed that attitudes towards the homeless are | completely different between those who walk and those who | drive. I'm personally willing to pay whatever it takes in extra | taxes to get them shelter and deal with the current crisis in | my city, but I've noticed that people who drive are often far | less willing to support action here. | zozbot234 wrote: | Cars were a fine replacement for horse-drawn carts. They will | largely be replaced and/or supplemented by electrically-boosted | bikes and scooters in the densest urban environments, now that | these have become feasible. | lr4444lr wrote: | Not for nothing, but, if you're a private developer looking to | get the public's money to build something that you're going to | sell and profit from either directly or through special tax | breaks that the rest of us have to are up for, usually in special | variance of zoning that the rest of us have to abide by, you | SHOULD have to jump through a lot of hurdles to prove you aren't | a grifter. | MrStonedOne wrote: | crate_barre wrote: | Ok I feel you, what if I own a sports team and promise promise | promise that that stadium you are going to pay for is going to | improve the community? Is that enough proof? | | How about an Amazon warehouse? | | But yeah, to your point, building more housing in a supply | constricted market requires like way more proof. | dylan604 wrote: | My favorite are the developers that promise a certain | percentage of affordable housing in their high dollar | developments, but never ever come close to that and never get | penalized later. | hammock wrote: | What makes you feel that it's easier to build a stadium than | subsidized housing? How many people, man-hours and money do | you believe is spent on the efforts to get a ballpark or | Amazon campus approved? Really believe it's less than a | multifamily development? | mistermann wrote: | > you SHOULD have to jump through a lot of hurdles to prove you | aren't a grifter. | | Agreed, but I wonder if the hurdles that are currently in place | are even remotely optimal. | | Would it be funny if they were not, and no one really cared? | ceeplusplus wrote: | The end result of that is that low income housing doesn't get | built and market rate housing that doesn't have unnecessary and | burdensome regulatory requirements gets built instead. | | > usually in special variance of zoning that the rest of us | have to abide by | | The solution is to remove the zoning in the first place, not | add more requirements to get an exception to it. | foolfoolz wrote: | i think you just have to phrase this differently: newly built | housing is not cost effective to sell to low income people | f7ebc20c97 wrote: | There is zero technical reason why housing can't be cheap | as hell in this day and age. It's all due to government | restrictions. And I'm not talking about shanty towns either | - that's what you get when _legal_ housing is too expensive | to build! | goodluckchuck wrote: | One way or another, we all live and die by the market. | f7ebc20c97 wrote: | Regulations such as zoning are enormous social experiments. | | Experiments should have control groups! Where are the control | group cities? | | Why do experimental social regulations have to be | _universal_? Would life without them be great? Would it be | terrible? I doubt that mankind evolved to require so much | micromanagement in all aspects of life. | breckenedge wrote: | Houston Texas has no zoning laws. Cant really say they do | any better or worse than comprable cities with zoning laws. | civilized wrote: | No, you should have to jump through _enough_ hurdles to prove | you aren 't a grifter. | | Whether "enough" means "a lot" or "each and every hurdle that | is already in place" is precisely what's at issue here. But I | suppose it's convenient to take the side of maximum | administrative burden if your goal is to minimize the amount of | housing that is built. | panic wrote: | How about we let the grifters build the housing and then take | it from them afterward if they turn out to be grifters? | thereticent wrote: | Sounds like a way to end up with shoddy, dangerous housing or | incomplete or impossible to complete projects. | b3morales wrote: | It's been my experience that the farther you let an | undesirable process proceed, the higher the chance that it | will reach its undesirable conclusion. The enforcers will | make decisions based on sunk costs; there will be more | loopholes for the grifters to exploit; the time demands of | due process will let them manipulate to their benefit; and | there will be higher consequences for disrupting the status | quo (e.g. there will be people actual living in the buildings | already). | HarryHirsch wrote: | Here's an even better suggestion: withdraw federal and state | funding for roads, schools, water and sewage &c if housing | targets are not met. The local NIMBYS will come around once | the potholes become too bad and the school's roof starts | leaking. | giantg2 wrote: | I wonder what is actually looked at or calculated for number of | bedrooms and services offered. In my opinion, people's | preferences for more stuff/room/services are what drives housing | prices in general, especially location. | | It seems racist to call people who are concerned about the | project racists. Some of them may be, but some of those people | concerned about traffic may have legitimate concerns. I've seen | it for fancy developments too. | | Edit: why downvote? | lr4444lr wrote: | You have a point, but it may be a bit obtuse to call racist | accusations themselves racist. Those call outs may or may not | be correct, ignorant, or even a calculated dirty way to | discredit someone, but how are they _themselves_ racist? | giantg2 wrote: | Pretty much why I worded it the way I did - to bring | attention to they potential hypocrisy or lack of standards | around calling people racist based on a concern (traffic, or | claiming racism) that does not display racism. So yeah, my | calling the accusation racist is only as founded as the | author's, which is essentially based on stereotypes and | supposition. In my case, that supposition is that the person | making the accusation must be relying on the race of the | person raising the traffic issues in calling them racist. | anamax wrote: | It's poor form to point out that a racism accusation is one of | the most effective political attacks/responses. Said | effectiveness is not that dependent on the "truth" of said | accusation. (The sneer quotes are because "you're a racist" is | somewhat ill-defined, vague, etc.) | 6510 wrote: | He is referring to racist racists. | chihuahua wrote: | we should always be careful to distinguish between real | racists and true racists. | giantg2 wrote: | As opposed to...? | 6510 wrote: | As opposed to people who are concerned about the project | for other perhaps more palatable reasons. | rubyist5eva wrote: | Governments want affordable housing to be built but the number | one enemy to affordable housing is the government. | alexklark wrote: | Governments only want other people money (so called | taxes/donations), and, sometimes, be elected. Thinking that | governments can not provide themselves affordable and usually | free housing is somehow contradict reality. | poorbutdebtfree wrote: | Affordable housing is such a loaded term that means different | things to different socioeconomic groups. Are we talking about | project based housing? Section 8? New construction for | applicants with x% of the the median income? In any event | almost no one working a full time job will qualify. | newsclues wrote: | Not always. In the past governments built large amounts of | housing. | | In Canada the CMHC used to get affordable housing built on a | massive scale, but now it's mainly just mortgage backing for | banks. | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Mortgage_and_Housing_... | [deleted] | KerrAvon wrote: | With statements like this, it's important to define | "government" -- for example, the specifics in the Twitter | thread are hugely helpful in identifying the actual | bottlenecks. | crate_barre wrote: | Landlords despise tenant protection laws. They'd rather just | treat the place as an investment than deal with tenants that | have rights. | ceeplusplus wrote: | Tenant protection laws seem like failures to me. They don't | prevent landlords from being bad actors (by neglecting | maintenance and not giving a shit about the quality of the | property) and they don't protect landlords from bad | tenants. All they do is allow a few people to get evicted 6 | months and thousands of dollars in legal fees later instead | of in a week. | imgabe wrote: | Perhaps we should just keep building unaffordable housing until | there's so much of it that it becomes affordable | crate_barre wrote: | I feel like one thing that is often not said enough is that | solving housing solves a lot of things for fucking everyone. When | everyone isn't dying to rent or get a house, then you get more | sane prices and inventory everywhere. This literally the most | important issue in America because it is simply the largest cost | for every single American across all classes. | panic wrote: | There is also a _ton_ of abuse that can only continue because | the people being harmed can't afford to move out. | [deleted] | doingtheiroming wrote: | Horrifying. So much human ingenuity and energy burned in a | process seemingly designed to prevent the thing it is supposed to | encourage. | [deleted] | YATA0 wrote: | This Twitter thread hits the nail on the head. Imagine this | process in California, where just working with PG&E to get | utilities to the site may be a six figure adventure, then another | $40-60k for an electrician to wire the house. That could be close | to $200k _for electrical alone_. This could be for a 1,000 square | foot shed in Oakland, not somewhere around Malibu. | | Add on the planning costs that the Twitter author goes on about, | and your "affordable housing" is now near a million dollars. Is | that really affordable? | vbezhenar wrote: | I can build the entire house with everything included. And not | from those pesky woodsticks, but from a real concrete and | bricks. For around $40k. Something in US is seriously wrong. I | understand that labour cost difference is huge, but it can't be | the only factor. | cplusplusfellow wrote: | Can you elaborate what kind of house this is for 40k? | | What is your location? | newsclues wrote: | Building code regulations are expensive. | YATA0 wrote: | Where do you live? $40k in concrete will get you your | concrete driveway in California. | zip1234 wrote: | $4000 for the concrete and $36000 for everything else. | cagenut wrote: | for single family detached, no | | but that was never actually an economically viable product, so | it makes sense to simply not expect it to work. | | for four to sixteen units that seems like it could be fine? | YATA0 wrote: | >but that was never actually an economically viable product | | It is the most economically viable product, which is why they | dominate. | | >for four to sixteen units that seems like it could be fine? | | Those costs have also skyrocketed because now you have | additional requirements like fire, egress, additional | structural when going over two stories, etc. | | It's why most new apartments are "luxury" apartments. The | costs have grown so out of control that the only way to break | even is to make them outrageously priced. | occz wrote: | >It is the most economically viable product, which is why | they dominate. | | Only because they are the only thing that most zoning codes | in the U.S permit to build. With U.S zoning being what it | is, there's literally no honest discussion to be made on | what type of housing is most economically viable. | nemo44x wrote: | I think it's quite viable if we look back to when it | started. Back then hones we're 800sq feet. Even 100 years | ago an average home was about there. Today they are 2400 | so feet on average. | | So if we go back to smaller places it's viable. The only | reason it's not viable in places like Europe is because | there are so many people in a small space. In the USA we | could get adequate population density with 1200 sq foot | homes and 1/8 acre plots. | virtualwhys wrote: | > $40-60k for an electrician to wire the house. | | Think I'm in the wrong profession, what on earth does a | Californian electrician make per year? At that rate I'd guess | 500K+ | spaetzleesser wrote: | Not the electrician. The company owner. | sgc wrote: | Around here they make about $150 an hour if they are | contractors and work for themselves. So I would guess 80-100 | for an electrician with 5+ years experience. About the same | as most other semi-specialized trades. | giantg2 wrote: | Many of the trades can make good money. Especially in areas | that forbid owners to work on their own homes, even to | replace an existing water heater (like NYC). | vasco wrote: | How would they know? | hedora wrote: | It takes an absurd number of hours to wire a house in | California because the code is insane. That multiplies with | high labor costs. | | Wiring a simple / small home, it takes well over four | electrician months, minimum. | | Also, they have to pay licensing fees to the state, insurance | premiums, etc, etc. | | Of course, the $40-60K also includes materials, which are a | small percentage of the cost, but non-zero. | KerrAvon wrote: | I'm a little skeptical. California code is not that | dissimilar to the national code in terms of labor and | materials. I've had extensive work done to my California | house by electricians for a (fully-permitted) remodel and | it's been pricey but not that slow or pricey. | bushbaba wrote: | In California it Cost me 3k to upgrade an electric panel | from 120 to 200amp service. Was a one day job with a | single electrician. | YATA0 wrote: | That's probably the cheapest upgrade in the history of | the state. PG&E claims the average service upgrade in | California is costing somewhere between $8k to $25k. | [deleted] | matthewmacleod wrote: | _Wiring a simple / small home, it takes well over four | electrician months, minimum._ | | It's hard to take these numbers seriously - they don't pass | the sniff test for anyone who has had it done. Wiring a | 1000sq ft home is a job that is measured in days, not | months. While I only have experience of the UK, it is | difficult to see any possible regulation which would mean | installation being quite literally an order of magnitude | slower. | | But let's use some Fermi estimation. California builds | around 100,000 new houses a year, give or take. This | suggests we'd need an absolute minimum of 400,000 | electrician-months a year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics | thinks there are 70,000 electricians in California in | total. Assuming they have an availability of 90%, then we | could say that California has about 750,000 available | electrician-months a year in total. | | This would mean that over half of all available electrician | time in California would be spent wiring new-build houses, | if we assumed they were all small properties. It seems | clear this can't be a credible result. | | I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, but it's hard to | swallow without some idea of what possible thing could | cause this betone vague hints about "code being insane" | sokoloff wrote: | I'm a slow as hell perfectionist DIYer and I can't see any | way I could take even 2 months of full-time work to wire a | small, simple new construction house. How can it take a pro | 4 months? (Or 2 months solo and 1 month with a journeyman | electrician?) | | My parents place was new, custom construction (not small, | but only 3BR/3Ba) and there were 2 sparkies there for 1 day | to set the temporary power, 4 or 5 days to rough the house | in and, after drywall, they were back for 3 or 4 days to | trim everything out. | whartung wrote: | I watched my house being built. We'd visit the site | pretty much once a week or every other week. | | One day we showed up, and all of the electrical had been | done. Power, internet, pre-wired home alarm, panels, the | whole kit. Plumbing was the same way. One day, plumbing. | (It uses that flexible plastic tubing internally, that | has to go up fast.) | | Did I see it being done? No. For all I know 50 folks | showed up and wired it in a day. "2 man months". But, I'm | guessing that's not what happened. | | The most interesting anecdote from this is that I | actually met one of the guys that did the work. He did, | at least part of, the internet wiring. | | Know how I met him? He was driving a dump truck | delivering landscaping material. He liked the work | better, I guess his family owned the hauling business. | | I don't know what he was getting paid to route CAT 6 | cable, but, apparently, all told, driving a dump truck is | better. | catmanjan wrote: | This is very surprising, in Australia I understand we have | strict codes and I have never heard of it taking this long | | What exactly does the electrician spend all that time doing | in California? | antattack wrote: | Some state codes require use of galvanized steel piping | (called EMT) for electrical conduit. | [deleted] ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-04-02 23:00 UTC)