[HN Gopher] I stopped working on black hole information loss
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       I stopped working on black hole information loss
        
       Author : nsoonhui
       Score  : 322 points
       Date   : 2022-04-23 13:28 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (backreaction.blogspot.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (backreaction.blogspot.com)
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | Just because it's not testable does not mean it's not worthwhile.
       | General relativity would still exist even if it could not be
       | tested, fortunately , it is easy to empirically verify. But if
       | the math is sound and meets certain assumptions, then it may be
       | the correct theory. Having many mathematically sound candidates
       | for a correct theory is better than nothing. That' why it's
       | called theoretical physics. She seems to be ignoring that part.
       | By her logic, theoretical physics is a waste of time.
        
       | The_rationalist wrote:
        
       | phn wrote:
       | If someone could challenge my layman understanding:
       | 
       | Isn't the information still there, inside the black hole, but
       | just not retrievable from the outside?
        
         | seanw444 wrote:
         | That's what I thought too. If they expand as they swallow
         | matter, doesn't that easily explain that it's still in there?
        
           | jeremyjh wrote:
           | If you simply read the SFP you'd know the answer to this. It
           | isn't there forever, because the black hole is not there
           | forever.
        
           | Sukera wrote:
           | Disclaimer: I'm not even a physicist.
           | 
           | As I understand it, the trouble is with "what happens to the
           | information inside the black hole?", not with whether it's
           | there at all or not (which isn't disputed - we see stuff fall
           | in, so it's gotta go _somewhere_ and it isn't in our
           | observable part anymore). In addition, because of the nature
           | of a black hole, how would an experiment trying to test any
           | theory about what happens in a black hole even work? As far
           | as I'm aware, we don't know of any mechanism where stuff
           | inside the black hole affects stuff outside the black hole
           | (hawking radiation doesn't, as far as I'm aware, explain
           | _how_ the spontaneous quantum fluctuations come to be -
           | they're just theorized to happen to satisfy the equivalence
           | principle near the event horizon), but that's exactly what
           | we'd need to confirm or deny anything about whatever happens
           | past the event horizon.
           | 
           | On top of this, just the existence of hawking radiation means
           | black holes vanish over time - but without us being able to
           | say that e.g. a book with mass 1kg or a bag of sugar with
           | mass 1kg was once thrown in. We can't distinguish the two
           | cases - the information (as far as we know today) is lost.
        
         | wanda wrote:
         | That's correct for general relativity alone, but GR isn't
         | enough on its own.
         | 
         | Hawking showed that the information is lost in the process of
         | black hole evaporation as the black hole decays into anonymous
         | radiation, and so once a black hole is gone so too is any trace
         | of the matter it absorbed in its lifetime.
         | 
         | It's this bit that isn't okay in quantum mechanics, and that's
         | problematic because quantum mechanics certainly seems to be
         | bang on the money for a great deal of other phenomena.
         | 
         | One would have a hard time saying that QM was wrong. That's not
         | to say that it is a complete theory, but QM has made many,
         | highly accurate predictions that have served to edify the
         | framework.
         | 
         | I don't know how certain it is that black holes evaporate. It
         | may seem tempting to think that perhaps it is this notion of
         | evaporation that could be overturned, but then you have black
         | holes which simply exist forever, which would be rather
         | problematic as well.
        
           | raattgift wrote:
           | FWIW, I've been enjoying your comments in this discussion.
           | 
           | > It may seem tempting to think that perhaps it is this
           | notion of evaporation that could be overturned, but then you
           | have black holes which simply exist forever, which would be
           | rather problematic as well.
           | 
           | Why is a bound state of matter in a black hole lasting until
           | the infinite future more problematic than a bound state of
           | matter in a proton lasting until the infinite future? Is a
           | theory with non-decaying protons problematic compared to a
           | theory with proton decay?
           | 
           | Essentially, gravitational collapse and horizon-formation is
           | not the information loss problem -- the information still
           | exists inside a growing black hole, we're just disconnected
           | from it by virtue of being on the other side of the horizon.
           | Compare with the information from the very early universe
           | which has exited the observable universe thanks to the metric
           | expansion. Or the information in the universe outside the
           | Rindler horizon of an accelerated observer.
           | 
           | Expand the universe forever, and for every observer more and
           | more information goes to the other sides of cosmological and
           | black hole horizons.
           | 
           | Time reversal leads to interesting thoughts: galaxies with
           | stones (and maybe people, chairs, and xylophones) coming into
           | view from beyond the horizon all seems fine if we time-
           | reverse our universe. Likewise for a black hole that had such
           | things fall into it in our ordinary arrow-of-time direction,
           | we should expect that things like stones could be spat out
           | under time-reversal. The information loss problem arises when
           | a black hole completely evaporates to thermal noise: how does
           | the time-reversed black hole, formed from inrushing thermal
           | noise, know that it should eventually spit out xylophones
           | rather than violins?
           | 
           | We need that knowledge in our time-reversed black hole. Does
           | it rush in along with the thermal noise?
           | 
           | The time reversal picture starts with big primordial black
           | holes that fission into smaller ones, with those spitting out
           | dust, gas, dead planets, space probes, stars and so on.
           | Thanks to the time-reversed metric expansion, these spit-out
           | observers also see a bunch of previously unseen black holes
           | rush into view and spit out things like cats and space
           | probes.
           | 
           | This isn't a problem, the recipe for all that can be deemed
           | to be inside the primordial (in the time-reversed sense)
           | black holes: it's part of the initial values surface, with
           | the relevant values initially inside the black hole horizons.
           | 
           | What if we time-reverse from an expanded universe where all
           | black holes have evaporated into thermal noise? Do we have to
           | rely on fluctuations (Boltzmann brains!)? Or on "false noise"
           | as the initial values surface, with dynamical laws that
           | create detailed structure as we do an adiabatic compression
           | of the seemingly structureless cold gas? Or both? We need to
           | get lots of widely-separated black holes at early times when
           | our collapsing universe is big and sparse, rather than at
           | late times when everything is much closer and hotter. We also
           | need it to be correct when we time-reverse the time-reversed
           | picture.
           | 
           | I'm not sure that the problem is qualitatively very different
           | when one thinks classically or quantum mechanically, although
           | the latter sharpens the vocabulary somewhat ("unitarity!")
           | and introduces some fuzzy questions about entanglement energy
           | (Almheiri, Maroff, Polchinksi, Sully 2012 and subsequent
           | fiery discussion).
           | 
           | The problem is that the singularity blocks time-reversal
           | classically, and in the absence of time-reversibility one
           | cannot have unitary evolution (T-symmetry is necessary but
           | insufficient for unitarity, so some (semi-)classical solution
           | that abolishes the singularity might turn out not to resolve
           | the whole information loss problem).
           | 
           | However, a cosmos with black holes that never evaporate seems
           | to abolish most of the "final values surface" problem: we
           | don't know what the quantum numbers are exactly, but at least
           | we know _where_ they are: they 're mostly localized inside
           | black holes.
           | 
           | Finally, in the time-reversed picture we blow apart our poor
           | primordial protons during reverse-baryogenesis anyway, but at
           | least stable protons in our usual arrow-of-time direction
           | means we know where almost all the funky GUT epoch numbers
           | are in our very very far future (ignoring black hole
           | evaporation).
        
         | hsn915 wrote:
         | Covered in the video/article.
         | 
         | I'll post the relevant paragraphs, all quoted directly
         | (verbatim) from the blog post:
         | 
         | Physicists knew about this puzzle since the 1960s or so, but
         | initially they didn't take it seriously. At this time, they
         | just said, well, it's only when we look at the black hole from
         | the outside that we don't know how reverse this process. Maybe
         | the missing information is inside. And we don't really know
         | what's inside a black hole because Einstein's theory breaks
         | down there. So maybe not a problem after all.
         | 
         | But then along came Stephen Hawking. Hawking showed in the
         | early 1970s that actually black holes don't just sit there
         | forever. They emit radiation, which is now called Hawking
         | radiation. This radiation is thermal which means it's random
         | except for its temperature, and the temperature is inversely
         | proportional to the mass of the black hole.
         | 
         | This means two things. First, there's no new information which
         | comes out in the Hawking radiation. And second, as the black
         | hole radiates, its mass shrinks because E=mc^2 and energy is
         | conserved, and that means the black hole temperature increases
         | as it evaporates. As a consequence, the evaporation of a black
         | hole speeds up. Eventually the black hole is gone. All you have
         | left is this thermal radiation which contains no information.
        
         | thwd wrote:
         | Gravity is infinite at the singularity (the middle of the black
         | hole). Everything gravitates towards that point. Our best
         | understanding is that no information can exist here.
         | 
         | Black holes "evaporate" over time -- by emitting Hawking
         | radiation. This is probably where the information goes, in my
         | layman understanding.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | > Black holes "evaporate" over time -- by emitting Hawking
           | radiation. This is probably where the information goes, in my
           | layman understanding.
           | 
           | No, the Hawking radiation and evaporation is exactly what
           | causes the problem. If black holes were forever expanding, we
           | could simply say "they have a structure inside that we can't
           | detect, but that structure preserves the information; but,
           | since it's past the event horizon, it will be, even in
           | principle, forever beyond reach of our understanding and
           | experiment".
           | 
           | However, if black holes eventually disappear, it means you
           | have something like book => unknowable inside of the black
           | hole event horizon => something observable outside. The
           | problem now becomes that, from Hawking's discovery, the
           | "something observable outside" is random thermal radiation,
           | which can't contain information by definition. Hence, not
           | just something unknowable, but a paradox (an inconsistency in
           | the formal model).
        
       | trhway wrote:
       | information paradox of the modern science - reduce everything to
       | a model of a spherical horse in a vacuum, and after that run
       | around shouting that it isn't possible for the horse to have
       | distinguishing features, like the horse's sex, color, breed, etc.
        
       | klik99 wrote:
       | Sounds like they're a trisolarian agent
        
         | geysersam wrote:
         | The opposite! Debating where effort should be spent is crucial.
         | Trisolarians would love to see more research into unknowable
         | multiverse stuff.
        
       | ffhhj wrote:
       | We might be able to create our own BH to test theories:
       | 
       | > The LHC will not generate black holes in the cosmological
       | sense. However, some theories suggest that the formation of tiny
       | 'quantum' black holes may be possible.
        
       | clord wrote:
       | Doesn't the black hole just delay the information, not destroy
       | it? Things that "fall in" from our perspective just fade down
       | into a static low frequency frozen image on the horizon, and the
       | remaining trip to the horizon as seen from the outside takes
       | infinite time.
       | 
       | The falling perspective likewise loses timely access to
       | information about the entire universe as the singularity fills
       | their view.
       | 
       | I don't see a paradox. Just the strange behavior of time at the
       | limit.
        
         | wanda wrote:
         | That's not the paradoxical part. Matter goes in, sure. But
         | before it goes in, it is something, it has a form and a
         | composition, it is in a state and it contains information of
         | its prior states as well.
         | 
         | The part that is problematic is that matter that enters the
         | black hole is only returned to the universe as anonymous
         | radiation.
         | 
         | The universe is stateful, and while not all processes in the
         | universe are reversible, matter and energy do encode the states
         | that led to their present state and thus the prior states can
         | be inferred (by a hypothetical, powerful enough computer, for
         | example).
         | 
         | The problem with black holes is that the Hawking radiation from
         | a black hole does not encode any information about its prior
         | state.
        
           | lamontcg wrote:
           | But that just suggests that at some high enough energy that
           | QM becomes nonlinear and singular and nonreversible and
           | information is destroyed.
        
           | lisper wrote:
           | I think you missed the GP's point, which is that matter is
           | never "returned to the universe" because from any frame of
           | reference outside the horizon, the matter takes infinite time
           | to transit the horizon, so it never actually appears to enter
           | the hole.
        
             | dllthomas wrote:
             | How does that remain true after the black hole has
             | evaporated and there is no longer a horizon?
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | Disclaimer: we are at the hairy edge of my knowledge
               | here, so what I am about to tell you could very well be
               | wrong.
               | 
               | Hawking radiation has never actually been observed. It is
               | just something that pops out of the math if, as Sabine
               | rightfully emphasizes in her video, you make certain
               | assumptions. And one of those assumptions is that you
               | have a fully-fledged black hole, i.e. an object that
               | actually contains mass beyond the event horizon. We are
               | used to thinking of this assumption as having actually
               | been confirmed by observation, but it is not actually
               | true. No one has ever actually observed a black hole,
               | notwithstanding that we've ostensibly taken a picture of
               | one. That image was of the radiation emitted by an
               | accretion disk, not the black hole itself. Black holes
               | themselves are, obviously, impossible to image.
               | 
               | So we don't actually know whether black holes actually
               | exist or not. The only thing we've directly observed is
               | their gravitational effects, and the gravitational
               | effects of an actual black hole are indistinguishable
               | from having all of the mass of the hole actually resident
               | just outside the event horizon. What actually happens at
               | the horizon is beyond the reach of our current theories
               | because there both gravity and quantum effects are
               | significant, and we do not yet have a consistent theory
               | of quantum gravity. Everything we think we know about
               | black holes is actually the result of taking GR and QM
               | and framming them together in some ad hoc way by adding
               | simplifying assumptions which may or may not actually be
               | true.
               | 
               | This is the point Sabine was trying to make: the black
               | hole information loss paradox is not a problem with
               | physics, it's a problem with our current theories. We
               | simply don't know how the universe actually behaves in
               | the presence of extreme concentrations of mass/energy.
               | The only thing that the BHILP actually tells us is that
               | either GR or QM -- or both -- are wrong, mere
               | approximations to the actual truth in the same way that
               | Newtonian mechanics turned out to be an approximation to
               | the actual truth (one that happens to work extremely well
               | in weak gravitational fields).
               | 
               | But no one has a clue which one is wrong or how despite
               | 100 years of effort. And one of the reasons for this is
               | that we have no data, and no reasonable prospects for
               | obtaining it. So we may just have to make our peace with
               | not knowing.
        
               | wumpus wrote:
               | > Black holes themselves are, obviously, impossible to
               | image.
               | 
               | What we observe is the "shadow" of the black hole. The
               | expectation is that the flux from the shadow should be
               | consistent with zero. For M87* the observed flux ratio
               | with the ring was ~10:1. See Paper 1:
               | 
               | First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow
               | of the Supermassive Black Hole
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.11238
        
               | vl wrote:
               | >Black holes themselves are, obviously, impossible to
               | image.
               | 
               | Unless they produce Hawking radiation. Then by definition
               | they are possible to image. In the original article she
               | mentions that temperature of known black holes is lower
               | than CBR, meaning that they are too cold to be seen
               | agains background of cosmic background radiation.
               | 
               | I personally think that they produce no radiation and do
               | not evaporate, but this is just unscientific
               | philosophical opinion.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > Unless they produce Hawking radiation.
               | 
               | Fair point (modulo the practical difficulties of
               | measuring Hawking radiation).
        
               | platz wrote:
               | Wall of text, didn't answer the question.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | The question assumes that black holes evaporate, and we
               | don't actually know that they do.
               | 
               | Is that better?
        
               | platz wrote:
               | That is a more transparent answer and direct answer, yes.
               | Maybe if you had lead with that sentence, I wouldn't have
               | been inclined to respond. But it also fails to address
               | what I point out below. (as an aside, this answer is also
               | not one that I find satisfactory on the actual topic.)
               | 
               | Dllthomas correctly pointed out that given the two
               | premises that (from the frame of the observer) (1)
               | [matter takes infinite time to transit the horizon] and
               | (2) [due to hawking radiation, black holes have a finite
               | time span], then (2) resolves (1) when the black hole
               | disappears.
               | 
               | To recap, Instead of acknowledging that (2) resolves (1)
               | you proceed to question the existence of hawking
               | radiation and black hole evaporation, which compared to
               | consensus is a radical view and is not warranted. Also
               | the pivot was done in a way that seems to complicate and
               | obfuscate rather than address the point directly (this is
               | a common debate tactic; however I'm not sure if you were
               | conscious of the behavior or if it was more
               | subconscious/rationalization (more likely); you may not
               | have even been aware you were doing it).
               | 
               | It seems like you chose to reject consensus instead of
               | simply accepting that (2) resolves (1), maybe because you
               | seem to have a fixation on not ever conceding a point in
               | a conversation. Sometimes it's ok just so say, "yeah,
               | that's a good point".
               | 
               | (btw if you're rejecting hawking radiation why say
               | anything about black hole theory at all this point
               | because it could all be wrong, no reason to speculate
               | about it)
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > you seem to have a fixation on not ever conceding a
               | point
               | 
               | That is quite the accusation coming from someone whose
               | entry into the conversation was "Wall of text, didn't
               | answer the question." But let's see...
               | 
               | > Dllthomas correctly pointed out...
               | 
               | dllthomas did not "point out" anything, correctly or
               | otherwise. All he did was ask the following question:
               | 
               | "How does that remain true after the black hole has
               | evaporated and there is no longer a horizon?"
               | 
               | This question _assumes_ that black holes evaporate. That
               | assumption may be incorrect. We do not know whether or
               | not black holes actually evaporate. In fact, we do not
               | even know whether or not black holes actually form at
               | all. And therefore:
               | 
               | > (2) resolves (1) when the black hole disappears
               | 
               | That might be true if (2) were true. Even that is
               | arguable, but it is neither here nor there because we do
               | not know whether or not (2) is true
               | 
               | > compared to consensus is a radical view
               | 
               | Yes, of course. The consensus view leads to a paradox,
               | and so we know that the consensus view cannot possibly be
               | correct. We also know that decades of effort have not
               | resolved this paradox, and so it is extremely unlikely
               | that there is a simple straightforward solution that has
               | simply been overlooked. So the correct solution will
               | almost certainly be a radical departure from the current
               | consensus.
        
               | polishdude20 wrote:
               | It's fascinating to think that our theories on everything
               | around us are based on everything near us enough to be
               | measurable and experimented on. Black holes are so far
               | away and so outside of our normal observations of mass
               | and energy that we can't observe them well enough to do
               | experiments.
               | 
               | It's like we've come up with two theories of how the
               | universe works but and the universe is like "you guys are
               | like 90% there but here's a case where these don't
               | work.". It's fascinating to think that there's gotta be
               | some one theory that can account for everything in the
               | universe both big and small from black holes to quantum
               | stuff. It's like we've dug ourselves in two very deep
               | holes over the years and maybe we need someone to come
               | along with a new hole that encompasses both things that
               | see the whole picture. Anyways now I'm just speculating.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > there's gotta be some one theory that can account for
               | everything
               | 
               | Actually, there doesn't. The universe is under no
               | obligation to operate according to laws. That the
               | behavior of the universe is so lawful is quite
               | remarkable. It didn't have to be this way. Our universe
               | could be a simulation, and that simulation could have
               | been created by some capricious being who makes all kinds
               | of random shit happen just to fuck with us. That does not
               | appear to be the case, but there is no reason that it
               | could not have been.
               | 
               | Likewise, there is no reason why our brains should have
               | the capacity to be able to figure this out. It may be
               | that the Kolmogorov complexity of the universe is vastly
               | larger than what the human brain is capable of dealing
               | with. Again, this does not appear to be the case. In
               | fact, it appears to be the exact opposite. We can explain
               | 100% of the phenomena within our solar system, and even
               | within most of our galaxy, with theories whose KC is
               | shockingly low, small enough to be grasped by a single
               | human brain. But it didn't have to be that way. And maybe
               | it isn't that way. Maybe we have actually reached the
               | limit of what the human brain is capable of (in terms of
               | figuring out physics). I don't think so, but you can't
               | rule out the possibility on the basis of the evidence we
               | have.
        
               | polishdude20 wrote:
               | I'm just saying there's gotta be because of what we've
               | observed so far. Like you said, we can explain 100% of
               | the phenomena in our solar system. It leads to believe
               | that we can do that in the future for things outside of
               | it.
               | 
               | Also, just because a theory is discontinuous at its
               | boundaries doesn't mean we can't have a theory that is on
               | the other edge of that boundary. The unifying theory is
               | supposedly supposed to link both general relativity and
               | quantum mechanics.
               | 
               | Obviously this is just my opinion but I think any system
               | that is sufficiently observable, with enough time can be
               | figured out completely. I don't think it's a matter of if
               | our brains can understand it but if we can have the
               | ability to run experiments on it and enough time.
        
               | daxfohl wrote:
               | I think that's the point. From an outside perspective the
               | black hole will evaporate before the thing falls in. Thus
               | a thing can never fall in. From its perspective the hole
               | will emit more and more intense radiation and finally
               | evaporate just before it hits the horizon.
               | 
               | If true, I think you can go even further and say no black
               | hole can completely form; the collapsing matter just gets
               | exponentially closer to being fully black until the
               | effect of the Hawking radiation outweighs the
               | gravitation, but it all evaporates before going fully
               | black. No?
               | 
               | (This latter part assumes there's some Hawking radiation
               | or equivalent from pre-black holes as well. And I'm not
               | sure whether that would be unitary or not, so it may not
               | resolve the information paradox anyway).
               | 
               | (Edit: I think the pre-Hawking radiation would be
               | unitary, since the only reason Hawking radiation is not
               | unitary is because BHs don't have information, but pre-
               | black holes are not black holes. So doesn't that solve
               | the info paradox? Without resorting to holographs and
               | whatnot? Where's the error?)
        
           | Raidion wrote:
           | Totally uninformed here:
           | 
           | Have we proved the Hawking radiation is without information
           | (or enough of it), or is it just 'encrypted' at a level we
           | can't distinguish from noise?
        
             | jfengel wrote:
             | The theorems that derive it's existence don't use the
             | underlying state. They come from the margins of a black
             | hole, which completely hides what's in it. That's the No
             | Hair Theorem.
             | 
             | If information leaks out they'll have to figure out why the
             | No Hair Theorem is wrong.
        
             | theptip wrote:
             | A lot of complexity is hidden behind the term
             | "information". You should be careful not to just use your
             | existing intuition/definition for this word, it's extremely
             | specific Quantum Mechanics jargon here.
             | 
             | This is talking about quantum states and how they describe
             | the world. Each state corresponds to physical (quantum)
             | reality, conforming to the laws of physics. So it's not
             | like you can just twiddle bits to make new representations.
             | 
             | I think this is an area where appealing to the lay reader's
             | intuition is counterproductive. If you haven't solved the
             | Schrodinger equation before then you definitely shouldn't
             | be trying to intuit things about quantum systems; they are
             | just weird and kind of irreducibly complex from the
             | mathematical representation.
             | 
             | Let me attempt to go against my advice above and give you
             | some intuition for why encryption doesn't parse here. It
             | would be like you have a program with some static types,
             | some classes, and then say "what if we just encrypt the
             | memory location for this object on the heap and run the
             | program". The program is the thing that is running (laws of
             | physics), the variables on the stack/heap are the state for
             | the current execution, and it has no concept of decryption,
             | so it would just produce garbage and crash. In the same
             | way, the quantum physics description of a system has
             | superposed states that are all valid configurations of the
             | physical system, and no notion of "encryption". So there is
             | nowhere in the model of physical reality (and therefore
             | unless we are missing some new Physics, nowhere in the
             | reality that is modeled) for this information to "hide".
             | 
             | Or taking a different tack, "thermal entropy" means it's
             | just a bunch of gas buzzing around randomly at the same
             | temperature - there is no physical place for structure to
             | be "encrypted". Where is the "key" in your model of the
             | world? It's just a cloud of gas. What physical process
             | performed the encryption? That would require a complex
             | structure, yet we are talking about a cloud of particles
             | emitted when one half of a particle-antiparticle pair is
             | captured by the black hole's event horizon. There is no
             | place in a workable physical model of the world for an
             | entity that performs encryption on the quantum states
             | (whatever that might mean).
             | 
             | All this just points to why you can't encrypt states in
             | this way, not why the black hole information paradox is a
             | problem. For that you really do need the maths; eg see http
             | s://www.cs.umd.edu/class/fall2018/cmsc657/projects/group...
             | for the Physics here; while that requires graduate-level
             | understanding of QM, hopefully the intro will be useful.
        
               | Ar-Curunir wrote:
               | > the encryption ... would require a complex structure
               | 
               | Not a quantum information theorist, but am a scientist.
               | We actually do have (conjectured) low-complexity one way
               | functions, so this by itself is not necessarily true. I
               | do agree that it's a fairly unlikely to be the case that
               | natural processes execute this algorithm, though.
        
               | theptip wrote:
               | I think the GP is thinking of two-way encryption under a
               | symmetric key here, else it's hard to see how the
               | information isn't still "lost".
        
               | prewett wrote:
               | > If you haven't solved the Schrodinger equation before
               | 
               | Heh heh, define "solved"... If I remember my QM class
               | correctly, we "solved" the Schrodinger equation for the
               | hydrogen atom; the book achieved this by observing "...
               | which gives us <equation>, and, hey! look at this! it
               | turns out that FamousLastName polynomials--which you've
               | never heard of--turn out to solve this equation, here's
               | their definition, and... problem solved!" (If I remember
               | correctly they were Legendre Polynomials, but maybe that
               | was some other equation. And to be fair to the book, it
               | was a pretty good book.) After having "solved" the
               | equation for one isolated, most-basic atom, they went on
               | to say, "basically we have no idea if there is an
               | analytic solution for anything more complex".
               | 
               | If manipulating bra and ket vectors symbolically around
               | an equals sign counts, we did a lot of that, although it
               | did not develop in me the least intuition about QM. But
               | then, I never really understood what those bra and kets
               | were doing, and my grades steadily dropped (fortunately
               | for my GPA there were only three courses). So it's
               | possible I might have developed some intuition had I
               | understood what was going on.
        
               | lupire wrote:
               | Obviously no idea if this is true, but, an object falling
               | into a black hole maybe could emit some radiation
               | containing the key before the majority of the mass
               | "encrypted" into the black hole.
        
             | GTP wrote:
             | I'm also totally uninformed, but my gut feeling is that
             | physical systems don't encrypt information, at least not in
             | the way we assume when talking about encryption. Also if
             | you go down that route you risk having something that can't
             | be proven: how do you prove that black holes are _not_
             | using a one time pad to encrypt information, with each
             | black hole using a different and random key?
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | mannykannot wrote:
             | This seems to address it (from the article):
             | 
             | "[Hawking] radiation is thermal which means it's random
             | except for its temperature, and the temperature is
             | inversely proportional to the mass of the black hole. This
             | means two things. First, there's no new information which
             | comes out in the Hawking radiation..."
             | 
             | Its mass is one of the few things we know from the outside.
        
               | phendrenad2 wrote:
               | How do we know it's thermal? How do we know there aren't
               | small fluctuations that are too small for us to detect
               | millions of miles away?
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | AFAIK Hawking radiation has never been detected. It is
               | hypothesized on the basis of current theories of quantum
               | mechanics and gravity, and those assumptions imply a
               | thermal distribution of energy. So, we have a reason to
               | think that Hawking radiation occurs and has this
               | property, while no-one so far has proposed a mechanism
               | that would encode data on it.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | It's important to understand that Hawking radiation is
               | not something we've observed and have noticed seems
               | random.
               | 
               | Instead, Hawking radiation is a prediction of a
               | mathematical model. In that model, Hakwing radiation is
               | purely random.
               | 
               | If I remember correctly, Hawking radiation is postulated
               | to arise because of fluctuations in the vacuum giving
               | rise to virtual particle pairs. Normally, these would
               | annihiliate back almost instantly. But, when such an
               | event happens near the event horizon, one of them may
               | fall into the black hole, leaving the other one to
               | "escape", and appear as if the event horizon is emitting
               | radiation. Since this radiation is caused by random
               | fluctuations in the void outside the event horizon, it
               | can't be correlated with anything past the even horizon,
               | so it can't carry information about that.
        
               | andrewflnr wrote:
               | Thermal radiation from a classical object looks "random"
               | but still obeys (and in fact inspired) quantum theory.
               | The information about the past of the object is there,
               | it's just unfeasible to recover. I suspect Hawking
               | radiation is the same way.
        
               | lupire wrote:
               | Why do you suspect that? Do you deny that quantum
               | mechanics is a valid model of the universe?
               | 
               | Or do you believe quantum mechanics is equivalent to
               | relativistic mechanins?
               | 
               | Either would unwrite a century of physics.
        
               | GTP wrote:
               | Probably for OP this isn't enough: if the radiation was
               | carrying encrypted information then it would look random
               | without knowing the "key", whatever a "key" could be in
               | the context of a physical system. But I think that
               | talking about encryption here without a solid preparation
               | in the filed of physics it is just trying to apply
               | something we know to try to solve some problem we have no
               | idea how to approach.
        
             | grogers wrote:
             | I mean, hawking radiation itself is unproven - we can't
             | experimentally verify it because the temperature of the
             | radiation from stellar mass black holes would be too small.
             | For small black holes, nobody has seen one 'pop'. In theory
             | it's testable but probably not in our lifetimes.
        
           | SnowHill9902 wrote:
           | What is problematic about that? In what way does it violate
           | the second law of thermodynamics? If anything, it seems like
           | a great example of the natural tendency towards disorder.
           | Also, it's not possible to infer macroscopic prior states
           | even with an infinitely powerful computer. When you mix water
           | at different temperatures, entropy is irreversibly increased.
           | It's not possible to tell the initial temperatures just from
           | the final state.
        
             | wanda wrote:
             | > In what way does it violate the second law of
             | thermodynamics?
             | 
             | If you read my comment, you will find no mention of the
             | second law of thermodynamics or any violation of said law.
             | 
             | In fact, black holes need to evaporate in this way in order
             | to comply with said law of thermodynamics.
             | 
             | > When you mix water at different temperatures, entropy is
             | irreversibly increased. It's not possible to tell the
             | initial temperatures just from the final state.
             | 
             | It is still water, however. You may not be able to say what
             | temperatures _W(a)_ and _W(b)_ were from _W(c)_ , but you
             | could at least say that _W(c)_ may actually be _W(ab)_ i.e.
             | may be the mixture of two bodies of water _W(a)_ and
             | _W(b)_.
             | 
             | Bring the same water to a black hole and you have: _W(a)_
             | went into a black hole and _x_ came out, where _x_ is some
             | random heat.
             | 
             | If you detect the heat _x_ , what could you say about
             | anything that may have been before?
             | 
             | If _W(a)_ , _W(b)_ , _Chair(a)_ , _Xylophone(g)_ ,
             | _Stone(f)_ , _Person(z)_ or anything went into the black
             | hole, only heat _x_ comes out in the end.
        
               | SnowHill9902 wrote:
               | Perhaps I'm missing some advanced theories or
               | contradictions, but it seems to me quite intuitive or at
               | least reasonable that there exists some very efficient
               | generators of entropy, i.e. black holes. Even if not
               | having fallen into a black hole, such water would have
               | decayed to heat and fundamental particles eventually.
               | 
               | Why is it contradicting that it happens much faster in
               | some places in the universe? It may be surprising but
               | what does it contradict? I'm asking sincerely.
               | 
               | Regarding the water thought, if you recite a poem inside
               | a chamber, it turns into heat. If you are outside and can
               | only measure that the room slightly increases its
               | temperature you also can't recover the poem.
        
             | jfengel wrote:
             | It's a subtle point. Several key theorems of thermodynamics
             | rely on the ability to count unique states. If you could
             | evolve the exact same state in two different ways, the
             | proofs would fail.
             | 
             | That's how thermodynamics derives indistinguishable macro
             | states from distinguishable micro states. Throw that off
             | and thermodynamics stops working.
             | 
             | Since it has worked well so far they're reluctant to throw
             | it out. Something has to go, and since they already know
             | there's something funny going on where black holes meet
             | quantum mechanics, that's the lowest hanging fruit.
        
               | SnowHill9902 wrote:
               | So you are saying that if I solve the Schrodinger's
               | equation for all the particles that make up her I could
               | know where my wife wants to go out for dinner?
        
           | andi999 wrote:
           | What is the difference of this paradox to a particle entering
           | a gas container, thermalizing, and the ejecting the particle
           | (evaporate the gas). Thermal states is described by
           | macroobservables only.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Hmm I thought the laws of physics were time-reversible, but
         | then I found this: https://www.wolframscience.com/nks/notes-9-3
         | --time-reversal-...
        
           | rssoconnor wrote:
           | Same. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2idut9tkeQ is the
           | relevant episode from Space Time.
        
         | mannykannot wrote:
         | I have wondered that, though without knowing enough to even
         | figure out if it is a reasonable question. One follow-on
         | thought I had was this: what about the matter that becomes the
         | black hole when it forms? When a star collapses into a black
         | hole, where does the event horizon first appear?
        
           | lupire wrote:
           | What do you mean "where"? It appears at the region one
           | Schwarzchild radius away from the center.
        
             | mannykannot wrote:
             | Sure, but the Schwarzchild radius is a function of the mass
             | within it. I'm thinking by analogy to a galaxy or globular
             | cluster, which has enough mass to be a black hole, if it
             | were dense enough, but it will not become one unless and
             | until some dissipative process has caused it to collapse
             | towards its center. When this happens, I am supposing that
             | the black hole will first form in the center (where the
             | gravity well is deepest), with a large part of the cluster
             | mass initially outside of it, and grow as the friction
             | continues to feed mass into it. If this is, in fact, a
             | reasonable model, would something similar happen in a
             | collapsing star? (Only much faster.)
        
       | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
       | Why is information loss such a big deal? Information gets lost
       | all the time. Hit the wrong button, and the all-important file
       | vault is gone, with all the backups, forever, information in them
       | is lost. You might lose a job, but the universe doesn't break
       | because of that!
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | Not sure if you are joking, but the article covers this.
         | 
         | In principle, according to QM, information is never lost (until
         | you make a measurement, but that's a different can of worms).
         | In principle, in QM it is impossible to delete information. The
         | article explains: if you burn a book, but gather detailed
         | information about the fire and the smoke, you can reconstruct
         | exactly what every letter on every page looked like, and every
         | ink blot you spilled on it 10 years ago.
        
           | xaedes wrote:
           | Burn it to ash, collect info about the ash and reconstruct -
           | no problem. But if you burn it in a way, that the only
           | remains are "random thermal radiation" all the information is
           | lost and we have a serious paradox to resolve...
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | > But if you burn it in a way, that the only remains are
             | "random thermal radiation" all the information is lost and
             | we have a serious paradox to resolve...
             | 
             | To quote the famous Spartan answer, If.
             | 
             | That is, QM predicts this is impossible. Even if you threw
             | the book into the Sun, you would (I must emphasize again
             | _in principle_ ) be able to measure the radiation given off
             | by the sun and at some point identify the words of the
             | book.
        
               | kgwgk wrote:
               | > according to QM, information is never lost (until you
               | make a measurement
               | 
               | > you would (I must emphasize again in principle) be able
               | to measure the radiation given off by the sun and at some
               | point identify the words of the book
               | 
               | Does the "information" [1] survive measurements or not?
               | 
               | [1] "Information? Whose information? Information about
               | what?"
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | > Does the "information" [1] survive measurements or not?
               | 
               | My understanding is that it doesn't, but I believe that
               | may depend on your interpretation of QM. Note also that
               | "measurement" is pretty ill-defined.
               | 
               | > "Information? Whose information? Information about
               | what?"
               | 
               | About the state of the system (the wavefunction).
               | Basically in QM an isolated system cannot reach the same
               | final state by more than one route; so, if you know what
               | state it's in, you know exactly what route it took, what
               | every previous state was.
               | 
               | Maybe the problem is more clear if moving to computation
               | from pure physics:
               | 
               | In a classical computer, you can do something like "x = x
               | & y; y = y & x". If you run this operation and find that
               | x = 0 and y = 0, you can't know what values x and y had
               | before, so that information was lost (ignoring other
               | physical effects - if QM is right, the information is
               | still retained, maybe radiated away by the processor or
               | something).
               | 
               | As such, in a quantum computer, this operation simply
               | can't be performed. Instead, you have to use an ancillary
               | bit, z, and some QC equivalent of the Toffoli gate [0].
               | Then you can compute something like {x, y, z} = {x, y, z
               | XOR (x AND y)}; {y, x, z} = {y, x, z XOR (y AND x)}; if
               | you get the result {0, 0, 1}, you can compute exactly
               | what values x, y and z had initially.
               | 
               | The same observations apply to physical interactions.
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toffoli_gate
        
           | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
           | Or the QM is just wrong about information never being lost.
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | Sure, that's a possibility. But, the problem is that this
             | feature comes from a very fundamental place in QM's
             | mathematics - QM is (almost) a linear theory, and with
             | linear equations, information can't be lost. So, to assert
             | that QM is wrong about this is to invalidate all of QM's
             | equations.
             | 
             | Now, it's important to recognize one thing: QM is not
             | _really_ a linear theory, because it also has Born 's rule,
             | or the Measurement postulate. That is, while the
             | wavefunction evolves according to purely linear equations,
             | when you ultimately want to measure the state of the
             | system, you get a non-linear update: the wavefunction
             | suddenly "collapses" to a single value, and information is
             | indeed lost (different wave-functions can collapse to the
             | same state after a measurement). However, the measurement
             | postulate is itself poorly understood, so its hard to
             | introduce it into the discussion without derailing things.
             | 
             | There are even consistent interpretations of QM where this
             | doesn't actually happen, such as Many Worlds, where the
             | information is actually still preserved across the totality
             | of the worlds.
        
       | Aardwolf wrote:
       | > They are completely described by only three properties: their
       | mass, angular moment, and electric charge
       | 
       | What about linear momentum, if the black hole has some velocity
       | through space is that not also a parameter of it?
        
         | delusional wrote:
         | I don't think linear velocity is necessary to describe a black
         | hole. Basically, a black hole that moves behaves exactly the
         | same as one that stands still.
        
           | Aardwolf wrote:
           | What's different about angular momentum in that case? Given
           | that rotating or not rotating is also similar to moving or
           | standing still
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | Koshkin wrote:
             | The (important) difference is that a rotating frame of
             | reference is not inertial.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | dark-star wrote:
             | Rotating black holes behave quite differently from static
             | (non-rotating) black holes.
        
             | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
             | The laws of physics are invariant under a change in linear
             | velocity. If you take everything in the Universe and add a
             | constant to its velocity, and then if you yourself add that
             | amount to your own velocity, then everything will appear
             | exactly the same.
             | 
             | The laws of physics are _not_ invariant under rotation. If
             | you take everything in the Universe and give it a nudge so
             | that it 's spinning around a particular axis, things will
             | change. For starters, everything will fly apart, unless you
             | also create a force field that pulls everything towards the
             | axis of rotation (with the force increasing linearly with
             | distance from the axis of rotation).
             | 
             | A technical way to describe this is to say that the laws of
             | physics have Poincare invariance (or more properly, just
             | Special Relativity has this invariance).[1]
             | 
             | That's why linear momentum is viewed as a trivial property
             | of a black hole, but angular momentum is not.
             | 
             | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poincar%C3%A9_group
        
             | Ma8ee wrote:
             | No. Simply put, the laws of physics will be described by
             | different equations in a rotating frame of reference than
             | in one that doesn't rotate, while it is impossible to
             | distinguish two frames of reference that is just moving
             | relatively to each other without any reference to the
             | outside.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | pfortuny wrote:
         | AFAIK linear momenum depends on the choice of inertial
         | reference frame, so you may assume it is 0.
        
       | travisgriggs wrote:
       | I watched the whole video.
       | 
       | My current physics acumen is probably in the lower half of the
       | average HN reader.
       | 
       | I enjoyed AP physics in high school. Took the test, got a 4. I've
       | been helping my wife back in school with half life decay (as much
       | chemistry as physics) and relished that. As a Mechanical
       | Engineering student, I got A's in my three required physics
       | class. In short, I really liked physics. It helped me make sense
       | of the world.
       | 
       | I'm old enough, that quantum mechanics was not the public
       | fascination it is now. Cold fusion was the big topic those days.
       | 
       | Despite all of this early formative appreciation for physics, I
       | have yet to really appreciate QM.
       | 
       | It just has never helped me explain the world around me. And
       | unlike many of the transcendental changes that occurred in the
       | industrialized world as we got better and better at physics,
       | whatever QM is supposed to do for me (it's supposed to have
       | bigger application than the double slit thing, right?), isn't
       | apparently obvious to me.
       | 
       | The brief parts where Sabine is referring to QM particulars in
       | the video, and when I skim the other articles and such I see on
       | QM, always include a lot of phunky math, amusing names and
       | symbols, and a sort of talk that sounds like convoluted
       | philosophy, or an attempt to explain transubstantiation or the
       | "mystery of the trinity."
       | 
       | I was amused at the end of the video. There's a "keep your cake
       | and eat it too" thrust. She clearly states a sort of
       | collegiate/professional "you do you" support. At the same time
       | she tells the viewer they don't need to pay attention or care
       | about it. But if we the lay masses don't care, the PR that exists
       | for the sake of securing funding to go on with these papers dries
       | up. So in a round about way, she's saying "I support my
       | colleagues wishes to continue to pursue these studies, but you my
       | reader shouldn't bother to support them in any way, direct or
       | indirect."
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > It just has never helped me explain the world around me.
         | 
         | Hum... All of electronics, the entire modern chemistry, solid
         | properties, gaseous state changes, how do you make sense of any
         | of that without QM?
         | 
         | (Of course, it's perfectly ok to not understand those if you
         | don't want to. But then you can't claim that it's missing, just
         | that you don't want to learn it.)
        
           | paulpauper wrote:
           | I don't think his statement is that unreasonable. the world
           | is perceived and interfaced as macro yet the quantum is is
           | what makes the macro. So you have to figure out where the
           | macro becomes the quantum.
        
         | bollu wrote:
         | The math of QM underpins so much of modern technology, like
         | transistors, MRIs, high precision clocks..
         | 
         | I feel like there's been a humongous failure of science
         | communication if the applications of QM aren't obvious to you
         | :( I don't mean that in a mean spirited fashion, I really do
         | feel despair that someone on HN who enjoyed physics wasn't
         | shown how quantum physics has been the bedrock for so much
         | technology!
         | 
         | EDIT: quick list of places QM/quantum physics is used in the
         | real world: https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/quantum-
         | science-e...
        
           | kungito wrote:
           | Of course if QM is a current ly valid theory that it can be
           | found in many of these examples but we don't really need to
           | know about QM or the way it works to have a microwave oven or
           | semiconductors. You don't use QM when modelling relevant
           | things to get a semiconductor working, at least not the ones
           | we were taught at college. My point being is I understand QM
           | apparently underlies everything but do we ever really care? I
           | did hear though that for current cutting edge semiconductors
           | they have to take into account QM
        
       | grendelt wrote:
       | Just admit it, you kept losing your information.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | formerkrogemp wrote:
       | A few of my friends in school went into physics very starry eyed
       | and excited. They worked in academia. Then, they worked for space
       | startups and NASA. Now they work in "business intelligence" and
       | the tech ad business. I do enjoy Sabine's writing and
       | perspective. I miss my friends' aspirations and enthusiasm for
       | physics and space.
        
       | morelandjs wrote:
       | She's exactly right. Any science discovery that's worth its salt
       | is falsifiable. If you can't validate your results there's a
       | problem. It's the responsibility of every theorist to make
       | testable predictions, and to communicate to experimentalists how
       | they might be tested.
       | 
       | There's frankly not enough pressure within the theory community
       | to disregard cagey theorists that actively avoid testing their
       | predictions, or disregard the importance of testing in general.
        
         | bsedlm wrote:
         | This is a limitation of science.
         | 
         | The issue I see, is how to continue to study such purely
         | theoretical matters?
         | 
         | Why should everything have to be testable (and thus,
         | potentially developed into a marketable product)?
         | 
         | It may not be science, but a lot of people still like to do
         | that kind of theoretical work.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | Well, you can do maths research. That doesn't need to be
           | testable, only self-consistent. However, number theorists
           | don't come and say they've uncovered some grand mystery of
           | the cosmos when they prove something about trans-finite
           | numbers, unlike many theoretical physicists.
        
             | morelandjs wrote:
             | Exactly. A lot of amazing math has come out of string
             | theory.
        
           | morelandjs wrote:
           | Here's the problem I see with it. Say you take multiple "top
           | tier" theoreticians and task them with the same physical
           | problem. Suppose they all make slightly different starting
           | assumptions, and these assumptions lead to mutually
           | incompatible conclusions. Which one is right? Who do we
           | believe?
           | 
           | The whole point of testing theories is there can only be "one
           | truth". If you let theories run rampant without testing you
           | end up in logically inconsistent chaos.
           | 
           | All that said, theories should certainly be given time to
           | grow when experimental validation is not immediately
           | available. However, there's many in the community that take
           | great liberty with that long leash to the detriment of
           | physics progress.
        
         | tappaseater wrote:
         | Well Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen was published in 1935. Bell's
         | Theorem was published in 1964. Bell's wasn't tested
         | experimentally until 1972, by which time it was largely
         | forgotten except for creative fellow who worked out a way to
         | test it.
         | 
         | I think having testability as a qualification for theory might
         | not serve us well.
         | 
         | It blows my mind how much we have deduced about black holes in
         | 100+ years, yet it was only very recently that we could
         | actually "see" one. Would hate to lose that.
        
           | Zamicol wrote:
           | I've always considered Bell's solution somewhat obvious.
           | 
           | It wasn't team Einstein's responsibility to propose a
           | solution, his motive was a rebuttal.
           | 
           | The fact that it went unstated for 30 years, Einstein died in
           | 1955, reflected poorly on team Heisenberg.
        
       | mungal wrote:
       | Sabine's niche seems to be a confident cynicism or learned
       | skepticism and is a much appreciated addition to the space.
       | 
       | I like Sabine's personality and the fact she stands in defiance
       | of the status quo of scientific outreach, namely my two least
       | favorite tropes: "science is fun" and "let me explain something
       | using terrible metaphors because I fail to understand the math
       | myself".
       | 
       | Sabine, if you're reading this... please create more technical
       | content.
       | 
       | Maybe a companion video to your more general takes.
       | 
       | One that shows the numerical side of things. Your experience and
       | personality already lend itself to this effort.
       | 
       | You say "the math is insufficient" show us the math! Show us how
       | it's insufficient using numerical examples.
       | 
       | Scientific outreach has a real "draw the rest of the owl" problem
       | and I think Sabine is perfectly poised to fill the gap.
       | 
       | There's a George Carlin quote I'll paraphrase ~"never talk down
       | to your audience, they'll catch up eventually."
        
         | squeaky-clean wrote:
         | Check out the youtube channel Physics Explained. I don't think
         | you can get much simpler than his videos yet still be numeric.
         | They're great videos though, not pop-sci at all and his
         | explanations are great. But don't expect something you can
         | watch casually.
        
         | paufib wrote:
        
         | bsder wrote:
         | > Sabine's niche seems to be a confident cynicism or learned
         | skepticism and is a much appreciated addition to the space.
         | 
         | I think Sabine has settled into a niche with a few other
         | physicists of "If you don't even have a _hope_ of testing your
         | theory, what 's the point? Let's direct those resources into
         | things that can be tested sometime in the next century."
         | 
         | Theoretical physics seems to have a few arenas where it has
         | just completely left the realm of reality. It's not even like
         | "Well, maybe we can test these in a few years when technology
         | gets better" but more like "We would need 15 orders of
         | magnitude more energy than exists in the universe to test
         | this."
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | If you think numerical examples would help you probably need to
         | read a quantum field theory book and understand that this is
         | really complicated stuff.
         | 
         | Physicists for the most part aren't talking down spiritually,
         | they're just talking to the equivalent of a child.
        
           | mungal wrote:
           | I made sure to say "outreach" stead "education".
           | 
           | I think it's a paradox to say "you need to be fully educated
           | on a subject to engage with an explanation intended for lay
           | people".
        
           | sandpaper26 wrote:
           | There's a wonderful textbook, I think by Griffiths, that
           | starts from the premise that if you learn the math of quantum
           | mechanics first (i.e. how to actually set up and solve
           | relevant systems of equations) then it's much easier to learn
           | the meaning and implications after. It gives you a lot of
           | problems up front to give you a rock-solid grounding in
           | numerical examples, and only in part 2 does he delve into
           | what it all _means_.
        
             | vmilner wrote:
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introduction_to_Quantum_Mec
             | h...
        
             | peteradio wrote:
             | Yes indeed, very early on it shows the equivalence of
             | summing over position/momentum states. Depending on the
             | desired answer one is much easier to calculate.
        
             | mhh__ wrote:
             | His book on elementary particles perhaps?
             | 
             | I think there's a General Relativity book that does the
             | same thing only with the schwarzchild solution, but I'm not
             | sure who wrote it.
        
         | rrss wrote:
         | > Scientific outreach has a real "draw the rest of the owl"
         | problem
         | 
         | It seems like this is just the "you need to study the problem
         | and it's dependencies for many years to understand the physics
         | and mathematical details" problem. Which does not actually seem
         | like much of a problem to be solved, just a reality.
         | 
         | Your example in the other comment depends on linear algebra, so
         | ~first year undergraduate of most technical fields. IMO that's
         | fundamentally more accessible than the black hole information
         | paradox, with its dependencies on general relativity and
         | quantum field theory.
         | 
         | I'm sure more technical videos and posts could be made about
         | this, but how small would the target audience be?
        
           | mungal wrote:
           | I wonder if we're in agreement?
           | 
           | The key word is 'numerical'.
           | 
           | Maybe you've yet to see or do numerical analysis of both
           | general relativity and quantum field theory but they are in
           | fact both linear algebra.
           | 
           | Which as you point out is "fundamentally more accessible".
        
             | lkrubner wrote:
             | General relativity is linear algebra? Has anyone called up
             | Tullio Levi-Civita and told him that his services will no
             | longer be necessary?
        
               | mungal wrote:
               | I've seen this sort of reactionary response in
               | mathematics and music as well.
               | 
               | When talking to a musical educator complaining about
               | struggling students just starting out I'll say "I found
               | it extremely helpful to paint the C major scale on my
               | guitar when learning music theory."
               | 
               | And they respond "Well what about chromatic 12 pitch
               | atonal music?! What would Anton Webern say?!"
        
               | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
               | In GR terms, Levi-Civita is more like "This is a major
               | scale and you need to know it" than serialism.
               | 
               | Some subjects are _just plain hard_ and only accessible
               | to smart persistent people.
               | 
               | GR and QFT definitely qualify - but they seem to be warm
               | up exercises compared to whatever Quantum Gravity will
               | eventually become.
        
               | sidlls wrote:
               | Eh, no. The problem with your analogy is that the "not
               | linear algebra" bits aren't esoteric, rarely practiced or
               | used edge cases: they're the core of the mathematical
               | model.
        
               | wumpus wrote:
               | As someone who has studied GR (at the grad school level)
               | and music, no, that's a terrible analogy.
        
             | mhh__ wrote:
             | They're both what now?
        
               | mungal wrote:
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensor
        
               | pfortuny wrote:
               | A tensor is a differential structure with pointwise
               | linear properties. But the important thing is not the
               | pointwise behavior but the differential nature of the
               | "family of tensors in non-Euclidean space".
        
               | mhh__ wrote:
               | That's very weak
        
             | pfortuny wrote:
             | I guess you are mistaking the "local linear nature" of
             | tensors for differential geometry. GR is certainly not
             | "linear algebra".
        
             | oefrha wrote:
             | As a physicist who used to work on unifying QFT and
             | gravity, no, QFT is not accessible _at all_ , to anyone.
             | General relativity is kind of accessible to a non-physics
             | student if they otherwise have a strong math background,
             | which is like 0.001% of the population, optimistically.
        
               | sonofaragorn wrote:
               | All these topics are so advanced that even for someone
               | trained in one it would take years to become proficient
               | in the other.
               | 
               | Source: I'm a Physics PhD
        
               | wiz21c wrote:
               | 0.001% is already about 800_000 people :-)
        
             | rrss wrote:
             | No, just because general relativity and quantum field
             | theory use linear algebra does not mean they are linear
             | algebra.
        
             | noslenwerdna wrote:
             | General relativity is not linear algebra. Just glancing at
             | the underlying equations, you can see they are non linear.
             | [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein_tensor]
             | 
             | The same is true for quantum field theory. I'm curious why
             | you're so confident that they are "in fact both linear
             | algebra"
        
             | WhitneyLand wrote:
             | >Maybe you've yet to see or do numerical analysis of both
             | >general relativity and quantum field theory
             | 
             | I call you out. Don't think you've done either one after
             | reading your comments.
        
         | in3d wrote:
         | I find PBS Space Time to be superior to her videos in pretty
         | much every case.
         | 
         | https://youtube.com/c/pbsspacetime
        
         | gotaquestion wrote:
         | > "let me explain something using terrible metaphors because I
         | fail to understand the math myself".
         | 
         | Some of these channels have millions of viewers, and the one I
         | think you are referring to has 11M. Remember when the Reimann
         | Zeta function summation of -1/12 was all the rage, or the
         | Banach-Tarsky paradox? Google either of those and there are a
         | dozen YouTube videos for each one. These are post-doctoral
         | topics that become name-dropping buzzwords, I would never claim
         | to understand these, yet people who watched the video do.
         | 
         | Which seems like a lot what the internet has given us:
         | information, not knowledge. To quote a speaker I saw at
         | Siggraph in ~1996, "Information is not power, knowledge is
         | power." This hit home. We've seen it from people reading WebMD
         | in the 2000's and then trying to teach their doctors, to the
         | crazy scientific ignorance about mask mandates today. All
         | because of internet edutainment or in the worst-case
         | misinformation.
         | 
         | Anyway, yes, her article got cynical fast, but I think it was
         | because she bounded with realism because plotted on the arch of
         | technology evolution: it would take thousands of generations
         | (even at an exponential pace) to create tech that can take
         | actual measurements. That seems like good science to me.
        
           | gus_massa wrote:
           | I agree that most videos in YouTube simplify the problem too
           | much or are just wrong. My recommendations anyway:
           | 
           | * Mathologer: " _Ramanujan: Making sense of 1+2+3+... = -1
           | /12 and Co._" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcKRGpMiVTw
           | 
           | * Vsauce: " _The Banach-Tarski Paradox_ "
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s86-Z-CbaHA
           | 
           | Each one is like half an hour long, but you may need to pause
           | them and rewatch them a few times to understand the details.
        
             | gotaquestion wrote:
             | Yes, I've watched both of those. Mathologer is in the biz
             | of math, Vsauce is in the biz of ka-ching.
        
               | mardifoufs wrote:
               | I don't think the vsauce channel is egregiously
               | monetized. He sometimes does not upload for months or
               | even years, and does not make the most clickbaity videos
               | out there. He could've easily been much bigger than
               | veritasium, in terms of monthly views, if he wanted to by
               | just making the same type of videos as he used to do (
               | the broad mishmash videos that I really really liked
               | honestly).
               | 
               | The fact that he didn't, to me, indicates he is obviously
               | not in the business of making money.
        
           | ramraj07 wrote:
           | I am a fan of her work and videos but saying We will never
           | make experimental progress on the black hole paradox for TEN
           | THOUSAND years seems myopic at best. Does she not instantly
           | realize how long that is? Unless we nuke ourselves out of it,
           | I see us as an interstellar civilization easily within
           | 100-200 years. That's being conservative. I'd be surprised if
           | we don't have probes looking around the nearest black holes
           | or even creating ones experimentally in double or triple
           | digit years from today.
        
         | edgyquant wrote:
         | It isn't talking down to your audience to relate that
         | mathematical logic to them in understandable ways. A lot of
         | people are curious about physics or astronomy but don't have
         | the time or energy to learn high level math to do so.
        
         | mungal wrote:
         | I'll add to this to give an example of someone who I feel is
         | doing a great job of satisfying this very request in the field
         | of mathematics: Timothy Gowers.
         | 
         | His yt channel is an excellent resource of theoretical
         | understanding through numerical methods.
         | 
         | Here's my favorite series where he confirms/elucidates a
         | "strange" theoretical fact with an explorative numerical style:
         | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=byjhpzEoXFs
         | 
         | Simply superb content.
        
         | morelandjs wrote:
         | I'll just add that I appreciate her cynicism because there is a
         | staggering amount of bullshit in the high energy theory
         | community. Embracing creativity is absolutely paramount, but
         | people need to grow up and accept their own theory failures
         | when they occur.
        
         | aeonik wrote:
         | Completely agreed. I was skeptical about her at first. My first
         | exposure to her was the panel interview hosted by PBS Space
         | Time "Theories of Everything" https://youtu.be/N_aN8NnoeO0
         | 
         | At first I thought she was biased because she was was so
         | skeptical about almost every point during the discussion, but
         | her logic and arguments were all so solid and well thought out,
         | they were impossible to ignore.
         | 
         | I checked out her channel, and she was the first YouTuber that
         | I found who actually explained the syntax of Quantum Mechanics
         | equations and what Kets are. https://youtu.be/ctXDXABJRtg
         | 
         | More detailed content would be greatly welcomed from her.
        
           | qsdf38100 wrote:
           | She seems to be after some hidden truth that "scientists" are
           | not telling us. I'd be more appreciative of her insights if
           | those were not implying we've been lied to. She should
           | consider that 1. Being wrong is ok, doesn't mean someone's
           | lying. 2. Maybe she is wrong. 3. Interpretations of quantum
           | mechanics are fun and there's nothing to be angry at. So I'm
           | a bit skeptical about her skepticism, it doesn't sound
           | constructive to me.
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | She makes very specific points on what can and can't be
             | reasonably treated as a scientific problem. Her main
             | concern appears to be that much physics research and
             | funding has deviated towards mathematical philosophy. Work
             | which _may_ be correct, but is untestable and ultimately
             | unscientific.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | I read the article. I've read other articles of hers as
             | well. And I don't read her that way at all.
             | 
             | What she primarily is, is someone who insists on
             | experimental data as an anchor for physical theories. She's
             | not totally against theory that isn't backed by experiment
             | (despite her last paragraph or two), but given multiple
             | competing theories that cannot be experimentally verified,
             | she is unwilling to accept any one of them as "the truth".
             | I don't think she's wrong in that.
        
             | johnny22 wrote:
             | this is exactly my problem with the way she does things.
        
           | billfruit wrote:
           | Doesn't Feynman Lectures book III explain kets fairly well?
        
             | hobo_mark wrote:
             | Feynman was a YouTuber?
        
               | mbaytas wrote:
               | Feynman most probably would be a youtuber if he were
               | alive.
               | 
               | Even posthumously he's been one of the most popular
               | educators on youtube.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | Have you read 'Surely You're Joking Mr Feynman'? Dude was
               | a youtuber physicist in a world where youtube didn't
               | exist.
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | Somebody put his lectures up on YouTube a long time ago.
               | 
               | If "person who's content is available on YouTube"
               | qualifies one as a YouTuber, then yes
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | I think generally "YouTuber" is taken to mean somebody
               | who is building particular YouTube personality/brand
               | thing.
               | 
               | But even if we want to be very general and just parse it
               | using default English, the -er suffix would mean someone
               | who is doing something. I believe it would be more
               | accurate to say Feynman was YouTubed.
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | How did you go from "Feynman Lectures Book III" to
               | "Youtube"? billfruit was asking about a _book_.
        
           | IG_Semmelweiss wrote:
           | Here is my first exposure to her. Its an in depth discusson
           | on her own book. She does strike me as very cynical.
           | 
           | https://www.econtalk.org/sabine-hossenfelder-on-physics-
           | real...
        
         | zone411 wrote:
         | Her video on the Simulation Hypothesis was very poor
         | https://lech.substack.com/p/sabine-hossenfelders-video-
         | the-s....
        
         | wildmanx wrote:
         | > Sabine's niche seems to be a confident cynicism or learned
         | skepticism and is a much appreciated addition to the space.
         | 
         | While I also appreciate a healthy dose of skepticism, and in
         | weaker moments I can also get very cynical, this is not a very
         | constructive attitude to science or life in general. If we were
         | all doing science like that, we'd not have gotten anywhere.
         | 
         | As mentioned elsewhere in this discussion, a "solution" will
         | not only consist of a theory that "solves" the problem in the
         | sense that Sabine described, but even propose experiments that
         | can actually be executed within a time frame (and budget) in
         | order to validate the theory. Just because her colleagues (and
         | Sabine herself) have failed at that so far should not be a
         | reason to give up. With that attitude, there wouldn't be much
         | science left today.
        
           | conformist wrote:
           | I'm not sure whether her cynicism is helpful or not. But,
           | style aside, it seems like it's mainly a function of whether
           | her subfield as a whole skews optimistic?
           | 
           | It seems like her impression is that (parts of) the high
           | energy theory community are too optimistic to an extent where
           | they unintentionally or intentionally deceive the public (who
           | are ultimately funding science through taxes).
           | 
           | If that's correct, perhaps it can be beneficial for science
           | as a whole to provide a counterbalance?
        
             | johnny22 wrote:
             | >> It seems like her impression is that (parts of) the high
             | energy theory community are too optimistic to an extent
             | where they unintentionally or intentionally deceive the
             | public (who are ultimately funding science through taxes).
             | 
             | This is a fair take. I really appreciate it. Sometimes i'm
             | too cynical about the motivations of the folks being
             | cynical :)
        
           | Ar-Curunir wrote:
           | Yeah, cynicism is actually terrible for science, and as a
           | result many scientists aren't overly cynical. I think it's
           | something that happens as folks mature: they tend to look for
           | the positives in papers, rather than the negatives.
           | 
           | This has certainly been my experience in cryptography: as a
           | student you often start off proposing schemes which get
           | broken by your advisor/collaborators (not out of malice, but
           | just because broken schemes are broken), and so you learn to
           | react to novel ideas with "how is this broken?". However, as
           | you mature, you realize that all new correct ideas arise from
           | the ashes of many broken attempts, and so your reaction
           | slowly changes to "how can I fix this?", leading to an
           | overall more positive outlook on both your work as well as
           | others' work.
        
             | ramraj07 wrote:
             | You are partially correct, absolute cynicism would mean
             | that you would see the possibility that any hypothesis can
             | be wrong before testing it so you'd just not do any
             | experiment at all. So you do need to be optimistic.
             | 
             | But that's not what most scientists do today. They are
             | cynics masquerading (even to themselves) as optimists. They
             | have preprogrammed themselves to never even think of a
             | question that has a good chance of failing, modern academia
             | has collectively programmed them all to only ask questions
             | that never have a real chance of being false to begin with.
             | So just softball niche questions or in the case of the
             | videos topic, reformulate the question in a way so that the
             | answer doesn't fundamentally solve the real problem. Both
             | because the real problem might be unsolvable and also
             | because if you solve the problem then you have fired
             | yourself from yoUr job.
             | 
             | Now you might think I and Sabine and others are just
             | shitting on scientists doing the work, but many of us are
             | only doing so after wasting decades with this establishment
             | and giving up. Perhaps you can see that for yourself
             | earlier and save yourself a lifetime.
        
         | willis936 wrote:
         | To me it seems more like she failed at creation and found an
         | easier path forward in arson.
         | 
         | In a world where FUD spreads faster than truth and not everyone
         | is an expert in every topic: her work does as much, if not
         | more, harm than good. Particularly in fields she is not an
         | expert in.
        
       | alophawen wrote:
       | I love Sabine. I find her one of the few sober and rational
       | voices on youtube.
       | 
       | Maybe it is her direct and confrontative way that scares off some
       | americans? I'd say she comes out like a sterotype german :-)
        
       | senectus1 wrote:
       | is it rude to post the TL;DR?
       | 
       | >And that's why I stopped working on the black hole information
       | loss paradox. Not because it's unsolvable. But because you can't
       | solve this problem with mathematics alone, and experiments are
       | not possible, not now and probably not in the next 10000 years.
        
         | fijiaarone wrote:
         | Unobservable phenomena by hypothetical objects with
         | contradictory arbitrary rules that have no effect on reality.
        
           | azernik wrote:
           | A quibble - these objects are not just hypothetical. We have
           | images and other evidence of some particularly large ones.
           | 
           | It's the exact rules that are hypothetical.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | But we cannot observe Hawking radiation without having, on
             | hand, a black hole small enough to be hotter than the CMB
             | -- or that can be enclosed and protected from it, and the
             | enclosure itself cooled below it, _and_ in a vacuum so hard
             | as not to any have atoms to fall in.
             | 
             | All tall orders.
        
         | The_rationalist wrote:
        
       | jvanderbot wrote:
       | Do all black holes with the same mass and other 'hairless'
       | parameters (momentum, etc) have the same temp and therefore
       | radiation emissions? If so, can we remotely measure mass from
       | this?
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | Except in the real world for any black hole we observe (stellar
         | mass or larger) that temperature is much lower than the cosmic
         | microwave background so that you won't see it.
         | 
         | A stellar black hole floating out between the galaxies would
         | not be evaporating now but rather slowly gaining energy from
         | the CMB. The universal will have to expand for a long time
         | before it gets cooler than black holes.
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | But, my main question: Do they all have the same temp, given
           | all other main parameters?
        
             | WJW wrote:
             | That depends on if they have hair or not, but nobody knows
             | whether they do and it would be extremely impractical to
             | experimentally verify such a thing. That's what the article
             | is all about.
             | 
             | If they don't have hair then yes, you should be able to
             | estimate mass by measuring their temperature. You would
             | also need to know how far it is though, so that you could
             | compensate for redshift.
        
               | jvanderbot wrote:
               | OK, that makes sense.
               | 
               | In reading TFA I was just kind of blown away that temp,
               | mass, angular momentum, etc, are all so closely tied
               | together.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | Note that they are so closely tied together _for black
               | holes_ , not necessarily for other types of objects.
               | Black holes in the GR description are probably simpler
               | than some elementary particles even.
               | 
               | However, it's important to note that the GR description
               | is itself not exactly self-consistent, as the curvature
               | is divergent at the center of the black hole (it is
               | infinite, I believe?).
        
         | Ma8ee wrote:
         | No, small black holes are hotter than big black holes.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | Black holes of the same mass (and angular momentum and
           | charge) have the same size.
        
             | Ma8ee wrote:
             | Of course. I apparently read the question to fast.
        
       | snowwrestler wrote:
       | If you change assumptions to solve a big problem, you don't
       | necessarily need to measure the big problem to check the
       | assumptions. General Relativity itself was first confirmed with a
       | relatively simple measurement of star displacement during a solar
       | eclipse.
       | 
       | The "real solution" to the black hole information paradox will be
       | one that solves the paradox AND provides a "small" way to test
       | the change in assumptions that creates the big solution. This is
       | definitely worth looking for IMO.
        
         | im3w1l wrote:
         | Totally agree. And it may even be that the small thing comes
         | first. That we happen to observe some weird shit in a different
         | domain, and once we shuffle assumptions around to fit
         | observations we get black holes for free.
        
         | nemothekid wrote:
         | > _provides a "small" way to test the change in assumptions
         | that creates the big solution_
         | 
         | Isn't this the problem. Unless we discover some primordial
         | black holes, all black holes we currently know about are way
         | too cold, and will be way too cold for billions of years, to
         | test anything.
         | 
         | GR predicted black holes, but GR wasn't about black holes, and
         | there were plenty of other things you could test.
        
       | zackmorris wrote:
       | This is a good post with all of the right reasons to be
       | skeptical. However, with the really fringe stuff like this, I
       | feel that the answers could come through intuition.
       | 
       | On that note, her central premise is that we can't study black
       | holes. But I'm feeling more and more convinced that the universe
       | itself is inside of a black hole. If that's the case, then maybe
       | we can study the inside after all.
       | 
       | On a whim, I searched for "hawking radiation hubble constant" and
       | stumbled onto a bunch of stuff like this (the Download PDF button
       | works):
       | 
       | https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0017/v2
       | 
       | I'm not a physicist, but if I assemble a bunch of ideas, I can
       | make a bunch of insights like: if black holes evaporate faster as
       | they shrink, then maybe galaxies slipping outside of our
       | observable universe is causing it to become less massive, which
       | is increasing its rate of expansion. Someday we may see
       | everything shooting away from our reference point faster and
       | faster until we ourselves pop, like reversed spaghettification.
       | 
       | But then again, that doesn't seem quite right, because the
       | galaxies slipping away from us faster than the speed of light
       | probably don't experience anything catastrophic themselves. And
       | also the galaxies might not actually be moving away, just more
       | space has been constructed between us and them like a balloon
       | stretching. I feel like without a solid understanding of this
       | process, it's going to be hard to understand black holes.
        
       | visionscaper wrote:
       | I don't know much about the black hole information loss problem
       | and I do like Sabine's skepticism. However, saying it has no use
       | to work on mathematical solutions in this area is taking it one
       | step too far. Maybe, based on the solutions other (indirect)
       | experiments can be devised, maybe it will help solve other
       | Physics, mathematics or engineering problems in the future.
        
       | sytelus wrote:
       | TLDR; There exist many solutions, none of them experimentally
       | verifiable and hence the pointless debate continues.
        
       | spekcular wrote:
       | This seems like a fully general (and somewhat unconvincing)
       | argument against doing theoretical physics. The key paragraphs
       | are:
       | 
       | "What's going to happen with this new solution? Most likely,
       | someone's going to find a problem with it, and everyone will
       | continue working on their own solution. Indeed, there's a good
       | chance that by the time this video appears this has already
       | happened. For me, the real paradox is why they keep doing it. I
       | guess they do it because they have been told so often this is a
       | big problem that they believe if they solve it they'll be
       | considered geniuses. But of course their colleagues will never
       | agree that they solved the problem to begin with. So by all
       | chances, half a year from now you'll see another headline
       | claiming that the problem has been solved.
       | 
       | And that's why I stopped working on the black hole information
       | loss paradox. Not because it's unsolvable. But because you can't
       | solve this problem with mathematics alone, and experiments are
       | not possible, not now and probably not in the next 10000 years."
       | 
       | First, let's grant that no experimental evidence will be
       | forthcoming in thousands of years. (It's conceivable to me that
       | some astronomers will get lucky and provide some indirect
       | evidence of some sort, but ignore this for now.)
       | 
       | Why do we believe that this problem can't be solved, or at least
       | profitably investigated, with mathematics (and physical
       | intuition, and the rest of the experimental evidence we have
       | about black holes - it's definitely not "mathematics alone")? At
       | least in principle, one can imagine that there is a finite set of
       | possible solutions (corresponding to dropping various
       | assumptions, as she mentions earlier in the article), and all but
       | one of those can be ruled out a priori via mathematical
       | inconsistencies, a contradiction with physical evidence from non-
       | black hole phenomena, or other undesirable properties.
       | 
       | Maybe there are special features of the black hole information
       | problem that make this impossible. But this overall mode of
       | mathematical investigation is how theoretical physics works and
       | has always worked. Einstein discovered general relativity by
       | tweaking assumptions and deducing the theory was likely to be
       | true because it resolved various issues, but we had no direct
       | test [edit: of gravitational waves] for about 100 years. It would
       | have been unfortunate if he concluded the problem was pointless
       | to work on because no experimental evidence would manifest within
       | his lifetime.
       | 
       | (Example problem fixed by Einstein:
       | https://aether.lbl.gov/www/classes/p10/gr/Precessionperiheli...)
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | I don't think Sabine claims that we can't possibly discover a
         | testable theory that _also_ solves the black hole information
         | loss paradox. However, that doesn 't mean that investigating
         | the black hole information loss paradox problem itself is a
         | good way of arriving at that theory.
         | 
         | Theoretical physics has always been most successful when
         | investigating proven experimental inconsistencies - the
         | measured invariance of the speed of light in different rest
         | frames for special relativity, for example, or the photovoltaic
         | effect or ultraviolet catastrophe for QM.
         | 
         | Investigating other effects of quantum gravity and arriving at
         | a theory that can be tested here on Earth would potentially
         | lead to a testable theory that also provides insights into
         | black holes. Or, perhaps investigating the measurement problem
         | could lead to a more fundamental non-linear theory (which QM
         | would be only an approximation of) that would be consistent
         | with information loss.
         | 
         | These are both much lower hanging fruit than worrying about
         | effects that we have no hope of measuring (note that we can't
         | even prove that burning a book doesn't lose information - it's
         | just easier to explain where the information could, in
         | principle, be going, but it's still impossible to measure with
         | current or foreseeable technology).
         | 
         | Your example of gravitational waves is exactly on the money for
         | this. If instead of focusing on the inertial & gravitational
         | mass equality "coincidence" and on gravity's effect on light,
         | Einstein had tried to come up with a model for gravitation
         | waves as the only thing he investigated, chances are he would
         | not have arrived at GR. Perhaps he would have arrived at some
         | SR + gravity waves theory that would have taken 100 years or
         | more to disprove, and missed all the other insights.
        
           | spekcular wrote:
           | Was ultraviolet catastrophe really an experimental
           | inconsistency? It seems to best understood as a theoretical
           | inconsistency: The theory predicts a diverging (infinite)
           | value, which we know would be wrong regardless of what the
           | experimental evidence is. It's a mathematical problem, not an
           | empirical one. You also give the example of "the measured
           | invariance of the speed of light in different rest frames,"
           | but Einstein claims SR was motivated by the invariance of
           | Maxwell's equations (a theoretical consideration), not e.g.
           | Michelson-Morley. So it sure seems that investigating
           | theoretical inconsistencies has motivated a lot of good work.
           | 
           | I agree that, practically speaking, studying the black hole
           | information paradox might not be so productive. Maybe there
           | are special features of the problem that make it difficult to
           | investigate productively through theoretical considerations
           | alone. But this is not how I read Hossenfelder. Taking her
           | blog post literally, she seems to be against theoretical
           | investigations of any phenomenon (any inconsistency, etc.)
           | where experimental tests aren't forthcoming. I think this is
           | ridiculous.
           | 
           | Maybe she doesn't actually believe this, but then she needs
           | to make an argument specifically about the black hole
           | information paradox and why this particular problem is
           | unproductive, not launch a broadside on non-empirical
           | reasoning more generally.
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | > Was ultraviolet catastrophe really an experimental
             | inconsistency? It seems to best understood as a theoretical
             | inconsistency: The theory predicts a diverging (infinite)
             | value, which we know would be wrong regardless of what the
             | experimental evidence is.
             | 
             | Well, that theory also predicts that the universe can't
             | exist for very long, which is a pretty big experimental
             | inconsistency.
             | 
             | > You also give the example of "the measured invariance of
             | the speed of light in different rest frames," but Einstein
             | claims SR was motivated by the invariance of Maxwell's
             | equations (a theoretical consideration), not e.g.
             | Michelson-Morley.
             | 
             | Well, Maxwell's equations were relatively well
             | experimentally verified by other experiments, so there were
             | good reasons to at least tentatively accept their
             | prediction of a constant speed of light* in any rest frame
             | as a given. Even if the Michaelson-Morley experiment was
             | not big on his mind, it was still relatively clear that
             | this type of experiment _could_ be performed with
             | technology already available at the time, as the speed of
             | light had been measured with pretty good precision already
             | for a few decades.
             | 
             | So, SR was not some highly speculative theory based only on
             | extrapolating other theories, as solutions that only
             | address BHILP but not other problems of QM/GR are
             | currently.
             | 
             | * or at least of electro-magnetic radiation, not sure when
             | it became accepted light was EM radiation relative to the
             | SR paper
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | > Well, that theory also predicts that the universe can't
               | exist for very long, which is a pretty big experimental
               | inconsistency.
               | 
               | Sure, but I don't need to appeal to this fact to know
               | there's a problem that must be solved. The infinities are
               | enough.
               | 
               | > Well, Maxwell's equations were relatively well
               | experimentally verified by other experiments, so there
               | were good reasons to at least tentatively accept their
               | prediction of a constant speed of light* in any rest
               | frame as a given. Even if the Michaelson-Morley
               | experiment was not big on his mind, it was still
               | relatively clear that this type of experiment could be
               | performed with technology already available at the time,
               | as the speed of light had been measured with pretty good
               | precision already for a few decades.
               | 
               | But again, even if MM couldn't have been performed,
               | Einstein still would have had good theoretical reasons
               | (consistency with Maxwell's equations) to posit SR. And
               | indeed, this was the path the discovery seems to have
               | actually taken.
               | 
               | > So, SR was not some highly speculative theory based
               | only on extrapolating other theories, as solutions that
               | only address BHILP but not other problems of QM/GR are
               | currently.
               | 
               | Sure, but this is a difference in degree, not in kind.
               | You accept that theoretical arguments for new phenomena
               | that are not directly testable (at present) are
               | acceptable if they're convincing enough. The question
               | about BHILP under this view (which I agree with) is then
               | about how convincing the theoretical arguments are.
               | 
               | Hossenfelder, taken literally, suggests that no
               | theoretical arguments will ever good enough in the
               | absence of empirical evidence.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | > Sure, but I don't need to appeal to this fact to know
               | there's a problem that must be solved. The infinities are
               | enough.
               | 
               | By that logic, you shouldn't believe in black holes / GR
               | at all, right? In practice, we can always replace
               | infinities with some arbitrarily large numbers that don't
               | grow all the way to infinity because of yet-unknown
               | physics (probably quantum gravity, in the case of black
               | holes).
               | 
               | > But again, even if MM couldn't have been performed,
               | Einstein still would have had good theoretical reasons
               | (consistency with Maxwell's equations) to posit SR. And
               | indeed, this was the path the discovery seems to have
               | actually taken.
               | 
               | I don't think this would have been promising if the MM
               | experiment seemed a hundred years away, and in general I
               | don't think SR would have been as compelling in that
               | case. I suspect we would have still had arguments about
               | an aether if experiments on the speed of light in
               | different inertial frames had remained beyond reach.
               | 
               | > Sure, but this is a difference in degree, not in kind.
               | You accept that theoretical arguments for new phenomena
               | that are not directly testable (at present) are
               | acceptable if they're convincing enough. The question
               | about BHILP under this view (which I agree with) is then
               | about how convincing the theoretical arguments are.
               | 
               | Sure, it's a difference in degree in the end. The
               | plausibility of having an experiment "soon" is the degree
               | here. I don't think that Hossenfelder would argue that if
               | an experiment is only possible 2 years from now, or maybe
               | even 20 years from now, you shouldn't work on some
               | theoretical subject. But, when that time horizon
               | stretches well beyond your lifetime and the lifetime of
               | your students, it's perhaps time to reconsider.
               | 
               | I also know for sure she doesn't have a problem with
               | doing theoretical research where you don't yet know how
               | something would be testable, as long as you plan to
               | define an experiment as well. She explains this in some
               | detail when discussing her own work on superdeterminism -
               | where she plans to first define a concrete model, and
               | then come up with experiments which could invalidate that
               | particular model - instead of giving up a priori because
               | "there's no known way to test such a theory".
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | > By that logic, you shouldn't believe in black holes /
               | GR at all, right? In practice, we can always replace
               | infinities with some arbitrarily large numbers that don't
               | grow all the way to infinity because of yet-unknown
               | physics (probably quantum gravity, in the case of black
               | holes).
               | 
               | I don't see how this follows. The ultraviolet catastrophe
               | (or other divergences) says we have to fix something, it
               | doesn't say that we should choose a weird ad hoc fix.
               | 
               | > I don't think this would have been promising if the MM
               | experiment seemed a hundred years away, and in general I
               | don't think SR would have been as compelling in that
               | case.
               | 
               | It probably wouldn't have been as compelling, I agree.
               | Don't get me wrong; the gold standard is empirical
               | evidence. But the invariance arguments and procession of
               | mercury would be grounds for taking it seriously.
               | Einstein's argument for the theory depends only weakly on
               | MM.
               | 
               | > Sure, it's a difference in degree in the end. The
               | plausibility of having an experiment "soon" is the degree
               | here. I don't think that Hossenfelder would argue that if
               | an experiment is only possible 2 years from now, or maybe
               | even 20 years from now, you shouldn't work on some
               | theoretical subject. But, when that time horizon
               | stretches well beyond your lifetime and the lifetime of
               | your students, it's perhaps time to reconsider.
               | 
               | This seems like an unnecessarily narrow view of what
               | constitutes worthwhile physics. First, because the
               | experimentalists are very clever, and there's no knowing
               | what indirect tests they might propose. But mainly
               | because, if we can make theoretical progress on an
               | important question, why not do that (even if empirical
               | data is not forthcoming)? This view suggests that a
               | physicist in 1915 (or 1925, etc.) should not try to work
               | out properties of gravitational waves, for example, which
               | seems obviously ridiculous to me. (The direct
               | confirmation came about 100 years later.) If the
               | theoretical motivation for doing so is solid, why not?
               | 
               | I agree that BHILP paradox is probably a different case,
               | one where we might really have no shot of saying
               | something useful theoretically. But this requires getting
               | into the specific details of BHILP. These general
               | statements about what is and isn't good physics because
               | of near-future testability all seem clearly suspect.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | > I don't see how this follows. The ultraviolet
               | catastrophe (or other divergences) says we have to fix
               | something, it doesn't say that we should choose a weird
               | ad hoc fix.
               | 
               | My point was that we have accepted GR even though we know
               | it implies a divergence at the center of a black hole,
               | which we know exists. We assume the math is probably
               | mostly right, we do have a huge curvature at that point,
               | but it can't be literally infinite. We assume that if we
               | had a slightly better theory (probably quantum gravity)
               | that would fix the divergence without changing too much
               | else.
               | 
               | By contrast, we couldn't say "the theory that predicts
               | the ultraviolet catastrophe is mostly right, we're just
               | missing a tiny piece to stop the divergence", because we
               | had good experimental evidence that atoms don't collapse
               | almost very quickly at all. So, while the infinity alone
               | was a motivation to look for a better theory, it was the
               | extreme contradiction with experiment that motivated a
               | fundamentally different theory instead of an adjustment.
               | 
               | > But the invariance arguments and procession of mercury
               | would be grounds for taking it seriously. Einstein's
               | argument for the theory depends only weakly on MM.
               | 
               | Looking this up some more, I had a mistaken impression.
               | The independence of the speed of light from the velocity
               | of the source was already relatively well established by
               | 1905 - in fact, this was part of the motivation for
               | Maxwell's equations from 1865. Maxwell's equations had
               | been thoroughly tested and were well accepted, especially
               | because of experiments by Hertz in 1900. However, the
               | dominant concept was still that light is a wave in the
               | luminiferous ether - but several attempts to measure the
               | interaction with this ether had produced null results.
               | Even what we now call the Lorentz factor had been
               | experimentally measured through experiments on the speed
               | of light in a moving medium (then thought to be a drag
               | coefficient between the medium and the ether).
               | 
               | Einstein then came up with the idea that constancy of the
               | speed of light should apply in any reference frame, not
               | just some special frame defined by the ether. That means
               | that not only is the speed of light independent of the
               | speed of the source (which isn't that strange for a
               | wave), but it's also independent of the speed of the
               | _observer_. This was only experimentally proven much
               | later, in 1932, by the Kennedy-Thorndike experiment.
               | 
               | Still, SR followed from theories that were well proven
               | empirically, and had obvious experiments that could
               | falsify it.
               | 
               | > This view suggests that a physicist in 1915 (or 1925,
               | etc.) should not try to work out properties of
               | gravitational waves, for example, which seems obviously
               | ridiculous to me.
               | 
               | Well, I think here there is a difference between trying
               | to work out consequences of an otherwise well-established
               | theory (such as working out exactly how gravitational
               | waves would look like in GR, or arguing based on
               | Maxwell's equations) and trying to come up with a new
               | theory that modifies existing ones (such as grand
               | unification or some solutions to BHILP).
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | The mathematical development of non-Euclidean geometry required
         | for Einstein's general relativity took place over the previous
         | century and really changed people's thinking. From Poincare
         | 1905, chapter on non-Eucliden space, the conclusion was then:
         | 
         | > "In other words, the axioms of geometry (I do not speak of
         | those of arithmetic) are only definitions in disguise. What,
         | then, are we to think of the question: Is Euclidean geometry
         | true? It has no meaning. We might as well ask if the metric
         | system is true, and if the old weights and measures are false;
         | if Cartesian co-ordinates are true and polar co-ordinates
         | false. One geometry cannot be more true than another; it can
         | only be more convenient."
         | 
         | https://www.gutenberg.org/files/37157/37157-pdf.pdf
         | 
         | Prior to those developments by Riemann etc., people like Kant
         | claimed space was flat, as there was no other possible
         | mathematically consistent geometrical option:
         | 
         | https://www.ln.edu.hk/philoso/staff/sesardic/Kant.html
         | 
         | This is all comparable to a quote in the posted article:
         | 
         | > "But. There are many different ways to resolve an
         | inconsistency because there are many different assumptions you
         | can throw out. And this means there are many possible solutions
         | to the problem which are mathematically correct. But only one
         | of them will be correct in the sense of describing what indeed
         | happens in nature. Physics isn't math. Mathematics is a great
         | tool, but in the end you have to make an actual measurement to
         | see what happens in reality."
         | 
         | It would seem, then, that the study of black hole information
         | loss is more in the area of mathematics at present then it is
         | in physics, much as is the case with string theory (for which
         | Fields Medals have been awarded, but not Nobel Prizes in
         | Physics). It might however go the way of non-Euclidean geometry
         | and Einstein's general relativity at some point in the future.
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | Except that if there is a way to do the experiment, it can only
         | be found by doing theory. Push the symbols around until
         | something new falls out.
         | 
         | Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. But it seems weird to dismiss it
         | as fundamentally unsolvable.
         | 
         | I happen to agree that it's not likely to be solved, and even
         | if it is won't be terribly useful. It gets funding only because
         | it captures people's attention, for being "deep".
         | 
         | I'd love it if science funding were more rational, but that's
         | hardly confined to fundamental physics. If it were up to me
         | we'd fund theoretical physics AND a lot of other things, and
         | stop funding a lot of expensive things I dislike. But plenty of
         | people disagree, and the resulting process is inevitably
         | irrational.
         | 
         | I see no value in shaking my tiny fists at one particular set
         | of scientists over that.
        
         | goatlover wrote:
         | Without empirical evidence, I'd always be skeptical that we
         | really knew what was going in inside some unobservable region
         | of spacetime, even if the math all works out and agrees with
         | what's observable. Theoretical physics divorced from the need
         | for experimental results gives us endless string theories. It's
         | the same arguing for some interpretation of QM. You might have
         | the most convincing arguments for there being many worlds
         | making up the wavefunction, but without some way to confirm
         | that, it's metaphysics. And one mights well go all the way and
         | embrace Tegmark's mathematical universes or some simulation
         | argument. But that isn't science anymore.
         | 
         | I don't care how good the math looks. Reality isn't obligated
         | to confirm to some human aesthetic about beauty or simplicity.
         | You have to first make some metaphysical assumption that the
         | universe has to be that way. And the only way we can really
         | know is to have empirical evidence.
        
           | spekcular wrote:
           | If I told you "some unobservable region of spacetime" had to
           | display a certain feature, or there would be a mathematical
           | contradiction, would you accept that?
           | 
           | If not, would you endorse believing in gravitational waves on
           | the basis on the success of the rest of GR, before they were
           | experimentally confirmed?
        
         | FartyMcFarter wrote:
         | > This seems like a fully general (and somewhat unconvincing)
         | argument against doing theoretical physics.
         | 
         | Not exactly, since this quote definitely doesn't apply to all
         | theoretical physics:
         | 
         | > experiments are not possible, not now and probably not in the
         | next 10000 years.
        
           | spekcular wrote:
           | Einstein had no positive evidence to suggest direct tests of
           | gravitational waves would ever be possible. His arguments
           | were entirely about consistency and theoretical parsimony, as
           | are the arguments about the black hole information paradox.
           | If we take the view that we shouldn't work on physics we
           | can't test, or can't test for a very long time, then we are
           | led to the conclusion that Einstein shouldn't have worked on
           | gravitation waves. I find that conclusion untenable.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | I think that author is simply saying why they don't want to
             | work on this problem any more, not necessarily that nobody
             | else shouldn't be working on it anymore. Einstein did what
             | he wanted for his own good reasons, he was right and
             | extremely insightful on most occasions and wasn't driven to
             | 'put his name in the history books' but because he was
             | working on interesting problems. Once the problems no
             | longer seem that interesting it's time to move on.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | I disagree. The author is very pointedly saying that
               | research on this problem is worthless and a waste of
               | time. See the last paragraph, for example.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Which contains this bit: "I am not talking about this
               | because I want to change the mind of my colleagues in
               | physics."
               | 
               | That seems to be pretty clear to me.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | The full paragraph is: "Why am I telling you this? I am
               | not talking about this because I want to change the mind
               | of my colleagues in physics. They have grown up thinking
               | this is an important research question and I don't think
               | they'll change their mind. But I want you to know that
               | you can safely ignore headlines about black hole
               | information loss. You're not missing anything if you
               | don't those articles. Because no one can tell which
               | solution is correct in the sense that it actually
               | describes nature, and physicists will not agree on one
               | anyway. Because if they did, they'd have to stop writing
               | papers about it. "
               | 
               | It's hard for me to read this is as anything other than
               | "I am not talking about this because I want to change the
               | mind of my colleagues in physics [because they're too far
               | gone]." That is, she believes the research is worthless
               | and the problem shouldn't be investigated. She just
               | doesn't think she can convince people of this.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | But what she believes may simply be wrong. It's just one
               | persons opinion and regardless of motivations ascribed to
               | others people need to justify their choices to themselves
               | and themselves alone but some people apparently need to
               | do so publicly because otherwise it somehow doesn't
               | count.
               | 
               | This is just one interesting sub-problem in physics and
               | if you choose for a career in theoretical physics you
               | know that not everything that you set out to do you will
               | achieve and I suspect that in this particular case it is
               | a let down of fairly large proportions.
               | 
               | So you get a lot of internal struggle to justify the
               | choice, the sunk cost issue is massive and your
               | colleagues are going to go and continue without you. All
               | that needs to be justified to the 'self', both on the off
               | chance that they _will_ come up with a solution when you
               | gave up as well as about all of the time that you now
               | feel that you have wasted.
               | 
               | And in the realm of self justification 'I will stop
               | working on this problem because I no longer feel like
               | working on it' is a lot harder to sell to the ego than 'I
               | will stop working on this problem because I feel that it
               | can't be solved in a meaningful way'.
               | 
               | I'm fine with it, either way, I've seen enough people
               | struggle with career choices made in their 20's when they
               | were in their 40's not to recognize the symptoms: you
               | have reached the halfway mark in your life, what do you
               | have to show for it? And if the answer is 'not much' then
               | that can be a problem. But it doesn't have any value for
               | others, that's all just window dressing and ego-
               | placating.
        
             | raverbashing wrote:
             | Gravitational waves are just a consequence of the Einstein
             | field equations _for which he had experimental evidence
             | for_ (the light bending from the sun during the eclipse)
        
             | canjobear wrote:
             | GR made predictions that were testable at the time and
             | Einstein was keenly interested in testing them. See
             | https://einsteinpapers.press.princeton.edu/vol5-doc/609
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | Yes, but gravitational waves themselves were not
               | testable. To get from the confirmation of the other
               | predictions to belief in gravitational waves, for which
               | you had no direct evidence (until recently), you need to
               | apply exactly the non-empirical criteria (parsimony,
               | consistency, etc.) that Hossenfelder (taken literally)
               | seems to think is not sufficient for doing theoretical
               | physics in the absence of direct evidence.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | Then you are misunderstanding her position. She is not
               | claiming that a convincing solution to the BHILP is
               | impossible. If you came up with a theory of quantum
               | gravity that can be measured in other regimes and that
               | also solves the BHILP, perfect: we now have good reasons
               | to believe that your theory is indeed THE solution to
               | that problem.
               | 
               | However, if you come up with a theory that makes the
               | exact same predictions as QM and GR except for the BHILP,
               | then your theory is not very interesting, since we will
               | never be able to test this theory, and there are other
               | inconsistencies between QM and GR that you haven't
               | solved, so we can't just rest on our laurels and say
               | physics is over.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | I don't think I misunderstand her position. She seems to
               | take the position you give:
               | 
               | "However, if you come up with a theory that makes the
               | exact same predictions as QM and GR except for the BHILP,
               | then your theory is not very interesting, since we will
               | never be able to test this theory, and there are other
               | inconsistencies between QM and GR that you haven't
               | solved, so we can't just rest on our laurels and say
               | physics is over."
               | 
               | I think this is wrong. There are non-empirical reason
               | reasons we might prefer the new theory to the old one.
               | For example, we know QM are GR are inconsistent, so if I
               | give you a parsimonious, consistent theory that captures
               | both QM and GR in the appropriate limits, then that's a
               | great reason to prefer it. In principle, we could prove
               | theorems (and some theorems of this form have been
               | proved) that pin down the possible resolutions of the
               | GR/QM inconsistency. If we tighten the net so that only
               | one theory remains, then obviously we should choose to
               | believe that theory.
               | 
               | Now, will that actually happen? I don't know. But merely
               | waving your hands and going "not testable" is not enough,
               | because we all accept that mathematical consistency ought
               | to have a huge influence on theory choice. You need to
               | make some argument about BHILP specifically saying that
               | theoretical arguments will never produce productive
               | physics.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | > For example, we know QM are GR are inconsistent, so if
               | I give you a parsimonious, consistent theory that
               | captures both QM and GR in the appropriate limits, then
               | that's a great reason to prefer it.
               | 
               | Absolutely agree. But BHILP is not the only
               | inconsistency, so if you only solve that one and leave
               | the others, but complicate the math or add other elements
               | that can't be tested, it's not a particularly compelling
               | theory.
               | 
               | So, why not work directly on the other inconsistencies,
               | which might be directly testable, and see if this one
               | disappears that way?
               | 
               | To be clear, when I say other inconsistencies, I am
               | referring to things like making QFTs work in a non-flat
               | spacetime, and/or reconciling the linearity of QM
               | (without Born's rule) and the non-linearity of GR.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | > So, why not work directly on the other inconsistencies,
               | which might be directly testable, and see if this one
               | disappears that way?
               | 
               | These are not mutually exclusive options. The community
               | works on both.
               | 
               | Again, I agree that so far, practically speaking, work on
               | BHILP has not been super compelling. I take issue with
               | the stronger stance that Hossenfelder seems to take, that
               | we know _a priori_ that work on BHILP will be worthless
               | because experimental data is not forthcoming. ( "And
               | that's why I stopped working on the black hole
               | information loss paradox. Not because it's unsolvable.
               | But because you can't solve this problem with mathematics
               | alone, and experiments are not possible, not now and
               | probably not in the next 10000 years.")
        
           | CyanBird wrote:
           | The error is that, simply because, even if true, that an
           | experiment can't be done for the next 10000 years, this
           | doesn't mean that someone else could think of a different
           | experiment that could fulfill the initial prerequisites and
           | provide a workable outcome/answer
           | 
           | I think the writer is being too fatalistic on that simply
           | because he/she can't come up with a workable experiment, then
           | no one else can. I think that simply because of all the
           | nonlinearities of "life", we are bound to have someone else
           | come up with maybe a different experiment which answers the
           | question, just picture that there are several, several ways
           | to prove General Relativity with experiments not just "the
           | one"
        
             | hanselot wrote:
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | At least for cosmic black holes, there is no way to measure
             | the correlation of hawking radiation with the objects
             | composing the black hole unless you can detect and store
             | information about all objects going into the black hole and
             | all radiation coming out, and then look for correlations
             | between these. Even assuming you could store and process
             | this literally stellar amount of information, you would
             | have to be extraordinarily lucky for the correlation to
             | arise immediately. More likely, you would need to do this
             | for the entire lifetime of the black hole, and only after
             | it's (mostly) evaporated could you run the analysis. Even
             | granted the galaxy-sized computer that could do so, you
             | would need to wait a few thousands of billions of years or
             | more to reach that state.
        
         | matt_kantor wrote:
         | > Einstein discovered general relativity [...] but we had no
         | direct test for about 100 years.
         | 
         | General relativity was tested by the Eddington experiment in
         | 1919: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddington_experiment
         | 
         | (I mostly agree with your overall point, this is just a minor
         | quibble.)
        
           | spekcular wrote:
           | Sorry, I meant direct tests of gravitational waves. I think
           | that claim is accurate.
        
             | jeremyjh wrote:
             | Why is that one thing particularly important? The point is
             | that general relativity had immediately testable
             | predictions. It wasn't just math.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | General relativity predicts gravitational waves. For the
               | theory to be correct, gravitational waves need to exist.
               | You haven't fully confirmed the theory experimentally
               | unless you confirm that consequence.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | This is a useless way of looking at things - even the
               | task of just listing all the implications of a theory is
               | probably unbounded, and if, at any point, you assume the
               | correctness of another theory... If you are only
               | maximally skeptical in some matters, then you are being
               | inconsistent.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | Sure. But this is a huge, incredibly novel prediction.
               | It's not some trivial matter.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | You can make the claims of your original post (and
               | arguably more effectively) without the subjective (and
               | rather idiosyncratic) view that GR was in some sort of
               | indeterminate level of credence until the detection of
               | gravity waves.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | Sorry, I wrote poorly. I don't mean to say that GR or
               | gravitational waves were in some sort of indeterminate
               | level of credence. I mean to say that our credence in
               | gravitational waves in the absence of experimental
               | confirmation is justified by exactly the kinds of non-
               | empirical evidence that Hossenfelder rejects. So it's
               | clear that she's being too restrictive in what she
               | believes is worthwhile theoretical physics.
        
               | jeremyjh wrote:
               | That doesn't mean that he didn't have ideas for testable
               | predictions of the model. It implied all kinds of things,
               | some of which he had not even thought of (like Black
               | Holes). Its quite a lot different to propose a model with
               | some novel predictions that you can validate, and to
               | propose a model that can never be tested in any form at
               | all.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | Some predictions of the model were tested soon after
               | Einstein published the theory. Others, like gravitational
               | waves, were not. Yet people still believed in
               | gravitational waves long before they were empirically
               | confirmed.
               | 
               | I don't see any possible basis for that belief (at the
               | time) other than arguments based on non-empirical reasons
               | like consistency and parsimony. (That is, it would be
               | strange if other predictions of the model worked out but
               | this one didn't.) Yet it is exactly this kind of
               | theoretical reasoning that Hossenfelder, taken literally,
               | seems to reject (in the absence of experimental data).
               | 
               | I'll also note that any other solution of the black hole
               | information paradox has to be consistent with the the
               | rest of what we know about physics, and any future
               | empirical observations. So it can't be completely
               | untethered from reality; it makes testable claims in this
               | way. Further, it's not clear such solutions can never be
               | directly tested, or will never be found to imply novel
               | testable consequences.
        
           | Beldin wrote:
           | As that article mentions, data quality was abysmal. I once
           | saw a remark about the error bars being larger than the
           | supposed effect - though o cannot find it and think that
           | might be overly harsh.
           | 
           | The 1922 test of starlight deflection by the Sun was much,
           | much more accurate. And it did take about 100 years to detect
           | gravitational waves. Though the earliest test was probably
           | the perihelion of Mercury, which I think was covered in the
           | original GR paper.
        
             | hotpotamus wrote:
             | That seems to be the way of cutting edge science. The data
             | that Hubble gathered that showed the expansion of the
             | universe is considered terrible by today's standards, but
             | it was enough to prove it.
        
         | meroes wrote:
         | Einstein is a great example where his intuition served him well
         | for most things, but not quantum mechanics. And it's not his
         | fault. He was worried spooky action at a distance was opening
         | up physics to be nonlocal, which he feared would ruin
         | scientific progress for practical reasons.
         | 
         | Quantum mechanics is also something without experiment no one
         | would come up with in a million years.
         | 
         | Einstein was right to fear science anti-thetical to the
         | enterprise. If QM were a tiny bit more nonlocal our ability to
         | do experiments would be much more limited.
         | 
         | His wisdom about the limits of science was correct but QM was
         | something no wisdom at the time could foretell without
         | experiments.
         | 
         | Maybe you aren't aware but there are probably 50 or more
         | interpretations of QM by now. And it's even worse on the string
         | theory side.
         | 
         | I fear we have always relied on experiments, and going even 100
         | years without one is cause for alarm.
        
           | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
           | > Quantum mechanics is also something without experiment no
           | one would come up with in a million years.
           | 
           | You may find the book Quantum Computing since Democritus an
           | interesting read. It's motivating them is how the ancient
           | greeks might have deduced the basics of QM.
        
         | kalimanzaro wrote:
         | That's fine. One can also do essentially the same work in a
         | mathematics department without the miasma of subjective or
         | historical notions of what progress means. I mean,
         | mathematicians are perfectly fine with producing theorems,
         | proofs and even conjectures. Physicists secretly wish for the
         | community's (not just the committee's) validation also.
         | 
         | Well yes, Einstein found physicists insufferable as well and
         | preferred to hang out with Godel. That doesnt mean you should
         | go straight and transfer to Logic
        
       | cryptonector wrote:
       | Sonic black holes have been studied experimentally. They are only
       | weak analogs of actual black holes, so how much light they can
       | shed on real black holes, I don't know, but it does seem to me
       | that as long as they do have insights to reveal, we can't say
       | that work on black hole information loss is purely mathematical.
       | It's also possible that pure mathematical solutions will yield
       | predictions that can be tested w/o a black hole.
       | 
       | So I'm a bit skeptical of her take on this subject, though if
       | work in this space is unrewarding and there's more rewarding work
       | to do elsewhere, then that makes sense. But then, I am not a
       | physicist!
       | https://interestingengineering.com/sonic-black-holes-and-the-
       | information-paradox
        
       | Linda703 wrote:
        
       | fpoling wrote:
       | One has to be skeptical even about the whole notion of the
       | temperature of a black hole and existence of Hawking radiation.
       | 
       | In a book from 1927 Richard Tolman tried to generalize
       | thermodynamics to General Relativity. One of the most interesting
       | of his results was that in GR thermal equilibrium required a
       | temperature gradient that depended on the gravitational field.
       | Tolmen's result is still sometimes discussed but it is not
       | settled if he was wrong or right.
       | 
       | The catch is that if his reasoning was correct, then the black
       | hole horizon from a point of view of external observer should
       | have the temperature of 0K which in turn implied no Hawking
       | radiation.
        
         | wumpus wrote:
         | I did a search on arxiv and I see people are writing a small
         | number of modern papers on that exact topic. Are you familiar
         | enough with them to summarize?
        
       | computator wrote:
       | > _You're not missing anything if you don't those articles._
       | 
       | I love the irony that something is missing in her closing remark.
       | Almost makes me wonder if it was intentional.
        
       | daxfohl wrote:
       | Here's what I've never understood. From an outside perspective
       | the black hole will evaporate before the thing falls in. Thus a
       | thing can never fall in. From its perspective the hole will emit
       | more and more intense radiation and finally evaporate just before
       | it hits the horizon.
       | 
       | If true, I think you can go even further and say no black hole
       | can completely form; the collapsing matter just gets
       | exponentially closer to being fully black until the effect of the
       | Hawking radiation outweighs the gravitation, but it all
       | evaporates before going fully black. No?
       | 
       | (This latter part assumes there's some Hawking radiation or
       | equivalent from pre-black holes as well).
       | 
       | Now, I assume the pre-Hawking radiation would be unitary, since
       | the only reason Hawking radiation is not unitary is because BHs
       | don't have information, but pre-black holes are not black holes.
       | So doesn't that solve the info paradox? Without resorting to
       | holographs and whatnot? Where's the error?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | See
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firewall_(physics)
         | 
         | vs
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole_complementarity
        
           | daxfohl wrote:
           | Sure, but the paradoxes listed on those pages go away because
           | _the black hole never fully exists_. The mass inside any
           | volume is always _just short_ of what would be required to
           | make a black hole. And so _of course_ we can expect to see
           | crazy quantum effects at the boundaries, just like any other
           | massively dense celestial object. However it 's hidden behind
           | insane time dilation to anyone outside.
           | 
           | Going a bit further, it could even explain dark energy
           | (Granted, I'm way out of my depth here): One outcome of
           | General Relativity is that a large enough object of any
           | density is a black hole (a black hole the size of Saturn's
           | orbit need only be the density of water). Thus if we assume
           | the universe is infinite and self similar, mass would have to
           | constantly expand in order to avoid black holing.
        
             | peterburkimsher wrote:
             | Could a black hole exist in the same universe as a magnetic
             | monopole?
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_monopole
             | 
             | If energy is related to matter by E=mc2, then the
             | electromagnetic field of the monopole would also be
             | diminished by a black hole, if one truly exists. But there
             | might only be a single monopole.
             | 
             | "Standard models of inflation solve the "monopole problem"
             | by arguing that the seed from which our entire visible
             | Universe grew was a quantum fluctuation so small that it
             | contained only one monopole."
             | 
             | https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg14419512-600-do-we-
             | li...
             | 
             | Scientifically I'm way out of my depth, but perhaps there's
             | a perfect universe on the other side of the black
             | hole/white hole/wormhole. Or perhaps the perfect design is
             | already here, and when we find bugs, we should be working
             | to improve the world around us to make it better over time.
             | I know I can't do that alone, but by some miracle,
             | technology seems to be helping.
        
       | Fellshard wrote:
       | This may be somewhat tangential, and if it is too much so, then
       | ignore this and move along.
       | 
       | Isn't the key axiom - preservation of information - a
       | presupposition, and not a formally evidenced law? As best I can
       | tell, it's mostly been assumed as a required premise for a larger
       | axiom - the eternality of matter.
        
         | twhb wrote:
         | The article does say it's "experimentally extremely well
         | confirmed".
        
         | Strilanc wrote:
         | Here's a relevant blog post: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=3327
         | 'Is "information is physical" contentful?'
         | 
         | In quantum mechanics, breaking unitarity (which implies
         | conservation of information) is akin to breaking the rule in
         | statistics that probabilities have to add up to 100%. You get
         | things like a 300% chance of rain or a 90% chance of [null
         | reference exception]. It's hard to overstate how deep down it
         | is and how many things depend on it.
        
       | chubot wrote:
       | Interesting, this is a slightly weaker form of a theory not being
       | falsifiable. Any theory won't be falsifiable in the next 10,000
       | years!
       | 
       | I think it's a good idea to make these distinctions.
        
       | debdut wrote:
       | Maybe in some years we create a small black hole, and since
       | radiation is inversely proportional to mass, not only it will
       | emit measurable emissions, it will pop out of existence or go
       | through it's lifetime pretty quickly. Hence experiments will be
       | possible and the paradox solution can be verified
        
       | fasteddie31003 wrote:
       | I am skeptical of any black hole research because it cannot be
       | currently tested. I recently went down the rabbit hole on how the
       | Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) got a picture of a black hole
       | because this could be used as experimental evidence of how a
       | black hole works. After looking into how the EHT was calibrated,
       | I am extremely skeptical of their results. I'm not an
       | Astrophysicist, but I have a lot of understanding of statistical
       | causality and Scientific Philosophy. The EHT processes that made
       | the image of a black hole break a lot of the scientific methods
       | IMO. The algorithms they use to make the image of the black hole
       | were never tested against a known celestial body to calibrate the
       | algorithms. They took a "a posteriori" approach to their imaging
       | algorithms, which do not produce accurate results. I noticed
       | their unscientific approach to the imaging algorithms after when
       | I watched "Black Holes: The Edge of All We Know", which is a
       | first-hand account on how the EHT developed their black hole
       | image. They were literally testing different imaging algorithms
       | to find the one that looked most like a circle. The correct
       | method would be to calibrate their imaging algorithms against a
       | known celestial body to make sure their techniques produced
       | comparable results from other instruments. Then they should have
       | taken their calibrated imaging algorithms and gave it data from
       | the M87 black hole, but they skipped the hole calibration step
       | and went right into imaging the black hole, which makes me very
       | skeptical of their results.
        
         | meroes wrote:
         | My understanding of cosmology and astronomy is there is an
         | inherent "ladder", nesting of assumptions, or indirect argument
         | structure. Like, IF the Moon is a sphere, then by the shadows
         | Earth leaves upon it during eclipses, Earth is a sphere. This
         | reasoning came before Aristotle knew the Earth was sphere.
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/7ne0GArfeMs?t=632
         | 
         | This is still a way to do science. I'm willing to believe the
         | experimenters dealt with the inherent novelty in a scientific
         | way. What do you mean known celestial body?? We've only ever
         | "been" to 2. We don't get to run all the experiments you'd
         | like. As long as the process is self-correcting, it works. You
         | have not shown this method to be uncorrecting. Better and
         | better standards are used to strengthen these claims. And it is
         | expected some degree of future corrections will occur. That's
         | the nature of the beast.
        
         | docandrew wrote:
         | I feel like the use of astronomy and cosmology to model and
         | understand sub-microscopic processes seems a little...
         | backwards? Frankly, I'm ignorant of both but my gut feeling
         | tells me it's a bit of a scientific dead end. Would love to
         | hear why I'm wrong or if anyone else more educated than I am in
         | this area shares the same suspicions.
        
         | wumpus wrote:
         | > The algorithms they use to make the image of the black hole
         | were never tested against a known celestial body to calibrate
         | the algorithms.
         | 
         | This is not true, as is much of the rest of your comment.
         | Please read the papers, they say everything that the
         | collaboration did.
        
           | fasteddie31003 wrote:
           | I've taken hours and read
           | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/ab0c57 .
           | My take away was they did a good job calibrating their
           | signals, but I've never seen anything about calibrating their
           | imaging algorithms. They have not calibrated the whole
           | imaging stack. My skepticism is in the algorithms, not the
           | signals.
        
             | wumpus wrote:
             | You read the paper about calibrating the signals, that's a
             | reasonable takeaway.
             | 
             | There's a different paper about how the 4 independent
             | algorithms were tested to make sure they did the right
             | thing with simulated data: ring, crescent, disk, double
             | point source.
             | 
             | That's the process that you had an incorrect takeaway from
             | the documentary about. The filmmaker is a member of the
             | collaboration and was highly involved in the imaging.
             | 
             | First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. IV. Imaging the
             | Central Supermassive Black Hole https://iopscience.iop.org/
             | article/10.3847/2041-8213/ab0e85/...
             | 
             | You'll have to follow the footnotes to find out the ages of
             | these algorithms; CLEAN was invented well before I first
             | used it in 1985, and I first ran into maximum likelihood in
             | 1987 or so.
        
               | fasteddie31003 wrote:
               | Thanks. I will read this paper.
        
             | rrss wrote:
             | When you say the "whole imaging stack," which one do you
             | mean?
             | 
             | EHT imaged M87 with four teams working independently using
             | different methods. Each of those teams used algorithms that
             | were published and validated before the EHT results were
             | published.
        
               | fasteddie31003 wrote:
               | Did the 4 teams create their algorithms before getting
               | the observation data and not modify them at all after
               | seeing the results from the first run of their
               | algorithms? Or was there data and algorithm tweaking to
               | get the results that they wanted?
        
         | dane-pgp wrote:
        
         | drcode wrote:
         | I share your skepticism about the image, the problem is that
         | without spending months learning the science & tech there is no
         | way to substantiate our skepticism.
        
           | fasteddie31003 wrote:
           | Just show me a calibration image of a know celestial body
           | using the exact same algorithms and I'll be satisfied.
        
             | lupire wrote:
             | It doesn't really matter. You are talking about a thing
             | that severely distorts light and gravity. There is no real
             | human-visible picture of it.
        
               | BurningFrog wrote:
               | Well, if it was nearby, we would see _something_. A
               | camera _would_ capture an image.
               | 
               | Perhaps our brains would not do well understanding the
               | actual object producing the picture though.
        
       | mc4ndr3 wrote:
       | I thought Susskind solved this.
        
       | fancyfredbot wrote:
       | Reminds me of the phrase "not even wrong"
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong
        
       | DangitBobby wrote:
       | Doesn't the idea of "randomly emitted radiation" contradict the
       | concept of "reversal" itself? If you know enough about a system,
       | anything that appears random within it actually turns out to be
       | determinstic. So I don't understand how a black hole can be said
       | to emit "random" radiation to lose information on the first
       | place.
        
         | lupire wrote:
         | Non-newtownian/non-classical/non-relatistic Quantum effects are
         | truly random. That's the core axiom of what makes "quantum"
         | mechanics not Newtonian/classical/relativistic. It's
         | fundamentally different from Newtownian statistical mechanics.
         | 
         | Hawking radiation is purely random.
        
           | bmacho wrote:
           | > Non-newtownian/non-classical/non-relatistic Quantum effects
           | are truly random. That's the core axiom of what makes
           | "quantum" mechanics not Newtonian/classical/relativistic.
           | 
           | Bohmian mechanics[1] (which is a model of QM) is fully
           | deterministic, and Born rule emerges from the fact that we
           | don't know some information. QM (equations, experiments) is
           | fully consistent with a world, where the perceived randomness
           | of a measurement is the exact same random, as in coin flips.
           | 
           | For additional properties that QM does not satisfy (because
           | there are known counter examples) see https://en.wikipedia.or
           | g/wiki/Interpretations_of_quantum_mec...
           | 
           | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Broglie-Bohm_theory
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | Note that Bohmian mechanics (the actual mathematical
             | formalism) is not consistent with Special Relativity,
             | unlike regular Quantum Mechanics. It's not proven that it
             | can't be made consistent, and some are still working on
             | that, but so far it has remained elusive. This means that
             | it's not really "an interpretation" of QM, it's a slightly
             | different theory, one that is worse at predicting observed
             | reality...
        
               | rssoconnor wrote:
               | Indeed. Wake me up when Bohmian mechanics can predict the
               | anomalous magnetic dipole moment.
        
               | bmacho wrote:
               | Fair point. Well it proves that non-relativistic QM
               | (which is not supported by the experiments, and is
               | inconsistent with our best and most useful theories) is
               | not proven to be "truly random", at least the math does
               | not imply it, so disproves parent's statement.
        
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