[HN Gopher] Japan's Hometown Tax (2018)
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Japan's Hometown Tax (2018)
        
       Author : harporoeder
       Score  : 288 points
       Date   : 2022-04-25 09:48 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.kalzumeus.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.kalzumeus.com)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | incomingpain wrote:
       | Japan is writing the economic textbooks. Tremendous government
       | debt, nearly 100% total tax burden. Quantitative easing will tend
       | to target entities in say Tokyo. It creates an imbalance that
       | will only get worse as people move to Tokyo to get some of that
       | QE. Negative interest rates, they basically are giving away free
       | money so that the economy doesn't blow up in a deflationary death
       | spiral. This imbalance to then be fixed comes in form of another
       | tax? The hometown tax?
       | 
       | Worse yet, the government debt to gdp is still increasing. Debt
       | still going up and up because they havent balanced the budget
       | since the early 90s.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades
       | 
       | Japan has lost 3 decades so far because of high taxes and high
       | debt. You can't default on the debt, it's your own people who own
       | the debt. Defaulting would mean your elderly have to go back to
       | work. Yet it's worse... Japan has a major silver crime issue and
       | well unspoken probable slave labour problem.
       | 
       | The fix for Japan is so simple yet for 30 years nobody has been
       | willing to do it.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | ascar wrote:
         | > nearly 100% total tax burden.
         | 
         | What kind of number is this? The debt to GDP is actually more
         | than 200% and you will find the US also above 100%. So yes
         | Japan has a big debt problem, but what metric are you using?
         | 
         | > Yet it's worse... Japan has a major silver crime issue and
         | well unspoken probable slave labour problem.
         | 
         | Do you have any source for that? I don't know about silver
         | crime, but the globalslaveryindex ranks Japan as literally the
         | lowest country (167/167 [1]), 4 times better than the US and
         | more than 6 times better than a few European countries I looked
         | up like Germany, Austria, France or UK.
         | 
         | > The fix for Japan is so simple yet for 30 years nobody has
         | been willing to do it.
         | 
         | If it's so easy, why don't you at least enlighten us instead of
         | just stating it's easy?
         | 
         | [1] https://www.globalslaveryindex.org/2018/data/country-
         | data/ja...
        
           | incomingpain wrote:
           | >What kind of number is this? The debt to GDP is actually
           | more than 200% and you will find the US also above 100%. So
           | yes Japan has a big debt problem, but what metric are you
           | using?
           | 
           | Governments like to split up taxes and tax different things.
           | Middle east generally has no personal income tax or even a
           | corporate tax. Yet you can't say the middle east has no
           | taxes.
           | 
           | You have to analyze 'total tax burden' but you also can't
           | allow even more tricks like progressive taxes making it
           | apples/oranges.
           | 
           | Japan has one of the highest personal taxes in the world at
           | 55%. You work for the government 6 months of the year.
           | 
           | When you analyze total tax burden properly. There's only a
           | few countries in the world whose taxes are near 100%.
           | Basically Japanese people work for the government the entire
           | year and don't realize it. The government sure doesn't
           | provide everything for them to live.
           | 
           | >Do you have any source for that? I don't know about silver
           | crime,
           | 
           | Something like this:
           | https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/20/poverty-
           | ageing-j...
           | 
           | Basically in population declines or situations like world war
           | 2 countries are currently in or soon to be in. Effectively
           | elderly retirees are forced to go back to work. They let
           | their skills expire. They take an ego hit being forced to
           | work a mcjob. So they steal instead. This wasn't even
           | marginally the problem it will be. It's something that's set
           | it stone.
           | 
           | >but the globalslaveryindex ranks Japan as literally the
           | lowest country (167/167 [1]), 4 times better than the US and
           | more than 6 times better than a few European countries I
           | looked up like Germany, Austria, France or UK.
           | 
           | That's literally impossible. Answer me 2 things that will
           | tell me if it's the lowest slavery in the world.
           | 
           | 1. What is the criminal conviction rate in Japan?
           | 
           | 2. Is there penal labour in Japan?
           | 
           | >If it's so easy, why don't you at least enlighten us instead
           | of just stating it's easy?
           | 
           | Well I touched on it. total tax burden being at 100% means
           | you cant raise taxes.
           | 
           | Balancing the budget is step #1. Figure out all the positive
           | rights that need reducing or cancelling. End abenomics asap.
           | Balanced budget amendment to the constitution.
           | 
           | Massively increase immigration in order to dilute tax cost or
           | debt/capita. Not sure how that'll work but probably also a
           | later disaster for japan. 1 problem at a time.
           | 
           | Probably need to build a free trade zone. Massive increase in
           | tourism needed. Probably will need a massive amount of
           | deregulation that will blow your mind.
           | 
           | Now you have to deal with the consequences of the above
           | options. They aren't good. Probably going to be ~25%
           | unemployment. Probably about 4% poverty. GDP contraction of
           | -5%/year for several years. Depression level disaster to be
           | sure.
           | 
           | Yet this depression is far less painful than Japan's current
           | path.
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | Here's a nifty sortable table of tax revenue as percentage
             | of GDP:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_reve
             | n...
             | 
             | Japan's is 38.4%. Eyeballing their position in the table
             | suggests they're 66th percentile. (The US is at 38.1%;
             | Germany is Europe's economic powerhouse, and is at 43.9%)
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > When you analyze total tax burden properly. There's only
             | a few countries in the world whose taxes are near 100%.
             | 
             | Define "properly", paying particular attention to
             | explaining why the standard "revenue/GDP" method is wrong,
             | and show your supporting data for Japan being near 100%.
        
             | iso1210 wrote:
             | > total tax burden being at 100% means you cant raise
             | taxes.
             | 
             | You still haven't explained what this means. The Japanese
             | tax to GDP ratio is 31%, below the OECD average
             | 
             | https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-
             | japan...
             | 
             | Japan spends 38% of its GDP, about the same as the US does.
             | 
             | To balance the budget the government would thus have to
             | take 38% of GDP. That would put it in the same range as
             | Germany, Norway, Netherlands, and way below Italy, Sweden,
             | Denmark, France,
        
       | LatteLazy wrote:
       | Full disclosure: I am a londoner and this is basically how our
       | tax system works except without any of the optionality.
       | 
       | I am not at all convinced that towns have a claim to the tax
       | revenue of people who don't use it's services. The fact regions
       | can force this onto Tokyo etc is a failure of democracy, not a
       | success. We're living in a time when Cities work, and bigger
       | cities work better than smaller ones. They're cheaper, greener,
       | have better social outcomes, provide more opportunities etc. And
       | the response is to try to starve them of revenue to maintain some
       | strange tradition life of worse health, poorer people, less
       | equality and more pollution.
       | 
       | /rant
        
         | numpad0 wrote:
         | It's insanely corrupt. Up to 40% of your taxable income can be
         | paid as Furusato nozei, and you get kickback in the form of a
         | "thank you gift"(30% value).
         | 
         | The parts about hometowns are almost irrelevant, as each
         | donations are one time transactions.
         | 
         | If this isn't scheme of a fraud I don't know what is one.
        
           | LukeShu wrote:
           | > Up to 40% of your taxable income can be paid as Furusato
           | nozei
           | 
           | No, 4% of your taxable income. There's a 10% residence tax on
           | your taxable income, and 40% _of that 10%_ can be paid as
           | Furusato Nouzei.
        
         | rocqua wrote:
         | How is this how the UK tax system works?
         | 
         | Do you simply mean that the counties get most of their income,
         | not from local tax but from national tax? This then counts as
         | 'stealing from the city' because most of the national income is
         | created by the city?
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | I think this is amusing because a lot of those cities are
           | stealing jobs so it is only fair for them to pay.
        
             | settrans wrote:
             | I never understood this attitude (assuming it's serious).
             | If a job is created in a city that wouldn't exist in the
             | country, where is the stealing? To me this sounds like the
             | city is creating value _ex nihilo_, and the "payment" here
             | is an orthogonal, collectivist redistribution.
        
         | rayiner wrote:
         | There is a time skew between use of government services and
         | when you pay back with taxes. Why shouldn't a city that paid to
         | educate a kid from age 5 to 18 not receive some of the tax
         | revenue when that kid uses that education to get a job in
         | Tokyo?
        
         | traceroute66 wrote:
         | > except without any of the optionality
         | 
         | Or the reciprocal gifts, or ....
         | 
         | I'm not entirely sure it is "basically how" the London/UK tax
         | system works ? Perhaps you could elaborate.
         | 
         | Local government is ultimately funded by central government,
         | which is (as we've seen from the present UK government) subject
         | to political whims as to who gets what and how much (Tories
         | favouring Tory seats/councils).
         | 
         | I suspect you might have Council Tax in mind, but I'm not
         | entirely convinced that is "basically the same thing" either.
        
           | stdbrouw wrote:
           | The purpose of the hometown tax is wealth transfer to less
           | populated, poorer regions. In that sense, the reciprocal
           | gifts etc. are just a funny implementation detail.
        
         | jonwachob91 wrote:
         | People in cities still need rural towns for farming and related
         | agriculture production. Maybe in 20 or 50 years most farming
         | will be automated, but until then lets not lose sight that big
         | cities are dependent on those rural towns with "strange
         | tradition life of worse health, poorer people, less equality
         | and more pollution"
        
           | formerkrogemp wrote:
           | Vertical farming and recirculating aquaculture could
           | revolutionize food production in wealthy nations. Remote work
           | and high housing costs could slow the urbanization trends
           | somewhat.
        
             | jonwachob91 wrote:
             | My understanding of vertical farming is that the only thing
             | they've succeeded in growing in leafy greens.
        
             | imtringued wrote:
             | Vertical farming requires nuclear fusion. What's your
             | schedule for that?
             | 
             | Seriously, why exactly are we throwing away free solar
             | resources only to have to generate them through some other
             | method that is much harder?
        
           | LatteLazy wrote:
           | Everyone needs everyone else for the goods and services they
           | provide. We pay farmers for the food they grown when they buy
           | it. We pay them again with farm subsidies. Do we really need
           | to pay a third time with town subsidies?
        
             | modo_mario wrote:
             | As far as I know here in Belgium most of the factory work
             | also happens far from the big cities.
             | 
             | >We pay farmers for the food they grown when they buy it.
             | We pay them again with farm subsidies. Do we really need to
             | pay a third time with town subsidies?
             | 
             | Not allowing them to be squeezed so much by oversized
             | supermarketchains and the like would probably do more
        
         | causi wrote:
         | Did you miss this part?
         | 
         |  _To the extent that taxpayers donate to their hometowns, Tokyo
         | no longer freerides on the substantial public expenditures
         | required to raise and educate internal migrants._
         | 
         | The cost to raise a child to adulthood in Japan is around
         | $300,000. That's quite significant.
        
           | jefftk wrote:
           | Your $300k includes costs paid by the parents, though, but in
           | this case we only care about government costs.
        
             | causi wrote:
             | _but in this case we only care about government costs_
             | 
             | Why? Raising a child is a six-figure investment of money
             | that doesn't go somewhere else. Every expenditure that
             | doesn't immediately go back into the local economy like
             | food is wasted when a person leaves. That fraction of a tax
             | is probably never going to equal what the hometown spent on
             | things like education it will receive no return on.
        
           | LatteLazy wrote:
           | I think it's very weak logic.
           | 
           | First, even if someone actually paid the 300k it takes to
           | raise a child, that doesn't mean that person owns the adult.
           | 
           | And second, who is paying that? Education (in Japan and the
           | UK) is primarily funded at a national level. So Tokyo/London,
           | have already contributed significantly to the cost of that
           | person's education (and to the education of plenty of people
           | who will never move there to work). And most of the costs of
           | raising kids are paid either by parents or at a national
           | level.
           | 
           | It seems to me this is just post hoc justification for taking
           | resources out of productive areas that need them and sending
           | them to unproductive areas that don't. That might be
           | "democratic" if there are a lot of unproductive areas. But it
           | isn't fair or efficient or effective. And it will soak up
           | resources better spent helping people who actually need
           | them...
        
         | lozenge wrote:
         | Yes, Lexit! London should declare independence from the UK.
         | Then it won't need to maintain all that inefficient non-
         | megacity infrastructure.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | It won't have to pay to maintain the roads between the city
           | and the farms. What a bargain!
        
         | FooBarBizBazz wrote:
         | This argument, against redistribution from cities to rural
         | areas of a country, seems to also apply against aid from rich
         | countries to poor ones. In both cases, there are less-
         | expensive, less-"developed" places where it is possible to have
         | a family and raise children; richer, more-developed places
         | where all the jobs are; and a flow of people from the former to
         | the latter. These might be called "core" and "periphery".
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | The obvious solution would be to introduce a negative
           | interest rate on cash so that rich city dwellers cannot
           | accumulate massive trade surpluses against small towns which
           | then means people don't have to move out of town to get a
           | job.
           | 
           | It's quite tiring to see all these "faux" free market
           | advocates or liberals, while they do absolutely nothing to
           | actually get closer to the impossible ideal. They see the
           | free as in free beer, i.e. reducing "government intervention"
           | to let special interest groups get away with shady behavior
           | instead of addressing known conflict sources and making
           | control over them irrelevant.
        
         | modo_mario wrote:
         | >I am not at all convinced that towns have a claim to the tax
         | revenue of people who don't use it's services.
         | 
         | The article mentions such a service tho. Education. On the
         | other hand I don't think the support for those early years
         | amount to 40% of ones paycheck but not everyone participates
         | so...
         | 
         | >worse health
         | 
         | How so? I would think it is the opposite based on studies about
         | allergy prevalence, etc
         | 
         | >less equality
         | 
         | I don't think this is a constant either. I'm curious to see a
         | broad study but if there's ever places i've seen stark wealth
         | divides to slap one in the face it's been big cities.
         | 
         | That said as towns person I still agree that the move to cities
         | is not a bad thing especially if we wish to preserve more
         | nature and so is the push for it. I also think this continuous
         | urbanisation will help their or our birthrates but the world
         | population can't and shouldn't grow endlessly.
        
           | LukeShu wrote:
           | > amount to 40% of ones paycheck
           | 
           | 3.2% of one's paycheck. 40% of the residence tax, which the
           | article asserts is about 8% of one's pre-tax salary;
           | 40%x8%=3.2%.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | namovat wrote:
       | What stupid thing is this
        
       | Arn_Thor wrote:
       | An incredibly cool, inventive and awesome system! And somehow
       | quintessentially Japanese too. Lovely writeup.
        
         | tomatowurst wrote:
         | This is essentially equalization payments, it's not at all
         | unique to Japan. Even Canada does it.
        
       | boomboomsubban wrote:
       | Wasn't 2008 roughly the start of the "every town has a mascot"
       | trend in Japan? I wonder if this law helped is part of the reason
       | pushing that trend.
        
         | resoluteteeth wrote:
         | I don't think there is any particular connection
        
         | skhr0680 wrote:
         | I think the modern mascots are inspired by Hikonyan (2007)
        
           | boomboomsubban wrote:
           | A mascot existing wouldn't inspire towns to invest resources
           | in developing their own. Sure, they mah have had some hopes
           | that it would lead to similar merchandizing sales or tourism
           | growth, but that dream likely died quickly.
           | 
           | A cute character regularly reminding people of their home to
           | take advantage of this tax makes more sense to me.
        
             | resoluteteeth wrote:
             | Even though the furusato nozei system was originally
             | created around the same time as local mascots started to
             | become popular in 2008, there wasn't competition from
             | municipalities to try to attract donations until around
             | 2016.
             | 
             | Mascot characters like Kumamon, which were created after
             | 2008 but before the furusato nozei system really started
             | attracting attention, were specifically created to attract
             | tourism, not to attract donations.
             | 
             | So even though it might seem that the timing would match
             | up, it's not really true that there is a connection.
             | 
             | Furthermore, when municipalities started trying to compete
             | for donations, they didn't use mascots, they just started
             | bribing people with return gifts. Maybe in theory
             | municipalities could have used mascots to try to attract
             | donations, but in reality they don't seem to have done
             | that.
        
       | Hamuko wrote:
       | There's an ongoing study into furusato nozei in Finland. However,
       | they've apparently decided to axe the tax rebate aspect of the
       | system, so it's basically only going to amount to a municipal
       | marketplace ("donate" money, get goods in return).
       | 
       | https://www.epressi.com/tiedotteet/maaseutu/japanin-kotiseut...
        
       | xunn0026 wrote:
       | Needs a (2018). I knew I read it and wondered if there's anything
       | new here?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | benou wrote:
       | Looks similar to Equalization payments [1] already used in
       | several places in the world.
       | 
       | It looks to me that this being organized by the state should be
       | more fair and efficient, but the additional "local connection"
       | you get is a nice touch though.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments
        
         | azernik wrote:
         | With a big difference:
         | 
         | Instead of the state deciding how much to equalize and who the
         | recipients should be, rich cities preempted that and set their
         | own equalization contributions unilaterally. In the process,
         | instead of deciding on the equalization recipients through any
         | political process or deliberation, they opened that decision up
         | to individual taxpayers.
        
           | cool_dude85 wrote:
           | And apparently some search engine intermediary gets to take a
           | cut for making the proverbial website. Sounds way efficient,
           | good job to the free market of choice on this one.
        
       | erwincoumans wrote:
       | Omoshiroi! This is a really nice write up. Education is indeed
       | very expensive and the towns outside of Tokyo have difficulties
       | surviving, with only older people remaining there. Those towns
       | have to be very creative to attract money and people. You can get
       | a house for free, if you will live there, similar to some Italian
       | towns.
       | 
       | In the Netherlands we have similar issue of towns fighting for
       | survival in more rural parts (Limburg). They try to combine
       | schools of several towns to reduce the cost of teachers, and
       | similar combining police stations.
       | 
       | Lowering the friction for such 'gift tax' is interesting,
       | Japanese are big into all kind of little gifts: if you go on
       | holiday you bring something small, an Omiage. If you attend a
       | birthday party, not only you bring a present (which is usual
       | everywhere) but the guest also get a little gift in return, an
       | Okaeshi.
        
       | Semaphor wrote:
       | The article generated a big discussion at the time (254
       | comments): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18256660
        
       | coobird wrote:
       | Actually, many city governments in Japan already get a
       | redistribution from the national government in "local tax
       | allocation" to the tune of over 100 billion USD every year, and
       | cities like Tokyo with a large tax base or industry are excluded
       | from this. Then there's "hometown tax" so local municipalities in
       | Tokyo and the surrounding areas are losing local tax revenue.
       | 
       | I suspect a that many are not aware that taxes destined for the
       | local government they live ("residence tax") in gets diverted to
       | other cities, especially because many salaried workers don't do
       | their own taxes, as was mentioned in the article. It's gotten to
       | the point that some cities were running public service
       | announcements saying that "donating through hometown tax leads to
       | loss of local tax revenues" and saying funding for services like
       | city-run daycare can be at risk.
       | 
       | In 2021, Tokyo "lost" about 400 million USD in tax revenue to
       | this program, so it's not a trivial amount.
        
       | 1270018080 wrote:
       | Well... I can say I am glad America doesn't have this.
        
       | caseyross wrote:
       | (2018)
       | 
       | Discussed at the time:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18256660
        
       | helen___keller wrote:
       | > This counsels that a young person born and educated in e.g.
       | Gifu move to Tokyo after graduation to earn a living. > Many,
       | many do. While Japan's overall population is declining, Tokyo's
       | increases by about 100,000 people per year.
       | 
       | Notably this differs from America in that rent acts as a natural
       | counterbalance here. It's not common knowledge that a university
       | graduate should move to New York or San Francisco, in fact if you
       | aren't in a top paying field it's probably common knowledge that
       | one should not move to these cities.
       | 
       | I wonder how much different the population landscape of the
       | United States would look like if NYC, the Bay Area, LA etc had
       | ever figured out how to plan for urban growth in the same way
       | Tokyo did (context: you can afford a small single family home on
       | a middle class income in Tokyo, I think prices there are around
       | 30% over other Japanese cities)
        
         | MengerSponge wrote:
         | Someone who knows more about Japanese culture and tax policy
         | needs to weigh in, but my understanding is that housing is
         | typically not considered a long-term investment vehicle, to the
         | point that houses are expected to be demolished after some
         | number of decades and depreciated accordingly.
         | 
         | This mindset prevents an established base of property owners
         | from blocking subsequent development, resulting in their
         | property values skyrocketing.
         | 
         | America might have a chance of fixing this with national-level
         | zoning, which will never happen as long as current political
         | alliances are the way they are.
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | I suspect the causality is reversed:
           | 
           | Housing is not considered a long-term investment _because_
           | demolition and new construction is easy.
        
             | asciimike wrote:
             | Really good article on zoning in Japan:
             | http://urbankchoze.blogspot.com/2014/04/japanese-
             | zoning.html
             | 
             | I think it's a bit of both, it's not viewed as as much of
             | an investment therefore zoning laws are lax, which mean
             | that housing can't become an investment because anyone can
             | build (up to) anything on a lot.
        
             | Tiktaalik wrote:
             | I think the tax code even incentivizes demolition in that
             | the taxes for sales of bare land versus land with a
             | structure on it are less.
        
             | MengerSponge wrote:
             | My instinct is that the causal arrow begins with
             | earthquakes and disposable (timber-based) building
             | practices, which keep housing/structures from being viewed
             | as stable long-term vehicles
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | Japanese houses are low quality (they have single pane
               | windows, no insulation at all, and no central heat
               | because they think it builds character). But they're no
               | more timber based than US houses are, and there's nothing
               | overly temporary about building a house out of wood,
               | especially new forms like CLT.
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | So why didnt California end up in that state, concidering
               | it has nearly the same conditions?
        
               | MengerSponge wrote:
               | That's a very good question. Probably because modern
               | California was settled by European colonizers, who
               | brought their traditional construction and property
               | practices with them?
               | 
               | I'd love to see a sociologist's analysis of the ring of
               | fire, though. If anyone knows of someone who isn't just
               | talking out their butt (like me), please drop a rec
        
               | quartesixte wrote:
               | >That's a very good question. Probably because modern
               | California was settled by European colonizers, who
               | brought their traditional construction and property
               | practices with them?
               | 
               | Like lawns! Like California is the completely wrong state
               | for lawns.
        
               | ac29 wrote:
               | California is seismically active, but not like Japan: htt
               | ps://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/77/EQs_1900
               | ...
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | csours wrote:
         | Point taken, but young people still move to larger regional
         | towns. You may move to Houston, Atlanta, Kansas City, etc for
         | economic reasons.
        
         | SapporoChris wrote:
         | One of the reasons for the immigration is while Tokyo is an
         | expensive city, its costs can be compensated with a tiny
         | apartment. However, it's not necessary to live in Tokyo. Many
         | of the surrounding cities commute to Tokyo on a daily basis.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo#Demographics "During the
         | daytime, the population swells by over 2.5 million as workers
         | and students commute from adjacent areas. This effect is even
         | more pronounced in the three central wards of Chiyoda, Chuo,
         | and Minato, whose collective population as of the 2005 National
         | Census was 326,000 at night, but 2.4 million during the
         | day.[91]"
        
           | golemiprague wrote:
        
         | lovemenot wrote:
         | Kalzumeus spoke about "Tokyo" to represent Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya
         | and other large regional cities.
         | 
         | As you might expect, these Tokyo-like cities are much more
         | expensive at their centre than at their periphery.
         | Nevertheless, I imagine your eyes may water when you find out
         | just how much more so. I only know one of these cities well,
         | and to be fair only in land values not in rentals.
         | 
         | In absolute amounts, Tokyo itself is of course more unequal
         | than smaller big cities. But the relative value distribution is
         | perhaps fairly consistent across Tokyo-like cities.
         | 
         | Within Tokyo-city, very central regions (Minato-ku) are valued
         | at 4X over central urban districts (Nakano-ku), which in turn,
         | are 8X more expensive to buy than the least valuable outer-
         | Tokyo districts (Hachioji-shi). So there's a 32X differential
         | in land values within that city's borders.
         | 
         | Now, let's zoom out from the city itself. Within just a few
         | hours drive or rail journey, we can easily get to 300X land
         | values: $300 in Minato buys the same area of land worth around
         | $1 in a fairly central district of a fairly large town in
         | Nagano. Parts of mountains obviously go for much cheaper than
         | land in these towns, but I don't have good market data for
         | that. My guess is a further 5X - 10X.
         | 
         | Undoubtedly, it is more than 1,000 times, and perhaps sometimes
         | as much as 10,000X, more expensive to buy a plot of land in
         | Japan, than another plot of the same size just 500Km - 1,000Km
         | away.
         | 
         | One may reasonably dispute these figures in detail. I did try
         | to be conservative. Nevertheless, they are certainly right in
         | the order of magnitude.
         | 
         | Getting back to your point, I would say that in spite of the
         | wonderful societal benefits of world-class transportation
         | within and between cities, if the goal was to achieve ball-park
         | economic parity across the regions then that policy in Japan
         | has been a failure. Income & expenditure? Sure ... all of Japan
         | looks pretty consistent. Property valuation? ... the
         | discrepancy is almost unfathomable.
        
           | paulmd wrote:
           | That sounds like a lot, but 32x is probably less than the
           | differential in the US between downtown manhattan and
           | suburban Jersey or Delaware, and of course there's a whole
           | rural level in the US far below that as well.
           | 
           | That said, the whole "tokyo is just turbo-expensive!" thing
           | is, in the broad strokes, generally false. Buying land in
           | high-density commercial districts is going to be expensive,
           | just like if you wanted to build a detached single-family
           | home in downtown manhattan, but to put some hard numbers to
           | it:
           | 
           | In September 2020, the average listing price for a newly
           | constructed detached wooden house in Tokyo of between 100-sqm
           | and 300-sqm (1,076 sqft and 3,229 sqft) was:
           | 
           | https://resources.realestate.co.jp/news/how-much-does-it-
           | cos...
           | 
           | > Greater Tokyo Area: Y=36,850,000 ($354,000)
           | 
           | > Tokyo (23 Wards + Western Suburbs): Y=42,880,000 ($412,000)
           | 
           | > Tokyo 23 Wards: Y=59,410,000 ($570,000)
           | 
           | > Tokyo western suburbs: Y=40,110,000 ($385,000)
           | 
           | --
           | 
           | > For July to September 2020, the average sales price for a
           | previously owned detached house in Tokyo was:
           | 
           | > Tokyo (23 Wards + Western Suburbs): Y=46,150,000 ($443,000)
           | 
           | -This was a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and an increase of
           | 14.6% compared to the April to June period, when sales
           | dropped sharply due to coronavirus social distancing
           | measures.
           | 
           | -This was also the highest average sales price since the July
           | to September (3rd quarter) 2018 period of Y=47,020,000.
           | 
           | > Tokyo 23 Wards: Y=57,170,000 ($549,000)
           | 
           | -This was a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and an increase of
           | 15.8% compared to the April to June period.
           | 
           | -This was also the highest average sales price since the July
           | to September (3rd quarter) 2018 period of Y=57,170,000.
           | 
           | > Tokyo Western Suburbs: Y=32,730,000 ($319,000)
           | 
           | -This was a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and an increase of
           | 5.7% compared to the April to June period.
           | 
           | --
           | 
           | Honestly those prices aren't bad at all for "the densest
           | metropolis in the world", especially considering the
           | excellent transportation and other infrastructure that remove
           | the need for cars (and they have cheap healthcare/etc by US
           | standards as well). That is for 1k-3k sq-ft detached family
           | homes, so that's not $300k for a shoebox, that's $300k for an
           | average home by western standards. Undoubtedly some
           | difference in materials/etc but it's not uncommon to see
           | houses going for $750k-1m in 2nd-tier or 3rd-tier tech cities
           | in the city proper and $500k+ on the outskirts.
           | 
           | The bigger factor, by US standards, is that salaries are much
           | lower, obviously that is a much bigger number if you're
           | making $50k a year at the peak of your career, but again,
           | with US housing prices generally being 2-4x japanese prices,
           | it probably ends up being similar-ish.
           | 
           | I have a friend that was subletting a room who got the boot
           | because the owner was selling, got $750k for an average
           | single-family home in a second-tier or third-tier city with
           | insane tax rates.
        
             | smcl wrote:
             | TIL my 69m^2 flat in a mid-sized Central European city is
             | "worth" broadly the same as a larger house in the Greater
             | Tokyo area :-O
        
         | JohnWhigham wrote:
         | This is what can be accomplished with a homogeneous society.
         | The US is too multicultural and has too many competing
         | interests (both people and companies) for something like this
         | to even be _thought_ of.
        
         | kryptiskt wrote:
         | Tokyo had tremendously expensive real estate before the 80s
         | bubble burst, so I wonder if it's the result of wise planning
         | as much as the outcome of the 30 years of stagnation.
        
         | burlesona wrote:
         | According to one study US GDP would be 9% higher if SF, LA, and
         | NYC made room. They estimate NYC would grow to 40 million
         | people.
         | 
         | https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388
         | 
         | Originally found via: https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-
         | housing-theory-of-e...
        
           | no_butterscotch wrote:
           | It may be good that they don't make room then.
           | 
           | I wonder if the US would just become a group of 3 or 4 large
           | sprawling city-states.
        
             | kitten_mittens_ wrote:
             | This comment reminds me of https://www.theonion.com/new-
             | study-finds-most-of-earth-s-lan....
        
             | mactrey wrote:
             | Isn't it weird to use the word "sprawling" here? A world
             | where major cities are affordable would be _more dense_. It
             | would be _easier_ to preserve land for its natural beauty.
             | The US today is sprawling.
        
             | SllX wrote:
             | SFBA (maybe w/ Sacramento Area and Monterey Bay Area),
             | Greater LA, Seattle Area, Portland+Vancouver and that's
             | just the West Coast. Add in the 4+ in Texas, two or three
             | different parts of Florida and we haven't even touched on
             | the Northeast or Midwest still.
             | 
             | Nah, the US would not become merely 3 or 4 large sprawling
             | City-States. For all of us city dwellers, there's plenty
             | that want nothing to do with anything that resembles a
             | City.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | Note that _parts_ of somewhere like NYC are extremely
         | expensive. Of course, those are the large parts of Manhattan
         | and parts of Brooklyn where young professionals want to live.
         | Other boroughs can be significantly less expensive but it 's
         | not what most professionals mean when they think NYC. Of
         | course, the general point applies. If you're talking about a
         | lower income job you can get just about anywhere, moving to
         | many big cities isn't a great financial decision.
        
       | Linda703 wrote:
        
       | Gordonjcp wrote:
       | "And then some bureaucrat realized that this created a market:
       | you, as a city government, can bid for taxpayers to select you as
       | a hometown."
       | 
       | This is the most Neal Stephenson thing I have read all morning.
        
       | EE84M3i wrote:
       | Disclaimer: IANAL, IANATA, this isn't tax advice, etc
       | 
       | Foreigners residing in Japan are eligible to participate in
       | furusato nouzei, but Americans might want to note the following
       | clause in the section "Tax Must Be the Legal and Actual Foreign
       | Tax Liability" in Publication 514 Foreign Tax Credit for
       | Individuals[1], which states:
       | 
       | >Subsidy received. Tax payments a foreign country returns to you
       | in the form of a subsidy do not qualify for the foreign tax
       | credit.
       | 
       | >The term "subsidy" includes any type of benefit. Some ways of
       | providing a subsidy are refunds, credits, deductions, payments,
       | or discharges of obligations.
       | 
       | Whether or not furusato nouzei falls under this clause seems to
       | be up for some debate, and AFAIK the IRS hasn't made a public
       | determination on it either way. I don't risk it, but I am under
       | the impression there are some that do.
       | 
       | Alternatively, the furusato nouzei portion could be not included
       | in the tax credit? But would it be worthwhile...? Sounds like it
       | depends on the situation and frankly seems like a lot of work to
       | get a few gift baskets.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.irs.gov/publications/p514#idm139978451112272
        
         | Hello71 wrote:
         | is it common to need to take the FTC on residence taxes? my
         | understanding is that US federal income taxes are lower than
         | most foreign taxes, and skimming the Japanese personal income
         | tax brackets, it seems to be slightly higher than US federal
         | income taxes (ignoring deductions).
        
         | chrischen wrote:
         | Gift baskets is just what you opt for if you don't want a cash
         | equivalent gift card.
        
         | seanmcdirmid wrote:
         | Oh man, this is so confusing, and affects any American
         | citizen/PR living abroad. In China, there are a bunch of weird
         | kickbacks on your paycheck (e.g. public medical insurance cash
         | benefit) that you have to be careful to document as income on
         | your American tax return. And the whole mess of dealing with
         | social security taxes.
        
       | jollybean wrote:
       | Now imagine this playing out on a global scale. Canada grabs a
       | ton of doctors from developing nations. US grabs tons of Canada's
       | best home grown talent for whatever economic purposes.
        
         | [deleted]
        
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