[HN Gopher] The Machine Learning Job Market
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Machine Learning Job Market
        
       Author : sebg
       Score  : 192 points
       Date   : 2022-04-25 14:58 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (evjang.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (evjang.com)
        
       | awinter-py wrote:
       | > The most important deciding factor for me was whether the
       | company has some kind of technological edge years ahead of its
       | competitors. A friend on Google's logging team tells me he's not
       | interested in smaller companies because they are so
       | technologically far behind Google's planetary-scale infra that
       | they haven't even begun to fathom the problems that Google is
       | solving now, much less finish solving the problems that Google
       | already worked on a decade ago.
       | 
       | ^ this is increasingly a choice in your career -- 'where can you
       | go to solve big problems', and 'big problems are increasingly
       | complex'
       | 
       | scale is real, and tools matter. you can spend your whole project
       | burn at the wrong company building something that you could buy
       | somewhere else, or which already exists at a competitor
       | 
       | slight grain of salt here is that G's logging system, from my
       | perspective as a gcp user, is slow as balls and the UX is the
       | incarnation of scroll jank. and also this (very good) article led
       | to the outcome of the author building soft hands happy-ending
       | robots
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | hintymad wrote:
         | I think this reasoning is flawed. Joining Google does not mean
         | you get to solve interesting problems because you will most
         | likely contribute incrementally to a vast body of work. You
         | want to build the next-gen database? You have to come up with
         | something way better than BigTable and Spanner. You want to
         | build a queue service? You've got to come up with something way
         | better than Google's PubSub, which optimizes itself all the way
         | down to the level of GBP protocols. You want to build a machine
         | learning framework? Have you checked out TensorFlow and JAX in
         | particular their ecosystem? You want to build a file system?
         | Are you sure you can overcome all the organizational inertia
         | that Google has built on Colossus over the years? You want to
         | build a 10X more productive framework for data processing? Are
         | you sure you can beat DataFlow or Flume4J-ecosystem in Google?
         | 
         | The point is, Google is a mature company. Mortals like most of
         | us don't get to break ground in a technically advanced but
         | mature company like Google. Instead, we find fast growing _new
         | problems_ to solve, to hone our skill, and to get to scale.
         | 
         | P.S., I personally know a number of prominent professors used
         | to work on the Borg projects just to optimize for a few percent
         | of gains. It's deep and interesting work, but nonetheless hard
         | for mortals like me to get much out of.
         | 
         | That is, it's a more sure bet to work for a baby Google than to
         | work for a middle-aged Google.
        
           | anonymousDan wrote:
           | Yes or work on things that are fundamentally at odds with
           | Google's business model, or on systems that in some way are
           | difficult for Google to do because they have company-spe ific
           | constraints or legacy systems
        
         | oneoff786 wrote:
         | On the other hand, there's a lot of real problems that real
         | people actually deal with that just need a logistic regression
         | to save million bucks here and there. I like that space more.
        
           | axg11 wrote:
           | This describes 95% of machine learning at FAANG+,
           | unfortunately nobody likes to talk about. Context: I work at
           | a FAANG.
        
           | difflens wrote:
           | If you have a few minutes, can you list a few of these
           | problems? Just curious here!
        
           | geebee wrote:
           | I've heard about this, in different contexts. What it mainly
           | comes down to is that incremental improvements can have
           | massive impacts when you can apply them at a scale available
           | at FAANG. I first read about this outside the context of
           | machine learning, but it certainly would apply here.
           | 
           | For those of us who don't work at such scale, can you (maybe
           | with a little fuzziness to avoid telling too much about an
           | internal project) give a few examples of the kind of projects
           | where a fairly simple model can have a 1M+ impact?
        
           | nerdponx wrote:
           | This space isn't sexy to write about, there's no fame and
           | glory in it.
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | Far sexier and larger than most care to admit.
        
             | Terry_Roll wrote:
             | The trappings are...
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VapnDFoR2U
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | htrp wrote:
         | >G's logging system, from my perspective as a gcp user, is slow
         | as balls and the UX is the incarnation of scroll jank
         | 
         | does GCP use G's internal tools?
         | 
         | Inquiring minds would like to know
        
         | adam_arthur wrote:
         | Not every problem is one of scale. And with the advent of
         | serverless, problems relating to scalability will be largely
         | abstracted from 99% of developers in the future and more of a
         | niche knowledge domain. Just as the inner workings of the OS
         | are largely not well understood by most developers
         | 
         | Obviously the principles and theory behind scalability is still
         | important for properly structuring your app, but there won't be
         | many novel problems to solve, and increasingly obvious
         | architecture choices as time goes on
        
         | rychco wrote:
         | This has become increasingly important to me too. I am employed
         | by a small (2-4 engineers at any time) company and I'm often
         | disappointed because we're just _so_ far behind in manpower  &
         | technical expertise that we have to dramatically reduce the
         | scope of any problem we want to tackle.
         | 
         | On the other hand, I also worry about getting sucked into the
         | bureaucracy of FAANG sized companies & not having any
         | accountability or agency over what I work on. (I realize this
         | is a sweeping generalization of FAANG, but some of my peers
         | have had this experience even a few years into their jobs)
        
           | fxtentacle wrote:
           | I'm surprised. Apart from DALLE, I haven't seen any AI
           | approach that's off limits for 4 highly motivated people with
           | 3090 GPUs.
           | 
           | At that compute level, you should be able to at least
           | replicate SOTA in optical flow, structure from motion, speech
           | recognition, text to speech, translation, text summary,
           | sentiment analysis, image classifications, image
           | segmentation, and of course playing video games or optimizing
           | processes with reinforcement learning.
           | 
           | I mean thanks to KiCad even custom sensor hardware is cheap
           | these days.
           | 
           | Can you give more details about what you tried to do and why
           | that wasn't possible?
        
         | altdataseller wrote:
         | You are talking about 2 commodities that can easily be
         | upgraded: logging and UX. Hell, I wouldn't even waste too many
         | precious resources on improving those things past a point.
         | 
         | Google has massive data and scaling advantages that can never
         | be duplicated or fixed by smaller companies.
        
       | YossarianFrPrez wrote:
       | Say what you will about the OP and the claims he makes in his
       | career announcement... I was struck by how casually the author
       | mentioned that Academia is behind various private companies. Call
       | me romantic, for in an ideal world Academia is just as close to
       | the cutting edge of knowledge as private R&D laboratories.
        
       | water-your-self wrote:
       | >In the future, every successful tech company will use their data
       | moats to build some variant of an Artificial General
       | Intelligence.
       | 
       | Its rare that an article loses my faith in the first sentence.
        
       | angarg12 wrote:
       | I don't want to derail the conversation, but OPs career path
       | really stood out to me.
       | 
       | He graduated in 2016, worked at Google in Bay Area, and now is
       | joining a startup at a VP level.
       | 
       | I graduated in 2008, obtained a PhD in 2014 in a no name EU
       | university, worked in odd companies for a while and joined FAANG
       | 4 years ago as a mid level developer, where I am still ATM.
       | 
       | Looking at this disparity I wonder what could be possible
       | explanations:
       | 
       | * OP is a beast and has grown very quickly in a short time.
       | 
       | * I'm particularly inept and I'm growing very slowly.
       | 
       | * Working in the right conditions (e.g. Bay Area, Big Tech, right
       | team) can greatly accelerate your growth.
       | 
       | * Startups have a big title inflation.
        
         | throw1234651234 wrote:
         | If it makes you feel any worse, a fresh-college grad just
         | worked his first month at any job on my team at a midwest
         | company and got an offer at Google making more than I am now. I
         | have over a decade of experience and endless Cloud Architect
         | certs (all 3 clouds) as well as a background in finance.
         | 
         | Right place, right time + talent + willingness to take risk.
        
         | filoleg wrote:
         | Without knowing the deatils, it is mostly #4, with a good doze
         | of #3, and potentially a decent amount of #1.
         | 
         | Basically, yeah, small/not-yet-massive startups have insane
         | overinflation in titles. Had plenty of former college
         | classmates who became "VPs" or "staff engineers" at super small
         | startups a couple years out of college. Getting plenty of
         | recruiter messages on linkedin myself for "staff engineer"
         | positions at random startups, despite me not even being a
         | senior at a FAANG yet, and only being about 4.5 years out of
         | college.
         | 
         | Another thing is, no matter how smart or hard working you are,
         | being in the right place at the right time is extremely
         | important. It won't help much if you lack skills, but being in
         | the right place at the right time is like a force multiplier on
         | your skills and the work you do. Which is partially why most of
         | the big opportunities are still heavily concentrated in a few
         | geographic spots (despite there being no tangible technical
         | need for that).
         | 
         | Don't beat yourself up over it, titles don't mean that much.
         | You are able to start a one-man-shop LLC and call yourself a
         | VP, a director, or whatever else you want. The real question
         | is, with that title, are they being compensated as much as you
         | are? If they decide to quit and get a job at a "regular" tech
         | company after, will that VP title translate into anything more
         | than an L4/L5? Just some food for thought.
        
         | twomoonsbysurf wrote:
         | I know a former Amazon Engineer. After working at Amazon as a
         | mid level engineer, co-founded his own startup in Mexico, as
         | CTO.
         | 
         | It's a startup... titles in a 50 people organization don't
         | compare to 50,000 people organization titles.
         | 
         | I'm sure you can go and be a VP at a startup too, if that's
         | what you want to do. Just go and network at Incubator,
         | Investor, & Entrepreneur events/meetups/organizations, and come
         | up with an idea & customers, then execute and try to get
         | customers on board... rinse and repeat.
        
         | axg11 wrote:
         | Don't despair. I work for a FAANG and have previously worked at
         | startups. Title inflation at startups is a huge factor. In
         | fact, titles are not equivalent between any two companies. I
         | have seen startup CTOs (even series A) transition to senior
         | engineer IC roles at a FAANG.
         | 
         | As you identified, location is the next big factor. If you are
         | still in Europe, my advice is to leave or to start your own
         | company there. If you are working for primarily US based
         | companies in Europe there will always be a limit to the level
         | of exposure you get to leadership and to how fast you can rise
         | up the hierarchy.
         | 
         | Finally, don't discount Eric's profile. Through some
         | combination of his public profile and professional work, he's
         | established a reputation and following. That is just as
         | important as any hard engineering work in securing a
         | senior/leadership role.
        
         | going_ham wrote:
         | Yeah, and the way the author presents themselves speaks volume
         | too. There is a real pride in this essay. You can see how the
         | author casually drops big names and insights like it is a fact.
         | 
         | Why does valley culture makes it seem like everything is
         | possible and anything innovative can happen soon? The
         | innovation in AI really seems like it is being made on a thin
         | line of engineering and compute. It doesn't happen overnight.
         | It requires some people working through and through to pull it
         | off. These days it requires collective contribution.
        
           | samhw wrote:
           | > The innovation in AI really seems like it is being made on
           | a thin line of engineering and compute.
           | 
           | This perfectly echoes my own thoughts. The advances being
           | trumpeted in AI are functions of hardware advances that allow
           | us to have massively overparameterised models, models which
           | essentially 'make the map the size of the territory'[0],
           | which is why they only succeed at a narrow class of
           | interpolation problems. And even then nothing useful. That's
           | why we're still being sold the "computer wins at board game"
           | trope of the 90s, and yet somehow also being told that we're
           | _right on the verge of AGI_.
           | 
           | (OK, it's not only that. There's also a healthy amount of
           | p-hacking, and a 'clever Hans effect' where the developer
           | likely-unconsciously intervenes to assure the right answer
           | via all the shadowy 'configuration' knobs ('oversampling',
           | 'regularisation', 'feedforward', etc). I always say: if you
           | develop a real AI, come show me a demo where it answers a
           | hard question _whose answer you - all of us - don 't already
           | know_.)
           | 
           | [0] Or far larger, actually. Google the 'lottery ticket
           | hypothesis'.
        
             | ChefboyOG wrote:
             | Eh, if you boil all research in AI/ML down to the binary of
             | "AGI or bust," then sure, everything is a failure.
             | 
             | But, if you look at your smartphone, virtually every
             | popular application the average person uses--Gmail, Uber,
             | Instagram, TikTok, Siri/Google Assistant, Netflix, your
             | camera, and more--all owe huge pieces of their
             | functionality to ML that's only become feasible in the last
             | decade because of the research you're referencing.
        
               | going_ham wrote:
               | These are engineering marvel! This is engineering at it's
               | finest. Applied math at it's finest. So it's not a
               | failure.
               | 
               | The way people hype AGI/AI/ML whatever undervalues the
               | actual effort behind these remarkable feat. There is so
               | much effort being made to make this work. Deep learning
               | works when it is engineered properly. So it is just
               | another tool in the toolbox!
               | 
               | Look at how graphics community is approaching deep
               | learning. They already had sampling methods but with MLPs
               | (NeRFs), they are using it as glorified database. So it's
               | engineering!
               | 
               | I want to underscore that AI/ML/DL research requires
               | ground breaking innovation not only in algorithms but
               | also in hardware and software engineering.
        
             | atorodius wrote:
             | > ,make the map the size of the territory'[0], which is why
             | they only succeed at a narrow class of interpolation
             | problems
             | 
             | I take it you have not seen the recent Dall-E 2 results?
             | Clearly that model is not just working on a narrow space.
             | 
             | See https://openai.com/dall-e-2/ and the many awe-inspiring
             | examples on Twitter
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | I disagree, there are plenty of amazing advancements in the
             | last 2 years you can't write off like that (especially
             | Instruct GPT-3 and Dall-e 2). For example I have worked on
             | a ML project in document information extraction for 4
             | years, and recently tried GPT-3 - it solved the task zero
             | shot.
        
             | bsenftner wrote:
             | > show me a demo where it answers a hard question whose
             | answer you - all of us - don't already know.
             | 
             | For that, we need artificial comprehension, which we do
             | not. Artificial comprehension, the ability to generalize
             | systems to their base components and then virtually operate
             | those base concepts to define what is possible, to virtual
             | recreate physical working system, virtually improve them,
             | and with those improvements being physically realizable is
             | probably what will finally create AGI. We need a Calculus
             | for pure ideas, not just numbers.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Machine Learning expert is the new Web Developer, so expect the
         | former title to become diluted very quickly.
        
         | ZephyrBlu wrote:
         | Probably 1 + 3 + 4. He didn't just work at Google, he worked at
         | Google Brain. And with only a Bachelor's, so I assume he's is
         | both very smart and got very lucky.
        
         | rakejake wrote:
         | Probably a combination of 1, 3 and 4. There are tons of
         | talented people even at the top but the stars have to align to
         | achieve more than your expected value.
         | 
         | PhD -> low-level dev -> FAANG mid-level is nothing to scoff at
         | so you're doing pretty well.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | rcpt wrote:
         | I'm the same deal as you. I don't really have any problems with
         | it. I worked at a startup and titles are much fancier but you
         | don't get to ship to a billion users. Also the infrastructure
         | can suck real bad.
         | 
         | Competing within a giant company for perf ratings feels like
         | school and I'm over it. But the other parts of the job are
         | great.
        
         | time_to_smile wrote:
         | Tech has a bad habit of conflating comp/prestige with skill. I
         | have no doubt the OP _is_ quite good at what they do, but you
         | not being where OP is does not therefore imply you _don 't_
         | have skill.
         | 
         | Unfortunately the tech world is not really a meritocracy.
         | 
         | When I look at my own circle of technical people the most
         | incredible ones from a pure technical ability are divided
         | between working at FAANG making 500k+ and working a relatively
         | unknown companies making ~200K or less. One of the most
         | mindbendingly brilliant people I know is working in relative
         | obscurity, known very well only among other people that are top
         | in the field, but their resume looks very ordinary compared to
         | their behind the scenes contributions to major projects.
         | 
         | Managing a career in tech is largely independent from technical
         | skills and abilities. I have met a shocking number of people
         | making lots of money at prestigious institutions that are "meh"
         | as far as technical ability goes (of course there's some great
         | ones as well), and have met plenty of brilliant people working
         | relative obscurity.
         | 
         | The success is largely a function of both background (Brown
         | does beat a "no name EU university") and personal desire to
         | have a prestigious career. There is a lot of self promotion
         | going on in this piece, in fact the OP has already convinced
         | you that they might be just a wildly better person than you. If
         | they can convince you they are this amazing, then they also can
         | convince the leadership team at a start up. But do recognize
         | that their skill demonstrated so far is only in convincing you
         | of this.
        
           | sleepdreamy wrote:
           | There is more to being a great tech employee than just being
           | 'brilliant' at the hard skills. Soft skills are just as
           | important, and play a role behind why I have been promoted
           | more than peers who surpass my skills ten-fold. Some people
           | also don't want to be in management.
           | 
           | We all have different trajectories and choices. This comment
           | makes it seem like if you aren't a technical wizard then you
           | might as well be useless. This is not reality
        
         | freyr wrote:
         | Also, the author grew up in the Bay Area (early exposure to how
         | the SV ecosystem works), went to an Ivy league school (opens
         | doors to top internships), landed those internships, and got a
         | masters. All those things, but especially the internships, can
         | help fast track your early career.
         | 
         | I'd take some things here with a grain of salt, like _"low 7
         | figures compensation (staff level)"_ at FAAN (can eliminate G
         | because they're not likely to hire him back at L+1 immediately
         | after he quits). ML is still somewhat hot, but 7 figures is an
         | outlier for staff-level comp.
         | 
         | AAPL: ~$450k
         | https://www.levels.fyi/company/Apple/salaries/Software-Engin...
         | 
         | AMZN: ~$600k
         | https://www.levels.fyi/company/Amazon/salaries/Software-Engi...
         | 
         | FB: ~$600k
         | https://www.levels.fyi/company/Facebook/salaries/Software-En...
         | 
         | Nobody there is reporting $1M+ offers for staff level. While
         | I'm sure it's happened, it's pretty far outside the staff pay
         | band (excluding equity gains during the 2020-2021 market run-
         | up, which are sadly behind us) and would be a truly exceptional
         | offer even in the current climate. That, plus the fact that it
         | sounds like he didn't get many formal offers ("I did not
         | initiate the formal HR interview process with most of them")
         | and wasn't pitting offers against each other, makes me
         | skeptical.
        
         | marcinzm wrote:
         | I was a VP at a startup (~200 people) before I was 30 without a
         | PhD. It was all BS and I had less manager qualifications than a
         | FAANG line manager. I got lucky.
         | 
         | It's clear from the blog post that the author is in the same
         | boat. They lament CEOs not having time to do research but took
         | a VP position. An actual VP doesn't have time do research so
         | they're clearly not an actual VP. So they're likely a tech lead
         | with an inflated title.
        
         | Swizec wrote:
         | > Working in the right conditions (e.g. Bay Area, Big Tech,
         | right team) can greatly accelerate your growth
         | 
         | This is the answer. I have grown more in ~7 years* of random
         | SFBA startups than I did in the previous 13 years of career in
         | Europe. Just because the kind of startup that's a dime a dozen
         | over here is a once in a lifetime opportunity back home.
         | 
         | To put this contrast into numbers: In 2021, during the pandemic
         | while "SFBA is dying" was the mem, the Bay Area raised as much
         | startup investment _as all of Europe_.
         | 
         | *I wasn't as career aggressive as I could've been, mostly for
         | visa-related reasons.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | yowlingcat wrote:
         | A few comments:
         | 
         | 1) The PhD takes a huge hit on your opportunity cost.
         | 
         | 2008-2014 is 6 years of time; for me, it was the delta between
         | starting my career as a junior engineer and becoming a tech
         | lead at a hot unicorn which let me pivot to a CTO role at a
         | small startup.
         | 
         | 2) Academic credentialism has real effects.
         | 
         | This guy did a CS degree at an Ivy in the US. He has been set
         | up for commercial success in the US tech industry through a
         | halo effect you cannot also access unless you gained access to
         | that institutional grooming at the same age. By choosing to do
         | that PHD in EU (and a no name one at that), you forfeited that
         | access.
         | 
         | In my experience, while the effect of this goes down over time,
         | it has extremely strong launch + early compounding effects.
         | 
         | 3) Risk tolerance can work to your benefit or against it.
         | 
         | You are working at a FAANG which is the safest and most cash
         | lucrative option. In all likelihood, you have a great WLB and
         | now a great blue chip brand on your resume. However, the cost
         | of this is that you're generally not going to get access to
         | projects or culture that, by virtue of your participation, set
         | you on an extremely steep growth path.
         | 
         | To get access to that, IMO, there's no real alternative to
         | achieving strong outcomes working at a startup. Of course, that
         | can be hard to do -- how do you figure out which ones are
         | future winners, and how do you get them to let you come on
         | board? I have no great answer rather than early career trial
         | and error (accepting some of it will work out poorly and
         | uncomfortably so).
         | 
         | I wouldn't say that "OP is a beast" per se, but it's much more
         | likely that they have been groomed (working in the right
         | conditions) in ways that you may not have. And yes, startups
         | titles are not comparable to big company titles. It's apples
         | and oranges.
         | 
         | The company he joined is a Series A startup, so absolutely an
         | early stage company where whether you're VP/CXO, you're
         | functionally going to be doing a player/coach role at most with
         | tons of strategy baked in. But I wouldn't call that inflation,
         | per se. Sure, it's not the equivalent of being an experienced
         | people leader and executive at a big corporation manning a
         | giant organization at its helm. But you are often times in
         | charge with significantly more responsibility and do not have
         | bureaucratic friction and slow pace to hide behind. Doing a
         | startup is just different. It's insanely risky, overall has
         | poor risk adjusted rewards, and often is a magnet for shady
         | characters. But if you can filter out the wheat from the chaff,
         | you get access to the best career opportunities available, bar
         | none.
        
       | going_ham wrote:
       | This post feels like author is insecure about his position and
       | wants to establish some validity. Having going through it all, it
       | feels delusional at best.
       | 
       | The glorified pattern matching can only take us so far. You know
       | it's working as long as there is a pattern. I wouldn't call it a
       | general intelligence per se. There is no "juice" in these
       | algorithms.
       | 
       | If we use these tools, we can immediately see where they fail and
       | where they do not. These are just a new tools in software
       | engineer's box.
        
         | visarga wrote:
         | > The glorified pattern matching can only take us so far.
         | 
         | This argument is becoming less and less convincing year by the
         | year. We're amazed that things we were sure couldn't be done
         | are actually done.
        
           | water-your-self wrote:
           | This argument has been on going, on and off, since the 1960s.
           | Show me a research paper.
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | 1960s were 60 years ago, we're talking about AI, a fast
             | paced field in the last 15 years.
        
               | going_ham wrote:
               | Definitely! There was a time when compilers were part of
               | AI research. Now they are just another tool. Same with
               | DL, they are amazing tool. We need them and they provide
               | value if used correctly.
               | 
               | I just didn't want to call it as "intelligent" and use
               | this as basis for defining "intelligence." We can call
               | them something else. It's learning to do a specialized
               | job as intended and in "intelligent" manner. But it is
               | not intelligence. Even a small ant is intelligent than
               | our current AI systems though they aren't sophisticated
               | and can't perform human task, they are intelligent than
               | AI system.
               | 
               | I hope that made sense.
        
         | fxtentacle wrote:
         | Pattern matching can solve everything, if given enough storage
         | and training data. Memorizing trillions of sentences is
         | basically what makes GPT3 amazing.
         | 
         | You're absolutely correct that patten matching AIs won't ever
         | be truly intelligent. But then again, many humans also never
         | exceed what can be simulated with good pattern matching. And an
         | AGI household robot only needs to be as smart as the maid that
         | it's replacing.
         | 
         | I'm optimistic that pure pattern matching will get us to usable
         | AGI AI.
        
           | joe_the_user wrote:
           | _Pattern matching can solve everything, if given enough
           | storage and training data._
           | 
           | There's never going to be training data for "how things are
           | going to be next year". A lot of large scale systems involve
           | emergence [1], patterns which previously were not visible
           | suddenly appearing. I think even today's AI can do things
           | that a bit beyond pattern matching (learning to learn, etc).
           | But pure matching as such is inherently limited.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergence
        
       | queuebert wrote:
       | That's some godawful typography for such a smart guy.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | Interesting that Tesla gets its own row in the pro/con table
       | while the faangs get lumped together.
        
         | gcheong wrote:
         | If Musk is to be believed their Teslabot is going to be in a
         | class by itself.
        
           | bigbillheck wrote:
           | If Musk is to be believed, Flint would have clean water.
        
         | nrmitchi wrote:
         | Why is this interesting? Tesla is... not a FAANG company?
         | 
         | Not only is there no 'T' in FAANG, but the industry/product is
         | _completely_ different.
         | 
         | Or maybe the author just wanted to make a joke about coffee.
         | Who knows.
        
         | ackbar03 wrote:
         | There's no t in faang
        
       | thunkshift1 wrote:
       | This post reeks of someone who doesnt 'need' a job and has made
       | enough money already. Good for op to go after 'exciting problems'
       | rather than the mundane will I make rent and fees
        
       | lysecret wrote:
       | Not sure why this gets so much hate. I think he's a bit too
       | optimistic about AGI prospects. But in his position these are all
       | interesting and reasonable options.
       | 
       | I'm a bit sceptical on this 10,5,1 whatever year ahead metric he
       | pulled from wherever.
       | 
       | Interesting read regardless. My opinion about the next few years
       | is that most value will come from finding your niche, creating
       | Datasets, iterating and building your ML model (a bit like he
       | wrote but without this AGI...)
        
       | minimaxir wrote:
       | As a relatively unremarkable data scientist/machine learning
       | engineer of about 5 years, I've been keeping an eye on DS/ML
       | positions as they tend to give a sense on what is important to
       | companies in that space, although I'm not actively looking for a
       | new role. More and more positions seem to require Ph.D.
       | credentials even for non-senior roles, even though modern DS/ML
       | tooling doesn't require it.
       | 
       | If I ever left my job I might have to quit DS/ML and do something
       | else entirely.
        
         | antupis wrote:
         | DE/ML ops/ Software engineer(data) is many ways new DS. Lots of
         | greenfield projects and less competition.
        
         | cwp wrote:
         | Nah, you wouldn't have to quit. If you've got 5 years
         | experience, even on non-cutting edge projects, the PhD won't
         | matter. Sure, you won't be able to get any job you want, but
         | there are lots of ML jobs that list a PhD requirement that will
         | nevertheless jump at the chance to hire someone with practical
         | experience.
        
           | minimaxir wrote:
           | Hiring managers are more generous, but HR screening the
           | resumes aren't.
        
             | cwp wrote:
             | That'll only be a problem if you're up against significant
             | number of candidates that have both experience and a PhD.
             | HR will certainly filter resumes based on something as
             | clear-cut as a degree when they can. But they can't just
             | filter everything out and tell the hiring manager he's SOL.
             | So you don't have to check all the boxes as long as you
             | check enough of them, and you're competitive with the other
             | candidates.
             | 
             | At the same time, nobody is going to do all that well if
             | they just apply online and cross their fingers. You need
             | some kind of human contact, either though an introduction
             | to an insider through your network, or through a recruiter
             | of some kind. It takes a bit of time to develop the
             | relationships, but it's quite doable and worth it, even for
             | introverts. Best to start before you're interested in
             | changing jobs.
        
       | Kalanos wrote:
       | sounds like you are coming up with excuses not to start a company
        
       | SCUSKU wrote:
       | I was expecting something along the lines of how AI/ML was
       | considered a sexy career path, but there are very few jobs
       | available and high competition for those jobs. So, as a result,
       | you end up with the only available jobs as data engineering/ML
       | ops/backend that supports ML teams. I am happy for this author
       | and their success, but they clearly are not representative of the
       | majority of the people in the ML job market.
        
         | PartiallyTyped wrote:
         | I think I have a decent CV, with quite a bit of experience for
         | a master's student. I have been searching for a job in MLE, for
         | a bit now with very little to show for it, as I am either
         | getting no responses, or responses claiming that they are
         | looking for more experienced people, and particularly those
         | that had experience with a particular stack.
         | 
         | In all honesty, after 6 years of studying, with 4 of those
         | years studying ML, to be told that I lack experience with some
         | particular stack as the ~~excuse~~ reason for rejection feels
         | like a slap in the face.
         | 
         | And all that ignoring everything that expects 3+ years
         | experience for entry level positions.
        
           | dunefox wrote:
           | I have been in a similar position with NLP - either you
           | already have a lot of experience (maybe even a PhD) or you're
           | a mathematician or statistician. Otherwise you're left out.
        
             | PartiallyTyped wrote:
             | Funny enough, my experience is NLP and DeepRL.
        
               | dunefox wrote:
               | Your best chance might be to apply at small companies.
               | They often have data and want to take advantage of it but
               | haven't so far. Of course they're not doing any research
               | or are Google, Amazon, etc. but hey.
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | mola wrote:
           | I suspect they are looking for experienced ppl because they
           | don't have one and don't exactly know how to manage ML and
           | what to do with it and hope someone else will come and show
           | them.
        
           | benibela wrote:
           | That is why I am doing a Post Doc
        
           | htrp wrote:
           | You have to be doing something wrong or applying for the
           | wrong types of jobs (lots of MLE jobs are just glorified dba
           | jobs at certain job companies).
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | mellavora wrote:
           | where are you located?
        
             | PartiallyTyped wrote:
             | Europe. I am open to relocating pretty much anywhere in
             | Western Europe or Scandinavia so my horizons are pretty
             | open.
        
               | captaincaveman wrote:
               | So central or eastern Europe ... yeah, thats gonna be
               | tough!
        
           | rdedev wrote:
           | Reading comments like this is a bummer. I am currently doing
           | my masters with a focus on NLP. At this point I'll be pretty
           | happy to get a job even if it just boils down to only
           | deploying ML models. Even for such a role of companies expect
           | years of experience or a PhD I don't know how I can even get
           | a job in the first place
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | I sometimes interview candidates for ML engineering roles,
             | and let me tell you most of them have trouble with basic
             | concepts. It's great when I find someone fluent, for a
             | change.
        
               | PartiallyTyped wrote:
               | Basic concepts referring to what precisely?
        
           | orzig wrote:
           | I can only speak for Boston area, but I've been on teams who
           | regularly welcome those with only 1-2 years of experience
           | (even if it wasn't that relevant, as long as they had
           | relevant schooling). I don't know if you consider that
           | positive or negative evidence, but there it is.
        
           | nbardy wrote:
           | Start building projects on your own with the most common
           | tooling. Having something to show cuts down barriers.
        
         | georgeburdell wrote:
         | That was my pre-conception as well. I know some people who have
         | tried to switch from other engineering to ML/AI, some taking as
         | much as a year off work, and the only successful ones already
         | had a network in the Bay Area from their previous associations
         | (prestigious university/employer).
        
           | rakejake wrote:
           | Yep, at that level, there is a ton of competition. The self-
           | driving industry is almost like the video game industry and
           | actually has a ton of employees who previously worked in
           | video games. They are definitely much better compensated in
           | ADAS but the work culture is similar (anecdotally so YMMV).
           | 
           | ML is the sexy wing of the tech industry, so it tends to
           | attract the people who are willing to put in the hours (for
           | interviews as well as towards work).
        
       | bjornlouser wrote:
       | AGI, AGI, AGI, AGI, AGI, AGI...
       | 
       | https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5de799b06bb59b...
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | queuebert wrote:
       | "Product impact is even slower than robotics due to regulatory
       | capture by hospitals and insurance companies."
       | 
       | The author apparently does not understand regulatory capture and
       | is throwing around catch phrases to sound smart. Regulatory
       | capture would imply that healthcare encounters less regulation
       | than it should due to influence over the relevant government
       | agencies. This should increase product impact and reduce time to
       | market, the opposite of what he suggests.
        
         | axg11 wrote:
         | Doesn't the author's sentence mean: hospitals and insurance
         | companies have coopted regulators for the benefits of their own
         | businesses, at the detriment of medical device companies
         | (developing AI)?
         | 
         | I think the author's point still stands.
        
           | queuebert wrote:
           | Possibly that was the intended meaning, but the point is
           | still invalid. Hospitals want more cool gadgets. They want to
           | be able to treat more conditions and charge more for it. If
           | anything, the FDA is a constant annoyance to a healthcare
           | provider because it hamstrings them from providing care. This
           | is why so many patients are enrolled in clinical trials, to
           | get care ahead of the FDA approval time frame.
        
       | redsh wrote:
       | See you in Rome
        
       | falsenine wrote:
       | As someone whose intention is to go to Medical School and pick up
       | programming (+ math skills) to potentially work at the
       | intersection of ML + Healthcare, the knowledge of the regulatory
       | hurdles expressed is discouraging. Not sure if it really is worth
       | the effort to study tech on top of medicine. Are there any people
       | with experience within ML + Healthcare/Medicine or know of
       | startups that are making great strides within this realm?
        
         | rakejake wrote:
         | I used to work in the healthcare vertical. While there are
         | regulatory hurdles, they are there for good reason. Move fast
         | and break things does not work in this industry and will get
         | you fired.
         | 
         | You will have better luck working with one of the larger
         | companies who have a good history with the FDA, and more
         | importantly, have good relationships with hospitals and
         | physicians. They are aware of the time and resources it takes
         | to push something out. Pay will not be FAANG level or anywhere
         | close, but they usually have great work culture and WLB.
        
       | warner25 wrote:
       | Can someone with only 6 years of experience make credible
       | predictions about things 20 years in the future?
       | 
       | I'm around 15 years of experience, and my appreciation for my own
       | lack of knowledge and ability to make predictions still grows
       | with every year.
        
         | xpe wrote:
         | I'll bite on the above loaded question: Define experience.
         | However you do, it should at least include work, education, and
         | life in general, given that such experiences relate to the
         | context or situation.
        
           | warner25 wrote:
           | Yeah, it was a bit snarky, but still an honest question. In
           | some domains, like astronomy or geology or climate change, I
           | guess it seems reasonable to make predictions 100 or 1,000
           | years in the future based on available data rather than
           | experience. In other domains, like politics or economics or
           | finance, it seems like there would be much more value in
           | having worked through a bunch of election and business cycles
           | over the years. I'm not sure where computing and AI sits on
           | that spectrum. I can imagine a young AI researcher failing to
           | realize that some approach was tried and found to be a dead-
           | end 30 years ago.
           | 
           | On the definition of experience, I agree that education and
           | life experience counts. I said "around 15" years for myself
           | because the definition is fuzzy. I got some very specific
           | career preparation and training in college, so that sort of
           | counts, and I probably spend more personal time than many of
           | my peers learning about relevant history and current events.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | benibela wrote:
       | Or you can go into academia to work on the really hard problems
       | on a 5 figures salary.
        
       | spupe wrote:
       | A lot of opinions and unverifiable statements (this and this
       | company is X years ahead of everyone), and the whole piece is
       | essentially about one person's job market. Skip
        
         | melling wrote:
         | I'm interested in understanding the ML job market for
         | traditional software developers.
         | 
         | Does the opportunity exist to transition into any particular ML
         | roles then grow from there?
        
           | claytonjy wrote:
           | I've been seeing a lot of Data Engineering/Platform roles
           | that support ML without requiring past ML experience. How
           | much future lateral movement would be available to you will
           | vary widely, but this would be a fairly easy inroad.
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | You need 3-4 years of intense study to transition from
             | software engineering to ML. It's different enough.
        
           | joshvm wrote:
           | Sure, there are many sides to ML. One is the data science
           | bit, curating data, picking a good model. Adjacent to this is
           | research into new models or training methods.
           | 
           | The other side is deploying it efficiently, and that becomes
           | a more routine software engineering problem. Fundamentally
           | you have some code that you want to run as fast as possible
           | on the cheapest hardware you can feasibly use. Large
           | companies like Google have the luxury of splitting this out
           | into several distinct roles - from pure researchers (people
           | publishing papers), to people who train models for business
           | purposes (eg the Google Lens, computational photography,
           | Translate), to people who optimise the ML library code
           | underneath, to people who build out the end user application
           | with the ML model as a black box service.
           | 
           | Most of those people don't need to know much ML, but the
           | exposure can help you transition into a more ML focused role.
        
           | ccmonnett wrote:
           | Especially if you have Python experience, then yes the
           | opportunity definitely exists.
           | 
           | For example when I hire MLEs (which I am doing now if anyone
           | wants to apply - supportlogic.io) I am willing to look at
           | people who are solid Python/backend engineers and who have
           | been "ML adjacent" or who we believe could learn the ropes of
           | ML enough to contribute. The stronger an engineer, the more
           | flexibility we have in ML knowledge. Some ML engineering is
           | task-specific but a lot of it is automation, data
           | engineering, and improving data scientist code (for which you
           | do need ML experience
           | 
           | I've found it's a lot easier to teach an engineer enough
           | DS/ML fundamentals to do ML Engineering than it is to teach a
           | data scientist engineering skills. A _lot_ easier...
        
             | anonymousDan wrote:
             | Interesting. Honestly to me Python and backend engineer are
             | effectively orthogonal skillsets though. I would expect any
             | decent programmer to pick up Python in about a week...
             | (slight exaggeration but you get the point).
        
       | opensrcken wrote:
       | The post is not only too braggadocious for my taste, but some of
       | the figures quoted are highly unlikely. I would personally not
       | work for someone with this kind of ego, but there are many such
       | people in positions of power.
       | 
       | This article is representative of an attitude I'm seeing around
       | the tech industry, and if this is indeed the level of
       | "confidence" in the Bay, I don't think that's a good sign.
        
         | mysterEFrank wrote:
         | Eric Jang is top ML talent, these numbers are accurate. I work
         | in ML and have followed his work for years
        
           | water-your-self wrote:
           | He claims to be solving general intelligence in 20 years.
           | Your advocacy is not enough to convince me.
        
             | marginalia_nu wrote:
             | General intelligence has been 20 years away since the 60s,
             | along with fusion power and a bunch of other things.
             | 
             | In marketing, they say 5 years when it's actually 20 years
             | away.
        
           | davnn wrote:
           | Still.. do you think being a top talent in ML guarantees
           | success for your own company, for example? I think there are
           | a lot of valuable skills to have, being an expert in X is
           | just one of them.
        
       | blauditore wrote:
       | > Low 7 figures compensation (staff level)
       | 
       | Odd choice of level, since the author worked at one of these
       | companies and was not at that level, certainly did not make 7
       | figures.
        
         | bwy wrote:
         | They spent 2 years at the senior level at one FAANG. Why would
         | they switch to another for anything less than the staff (senior
         | + 1) level?
         | 
         | (Not saying anyone "deserves" that or that's how it should be,
         | but that's just how it is here in the valley.)
        
       | usgroup wrote:
       | I appreciate the post in the sense that it is an insightful
       | perspective that he didn't have to share. If you are elite it is
       | difficult to talk about your options, pay or way of thinking
       | without it coming across as nothing but hubris to the rest of us.
        
       | akhmatova wrote:
       | _In the future, every successful tech company will use their data
       | moats to build some variant of an Artificial General
       | Intelligence._
       | 
       | Is that what one gets paid 7 figures for - to go out in public
       | and claim they "know" things like this with a straight face?
        
       | jowdones wrote:
        
       | oneoff786 wrote:
       | People are hopping on this guy for saying he'll solve agi in 20
       | years, but I'm already laughing at him thinking he'll be creating
       | value with humanoid robots in 1 year.
        
       | sfriedr wrote:
        
       | vmception wrote:
       | You forgot to write that crypto _startups_ compete with publicly
       | traded FAANG on compensation on both cash and non-cash
       | compensation, and there is no liquidity issue whatsoever on the
       | non-cash they pay you with. Vesting schedules are _more_
       | competitive than FAANG.
       | 
       | And the publicly traded crypto companies compete with FAANG on
       | compensation too.
       | 
       | Non-crypto startups are the only ones sitting in the doldrums
       | left out to dry right now.
        
         | claytonjy wrote:
         | This doesn't sound quite right to me; Coinbase pays well, but
         | looking at levels.fyi it's not FAANG money; is there someone
         | else you have in mind?
         | 
         | Would love to hear more about the startups; I tend to turn down
         | such opportunities far before we talk non-cash comp.
        
           | vmception wrote:
           | Levels fyi shows its FAANG money at all levels I have it
           | listed alongside Google and Amazon and Facebook right now,
           | what did you compare that seemed different? (They're not
           | reporting consistent 7 figures for any of them) did you see
           | something more granular?
           | 
           | Outside of publicly traded crypto companies you need to talk
           | to a third party recruiter in that space
           | 
           | Solana Labs, for example, one of many, was paying engineers
           | $650,000 back in 2019-2020 (and still is) to mostly write in
           | Rust. Compensation was ~$200k cash and $1.6-$2 million in
           | Solana tokens vesting 3-4 years with 1 year cliff. Solana
           | tokens were $.10 cents back then, so those engineers are
           | sitting on like $100 million+ as Solana trades at $100/sol
           | now, down from $250/sol.
           | 
           | For more typical results, companies that pay in crypto only
           | have a few employees so giving them all a few million dollars
           | in their much smaller less successful crypto still results in
           | being able to liquidate close to the notional value they
           | started with, derisking your time and coming out ahead in
           | general. A "tiny" crypto is still like a $30 million
           | marketcap. Even the $300 million marketcap ones are
           | considered tiny. Market depth / liquidity is usually enough
           | to support a few million dollars of periodic employee sell
           | pressure.
        
             | djenendik wrote:
             | so you are saying there's a chance these solana engineers
             | are sitting on a billion in crypto?
        
               | sorry_outta_gas wrote:
               | probably, that's what tends to happen when you literally
               | make money
        
               | vmception wrote:
               | collectively? yeah, sure. this is absolutely probable in
               | any organization of that valuation/marketcap, the most
               | interesting thing here is just how fast crypto
               | organizations can accrue and extract value.
               | 
               | tech sector is fast, crypto subsector is like an order of
               | magnitude faster. its similar to tech employment in the
               | 90s where there was fast vesting (mostly due to quick
               | exits), liquidity at super low valuations that then rose
               | extremely quickly and attractive compensation. the main
               | difference now is that the valuations are much much
               | higher. you can tap in sometimes/often at very low
               | valuations - of the token - and also ride them up all the
               | way to billions valuation very quickly. if they solve a
               | market need (within the crypto space) then they attract
               | value very quickly, sometimes that market need can just
               | be the entertainment coming from hype, but most times its
               | bandwidth since there is not enough blockspace to go
               | around, periodically.
        
               | djenendik wrote:
               | I'm just multiplying 1.6M by 1000. assuming a Solana
               | engineer held on to every token they were granted.
        
               | vmception wrote:
               | Ah, nice, its possible. Yeah earning crypto has always
               | been a greater way to make a lot of money quickly than
               | trying to buy and trade cryptos, because there is no
               | financial risk with your pre-existing capital.
               | 
               | Team and advisor allocations have been this, and have
               | been my best trades. Vesting grants for employees can be
               | lucrative too. Often times these are also discounted
               | prices to whatever any buyer can get. So things amplify
               | very quickly, and there are less ways to lose.
        
             | cellis wrote:
             | It's important to keep in mind that working at the next
             | Solana Labs, Alameda Research etc is roughly equivalent in
             | probability as getting drafted in the NBA. That is to say,
             | there aren't a lot of cases that happen.
        
               | vmception wrote:
               | I did say that
               | 
               | > For more typical results,
        
       | 1024core wrote:
       | "FAANG+similar : Low 7 figures compensation (staff level),
       | technological lead on compute (~10 yr)"
       | 
       | I don't know where OP is getting these figures from, but I doubt
       | that FAANGs offer 7-figure comps to Staff-level people. It's
       | probably more in the higher 6-figure level (400K - 600K).
        
         | ironrabbit wrote:
         | The author is a skilled research scientist in a very
         | competitive space with some high-profile publications (e.g.
         | Gumbel Softmax). He is absolutely an outlier, but not a unicorn
         | -- AI researchers with good publications and reputation will
         | attract a lot of interest from companies with lots of money to
         | spend. Low 7-figures for an ~L7 research scientist with
         | competing offers from FAANG research labs is not crazy.
        
         | greatpostman wrote:
         | 600k is a senior engineers wage
        
           | opensrcken wrote:
           | No, it's not. If you get lucky with stock market movements,
           | that might be your _total annual comp_ , which is not your
           | wage. I made close to what you're claiming at senior level,
           | at the recent _peak_ of stock market insanity, but I 'd stick
           | to the dictionary definition of "wage."
        
             | cellis wrote:
             | This all day. Sure if you joined FB in March 2020 your
             | total comp today will be a multiple of that 700k, but FB is
             | not giving out 600k packages today to e5s ( and e5 imo is
             | staff+ at many lower tier companies ), more like 450k all
             | in compensation.
        
         | bifurcations wrote:
         | People are conflating SWE (or "research scientist" in name)
         | bands with research scientist bands at labs like Brain. This
         | guy is an outlier.
         | 
         | "You can only be level X with compensation Y after Z YOE" is
         | one of the greatest infohazards in tech.
        
         | ren_engineer wrote:
         | looking at levels.fyi it seems there are at least several
         | companies paying 7 figures to ML engineers with less than 10
         | years experience, although majority are at 15+
         | 
         | https://www.levels.fyi/Salaries/Software-Engineer/Machine-Le...
        
         | digitallyfree wrote:
         | I'd be interested in a credible source for this as well, even
         | though ML work pays more. From what I know from people in the
         | industry it's 6 not 7 figures.
        
           | ankeshanand wrote:
           | https://aipaygrad.es/
        
         | joshuamorton wrote:
         | ML/AI initial offers can be fairly inflated
         | (https://aipaygrad.es/)
        
         | axg11 wrote:
         | OP is probably in the best situation to judge this since they
         | likely had competing offers or at the very least know peers
         | with competing offers at FAANG+ staff level.
        
         | redredrobot wrote:
         | Currently on the job market in the AI space in the Bay Area -
         | 400k to 600k is senior level at FAANG + similar. Low 7 figures
         | at staff wouldn't shock me (although I don't have any actual
         | data on that)
        
           | opensrcken wrote:
           | Pay definitely doesn't increase by 600k+ as you go from
           | senior to staff. Yikes. Are people larping on HN?
        
           | tmp_anon_22 wrote:
           | Can we pause and admire a data scientist drawing conclusions
           | while being utterly unconcerned with underlying data? ;)
        
             | pvalue005 wrote:
             | that's ok, they are bayesian
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | cjalmeida wrote:
       | "Crypto community has weird vibes"
       | 
       | that's what I call an understatement.
        
         | axg11 wrote:
         | One person's weird vibes is another person's great vibes.
        
       | ozten wrote:
       | Author is going to Halodi Robotics.
       | 
       | I always thought that human shaped robots are a terrible form
       | factor. Why limit yourself to the awkward design that 3.77
       | billion years of evolution accidentally landed on?
        
         | me_me_mu_mu wrote:
         | Why do you think it is an accident? I thought evolution is an
         | adaptation mechanism. If anything I'd say we've got a pretty
         | cool form factor (peak human form, not like me who is out of
         | shape lmao).
        
           | pvalue005 wrote:
           | The human body has been optimized for a very complex
           | objective function, and in a very different environment to a
           | robot. If you specify what the robots are doing, and the set
           | of constraints like power source, size, weights, etc., the
           | optimal design will unlikely be humanoid.
        
           | ozten wrote:
           | I used the word accident to emphasize that there is no design
           | or designer. I agree that evolution is adaptive and often
           | creates optimal solutions.
        
         | riazrizvi wrote:
         | Perhaps because that form factor has heavily informed
         | civilization's current challenges?
        
         | tuckerman wrote:
         | There is a school of thought in robotics/AI that believe
         | embodiment is necessary (or at least the fastest way) for us to
         | learn abstract thought. Embodiment can really span the gamut of
         | meanings, but there are definitely researchers that believe
         | humanoid robots are the best path forward to that goal.
         | 
         | If you have a more specific goal in mind, e.g. solving a small
         | set of industrial/commercial use cases, that changes the
         | calculus dramatically.
        
         | sligor wrote:
         | Human shaped robot is not a technical solution, it is a feature
        
       | alfor wrote:
       | Speed of iteration is all that matter.
       | 
       | That is why all the big like Google no longer push things
       | forward, even with the best engineer and Phds and with so much
       | money.
       | 
       | That's why I think that Optimus at Tesla will crush all the other
       | robotic platform.
       | 
       | On the positive side success of Optimus will help startups to get
       | funds or get acquired by corporations that want to get a slice of
       | the newly proven market.
        
         | sidibe wrote:
         | You are confusing speed of iteration with speed of
         | announcements. There is a lot of stuff that happens, like
         | research and process building, at a big "slow" company like
         | Google that Tesla doesn't even realize is needed yet. Tesla
         | makes a stream of wildly optimistic announcements that makes it
         | feel like it's closing the gap with Waymo for example, but
         | there's no evidence that it is
        
           | alfor wrote:
           | The iterations happen way faster too. Look at Munro teardown
           | of Tesla, he has never see a tenth of that rate of change
           | ever.
           | 
           | Look at what SpaceX accomplished. Look where OpenAI is given
           | the time it's been operating. Look at Tesla rate of
           | production increase.
           | 
           | It's going to be _very_ hard to compete with Tesla at this
           | point. So much ressources, so much bright engineers, all the
           | knowledge in manufacturing, all the training on vision, etc.
        
             | sidibe wrote:
             | I guess the difference is you think they have more
             | resources, more bright engineers, and I'm quite certain
             | they don't. I'd guess Tesla has several times less
             | engineers working on FSD than Waymo and making much lower
             | salaries, and they are spread across large parts of the
             | stack that Waymo can just tap into Google for.
        
       | TigeriusKirk wrote:
       | Off topic a bit - "Halodi Robotics (company he's joining) intends
       | to produce thousands of humanoid robots by 2023"
       | 
       | Are humanoid robots just around the corner? Musk claims Tesla
       | will have a "prototype" humanoid robot this year. I dismissed
       | that as Elon hype, but have I missed this coming?
        
         | throwaway889900 wrote:
         | The only thing you need for a humanoid robot is for it to be
         | human shaped and have some electronics inside of it. Doesn't
         | mean it has to even remotely be human in interaction.
        
           | captaincaveman wrote:
           | The robots on their site look pretty clunky to me, not to say
           | they aren't doing smart things.
        
       | zcw100 wrote:
       | After how many years of Facebook, instagram, youtubers, LinkedIn
       | do people still not get it? This is the internet. How on earth
       | can you verify the veracity of the authors statements? Everyone
       | is discussing this like a blog post on themselves is an accurate
       | portrayal of reality. It might be, but it might not. I'm not
       | saying they're being dishonest, with they may be, but they are
       | definitely not incentivized to give you an accurate portrayal of
       | their life. This is instagram for IT nerds and there is no way
       | they have a Badonkadonk that big.
        
         | water-your-self wrote:
         | Ah but its much more fun when everyone hosts their own blog.
        
         | fartcannon wrote:
         | To me, outside of this world, it feels like when one of the
         | guys at a shop just like ours wins the lottery a few cities
         | over. Everyone's just dreaming big for the fun of it.
        
       | sydthrowaway wrote:
       | This guy is another Dan Luu. Insufferable posts.
        
       | jstx1 wrote:
       | - This really isn't representative of the ML job market because
       | the author is such an outlier.
       | 
       | - The fact that it isn't representative is what makes the article
       | an interesting read.
       | 
       | - The fact that they claim to have a plan for solving AGI in 20
       | years really detracts from their credibility.
        
         | shepardrtc wrote:
         | > - The fact that they claim to have a plan for solving AGI in
         | 20 years really detracts from their credibility.
         | 
         | I see they're going the cold fusion route.
        
         | redredrobot wrote:
         | There are some groups defining AGI in a way where a 20 year
         | timeline is aggressive but not impossible. The real question is
         | how is AGI being defined by the author.
        
         | queuebert wrote:
         | The problem with AGI is that it is people like this who are
         | developing it.
        
         | evrydayhustling wrote:
         | On the plus side, the article accidentally produces the most
         | useful definition I've seen of AGI. If you just define AGI as
         | the the union and convergence of all hard problems, then you
         | can just say "I'm working on AGI" to let people know you're
         | doing the smartest, hardest thing, without sweating any
         | details.
        
         | hervature wrote:
         | As someone who is in a somewhat similar position as the author
         | (looking for senior ML roles), I found this part enjoyable:
         | 
         | > I'm not like one of those kids that gets into all the Ivy
         | League schools at once and gets to pick whatever they want.
         | 
         | Followed by "FAANG + similar" and a deluge of options. Also, I
         | feel like their message is pretty liberal with using future
         | projections and implying it to be the present. For instance,
         | the author has 6 years of experience with 2 at the senior
         | level. This is pretty far from "staff level" (at 1M+
         | compensation, I think this is L8) which they imply is/was an
         | option at a FAANG company. I don't doubt that in 5 years they
         | would be at that level, but they almost certainly did not get
         | offered a "staff" position at a FAANG.
        
           | cletus wrote:
           | These outliers are rare but they do exist.
           | 
           | I knew someone at Google who was hired as L3 straight out of
           | college (as all non-PhDs are) and got promoted once a year to
           | L6 (Staff) so 3 years. He got promoted to L7 2 years after
           | that.
           | 
           | It's a rare combination of talent and the right circumstances
           | but it does happen.
        
             | hervature wrote:
             | I tried to hint at this by using quotes, I don't doubt that
             | L6 is possible. But, please elucidate, are there L6s at
             | Google making "low 7 figures"? From levels.fyi, there are
             | no such reports. The average is about half and matches what
             | I know from other companies. Those that are approaching 7
             | figures have at least a decade of experience. Anyway, the
             | pay he describes is much closer to L8.
        
               | deep_etcetera wrote:
               | You can see some examples here https://aipaygrad.es/
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | titanomachy wrote:
           | FAANG staff in 5-6 years out of school is not impossible. I
           | know a couple. They are significant outliers in terms of
           | focus, dedication (i.e. hours worked), and raw intelligence.
           | If I had to guess, I'd say 1 in 30 from the population of
           | Google-level engineers.
        
             | krat0sprakhar wrote:
             | > They are significant outliers in terms of focus,
             | dedication (i.e. hours worked), and raw intelligence.
             | 
             | As someone who has worked at FAANG for 5 years right out of
             | school, getting to staff is less about raw intelligence and
             | more about being lucky with working on projects that did
             | not get canned and finding supportive managers. My friends
             | much smarter than me have not had a good growth purely
             | because they were unlucky with initial team assignment and
             | PA / reorgs cancelling their projects.
        
               | davnn wrote:
               | Is there a large org where commitment/getting things done
               | is more important/valued than social skills/network/luck?
               | I.e. is there a fair model to measure an individual's
               | contribution?
        
           | jstx1 wrote:
           | It's ambitious bordering on delusional. They're also doing
           | the dirty trick of putting "2016 - 2022 Senior Research
           | Scientist at Robotics at Google" on their resume even though
           | they've been in the senior position only since 2020. Like,
           | dude, you're doing great, your resume doesn't need any more
           | artificial pumping up. Or I guess it does if you're aiming
           | for those positions that are kind of out of reach.
        
             | colonelxc wrote:
             | I don't think that is unusual to list the latest level on a
             | resume. I'm certainly not going to dedicate space on a
             | resume to list time ranges for every promotion.
        
               | jstx1 wrote:
               | So if this person had been promoted to staff level in
               | 2022, they could have changed their resume to "Staff
               | Research Scientist, 2016-present" and that would be okay
               | with you? Because it seems deliberately misleading to me.
               | 
               | It's different if the level isn't represented in the
               | title - if they went from one band to another but the
               | title was the same, I don't see a problem with putting
               | down something like "Software Engineer, 2016-present"
               | without wasting space on each promotion.
        
               | colonelxc wrote:
               | In general, yes, I think that would be okay. I think it
               | would be a mistake to create separate sections for each
               | level. Overall your achievements within a single company
               | should not be organized chronologically, but by what you
               | want to show off. This may still be mostly chronological
               | as you take on more responsibility/leadership.
               | 
               | Now, I don't object to adding a line like: "promoted
               | twice from Software Engineer 2 to Staff Software
               | Engineer" or whatever, which I think is a good middle
               | ground (and I would put this as the very last, least
               | important entry for that company)
        
               | uoaei wrote:
               | But it undeniably misleads the reader into thinking this
               | person has held senior _responsibilities_ since 2016,
               | which is outright false, and may instill in the reader
               | more confidence than is due.
        
               | pbronez wrote:
               | As a hiring manager, I don't assume that. When there's a
               | single title over a long range of time, I assume it's a
               | terminal title. I look to the details for the position to
               | see what kinds of work they've done. In the interview,
               | I'll dig into trajectory and experience at various
               | levels.
        
               | uoaei wrote:
               | Then how am I to communicate to you, the hiring manager,
               | that I held significant responsibilities for a longer
               | period of time (eg 6 years) than an applicant who ducked
               | out the moment their new title kicked in (eg 6 weeks)?
               | 
               | How much does that matter to you, anyway?
        
               | mbrameld wrote:
               | I'll add another data point in opposition. I expect to
               | see only the latest title for each company on a resume
               | and my resume is organized the same way. It's practical,
               | not deceptive.
        
           | toddm wrote:
           | Ironically, he graduated from Brown University, an Ivy League
           | school.
        
             | ZephyrBlu wrote:
             | And he worked in one of the most exclusive teams, Google
             | Brain.
        
               | toddm wrote:
               | Kids who graduate from Ivy League schools get a lot of
               | job offers at once and get to pick whatever they want.
        
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