[HN Gopher] Did the W-boson just "break the standard model"?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Did the W-boson just "break the standard model"?
        
       Author : IdealeZahlen
       Score  : 204 points
       Date   : 2022-04-30 13:22 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (backreaction.blogspot.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (backreaction.blogspot.com)
        
       | pigtailgirl wrote:
       | space time covered this well a few days back--
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0Q4UAiKacw&ab_channel=PBSSp...
        
         | tizio13 wrote:
         | Yep, good video for anyone interested. The visuals in this one
         | are particularly good.
        
       | k2xl wrote:
       | I just started watching (and enjoying) Sabine's YouTube channel
       | after one of her posts were shared on HN the other week.
       | 
       | I am surprised to find so many people here have negative opinions
       | on Sabine. I've probably seen a dozen videos about the double
       | slit experiment but her explanation about it (and why the other
       | videos were not precise/accurate) was really eye opening for me
       | as a layman. Also her explanations about delayed observer not
       | being as "weird" as people claim was also very helpful in
       | demystifying quantum weirdnesses.
       | 
       | She seems like a competent physicist with strong opinions that
       | are grounded in some basis - can someone elaborate why they don't
       | like her points of view? Are they problematic scientifically or
       | do they just not like her style of rhetoric?
        
         | ravi-delia wrote:
         | She's a contrarian physicist. Every good physicist has one
         | weird opinion, but she's collected every one of them and used
         | them to beat anyone in hearing range over the head. No single
         | take is far from the norm, but in terms of layman's content
         | it's easy to get a really warped idea of the dominant paradigm.
         | 
         | Honestly I think fewer people would have an issue with her if
         | she was like 80% less abrasive, no matter how out there her
         | ideas are. So keep watching, but be aware that there are
         | conflicting viewpoints with more significant backing.
        
       | kristianp wrote:
       | This is the tldr for me:
       | 
       | "the mean value of the new measurement isn't so different from
       | earlier data analyses. The striking thing about this new analysis
       | is the small error bar. That the error bar is so small is the
       | reason why this result has such a high statistical significance.
       | They quote a disagreement with the standard model at 6.9 sigma.
       | That's well above the discovery threshold in particle physics
       | which is often somewhat arbitrarily put at 5 sigma."
       | 
       | "What did they do to get the error bar so small? Well for one
       | thing they have a lot of data. But they also did a lot of
       | calibration cross-checks with other measurements, which basically
       | means they know very precisely how to extract the physical
       | parameters from the raw data, or at least they think they do. Is
       | this reasonable? Yes. Is it correct? I don't know. It could be.
       | But in all honesty, I am very skeptical that this result will
       | hold up. More likely, they have underestimated the error and
       | their result is actually compatible with the other measurements."
       | 
       | I think it's great that someone can tell me about the nature of
       | the difference in the mass and whether it's likely to hold up
       | under more scrutiny (no). I believe Sabine's judgement here as
       | other small discrepancies have disappeared in the past.
        
       | shadowofneptune wrote:
       | What implications would this discovery have if the evidence for
       | it was overwhelming? The article talks about super-symmetry, but
       | couldn't it be also possible that we get out of it just some
       | small revisions to the standard model?
        
         | msarchet wrote:
         | My understanding is that the mass relates to particles that the
         | w boson would have to interact with during collisions for it to
         | have the mass that was measure. Our known model doesn't predict
         | this which means there might be particles that we haven't found
         | in our current model. Which is where the super symmetry comes
         | from
        
         | thayne wrote:
         | Historically, that is usually what happens. This wouldn't be
         | the first time the standard model was adjusted to fit observed
         | phenomena, and it probably won't be the last.
        
       | PaulHoule wrote:
       | Supersymmetry is simple in the context of string theory, which is
       | where it came from.
       | 
       | Write it down for particles and it is as godawful mess.
        
       | analog31 wrote:
       | I'm a physicist, but was never smart enough to grok particle
       | physics. Today I work on measurement instruments.
       | 
       | Still, I think breaking the standard model is a good thing. It
       | means there's more physics to be discovered.
       | 
       | Like Tolstoy said about happy families, successful physics
       | theories are boring. In fact, if a fundamental theory is too
       | successful, physicists start to get restless. The people who have
       | a problem with breaking the standard model are those who were
       | looking for a perfect final theory, or who wasted their time
       | looking for its philosophical implications.
        
       | rob_c wrote:
       | No. Particle physics has shown a clear need for a clean next gen
       | e/p collider. The author unfortunately got caught up in the grind
       | of the field and not the context or big picture. And frankly this
       | is exemplified by the US having an even stronger publish or
       | perish attitude. Almost nobody ever in the field has used the
       | phrase "god particle", at least in Europe. Thats yet another
       | american contribution I'm sorry.
       | 
       | Fine, leave the field, thats your prerogative, and do whats best
       | for you. But please get back down off a soapbox and stop
       | attacking the field that trained, educated and gave you the
       | knowledge you have.
        
         | 8note wrote:
         | Has it shown a clear need? What's the required energy needed to
         | show the new thing, and what what need does it fill?
         | 
         | Will the next collider solve climate change?
        
           | edgyquant wrote:
           | > Will the next collider solve climate change?
           | 
           | This is an irrelevant appeal to emotion, try to engage
           | faithfully
        
           | rob_c wrote:
           | Higgs energy, discrepencies, and the need for precision
           | higgs-science which we can only really do with a precision
           | e/p collider rather than the dual-barral shotgun that is the
           | LHC. The need it fills is to answer open questions about the
           | standard model not explaining all known particle (the stuff
           | you're made from) interactions or behaviours.
           | 
           | Asking if it solved climate change is like me asking if your
           | netflix subscription does. I'll ask nicely please don't be
           | facetious.
        
           | saiya-jin wrote:
           | However pressing you may feel climate change is, it shouldn't
           | be the sole focus of mankind for around trillion reason, give
           | or take. We need progress on all fronts, hard science as much
           | as more societal-oriented ones and everything around and in
           | between. Just look at current world...
        
       | acim wrote:
       | Yes, it did. We know nothing.
        
       | SubiculumCode wrote:
       | It is not my field, but the post, the video, has all the markings
       | I see of outrage influencers on youtube: acting like they know
       | better than everyone else, making broad swipes and claims,
       | posting monetized videos with exaggerated eye popping photo
       | covers, and the whole "I used to be them but saw the light and
       | left schtick.", claims of scientists lying, without the honesty
       | of naming names. Well, I'd rather get this kind of review from a
       | review article in a solid journal than this tabloid.
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | Don't respond to tone rather than content, _especially_ if you
         | 're in no position to evaluate the content. Otherwise you'll
         | fall for horseshit spoken in a tone you like.
        
           | saiya-jin wrote:
           | There are numerous problems with approach you mention, ie
           | strong push for emotions to sway opinion. If one resorts to
           | attacking primitive emotions, hard facts clearly are not most
           | important in the discussion anymore. In proper science, that
           | should never be the case.
        
           | SubiculumCode wrote:
           | Judging a book by its cover is actually not the worst
           | strategy for picking a book. And I WAS responding to the
           | content; content like accusing scientists of lying, content
           | like silly photos designed to get you to click.
           | 
           | edit: To sum in Bayesian terms, the prior probability of
           | reading a good book is greater if the publisher had sunk
           | money into a high quality cover, because they believe in its
           | content, while a trashy cover might be the only thing a trash
           | book could obtain. Likewise, the prior probability of
           | bullshit is greater if the tone is shrill, accusatory, and
           | exaggerated, while the prior probability of quality content
           | is greater if the scientific commentary is academic, serious,
           | and professional.
        
             | stevenhuang wrote:
             | Bayesian reasoning has its limits. If one is lazy and don't
             | think to reconsider when warranted, it's often accidentally
             | used as a crutch. Works in most cases I grant you that,
             | just user beware.
             | 
             | > "The man who has fed the chicken every day throughout its
             | life at last wrings its neck instead, showing that more
             | refined views as to the uniformity of nature would have
             | been useful to the chicken" - Bertrand Russel
        
               | cwillu wrote:
               | https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/heuristics-that-
               | almost...
        
               | stevenhuang wrote:
               | I liked that article very much when it was shared,
               | perhaps time for a rereading! Cheers.
        
           | cwillu wrote:
           | I will tolerate an abrasive tone in an emotionally charged
           | discussion where people's lives are affected. I will do so
           | carefully, because it's incredibly easy to be mislead by
           | emotional content, but I will put in the effort, because
           | important viewpoints can't be usefully distinguished from
           | manipulation by their tone in those arenas.
           | 
           | Physics is not one of those arenas. I am not even remotely
           | worried that selecting explorations of QM interpretations
           | based on tone might result in giving me a skewed perception
           | of the topic due to my ignoring the views of those being
           | harmed by them.
        
         | ravi-delia wrote:
         | Speaking as someone who works with people on the math side of
         | things, the author is a contrarian but not super far outside
         | the norm. This is far from a "tabloid", this is real criticism
         | from within the field. The tone is abrasive, but every
         | technical field has people like that. I definitely dislike the
         | layman audience she has built up, since just reading criticism
         | without understanding what's being criticized is a recipe for
         | truly stupid takes, but all of these are opinions plenty of
         | people support, even in particle physics.
        
       | joseluis wrote:
       | I really think this paper should be more widely known, because
       | it's eye opening: https://physicsdetective.com/something-is-
       | rotten-in-the-stat...
       | 
       | It made me realize QED is the equivalent of a million lines
       | spaghetti codebase that's been continually built upon, fudge
       | after fudge since the 40s, while being sold as the best thing
       | ever, the ultimate model of reality, etc. While it really started
       | as a temporary solution like a bash script that should've been
       | replaced by something more elegant... many decades ago. And now
       | we are in this mess.
        
         | joshcryer wrote:
         | That paper unfairly jabs at "Schwinger's numerology" because he
         | chose the fine-structure constant in the equation (probably a
         | guess, because he never published the theory behind it). It
         | turns out the magnetic moment of the electron is one of the if
         | not the most accurately measured thing in all of physics, and
         | it fits _perfectly_ with it. So the basis of the entire
         | article, that the g-factor  "was obtained using illegitimate
         | mathematical traps" is just misleading.
         | 
         | You have to do the experiment to get the number, if the number
         | doesn't fit with the experiment you have to figure out how to
         | arrange the equation to fit with the experiment. I find this
         | truly the basis for scientific progress. Even if we don't
         | understand yet why it works the way it does. Why is the fine-
         | structure constant everywhere in physics? It's not a hack it's
         | experimentally derivable and has been reproduced over and over
         | again.
         | 
         | I don't see anything inherently wrong with what those
         | scientists "did" with their fudging and playing with numbers.
         | Experimentalists are not infallible. That's why we need
         | reproduction and for others to think up other experiments and
         | to do them. That's what science is about. Nice history paper
         | though.
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | Newton didn't predict the exact constant of acceleration, he
         | predicted the form of the equation and experiment fills in the
         | rest. There is no conspiracy of "fitting the equations", that's
         | the whole point of experimental physics.
        
         | davrosthedalek wrote:
         | Oh wow, that's quite a crackpot-y web page.
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | Every physicist knows about renormalization. It's not a secret.
         | 
         | An "independent researcher" might consider that a discovery,
         | but you could learn a lot more just by picking up any textbook.
         | 
         | It's not "rotten". It's an open research question. One that
         | every physicist already knew about.
        
         | spekcular wrote:
         | The person who wrote that paper doesn't understand the basics
         | of the field that he's talking about.
         | 
         | For example (from the blog post): "Consa gives an analogy
         | wherein Indian mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan has claimed
         | that the sum of all positive integers is not infinite, but is
         | instead -1/12. It's wrong, it's absurd, but renormalization has
         | now been accepted, and is even sold as a virtue."
         | 
         | One when performs zeta function regularization, one gets -1/12.
         | This isn't some mystery; it's a perfectly reasonable thing to
         | do. Analytic continuation has been understood since the 1800s.
         | 
         | Reference:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeta_function_regularization
         | 
         | Edit: I read more of the linked paper. The claim that Karplus
         | and Kroll committed "fraud" is basically libel, as can be seen
         | by reading the complete account. The worst one can say is that
         | people didn't publish full details of calculations due to page
         | limitations or laziness, but this is hardly a special feature
         | of QED. For instance, Onsager famously solved the 2-d Ising
         | model exactly in 1944 but never provided details in print, just
         | the final solution.
        
           | semi-extrinsic wrote:
           | Onsager was a bastard with omitting details. He has a 1949
           | paper on packing of hard rods (and other anisometric
           | particles), which is 4 pages long, but a colleague who went
           | through the details of the derivation spent half a year and
           | filled a ring binder with intermediate calculations.
        
             | sva_ wrote:
             | I wonder if this is a consequence of people demanding more
             | "rigor" nowadays?
        
               | stjohnswarts wrote:
               | Well with electronic form it is now quite trivial to
               | include the derivation, so no real reason not to publish
               | it or at least a detail set of steps so demanding more
               | rigor seems fair.
        
             | spekcular wrote:
             | Damn.
             | 
             | I never actually learned this stuff. Is there a good
             | textbook account of this isotropic-to-nematic transition
             | that includes full details? Or is there still a gaping hole
             | in the published literature?
             | 
             | In other words, did your colleague do this as a kind of
             | history project, or because the details weren't available
             | anywhere else?
        
               | semi-extrinsic wrote:
               | I don't think there are textbooks on this stuff, it is
               | too much of a niche, you probably need to read journal
               | papers. A place to start might be the classic "What is
               | liquid?" review paper by Barker and Henderson:
               | 
               | https://link.aps.org/pdf/10.1103/RevModPhys.48.587?casa_t
               | oke...
               | 
               | ... and then the classic review paper on liquid crystals
               | by Stephen and Straley:
               | 
               | https://link.aps.org/pdf/10.1103/RevModPhys.46.617?casa_t
               | oke...
               | 
               | But I believe the "gaping hole" as you call it has been
               | mostly filled by the recent work. You probably still need
               | to spend some weeks to follow along though.
               | 
               | The motivation for my colleague was to develop the
               | Onsager theory further, since Onsager only went to the
               | second virial coefficient. They were able to go to
               | higher-body contributions and get nice algebraic results
               | for the equation of state, IIRC. I can probably dig up
               | the DOI if you want to read it.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | Yes, I'd love to read it, if you have time to find the
               | DOI. Thanks!
        
       | Mo3 wrote:
       | > but to borrow a German idiom, don't eat the headlines as hot as
       | they're cooked.
       | 
       | I'm German and I have never heard this before, but I like it.
        
         | jhgb wrote:
         | It's definitely a Czech idiom - "nic se neji tak horke, jak se
         | to uvari". But apparently German has this, too:
         | https://de.wiktionary.org/wiki/es_wird_nichts_so_hei%C3%9F_g...
        
           | Mo3 wrote:
           | That reminds me, I saw something similar on this Ukrainian
           | music video about Bayraktar drones too.
           | 
           | Timestamp 0:25
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXVu_DeB4wo
        
             | selimthegrim wrote:
             | It appears the Russians are getting their soup warmed even
             | hotter than the cooking temperature.
        
         | treeman79 wrote:
         | Is that like the German Christmas Pickle tradition that no
         | Germans have heard of?
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/Sb0qu_RjQ6I
        
           | Mo3 wrote:
           | That was excruciating.
           | 
           | Just like the "Oktoberfests" that take place in America. It's
           | a shit-show.
        
             | davrosthedalek wrote:
             | They also tend to be in the wrong month.
        
               | Mo3 wrote:
               | Depends, when are they? The real Oktoberfest starts mid
               | September. (Don't ask.)
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | Well, they often start in October instead of ending just
               | at the start of it.
        
         | Aaargh20318 wrote:
         | Dutch has something similar: " de soep wordt nooit zo heet
         | gegeten, als zij wordt opgediend" (The soup is never eaten as
         | hot as it was served).
        
         | kalimanzaro wrote:
         | "the headlines never get as hot on the plate as they did in the
         | pan."
         | 
         | --English speaker trying to make sense of it
        
         | mikub wrote:
         | I think it's reffering to "Nichts wird so heiss gegessen wie es
         | gekocht wird", which translates to "Nothing get's eaten as hot
         | as it get's cooked.".
        
           | Mo3 wrote:
           | Ahhhh, that. I only ever heard it being used in relation to
           | imagining bad future events that turn out far better than
           | expected.
        
             | samstave wrote:
             | German is an interesting tongue...
             | 
             | Einsturzende Neubauten - the band, but the word means "a
             | new building thats always in disrepair" (or so I was told)
        
               | Mo3 wrote:
               | Nah, it means "collapsing newly constructed buildings",
               | lol.
               | 
               | Einsturzend = collapsing
               | 
               | Neubauten = made of "Neu"=new and "bauten"=buildings
        
           | LegitShady wrote:
           | Except overnight oats
        
           | qsi wrote:
           | Similarly in Dutch, de soep wordt niet zo heet gegeten als ze
           | wordt opgediend. In this case it's soup that's not eaten as
           | hot as it is served.
        
             | ethbr0 wrote:
             | Is soup popular in Dutch cuisine? Honestly asking.
             | Etymologies of aphorisms (especially multiple cultural
             | ones) fascinate me.
        
               | dtech wrote:
               | Not particularly popular, especially nowadays. "Snert", a
               | thick pea soup with pork, is a classic winter dish
               | though.
        
               | galgalesh wrote:
               | In Dutch-speaking Belgium, soup used to be a staple of
               | our diet. Every meal started with soup when I was young.
        
               | Mo3 wrote:
               | Een Nederlander zegt tegen zijn vrouw: "Johanna, giet een
               | liter water bij de soep, we hebben gasten!"
               | 
               | (I'm German, but I live in the Netherlands. I absolutely
               | love these jokes between you)
        
       | mellosouls wrote:
       | Other recent discussions on the subject fwiw:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30955033
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30977931
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | I dunno why this blog keeps be voted to the top. Yeah, current
       | physics research is lacking in some areas .since when was it
       | perfect?
        
         | stjohnswarts wrote:
         | Because she does a great job breaking it down for us mere
         | mortals who only know basic calculus and linear algebra. I
         | think it's great, and I like seeing stuff. I always take it
         | with a bit of "this is one physicist's opinion" though.
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | Because Sabine is has the bona fides to know her stuff but also
         | a contrarian and a bit of an outcast, and she knows how to
         | market herself. All of this combined is perfect for hackernews.
        
           | SiempreViernes wrote:
           | Yeah, it's weird how she transitioned from being a fairly
           | normal popsci blogger into being a sort of lubos light.
        
             | mhh__ wrote:
             | Populism is like gravity, to paraphrase the Joker in the
             | dark Knight.
        
               | FollowingTheDao wrote:
               | Yes, she is the Trump of Science. And I do not say that
               | be be demeaning of either. While I do not care for Trump,
               | he knows what he is doing when it comes to showmanship,
               | and so does she.
        
               | LordDragonfang wrote:
               | This comparison strikes me as much more unfavorable than
               | you admit, because while Trump is categorically not an
               | expert on what he purports to be (running a successful
               | business) Sabine _is_ clearly an expert in her field.
        
               | stjohnswarts wrote:
               | Yeah while not on the same order of magnitude it's like
               | "You're a great orator, I mean your technique has a lot
               | in common with Hitler's talents as an orator"
        
               | FollowingTheDao wrote:
               | Trump is successful with media, not his businesses.
        
               | stjohnswarts wrote:
               | Really all he's managed to do is hang on to the money his
               | father left him. He is good at hiring lawyers &
               | accountants that can put a wall between his personal
               | fortune and corporate business that inevitably go
               | bankrupt.
        
               | paulpauper wrote:
               | tbh, business success and understanding is much more
               | subjective than physics understanding.
        
             | spaetzleesser wrote:
             | I think too much activity on social media does this to
             | people.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | spaetzleesser wrote:
           | It seems publishing a lot on YouTube or Twitter is often very
           | unhealthy for people. Over time it seems they all get sucked
           | into the conflict machine that attracts viewers but is
           | ultimately useless.
           | 
           | I watched that with Sam Harris. He seemed to have interesting
           | ideas but now he seems just to be good at debating. Same for
           | Jordan Peterson.
        
         | robonerd wrote:
         | The author has a popular (and imho pretty good) youtube
         | channel.
        
           | qsdf38100 wrote:
           | I liked her content at first but now I'm tired of the way she
           | implies that "scientists" are lying to us, stealing our
           | money, and that she is here to reveal some truths that are
           | kept hidden from us. After watching any of her video, I don't
           | feel like I've gained any insights, except that I shouldn't
           | trust "science".
        
             | DangitBobby wrote:
             | Can you point to any examples where she show distrust of
             | science that was misguided? I felt her video about
             | misleading PR for fusion was very eye opening.
        
       | simulate-me wrote:
       | I feel like this was too much a diatribe on why supersymmetry is
       | not a good solution and didn't spend enough time on evaluating
       | what the actual implications are of this result holding.
        
         | gus_massa wrote:
         | The problem is that (if confirmed) no one has any clue about
         | how to fix the Standard Model to fix this. It will be a small
         | fix, not a total rewrite like other alarmist articles claim.
         | Anyway, no one know how exactly will be the fix.
         | 
         | So each one propose her/his own pet theory. Supersymmetry? A
         | second Higgs boson? Other ...????
         | 
         | She doesn't like supersymmetry, and rants too much about the
         | people that guess the fix will use supersymmetry.
         | 
         | (I like supersymmetry, but this is not my research area, so she
         | knows much more about this than me about this.)
        
         | mannykannot wrote:
         | On the one hand, it does not strike me as unreasonable to point
         | out that experience suggests that this, too, will turn out to
         | be an experimental or methodological error.
         | 
         | Nor do I think it is unreasonable to point out that this
         | result, if correct, would not validate supersymmetry (if that
         | is, in fact, the case.)
         | 
         | On the other hand, the fact that supersymmetry isn't a theory,
         | but a property of a class of models that can be tweaked to fit
         | a broad range of experimental results (again, if that is, in
         | fact, the case) does not rule out the possibility that the LHC
         | could have found evidence that strongly supported one specific
         | theory that happens to be supersymmetric. Hossenfelder seems to
         | be saying that the LHC definitively ruled out what was
         | considered to be the most plausible candidate(s), which would
         | imply there was at least one such falsifiable theory.
         | Allegations of incompetence or mendacity should not be made
         | lightly, and unless the promoters of the LHC routinely said
         | supersymmetry in general might be disproved, the allegations
         | seem unwarranted.
        
           | lisper wrote:
           | Falsifying supersymmetry is like falsifying Ptolemaic
           | epicycles. You can never falsify it with data because
           | epicycles can always be constructed to fit any data set [1].
           | Likewise, a sypersymmetric theory can be constructed to fit
           | any set of parameters. But fitting the data is not enough.
           | You have to fit the data with substantially fewer parameters
           | than data points. That's the challenge.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS4H6PEcCCA
        
             | ravi-delia wrote:
             | I feel like that example assumes the conclusion. A better
             | analogy would be "spinning objects theories". It's a
             | category so broad you could always find _something_ which
             | works, but since it 's not really thought of as a
             | particular solution, it isn't so vulnerable to overfitting.
             | Epicycles were bad largely because they gave a false
             | impression of closing in on reality; every new round of
             | additions consisted of smaller and smaller tweaks. Spinning
             | object theories are even more broad and adaptable, but
             | since they aren't basically one solution you don't have the
             | same issue. When Kepler found a spinning object theory
             | which worked, it wasn't overfitting.
        
             | mannykannot wrote:
             | Indeed. Are you suggesting, perhaps, that the promoters of
             | the LHC were making claims that they knew could not be
             | satisfied by it - or, perhaps, that nothing they said could
             | reasonably be interpreted as such a claim? The trouble is,
             | I don't know which specific claims Hossenfelder is basing
             | her allegations on.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | She explains that here
               | 
               | http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2018/03/the-multiworse-
               | is-c...
               | 
               | Quote:
               | 
               |  _Before the LHC's launch in 2008, many theorists
               | expressed themselves confident the collider would produce
               | new particles besides the Higgs boson. That hasn't
               | happened. And the public isn't remotely as dumb as many
               | academics wish. They'll remember next time we come ask
               | for money.
               | 
               | The big proclamations came almost exclusively from
               | theoretical physicists; CERN didn't promise anything they
               | didn't deliver. That is an important distinction, but I
               | am afraid in the public perception the subtler
               | differences won't matter. It's "physicists said." And
               | what physicists said was wrong. Like hair, trust is hard
               | to split. And like hair, trust is easier to lose than to
               | grow.
               | 
               | What the particle physicists got wrong was an argument
               | based on a mathematical criterion called "naturalness".
               | If the laws of nature were "natural" according to this
               | definition, then the LHC should have seen something
               | besides the Higgs. The data analysis isn't yet completed,
               | but at this point it seems unlikely something more than
               | statistical anomalies will show up.
               | 
               | I must have sat through hundreds of seminars in which
               | naturalness arguments were repeated. Let me just flash
               | you a representative slide from a 2007 talk by
               | Michelangelo L. Mangano (full pdf here), so you get the
               | idea. The punchline is at the very top: "new particles
               | must appear" in an energy range of about a TeV (ie
               | accessible at the LHC) "to avoid finetuning."
               | 
               | I don't mean to pick on Mangano in particular; his slides
               | are just the first example that Google brought up. This
               | was the argument why the LHC should see something new: To
               | avoid finetuning and to preserve naturalness.
               | 
               | I explained many times previously why the conclusions
               | based on naturalness were not predictions, but merely
               | pleas for the laws of nature to be pretty. Luckily I no
               | longer have to repeat these warnings, because the data
               | agree that naturalness isn't a good argument._
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | Thanks for this information. I agree with Dr.
               | Hossenfelder about naturalness, but personally, I don't
               | think that (or anything else here) justifies saying,
               | about those who promoted the LHC with their expectations,
               | that they were "either incompetent or lying or both."
               | Irresponsible? maybe, depending on how influential their
               | position was and how forcefully they made the claim.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | Well this is kind of funny and I mostly agree so TLDR:
       | 
       | > "I'm afraid all of this sounds rather negative. Well. There's a
       | reason I left particle physics. Particle physics has degenerated
       | into a paper production enterprise that is of virtually no
       | relevance for societal progress or for progress in any other
       | discipline of science. The only reason we still hear so much
       | about it is that a lot of funding goes into it and so a lot of
       | people still work on it, most of them don't like me. But the
       | disciplines where the foundations of physics currently make
       | progress are cosmology and astrophysics, and everything quantum,
       | quantum information, quantum computing, quantum metrology, and so
       | on, which is why that's what I mostly talk about these days."
       | 
       | The popular science literature is also full of string theory this
       | and god particle that, and it's really not very satisfying or
       | illuminating. If people want to get into this general subject,
       | I'd recommend instead Stephen Hawking's compendium of classic
       | papers on quantum physics, with commentary, "The Dreams That
       | Stuff is Made Of."
        
         | gotaquestion wrote:
         | > string theory this and god particle that, and it's really not
         | very satisfying or illuminating
         | 
         | I think what would be interesting would be a study of why
         | researchers are drawn to string theory. I remember reading
         | about it in OMNI magazine as a teen back in the 80's. During my
         | studies at university, I learned about many proposals in
         | physics that failed after people spend decades trying to hammer
         | into reality (like the electrical ether, or planetary motion),
         | only to have a genius show up and resolve the dilemmas with a
         | completely different proposal. Going on its 5th decade, string
         | theory feels like one of these ancient red herrings, but maybe
         | it just needs a few more centuries?
        
         | tambourine_man wrote:
         | Sabine went on full rant/iconoclastic/grudge mode IMO recently.
         | It's a shame, as she a good communicator, but I just see myself
         | skipping her content when it pops up.
         | 
         | "I left the field because it's a paper production machine that
         | adds no value to society" without substantiation is simply a
         | frustration ridden meme.
        
           | ralfn wrote:
           | She wrote a book about this topic.
           | 
           | So the claim that there is no substantiation is false. You
           | just didn't bother to find out.
        
             | elorant wrote:
             | While I don't generally like her tone, I liked her book a
             | lot. It has a lot of stuff for further research, and there
             | are at least a dozen book suggestions in there. On the
             | other hand she attacks the "beautification" of physics'
             | theories without providing any alternative approach
             | whatsoever.
        
             | [deleted]
        
               | bardworx wrote:
               | How is attacking her character contributing to the
               | conversation?
        
             | tambourine_man wrote:
             | Fair enough, I wasn't aware. I'll check it out.
             | 
             | I think you mean this: "Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads
             | Physics Astray"
             | 
             | https://www.amazon.com/Lost-Math-Beauty-Physics-
             | Astray/dp/04...
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1KFTPqc0nQ
             | 
             | I still find the tone off putting, reminds me of the fox
             | and the grapes fable, not sure if it's known to most
             | cultures.
             | 
             | Nevertheless, I'll watch the video and reexamine my
             | opinion.
        
               | ianai wrote:
               | I'm just generally increasingly off put by the internets
               | incessant "quibbling". This seemingly endless
               | juxtaposition of antithesis to follow any thesis. At some
               | point that becomes just more noise, and that can be used
               | by an agenda.
               | 
               | I still found her point valid and interesting and not at
               | all noise. My takeaway is more that new physics might
               | well be out of our energetic grasps until we build some
               | much larger accelerators. Little idea how to convince
               | society of the worth of that expense. Maybe if it can
               | produce useful substances for industrial use. I'd love
               | more knowledge on expansions to the periodic table, for
               | example.
        
               | thechao wrote:
               | The HN-centric term for this is "middlebrow"; a good
               | middlebrow filter is definitely required to navigate HN.
        
               | ianai wrote:
               | Can you elaborate?
        
               | pegasus wrote:
               | Searching HN for it brings up this explanation as the
               | first hit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5072224
        
               | gralx wrote:
               | ya i aint never heard the term b4 neither. colorful.
               | wonder if _middlebrow_ refers to furrowing between teh
               | browz?? >
        
               | edgyquant wrote:
               | I am as well, because the internet isn't designed for
               | people to reach an objective consensus about reality nor
               | does it account for the way humans really engage one
               | another naturally. We need a platform designed to
               | encourage people to reach understanding but anyone,
               | myself included, who wants to do this is looking for a
               | profit motive when some things are more important than
               | profit as much as I hate to say it.
        
               | rad88 wrote:
               | Adding more because I've read her book (not to quibble).
               | I wouldn't say the point is that new physics is out of
               | reach until we build more expensive accelerators. She
               | herself is a theoretical physicist, has theories she'd
               | like to see tested and proposes experiments that could do
               | so. I think she's saying rather that particle physics
               | involves enormous opportunity costs -- decades long /
               | billion dollar experiments -- and that the research
               | agenda is not scientifically justified, but is
               | sociological and even aesthetic in origin.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _fox and the grapes fable, not sure if it 's known to
               | most cultures._
               | 
               | That's one of Aesop's fables. I believe it's widely
               | known, at least in all western cultures. The fox can't
               | reach the grapes he desires, so he concludes the grapes
               | were sour and he didn't want them anyway.
        
               | tambourine_man wrote:
               | That's the one, yes.
        
               | thechao wrote:
               | The idiom "sour grapes" comes from that story!
        
               | cwillu wrote:
               | If it's what I think it is, it's usually (in english at
               | least) succinctly referred to as "Sour grapes"
        
             | matthewdgreen wrote:
             | I've read a few of these articles and they all have
             | basically the same format, which is similar enough that
             | they're not quite as interesting to read. First a headline
             | "does the invention of Swiss Cheese mean that Cheddar
             | Cheese is extinct?" Followed by a little bit of interesting
             | and useful scientific summarization. Then onwards to a
             | point about how we're dealing with lots of theories and not
             | enough empirical data, so the whole field is useless and
             | also not worth spending time on.
             | 
             | I would point out that lots of other important scientific
             | fields have been in this situation before. Maybe there's an
             | interesting argument to the overfunding (but then again,
             | developing theories is also pretty important!). But mostly
             | it just feels like she's made the point and while it's an
             | important point, getting a clear picture of the scientific
             | results is more valuable than this particular opinion. (But
             | I stress, it is her platform to do with as she wants.)
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | >without substantiation
           | 
           | Really? Pretty much every article in this field is some click
           | bait title similar to "did this recent discovery break
           | science?" and is quite tiresome. But a more accurate title
           | like "Results from new experiment are so far out of norm for
           | prior understanding that much more scrutiny is needed"
           | doesn't gain attraction.
        
             | folkrav wrote:
             | I wouldn't describe those pop-science articles as the
             | scientific "papers" I assumed was talked about.
        
           | bawolff wrote:
           | I feel like everytime her name comes up, its always a bunch
           | of comments like "i don't like her tone" or whatever, but
           | never much in way of substantiated disagreement.
           | 
           | I can't help but wonder if she is just speaking uncomfortable
           | truths about things a lot of the hn audience like, where
           | nobody can really come up with a counter per se but there is
           | still a negative gut reaction of i-don't-like-people-
           | challenging-my-world-view so the criticism comes out as, i
           | dont mind your view i just hate the way you say it.
        
             | johnny22 wrote:
             | I can't say I know enough to say she's "challenging my
             | world view" since i don't necessarily know enough about the
             | subject to have a world view.
             | 
             | But I still have a negative reaction to the way she (and
             | others in other fields) does it.
             | 
             | Because whether it's true or not, it doesn't tend to get
             | results in changing how things are done.
        
               | bawolff wrote:
               | > Because whether it's true or not, it doesn't tend to
               | get results in changing how things are done.
               | 
               | But at the same time, several comments on this post are
               | talking about how they think her diatribes will have an
               | undue influence on funding decisions, so i doubt that
               | accounts for all the negativity.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | I do think that her "the mainstream scientists are doing
               | it wrong/lying/wasting money" shtick advances mistrust in
               | science in general. That worries me.
        
         | beezle wrote:
         | There are a lot of other areas of physics, some even involving
         | the use of colliders, that are in better position and value to
         | make discoveries that either advance our understanding and/or
         | have applied/commercial application.
         | 
         | One example is the National Synchrotron Light Source II at
         | Brookhaven. The money spent nationally and globally on these
         | types of facilities are a fraction of what goes to LHC or, not
         | long ago, the Tevatron at Fermilab.
        
           | photochemsyn wrote:
           | Yes, those kind of projects have a lot more uses and deserve
           | more funding and attention. Stanford's Linac Coherent Light
           | Source is another example:
           | 
           | > "The Linac Coherent Light Source at SLAC takes X-ray
           | snapshots of atoms and molecules at work, revealing
           | fundamental processes in materials, technology and living
           | things."
        
         | octonion wrote:
         | Contrarianism should never be confused with intelligence. When
         | someone says "most of them don't like me", you can hear the
         | underlying hisses of "because I am right and they are wrong"
         | and "because I am smart and they are dumb". If most people
         | don't like you, there's a very simple reason for it.
        
           | stubish wrote:
           | She never said 'most people don't like me'. She said 'most
           | [particle physicists] don't like me'. It just means she has
           | touched on a point of contention that particle physicists
           | care a lot about.
        
         | d0mine wrote:
         | This part also stand out to me. It is unfortunate that a
         | science communicator would express her research preference in
         | such a way. It is true there were no breakthrough in ages in
         | the particle physics (standard model works extremely well), it
         | is true "paper production" has disproportionate influence on
         | funding (applicable to academia in general), personally I'm
         | excited about the recent deployment of Webb space telescope
         | (new instruments are often good for scientific progress), and
         | quantum computing is gobbledygook (theoretically there were
         | some exciting algorithms, in practice I expect at best modest
         | but nonetheless important [cryptography] applications--that we
         | could duplicate in less elegant way in a classical way)
         | 
         | but for people unfamiliar with science it may sound like
         | "defund LHC" (that would be unfortunate)
        
           | slibhb wrote:
           | > It is unfortunate that a science communicator would express
           | her research preference in such a way.
           | 
           | Why is it a bad thing to have preferences?
           | 
           | > but for people unfamiliar with science it may sound like
           | "defund LHC" (that would be unfortunate)
           | 
           | She's on the record against building bigger colliders. It
           | follows from her views that we should fund other stuff and
           | not colliders.
        
           | kingkawn wrote:
           | Then the Trisolarans will win without question
        
           | adrian_b wrote:
           | Unfortunately the standard model does not work "extremely
           | well".
           | 
           | Even if we suppose that the standard model is completely
           | correct, it does not allow the computation of the majority of
           | the useful physical quantities.
           | 
           | What is needed is a model that would be able to compute all
           | the physical quantities that are important in practice, e.g.
           | the masses of all hadrons and of all atomic nuclei, also
           | their magnetic moments, the energies of their excited states,
           | the energies of the excited states of the atoms and of the
           | ions, and so on, starting from the properties of the
           | elementary particles and of their interactions.
           | 
           | Despite the huge progresses which have happened in
           | experimental physics, we are now no closer of having a useful
           | theory able to compute what we need _ab initio_ , than we
           | were exactly one hundred years ago, before the most
           | influential work in quantum physics was published by de
           | Broglie, Schroedinger, Heisenberg, Dirac, Born et al (from
           | the point of view of the computable values, the Dirac theory
           | of the hydrogen atom was only a minor improvement over what
           | could be done using the Wilson-Sommerfeld quantization
           | condition from 1915 and the more complex systems remained
           | uncomputable; the quantum field theory improved a little the
           | precision of some previously computable values, but only very
           | few other additional quantities became computable _ab initio_
           | ).
           | 
           | All the useful applied physics, e.g. the theory of the
           | semiconductor devices, or theory of the lasers, and any other
           | theory used to design real devices, do not have any use for
           | the standard model, but they use various empirical
           | mathematical models, which contain lots of parameters that
           | are determined experimentally, in order to match the
           | predictions of those models with the experiments.
        
             | selimthegrim wrote:
             | Would you be complaining about Copernicus not adding
             | anything to equants and epicycles if you lived then?
        
               | adrian_b wrote:
               | While another poster rightly pointed that Copernicus
               | still used epicycles, you are correct in implying that
               | the greatest contribution of the theories created after
               | 1920, e.g. quantum mechanics, quantum field theory,
               | chromodynamics etc. has been in the enhancement of our
               | _qualitative_ understanding of the physics of the
               | elementary particles and of their interactions.
               | 
               | This _qualitative_ understanding has been very helpful as
               | a guidance in the development of various approximate
               | methods used for the modeling of the systems that are too
               | complex to be computable _ab initio_ , e.g. atomic
               | nuclei, atoms with many electrons, molecules,
               | semiconductors, superconductors and so on.
               | 
               | Nevertheless, while the _qualitative_ understanding was
               | improved by the more recent theories, they remain useless
               | for obtaining _quantitative_ results.
               | 
               | All physical systems that are interesting are too complex
               | to be computable _ab initio_ , so in order to predict
               | anything about them, wild approximations must be used,
               | which are different for every physical system. There are
               | no universal rules about how to develop such
               | approximations.
               | 
               | If an approximation method is found, which after
               | measuring experimentally the values of various parameters
               | allows a model to predict other experiments with
               | sufficient precision, then good. If not, there is no way
               | to know if some other acceptable method can be found, and
               | how to search for it.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | Copernican heliocentrism still used epicycles, so fans of
               | those would not have been completely disappointed.
        
             | evanb wrote:
             | I think your comment is far behind the times. Directly from
             | QCD we have: computed the low-lying parts of hadronic
             | spectrum, computed the proton-neutron mass splitting, made
             | _pre_dictions about hadronic masses that were then found at
             | the LHC, computed the nucleon axial coupling g_A, vacuum
             | polarization and light-by-light, and so on. It requires
             | supercomputers. But so what? Nobody promised that physics
             | should be easy.
             | 
             | We know how to match our effective field theory of protons
             | and neutrons in nuclei to QCD observables. This project has
             | been under way for 20 years. Expect major breakthroughs as
             | the exascale machines mature. If we match our EFTs to QCD
             | calculations then there would be no additional parameters
             | fit to data, and our intellectual edifice will have
             | quantitative predictivity from fundamental particles to
             | neutron stars. It's hard. Nobody promised that physics
             | should be easy.
        
           | katmannthree wrote:
           | > It is unfortunate that a science communicator would express
           | her research preference in such a way.
           | 
           | It is disappointing, and more unfortunately pretty much her
           | personal brand now. There are, as she seems to have
           | discovered, a lot of eyeballs to be had when you bash things
           | that are poorly understood and already looked down upon for
           | it.
           | 
           | She's a fine physicist and her points have merit, but she's
           | smart enough to be perfectly aware that rather than improving
           | the field through discussions with peers what she's doing
           | here is just capitalizing on that distaste people have for
           | their work and doing what she can to undermine them.
        
             | rout39574 wrote:
             | I think her perspective is quite a bit more productive than
             | just capitalizing on distaste. For example, in this
             | discussion she's making concrete criticisms of specific
             | communications patterns.
             | 
             | I don't think it's too strong to call it "disinformation"
             | out of the journals. They claimed that the next big toy
             | will prove or disprove supersymmetry. They never
             | acknowledged that their claim had been incorrect, or that
             | it was misleading.
             | 
             | Calling out that repeated pattern is, I think, on the
             | respectful side of the public gadfly playbook.
             | 
             | I think she wants to "improve the field" by incenting
             | theoretical advances that actually lead to testable
             | predictions. Unfortunately, that transition will put a lot
             | of e.g. string theorists out of work.
        
               | SiempreViernes wrote:
               | Not really, in the sense that Hossenfelder only advocated
               | for subtracting resources from particle physics, never
               | about what should be funded instead.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _never about what should be funded instead._
               | 
               | This isn't entirely true. In this blog post
               | (http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2019/04/does-world-
               | need-lar...) she recommends:
               | 
               | > _" One of the key motivations for building a larger
               | particle collider that particle physicists like to bring
               | up is that we still do not know what dark matter is made
               | of. But we are not even sure that dark matter is made of
               | particles. And if it's a particle, we do not know what
               | mass it has or how it interacts. If it's a light
               | particle, you would not look for it with a bigger
               | collider. So really it makes more sense to collect more
               | information about the astrophysical situation first. That
               | means concretely better telescopes, better sky coverage,
               | better redshift resolution, better frequency coverage,
               | and so on."_
               | 
               | Though she goes on to say
               | 
               | > _" But really my intention here is not to advocate a
               | particular alternative. I merely think that physicists
               | should have an honest debate about the evident lack of
               | progress in the foundations of physics and what to do
               | about it."_
        
               | SiempreViernes wrote:
               | > better telescopes, better sky coverage, better redshift
               | resolution, better frequency coverage
               | 
               | And all of this is being built currently or already
               | exists (ELT, ASSN, Vera Rubin, SKA, CTA), so it's not
               | clear what she's advocating.
        
             | brabel wrote:
             | > doing what she can to undermine them.
             | 
             | She's not trying to undermine anyone, just giving her
             | opinion about where funding should go in order to actually
             | advance our knowledge of the world.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | She definitely tried to undermine LIGO. This is a very
               | carefully written article designed to cast shade:
               | http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2019/09/whats-up-with-
               | ligo....
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Characterizing all (or even just the most dismissive)
               | criticisms as attacks or devious attempts to undermine
               | keeps nice people from being truthful.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | I'm not sure what that means, but she definitely was
               | outright wrong on that one, and she used all her skills
               | to make what looked like a convincing argument for "there
               | just isn't enough data there to conclude gravity waves".
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | I don't think the contention here is whether she's right
               | or wrong. Phrasing like _' undermine'_ and _' cast
               | shade'_ seems to imply malicious intent, which is going
               | too far. Being wrong isn't the same as being wrong with
               | malicious intent.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | The fact that she chooses to bring forward here doubts
               | via youtube, books, and blogs (i.e. the things she earns
               | money with) instead of/in addition to a well written
               | paper on arxiv (i.e. like everyone else who wants to
               | partake in a honest physics discussion*) lets me question
               | her intent. (She has papers to some of the things she
               | complains about, which normally get answered by
               | rebuttals. This is normal scientific discourse. A blog
               | with locked comments is not.)
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | Maybe she's in it for the fame and money, but I don't
               | think that would make her intentions malicious.
        
               | pa7x1 wrote:
               | She abuses an information asymmetry and social
               | conventions. Scientific discourse is usually conducted in
               | academic papers, for better or worse this is how the
               | community conducts itself. When she criticizes others
               | work or the usefulness of the fields outside this channel
               | she is addressing as a singular voice the general public.
               | Which gives her voice an outsized presence with a public
               | that is not prepared to engage on equal terms on that
               | discourse or prepare any rebuttal. Meanwhile the rest of
               | the physics community looks dumbfounded because she is
               | escaping the typical means of discourse and ratting them
               | out to the general public, that can't really make an
               | informed judgement.
               | 
               | Either she is socially clueless on how this can be seen
               | negatively by the rest of the scientific community or she
               | is malicious in her attempts to defund parts of science
               | she believes shouldn't get funding.
        
             | photochemsyn wrote:
             | There is a limited pool of resources available to do basic
             | fundamental science and it's fair to argue that things like
             | LHC have absorbed a disproportionate share of these scare
             | resources, without a whole lot to show for it. Since it's
             | the general public that ultimately funds these projects
             | (unless the LHC can attract its own Jeff Bezos), I think it
             | is OK to have a public discussion about it.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | Is it fair to argue that though? What's the metric for
               | that? $ per Nobel prize? If you look at $ per scientist,
               | LHC is actually quite cheap. $ per "theory tested", LHCb
               | has disproved so many theory papers it's not even funny.
               | 
               | If you compare how much money is spend on fundamental
               | research (or research in general), the pool of funds for
               | a given direction is not limited because of other
               | research. It's limited by all the other things we spend
               | money on. If society wants to fund more DM, astro,
               | whatever research, it would be much easier to find that
               | money for example in the military spending. A minimal
               | haircut there and you could double the research funding.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | > LHC have absorbed a disproportionate share of these
               | scare resources
               | 
               | As opposed to? This sentiment was bandied around _a lot_
               | before the LHC went online, but no one ever had a
               | proposition of what the alternative was is the goal was
               | to advance fundamental particle physics. You 've got
               | exactly 2 ways to probe subatomic interactions: (1)
               | particle accelerator measurement and (2) incidental
               | measurements of high-energy spaceborne collisions.
               | 
               | We're doing both. Theoreticians being unable to
               | conclusively find a new measurement is a problem
               | independent of the fact the LHC exists _to do those sorts
               | of measurements that they 'd need_.
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | Proton decay experiments? Magnetic monopole searches?
               | 
               | Providing better bounds on the (non-)existence of
               | phenomena predicted by existing non-Standard Model
               | particle physics theories sounds like a worthwhile
               | endeavor rather than praying that particle accelerators
               | will maybe uncover a particle if you give it just a
               | little bit more juice.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | What's the difference to new particles predicted by BSM
               | theories you might uncover if you give it just a little
               | bit more juice? Especially if you measure a ton of other
               | things at the same time?
        
               | patrick451 wrote:
               | As opposed to funding things that are not particle
               | physics at all. As far as I can tell, knowing that bosons
               | exist has had approximately zero impact on our ability to
               | engineer new stuff. Personally, I'm tired of footing the
               | bill for a field that requires the one of the largest,
               | most expensive experimental systems ever conceived yet
               | seems unable to produce more than useless factoids.
        
               | JackFr wrote:
               | Maybe the physicists are looking for their car keys under
               | the streetlight. Unable to find, them the only solution
               | they can conceive of is a bigger streetlight.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | Which might be the right approach in a world without
               | torches?
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _no one ever had a proposition of what the alternative
               | was is the goal was to advance fundamental particle
               | physics. You 've got exactly 2 ways to probe subatomic
               | interactions: (1) particle accelerator measurement and
               | (2) incidental measurements of high-energy spaceborne
               | collisions._
               | 
               | Sabine has recommended funding more telescopes to learn
               | more about dark matter.
        
               | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
               | As opposed to open season on new theory - or even new
               | kinds of theory.
               | 
               | The Standard Model is a bit of a franken-theory of a
               | thing, a kit of parts bolted together in awkward ways. It
               | looks a lot like the pre-quantum ad-hoc theories that
               | attempted to describe quantum effects before QM was
               | invented.
               | 
               | It's hard to believe that physics can't do better. But
               | easy to believe that physics won't do better while most
               | of the money and all of the mental space is owned by
               | concepts that are more than a hundred years old now.
        
               | gizmo686 wrote:
               | That sounds like you are complaining about the amount of
               | investment in experimental physics in general, rather
               | than the LHC in particular. It is true that fundamental
               | physics could use a major breakthrough from the
               | theorists. However, the theorists we do have are
               | desperate for more experimental evidence to help them.
               | 
               | Add to that that experimental physics is simply far more
               | expensive then theoretical physics, and it should come as
               | no surprise that we spend more money on experiments then
               | pure theory.
               | 
               | The complaint about LHC is more about questioning weather
               | spending $5 billion to smash protons together is the most
               | effective way of getting more empirical evidence to the
               | physicists.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | "Not a whole lot to show" from the LHC? We got the Higgs
               | Boson, and piles of data providing more accurate
               | measurements of fundamental constants in the Standard
               | Model, along with a ton of progress in various "applied"
               | areas related to developing the materials/tools for
               | constructing the thing.
        
         | bigbillheck wrote:
         | > But the disciplines where the foundations of physics
         | currently make progress are cosmology and astrophysics, and
         | everything quantum, quantum information, quantum computing,
         | quantum metrology, and so on
         | 
         | Everybody ignores the condensed matter people!
        
         | DrBazza wrote:
         | Another reason many leave is that new ideas don't get funding.
         | So physics, in particular becomes a monoculture. There is
         | always merit in bad ideas even if the only conclusion is that
         | it was wrong.
        
         | robonerd wrote:
         | > _" Particle physics has degenerated into a paper production
         | enterprise that is of virtually no relevance for societal
         | progress [...] But the disciplines where the foundations of
         | physics currently make progress are cosmology and astrophysics
         | [...]"_
         | 
         | Can anybody explain the relevance of cosmology and astrophysics
         | to societal progress? I'm sure these are very worthwhile fields
         | of study in other respects.. but societal progress?
        
           | noobermin wrote:
           | Cosmology and astro fundamentally can be tested. The models
           | therein have implications on things like the Cosmic Microwave
           | Background, so it fits "societal progress" in the sense it
           | pushes humanity's knowledge of the universe forward.
           | 
           | I do think particle theory probably does push knowledge
           | forward, the problem is it is quite a bit further from
           | something that can be tested, it is more akin to mathematics
           | these days where they're not really trying to describe
           | reality because as she says, susy and friends could be
           | morphed to fit anything. In fact, and this might be a
           | stretch, but I feel like there is a motivation not to have
           | predictions sometimes because then you could be proven wrong.
           | Perhaps this is still "pushing knowledge in general forward"
           | as opposed to knowledge that actually describes reality,
           | similar to mathematics perhaps.
           | 
           | Not really related to societal progress, but the difference
           | between particle theory with mathematics is mathematicians
           | are actually rigorous while particle physicists get by with
           | the usual lack of rigor (relatively) of physics in general.
           | The argument usually employed by theorists in other physics
           | fields is that this lack of rigor is okay because physics is
           | science and you could always do an experiment afterwards to
           | validate theory. Particle physics less and less has that, so,
           | where does it sit? I feel like may be a valid path forward is
           | for particle physicists to embrace that they are no longer
           | really doing science and are rather doing mathematics, and
           | probably to even adopt some of the rigor of mathematics, then
           | particle theory could really bloom into a really valuable
           | field of study on the "pushing general knowledge forward"
           | side of things.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | Well, Newton's laws of motion are a direct result of
           | cosmology/astrophysics.
        
           | SiempreViernes wrote:
           | Have you heard how the military makes a lot of technology
           | that benefits society? Well, it's the same principle for
           | esoteric experimental science: unique requirements leads to
           | new tech being developed and then you can turn around, and if
           | you find some use for some bit of the new tech you can tout
           | it as a "boon to society".
        
             | TomSwirly wrote:
             | > Have you heard how the military makes a lot of technology
             | that benefits society?
             | 
             | No, not since World War 2. Examples?
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | ARPANET and GPS come to mind. Both were developed with
               | large military impetus.
        
             | tshaddox wrote:
             | > Have you heard how the military makes a lot of technology
             | that benefits society?
             | 
             | I've heard that, yes, as well as NASA inventing velcro and
             | zippers and teflon, and all of it has a faint tinge of "not
             | actually true at all" to it.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | dwaltrip wrote:
               | You don't see how NASA has pushed technology and science
               | forward? The inspiration it provides for people becoming
               | engineers and scientists is alone probably worth a non-
               | trivial fraction of the US GDP.
        
             | robonerd wrote:
             | Couldn't the same be said for particle physics? The
             | accelerators and detectors seem very high tech.
        
               | spaetzleesser wrote:
               | The LHC computing infrastructure is also quite
               | impressive.
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | And CERN is literally the reason we're here on th Web
               | right now.
        
               | moonchrome wrote:
               | That's a huge stretch. CERN might be a reason we have the
               | web that looks like it looks today, but we would have
               | something similar with or without CERN.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | We might be stuck with compuserve and AOL.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | We had the internet before the web, and we had gopher. So
               | we had an open network, the client server model and
               | links. What the web brought was a more flexible protocol
               | and document format. That was important, but there's no
               | way we'd have been stuck with compuserve or AOL.
        
               | SiempreViernes wrote:
               | Do you remember the time when messenger services were
               | open to third party clients? You could actually talk to
               | all your friends using only one app!
               | 
               | Those days have _ended_.
        
               | Barrin92 wrote:
               | there's a lot of learning potential in building one or
               | two but after that you're pretty much just making them
               | bigger. There's a lot of engineering and construction
               | involved but the new ones are really just very expensive
               | and huge without netting necessarily much in terms of
               | engineering science. In particular if you consider
               | opportunity costs. With the 23 billion(!) it costs to
               | build the new Large Hadron collider you could fund
               | 230.000 100k grants to young scientists. That's enough
               | money to fund entire disciplines.
               | 
               | And that's important to keep in mind because money is a
               | limited resource and what's relevant is where that money
               | didn't go rather than just speaking idealistically about
               | the potential benefits of a megaproject.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | "There's a lot of engineering and construction involved
               | but the new ones are really just very expensive and huge
               | without netting necessarily much in terms of engineering
               | science."
               | 
               | This is extremely false. The new engineering science
               | required to make the incredibly strong magnets for each
               | collider (newer colliders requiring stronger magnets) is
               | one obvious counterexample.
        
               | davrosthedalek wrote:
               | The world spends about 2 Trillion dollars on military per
               | year. 23 billion over, say, 10 years as a lower bound, is
               | a per mille of that. NASA has a _yearly_ budget of 20
               | billion, ~1 /3 of which goes into science.
               | 
               | (BTW, with 100k, in experimental physics, you can't even
               | pay for a postdoc at an US institution for a year)
               | 
               | That shouldn't mean NASA should get less money. But 23
               | billion for a world-wide, multi-decade project isn't that
               | much.
        
               | SiempreViernes wrote:
               | Your comment about skill transfer is about as accurate as
               | if you had meant going from "toy boat" to "Ever Given
               | (the ship)".
        
               | welterde wrote:
               | The technology used in the accelerator and the detectors
               | keeps changing though. Particle accelerators today are
               | quite different to those in the 60ies.
               | 
               | Also not sure where you got the 23 billions from. Total
               | budget for LHC is less than 8 billion euros. And that's
               | over quite a long time frame. The whole CERN budget is
               | only 1.1 billion a year (and they run quite a few
               | different experiments apart from the LHC). That's within
               | a factor of a few of a major sports club!
        
               | Barrin92 wrote:
               | I'm talking about the _new_ collider (FCC), the LHC is
               | already finished so there 's not much point talking about
               | its costs.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider
        
               | nobodyandproud wrote:
               | No, not if take her at face value. She's saying particle
               | physics has built a framework where the goalpost can keep
               | moving.
               | 
               | It's become a bottomless trap of sorts.
               | 
               | Given that resources--money and bright minds--aren't
               | infinite, she then proposes that there are other areas of
               | research that received less attention and are ripe for
               | discovery.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | Every human society more or less has had a religion with a
           | version of their cosmology, it seems universally relevant to
           | human interests to have an actual set of answers. And what is
           | "societal progress" anyway?
        
             | FollowingTheDao wrote:
             | My view of societal progress would look retrograde to
             | almost everyone.
        
               | dehrmann wrote:
               | Have you considered becoming Amish?
        
               | FollowingTheDao wrote:
               | If you met me and saw how I lived you would probably
               | think I was close enough.
        
               | jll29 wrote:
               | Modulo Internet access?
               | 
               | Out of (off-topic) curiosity, what is the reason for that
               | choice of life style? Just minimalism?
        
               | FollowingTheDao wrote:
               | Homelessness. Not really much of a choice.
        
           | couchand wrote:
           | Well, I'd argue that till now many of our most vibrant
           | flowers of innovation ultimately grew out of basic research
           | into how the universe works. A deeper understanding of the
           | fabric of the universe seems enough to me to call it
           | "societal progress" (with the OP saying particle physics no
           | longer provides such new insight), but if you're looking for
           | specific technologies that might come of it, perhaps consider
           | the benefits that could accrue to human space travel.
        
           | 8note wrote:
           | The black hole has become a culturally important concept,
           | being the center of different media as well as a common
           | metaphor, allowing us new descriptions of ideas
        
           | dEnigma wrote:
           | I don't think she was trying to say that those disciplines
           | contribute to the progress of society in any meaningful way.
           | The point, in my opinion, was that particle physics has
           | neither relevance for societal progress, nor currently makes
           | progress in the foundations of physics (as opposed to the
           | other two disciplines).
        
           | StanislavPetrov wrote:
           | >Can anybody explain the relevance of cosmology and
           | astrophysics to societal progress?
           | 
           | What is "societal progress" anyway? I'd argue that society is
           | regressing, not progressing. I'd further argue that the worth
           | of your pursuits and endeavors have no relation to the
           | progression or regression of society at large.
        
           | klyrs wrote:
           | I dunno about "progress" per se but when smart physicists and
           | mathematicians leave their fields, they often end up in
           | finance and tech. Mostly doing the opposite of "societal
           | progress," they're pulling levers to maximize profit from the
           | destruction of society.
           | 
           | What I'm saying here is essentially "idle hands are the
           | devil's playground." Keeping wonks fascinated by the minutae
           | of the nature of the universe is, in my mind, better for
           | society than many alternatives I see.
        
           | photochemsyn wrote:
           | Pale Blue Dot, the snapshot of Earth taken by Voyager I,
           | comes to mind.
           | 
           | https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/resources/536/voyager-1s-pale-b.
           | ..
           | 
           | The effect is more psychological than technological, but it
           | shows the foolishness of global warfare and resource
           | exhaustion in the name of short-term profit, and encourages
           | people to live together peacefully and work together to solve
           | global-scale problems.
        
             | FollowingTheDao wrote:
             | > and encourages people to live together peacefully and
             | work together to solve global-scale problems.
             | 
             | Hey, guess what? It didn't work. Have you read the news
             | lately?
             | 
             | Besides, I know a few sociopaths that would look at that
             | Pale Blue Dot and think "I want it all".
        
               | r3trohack3r wrote:
               | According to many metrics, it seems the world is indeed
               | improving over time. The news is a poor source for
               | evaluating the net sum of human suffering - the incentive
               | model is all wrong.
               | 
               | https://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_is_the_world_gett
               | ing...
        
               | FollowingTheDao wrote:
               | As the island of improvement grows, so grows the shores
               | of suffering.
               | 
               | But can a dataset really encapsulate human suffering? Is
               | there a lower percent of people suffering but are they
               | each suffering more individually? What is the quality of
               | the suffering? Is it better to suffer 30 years with pain
               | or to die after a month of it?
        
               | tick_tock_tick wrote:
               | > But can a dataset really encapsulate human suffering?
               | 
               | Yes
               | 
               | > Is there a lower percent of people suffering but are
               | they each suffering more individually?
               | 
               | No
               | 
               | > What is the quality of the suffering?
               | 
               | Lower
               | 
               | > Is it better to suffer 30 years with pain or to die
               | after a month of it?
               | 
               | Depends on quality of life.
        
               | FollowingTheDao wrote:
               | >> But can a dataset really encapsulate human suffering?
               | 
               | > Yes
               | 
               | Suffering its subjective so it is impossible. And you
               | proved it with:
               | 
               | > Depends on quality of life.
               | 
               | because quality of life depends on how much suffering you
               | can live with.
        
           | nine_k wrote:
           | An easy, direct link, for example:
           | 
           | Careful observation of the orbit of Mercury --> Special
           | Relativity --> General Relativity --> GPS satellites able to
           | keep exact time --> the map app on your mobile phone.
        
             | salty_biscuits wrote:
             | This idea that you need to model GR to do GNSS is very over
             | stated. You need to correct for a GR effect, but it is a
             | small part of a residual in a least squares problem that
             | gets regressed away. So it is important for understanding
             | the error budget but it really is a small effect, compared
             | to say ionospheric delay due to atmospheric charge or clock
             | drift.
        
             | gizmo686 wrote:
             | Was the orbit of Mercury (or any other astronomical
             | observations) important for the discover of Relativity. My
             | understanding was that experimental impetus for relativity
             | was the Michelson-Morley experiment, which was an in-lab
             | experiment, not an astronomical observation. General
             | relativity was then developed on a purely theoretical
             | basis.
             | 
             | That it was able to explain Mercury's orbit was a nice bit
             | of empirical confirmation after the theory was developed.
             | Having such evidence probably helped get the theory
             | accepted faster; but probably wasn't necessary. Almost by
             | definition, a theory that is ultimately useful can be
             | confirmed without need of astronomy. If the theory is
             | useful to do X, then we can try doing X as an experiment
             | and see if it works how the theory predicts.
             | 
             | As a secondary point, we could probably get GPS to work
             | even without relativity. The core idea makes just as much
             | sense under any theory of a finite speed of light. When we
             | actually launched a GPS constellation and try it, the
             | engineers would notice that the clocks were drifting for
             | some unknown reason. Some ad-hoc corrections later and the
             | engineers could account for the drift based on empirical
             | evidence, likely with regular re synchronization and
             | recalibration of the fudge factors.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | _> Was the orbit of Mercury (or any other astronomical
               | observations) important for the discover of Relativity._
               | 
               | For _general_ relativity, yes.
               | 
               |  _> My understanding was that experimental impetus for
               | relativity was the Michelson-Morley experiment_
               | 
               | This was one of the results that pointed the way to
               | _special_ relativity. It had nothing to do with general
               | relativity.
               | 
               |  _> General relativity was then developed on a purely
               | theoretical basis._
               | 
               | No, it wasn't. There was a huge body of experimental
               | evidence already about gravity. It was true that all of
               | that evidence, _except_ for the anomalous precession of
               | Mercury 's perihelion, could be explained by Newtonian
               | gravity; but general relativity, as a proposed new theory
               | of gravity, had to also account for all of that
               | experimental evidence. In other words, in the appropriate
               | limiting case (weak fields and low speeds compared to the
               | speed of light), general relativity had to reproduce all
               | of the correct predictions of Newtonian gravity. That was
               | a huge, and very important, experimental constraint.
               | 
               |  _> Almost by definition, a theory that is ultimately
               | useful can be confirmed without need of astronomy._
               | 
               | Not if the differences between its predictions and the
               | predictions of the previous theory (in this case
               | Newtonian gravity) are only measurable in astronomical
               | observations at the time the new theory is proposed. That
               | was true of general relativity in 1915 and for at least a
               | couple of decades afterwards. The differences between GR
               | and Newtonian gravity for earthbound experiments were
               | simply too small for the technology of the time to
               | measure. So astronomical observations were the only way
               | to test GR when it was proposed.
               | 
               |  _> we could probably get GPS to work even without
               | relativity_
               | 
               | Technology can of course be developed on a purely
               | empirical basis, if you're prepared to make a lot of
               | mistakes along the way that you wouldn't make without a
               | good theoretical foundation. If it hadn't been for the
               | knowledge of relativity on the part of the scientists
               | involved, the GPS satellites probably would have been
               | launched without _any_ capability for adjusting their
               | clock rates. Which would have meant that, once clock rate
               | drift due to relativistic effects was seen, there would
               | have been no way to adjust for it. So those satellites
               | would have become expensive but useless toys, and a new
               | constellation of satellites would have had to be built
               | and launched.
        
               | gizmo686 wrote:
               | > No, it wasn't. There was a huge body of experimental
               | evidence already about gravity. It was true that all of
               | that evidence, except for the anomalous precession of
               | Mercury's perihelion, could be explained by Newtonian
               | gravity; but general relativity, as a proposed new theory
               | of gravity, had to also account for all of that
               | experimental evidence. In other words, in the appropriate
               | limiting case (weak fields and low speeds compared to the
               | speed of light), general relativity had to reproduce all
               | of the correct predictions of Newtonian gravity. That was
               | a huge, and very important, experimental constraint.
               | 
               | Yes. I assumed that reproducing Newtonian gravity in the
               | classical limit would be considered theoretical, as we
               | had a solid theoretical understanding of Newtonian
               | physics. Implicit in that would be a bunch of empirical
               | evidence; but Einstein wouldn't need to explicitly think
               | about the details of what evidence supported Newtonian
               | mechanics (beyond the general understanding that it was
               | all in the classical limit).
               | 
               | > Not if the differences between its predictions and the
               | predictions of the previous theory (in this case
               | Newtonian gravity) are only measurable in astronomical
               | observations at the time the new theory is proposed.
               | 
               | Such a theory is not "useful", for many definitions of
               | useful. Astronomical observations allowed us to verify
               | Relativity earlier than we otherwise would be able to;
               | but eventually technology advanced to the point where we
               | could conduct satellite based experiments to directly
               | confirm it. The theory was not practically useful until
               | we had this technology.
               | 
               | > Technology can of course be developed on a purely
               | empirical basis, if you're prepared to make a lot of
               | mistakes along the way that you wouldn't make without a
               | good theoretical foundation. If it hadn't been for the
               | knowledge of relativity on the part of the scientists
               | involved, the GPS satellites probably would have been
               | launched without any capability for adjusting their clock
               | rates.
               | 
               | Its not like we launched the entire GPS constellation
               | then just hoped it would work. Before launching the GPS
               | constellation, we launched the experimental Timation
               | satellites to act as a proof of concept. Difficulties
               | with maintaining accurate clocks in orbit would have been
               | noticed then (if not sooner).
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | Good luck finding a $1Tr project without real world
               | evidence - just theoretical models.
        
               | flaburgan wrote:
               | You mean like we do at CERN?
        
               | fhars wrote:
               | No, there was basically no empirical input into the
               | development of special relativity either, Michelson-
               | Morley was already perfectly explained by Lorentz
               | contraction caused by movement of matter through the
               | ether.
               | 
               | What special relativity did was solve the purely
               | theoretical contradictions between Newtonian mechanics
               | and Maxwell's electrodynamics (hence the title of
               | Einstein's paper "On the electrodynamics of moving
               | bodies"), reinterpreting Lorentz' math for the
               | description of movement through the ether as
               | transformations of spacetime itself and doing away with
               | the ether.
        
             | robonerd wrote:
             | True, but if we graft this argument onto Sabine's argument,
             | it doesn't seem very fair. Those astronomical observations
             | and the development of General Relativity were done a
             | century ago and have relevance today. But if particle
             | physics is being judged against astronomy, then shouldn't
             | the modern societal benefits of century old of particle
             | physics count as well, contradicting the claim that
             | particle physics lacks societal benefits?
        
         | noobermin wrote:
         | While she makes the rounds on HN, it is really worth noting
         | that as she says, Sabine Hossenfelder is more or less a pariah
         | amongst particle physicists, as was Lee Smolin before her. It's
         | disappointing though because I largely agree with her
         | assessment, too much of particle physics has left what I would
         | consider science and is now a paper generation exercise (not
         | that that isn't throughout science, but particle theory is even
         | more so in that direction).
         | 
         | This is one of those places where peer-review fails, if you
         | study or proclaim something against the prevailing norms. There
         | is a slight hope for you if you're a well known name already,
         | like Hossenfelder, but it's pretty much a death sentence for
         | you if you're at a no-name university somewhere. There really
         | is no motivation to pierce the wall vs. just silently doing
         | little incremental work that continues the current established
         | theory even when on a whole that theory is leading the field
         | nowhere.
         | 
         | Usually, at some point the funding dries up but they're lucky
         | all the big famous names are sympathetic to particle physics
         | and it continues to command a large amount of funding amongst
         | those studying fundamental physics. So things march on.
        
       | olaf wrote:
       | to paraphrase a german ...
        
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