[HN Gopher] Uber and Lyft's new road: Fewer drivers, thrifty rid...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Uber and Lyft's new road: Fewer drivers, thrifty riders and jittery
       investors
        
       Author : elsewhen
       Score  : 168 points
       Date   : 2022-05-28 18:27 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | scarface74 wrote:
       | Shocker! A product is more popular that is sold below cost and
       | you actually need to charge more for a product than it costs to
       | produce?
        
       | black_13 wrote:
        
       | lumost wrote:
       | I think we're about to see a lot of tech ideas with questionable
       | economics come back to earth. When the cost of capital was below
       | a single digit, "parking" money in a growth bet could vaguely
       | make sense. After all, someday Uber would figure it out, or get
       | AVs, or .. something? Better than leaving the money in a .01%
       | money market for 10 years, or parking the money in something with
       | no path for growth like industrials.
       | 
       | This problem isn't restricted to startups however, even big tech
       | has big expensive forays into questionable markets. Meta is
       | building something for a few billion a year, Google has hundreds
       | of strange an unprofitable businesses, and B2B SaaS is full of
       | startups which may actually just be consultancies.
       | 
       | A 10-12% cost of capital means that you either need to have a
       | real plan to turn profit in 3 years or investors won't care. Just
       | breaking even means an opportunity cost of 30%.
        
         | jjfoooo6 wrote:
         | Three different flavors of big bet. Meta realizing their core
         | business, while massive, has peaked, loudly reorienting their
         | business around a dubious moonshot bet.
         | 
         | Google burning cash in a moonshot division, dubiously betting
         | that creating startups within Google is easier than outside of
         | it.
         | 
         | Uber/Lyft subsidizing customers for a long while to take over
         | the market, which... pretty much worked? Of the three "big
         | bets" this seems most promising. Even if the market decreases,
         | it's not going away, nor is it going back to regional taxi
         | companies.
        
           | lumost wrote:
           | Its worth considering that 3 is actually quite common within
           | large companies as well. I can think of a few industries
           | dominated by big tech that have never turned a profit or even
           | positive free cash flow.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | The thing that actually puzzles me is that in the post-
             | Kalanick era, Uber didn't more aggressively pivot to
             | essentially being a taxi company where drivers supply their
             | own vehicles. You've got a working app--how many people do
             | you need to maintain/enhance it? Self-driving isn't
             | happening in an economically interesting time horizon--
             | certainly not reliable door-to-door in cities. So raise
             | prices, cut costs, and have what's a fairly attractive taxi
             | business for many places.
             | 
             | Of course, that may not have been what investors wanted to
             | hear.
        
           | bin_bash wrote:
           | I think you're right. I couldn't imagine using taxis when
           | traveling for work ever again. Uber sends the receipt
           | straight into Concur for me.
           | 
           | Pre-Uber I remember having to get Taxi drivers to write me a
           | freehand paper receipt to expense.
        
         | prasadjoglekar wrote:
         | Exactly right! An unintended side effect of the artificially
         | low cost of capital was that labor seemed expensive. All the
         | long shot ideas that tried to "improve productivity" - whether
         | by replacing drivers with driverless cars, or robots flipping
         | burgers are entirely uneconomical when cost of capital goes up.
         | 
         | Now, capital has become more expensive and labor is also more
         | expensive. It's a perfect shitstorm for a lot of projects.
        
         | websap wrote:
         | Comparing Meta and Google, to Lyft and Uber isn't an apples to
         | apples comparison. The former have cash cow businesses and have
         | captial that they can deploy to find the next $100 billion
         | dollar business. Its essential for their long term survival to
         | keep diversifying and reinventing themselves.
        
           | halJordan wrote:
           | I think that's the point. That even these well funded,
           | relatively sovereign companies will be punished for their
           | moonshots and that means the future will be devastating for
           | these magical unicorns.
        
             | sfblah wrote:
             | One wonders what government policies preventing this from
             | happening are doing to the future. I don't have any way to
             | objectively measure this, but my general sense is each day
             | interest rates remain artificially low, the downside
             | becomes greater. I'd be curious if you know a way to
             | quantify this effect.
        
               | ForHackernews wrote:
               | Interest rates are not being kept "artificially low":
               | central banks have already raised rates, and have
               | signalled that they intend to continue raising rates.
        
       | lordnacho wrote:
       | Let's not forget that this kind of venture also destroys the
       | business it was meant to disrupt, at least while the venture
       | money is flowing.
       | 
       | Uncreative distruction.
       | 
       | Somehow it seems wrong that people can make enough money to buy
       | an island without actually making money.
        
         | seibelj wrote:
         | Taxi cabs pre-Uber were awful, at least in the 3 cities I used
         | them most (NYC, Boston, Vegas). Dirty cars and often
         | unmaintained. Regularly taken in circuitous routes to raise the
         | meter charge. "Broken" credit card machine. Very difficult to
         | find a taxi if you weren't in popular areas. Calling a
         | dispatcher for a taxi only to wait an hour and have them not
         | show up.
         | 
         | Having apps solved all of the above problems. I would give 0%
         | chance of any similar improvements under the monopolistic
         | medallion system that exists in the old regime. Uber forced
         | innovation that was so much better the politicians folded
         | despite intense lobbying from the old hands.
        
           | marcinzm wrote:
           | That however is why they were cheaper. It seems, from the
           | article, people don't actually want to pay the premium for
           | that better level of service.
        
             | uxp100 wrote:
             | Which was cheaper? In my experience, in addition to being
             | much worse in many ways (love to be called and told my cab
             | driver is ready to pick me up when I am already boarded and
             | sitting in a plane, after the dispatcher repeatedly told me
             | they were 10 minutes away for an hour, and then I managed
             | to just street hail a cab at 5 am) cabs were also about 50%
             | more expensive.
             | 
             | However, my local cab company got an app, it's a piece of
             | shit, but it shows where the cab is in a map as it comes to
             | you, which really was the killer feature for Uber/Lyft for
             | me. So good riddance Uber, you served a purpose for a time,
             | but normal cabs stepped up their game just a little bit,
             | and I have basically negative loyalty to you.
        
               | marcinzm wrote:
               | In NYC the call taxi companies were cheaper than
               | uber/lyft even in the prime discount days of those apps.
               | Of course the user experience was much worse.
        
               | vkou wrote:
               | In NYC my user experience with Lyft has been much worse
               | than taxis.
               | 
               | Cost more, longer waits, cherry on top of a Lyft driver
               | waiting five minutes on the other side of a long block
               | away from pickup, and canceling the ride because I
               | allegedly refused to show up. That I had to talk to CS to
               | reverse the charge with.
               | 
               | I took taxis for the rest of my time in NYC, and I can't
               | see any reason not to keep doing so.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | >people don't actually want to pay the premium for that
             | better level of service
             | 
             | See air travel in general.
        
               | logifail wrote:
               | >>people don't actually want to pay the premium for that
               | better level of service
               | 
               | > See air travel in general.
               | 
               | At least in Europe, currently having a provider get you
               | from A to B as per your booking is the key, "premium" /
               | "better level of service" is completely irrelevant.
               | 
               | I'm back to booking everything as cheap as possible. If
               | it's all going to go wrong, I want to have paid peanuts
               | for it so I can just walk away and not bother having to
               | try and claim anything back.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I admittedly do relatively few short-haul flights. With
               | some exceptions, 5 hours is about the floor so I will pay
               | for more comfort/relaxation.
        
           | johnisgood wrote:
           | In Eastern Europe there is no Uber nor Lyft. Waiting time is
           | 2-10 minutes on average in a fairly large city. Cars are
           | definitely not dirty nor unmaintained, they have the
           | reputation of having cars that are almost new, and so forth.
           | Prices have increased of course.
        
         | scarface74 wrote:
         | I don't see the problem. The cab companies needed to die. Uber
         | and Lyft will raise their prices to become affordable - back to
         | the price of cabs - and still be a lot better than what they
         | replaced.
        
           | cj wrote:
           | We're killing hundreds (thousands?) of individual cab
           | companies so that we can consolidate the entirety of the cab
           | industry into 2 tech conglomerates. I don't see how that's a
           | win.
        
             | scarface74 wrote:
             | Those cab companies offer worse services and are
             | monopolistic and the whole medallion system.
             | 
             | There are plenty of horror stories where minorities can't
             | get a cab in the middle of NYC.
             | 
             | https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-metro-cabbies-
             | fines-...
             | 
             | This is not a problem with Uber.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | I would take hundreds regional monopolies over one global
               | monopoly any day. At least if you're banned from the taxi
               | service in Boston you can still catch a cab in New York.
        
               | missedthecue wrote:
               | I think you're underestimating the number of global ride
               | sharing companies.
        
         | soared wrote:
         | My city didn't have taxis, but we have Lyft and Uber.
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | If you're big enough to be a Lyft and Uber market, you're big
           | enough for taxis. Outside of NYC they're usually just not
           | that visible; normal cars, dispatched via phone.
        
         | aeturnum wrote:
         | People are pointing out that Lyft and Uber often brought car
         | service to towns without taxies and that is true (and good I
         | suppose).
         | 
         | But I do not think that's the business we should be sad about
         | disrupting - Lyft and especially Uber have been fighting hard
         | against all sorts of public transit systems across the US
         | because they view them as competitors. It's unclear how
         | effective they have been, but I also have no love for their
         | intention - which is to lock the public into their service.
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | Totally unsurprising and still both unprofitable businesses
       | (Lyft, and Uber) 3 years after IPO. [0]
       | 
       | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21328967
        
       | munificent wrote:
       | My favorite feature of Uber and Lyft the last several years is
       | that it's essentially a crowdsourced way to transfer wealth from
       | VCs to random users.
       | 
       | Operating every drive at a loss means the rider and drivers
       | benefit and the person holding the bag is some VC who apparently
       | has more money than they know what to do with. Given how many
       | financial structures today seem to flow in the opposite direction
       | and skim a little money from everyone to transfer it to the
       | already-rich, it's nice seeing a system that (completely
       | unintentionally) flows the other way.
        
         | hotpotamus wrote:
         | I felt the same way until the IPO.
        
         | walrus01 wrote:
         | the drivers don't really benefit that much, because after you
         | subtract the cost of the purchase of a suitable car,
         | repairs/maintenance, tires, fuel and so on to calculate the
         | fully loaded cost per mile of operating a lyft car for several
         | years, the wage remaining for the driver (after subtracting the
         | US income tax as a 1099) is often under the minimum wage (and
         | _far_ under the living wage) in many major metro areas. Using
         | Seattle as an example and its $15 /hr minimum wage.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | If it didn't work for them, they wouldn't drive.
        
           | aetherson wrote:
           | It's a strong labor market. Nothing stopping lyft drivers
           | from getting jobs in food service or warehouses or a variety
           | of other jobs that have few requirements to qualify for.
        
             | walrus01 wrote:
             | I think there's a big reliance on the part of these
             | employers in recruiting and retaining employees who are
             | either less literate, less informed, more gullible, or more
             | servile than the average service industry worker.
        
             | black_13 wrote:
        
             | AYBABTME wrote:
             | You don't need a work visa to drive an Uber.
        
           | missedthecue wrote:
           | According to various online calculators, the average
           | operating cost for a Prius is about $0.11 per mile. Includes
           | fuel, depreciation, repair, maintenance, etc...
           | 
           | Uber drivers are doing way better than $0.11 per mile.
        
         | ncr100 wrote:
         | Aaaand the disruption to the faltering regulated Taxi system,
         | eating that for lunch.
         | 
         | Travis K is still out there. Doing things.
        
         | 1270018080 wrote:
         | The early VC's cashed out and made billions. Retail investors
         | are paying for these losses.
        
         | mperham wrote:
         | The VCs made plenty of money in the IPO. It's the shareholders
         | who are left holding an empty bag.
        
         | robertlagrant wrote:
         | VC funds are constantly being spent like this. The main
         | unavoidable flow in the other direction is taxes and inflation
         | from printing money.
         | 
         | VCs get rich, but they risk a lot of their own money doing so.
        
           | native_samples wrote:
           | VCs are generally not risking their own money these days.
           | They raise funds from many other people, and sometimes that
           | includes <gulp> pension funds.
        
             | astrange wrote:
             | Spending your own money is called angel investing. VCs
             | spend other people's money.
        
         | s5300 wrote:
         | I once had uber x drives (that's what the solo is called
         | right?) in San Diego going... at least 5 miles. Sorrento
         | Valley/La Jolla.
         | 
         | After a month or two I started having rides discounted to
         | literally as low as $3.12
         | 
         | All I could think was that "somebody is definitely losing a lot
         | of money here & it's not me"
         | 
         | Was very interesting. I know the driver wouldn't be doing that
         | if he was making $3 for the trip.
        
         | rglullis wrote:
         | It could also be seen as a very convoluted way to subsidize the
         | car industry and to stall the push for better public transit.
        
           | rzz3 wrote:
           | I always see people coming back to public transit in
           | discussions like this, but there seems to be some kind of
           | fundamental disconnect. Uber/Lyft are for people who don't
           | have that kind of time.
        
             | rglullis wrote:
             | Today you are one of the lucky 10 thousand:
             | https://youtu.be/RQY6WGOoYis
        
             | tonguez wrote:
             | the fundamental disconnect is you aren't actually more
             | important than other people just because you were given
             | more money
        
         | hef19898 wrote:
         | Drivers work gogs, as in not being employees. Traditional taxi
         | companies, as shitty as their service might be some places, are
         | risking of being driven out of business. Legislation has been
         | ignored. Thebonly ones not holding the bag are the VCs, and
         | users. Everyone else is. And all that in the pursuit of an
         | elusive monopoly fuel by cheap, and later dumb, money. Oh yeah,
         | talking about dumb money, retail investors are holding the bag
         | as well.
        
           | Permit wrote:
           | > Traditional taxi companies, as shitty as their service
           | might be some places, are risking of being driven out of
           | business.
           | 
           | This is not the downside you think it is. So help me if I
           | could snap my fingers and make this happen I just might do
           | it.
        
             | gcheong wrote:
             | But what makes them so awful? Most likely it was the
             | medallion system that limited competition in the market so
             | maybe there is a system somewhere in-between that and the
             | unprofitable ride share systems that work well for
             | everyone. I just got back from Madrid and taxis were
             | plentiful and metered with a flat fare to and from the
             | airport. They all have the same markings so you can tell
             | they are taxis but there are a variety of vehicles from
             | Teslas to bare bones stick shifters being used. Uber was
             | barely a thing there but there was an app called Free Now
             | that many of the cars had on them.
        
               | admax88qqq wrote:
               | So basically they had Uber but as a different brand.
               | 
               | If you remove the medallion system, let people drive
               | their own cars, and coordinate with riders via an app,
               | you have Uber.
        
               | gcheong wrote:
               | The difference is there is some regulation around it
               | because they are all metered so everyone is charging the
               | same rates and I suspect it's a better deal for the
               | drivers and customers overall. Btw I didn't use the app
               | once as it was just easier to hail from the street.
        
               | Permit wrote:
               | Off the top of my head:
               | 
               | - Lying about the debit/credit machine being broken in
               | order to receive cash.
               | 
               | - Being unwilling to drive to/from certain neighborhoods.
               | 
               | - Not turning the meter on in order to take advantage of
               | people not from the city/country.
               | 
               | - My (possibly incorrect) perception is that they are
               | harder to hold to account. I do not always know the
               | number of the taxi that picked me up and dropped me off.
               | 
               | - Calling a taxi dispatch does not guarantee one will
               | arrive. If service is slow you end up in a strange limbo
               | of "Is that taxi late or have I been abandoned at
               | 2:30am?"
               | 
               | There's probably more but those are the ones that spring
               | to mind based on my personal experiences with taxis. Even
               | if Uber was only offered as a premium service I would
               | still order one over a taxi.
        
         | princevegeta89 wrote:
         | Isn't that how a majority of inflated startups work? VC money
         | moves the bus for a quite a long time and if profitability
         | can't be figured out, it will come out in the form of layoffs
         | and downturns.
         | 
         | Take Doordash for example, every delivery they do with is
         | powered by VC money.
        
           | dasil003 wrote:
           | DoorDash IPO'ed 18 months ago.
        
       | lukifer wrote:
       | The P2P transportation market is an ideal one for a workers'
       | cooperative. The fact that Uber and Lyft are running at a loss
       | (...for now) does not make them any less rent-seeking in their
       | business model.
       | 
       | https://drivers.coop/
       | 
       | https://ridefair.io/
        
         | itake wrote:
         | > ideal one for a workers' cooperative
         | 
         | I am sorry, but there is not way a workers' cooperative can
         | build a safe product for passenger and drivers. All of the
         | leading rideshare companies have invested 10s if not 100s of
         | millions into safety platforms that leverage the latest face
         | recognition, fraud algorithms, and more to ensure that everyone
         | can have a safe ride.
         | 
         | Both passengers and drivers robbed and murdered each before
         | these investments were made to keep the bad guys off and the
         | good guys safe.
        
           | igorkraw wrote:
           | ...you know why they need to do that? Because they have an
           | incentive to let basically anyone join and have an
           | adversarial relationship. A workers cooperative can be a
           | faceless organisation, but unlike a company it is also an
           | _actual_ community, so things like vetting who let in I 'd
           | much more feasible to do you'd do in a community than in a
           | "startup family" trying to squeeze their drivers. It could be
           | as simple as requiring somebody to vouch for you and being
           | responsible for whatever fuckups you do.
        
         | tested23 wrote:
        
         | ceeplusplus wrote:
         | From the jobs page of the first link for a software engineer
         | position: "The position is salaried up to $72,000 a year
         | depending on geography. Fixed-term contracts are available."
         | 
         | Sorry, but you're not buying competitive talent with 72k/year
         | salary. Uber can squeeze out tons of marginal efficiencies via
         | better routing/matching, price discrimination, and surge
         | algorithms. Implementing those algorithms means hiring good
         | talent, especially in ML. Having a fancy frontend is only 10%
         | of the picture if you want drivers to have good utilization.
        
           | endisneigh wrote:
           | > edit: and the second link advertises using Postgres, which
           | will never scale past the size of a single US state
           | 
           | to be fair depending on the exact implementation details you
           | probably could do everything you need, including management
           | using Spanner and BigTable.
        
           | hackernewds wrote:
           | this assumes Uber can only hire silicon valley engineers.
           | $72k is plenty money in a cheap gas/food/rent no state tax
           | city like Dallas
        
           | ForHackernews wrote:
           | > which will never scale past the size of a single US state
           | 
           | People live in a city and take cabs in that city. Build a
           | city-scale app. For extra credit, add federation APIs to
           | interoperate with other city-scale worker-owned co-op apps.
           | 
           | Only a tiny 0.1% of people (including Uber's dumb investors)
           | think that being able to use the same app in every city on
           | earth is a killer feature.
        
             | endisneigh wrote:
             | You don't even need multiple apps. Even if a Postgres DB
             | only scaled to a single city, which is wrong to begin with,
             | you could shard it per city/state/country pretty easily.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | mathgladiator wrote:
           | I think most of those efficiencies can be done better by a
           | human dispatcher. The key thing which made Uber take off was
           | a combination of convenience and better cars. Solve the
           | convenience and that can take you a far way for many people.
        
             | ceeplusplus wrote:
             | I don't really think humans are better equipped to route
             | 10-15 cars in a region factoring in drivers' preferences
             | for direction, pickup and dropoff zone attractiveness to
             | drivers, and traffic. See this research on human solutions
             | to the vehicle routing problem: "When comparing the human
             | performance with the optimal solution and classical
             | heuristics (nearest neighbor, savings, and sweep), we see
             | that participants typically perform better than the worst
             | heuristic and worse than the best heuristic" [1]. All of
             | these algorithms are pretty naive baselines and you can do
             | a lot better with actual routing software. And this being a
             | low margin winner take all business, Uber being slightly
             | better with algorithms makes it substantially better as an
             | option compared to the coop.
             | 
             | Also I think you're underestimating the difficulty of
             | consistent hiring. You can definitely find a good
             | dispatcher in NYC, but can you scale that level of skill to
             | the entire US?
             | 
             | [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S
             | 03050...
        
           | mathgladiator wrote:
           | All postgres needs to handle is a large metro area and then
           | is trivial to shard and scale out.
        
       | karaterobot wrote:
       | I would like to read an explanation for how Uber and Lyft can't
       | be profitable when taxicab companies can be.
        
         | SnowHill9902 wrote:
         | Overhead. Taxi drivers get a return on their time. Uber needs a
         | return on payouts which is hard money.
        
         | MegaDeKay wrote:
         | It is in the article: "Uber and Lyft have been a crude
         | proposition all along: Subsidize unprofitable taxi rides with
         | venture capital money, claw for market share, and eventually
         | figure something out that will make such taxi rides profitable
         | despite the huge corporate structure of well-paid executives
         | and engineers, a thing traditional taxi companies with already
         | razor-thin margins didn't have."
        
           | karaterobot wrote:
           | I read the article, but that's not the level of explanation I
           | want. I want to know how, for example, at the scale Uber and
           | Lyft are operating at, the salaries of executives and
           | engineers are more than the efficiencies it seems like they
           | would gain. On paper, you shouldn't need to add a linear
           | amount of overhead every time move into a new city: with taxi
           | companies, you have to add physical buildings, admin,
           | dispatchers, service personnel, and a bunch of other costs
           | every time. You'd think Uber and Lyft could be a lot leaner
           | than taxi companies, even though engineers make more than
           | dispatchers: why not?
        
         | yuliyp wrote:
         | taxicab companies aren't spending billions of dollars a year on
         | bubble-inflated tech salaries.
        
         | smelendez wrote:
         | Less overhead. Maybe an office and a garage in a cheap part of
         | town and a few dispatchers and potentially a mechanic, etc.
         | 
         | Uber has to maintain its servers and has a massive crew of
         | white collar workers in expensive cities writing code,
         | maintaining the servers, designing apps, marketing, lobbying,
         | litigating, modeling potential business models, etc.
        
         | ashalhashim wrote:
         | Taxicab companies don't have to pay the Bay Area salaries of
         | engineers, data scientists, MBAs, etc. nor do they have massive
         | advertising and marketing overhead.
        
       | relaunched wrote:
       | The broker model has a yes out in the transportation industry,
       | before Uber and Lyft were a twinkle in someones eye. It's a low
       | margin business and has gained efficiency through tech. Once we
       | understand that the gross margins are probably 20%, you are
       | scalping the drivers and no driver can exist successfully living
       | off brokered rides alone, Uber and Lyft will price like CH
       | Robinson.
        
       | 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
       | 25.        Uber and Lyft Are Out of Ideas, Jacking Up Prices in
       | Desperation for Profit (vice.com)        127 points by elsewhen 2
       | hours ago | flag | hide | 179 comments
       | 
       | Above is what I saw on the HN front page minutes ago. Then I
       | started reading the comments thread and suddenly the submitted
       | article has changed. It is now pointing to WSJ instead of VICE.
       | 
       | Looks like the original VICE article has even been scrubbed from
       | HN entirely.
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=vice.com
       | 
       | Below is the original article.
       | 
       | https://www.vice.com/en/article/m7vmpb/uber-and-lyft-are-out...
        
         | beeboop wrote:
         | weird
        
       | robertlagrant wrote:
       | > the current business model passes off nearly all of the costs
       | of actually running a taxi company onto drivers who pay for their
       | own cars, fuel, and insurance, whereas AVs would have meant both
       | companies would be paying for those things, but that's a moot
       | point now
       | 
       | I know that Vice is a meme these days, but I can't resist. Where
       | do they think the money is going? Mostly to the fees that are
       | paid to drivers. If those costs are baked in and they are still
       | losing money, it's because they're paying the drivers more than
       | they can afford. They were banking on not having to pay AV
       | drivers wages, sick leave, pensions, have them go on strike, etc
       | etc. Just provide customers a good service for an amount these
       | companies could sustain.
       | 
       | Now, that was a wild bet for sure, but not a bad one for humanity
       | to have tried.
        
         | woodruffw wrote:
         | > Now, that was a wild bet for sure, but not a bad one for
         | humanity to have tried.
         | 
         | I think there is a _very literal and material_ sense in which
         | it was a quite bad bet for us to have tried. How many tens
         | thousands of people skipped medical procedures, lost birthdays
         | and holidays with loved ones, and didn 't live as well as they
         | could have because of these companies' cynical abuse of their
         | labor?
        
         | zouhair wrote:
         | > but not a bad bet
         | 
         | What was good about it? They could have worked with existing
         | taxi companies to sell their technology to create a better
         | market, that would have been a good bet. Betting on making
         | everything worse and hoping to profit from it was a horrible
         | bet.
         | 
         | If they continue what they are doing, I can't wait for them to
         | crash and burn.
         | 
         | Fuck the "Gig economy".
        
           | alar44 wrote:
           | They tried that and the big taxi companies weren't
           | interested. Similar situation to Blockbuster and Netflix.
        
       | rossdavidh wrote:
       | Here's my question: how much will this hurt AWS? Oh, Uber and
       | Lyft alone won't, of course, even though IIRC their IPO's
       | revealed staggering AWS bills. But, there are a lot of goofy
       | ideas out there masquerading as companies, and the VC spigot just
       | turned off. That spigot was pushing VC money, via a very complex
       | system of middlemen, to AWS.
       | 
       | If AWS has half their customers disappear, what does that do to
       | Amazon's bottom line?
        
         | hackernewds wrote:
         | same for Stripe. and Twilio. and Segment
         | 
         | b2b companies that coasted on free reign will struggle a ton
        
         | hotpotamus wrote:
         | A lot of those goofy idea companies convinced everyone else
         | that they should spend nearly unlimited amounts on AWS because
         | of opex or other reason, and now everyone believes they need to
         | migrate to cloud as well. Maybe they do, what do I know? I
         | don't feel a need to contribute to that huge margin that AWS
         | makes, but based on their growth and the interest from lots of
         | legacy businesses in moving to the cloud, I wouldn't be too
         | worried about them.
        
         | ajross wrote:
         | AWS revenue is mostly per usage, not per customer. A handful of
         | ML plays excepted, all those startups were tiny things with
         | very little actual resources required. Most of Amazons money
         | surely comes from giant customers like Netflix and Facebook
         | (hell, even Uber and Lyft are probably lost in the noise, they
         | don't stream anything).
        
         | moralestapia wrote:
         | >If AWS has half their customers disappear
         | 
         | Nah, they're not even 1% of AWS. Plus AWS is profitable AF.
        
           | hackernewds wrote:
           | if 0.01% users are 1% of their revenue, that's a huge
           | concerning consolidation. AWS IS indeed in this situation
           | when the full discretionary spending sector struggles.
           | 
           | AWS might be super high margins, but it does not exist in a
           | vacuum. AWS cross subsidization powers AMZN retail to be able
           | to run at a <1% margin.
        
             | moralestapia wrote:
             | Could you elaborate? I don't seem to grasp your point.
             | 
             | >AWS cross subsidization powers AMZN retail to be able to
             | run at a <1% margin.
             | 
             | I've never truly understood that number, how come they have
             | such low margins where most of the products I see there
             | have a 10-20% markup (at least) vs. the same product in
             | classic "offline" retailers (costco, walmart, etc...)?
             | 
             | "But they send it to your home", yeah but they charge you
             | for that too.
        
       | GoOnThenDoTell wrote:
       | Of course they need to make money, they cant subsidise everyone
       | forever
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Url changed from https://www.vice.com/en/article/m7vmpb/uber-and-
       | lyft-are-out..., which points to this.
        
       | jonthepirate wrote:
       | Former Lyft engineer here. I'm convinced they will go out of
       | business or sell the scraps to someone... however smart acquirers
       | like Elon wouldn't go near it. Rideshare sucks.
        
       | grej wrote:
       | If you're arriving at an airport or other high traffic area, you
       | will almost always get a better price and timelier service by
       | simply jumping in a standard taxi. I'd say this has been the case
       | for at least 6-9 months.
        
         | ww520 wrote:
         | The airport taxi hates short hop ride. The taxi drivers got
         | visibly frustrated and angry after hearing my destination is
         | not long distance. I just get a Uber/Lyft to avoid the airport
         | cartel.
        
           | mjcohen wrote:
           | We live 10 minutes from LAX. Taxi drivers get somewhat
           | annoyed, but we give them $20 and that seems to make them
           | feel better.
           | 
           | Also, we have a favorite taxi company we use to get to LAX.
           | We make reservations a few days in advance, and they have
           | always showed up on schedule.
        
           | throwoutway wrote:
           | My coworker got yelled at by a taxi driver recently at DCA
           | airport for this.
        
             | brokenodometer wrote:
             | Which is dumb because DCA is like 10 minutes from downtown,
             | so I'm not sure why they would expect most travelers to be
             | headed to the suburbs.
        
               | missedthecue wrote:
               | Well plenty of fliers will live in the DC suburbs. Only
               | the visitors will be going downtown.
        
         | rzz3 wrote:
         | That may be true, but I'd much rather ride in an Uber or Lyft
         | with less timely service and a higher price, than in a nasty
         | yellow Crown Victoria from the dawn of time itself, with that
         | ugly, rough, stained interior that smells like cigarettes and
         | vomit. Taxis don't even offer phone chargers or water.
         | 
         | IMO, Taxis would have long since died as an industry if it
         | weren't for governments propping them up artificially.
        
           | adrr wrote:
           | The last Uber I rode in was a beat up Prius that smelled like
           | pee. Uber has lowered their standards.
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | I would ride in a professionally-serviced Crown Victoria over
           | a Prius with bald tires, obviously ruined steering joints,
           | and no windshield wipers, which is a true and faithful
           | description of the last Uber I suffered.
        
           | trimbo wrote:
           | Last time I tried taking an Uber from SFO to SF, the quoted
           | price was $150.
           | 
           | Taxi downstairs was $40 and was waiting for me to get in.
           | Didn't smell like vomit. But if it did, I'd roll down the
           | window and remember I'm saving $110 for a 20 minute ride.
        
           | alkonaut wrote:
           | A taxi for me is a maximum 1-2 years old black typically
           | German car summoned and paid in an app.
           | 
           | If your taxi is a monopoly using old cars, where card readers
           | are "broken" and who don't have apps - it's your taxi that is
           | broken, not the concept of taxi. Many US and European cities
           | have bad taxis, but many also have good taxis.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | That's not at all my experience in Raleigh in particular.
           | Walk to the cab line, get in, pay with card. No fussing
           | around with an app and waiting.
        
             | largbae wrote:
             | That works when you are at the first point in your trip.
             | Now get that taxi to show up in a timely manner at your
             | house or the house of someone you visit.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I do usually use Lyft for the return. But I'd have no
               | trouble using a cab or some car the hotel has contracted
               | with for going back to the airport.
        
             | missedthecue wrote:
             | By "fussing with an app" you mean about three clicks?
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Invariably there's some wait which I don't want. Business
               | travellers basically want zero friction.
        
           | seunosewa wrote:
           | They'd still exist because there is a demand for the service.
           | Someone would satisfy the demand.
        
         | debaserab2 wrote:
         | Depends on the airport. Cab services in some cities are very
         | poor.
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/bt3bA
        
       | foobaw wrote:
       | I think we need to stop comparing Uber to Lyft. To me, this is
       | more of a Lyft problem as Uber has diversified way more.
        
       | gsibble wrote:
       | I've had over 10,000 Uber rides, all black, some SUV since 2011.
       | I would have no problem if they just focused on the higher end of
       | the market where there's profit to be made. I never thought their
       | going down market was a good idea.
        
         | hiq wrote:
         | > I've had over 10,000 Uber rides, all black, some SUV since
         | 2011
         | 
         | 10000/11/365 = 2.5 per day, is this your main means of
         | transportation?
        
       | theHNAcct wrote:
       | This was always the idea. I remember Jason Calacanis saying on
       | This Week In Startups months ago that Uber is in growth mode,
       | eventually when push comes to shove they'll increase the price to
       | get to profitability and have the market share to stick it out.
        
       | efortis wrote:
       | Increased by how much?
        
       | outside1234 wrote:
       | Uber is just a dumpster fire. I scheduled an airport ride with
       | them and each driver continuously just kept canceling it when
       | they saw where it was going. Can't imagine how bad it is for
       | someone going to a lower level neighborhood.
       | 
       | Can't count on it anymore - going back to manually calling taxis.
        
       | HappyTypist wrote:
       | I just do not understand how ridesharing cannot turn a profit.
       | Let's look at unit economics:
       | 
       | ~25% take rate on a ride ($15 average): $3.75 take
       | 
       | Payment processing: 2.5% + 30c = $0.68
       | 
       | Servers / datacenters: $0.20 (for a margin-sensitive business,
       | you should be colo'ing your own servers, or using cheap
       | alternatives like OVH/Hertzner)
       | 
       | Customer support: Automate as much as possible (auto refunds up
       | to a certain point; for lost items, connect directly to driver);
       | assume 1 in 50 rides require manual human support with a $3 cost
       | = $0.06 support cost per ride
       | 
       | Fraud/refunds: Assume a 2% fraud rate that cannot be reclaimed;
       | thus $0.30 cost for fraud. Refunds for things like driver
       | purposefully took a longer route can be clawed from the driver.
       | 
       | Gross COGS: $1.24
       | 
       | Gross profit: $2.51
       | 
       | What am I missing?? Marketing? Fuck marketing when you can't turn
       | a profit. Everyone knows about Uber or Lyft already, you need to
       | turn a profit, not waste $30 per CAC.
        
         | dsr_ wrote:
         | You're missing roughly 30,000 employees to run a service that,
         | at steady state, probably needs about 30 software developers
         | and a few hundred second or third level customer support folks,
         | with first level being handled by outsourced local-language
         | companies.
         | 
         | And then there's Uber self-driving. Uber AI; Uber electric
         | airplanes. Uber freight, Uber restaurant delivery, Uber grocery
         | delivery, Uber this and Uber that. Oh, and Uber scooters.
        
           | deeptote wrote:
        
             | oldgregg wrote:
             | hope they disinfect between rentals
        
             | dang wrote:
             | Please don't do this here.
        
           | polote wrote:
           | The Uber app alone would probably need much more than 30
           | developers, see here :
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25376346
        
             | michaelt wrote:
             | A lot of that is optional complexity, though.
             | 
             | Uber eats? Scooter integration? Mass transit support?
             | Scheduled rides? Commuter cards? If you were building the
             | app with 30 developers you'd simply not bother with those
             | features.
        
               | shukantpal wrote:
               | Why are you ignoring the regional differences & the other
               | stuff listed above those points in that post?
        
               | missedthecue wrote:
               | Companies like eBay have a global footprint and
               | send/receive money in dozens of countries. eBay has apps
               | for all devices and a website.
               | 
               | Uber has 3x the headcount as eBay.
        
               | true_religion wrote:
               | eBay can get away with relying on third parties for
               | advertising, selling, and transporting goods. They are
               | just an online marketplace.
               | 
               | Uber has to market themselves which needs local
               | expertise, if nothing else to liaise with a local PR
               | firm. Then they need local legal expertise to actually
               | operate in the country (eBay transactions happen online,
               | and the transport agency hired by the seller figures out
               | how to get the package to its destination). Uber then has
               | to have maps for every country it operates in, as well as
               | change their standards to match local expectations.
        
               | michaelt wrote:
               | I will agree that 'receipts' is part of the core product
               | and should be retained. I didn't mention it because I'm
               | sure we can agree it's within the capabilities of a
               | 30-person team!
               | 
               | I ignored the other stuff because I don't know WTF
               | "pickup special cases" or "on-trip experience business
               | logic" or "growth features" are. So I'm not informed
               | enough to guarantee they aren't part of the core product
               | offering - although you can probably guess my intuition
               | on the matter.
        
               | faeriechangling wrote:
               | I can only see giving up on Uber Eats as being foolhardy,
               | that is a profitable business with a solid business case,
               | yet lacking those other features would not really cause
               | me to prefer traditional taxicabs telephone dispatch over
               | using an app.
               | 
               | There's legitimately a reasonable argument that Uber
               | rides has a worse business case than Uber Eats. If I were
               | in Uber's shoes I would be clinging onto both.
        
               | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
               | That's interesting. Because of the aggressive expansion
               | from VC money they now have too much bloat making it more
               | difficult to be profitable.
        
           | hyperbovine wrote:
           | Just like Twitter is one guy hacking on RoR for two days...
           | we've heard this old canard before.
        
             | redisman wrote:
             | It's just some text on the web! And they wonder why
             | software engineers are bad at estimates
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | IIUC, Uber employs 2000 engineers. I'm not sure how that's
           | only 6% of the company.
           | 
           | If you're looking to trim fat - surprisingly - there might be
           | better opportunities outside of engineering.
        
         | paulcole wrote:
         | > What am I missing?
         | 
         | Don't forget about lawyers, compliance, lobbying, lawsuits,
         | etc., etc. It's also likely your assumptions are very wrong.
         | Just think about what will happen when people figure out you
         | auto-refund everything below a certain point.
         | 
         | > Fuck marketing
         | 
         | Possibly the bravest thing ever said on HN.
        
           | criddell wrote:
           | Uber has a compliance department?
        
         | seydor wrote:
         | But then Uber wouldn't be a Tech Company, they would be another
         | lowly profitable company.
        
         | hackernewds wrote:
         | driver cost is a lot more than $3.75. you think really drivers
         | are working for 75% of a $10 ride per active hour? they're
         | publicly measured to make 4x that
        
           | hyperhopper wrote:
           | He said Uber is taking 3.75. that means the driver is getting
           | 11.25.
           | 
           | You flipped the values. The driver is making a bunch, and
           | that's per ride, not per hour
        
         | boatsie wrote:
         | You're missing very large categories like G&A, R&D etc but just
         | look at their most recent SEC 10K or 10Q filings and you can
         | see where the money goes.
        
           | hyperhopper wrote:
           | I don't think he's missing that. Why does an app to connect
           | drivers to passengers that's been around for a decade need
           | R&D?
           | 
           | Now this is not about self driving or whatever else, it's
           | about a ride hailing app. The point is there is no reason
           | ride hailing can't be profitable.
           | 
           | Now, using any company to prop up r&d and investor hype for a
           | moonshot, that's a whole other idea...
        
         | tyingq wrote:
         | From Uber's Q2/2022 report:                 Revenue
         | 6854             Cost of Revenue             4026
         | Operations and Support       574       Sales and Marketing
         | 1263       Research and Development     587       General and
         | Administrative   632       Depreciation & Amortization  254
         | Total Costs                 7336
        
           | pid-1 wrote:
           | What does Cost of Revenue means?
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | tyingq wrote:
             | Mostly the payments to drivers.
        
           | kristjansson wrote:
           | Sales and marketing should be labeled price discrimination.
           | It's all incentives to match driver earnings and rider costs
           | to respective minima (maxima).
        
           | fishtoaster wrote:
           | I wonder (and am too lazy too try to find out) what portion
           | of sales and marketing is driver-focused. One could maybe
           | argue (as the grandparent did) that they should be spending
           | less on rider marketing, but marketing to get drivers in the
           | door seems pretty important. Dunno what their driver churn
           | rate is, but keeping the pool of drivers large is critical
           | for their service.
        
             | jelling wrote:
             | Bingo. Andrew Chen, formerly of Uber, says exactly that in
             | his excellent new book The Cold Start problem. The driver
             | side is the hard side of the market and must be constantly
             | tended.
        
               | redisman wrote:
               | Interesting because the taxi business had all that
               | figured out already. It was a profitable business and
               | drivers stuck around for decades. Does Uber have too much
               | overhead to ever be profitable?
        
               | airstrike wrote:
               | Didn't drive stick around because they dropped thousands
               | on medallions?
        
               | mattzito wrote:
               | Depends on the city/locale. In NYC most drivers don't own
               | their medallions, they drive shifts for someone else's
               | medallion.
               | 
               | In fact I've had a lot of conversations with Uber and
               | taxi drivers who started as taxi drivers, switched to
               | Uber when the bonuses were lucrative, and then some of
               | them switched back because they liked the predictability
               | of a fixed shift and not being ordered around by a
               | machine. Others felt exactly the opposite.
        
             | frankfrankfrank wrote:
             | From what I've come to understand you are right on the
             | money. All these "sharing economy" models rely heavily on
             | churn and burn like many other less than solid business
             | models like MLM.
             | 
             | I would love to see the breakdown of drivers and their
             | immigration status, because from what I can gather, what is
             | happening here is not any different than in the past of
             | America's history where the whole business model relies on
             | the exploitation of "immigrant" labor that knows no better
             | and is easily exploited, aka their unrealized labor value
             | is converted into profit, or better states, benefits and
             | riches for the executives.
        
           | mjevans wrote:
           | Slash Sales and Marketing by 50% and they'd be profitable.
        
             | josefx wrote:
             | If I remember correctly they spend a lot of money on
             | marketing campaigns against any law that could hurt their
             | business model. So slashing marketing might actually hurt
             | them even more.
        
             | underwater wrote:
             | Sales and marketing affect revenues, you know.
        
               | tomrod wrote:
               | Typically not enough to offset 50% of budget once the
               | brand is known.
        
               | endisneigh wrote:
               | based off what?
        
               | mjevans wrote:
               | At this point who hasn't heard of Uber?
               | 
               | They only need some occasional reminders that might be
               | targeted at the few people that haven't used or heard of
               | friends or family using an Uber before.
        
               | onion2k wrote:
               | _At this point who hasn 't heard of Uber?_
               | 
               | Marketing is as much about keeping your customers from
               | going to rival providers as it is about finding new
               | customers. If you don't want people to leave you need to
               | remind them why you're better than the exciting new
               | company that's spending VC money to take your market
               | share.
        
               | lordnacho wrote:
               | Couldn't you say the same for Coca Cola? Yet I'm fairly
               | sure that maintenance budget is fairly big.
        
               | treis wrote:
               | Coke is somewhat of an impulse purchase. At least it
               | needs to be in your mind to buy it at the grocery store.
               | 
               | Conversely, I'm not going to take an Uber ride tomorrow
               | because they showed me an ad today. When I need to get
               | somewhere I'll look at my options and choose the best. So
               | long as Uber meets the minimum level of me being aware of
               | it then theyre good.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Coke (and Pepsi) marketing is mainly concerned with
               | affirming that drinking soda makes you sexy and keeping
               | restaurants et al from changing their supplier.
        
               | robertlagrant wrote:
               | "Marketing is crucial" is the most important marketing
               | message.
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | Marketing is not what you think it means.
             | 
             | It's a clever way to disguise their unit economics to look
             | better.
             | 
             | Their marketing budget is mostly going to pay drivers.
             | 
             | Put another way - you could be saying - why not pay drivers
             | EVEN less? Well, they're paying them the least they can
             | already. You can be sure of that.
             | 
             | If they did actually paid the drivers more and not disguise
             | it as marketing - then their unit economics wouldn't look
             | good - and when the business as a whole doesn't look good
             | either - that's not a good look.
        
             | frankfrankfrank wrote:
             | They can't, that "S&M" is heavily focused on getting low
             | information drivers into the service by smoke and mirrors
             | about how wonderful it is to drive for them. They have to
             | keep the rate of influx of new drivers at least above the
             | rate of people realizing what a bad deal it is for them,
             | aka churn.
        
           | tyingq wrote:
           | Fyi, should say Q1/22, the report from March/22.
        
         | thraway3837 wrote:
        
           | christophilus wrote:
           | I've been in the industry for 20 years. Colo or even running
           | your own datacenters. Makes sense at their size.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | Please don't cross into personal attack in comments. Making
           | substantive points without swipes is essential to the kind of
           | forum we're hoping to have here.
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
           | astrange wrote:
           | Uber doesn't make money. The bigger their enterprise is the
           | less money they make. They should be firing anyone who says
           | they need more complicated systems to scale when the idea
           | could run on a PC under their desk.
        
         | rdxm wrote:
        
         | tonyhb wrote:
         | Uber's take can average ~45% depending on the day:
         | https://missionlocal.org/2021/07/as-rideshare-prices-skyrock...
         | 
         | I agree and am not quite sure where it's going (other than
         | software).
        
           | throwoutway wrote:
           | They have nearly 30,000 employees, mostly SDEs from what I
           | understand. Its been discussed (and rationalized) here, but I
           | still don't understand how that many are necessary. I read
           | somewhere else that their engineering tend to need to rewrite
           | their software every two years to keep up with the scale, so
           | maybe they need them? it still seems insane to me.
           | 
           | Lyft only has 4500 employees
        
             | ProjectBarks wrote:
             | Uber has 3500 ish engineers. Then a huge amount of
             | operations personal.
             | 
             | Best source I could find:
             | https://www.themuse.com/profiles/uber/team/engineering
        
               | mathgladiator wrote:
               | This blows my mind. I used to use Uber a bunch, and I
               | built relationships with drivers such that I could just
               | text them and get a ride at a certain time for a
               | discount.
               | 
               | Ultimately, I wonder if Uber is prime to be disrupted if
               | drivers got together and funded a few engineers to build
               | a city-scale service for the hailing and payment aspect.
        
               | nobody9999 wrote:
               | >Ultimately, I wonder if Uber is prime to be disrupted if
               | drivers got together and funded a few engineers to build
               | a city-scale service for the hailing and payment aspect.
               | 
               | Apparently a whole bunch of folks are trying to do just
               | that.
               | 
               | I was going to provide just one example, but a web
               | search[0] shows a whole bunch of these efforts in a
               | variety of locales. As such, I just provided the web
               | search results here.
               | 
               | [0] https://html.duckduckgo.com/html?q=ride%20share%20coo
               | perativ...
        
               | dopidopHN wrote:
               | 2 city unions did that in France. In marseille and Lyon.
               | 
               | Last time I tried the Lyon app it was barebone and not
               | really up to par with Uber by a large margin. But still.
        
               | nerdponx wrote:
               | My impression is that this is what the Curb and Arro apps
               | were supposed to be. I don't know anybody who uses them.
        
         | rzz3 wrote:
         | You're missing the cost of engineering, for one thing. Also
         | "host Uber at OVH" isn't remotely realistic.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | For a simplified version of the app with arguably no worse
           | user experience, it's not THAT farfetched.
           | 
           | Uber has an absurd amount of logging & analytics.
           | 
           | If the app was simply drop a pin, get a ride - it wouldn't be
           | that crazy.
           | 
           | Uber has 3.9M drivers world wide. There's probably very
           | rarely more than 1M drivers active at any time. Probably less
           | than 300k people looking for a ride at the vast majority of
           | times.
           | 
           | Assuming you can update the driver's location 1 time per
           | minute - that's ~1.5B requests per day - less than 25k
           | requests per second (including user bookings).
           | 
           | That's like ~2TB of bandwidth per day. That's less than $200
           | per day. Almost everyone spends more than 5% of their cloud
           | bill on bandwidth. Meaning, the rest of a drastically
           | simplified (but nearly equally useful) Uber _could_ run for
           | ~$4000 per day in server expenses.
           | 
           | That's a $1.4M / year data center. Uber has revenues of
           | >$11B.
           | 
           | They _could_ be making a lot of money. They just aren 't
           | because they're spending AT LEAST 50x more on servers and
           | product engineering than they NEED to.
           | 
           | They paid for growth for a long time. They have a monopoly
           | now. There's not a lot of growth left to get. At some point
           | the axe will come down.
           | 
           | Lyft is even worse. They're ~1/3rd the size.
        
             | frankfrankfrank wrote:
             | It's also a denial strategy. The bleeding edge that also
             | forces your competitors out of the market because they
             | cannot get past the network effect and name recognition
             | hurdle is worth its weight in gold.
             | 
             | Most people will say they're going to get an Uber, even if
             | they end up having to use Lyft, no? Ubers, as well as
             | others', expressed strategy has long been not only first
             | mover, but also monopolization of all aspects of their
             | space, expressly anti-competitive. Part of that is not only
             | being the leader, first to mind, but also draining the
             | enemy/competitor's resources and undermining their efforts
             | to even challenge you. It's a total market domination
             | strategy that shouldn't even be allowed, but they've also
             | paid off politicians and captured government in other ways
             | too, so don't expect anything from there either. There used
             | to be other ride sharing services, I don't even know if
             | they exist anymore, but even before the Great
             | Monopolization, aka COVID, they were barely scraping by on
             | crumbs in a few local markets while the likes of Uber
             | worked in basically every market, especially in the high
             | spending business travel and entertainment segments.
        
             | joneholland wrote:
        
               | ForHackernews wrote:
               | I'll build you a better, leaner, Uber-clone for the low
               | low bargain price of a mere billion dollars. VCs PM for
               | term sheets.
        
               | throw10920 wrote:
               | Comments like _this_ , boring and dismissive and with
               | absolutely no effort put into them (often responding to
               | one that _does_ have a lot of effort in it), are _not_
               | big HN energy and don 't belong here. Zero value.
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | It's a horrible business - why would I even want to enter
               | it? And if I was insane and did, why would anyone use my
               | Uber app?
               | 
               | Uber is a monopoly that already has all the drivers and
               | spent $10B+ to aquire them - plus all the riders -
               | they're already trained to open that app - already have
               | it downloaded. No one can compete with that without
               | spending $1B+ - at which point - you'd need a 50% margin
               | for years just to return the value. Maybe I'm uncreative,
               | but I cannot think of a worse business to enter.
               | 
               | It's equally amusing to me that you seem to assume Uber
               | is efficient just because it's a public company.
               | 
               | Sure, GE and IBM don't waste money either.
        
               | mathgladiator wrote:
               | It is a terrible business at large scale.
               | 
               | A smaller and leaner model could work at small scale by
               | focusing on via drivers focusing on their returns with
               | word of mouth marketing.
               | 
               | If you use Uber a bunch, then it is a great way for good
               | drivers to get repeat business privately. A simple
               | platform which is driver-friendly which focused on the
               | whale customers (like myself when I was spending $500/mo+
               | for commuting) could squeeze the Uber even more. When I
               | started working with a few drivers via text, I was able
               | to save money whilst the driver made more money
        
             | nathanvanfleet wrote:
             | Surely you don't think a modern and complex app requires
             | just a single API endpoint that triggers once a minute? And
             | that it's that simple a thing for the driver/ passenger?
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | Surely you don't think there's another endpoint that's
               | getting hit an order of magnitude more to change the
               | point?
               | 
               | Multiply by 3 for redundancy & availability. Multiply by
               | 3 for other endpoints. You're not even 10x...
               | 
               | And this was not Uber as it exists. This is a simplified
               | version of Uber that gives the user a nearly equal
               | experience.
        
             | GauntletWizard wrote:
             | You're way overoptimistic in your expenses calculation -
             | Maintaining a "real-time" app is 100x more complex than
             | that.
             | 
             | 100x, bringing their opex to hundreds of millions on
             | billions of revenue. They should still be able to cut the
             | fat and actually turn a handy profit, but they won't.
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | No one needs real-time (above 1 minute) driver locations.
               | 
               | Riders never see the driver's location before booking.
               | 
               | Uber doesn't need the exact location to get a decent
               | match.
               | 
               | And anyway - they send the ride to several drivers and
               | the lowest / first bidder wins.
        
               | edmundsauto wrote:
               | What is the set of information that makes you say this?
               | Because I would put money that Uber's data team has run
               | an experiment with lower realtime status updates
               | (realtime is expensive, these companies aren't filled
               | with idiots, they test things). And based on that, I
               | think it's reasonable to assume that critical metrics are
               | negatively impacted by not having realtime updates.
               | 
               | So I'm curious if you have any knowledge, or if what you
               | are saying is "I don't need realtime", or perhaps more
               | charitably, "I can't imagine realtime being valuable to
               | users". I push back on the 2nd, and I strong push back on
               | the idea that someone with can reach the conclusion that
               | Uber is wasting money on things that don't drive user
               | value.
               | 
               | Unless, of course, you work/worked there and worked on
               | these projects, and saw firsthand that Uber decided to
               | waste a bunch of money internally.
        
               | lumost wrote:
               | In a major metro like Boston 1 minute further down the
               | road could mean a 5 minute longer wait. I think your
               | point stands however with 6x traffic increase to once
               | every 10 seconds.
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | You only need to update the location if the driver is
               | moving. IIUC, most drivers are stagnant while they wait
               | for rides.
               | 
               | They're in the business of saving gas. Not cruising
               | around idly while they wait for a ride.
               | 
               | Sure - some drivers are finishing a trip nearby. But you
               | know the route they are taking...
        
           | HappyTypist wrote:
           | Okay, OVH is not realistic, but at Uber scale, you can
           | certainly roll your own data-centres and get costs lower
           | than, or similar to OVH, even when including the cost of
           | sysadmin and maintenance.
           | 
           | Yes, it means you won't get all the shiny quality of life
           | services offered by cloud providers, but you're in a _margin
           | sensitive business_. Deal with it. Optimize every cost.
           | 
           | Also, you don't need expensive engineers re-inventing the
           | most basic things (I know Uber had a huge not-invented-here
           | syndrome). Use the boring tools for the job. Only reinvent
           | what is necessary. You don't need engineers practicing
           | resume-driven-development.
        
             | bthrn wrote:
             | Uber _does_ use its own data centers.
        
         | rockarage wrote:
         | It can turn a profit, but not the sort of profit the investors
         | and top stake holders want i.e. Microsoft and Google type
         | margins and profit.
        
       | modeless wrote:
       | I recently got a ridiculous coupon code for 50% off Postmates
       | (Uber Eats) orders, when I did a Google search for Postmates. 5
       | orders, up to $100 savings on each order, and the code worked on
       | my wife's account too so we get 10 orders. For weeks I've been
       | ordering $200 meals from fancy steakhouses and paying $100, with
       | leftovers for days. Somehow they haven't stopped subsidizing
       | their customers yet.
       | 
       | The code is FEAST if anyone cares to try it. Probably expired by
       | now. It doesn't seem to work on Uber Eats, only Postmates.com on
       | desktop web.
        
         | 0x53 wrote:
         | Wow, just looked this up and this is insane. Guess I'm gonna be
         | eating out for a bit. Thanks for the tip
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | If they stop subsidizing, then revenue growth may slow, stop,
         | or turn negative. If the latter happened to Uber/Lyft for even
         | a quarter, they may struggle to continue operations. After all,
         | what's worse than a business losing billions of dollars? A
         | shrinking business losing billions of dollars.
        
       | tablespoon wrote:
       | So have they hit price-parity with traditional taxis, yet?
        
         | jesusofnazarath wrote:
        
       | ravenstine wrote:
       | I've been noticing more drivers going independent. When I landed
       | at LAX recently and waited at the taxi area for a Lyft, there
       | were a bunch of drivers coming up and offering people rides, but
       | not through Uber or Lyft. I thought "why not", took one of these
       | independent rides home, and paid the guy through Square. It
       | wasn't a "cheap" ride, but it was cheaper than the Lyft ride I
       | cancelled and I'm sure he made a greater profit than through a
       | "ride share" company.
       | 
       | That's just one example, but I've noticed this drastically
       | increase in the last year. Whether I'm at the airport, a train
       | station, or a bus depot, I've been seeing way more independent
       | drivers.
       | 
       | What's stopping more drivers from doing this? If it's the "trust"
       | aspect that comes from Uber, then surely there's some system that
       | can meet us halfway that doesn't apparently need large sums of VC
       | money and high fees but at least provides trust and safety for
       | riders.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | Doesn't that make you an illegal taxi?
        
           | paulcole wrote:
           | What do you think Uber was for years and years?
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | It's different when you're a large company with a legal
             | team doing something not clearly illegal - than when you're
             | a single individual doing something clearly illegal.
             | 
             | You didn't have to have a taxi medallion to be a black car
             | driver and pick people up at locations upon request -
             | which, originally, is what Uber was, exactly.
             | 
             | The whole point of a taxi medallion is to be able to pick
             | people up off the street - which is what these independent
             | drivers at the airport and train stops are doing.
        
               | paulcole wrote:
               | > It's different when you're a large company with a legal
               | team doing something not clearly illegal - than when
               | you're a single individual doing something clearly
               | illegal.
               | 
               | If this is sarcasm it's too subtle for me to recognize.
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | It's not.
               | 
               | Black cars picked up people upon request. They weren't
               | taxis. That was Uber's core business. It wasn't
               | regulated.
               | 
               | They don't pick people up off the street. That's the taxi
               | business. It's heavily regulated.
               | 
               | It was never clear Uber was an illegal business, and it's
               | never been ruled that it is.
        
         | brtkdotse wrote:
         | I'm all for scrappy bootstrapers but the middle aged adult in
         | me just sees a licensing and insurance nightmare.
        
         | almost_usual wrote:
         | There's the risk they take you somewhere and rob you. Happened
         | to someone I know in NYC.
        
       | loceng wrote:
       | So does this mean it's going to begin to become cheaper to use
       | the services of old taxi organizations, who arguably aren't going
       | to have the shareholders to appease to to pad revenues with
       | profits?
       | 
       | I really think, in all cases of online platforms, that laws
       | requiring the platform to be transparent with all costs -
       | including how much they keep as a platform, how much they give
       | the actual driver, how much the restaurant gets (if doing
       | delivery) etc. would be highly beneficial, if not necessary, to
       | not only society but also to potential investors.
       | 
       | E.g. How sustainable are their prices, and are the billions
       | invested simply subsidizing lower fares to outcompete based on
       | price for a temporary time while fighting over to capture as much
       | of a market (artificially and temporarily?) until the
       | shareholders come knocking asking for the profit tap to get
       | turned on?
        
         | scarface74 wrote:
         | Why? It was "transparent" from the day that Uber and Lyft went
         | public that they weren't profitable and losing billions .
         | 
         | They were always Ponzi schemes and retail investors who naively
         | believed the hype were the "biggest fools".
        
           | Spooky23 wrote:
           | Wait a minute! That was just temporary while the service
           | hyperscaled. I read on HN that Elon Musk's fully self aware
           | self-driving would take over from drivers starting in 2019
           | and cost like $9,000!
        
           | loceng wrote:
           | It's the VC-finance industrial complex, where the incentives
           | aren't aligned with the sources of the money.
           | 
           | Arguably being transparent at the per-transaction level which
           | allow everyone and their mother to then do simple math to
           | understand that such a business model isn't sustainable - but
           | they're not currently paying enough attention, just in a very
           | shallow way - they see Uber or Lyft on the news plenty, maybe
           | use the services themself - until it's too late.
           | 
           | All of this should be educating people giving their money to
           | institutions or stockbrokers to make sure their money and
           | whomever they're giving the power to dictate where it goes is
           | aligned with long-term results, and arguably not at all on
           | per-transaction buy/sell actions.
           | 
           | I think a lot of our problems today stem from there being
           | such an abundance of wealth/riches that enough people could
           | become lazy and relatively inattentive with their money,
           | blindly trusting others without understanding the underlying
           | mechanisms enough - and perhaps blindly believing government
           | institutions like the SEC would protect them - instead
           | perhaps trusting long-time existing brand names as some sort
           | of measure of trust.
           | 
           | Bitcoin et al are the next evolution the VC-finance
           | industrial complex has latched onto quite successfully, so
           | far.
        
             | scarface74 wrote:
             | For the most part, unsophisticated investors aren't buying
             | individual stocks. They are buying mutual funds and most of
             | them are buying index funds. Neither Uber or Lyft are part
             | of the S&P.
             | 
             | Only "qualified investors" are allowed to buy pre-IPO stock
             | and they should know what they are doing. If they lost
             | money, it's on them.
             | 
             | Even if you did what you suggested, how should a company
             | allocate fixed expenses? Allocate per mile?
        
         | Finnucane wrote:
         | Uber cratered the value of the taxi medallion. The main benefit
         | the medallion gave you was the right to pick people up on the
         | street, unlike other kinds of car services that you had to call
         | for. Since anyone using a taxi could probably afford a cell
         | phone and a credit card, taxis were vulnerable. Does this mean
         | that the cost of entry into the taxi business is lower? Sure.
         | Will it matter? WHo knows.
        
           | loceng wrote:
           | These industries usually get captured via regulation imposed
           | by lobbyists of the biggest players, to make the barrier of
           | entry more costly to keep out potentially new entrants.
           | 
           | I know a few taxi drivers who are medallion holders - which
           | are now worthless - they of course have been put in a shit
           | position, and the Cities don't particularly care anymore
           | because whatever lobby structure that got the medallions in
           | place to begin with basically no longer exists - they're not
           | necessary to get today's lobbyist funded politicians into
           | play, positions of power.
        
       | d23 wrote:
       | Seems unsurprising. The check had to come due eventually. It'll
       | be interesting to see whether riders keep using it in enough
       | volume to keep them afloat.
        
         | tootie wrote:
         | Aside from them spending money on boondoggle after boondoggle,
         | these guys both still have no moat. They had to burn a ton of
         | cash buying up competitors and there's absolutely nothing
         | stopping a third player from entering and eating their lunches.
         | The core premise of hailing taxis via GPS is very simple and
         | very appealing. The could have run these as lean, low-margin
         | businesses and earned a tidy profit forever, but instead they
         | decided to play the valuation game.
        
           | Spooky23 wrote:
           | It wasn't about taxis, man, it was changing everything.
           | 
           | Listen to the old Ben Thompson podcasts from when Uber was
           | taking over life itself. Private cars, self driving, blah
           | blah blah. Why go to a restaurant when Uber can fly one to
           | you?
        
         | walrus01 wrote:
         | It'll be interesting to see in a number of cities where
         | traditional medallion licensed yellow taxis almost entirely
         | disappeared, and the drivers went to go be Uber or Lyft for a
         | period of some years, how much of it reverts back to the
         | traditional system of taxis. I can foresee something like a lot
         | of heavily used 300,000 mile Honda Accords with all city miles
         | on them getting sold cheap. Buyer beware.
        
           | tootie wrote:
           | The medallion system was completely broken before the ride
           | apps appeared. Traditional car services were reliable and
           | easy to reach via phone. A lot of them have still survived.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | It's more expensive but I always use a traditional car
             | service to get to the airport. Super-reliable, comfortable,
             | clean, good drivers. They're always pre-scheduled (which is
             | fine for the airport) but I've never had problems with
             | getting them to make changes when flight stuff happens.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | What are they going to do when they can't get parts for
               | those Lincolns?
        
               | walrus01 wrote:
               | the same thing all the car services in NYC are doing now
               | with luxury SUVs with leather seats and such? you rarely
               | see an actual _town car_ now.
        
               | bsder wrote:
               | Every "car service" I know of has changed over to some
               | level of electric/hybrid car.
               | 
               | The gasoline economics were far too compelling even
               | before this round of gas price gouging.
        
               | walrus01 wrote:
               | In Vancouver BC where petrol costs have always been
               | considerably higher than the other side of the border in
               | WA, taxis switched almost entirely to Prius as far back
               | as 2004. Even before that it was very common to see CNG
               | modified taxis.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Why would it be any different from auto/auto part supply
               | chains in general? (Which, yes, from personal experience
               | are a considerable issue at the moment.)
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | It's different because they stopped making Lincolns, so
               | the clock is running.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | There are plenty of other vehicles. Yes, the limo
               | companies liked the unibody limos but there's no shortage
               | of different models they can use. I'm certainly not
               | especially picky in general.
        
       | seydor wrote:
       | So they made a full circle ... back to taxis?
        
       | walrus01 wrote:
       | > The fundamental problem Uber and Lyft keep running into is that
       | most people are not willing to pay the fares it would cost to run
       | a profitable taxi service with the overhead Uber and Lyft require
       | 
       | [surprisedpikachu.gif]
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | You mean this was all a scam to enrich early shareholders and
         | incinerate $30B+ in capital!?
         | 
         |  _pearl clutching intensifies_
        
           | carapace wrote:
           | You left out the part where they're siphoning capital from
           | their drivers:
           | 
           | > Here is the thing about Uber and Lyft (and much of the
           | "sharing economy").
           | 
           | > They don't pay the cost of their capital.
           | 
           | > The wages they pay to their drivers are less than the
           | depreciation of the cars and the expense of keeping the
           | drivers fed, housed, and healthy. They pay less than minimum
           | wage in most markets, and, in most markets, that is not
           | enough to pay the costs of a car plus a human.
           | 
           | > These business models are ways of draining capital from the
           | economy and putting them into the hands of a few investors
           | and executives. They prey on desperate people who need money
           | now, even if the money is insufficient to pay their total
           | costs. Drivers are draining their own reserves to get cash
           | now, but, hey, they gotta eat and pay the bills.
           | 
           | https://www.ianwelsh.net/the-market-fairy-will-not-solve-
           | the...
        
             | walrus01 wrote:
             | yeah sadly it seems to be a scam on the people who don't do
             | the fully-loaded cost per mile of operating a modern sedan
             | in city traffic, including the purchase cost of the car,
             | repairs and maintenance, fuel, tires, subtracting the
             | eventual small resale value of a 250,000+ mile "used up"
             | ex-Uber car.
        
           | moralestapia wrote:
           | always_has_been.jpg
        
           | walrus01 wrote:
           | Writing as somebody who was working in network engineering
           | and IT/tech stuff during the dotcom 1.0 VC funded boom and
           | crash from 1997-2002 none of this is particularly surprising.
           | 
           | it sure has been amusing to watch, however.
           | 
           | maybe we can pay for future uber and lyft rides in beenz and
           | flooz
        
           | dotcoma wrote:
           | Yes, exactly.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | The incineration was just a byproduct.
           | 
           | I do wonder in so many of these cases, how much is:
           | 
           | - Completely cynical fleece the suckers
           | 
           | - Irrational optimism that things will be different because
           | self-driving or whatever
           | 
           | - Fake it till you make it (which is related but slightly
           | different)
        
           | IgorPartola wrote:
           | More or less, though it did move the needle forward. Now most
           | taxi services are easier to use thanks to Uber. But they were
           | always in the business of selling dollar bills for $0.90.
           | Soon as they want to make a profit it turns out to be more
           | expensive than running a local taxi service and they aren't
           | price competitive. In the meantime taxi services got their
           | own apps/app integrations while maintaining their competitive
           | advantage.
        
             | pjmlp wrote:
             | Depends on where one leaves.
             | 
             | I am yet to board a Uber and have used taxis quite a lot in
             | the last 30 years.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | alphabettsy wrote:
       | This was inevitable without automation right?
        
         | Finnucane wrote:
         | Inevitable even with automation. As the article points out,
         | automation would mean they'd have to actually own, maintain,
         | insure, etc. the cars.
        
           | AlexandrB wrote:
           | Automation was always a form of "investor story time". Going
           | from a software company to a logistics company that has to
           | buy, store, and maintain a fleet of vehicles across hundreds
           | of cities was never going to happen even if they figured out
           | full self driving.
        
       | ergocoder wrote:
       | Western countries have such a weird problem
       | 
       | A seemingly boring business seems unviable.
       | 
       | For example, food is expensive, and we have to tip, but
       | restaurant is tough business, and the servers don't make enough
       | for living. Like why the heck is this not viable?
        
         | alar44 wrote:
         | Well, that's just not true.
         | 
         | I'm in the Midwest and a server at a decent restaurant can pull
         | in $300/night in tips.
        
           | ergocoder wrote:
           | I have been told that we tip because servers can't make a
           | living.
           | 
           | If we don't tip, we are killing them.
           | 
           | Why do we tip 20% again? It seems like we can tip 5% and the
           | servers would still make bank.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | slaw wrote:
       | At markets where Uber has competition. I know Brazil and Mexico.
       | DiDi pays driver more and charges client less. So DiDi takes less
       | cut than Uber and is still profitable.
        
       | daenz wrote:
       | Are traditional taxicab services still alive? How did they
       | survive until this time?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | They win bids for Medicaid car services and airport
         | concessions.
         | 
         | Plus, there's a 50 year old woman making $19/hour to smoke
         | cigarettes and dispatch cars, a mechanic, and a bookkeeper.
        
         | woodruffw wrote:
         | They're still alive (albeit damaged) in NYC, and in most large
         | cities I've visited. The answer is simple: they don't have
         | thousands of expensive software engineers doing god-knows-what
         | as overhead.
        
           | richrichardsson wrote:
           | Or all the servers etc.
           | 
           | They just needed a (usually tiny) little office and 1 person
           | to answer the phone.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | >They just needed a (usually tiny) little office and 1
             | person to answer the phone.
             | 
             | That also makes for terrible ux. One of the things
             | ridesharing apps got right was the ux, ie.
             | 
             | 1. being able to hail a cab via app, and see its ETA in
             | real time
             | 
             | 2. being able to pay with credit card, without fear that
             | the machine "broke"
             | 
             | 3. a rating system to weed out bad drivers
             | 
             | 4. after-ride support
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | All of these things can be (and are) true _and_ it can be
               | true that Uber and Lyft appear to have an order of
               | magnitude more engineers than they need.
        
         | pigtailgirl wrote:
         | -- in my city the remaining cab companies have contracts with
         | hospitals/the city/companies - can always find a cab outside
         | the dialysis clinic - when I asked why a driver told me the
         | dispatch company accepts a chit from the clinic --
        
         | bdcravens wrote:
         | Sometimes they offer a better service. Flew to Honolulu, called
         | Uber. No one grabbed it for 15 minutes. I grabbed a cab that
         | was there at the airport.
         | 
         | Also many cab services have started leveraging apps like zTrip.
        
           | bitwize wrote:
           | zTrip sounds identical to an app I envisioned in 2010 I
           | called "Yo Taxi!" It would take your phone-reported GPS
           | location and send it out to one of the affiliated taxi
           | services (depending on who serves that location, cost, etc.)
           | who would dispatch a cab to that point.
           | 
           | I'm kind of glad "Yo Taxi!" exists in some form now, what
           | with the wheels (figuratively) falling off Uber and Lyft.
        
         | marcinzm wrote:
         | In my experience by cutting corners wherever possible but that
         | leaves a bad reputation. Cars that were beat up, sometimes just
         | didn't show up, no GPS or knowledge of streets, cash payments
         | to avoid some taxes, avoiding unprofitable locations or rides,
         | etc. Uber and Lyft aimed for a better brand image but that is
         | at odds with cheap costs.
        
           | woodruffw wrote:
           | I've never had a beat up taxi, but NYC might be an outlier in
           | that regard (due to the yellowcab fleet + TLC regulation).
           | The part about avoiding unprofitable locations is certainly
           | true, however.
           | 
           | OTOH, I've taken a decent number of sketchy Lyft and Uber
           | rides: ones where the driver was clearly not the person on
           | the account (possibly a relative?), where the car didn't
           | match, etc. All in medium to large US cities.
        
             | Spooky23 wrote:
             | A lot of people pool these services.
             | Uber/lyft/DoorDash/etc.
             | 
             | There's a ton of hustles. Sometimes they'll hang a bunch of
             | phones in a tree near a strategic location to get gigs.
             | 
             | It gets to the real problem. If you get in an accident in
             | an Uber and get hurt, there's a high likelihood that you're
             | fucked.
        
             | dagw wrote:
             | NYC has some of the most beat up taxis I've seen, only
             | place I've been that compares is probably Cairo.
        
             | marcinzm wrote:
             | The comparison to Uber in NYC isn't yellow cabs but the
             | call taxi companies which were as I described. Yellow taxis
             | were non-existent outside Manhattan and even then couldn't
             | be scheduled conveniently. Even the yellow cabs often
             | refused to pick up people based on appearance/race, refused
             | to drop off outside Manhattan and had conveniently broken
             | credit card readers. That's not even getting into the true
             | "gypsy" cabs (as they were called) which had no TLC
             | licenses.
        
               | vips7L wrote:
               | > refused to drop off outside Manhattan
               | 
               | I recently had a taxi refuse to take me from the Vegas
               | Strip to a friends house on the North side. It's because
               | they'll have to drive back to the city center without a
               | ride.
        
           | bitwize wrote:
           | In the Boston area, taxi drivers often ask you two things:
           | 
           | 1) Where you goin'?
           | 
           | 2) How do you get there?
           | 
           | Which is... if you're new to the area or going someplace new,
           | how do you answer that second one?
        
             | rzz3 wrote:
             | That's to scam you. Either you know how to get there, or
             | you don't and they'll take the long way to run up the
             | meter.
        
       | tunesmith wrote:
       | I wonder how much of this transfers to the music industry. It's
       | much more complicated than the taxi industry, but in broad
       | strokes, VC-subsidized companies basically undercut the
       | combination of record publishers and musicians, setting the price
       | and revenue-per-listen to levels much lower than they would have
       | been without subsidization. But it's also been happening for
       | longer, so I think that it's more like as-if all the taxi drivers
       | had already been driven out of the business and the taxis junked.
       | With taxis, you know if there are no rides available, but with
       | music, you don't really realize all the great music that isn't
       | being written.
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | I always figured by now there would be some sort of centralized
       | "trust" entity, ala credit bureaus, where you can build apps on
       | top of that using the same "trust".
       | 
       | Supposing such a thing existed, then drivers could simply offer
       | their own driving services by themselves. Perhaps that's the next
       | evolution here.
       | 
       | I used to drive a pretty boring, but predictable route in the
       | morning and in the late afternoon. I would've loved to drive
       | people who are near my destination both ways, but without anyway
       | to trust them, no way.
       | 
       | Surely someone has tried to implement this before and failed and
       | I just don't know?
        
         | curiousllama wrote:
         | It totally exists, it's just not a tech company
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slugging
        
           | endisneigh wrote:
           | huh. I've never heard of this. thanks for the link. though,
           | what I'm describing ideally could be beyond driving. the same
           | sort of "trust" would also be helpful for selecting someone
           | to take care of your children, clean your house, etc.
        
             | BoiledCabbage wrote:
             | I swear this country is going to try to implement all of
             | the worst aspects of China's authoritatiran system and
             | claim it's all 'ok' because it's capitalist and to serve
             | business instead of the govt.
             | 
             | Implementing a Chinese style societal "social credit"
             | system is not a good thing. Even if it would make it a bit
             | cheaper to undercut Uber. Making every action and
             | interation you have in life tracked and rated is not a net
             | plus. The constant visibility and permanance of everything
             | is part of why middle school and high schoolers are having
             | such trouble now. They can't develop as teenagers as they
             | are already part way to living in '1984' with every action
             | tracked via social media.
             | 
             | https://www.businessinsider.com/china-social-credit-
             | system-p...
             | 
             | > The Chinese Communist Party has been constructing a moral
             | ranking system for years that will monitor the behavior of
             | its enormous population -- and rank them all based on their
             | "social credit."
             | 
             | > But at the moment the system is piecemeal and voluntary,
             | though the plan is for it to eventually be mandatory and
             | unified across the nation, with each person given their own
             | unique code used to measure their social credit score in
             | real-time, per Wired.
             | 
             | > The exact methodology is a secret -- but examples of
             | infractions include bad driving, smoking in non-smoking
             | zones, buying too many video games, and posting fake news
             | online, specifically about terrorist attacks or airport
             | security.
             | 
             | > Authorities banned people from purchasing flights 17.5
             | million times by the end of 2018, according to the National
             | Public Credit Information Centre, as the Guardian reported.
             | 
             | > And in July of 2018, a Chinese university denied an
             | incoming student his spot because the student's father had
             | a bad social credit score for failing to repay a loan.
             | 
             | *Please* fellow tech people. Whether you work in ML, DS, or
             | software for a random business or open source project
             | please think through the societal impact and long-run end
             | state of what you propose and produce. We really have to
             | move past the days of "I'm just an engineer I'll only focus
             | on the tech and ignore the impact of my work on society".
             | Implementing China's societal wide social credit system is
             | a bad path. And of course the argument will be, "well
             | anyone who doesn't want to use it doesn't have to". And
             | then that will turn into, "well most companies offer
             | discounts if you use it." Then to "well most companies
             | offer higher rates if you don't use it". Then "most
             | companies won't serve you if you don't use it". Then it's
             | universal in society just as if govt mandated, but people
             | will consider it less horrific because it was slipery slope
             | implemented vs via a mandate.
        
               | endisneigh wrote:
               | It's not about capitalism - it's about trust. If you're
               | meeting up with strangers how exactly can you do so
               | safely?
        
               | hackernewds wrote:
               | Through a credit system that is centralized, just like
               | China's credit system. Except it's not even run by
               | elected officials so there's no representation.
               | 
               | it's a terrible idea and Boiled Cabbage makes a very good
               | point
        
               | endisneigh wrote:
               | So you're against the idea of Uber, eBay, Care, Lyft,
               | etc? Since what I'm describing already exists. Not to
               | mention the credit bureaus. You'd prefer arbitrariness?
               | If anything a single place for the trust would be better
               | as it would be more thoroughly examined.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | Are there any open source solutions that could enable this to
           | be offered as a non profit platform?
        
           | synu wrote:
           | That was really common at Microsoft in the late 90s (and may
           | still be) to be able to use the HOV lanes when driving from
           | Redmond to Seattle. It worked well because you were picking
           | up colleagues, which sort of established a certain level of
           | trust.
        
             | filoleg wrote:
             | I don't know how it is now, because I've left since then.
             | But in pre-covid times, Microsoft was pushing/advertising
             | this carpool app they partnered with called Scoop. Similar
             | idea, except it can include workers from other companies as
             | well, and it isn't for making money for the driver, but
             | just to cover the cost of gas + to be able to use the HOV
             | lane.
             | 
             | As a passenger, you schedule your approximate time to go to
             | work (or from work, or both, depending on how you want to
             | use it), and the app matches you with a driver for the next
             | morning who is going to about the same area, but maybe a
             | different building. So they pick you up, drop you off, and
             | go along their merry way, and you are only out of about
             | $5-7 or so (that was the rate for going from Seattle
             | downtown to Redmond, which is about a factor of 6-8 cheaper
             | than an uber/lyft was at the time).
             | 
             | I used it as both a driver (a few times) and as a passenger
             | (many times). Feels like a pretty great idea that worked
             | well. If I was driving, I didn't mind a 5 minute reroute to
             | pick up or drop off someone nearby, and those $7 + (more
             | importantly) HOV lane access were totally worth it. I
             | estimated that the HOV lane access alone saved me
             | significantly more time than I lost by going out of my way
             | to pick up/drop off the passenger. And the fact that those
             | people are guaranteed to not be randos, but either other
             | MSFT employees or employees of other nearby companies made
             | it much more trustworthy for me (the app required work
             | email to sign up).
             | 
             | Obviously, this wasn't meant to be an uber/lyft
             | alternative, as it is only useful for going to/from work
             | and only during specific days/hours. And you gotta
             | schedule/get matched with a driver the night before, you
             | cannot just wake up and spontaneously get a ride. Which
             | makes sense given the context, because people typically
             | want to have their commute to work planned the night
             | before.
        
             | woodruffw wrote:
             | My understanding is that it's also still very common in
             | DC's beltway, for similar reasons (lots of civil servants
             | going to similar areas, living nearby each other).
        
         | bdcravens wrote:
         | I've had many Uber drivers give me a business card.
        
           | randallsquared wrote:
           | The whole point of Uber is that you don't have to call around
           | for a ride, though; a rolodex of business cards is not a good
           | substitute for Uber.
        
             | bdcravens wrote:
             | At the end of the day all we want is reliability and
             | convenience. Sometimes one-to-one business gives you that.
        
               | hyperhopper wrote:
               | > reliability
               | 
               | > Sometimes
               | 
               | I garuntee you the reliability of the Uber network of
               | drivers is higher than a single person who may be asleep
               | when you need them.
               | 
               | I've lived in NYC and I've lived in < 2k person remote
               | towns where business card drivers are more common than a
               | Lyft. Trying to deal with the individuals in the small
               | towns is always a nightmare
        
         | angmarsbane wrote:
         | Waze Carpool!
        
         | arkokoley wrote:
         | I used to do that with QuickRide in Bangalore. Very popular and
         | fairly simple to use. As a rider, you can put up your origin
         | and destination points. You are shown people with cars who have
         | a high overlap with your origin-destination route and you can
         | send them requests to join. Usually 1/4th the price of a cab
         | and the app has information about where each rider/car owner
         | works (mostly MNCs), that works as a trust factor.
         | 
         | https://quickride.in/
        
           | hackernewds wrote:
           | Sounds like a great way to kidnap victims with high paying
           | jobs
        
         | DeathArrow wrote:
         | >Surely someone has tried to implement this before and failed
         | and I just don't know?
         | 
         | In Europe there is BlaBlaCar
        
         | Raed667 wrote:
         | In France, there was an attempt at something close to this
         | concept[0].
         | 
         | Despite having thousands of people doing my same commute, I
         | have never been able to to get anyone to drive me to/from work.
         | 
         | [0] https://blablacardaily.com/
        
           | baisq wrote:
           | That works in Spain and it's more or less the same. Of
           | course, Spain is a much poorer country, so it makes more
           | sense to share a vehicle there.
        
         | marwatk wrote:
         | Isn't this the plot of a Black Mirror episode?
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nosedive_(Black_Mirror)
        
         | jjfoooo6 wrote:
         | A chicken and egg problem of data acquisition. If I'm a user,
         | why would I share data to such a service without concrete
         | services to unlock? If I'm a service provider, why would I pay
         | for a service without users?
         | 
         | Really such data is obtained only by service providers, credit
         | bureaus being an edge case. And if I've built a service that
         | acquires such data, why would I sell it rather than build more
         | services to sell?
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | At one point, I think people did this crossing the Bay Bridge
         | in SF. It didn't need a VC-funded startup with a bunch of
         | expensive engineers though. I think people just parked in a
         | known location and people pooled.
        
           | zten wrote:
           | I remember there being signs on Spear St at Folsom with
           | specific destinations for carpools. I can see them on Google
           | Street View in 2021, but they appear to be removed in 2022.
           | (or maybe they're designated on the paper you can't read on
           | street view right now?)
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | Never had a need myself but a friend in the East Bay way
             | back when mentioned to me once.
        
             | jaredsohn wrote:
             | Never used it myself but I think it is this:
             | https://sfcasualcarpool.com/ Found that at
             | https://511.org/carpool which includes a few alternatives
             | as well
        
         | memco wrote:
         | There was Waze carpool, which I used as a passenger. It was not
         | meant to be profitable as a source of income for drivers, but
         | helped cover the cost of gas and such. I don't remember the
         | exact sign up requirements but both the driver and rider had a
         | decision in who to pick up, when and where. Not sure if it's
         | still in existence but it sounds like it would be worth a look
         | for you.
        
           | hackernewds wrote:
           | Waze was bought by Google. They're allowed to coexist, but
           | got squashed as a competitor into irrelevance
        
       | FunnyBadger wrote:
       | I can proudly say that I've NEVER ONCE used these NeoSlavery
       | services and never will.
        
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       (page generated 2022-05-28 23:00 UTC)