[HN Gopher] The US military launched 500M needles into space (2019) ___________________________________________________________________ The US military launched 500M needles into space (2019) Author : martialg Score : 141 points Date : 2022-06-01 15:54 UTC (7 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.todayifoundout.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.todayifoundout.com) | mcguire wrote: | " _Presumably it would have been even worse had everyone realized | the United States had, a few years before this, planned to nuke | the moon, more or less just because they could..._ " | | Do have to say, that was a glorious era of scientific tomfoolery. | dylan604 wrote: | My favorite has always been scientifically promoted medicinal | use of leeches. | wumpus wrote: | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirudo_medicinalis#Today | evilduck wrote: | Nuking the moon was relatively mild compared to the proposed | Project Orion. | [deleted] | cleerline wrote: | half a billion needles put in orbit without consultation? pricks. | mandmandam wrote: | All those needles, and not a single moral compass. | 4dahalibut wrote: | This is a link to the original post: | https://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2019/10/that-time-t... | | written by Melissa Blevins | https://www.linkedin.com/in/blevinsmelissa/ | dang wrote: | Changed above from https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty- | history/us-military-la.... Thanks! | benatkin wrote: | I skipped the article and found the Wikipedia page, which | satisfied my curiosity from the headline: | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford | [deleted] | [deleted] | wumpus wrote: | Yep, that's a very interesting Wikipedia article. | | One thing that surprised me is that most of the needles | reentered within 3 years. They have a pretty large surface area | per unit mass, so the effects of the very thin atmosphere up | there is maximized. | | Normally a satellite at 3,500 km would take centuries to decay. | | There are some clumps of needles still up there. One not-well- | understood thing is how many small clumps remain -- the clumps | which are too small to be seen on radar. | mabbo wrote: | Curious: what happened to them? | | Sure, at this point none should still be in orbit because LEO has | too much drag. But did they definitely burn up on re-entry? Or | did the American Government cover the planet in a fine layer of | tiny needles? | panzagl wrote: | Still there, look for SATIDs in the 2360s. | dylan604 wrote: | >would have to rely on the mood of said ionosphere. | | From launching needles into space to HAARP, lots of study in | making the ionosphere more dependable. | | HAARP was fun fodder for consipiracy types back in the 90s. Even | the wikipedia article doesn't touch but a fraction of the stories | I've heard of: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High- | frequency_Active_Auroral_... | derac wrote: | The weather control theory is still very prevalent. | arein3 wrote: | Supposedly Mr. Trump asked about weather control when in | office and supposedly was disappointed there was supposedly | none. | | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/10/donald- | trump... | | The guardian's commentary tries to ridicule Trump but he | makes sense. | | If you can make tsunamis with bombs and can stop hail by | bombing the clouds when they are still forming maybe there | could be a way to stop/create hurricanes. No harm in asking. | ncmncm wrote: | They handed it over to the scientists. | dylan604 wrote: | The idea that HAARP caused the massive flooding of the | Mississipi in the 90s by causing the jet stream to move is | still held strongly today. | AaronFriel wrote: | I'm surprised the article doesn't mention the potential fast | track to Kessler syndrome, the name for a phenomenon in which it | becomes impossible to safely put things in orbit because every | object placed in orbit is rapidly impacted and disintegrated into | more debris in orbit. | | Purposely injecting debris into orbit, even if it's at a low | orbit, seems not good! | H8crilA wrote: | This will really go out of hand when WW3 starts and all the | intelligence gathering satellites will become targets. Not that | it's the most important thing in a global war, but we might | also successfully block all exit paths from this planet with | large amounts of very fast and deadly debris. | yodon wrote: | WW3 almost certainly also means no more communications | satellites and no more weather satellites, in addition to no | more humans in space. | | It would likely also mean nuclear winter and many other bad | things, but permanently denying use of satellites is likely | the first global cost of WW3. | robonerd wrote: | Nuclear Winter has been generally discredited by modern | modelling. The whole premise was likely politically | motivated by scientists who wanted to make nuclear war less | likely to occur, by dissuading politicians with this yarn. | (A true noble lie.) Criticism of the hypothesis was muted | by few scientists wanting to risk the perception of | supporting nuclear war. | | As for _" permanently denying use of satellites"_, this is | only partially true. High orbits would be fucked for | millennia, but LEO would mostly clear up before the century | is out. I know that seems 'forever', but it isn't. Also, | depending on the severity of the debris, interplanetary | exploration would not necessarily be out of the picture; if | the debris is severe enough that a GSO satellite has a 99% | chance of being destroyed within a year, then that orbit is | as good as ruined. But if you only plan to pass through | that region for a few hours, not spend a whole year there, | you might be able to do that if you can tolerate some risk. | It'd be like running across a highway, except the cars move | faster than bullets and won't brake for you. If you hang | out in the middle of the road you are certain to get hit. | If you time it right and run across, you have a chance of | getting through. | yodon wrote: | If you go back a bit farther, I think you'll find the | work on nuclear winter actually came out of work done at | Cornell to try to model the result of a large object | impacting the earth 65 million years ago to kill off the | dinosaurs. Amazingly enough, one of the hardest parts of | the dinosaur extinction work was figuring out how a | localized impact like that could kill enough things to | cause an extinction, and that part came from the | atmospheric modelers. After doing that modeling work, | they realized the parallels with a nuclear conflict and | produced the nuclear winter projections. | robonerd wrote: | I think there's little doubt that tons of soot and ash in | the upper atmosphere can cause periods of global cooling. | The problem with the nuclear winter hypothesis is in the | link between nuclear war and tons of soot in the | stratosphere. These nuclear winter models make a lot of | assumptions about the likelihood of a modern cities | turning into firestorms and the amount of soot they would | generate, the amount of soot lifted into the stratosphere | by the fireball, and the amount of soot that stays there | instead of precipitating out. | ncmncm wrote: | Then it turned out everything was cooked, not frozen. | robonerd wrote: | WW3 will likely make a mess of orbit, particularly LEO. However | most of the debris that intersects LEO will decay in the order | of years to tens of years. After the war (assuming anybody is | in any shape to be sending stuff to space in the first place) I | think communication satellites in LEO will become the norm | (moreso than it already is becoming.) This would be the obvious | response to higher orbits being ruined by debris. | | But such a war would be very bad in many ways, and if this | happens I don't think worrying about space will be high on your | list of personal priorities. | idealmedtech wrote: | LEO is too susceptible to interference (of the physical, not | radio, kind) for any serious digital communications | infrastructure to be placed there. I could see laser-based | swarms of comms satellites being used (cubesat size, not | starlink size), but I don't think the economics are there | quite yet. | robonerd wrote: | It's not clear what exactly you mean by physical | interference, but either way I think you're mistaken. | Starlink is already proving the viability of launching huge | constellations of fairly large (a ton or so) LEO | satellites. If you're talking about debris grounding these | constellations, that's a problem that resolves itself given | enough time, as that debris deorbits naturally. | | If you're talking about intentional physical interference, | aka anti-satellite weapons, the solution to that is having | the ability to rapidly replenish the constellation (SpaceX | is good at this, and with Starship they'll be even better | at it; hundreds of replacement satellites with a single | launch.) In the event of a war, a constellation could be | kept operational through the brute force of launching more | satellites faster than they're destroyed. Of course this | will make a huge mess, but that's what wars do. | | Anyway, they're going forward with this already. The | National Defense Space Architecture calls for a very large | constellation of LEO communication satellites forming a | mesh network using inter-satellite laser links. Starlink is | likely dual-use technology and has been intended as such | from the start. | cm2012 wrote: | I don't know, destruction is almost always easier than | construction. And China demonstrated an anti-satellite | laser already. | jltsiren wrote: | If you can launch hundreds of useful satellites with a | single launch, you can also launch thousands of satellite | killers for the same price. A simple short-lived | satellite with some sensors, minor maneuvering | capabilities, and the ability to turn into a debris cloud | on a close pass should be quite effective when deployed | in huge numbers. The economies of scale favor destruction | if you really don't care about the consequences. | robonerd wrote: | Having thousands of boost-phase interceptors already in | LEO actually puts a real damper on anybody trying to do | something about it, the economics of the game favor | whoever implements such a system first. They will be able | to use large rockets to efficiently launch huge numbers | of satellites, while the boost-phase interceptors in LEO | (constantly replenished via that capability) prevent the | enemy from doing the same. | | Big picture, even if Russia and/or China managed to turn | LEO into an impenetrable barrier of debris before the war | was lost for them anyway, what would they actually have | accomplished? The satellites that previously acted as | America's shield would now be debris that would | _continue_ to shield America, _and_ America would still | have Aegis BMD around the world. Symmetrical war with | America is beyond stupid, there is no balance, no fair | fight. The purpose of these systems is to ensure that it | stays this way, so that nobody tries in the first place. | jltsiren wrote: | Boost-phase interceptors would be big expensive weapons | systems. Because they have only a few minutes to hit | before the target deploys the payload, they would have to | expend lots of delta-v to guarantee intercept. Deploying | such large-scale missile defense systems would be obvious | to everyone. By the usual cold war calculus, such | attempts would likely trigger a nuclear war. If you | attempt to neutralize enemy nuclear deterrent, you are | announcing your first strike intentions to everyone. | | As for why, maybe the reason wouldn't even involve | America that much. Maybe China decides to take Taiwan, | and to prevent America from interfering, they choose to | destroy LEO for everyone. Maybe it would be an acceptable | sacrifice for them, as they are more interested in | controlling their neighborhood than projecting power to | faraway places. | robonerd wrote: | > _Boost-phase interceptors would be big expensive | weapons systems_ | | Not very big actually, not if the interceptors are placed | in LEO. They're a hell of a lot smaller and cheaper than | the missiles they're meant to intercept. The kill | vehicles themselves are only a few kilograms, very small | and light weight. For such light-weight interceptors | positioned in LEO, you don't need much booster to get the | job done. You can get away with a booster much smaller | than an SM-3. | | > _Because they have only a few minutes to hit before the | target deploys the payload, they would have to expend | lots of delta-v to guarantee intercept_ | | The more you have, the less delta-v they need. That's why | Brilliant Pebbles proposed thousands if not tens of | thousands of them. Launching such a huge number of | interceptors would be possible with Falcon 9, but | Starship would be much better at it. | | > _Maybe China decides to take Taiwan_ | | Maybe they would, but they would have to be insane to | start a symmetric war with America itself. And that's the | whole point. | | > _Deploying such large-scale missile defense systems | would be obvious to everyone._ | | If you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed that | China and Russia haven't been very secret about their | interest in countering Starlink. It's not because they're | afraid the US might give uncensorable internet to Chinese | and Russian people, as I've seen some on HN speculate. | They obviously perceive the strategic threat already. | Besides starting the war first, there's not a whole lot | they can do about it. If they start the war first, start | it _now_ , they'll probably kill a lot more Americans | than if they wait and do it later. But that doesn't | matter because they'd still all die, so they aren't going | to do it. Neither China nor Russia has a BMD system that | could prevent America from killing them all. | bee_rider wrote: | I think things like orbital decay and coverage per | satellite are the more serious concerns. | | I mean, LEO is still harder to reach out to than almost | anywhere on Earth. | | The main deterrent to attacking our assets in LEO or on | Earth is that such an act would at least have some | serious political fallout, and potentially start a war | depending on how annoying it is. | kevin_thibedeau wrote: | A satellite killer would need the ability to rendezvous | with a target. You're not getting that level of | capability for the same price as a box with a radio. | bluGill wrote: | LEO has low latency though, which is important. | Communications via satellite in higher orbits suck. Ever | dealt with 600ms ping times? I have, you get used to it, | but I'm glad to be on ground based internet now, things | just feel faster. (and the web is still slow) | phendrenad2 wrote: | Does anyone actually believe in that? Surely most space debris | doesn't form a stable orbit, but falls back to earth after a | few collisions. | [deleted] | IntrepidWorm wrote: | Armchair astonomer here. If the bodies involved in the | collision are already in stable orbits around earth, most of | the debris from the collision will remain relatively true to | its orbit prior to impact, though the force of the collision | will spread the debris apart over time. Any orbits remotely | close to earth will decay eventually, but that would depend | on quite a few factors: it is possible small debris would | remain orbiting for quite some time. The small stuff is what | worries me the most - objects less than a square centimeter. | | A head on collision would be incredibly violent and would | disperse a large cloud of debris over a large area - some of | that would fall back to earth quickly. This would be | incredibly unlikely, given that most objects above Earth | orbit in a relatively similar set of planes and inclinations. | A more likely scenario would be two similarly inclined orbits | overlapping, with the satellites or debris impacting | shallowly and at relatively (to orbital velocities, that is) | low energy. It wouldn't take much to shred apart much of the | more delicate instrumentation orbiting above our heads, which | would similarly endanger more sensitive equipment, and so on. | airstrike wrote: | That "unstable" orbit can take an awful long time... | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgxWuFj7d9I | bagels wrote: | How often do you think an individual piece of debris is | impacting other objects? Most space debris starts as | something in orbit, and if it's at a high enough altitude, | most pieces do indeed stay in orbit. There is clear | precedence for this. | | https://swfound.org/media/6575/swf_iridium_cosmos_collision_. | .. | | "Analysis by both NASA and outside experts indicates that | more than half of the Iridium debris will remain in orbit for | at least 100 years, and much of the Cosmos debris will remain | in orbit at least 20 to thirty years." | mcguire wrote: | Objects in orbit are primarily cleared by atmospheric drag, | with two major variables: height of perigee (lower causes | more drag) and object mass (lighter objects are slowed more). | Following an impact, some of the debris will be cleared | quickly, but some will not. | | " _On 11 January 2007, China conducted an anti-satellite | missile test in which one of their FY-1C weather satellites | was chosen as the target. The collision occurred at an | altitude of 865 kilometres, when the satellite with a mass of | 750 kilograms was struck in a head-on-collision by a kinetic | payload traveling with a speed of 8 km /s (18,000 mph) in the | opposite direction. The resulting debris orbits the Earth | with a mean altitude above 850 kilometres, and will likely | remain in orbit for decades or centuries.[18]_" | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome#Anti- | satellit...) | | Kessler syndrome requires the rate of debris creation be | greater than the rate of clearing and the rate of clearing in | higher orbits is _very_ slow. | | https://amostech.com/TechnicalPapers/2012/Orbital_Debris/NIK. | .. | phendrenad2 wrote: | > will likely remain in orbit for decades or centuries | | How much debris though? If I put orange juice in my coffee | mug, after a few runs through the dishwasher there may | technically be a few particles of orange juice left, but my | taste buds probably won't collide with it. | IntrepidWorm wrote: | I'm not sure the analogy holds - again, most of this | debris would be occupying a relatively narrow region of | space surrounding Earth, and it wouldn't simply decay | after a few orbits. Thinking of kessler syndrome as some | impenetrable shell of bullets misses the forest for the | trees, i think. It doesn't take much debris to render a | region of space unsafe for humans or multi-million dollar | satellites. | | To attempt extend your analogy: you might be confident | that most of the juice was washed out of the mug after a | few cycles set to scour, but if you are deathly allergic | to any exposure to oranges, what's your risk tolerance? | | Make sure you clean the dishwasher trap, as well. :) | robonerd wrote: | > _what 's your risk tolerance?_ | | That's the key question the whole matter hangs on, but | there's no objective answer for it. Neil Armstrong | privately estimated his chance for successfully returning | to earth at 90%. That's alarmingly low! That's barely | safer than Russian roulette. | | Determining how much risk can be tolerated means figuring | out how badly you want the thing. The more you want | something, the more risk you can tolerate. Satellites are | extremely important to our society, so governments would | continue launching the satellites they value most, even | if the expected lifespan of the satellite due to space | debris was very short. | | Of course, superfluous and casual use of space would | grind to a halt. One of many casualties of war. | photochemsyn wrote: | The article briefly mentions it... not sure how many per | 'clump' though: | | > "Going back to the needles, in case you're wondering, despite | the planned obsolescence, as of 2019, a few dozen clumps of | them remain in orbit and are closely tracked..." | spicy_tendies wrote: | >Today in our digital world, of course, a similar electromagnetic | pulse would have much more catastrophic effects, especially if | near more populated centers, potentially even revealing the | Lizard people's Matrix, which would be catastrophic to our | Draconian overlords' (may they reign forever) plans... | | I loved this joke they threw in there | jmmcd wrote: | I also enjoyed the phrasing: | | > To begin with, the ionosphere's composition changes most | drastically at night, primarily because, of course, the Sun | goes missing for a bit. | | I can imagine Bertie Wooster saying this. | [deleted] | mig39 wrote: | > consider that also smack dab in the middle of this time, the | United States was busy accidentally nuking Britain's first | satellite, among many, many others. | | Woah... anybody have more info on that? | | Edit: more info here: | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime | mushbino wrote: | >Scientific Discoveries: The Starfish bomb contained Cd-109 as | a tracer, which helped work out the seasonal mixing rate of | polar and tropical air masses. | | Ah, totally worth it | elliottkember wrote: | Finish the article. It's fully explained in the very next | paragraph. | gwill wrote: | great article! I loved the tidbits at the bottom too. found a | good list of wake up songs from nasa here: | https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/shuttlemissions/s... | anonymousiam wrote: | Great article! The needles formed a passive repeater, which would | be a cheap alternative to a comsat. To me, the more interesting | part of the article was the history of exo-atomospheric nuclear | testing and the consequences to the satellites that were | operating in that era. | | It's also interesting that the scientific community's objections | to further launches actually had an effect. That doesn't seem to | be the case anymore -- at least not with Starlink. | dylan604 wrote: | Starlink is a private company that doesn't concern itself with | the concerns of others. I don't think comparing a private corp | to a gov't body should have expectations of similar results. | Private corp doesn't | jcims wrote: | The FAA and FCC are government bodies that have and exercise | authority over SpaceX's design, implementation and operation | of Starlink. | dylan604 wrote: | And have done nothing but rubber stamped everything they | have requested regarding Starlink. No robust discussion of | affects on others has been given serious thought other than | "we'll paint them flat black" as a PR spin is not serious. | wumpus wrote: | I'm an astronomer who's been following the situation, and | this comment of yours is entirely false. | | For example, there was only one satellite painted dark, | and it didn't work well enough. The next mitigation after | that worked well, but not well enough. | dylan604 wrote: | Sorry, you think I was making a comment in support of | Starlink? What are you saying is false? Do you think that | I believe Starlink's PR spin (what is confusing about | those words?) to paint satellites black would fix the | problem they created? Do you think that I belive the | FAA/FCC have told SpaceX that they could no longer go | ahead with their plans until a solution was in place? | Where's the disconnect? | Teknoman117 wrote: | As much as people may hate the prospect of putting that | many satellites up, the service is so darn useful. | | What's the alternative? Force anyone who wants to | participate in the modern world to live in a city or | suburb along a fiber line? Neither public nor private | groups have expressed much interest in actually getting | internet connectivity to everyone. | | My parents live in a rural area in Northern California | and only about 5 miles away from a fiber drop point. | However, there are only about ten houses on their street | and the local ISP and the big one that actually owns the | fiber wants $10k USD a pole to bring a fiber line over to | them (there's about 80 poles that would need work) plus | connection and maintenance fees after that point. | | Needless to say, they're _loving_ their Starlink | connection. | Terry_Roll wrote: | Perhaps the Starlink team didnt use Vantablack | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vantablack) to hide their | existence? Maybe Surrey NanoSystems could help out or | there again maybe scientists would end up spotting | numerous black holes much like they thought they had | discovered something more interesting than an impatient | scientist! | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peryton_(astronomy) | | This is still consigned to coverup/conspiracy theory but | these Ionosphere Heaters | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionospheric_heater) have | the ability to heat up the Ionosphere creating something | akin to the bulge on a balloon or car tyre wall where the | upper atmosphere pushes out into space. | | This has two effects, it push's atmosphere into the low | earth orbiting satellites path aking to driving through a | sudden bank of fog, only this bulge of atmosphere can | bring LEOB satellites down as they are not designed to go | through atmosphere. | | It also affects the Jet Stream winds in the upper | atmosphere circulating the planet which in turn affects | the weather of continents, its less predictable but its | an alternative to the very localised and resource hungry | cloud seeding. | | The BBC Horizon program did a episode on "Space Weather" | and in the last 5mins of the episode they focused on the | EISCAT heater near Tromso in Norway. In the episode the | operator/scientist explained what it does to the upper | atmosphere, which is explained above. Obviously this also | has military applications because any LEOB satellite can | be bought down if these IH's are on a ship somewhere in | the middle of an ocean away from prying eyes! | [deleted] | wumpus wrote: | Don't forget the ITU, that's where the regulation starts. | Retric wrote: | Many governments are currently regulating Starlink | operations in their countries. The while the FAA and NASA | have an outsized role, the US alone isn't enough to make | Starlink commercially viable. | | You personally may not benefit, but LEO internet | constellations really do solve a major issue for many | people. | MomoXenosaga wrote: | America is unconcerned with the opinions of other | countries (I don't blame them the reality is that might | makes right) and I really don't see what the rest of the | world can do to stop Starlink launches that wouldn't | involve WW3. | | But I'm sure that if it all goes tits up the US will fix | it all and humbly apologize. | Retric wrote: | Starlink satellites are dependent on Hall-effect | thrusters to maintain orbit, so the constellation will | quickly burn up if Star link fails. | wumpus wrote: | There's a treaty that everyone signed, and it says | Starlink launches are fine as long as the country they | launch from says OK. China can OK Chinese launches. | Satellites aren't supposed to interfere with each other, | but that's not strictly defined. You aren't supposed to | create debris, but the standard for that isn't strict at | all. | | There's a good discussion going on about extending that | treaty: stricter rules on deorbiting failed satellites | and stages, light pollution, excessive numbers of | satellites in narrow orbital bands, and so on. | dylan604 wrote: | It's not the ground based operations that get me, it's | those on the ground looking up seeing nothing but | Starlink | Retric wrote: | It's straightforward to kill Starlink, just solve the | "last mile" internet access problem and they fail. | | The idea we could setup mail service to everyone then | wire up electricity and finally landlines to effectively | every home in a vastly poor societies but can't solve the | internet issue without satellites is disgraceful. | bozhark wrote: | It should, when it comes to space. | | There is nothing private about space | me_me_mu_mu wrote: | just buy your own planet bro | | /s | dylan604 wrote: | Mostly, but we have no idea (confirmed) what the Air | Force's space plane does. We know it exists, we can track | it while in orbit, but what it does do while there is not | public. Also, the software and other capabilities of a lot | of satellites are inferred but not 100% known. | | So these birds are privately doing things in a public, | ahem, space. | robonerd wrote: | It's nothing new. There were numerous classifieds Shuttle | missions 30+ years ago that are still classified. People | have more or less figured out what these missions were, | but they're still classified and and a lot of the details | still aren't known. | | Interesting anecdote from one of them (STS-27): | | > _The day after Atlantis landed, the 1988 Armenian | earthquake killed tens of thousands in the Soviet Union. | At an astronaut meeting Gibson said, "I know many of you | may have been very curious about our classified payload. | While I can't go into its design features, I can say | Armenia was its first target!" As military astronauts | laughed and civilians cringed, Gibson continued, "And we | only had the weapon set on stun!"_ | | (Turns out it was actually a synthetic aperture radar | recon satellite, not an earthquake machine.) | bozhark wrote: | Is that the one that was up for over a year? | | https://www.livescience.com/x37b-secret-space-plane- | facts.ht... | ncmncm wrote: | Yes. They park it up there so it won't sit in a hangar | decaying, obviously useless. | Uptrenda wrote: | I wonder if those needle clumps that remain in orbit are still | useful for communication? The article mentioned that a nuke | launch damaged some satellites at the time. Wouldn't needles also | have the advantage that they have no circuits that could be fried | from EMPs or radiation? I'm not sure to what extent you can | shield satellites today - but it is something to think about. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-06-01 23:00 UTC)