[HN Gopher] US moves closer to recalling Tesla's self-driving so... ___________________________________________________________________ US moves closer to recalling Tesla's self-driving software Author : heavyset_go Score : 233 points Date : 2022-06-11 18:39 UTC (4 hours ago) (HTM) web link (fortune.com) (TXT) w3m dump (fortune.com) | musesum wrote: | My use case was autopilot steering me off the left hand side of | the road at 80 MPH during a sunset [1] My (WAG) guess is that the | ML corpus was based on a model 3, while the model Y, I was | driving, had placed the sensors slightly higher? I dunno; again, | tis a WAG. | | I am a huge fan of Tesla's permise. My Dad sold Vanguard Citicars | [2], and I worked on GM's interactive ad for the EV-1. I put a | down payment on Aptera's original EV and again on the resurrected | version. | | But, I backed out of buying a Tesla. Even though I disabled | Autopilot and ran purely cruise control, the Model Y would brake | for phantom obstacles. Such as: low rises in the road. Or: | passing a 18-wheeler on the left. Driving from AZ to CA, the | phantom braking was occuring every 5 miles or so. So, I had to | drive 800 miles with a manual accelerator. Bummer! | | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31504583 | | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar | chrisseaton wrote: | > My (WAG) guess | | Wives-and-girlfriends? | matheist wrote: | Wild-ass guess | chrisseaton wrote: | Wild-ass guess guess? | fragmede wrote: | Yes, like when people say PIN number or ATM machine. Or | HIV virus or LCD display. | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAS_syndrome | hyperbovine wrote: | Thank God. I for one did not opt into this beta test every time I | get on the road. | MBCook wrote: | This, more than anything, is what worries me. I do not own a | Tesla. I didn't agree to anything. I'm not choosing to enable | auto-pilot (or FSD). | | And yet my life is/may be in danger because of it. | | No other car manufacturer has ever done anything like this as | far as I know. | epgui wrote: | This is not about FSD. | robonerd wrote: | Hyperbovine didn't mention FSD. Let me spell it out for you: | Autopilot is beta grade software _at best._ It drives | straight into parked trucks. | KennyBlanken wrote: | It routinely drives straight into parked emergency vehicles | displaying a blaze of flashing lights. | md2020 wrote: | "Routinely" isn't even close to the truth. | epgui wrote: | The company doesn't consider autopilot to be in beta, but | it does call FSD this. | robonerd wrote: | > _The company doesn't consider autopilot to be in beta_ | | That only makes it even worse. | epgui wrote: | I think the question of whether something is a beta is | different than whether anyone thinks it ought to be. | There's a lot of "non-beta", but bad, software. | robonerd wrote: | Tesla thinking this software is production ready shows a | complete disconnect from either reality or common | morality. | Barrin92 wrote: | the difference being that most of that software doesn't | move two tons of steel through traffic at lethal | velocities so maybe accurate terminology is appropriate | here. | [deleted] | md2020 wrote: | What about other driving assistance system that claim to do | the same thing as Autopilot? My 2022 Hyundai Elantra has a | system that drives itself on highways. GM Super/UltraCruise | is available on highways. Is NHTSA gonna investigate them | too? Presumably they're no farther along in self driving | than Tesla is. | Vladimof wrote: | It doesn't help that Musk tries to create confusion by naming | things something they're not. Next thing he'll implement | might be the Flying Car Update... which will turn lights | green as you drive by using the 14hz infrared signal. | [deleted] | freeflight wrote: | With the way Tesla markets autopilot [0] it's really no | surprise people are using these as interchangeably as Tesla | itself tends to do. | | [0] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53418069 | bagels wrote: | It used to say on the autopilot page "full self driving | hardware". They left of the distinction that "full self | driving software" is not done yet. | [deleted] | chromejs10 wrote: | One thing I don't quite understand is that many cars have | autopilot-like software. Unlike tesla's which constantly requires | putting pressure on the wheel to show you're there and paying | attention, Ford's lets you drive indefinitely without any hands | on the wheel. Wouldn't this same investigation be put onto other | manufactures as a giant audit? Hitting emergency vehicles is | obviously bad but 1) it happens in cars without autopilot and 2) | if you're hitting one you're clearly no paying attention. it's | not like they just appear out of no where | donw wrote: | The ruling class doesn't like Elon Musk. | bigbluedots wrote: | Seriously? If money is power, Musk _is_ the ruling class. | heavyset_go wrote: | > _On Thursday, NHTSA said it had discovered in 16 separate | instances when this occurred that Autopilot "aborted vehicle | control less than one second prior to the first impact," | suggesting the driver was not prepared to assume full control | over the vehicle._ | | > _CEO Elon Musk has often claimed that accidents cannot be the | fault of the company, as data it extracted invariably showed | Autopilot was not active in the moment of the collision._ | | > _While anything that might indicate the system was designed to | shut off when it sensed an imminent accident might damage Tesla's | image, legally the company would be a difficult target._ | 01100011 wrote: | > legally the company would be a difficult target | | Is this the case? | | Look at the Toyota "Acceleration Gate" fiasco. Toyota paid | billions(full amount isn't disclosed due to NDAs in hundreds of | cases) because of poor software. If Tesla engineers failed to | adhere to industry best practices(hard to do when you're using | deep learning in your control loop) then they'll likely be | liable. | | An overview of the Toyota scandal: | https://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/pubs/koopman14_toyota_ua_... | kylecordes wrote: | I remember reading that at the time, and just looked at the | slides again. | | A bug which commands wide open throttle also therefore | depletes engine vacuum, leading to a lack of power assist if | the brakes are pressed and released and pressed again. | | Drivers who have been around the block a bit and have some | mechanical sympathy would take a moment to realize neutral | will resolve the situation. But many other drivers would not | realize this. | | Although it would not absolve Toyota from responsibility in | such a case, I wish driver training required and tested for | dealing with a long list of adverse situations within N | seconds each. | lawn wrote: | So what happens is | | 1. Speed straight towards your doom. | | 2. Give back control a moment before collision, when it | realizes it fucked up. | | 3. "It was the driver's fault" | epgui wrote: | If you read the actual report, you will see that NHTSA | actually acknowledges that autopilot makes things safer | overall, and they agree that crashes are due to misuse of the | software. They highlight that on average, when there was a | crash, the driver should have been able to recognize the | hazard ~8 seconds in advance. | lazide wrote: | The challenge of course is what level of misuse is to be | expected (especially once it becomes more widely | available), and if using the software with normal levels of | misuse results in an overall safer level of driving than | without it. | epgui wrote: | It appears to be so: misuse is included in the overall | safety assessment. | | But this is exactly the position of NHTSA in the report. | They say that if Tesla can reasonably do something to | mitigate misuse, then they should. That's what this is | about. | lazide wrote: | My point is: | | 1) This is currently limited to a pretty restricted | market (people who drive Teslas, which is a small subset | of car drivers). When used more widely by a wider set of | people, it may have a worse track record. | | 2) It isn't clear that such misuse has reasonable | mitigations that will continue to make it attractive to | use. | | But it's all speculation at this point. | CSMastermind wrote: | > If you read the actual report, you will see that NHTSA | actually acknowledges that autopilot makes things safer | overall | | Where does it say that in the report? | | > and they agree that crashes are due to misuse of the | software | | I also do not see this in the report other than | acknowledging that is Tesla's stance. In fact, they | explicitly reject that as a defense, to quote: | | "A driver's use or misuse of vehicle components, or | operation of a vehicle in an unintended manner does not | necessarily preclude a system defect. This is particularly | the case if the driver behavior in question is foreseeable | in light of the system's design or operation." | | > They highlight that on average, when there was a crash, | the driver should have been able to recognize the hazard ~8 | seconds in advance | | That's simply not what the report says. Here's the passage | you're referencing: | | "Where incident video was available, the approach to the | first responder scene would have been visible to the driver | an average of 8 seconds leading up to impact." | | _Except_ you're leaving out some extremely important | context. | | 1. This sentence is part of the expository section of the | report, it's in no way "highlighted". | | 2. This is referring _only_ to 11 specific collisions in | which Teslas struck first responders, not the other 191 | collisions they examined. | | I've seen some other things you've said in this thread so I | feel like I should address those as well. | | > this is only autopilot not FSD. | | To quote the report: | | "Each of these crashes involved a report of a Tesla vehicle | operating one of its Autopilot versions (Autopilot or Full- | Self Driving, or associated Tesla features such as Traffic- | Aware Cruise Control, Autosteer, Navigate on Autopilot, and | Auto Lane Change)." | | > this will be fixed by an over the airwaves update. | | I see nowhere in the report that says this. In fact as far | as I can tell from reading it the report says they're | upgrading and escalating their investigation because of the | seriousness of the concerns. | | Here's the report's conclusion in its entirety: | | "Accordingly, PE21-020 is upgraded to an Engineering | Analysis to extend the existing crash analysis, evaluate | additional data sets, perform vehicle evaluations, and to | explore the degree to which Autopilot and associated Tesla | systems may exacerbate human factors or behavioral safety | risks by undermining the effectiveness of the driver's | supervision. In doing so, NHTSA plans to continue its | assessment of vehicle control authority, driver engagement | technologies, and related human factors considerations." | | Actual report here for those curious: | https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INOA-EA22002-3184.PDF | | And for those who don't here's the best summary I can | provide. | | * The government received 11 reports of Teslas striking | first responders with autopilot engaged. | | * After an initial investigation of these reports they | deemed them serious enough to open a broader investigation | into the technology. | | * They found 191 cases where vehicles using the technology | crashed unexpectedly. | | * Of those 85 were dismissed because of external factors or | lack of data (leaving 106). | | * Of those "approximately half" could be attributed to | drivers not paying attention, not having their hands on the | wheel, or not responding to vehicle attention prompts. | | * Of the 106 "approximately a quarter" could be attributed | to operating the system in environments where it's not | fully supported, such as rain, snow, or ice. | | * That leaves 37 cases where it appears the cars | malfunctioned, both not prompting the driver and not taking | preventative action like braking until it was too late to | avoid the crash or not at all. | | * As a result, the NHTSA is escalating their investigation | to do an engineering analysis of these systems looking to | better understand the defects. | [deleted] | zozbot234 wrote: | Plot twist: it's always the driver's fault. Autopilot is | glorified cruise control (the technical term is 'Level 2' on | the SAE scale). It literally doesn't matter when Autopilot | bails out altogether (even if it manages to automatically | avert a crash on other occasions), the driver _must_ be fully | in control at all times. Would you trust your cruise control | to prevent a collision? Of course not, that would be crazy. | It 's not what it's built for. What a worthless discussion. | Sakos wrote: | It seems so weird to me how people so vehemently defend | Tesla instead of holding them to higher standards. What do | you owe them and why? | smokey_circles wrote: | Well when you wrap your identity around someone else's | idea, you get weird outputs at the edge cases | abawany wrote: | Some might also be defending their stock portfolios, | 401ks, and future tesla purchases built on tsla price | appreciations. | robonerd wrote: | > _the driver must be fully in control at all times_ | | Yes, that's precisely what the manual said last time I | checked. But it's not how Elon Musk has presented it, nor | how innumerable Tesla drivers treat it. | cma wrote: | Tesla say in the video here the driver is only there | because of regulators, not ethical reasons: | | https://www.tesla.com/autopilot | | This video was from 2018 or so I think and they pretended | the driver wasn't needed. | [deleted] | legalcorrection wrote: | The problem is that people can't actually take over fast | enough necessarily. If you're not actively driving, then | you can't just immediately react. | zozbot234 wrote: | Sure, but what does that have to do with Autopilot? | "Driver gets into a crash because they were spaced out | and not actually paying attention to the road" is | something that happens all the time, no need for modern | ADAS. | epgui wrote: | Exactly, the most important metric/question is whether it | improves overall safety compared to the baseline. | wolverine876 wrote: | That's the metric Tesla and the self-driving car industry | would like to use, but I don't see why it's the most | important. Also, it misconstrues 'most important' to mean | 'all that's important'. | | We could just ban personal vehicles to improve overall | safety. | Spivak wrote: | Because "drivers space out when using a system that | removes the stimulus of driving that keeps them alert" is | not solely the fault of the individual when it's not | possible in real world scenarios to use it safely. | googlryas wrote: | But you're supposed to be actively driving with | autopilot. | | I use autopilot every now and then, and when I do, I | literally keep my hands on the wheel in a driving | position, and my foot resting lightly on the pedal. | legalcorrection wrote: | You by definition can't be actively driving. You're just | watching. It's active driving that keeps you alert in the | first place. | epgui wrote: | The NHTSA report says that on average, an attentive | driver would have been able to react 8 seconds before the | crash. 8 seconds is a lot of time on the highway (where | autopilot can be used). | freeflight wrote: | Yet the autopilot system chose to only warn the drivers 1 | second before impact, which is basically no time at all | to react to anything. | | So if those 8 seconds of "autopilot ain't too sure" | actually exist, then the car needs to signal that to the | driver so the driver can be ready to take over. | | The fact it still doesn't do that, speaks volumes about | the kind of "progress" Tesla seems to be making, none of | it good. | zozbot234 wrote: | The crashes were not of a kind that Autopilot could have | detected earlier. Several involved stationary objects, | that Autopilot seems to intentionally ignore because it | can't tell apart what's actually in the way of the car | from harmless features of the surroundings that will | never cause a collision. Which just goes to prove: | Autopilot = glorified cruise control. You must never | expect it to keep you safe. | chrisseaton wrote: | > Autopilot = glorified cruise control | | Isn't that what the name implies? An autopilot keeps | heading and speed. | lawn wrote: | The whole concept is flawed. | | We cannot expect humans to be able to pay attention and be | able to take over at a moment's notice at all times, simply | because that's not how our brains work. | | Autopilot is in the danger zone, where it's good enough to | make your brain relax, but it's bad enough to require your | brain to not do that. So it's fundamentally unsafe. | | Cruise control in contrast isn't good enough so your brain | will have to pay attention, otherwise you'll crash very | quickly. | | And this is all made much, much worse by Elon's and Tesla's | irresponsible marketing, and the believers who dismiss this | as a "worthless discussion". | zozbot234 wrote: | > We cannot expect humans to be able to pay attention and | be able to take over at a moment's notice at all times | | And yet, this is what ordinary driving requires already. | It's not a new requirement. The whole point of this | investigation is to figure out the matter of whether a | SAE Level 2 ADAS really makes distracted driving more | likely. The jury is still out on that, and even if it | does it would be reasonably easy to cope with the problem | by tuning the system to alert the driver more frequently, | especially ahead of impending danger (such as in low | visibility conditions, which are expressly mentioned as a | key factor in these crashes). | bbarnett wrote: | _And yet, this is what ordinary driving requires already_ | | No, it's not. Not at all. | heretogetout wrote: | Exactly as predicted by many, many skeptics. Of course that's | what his statement meant. | Bellend wrote: | lol @ anything Elon Musk. Did he not say last week he was sending | 1000 Starships to Mars? What a fucking tosser. | faebi wrote: | I think too much focus at Tesla is on FSD beta while barely | anything trickles down to standard cars. They need more | developers who extract new features down and make them ready for | a worldwide rollout. The best symptom of this is the horrible | state of Auto Pilot in Europe. Or how their auto blinding lights | are just outright bad even though they have all the tools to fix | it with a nice update. | xaduha wrote: | Lidar approach just has to be the winner in my opinion, simpler | is better. | nemothekid wrote: | LIDAR isn't simpler. | xaduha wrote: | Why not? Sure it's all complicated enough, but conceptually | measuring distance with a laser is simple. | | Do that many, many times and you have a good enough picture | of the surrounding area in a machine-readable 3d format, so | you have a good starting point. | | How is that not simpler than what Tesla is doing? | Zigurd wrote: | Lidar is lo-res, though it has other advantages. Sensor fusion | is also not without complexity and problems. But camera-only | systems seem like one of those bets that hangs out there for | too long before it will have to be walked back, leaving a lot | of customers with stranded technology and unmet expectations. | keewee7 wrote: | A future with high powered infrared lasers on top of every car | will probably lead to a mysterious rise in people slowly losing | their vision. Someone should do a study of the eyes and vision | of people who work with LIDAR. | | Why not instead use multiple radars (we already put 1-2 radars | in cars with adaptive cruise control) to augment Tesla's vision | based approach? | kibwen wrote: | According to this article, lidar using eye-safe lasers is | standard: https://photonicsreport.com/blog/is-lidar- | dangerous-for-our-... | | _" If a lidar system ever uses a laser with a higher safety | class, then it could pose a serious hazard for your eyes. | However, as it stands, according to current information and | practices, lidar manufacturers use class 1 eye-safe (near) | infrared laser diodes."_ | bbarnett wrote: | And what if you are hit in the eyes with the outout of 20 | of them at once? | | Like on a busy highway. | | What if you are hit all day long, for hours, every single | day? | | History is replete with studies which were used to presume | different exposures would be fine. | coolspot wrote: | You're right that it needs further studying, to not end | as asbestos. | | On a side note, you eyes are hit with more powerful and | full-spectrum radiation (from IR to UV) from a burning | star every day for hours (or at least they are designed | to). | KennyBlanken wrote: | You sound like the kind of internet commenter who whinges | about how dangerous bicycles are on the road because | someone in a car might swerve to avoid them and head-on | collide with a tractor trailer. | Misdicorl wrote: | The math makes this quite implausible for a random | scenario. Perhaps a toll collector could introduce the | right systematics to make the scenario not ridiculous on | it's face. | | Imagine pointing a laser at something more than five feet | distant the size of an eyeball and then getting another | laser to point at the same spot at the same time. And | then another five. And those lasers are all attached to | cars moving and the eyeball is moving too... | SoftTalker wrote: | Put an IR filter in the car window glass? | md2020 wrote: | Simpler is better, so you want to add another sensor that | humans don't have, to do a task that only humans can currently | do safely? This makes no sense to me. | xaduha wrote: | ryukoposting wrote: | FMCW radar is more tenable for automotive applications, in my | opinion. No lasers necessary. | IshKebab wrote: | Way too basic. They don't even produce an image. | chrinic3839 wrote: | It's a shame. I really wanted Tesla to succeed. | | But as time goes on, their products become less impressive and | their CEO is not helping the brand. | mise_en_place wrote: | TSLA will succeed, if you believe the hypothesis that oil | prices will continue to climb to the point that many buyers are | priced out of that market and switch to electric vehicles. It's | screwed if the alternate hypothesis is true (that is we | continue to use oil forever). | SoftTalker wrote: | Tesla succeeded in showing the world that an electic car can be | something more than a glorified golf cart. That is frankly a | huge achievement, compared to what came before. EVs are now the | centerpiece of every manufacturer's plans for the coming | decades, and that is because of Tesla. Whether they succeed as | a brand is not really important anymore. | robonerd wrote: | They could turn this around if they gave up on the futurologist | software bullshit and strived to simply sell battery-powered | cars. Stop selling dreams of robotaxis, just sell cars. | bbarnett wrote: | Or maybe use radar or real sensors, again. | nawgz wrote: | That doesn't sound like it would lead back to obscene | valuations decoupled from today's reality | extheat wrote: | Yes become a boring company nobody cares about like the rest | of the car industry. Nobody should try and innovate with | futuristic products and become bureaucratic behemoths like | the government, which has an excellent track record of | success. | freeflight wrote: | Having your paying customers act as alpha testers, for | software that can potentially injure and kill other people, | is imho not exactly the kind of "innovation" we should | strive for. | | Btw; Weird dig at "the governments success", considering a | whole lot of Musk's ventures wouldn't be around without all | kinds of government subsidies. | a9h74j wrote: | MFAKP? | rurp wrote: | For all of it's flaws the US govt _does_ have a remarkable | track record. It has presided over one of the most stable | and productive societies in history. Sure it hasn 't always | been great, and the future outlook isn't looking so strong | at the moment, but it has been wildly successful for the | past few centuries. | ken47 wrote: | Some form of Tesla would exist under this future. TSLA the | stock might not. | rtlfe wrote: | That sounds better for basically everybody except Elon. | t_mann wrote: | > CEO Elon Musk has often claimed that accidents cannot be the | fault of the company, as data it extracted invariably showed | Autopilot was not active in the moment of the collision. | | > NHTSA said it had discovered in 16 separate instances when this | occurred that Autopilot "aborted vehicle control less than one | second prior to the first impact," suggesting the driver was not | prepared to assume full control over the vehicle. | | Ouch. | gnicholas wrote: | Would this mean that Tesla would have to provide refunds for | customers who purchased FSD? If so, would they pro-rate the | refund based, as is customary under lemon law refunds? On the | flip side, could they be required to inflation-adjust the | refunds, so that customers get back the same purchasing power | that they spent? | | Separately, would this prevent Tesla from having a beta tester | group that tries out FSD features at no cost? | [deleted] | the8472 wrote: | They can still do the shadow driver thing for testing. | epgui wrote: | No, this is about autopilot, not FSD. And the actions being | considered would involve only an over the air update of the | software. | sva_ wrote: | What a shitty website, hacking the back button to confirm if I | want to leave. | Beltiras wrote: | I bought FSD version of Model 3 in the spring of 2020. I'm still | waiting for what I purchased to be turned on. Frankly, I'd be | psyched if they would expand on the little things instead of the | big things. "Park the car in that spot". "Exit the parking spot". | These would be worth the price I paid. | toast0 wrote: | I don't see why you don't return the car? It doesn't have what | you paid for. | TulliusCicero wrote: | The fact that we don't have reliable, fully automated parking | yet is bizarre. I'd love a solution that automatically parallel | parks for me, and a computer with sensors around the vehicle | should be able to do a better job. Plus, the problem is of | limited scope, and low speed, so you don't have to deal with | most of the potential issues and dangers with full self driving | on a road. | kwhitefoot wrote: | My 2015 Model S does parallel parking between two other cars | quite well. It will also reverse into the space between two | cars parked perpendicular to the road. | causality0 wrote: | Ford does that with Active Park Assist. | lima wrote: | Mercedes too, here's a demo: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz4Bm2jui-c | 331c8c71 wrote: | Also Peugeot/Citroen and VW/Audi. Probably all major car | manufacturers have it by now? | akmarinov wrote: | BMWs have had that for quite a while. My 2016 5 series does | it perfectly 100% of the time. It even gets into some spots | that I consider way too short, but it surprises me. | | I use it all the time, it's quick and easy. | pclmulqdq wrote: | Tesla doesn't have it. Many other automakers do offer that | functionality on their luxury lines. | TulliusCicero wrote: | This is weird to me because there's another comment reply | to me saying that their Model S has this functionality. | | So it looks like it's more common than I thought, but also | of mixed availability/awareness? | causality0 wrote: | _I bought FSD version of Model 3 in the spring of 2020_ | | I don't understand how people keep falling for this. Sure, it | seemed realistic enough at first but how many cracks in the | facade are too many to ignore? In 2015 Musk said two years. In | 2016 he said two years. In 2017 he said two years. Tesla did a | 180 on the _fundamental requirements_ of FSD and decided it | doesn 't need lidar just because they had a falling-out with | their lidar supplier. That level of ego-driven horseshit is | _dangerous_. | bagels wrote: | It's still not actually available to people who paid for it, | and it doesn't actually work* (at least not to a degree where | it can be trusted not to crash in to street signs or parked | cars). I have no idea why anyone pays a $10k premium for | vaporware. | tonguez wrote: | leobg wrote: | They had a falling out with MobileEye, who provided the AP | 1.0 hardware. It never used LIDAR. Tesla doesn't use LIDAR | because you need to solve vision anyway. And once you solve | that, LIDAR makes no more sense. | | (You need to solve vision anyway, because for that object, of | which LIDAR tells you is exactly 12.327 ft away, you still | need to figure out whether it is a trashcan or a child. And | if it is a child, whether it is about to jump on the road or | walking away from the road. LIDAR does not tell you these | things. It can only tell you how far they are away. It is not | some magical sensor which Tesla is just too cheap to employ.) | xaduha wrote: | > you still need to figure out whether it is a trashcan or | a child | | Why? First of all don't drive into anything that moves, | period. Secondly, if you can avoid bumping into anything at | all, do that. | a9h74j wrote: | IDK. Avoiding crashing into anything 12.327 ft way might be | considered a feature. | starik36 wrote: | I don't know. The latest version is insanely impressive. | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwduh2kRj3M | | I am cautiously optimistic about future of FSD in general | now. | systemvoltage wrote: | Wow, I haven't kept up with FSD but I am impressed. | zozbot234 wrote: | > In 2015 Musk said two years. In 2016 he said two years. In | 2017 he said two years. | | Look, the message is clear enough already: FSD is two years | away, and always will be! You've got to admire that kind of | consistency. | joakleaf wrote: | Unfortunately, it is not even consistent: | | * In January 2021 he said end of 2021 [2]. * In May 2022 he | said May 2023 [1]. | | So he moved from around 2 years to 1 year. | | Looking at the rate of progress from Tesla FSD videos on | YouTube, I wouldn't bet on 2023. | | Whenever people talk about Tesla FSD, I always like to | point to Cruise who just got a permit to carry paying | riders in California [3]. Honestly, their software looks | significantly smarter than Tesla's -- Highly recommend | their 'Cruise Under the Hood 2021' video for anyone | interested in self-driving![4] | | [1] https://electrek.co/2022/05/22/elon-musk-tesla-self- | driving-... | | [2] https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self- | drivi... | | [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- | transportation/self-d... | | [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJWN0K26NxQ | a9h74j wrote: | 2023 will be the year of FSDIRTYA on the Tesla. (FSD is | really two years away.) | Geee wrote: | If you have been following their updates, it looks like that | they have finally found the correct approach for FSD and it is | improving very quickly. At this rate, it seems that it'll be | close to level 5 this year or next year. | | Video of the latest version: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwduh2kRj3M | avalys wrote: | No kidding! | | The ability to use the phone or remote to move the car forward | or back in a straight line is super useful and a cool, novel | feature by itself. It's also a buggy piece of shit that a few | engineers could probably greatly improve in a month. Doesn't | seem like Tesla cares, it's been stagnant for years. | | Meanwhile Tesla is still charging people $10,000 for an FSD | function that doesn't exist. | mvgoogler wrote: | It's up to $12,000 now. | | https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview | hedora wrote: | What happens if the phone UI thread / touch screen hangs? | pclmulqdq wrote: | The charge isn't really for the FSD functionality. It's a | charge to cut the line. There is a long waitlist if you don't | pay for FSD. | cranekam wrote: | > The ability to use the phone or remote to move the car | forward or back in a straight line is super useful and a | cool, novel feature by itself. | | Is it? It's hard to think of a situation where moving a car | I'm at most a couple of hundred feet from backward or | forwards in a straight line by fiddling with my phone is | superior to just getting into the car and moving it myself. | Maybe I'm not finding myself and my car on opposite sides of | a gorge often enough? | avalys wrote: | I found it useful in a variety of circumstances. | | Someone parked too close to your driver's door? Just back | the car out remotely and get in. | | Parallel parked, then walked away from your car and noticed | you didn't leave the car behind enough space to exit | without scraping your bumper? Pull it forward a little | without getting back in. | | Parked in your driveway and need to move it three feet so | you have space to get the lawnmower out of the garage? Use | the remote. | | All of these use cases depend on the functionality being | fast and hassle-free to use. It works that well about 60% | of the time - the other 40% the phone fails to connect to | the car, or seems to connect but the car inexplicably | doesn't move, or gives a useless "Something went wrong" | error message, etc. | maybelsyrup wrote: | epgui wrote: | aaa_aaa wrote: | Your second try is even less funny. | la64710 wrote: | This stuff is scary and certainly more important than twitter | spam bots. | djcannabiz wrote: | epgui wrote: | To other commenters: this is a technical audit of autopilot | software, not Tesla FSD. | | And the actual context is much less of a big deal than it seems: | the biggest plausible consequence would be forcing Tesla to push | an over-the-air update with better driver attention monitoring or | alerting. | | I encourage reading the actual report. | dangrossman wrote: | The worst case outcome would require Tesla to disable the | autopilot suite entirely, for an indeterminate amount of time, | perhaps permanently on the existing fleet of vehicles. | | The NHTSA is tired of Tesla's hand-waving away their safety | investigations into Autopilot by pushing stealth updates that | fix specific scenarios in specific places being investigated. | NHTSA wisened up to that and independently purchased their own | Tesla vehicles, and disabled software updates, so that they can | reproduce those scenarios themselves. | | If NHTSA asks Tesla to provide system validation tests showing | that an updated version of their software meets the design | intent of the system, Tesla would not be able to do so. If they | can't prove the new Autopilot software corrects the safety- | related defects identified in the current version, then it's | not a valid recall remedy. | | All evidence from their own AI/AP team and presentations is | that there is no real design and system validation going on | over there. They're flying by the seat of their pants, | introducing potentially lethal regressions in every update. | AzzieElbab wrote: | If disabling FSD makes teslas less safe then what is the | point? Are they saying fsd can potentially go berserk? Are we | into future crime prevention? | hedora wrote: | Yes, in the same way that taking down an active gunman with | a loaded weapon is future crime prevention. | epgui wrote: | If you read the report, you will realize that NHTSA is | considering requiring Tesla to do better driver attention | monitoring, or to improve alerting. They are not considering | banning autopilot. | dragonwriter wrote: | > If you read the report, you will realize that NHTSA is | considering requiring Tesla to do better driver attention | monitoring, or to improve alerting | | If you read the report, you will realize that it says | nothing about NHTSA might do if the kind of defect they are | focussing on is confirmed. | | It is certainly the kind of defect where it is _plausible_ | that better attention monitoring and alerting _might_ be at | least a partial mitigation, but that 's about all you can | reasonably conclude on that from from the report. | dangrossman wrote: | I assure you, I'd already read the report before it was | shared here. I also assure you, there's more to the | investigation than that. | epgui wrote: | Perhaps, but that's speculation at best. | moralestapia wrote: | 99% of everything is speculation at best, even this site | is pretty much (high value) speculation as a service. | | The NHTSA has a reputation of not f*king around so I | would definitely side with @dangrossman on this thing. | | As of today, Autopilot IS dangerous software and it is | not something that should be tested live on the streets. | [deleted] | sumy23 wrote: | But you've been assured with absolutely no evidence /s. | [deleted] | wolverine876 wrote: | > The NHTSA is tired of Tesla's hand-waving away their safety | investigations into Autopilot by pushing stealth updates that | fix specific scenarios in specific places being investigated. | | Why isn't Tesla prosecuted for that? It's lawless! | jquery wrote: | It really is insane. It's one thing to have flaws, it's | quite another to stealth cover-them-up like it's a game of | hide and seek. | extheat wrote: | No, that's typical software development. Find a bug in | circulation, fix and deploy a fix. There are probably | hundreds of internal issues that get fixed per normal | protocol, as with any piece of software. Putting out a | "recall" or alert for every modification to the code is | pointless. What regulators need to do is keep up with the | times. They need to have their own safety test suite which | manufacturers can test against, and be independently | audited | hedora wrote: | They've been accused of silently pushing updates to fix | specific scenarios in order to gaslight the regulators. | | Imagine an airbag incorrectly deployed sometimes, and the | fix was to use a GPS geofence disable the airbag entirely | on the test track, but only on days when the regulator | was trying to reproduce spurious airbag deployments, not | on crash test days. | bdavis__ wrote: | No, it is not. You sure don't do it in aerospace. Each | change is verified, the entire system is validated prior | to a release. | rtlfe wrote: | > No, that's typical software development. | | Software that controls multi-thousand pound machines at | 70+mph isn't typical, and typical practices don't | necessarily apply. | codebolt wrote: | Yes, those practices absolutely shouldn't apply for self | driving cars. Good luck regression testing how a system | change impacts the AI handling of every edge case of | traffic. | sidibe wrote: | Waymo does this. Their infrastructure costs would be | astronomical though if not attached to a company with its | own cloud | idealmedtech wrote: | It seems like the test suites for these deep learning | based models are themselves almost comprehensive | knowledge bases from which you could build a more | traditional control software. | cool_dude85 wrote: | Sorry, typical software development is for a national | regulator to find some illegal feature in your website, | and then you disable the feature for specific IP ranges | or geofenced areas where the regulator's office is? No, I | don't think it is. | Apocryphon wrote: | Typical software development as practiced by Uber, | perhaps | pyrale wrote: | > They need to have their own safety test suite which | manufacturers can test against | | Coaxing regulators into producing a test that can be | optimized for is exactly how we got the WW scandal. | | > What regulators need to do is keep up with the times. | | Keeping up with the times sounds awfully like allowing | insane things because some whiz kid believes there's no | difference between a car and a website. | Bubble_Pop_22 wrote: | > No, that's typical software development. | | Cars will never be software, much like pacemakers and | ICDs won't ever be software | vkou wrote: | > No, that's typical software development. | | It's not typical software development in life-critical | systems. If you think it is, you should not be working on | life-critical systems. | ajross wrote: | > introducing potentially lethal regressions in every update. | | Meh. I mean, I understand the emotional content of that | argument, and the propriety angle is real enough. I really do | get what you're saying. And if your prior is "Tesla is bad", | that's going to be really convincing. But if it's not... | | The bottom line is that they're getting close to 3M of these | vehicles on the roads now. You can't spit without hitting one | in the south bay. And the accident statistics just aren't | there. They're not. There's a small handful of verifiable | accidents, all on significantly older versions of the | software. Bugs are real. They've happened before and they'll | no doubt happen again, just like they do with every other | product. | | But the Simple Truth remains that these are very safe cars. | They are. So... what exactly are people getting upset about? | Because it doesn't seem to be what people claim they're | getting upset about. | ken47 wrote: | Total straw man. The question isn't whether Tesla's are | safe to drive. The question is whether "autopilot" is safe | to auto pilot. | Retric wrote: | Actual real world data says autopilot is on average at | least as safe as the average driver in the average car. | Of course that's on average, in many specific situations | it's much worse but conversely it means it's better in | other situations. | | How regulators deal with this frankly tricky as the same | will likely apply to all self driving systems. | justapassenger wrote: | By actual real world data, you mean cherry picked average | data published by Tesla, that doesn't account for any | bias, and wasn't audited by independent third parties? | ken47 wrote: | Sources for claims would be appreciated. | usrusr wrote: | Those real world autopilot averages happen exclusively in | the most trivial driving situations. Fair weather and | almost exclusively on limited access roads. No real world | average driver dataset exists that is similarly | restricted to the subset of least error-prone driving | situations. | Retric wrote: | Fair weather limited access highways is one of many | datasets available. However, Autopilot operates in wet | and rainy conditions so that's hardly an accurate | assessment. Weather isn't actually that big of a | percentage of accounts. | | "On average, there are over 5,891,000 vehicle crashes | each year. Approximately 21% of these crashes - nearly | 1,235,000 - are weather-related" " 70% on wet pavement | and 46% during rainfall. A much smaller percentage of | weather-related crashes occur during winter conditions: | 18% during snow or sleet, 13% occur on icy pavement and | 16% of weather-related crashes take place on snowy or | slushy pavement. Only 3% happen in the presence of fog." | | https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/q1_roadimpact.htm | dragonwriter wrote: | > Actual real world data says autopilot is on average at | least as safe as the average driver in the average car. | | Unless this is on the same road and conditions, instead | of "autopilot where and when used vs. real drivers | everywhere and everywhen" it is meaningless, even moreso | if it doesn't also account for "autopilot disengages | immediately before anticipated collision so it doesn't | count as driving when it occurred." | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: | If autopilot disengages 1 second before crashing into a | stationary object, does this count as autopilot crashing | or the human driver? | | Is autopilot engaged in the places where crashes are | frequent, eg. during left turns? | | What are the "scenario-equalized" safety stats for | autopilot vs human drivers? | kylecordes wrote: | Tesla's statistics count it as autopilot if it was | engaged within 5 seconds of the collision. | | It seems reasonable for a regulator to decide what that | time span is and require all automated driving assist | systems to report in a consistent way. I'm curious what % | of the time a crash in a typical car occurs within N | seconds of cruise control or lane assist or traffic aware | cruise control engaged. | hedora wrote: | The article says they're using a 1 second threshold, not | 5, and that a substantial number of accidents fall | between the two numbers. | jquery wrote: | It's also worth noting Tesla is nearly infamous at this | point for making owners sign NDAs in exchange for repairs | when their autopilot is likely at fault. | bbarnett wrote: | Really? Wow. That's a lawsuit waiting to happen. | | No way would I sign, and they'd fix it, or see me in | court. | | And not rich guy wins US court, but Canadian court. And | yeah, it's different. | ev1 wrote: | Don't you have to waive your right to sue in the US to | purchase or boot a Tesla? | [deleted] | gamblor956 wrote: | Tesla leads the world in driving fatalities related to AP | and FSD-type systems. | | The entire rest of the industry has 1 fatality. Tesla has | dozens, and 14 of those are old enough (and located in the | right country) to be part of this investigation. (The | multiple Tesla autopilot/FSD fatalities from 2022, | including the 3 from last month, are not part of this | investigation.) | zozbot234 wrote: | The proper comparison is AP vs. other SAE Level 2 systems | throughout the industry. | hedora wrote: | So, the rest of the industry has at most one fatality? | How does that change the conclusion? | baryphonic wrote: | > All evidence from their own AI/AP team and presentations is | that there is no real design and system validation going on | over there. They're flying by the seat of their pants, | introducing potentially lethal regressions in every update. | | What is this evidence? | | I've seen a few talks from Andrej Karpathy that indicate to | me a more deliberate approach.[0] "Software 2.0" itself seems | like an approach meant to systematize the development, | validation & testing of AI systems, hardly a seat-of-your- | pants approach to releases. I have my own criticisms of their | approach, but it seems there is pretty deliberate care taken | when developing models. | | [0] https://youtu.be/hx7BXih7zx8 | justapassenger wrote: | I've been working few years ago at a very big tech company, | focusing on validation of the AI systems. | | It's all smoke and mirrors. You cannot perform proper | validation of AI systems. Rollbacks of new versions of ML | models are very common in production, and even after very | extensive validation you can see that real life results are | nothing like what tests have shown. | stefan_ wrote: | This is the Karpathy that gave a big talk about how vision | was superior to radar when Tesla dropped all radar units at | the height of the chip crisis. Now they are bringing radar | back. | | Give it a few years and they will probably introduce LIDAR. | pbronez wrote: | Tesla is bringing Radar back? First I've heard about it, | and good news if true. | kelnos wrote: | > _What is this evidence?_ | | I think the onus should be on Tesla to prove that their | testing and validation methodology is sufficient. Until and | unless they have done so, Autopilot should be completely | disabled. | | I really don't get why the regulatory environment is so | behind here. None of these driver assistance technologies | (from any manufacturer, not just Tesla) should be by | default legal to put in a car. | phkahler wrote: | >> They're flying by the seat of their pants, introducing | potentially lethal regressions in every update. | | >> What is this evidence? | | Without a documented development and testing program, every | development is essentially this. | refulgentis wrote: | I see your point, to OP's point, I know a couple people who | were horrified at what they saw and it did not match this | public talk. Both started at least 6 months after this | video, and both left Tesla within 8 months, of their own | volition. Unfortunately, off the record. | | Not to disparage Andrej, sometimes (frequently, even) what | executive leadership thinks is going is not the day-to-day | reality of the team. | plankers wrote: | can confirm, a former coworker had just come from Tesla 5 | years ago and he had serious ethical problems with his | work over there. Tesla is killing people through | negligence and greed, it's pretty disgusting, but par for | the course | dragonwriter wrote: | > the biggest plausible consequence would be forcing Tesla to | push an over-the-air update with better driver attention | monitoring or alerting. | | I see no basis for this conclusion, which appears to be pure | speculation about what NHTSA might decide is necessary and | sufficient to address the potential problems if confirmed by | the deeper analysis. I encourage reading the actual report. | | > I encourage reading the actual report. | | I did, and the conclusion do which you appeal to it does not | appear to be well-supported by it. | Isinlor wrote: | Do you have the link to the report? | dangrossman wrote: | It's in the article: | https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INOA-EA22002-3184.PDF | justapassenger wrote: | Tesla has no hardware for proper driver monitoring. Most of | model S have no internal camera. And model 3 internal camera | wasn't designed for it (doesn't work in the dark, cannot see | through sunglasses, cannot see where your eyes are actually | pointing, etc). | | You cannot OTA HW deficiencies. | | Now, will they be forced to have monitoring like that, to be on | par with their competitors? That's a different story, and given | how weak USA regulatory agencies are, and how reckless Tesla is | at disregarding them - I'm pretty sure Tesla won't be hurt by | it. | zionic wrote: | Because that's a stupid system. I will _never_ accept being | under camera surveillance constantly by the car, no matter | what stupid name people come up for it ("attention | monitoring") | [deleted] | muttantt wrote: | CamperBob2 wrote: | What I'm afraid of is that the people in my society with large | amounts of money, power, weapons, and influence are acting like | a bunch of sixth-graders. | | I'm not asking for miracles. I just want the crazy to stop. | jonahbenton wrote: | How many government agencies can Elon Musk piss off at once? | herpderperator wrote: | > Since Tesla vehicles can have their software overwritten via a | wireless connection to the cloud [...] | | Tangential, and we all knew this happens already, but wow, it | sounds crazy that we live in a world where a car can completely | change its operation based on someone somewhere pressing a button | on their computer. | mensetmanusman wrote: | Considering the personalities involved, I wouldn't be surprised | if a recall is issued, and then the recall is canceled when a new | administration gets voted in. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-06-11 23:00 UTC)