[HN Gopher] A chat with Ray Dalio
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A chat with Ray Dalio
Author : marban
Score : 39 points
Date : 2022-06-12 11:55 UTC (11 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (thehustle.co)
(TXT) w3m dump (thehustle.co)
| scrubs wrote:
| Dalio:
|
| "I'm a capitalist. I believe in capitalism. But I think
| everything's got to be reformed. The bottom 60% of the population
| has not had a rise in per-capita income since 1980. There are big
| opportunity gaps in areas like education ... I almost don't care
| what's done as long as it's bipartisan. The most important thing
| is that we have to develop a solid middle -- a bipartisanship of
| smart people who can work together across party lines to make the
| reforms."
|
| Amen to that.
|
| Since the 1980s debt, currency account deficits have risen under
| both parties. There's nothing in sight from either party that
| suggests either had the appetite or aptitude to do a darn thing
| about it. Paul Ryan? Please. He took a zero here. Democrats
| definitely deserve criticism about constantly talking the income
| side rather than the spend side, thereby leaving spending all for
| the Republicans to soap-box on. But you wanna know what?
| Republicans can spend money just fine too.
|
| Some things I'd like to see for the USA. Our kids - yours and
| mine both --- are getting screwed over right now:
|
| - A 25% shift back to US based supplied chains
|
| - A plan to bound the current account deficit and debt. We need
| the US dollar to continue to be a desirable reserve currency
|
| - A short term plan to get our hands and Europe's hands on fossil
| fuels, and complement our portfolio for electrically with
| fission. In the medium to longer term fossil fuels need to become
| an under 30% energy source. I do worry about climate. Modern
| countries have no experience fixing problems like bees gone (so
| agriculture suffers), or temperature beyond human control. Energy
| independence will reduce our need to get involved in wars.
|
| - A return to the middle. Frankly that's where the power is, and
| it's where the fun is especially if you like direct and powerful
| criticism. In Washington DC it's twice the target rich
| environment: you can hammer Rs and Ds. DC is like the first half
| the Breakfast club: it's regressed to stupid inbred, sterile
| clubs. If we can meet in the middle we can grind off the silly
| right and left. MLK is a great example here: he neither sat on
| his hands or went to violence. He stayed the middle requiring
| more backbone, guts, intellect, a better message for all, and
| better organizational skills to get people engaged despite being
| a really tough problem.
| latchkey wrote:
| Invest in education.
| cko wrote:
| I'm not so sure about his metrics on what makes a country
| declining and another rising. He gathers data like education
| level and debt and creates an overall score for each country.
|
| He's been pushing this narrative for a while, and his Bridgewater
| fund has a heavy China tilt, but I'm also watching Polymatter
| videos which makes me a China bear.
| sharadov wrote:
| He is a Sinophile - I sort of agreed with him till couple years
| back, but then looking at China's zero covid policy, Xi's
| autocratic rule on steroids and foreign policy gaffes and a
| distinct change in policy which doesn't really care about the
| economy - makes me wonder why he is still so bullish on China.
| Probably has some ulterior motives with his fund or just plain
| loves being in the media eye.
| Barrin92 wrote:
| >which doesn't really care about the economy
|
| I think investors don't buy this because long term population
| health and state capacity are significantly more important
| 10, 20, 30 years down the line than short term disruptions,
| and that is why investors are bullish on China.
|
| Shutting a port down for one month is bad, having a hundred
| million people struggle with long covid is _a lot_ worse. The
| bull case is pretty simple. The country has governance that
| is effective enough to tackle problems that most other places
| have given up on, even if it isn 't particularly pretty in
| the short run.
| agumonkey wrote:
| Is he listened to by serious people ? He sure has a following
| on youtube, people are parroting his ideas on a weekly basis..
| whether he's right or wrong only matters if people in control
| are influenced too..
| ironSkillet wrote:
| China appears to have a massive demographics problem on their
| horizon, largely self-inflicted.
| puranjay wrote:
| Zeihan has the same thesis, plus insurmountable geographical
| challenges.
|
| Really hard to root for a country that now has a population
| rhomboid instead of a population pyramid. Soon to turn into
| an inverse pyramid aka a reverse ponzi where the old work to
| keep the few young alive.
| jpgvm wrote:
| That is certainly true but they also seem willing to go much
| further than any country has before in an attempt to reverse
| their population growth decline.
| puranjay wrote:
| Still not convinced any measure can change the direction
| unless capitalism and the experiences and lifestyles it
| enables are killed completely.
|
| No amount of incentives have managed to push fertility rate
| above replacement level in any country as far as I can
| remember.
|
| The data from countries like India also shows that as soon
| as any region experiences even moderate prosperity, birth
| rates drop like a rock. Heck, India's fertility rate is now
| below replacement level and it happened waaay ahead of
| schedule.
| nuclearnice3 wrote:
| what measures have they taken?
| jpgvm wrote:
| The biggest one has been deflating their property bubble.
| It still remains woefully unaffordable but they have
| stalled the relentless rise in housing costs and have
| started to even bring them down in some cities. Their
| "housing is for living, not speculation" policy along
| with 3 red lines and directives to deleverage developer
| firms are all taking effect.
|
| They banned for-profit tutoring to bring down the cost of
| raising children (but also ensure children have time to
| be children). These services are now offered by or in-
| cooperation with the state school system and no-longer
| teach the same subjects as are taught during normal
| school hours. i.e they basically converted it into
| educational after-school day-care that is strictly non-
| profit.
|
| 1 child policy was replaced by 2 child policy, then 3 and
| finally abolished. Ironically this was only ever applied
| to Han Chinese, minorities like Ughyrs have always had
| uncapped family sizes (another massively misunderstood
| fact about China but getting into it would just lead to
| downvote brigade by people that have never even been to
| China).
|
| So yeah the plan is to reduce cost of living, drive down
| costs of having children in particular, allow people to
| have as many children as they want and soon I imagine we
| will see direct incentives to have children.
| seibelj wrote:
| Private tutoring will always be available to the rich.
| The various bans on personal freedom will keep life
| mediocre and ambitions small for the majority.
|
| China won't reverse anything and their authoritarian
| nature will (as always) lead to ruin.
| chiefalchemist wrote:
| If you compared China minus 50 years with China of today
| then ruin doesn't look so bad.
|
| Take away The West's (citizens) bailing out their
| financial markets (circa 2007 / 08) and again
| authoritarian ruin doesn't look so bad.
|
| I'm not stumping for China or authoritarianism; only
| pointing out that it's early days and there's more to
| that picture than brash big brush judgements.
| pm90 wrote:
| Authoritarianism doesn't always lead to ruin. It does
| have negative effects (stifling innovation, increasing
| likelihood of disastrous civil wars and revolutions etc.)
| but its not a given.
|
| With China, we've seen it go both ways: Disaster under
| Mao and revitalization under Deng Xiaoping. What will
| leadership under Xi look like? Remains to be seen.
| mr90210 wrote:
| Have you lived in an authoritarian country?
| [deleted]
| math wrote:
| Michael Pettis did a great interview recently that covers why
| growth in China is likely to stall:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WE5VczIFGZA
| jpgvm wrote:
| Stall no. Moderate yes.
|
| I think a large part depends on if they are able to translate
| their infrastructure spending away from unprofitable or
| marginally profitable ventures like bridges into high-tech
| nuclear industry, more battery and solar tech, semi-
| conductors & lithography, etc.
|
| They are certainly capable (we saw that with EVs, batteries
| and solar already) but proof will be in the pudding.
| swman wrote:
| Is it wrong though? Maybe its because my immigrant (S. Asian)
| parents emphasized education heavily so they busted their ass
| to put me into the best public school districts. Believe me,
| being the poorest kid in school had its downsides, but doing
| well in school and sports was a great equalizer.
|
| Now that I'm in my 30s and interact with the broader world, I
| can't help but realize that most people I meet outside of tech
| are... how do I say this? Not that bright? I'm talking people
| who can't add small numbers or multiply, and seem to have short
| term goals and interests. BTW these people are in the same
| socioeconomic level (or better, as many of them own property
| here within their family) as my family when we were brand new
| to this country.
|
| In Los Angeles the schools are garbage and failing for the most
| part, and it is pretty sad to see the result - adults who can
| barely make ends meet and continue the cycle. Since I'm in the
| tech bubble, everyone else I hang out with is quite well to do
| and smart, but any time I've met people outside of this bubble
| I feel depressed and sad.
|
| Like I said, I grew up in the districts where most of the
| people were focused on providing a good education for their
| kids. It was in the midwest suburbs right outside of the city
| metro, and my peers were involved in sports and also studying.
| Our football/basketball team were AP/honor roll students who
| also played in the orchestra, and most of them went on to
| higher education and have really good careers. When I see their
| Linkedin updates, I'm always happy to have been around such
| people who also motivated me.
|
| I honestly believe that China, India, and other Asian countries
| will dominate the next century and beyond. They're pumping out
| engineers (people who can think, use their brain) while
| Americans talk shit about themselves and want to degrade. The
| USA needs to stop treating children like equals/adults (they're
| not, their brains are still developing) and focus on making
| sure their kids can think their way out of a box instead of
| crying or needing therapy (just stop giving them iPad games
| since they're 2 years old to make them shut up). We need to get
| off this addiction to instant gratification - that leads to
| mental retardation because when people don't have to think of
| alternatives or creative ways to do things, MOST people will
| just be lazy. We've proven this in animals, and we see it every
| day with people.
|
| I'm honestly pondering if I should raise my family in the same
| midwestern suburbs I grew up in because I can't see my kids
| succeeding here in California. The schools suck, the people are
| not interested in education, and tech basically carries this
| state in terms of brainpower.
| DwnVoteHoneyPot wrote:
| If China and India are going to be so great, why aren't they
| so great already? Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Korea
| all industrialized faster and have a higher standard of
| living - all did it in the 1980s - 40 years ago.
| ectopod wrote:
| Those countries had been laying the foundations since WWII.
| China didn't get going until after Mao's death in 1976.
| swman wrote:
| India got independence in 1947... from the British Empire.
|
| USA has been independent since 1776.
|
| And notice I said "century". Were you educated in America?
| ldjkfkdsjnv wrote:
| Yeah I see I dont think Dalio is actually correct. I think he
| and bridgewater were the right place at the right time 30 years
| ago when they started. Returns at the fund actually havent been
| that amazing. I think he partly likes being in the public eye,
| and then its also good marketing for his firm.
| seibelj wrote:
| _Everyone_ who is giving interviews likes being in the public
| eye. It's extremely easy not to give interviews - unless you
| did something like a big crime or are the center of a big
| story accidentally, you actually have to go out of your way
| to continue being famous.
|
| It's also why I'm suspect of everyone famous. It's just such
| a warped personality that seeks and maintains a public
| persona. Not saying that they are evil or bad people - just
| that their motivations are very suspicious and you should be
| extremely critical of what a public person says. The vast
| majority of successful and wealthy people are not public
| figures and don't try and parlay their opinions into personal
| fame.
| pm90 wrote:
| Good rule of thumb in general.
|
| One technique Ive found of understanding if someone is
| genuinely knowledgeable or faking it is to read their books
| or listen to long form podcasts (not just interviews). More
| data points create a more complete picture.
| chiefalchemist wrote:
| Also probably more complete in the sense an interview is
| likely to be edited (to establish or reflect a particular
| narrative). Along the same lives the interviewer and
| questions are often set up in advance to accomplish the
| same.
| IAmGraydon wrote:
| The parallels between Dalio's ideas and those of William Strauss
| and Neil Howe (The Fourth Turning) make me wonder if he read
| their works and based his own theories off theirs.
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