[HN Gopher] Lilium achieves first main wing transition for all-e...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Lilium achieves first main wing transition for all-electric
       aircraft [video]
        
       Author : tomohawk
       Score  : 313 points
       Date   : 2022-06-12 15:10 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.youtube.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.youtube.com)
        
       | dwighttk wrote:
       | What percentage of available battery did that 4 minute loop take?
        
         | _Microft wrote:
         | I would guess a considerable percentage because launching and
         | landing takes a disproportional amount of power. Iirc their
         | information correctly then launching and landing takes 10x as
         | much power as level flight. That's because in these situations
         | lift has to be generated by the fans instead of the wings. So
         | short flights are actually disadvantageous.
        
       | 01100011 wrote:
       | Shower thought: Is anyone working on ground-assisted takeoff of
       | aircraft using something like an aircraft catapult? It seems like
       | it would be fairly straightforward to provide the initial
       | momentum of an aircraft and save a bit of fuel & weight. Sure,
       | you're not gaining _much_ just getting the aircraft up to takeoff
       | speed, but it seems like an easy way to make commercial flights
       | more efficient.
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | https://www.talyn.com/
        
         | drexlspivey wrote:
         | I think I am going to stick with the commercial flights without
         | the catapult if this ever happens
        
         | blktiger wrote:
         | The short answer is that catapult systems are expensive and
         | require a lot of maintenance. Even many Navies don't use
         | catapult assisted launches for that very reason. Additionally,
         | commercial aircraft aren't designed for that kind of force
         | applied to their main gear. They'd most likely have to be
         | modified.
        
           | chipsa wrote:
           | Naval catapults don't apply force to the main gear either.
           | Mostly is to the nose gear now, but it used to through the
           | use of bridles to points on the wing (and wing spar). The
           | bridles were a pain though, so they transitioned everything
           | to the nose gear attachment. You can tell when a carrier
           | transitioned, because they took the bridle catchers off the
           | bow (the little narrow ramps at the front).
        
           | 01100011 wrote:
           | I wonder what sort of force you could generate with a series
           | of electric coils in the ground? It lacks moving parts, so it
           | should be low maintenance. You'd need magnets on the gear of
           | the plane, offsetting the weight savings though. Yeah, you'd
           | definitely need to reinforce the landing gear, but I think
           | that's doable.
        
         | pilot7378535 wrote:
         | Yes, for gliders:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glider_(sailplane)#Launch_and_...
         | 
         | Also related: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_carriage
        
           | yosito wrote:
           | Last summer, I rode in a Rubik R-26 Gobe glider, invented by
           | the father of the man who invented the Rubik's cube.
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubik_R-26_Gobe
           | 
           | Pretty fun experience. And if commercial airplanes ever start
           | using this sort of launching technology, I imagine the
           | takeoff would feel a lot smoother.
        
       | robonerd wrote:
       | This is kind of cool, but I'm skeptical that these sort of planes
       | will ever be practical as much more than rich people toys. The
       | power density of even speculative near-future batteries favors
       | small airplanes and short flights. This doesn't really mesh into
       | the existing aviation industry, so proponents of these small
       | electric planes usually propose creating new markets entirely;
       | e.g. _Uber for Helicopters_. But I 'm pretty skeptical that laws
       | will allow regular operation of these in residential
       | neighborhoods for long, if at all.
       | 
       | Also, where is the vertical stabilizer and rudder? I assume
       | they're using differential thrust in powered flight, but what if
       | they lose power? Can this plane be controlled in a glide?
        
         | rklaehn wrote:
         | The energy density of gasoline does not matter at all.
         | Batteries are good enough for some applications, like short
         | distance flights. And the operating costs for use cases where
         | batteries work _strongly_ favour batteries.
         | 
         | Power density has not been a problem for a while. We are not
         | anywhere near the theoretical limits of battery energy density.
         | So as soon as there are some commercial applications for
         | battery powered flight, there will be a strong economic
         | incentive to get closer to the theoretical limits.
         | 
         | Current jet engines are absolute engineering miracles that go
         | very close to the physical limits to get maximum efficiency.
         | But it took several decades to get there.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | There is already a lot of economic incentive for lighter
           | batteries.
        
             | rklaehn wrote:
             | Yes, and they are improving by a few percent every year. No
             | major breakthroughs, but compounding improvements year over
             | year, which do add up.
             | 
             | Batteries have improved incredibly in my lifetime. As a kid
             | I had an electric RC plane that barely made it off the
             | ground. Now you can get pretty cheap aerobatic RC planes
             | that easily compete with gasoline powered models.
             | 
             | Battery powered screwdrivers used to be incredibly
             | underpowered. Now I have a very decent battery powered
             | rotary hammer...
             | 
             | https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-
             | content/uploads/2021/05/bnef_...
        
           | robonerd wrote:
           | > _The energy density of gasoline does not matter at all._
           | 
           | Well if we're talking about commercial aviation, we're
           | talking about jet fuel not gasoline. Regardless, it obviously
           | matters a lot. A fully loaded 747 freighter has somewhere
           | around 200 tons of jet fuel and a max payload of about 130
           | tons. They already need more fuel than cargo, and that's
           | _with_ the excellent energy density of jet fuel. Furthermore,
           | traditional planes get lighter the longer they fly as they
           | burn off their substantial fuel loads. The last 20% of the
           | fuel goes a lot further than the first 20%. Batteries don 't
           | get this advantage at all. (Dropping batteries from the plane
           | with parachutes is a terrible idea, but I've lost count of
           | the number of times I've seen it proposed..)
           | 
           | > _We are not anywhere near the theoretical limits of battery
           | energy density._
           | 
           | This doesn't jive with what I've read. It's my understanding
           | that we're already near the limits of what electrochemistry
           | can give us, and future advancements are likely to come from
           | improved electrode designs, with maybe 2-3x better
           | performance possible if we're lucky.
        
             | tremon wrote:
             | _Dropping batteries from the plane with parachutes is a
             | terrible idea, but I 've lost count of the number of times
             | I've seen it proposed_
             | 
             | Perhaps, but there is also the middle-ground solution to
             | use a booster rocket assembly similar to what the space
             | shuttle uses. The booster can use its own battery packs and
             | if needed its own additional engines, and when the plane
             | has reached cruising altitude, the booster can decouple and
             | return to the airport of departure.
        
             | rklaehn wrote:
             | > Well if we're talking about commercial aviation, we're
             | talking about jet fuel not gasoline. Regardless, it
             | obviously matters a lot. A fully loaded 747 freighter has
             | somewhere around 200 tons of jet fuel and a max payload of
             | about 130 tons.
             | 
             | You only need giant quantities of kerosene for transoceanic
             | or transcontinental travel. The lilium business model
             | requires a range of a few 100 km, which is possible with
             | today's batteries.
             | 
             | Very long distance air travel is impossible with today's
             | commercially available batteries, but is possible with
             | exotic chemistries (see below) or with hydrogen fuel cells.
             | 
             | > This doesn't jive with what I've read. It's my
             | understanding that we're already near the limits of what
             | electrochemistry can give us, and future advancements are
             | likely to come from improved electrode designs, with maybe
             | 2-3x better performance possible if we're lucky.
             | 
             | There are several battery chemistries such as lithium
             | sulfur or lithium air that have extremely high energy
             | densities. But cycle life remains very low, which makes
             | them uneconomical.
             | 
             | There has been decent progress made in improving cycle
             | life, but it is still too low to be economical. There are
             | military applications where a low cycle life is acceptable.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _a range of a few 100 km, which is possible with today
               | 's batteries._
               | 
               | Not with a meaningful amount of cargo it isn't; look up
               | the electric planes that are actually flying today (and
               | it's certainly not for want of trying, this is a very
               | trendy field.) I can think of only a few niches where
               | very light but expensive cargo _needs_ to go somewhere
               | close-by, but faster than is possible with a truck.
               | Organs for transplant, and rich people.
        
               | FullyFunctional wrote:
               | The cargo here is humans
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | But can you carry enough of them to make the whole thing
               | worth it?
        
         | DennisP wrote:
         | It used to mesh a lot better, when general aviation was much
         | bigger than it is now and we had lots of tiny airports. Maybe
         | we could get back to that. VTOL makes it a bit easier.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | If you have even a tiny airport with a real runway then you
           | can operate fixed-wing aircraft (possibly electric powered)
           | without the extra cost and risk inherent to VTOL. Lillium and
           | their competitors in the e-VTOL space are trying to create a
           | new market for urban air mobility by bypassing airports and
           | building new heliports, but even if they can solve the
           | technical and legal challenges it's unclear if the economics
           | will work.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Powered lift aircraft are not controllable in a glide, nor are
         | they capable of autorotation like a helicopter. Any complete
         | loss of power will result in an unrecoverable spin. For safety
         | these aircraft rely on redundant systems, plus a parachute.
         | 
         | Finding landing sites is going to be a major challenge even if
         | they can solve the battery problems. New York City could be a
         | prime market but there are only a few heliports. Politics and
         | safety issues make it difficult to construct more.
        
           | robonerd wrote:
           | > _New York City could be a prime market but there are only a
           | few heliports._
           | 
           | Afaik rooftop helipads have been banned in NYC ever since an
           | accident in 1977 killed five people.
        
             | merely-unlikely wrote:
             | There are three heliports on the rivers around Manhattan.
             | There's plenty of space to build more but noise complaints
             | prevent that from happening. Bezos wanted to build one on
             | the Queens waterfront (LIC) but the city killed the idea.
        
           | bluejekyll wrote:
           | Any idea what the minimum height for the parachute to be
           | effective as a life saving device?
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Minimum effective altitude for parachutes on light aircraft
             | is about 400 ft agl, but the exact number varies depending
             | on the flight regime. For powered lift aircraft there is
             | likely a small "dead zone" in the flight envelope: too high
             | to survive a crash, too low for the parachute to be
             | effective. This may or may not be acceptable depending on
             | mission risk tolerance and the reliability of other
             | systems.
             | 
             | https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-
             | news/2018/march/flig...
        
               | GordonS wrote:
               | > too high to survive a crash, too low for the parachute
               | to be effective
               | 
               | This is probably a silly question, but couldn't the pilot
               | just wait until the plane dropped below the dead zone
               | before deploying the parachute?
        
               | Andrew_nenakhov wrote:
               | The lower the craft drops, the deader the zone.
        
               | chipsa wrote:
               | You're thinking about the dead zone in the wrong way:
               | There's a height X where you can drop the aircraft and
               | it'll absorb all the forces to have the people live.
               | There's a height Y where the parachute has enough time to
               | deploy and bring the aircraft to terminal velocity. If X
               | is less than Y, there's a height where there's nothing to
               | save you.
               | 
               | Options to resolve this are: make X higher by making the
               | structure able to absorb more energy, or make Y lower by
               | having it deploy faster.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | The Cirrus SR22 needs ~1000ft above ground to effectively
             | deploy the airframe parachute in a spin.
        
         | Simon_O_Rourke wrote:
         | I'm guessing that if it loses power during flight then it's
         | curtains for the airframe and anyone unlucky enough to be in
         | it.
         | 
         | There's lots more work to do to push it out to the mass market,
         | but I could definitely see a niche for it.
        
           | themitigating wrote:
           | That's the same if a jet engine losses power
        
             | CoastalCoder wrote:
             | The movie Sully [0] opened my eyes to the amazing glide
             | ratio of a commercial passenger plane like the A320. (I'm
             | assuming that the movie was pretty accurate in that
             | regard.)
             | 
             | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sully_(film)
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Yes, the movie was accurate in that regard.
        
             | t0mas88 wrote:
             | Passenger jets have very good glide ratios. A 747 gliding
             | with no power (all four engines somehow broken) from
             | 10,000ft will get even further than a small Cessna 172
             | doing the same.
             | 
             | This is counter intuitive to even most pilots, but it's how
             | efficient the wing design on a passenger jet is. Their lift
             | to drag ratio is better than small planes.
        
               | fullstackchris wrote:
               | Is this achievable by the size of the craft itself? Or
               | the fact that these bigger planes have 1000s of engineers
               | behind them optimizing every possible factor to squeak
               | out the best possible lift to drag ratio?
        
             | p_l wrote:
             | Nope.
             | 
             | Look at the tiny wings, and at what speed it still depended
             | on vertical thrust. It's going to have _horrible_ glide
             | ratio, which means unpowered landings might be, well, not a
             | thing, which leaves you only with emergency full-plane
             | parachute as an option.
             | 
             | Pretty much all jet engine planes can do unpowered landings
             | in glide, though admittedly some have pretty high speeds
             | involved - but then they operate by default only on
             | airports that have facilities for such speeds.
        
               | oliveshell wrote:
               | See this famous example, where a jet airliner ran out of
               | fuel in flight and glided to a successful landing:
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_Glider
        
               | kayodelycaon wrote:
               | Also Air Transat Flight 236.
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | If a [civilian] jet aircraft loses an engine, it's still a
             | strong favorite to end that flight upright, intact, and on
             | a runway. There are a couple dozen jet engine failures per
             | year; the overwhelming majority end up in a safe
             | conclusion.
             | 
             | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jet-engine-failures-rare-
             | usuall...
        
           | mrfusion wrote:
           | Why not add a parachute? Some small planes actually build one
           | in.
        
             | merely-unlikely wrote:
             | I like those a lot but they only help above some altitude
             | (I think it's something like 300 or 600 ft). Ie they won't
             | save you during VTOL
        
           | codingdave wrote:
           | Airplanes glide. Some better than others, but they do glide.
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | That's the whole point of GP's comment. Planes glide with
             | the control afforded by a rudder and a vertical stabilizer.
             | Without that, it ain't pretty.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Powered lift aircraft are not controllable in a glide, nor
             | are they capable of autorotation like a helicopter. Any
             | complete loss of power will result in an unrecoverable
             | spin. For safety these aircraft rely on redundant systems,
             | plus a parachute.
        
             | kayodelycaon wrote:
             | I think this "plane" has a glide ratio that's only slightly
             | better than a thrown rock.
        
           | crubier wrote:
           | If they aren't stupid (And I bet they aren't), they made
           | several independent redundant power system. I think
           | distributed power systems (i.e. lots of small engines) is
           | actually on of Lilium's main strength, can be made very
           | reliable.
           | 
           | Lost 2 batteries and 7 rotors, fine, there's still 6
           | batteries and 25 rotors left. Or something like that
        
           | barnabask wrote:
           | Check out their other video posted around the same time as
           | this one, especially the part about changing the wheel design
           | to allow for rolling landings. Seems like regulators had the
           | same concern.
           | 
           | https://youtu.be/qZ73PftBfFg
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | Enjoy the engineering achievement in the moment.
        
         | kurthr wrote:
         | A lot of the electric (mostly fuel cell) aviation startup
         | industry is funded/supported by currently profitable aviation
         | companies. The 1000hp motors for them are, like the airframes,
         | one of the mostly off-the-shelf elements of their development.
         | 
         | I agree that even modern batteries are pretty absurd for any
         | human scale flight, though scaling laws make smaller aircraft
         | more reasonable.
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | Isn't synthetic fuel much more promising?
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | Yeah they are, and this fact is just overlooked by people
             | who aren't thinking through the implications of abundant
             | renewable energy. With a surplus of renewable energy it
             | makes much more sense to manufacture synthetic liquid fuels
             | and burn them, than it does to power airplanes with
             | batteries. The energy cycle is grossly inefficient but
             | nobody is going to care because the energy inputs will be
             | nearly cost-free.
        
               | zbrozek wrote:
               | CAISO hits about 100gCO2e/KWh during the day. And I run a
               | solar surplus that I don't put back on the grid.
               | 
               | I'd be really happy if there were a good way for me to
               | turn excess electricity into something I could use later.
               | Maybe that's hydrogen. Maybe that's capturing carbon and
               | putting it into liquid fuels. Maybe that's creating
               | graphite that I can use for fun personal projects.
               | 
               | But regardless, I don't expect grid electricity prices to
               | fall. Probably not in the US. Definitely not in CA.
        
               | frosted-flakes wrote:
               | I had that thought recently. Renewable energy sources
               | like wind need a lot of energy storage. That is, unless
               | you over-provision them so much that they can always meet
               | demand even at peak times. This leaves you with over-
               | production at other times, which could be used for other
               | purposes that don't need to run continuously: synthetic
               | jet fuel production, water desalination, etc.
               | 
               | Basically, overprovision and then set electricity rates
               | based on demand, and the renewable energy "storage
               | problem" might just sort itself out. Of course, all those
               | windmills and solar panels will cost an awful lot, so it
               | might not be as simple as "overprovisioning".
        
               | Sebb767 wrote:
               | > That is, unless you over-provision them so much that
               | they can always meet demand even at peak times.
               | 
               | Overprovisioning solar to power the grid on ice cold,
               | windless new moon night is going to be hard. Having
               | somewhere to put excess energy and some overprovisioning
               | is always good, but it won't solve all storage problems.
        
             | robonerd wrote:
             | From a CO2 perspective, synthetic fuels don't have an
             | intrinsic advantage, unless you use biomass as your source
             | of carbon. Traditionally, synthetic fuel has been made
             | using coal or natural gas as the source of carbon. There is
             | still some advantage to this, the nitrogen and sulfur
             | content of the fuel can be dramatically reduced, which is
             | great. But with regard to C02 specifically, you're
             | basically burning coal. With biofuels, I think care needs
             | to be taken to ensure we don't ruin the price of food for
             | people by incentivizing farmers to grow fuel feedstock
             | instead. Biofuels made from algae might be the best, since
             | this wouldn't require the use of arable farmland.
             | 
             | Another approach is to pull the CO2 straight out of sea
             | water. Apparently the US Navy thinks this might be a viable
             | approach, since their nuclear aircraft carriers have power
             | to spare.
        
               | ginko wrote:
               | I believe when people say synthetic fuel they mean carbon
               | neutral fuels that are made from renewable electricity.
               | 
               | The general idea is to use electrolysis to produce
               | hydrogen, then combine that with atmospheric CO2 to
               | produce methanol.
               | 
               | For instance: https://www.efuel-alliance.eu/efuels/what-
               | are-efuels
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | Atmospheric carbon capture seems like an petroleum
               | industry scam to me (check the 'Members' page of that
               | website.) In principle it's what plants do, but plants do
               | it using scale; there's a whole bunch of them. CO2 is
               | under 500ppm in our air, and air isn't particularly dense
               | in the first place; the amount of air you'd need to move
               | through your capture plant is immense.
               | 
               | On the Costs & Outlook page of this site, they list their
               | potential feedstocks; it's all biomass, except for the _'
               | Technical Potential "Unlimited"'_ column, which mentions
               | Power-to-Liquids. But how does that actually work and
               | does it actually make sense?
               | 
               | Related parody of carbon capture:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSZgoFyuHC8
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | It is possible, it's just expensive.
               | 
               | The U.S. navy is interested in a fuel synthesizer that
               | works on co2, seawater and uranium and they can pay more
               | than you per gallon because you don't have to refuel an
               | aircraft carrier in a war zone.
        
               | sky-kedge0749 wrote:
               | I recently commented about synthetic jet fuel in another
               | thread https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31704829:
               | 
               | > A problem with biofuel is scaling it up, see:
               | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7498153. According
               | to that article the U.S. would need to devote "an area
               | bigger than Texas and California and Pennsylvania
               | combined" to crops specifically for its own jet biofuel
               | needs. That's just for flying, not for food or fuel for
               | ground transportation or anything else.
               | 
               | Also that article says that from 2009-2013 a $100 million
               | effort was made to figure out how to get sufficient
               | synthetic fuel from algae but they eventually gave up and
               | went back to the drawing board.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Biofuel is an obvious dead end.
               | 
               | The future has no place for biofuel in any substantial
               | amount.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | _Obviously_ in the present context  "synthetic" refers to
               | fuel produced using renewable energy. If you are willing
               | to use petroleum, you don't need to synthesize anything
               | because that is where you started, unless maybe you are
               | turning NG into kerosene. But that would be a dead end
               | technology, so would not return investment.
               | 
               | Energetically, the principal synthetic fuels will be
               | anhydrous ammonia and hydrogen. Capturing CO2 to make
               | methane and kerosene is possible but more expensive. In
               | particular, you need hydrogen as input, and must both
               | capture and crack the CO2.
               | 
               | But for some uses you still need hydrocarbons, at least
               | for now. Given carbon taxes subsidizing synthetics, the
               | synthetics could be competitive.
               | 
               | In the longer term, aviation does much better with liquid
               | hydrogen fuel, but it takes new airframes or, at least,
               | extensive retrofits.
        
               | systemvoltage wrote:
               | Can we allow CO2 emissions if we can sequestrate it
               | somewhere else? Synthetic fuels sounds like a good idea.
               | 
               | It's capturing energy in point A and being used at point
               | B. You can't just look at point B and yell "CO2
               | emissions!".
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _if we can sequestrate it somewhere else?_
               | 
               | That seems to be the big _if_.
        
               | systemvoltage wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration
        
             | hannob wrote:
             | There's been an EU funded research project that did some
             | projections on the electricity needed for e-fuels. See the
             | graphic on page 44: https://www.fch.europa.eu/sites/default
             | /files/FCH%20Docs/202...
             | 
             | For pure e-fuels they project 32 PWh. That is, to put it in
             | perspective, more than the total world electricity
             | production today. You'll want to use every technology
             | available to do this in a more efficient way - batteries
             | for very short ranges, hydrogen for mid ranges, e-fuels
             | only for long range where nothing else works. It'll still
             | be very challenging and likely the current growth
             | projections of the aviation industry will be seen as
             | unrealistic fantasies at some point in the future.
        
               | lukeschlather wrote:
               | > For pure e-fuels they project 32 PWh. That is, to put
               | it in perspective, more than the total world electricity
               | production today.
               | 
               | Total annual electricity production is 161 PWh. THe PDF
               | you linked puts it in perspective by saying that if it
               | were purely powered by renewable energy it would increase
               | the size of the renewable energy sector by 3 to 5 times.
               | In other words this doesn't sound hard at all from an
               | electricity standpoint. If electrical generation were
               | half the cost it would be economical right now.
        
               | moby_click wrote:
               | From https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2020/
               | se/c9se0...
               | 
               | > We find that an electricity emissions factor of less
               | than 139 g CO2e per kW h is required for this [Direct Air
               | Capture system paired with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis]
               | pathway to provide a climate benefit over conventional
               | diesel fuel.
               | 
               | The grid averages in most regions are higher than that. I
               | don't think multiplying current renewable generation just
               | for jet fuel is easy.
        
             | bbojan wrote:
             | Burning any fuel in our atmosphere produces nitrous oxides.
             | Synthetic/carbon neutral fuels won't help with that.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | These can possibly be addressed by catalytic converters
               | in the exhaust (not sure how feasible that is in a
               | turbine engine though). In any event, it's a small
               | fraction of total greenhouse emissions, dwarfed by CO2.
               | Let's not let perfect be the enemy of good.
        
               | bbojan wrote:
               | Oh I wasn't concerned about their greenhouse effect
               | contribution. NOx can cause asthma and bronchitis and can
               | aggravate pre-existing heart conditions. They also form
               | smog.
               | 
               | Did I mention that they are bad for the ozone layer?
        
         | kkfx wrote:
         | This might give you some insights...
         | 
         | https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/uam-full-...
         | 
         | ...of the idea. Witch is essentially, advertisement aside, "the
         | wealthy who happen to live nearby cities, witch happen to be
         | open-sky prisons^w^w factories stuffed with services to achieve
         | the Chinese lockdown with workers who live in the factory, to
         | work, of course ehrm, to achieve the best work life balance
         | (better not say the best to who) can came and go from such erh
         | smart cities in full comfort with means that made things
         | closer, like if they live inside the city and goes with cars.
         | 
         | ...In the LONG term, that means we can benefit from the economy
         | of scale living "near" but far less dense than today so at that
         | point in time we have finally found a way to live sufficiently
         | flexible to withstand the technological, social and climate
         | change still being near enough to be social and have economy of
         | scale phenomenon.
         | 
         | Or: in the short term we need a good solution for those who can
         | pay, in the medium terms slaves ahem citizens have built a new
         | society and new generations will finally benefit from such
         | progress...
         | 
         | In theoretical terms: maintaining roads network is expensive,
         | far expensive if we also need to build new ones, like a
         | potential future arctic "anthropization" due to climate change,
         | so better made few railroads and waterways for heavy loads
         | transports and live humans in the air, far more flexible and
         | cheap. At a certain point in time if we are still alive as a
         | species we will reach that point. Then the "self-sufficiency
         | push" will be the key to reach that goal in an unspecified
         | future.
         | 
         | Ps if they loose power there is AFAIK only an emergency
         | parachute for the entire plane. Only it demand, I suppose, a
         | certain altitude to being able to be deployed...
        
         | newaccount2021 wrote:
        
         | ramesh31 wrote:
         | >This doesn't really mesh into the existing aviation industry,
         | so proponents of these small electric planes usually propose
         | creating new markets entirely; e.g. Uber for Helicopters. But
         | I'm pretty skeptical that laws will allow regular operation of
         | these in residential neighborhoods for long, if at all.
         | 
         | I can see it becoming more of "Greyhound for Helicopters".
         | Practically every town in the US greater than a few thousand
         | population has at least a local municipal airport. With
         | electrification, aviation can become so cheap that all of these
         | fields will just have a few commuter size electric aircraft
         | that feed into to the rest of our existing airport
         | infrastructure. And with the planes being so small, there's
         | really no need for TSA security or anything, it becomes as
         | simple as buying a ticket on your phone and hopping on the
         | plane like a bus.
        
           | repiret wrote:
           | > With electrification, aviation can become so cheap...
           | 
           | Fuel is not the dominant cost in general aviation.
           | Electrification alone won't make it cheap.
        
             | ramesh31 wrote:
             | >Fuel is not the dominant cost in general aviation.
             | Electrification alone won't make it cheap.
             | 
             | It's not about fuel efficiency. In fact, any electric
             | aircraft with current battery tech is always going to be
             | less efficient than a jet, because jets burn oxygen from
             | the air.
             | 
             | It's about maintenance. The fixed hourly cost of aviation
             | is almost entirely based on the cost of maintenance. And a
             | fleet of electric aircraft will be orders of magnitude
             | cheaper to maintain than turboprops and jets. That can
             | unlock whole new business models of small scale commercial
             | aviation that aren't possible today.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | When you say "orders of magnitude cheaper" you can't
               | possibly mean even 10x. There is more to aircraft
               | maintenance than just engine repairs and overhauls.
               | Electric aircraft will still require similar amounts of
               | maintenance on the airframe, control surfaces, avionics,
               | and interior. And some of the powered lift designs have
               | literally _dozens_ of separate motors and rotors, each of
               | which require periodic manual inspection.
        
           | 908B64B197 wrote:
           | > And with the planes being so small, there's really no need
           | for TSA security or anything
           | 
           | There's no need for larger planes either for zero-risk
           | travelers.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | akira2501 wrote:
           | Granted, this is a new type of transport.. but the current
           | metrics on air flight safety do not support this idea. Take
           | offs and landings are the most dangerous part of flight, and
           | still account for planes being more dangerous _per trip_ than
           | most other modes of transport.
           | 
           | Planning to create a plane that fills this space is planning
           | to create a plane that suffers a lot of accidents for almost
           | no real gain over current options.
           | 
           | Buses are incredibly safe. If you want better busses, build
           | those instead. This obsession with floating to your
           | destination above the ground does not seem wise or
           | worthwhile.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | It's trivial to create a luxury "bus" in just about any
             | form factor you want to from a full-size motor coach down
             | to a limo. Presumably the economics don't work in most
             | cases. Of course, if you're talking small municipal
             | airports in the US, the vast majority of people living
             | there, especially those who can afford somewhat upscale
             | transportation, probably own a car.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | Yes. Most small towns don't even have bus service to the
               | nearest hub airport, because economically it doesn't
               | work. And there is no arrangement of costs that will work
               | out to electric aircraft being cheaper to own and operate
               | than a bus.
        
               | freemint wrote:
               | In a sufficiently river/sea/ /hill/valley rich
               | environment it might work if one can save on
               | infrastructure cost for extra expensive roads. This is
               | not most of the world though.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Electrification alone won't make air charters cheap. The
           | aircraft themselves, pilot salaries, maintenance, and
           | facilities will all still be nearly as expensive. We are
           | decades away from the FAA allowing autonomous or remote
           | piloted aircraft to carry paying customers in commercial
           | service.
        
         | theptip wrote:
         | This was posted on HN a while ago; of course the numbers are
         | aspirational but this explains their business model:
         | 
         | https://lilium.com/newsroom-detail/why-regional-air-mobility
         | 
         | > If we imagine for a moment that you work in an office in Palo
         | Alto, you could now choose to live in Hayward (5 min flight,
         | $25), downtown San Francisco (10 min flight, $50), or even San
         | Rafael (15 min flight, $70).
         | 
         | > Or maybe you want to escape to Lake Tahoe for a long weekend?
         | That would be less than an hour on a Lilium Jet, at a cost of
         | around $250 at launch and less in the near future. It might not
         | be something you'd do every weekend, but saving you three hours
         | each way might well make it worthwhile for an occasional trip.
         | 
         | Obviously at first this will be a luxury good, but it's not
         | obvious that it'll remain out of reach for the middle class.
         | (Sure, it'll never be cheaper than a bus.)
         | 
         | It's a fair question exactly how much regulatory change this
         | approach requires, but my impression is that they are trying to
         | operate within existing constraints (I'd appreciate any insight
         | from experts in the aviation space though).
        
           | bufferoverflow wrote:
           | You would have to be making a lot of money to justify 2 such
           | flights per day.
           | 
           | 25 * 2 * 22 = $1100/mo = $13.2K / year.
        
             | bpodgursky wrote:
             | Bay bridge toll + gas + parking + amortized car ownership +
             | insurance is pretty plausibly less than that already.
        
               | Sebb767 wrote:
               | You will have less mobility than with a car, though,so it
               | won't replace all of it. But I agree with your main
               | point, the actual premium will be much lower and probably
               | worth it, considering the time saved.
        
             | mbreese wrote:
             | But if you can live in a cheaper place than Palo Alto,
             | you'll make back that $15K per year in lower house
             | payments. And if you only have a comfortable commute of
             | 15-20 min each way as opposed to an hour (or more), your
             | standard of living will be much nicer too.
        
             | trompetenaccoun wrote:
             | There's likely a reason they picked Switzerland, Munich,
             | New York and California as examples ;)
             | 
             | I'm interested in how those prices break down. Without any
             | more details, it's hard to know if they're realistic at
             | all.
        
           | sydd wrote:
           | The main issue is not cost, but safety and the disturbance of
           | others.
           | 
           | Safety: If you crash in a car, its very likely that you
           | survive. With these a crash is very likely deadly. To reach
           | safety levels like commercial airplanes costs will need to
           | rise tremendously. A commercial jet needs maintenance and
           | checks after each flight by trained personnel, high quality
           | parts that can be tracked from the refinery,...
           | 
           | Privacy: You dont want these flying over your house 7/24.
           | They fly much lower than commercial planes, with a mediocre
           | camera you could spy on anyone.
           | 
           | Crime: What if you divert one? Will there be security
           | checkpoints at the entrance?
           | 
           | Weather: I'm no aviation expert, but these look... flimsy.
           | Are they able to run on cold weather? (batteries last much
           | less in cold) Are they able to run in storms? Likely not,
           | even commercial planes avoid them. Then I guess they suspend
           | the service during storms, since with their "local" distances
           | as big as the circumference of a storm cloud?
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | Safety and weather are covered by certification
             | requirements. Those will be somewhere between small
             | aircraft and helicopters with some eVTOL specifics. If it
             | gets certified those bases are covered.
             | 
             | Privacy: Regulated airspace is your friend, plis why wait
             | for one those if you can have your own drone for the price
             | of one Lilium ticket.
             | 
             | Crime: Regulations also cover airport operations, so that
             | base will be covered as well.
             | 
             | For me the question is not _if_ those aircraft are goong to
             | fly (they will if it os technically possible and people
             | fund development), but rather whether there is an actual
             | market for those big enough to make the manufactirers and
             | operators viable businesses. The last qiestion is hard
             | (IMHO impossible) to answer without getting them to market
             | first.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | There are certification requirements for both the
               | aircraft and Ops Spec approvals for Part 135 (on-demand
               | charter) operations. I can see that these would be
               | certified to fly (and thus eligible for Part 91 (private)
               | operations) far more easily than the more stringent
               | requirements for Part 135 charter operations.
               | 
               | The FAA thinking is that you have greater understanding
               | as a passenger on a Part 91 operation and are better able
               | to judge the risk yourself, whereas a Part 135 (charter)
               | or Part 121 (scheduled airline) operation, the public
               | cannot effectively judge the safety of the operation so
               | the FAA holds them to a higher standard.
               | 
               | Single engine Part 135 is possible, but there's a large
               | amount of focus on redundancy:
               | https://www.aviationconsumer.com/industry-news/single-
               | engine...
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | These seem to compete more in the helicopter realm than the
             | airliner realm. That's likely to be true of the relative
             | level of safety of this vs a helo vs an airliner. (I've
             | sometimes quipped that helicopters are one of the primary
             | predators of billionaires.)
             | 
             | While the stated/projected costs (which I doubt will be
             | achievable), these would compete very favorably against a
             | helicopter on a cost basis. Without the ability to auto-
             | rotate (or a functional equivalent level of safety system),
             | there's no way I'm getting in one nor recommending my
             | family get in one [and I'm perfectly happy flying single
             | engine piston aircraft at night].
        
             | lambda wrote:
             | I work for one of these startups, Beta.
             | 
             | We are focusing on a slightly different market than the
             | other entrants; we're focusing initially on cargo rather
             | than passenger transit. One initial customer is United
             | Therapeutics, for transporting organ transplants and
             | artificial organs to hospitals. Another is UPS, for getting
             | air freight from airports to distribution centers; cutting
             | out the truck trip can save a ton of time there. We are
             | also making a passenger variant, but since the regulatory
             | and NIMBY concerns for the passenger air taxi market
             | present a lot of risk, we're not betting solely on that
             | market like a lot of the other companies are.
             | 
             | This helps with a lot of the concerns raised in this
             | thread. In fact, another one that I'm not sure has been
             | brought up is vertiport design and siting concerns; right
             | now standards on vertiports are still a work in progress,
             | and there are questions about whether it will be feasible
             | to get them installed, because even with vertical takeoff
             | and landing you generally need to keep approach angles of
             | about 15deg clear, which means once a vertiport is
             | installed you need to limit the heights of any surrounding
             | buildings to keep the approach clear.
             | 
             | To address a few of your other concerns: we're located in
             | northern Vermont, we know cold weather. Actually, for our
             | use case hot weather tends to be more of a concern;
             | batteries and motors heat up when used, especially in the
             | very high power vertical lift phase, so our limitations
             | there tend to be thermal and cold air provides better
             | cooling.
             | 
             | Our charging stations also include air for cooling and
             | warming the batteries; so you should be able to avoid the
             | issues with batteries being cold on startup with our air
             | system.
             | 
             | All aircraft have limitations on weather that they can be
             | flown in; crosswind limits for takeoff and landing, etc. As
             | very lightweight aircraft, with high lift/drag, these will
             | be somewhat lower than the limits for your big jumbo jets,
             | but will be high enough to be useful in a lot of weather.
             | All aircraft have requirements for design and testing for
             | HIRF (high intensity radiated field/lightning), so these
             | will all be certified to the same standard there. Aircraft
             | can optionally be certified for flight into known icing
             | conditions (FIKI); I believe our plan is to have the
             | capability, but as an optional add on, as it requires a
             | number of heating elements which add weight and complexity.
             | But overall, the weather concerns shouldn't be too much
             | different than for other small aircraft.
             | 
             | As far as safety goes, that's obviously a concern in any
             | aircraft. One advantage of electric aircraft is that
             | electric propulsion systems are far mechanically simpler,
             | with far fewer moving and wearing parts. The only real wear
             | item of concern are the main bearings on the motors, and
             | the landing gear. So maintenance intervals can be much
             | longer than with ICE aircraft, and I expect reliability to
             | be considerably higher. Additionally, electric motors can
             | be much smaller and lighter, and thus can be made
             | redundant. Each propeller on our aircraft will be driven by
             | multiple independent motors (probably can't say the exact
             | configuration at the moment), so that motor failures can be
             | tolerated without catastrophic consequences.
        
         | mike_hock wrote:
         | I mean, why should regulations me more lenient on sci-fi
         | chopper/plane crossovers than on regular choppers?
        
         | dkasper wrote:
         | Zero chance of helicopters in cities after 9/11. You can't fly
         | helicopters over SF or Manhattan anymore except for medical
         | purposes.
        
           | mlyle wrote:
           | Helicopters aren't banned over Manhattan, etc, despite
           | repeated efforts to do so.
           | 
           | In the late 1970's, all the building-top helipads stopped
           | operation after repeated accidents.
           | 
           | Still, there's the helipads along the river and a VFR
           | corridor in and out of Manhattan. In 2009, the altitude rules
           | for the corridor got a lot stricter because of repeated fatal
           | accidents.
        
             | merely-unlikely wrote:
             | I was under the impression you can only fly over the
             | rivers. Is that not true?
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | There's a VFR corridor over the rivers where you don't
               | have to talk to air traffic control. Otherwise, you're
               | going to need to talk to LaGuardia.
               | 
               | If you're a tour operator and want to use a city
               | heliport, you need to sign a very restrictive agreement
               | about operations, too-- which allows only limited
               | overland stuff (e.g. flying over Yankee's Stadium/the
               | Bronx). Mostly because people were sick of tourist
               | helicopters constantly hovering over Central Park.
               | 
               | https://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/rules-
               | tightene...
               | 
               | None of this has anything directly to do with 9/11.
               | Crashes of tourist helicopters and noise concerns has
               | caused the city to clamp down on use of helipads. Crashes
               | of air taxi operations in the 1970s caused the removal of
               | the vast majority of helipads.
        
           | rklaehn wrote:
           | There are also big cities outside America. Plenty of
           | helicopters in Sao Paulo...
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiybWbyfQIY
        
           | lastofthemojito wrote:
           | How is Blade flying people between Manhattan and the
           | Hamptons?
           | 
           | https://www.blade.com
        
             | merely-unlikely wrote:
             | The helipads are all on the rivers not inside Manhattan
        
           | ur-whale wrote:
           | Zero chance _in the US_ which - increasingly - is not the
           | center of the world.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _can't fly helicopters over SF or Manhattan_
           | 
           | Both cities have plenty of potential even with overland
           | banned. New York has a thriving helicopter business between
           | boroughs, up and down both sides of Long Island and to and
           | from the airports. The Bay Area isn't similarly knitted
           | together, but there is no good argument for not having an
           | electric hop from _e.g._ Mountain View to SFO.
        
             | woodruffw wrote:
             | Worth noting that the "thriving" helicopter business is
             | uniformly disliked by residents, due to noise pollution[1].
             | 
             | [1]: https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-
             | elections...
        
             | CoastalCoder wrote:
             | Can someone comment on why the parent would be (as of this
             | writing) downvoted?
             | 
             | I'm wondering if there's some context I'm missing.
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | Best guess? Because the helicopter restrictions have
               | nothing to do with 9/11.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | The low energy density of batteries favors _large_ planes and
         | short distances.
         | 
         | The only reason you are seeing them in small planes is that
         | electric propulsion makes VTOL viable, and VTOL favors small
         | planes. There is just this niche in aviation that can't be
         | filled at all by fossil fuel engines, so it's the first to
         | adopt electric ones.
         | 
         | And yes, regulations will be the most important factor for
         | those. I imagine it all depends on how silent those planes can
         | be. But I doubt safety will be the limiting factor.
        
           | Deritio wrote:
           | Whenever I hear air taxi, I think about water bottles and
           | airport security.
           | 
           | I don't want some rich dude flying over my house just because
           | he/she can afford to take a airtaxi from the airport to city
           | center while everyone else uses car or train.
           | 
           | For other use cases they can do what they want. Australian
           | outback perhaps.
           | 
           | But airspace pollution and a potential small airplane
           | crashing down in a city? No way.
        
             | inglor_cz wrote:
             | Air taxis are really useful in places divided by natural
             | obstacles.
             | 
             | Hop over a fjord, hop over a mountain range. Much cheaper
             | and eco-friendly than building bridges and tunnels
             | everywhere, especially if the population density isn't
             | high.
        
               | idlehand wrote:
               | These kinds of places are also generally suitable for
               | hydropower and geothermal energy which gives considerable
               | amounts of cheap electricity.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | p1mrx wrote:
             | > a potential small airplane crashing down in a city? No
             | way.
             | 
             | Drones ought to have megaphones that scream DRONE CRASH
             | IMMINENT before impact.
        
             | jstummbillig wrote:
             | > No way.
             | 
             | Wait until you see the motor carriages they claim are going
             | to replace horses one day.
        
               | tpxl wrote:
               | When a motor carriage loses power, it stops. When a
               | helicopter loses power, it kills people.
        
               | underdeserver wrote:
               | When a helicopter loses power it glides, safely, to the
               | ground - assuming it's being flown by a qualified pilot.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autorotation
        
               | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
               | That is a fantasy that almost never works out in real
               | life. Autorotation is only feasible with enough forward
               | air speed and control authority. Most helicopter crashes
               | happen outside that narrow zone of survivability. Even if
               | an autorotation is semi-pulled off it's likely to be a
               | hard landing that causes significant injuries.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Autorotations are regularly trained (and often taken all
               | the way to touchdown during training). The checkride for
               | private and commercial rotorcraft has a power failure at
               | hover taken all the way to touchdown as part of the
               | standard.
               | 
               | Autorotations are by no means a "gimme", but if every
               | autorotation "likely" caused significant injuries, there
               | wouldn't be enough helicopters or pilots to go around (no
               | pun intended).
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _That is a fantasy that almost never works out in real
               | life._
               | 
               | Can you quantify this?
               | 
               | > _Most helicopter crashes happen outside that narrow
               | zone of survivability._
               | 
               | AFAIK the majority of helicopter crashes are not caused
               | by a loss of engine power, but autorotation is relevant
               | specifically in that context. It's not relevant to
               | helicopters crashing into hills during storms, or hitting
               | wires with the rotor, or anything like that. We're
               | discussing what happens if the engine stops, not all
               | accident scenarios.
               | 
               | > _Even if an autorotation is semi-pulled off it 's
               | likely to be a hard landing that causes significant
               | injuries._
               | 
               | Yes, but it's better than being dead.
        
               | jackpeterfletch wrote:
               | I guess the question is - can we maintain the standard
               | that is 'qualified pilot' as it is today while making it
               | accessible enough for this to scale.
               | 
               | Learning to drive and learning to fly isn't the same bar
               | today.
               | 
               | And if Lilium think Palo Alto to San Francisco could be
               | $50, they're gonna need _alot_ of flights to balance
               | their costs.
        
               | jstummbillig wrote:
               | I think it's safe to assume this class of vehicles (and
               | likely any new class of vehicles from here on out) is not
               | designed to be piloted by a human past its prototype
               | stage.
        
               | gnulinux wrote:
               | You can recognize that cars are going nowhere and it's
               | best if we embrace this fact in our own ways (either by
               | being a car owner, or working around car-designed cities
               | the way we prefer), but still note that our cities could
               | have been designed better from scratch that doesn't favor
               | cars. Similarly, avoiding the same mistake now for
               | helicopters wouldn't be inconsistent with living with
               | cars.
        
               | jstummbillig wrote:
               | That seems reasonable, but what is missing (at least in
               | this branch of the debate) is data and counter arguments
               | that will not clearly peter out while the technology
               | matures, if they are even trying to be factual to begin
               | with.
               | 
               | As an example, just on the topic of safety: Why would we
               | assume these machines are relatively dangerous once they
               | reach production? Just because they fly? I know of at
               | least one category of vehicles where on that basis our
               | intuition fails us to this day.
               | 
               | And what happens when they do fail? They are not going to
               | explode randomly or purposefully target the closest
               | building. So what are the chances of all fail-safes
               | failing, and catastrophic outcomes occurring?
               | 
               | Why would we assume whatever this technology eventually
               | enables will be operated by human pilots? I for one would
               | be fairly surprised if that was to happen at any
               | noteworthy scale. Clearly, the interesting part about
               | this prototype is electric flight, not its HID, agreed?
               | 
               | So let's build cool things (electric flight is
               | potentially a cool thing) and then gather actual data
               | about other things it brings (some maybe not so cool),
               | before we "no way" it without any facts on the basis of
               | weak conjecture and personal feelings.
        
               | trompetenaccoun wrote:
               | The difference is we don't live in the sky. As long as
               | there isn't noise pollution (and electric planes are
               | supposedly a lot quieter), you have to try really hard to
               | create and issue here. Aviation is getting ever more
               | automated and safer.
        
               | thescriptkiddie wrote:
               | The motor carriage and its consequences have been a
               | disaster for the human race.
        
             | nostromo wrote:
             | They do this already. They're called helicopters.
        
               | staunch wrote:
               | > _They do this already. They 're called helicopters._
               | 
               | This is dangerously close to the infamous HN Dropbox
               | critique[1] :-D
               | 
               | And it's likely wrong in the same way.
               | 
               | 1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9224
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
               | Well, _electric_ helicopters or electric helicopter-
               | equivalent-vehicles would be a step forwards, correct?
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | On the one hand, yes.
               | 
               | On the other hand, making it cheap enough that mono-
               | millionaires can do it regularly is going to make a big
               | difference compared to the status quo.
        
               | wildmanx wrote:
               | > mono-millionaires
               | 
               | Ah right, moving it from 0.1%-ers to 1%-ers is really
               | going to make a big difference.
        
               | jxf wrote:
               | Roughly 10% of Americans are millionaires, for reference
               | (though I doubt all of that is liquid).
        
               | edg-l wrote:
               | this comment reminded me of this
               | http://www.temporarilyembarrassedmillionaires.org/
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | Sources online show that about 8% of Americans are
               | millionaires, with a significant bump during COVID
               | (probably because of the stock market.) About 10% of
               | households are.
               | 
               | It's hard to find precise qualifications for how they
               | determine that, though. The households figure doesn't
               | include primary residence value (why?), and the
               | individual statistics don't mention liquidity. I suspect
               | that only a small percent of that 8% actually has $1+
               | million liquid.
        
               | idlehand wrote:
               | Definitely not liquid cash, but assuming that a not
               | insignificant portion of those people are retirees or
               | planning to retire soonish (which is when net worth
               | peaks), I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage of
               | decently liquid assets like stocks and bonds are higher
               | than you might think.
        
               | brrrrrm wrote:
               | About 10x, right?
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | I don't know. The idea that a bunch of people with a
               | couple of millions of dollars in wealth can now zip
               | around above my house (and further alienate themselves
               | from civic reality, even more so than cars do) seems like
               | a pretty bad outcome.
        
               | ghastmaster wrote:
               | That is essentially how progress begins in every
               | industry. Wealthy people pay for new tech with their vast
               | fortunes, and many times, their lives. Once they work out
               | the kinks and economies of scale take over, the less
               | wealthy to enjoy the same tech at higher levels of safety
               | and lower prices.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | Helicopters are expensive to rent. If Lilium achieves
               | even 10x the cost they've suggested they can reach in the
               | past, they'll be attractive to a customer base who'd
               | never be able to afford regular helicopter rides.
        
             | prvit wrote:
             | > airspace pollution
             | 
             | Bit of a fake concern, no?
             | 
             | >potential small airplane crashing down in a city
             | 
             | Is that really much worse than a SUV driving into a
             | building?
        
               | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
               | > Is that really much worse than a SUV driving into a
               | building?
               | 
               | Yes
        
               | SapporoChris wrote:
               | Think of it this way. If an SUV drives into your building
               | you can sue and make some money. But if some really rich
               | person crashes their flying gizmo into your building you
               | can sue and make a lot of money!
        
               | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
               | So, are you saying that you think that the worst that
               | happens in car crashes is "someone could sue"?
               | 
               | please don't waste our time.
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | I can't sue if I've been incinerated by an uncontrolled
               | lithium battery fire.
        
               | voldacar wrote:
               | Neither could you sue if you had been struck and killed
               | by an SUV. The end state of your reasoning is that nobody
               | can ever do anything that involves risk because someone
               | might die and be unable to sue. Sounds like an awful
               | world
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | Emphasis on "killed." I don't want to be struck by an
               | SUV, but one hitting my apartment at ordinary NYC
               | residential street speeds (at least, pre-COVID) is less
               | likely to kill me than a plane crash.
               | 
               | Risk is a community exercise. You don't (or rather,
               | shouldn't) get to externalize _disproportionate_ risks
               | upon the commons because it makes your life easier.
               | 
               | (An example of such a consideration: what happens when
               | the fire department shows up? They know how to deal with
               | a car accident; are they going to have the presence of
               | mind not to douse a vehicle that looks like a normal
               | personal aircraft in water?)
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | hef19898 wrote:
               | With more and more SUVs and truck beimg EVs that doesn't
               | change much. Well, eVTOLs will burn longer, not that it
               | matters because a large SUV will burn long enough to not
               | matter to _you_.
               | 
               | And I'd bet a lot more on the crash safety of aerospace
               | cerrified batteries than those of the automotive sector.
        
           | closedloop129 wrote:
           | In that niche, why are batteries needed? Couldn't those
           | planes be constructed with gas turbines that generate the
           | necessary electricity?
        
             | t0mas88 wrote:
             | VTOL works fine with turbines, nearly all large helicopters
             | use turbine engines. They don't use the turbines as
             | generators but instead connect both engines to the rotor
             | via a gearbox.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | It's a matter of the weight/power relation. While batteries
             | suck on weight/energy, their weight/power is great.
             | 
             | The lower that relation, the smaller you can make your VTOL
             | vehicles, and the smaller the vehicles, the cheapest and
             | more economical they are on total.
        
           | dr_dshiv wrote:
           | > I imagine it all depends on how silent those planes can be.
           | 
           | I agree. I'd say, though, not just how silent, but how
           | pleasant sounding. Aesthetics of sound could make or break
           | this industry.
        
             | inb4_cancelled wrote:
             | You either get a chop-chop-chop, or a bzzzt, both
             | incredibly loud. It's not the engine that makes the noise,
             | it's mostly the propeller/rotor. The only advantage of
             | electric VTOLs is easier manufacturing and better control.
        
               | detritus wrote:
               | Props need feathers.
        
               | dr_dshiv wrote:
               | > You either get a chop-chop-chop, or a bzzzt
               | 
               | Well, for instance, if they could line up the harmonics
               | to create a missing fundamental (eg with the addition of
               | external sounds), they could make propellers present an
               | artificially lower pitch.
        
               | Judgmentality wrote:
               | Your solution to them being too loud and annoying is to
               | make them louder and hopefully less annoying?
        
               | dr_dshiv wrote:
               | Yes. It's possible that louder but less annoying is more
               | viable, wouldn't you say?
        
               | vkou wrote:
               | I would say the most viable solution is to not subject
               | hundreds of thousands of people to an incredible amount
               | of noise pollution, so that a couple of playboys get to
               | skip a taxi ride to the airport.
               | 
               | Private-transport helicopters or equivalents have no
               | place in cities. The gain is in no way worth the cost.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | There is plenty of space to change the number of
               | propellers, total area, and rotational velocity and
               | change the sound profile of the plane.
               | 
               | There is also a lot of space on how you maneuver it on
               | the landing and take-out, so you make less sound when it
               | matters the most.
               | 
               | There is the entire thing about minimizing weight too,
               | that also reduces sound, but it's also not clear how much
               | can be done.
               | 
               | Overall, it's not clear at all how much noise the eVTOL
               | planes will make.
        
           | aliswe wrote:
           | do you have any references to back these statements up? I am
           | not an expert but I did read in a hacker News comment that
           | the energy density of gasoline is about 14 (reading that
           | article, its 50) times higher than a "normal" battery.
           | 
           | if that is true (I do not think that he left references
           | either) then I would think that your statements seem less
           | plausible.
           | 
           | a replier who later deleted their comment left a reference
           | saying the energy density is 50 to 1, comparing lithium-ion
           | battery to diesel:
           | https://www.batterypowertips.com/comparing-ev-battery-and-
           | fu...
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
             | Combustion aircraft also benefit from the weight reduction
             | as fuel is consumed.
        
           | swarnie wrote:
           | Did the Harrier just get skipped by the rest of the world?
           | 
           | fossil fuel VTOL was cracked in the late 60s.
        
             | alluro2 wrote:
             | When talking about practical small plane with relatively
             | acceptable noise levels and fuel efficiency, I don't think
             | Harrier counts as it "being cracked". 125dB at 100 feet
             | from the plane, very limited time it can spend on vertical
             | takeoff while loaded, limited situations
             | (fuel/weight/thrust ratio) in which it can hover at
             | all...If it was cracked, the newer iteration of the "same
             | thing" - F-35B - wouldn't be so complex and take so many
             | billions to develop...
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | And the Harrier only barely worked at all. For most
               | operational missions, they couldn't really make true
               | vertical take-offs and landings. Instead they usually had
               | to make short ground rolls to get some lift from the
               | wings, or have a carrier ship sail into the wind. And the
               | mishap rate was appalling.
        
         | andrepd wrote:
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aH4b3sAs-l8
        
         | cesarb wrote:
         | > The power density of even speculative near-future batteries
         | favors small airplanes and short flights. This doesn't really
         | mesh into the existing aviation industry,
         | 
         | How short are these short flights? The hugely popular Ponte
         | Aerea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponte_A%C3%A9rea) has a
         | flight duration of one hour.
        
           | robonerd wrote:
           | That flight is about 230 miles (365 km) as the crow flies,
           | and they're doing it with 737s that seat 100+ each and fly
           | dozens of these flights a day.
           | 
           | Compare that to this battery plane that can fly 200 miles:
           | https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/29/rolls-royce-claims-
           | its-...
           | 
           | These aren't in the same ballpark; they aren't even playing
           | the same game. If you want something to replace that plane
           | route, I suggest buying a lot of buses.
        
         | scythe wrote:
         | >[The electric airplane] doesn't really mesh into the existing
         | aviation industry
         | 
         | The reason small electric planes haven't taken off [1] is that
         | they simply haven't proven their cost advantage. About one-
         | sixth of the cost of a flight is fuel, which can be difficult
         | to tax because of jurisdiction shopping. A third is labor,
         | including taking care of the plane. Seven percent goes to
         | building the plane. From:
         | 
         | https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/airfare-d...
         | 
         | Optimistically, electric planes could be cheaper to fuel, build
         | _and_ maintain. That 's enough to upset an entrenched industry.
         | But it's not clear how it should be organized, and the
         | infrastructure mostly doesn't exist. Plus, the scale you expect
         | to operate at depends on battery technology, which has been a
         | little up in the air [2], and you don't want to design your
         | operations around 1000-mile ranges if it's going to be 2000 in
         | ten years.
         | 
         | 1: Sorry.
         | 
         | 2: Sorry. But see:
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/s42004-022-00626-2
        
           | ur-whale wrote:
           | There's other aspect than the pure economic aspect:
           | 
           | Noise
           | 
           | VTOL
           | 
           | When both are combined, this makes Urban flight closer to
           | feasable.
        
         | dzhiurgis wrote:
         | Dropbox vs rsync moment right here
        
         | bozhark wrote:
         | Air taxi is their market
        
         | momenti wrote:
         | Lilium's plane has 30 engines, multiple independent battery
         | packs, and electric motors are way more reliable than jet
         | engines (due to being so much simpler). A Lilium plane may have
         | a 1000x higher chance of a crash in case of full engine
         | failure, but perhaps that can be compensated for by 1000x times
         | simpler/redundant propulsion technology. This seems to be very
         | hard to assess in theory, so we probably just have to wait and
         | see how it performs in practice.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | At some point at least their design also included a whole
           | plane parachute. I don't know if that's still the case.
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | 30 engines = 30x the chance that at least one will fail.
           | Maybe one is tolerable. How many can it lose and still fly?
        
           | leoedin wrote:
           | That's all very well, as long as there's no common modes of
           | failure. Redundancy can be a means to achieve reliability,
           | but not always. Imagine the cause of failure is a bug which
           | kicks in at a specific time of day, or an integer overflow
           | which happens after a certain amount of uptime, or all the
           | motor drivers are susceptible to a specific RF frequency. It
           | doesn't matter how many motors you have if they're all
           | susceptible to the same failure mode.
        
             | mbreese wrote:
             | _> integer overflow which happens after a certain amount of
             | uptime_
             | 
             | It's not just electric powered planes that have to worry
             | about such things... this was an issue for the Boeing 777
             | Dreamliner too. If it was powered on for longer than 248
             | days, it could lose all electrical power due to an overflow
             | in the generator.
             | 
             | https://www.engadget.com/2015-05-01-boeing-787-dreamliner-
             | so...
             | 
             | I'm not saying it isn't a concern, but rather it is a
             | concern for all planes (and vehicles for that matter). Many
             | commercial passenger planes are now fly by wire. If you
             | lose electrical power, you'll also lose control. So, while
             | we're talking about purely electric planes, the problems
             | are universal.
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | That's what certification is there for, isn't it?
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | I can't possibly comment on any specific design, but what I'd
         | _like_ is something that can replace road ambulances.
         | 
         | This is partly because I live right next to a busy crossroads
         | and often get multiple _simultaneous_ sirens; but I do also
         | wonder how faster they can arrive by going as the crow flies
         | rather than following street layouts, and how much they have to
         | slow down both for traffic and for blind corners.
        
           | dzhiurgis wrote:
           | I keep thinking remotely controlled cargo operations,
           | especially around bad terrain and difficult water features.
           | Great for proving design and catching bugs for initial years.
        
           | jlmorton wrote:
           | This is one of the primary reasons I've bought into the eVTOL
           | revolution. I'm also skeptical about these filling city
           | skies, due to safety, noise pollution, etc. But the market
           | for emergency and special purpose vehicles alone is enormous.
           | 
           | The US market size for existing _air_ ambulances is itself
           | $4.5 billion dollars annually. The market size for standard
           | ambulances is nearly 10x that.
           | 
           | When you expand this to the rest of the world, you can easily
           | see a 100+ billion market for these sorts of vehicles,
           | whether in ambulance services, firefighting, agricultural, or
           | any number of other activities.
           | 
           | It's still possible we develop near-to-city eVTOL airport
           | systems for short distance travel. But even absent that, I
           | still think there's a big market opportunity.
        
           | SoftTalker wrote:
           | For critical patients helicopters are already used. For
           | patients who need to get to a hospital but are short-term in
           | stable condition, is the extra expense of an air ambulance
           | justified, in a health care system that is already
           | unaffordable?
        
         | clouddrover wrote:
         | > _The power density of even speculative near-future batteries
         | favors small airplanes and short flights._
         | 
         | Use a hydrogen fuel cell instead:
         | 
         | https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210401-the-worlds-first...
         | 
         | https://www.aircargoweek.com/zeroavia-and-monte-strike-deal-...
         | 
         | https://www.flyingmag.com/joby-secretly-bought-a-hydrogen-el...
         | 
         | https://interestingengineering.com/german-firm-record-altitu...
        
       | mLuby wrote:
       | I love that tell-tales are still part of vessels thousands of
       | years later.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | rklaehn wrote:
       | This is a major milestone for them. Very nice to see the
       | indicators suddenly transitioning to laminar flow.
       | 
       | It is a shame that they only stayed in this flight regime for a
       | few seconds, but they will now gradually expand the envelope.
       | 
       | Here is a good article explaining the tradeoffs they make vs.
       | more traditional VTOL craft with larger propellers:
       | https://ir.lilium.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tec... .
       | TLDR: they accept more inefficient performance during hover
       | because they won't stay in this flight regime for long.
        
       | beefman wrote:
       | Transportation economics are dominated by the passengers per
       | pilot ratio. Small vehicles aren't economic unless they are
       | piloted by a passenger or an AI.
       | 
       | AI piloting should be easier with aircraft than cars.
        
         | drexlspivey wrote:
         | Fuel costs are in the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars
         | per flight. Surely that's much more expensive than the pilot
         | costs?
        
           | redleader55 wrote:
           | According to [1] fuel costs are in the tens of thousands for
           | intercontinental flights. Pilot training is around 200k USD
           | [2] and thousands of hours to be accepted to fly reputable
           | companies' planes. I wouldn't call pilot costs negligible.
           | 
           | [1] -
           | https://www.google.com/amp/s/simpleflying.com/commercial-
           | air...
           | 
           | [2] - https://fly-ga.co.uk/how-much-cost-become-pilot-learn-
           | fly/
        
             | hef19898 wrote:
             | We are living in a world were co-pilots sometimes pay to be
             | allow?d to fly in order to get flight hours in towards type
             | ratings and promotions. Initial pilot trainig through
             | airlines, and paid by those with almost guaranteed
             | employment afterwards, is a thing of the past. Most pilots
             | pay for their own training now. Ehich leaves salaries,
             | which are indeed negligable.
             | 
             | Even if you accoubt for training costs, those are
             | negiligable whem compared to fuel, maintenance,...
        
           | beefman wrote:
           | For commercial jetliners? Yes, but they have a very high
           | passenger:pilot ratio already.
           | 
           | Also, the order is tens of thousands (for a typical
           | transatlantic flight).
           | 
           | Across transportation modalities, fuel costs are usually a
           | minor contributor to total cost. For a commercial airline
           | flight, about 10% of ticket price.
           | 
           | See also, this comment of mine on a recent story about the
           | Joby eVTOL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29705650
        
       | a-dub wrote:
       | i don't know what the proper term is, so i'm just going to make
       | bjork happy and call them aerodynamic scientifical tassles.
       | 
       | are they just recorded visually by a camera and then inspected
       | manually for a test flight or are they part of some kind of
       | active sensor system.
       | 
       | cool stuff.
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | Tufts and they are recorded on video.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | cousin_it wrote:
       | I think the ideal personal aircraft would work like a quadcopter
       | during takeoff and landing, but unfold wings for cruising flight
       | with much better efficiency. It seems there's already such a
       | drone called Transwing, I hope they make a personal aircraft like
       | that.
        
       | cvccvroomvroom wrote:
       | Not really a plane so much as a expense, semi-hovering, large
       | drone, inefficient consumer of electricity.
       | 
       | An efficient vehicle would have significant aerodynamic
       | properties like a glider. Instead, it's mostly pushing itself up
       | rather than using an airfoil.
       | 
       | Also, in terms of climate change, widespread use of anything
       | similar would be devastating for the environment as it's an
       | inherently extremely uneconomical mode of transportation.
       | 
       | If we wanted better transportation for less energy, it look like
       | a train.
        
       | staunch wrote:
       | Pretty exciting. I consider this a real proof of concept for
       | shuttlepods AKA flying cars. I'm sure there's a lot of work left
       | to do this shows how much is already possible with _relatively_
       | little effort by a _relatively_ small company.
       | 
       | Seems like there's a few advances that should enable it to
       | finally happen:
       | 
       | Automated: so there's no pilot to make mistakes and drive up
       | costs. Automated flying is easier than navigating streets, so
       | this is probably already doable at scale even though self-driving
       | cars are taking longer than hoped.
       | 
       | Electric: so the at-scale/long-term cost per flight can be nearly
       | zero. Seems possible something like this could be manufactured
       | for $100k at scale and fly (with maintenance) for multiple years.
       | 
       | Multi-rotor w/efficient DC motors, multi-battery pack w/advanced
       | batteries, and multi-computer w/advanced processors: so there's
       | no single point of failure and lots of opportunity to recover
       | from failure, and to enable easy VTOL without runways.
       | 
       | The Wright brothers would love it. Their initial vision was to
       | not need specially built runways or airports. It turns out that
       | was "too early" of an idea to be practical but we're getting
       | close.
       | 
       | An "infinite highway of the air" (Wilbur Wright) is an exciting
       | goal.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Why does this look like it's entirely CGI?
        
         | AustinDev wrote:
         | Resolution and framerate. What were you watching the video in?
        
       | Zak wrote:
       | I am (perhaps unreasonably) annoyed by the mixed units. The
       | narrator and captions are using knots for speed, which is
       | standard for aviation in most of the world. The on-screen display
       | is using km/h, which is standard for everything else in most of
       | the world.
        
         | 369548684892826 wrote:
         | And ft/s for vertical speed. Really got a bit of everything
         | going on there!
        
           | aero-glide2 wrote:
           | That is standard for vertical speed everywhere
        
             | bernulli wrote:
             | That's funny for someone with aero-glide2 as user name. I'm
             | used to metric variometers in gliders.
        
               | chipsa wrote:
               | And yet, excepting two countries (IIRC), altitude is
               | normally in feet for ATC. Which means instruments are in
               | feet.
        
       | throwaway019254 wrote:
       | It has vertical take off? It must burn so much electricity for
       | that?
       | 
       | Wouldn't be classic horizontal take off more efficient?
        
       | mrfusion wrote:
       | I was actually just thinking that VTOL aircraft could solve the
       | housing crisis considering we're using 1000s of acres of prime
       | real estate in every city for airports. Anyone want to flesh out
       | that idea and write it up?
       | 
       | (I'd be curious if anyone could correct my thinking instead of
       | downvoting)
        
         | TulliusCicero wrote:
         | There's no way airports use enough land to be able to 'solve
         | the housing crisis' by using it for housing.
         | 
         | The housing crisis is an entirely self-created problem by the
         | societies it exists in, and it has little to do with amount of
         | land. For example, Japan and South Korea have relative little
         | land -- and in the case of Japan, very little non-mountainous
         | land -- relative to their population, and yet rent prices there
         | are quite affordable, even in the megacities of Tokyo and
         | Seoul.
         | 
         | Western cities tend to have some combination of greater
         | restrictions on density/housing forms, and harder/more
         | ambiguous red tape to develop new buildings. Relaxing these
         | regulations would at least alleviate, it not outright solve the
         | crisis, but people just don't wanna do that. It's not a
         | technical issue, it's just that the political will isn't there.
         | 
         | As an example of ambiguous red tape, take the ubiquitous
         | "community meetings" that are common in US cities any time
         | there's a major new development. It's common for neighbors to
         | raise random objections that may or may not relate to any
         | building codes or zoning regulations, and then a planning board
         | to force the developer to adapt to those objections, or just
         | block the project outright.
         | 
         | What this means, is that there's really two sets of laws: one
         | on the books, that was developed through normal democratic
         | processes like city council members voting on them, or local
         | initiatives passing, and then the second set is whatever the
         | local residents feel like accepting in their heads.
         | 
         | We would never accept this for other laws, the idea of, "well
         | sure you didn't break any laws on paper, but local residents
         | don't like what you did and a few raised a stink about it at a
         | community meeting, so you're going to jail anyway." But that's
         | how building permitting actually works. You can't just follow
         | actual laws, you have to make the subset of people who show up
         | to community meetings all happy.
        
         | hrgiger wrote:
         | I didnt downvote, I think those VTOLs also at the end gonna
         | land somewhere, its reminds me this pic [1].
         | 
         | https://www.google.com/search?q=1+bus+vs+related+cars&newwin...
        
           | jillesvangurp wrote:
           | They can land on roofs, in parks, any open area large enough
           | basically.
           | 
           | That kind of is the whole point being able to land anywhere.
           | Short term, anything that already accommodates helicopters
           | would be good enough. The problem with those is mainly that
           | helicopters are very noisy so people don't like to have
           | helipads everywhere.
           | 
           | But considering, these VTOL planes tend to be a lot less
           | noisy, having them land in more places might end up being
           | less controversial.
           | 
           | Either way, it would be a perfectly valid way to commute
           | 50-80 miles in ten minutes or so and skip the 2 hour car
           | ride. I could see that become a popular thing. Initially
           | probably quite expensive but the pitch for these devices
           | seems to be that they could be mass produced cheaply.
        
             | hrgiger wrote:
             | Yes my answer was for the airport, I definitely would like
             | to see them around and try it!
        
             | jltsiren wrote:
             | Any powered aircraft large enough to carry a person is
             | inherently noisy and dangerous. All serious vertiport
             | proposals I have seen for quiet electric aircraft assume a
             | dedicated facility at least as large as a city block. And
             | even those are only feasible if there is no significant
             | NIMBYism in the area.
             | 
             | Rooftop landing pads could work, at least in principle.
             | They are however risky enough that Western cities often
             | outright ban them in urban areas or limit their use to
             | emergency situations.
        
           | mrfusion wrote:
           | That's true but runways are quite long and we need several of
           | them at least.
           | 
           | And we wouldn't need the same level of centralization for
           | small landing pads.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | No city will be scrapping its runways. Period. So if you
             | add VTOL pads that takes more of high value real estate.
        
       | andbberger wrote:
       | the hover power density is insane, 2500W/kg
        
         | ur-whale wrote:
         | Oh, wow, that is intense indeed. Where did you get these
         | numbers? Was it in the vid?
        
       | m00dy wrote:
       | and again, we see an amazing german engineering.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | carabiner wrote:
       | Making a comment to represent all aerospace professionals getting
       | major gell-man amnesia vibes from this thread.
        
       | xeromal wrote:
       | Is hydrogen gas dense enough to power an aircraft? I don't think
       | battery technology will be dense enough to power aircraft in our
       | lifetimes, but I feel like hydrogen could play a part
        
         | NegativeLatency wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_CL-400_Suntan
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | There are a few flying prototypes of various sizes, so clearly
         | there's a big flaw in your argument.
         | 
         | In principle you can burn hydrogen in a jet or even in an
         | internal combustion engine. Both have already been shown to
         | work. Fuel cells are another possibility of course. As far as I
         | understand it, most plane manufacturers are already designing
         | planes with hyrdogen as a power source. Particularly for big
         | Jets, the consensus seems to be that that is happening.
         | 
         | The main challenge in the market is similar with what we've
         | seen with existing car manufacturers. Changing technology
         | disrupts them and threatens their profitability. So, you see
         | companies that are talking the talk but not really committing
         | to much beyond that. E.g. Airbus and Boeing have lots of fancy
         | concept planes but not much in the line of actual planes being
         | designed and marketed yet.
         | 
         | As for battery, there are several battery powered planes flying
         | and certified (or in the process of being certified). Most of
         | the companies behind those are following up with longer range
         | versions that they've already announced.
         | 
         | Maybe aviation fuel goes a bit further but it is very
         | expensive. Especially for general aviation, the value
         | proposition might look pretty good a few years down the line
         | with better ranges and charging speeds and lower cost. That
         | does not even require that much in terms of breakthroughs in
         | energy density either. Anything certified today is using
         | battery tech that is several years old and was probably picked
         | conservatively to speed up the process. That's just the nature
         | of the certification process. What's flying legally today was
         | the state of the art about half a decade ago in terms of
         | batteries. Probably not that impressive compared to the latest
         | electrical cars.
        
         | ggreer wrote:
         | Hydrogen looks good on paper but has a lot of practical issues.
         | 
         | - Currently, the most economically efficient method to obtain
         | hydrogen is by methane steam reforming. This releases a lot of
         | CO2.
         | 
         | - If you want to get hydrogen without making CO2, you'll need
         | to use electricity to split water. That's around 60-70%
         | efficient. If you used the same electricity to charge a
         | battery, it would be over 90% efficient.
         | 
         | - Hydrogen embrittlement is a problem for tanks and pipes. This
         | means you can't easily repurpose natural gas infrastructure.
         | 
         | - Hydrogen has no odor, and adding an odorant can foul fuel
         | cells. The most effective solution is to add hydrogen sensors
         | everywhere, increasing costs.
         | 
         | - Hydrogen burns with an invisible flame. It's also much more
         | easily ignited than gasoline and will burn in a wider range of
         | concentrations. (Though unlike gasoline, it won't pool up.)
         | 
         | - Hydrogen is a small enough molecule that it will slowly
         | permeate through a sealed tank. Newer tanks have coatings that
         | reduce this, but research is ongoing.
         | 
         | - Remember the ideal gas law? The pressure change involved in
         | refilling a hydrogen tank causes the nozzle to get very cold.
         | Even in southern California this can freeze the nozzle to the
         | tank, limiting refill speeds.
         | 
         | - Hydrogen is light, but tanks are heavy. The Toyota Mirai's
         | tanks weigh 87.5kg but can only store 5kg of hydrogen.
         | 
         | Considering all of these disadvantages, I don't think hydrogen
         | aircraft are going to happen.
        
         | p_l wrote:
         | Hydrogen has been tested, including in Soviet Union which
         | considered it the future fuel for airliners, tested on Tu-154M
         | modified for cryogenic hydrogen fuel.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | Lithium Battery are already enough to power some airplanes.
         | Airplanes now in development using current battery tech are
         | already targeting many niches.
         | 
         | They will not fly across oceans for a while but a lot of
         | aviation is limited to one continent.
         | 
         | And beyond that, the cheaper operational cost, can change how
         | flights routes significantly and even open more markets.
         | 
         | The problem with airplanes is partly that it takes a very long
         | time to design a new one and the cost are significant. To
         | create a longer range electric plane, you need to really start
         | from the ground up, and rethink the airplane. Even with cars
         | this took 10-15 years. For planes it will be even more
         | difficult.
        
         | stareatgoats wrote:
         | Agree: https://newatlas.com/aircraft/hypoint-gtl-lightweight-
         | liquid...
        
         | skykooler wrote:
         | Hydrogen has an excellent energy-to-weight ratio, but in terms
         | of energy-to-volume it's even worse than lithium-ion batteries
         | as a gas. This is why proposals for hydrogen airliners usually
         | need a complicated cryogenic setup to store it as liquid
         | hydrogen instead.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | You don't need a "complicated" cryogenic setup. You just need
           | insulated tankage. But it won't fit in the wings, so you need
           | new airframes or fuel nacelles.
           | 
           | We have a very great deal of experience with fuel nacelles
           | already, because that is what a "drop tank" looks like; you
           | just omit the "drop" complication. The advantages over
           | inboard tankage are safety, possible retrofitting of existing
           | fleets, and short plumbing runs.
           | 
           | Once LH2 aircraft are used on any route, kerosene craft will
           | be wholly unable to compete, even without carbon taxes.
           | Carbon taxes could be spent on accelerating the transition.
        
             | hgomersall wrote:
             | Or a radically different airframe design. One that perhaps
             | is much bigger and flies slower but is very low weight (by
             | virtue of being mostly full of hydrogen).
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | A different airframe design would take a long time to
               | field, and with inboard tankage arguably less safe.
        
         | Kerrick wrote:
         | There is already a type-certified electric aircraft.
         | https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/aircraft/electric-flight/...
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | Hydrogen looks like the perfect storage medium for aviation,
         | except that every way people created to store it is either very
         | dangerous or reduces its energy density enough that it becomes
         | similar to batteries.
        
       | runlevel1 wrote:
       | Having motors along the whole trailing edge of the wing surely
       | kills the glide ratio of this, right?
       | 
       | Losing power on one side seems like an even more frightening
       | prospect. Even if the motors were somehow allowed to freely
       | windmill, that's a lot of surface area for drag.
       | 
       | At the very least, it must have some unusual aerodynamic
       | properties.
        
         | melony wrote:
         | Why is the airflow so turbulent over the trailing edge? Is it
         | even considered a full transition?
        
         | rklaehn wrote:
         | > Having motors along the whole trailing edge of the wing
         | surely kills the glide ratio of this, right?
         | 
         | The motors are running at reduced thrust and changed geometry
         | during all parts of the flight.
         | 
         | Regarding power loss: Last time I read about it in more detail,
         | the impellers were organised in groups of 3, and you could lose
         | one such module anywhere on the plane, even on the front
         | canards, without issues. On the wings you could probably lose
         | several.
         | 
         | If you lose all electricity everywhere that would be a bad day,
         | but the same is true for a modern airliner with fly by wire
         | controls.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Modern airliners are equipped with ram air turbines to
           | provide electrical power for critical systems even if they
           | lose all engines and the APU.
        
       | fmakunbound wrote:
       | Recently read unleaded aviation fuel seems to be an
       | insurmountable problem for the FAA. Will it be that hard with
       | electric aircraft or is it further along?
        
         | p_l wrote:
         | Completely unrelated.
         | 
         | The issue with unleaded fuel is that the goal is to make it a
         | drop-in replacement on all engines that currently use
         | AVGAS100LL, which is the only remaining leaded fuel in large
         | use (a lot of small planes can actually fly on unleaded
         | aviation fuels and there are some available, it's just 100LL is
         | "default" fuel when thinking of piston engines). So they have
         | to certify that if you swap the fuel, preferably without any
         | modifications, then it's safe to fly.
         | 
         | Battery powered aircraft go through normal certification
         | process for a new design.
        
       | akrymski wrote:
       | 1. We already have VTOLs - helicopters. How do the economics of
       | this compares to helicopters?
       | 
       | 2. Surely hydrogen is a better fuel source for VTOL?
        
         | sigmoid10 wrote:
         | 1. Helicopters are technically VTOL, but what you'd really want
         | is something that can transition between vertical takeoff and
         | horizontal flight using conventional wings, which is much more
         | efficient and stable when travelling from A to B.
         | 
         | 2. VTOL requires engines which provide very high thrust and
         | very short response time during vertical ascent. This is
         | incredibly hard to do using combustion engines - which includes
         | hydrogen - but trivial using electric engines, which is why
         | every cheap drone can easily fly using only vertically mounted
         | propellers.
        
           | robonerd wrote:
           | > _VTOL requires engines which provide very high thrust and
           | very short response time during vertical ascent_
           | 
           | Not necessarily. That's how you do it with electric
           | multirotors, because it's simple and electric motors are good
           | at it. With turbine powered VTOLs, the rotor blades are
           | actuated to change their angle of attack, and consequently
           | how much lift they're producing, using swashplates and cyclic
           | controls. That's what traditional helicopters do, and what
           | tiltrotors like the V-22 do too.
           | 
           | Incidentally I think tiltrotors are what you're describing as
           | the VTOL ideal; they take off like helicopters then
           | transition into horizontal flight using conventional (albeit
           | stubby) wings. They're not exactly a runaway success and have
           | had a rocky history, but they do work.
        
       | reacharavindh wrote:
       | This has been one of my "shower thoughts"..
       | 
       | If jet fuel is very efficient and dense for the more demanding
       | take off and low altitude legs of the flight, we aren't there
       | concepts that do a hybrid of jet fuel and electric powered
       | flights that use the electric propellers only where they are
       | efficient, leaving the existing system for the more challenging
       | tasks like take off?
        
         | ramesh31 wrote:
         | Same problem as all hybrid power systems; weight and
         | complexity. You can't get away with generalist designs in an
         | aircraft the way you can with a land or water vehicle. Carrying
         | around the weight and drag penalties of an unused engine would
         | more than detract from any efficiency gain with an electric
         | auxiliary.
        
           | Ekaros wrote:
           | Also unlike with sea where efficiency gains from hybrids out
           | gain the mass and volume losses, same doesn't apply to air.
           | 
           | Also, some of the engine types like turboprops are pretty
           | good already. And hybrid systems likely won't make gains and
           | probably even lose quite a bit.
        
         | krallja wrote:
         | Then you have two different energy storage areas plus two
         | different drive trains, and the associated weight gain that
         | implies. Hybrid road vehicles make it work because they have
         | the weight supported by the ground, plus the additional benefit
         | of regenerative braking, which evens out energy usage in stop-
         | and-go and hilly travel. Planes don't work at all in either
         | scenario.
        
         | cjbprime wrote:
         | There are some electric gliders which at least use the same
         | intuition -- you need a ride for takeoff, but then there's an
         | electric sustaining motor for once you're in the air (and don't
         | have lift).
        
         | rwmj wrote:
         | Or can you have a 100' long cable to directly power the lift
         | off and first hundred feet of the flight? (For a conventional
         | runway takeoff, some kind of powered tracks.)
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | Aircraft carriers effectively have powered tracks. As I
           | understand it, this is currently quite dangerous and
           | expensive.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | Because we use the engines to generate hydraulic power and
         | electric power, and on larger planes it drives the air
         | conditioning. The engines do a lot more than just provide
         | thrust.
        
         | p_l wrote:
         | In addition to other comments here about increased weight and
         | complexity...
         | 
         | There's an area where it makes sense, and it's being trialed in
         | few places. Namely electric propulsion for taxiing.
         | 
         | You see, Taxiing on jet engines is very, very, very inefficient
         | - you stay pretty much in worst fuel economy all the time to
         | the point that taxiing burns more fuel than few hundred
         | kilometers of cruise on the heaviest airliners. In fact
         | optimizing taxiing is important enough that landings are
         | calculated to ensure you have shorter distance and can reuse
         | kinetic energy from landing, and depending on plane it might be
         | norm to shut off all engines except one during taxi.
         | 
         | So there's experimentation with either adding electric
         | drivetrain to main gear or having remote-controlled pulling car
         | or quick-detachable (and also remote controlled) drive blocks
         | that could attach to main gear. This way the plane would only
         | start the engines just before going onto its designated runway.
        
           | dwighttk wrote:
           | I am not an expert
           | 
           | This doesn't seem to make any sense to me. If taxiing is so
           | inefficient, why not use the pushback carts to push/pull the
           | planes into position?
           | 
           | I've been to many more airports that make the plane taxi for
           | quite a distance, like 20 minutes (not just sitting and
           | waiting, but moving) to get to the gate than ones that
           | "ensure you have shorter distance and can reuse kinetic
           | energy from landing"
        
             | p_l wrote:
             | That's essentially what the prototype projects are doing,
             | except optimized for taxiing vs. "just" pushback or
             | maintenance moves - normal pushback truck is not exactly
             | prepared to handle high traffic taxiing, partially due to
             | how communication between aircraft and pushback is handled.
             | 
             | So those projects investigate a solution that is optimized
             | for the whole taxi trip at full traffic at the airport,
             | including electric solutions to avoid currently heavy
             | diesel pushback trucks.
        
           | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
           | This all just furthers my idea that if I'm ever a time
           | traveler, I'll try and convince the past to make airplanes
           | that all have aircraft carrier sling shot systems... for fun.
        
             | stavros wrote:
             | Taxiing is the process of getting the plane to the
             | slingshot.
        
               | simonsarris wrote:
               | Yeah, you'd need to convince the past that "tugboats but
               | for aircraft" is a good thing to standardize.
        
       | baybal2 wrote:
       | Lilium is a shady company
       | 
       | First, it's people without even most basic aeronautic backround
       | designing an aircraft.
       | 
       | Second, the number of flaws with their scheme being pointed by
       | experts is so huge they cannot possibly get certified without
       | throwing out everything, and redesigning completely from scratch.
       | 
       | Third, they finally hired somebody with the background, but so
       | far nobody seen any change from "submarine ramen startup," to a
       | serious company happening. Unlike with SpaceX, where Elon
       | promptly yielded to professional engineers shutting down his
       | fantasies like an SSTO design, 3D printing the whole rocket, or
       | developing an ion engine to replace chemical one for last stages.
       | 
       | Fourth, they lash out on all criticism with "you have no vision,"
       | it's "aircraft 2.0," and similar dismissal.
       | 
       | Fifth, they courted investors with physically unachievable
       | performance figures.
       | 
       | To me it's very clear, the company is heading the way of "HTML
       | supercomputer"
       | 
       | P.S. Speak of the devil, it's already starting:
       | https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2022-06-02/lilium-i...
        
         | heisenbit wrote:
         | They have 600 people, onboarding a veteran Airbus exec as CEO
         | and are located in the south of Germany which is the center of
         | the German aircraft and high tech manufacturing industry. On
         | the surface they pass my smell test.
         | 
         | From their website: > As Co-founder and VP Product, Patrick
         | leads the global digital and physical product strategy owning
         | the technical operation readiness of the aircraft and its
         | mobility service . He holds a PhD in Aerospace Engineering from
         | the Technical University of Munich.
         | 
         | Claiming they have no clue seems to be without facts.
        
           | bouchard wrote:
           | Their website isn't exactly up to date.
           | 
           | Dr. Patrick Nathen who published Lilium's white paper
           | detailing their aircraft architecture has left his VP role
           | and is now an engineer within their flight mechanics team
           | [0].
           | 
           | [0] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dr-patrick-
           | nathen-1a0840b3_en...
        
           | baybal2 wrote:
        
         | snek_case wrote:
         | I'm also highly skeptical. I've heard from someone in the
         | industry that their original demos were intentionally
         | misleading. They had images of the Lilium aircraft taking off
         | and flying for a bit, but what they didn't tell you was that
         | the thing that was flying was essentially a large foam model
         | that probably weighed 1/10th of what the real thing would. I
         | don't know if that's the case anymore, but I wouldn't
         | personally invest my own money in them though. Joby seems like
         | they have a much more promising electric aircraft.
         | 
         | I don't have a position in either company nor in any electric
         | aircraft stocks.
        
         | hrgiger wrote:
         | That law firm looks like quite active on stock market [1].
         | There are like hundreds of them I saw on the news.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://www.globenewswire.com/en/search/organization/Portnoy...
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | > Unlike with SpaceX, where Elon promptly yielded to
         | professional engineers shutting down his fantasies like an SSTO
         | design, 3D printing the whole rocket, or developing an ion
         | engine to replace chemical one for last stages.
         | 
         | What's the source for that?
        
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