[HN Gopher] Does the Tank Have a Future?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Does the Tank Have a Future?
        
       Author : martincmartin
       Score  : 115 points
       Date   : 2022-06-15 15:44 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
        
       | Melatonic wrote:
       | I am still waiting for when we get individual tank like things or
       | tank suits. Lots of SciFi and Anime has talked about it for years
       | but I feel like there has to be some efficient middleground
       | between a bunch of dudes in a modern tank vs just running around
       | as infantry with body armor. I am not necessarily talking about
       | an Iron Man like thing - just something much more nimble.
        
       | topspin wrote:
       | Tanks were created to cope with two dominant threats: small arms
       | and artillery shrapnel; the WW1 battlefield of machine guns and
       | massed artillery. They've been improved to cope with some new
       | threats since, but the number of threats are multiplying rapidly.
       | The cost and complexity of tanks is exploding trying to deal with
       | all of militarized model airplanes (Bayraktar et al.), guided
       | artillery rounds (BONUS), long range armor seeking missiles
       | (Brimstone), guided mortar rounds (XM395), intelligent anti-armor
       | mines (PTKM-1R), man portable antitank weapons
       | (Javelin/NLAW/Stugna-P/...), improved RPGs, etc.
       | 
       | In a world where there is a Stugna-P "behind every blade of
       | grass" tanks become a liability. I think they'll be scaled back
       | to niches; there will probably always be a need for a big chunk
       | of metal to push through and blow holes in things. Going forward
       | though, the German Blitzkrieg model or Russia's Horde Of Armor
       | doctrine is dead when the combatants are not greatly asymmetric.
        
         | ckozlowski wrote:
         | I think that's a slightly skewed way of looking at it. While
         | there's some nuggets of truth there, the better way to look at
         | a tank is that it provides highly mobile firepower, combined
         | with enough protection to get in there and do it's job. And
         | that job is to support the infantry by, as you stated so well,
         | "blow holes in things" (Quickly, might add!)
         | 
         | But it never was meant to operate on it's own. And when it did,
         | it was either lost in large numbers (Russian tank charges in
         | WWII) or was in all actuality a fluke (Your Blitzkrieg example.
         | See The Chieftan's video on the Battle of France in WWII on why
         | this was such a reckless thing to do, followed by reading on
         | the Battle of The Bulge on why it didn't work a second time.)
         | 
         | Tanks _unsupported by infantry_ are a liability. However,
         | infantry, unsupported by tanks, can be a liability as well when
         | attacking an opponent who 's well fortified and/or has heavy
         | weapons. When tanks, infantry, and artillery work together
         | (combined arms theory), then the danger posed by ATGMs and the
         | like is greatly reduced. Armies have been reminded of this
         | numerous times last century, and each time a renewed emphasis
         | on combined arms fixes the balance.
         | 
         | Lastly, and I feel this point is missing in a lot of arguments:
         | ATGMs like Javelin, mines, guided mortars, etc and all but the
         | heaviest drones are defensive and supporting weapons. For ATGMs
         | and RPGs, these weapons exist to prevent infantry from being
         | overrun. (And as the Russians are being reminded, they can be
         | quite good at this.) They are _not_ offensive weapons. That is
         | the reason the tank remains. It 's offensive.
        
       | metabagel wrote:
       | New German tank aims to be harder to kill.
       | 
       | https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a40277518/...
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | metabagel wrote:
         | Here's an article with no paywall.
         | 
         | https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/rheinmetall-unveils-new-...
        
           | nerpderp82 wrote:
           | For profit, "for export" weapons systems are morally
           | reprehensible.
        
       | edmcnulty101 wrote:
       | I never understood why the tank tracks weren't targeted.
       | 
       | They look easy to immobilize.
        
         | chrisseaton wrote:
         | They're relatively easily replaced and repaired.
        
         | mike-the-mikado wrote:
         | I believe that tank tracks break frequently and the tank will
         | carry the spare parts required to make a repair.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | Also if you look at a tank it's basically a shell around the
           | treads - you have to hit it directly on the side or a small
           | opening on the front, both of which may not disable the
           | tread.
        
         | mtnGoat wrote:
         | this just makes the machine immobile it doesn't lessen its
         | lethality. Also those tracks are pretty dang well designed as
         | they have used across both military and industrial applications
         | for a long time now.
        
         | mrguyorama wrote:
         | Why do you think tank tracks aren't targeted? Unless you can
         | directly pen/destroy a tank in one shot, in which case why
         | would you not do that, "tracking" a tank is a common tactic to
         | make it combat ineffective.
        
           | edmcnulty101 wrote:
           | That entire article was about attacking the tank everywhere
           | but the tracks.
        
       | metabagel wrote:
       | Fantastic visuals accompanying the article!
        
         | causi wrote:
         | They're slick but not terribly accurate. For example, the top-
         | attack angle for the Javelin is depicted as far more vertical
         | than it actually is. It's actually only about 50 degrees, which
         | means it doesn't perform as much better than the NLAW as the
         | specs would suggest thanks to the NLAW's 90 degree top attack.
        
           | calcifer wrote:
           | It's an article meant for the general public. I think the
           | visuals demonstrate the "it comes from above" nature of it
           | quite well enough.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | breadloaf wrote:
       | Yes it does. See "The Chieftain: No, The Tank Is Not Dead"
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8
       | 
       | TLDW: Tank has a task on a battlefield and fact that you can
       | easily kill it won't take that task away. Same goes for infantry
       | and they are not going away either. On the other hand we don't
       | see battleships anymore, because big guns were replaced by
       | precise missiles with much more range.
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | I always thought that battleships were ursurped by carriers.
         | Aircraft killed the battleships.
        
           | russellbeattie wrote:
           | And now advanced self-targeting hypersonic intercontinental
           | ballistic missiles are going to soon usurp carriers. Just a
           | few dozen launched from land will easily overwhelm any
           | defense a carrier has.
           | 
           | You know how everything in our lives is slowly becoming
           | smart? This goes for all the weapons too.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ship_ballistic_missile
        
             | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
             | Surprisingly enough, the AEGIS Anti Ballistic Missile
             | variant is in fact designed to intercept the name on the
             | tin. That a handful of lazy journalists write "carriers are
             | dead" articles with some regularity doesn't mean the actual
             | Pentagon is clueless and asleep at the wheel vs it being a
             | superficial take of a much more complex topic.
             | 
             | A couple years back the Navy asked congress for funding to
             | demonstrate taking down an inbound saturation attack of
             | 500+ missiles, probably as a deterrent to China. Congress
             | declined.
        
             | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
             | This made me chuckle. Not that it's impossible but that is
             | quite hand wavey for a very tough technical challenge
             | nobody is close to accomplishing yet.
             | 
             | Sure. And carriers can simply launch their reusable
             | hypersonic smart drone swarm shields and submerge
             | underwater.
        
               | 323 wrote:
               | A carrier costs $10 billion. Without considering the crew
               | and stuff in it. You can fire 50 $100 mil missiles
               | simultaneously at it would still make a lot of sense,
               | especially considering the morale aspect.
        
           | Sakos wrote:
           | Aircraft aren't anything without their missiles.
        
             | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
             | This sea change happened in WWII though.
        
           | themadturk wrote:
           | It's the same thing, if you think of aircraft as missiles.
           | The point is the extension of range. Aircraft can reach out
           | much, much further than a naval gun, and can be used to scout
           | more effectively (many 20th century battleships had aircraft
           | of their own for scouting/fire spotting). Even modern
           | missile-equipped warships are less flexible in some ways than
           | a carrier air wing, though we have yet to see warfare pitting
           | a modern carrier battle group against anti-ship missiles.
        
         | ckozlowski wrote:
         | Came here to post this, so glad to see you did!
         | 
         | I'll add a complimentary link for others' benefit from Military
         | History Visualized: "Tanks are obsolete, apparently since 1919"
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPth_xqBXGY
         | 
         | In short, people forget about Combined Arms warfare. One cannot
         | look at the tank, or other arms of a military without
         | understanding how it supports and is supported by the others.
         | When that is overlooked, misunderstandings and exaggerated
         | conclusions are the result.
        
         | CamperBob2 wrote:
         | The only reason you'd use tanks _or_ infantry in a modern war
         | is that you don 't have enough drones and missiles.
         | 
         | Maybe _you 're_ willing to climb into a tank after what we've
         | seen in Ukraine recently, but that's all you, pal.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | If you want to occupy territory, you've got to do that on the
           | ground.
        
             | CamperBob2 wrote:
             | Tanks and soldiers are used to occupy territory, but in the
             | face of a well-equipped enemy and/or a motivated populace,
             | they can't hold it.
             | 
             | Not everybody _likes_ wars of attrition. Russia is an
             | outlier in that regard. Copying their doctrine and tactics
             | is a bad idea, as is citing them as a successful example of
             | how to accomplish anything. They are great at beating up on
             | unarmed civilians, but against a modern armed force they
             | wouldn 't stand a chance... and no amount of tanks and
             | soldiers will change that.
        
               | zoomablemind wrote:
               | >... They are great at beating up on unarmed civilians,
               | but against a modern armed force they wouldn't stand a
               | chance...
               | 
               | ...modern armed force and which is willing and allowed to
               | fight. It's an increasingly important factor of modern
               | day engagements.
               | 
               | Let's not forget the political aspects of the
               | battlefield, as we are continuing to witness.
        
               | paganel wrote:
               | >, but against a modern armed force they wouldn't stand a
               | chance.
               | 
               | They seem to be doing quite well against the modern army
               | of Ukraine, NATO-trained for 7-8 years now.
        
               | yks wrote:
               | The line of engagement barely moved in 3 months all the
               | while Ukraine is hopelessly outgunned, Russians are doing
               | quite well indeed /s. In reality UAF wasn't even a really
               | modern army, just more modern than Russia, and all their
               | "NATO" training in effect started in 2014.
               | 
               | Where do people get the impression that Russian army is
               | strong and capable is beyond me, they just throw people
               | into the meat grinder and sit on top of the infinite
               | Soviet arsenal of old equipment.
        
             | FredPret wrote:
             | If Clausewitz is to be believed, killing the enemy army is
             | priority 1, and territory only matters in pursuit of that
             | goal.
             | 
             | Makes sense - if all combatants in the Russian army are
             | dead, there's no further need to defend territory for
             | Ukraine. A boom with a border guard stamping passports
             | would suffice.
        
               | michaelt wrote:
               | Right, but what if you want to chase the Russians out of
               | Ukraine _without_ killing the Russian army to the last
               | man?
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | A temporary solution at best. You chase them out and
               | they'll eventually come at you again, until they are dead
               | or disbanded.
        
               | zoomablemind wrote:
               | When it gets to that point, the russian army without
               | supply lines will have no other means to stay engaged.
               | 
               | Thus the priority from the very beginning was to disrupt
               | the supply lines and ability to generate resources,
               | meanwhile securing own supply and resources.
               | 
               | Ukraine needs more supply of long range artillery and lot
               | more ammo for it ... yesterday and right now!
        
               | jltsiren wrote:
               | "War is a continuation of policy by other means."
               | 
               | Political goals are always the first priority. Fighting
               | may be exciting, but it may also be irrelevant in the
               | grand scheme of things. Defeating the enemy is neither
               | necessary nor sufficient for winning the war.
        
           | vorpalhex wrote:
           | You can't occupy an objective with a drone or a missile. You
           | can't control a city with a drone.
           | 
           | Infantry and AFVs that support them will never go away. They
           | may change but war isn't just about destruction.
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Oh yes you can. Just not a flying drone and not just one.
        
               | ninkendo wrote:
               | I'm going to avoid the quippy sarcastic response and try
               | my best to be curious:
               | 
               | How would you occupy a city with only drones? What would
               | it look like? Would they issue orders to civilians to
               | stay in their homes? What sort of objectives that humans
               | do now in war [0] do you think drones can fully replace?
               | 
               | [0] establishing forward bases for further logistical
               | support, "securing" areas, including searching through
               | rubble for humans and making sure they're not a threat,
               | etc. I've never been in the military so I don't know from
               | experience but I'm pretty sure there's tons of other
               | examples here.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | But your not flying drone is going to look like a
               | tankette, aka the autonomous combat warrior weasel from
               | Rheinmetall.
        
               | vorpalhex wrote:
               | Maybe.
               | 
               | There are some experiments using turret style drones to
               | maintain like DMZs. They still need a human operator.
               | That is a case where you are mostly just waiting though.
               | 
               | Seizing a town means dealing with a ton of civilians -
               | negotiating, handling mixed reports, etc. Drones may
               | become part of that but cameras are imperfect and you
               | will need people unless Drone tech has a giant leap in
               | human interfacing.
        
           | usrn wrote:
           | I'm not sure willingness matters as much in the military as
           | you seem to think.
        
             | CamperBob2 wrote:
             | We'll see. We have an all-volunteer military here in the
             | US, and that won't change, at this point. The idea, as
             | always, is to get more done with fewer people.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | It'll change very fast once US gets into a major war.
               | Say, with China.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Never say never, but you really don't want that to
               | happen.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | I didn't say anything about wanting it to happen. But if
               | it happens, does anyone seriously believe that US could
               | avoid re-instituting the draft?
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > But if it happens, does anyone seriously believe that
               | US could avoid re-instituting the draft?
               | 
               | The US no longer has a draft law because the US
               | determined that the draft was bad both from a military
               | manpower perspective and from a domestic politics
               | perspective as to maintaining national will to continue a
               | conflict.
               | 
               | The US will not reauthorize a draft for an overseas war
               | while the US remains a major power. If the US collapses
               | from major power status and the entire political and
               | military calculus is scrambled, it might.
        
               | remarkEon wrote:
               | >The US no longer has a draft law because the US
               | determined that the draft was bad both from a military
               | manpower perspective and from a domestic politics
               | perspective as to maintaining national will to continue a
               | conflict.
               | 
               | Nixon got rid of the draft for reasons that had to do
               | with the unpopularity of the Vietnam War and his
               | presidential election. The argument was that the AVF
               | _wouldn 't negatively impact force readiness_, not that
               | the draft was "bad" from a military manpower perspective
               | (I'm not sure what that means). There's some other
               | reasons peppered in correspondence from that time, but
               | I'm super skeptical of this argument for enough reasons
               | to finish a PhD thesis. It's been a long time coming, but
               | the conversation needs to be had about how even if the
               | United States _needed_ to institute a draft we may not
               | actually be able to do so anymore because of the general
               | decline in health and fitness of men in this country.
               | More over, there are civ-mil relations considerations
               | that aren 't properly accounted for when you claim the
               | AVF is superior - we have essentially a warrior caste
               | now, that's in many ways sectioned off from the reset of
               | the civilian population. Good? Bad? Exercise for the
               | reader but you can probably guess my stance.
               | 
               | >The US will not reauthorize a draft for an overseas war
               | while the US remains a major power.
               | 
               | I don't see how these are related. Plenty of non "major"
               | powers have conscription (in some form or another), as do
               | plenty of "major" powers. The US wasn't a "major" power
               | before WWI, though it was certainly "a power", and yet my
               | great grandfather was drafted. Maybe you mean the US
               | won't get into an unwinnable and unpopular ground war in
               | South East Asia and then re-institute the draft, but you
               | may be underestimating the depth of ineptitude of the
               | people who've been running the show the last 30ish years.
               | Everyone I served with was a volunteer, obviously, but
               | war necessitates a lot of things that people would
               | otherwise consider impossible right up until they happen.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > The argument was that the AVF wouldn't negatively
               | impact force readiness, not that the draft was "bad" from
               | a military manpower perspective
               | 
               | The argument for the AVF has evolved over time; the issue
               | wasn't once and done, and the importance of longer
               | service terms in a wide range of specialties has been
               | increasingly cited in arguments for maintaining the AVF.
               | But even in the original Gates Commission report, the AVF
               | was not, contrary to your description, painted as merely
               | non-harmful, but as a more efficient means of meeting
               | military requirements, with extensive supporting
               | analysis.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | There are a lot of voices that seem to believe that
               | isolationism is the way to go and that this will protect
               | their 'lifestyle' from being impacted by the war in
               | Ukraine. It's interesting how apparently some of
               | history's lessons are impossible to learn, the exact same
               | thing happened in 1938 and the end result was a _much_
               | bigger war.
               | 
               | Also, the degree to which the world economies are now
               | interconnected make it next to impossible to believe that
               | a major war in Europe would not impact other parts of the
               | world, which is super naive. Time will tell but I fear
               | that we're in for a very rough ride if this current war
               | doesn't get stopped in its tracks before it can engulf
               | more territories, which ultimately will happen.
               | 
               | The only good thing is that now that the Russians have
               | shown their true goals that the bulk of the 'NATA did
               | this' or 'The Ukrainians only have themselves to blame'
               | people have something to chew on.
        
               | remarkEon wrote:
               | I'm not a fan of our (US + NATO) current Ukraine policy,
               | but that isn't because I'm an isolationist. I think it's
               | just dumb policy, on several different dimensions. The
               | version of the criticism you're leveling right now can be
               | inverted very easily. That the people arguing for
               | escalation in Ukraine, that it's "the exact same thing
               | [that] happened in 1938" (it isn't), and that unless we
               | do things like a NFZ it leads to a larger war, have a
               | cartoon version in their heads of war and geopolitical
               | strategy. Where there's clear boundaries between the
               | "good guys" and "bad guys", like this is some Marvel film
               | where you don't really even need to watch it to know what
               | happens (spoiler alert: the good guys win!). Perhaps they
               | are the ones who have something, and some history, to
               | chew on.
        
               | yks wrote:
               | You either accept a moral responsibility to protect
               | sovereign nations from elimination, and elimination at
               | this point was stated by Russian officials and media as a
               | goal numerous times, or you accept the Russian position
               | of "lands and peoples belong to the strong men" and we're
               | back to the age of conquest, but now with nukes. Not only
               | the former position is morally right, but it also
               | prevents or at least postpones the nuclear proliferation.
               | 
               | This is not only about Ukraine, this is about the whole
               | Eastern Europe, and literally about post WW2 order that
               | you seem to be enjoying the fruits of, if only by hanging
               | out on Hacker News.
        
               | usrn wrote:
               | I completely disagree. You can't go preemptively
               | flattening every country you don't like (I mean, we did
               | for a little while and all it seems to have done is made
               | a bigger mess.)
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Where did I write that you can go to preemptively flatten
               | every country you don't like?
        
               | themadturk wrote:
               | A draft takes a long time to ramp up, and soldiers take a
               | lot of time to train, so we're unlikely to start up a
               | draft unless we expect a conflict to be protracted. The
               | United States is unlikely to invade China and vice versa.
               | A war pitting the US against China is likely to be
               | largely naval- and air-oriented, with ground action (if
               | any) concentrated on Taiwan, and will probably take at
               | most a few weeks or months.
               | 
               | We mustn't forget Vizzini's Aphorism: Never get involved
               | in a land war in Asia.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | If only all the wars that were deemed "unlikely" before
               | they began never happened, we'd all be much better off.
               | 
               | The problem is that once shots are fired, things can
               | escalate very quickly, and decision-making is often not
               | rational.
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | That war (god forbid) might only take a couple of hours
        
               | usrn wrote:
               | Unless it's a land war we're more than able to defeat
               | China with what we've got now and their future looks very
               | dim due to the demographic bomb they've created so that's
               | unlikely to change.
               | 
               | I'm not too sure it would be motivating to people either.
               | Usually what motivates people is the fear of being
               | overrun by some other group but with immigration the way
               | it is that's happening anyway.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | I think the guy has a point in tanks being useful, but
           | nobody's saying it can't be satelite controlled drone tanks.
        
             | CamperBob2 wrote:
             | I think that's a potentially useful idea. At this point,
             | putting _people_ in tanks is irresponsible. But that doesn
             | 't mean they couldn't be used as remotely-operated
             | vehicles.
        
               | kcb wrote:
               | How could you figure? How would they be controlled while
               | under communication jamming? Until autonomous AI exists
               | we'll need people on the ground.
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | The same way that airplane drones are controlled, from a
               | satelite in orbit directly above. To jam that you'd need
               | to get yourself above the tank, which to be fair is
               | probably doable to some extent, so there would have to be
               | countermeasures for it. But it's not exactly impossible.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | Or you launch an anti-satellite missile.
               | 
               | Which is the reason why great-powers don't go to war with
               | each other these days. Forget nukes, the first thing that
               | will be destroyed is each other's satellite communication
               | systems. That alone would devastate the world's economy.
               | 
               | Anti-satellite warfare is a huge reason why the Space
               | Force (stupid name) came into existence.
        
               | smsm42 wrote:
               | Drones fly pretty high and usually avoid contact with the
               | enemy, and if there's trouble, they can easily flee and
               | come back later. For on-the-ground vehicle, one need to
               | stay much closer to the enemy, and if something goes
               | wrong, the opportunities for fleeing are much harder to
               | come by. You certainly don't need to physically be on top
               | of the tank to jam - there are military systems that can
               | disrupt communications in a wide area. And, probably,
               | just dumping something non-transparent on whatever it
               | uses to acquire visual information would work too. There
               | would be nobody to come out and clean it up - a trivial
               | task for a human, much harder for the robotic drone.
               | Humans are very flexible, robots aren't, at least not
               | until we get some AI going. And tbh, if we have such an
               | AI, I'm not sure we really want to give it a tank to
               | drive around.
        
               | dsr_ wrote:
               | If it doesn't have to carry people, it can carry much
               | less armor, which makes it more maneuverable; it might
               | carry so much less mass that it doesn't need tracks to
               | handle rough terrain. If it's light and nimble enough it
               | doesn't need a turret to point the main weapon.
               | 
               | Is a remote-controlled dune buggy with a low-recoil rifle
               | a tank?
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | You still need to protect the ammunition, otherwise a
               | nearby explosion will set it off (this also happens at
               | the moment but less so than I would expect it to happen
               | with less armor, which also would make penetrating the
               | wall much easier and which would make the tank a softer
               | target altogether).
        
               | dsr_ wrote:
               | Sure, but you might not care as much because:
               | 
               | - you can airlift 25 2-ton dune-buggies instead of 1
               | 50-ton tank
               | 
               | - you can buy 25 $2 million dune-buggies for the cost of
               | 2 $25 million tanks
               | 
               | - if you sent 2 tanks, losing one is half of your force
               | projection. If you sent 25 dune-buggies, losing one is 4%
               | of your force.
               | 
               | - maintenance on an unmanned 2-ton dune-buggy has to be
               | easier, faster and cheaper than maintenance on a tank.
               | Tanks need dedicated recovery vehicles (or Ukrainian
               | tractors) that cost nearly as much as another tank.
               | Maintenance is going to be much, much easier without
               | armor and the concomitant suspension for the armor
               | getting in the way.
               | 
               | A hybrid powerplant is probably best -- a diesel motor-
               | generator to charge batteries and run for distance, with
               | an electric motor system and nice quiet relatively cool
               | batteries for an hour or two of sneaking around at a
               | time. Tanks don't sneak up on you, but a hybrid dune-
               | buggy in battery mode can.
               | 
               | This also has knock-on effects for the civilian economy,
               | because if the cool support weapon for the infantry is a
               | quiet hybrid dune-buggy, the same thing with a crew cabin
               | instead of a gun and ammo will be a smash hit.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TUv5xkY0wic
        
             | smsm42 wrote:
             | Probably not with the current level of technology.
             | Especially given that the lifetime of the tank is not only
             | "drive forward and shoot" - it needs to be fueled, oiled,
             | repaired, restocked, pulled out of the mud, etc. Fully
             | automating this would be a very complex task. Especially
             | achieving it on a battlefield where there are people who
             | are present there, unlike the remote controller, and do
             | their best to try and not let you do any of that.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | kashkhan wrote:
         | Maybe war shouldn't have a future and not a role. We've had
         | enough of the european way of war.
        
           | skylanh wrote:
           | This is sort of my reference point from a salient and
           | personal perspective on why government's have departments of
           | defense.
           | 
           | TEDxAmsterdam: Peter van Uhm: Why I chose a gun:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjAsM1vAhW0
           | 
           | Link to TED profile:
           | https://www.ted.com/speakers/peter_van_uhm
           | 
           | "Peter van Uhm [was from 17 April 2008 until 28 June 2012]
           | the Netherlands' chief of defense"
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_van_Uhm
        
             | kashkhan wrote:
             | A government needs to wage war at some level to exist.
             | 
             | To eliminate war the motives for war created by governments
             | need to be addressed. There is only one logical outcome,
             | once you decide you don't want war.
        
               | phillc73 wrote:
               | Dispense with the government?
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | Governments are fine. It's states that are the problem.
               | Nation-states (whether ethnic or civic) especially,
               | because they have motivations to wage war that are
               | connected to the fiction that forms their core: "this
               | territory is historically ours", and "you're treating our
               | people poorly". Both are in full display in Ukraine
               | today, but just look at any "Greater ..." article in
               | Wikipedia to see numerous other examples.
        
               | Mountain_Skies wrote:
               | Unless you somehow achieve global equality in all things,
               | there's always going to be one group that wants something
               | another group has. Combine that with democracy and you
               | get a government that's happy to assist them with taking
               | it.
        
           | mike-the-mikado wrote:
           | Arguably the war is happening because we had prepared for it
           | insufficiently.
        
             | the_af wrote:
             | It's hard to understand how "we" could not have prepared
             | sufficiently. This conflict in Europe isn't a spur of the
             | moment thing. Arguably it could have been in the making
             | since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but even if you
             | don't go that far back, then _at least_ from 2014. It
             | certainly didn 't come out of the blue!
             | 
             | I'll make my comment more assertive: I think "we" (for
             | almost any value of "we") prepared for this. Some
             | assumptions were proven wrong, like it often happens with
             | war. But a lot of it is playing out like many assumed it
             | would, or at least, it's playing out so that some factions
             | can observe what modern war fought with modern weapons
             | looks like.
        
               | vorpalhex wrote:
               | I think EU specifically dropped it's defense and R&D
               | budgets and became too weak, making land grabs by Russia
               | possible.
               | 
               | There's a reason Russia feels good blustering about
               | attacking Finland.
        
               | foverzar wrote:
               | > There's a reason Russia feels good blustering about
               | attacking Finland.
               | 
               | When did that happen?
        
               | vorpalhex wrote:
               | https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-
               | retaliatory...
               | 
               | https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russia-threatens-nukes-for-
               | us-...
               | 
               | https://www.newsweek.com/russia-threatens-finland-sweden-
               | nat...
               | 
               | This was major news and carried by almost every outlet.
               | It is almost certainly just bluster, but escalatory
               | bluster for sure.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | If war was the predictable outcome, Ukraine should
               | probably have been more dovish towards Russian-speaking
               | Ukrainians in the East, ie. not banning Russian language,
               | not shelling cities.
               | 
               | Obviously what Russia has done is reprehensible, but if
               | Ukraine saw war as incoming I don't see why they took
               | these aggravating steps.
        
               | The_Colonel wrote:
               | It's said to see such misinformation here.
               | 
               | > [not] banning Russian language
               | 
               | Russian isn't banned in Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians
               | use Russian in their day to day life just fine. You can
               | hear Russian spoken by Ukrainians on the battlefield.
               | 
               | > not shelling cities
               | 
               | Check photos from Donetsk in e.g. 2020, city ~10
               | kilometers from the frontline. Does it look destroyed?
               | No, it looks like any peacetime city.
               | 
               | There were artillery exchanges between _both_ sides
               | targeting military fortifications. Civilian casualties in
               | the last few years have been minimal.
               | 
               | But this doesn't really matter either way. Putin doesn't
               | care about civilian casualties, otherwise why would he
               | start this war?
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | > Russian isn't banned in Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians
               | use Russian in their day to day life just fine. You can
               | here Russian spoken by Ukrainians on the battlefield.
               | 
               | It is illegal to have Russian language radio stations,
               | Russian language schools, and for government to
               | communicate officially in Russian (in addition to
               | Ukrainian & English). Of course people still speak
               | Russian in Ukraine.
               | 
               | > There were artillery exchanges between both sides
               | targeting military fortifications. Civilian casualties in
               | the last few years have been minimal.
               | 
               | Yes from both sides. 3.4k civilian casualties prior to
               | the actual war.
        
               | The_Colonel wrote:
               | > Of course people still speak Russian in Ukraine.
               | 
               | Then it's not banned as you claimed.
               | 
               | > Yes from both sides. 3.4k civilian casualties prior to
               | the actual war.
               | 
               | With 3000 out of that in 2014 and 2015. In 2021 - 18
               | civilian deaths, half of that caused by unexploded
               | shells/mines - https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files
               | /2021-10/Conflict-...
               | 
               | War in Donbas was actually dying out in the past few
               | years, until Putin decided to escalate it and cause
               | deaths of 10 000s.
        
               | cestith wrote:
               | Russian is as banned in Ukraine as French, Hindi, or
               | German are banned in the United States. That is, they are
               | not the primary language taught in schools nor the
               | language in which government business is conducted but
               | nobody's being jailed for speaking it.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | The comparison with the US is disingenuous - it is not
               | illegal to open a French language school in the United
               | States, it is in Ukraine.
               | 
               | Previously, Russian was allowed to be taught in schools
               | in Ukraine. It was then banned from being taught in
               | schools even in regions where the majority of people
               | speak Russian.
               | 
               | Furthermore, it is illegal in Ukraine to have a Russian
               | language radio station.
               | 
               | I encourage you to read up on the actual policy
               | differences.
        
               | scrose wrote:
               | Many of your statements are outright false.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | For radio: https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-
               | elsewhere-37908828
               | 
               | For schools, businesses and public services:
               | https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210401-new-law-
               | stoke...
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | Evidence beats a bare denial. (Of course, the original
               | claim didn't have any evidence, either...)
               | 
               | "Yes it is" "No it isn't" is a really uninteresting
               | conversation. Somebody supply some _evidence_ , not just
               | claims.
        
               | scrose wrote:
               | I don't have the time to google citable sources to refute
               | false claims without any evidence in the first place. My
               | sources are my own multiple very recent visits to
               | Ukraine(last visit earlier this year), and my extended
               | Ukrainian family and friends who were all taught either
               | only Russian(older and grew up in Russian occupied
               | territories or Eastern Ukraine) and at times spoke
               | Ukrainian under threat of death. Or were taught both
               | Russian and Ukrainian(younger, recent grads from the Kyiv
               | region)
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | I've provided some media reports in another comment.
               | Evidence for everything I've said is also very available
               | on Google.
        
               | cestith wrote:
               | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-parliament-
               | langua... does not mention banning Russian-language
               | schools nor, in fact, mentions banning teaching it in
               | addition to Ukrainian in the same school.
               | 
               | There's an education law that says that starting in 2023,
               | all *state* schools must be taught *primarily* in
               | Ukranian at and above the *fifth grade*. While imperfect,
               | it does allow teaching in several minority languages,
               | especially in primary school. Russian is not allowed at
               | state schools above primary school as a teaching language
               | for other subjects, but it *can* be taught as an elective
               | subject and other organizations are free to teach it. The
               | ECHR implications of this are mentioned specifically by
               | the Venice Commission.
               | 
               | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-
               | language/criticis...
               | 
               | https://web.archive.org/web/20190516190140/https://www.pr
               | esi...
               | 
               | https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/default.asp
               | x?p...
               | 
               | From section 5 of the Venice document.:
               | 
               | "69. Thus, it appears that members of the Bulgarian,
               | Greek, German, Polish, Romanian and Hungarian minorities,
               | in addition to being able to study their language as a
               | subject, may also study one or more other subjects
               | through the medium of their language at the secondary
               | education level. However, members of national minorities
               | who do not speak an official EU language --
               | Byelorussians, Gagauzes, Jews, and, significantly,
               | Russians -- will only be able to study at the secondary
               | school level their language as a subject. Thus, a
               | hierarchy is created at the secondary school level, with
               | indigenous peoples potentially treated more favourably
               | than national minorities which speak an official language
               | of the EU, and national minorities which speak an
               | official language of the EU treated more favourably than
               | other national minorities."
               | 
               | There is a high quota for state-language content on radio
               | but other languages are allowed a percentage. From
               | section 7 of the Venice document.:
               | 
               | "95. With regard to the use of languages in broadcasting,
               | Article 24 refers to the Law on Television and Radio
               | Broadcasting. At the same time, a transitional provision
               | of the Law (Section IX, point 7.24) amends Article 10 of
               | the latter Law, tightening the language quota
               | requirements, by increasing the proportion of the
               | Ukrainian language content for national and regional
               | broadcasters from 75 to 90 per cent and, for the local
               | broadcasters, from 60 to 80 per cent. This amendment will
               | come into force five years after the Law's entry into
               | force (i.e. on 16 July 2024)."
               | 
               | So is the situation perfect for everyone? No. Is the EU
               | (and Hungary and some others) pushing Ukraine to
               | compromise? Yes. Have they promised to work on
               | compromises? Also yes.
               | 
               | There's no need to go beyond the actual, documented
               | issues and spread falsehoods and propaganda.
               | 
               | *TL;DR:* I invite *you* to read up on the issue.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | Russian language isn't banned anywhere in Ukraine.
               | Indeed, 5 minutes of combat footage from the Ukrainian
               | side will quickly show that the majority of their armed
               | forces speak Russian.
               | 
               | Even Russians themselves reflected on this, noting that
               | most volunteer forces they have faced so far come not
               | from the Western (majority-Ukrainian-speaking) regions of
               | Ukraine, but rather from Kharkiv, Dnipro etc. Their
               | explanation is that all those people are "brainwashed by
               | Ukrainian Nazis".
               | 
               | There is some real contention with the status of Russian
               | as 1) the official government language, and 2) the
               | official education language in schools. But I don't think
               | it's fair to phrase that as "banning Russian".
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | It is illegal to have government communication in Russian
               | or to have a Russian language radio station in Ukraine. I
               | would call that banning Russian language from some
               | aspects of public life.
        
               | thraway11 wrote:
               | Do you have a link for this? I hadn't heard about the
               | Russian language being banned. I did know about this from
               | 2019:
               | 
               | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-parliament-
               | langua...
               | 
               | "The new legislation requires TV and film distribution
               | firms to ensure 90 percent of their content is in
               | Ukrainian and for the proportion of Ukrainian-language
               | printed media and books to be at least 50 percent."
               | 
               | It also says civil servants must speak Ukrainian. It does
               | not say they can't also speak Russian.
               | 
               | In any case, that's not a ban.
        
               | whimsicalism wrote:
               | It is illegal for any business to offer services or
               | communicate in Russian unless the customer explicitly
               | asks. It is illegal to have Russian language newspapers
               | or schools, all of which existed before the crackdown.
               | 
               | Turkey has done the same thing to Kurdish speakers and
               | most of the West has rightfully condemned their attempts
               | to crack down on the language.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | And anyway, the Ukrainian population did take those steps
               | when most of them voted for a political outsider from a
               | Russian speaking background seen as sympathetic to
               | Russian speaking culture and somewhat willing to
               | negotiate better relations with the "independent
               | Republics". Putin interpreted that as a sign of
               | weakness...
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | Let's just say I find your comment very on point. I would
               | like to discuss this, but I don't think this is the best
               | venue, and also this is a very sensitive topic and people
               | are likely to be upset. And I wouldn't blame them.
               | 
               | I did want to say your observation is astute.
        
               | zoomablemind wrote:
               | >...Ukraine should probably have been more dovish towards
               | Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East, ie. not banning
               | Russian language, not shelling cities.
               | 
               | This is an understandably myopic view. Especially now, as
               | the whole charade of justification and "objectives" of
               | russia's invasion in Ukraine is in full swing.
               | 
               | Perhaps, remembering that in putin's view, Ukraine is not
               | an independent state, its existence is a mistake, the
               | land is a sphere of russia's influence... well, the
               | madman outright wants it "back" into the "empire".
               | 
               | Thus it has long been clear that no amount of pacifying
               | or "non-irritating" is to alter such policy. Language,
               | aspirations and affinities are simply pre-texts for the
               | forceful grab.
               | 
               | Fundamentally, we're dealing with a clash of mentalities.
               | One adopting to modern day and the one still stuck in the
               | "age of empires".
               | 
               | To putin's russians, tank is a symbol of forceful
               | conquest. So it's not going away. Perhaps, more images of
               | the charred russian army tanks could break this
               | perception... temporarily.
        
               | cestith wrote:
               | Ukraine has, in fact, been partly occupied and claimed by
               | a foreign power since 2014.
        
           | malwrar wrote:
           | What do you propose instead?
           | 
           | A state is always going to need a military to defend its
           | stability and continuity from existential threats. Despite
           | what the internet would have you believe, the world is a
           | massive place with a vast diaspora of peoples with tons of
           | different contradictory policy preferences. I don't think we
           | could give up preparing for the next fight if we wanted to.
        
             | bnralt wrote:
             | What was the last successful offensive war? When was the
             | last time American tanks were successful in creating a
             | positive outcome for United States citizens (which,
             | theoretically, is the entire reason they're built)? You
             | could make an argument for 30 years ago, but you'd need to
             | go back closer to 70 years for a strong case.
             | 
             | The other poster raises a valid point that war, as it is
             | typically been envisioned, might be far less prominent than
             | people realize. The argument is that the tank has a task on
             | the battlefield, but we should ask ourselves how much that
             | battlefield matters in this day and age.
        
               | kashkhan wrote:
               | Right. When did the US last win a war? Even with
               | unlimited weapons, nobody wins any more. Sure you can
               | destroy governments like Saddam and Gaddafi, but you
               | don't win the hearts and minds, and eventually you lose.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | So do what Russia does.
               | 
               | Deport the unfavorable people to Siberia. Then import the
               | willing population into Ukraine.
               | 
               | Given the Russian "tactics" and "strategy" for its war in
               | Ukraine, it is clearly a threat of cultural genocide.
               | Russia aims to destroy the Ukrainian people and their
               | history, and disperse them into Siberia where they won't
               | be able to become a threat.
               | 
               | ---------
               | 
               | USA tries to "win hearts and minds" because we've
               | convinced ourselves that we're the "good guys", and want
               | to win under certain conditions. Without hearts and
               | minds, we lose and we're willing to accept that.
               | 
               | When Russia fights, they're not aiming for that at all.
               | Its just destruction. Even against "brother Slavs", its
               | better for Ukraine to be destroyed than for it to play
               | nice with NATO (or so they want to believe).
               | 
               | Under these circumstances, the only solution is to arm
               | the Ukrainians and give them a fighting chance.
               | Otherwise, the Ukrainians will be completely, and
               | utterly, annihilated as a people.
               | 
               | ----------
               | 
               | Russia has the will and the right strategy here in broad
               | strokes.
               | 
               | They fortunately, don't seem to have the right tactics or
               | approach. So it looks like the Russians will fail. But
               | even as they fail, they will cause hundreds-of-billions,
               | maybe trillions of dollars worth of damages, and likely
               | cause the largest famine event the world has ever seen.
               | 
               | Better weapons and a better defense could have prevented
               | the Ukrainians from losing their coastland. Better
               | weapons could have allowed Ukraine to continue their
               | grain exports. Better weapons and defenses could have
               | protected Ukrainian's grain silos, which are being blown
               | up and pillaged.
        
               | AtlasBarfed wrote:
               | Well, financially (and logistically) the Russians are
               | fighting a losing war of morale and economics. Every day
               | the Ukrainians effectively resist the Russians is a
               | victory for Ukraine and the West.
               | 
               | The West will HAPPILY fund the Ukrainians to proxy
               | destroy the Russian military, and proxy bankrupt them.
               | 
               | We'll see how long Putin lives with cancer. The speed of
               | deployment and assumed schedule for victory would point
               | to very fast cancer.
        
               | kashkhan wrote:
               | Transporting wins in the short term. Extermination wins
               | too. The europeans exterminated the natives on many lands
               | and took over. They have many lands for centuries now.
               | 
               | Not many Ohlone on hacker news.
               | 
               | The US tried exterminating the Taliban, but failed.
        
               | abfan1127 wrote:
               | you're argument is more that American force has been
               | misused, not that it has not place. I'd agree it has been
               | misused for 70 years.
        
               | kashkhan wrote:
               | The US has far superior military now than 70 years ago,
               | and military power imbalance is more in favor of US than
               | ever before.
               | 
               | But the world has changed faster. All use of military now
               | is misuse and futile.
               | 
               | We don't look at veterans now and say wow what heroes. We
               | just thank them for their service. We don't celebrate
               | them for "Mission Accomplished". Thanking is like a
               | participation trophy.
        
           | msla wrote:
           | > We've had enough of the european way of war.
           | 
           | So trying another region's way of war would be an
           | improvement, then?
        
             | kashkhan wrote:
             | Not many continents imposing war on europe past millennium.
             | Europe imposed war on everyone and tried to exterminate
             | everyone else. Do better.
        
               | kansface wrote:
               | Ignoring Africa, Asia and North America more recently,
               | sure!
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | There will _never_ be peace. If there are resources held
           | without power, someone will take them.
           | 
           | The fact that the world is as peaceful as it is now is
           | remarkable. It's because of MAD and the high cost of war.
           | 
           | What we revolt at is the industrial scale of modern war. But
           | war has been with us since prehistory. Our ancestors killed,
           | raped, and pillaged. Far enough back in time, and they even
           | ate one another.
           | 
           | Look to nature. It evolved thousands of types of killing
           | machines to harness the energy of other creatures. Lions eat
           | wild prey alive. Hornets lay their larva inside live hosts so
           | that they can feed. Orcas play with their food for sport.
           | 
           | Just imagine what happens when we get AGI or BCI.
           | 
           | It's easy to be pacifist and condemn war. And we should hope
           | for that. But we also have to protect our sovereignty and
           | safety, and that means maintaining an adequate defense with
           | weapons, food, energy, and supply chain.
           | 
           | Our comfort comes at great cost.
        
           | aetherson wrote:
           | What would your current advice be for the Ukraine?
        
             | paganel wrote:
             | Not the OP, but they should seek for peace as soon as
             | possible, that will reduce the number of dead Ukrainians
             | and also the amount of territory that they might further
             | lose.
             | 
             | Ideally the Zelensky regime should have gotten the message
             | and should have left for the West as soon as the Russian
             | paratroopers landed at Gostomel. The Czechoslovaks in '68
             | and the Hungarians in '56 had done exactly that. Yes, that
             | would have probably meant a couple of decades of a Russian-
             | backed puppet regime in Kyiv but the future would have been
             | open for anything. As things stand right now Ukraine has
             | almost no access to the Black Sea anymore, about 7 million
             | people have left their homes, not to mention the tens of
             | thousands of civilians dead in this war.
        
             | kashkhan wrote:
             | Getting more tanks ain't it. More war also not it.
             | 
             | Russian empire needs to be dismantled. But unlikely UKR
             | waging war on russia will do it.
        
               | brokencode wrote:
               | So basically you have put no thought into this except
               | that you don't like war.
               | 
               | I think most people will agree with you that war is bad.
               | But if you get attacked, then all you can do is either
               | give up or defend yourself.
               | 
               | Afghanistan chose to give up to the Taliban, and now
               | their rights are being taken away.
               | 
               | Ukraine chose to defend themselves, and the jury is still
               | out on whether they'll be successful and what the cost
               | will be.
               | 
               | But there is no third option where you simply will war
               | out of existence.
               | 
               | Diplomacy works with certain enemies, and that will
               | hopefully be the outcome in Ukraine too, but that too
               | will come with a heavy price, such as giving up major
               | amounts of territory.
        
               | paganel wrote:
               | The Talibans are the Afghanistan, or a bit part of it.
        
               | kashkhan wrote:
               | "Afghanistan" is a western colonial construct made up of
               | many groups. Most states are western colonial constructs.
               | We might need to move past that.
        
               | kashkhan wrote:
               | Plenty of people have put thought into what to do to end
               | war. You don't need original thoughts from me.
               | 
               | The natural corollary of someone attacking you is not to
               | get into an arms race.
               | 
               | Afghanistan didn't choose Taliban. Pakistan and Saudi
               | chose Taliban and armed them enough to take over. War
               | obviously works.
               | 
               | What's going to happen in UKR is that the warlike will
               | win and then naturally turn their guns towards the
               | locals. Exactly like in Afghanistan. You can arm them as
               | much as you like, but they will not turn into gandhis
               | with an excess of guns.
               | 
               | My point is not that war doesn't work. My point is that
               | we should all be fighting against war.
        
               | pasabagi wrote:
               | In the specific case of Ukraine, a people's war of
               | national liberation is a pretty classic form of nation
               | building. That's how a lot of nations came about. The
               | Taliban are a particularly bad analogy, because they
               | represent regionalist resistance against central
               | government in Afghanistan. Countries like Italy, the USA,
               | or Vietnam were formed in this manner.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | > My point is that we should all be fighting against war.
               | 
               | By what, asking nicely?
        
               | kashkhan wrote:
               | Yes. Be very persuasive. But restrict yourself to
               | persuasion.
               | 
               | The way is for the antiwar people to be more successful
               | than warriors and turn war into the losers' choice.
               | 
               | I refuse to arm myself, refuse to serve in militaries and
               | refuse to support war as much as i am able. If antiwar
               | people are successful, war will evolve out.
        
               | brokencode wrote:
               | Do you think Ukraine can persuade Putin to call off the
               | invasion? If they didn't defend themselves, they'd be a
               | Russian province or puppet state today.
               | 
               | That's always the unfortunate downside of relying on only
               | persuasion. Some people will just take what they want if
               | you don't force them to stop.
               | 
               | Just read about how well persuasion (aka "appeasement")
               | worked in the buildup to WW2. Spoiler: it didn't.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | > the warlike will win and then naturally turn their guns
               | towards the locals
               | 
               | Whether they do that as a democratic government, a
               | dictatorship, a paragovernamental entity, or a set of
               | mobs makes all the difference in the world.
        
               | kashkhan wrote:
               | Anyone pointing a gun at me is not my friend. Anyone that
               | chooses a gun to get their way is not my friend.
               | 
               | I don't trust people with guns. They are the same because
               | they all choose violence to get their way.
               | 
               | "Democratic" gun holders point more guns at me today than
               | mobs.
        
           | dageshi wrote:
           | You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in
           | you.
        
             | pizzachan wrote:
             | That's what I tell people about politics.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | > I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world
           | without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world,
           | because they'd never expect it.
           | 
           | As long as there are conflicting desires, there will be
           | conflict, and it can break out into war.
           | 
           | However, it's possible that war can be reduced, but it may
           | require things we're not quite ready for, such as the end of
           | Westphalian states.
        
         | Jistern wrote:
         | Your comment is extremely misleading.
         | 
         | Modern militaries are rapidly transforming into what was
         | science fiction, say, 50 years ago: almost exclusively remote-
         | controlled robots and primarily (or even exclusively)
         | autonomous robots.
         | 
         | If you call small, unmanned, armored vehicles "tanks" you are
         | misleading people.
         | 
         | In modern militaries, whether it be surface ships, submarines,
         | airplanes, tanks, etc.... within another few decades, people
         | almost certainly won't be inside of them. People will control
         | them remotely and/or algorithms/artificial intelligence will
         | control them.
         | 
         | What we are seeing in Ukraine is Russia and NATO disposing
         | obsolete military weapons in a disgusting farce of a war.
         | Washington and Moscow should have divided up Ukraine like they
         | did much of Europe in the waning days of World War II.
         | 
         | There was no need for a single bullet to be fired, let alone
         | mortars and missiles. Washington antagonized Moscow
         | ceaselessly. Eventually, Moscow took the bait. It's tragedy
         | that could have, and should have been avoided.
         | 
         | Nonetheless, just because these days you see men in tanks
         | fighting in Ukraine on your phone or laptop, don't think that
         | "Tanks are still relevant in modern warfare!" They aren't.
         | Tanks, by which I mean large vehicles with people inside of
         | them, are obsolete in modern warfare.
         | 
         | People who claim tanks are still viable in modern warfare are
         | either fools, liars, or manipulative purveyors of falsehoods
         | who enjoy twisting words by referring to small, unmanned robots
         | as "tanks."
         | 
         | The Economist.com is yet another legacy media property that
         | regularly engages in obvious yellow journalism in a doomed
         | struggle to remain profitable. Articles with headlines like,
         | "Does the Tank Have a Future?" are clickbait.
         | 
         | I didn't take the bait; I didn't read the article. Why should I
         | have? A better article would have been, "Does Economist.com
         | Have a Future?"
        
           | jeffdn wrote:
           | This is a complete misunderstanding of warfare. Drones cannot
           | take and hold ground. Without infantry, an external power
           | cannot exert influence over an area. Sure, they can wantonly
           | kill civilians, but that doesn't mean they are in charge.
           | Until and unless autonomous drones with general artificial
           | intelligence can be mass-produced and deployed on the scale
           | of infantry brigades, massed infantry will be required. Even
           | then, an EMP could disable those drones in one fell swoop.
           | 
           | They are absolutely not disposing of obsolete weapons -- and
           | the West has no desire to "carve up Ukraine". How did
           | Washington antagonize Moscow? NATO is a voluntary defensive
           | pact. The Eastern European countries, who all have a long
           | history of being oppressed and occupied by Russian (and
           | Soviet) governments, asked to join NATO. What good would it
           | do for the West to start a war? What is there to gain from
           | brinksmanship when the stakes are a strategic nuclear
           | exchange?
           | 
           | The idea that this war is at all something provoked by the
           | West, or in any way defensive on Russia's part, is pure
           | Russian propaganda. The Putin regime fears the
           | democratization of its neighbors resulting in its own people
           | losing confidence in its ability to lead the country. This
           | phase of the war is merely an extension of Russia's desire to
           | quash any semblance of Ukrainian agency -- this war started
           | in 2014, after the last vestige of Russia's control over
           | Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, fled the country.
           | 
           | Finally, your view actively denies the Ukrainian people their
           | agency. If they did not find this war worthwhile, if they did
           | not think Ukraine as an idea was worth defending, why are
           | they dying in their tens of thousands to defend it?
        
             | YarickR2 wrote:
        
               | jeffdn wrote:
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | Is there a good rundown of every piece of weaponry and its
         | corresponding utility and strategy somewhere?
         | 
         | I'd love to update or correct my understanding of tanks,
         | artillery, HIMARS, aircraft carriers, cruisers, littoral
         | combat, submarine classes, F-22, F-35, AWACS, etc.
        
           | themadturk wrote:
           | One place for a quick look at different types of armor and
           | their uses, is the recent post at the A Collection of
           | Unmitigated Pedantry blog:
           | 
           | https://acoup.blog/2022/05/06/collections-when-is-a-tank-
           | not...
        
           | ranger207 wrote:
           | Not a single source, but old.reddit.com/r/warCollege is
           | fantastic. It's not as strict as /r/askHistorians (for better
           | or for worse) but there are lots of active military officers
           | on there who know their stuff
        
           | pizzachan wrote:
           | I used to get a copy of Janes Defense Weekly at work. It was
           | always a good read when I was a young kid on the hill. They
           | even used to put out a buyers guide for IFVs/LAVs. If you
           | want to cut through the noise for good military analysis you
           | usually have to drop some decent dough.
        
           | dragontamer wrote:
           | Video games.
           | 
           | https://www.matrixgames.com/game/armored-brigade
           | 
           | Armored Brigade is probably a good start. 4 minutes for
           | artillery to aim, 1 to 2 minutes for shells to actually
           | arrive, 10 minutes for air-support to fly in.
           | 
           | 1 to 2 minutes to deliver commands to any particular squad
           | (depending on how good their radio contact is).
           | 
           | Roughly realistic levels of arms, armor and penetration.
           | Angle of shots and type of weapon (kinetic energy, such as
           | APFSDS, or Chemical energy, such as M47 Dragon or HEAT
           | rounds) are factored in.
           | 
           | Guided missiles, top-down missiles, fire-and-forget missiles.
           | Etc. etc. Its not every weapon, but its a solid set of
           | important weapons that probably cover a wide variety of
           | possible combat situations.
           | 
           | Line-of-sight is simulated on an incredible degree: height
           | maps matter, but so do trees (partially obscured), houses,
           | and smoke grenades even. Line of sight is best at 12noon.
           | Line of sight is worst at night, unless your squads are
           | equipped with thermal vision. Weather (foggy conditions
           | especially) can change things dramatically.
           | 
           | -------
           | 
           | The simulated soldiers/tanks aren't the best, but they're
           | smart enough to run away during artillery barrages and hunker
           | down. They'll seek cover on their own (and if you tell them a
           | direction to defend against, they'll look for cover on their
           | own too against that direction). Tank commanders "button up"
           | during enemy fire (reducing their vision but likely saving
           | the commander's life). Covering fire is therefore effective.
           | 
           | ------
           | 
           | The AI is okay. The AI runs into traps and ambushes, and
           | never really figures them out. Still, good enough to get you
           | the basics of strategy of each of these weapons.
           | 
           | Seeing the 3000m range of a tank vs the 150m range of a M72
           | LAW really demonstrates the bravery that those unguided anti-
           | tank bazooka squads have.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | There are some very interesting developments in this field:
             | 
             | https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1523791050313433088
        
           | MezzoDelCammin wrote:
           | Single place? Probably no. But You can go branch by branch.
           | 
           | For armor, Chieftain is probably as good as it gets in
           | English when it comes to universality (he's both a historian
           | and an active service Lt.Col. in the US NG).
           | 
           | For further armor sources, I'd highly recommend the YT
           | channel of Tank Museum Bovington:
           | https://www.youtube.com/user/TheTankMuseum
           | 
           | The chap whose video Chieftain replies to ("Perun") is worth
           | following in his own right for the modern take on Russian /
           | Ukraine war. He's more of an economist / logistician, but
           | well worth watching:
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
           | 
           | From Perun You'll often hear the name "Michael Kofman". He
           | doesn't get one single place where you could find all of his
           | stuff, but google him and go through the articles / videos he
           | is in. He's often used as a source for quite a lot of
           | commentary about Russian Army in the past 20 years or so.
           | https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/
           | 
           | When it comes to general doctrine, it's sometimes useful to
           | know the compositions of forces. This is a good starting
           | point: https://www.youtube.com/c/BattleOrder
           | 
           | When it comes to modern navy, Jive Turkey (now called
           | "SubBrief") is probably a cool starting point. Mainly
           | submarines (he's an ex US Navy 688 sonar operator), but :
           | https://www.youtube.com/c/SubBrief
        
             | ansible wrote:
             | Upvote for Perun. He very recently did a video on the
             | apparent infantry shortage that the Russian forces seem to
             | be facing:
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs
             | 
             | The short, short, short version is that the Russian BTGs
             | (battalion tactical groups) and undermanned in general, and
             | the conscripts are supposed to be filling most of the
             | infantry slots. Theoretically, because this isn't a
             | declared war, the conscripts aren't supposed to be
             | fighting, and weren't sent to the "special military
             | operation".
             | 
             | I enjoyed watching all the Ukraine war videos on that
             | channel.
        
           | nonameiguess wrote:
           | The US Army keeps a public repository of all field manuals
           | approved for general release here:
           | https://armypubs.army.mil/ProductMaps/PubForm/FM.aspx
           | 
           | I think the closest to what you're looking for is FM 3-96 the
           | Brigade Combat Team (https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/
           | DR_a/ARN31505-FM_3-9...). The is the smallest unit that
           | includes effectively everything the Army can bring to bear,
           | including infantry, armor, artillery, and rotary aviation.
           | There might still be some fairly specialized intelligence,
           | surveillance, and recon assets only available to divisions,
           | but most of what the Army can deploy for fighting purposes
           | exists in the BCTs at this point. I imagine other branches of
           | service have their equivalents in terms of doctrine on how to
           | employ submarines and fighter jets, but I only ever served in
           | the Army and am most familiar with their tactics and
           | doctrine.
        
         | ufmace wrote:
         | Yup. The key point is, a weapon system becomes obsolete when
         | something else does its job better, not when it becomes more
         | vulnerable. When something valuable becomes more vulnerable,
         | you protect it better. When it becomes less valuable because
         | something else does the job better, then you get rid of it.
         | 
         | As of right now, nothing does a ground offensive like a few
         | dozen tanks advancing at top speed with appropriate support.
         | They'll blast anything in their path and charge right through
         | all but the toughest and most concentrated defenses. As long as
         | you can see those really concentrated defenses in advance and
         | go around, they're pretty tough to stop.
        
         | objektif wrote:
         | This is like asking Michael Saylor if Bitcoin is still a good
         | investment.
        
       | bpodgursky wrote:
       | A lot of people are asking whether tanks are survivable anymore,
       | but nobody is asking whether unarmored infantry are any more
       | survivable in the era of small-drone warfare. It's all relative.
        
         | dragontamer wrote:
         | Small drone warfare?
         | 
         | The Ukraine / Russian conflict has degenerated into trench
         | warfare with thousands of 155mm / 152mm artillery being shot
         | into each other's positions per day.
         | 
         | These are the kinds of conditions where tanks excel. Humans who
         | try to walk at 3km/hr get blown up by shrapnel, even 100m away
         | is "close enough" to cause a significant injury and take a
         | human out of a fight.
         | 
         | Tanks? They pretty much ignore everything except a direct hit
         | (within 2m) of the target. All that shrapnel just bounces off
         | the tank. We've gone full circle back to WW1 trench/artillery
         | warfare, where tanks were invented to break through the
         | stalemate.
         | 
         | Other vehicles (even armored cars) don't have thick enough
         | armor to survive the shrapnel reliably. APCs, IFVs, Humvees
         | still get shredded by artillery and air-burst munitions.
         | 
         | -------
         | 
         | How do you beat artillery? You travel at 50km/hr, so you're
         | hard to aim (a 20km shot takes 1.5 minutes to land. Easy to
         | kill a human who can only travel a hundred meters in that
         | timeframe, especially since its +/- 100m target size since the
         | shrapnel blast is so huge).
         | 
         | Tanks / vehicles on the other hand, move too fast to be
         | targeted by dumb artillery. Smart artillery still kills you,
         | but its relatively rare on the battlefield (due to the high
         | costs of computer parts needed to make a smart shell). The vast
         | majority of these holes are dumb artillery.
         | 
         | ---------
         | 
         | https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/...
         | 
         | This isn't the landscape of "drone warfare". This is WW1 style
         | dumb-artillery wars.
        
           | the_af wrote:
           | In support of your statement, I'm impressed that Russian
           | doctrine seems to rely so much on good ol' trusty massive
           | artillery, of the dumb kind.
           | 
           | I guess, if it works...
        
             | int_19h wrote:
             | Said massive artillery fire is directed from the drones.
             | You hear a lot about Ukrainian Bayraktars, but the most
             | mass-deployed combat drone in Ukraine right now is actually
             | Mavic 2 & 3 - on both sides! In fact, it got to the point
             | where there's a shortage of them in Russia because DJI
             | stopped importing them, but units fighting in Ukraine
             | constantly demand and get more via crowdfunding.
             | 
             | (For the curious, here's a blog post from the Donbas
             | separatist side that talks about drones and their combat
             | use and maintenance, among other things:
             | https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2140772.html)
             | 
             | However, Ukrainians have learned to embrace the drones in
             | 2014-15 already, and have had a lot more experience with
             | them since. Russia is still learning that lesson in the
             | field.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | BTW, the same blogger also wrote a post recently that
               | specifically discusses the differences in how Russian and
               | Ukrainian forces employ their artillery. Also worth a
               | read:
               | 
               | https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2148946.html
               | 
               | (I would generally recommend this entire blog for those
               | curious about the tactics and the logistics of the
               | conflict, because it's one of those rare cases when a guy
               | who is directly involved in the war, and has a long-
               | standing reputation as one of the prominent hawks, is
               | consistently writing posts that are critical of _his own
               | side_ - which criticism is far more likely to be accurate
               | than propaganda from the other side.)
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | Puts the whole Seoul situation in a new light - there's
             | something about just massive amounts of shells being thrown
             | that's hard to deal with.
             | 
             | And dumb is cheap. Cheap can be king, especially if you can
             | keep making them. The US had the same thing in WWII, the
             | Panzer tanks were better than the Shermans in nearly every
             | way - except cost and repairability.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | Yes. This is also a lesson the Red Army learned in WWII,
               | and why not continue with it? Simple systems that can be
               | mass produced are better than complex, harder to repair
               | ones.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | The complex, hard to repair ones are great if:
               | 
               | 1. You're selling them.
               | 
               | 2. You have absolute complete superiority and are trying
               | to minimize _your_ casualties
               | 
               | There's a country that fits those parameters very well.
        
             | whimsicalism wrote:
             | Both Russian and Ukrainian, also grad rockets. They're
             | pretty much fighting each other with the same weapons.
        
             | dragontamer wrote:
             | Whenever people talked about "suicide drones", I felt like
             | they haven't studied the history of warfare.
             | 
             | A surprising number of conflicts: WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam,
             | degenerated into artillery slugfests. You can't get much
             | cheaper, faster, or more effective than guns shooting dumb
             | explosives 20km away.
             | 
             | Only when the opponents were stupidly overmatched by US Air
             | Superiority (Afghanistan / Iraq) did things change. But
             | even with Air Superiority over say, Vietnam, USA still
             | degenerated into an artillery slugfest.
             | 
             | -------
             | 
             | Its hard to beat 100lb shrapnel bombs delivered 20km away.
             | Logistics wise, trucks carrying shells is just far cheaper
             | than any other delivery mechanism. This fact has been true
             | since WW1, and no technology has ever really changed the
             | calculus. (Adding li-ion batteries, cameras, remote-control
             | and other features so that you can turn the delivery
             | mechanism into a drone is just unnecessary chips in most
             | cases)
        
               | thraway11 wrote:
               | > But even with Air Superiority over say, Vietnam, USA
               | still degenerated into an artillery slugfest.
               | 
               | I just finished James Holland's Normandy '44 and I'd say,
               | according to his book, that sentence pretty accurately
               | describes pretty much all of the WW2 Normandy campaign as
               | well.
        
           | bpodgursky wrote:
           | I simplified the argument for brevity, but drones are
           | critical to the artillery war right now because of spotting
           | and fire-correction.
           | 
           | Artillery is far more lethal in 2022 than it was in 1945
           | because you can spot and kill individual infantry units from
           | ten miles away.
        
             | mtnGoat wrote:
             | ten? i think its closer to 30 miles.
             | 
             | If memory serves me correctly, my brother said the cannon
             | he captained was capable of incredible accuracy at 30
             | miles.
        
             | dragontamer wrote:
             | That's just drones serving the role of forward-observer
             | though.
             | 
             | The underlying tactic of someone, or something, out in the
             | field, issuing radio messages back to home-base to
             | coordinate artillery has been around since WW2, maybe
             | earlier. Drones represent an evolution to the forward-
             | observer paradigm, not a revolution.
             | 
             | In WW2, those were paratroopers, commandos, or other scouts
             | who were performing those forward-observer duties while
             | hiding inside of a treeline.
             | 
             | Sure, they were Morse code messages over a radio powered by
             | a 20lb lead-acid battery pack with terrible encryption, but
             | the fundamental tactic hasn't changed (especially because
             | said forward-observer team would rarely be spotted... since
             | they aren't firing their guns they're really hard to find)
        
               | bpodgursky wrote:
               | I think there's a meaningful difference here, and it's
               | very incorrect to consider it an incremental change.
               | 
               | An infantry squad dug into foxholes in some forest in
               | WWII was really quite safe against artillery. A forward
               | observer can maybe spot a tank or artillery battery
               | (sometimes). A drone can scan an entire battlefield and
               | identify infantry 10 miles behind a line of trenches, and
               | coordinated artillery strikes can wipe them out.
               | 
               | That's hugely difference! It vastly changes the lethality
               | per unit of artillery, and the relative risk for infantry
               | units who aren't in obviously-fortified positions.
        
         | metabagel wrote:
         | Infantry can more effectively hide, disperse, and bring down
         | aerial drones.
        
           | bpodgursky wrote:
           | This is very terrain-dependent.
           | 
           | It worked around Kyiv because it's forested and hilly, it
           | works in cities with large soviet apartment blocks, but isn't
           | working well at all in flat Donbas farmland.
           | 
           | It's also a 100% defensive strategy. Unsupported infantry
           | have almost no ability to retake dug-in positions.
        
         | dilyevsky wrote:
         | The truth is they never were. I think i heard somewhere that
         | avg battlefield lifetime of a tank in ww2 was less than 20
         | minutes
        
         | 1123581321 wrote:
         | A lot of money is being invested in anti-drone tech.
        
       | syntaxfree wrote:
       | I expected this to be about Shark Tank somehow.
        
       | pclark wrote:
       | It seems like the future of warfare is longe range (eg: firing
       | missiles at tanks from across the horizon) or hyper short range
       | (eg: troops clearing cities block by block) -- anything else
       | seems like it'll get wrecked by either the precision of long
       | range or the precision of short range stuff.
       | 
       | A tank isn't hyper mobile, isn't hyper accurate and isn't hyper
       | long range. I don't get it's role -- especially when it costs
       | tens of millions and can be destroyed with either a $5k anti-
       | armor launcher or from a missile fired across the horizon.
        
         | jopython wrote:
         | Long range missiles are expensive. ATGMs require you to be
         | closer (2 miles or less) to the target which means the
         | operating crews are vulnerable to the same tanks and other
         | mortar fire which they are trying to kill.
         | 
         | I think long range artillery (> 50kms) is the solution.
        
           | int_19h wrote:
           | There's also drones to consider.
        
         | Tsiklon wrote:
         | A tank is certainly more useful in the middle distance than at
         | extreme range, or in tight spaces, there's better choices of
         | tool for those jobs guided artillery/rockets at distance and
         | heavy auto-cannon clad infantry fighting vehicles like in the
         | city. But not all warfare exists in either of those ranges.
         | 
         | Tanks are great at assaulting enemy hard points, taking fire
         | away from supporting infantry who can move in and cleanup the
         | position after the tank has suppressed it or broken it open.
         | It's a heavy weapon of mobility and manoeuvre on the field.
         | 
         | A tank's role is that of heavy cavalry, designed to intimidate
         | and break defensive lines in a charge across contested
         | territory and to provide immediate direct fire on a target in
         | support of advancing infantry. As the modern rifleman company
         | is the descendant of line infantry of old, the tank is the
         | descendant of the Cuirassier.
        
       | trhway wrote:
       | Russian tanks aren't a representative of a modern tank as among
       | other things they have crappy active defense - it is all about
       | electronics. Israel's is a good one, and their tanks survive
       | multiple shots by actively killing incoming RPG warheads and the
       | likes.
       | 
       | Also Russian tanks are on the light side as they can't manage a
       | powerful enough engine required, ie gas turbine of 1500hp+. The
       | best they have so far managed is 1000hp diesel on may be 200
       | tanks by now, the rest is old one 800hp. Thus their tanks have
       | armor lighter and of older type than say Abrams.
       | 
       | And there is huge area of discussion about integration of all
       | weapons on the battlefield - without such integration any weapon
       | loses its efficiency tremendously - and Russian military is very
       | bad at integration, and tanks in isolation are much weaker target
       | as opponent much easily finds the window opportunity.
        
         | int_19h wrote:
         | Have Israeli tanks ever faced Javelins tho?
        
           | aerostable_slug wrote:
           | They have faced formidable ATGMs including Kornet E, and have
           | suffered losses. Time will tell how effective their hard-kill
           | countermeasures will prove to be.
        
           | cturner wrote:
           | Not a direct answer, but an advantage of Israeli armour is
           | that they only need to deploy locally. This means less
           | penalty for armour than US systems which are designed to be
           | carried in air transports for foreign deployment, or Russian
           | units designed around train transport. The Israeli Namer IFV
           | weighs more than twice as much as a Bradley IFV, and can
           | carry more troops.
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | Does infantry have a future, given what WWI taught us about their
       | vulnerability to artillery and machine guns? Do (naval) ships
       | have a future, given what WWII taught us about their
       | vulnerability to torpedoes? Do air defenses or air forces have a
       | future, given what happened in Mole Cricket 19 (
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mole_Cricket_19 )? Do...
       | 
       | Zzz.
        
       | FinanceAnon wrote:
       | Tanks Considered Harmful?
        
       | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
       | The USMC got rid of their tanks. The closest thing to a tank they
       | still have is a Light Armored Vehicle.
        
         | mellavora wrote:
         | And some people in the USMC hotly debate if this was a good
         | idea or not
        
         | ranger207 wrote:
         | The USMC decided it's going to fight a different kind of fight,
         | being dropped off on small Pacific islands with antiship
         | missiles and artillery to produce a set of distributed antiship
         | bunkers. Their divestment of the tank is not because they
         | thought the tank is obsolete, but because the tank doesn't fit
         | with the fight they're planning for. Most armies, including the
         | US's, still plan to have fights where tanks make sense. Of
         | course the question of whether or not those kinds of fights are
         | likely to happen is a valid question, but is orthogonal to the
         | question of whether or not drones and ATGMs make tanks obsolete
        
         | gherkinnn wrote:
         | They got rid of their tanks because the Army will provide them.
         | It says so in the 2030 doctrine document.
         | 
         | How is that so hard to understand?
        
       | cestith wrote:
       | This is an excellent question that's asked every five to ten
       | years since 1916 and so far always ends up answered "yes".
        
       | prometheus76 wrote:
       | Judging by the current situation, it seems that there are more
       | resources for building tanks than there are for building anti-
       | tank weapons. Once the anti-tank weapon stocks have been
       | depleted, tanks still play a devastating role in warfare.
       | 
       | EDIT: I'm just relaying what I read in several articles about the
       | difficulties in making anti-tank weapons because they rely on
       | rare-earth minerals and because they rely on silicon chips, which
       | are in short supply worldwide. Here's one of the articles I read:
       | https://news.clearancejobs.com/2022/04/26/managing-the-dod-s...
        
         | 323 wrote:
         | Tanks also rely on silicon chips. Many more than in an anti-
         | tank weapon.
        
         | horsawlarway wrote:
         | I don't understand this comment.
         | 
         | The anti-tank weaponry is an order of magnitude less expensive
         | than the tank (some is several orders).
         | 
         | The M1A2 Abrams has a unit cost of around 10 million USD
         | (numbers from 2016, so likely higher now).
         | 
         | The drones currently destroying tanks in Ukraine (Bayraktar
         | TB2) had a unit price of around 5 million, although some
         | estimates are as low as 1-2 million per unit delivered to
         | Ukraine at this point (production has ramped up).
         | 
         | notably - the whole drone isn't consumed when a tank is
         | destroyed, so I really suspect we're going to see a _drastic_
         | ramp up in drone warfare.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | Tanks can also destroy more stuff than they cost.
        
           | prometheus76 wrote:
           | It's the scarcity of the parts, not the overall cost.
           | Javelins require rare-earth minerals (which largely come from
           | Russia) and rare silicon chips that are in short supply
           | worldwide. I edited my original post to include a link to an
           | article about the difficulties in replacing the diminishing
           | stock of anti-tank weapons.
        
             | pclark wrote:
             | Modern tanks also use minerals and chips, they're basically
             | armoured computers. They also, obviously, take a huge
             | amount of resources to produce, transport and train to use.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | That's the expensive drones. But there are plenty of kills
           | attributed to octocopters dropping modified anti-tank
           | grenades.
        
         | dsr_ wrote:
         | A tank is 15-75 tons of armor, engine, chassis and gun. It
         | costs millions of dollars per tank.
         | 
         | An antitank weapon is 6-120 lbs of propulsion, controller and
         | warhead. It costs between a thousand and tens of thousands of
         | dollars per weapon.
         | 
         | Economics refutes you.
        
           | prometheus76 wrote:
           | I'm not speaking about cost. I'm talking about the scarcity
           | of the parts and the manufacturing capability required to
           | make anti-tank weapons.
           | 
           | https://news.clearancejobs.com/2022/04/26/managing-the-
           | dod-s...
        
           | lapsed_pacifist wrote:
           | A soldier is tens of thousands of dollars of training and
           | gear. A bullet costs pennies. Thus soldiers have no place on
           | the battlefield?
           | 
           | I think you should watch Chieftains video and read some
           | military theory. Simply being vulnerable to less expensive
           | weapon systems does not make a unit/vehicle/soldier useless
           | or obsolete.
        
             | horsawlarway wrote:
             | Personally - I agree. I don't yet think we're at the point
             | where tanks are obsolete.
             | 
             | That said... I think the niche the tank occupies right now
             | is getting a LOT smaller.
             | 
             | Infantry screening is no longer enough. It's not just
             | manpads and other anti-tank weaponry coming in from close
             | quarters... it's gps guided missiles dropping on the tank
             | from drones miles above.
             | 
             | We're definitely still going to see ground vehicles play an
             | important part in combat, but I strongly suspect it's going
             | to move back towards favoring nimble vehicles with specific
             | utility. Not the current style of armored tanks.
        
             | dsr_ wrote:
             | Indeed, if you value a soldier's life the same as a human's
             | life, you really don't want them on the battlefield any
             | more than absolutely necessary to defend against the
             | invaders.
             | 
             | Spears and catapults and bows make your soldiers effective
             | dozens of yards away from the enemy.
             | 
             | Rifles get your soldiers to a hundred, sometimes two
             | hundred yards away.
             | 
             | Artillery and drones make your soldiers effective up to a
             | few miles away.
             | 
             | The further away you can keep your soldiers while
             | accomplishing your goals, the better.
        
         | metabagel wrote:
         | You could say it the other way around - once the tank stocks
         | are depleted, anti-tank weapons can still play a devastating
         | role (against other armored or unarmored vehicles).
        
           | prometheus76 wrote:
           | You could say it the other way around, but the complexity of
           | the electronics in the anti-tank weapons have proven to be
           | difficult to produce in large quantities because of the chip
           | shortage, but also because of the high level of experience
           | and knowledge required to continue to make them. Tanks are
           | much less reliant on complex electronics and manufacturing
           | capability in order to be effective on the battlefield.
           | 
           | The US Defense Dept. has said it will take at least ten years
           | to rebuild the stock of anti-tank weapons that have been used
           | in Ukraine in the last five months.
        
             | mattnewton wrote:
             | How many years will it take to replace the 700 or so tanks
             | lost in Ukraine? Russia is estimated to have 3,000 or so
             | tanks currently operating, they are closing in on losing
             | 1/4th their number. It's unclear how many of their roughly
             | 10k in storage are still working and whether making new
             | tanks or repairing those will have the same chip shortage
             | problems.
        
               | MrRiddle wrote:
               | There is absolutely no chance Russia lost 700 tanks.
               | Ukrainian sources are pure garbage.
        
               | dilyevsky wrote:
               | The ones in storage are like t-62s so no chips required
               | =)
        
             | metabagel wrote:
             | Yeah, no. This defies credulity. Tanks are complex systems
             | too, with very high cost and long lead times. Javelin
             | production is currently 2,100 per year and ramping up. I
             | don't know what NLAW production is, but some 24,000 have
             | supposedly been produced in the lifetime of the weapon.
             | Russia started the war with about 3,000 tanks.
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | > The US Defense Dept. has said it will take at least ten
             | years to rebuild the stock of anti-tank weapons that have
             | been used in Ukraine in the last five months.
             | 
             | Reponding to this and some of your other comments
             | elsewhere... These anti-tank weapons may be the best anti-
             | tank weapons, but they're not the only ones. If all of
             | these are used, there are plenty of other ways to destroy
             | tanks, so it's important, but not required to have a large
             | stock of them.
             | 
             | You could probably increase the rate of manufacture of
             | these, but there's also value in having ten continuous
             | years of manufacturing instead of long time periods between
             | batches.
             | 
             | I may be overly cynical, but in some ways, this war seems
             | like a warehouse clearance event. It seems like everyone is
             | finding their old stockpiles of Soviet era equipment and
             | sending it to Ukraine to be used and/or destroyed. And
             | presumably afterwards, it'll be time for the military
             | industrial complexes to turn back on and build new
             | stockpiles. Add in a few field demos of new equipment too.
        
             | the_af wrote:
             | > _Tanks are much less reliant on complex electronics and
             | manufacturing capability in order to be effective on the
             | battlefield._
             | 
             | I don't disagree with your overall comment, but note the
             | modern main battle tank is a really complex beast, both in
             | sensors, gun control, and also defensive systems. Even
             | Russian tanks are very complex (their current high losses
             | notwithstanding), but Western tanks are incredibly complex.
             | They are not meant to sustain heavy losses, they are
             | designed to _survive_.
             | 
             | If modern weapons strongly reduce the survivability of
             | tanks, at least the future of _Western_ tanks may be in
             | question.
        
             | secondcoming wrote:
             | Have you watched any of the Ukraine footage? Tanks are
             | being blown up from bombs dropped from COTS drones. Longer
             | range semi-autonomous drones seem to be the future.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | I agree tanks seem to be very vulnerable in the current
               | Ukraine war.
               | 
               | That said, drones cannot replace tanks. Maybe something
               | else will, but drones cannot make breakthrough advances,
               | nor accompany and shield advancing infantry. Drones may
               | be cheap tank killers, but I don't think they can replace
               | tanks.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | Not every weapon system has a direct and obvious
               | replacement when it becomes obsolete - the nature of the
               | combat itself changes around what's viable given the
               | tech.
        
               | namelessoracle wrote:
               | How well do long range drones work if the other side puts
               | up a serious blockages of radio waves and decides that
               | "no you dont get satellites anymore"?
        
               | lapsed_pacifist wrote:
               | Much of this has to do with Russian tank doctrine and the
               | lack of sufficient infantry to provide mutual support to
               | armor.
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | I think the shortage is mostly due to a lack of a desire to
             | make big changes to resolve the issue.
             | 
             | If a meeting was called of 10 big tech/manufacturing
             | companies and they were each told they'd be hansomely
             | rewarded if they managed to make large volumes of a missile
             | design, and that all IP/Patent laws would be suspended for
             | the purpose, I guarantee you that there would be massive
             | stockpiles within the month.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | We have no idea what a major economy like the current US
               | would look like if it went on a real war footing.
               | According to this [34] we spent 40% of GDP on WWII
               | (equivalent of $5 trillion today) - that would be almost
               | $10 trillion _a year_ now if we did the equivalent. That
               | 's absolutely _insane_ numbers, and many, many things
               | would change, and quite quickly.
               | 
               | [34] https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-
               | economy/2020/february/war-...
        
             | hermitdev wrote:
             | When was the last time the US even produced a new tank
             | hull? Pretty sure they haven't produced a new Abrams hull
             | since the 80s (yes, they've been rebuilt and upgraded a few
             | times, but no new hulls to my knowledge). I'm not even
             | talking about a new design, I'm talking about production of
             | an existing design.
        
             | brokencode wrote:
             | That's probably because anti-tank weapons aren't all that
             | important for the US military. The US military has guided
             | missiles from planes and ships that serve this role much
             | more effectively.
             | 
             | If we actually needed infantry anti-tank weapons, I don't
             | think we have any problem building them in huge quantities.
        
       | aerostable_slug wrote:
       | Tanks used correctly and in sufficient mass produces something
       | called the _Shock Effect of Armor_. Smart munitions are getting
       | more and more effective, but it 's really hard to calmly lob
       | missiles at a charging unit of tanks supported by artillery,
       | infantry, CAS, etc.
       | 
       | " _Principle: armor in strength produces decisive shock effect_
       | 
       | The psychological shock effect that comes to troops on the
       | receiving end of a massed armored assault is terrific. This
       | effect radiates from the point of attack in concentric semi-
       | circles, as do the waves from a stone dropped in the water near
       | the edge of a millpond. If the attack is in strength, these
       | shockwaves reach to the enemy division, corps and army
       | headquarters. Shock effect gives armor part of its protection and
       | hastens the disintegration of the enemy force attacked. The shock
       | effect of the mass employment of armor varies as the square or
       | cube of the number of tanks used. Attacking with armored strength
       | too small to produce decisive shock effect often results in great
       | losses and inconclusive results."
       | 
       | https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/Historical...
       | 
       | Simply put, they are pants-soiling terrifying spectacles of death
       | and they prove overwhelming. Once significant momentum of a well-
       | executed armored attack has been gained, they are difficult to
       | slow or stop. Drone swarms may make this tactic obsolete, but
       | we're not there yet.
        
         | throwaway1492 wrote:
         | Former US Army 19k here. Tanks are expensive to build,
         | expensive to maintain, expensive to operate, hard to transport
         | and require certain levels of infrastructure to operate in
         | theater (bridges to support their weight). With current threats
         | they are bound to become even heavier (and require more fuel).
         | 
         | While I am all for seeing the rise of Bolo's, and I love shock
         | effect as much as the next enthusiast, the ability of a $500
         | drone with the equivalent of a RKG-3 grenade to take one out is
         | really the only relevant part of the question. Tanks are dead.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RKG-3_anti-tank_grenade
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolo_universe
         | 
         | Edit to add; "expensive to operate" was a bit of an
         | understatement, the logistical support required for a tank
         | company is tremendous, totally preposperous; 1000s of gallons
         | of fuel a day, 3 types of ammo, support equipment and
         | personnel.
        
           | mymythisisthis wrote:
           | What about drone tanks?
        
           | aerostable_slug wrote:
           | I don't think the commodity drone approach is going to work
           | very well against a competently-run military with electronic
           | warfare capabilities the Russians seem not to be employing.
           | 
           | To defeat capable EW, you'd need self-directed swarms of
           | drones, and we don't have those yet (especially not at Best
           | Buy). I agree that remotely-piloted commodity drones would
           | likely make a terrible mess of something like an African army
           | with T-55s and not much else, and of course today's Russia (I
           | never thought I'd write that sentence).
           | 
           | I concur on the cost of armor, but it comes with significant
           | benefits, hence the investment we've made in logistics to
           | support them. It's only preposterous when the situation makes
           | it so, like a highly mobile island hopping campaign. They
           | worked pretty well in Iraq. Twice.
        
           | ckozlowski wrote:
           | To paraphrase The Chieftan (who's video is linked elsewhere
           | in this thread but I'll included here:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8 ), it's not about
           | the tank's vulnerabilities, but the capabilities it provides
           | that have yet to be provided elsewhere.
           | 
           | ATGMs, RPGs, guided mortar rounds and switchblade drones are
           | not offensive weapons that can take and hold ground. But
           | infantry, supported by a tank which they can knock on the
           | hatch of and tell to obliterate the machine gun nest pinning
           | them down with instant 120mm fire, can.
           | 
           | When armies find something that can replace the mobile,
           | protected, and relatively _instant_ firepower a tank can
           | provide to the infantry, the tank will be dead. But nothing
           | yet has quite come along to combine those things, and so
           | regardless of the tank 's vulnerabilities, it will remain.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | eftychis wrote:
             | Why do portable drones not offer the instant firepower?
        
               | matt_s wrote:
               | How much ammo can a drone carry? Even if its an African
               | ... drone or a European one, it's a simple question of
               | weight ratios.
        
               | moogly wrote:
               | Perhaps it could carry 5 -- no, 3! -- holy hand grenades.
        
               | yding wrote:
               | If you're talking about DJI or equivalents they only have
               | 30 minutes or so of flight time and can carry at most one
               | bomb at a time. They can be useful in guerrilla
               | situations but firepower wise it's not even in the same
               | league as a tank with 40-60 cannon rounds and several
               | thousand machine gun rounds.
        
               | wyldfire wrote:
               | What if the drone were so inexpensive and portable that
               | you could consider it like you do ammunition? Then the
               | flight time and payload is much less critical - it's just
               | a pilot-able bomb.
        
               | ckozlowski wrote:
               | They don't offer the same level of firepower. A portable
               | drone may be faster employed than a helicopter, large
               | drone, or close support aircraft, but it suffers from
               | lack of payload. It also takes longer to get on target,
               | and has it's own set of vulnerabilities. (The
               | vulnerability argument being that even if it is
               | expendable, a drone disrupted or shot down does not help
               | your unit eliminate the threat it was facing.)
               | 
               | A large-caliber, direct-fire gun provides long range,
               | precise, and instant effects. As The Chieftan explains:
               | https://youtu.be/lI7T650RTT8?t=934 (timecode link
               | provided.)
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | Because when a tank fires its APFSDS gun, the muzzle
               | velocity is 1500 meters-per-second.
               | 
               | In contrast, a drone flies at 25 to 50 meters-per-second.
               | 
               | ------
               | 
               | To put it in concrete terms, a tank 3000 meters away will
               | hit its target in 2 seconds. A drone 3000 meters away
               | will take 1.5 minutes.
               | 
               | In contrast, the Javelin you launch will take 12 seconds
               | before it hits the tank at that range. That's more than
               | enough time for the tank commander to see the Javelin and
               | return fire, killing you before the Javelin even strikes
               | the tank. (This is why "fire and forget" is so important
               | on a missile like the Javelin). So we can see that even a
               | missile like a Javelin has a significant speed
               | disadvantage on these long-range plains that exist on the
               | Donbas region. Its a different fight than the typical
               | heavy-urban environment that Ukraine was doing well in a
               | few months ago.
               | 
               | -----
               | 
               | Its one thing to fight a tank in urban combat, where they
               | can only see 200 meters out (too many buildings blocking
               | your vision and the tank's vision).
               | 
               | Its a totally different thing to fight a tank on open
               | plains, where 3000m worth of vision is common.
        
               | wyldfire wrote:
               | > To put it in concrete terms, a tank 3000 meters away
               | will hit its target in 2 seconds. A drone 3000 meters
               | away will take 1.5 minutes.
               | 
               | > In contrast, the Javelin you launch will take 12
               | seconds before it hits the tank at that range.
               | 
               | What's the latency for the turret to pivot to the target
               | angle? I suppose it's pretty fast but let's say in worst
               | case 180deg? How long does that take? 1s? 10s?
        
               | ineedasername wrote:
               | T72 is about 3 seconds for 180 degrees. But it also takes
               | time for a human in the tank to notice the incoming AT
               | round, trace it back to the source, acquire a target
               | lock, and then swing the turret over.
               | 
               | I can only guess at how long the full return fire process
               | takes, but you only need to be pointing a javelin AT at
               | the tank, it will do the rest. You can be sprinting away
               | pretty much as you launch and get 50 meters away. Safe?
               | Hell no, but it's not as bad as the "2 seconds" comment
               | makes it out to be.
        
               | ineedasername wrote:
               | That 2 seconds is the projectile. Unless you're already
               | aimed directly at the AT firing point it's going to take
               | more than 2 seconds for the tank to acquire a target lock
               | and swing the turret into place.
               | 
               | Assume the turret is 90 degrees off target and it will
               | take 2 seconds just to swing the turret around. Assuming
               | it takes 2 seconds to notice the AT round fired, 2
               | seconds to target lock, that's still 8 seconds total for
               | the tank shell to hit.
               | 
               | That's not great for the AT team, but it is a survivable
               | amount of time for shoot-and-scoot tactics, enough that
               | it's going to be a hellish war of attrition between armor
               | & AT teams, not a completely one-sided battle. Which
               | seems to be roughly what we're seeing in eastern Ukraine,
               | unfortunately. A truly shitty and hellish situation all
               | around.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | > Assume the turret is 90 degrees off target and it will
               | take 2 seconds just to swing the turret around. Assuming
               | it takes 2 seconds to notice the AT round fired, 2
               | seconds to target lock, that's still 8 seconds total for
               | the tank shell to hit.
               | 
               | That's a lot of "assumptions" that still leads to a
               | virtual tie situation: both parties kill each other.
               | 
               | There's also the situation where the tank commander
               | emerges out of hide-position, fires a shell, and kills
               | the enemy infantry before they even know where the tank
               | is, and the tank then retreats back into hide-position
               | before any enemy even knows that a tank is there.
               | 
               | A tank in turret-down position is still exceptionally
               | difficult to spot. And that tank commander looking out,
               | waiting for the ideal time to ambush with his main tank
               | gun, will have night-vision, thermal vision, and loads of
               | other equipment.
               | 
               | See this screenshot of the Chieftan's discussion:
               | https://imgur.com/tk10YHN.jpg
               | 
               | In "turret down" position, pretty much only the tank
               | commander is visible. They can spot you 3000m away in
               | this kind of position thanks to modern binoculars.
               | 
               | ----------------
               | 
               | Given that the tank moves at 50km/hr, and has more
               | expensive equipment (thermal vision / etc. etc.), the
               | tank honestly has the advantage in most of these fights.
               | 
               | Infantry might (?) have the advantage of surprise and
               | hiding. But tanks also might have that advantage. There's
               | no guarantee that the infantry always ambush the tanks.
               | Especially when you consider how much faster a tank
               | travels, and the shear size / distance that these weapons
               | cover (a tank can choose any point with 3000m line-of-
               | sight to attack the enemy infantry, knowing that the
               | infantry is too slow to keep up with the tank's
               | movement).
        
           | yding wrote:
           | Drones or no drones, I'd rather be sitting behind 35cm of
           | hardened steel than out in the open with maybe 2cm of body
           | armor max.
        
           | jeffdn wrote:
           | Dropping an RKG-3 grenade on a tank from a cheap drone also
           | requires that the tank be stopped -- something that happens
           | far less often in a war of movement than in trench warfare.
           | The war in Ukraine has been extraordinarily static (like the
           | Nagorno-Karabakh War), and this has provided the
           | opportunities for COTS drones to be useful in this way. A
           | combined-arms offensive on a divisional or corps front might
           | take a handful of losses this way, but it most certainly will
           | not be stopped.
        
           | stonemetal12 wrote:
           | RPGs have existed for along time. How does using a drone to
           | deliver the grenade instead of a rocket really change the
           | scenario?
        
             | hutzlibu wrote:
             | Would you rather take on a tank with an RPG in hand, or be
             | safe in a bunker and remote control your attack?
             | 
             | If you made a misstake in the first scenario, there is no
             | second try. But if you have a second drone, there is.
             | 
             | (ukraine has more men than drones, though)
        
             | tonyhb wrote:
             | The "shock" part of "shock effect" is kind of diminished if
             | you can hide miles away from tanks, completely safe, and
             | neuter them.
        
           | etrevino wrote:
           | The Trophy Weapon System can intercept and defeat anti-tank
           | missiles and grenades and has been proven in combat. Both US
           | and Israeli tanks have those mounted on them. I wouldn't be
           | so quick to dismiss tanks as dead. Just older tanks without
           | active countermeasures are dead.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | motbob wrote:
         | Battleships are pretty intimidating too. Still obsolete.
        
       | 734129837261 wrote:
       | It's easier to make a weapon that takes out a tank, than it is to
       | make a tank that can defend itself to it.
       | 
       | Javelin missiles are just one thing, but cheap drones with simple
       | rockets on them should be able to take out a moving force of
       | numerous tanks.
       | 
       | Imagine having an arsenal of 20 tanks storming your city.
       | 
       | Now imagine having about 100 drones ordered from Amazon,
       | outfitted with RKG-3 anti-tank grenades. One each. You can fly
       | low, you can fly through the woods, and you can fly each
       | individually operated drone right up to the top part of a tank,
       | and boom.
       | 
       | No clever software automation. Just a drone that can lift
       | something like 1 kg worth of anti-tank grenade.
       | 
       | You have 20 drone operators. You'll have 5 drones per tank. One
       | after the other. Skip the already defeated tanks. Attack the
       | tanks that will create a barrier when destroyed first, take
       | natural barriers into account.
       | 
       | Your tanks can have all the power and shock and awe you might
       | think they have, but any 12-year old will be able to take you out
       | as if they were playing a video game.
        
         | nimbius wrote:
         | >It's easier to make a weapon that takes out a tank, than it is
         | to make a tank that can defend itself to it.
         | 
         | This has been a fact of warfare for almost a century. in fact
         | it was so easy the US Government published a warfighter
         | training video on how to do it, and it didnt even fill 15
         | minutes.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taHFUKKKmJM
         | 
         | Tanks had shock and awe value _in nineteen sixteen_. for the
         | first time on the battlefields you had an imposing, lumbering,
         | seemingly unstoppable juggernaut of forged iron that if left to
         | its means, could obliterate hard targets like buildings and
         | bunkers without much effort and keep advancing seemingly
         | endlessly. if you could reason to stop them, the thought was
         | perished by the overwhelming terror alone they imposed.
         | 
         | by WWII most antitank technology had reached horrors
         | unimaginable; being a tanker was objectively near suicide. the
         | swedish bofors sabot rounds could not only pierce most german
         | armor, but cook the occupants alive with a shower of boiling
         | steel before they invariably detonated the ordinance on board.
         | even smaller mines like the TM41 were enough to blow the road
         | wheels through the driver and out the hatch. And if all that
         | proves too technical, the Japanese tactic in WW2 was to simply
         | hose tanks in petrol and light them ablaze.
         | 
         | the only shock and awe of a 21st century tank is watching your
         | tax dollars propel something with 0.6mpg
        
         | jimmytidey wrote:
         | Your broader point might be correct but an anti tank grenade
         | would not be likely to knock out a modern tank.
        
         | earthbee wrote:
         | I think every half way capable military on the planet is seeing
         | the news and videos coming out of Ukraine and thinking, hmm,
         | must invest in anti-drone technology.
         | 
         | A decade from now what's happening in Ukraine won't work
         | against most major military powers. The drones we're seeing are
         | very slow and very low but modern anti-aircraft systems aren't
         | optimised to detect things this small and low so are getting
         | away mostly untouched, but there's no significant technological
         | hurdle against modifying existing systems or developing new
         | ones that work against this type of threat.
        
         | firebaze wrote:
         | Either you're kidding, or you're really ignoring the fact that
         | "the enemy" will pursue the same? I'm slowly losing trust in
         | humanity (ok, I'ma slow learner).
        
         | amluto wrote:
         | Because solo tanks storming a city isn't what tanks are for.
         | 
         | https://acoup.blog/2022/05/06/collections-when-is-a-tank-not...
         | 
         | edit: for example, I would not want to be a drone operator
         | controlling a drone in real time anywhere near a modern army.
         | RF direction finders are a thing.
        
       | openasocket wrote:
       | The war in Ukraine doesn't provide sufficient evidence that
       | modern combined arms operations are outdated. Russia deployed
       | combat troops significantly short on man power, leading to a
       | situation where attacks had far more armor than infantry. See
       | https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-...
       | for example. It's been known since the Spanish Civil War that
       | tanks are vulnerable to anti-tank teams when not properly
       | supported by infantry, especially in adverse terrain. WW2-era
       | tanks were effectively countered by anti-tank gun teams in
       | entrenched positions, which is why they worked in concert with
       | infantry, artillery, and close air support to suppress anti-tank
       | guns and enable the tanks to advance. Or they could bypass these
       | well-defended positions and attack at weaker points, taking
       | advantage of the tank's superior tactical mobility.
       | 
       | While it is possible that drones and modern ATGM teams could
       | effectively counter traditional combined arms operations, the
       | evidence from the war in Ukraine is largely inconclusive at this
       | time. If Russia were to correct their manpower issues, or at
       | least be able to conduct traditional combined arms offensives in
       | certain areas, then we'd have more solid evidence. Notably
       | Ukraine still sees value in the tank, since they've been
       | repeatedly requesting tanks (along with a variety of equipment)
       | from the West.
       | 
       | Personally, I think we'll see an adjustment to the balance of
       | military forces, but the tank will continue to play a pivotal
       | role. Active protection systems will continue to improve, we'll
       | see the expansion of short range air defenses and doctrine to
       | counter drones (and even longer-ranged ATGMs), increased teaming
       | of drones alongside infantry and armor (in doctrine acting as a
       | sort of middle ground between artillery and air power), and the
       | usage of novel indirect fires for tanks like the KSTAM.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | It's hard to get a feel for what is happening overall, but the
         | amount of video of Russian armor of all types operating alone (
         | no infantry support) has been pretty shocking.
        
         | baybal2 wrote:
        
       | dibujante wrote:
       | Yes, it's still valuable to be able to move a heavily armored
       | computer onto the battlefield, even if you need to be more
       | cautious about exposing it to direct fire now.
        
         | cestith wrote:
         | They're cheaper and making them quite so heavily armored is
         | less important if there are no humans in them, too. That's a
         | whole different can of worms when the calculus changes from
         | blood and treasure to just treasure though, especially if only
         | on one side.
        
       | bozhark wrote:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTBA5tQsDbE
        
       | happyopossum wrote:
       | What we've seen in Ukraine is far from modern tanks fighting with
       | modern tank doctrine.
       | 
       | Yes, technically some of those tanks are 'modern', but many of
       | them appear to have fake reactive armor, are poorly built, and
       | they are being deployed without infantry, air, or logistical
       | support. It's the perfect recipe to lose all of your tanks.
        
         | bergenty wrote:
         | Tanks are no match for drones. Anything that slow moving will
         | get taken out and cheaply. Reactive armor is good for one maybe
         | two hits and that's only a couple of thousand in drones.
        
           | diordiderot wrote:
           | One or two hits _in the same spot_.
           | 
           | The bigger threat is dual charged ammunition like the
           | javelins
        
           | sixstringtheory wrote:
           | This is assuming there wouldn't be a swarm of drones deployed
           | alongside the tanks. Tanks could be used analogously to
           | aircraft carriers, which would be sitting ducks vs
           | jets/subs/battleships, if it weren't for their own jets
           | they're carrying, or the battleships sailing with them.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | Most of what you have mentioned are inherent shortcomings of
         | tanks in a modern battlefield. They are fuel intensive. They
         | need massive logistical support. They are vulnerable to
         | targeted attacks, like from drones. None of this is unique to
         | the Ukraine situation.
         | 
         | It is very hard for tanks to be effective in the age of cheap
         | UAVs.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Right. There were similar discussions about whether the tank
           | has a future after many of them were destroyed in the 2020
           | Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The main issues were crappy
           | Russian equipment and poor tactics.
           | 
           | https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-
           | military/2020/09/30/...
        
             | ksidudwbw wrote:
             | There isnt a silver bullet for every situation and
             | condition, but a moveable metal box that can target heat-
             | emitting targets in its line of sight is useful. As long as
             | its potential is fully utilised like machine assisted
             | target aquisiton and liquidation (ai assisted optics +
             | firing)
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | The Abrams A1 got like half a mile to the gallon didn't it?
           | How many miles can they move before you have to park them
           | next to a giant, unarmored gas can?
        
             | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
             | US armor formations are based around a 12 hour resupply
             | cycle. This is why an armored brigade is not just the tanks
             | and such, it's also all the logistics equipment they need
             | to sustain operations. That said, logistics is a strength
             | of the US military, and something that is a severe
             | challenge in Ukraine atm.
        
             | dgfitz wrote:
             | I'll see if I can find a link, but there's a small program
             | the army is running for unmanned tanks, and the RCV-M is
             | electric with a diesel genset to charge the batteries,
             | range of ~450 miles I think?
        
             | aaronblohowiak wrote:
             | the abrams had a 500 gallon tank, so... pretty far?
        
               | formerkrogemp wrote:
               | Sounds like a pretty big explosive to carry on hand.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | Not really. The tanks are outside the armor and just blow
               | up if they get a direct hit. Shockingly enough the people
               | who design gas tanks for tanks thought of the possibility
               | the tank might get shot by something.
        
               | VincentEvans wrote:
               | It's ok. They can put it next to the actual explosives.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | TIL that the energy content of 33k gallons of gas is
               | equivalent to a 1 kiloton bomb. I am probably on a list
               | now for trying to figure out the explosive power of a
               | Javelin missile, which I did not find.
        
           | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
           | Infantry are vulnerable to literally everything, and yet no
           | one besides some dingbats that watched terminator too many
           | times are suggesting the age of infantry is over. Aircraft
           | are vulnerable to missiles. Is anyone suggesting the age of
           | aircraft are over? Drones, particularly consumer quadcopter
           | adopted out of convenience are vulnerable to missiles,
           | autocannons, and electronic warfare. Does not the very same
           | logic being offered as proof of the end of tanks apply to
           | drones as well?
           | 
           | This whole argument is stupid and predicated on a vast
           | misunderstanding of how combined arms operations work.
           | Systems are not discard because they're vulnerable, if they
           | can be employed in a way that min/maxes their impact vs
           | vulnerability.
           | 
           | There is nothing new about this conflict as far as tanks and
           | ATGMs. Everything happening here happened in the Yom Kippor
           | war, in Grozny, in Syria, and in Yemen.
           | 
           | You just have a bunch of lazy bloggers and journalists making
           | a sensationalized claim to sound like something exciting and
           | dramatic is happening, at the cost of grossly distorting the
           | actual reality.
           | 
           | What will change is future tanks will likely prioritize
           | active protection systems and sensors over bulk armor. But
           | the basic concept of combing firepower, mobility, and
           | protection is not going away any time soon.
           | 
           | Example, Rheinmetall just announced their new tank prototype
           | this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTBA5tQsDbE
           | 
           | A couple key features:
           | 
           | * an active protection system specifically for top attack
           | munitions like Javelin
           | 
           | * a remote weapons station with a machine gun specifically
           | for engaging small low altitude drones like quad copters
           | 
           | * flexible manning, including looking at autonomy and remote
           | control
           | 
           | * ability to host drones for its own situational awareness
           | 
           | * a loitering munition that's being co-designed, launched by
           | the big gun
           | 
           | Maybe the era of the T-72 is over. But the people confidently
           | predicting the era of tanks and armored fighting vehicles in
           | general are over, cuz missiles, cuz drones, frankly, have no
           | clue what they're talking about.
        
             | bergenty wrote:
             | Aircraft are fast, have actual deterrents against attacks
             | and can fire from a distance. Tanks need to be close to
             | attack, are slow and completely vulnerable to drone
             | attacks.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | For ground combat tanks are very comparable. They can
               | have an effect on any target within 2km or more within
               | single seconds of spotting it. Tanks also have
               | deterrents, such as the basics of combined arms tactics,
               | but also smoke screens, etc.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | > and yet no one besides some dingbats that watched
             | terminator too many times
             | 
             | and missed the moral of the story...
             | 
             | > This whole argument is stupid and predicated on a vast
             | misunderstanding of how combined arms operations work.
             | Systems are not discard because they're vulnerable, if they
             | can be employed in a way that min/maxes their impact vs
             | vulnerability.
             | 
             | The mythology of the board game Go is that it was invented
             | by a Chinese general in an attempt to teach his son
             | strategy and tactics. In that domain there is a concept
             | called Aji, in which you should not write off pieces on the
             | board that are doomed. The fact that they are still on the
             | board makes them useful, even if they can't possibly be
             | saved, saved only by gross error by the opponent, or saving
             | them is possible but devastating to your overall prospects.
        
             | chrisseaton wrote:
             | Infantry disperse and hide. Tanks really struggle to do
             | either.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | Which is why you screen tanks with infantry.
        
               | chrisseaton wrote:
               | Not sure what you think a screen is... but it doesn't
               | hide anything. A screen is about finding, not hiding.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | Yes, exactly. The infantry screen the tanks from enemy
               | infantry ATGM groups. Everything that makes enemy
               | infantry with ATGMs more effective tank hunters makes
               | infantry screening the tanks more effective at countering
               | them.
        
               | chrisseaton wrote:
               | > The infantry screen the tanks from enemy infantry
               | 
               | Then you mean the infantry screen the enemy infantry from
               | the tanks. You screen the threat, not what you're
               | protecting.
        
             | spacemanmatt wrote:
             | > an active protection system specifically for top attack
             | munitions like Javelin
             | 
             | Worth noting: The western-made MANPADs are designed to
             | exploit a serious design flaw in Soviet-era tanks. The
             | ammunition is stored in the turret where it is easy to
             | ignite externally. That's why we have so much youtube of
             | Russian tanks blowing their turret sky-high.
             | 
             | Long story short, design failure can't be remedied by
             | anything they can put on the top of the tank unless it's
             | another tank.
        
               | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
               | Yeah, that's an issue too, though frankly speaking,
               | partitioned ammo rack and blow out panels be danged, I
               | don't think I'd want to be inside an Abrams that got hit
               | by a Javelin or equivalent.
        
       | ramesh31 wrote:
       | Tanks are not going anywhere. Especially depending on your
       | definition of "tank". The initial Russian push to Kiev was a
       | disastrous blunder as they ran into unexpected resistance; no one
       | just rolls unsupported tanks into a city they are expecting to
       | have to fight for. But taking (and holding) a city means taking
       | (and holding) the streets, which is impossible for the infantry
       | alone without direct fire and armor support. You will be
       | decimated by sniper and indirect fire otherwise. If anything,
       | this conflict underscores just how crucial armor is to modern
       | warfare. With GPS guided artillery, and omnipresent drone
       | threats, the days of infantrymen defending trench lines in the
       | open are over.
        
         | hutzlibu wrote:
         | " With GPS guided artillery, and omnipresent drone threats, the
         | days of infantrymen defending trench lines in the open are
         | over."
         | 
         | But you aware, that there are currently many infantrymen
         | digging and defending trenches in the ukraine? (partly allmost
         | equipped like in WW2)
         | 
         | What little russia has of precisiom ammunition is reserved for
         | more valuable targets, than infantry. They just get shelled by
         | dumb artillery. Lots of it.
        
         | adolph wrote:
         | > no one just rolls unsupported tanks into a city they are
         | expecting to have to fight for
         | 
         | An example counterpoint is the Iraq war "Thunder Runs." Of
         | course the US had air superiority, etc, etc. However, sometimes
         | the resistance level cannot be known in ways other than getting
         | out there and seeing if your unit draws fire.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Baghdad_(2003)#Thund...
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _the US had air superiority, etc, etc._
           | 
           | Thunder runs were limited incursions designed to test Iraqi
           | defenses. Beyond air superiority, which is huge, the American
           | tanks also had active defenses and well-trained crew.
        
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