[HN Gopher] Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enfo...
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       Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in
       US cities
        
       Author : darkscape
       Score  : 29 points
       Date   : 2022-07-02 18:33 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | mdp2021 wrote:
       | We discussed this same article one day ago at
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31941781
        
       | s1artibartfast wrote:
       | In other fields, this is called triage. Some communities are
       | bleeding profusely and police can only temporarily stem the
       | symptoms because the root cause is much deeper. In other
       | communities, quick intervention can stabilize the situation
        
       | point_blank wrote:
       | Locked to the public. Sci-hub does not have the document either.
        
         | mastercheif wrote:
         | Found it here:
         | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349228599_Precise_E...
        
           | balderdash wrote:
           | Wow this thing is impossible to decipher
        
             | samatman wrote:
             | That's because the product of value to the 'researchers' is
             | the title.
        
       | abduhl wrote:
       | " These precise predictions enable equally precise evaluation of
       | inequities in law enforcement, discovering that response to
       | increased crime rates is biased by the socio-economic status of
       | neighborhoods, draining policy resources to wealthy areas with
       | disproportionately negative impacts for the inner city, as
       | demonstrated in Chicago and six other major U.S. metropolitan
       | areas."
       | 
       | In other words, cops abandon poor neighborhoods when crime goes
       | up there and mobilize to rich neighborhoods when crime goes up
       | there. I'd be interested to know the other 6 metro areas,
       | although I have a suspicion of which ones they are and their
       | flavor of DA.
        
         | ezekiel11 wrote:
         | Korean immigrants found that out the hard way almost 30 years
         | ago in LA.
        
           | bergenty wrote:
           | No they knew. It's just that riots don't happen that often so
           | they were willing to take the risk and the opportunity cost
           | since other Americans wouldn't do it.
        
       | civilized wrote:
       | So, they fit a fancy model, played with it, and claim the result
       | says something about the real world?
       | 
       | I have never seen a valid social science result derived by this
       | method. This is just fancy model lovers dabbling.
       | 
       | If the patterns they claim are real, they can be exposed with
       | much simpler and direct methods. Let's talk after that's been
       | done.
        
         | mulmen wrote:
         | What are those simpler and direct methods? Have they been done?
        
         | bergenty wrote:
         | Is fancy supposed to be derogatory in this statement?
        
           | civilized wrote:
           | Too fancy for anyone to be confident in what it's doing or
           | whether it reflects real patterns.
           | 
           | 0.90 AUC doesn't mean everything you can get this model to
           | tell you is real.
        
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       (page generated 2022-07-02 23:00 UTC)