[HN Gopher] Supply chain issues are killing synth companies
___________________________________________________________________
Supply chain issues are killing synth companies
Author : anigbrowl
Score : 203 points
Date : 2022-07-13 18:21 UTC (4 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.synthtopia.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.synthtopia.com)
| rasz wrote:
| You are the problem if you wait two years for F7 instead of
| retooling.
|
| >We have open orders for thousands of microcontrollers from NXP
| and Microchip. The problem extends far beyond processors. Texas
| Instrument power switchers used throughout the industry are in
| very short supply; we use them for pulling down 15V supplies to
| 3.3V or to generate +/- and 48V phantom power rails. We also
| cannot get some ESD protection parts, power MOSFETs and a number
| of somewhat obscure analog switching ICs. We're also paying
| 30-40% more for metal cases and packaging.
|
| Meanwhile less reputable Chinese branded replacements are
| plentiful and cheap.
| CamperBob2 wrote:
| Retool for _what_? How do you know whatever you choose will be
| available for production?
| lnsru wrote:
| We buy what's available in stock, design with these parts
| small runs(500-2000 units). And then the run in 3 months is
| being made with completely different parts that were
| available. It's emergency solution. But it's better than
| being out of business.
| samatman wrote:
| I'm out of my depth here, but I'm under the impression that
| synthesizers just don't work that way. My source is a
| housemate of an old friend, whose profession was restoring
| a certain sort of mixer popular with house DJs, for
| whatever that's worth.
|
| Analog synths, at least, just won't sound right if
| components get swapped. The TR-808 was discontinued, and
| replaced with the 909, because a critical component went
| out of production, and it wasn't possible to deliver the
| sound without it.
|
| It's the difference between a wood shortage for a
| cabinetmaker and for a luthier. A cabinetmaker can use
| mahogany where he would use ebony, a luthier is out of
| business if she can't get certain woods until she can
| again.
|
| This could be totally inapplicable to modern synths? I
| wouldn't bet on it though.
| mzs wrote:
| The two parts mentioned were an ARM board and DSP. Those
| are easily retooled for and not like an opamp or
| something very particular.
| munificent wrote:
| _> Analog synths, at least, just won 't sound right if
| components get swapped._
|
| I think this is true in some cases for particular analog
| synths. But my impression is that most synths aren't
| using unobtainium chips like this. I think you generally
| can redesign the circuit using alternate components and
| get to a fairly close sound. But that redesign process is
| iterative and time-consuming.
|
| By analogy, imagine there a shortage in "compiler
| invocations". You have a giant program written in one
| language, but you can't run a compiler on it. Could you
| port it to another language without a shortage? Sure, but
| it's a ton of work, and if you end up in another language
| that has its own compiler invocation shortage, you're no
| better off.
| rasz wrote:
| Dont go for fancy new parts, use what Chinese use at volume.
| seizethegdgap wrote:
| And what happens when your Chinese parts are stuck in China
| for weeks due to their zero-COVID policy?
| krnlpnc wrote:
| Thats a good way to get a reputation for gear that dies on
| you. Instrument components need to be extra robust, they
| are put through a lot of abuse.
| HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
| > obscure analog switching ICs
|
| This one was a surprise to me when I went looking. I'm building
| a custom audio processor for someone and I couldn't find
| something as simple as a 2-up dual mux in stock anywhere. I
| ended up finding a handful of DIP-package dual multiplexers in
| a drawer in my lab and using those. Luckily it occurred to me
| to check availability before doing a PCB layout and I only
| needed 3, but seriously! A basic analog switch was the last
| thing I though I'd have trouble finding.
| robotresearcher wrote:
| > less reputable Chinese branded replacements are plentiful and
| cheap.
|
| Do they work? What's the low reputation due to?
| varjag wrote:
| We have tested a Chinese replacement for a TI op amp SKU: it
| was terrible.
| tomg wrote:
| Eurorack got hit hard. Lots of module makers are tiny shops, some
| just one person selling a few pieces at a time.
| CoastalCoder wrote:
| What's the current prognosis for supply chains returning to
| stability?
|
| The last I heard, the main culprits were (a) COVID shutting down
| Chinese factories; (b) cargo-ship related shipping delays; (c)
| COVID-related demand for work-from-home electronics; and (d)
| follow-on problems caused by hoarding.
|
| My impression was that (a, b, c) are largely behind us now. Does
| that mean we just need to give things a little time?
|
| [Edited for clearer wording.]
| jpm_sd wrote:
| I'm an EE and I do a lot of my own supply chain management.
| Some suppliers are saying 2024 while others are refusing to
| answer the question at all. Not encouraging.
| bornfreddy wrote:
| I would add e) - if the whole western economy depends on a
| single country as a supplier, and this country wants to become
| the world leader, then it is in the interest of the said
| country to make as much economic problems for west as possible,
| but not so much that the countries would again develop local
| supply or import from elsewhere. Excuses a), b), c) and d) are
| very handy for this and allow the said country to walk the fine
| line. It helps if the country is tightly run. Genius and scary
| to watch.
| KerrAvon wrote:
| There are enough western observers in Shenzhen etc that I
| find this attractive explanation somewhat wanting.
| bobthepanda wrote:
| I don't think a or b have eased up much. Zero-covid means that
| ports in China can still lock up on a moment's notice; Shanghai
| had a total lockdown for months, and is China's largest port.
| Flatcircle wrote:
| After reading this article went to Sweetwater to check out synths
| and nearly every single synth has a price drop icon above it. So
| it can't be too severe?
| kzrdude wrote:
| Point taken. Is it a USD strength effect though?
| IAmPym wrote:
| Context: I work at Sequential
|
| Running a business is not easy. Weathering a storm like this is
| not easy. Synth company or not, we're in difficult times. A lot
| of businesses will close but the people who are patient and can
| manage to wait it out, be flexible, and figure out new ways to
| innovate when the whiplash effect swings back in our direction
| will push forward the next generation of amazing instruments.
| Prices will go up, as they naturally do, and we'll have new
| winners and losers. No reason to get all doomsayer on it all at
| this point, kind of a few years late on that one.
| CoastalCoder wrote:
| I'm curious about the technical expertise that goes into making
| a good synth.
|
| If economics force the synth-making hardware / software
| engineers into other industries, how long does it take to
| replace (or restore) their expertise once the economy recovers?
| IAmPym wrote:
| The difference is people in our industry are typically
| already taking a huge pay cut. People shuffle in and out but
| usually they end up back in the audio industry because...
| well... it's freaking awesome. How many other places can you
| work where you regularly get rockstars inviting you to hang
| out backstage because they love your work?
|
| Typically we have more people willing to leave a high paying
| job just to work in our industry than we have people leaving
| but, just like any industry, losing experience and contextual
| knowledge always hurts.
| CoastalCoder wrote:
| Thanks! I understand your point about there being a ready
| supply of great talent.
|
| My question was more along the lines of, how long does it
| take a good engineer / programmer, who hasn't developed
| synths in e.g. the last 5 years, to become highly
| productive?
| IAmPym wrote:
| It depends on the team and the way things are organized I
| guess. I've only worked at a small company where we are
| all obsessed and I couldn't imagine anyone coming onto
| the team without a similar level of enthusiasm and
| excitement, so relatively quickly. At a larger company
| I'd expect it would be the same as any other onboarding
| time.
|
| Now to be truly great at this? Much longer answer. When I
| get there I'll come back and answer it properly.
| ad8e wrote:
| My opinion is that someone who is comfortable with
| graduate level signal theory can reach synth mastery in
| one year. The physics and math are shallow and can be
| picked up quickly. The psychoacoustics takes more time
| for experimentation and reading research papers.
|
| Whereas, audio professionals who avoid mathematics
| because it looks hard, like complex analysis, do not ever
| reach an acceptable level.
| brudgers wrote:
| The Sequential where you work for today is not the same
| business entity that made the famous synths of yesteryear.
|
| Which is why I saw the headline and thought "going bust is what
| happens to synth manufacturers" and this is that part of the
| cycle.
|
| And not to say that it isn't a bummer.
|
| And not to say that today's Sequential doesn't make great gear.
|
| Just that making synths seems to be a hard business, like most
| manufacturing and art based businesses.
| IAmPym wrote:
| It's a REALLY hard business. Roger Linn repeatedly tells
| people that the easiest way to lose money is to build a
| synthesizer and he's certainly right. Then again, I ignored
| that advice. I think we're all just a bit crazy and hopeful
| that it will all work out in the end.
| brudgers wrote:
| If you make synths, at least you don't have to sell to
| enterprise.
|
| Making synths seems to be more the life of an artist than
| many other possible pursuits.
|
| The standard formula is the best way to make a small
| fortune is start with a large fortune and do X.
|
| In the first version I heard X was build a golf course. It
| was from people involved in building golf courses. The
| money was in the lots along the fairways.
| pvarangot wrote:
| > The Sequential where you work for today is not the same
| business entity that made the famous synths of yesteryear.
|
| The first synth I ever played was a "vintage" Prophet 5 in
| the 90s, now I have a reissue Prophet 10 from this "not the
| same business entity", as you very much are correct to call
| them. Even if they are not the same business entity, I know a
| lot of the people involved in making my Prophet 10 are (or
| where) the same people making the famous synths of
| yesteryear. When you play the Prophet 10 you can also tell.
|
| I am really sad I can't say the same thing about my Moogs.
| brudgers wrote:
| Yes, Dave Smith was behind the new Prophet.
|
| And I am sure that long experience goes deeper into
| Sequential's talent pool.
|
| Having veteran leadership who hat been through it all
| before might be why the new Prophet won't follow the old.
|
| The current Sequential is also an established company, so
| it is better positioned to launch new products, negotiate
| with suppliers and customers and to sell gear at higher
| prices even if not at higher margins meaning it needs fewer
| sales to survive.
| KerrAvon wrote:
| Genuinely curious, I don't hear much criticism of modern
| Moogs -- are you unhappy with them, or is it just that they
| don't sound like vintage ones?
| mochomocha wrote:
| As someone eagerly waiting for his Prophet5 Rev4 to arrive
| by mail by the end of the week, this reassures me :) Been
| playing on software versions of the Prophet5 for years and
| I finally made the jump and bought "the real thing".
| Pr0ject217 wrote:
| How is the atmosphere at work? It's incredibly sad that Dave
| passed away.
| IAmPym wrote:
| It isn't easy carrying the torch of a legend but standing on
| the shoulders of giants is how we move things forward as a
| species. I'm confident I can speak for the company when I say
| we are doing our best to keep his legacy going.
| krnlpnc wrote:
| What new sequential gear are you most excited about?
| TaupeRanger wrote:
| With the advent of modern software emulations and MIDI
| controllers, I'm surprised many of these companies are still in
| business. There have been so many blind tests where audio experts
| can't tell the difference between pure analog and pure digital
| modeling. I know some people like the knobs and buttons as a
| catalyst for exploration, but anything you might do with an
| analog synth knob you can ultimately do in a software model. And
| when good synths cost $3,000 and up, the value just isn't there
| unless you're just trying to impress people that walk into your
| studio.
| 3565366 wrote:
| It isn't about the quality of the audio, although in some cases
| it is. For most, navigating a physical device is still a much
| easier workflow than navigating software synths. There are so
| many advantages to software synths, but also working within the
| limitations of hardware forces you into a creative head space
| you might not get with software. I always felt uninspired by
| software at least until I discovered VCV Rack, but even then
| sometimes clicking around and zooming in and out feels tedious.
|
| Midi controllers are great, but setting them up can be a
| negative experience. The other big issue with software synths
| honestly is DRM. Some have DRM that is just as bad as video
| game DRM. I got locked out permanently from a VST I was using
| to generate melody data, and when I reached out to support they
| told me nothing could be done and I would have to re-buy the
| VST again. What happened was I had to keep inputting my license
| because occasionally, the license info would become
| disassociated with my VST. What I didn't know was this counted
| towards the max number of installs my license was capable of.
|
| The other big issue with VST is you end up in a situation where
| you cannot update your operating system because over time,
| VST's become unsupported and will not run correctly when you
| update your OS, DAW software, or audio drivers. This is an
| absolute disaster in terms of security.
|
| I would rather work within the limitations of synth hardware
| than deal with all the pain that comes with software. I still
| use VST software though. Aside from VCV Rack Serum is
| outstanding and will do almost anything you could possibly need
| a synth to do, and it does not have crazy licensing issues.
|
| I think most artists use a hybrid hardware/software workflow,
| but there are definitely disadvantages no matter what path you
| choose.
| Qub3d wrote:
| Jason, the cofounder of Schiit Audio (its pronounced exactly as
| you think it is) regularly posts updates about the company to an
| audiophile forum, and his posts regarding the supply chain
| problems they've fought in the past 2 years are fascinating:
|
| * https://www.head-fi.org/threads/schiit-happened-the-story-of...
|
| * https://www.head-fi.org/threads/schiit-happened-the-story-of...
|
| * https://www.head-fi.org/threads/schiit-happened-the-story-of...
| xeromal wrote:
| I have a Fulla E from these guys. Love it!
| Dracophoenix wrote:
| Now there's a name I haven't heard in a while. I enjoy the
| company's no-nonsense designs, but as Audio Science Review and
| NwAvGuy have proven, objectively higher quality audiophile
| equipment can be bought or built for much less money than
| Schitt is asking for.
| Qub3d wrote:
| Objectivity and audiophile in the same sentence always makes
| me suspicious, especially when you are looking at the 100s to
| 1000s of extra dollars for 3-5% improvement on measurements
| (and good luck detecting that in an ABX test).
|
| I moved to a modi/magni stack from a Fiio portable and I
| don't know if I'll ever bother to upgrade again.
| MuffinFlavored wrote:
| Ironically, I'd be pretty hard pressed to believe you could
| tell the "quality" from a Fiio DAC compared to an iPhone
| ericbarrett wrote:
| It would likely be quite easy if you could compare them
| back to back, as in swapping from one to the other and
| playing a controlled source with a hi-fidelity amp and
| good headphones. The analog side of digital-analog
| conversion is an art unto itself and I've found a lot of
| variance between DACs, even though I'm neither a sound
| engineer nor an audiophile. If you are just playing a 64k
| AAC file on your EarPods, probably not.
| bee_rider wrote:
| IIRC the iPhone dac/amp is supposed to be fairly decent
| for driving, like, normal headphones. At least in the
| past (not sure in the post-dongle days).
| ZekeSulastin wrote:
| The Apple USB-C dongle is actually pretty well regarded
| as an inexpensive step up from onboard audio for "normal"
| headphones, and some folks will use it as a starter DAC
| to pair with an amp for less "normal" headphones ...
| mlyle wrote:
| > > objectively higher quality audiophile equipment
|
| > Objectivity and audiophile in the same sentence always
| makes me suspicious
|
| While we can't detect all the things that people talk about
| or rave about...
|
| There's a whole lot of things we can measure pretty well;
| THD+N, intermodulation, frequency response, jitter & phase
| noise, etc. If something measures better on those simple
| measurements, and we're not deliberately looking for some
| warm distortion, etc-- we can know it's better.
|
| His point is that cheaper equipment performs better on
| objective tests that Schiits. The "better" may not matter,
| but the point is that cheaper and better is a more
| desirable combo than more expensive and worse.
| bee_rider wrote:
| I wasn't familiar with Audio Science Review, but I looked
| them up and enjoyed their review of a *$350 power cord*.
|
| https://www.audiosciencereview.com/forum/index.php?threads/
| g...
|
| At least from this one sample they look legit, if anything
| counter-audiophile, in the sense that it is objectively
| measuring the lack of improvement.
|
| I'd also call the basic schiit stack (which I also have)
| counter-audiophile -- it is just a nice, solid piece of
| kit. (and an immediately obvious improvement over my PC's
| built in stereo jack, haha).
| xeromal wrote:
| Got any recommendations? I have some Schiit equipment.
| seanp2k2 wrote:
| RME ADI-2 was and still is my endgame DAC + headphone amp.
| Requires a funky adapter to use in dual output balanced
| mode, but boy does that make the HD800S sing.
|
| https://www.rme-audio.de/adi-2-pro-fs-be.html
|
| ASR Review: https://www.audiosciencereview.com/forum/index.
| php?threads/r...
| Dracophoenix wrote:
| Schitt's good [1] if that what you already have. Unless you
| made your purchase a decade ago or feel dissatisfied with
| the product in some way, Schitt isn't a bad choice. One
| plus is that Schitt also provides paid upgrades for some of
| its higher end boxes. My "issue", for lack of better
| phrasing, is that Schitt is not the most optimal in terms
| of performance per dollar.
|
| As far as recommendations are concerned, there are many on
| this webpage:
|
| https://www.audiosciencereview.com/forum/index.php?pages/Re
| v...
|
| If you have a particular featureset, utility, budget,
| design, genres of music, etc. I'd be happy to offer what I
| can, but I'd also recommend that you take the time to
| review what works for you. After all, it's your ears, not
| mine.
|
| [1] ;)
| xeromal wrote:
| I'm very happy with Schitt. I just asked out of curiosity
| because the person mentioned equipment that is cheaper
| and better. My Fulla E was $120 so I was curious what is
| good in that price range! All good though. I'm very happy
| as-is.
| Dracophoenix wrote:
| > the person mentioned equipment that is cheaper and
| better
|
| I'm the same person. But it's good to hear that you're
| fine with what you have. The review site I linked should
| statisfy your curiosity.
| olkingcole wrote:
| The newer stuff (magni/modi 3) has fixed the Audio Science
| Review guy's complaints and he now recommends those models. I
| went through all this when I was shopping for reasonably (to
| me) priced gear.
|
| https://www.audiosciencereview.com/forum/index.php?threads/r.
| ..
|
| > I am recommending the Schiit Modi 3 without reservations.
|
| https://www.audiosciencereview.com/forum/index.php?threads/r.
| ..
|
| > Both Topping A30 and Schiit Magni 3 are recommended for
| budget friendly choices in headphone amplifiers. Let your
| preferences in looks, usability, etc. guide you in your
| selection.
| recursive wrote:
| Personal anecdote: I ordered a synth from Sweetwater on 4/1. It's
| shipping now. (Yamaha Reface DX)
| fleddr wrote:
| It feels like we're at the end of an era.
|
| Most of us spent an entire lifetime in a particular model. The
| model being that supply is pretty much unlimited, given that you
| have money. And even money is a pretty fluid concept. Not only is
| everything unlimited, in recent years we've also made most of it
| instant. We've become completely detached from real world
| resources like commodities but also workers.
|
| Indoctrinated to the maximum into this consumer economy, ordering
| something and learning that you can't have it despite putting up
| the money, comes as a system shock. The very concept of "NO" is
| back from past times. What do you mean, no? I said I want it.
|
| Optimists would find it an excellent time to recalibrate society.
| Acknowledge critical dependencies and in-source them. Spent
| limited resources, such as workers, on areas considered vital
| instead of dispersing them across a million things less vital.
|
| Of course, none of this will actually happen. Just like during
| COVID where we had the "nature is healing" meme, we soon learned
| that it's same-old as soon as restrictions were lifted. We're
| unwilling to let go of a fragile and unsustainable global supply
| chain. We're afraid to make any hard choice at all.
|
| Unlike China. We're all aware their economy is more planned but
| one of their most fascinating moves is to slash the tech sector.
| And with "tech" I mean what the US considers tech. Which is the
| stuff coming out of SV. Most of it is entertainment, social
| network stuff, games, the like.
|
| According to China, this isn't tech. It's unimportant soft tech
| that in many ways is a net negative to society. Plus it's hard to
| censor. So they decimated the entire thing and re-calibrated
| "tech" to real-world tech.
|
| I'm in no way in favor of this type of intervention but I do find
| it a fascinating example of making actual hard choices. In the
| West, we don't seem to prioritize anything at all, we'd rather
| continue with the limitless illusion in a world that isn't.
| DennisP wrote:
| Read Peter Zeihan, who very much agrees that it's the end of an
| era. In his view, globalization is coming to an end, and the
| supply chain issues we're seeing now are just a hint of what's
| coming for the rest of the decade.
|
| He's not optimistic about China's prospects, though.
| omginternets wrote:
| What's his thesis on China, at a high level?
| garbanz0 wrote:
| This is well written but also very alarmist. There are supply
| chain issues, but in the west they're limited to certain
| industries. Amazon orders still arrive in two days. My grocery
| store is still stocked full. Inflation sucks, and so does the
| stock market, but we're in the middle of a European war and
| just out of a global pandemic. Demand has already risen to pre-
| pandemic levels, so supply will eventually reorient to meet it.
| All things considered, the economy is still doing pretty great!
| jfim wrote:
| There's all kinds of stuff that's affected though. For
| example, if you want a 16x7 garage door, you're looking at
| getting it in November or December of this year if you're
| ordering now [1].
|
| [1] https://www.homedepot.com/p/Clopay-Classic-
| Collection-16-ft-...
| tester756 wrote:
| >According to China, this isn't tech. It's unimportant soft
| tech that in many ways is a net negative to society. Plus it's
| hard to censor. So they decimated the entire thing and re-
| calibrated "tech" to real-world tech.
|
| hi, any source on that?
|
| I'm curious because I do share this opinion.
| systemvoltage wrote:
| Defeatism and giving up on challenges is exactly what I want
| humanity to not do, but this kind of regressive society is
| being fed by social media constantly. To live poor, to eat
| vegan food, to give up technological progress and to save
| energy.
|
| The fact that out of all places, HN advocates it, is truly an
| end of an era of human ambition. I come to HN for optimism and
| relentless push to change the world for the better.
| goldenchrome wrote:
| What's "real-world tech"?
| honkler wrote:
| now you'll ask what are "bullshit jobs"
| quickthrower2 wrote:
| I assume this means things like cars, factories,
| infrastructure, building industry, military and so on.
|
| One of the biggest/famous companies in the world with the
| most cash is in the US needs China to make it's devices
| still. That might tell us something.
|
| Are we (westerners) the sheep being well fed, for now?
| golergka wrote:
| I'm confused; are you bringing up China as a good example?
| Because they currently have much more dangerous problems both
| with economy and society than the first-world countries, and
| unlike first-world countries, don't really show agility and
| self-reflection required to address them.
| jl6 wrote:
| Feels like this is a golden opportunity, and possibly our last
| chance, to re-onshore supply chains to the west. Will anyone take
| it, or will we just wait around until China sorts itself out and
| resumes its steady ascendancy?
| citilife wrote:
| I don't think we'll have a choice before long, to be frank.
| China and Russia are in a military and economic alliance
|
| https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2022/04/14/the-logic-behind-chin...
|
| They're created the BRICS back in 2009 and have been expanding.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
|
| In reality, if the west views Russia as a threat, then
| inevitably conflict will arise. The western sanctions locked
| Russia out of the financial system, which Russia and China had
| been preparing for. So Russia switched to the Chinese financial
| system. At this point, Russia has tons of resources and is
| feeding the Chinese production. China _in 2019_ was producing
| 30% of the worlds goods[1].
|
| With Russia locked out of the west and China looking to advance
| into Taiwan, I don't really see a way that long-term China
| doesn't cease to produce goods for the west. When they move on
| Taiwan, the west will sanction them and the west will be unable
| to produce a large number of goods. Alternatively, Taiwan will
| fall and be taken without a fight and the west will be
| subjugated by China.
|
| [1] https://www.statista.com/chart/20858/top-10-countries-by-
| sha...
| Fauntleroy wrote:
| This is all well and good, but in the closing you forgot the
| part where that action would cause the Chinese economy to
| collapse entirely.
| thriftwy wrote:
| > s/Chinese //
|
| I don't think that world would have any economy to speak
| of, in this case. That, or Taiwan would just share the fate
| of Hong Kong where it would be handed out.
| arroz wrote:
| HK was a city in China. Taiwan is a country. They are not
| gonna have the same fate without a huge fight.
| thriftwy wrote:
| Bzzt! Wrong!
|
| HK is a city of British Empire, and Taiwan is a province
| of China (which is contested neither by CCP nor
| Kuomintang).
|
| Both HK and Taiwan had nativist movement, I think. But,
| many regions do. California has one. So does Texas.
| arroz wrote:
| No one cares about BRICS, it is just propaganda
|
| India and China hate each other
|
| Russia and Brazil get along with all
|
| Brazil is too far away
|
| It is just a propaganda block, I would be surprised if there
| is anything meaningful coming out of this block
|
| And I don't understand why you comment so much about Russia,
| this is about China, no one cares about Russia
| theflyinghorse wrote:
| Pushing Russia steaight into Chinese hands is a blunder of an
| epic scale. Now Chinese have one of the biggest raw resource
| and energy producers who cannot sell anywhere else but to
| them. Massive win for China, massive loss for the EU.
|
| But why on Earth would China stop producing goods for sale to
| the West? Its a trumendous opportunity for making money
| [deleted]
| tick_tock_tick wrote:
| I do think a lot of people discount China's willingness to
| destroy it's economy and kill half it's population to achieve
| questionable goals. As you're article points out it's going
| to be really interesting watching China fall out of the top
| 10 of GDP if it really goes down this route. It was a poor
| country before but once the population gets a taste of
| success I can only imagine it ends in revolt.
| DoctorNick wrote:
| This is patently absurd. That China would have a
| "willingness to kill half it's population" is something
| that only the heavily propagandized would believe.
| beebmam wrote:
| China's plans are to maintain Zero-COVID until at least the mid
| 2020's. China will not sort itself out. It's a complete
| disaster
| honkler wrote:
| coliveira wrote:
| I think you're blindsided by American media. COVID lockdowns
| are not nearly as big a problem as they are presented in the
| West. First of all, any lockdown is for at most a few weeks.
| Second, China has dozens of huge cities, and they are all
| working extra when a couple of cities are locked out due to
| COVID. The Chinese are doing this in a planed way that will
| have a minimal impact on the economy in the long run. The
| fall down of Chinese economy due to lockdowns is just another
| fantasy of US media.
| markdown wrote:
| > The fall down of Chinese economy due to lockdowns is just
| another fantasy of US media.
|
| I guess everyone else in this thread is just imagining the
| lack of supply from China.
| genericone wrote:
| /s
| jmoak3 wrote:
| >until China sorts itself out and resumes its steady
| ascendancy?
|
| With what workers? They'll be too busy caring for their
| parents.
|
| That is, if their government and society even survive the
| decade's transition as their quality of life stagnates and
| people begin to question the CCP.
|
| https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/
| dirtyid wrote:
| Youth unemployment for higher ed has been issue for years,
| reality is PRC scale is still generating more talent than it
| can absorb. QoL stagnanting like west is questionable, vast
| majority of PRC is still poor enough that modest income
| redistribution can push up their QoL for forseeable future.
| For example spending 90B / 10% of PRC's 900B growth from last
| year can double income of the 600M poor on 1000rmb per month.
| Realistically that will be titrated over years via various
| transfer programs so QoL for masses will keep ticking up. Top
| % of PRC human capita drives a lot of growth and education
| system is pumping out excess even after brain drain. The
| income disparity (thanks Deng) is so large enough that
| "common prosperity" drives should more or less maintain
| social stability vs west where new gens' have meaningfully
| degradeds QoL relative to western boomers. Meanwhile PRC also
| has highest savings rate in the world, parents in better
| position to care for themselves. Nor are there same
| expectation for social services from country that is poor
| before rich vs rich before old, i.e. Japan actually has to
| funnel massive state resources to take care of elderly
| because that's expected. Not to imply PRC will experience
| smooth sailing or reach western QoL standards, but income
| disparity and expections = PRC is structured to have
| sufficient talent and resources to (likely) handle the
| transition without stagnation. It's still going to be rough,
| and PRC will still be pressure cooker society, but IMO
| chances becoming stuck like JP is low. That's without going
| into how military/strategic posture benefits shedding 100s of
| millions of people have on import dependency while huge
| industrial base where 2% military spending allows effective
| aquisition pipeline. Bluntly, PLA military is currently
| massively modernizing on a budget but that's still enough to
| to keep accruing more favourable force balance over time
| since it uses comparably little resources (both funding and
| human capita) that it's one sector that won't stagnate. Room
| to even future increase in military budget is not out of the
| question.
| honkler wrote:
| you make good points but please use paragraphs. It makes
| reading easy.
| badrabbit wrote:
| You can distribute it to india,vietnam,south america but
| onshore isn't happening. Especially not in a pseudo-recession
| where you can't pass on cost to consumers like before (at least
| not more than what is already).
| cwkoss wrote:
| The strengthening dollar is going to make it hard to convince
| suits to not just keep importing more and more, unfortunately.
| Analemma_ wrote:
| No they won't, because fabs are long-term investments and
| anyone who onshores because of this crisis will be fucked over
| when things return to normal and their costs are suddenly many
| times higher than the ones of their competitors who stayed in
| China.
|
| Re-onshoring requires massive, permanent subsidies from the
| government to be a realistic proposition, and it is far from
| clear that we have the will to do that.
| coliveira wrote:
| I think it is already too late. This should have been done 5
| years ago, at least. There is no financial incentive to do
| anything in the US, and the infrastructure is worse than at any
| previous point in time. For this to change, the Federal
| government should plan and start investing enormous sums of
| money, at least as much as China did in the previous 20 years.
| I don't see this happening at least during this administration,
| which will make this impossible for another 3 years.
| koheripbal wrote:
| Given historically low unemployment rate, how would we even
| populate these factories?
| rurp wrote:
| While unemployment is indeed quite low, the labor force
| participation rate is extremely low; much lower than even
| the aftermath of the great recession[0]. There are plenty
| of additional workers in the US, the catch is that they
| aren't willing to work a demanding job for poverty wages.
|
| If more companies were willing to treat and pay their
| employees well there wouldn't be a labor shortage.
| Corporate profits have been shattering records for decades
| now, so it's not like the resources aren't there.
| Unfortunately, many believe it's easier and more cost
| effective to whine about folks being lazy and wait for the
| Fed to crash the economy and generate a fresh supply of
| desperate labor.
|
| [0]https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-
| situation/civilian-lab....
| coliveira wrote:
| That's a good point, but the low unemployment is not a
| great sign for the US, unfortunately. The majority of these
| jobs are low wage positions. Factory jobs would be far more
| beneficial. Unfortunately it will not happen.
| Syonyk wrote:
| Supply chain issues are killing _everyone._
|
| You want to build a product? Great, here's the list of what you
| can't get this week. It's different from last week, next week
| will be different too. Good luck!
|
| Parts that used to cost $0.50 are now $5+ (various ADCs and DACs
| come to mind as one I've been dealing with). God help you if you
| want trailer axles. Etc.
|
| There's only so much you can do with flexibility and "Redesign
| every few weeks for what's available for this batch" before your
| design costs and parts cost increases chew up all the available
| profits, even if you've designed for flexibility. "We can use any
| uC in this entire line!" "That line is on 54 week lead time. Yes,
| _all_ the variants. "
|
| Such is life in the decline.
| shabble wrote:
| bonus fun if you're in a regulated industry and any BoM change
| is going to be, at the minimum, an external test-lab redoing
| all your certifications, and in the worst case, a brand new
| product you need to submit to your regulating authority.
|
| No wonder there are some $5 MCUs going for $500+ each (and
| apparently selling well at those prices, even)
| cyphertruck wrote:
| That's not a bonus, that's the entire point. Regulations
| hamstring companies and then deny them the ability to even
| comply with the regulations because other regulations have
| hamstrung the supply chain after regulations forced everyone
| onto vulnerable supply chains in the first place.
|
| So instead of people getting rich by innovating and making
| other people's lives better, the people getting rich are the
| ones taking bribes ("campaign contributions" they get to keep
| forever) for reducing the impact of those regulations.
| amanaplanacanal wrote:
| The thing is, those regulations were put in place to solve
| a problem. They might not have been the best solution, but
| there is no way to know without going back and researching
| exactly what the problem was they were trying to solve.
|
| That's on top of the fact that we are always dealing with
| incomplete information.
| floren wrote:
| I designed a small circuit back in January. I ended up going
| with a PIC microcontroller because it was the only thing I
| could find that supported USB and was in-stock. I ordered
| enough parts to build four, from Digikey.
|
| Now, 6 months later, I want to build some more, and about half
| of the BOM is out of stock on Digikey. I was able to source
| most stuff on Mouser instead, but the switches I used weren't
| available anywhere and I had to go to a different manufacturer,
| driving the cost from $12 of switches per build to $18.
|
| Huge pain in the ass, but at least I was able to get it done. I
| feel for the people who designed around particular parts and
| are now starting at 2023 "in stock" dates.
| jjoonathan wrote:
| The EEs are spinning alternative designs, the SWEs are writing
| cart sniping bots, the Supply Chain guys are trying to figure
| out if anyone with chips can be compensated for their
| consideration, ASML is desoldering chips from washing machines
| so they can make machines that make more chips, Influencers are
| using clout to beg for chips
|
| https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=chip+shortage+a...
|
| Et tu, ATMEGA328P?
|
| It's getting very real very fast out there.
| KptMarchewa wrote:
| >ASML is desoldering chips from washing machines
|
| It's not what ASML does - ASML exec reported that some other
| company does this
| reaperducer wrote:
| And according to the New York Times, this is the reason
| that Russian troops are looting major appliances from
| Ukraine, and trucking them back home.
|
| There must be some interesting chips in washing machines
| these days.
| nebula8804 wrote:
| Why not just pull the circuit boards and truck those
| home? Do you really have to take the rest of the machine?
| honkler wrote:
| they want a direct line to NSA
| ok_dad wrote:
| I used to work in medical device supplier quality and incoming
| inspection and I am so happy I don't work there right now, it
| must be an absolute shit show with different/new part numbers,
| probably tons of first article inspections, and spec changes
| galore.
| camtarn wrote:
| Yep.
|
| We use smart PLCs (programmable logic controllers - basically
| an Intel Atom powered realtime platform with modular high-speed
| analogue/digital I/O) for a lot of our projects. For one
| project, we were planning on deploying a cheap PLC plus a
| thermocouple module and some SPI modules. Because of
| availability, that turned into buying thermocouple and SPI
| interface chips ourselves, and designing a custom PCB to
| interface those to a Raspberry Pi. And now of course Raspberry
| Pis are impossible to get, so while we managed to get hold of
| enough for the first run of deployments, we don't have any more
| of them - we even had to ship our tester Pi! It's a real
| scramble, and we've definitely lost a bunch of money on that
| project.
| rasz wrote:
| Do you really need multicore linux computer with gigabyte of
| ram to send temperature over the network?
| vorpalhex wrote:
| That depends on how fast you're sending it, how you are
| sending it, how precise it is, and if edge calculations
| have to be run, and calibration workloads.
| rasz wrote:
| All valid points in 1985. Nowadays smallest cheapest
| microcontroller has more processing power than fastest
| desktop from 1995.
| vorpalhex wrote:
| And in the last 30+ years do you think that maybe some of
| what we do with temperature data has changed? Or how we
| interact with a network? Or the data that sensors can
| produce?
|
| If you think you can answer parents problems without even
| knowing the problem space, you're behaving foolishly.
| camtarn wrote:
| Hey, it's alright - rasz just asked a question, and it
| was a fair one :)
| vorpalhex wrote:
| There's asking a question to learn and there's indicating
| that someone did something the wrong way without
| understanding the problem space.
|
| Understand the problem, then propose solutions.
|
| Anything else is ass backwards.
| rasz wrote:
| OP described remote temperature sensor for a PLC. What
| you might want to do with data might changed, but how we
| gather it only got optimized down to specialized
| controller chips. Amplification, compensation,
| linearization - all taken care of by dedicated interface
| chips, something like AD849x, MAX6675/MAX31855 or
| ADS1118. There is nothing left to do at the remote end
| that cant be done further down the line. Measurement is
| pretty much Push Button, Receive Bacon to the point you
| can build your own soldering station with arduino, one of
| those chips, mosfet and a display module in 100 lines of
| code.
| com2kid wrote:
| When it comes to sensors and latency, you can use a
| 200mhz cortex m3 with a bespoke runtime you write in a
| couple weeks, or you can throw a real OS on top of
| multiple Ghz and cores in order to make up for the
| overhead of having a real OS.
|
| SRAM running at 200mhz with 1 cycle latency can perform
| what looks like miracles when placed side by side with
| DRAM running at LOLWTF Ghz that is stuck behind 100
| cycles of delay talking to the CPU that first tries to
| work its way through multiple steps of onboard cache and
| lookup buffers and all sorts of fun things.
|
| Embedded controls can do stupid amazing things with very
| little resources because all of a sudden you have removed
| a huge constant delay from all memory accesses.
|
| Throughput, however, they don't do so well on throughput.
| :-D
| jjoonathan wrote:
| Yep. DRAM latency is no joke -- ask your fancy 32 core
| 5GHz super-duper-scaler CPU to chase a linked list and it
| turns back into one of those old beige boxes with the
| turbo button, but with the turbo button not pressed!
| com2kid wrote:
| Linked lists and SRAM are so much fun.... All sorts of
| data structures that are cache and dram unfriendly are
| a-ok in embedded land.
| willis936 wrote:
| No and you don't want it either. In lieu of reliable
| hardware (PLCs), it is what is needed for virtual PLCs.
| camtarn wrote:
| Yep, that's a fair point: both the Raspberry Pis and the
| smart PLCs were indeed absolutely overkill for the project.
| However, they're what we know best, and minimising
| development time for a small prototype multi-site
| deployment was more of a concern than using expensive-ish
| hardware. For production, obviously we'd move to something
| less ridiculous.
| miketery wrote:
| Can some one in semi conductor industry explain which chips there
| is a shortage of and what kind of industrial capacity needs to
| come online to create supply?
|
| I'm familiar with CPU / GPUs (i.e. very expensive equipment,
| facilities, etc.), but curious if most chips will do with using
| cheaper and older generation as sufficient. For example power
| MOSFETs, microcontrollers, etc.
| pjc50 wrote:
| "Wafers", i.e. the capacity of fabs to process silicon into
| chips. This capacity is more or less fixed at time of fab
| construction; if you want to expand, you need to buy more wafer
| processing machines from ASML. There is a queue for these as
| well.
|
| The nastier problem is that most of the microcontrollers are
| probably on older wafer processes (e.g. 65nm), and nobody wants
| to build a _new_ old line.
|
| So it's up to the part suppliers to rework the design for e.g.
| 22nm if space becomes available on newer lines.
| kzrdude wrote:
| However, scaling down a custom chip to 22 nm requires a
| complete rework of the design, yes? At least any analog parts
| if I understand correctly.
| varjag wrote:
| All positions can be challenging now, to the point it's
| incorrect to call it _chip_ shortages. There are shortages of
| passives, FETs, diodes, connectors, ferrite cores, cables and
| so on. It 's not a technology issue. Welcome to post-globalism!
| Fargoan wrote:
| The wait times for the SP404 MK2 have been crazy. I ordered one
| last month and I wouldn't be surprised if I have to wait until
| next year before I get it
| KennyBlanken wrote:
| ""You're looking at 1000pcs of the STM32H7 microcontroller. The
| beating heart of our beloved S2400," they note. "I placed a panic
| order for these babies almost 2 years ago. Today, they finally
| arrived. It looks like we're a go on the next batch of S2400s!""
|
| ...and there's at least part of the problem. People panic-buying
| a year's worth of component supplies.
| varjag wrote:
| 1000pcs is a small order in normal times. Also buying a year's
| worth of supply is entirely normal. Time flies when you work
| with production of physical goods.
| mzs wrote:
| Yeah those seem like run of the mill parts easily replaceable
| with another board.
| CarVac wrote:
| The custom gamecube controller project I'm on
| (https://github.com/PhobGCC) has clobbered the supply of Teensy 4
| microcontroller boards.
|
| We already redesigned to switch away from Teensy 3.2, which had
| production suspended indefinitely due to parts shortages.
| lin83 wrote:
| It's difficult to overstate how bad things have been for the past
| 1.5yrs. Automotive and Industrial microcontrollers and components
| in particular are impossible to source. I have a friend at one of
| the big US semiconductor companies. His team exhausted their main
| competitor's evaluation boards stocks on various sites to strip
| them for components to populate their own boards (which are hand
| delivered to selected customers). For non-critical applications
| they're using grey market Chinese components and even Chinese
| clones of some of their less complicated parts. Even then it's
| far from enough.
|
| ASML, who makes some of the most advanced products on earth for
| semiconductor manufacturing, have apparently purchased washing
| machines to harvest components. [1]
|
| [1] https://hothardware.com/news/asml-ceo-claims-chip-
| shortage-f...
| murkt wrote:
| > ASML, who makes some of the most advanced products on earth
| for semiconductor manufacturing, have apparently purchased
| washing machines to harvest components.
|
| Your link doesn't support this claim. It says that other
| companies are doing that, not ASML itself.
| varjag wrote:
| 1.5 years? The shortages started back in 2016 and are only
| getting worse. By 2018 it was already positively challenging
| with new designs.
| tomc1985 wrote:
| I wonder, would this make analog synths more competitive?
|
| Like why do they even need DSP chips, might as well just run a
| VST softsynth with a MIDI keyboard
| SeanLuke wrote:
| Analog synths have tons of chips in them.
| bowsamic wrote:
| Not really there's a huge op amp shortage too
| leviathant wrote:
| >Like why do they even need DSP chips, might as well just run a
| VST softsynth with a MIDI keyboard
|
| When your analog synth has presets, it's because there's a DSP
| chip in there that's helping to record, store, and replay
| voltage values for the knobs and sliders and switches in the
| analog signal path. If your analog synthesizer has a sequencer,
| there's a pretty solid chance that's done on a chip. If your
| analog synthesizer has a modern modulation matrix, you need a
| DSP chip for that. If your analog synthesizer has a method for
| self-calibration, you need a DSP for that.
|
| The signal path stays analog in any of these situations, but
| the DSP helps you manufacture things that aren't feasible with
| simple components.
|
| There's a lot of cool stuff you can do with VSTs. There's a lot
| of weird-ass gain staging/overdrive stuff I can do with boxes
| on my desk that plug into each other, or even within a singular
| synthesizer, which cannot currently be replicated effectively
| with code. One day it'll catch up. Roland's ACB is a few years
| old now, but it's pretty good at mimicking 40 year old
| technology. It took a long time for a Windows machine to run an
| SNES emulator at a decent enough rate to play what was already
| at the time very old technology.
|
| I've got a mixing console from 1978 that I prefer to VSTs. The
| Poly Evolver Keyboard I have is as old as YouTube... nothing
| else sounds like it, there is no emulation of it, and I'm glad
| I don't need a 2005-era computer kicking around to keep it
| running.
|
| This is not to discount that there are amazing VSTs, and that
| physical controller options are amazing today (and amazingly
| inexpensive), but these are different options, not better
| options.
| dmicah wrote:
| While not DSP chips, analog synths will typically also include
| microcontrollers, for scanning a keyboard or front panel
| controls, receiving MIDI messages, and generating control
| voltages.
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