[HN Gopher] Alphabet Q2 FY2022 Earnings [pdf]
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       Alphabet Q2 FY2022 Earnings [pdf]
        
       Author : ra7
       Score  : 106 points
       Date   : 2022-07-26 20:05 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (abc.xyz)
 (TXT) w3m dump (abc.xyz)
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | Marginally better numbers than expected. Stock is up ~3% after
       | hours.
        
         | adam_arthur wrote:
         | Worse than expected by analysts, better than expected by
         | investors. It was technically a miss
        
           | robertlagrant wrote:
           | Analysts got it wrong again?
        
             | donalhunt wrote:
             | Alphabet are known for not providing any guidance to the
             | analysts so I would take that with a pinch of salt.
             | 
             | Consensus seems to be that the results could have been
             | worse. Some signals that large advertisers are pulling
             | spend in some areas. If that continues, you would expect Q3
             | earnings to be below the upward trajectory that Alphabet
             | have enjoyed for years.
        
       | danielmarkbruce wrote:
       | Crazy good numbers given the environment and their size.
        
       | gigatexal wrote:
       | Revenue grew 13% or 8B but operating income fell as did net
       | income. Yikes. Either that additional 30k in headcount really
       | took a toll or they are investing heavily in other areas. That or
       | acquisition costs are rising. (I'm still reading the PDF).
        
         | donalhunt wrote:
         | Capex spend is one area mentioned in the Investor Relations
         | call - primarily new datacenters, office fitouts and server
         | purchases.
         | 
         | Comparing q2 in 2021 and 2022 is difficult because the pandemic
         | boosted revenues in 2021 but capex spend was delayed. And in
         | 2022, some revenue didn't materialise due to uncertainty but
         | investments for the future are being made.
         | 
         | As usual with alphabet, look at the mukti-year trend. And don't
         | be surprised to see investment in bets that will pay off in 5+
         | years time.
        
         | gigatexal wrote:
         | Ahh pages 4 and 5 make more sense now. TAC went up 2B but also
         | costs of revenue as well.
        
           | gigatexal wrote:
           | Total costs and expenses 42,519 50,232 (2021-2022) cost of
           | revenue tracked more or less 1:1 with rise in revenue which
           | is why net income was the same. Hmmm.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | Ah but remember it's "hard" somehow to give google money. I read
       | it here on HN. No idea where these billions came from.
        
       | lifeisstillgood wrote:
       | Google: Total Rev: 70B, ads:57B, cloud 6B.
       | 
       | Amazon: Total rev: 116B Ads: 31B cloud:71B
       | 
       | It's reasonable to say that Google's biggest threat is Amazon's
       | ad business. And instagrams not far behind.
        
         | spiantino wrote:
         | Here are accurate numbers:
         | 
         | Google Q2: 70B, ads: 57B, cloud 6B. Net profit: $16B
         | 
         | Amazon Q1: 117B, ads: 8B, cloud 18B. Net profit: -$4B
        
         | jsnell wrote:
         | Your Amazon ads / AWS numbers look annual, the other numbers
         | quarterly. Just what kind of conclusion are we supposed to draw
         | from that?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | nym375 wrote:
         | I think you might be mixing quarterly and yearly numbers.
        
         | adam_arthur wrote:
         | Aren't Amazon ads just sellers prioritizing their listing on
         | the Amazon page? Seems totally different from the ad market for
         | Google
        
           | alecb wrote:
           | Amazon has a pretty developed video and display advertising
           | market for publishers called Unified Ad Marketplace; for our
           | business, it's typically in second behind AdX/Adsense for
           | revenue and impressions won. That said, I'm not seeing any
           | revenue breakout from Amazon that specifies how much this
           | side of the business makes.
        
           | xyzzyz wrote:
           | Aren't Google ads just businesses prioritizing their listings
           | on Google search page?
        
             | adam_arthur wrote:
             | Who will advertise a concert or any various services on
             | Amazon? Or a restaurant? A conference?
             | 
             | Very niche focus for Amazon vs broader set of customers for
             | Google ads. Seems totally different to me
        
               | kevinsundar wrote:
               | Ecommerce sellers have higher margins (gross margin 40%)
               | than the other services and businesses you mentioned. So
               | they have more money to spend on Ads.
               | 
               | Also Google competes with FB and has to split the
               | advertising pie for those other services and businesses.
               | Amazon owns basically the whole pie for the people who
               | want to advertise products.
        
               | adam_arthur wrote:
               | E-commerce has terrible margins
               | 
               | Amazon itself had negative operating margins for its
               | retail business last quarter.
               | 
               | Amazon retail: "Its U.S. segment recorded $206 million in
               | operating losses, while the international side lost $1.63
               | billion."
               | 
               | Single digit margins at best, once a market is
               | competitive.
               | 
               | Edit: You edited your above, but gross margin is
               | meaningless. It doesn't even include salaries for
               | employees or infrastructure costs. Net margins for retail
               | will always be slim, outside of specific first mover
               | advantage in some subsectors.
               | 
               | You think the Chinese companies selling $5 rubber
               | spatulas are making 40% margins? Lol, try 5% or less.
               | 
               | The theory that Amazon retail would grow revenues rapidly
               | and then eventually expand to high operating margins will
               | never come to fruition. Margins will be below 10% in
               | perpetuity
               | 
               | But sure, ignore all costs of running the business and
               | look at gross margins.
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | Amazon loses money on every sale, yet somehow they are
               | far pricier than ebay (which is profitable), and that is
               | far pricier than aliexpress.
               | 
               | A quick sample of like-for-like products shows that
               | typical sale+delivery price on amazon is 30% more than
               | aliexpress and 18% more than ebay.
               | 
               | I really don't see how you can charge 30% more than a
               | profit making competitor, sell in larger volume, yet make
               | a loss.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | kevinsundar wrote:
               | A quick search says 40% gross margins for e-commerce. So
               | Income - COGS. Which is pretty damn high. Most of these
               | sellers are selling cheap Chinese goods so I bet it's
               | even higher on Amazon.
               | 
               | And Amazon retail margins is way different and in no way
               | comparable to SELLER margins.
        
               | oezi wrote:
               | Give it 5 years (3?) and they might just sell many of
               | these. Concert tickets, restaurant bookings/take out
               | aren't so hard to imagine.
               | 
               | I think Amazon's ambition is endless.
        
             | stingrae wrote:
             | No. They are ads all over the internet through AdSense.
        
         | next_xibalba wrote:
         | Huh? Isn't the ecomm component of Amazon's "Total Rev" several
         | hundred billion?
        
         | BlackJack wrote:
         | Amazon Ads 31B is an annual figure. Last quarter it was ~8B.
         | Same thing with cloud; AWS pulled ~18B last quarter.
         | 
         | Amazon Ads is a legit threat to Google, especially with product
         | searches. Instagram struggles to monetize commercial queries to
         | the same degree as Goog/Amzn.
        
         | abledon wrote:
         | Amazon has PrimeVideo, BlueOrigin, Trucking Fleets etc... so
         | diverse. What is google doing with all the cash its sitting on?
         | Is Waymo their only bet? They definitely aren't innovating with
         | youtube, 3rd rate copycat features like 'shorts' etc... poor
         | livestreaming/chat design. Maybe they'll just end up buying
         | rocketlab for their space project ...
        
           | rohitnair wrote:
           | Blue Origin is not part of Amazon.
        
             | abledon wrote:
             | Ok technically yes, but their IP is probably shared.
             | 
             | For instance, Elon Musk has mentioned the Materials Science
             | team he has works for all 3 companies
             | Tesla,SpaceX,BoringCompany etc...
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | There are close Google <=> SpaceX links too... The
               | Starlink backbone network uses Google Cloud features that
               | appear custom built/aren't available even to big
               | customers. Nearly all Tesla tech seems built on top of
               | Google tech - for example they use various private maps
               | API's for the in-car map display. And everything is built
               | on top of protocol buffers, google's in-house
               | RPC/serialization format.
        
               | donalhunt wrote:
               | Protocol buffers have been public for 10+ years (since
               | 2008 according to Wikipedia). Given the mobility between
               | tech companies, it's hardly surprising that the same
               | ideas / solutions are reused across companies.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | chickenpotpie wrote:
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alphabet_Inc#Structure
        
           | Foe wrote:
           | They're spending it on feeding their engineers with free food
           | and massages.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | _Algernon_ wrote:
           | Went over the list of new (consumer facing) products from
           | Google from the last decade that actually got somewhere and
           | concluded that Google Cast and Chromebooks are close to the
           | only one (I may have missed some, but there can't be many).
           | Nothing that compares to Gmail, search, etc.
           | 
           | Additionally, their existing services are getting worse and
           | worse. YouTube is a mess, requiring at least an ad-blocker,
           | and preferably also an extension like Unhook[1] . Google
           | search requires a site blocker to prevent ads and spam
           | domains from dominating the results.
           | 
           | Instead of furthering the development of good products it
           | appears that the culture is focusing on creating new products
           | to get a promotion just to let it die before it gains
           | momentum (see https://killedbygoogle.com/).
           | 
           | If Google is still part of the FAANG (or is it MAANG now)
           | accronym at the end of the decade I'll eat my top hat (I
           | don't have one but I'll buy one just for this).
           | 
           | [1]: https://unhook.app/
        
             | pclmulqdq wrote:
             | To be fair, it looks like Meta and Netflix are in a lot of
             | trouble too.
        
               | HeyItsMatt wrote:
               | Netflix has always been in trouble and has never been
               | cashflow positive once they started making content.
               | Problem is now we're in a recession and the free money
               | has run out. Swimming naked when the tide goes out and
               | all that...
        
             | HeyItsMatt wrote:
             | Google has lacked product leadership since Sergey Brin and
             | Larry Page left. Since the early-2010's Google has suffered
             | enormous management bloat and exclusively taken a quarterly
             | profit focus.
             | 
             | Always wondered why Larry and Sergey ran for the exits, I
             | assume they had their kids threatened by a TLA and quietly
             | cashed out. I assume it has something to do with the
             | Snowden revelations that their inter-datacenter links were
             | unencrypted on purpose.
        
           | open1414 wrote:
           | https://www.vox.com/new-
           | money/2017/4/19/15357290/juicero-400...
        
             | [deleted]
        
       | arberx wrote:
       | The earnings call will be interesting.
        
         | chollida1 wrote:
         | What specifically about this particular earnings call will be
         | interesting? I can't see anything of note that hasn't happened
         | 20x before.
        
           | arberx wrote:
           | Tiktok threat, current macro conditions, future quarter
           | expectations, layoffs...so many things
        
             | chollida1 wrote:
             | I mean, sure but those are run of the mill things that can
             | be said for almost every earnings call.
        
               | arberx wrote:
               | Okay, I just said it would be interesting...it can be run
               | of the mill + be interesting...
        
       | gok wrote:
       | Is the goal that Google Cloud just loses money forever?
        
         | abledon wrote:
         | by 2025 they will use a 3rd color other than white and blue for
         | their 'material design' cloud console.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | spaceman_2020 wrote:
       | Over the last few years, I've increasingly had to append
       | site:reddit.com before any search query if I want some actual
       | information.
       | 
       | Product reviews on Google are garbage, but everyone knows that
       | already. What really disappointed me is searching for any
       | slightly complex medical condition. Most of the top results are
       | just repetitive, generic advice from "trusted" names like Webmd.
       | Not helpful at all.
        
         | muro wrote:
         | https://youtu.be/NT7_SxJ3oSI
         | 
         | The ending has the point
        
           | quux wrote:
           | FWIW my WaySus 22 has been great
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | greatpostman wrote:
       | Nearly every negative google comment is downvoted
        
         | ushakov wrote:
         | on HN this is usually the other way around
         | 
         | at least as far i can remember
        
           | greatpostman wrote:
           | Same, I'm surprised
        
         | MegaButts wrote:
         | This always happens when there's a popular post about big tech
         | on HN. Google is a big company with lots of employees and lots
         | of investors and HN is no longer a tiny corner of the internet.
         | Just ignore the astroturfing and look for the signal in the
         | noise.
        
         | summerlight wrote:
         | Among three most downvoted comments, one comment is very (and
         | likely intentionally) misleading and the rests are
         | uninteresting, repetitive sarcasm which deteriorates the signal
         | to noise ratio. This might be very surprising conclusion to
         | some of ordinary HN audiences, but could there be any realistic
         | possibilities of those comment deserving some downvotes?
        
       | chollida1 wrote:
       | Numbers:
       | 
       | - Q1 EPS $1.21 vs EST $1.32
       | 
       | - Q2 Rev. of $70B vs est of $70B
       | 
       | - Ad Rev. $56.3B vs EST of $56B, grew 12% on the year, good job!!
       | but growth is way down from last year.
       | 
       | - this add revenue is good, which indicates they aren't really
       | affected by the Iphone privacy changes like META is.
       | 
       | - operating margin came in at estimates
       | 
       | - cloud lost $858M which is higher than expected
       | 
       | - cloud Rev was 6.2B which is about what was expected
       | 
       | - Other Bets lost $1.7B, which is small enough no one will care
       | 
       | - other best revenue is $190M
       | 
       | - stock is down about 24%, wich is a beta of almost 1, maybe
       | googles growth is done and its becoming a typical old boring
       | stock that just makes money now
       | 
       | To Watch:
       | 
       | - all advertising is slowing, Twitter, Snap and Pins are all
       | below their IPO price and META is down big, whatch for GOOG
       | advertising, though normally you'd expect search advertising to
       | be more resistant
       | 
       | - watch youtube add numbers, it really seems like they are
       | playing alot more adds, normally I see 2 before each video now
       | 
       | - will google cloud start to approach the big 2 of azure and aws
       | 
       | - will they talk about hiring or layoffs
       | 
       | Notes:
       | 
       | - add revenue held up ok, compared to peers
       | 
       | - other bets continues to not matter, at some point waymo has to
       | put up or get shut down
       | 
       | - will cash on hand grow or shrink? Looks like its down by about
       | $10B
       | 
       | - cloud unit disappoints with revenue
       | 
       | - shares relatively flat after hours( up maybe 2%), probably a
       | good trade to buy their peers now(snap, pins, etc, meta)
       | 
       | - whoever runs Google cloud must have blackmail material on
       | Pichai, AWS and MSFT run big profitable operating margins and
       | google cloud is losing money, this is something they should be
       | good at, but they are somehow the only one that has figure dout
       | how to lose money on what is a cash cow for the big 2.
       | 
       | What is going on with their cloud offering??
       | 
       | - zero hedge tweet that they've repurchased $15B of stock
        
         | hrpnk wrote:
         | > - this add revenue is good, which indicates they aren't
         | really affected by the Iphone privacy changes like META is.
         | 
         | ad density would be an interesting figure. YouTube is
         | unwatchable with ads turned on.
        
         | shawabawa3 wrote:
         | > stock is down about 24%
         | 
         | I thought you meant it had massively crashed on this earnings
         | 
         | It's down ~24% YTD (along with basically every other stock).
         | 
         | Up ~2% after hours on this earnings report
        
         | oneoff786 wrote:
         | Why is cloud a loss for Google but a cash cow for Amazon?
        
           | danielmarkbruce wrote:
           | A lot of the cost structure is ~fixed (and high). It's pretty
           | much the ultimate scale game.
        
           | gerbler wrote:
           | Lots of capex
        
           | Kstarek wrote:
           | Because Google is playing catch up and needs to pay higher
           | salaries to poach from MSFT and AMZN and also pay much more
           | for infra than what Amazon paid for theirs initially.
        
             | fdgsdfogijq wrote:
             | Google has been "playing catch up" for a decade now. They
             | also pay less than Amazon (source levels.fyi)
        
               | arebop wrote:
               | Google does not pay less than Amazon (source levels.fyi h
               | ttps://www.levels.fyi/?compare=Amazon,Google,Salesforce&t
               | ra...).
               | 
               | I have heard people claim that Amazon pays more and by
               | that they mean that if you hold your Amazon stock until
               | vesting, it appreciates so much that it ends up being
               | worth more than whatever the Google grant would have been
               | worth. But then you have to ask if the relative
               | performance of the stocks will remain stable over time
               | despite having changed recently, and factor in
               | differences in employee churn and so on.
        
               | fdgsdfogijq wrote:
               | They pay about 100,000 less. Its widely known, not sure
               | why you are arguing this. Amazon also raised their
               | paybands massively, so a blanket comparison doesnt
               | reflect reality. Look at individual data over the last
               | year or so. Google also downlevels, so comparing levels
               | makes less sense, compare years of experience instead
        
               | mandeepj wrote:
               | > Amazon also raised their paybands massively
               | 
               | that $350k base limit is top of the band, not everyone
               | walking inside the door is going to get that. A friend of
               | mind got an offer from AWS about a month ago, his base
               | was offered $180k
        
               | jnwatson wrote:
               | Back last July, AWS couldn't come close to what Meta or
               | Google could offer when I was looking.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | scottyah wrote:
               | From what I hear they paw software engineers less, but
               | find it harder to attract sales personnel, as it's easier
               | to sell the industry leader (IBM, Oracle vs ???). No
               | sources, just some posts a few months ago.
        
             | ra7 wrote:
             | What does Google still need to catch up on in cloud?
             | Building products/services? Sales? AFAIK, they have
             | comparable cloud services to most AWS/Azure offerings.
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | Mostly I think it's just acquiring customers. The big
               | cloud providers go to great lengths to lock their
               | customers in, so convincing them to switch is hard.
               | Requires a much better product which seems pretty much
               | impossible against aws and azure or a much cheaper price.
        
               | bamboozled wrote:
               | Trust for one thing. They just cut off customers services
               | with line of recourse. Also shut down products with
               | little warning.
        
               | ra7 wrote:
               | I don't think shutting down products applies to GCP
               | services. Even if it did, it doesn't explain the $858M
               | loss. They are spending big on something to "catch up",
               | I'm just not sure what it is.
        
               | RandomBK wrote:
               | IIRC it's mostly incentives for large companies to jump
               | ship
        
               | ushakov wrote:
               | > shutting down products applies to GCP services
               | 
               | they regularly deprecate old API versions in favour of
               | new ones, which are not backwards compatible and usually
               | more expensive
               | 
               | any time Google Cloud APIs change you have to update your
               | code
               | 
               | and they break stuff, introduce bugs more often that
               | you'd expect and prioritize new features over fixes (see
               | bugtracker for confirmation)
               | 
               | this is why i'm never again touching GCP
        
           | lucasbm wrote:
           | Probably because Amazon is better at retail sales. For larger
           | companies both Amazon and Google give an enormous amount of
           | incentives to secure the accounts, so they have lower
           | margins. Where they thrive is with smaller and medium
           | businesses. Amazon is better at the market of selling to the
           | average joe.
        
             | the_duke wrote:
             | Microsoft is also good at upselling Azure through existing
             | customer relationships, and almost every company is a
             | Microsoft customer.
             | 
             | Sales also just isn't in Googles DNA.
             | 
             | It's an uphill battle for Google.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | AWS was actually able to add enterprise sales after
               | realizing it needed to. Not clearly Google has done
               | _nearly_ as good a job.
        
               | HeyItsMatt wrote:
               | Google has a cash cow and isn't hungry. Their employees
               | can half-arse the rest of their business and still be
               | confident they'll get paid at the end of the week.
               | Amazon's retail arm bled when AWS was started, and still
               | bleeds. Success is a matter of urgency.
        
           | jjtheblunt wrote:
           | AWS early mover advantage?
        
           | loeg wrote:
           | Because Google is absolutely awful at Cloud and they have to
           | subsidize heavily to attract customers.
        
             | echelon wrote:
             | Their cloud platform is fantastic if you're trying to stay
             | on vanilla k8s and standard managed DBs without getting
             | into vendor lock-in territory.
             | 
             | Their management UI is an order of magnitude better than
             | AWS garbage. It's clean, informational, and easily
             | navigable.
             | 
             | Spanner great, but I'm not using it for my startup.
        
         | Kstarek wrote:
         | I don't think Waymo will contribute meaningfully to the bottom
         | line for at least another 3/4 years, however people had the
         | same mentality of "put up or get shut down" regarding YouTube a
         | few years ago, and we all know how that turned out. That said,
         | I'm still very bullish on both the stock and Waymo
         | specifically.
        
           | bushbaba wrote:
           | Waymo won't contribute meaningfully for at least 2 decades.
           | Bottom line = profit. Top line = revenue.
        
           | ceeplusplus wrote:
           | Adding more ads and bringing down video serving costs are
           | tangible, achievable goals. Solving self driving is not. I
           | honestly don't think Google has the right culture to deliver
           | either. There's no hunger to win there.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | I'm not sure self driving is a matter of Google culture.
             | It's just become pretty evident that, while maybe some
             | limited fully self-driving use cases will become viable in
             | the next decade or so, this idea that you can have your
             | personal chauffeur whisk you door to door even in an urban
             | environment perhaps in your lifetime so you never need to
             | own a car is not happening. And that really disappoints
             | some people who bought into the idea.
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | I certainly hope AGI happens in my lifetime.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | 1. I doubt it
               | 
               | 2. Be careful what you wish for
        
         | dmitriid wrote:
         | Main numbers are these:
         | 
         | --- start quote ---
         | 
         | - Q2 Rev. of $70B vs est of $70B
         | 
         | - Ad Rev. $56.3B
         | 
         | --- end quote ---
         | 
         | 80% of revenue is advertising. That's all you need to know
         | about the company's direction and incentives.
        
           | azinman2 wrote:
           | It's their cash cow. Why would they stop?
           | 
           | But that 20% isn't advertising is much better for Alphabet
           | than compared to 10 years ago. Waymo is the next big bet.
        
             | dmitriid wrote:
             | Waymo isn't a bet. At least, isn't a bet that is projected
             | to be even remotely cash positive, much less having a
             | significant percentage in Alphabet's revenue, in any
             | foreseeable future.
        
               | azinman2 wrote:
               | That's not how I heard it was viewed internally a few
               | year ago.
        
               | DannyBee wrote:
               | By who?
        
               | azinman2 wrote:
               | Nothing that's public.
        
           | verdverm wrote:
           | I would submit that knowing the trend of ad revs as a
           | percentage of the whole would tell you more than a single
           | snapshot, which has no direction itself.
        
           | cromwellian wrote:
           | That's down from 97%+, the direction is more important than
           | the current number since the change over time indicates how
           | the company is evolving and it is obviously moving towards
           | diversification.
        
             | dmitriid wrote:
             | It has been hovering around 80% for a few years now, hasn't
             | it?
        
         | sidibe wrote:
         | > at some point waymo has to put up or get shut down
         | 
         | obviously noone is expecting significant revenue there last
         | quarter or any near future ones so it's pretty irrelevant how
         | they do on quarterly reports. It's been over a decade and they
         | seem to now be making serious progress. That "some point" isn't
         | going to be this quarter or next quarter or sneak up by
         | surprise on anybody
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | That sounds like the sorts of results that tend to hammer a
         | company. Some barely beats on low expectations. A bunch of
         | expectations barely or misses.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | compiler-guy wrote:
       | Google added nearly 30k employees in the prior year.
       | 
       | No way that amount of growth is sustainable. I doubt even half of
       | those employees are up to speed sufficiently to add value to the
       | company. Just absorbing that many people means scores of new
       | teams, hundreds of new managers, and mountains of additional
       | hardware.
       | 
       | I'm sure they are seeing this in the costs.
        
         | Aethella wrote:
         | Every employee they add also takes potential talent away from
         | adding value to a start-up or competitor trying to catch-up.
         | It's one way to protect your monopoly when there is a shortage
         | of skilled labor.
        
           | gigatexal wrote:
           | This is how I think as well.
        
             | jmathai wrote:
             | The suggestion here being that hiring is a strategic play
             | by Google to prevent startups from forming?
             | 
             | I think a much better play is to let the startups form at
             | no cost to you and buy them if/when they show signs of
             | success.
        
               | gigatexal wrote:
               | Sure that's viable but also hiring top talent means that
               | talent can't join Meta (sic) or Microsoft or Apple etc.
               | keep the brain trust full and add to your advantage.
        
           | SilverBirch wrote:
           | I think this is basically wrong. One thing lots of companies
           | do during a recession is they try to get rid of the worst 10%
           | of their employees. Instead they lose the top 8% and the
           | bottom 1% and a random 1%- the top 8% see the bad news, have
           | options and leave, the bottom 1% are obviously bad and get
           | let go, and the other 1% are just unlucky becuase the company
           | doesn't really have a clue who is good.
           | 
           | This the same thing for trying to corner the smartest
           | engineers in the market. You're not going to corner the
           | smartest engineers, the smartest are going to go off and work
           | on interesting meaningful projects. But what you will get is
           | a lot of employees who are smart, not that effective but very
           | happy for you to pay them not to work anywhere else.
           | 
           | So even if the intention is to corner the top talent, they're
           | not going to succeed because that's not what motivates most
           | decent engineers. But also, the pool of talent is so vast
           | that they'd bankrupt the company with that pay roll. Oh and
           | the non-compete situation in California means even if you do
           | manage to hire someone, if they do have a good idea they're
           | just going to quit and build it - safe with a nest egg you
           | helped them build.
        
           | londons_explore wrote:
           | A common route for people is to join a big tech company for a
           | few years, then quit and do a startup using the skills + cash
           | gained...
        
         | jeffdn wrote:
         | That's ~575 new employees per week (probably more, making up
         | for turnover)! Absolutely wild.
        
         | tmp_anon_22 wrote:
         | > hundreds of new managers
         | 
         |  _Thousands_ of new managers. Think about that.
        
           | lifeisstillgood wrote:
           | what does a manager actually do in a software business these
           | days?
        
             | adam_arthur wrote:
             | Depends how competent the people they manage are. Anywhere
             | from invasive micromanager, to "do little" figurehead that
             | conveys information.
             | 
             | The best people don't need to be managed really, just
             | alignment of direction, but there are far too few of them
             | to depend on that at scale
        
             | hiddencost wrote:
             | At Google? Cross org coordination, identifying and
             | prioritizing opportunities, work trading with other teams
             | (you do this and I'll do that), communicating why the
             | team's work matters to mid management that has no idea,
             | helping engineers avoid pitfalls, helping engineers craft
             | project portfolios and a narrative for promotion. Helping
             | engineers develop the right skills to succeed at Google.
        
               | tmp_anon_22 wrote:
               | They create value [1].
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYvhC_RdIwQ
        
             | summerlight wrote:
             | Mostly glueing people around. Sounds like a mediocre job,
             | it's as important as writing glue code. Not interesting,
             | but most of the code written nowaway are glue code...
        
           | Sir_Liigmaz wrote:
        
         | xhkkffbf wrote:
         | But don't worry. They've paused hiring for two full weeks!
        
         | ceeplusplus wrote:
         | Google funds a huge number of teams internally that (in my
         | opinion) don't do anything that contributes to the top line or
         | bottom line or the company's image.
         | 
         | Not only that, but Google is known for being a "chill" place to
         | work - good WLB, low pressure to deliver, very low chance of
         | PIP. That attracts the wrong kind of employee. When you start
         | seeing TikToks of people who work at Google documenting their
         | life rather than delivering results, that's when you know the
         | company's standards are too low.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | ProAm wrote:
         | Think about all the chat apps we'll have in a year...
        
         | chickenpotpie wrote:
         | Not really that crazy when you have 174,000 employees. A 20%
         | increase in employees isn't really that high when you also have
         | a 13% increase in revenue.
        
           | compiler-guy wrote:
           | Procuring 30,000 laptops is quite different than procuring
           | 200 laptops. The logistics for 20% growth are materially
           | different for a 100,000 person company vs a 1,000 person
           | company.
        
         | [deleted]
        
           | [deleted]
        
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