[HN Gopher] The Merge is approaching, and comes with changes to ...
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       The Merge is approaching, and comes with changes to Ethereum
        
       Author : kristianpaul
       Score  : 77 points
       Date   : 2022-08-20 20:51 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ethereum.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ethereum.org)
        
       | fizzynut wrote:
       | Given that the merge reduces the electricity cost for new
       | Ethereum by ~1000x, won't the price just tank in a race to the
       | bottom?
        
         | candiddevmike wrote:
         | In theory the price of any cryptocurrency is close to $0 as
         | they are all fundamentally swappable, especially when used as a
         | means of moving fiat between two parties.
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | The supply of ETH is only related to electricity when it's
         | possible to mine it with electricity. Otherwise, what keeps the
         | price of crypto up is people competing to get currency for uses
         | like remittance. Since sending money to another country using a
         | cryptocurrency ties up an amount of currency for a period of
         | time, users have to compete for the available tokens in order
         | to exchange with them.
        
           | fizzynut wrote:
           | That's my point though, after the merge the proof of stake
           | nodes are earning a lot of ETH for a fraction of the previous
           | cost, the only way price should stay stable is if everyone
           | with a stake agrees not to undercut each other.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | > _earning a lot of ETH for a fraction of the previous
             | cost_
             | 
             | That will only be true if mining is a significant
             | contributor to the availability of ETH. Instead, I think
             | that most ETH comes from sellers of existing tokens rather
             | than miners.
        
         | hackernudes wrote:
         | Is someone out there buying ETH because of the power that went
         | in to mining it? It's more about supply and demand, I think.
         | The supply of ETH does change after the merge, but from what I
         | understand there will be less generated than before.
         | 
         | All the tokens and contracts that use Ethereum will still need
         | to pay gas fees and now instead of miners earning ETH, stakers
         | will.
        
           | fizzynut wrote:
           | Those with a "stake" of ETH will be gaining $xxxx of ETH for
           | a cost of $x, so why would you not sell for a giant profit?
        
             | latchkey wrote:
             | Taxes
        
         | datalopers wrote:
         | This seems plausible as the prices historically for both eth
         | and btc have followed the cost to mine. A significant portion
         | of the crypto world is directly propped up by miners in an
         | effort to drum up demand.
         | 
         | Things will change monumentally so it'll be very interesting to
         | see what does happen.
        
       | seydor wrote:
        
         | aqme28 wrote:
         | What are you talking about?
        
         | WFHRenaissance wrote:
         | Acronym could be better, but not sure what the rest of your
         | comment is getting at.
        
       | WFHRenaissance wrote:
       | Ethereum in its current state is using proof-of-work (PoW) to
       | ensure consensus amongst the thousands of nodes in the network.
       | While PoW is reliable and secure, it is also extremely energy
       | intensive. To produce each block on the network participants are
       | required to use powerful and energy-hungry GPUs to solve a
       | complex mathematical problem.
       | 
       | Alternatively, proof-of-stake (PoS) guarantees the security of
       | the network in a different way. In PoS, anyone with 32 ETH can
       | deposit that ETH to become a validator, a node that participates
       | in the network's consensus algorithm. Finalizing a block requires
       | 2/3 of all active validators to sign off on it. Should a
       | malicious actor try to tamper with the underlying protocol by
       | using a large number of validators to revert a finalized block
       | (the equivalent of a "51% attack" in PoW) their funds are slashed
       | -- meaning they lose a portion of their staked ETH. This makes
       | attacks extremely expensive; it would be like a PoW system where
       | if you use your mining hardware to attack the network then your
       | hardware catches fire and is destroyed.
       | 
       | PoS does not require the same energy-intensive hardware as PoW.
       | Any relatively recent consumer hardware should be capable of
       | running the software required to operate a 32 ETH staking node.
       | If you deposit more than 32 ETH, you will be assigned multiple
       | "validator slots" by the protocol, but you will still be able to
       | run them from a single computer, though hardware requirements go
       | up the more you stake. Most estimates put the expected energy
       | savings from the switch to PoS to be around 99%.
       | 
       | If you have any additional questions please let me know!
        
         | sprkwd wrote:
         | I'm literally an idiot. Make this sense for me.
        
         | alchemist1e9 wrote:
         | > If you deposit more than 32 ETH, you will be assigned
         | multiple "validator slots" by the protocol, but you will still
         | be able to run them from a single computer, though hardware
         | requirements go up the more you stake.
         | 
         | Is there a good place to read more about this hardware
         | requirements as a function of validator slots? A concern in my
         | mind with PoS is what is the incentive to expand the physical
         | hardware footprint of the network. I understand this implies
         | more energy usage, however it is a requirement for a
         | decentralized, distributed, and resilient system, otherwise it
         | can very easily be physically attacked if the footprint becomes
         | overly concentrated with a few very powerful nodes.
         | 
         | Unless the hardware requirements are a convex function of total
         | staked then if me and you both want to stake we will see the
         | hardware and network/bandwidth costs as something we could
         | share, which if everyone calculates the same, the network will
         | physically shrink.
        
           | pa7x1 wrote:
           | The HW requirements increase very very minimally.
           | 
           | See this response on reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/ethstak
           | er/comments/nk9qzt/multiple_...
        
         | mondoveneziano wrote:
         | > required to use powerful and energy-hungry GPUs to solve a
         | complex mathematical problem.
         | 
         | No mathematical problem is getting "solved".
         | 
         | It is much more akin to playing the lottery: Entirely random
         | numbers are being tried out, by sending them through an energy-
         | intensive algorithm (being energy-intensive is the algorithm's
         | only purpose in proof-of-work), until what comes out is less
         | than another number. That other number is chosen according to
         | the desired "difficulty", it has no significance beyond that.
         | 
         | The algorithm is literally meant to spend energy, i.e. the
         | outcome of the computation has no meaning by itself. This also
         | means that proof-of-work cryptocurrencies _actively counteract_
         | any advances to make the computation more efficient: The
         | "difficulty" will just be adjusted up until the efficiency gain
         | is canceled out. Proof-of-work cryptocurrencies are inefficient
         | by design.
        
           | Banana699 wrote:
           | This is a lot of words to say that PoW involves an inverse-
           | hash problem being solved. Inverse-hash is a mathematical
           | problem. Finding the nonce is solving it.
        
             | mondoveneziano wrote:
             | I was explaining in layman's terms.
        
               | khazhoux wrote:
               | Layman's explanation: POW works by solving a complex
               | mathematical problem. :-)
        
           | WFHRenaissance wrote:
           | Eh, a mathematical puzzle is being solved via brute-force. My
           | intent was to explain briefly that the problem/puzzle is by
           | nature computationally-intensive to the extent that brute-
           | force is the most efficient way to solve/complete it.
        
         | wavefunction wrote:
         | I am sure staking pools will be available to people with less
         | than 32 ETH
        
           | 1123581321 wrote:
           | They are, and there seems to be a drive by legitimate actors
           | to build them up. For example, Coinbase is building theirs by
           | offering up to $50 ($10 every $100 worth) in exchange for
           | initial staking of Eth.
        
           | fullsend wrote:
           | They already are. The Merge refers to the fact that the PoS
           | chain has been running parallel to the main chain for one
           | year now. It has been thoroughly tested live and so now will
           | be merged back into the main chain like a branch of a git
           | repo.
        
             | p4bl0 wrote:
             | How can two chains be merged if one is a fork of the other
             | without having instances of double spending? With source
             | code in Git you can manually pick which version of each
             | line you want in the merged result, but here it's not
             | possible to do that if services or merch have been
             | exchanged with coins. Except if you're fine with having to
             | deal forever with coins and merged-from-the-fork coins on
             | the eth blockchain?
        
               | mcmeowerson wrote:
               | As far as I understand it both forks have the same
               | ledger, its only the transaction validation method thats
               | changing. The PoS fork is mirroring all of the PoW
               | transactions so no double spending or extra coins.
        
           | dsimmons wrote:
           | Some of the better known ones are Lido and RocketPool.
        
         | uncletammy wrote:
         | Care to objectively articulate the arguments against switching
         | to proof-of-stake? Why is it controversial?
        
           | rglullis wrote:
           | It's only controversial in the minds of purists/"maximalists"
           | who are too invested in BTC. Their arguments would be
           | something like:
           | 
           | - PoS is not "decentralized" nor "democratic", because it
           | means that only those with capital can participate in the
           | network consensus building. This is "technically correct",
           | but (a) it ignores that existing PoW also require _massive_
           | amounts of capital to deploy mining facilities and (b) it is
           | not democratic because only those with access to cheap
           | electricity will profit from being a miner.
           | 
           | - PoS implies that those staking their crypto are "investing"
           | with their tokens, which would make the token a "security"
           | and not a "currency". This distinction could make it easy for
           | the SEC and governments to intervene and create regulation
           | that would require stakers to only participate if they
           | implement changes at the protocol level. E.g, it could happen
           | that a staker would reject to validate any block containing
           | transactions to smart contracts that got sanctioned. This is
           | a more real concern, if you think about all the big players
           | (read, centralized exchanges) who are staking ETH on behalf
           | of their customers and therefore will have non-negligible
           | control over the network. In this case, the community
           | expectation is that (a) users of staked ETH pull out of the
           | exchanges and run their own validators and (b) the exchanges
           | realize that they will be shooting themselves in the foot,
           | and therefore go on to fight whatever legislation that pushes
           | on that type of control/censorship at the protocol level.
        
         | rakoo wrote:
         | Thanks for the explanation! I have a few questions:
         | 
         | - how does the punishment work ? Do all nodes see that a
         | malicious actor changed the chain and write the bad ideas in
         | some ledger meaning "these nodes just lost X ETH" ?
         | 
         | - But if the malicious actor owns 2/3 of validators, what does
         | he care what other nodes do ? They effectively control what
         | block is accepted
         | 
         | - is there an advantage to run more than one validator, if you
         | have the money (EDIT: and you don't want to attack the
         | network)? Basically, does having more money gives you more
         | (power, control, anything) ?
        
           | WFHRenaissance wrote:
           | 1. Punishment mechanisms here are kind of complicated, but in
           | short, you're punished for mainly 2 reasons: being an offline
           | validator, or for an attestation violating.
           | 
           | Slashers are entities that enforce the two above rules. If a
           | slasher determines that you're node is down, or that you're
           | committing an attestation violation (i.e. that you're signing
           | more than one attestation in a given epoch mainly). The
           | slasher actually does not get rewarded here. The block
           | proposer who takes the broadcasted slashing and and adds a
           | proof of it to their block proposition, and get what's called
           | a whistleblower reward. Slashing is not meant to profitable,
           | and the whistleblower reward is quite small. We don't need a
           | million slashers, in fact, we could operate with just one...
           | expect the Eth Foundation to run them, among other large
           | players who can spare the resources.
           | 
           | Owning 2/3 of nodes economically is kind of silly. You
           | essentially just 51% the network, and everyone else leaves.
           | You're then stuck with a worthless personal currency. Have
           | fun!
           | 
           | More than one validator means more validator rewards, and a
           | bit more "power" in that you're a larger component of the
           | general validation network.
        
           | entrep wrote:
           | > - But if the malicious actor owns 2/3 of validators, what
           | does he care what other nodes do ? They effectively control
           | what block is accepted
           | 
           | As I understand it, anyone who owns that amount of ETH would
           | probably be interested in contributing to the trust of the
           | Ethereum blockchain.
        
             | boosteri wrote:
             | Why would it need to be a significant amount of ETH? Could
             | someone coordinate an attack on validator nodes, making
             | themselves 67%+ temporarily?
        
             | yunohn wrote:
             | Sure, but that wasn't the question. How does the punishment
             | play out, assuming they're acting in bad faith?
        
               | rglullis wrote:
               | If you have 2/3 of the validators, there is no way that
               | you can be punished. You will effectively be able to
               | produce the blocks and tell the network that they are
               | valid.
               | 
               | If you don't have that, the most that you can do is to
               | attack the network by proposing bad blocks to slow down
               | block production. Anytime that a (selected) validator
               | proposes a bad block, the other validators that catch
               | your mistake will snitch on you (through attestations)
               | and the validator will get their stake funds slashed. The
               | more your funds are slashed, the less of a chance you
               | will have to be proposing new blocks in the future.
        
             | falcolas wrote:
             | What reason would anyone have to believe in their
             | benevolence? It would be safer to believe in and use their
             | greed and self preservation.
        
               | WFHRenaissance wrote:
               | No one would use a network with this level of
               | centralization, or at least, it would be unwise to.
        
       | bluquark wrote:
       | This reminds me of the nerve-biting period up to the James Webb
       | launch. The devs put off this transition for so many years trying
       | to plan for every contingency, but we still can't be certain they
       | didn't miss a crucial flaw.
       | 
       | In a system where the only thing holding back malicious actors is
       | technical constraints, it only takes one bug or one misaligned
       | incentive for a vicious cycle to take down the entire Ethereum
       | ecosystem. An exploitable detail in the PRNG used to select the
       | validators, for instance.
       | 
       | And like a space telescope, there is no opportunity to
       | realistically experiment with the change beforehand, nor an easy
       | way to make adjustments after launch.
        
         | latchkey wrote:
         | It is order of magnitude easier for them to make changes after
         | launch since the code and developers are here on earth and not
         | floating in space.
        
       | sktrdie wrote:
       | I don't get proof of stake. What's stopping anyone from
       | presenting a new chain made up of thousands of fake transactions?
       | And why wouldn't such chain be accepted by the network? Is it
       | just "checkpoints" hardcoded in the software that don't allow
       | this?
        
         | pkulak wrote:
         | Nothing. But nothing moves forward without consensus. So you'd
         | need 51% of the network to agree with your made up chain, which
         | would mean controlling about $100 billion in Eth. And then
         | you've managed to destroy a network that you have $100 billion
         | wrapped up in... so, good job? And if you try with less than
         | 51% and the rest of the network slaps you down, you lose your
         | stake (or some portion of it).
        
         | bhaak wrote:
         | All the nodes that have been online long enough will know that
         | the fake chain is fake. Because it doesn't match the state that
         | they have been observing all along.
         | 
         | So as long as you have no extended downtime, your nodes know
         | what the right chain has to look like. Ethereum dynamically
         | adds checkpoints so that block reorgs can't reach too far into
         | the past but that is mostly a convenience function as it alone
         | couldn't solve this issue.
         | 
         | Now, there is a problem if you are a new participant. Then you
         | can't decide which chain is the right one. You could observe
         | for a while and choose the one that has more validators but in
         | theory, there's the possibility that there's a contentious hard
         | fork going on.
         | 
         | In this case you need to get the information which chain is the
         | right one from outside sources. E.g. like your preferred
         | exchange or the official subreddit.
         | 
         | This is the most glaring difference between POS and POW. With
         | POW, you don't need any outside information as you can just
         | verify which chain needed more work to be created and this is
         | by definition the correct one.
         | 
         | POW leverages physics to be completely self contained for the
         | price of energy consumption.
        
         | samkon wrote:
         | Any node that did this would have their stake slashed by the
         | rest of the network, because it would be easy to prove that the
         | chain was invalid. The network finalizes the blocks that are
         | added to the chain, there are no deep chain reorgs like in
         | bitcoin - so any significant alternate history is easily
         | identified.
        
         | whoooooo123 wrote:
         | It's bullshit: https://yanmaani.github.io/proof-of-stake-is-a-
         | scam-and-the-...
        
           | 6c737133 wrote:
           | A magnificently misinformed waste of bytes. Thanks for
           | sharing.
        
       | clord wrote:
       | Say I have a few GPUs churning but my payout date is late 2022.
       | Should I just give up now?
        
       | falcolas wrote:
       | Poor miners.
       | 
       | /s
        
         | TakeBlaster16 wrote:
         | I can't tell you how much I enjoy refreshing these crypto
         | threads. Comments are turning from black to gray to black again
         | like I'm at a disco.
        
           | cowtools wrote:
           | Something I like about HN is that down-voted posts will often
           | come back from the grave. For some reason voters have a lot
           | of sympathy.
           | 
           | Back on reddit, people use votes as a way to signal to each
           | other what to believe in: instinctively, you upvote popular
           | comments and downvote unpopular comments. It's really the
           | first few voters that decide what people see.
        
       | orliesaurus wrote:
       | Curious: will it be more energy efficient?
        
         | y42 wrote:
         | Quote
         | 
         | The Merge will reduce Ethereum's energy consumption by ~99.95%.
        
           | swarnie wrote:
           | Does the merge come with any real world benefits? Besides now
           | not needing the yearly power consumption of Belgium.
           | 
           | Like... Can i buy bread and milk with this thing any time
           | soon?
        
             | TakeBlaster16 wrote:
             | From TFA:
             | 
             | > Misconception: "The Merge will reduce gas fees."
             | 
             | > False. The Merge is a change of consensus mechanism, not
             | an expansion of network capacity, and will not result in
             | lower gas fees.
             | 
             | > Misconception: "Transactions will be noticeably faster
             | after The Merge."
             | 
             | > False. Though some slight changes exist, transaction
             | speed will mostly remain the same on layer 1.
        
             | brian-armstrong wrote:
             | No. It's still a cryptocurrency.
        
             | timbit42 wrote:
             | The only benefit of the merge is energy consumption will be
             | reduced to about 1/1000th what it is now.
        
           | jmathai wrote:
           | Multitudes of miners will no longer race to find the next
           | computationally expensive hash. Proof of Stake does address
           | the energy concerns of crypto.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | latchkey wrote:
         | GPU based mining of ETH will turn off, literally, in 15s (one
         | block). But the thing is, it will just move to other coins, for
         | now. Once those are not as profitable, things will rebalance as
         | people shut off their GPUs.
         | 
         | Future, ETH will grow with power requirements too... just a lot
         | more slowly... ASICs for zero knowledge are coming, which will
         | create a bit of an energy race. Staking will always be
         | increasing... which will require compute and power.
         | 
         | At the end of the day, overall, the existing power usage won't
         | actually go away... it will just get moved to other things.
         | Always remember that power companies are incentivized to sell
         | their power to the highest bidder...
        
           | zaptrem wrote:
           | Can you give more info about Zero Knowledge Proofs would
           | require ASICS?
        
             | latchkey wrote:
             | https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2022/08/04/zkevm.html
             | 
             | "Type 1 aims to replicate Ethereum exactly, and so it has
             | no way of mitigating these inefficiencies. At present,
             | proofs for Ethereum blocks take many hours to produce. This
             | can be mitigated either by clever engineering to massively
             | parallelize the prover or in the longer term by ZK-SNARK
             | ASICs."
             | 
             | ...
             | 
             | "Personally, my hope is that everything becomes Type 1 over
             | time, through a combination of improvements in ZK-EVMs and
             | improvements to Ethereum itself to make it more ZK-SNARK-
             | friendly."
        
       | Tao3300 wrote:
       | > As we approach The Merge of Ethereum Mainnet, you should be on
       | high alert for scams trying to take advantage of users during
       | this transition. Do not send your ETH anywhere in an attempt to
       | "upgrade to ETH2." There is no "ETH2" token, and there is nothing
       | more you need to do for your funds to remain safe.
       | 
       | Yeah... this is going to be a shitshow. Who wants to set the
       | over/under on $millions that get stolen? Which exchange or fund
       | will lose a vast chunk of its holdings?
        
         | X6S1x6Okd1st wrote:
         | > Who wants to set the over/under on $millions that get stolen?
         | 
         | If you can think of a way to measure it metaculus would be
         | interested properly.
         | 
         | > Which exchange or fund will lose a vast chunk of its
         | holdings?
         | 
         | I'd place this at roughly at 0.01% chance for any major
         | exchange or fund
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | ben_jones wrote:
           | > I'd place this at roughly at 0.01% chance for any major
           | exchange or fund
           | 
           | Over 0.01% of major exchanges and funds have been hacked or
           | scammed _this month_.
        
       | numlock86 wrote:
       | > The Merge will reduce Ethereum's energy consumption by ~99.95%.
       | 
       | That's something Bitcoin needs ... or even better get rid of it
       | altogether.
       | 
       | https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index
       | 
       | https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption/
        
         | smashem wrote:
         | End the FUD https://endthefud.org/
        
           | numlock86 wrote:
           | > The delusional shitcoiner's funny compilation
           | 
           | Yeah, thanks for reminding me. We all had out good laugh at
           | that site at some point.
        
           | BolexNOLA wrote:
           | I really enjoyed mousing over each link and looking at the
           | sources.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | X6S1x6Okd1st wrote:
         | I believe that after the block size wars that resulted in
         | Bitcoin cash and bitcoin (the chain that chose the path of no
         | change) the bitcoin community ossified into a community that is
         | actively resistant towards changes, and bitcoin cash is much
         | smaller and suffered from many subsequent forks.
         | 
         | Without significant outside force bitcoin will not change to
         | proof of stake, they are currently framing proof of stake as
         | useless and insecure, IMO because of motivated reasoning from
         | the stance that bitcoin is perfect, therefore any deviation
         | from what bitcoin has is a mistake.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | _That 's something Bitcoin needs ... or even better get rid of
         | it altogether._
         | 
         | As the price keeps falling, presumably so will energy
         | consumption. The energy consumption problem fixes itself as the
         | bubble bursts and people lose interest and mining becomes
         | unprofitable, without the need for regulation.
        
           | cowtools wrote:
           | If the price continues to fall, the bitcoin network will
           | become susceptible to 51% and selfish-mining attacks.
        
           | dragontamer wrote:
           | The hardware to perform PoW already exists. All someone needs
           | to do for a 51% attack is buy up the old mining hardware that
           | is being sold for so cheap.
           | 
           | Every "bust" period for BTC comes with the risk of a 51%
           | attack / centralization.
           | 
           | If the difficulty falls by 90% because 90% of miners were
           | shut off, you only need to buy 5.6% of those thrown-away
           | miners to cause a 51% attack on BTC.
        
             | icoder wrote:
             | Assuminge no one buys up any of the other 94.4%
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | It doesn't matter if they buy it or not. If they're
               | waiting for profitability, they won't turn those machines
               | on. Or do you think people will spend $100 on electricity
               | to mine $10 of BTC just to keep the security of the token
               | high?
               | 
               | A hypothetical 51% attacker isn't doing it for profits,
               | they're doing it for some other reason. Whatever that
               | reason is, the 51% attack gets cheaper-and-cheaper each
               | time these "bust" cycles happen.
        
         | wyager wrote:
         | Proof of work is the only way to get acceptable security
         | properties for a monetary system. Proof of stake suffers from
         | the "nothing at stake" problem, leading to grinding attacks
         | etc.
        
           | Victerius wrote:
           | > Proof of work is the only way to get acceptable security
           | properties for a monetary system.
           | 
           | Every country's financial system: ahem.
           | 
           | The U.S. dollar doesn't require giant energy-hungry server
           | farms to be secure.
        
             | cowtools wrote:
             | The U.S. dollar is backed by a military many times more
             | energy intensive.
        
               | Victerius wrote:
               | What?
        
               | Macha wrote:
               | So if the us replaced the dollar with Bitcoin they could
               | eliminate or downsize their military?
               | 
               | Doubtful
        
               | novantadue wrote:
               | We wouldn't have to overthrow mid-east dictators every
               | time they threaten to price oil in Euros -- but obviously
               | this wouldn't help much because we'd still need to
               | maintain superpower status or risk losing the world
               | order.
        
               | cowtools wrote:
               | I agree with the point you are making here. I just think
               | that Proof-of-Work is usually a better choice for a
               | cryptocurrency than Proof-of-Stake.
               | 
               | Conventional currencies (notably the US Dollar) are also
               | backed by signifigant military (and thus electrical)
               | power. I would posit that Fiat currencies are nessisary
               | in some sense, but not that they are more efficient to
               | maintain than cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies tend to
               | piggyback on the infrastructure and economy that are
               | built on fiat (e.g. The internet).
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | Fiat currency is not backed by military power. Note that
               | there exist several countries without militaries, and
               | none of those countries have worthless currencies. And
               | there have existed countries that put significant
               | investment into their military and still wound up with a
               | worthless currency at the end.
        
               | cowtools wrote:
               | Those countries exist as client states to countries with
               | militaries.
               | 
               | Yes, the militatary spending is nessisary but not
               | sufficient to sustain a currency.
        
               | smashem wrote:
               | You really believe that the USD, as the world's reserve
               | currency, doesn't require its military to keep it that
               | way.
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | Yes, I do, actually.
               | 
               | The US economy is the world's largest economy in gross
               | value, is the largest or one of the largest trade
               | partners of much of the world, and has very limited
               | policies on capital control or other monetary
               | restrictions. This means that there is going to be more
               | depth on trading pairs via USD and even small currencies
               | than you would likely have with other countries, you
               | would have very little counterparty risk holding USD, and
               | much trade will end up being denominated in USD anyways.
               | So you'd be a _bloody fool_ not to hold USD.
               | 
               | Magically blinking away the US military would not change
               | any of the above consideration one iota.
               | 
               | So let me flip the question around: why do _you_ believe
               | that the US military is essential to its role as a major
               | reserve currency?
        
               | alfiedotwtf wrote:
               | > Magically blinking away the US military would not
               | change any of the above consideration one iota.
               | 
               | Let's flip the question around: what happens when oil
               | producing countries try to sell in non-USD? _US military
               | has entered the chat_
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | Answer: nothing. No country has been invaded by the US
               | military, or any other military for that matter, after
               | selling, or even attempting to sell, oil in non-USD. Not
               | Russia, not Iran, not Venezuela, not Iraq, not Libya,
               | none of them.
               | 
               | (And I include the last few because there's no evidence
               | they even attempted to sell oil in non-US currencies.)
        
             | _Algernon_ wrote:
             | Granted, it is not a server farm, but the US military isn't
             | exactly carbon neutral.
        
               | smashem wrote:
               | There are server farms within the military, so by proxy,
               | the USD does require server farms. Then the private
               | financial institutions have server farms.
        
             | hapticmonkey wrote:
             | Does the army and law enforcement not use energy?
             | 
             | Do banks not have server farms?
        
               | Victerius wrote:
               | Okay, back up a little. Crypto miners mine crypto in
               | order to become rich. With national currencies, this is
               | impossible. Citizens cannot create their own currency,
               | and that's a good thing. If money could be easily forged,
               | it would either be worthless, or a speculative
               | instrument, like every crypto in existence. National
               | governments are the source and the only legal creators of
               | money.
               | 
               | Crypto mining also makes the blockchain secure. What this
               | means is that a malicious individual cannot, say,
               | transfer crypto from another person's wallet to his own,
               | or alter the software algorithm that controls the
               | creation of the cryptocurrency.
               | 
               | Proof of work cryptocurrencies require miners to expend
               | an enormous quantity of energy in order to prevent
               | problems that national currencies don't have in the first
               | place. Cryptocurrencies have no advantage over national
               | currencies except for anonymous online transactions.
        
               | smashem wrote:
               | > National governments are the source and the only legal
               | creators of money.
               | 
               | And those closest to the money printer benefit. And hint,
               | the average joe is furthest from the printer. The future
               | of the average joe is stolen via currency debasement and
               | inflation, but those closest to the printer get richer.
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | How would moving to cryptocurrency reduce the need of
               | energy for military and law enforcement, or the need for
               | server farms in banks?
        
               | samkon wrote:
               | Securing private keys is much cheaper than securing
               | physical property.
        
               | nightski wrote:
               | I don't think that was the point. The point was that you
               | can't have security without energy expenditure.
        
             | smashem wrote:
             | True, the USD just requires violence and cohersion.
        
             | Loveaway wrote:
             | Fiat currencies are backed by huge financial sectors. If
             | all you need are numbers in a database, what are all those
             | towers in NY for?
        
             | wyager wrote:
             | Are you familiar with petrodollar warfare? It consumes a
             | lot more energy and resources than bitcoin.
        
           | osigurdson wrote:
           | Good discussion on the topic below (~10 minutes).
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-_CuPtzoDU
        
         | repomies69 wrote:
         | Bitcoin is never going to change from PoW... That's the point
         | of the system, Bitcoin is unchangable, unlike Ethereum.
         | 
         | But you are free to create your own PoS cryptocurrency. If some
         | PoS system offers the same security features as Bitcoin, people
         | will just switch from Bitcoin to that.
        
           | simonebrunozzi wrote:
           | Bitcoin has changed in the past. The block size, for example,
           | is something that was modified a few years ago.
           | 
           | See also the "block size controversy" [0]
           | 
           | [0]: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Block_size_limit_controversy
        
           | lapser wrote:
           | Bitcoin is still software. Software can change. It's the
           | people who refuse to change it
        
             | MBCook wrote:
             | A huge chunk of the miners fought tooth-and-nail to not
             | increase the maximum block size. The chance of them
             | agreeing to something like this seems very low indeed.
        
             | earnesti wrote:
             | Yes, other way to put it is that the incentives for the
             | software are designed in a way which makes certain changes
             | extremely unlikely. However some changes are happening all
             | the time (features added via a soft fork)
        
           | konschubert wrote:
           | Bitcoin will either die or will eventually have much higher
           | transaction fees compared to Ethereum. Because somebody's
           | gotta pay that power bill.
           | 
           | Maybe that won't matter, but I hope it will.
           | 
           | https://www.konstantinschubert.com/2018/11/28/proof-of-
           | stake...
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | simias wrote:
           | Security is not the main reason for Bitcoin's success within
           | the cryptocurrency scene, it's that it's the first and most
           | recognizable name. But because its creator is AWOL it's
           | incredibly difficult to push for any fundamental change to
           | the protocol without creating huge divisions and probably a
           | very controversial fork (of which there already have been a
           | few). Unless Satoshi themselves decides to make a comeback, I
           | don't think it'll ever happen.
           | 
           | People are not using Bitcoin because it's the most advanced
           | or secure cryptocurrency, they use bitcoin because it was the
           | first and will probably be the last to go whenever that whole
           | flaming garbage bag of a "technology" hits the bin.
        
       | encryptluks2 wrote:
       | How are gas fees going to be calculated, and how do you plan to
       | control spamming the network similar to what you see with Solana?
        
         | 0x64 wrote:
         | Block times become exactly 12 seconds, that's it. Nothing else
         | changes: it's the same Ethereum, just greener and very slightly
         | faster!
        
         | dsimmons wrote:
         | Gas fees don't materially change under Proof of Stake. It's a
         | common misconception that The Merge reduces fees (it does not).
        
           | encryptluks2 wrote:
           | So what is the point of high fees under proof of stake?
           | Before it was to reward the miners. Who exactly is being
           | rewarded high fees once it changes and for what purpose?
        
       | ur-whale wrote:
       | Time to short NVidia
        
         | dsimmons wrote:
         | In the short-term, it's likely already priced in: folks have
         | known this is coming for a while, and especially over the past
         | 2-3 months where it became "real" versus "coming soon".
         | 
         | Longer term, there may be uses for GPUs when it comes to zero-
         | knowledge proofs (think: expensive to produce, easy to verify),
         | but we still have a ways to go in that department.
        
       | charcircuit wrote:
       | Quote from the blog linked:
       | 
       | >The target date is September 15, 2022, but this estimate might
       | have even a week of error.
        
         | dsimmons wrote:
         | It depends on a host of factors, so it's hard to predict
         | exactly.
         | 
         | As an example: it depends on the rate at which existing Proof
         | of Work miners move the chain forward. We can make an estimated
         | guess based on the current hash rate, but miners may begin to
         | drop off early and try to "beat the rush" to sell their used
         | hardware before everyone else, so the hash rate could drop more
         | than anticipated.
        
         | 0x64 wrote:
         | The current estimate for the upgrade can be found at [1]. It's
         | not a regular upgrade that happens at a specific block height,
         | hence the variance. Instead, the consensus is flipped over from
         | PoW to PoS at a specific total difficulty, also known as mining
         | difficulty. One of the reasons is to avoid miner attacks around
         | the merge event.
         | 
         | [1] https://bordel.wtf/
        
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