[HN Gopher] US Drought Monitor
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US Drought Monitor
Author : pilingual
Score : 114 points
Date : 2022-09-04 16:20 UTC (6 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
(TXT) w3m dump (droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
| matthewdgreen wrote:
| The consequences of global warming used to be a "future" concern.
| Starting to feel like that was extremely optimistic.
| pantalaimon wrote:
| It used to be a ,,future concern" in the past, but due to the
| nature of time moving forward (and humanity not doing anything
| of significance to addresses the issue) that future is now.
| ben_w wrote:
| For me, yes and no at the same time. The _average_ increase is
| slow, steady, and not too far from what I was expecting... but
| the geographic variation and the behaviour of the extremes is
| much stronger than I expected.
| mellavora wrote:
| > The average increase is slow, steady,
|
| I'm not sure about that. This year is a significant uptick
| from 3 years ago where I live (central Europe).
|
| I did notice a slow warming since 2006 (when I moved to my
| current location), but even 2 years ago there were only a few
| summer nights where you could comfortably sit outside after
| dark without a jacket.
|
| It has been that warm every single night this summer.
|
| If you want to see it on a global scale, look at the oceans.
| It has been "steady" there, though not slow,
| https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/
|
| And most of the heat (90%) has gone into the ocean. Now the
| oceans are warm, so we will see it on land.
|
| I'm expecting rapid acceleration over the next 10 years, not
| slow, and certainly not steady.
|
| https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/01/extreme-.
| ..
| ben_w wrote:
| > This year is a significant uptick from 3 years ago where
| I live
|
| Too short a time scale and too localised geographically to
| count as "average". First time I visited the USA, I spent
| Christmas in CA, which was several degrees warmer than
| normal for the season, people were surfing[0]; at the same
| time, the east coast of the US was several degrees colder
| than normal for the season, it was snowing[0].
|
| > If you want to see it on a global scale, look at the
| oceans. It has been "steady" there, though not slow,
| https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/
|
| Zettajoules without context is big and scary. But the Earth
| is an astronomical body and astronomical numbers are always
| big.
|
| 588 joules per square millimetre, sounds even scarier! But
| that doesn't tell me the depth over which the heat was
| added.
|
| But fortunately I don't need to guess at that, as the
| temperature is easier to measure directly:
| https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
|
| Using that heating figure and that energy figure, that's
| like heating a water planet by 0.85 C to a depth of about
| 370 m.
|
| [0] For all I know both these things happen every year at
| Christmas in the US, but it still felt very bizarre to me
| as an outsider, and that year did have opposite temperature
| anomalies on the east and west coasts.
| Guid_NewGuid wrote:
| Strong same. While 1 swallow doesn't make a summer the
| combination of 1/3rd of Pakistan being underwater plus
| heatwaves in Europe and blackouts in China with all the other
| stuff does get concerning.
|
| Maybe the 'establishment' causing scientists to only disclose
| the most conservative and defensible estimates misled us as to
| how fast and severe this thing would be.
|
| I caught myself getting frustrated the supermarket was out of
| instant coffee the other day and realized I'm in no way
| mentally prepared for what's coming.
| joe_the_user wrote:
| I think establishment science has talked about increased
| weather variability as a result of the slowing of the
| jetstream for a while. No one done a good job in saying "So a
| one degree increase overall can mean five or ten degrees
| increase hovering over a given area for weeks and that's
| devastating and deadly in many places, especially areas that
| have already pushed their ecology and infrastructure to the
| edge".
| Aloha wrote:
| Its interesting how you can see how the large storms that came
| thru Arizona and Texas between the 16th and the 30th reduced
| drought over so much of that area.
| JoeAltmaier wrote:
| Curious that drought seems to respect political boundaries in
| many cases. Is that because political boundaries often respect
| geographic features? Or is reporting not uniform across those
| boundaries?
| jjtheblunt wrote:
| In what cases? I'm not seeing what you describe.
| rblatz wrote:
| I was surprised to see all the Hawaiian islands in some level of
| drought.
| dekerta wrote:
| Windy.com has a neat feature that displays current drought
| conditions for the entire world:
|
| https://www.windy.com/-Drought-intensity-awp_0_40
| StephenSmith wrote:
| Why does this not line up well with the linked data, I wonder?
| ninkendo wrote:
| Looks like windy.com is showing short-term trends, perhaps
| driven by things like "how long since it last rained", etc.
| Michigan is showing severe drought, and then you set the date
| to the 12th and it all clears to normal (there's rain in the
| forecast around then.)
|
| It's a lot different than the long term trends driven by
| total annual precipitation, snowpack, etc.
| kickout wrote:
| windy is my favorite website. Absolutely loved it from day1.
| Wonder if anyone on that team is a HNer
| sokoloff wrote:
| Interesting that windy shows Cape Ann (Gloucester, MA area) as
| "no drought" and the unl site has the same area as "extreme
| drought".
| koheripbal wrote:
| Yeah, both data sources are very suspect.
| baxtr wrote:
| Are they good pages for other countries or a global index? There
| is a good one for Germany:
|
| https://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=37937
| nathanaldensr wrote:
| I love this site. Especially cool is the comparison slider, where
| you can compare drought assignments from two different times.
| sydd wrote:
| Whats up with the extreme drought in Hawaii?
| https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonito...
| ac29 wrote:
| Just because it rains a lot in the tropics doesnt mean there
| cant be a drought. Fresh water supplies are often in short
| supply on islands, especially ones where there are lots of
| people.
| pantalaimon wrote:
| Same for Germany: https://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=37937
| gernb wrote:
| when does the water just run out? like is it possible say in 2
| months or 14 months that there will be no water for millions of
| people? in particular in Southern California?
| kickout wrote:
| Still not quite 1930s dust bowl dry, but we're on the brink.
| Dangerous situation with no easy fixes either (other than
| telling California farmers they can't water)
| ericmcer wrote:
| If these conditions continue we will be faced with a
| disasterous shortage of Almond Milk and Almond Butter
| mellavora wrote:
| So Cal running out of water might be more pleasant than the
| other possibility
|
| https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995
|
| Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood
| kortilla wrote:
| We're not even close. Keep in mind the vast majority of water
| is still going to ag and industry. Residents are left fighting
| over like 15% of the total flow.
|
| There are far more voters who are residents than there are
| farmers. When things get desperate those farmers' water rights
| in the CA constitution will get amended in a heartbeat.
| delecti wrote:
| Much of the southwest US is under very real risk of exactly
| that.
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_North_American_me...
| hyperrail wrote:
| Take note that the map is partly based on opinion:
|
| https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/WhatistheUSDM.aspx
|
| > _Who draws the map?_
|
| > _Several authors from the NDMC, NOAA and USDA create the map.
| They take turns, usually two weeks at a time._
|
| > _How do they figure out where and how bad drought is?_
|
| > _This is what makes the U.S. Drought Monitor unique. It is not
| a statistical model, although numeric inputs are many: [...]_
| ruddct wrote:
| Drought.gov also has interesting graphs, historical context and
| descriptions of the various severity levels.
|
| https://www.drought.gov/states/california
| fasteddie31003 wrote:
| I think there is some selection bias in maps like this because it
| has no data on above average rainfall. I know where I live we've
| had one of the rainiest summers ever but you won't see this on a
| map like this.
| simonsarris wrote:
| Drought.gov actually keeps track of that!
|
| For example for New Hampshire:
| https://www.drought.gov/states/new-hampshire
|
| Scroll down to the graph, click "1895 - Present (Monthly)", and
| click the different levels of exceptional drought/exceptional
| wetness.
|
| You can see that NH has been trending wetter for the last 100
| years (as with all the northeast), more or less the opposite of
| the southwestern US. Large periods of exceptional wet have
| happened in my life, with fewer big droughts than ever. (Alas,
| we're in a drought right now.)
|
| You can also see that California had some unusually wet periods
| in the 80's and 90's, which might have informed policy, but
| were simply an anomaly:
| https://www.drought.gov/states/california
| joe_the_user wrote:
| The monitor seems problematic to me in all sorts of ways. As
| you say, there's no reference to above average rainfall.
|
| Also, it should be base-lining on the median result, not the
| average result. California has always had a few very wet and
| many dry years so the monitor usually shows drought. This
| serves developers and farmers who don't want to admit
| California is dry _place_ and you should do projects taking a
| lot of water.
|
| And finally, the drought monitor measures dryness, not overall
| rainfall but it doesn't make this obvious. California's
| reservoirs are low but we have had fairly typical (median)
| rainfall for the last two years (and even had an usually humid
| spring and summer). The difference is increased heat increases
| evaporation and dryness and the map should make this
| distinction obvious.
| richiebful1 wrote:
| It's better to go to the government agency site for the
| source data. They make it clear that the drought level is
| based on the availability of water compared to normal.
|
| https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor
| doodlebugging wrote:
| The map looks to be pretty accurate if I consider my own location
| except that I should be in the Exceptional Drought instead of
| Extreme Drought category but recognizing that it is highly
| smoothed and can't show all the bumps, like my place, I can say
| it is pretty close.
|
| I have tracked and measured rainfall at my place for more than 20
| years. So far this year we are still almost 2" (51 mm) below the
| lowest YTD rainfall total for this date in 20 years. In addition,
| we are almost 11" (279 mm) below the average YTD rainfall total
| for this date in the last 20 years.
|
| YTD Numbers from my worksheet for September 4 - Lowest since 2002
| 14.8" (376 mm); Average since 2002 23.8" (604 mm); Actual YTD
| 2022 for September 4 - 13" (330 mm)
|
| That's better off than we were 2 weeks ago though. The
| temperature had been >100 _F ( >37.8_C) for weeks and everything
| had dried out including established trees. My local rainfall
| totals showed almost 16" (406 mm) below the average YTD rainfall
| for the date during the last 20 years and more than 7.4" (188 mm)
| under the lowest YTD rainfall total for that date in the last 20
| years.
|
| YTD Numbers from my worksheet for August 22 - Lowest since 2002
| 14.8" (376 mm); Average since 2002 23.1" (587 mm); Actual YTD
| 2022 for August 22 - 7.4" (188 mm)
|
| The lowest YTD totals before this year are from 2011.
|
| With temperatures ranging from 85 _F to 93_ F (29.4-33.9*C) since
| the first storm front came through it has been a huge contrast. I
| am letting everything that will still grow go to seed now.
| Migratory birds always stop by during the coldest days to eat the
| berries on the trees and perennials I have planted. Two weeks ago
| the plants were dormant and appeared dead. They have bloomed and
| it appears that I may have some set fruit before autumn shuts it
| all down in a few weeks.
| ijidak wrote:
| Very interesting. Where are you located?
| doodlebugging wrote:
| North Texas, west of Fort Worth between there and Abilene.
| Where the west begins, LOL.
| koheripbal wrote:
| My data point is highly exaggerated. The reservoirs here are
| high, we're on a freshwater river, and no one is talking about
| drought here - and yet it says Severe drought.
|
| I also question the selection of "abnormally dry" as the lowest
| level. Also, why aren't "abnormally wet" regions shown? ....and
| what about different colors in the same watershed? Lower areas
| of a watershed shouldn't be dryer than the highlands.
| Waterluvian wrote:
| Very cool.
|
| A few comments (which probably need to be emailed to them and not
| just put here):
|
| 1. The main page map absolutely NEEDS a legend.
|
| 2. I wonder if any sort of drought map should also include the
| other half of the spectrum. Are are blank regions normal?
| Exceptionally wet? Flooding?
| icegreentea2 wrote:
| The linked page does have a legend just below the map. Look for
| "Intensity and Impacts".
| jseliger wrote:
| The gap between the drought monitor and the rejection of
| desalination plants seems notable:
| https://www.reuters.com/world/us/california-regulator-reject....
| vkou wrote:
| That's a red herring. The biggest problem during a drought is
| for agriculture, and you can't afford to desalinate enough
| water to make agriculture work.
| RC_ITR wrote:
| But what Ag. wants you to believe is that _they_ should get
| the cheap water and those coastal elite cities should have to
| pay a premium for their desalinated water.
| sologoub wrote:
| It's frankly appalling, but people are easy to manipulate with
| false promises of nearly free water efficiency and paint
| desalination as an expensive waste.
|
| LA county water districts are further busy cleaning recycled
| water enough to pump as potable, despite a pretty bad track
| record of keeping that water actually clean [1]. All the while
| saying residents are too incompetent to have access to normal
| recycled water at properly for irrigation because "someone will
| mess up and interconnect with potable". Many engineers have
| pointed out that it's a solved problem, and that backflow
| prevention devices are a thing and will prevent such issues at
| individual property meters.
|
| [1]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-08-11/water-
| re...
| sillystuff wrote:
| >LA county water districts are further busy cleaning recycled
| water enough to pump as potable,
|
| San Diego started doing this decades ago, and it has worked
| out all right. "Toilet to tap," was the slogan the detractors
| came up with, and it stuck. My concern for LA would be
| industrial waste water in their waste streams.
| RC_ITR wrote:
| It's frankly appalling that the agriculture lobby has made
| people believe that California is anywhere near needing
| desalination or even frankly grey water for urban use.
|
| California _residents_ use a very small amount of California
| 's water, most is Ag, which is exported to the rest of the
| world. [0]
|
| So the idea that California is somehow shooting themselves in
| the foot (rather than refusing to further subsidize the Ag.
| industry which has done insane damage to the state's ecology)
| is severely misinformed.
|
| [0]https://cwc.ca.gov/-/media/CWC-
| Website/Files/Documents/2019/...
| capitainenemo wrote:
| https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/05/11/california-water-
| you-d... "But if all the savings from water rationing
| amounted to 20% of our residential water use, then that
| equals about 0.5 MAF, which is about 10% of the water used
| to irrigate alfalfa. The California alfalfa industry makes
| a total of $860 million worth of alfalfa hay per year. So
| if you calculate it out, a California resident who wants to
| spend her fair share of money to solve the water crisis
| without worrying about cutting back could do it by paying
| the alfalfa industry $2 to not grow $2 worth of alfalfa,
| thus saving as much water as if she very carefully rationed
| her own use."
|
| https://www.npr.org/2015/04/18/400573611/a-water-markets-
| mig...
|
| It seems main issue is no political will in California to
| resolve it..
| azinman2 wrote:
| But that alfalfa also goes to feed cows, which feed
| humans.
|
| All that's grown in CA supports humans. You could get all
| "America first" with it, which has some merit here, but
| CA still massively feeds the US.
| jshen wrote:
| We should eat a lot less meat, particularly red meat,
| which is extremely wasteful and destructive to the
| environment compared to other sources of food.
| steve_adams_86 wrote:
| Look at a crop like lentils though. They require
| relatively little water, allow for farming practices
| which mitigate soil erosion and the need for tilling, are
| not nutrient-intensive, and they yield an excellent food.
| Alfalfa seems insane to grow beside such a great crop
| like lentils.
|
| The only reason we don't, as far as I can see, is that
| the demand isn't there.
| capitainenemo wrote:
| If that alfalfa is really that cheap and easily shipped,
| it doesn't seem to make economic sense to produce it
| there, and if there was a real water market, it seems it
| would not be. So, producing cow feed in calfornia seems,
| at least from those 2 articles to not only be heavily
| subsidised by a poorly designed system of legacy water
| rights, but also completely unsustainable.
|
| That is... get the water priced correctly, and let the
| market sort out ratio of cow alfalfa production to other
| water priorities...
| throwaway09223 wrote:
| "All that's grown in CA supports humans."
|
| This can be said about anything, but what matters is
| whether its is better to do something _else_ to provide
| the same support.
|
| California only produces 3% of the country's hay. We
| could just grow a bit more elsewhere to compensate.
| Ending alfalfa in California wouldn't be a big deal. It's
| an extremely low value crop.
|
| Meanwhile, to grow this tiny amount of alfalfa we spend
| more than double all household water use in the entire
| state. Including swimming pools, toilets, showers,
| everything.
|
| It's inexplicably foolish.
| orionion wrote:
| It's not just burgers and steaks.
|
| Dairy cows turn alfalfa into milk and we turn milk into
| butter, cheese, yogurt, kefir, cream, sour cream, cottage
| cheese, cream cheese, ice cream, whey, casein, pudding,
| flan, caramel, crema, etc.
| RC_ITR wrote:
| Dairy is significantly less resource intensive than meat
| (though still bad in its own right) since we don't have
| to regrow a cow every time it is milked (whereas we do
| every time it's slaughtered)
| shsuxnsusd wrote:
| RC_ITR wrote:
| Is your argument based on the idea that cows are the only
| food humans can eat?
| azinman2 wrote:
| Not at all; that's obviously not the case. There's also
| potatoes.
| shsuxnsusd wrote:
| ajmurmann wrote:
| I had been saying for years that proper market pricing
| for water should solve this. However, it was called out
| in a previous discussion of this topic that farmers don't
| get their water out of a faucet. They typically will get
| it out of wells or rivers that run through their
| properties. Addressing this would apparently require
| reworking water rights that have been in place for a long
| time.
| TaylorAlexander wrote:
| It's fascinating watching the extreme conditions going on all
| over the world. I live in California and we have of course been
| getting drought and wildfires for a long time now, but I am
| noticing too that this is happening in many places.
|
| I just found this youtube channel talking about the droughts in
| China, and the story is remarkable. Low water levels means
| hydroelectric dams are shutting off, rolling blackouts during a
| massive heat wave. Feels like a story out of California, but this
| is happening all over China.
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_5CAMs_wkc
|
| There's the flooding in Bangladesh:
|
| https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/22/bangladesh-floods-e...
|
| Heat waves in Europe are leading to thousands of excess deaths:
|
| https://www.politico.eu/article/excess-death-surged-heat-wav...
|
| Global average temperature anomaly is now 0.85 C above pre-
| industrial levels.
|
| https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
|
| I noticed someone from the UK saying they had a heat wave in the
| 1970's, but then someone shared a plot of global temperature
| anomaly from back then and today. That summer there was a bit of
| an increase in the UK from that heat wave, but the rest of the
| world was more normal. Today, the increase is happening all over
| the world at once.
|
| I desperately hope that people get the message. It seems that
| maybe the tide is turning, but I know it is already so late, I
| hope we can act fast before we make things so much worse.
| akolbe wrote:
| As for the UK, note also that the highest temperature during
| the 1976 heatwave in the UK was 35.9 degC.
|
| We've just had over 40 degC here - nearly 5 degC more, half a
| century later.
|
| 40 degC and 36 degC feel quite different.
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(page generated 2022-09-04 23:00 UTC)