[HN Gopher] No, Most Books Don't Sell Only a Dozen Copies
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       No, Most Books Don't Sell Only a Dozen Copies
        
       Author : herbertl
       Score  : 47 points
       Date   : 2022-09-10 21:21 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (countercraft.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (countercraft.substack.com)
        
       | keyle wrote:
       | The whole 2% makes 95% of all revenues doesn't just apply to
       | books... it certainly is true for the video game industry, and I
       | suspect, most of the industries being sold online.
        
         | nemo44x wrote:
         | Yeah power law distributions are everywhere nowadays. Nassim
         | Taleb talks about this a lot and uses book sales as a
         | reference, which is cheeky since he's doing it in his own best
         | seller books.
        
       | rgrieselhuber wrote:
       | This "fact-checker" headline template is quite tired by now.
        
       | quickthrower2 wrote:
       | Because people have friends?
        
       | codazoda wrote:
       | I dunno, seems that the "spirit" of these comments is correct.
       | I've self-published half a dozen small books that have only low
       | double digit sales. The comment that goes through the data is
       | also really interesting.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | lovingCranberry wrote:
       | Pretty long post for "I know that I know nothing".
       | 
       | However, there is gold in the comment section: Kristen McLean
       | actually throws some numbers at us [1]. "66% of those books from
       | the top 10 publishers sold less than 1,000 copies over 52 weeks".
       | Well, uh, that's what I thought. Interesting nonetheless.
       | 
       | [1] https://countercraft.substack.com/p/no-most-books-dont-
       | sell-...
        
       | evandwight wrote:
       | >>>0.4% or 163 books sold 100,000 copies or more
       | 
       | >>>0.7% or 320 books sold between 50,000-99,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>2.2% or 1,015 books sold between 20,000-49,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>3.4% or 1,572 books sold between 10,000-19,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>5.5% or 2,518 books sold between 5,000-9,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>21.6% or 9,863 books sold between 1,000-4,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>51.4% or 23,419 sold between 12-999 copies
       | 
       | >>>14.7% or 6,701 books sold under 12 copies
       | 
       | - Kristen McLean from NPD BookScan
        
         | mysterydip wrote:
         | With such a large portion less than 1000, it would be nice to
         | see it broken down more. Was it more 20, or 900?
        
         | PuppyTailWags wrote:
         | BookScan isn't a reliable source of information unfortunately.
         | It only counts when a book's ISBN is physically scanned over a
         | scanner (no ebook, audio book, libraries, specialty sales, etc)
         | and also only covers 75% of retail in general. Generally, you
         | can bet BookScan largely undercounts by a very wide margin.
        
         | LudwigNagasena wrote:
         | > Because this is clearly a slice, and most likely provided by
         | one of the parties to the suit, I decided to limit my data to
         | the frontlist sales for the top 10 publishers by unit volume in
         | the U.S. Trade market. My ISBN list is a little smaller than
         | the one quoted in the DOJ, but the principals will be the same.
         | 
         | > The data below includes frontlist titles from Penguin Random
         | House, Simon & Schuster, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins,
         | Scholastic, Disney, Macmillan, Abrams, Sourcebooks, and John
         | Wiley. The figures below only include books published by these
         | publishers themselves, not pubishers they distribute.
        
           | AlbertCory wrote:
           | When you limit your data to those published by (fairly) large
           | publishers, you've already skewed the data irreparably. Most
           | of them won't even look at a book unless an agent brings it
           | to them, and most agents won't represent most would-be
           | authors.
           | 
           | On the other hand, some technical books don't require agents,
           | and O'Reilly has to be a _very_ large publisher in terms of
           | books sold.
           | 
           | Some other categories don't, either -- I know someone who
           | publishes "cozy mysteries" through a real publisher (not a
           | giant one), and she doesn't have an agent.
        
       | swatcoder wrote:
       | TLDR; author doesn't find the numbers shared in some Twitter
       | gossip as plausible, but has no better data than their own gut
       | feeling from being in the industry.
       | 
       | There doesn't seem to be much to take home here, other than that
       | the original tweet isn't clear about its own denotation or
       | veracity.
        
       | phantom_of_cato wrote:
       | I really don't like "fact-checking" articles like this which
       | don't contain many useful facts, only pedantry. The first comment
       | by Kristen McLean from NPD BookScan) is much more interesting
       | than the article itself:
       | 
       | >>>0.4% or 163 books sold 100,000 copies or more
       | 
       | >>>0.7% or 320 books sold between 50,000-99,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>2.2% or 1,015 books sold between 20,000-49,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>3.4% or 1,572 books sold between 10,000-19,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>5.5% or 2,518 books sold between 5,000-9,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>21.6% or 9,863 books sold between 1,000-4,999 copies
       | 
       | >>>51.4% or 23,419 sold between 12-999 copies
       | 
       | >>>14.7% or 6,701 books sold under 12 copies
       | 
       | So, ~66.1% or 2/3 of books in their dataset sell under a thousand
       | copies.
        
         | II2II wrote:
         | The pedantry was intended to point out that there is plenty of
         | room for publishers to mislead when they don't detail how the
         | data is collected. When you don't have access to the data, it
         | is usually the best one can do.
         | 
         | Even the comment by Kristen McLean has limits, though they are
         | much more forthcoming about what the data includes. That said,
         | I think they summed it up best when they said publishing is a
         | gambler's game. That being said, whether the outcome is good or
         | bad for a gambler depends upon how much they invested and the
         | return across all of those bets. Their data does not venture
         | into financial aspects. At best, it gives us an idea of the
         | minimum number of units sold in a particular subset of the
         | market.
        
       | ZiiS wrote:
       | "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"
        
       | lifeisstillgood wrote:
       | Thus my self-publishing goal - to sell more than 12 copies. Well
       | 14. Don't want to be superstitious !
        
       | Waterluvian wrote:
       | I forget if there's a term for this, but I once read (and
       | subsequently discovered) that a large portion of disagreements
       | are simply because people are working with different definitions
       | for things.
       | 
       | This seems like an example of that: depending on how you define
       | "book" these claims are accurate or not.
        
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       (page generated 2022-09-10 23:00 UTC)