[HN Gopher] Toyota CEO talks about why he isn't all-in on EVs
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Toyota CEO talks about why he isn't all-in on EVs
Author : mfiguiere
Score : 53 points
Date : 2022-10-02 15:52 UTC (7 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
| panick21_ wrote:
| Hey Toyota, nobody asks you to be all in. But how about you start
| by no lobbying against climate rules, making advertisements
| demonizing EV and stop to sell the hydrogen snake oil to the
| politicians.
|
| That might be a good start.
| zumu wrote:
| > But how about you start by no lobbying against climate rules
|
| The only lobbying I've heard of is against the narrow focus of
| BEV-only[1] policies and to include hybrid, HEV, etc. What
| other lobbying are you referring to?
|
| 1:
| https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/E2EA0E4F-BAD9-4...
| panick21_ wrote:
| The have been part of various alliances to keep down fuel
| standards.
| dope9967 wrote:
| Toyota does have the most fun to drive hybrid motors though, that
| is subjective of course. I really thought they would get all in
| into EVs, but the reasoning around limitations of battery
| technology does seem to make sense, maybe they will end up as
| winners in the long term.
| to11mtm wrote:
| > Toyota does have the most fun to drive hybrid motors though,
| that is subjective of course.
|
| I can buy that; My Ford Hybrid (drivetrain AFAIR is/was cross
| licensed from Toyota) has been way more enjoyable to drive than
| I expected.
| Tagbert wrote:
| The Chevy Volt hybrid was much more responsive and faster than
| the Toyota hybrids. The Toyota ones tend to fall back on the
| gasoline engine when pushed.
|
| The problem was that is was more expensive for GM to build than
| a pure EV and they wanted to make a clear break.
| darkteflon wrote:
| [deleted]
| antipaul wrote:
| Pragmatic.
|
| Can anyone say more how the increased electricity consumption by
| EVs will pressure the existing grid, and what sources (green or
| otherwise) will generate the extra capacity?
| DangitBobby wrote:
| Who knows. Caution is commendable but if we want to avoid
| catastrophe we might have to start taking steps before
| everything is 100% ironed out, which might mean having less
| reliable infrastructure in the short term.
|
| Our current system is basically just a bunch of inefficient
| portable ICE generators running around everywhere. Maybe a
| short term solution is to install large ICE generators (at
| existing gas stations, for example). Sounds expensive, but
| inaction will also be expensive.
|
| It helps tremendously that many people will hold on to their
| ICE cars for as long as possible. I for one plan to run my
| truck for a long time yet. So we have a long ramp-up time for
| shoring up the electrical grid.
| rootusrootus wrote:
| I charge my EV after 10pm, when demand is so low that I can buy
| it for 1 cent a kilowatt hour. So first we need enough EVs
| charging overnight to reach the late afternoon peak before we
| worry a lot about grid capacity. I also generally charge my EV
| in 1 or 2 hours, it does not typically take all night. So if
| grid capacity becomes a problem, a bit of smart scheduling to
| spread the load should be pretty straightforward.
|
| And after that, we just add more capacity to the grid. The
| electric company exists to sell us electricity, and if we
| demand more, they will make more. The kind of growth we'd need
| to see in the grid to support 100% of all new cars being EVs is
| entirely within the abilities the electric producers have
| demonstrated in times past.
| Ekaros wrote:
| I don't think generation capacity is much issue. Just waste
| money on renewables and it will be there. Now matching the
| demand to that production and forcing people not to use their
| EV-vehicles in certain periods when there aren't enough
| production... As clearly they should be last ones to get it in
| high-demand, low supply scenarios.
| zaptrem wrote:
| https://www.wired.com/story/electric-vehicles-could-rescue-t...
| dimitar wrote:
| He is running a business. He says it will be hard to meet
| regulatory targets, then the incentives are way too low. Given
| they are such a a global business it makes sense for them to sell
| EVs and Hybrids in Europe and California for example and
| conventional vehicles in the rest of the world.
|
| The only policy that can make a significant change in the climate
| is a carbon tax. The effects might as well be less driving and
| more bussing if indeed the rare earth supply is so limited.
| Workaccount2 wrote:
| Anytime society has an enormous demand for something, especially
| people/institutions with money, it gets done.
|
| If there are hundreds of billions or even trillions riding on
| upgrading the grid and securing mineral resources/researching
| alternative solutions, it will get funded and figured out.
|
| There _will be_ $20,000 economy EVs with crappy everything but
| still go A to B. There will be grid upgrades to handle everyone
| charging (really topping off is more realistic, few drive more
| than ~25 miles /day, the upgrade to accommodate this might simply
| be "grid smart" chargers). There will be alternative chemistry
| batteries that don't need rare earths (like LFP in some Teslas).
|
| Toyota is just stubbornly refusing to take the L on their 30
| years of research into this. I don't blame them, but I'm not
| them, so I'll call it how it is.
| mhneu wrote:
| Yes, exactly. Toyota is refusing to take the L on this because
| Toyota is the market leader in gas-electric hybrids and Toyota
| is not the market leader in EVs. This is business strategy 101.
| lifeplusplus wrote:
| I don't want ev because I live in a city and dont fancy spending
| half an hour at electric stations
| rootusrootus wrote:
| Assuming it takes you 30 minutes for at least one of your
| weekly grocery trips, why would you make a habit of sitting in
| the car waiting for it to charge?
| devoutsalsa wrote:
| The plan to go 100% EV seems odd to me. There are many people who
| have cars with no place to charge at home because they lack in
| premise parking. Not sure how that plays out.
| Philip-J-Fry wrote:
| Most of the places they drive their car to, will have chargers.
| Supermarkets, workplaces, parks, etc.
|
| You don't _need_ to charge at home. It 's just the most
| convenient.
| birdyrooster wrote:
| Many of those parking spaces in major cities cannot handle
| even a slight increase in congestion due to charging, and the
| time to plug-in and un plug is too much for them. Think about
| your local downtown Whole Foods parking lot.
| dangrossman wrote:
| My local Whole Foods parking lot has had EV charging spaces
| for 8 years. I used to charge my Nissan LEAF there while
| grocery shopping back in the day.
| ekianjo wrote:
| You stay at the supermarket the whole day ?
| selectodude wrote:
| No, but it's usually 30 minutes. Enough to take a normal EV
| from 20-80 percent.
| threeseed wrote:
| > Supermarkets, workplaces
|
| Problem there is that the trend is towards home delivery and
| working from home.
| CTDOCodebases wrote:
| This isn't the odd part for me.
|
| The part I'm curious about is how will militaries manage the
| change?
|
| It's clear fuel isn't going to disappear but will the military
| or the government end up refining their own petrol for cost
| reasons or will they just end up shipping around batteries as
| if they were fuel.
| XorNot wrote:
| Military fuel infrastructure is already separate from
| civilian. The US uses JP-8 for everything it can because it
| simplifies logistics, but that's hardly what you fill up with
| at the servo.
| KennyBlanken wrote:
| 800v cars can charge to 80% capacity in ~20 minutes on fast
| chargers, and that's for well over 300 miles of range.
|
| However: EVs don't fix the problems inherent with high rates of
| individual car ownership in high population density areas, or
| with low occupancy vehicle, short distance travel.
| bertil wrote:
| The plan shouldn't be to replace 100% of existing ICE cars with
| electric cars. The carbon impact of the construction of those
| would still be too high. The plan should be to invest in public
| transport and electric bicycles, and use electric cars when
| either of those options isn't enough, to complement.
|
| All cities built around cars (and that's almost every American
| city for instance) will have to change--either by arranging for
| bicycles and building public transport or through floods,
| fires, and hurricanes.
| jvanderbot wrote:
| Power delivery exists more places than gasoline delivery. The
| number of places that have gas but no power is very, very low.
| Enough to ignore.
|
| It's amazing to me we have put all this work into a fantastic
| logistics network for gasoline and cough at the thought of
| chargers in all the same places.
| scld wrote:
| The logistics of a 15-30 minute charge time at a power
| station seems harder than a 1.5 to 3 minute gasoline fill,
| IMO.
| ceejayoz wrote:
| Chargers at work. At the grocery store. At your doctors
| appointment.
|
| Most people spend a significant time with their car sitting
| somewhere for at least that amount of time.
| jeffalyanak wrote:
| That's an easy problem to solve, though. Lower-speed L2
| charging could easily be made ubiquitous anywhere that street
| parking exists.
|
| Since the wattage demands are relatively low, it would not be
| too difficult to have L2 charging available anywhere that
| residential parking exists. Unlike fast-charging, you wouldn't
| need a lot of expensive high-power infrastructure, and if the
| power utilities were smart they'd do it themselves.
|
| They could put little parking-meter size boxes by the side of
| the road--tapped off of existing residential power
| infrastructure--with credit card tap to pay.
|
| I don't think it would take that long to reach a large density
| of that type of inexpensive, overnight charge systems.
| treis wrote:
| Feel like solar panel roof/hood are an underrated solution
| here. Lots of people park outdoors and the trickle charge of
| 20-40 miles a day is nearly enough to meet the everyday needs.
| wilg wrote:
| Put chargers wherever they park
| ekianjo wrote:
| Who is paying for that ?
| h0l0cube wrote:
| The people charging both your car and your wallet. Fuel
| isn't free, why wouldn't chargers become a vehicle^ for
| investment?
|
| ^ not intended but I'll leave that in there
| deevolution wrote:
| How is California planning to cleanly support the extra
| electricity load from EVs since they've planned to
| decomission all their nuclear power plants? The base load is
| going to be generated with coal and nat gas now. Most people
| will likely be charging their EVs at night so they'll be
| charging their cars from coal or gas rather than carbon free
| nuclear.
| ryantgtg wrote:
| There are substantial efforts in California (at least in
| SoCal, which I'm most familiar with) right now to supply
| renewable energy. I'm not sure what's preventing you from
| doing a search before asking such questions. Lotta
| information at your fingertips.
|
| https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/los-angeles-100-percent-
| renewa...
|
| https://ceo.lacounty.gov/2021/12/07/sustainability/staying-
| p...
| nicoburns wrote:
| My neighbourhood (London, UK) has on-street charging ports.
| Some of them are in lampposts and some of them are sunk into
| the pavement (sidewalk). This seems to work well.
| itsoktocry wrote:
| This seems to work well when 95% of cars are still ICE.
| nicoburns wrote:
| Why would it not work with 100% EVs?
| chrisseaton wrote:
| Most people don't need to charge every night. You likely don't
| refuel every night, do you?
|
| The average commute is like 40 miles a day. Go somewhere and
| recharge once a week while you have a coffee.
| nicbou wrote:
| That's true for city dwellers in the west. I wonder how a 100%
| electric world would work in the parts of the world where the
| Toyota Hilux is a necessity.
| chrisseaton wrote:
| Electric is great for off-road - all that torque at low
| speeds! And you can recharge from anything you can get power
| from - not dependent on only diesel.
| threeseed wrote:
| Rivian R1T, Ford 150 Lightning, Hummer etc.
|
| They've all shown that trucks are one of the easier parts of
| fully transitioning to EV.
| mhneu wrote:
| Let's be clear.
|
| The reason Toyota isn't all-in on EVs is because Toyota is the
| dominant player in a rival technology: gas-electric hybrids.
|
| This is extremely clear business strategy: Toyota doesn't want to
| cannibalize its marketshare in hybrids.
|
| Toyota pushed hydrogen fuel cells for years to obstruct EV
| adoption, just as Elon Musk pushed hyperloop to obstruct high-
| speed rail adoption. Both hydrogen and hyperloop are fantasy
| technology: decades away or completely impractical (hyperloop.)
|
| Only after EVs were widely adopted in many countries did Toyota
| start moving towards EVs. That was a logical business strategy
| for them.
|
| Toyota isn't all in on EVs because they make lots of money from
| hybrids. The end.
| mhneu wrote:
| https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/climate/toyota-electric-h...
|
| "Toyota Led on Clean Cars. Now It Works to Delay Them." _The
| auto giant bet on hydrogen power, but as the world moves toward
| electric the company is fighting climate regulations in an
| apparent effort to buy time._
|
| This is all very clear business strategy. And we shouldn't let
| Toyota get in the way of a better world for all of us, in
| exchange for profit for its investors.
| credit_guy wrote:
| I personally like a lot plug-in hybrid vehicles. For example the
| Toyota RAV4 plug-in has an electric-only range of 42 miles. Very
| few people commute more than that one way. If you can charge at
| home, and then charge at work too, you will not need to use gas
| for your commute. You will end up reducing your gas usage by a
| factor of 10 easily. And if we reduce all our emissions by a
| factor of 10, we are net negative (because forests sequester more
| than 10% of the emissions).
| crooked-v wrote:
| Except now you're lugging around the weight of the gas engine
| and taking on all the extra maintenance complexity of the gas
| engine, just on the off chance that for some reason you're
| going to need to road trip longer than the equivalent pure EV's
| range and won't be able to rent a more appropriate vehicle for
| it.
| josho wrote:
| Fair point. The alternative however is to spend the same
| amount (or more) on an EV and have to rent a car for weekend
| trips.
| sircastor wrote:
| That feels all over a better deal to me. I don't need a
| long-range vehicle often.
| crooked-v wrote:
| What weekend trips are you taking that are regularly more
| than 250 miles _and_ completely out of reach of a 240V
| outlet for overnight charging?
| nicoburns wrote:
| I don't own a car (I _only_ do occasional weekend trips,
| so renting as required is much cheaper). But both of the
| two trips I 've done this year met your criteria. They
| were camping trips to campsites without power outlets
| available.
| notch656a wrote:
| Not sure about OP but I live in the American southwest
| and that would be a pretty normal weekend trip. No 240V
| outlets in the desert, and if you run out of electricity
| and can't get ahold of someone you will likely die unless
| you can find a water source quickly. A 5 gallon jug of
| gas in the bed will generally at least get me to a spring
| if I run out of gas -- perhaps there's the 5 gallon jug
| equivalent of extra batteries?
|
| I'd also note the depreciation on toyota off-road capable
| vehicles that would go on these kind of weekend trips
| (like gas rav4 / tacoma) is stupid low. Like stupid
| stupid low. To the point many people who bought new in
| 2020 might get more money now than before they drove it
| off the lot. Not sure if there's any EVs with only ~29.5%
| 5 year expected depreciation like say a Tacoma Toyota
| has.
| lmm wrote:
| If that gas engine security blanket is what drivers need to
| accept buying an EV with a 40-mile range, well, polictics is
| the art of the possible.
| MonaroVXR wrote:
| So you go full ev or just going gas?
|
| There's still complexity involved in the gas one .
| Spivak wrote:
| And I would take that trade every single time compared to
| renting a car.
| jeffbee wrote:
| ICE drivetrains are extremely mature technology and the
| amount of "extra complexity" that EV absolutists are always
| barking about isn't that high. The tradeoff that pure EVs
| make is that you haul around 4500 pounds of dead batteries
| everywhere, which isn't great either.
|
| My plug-in Clarity has had zero, and I mean literally zero,
| extra maintenance visits over and above what you'd expect
| from a pure EV. I take it in every year to inspect the tie
| rods ends, ball joints, brakes etc and while it's there they
| change the oil. Whoop-de-doo.
|
| I know Tesla does not recommend regular inspection and
| lubrication for chassis and suspension which gives owners of
| young cars the illusion of maintenance freedom, but I view it
| as just Tesla having no idea how to support a fleet of long-
| lived cars and lacking the service network to make it work.
| credit_guy wrote:
| > and won't be able to rent a more appropriate vehicle for
| it.
|
| For me at least that's the rule, not the exception. I travel
| when there are holidays, and that's when lots of other people
| rent cars. Maybe I can find a car to rent, but it's going to
| be hundreds of dollars per day. A lot of people find this to
| be less than ideal.
| 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
| Can't you say that for anything? If you can go 300 miles on a
| charge and you only drive 50 miles, you're lugging around 250
| miles worth of extra battery and all of that complexity. I'm
| also transporting an extra tire everywhere!
| lmm wrote:
| A 300 mile battery is not appreciably more complex than a
| 50 mile one. The weight is a waste, but there's no extra
| maintenance burden.
| notch656a wrote:
| My maintenance burden on a 2AR-FE engine (the one in the
| rav) is ~$30 oil and filter every 10k miles (once a
| year). That's literally it. It will run 150k miles with
| literally nothing but oil changes (well you should change
| the antifreeze too, but it'll usually keep going
| regardless). IDK what the maintenance burden is of the
| battery + electric motor. It's probably lower, but then
| again $300 / 100k miles is barely a blip on the radar.
|
| It's almost certainly less maintenance for well designed
| electric but the rav4 engine is just dead nuts reliable
| with almost no maintenance. For most people it's like an
| hour a work once a year while you drink a beer.
|
| The other issue, is Toyota gas vehicles have such stupid
| low depreciation that maintenance + depreciation ends up
| coming out ahead on the gas vehicle vs EVs on the market.
| llampx wrote:
| Batteries also weigh a lot and are expensive. May be cheaper
| to add a small gas engine and tank.
| ncann wrote:
| > Toyoda also believes there will be "tremendous shortages" of
| lithium and battery grade nickel in the next five to 10 years,
| leading to production and supply chain problems.
|
| This is the main reason why I believe the current all-electric
| goals are too ambitious and not practical.
| CameronNemo wrote:
| Lithium is interesting because we could get really creative in
| how/where we get it. For example, GM is planning to buy Lithium
| extracted from the Salton Sea. [1]
|
| Nickel and Cobalt are, IMO, tougher to solve for. Nickel is
| rich in places that are not North America, which will run up
| against certain domestic sourced stipulations in EV
| subsidies... We have one nickel mine as of 2021 and it produces
| far less than the Eurasian mines.[2]
|
| I think an EV future will really depend on innovative battery
| chemistries like LiFePO4.[3]
|
| [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/the-salton-sea-could-
| produce...
|
| [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1284604/us-nickel-
| mine-p...
|
| [3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate
| panick21_ wrote:
| Nobody questions if these metals exist or not. But developing
| a mine in North America takes 5-10 years and often longer.
|
| If you want to have a real mine that might actual produce
| lithium in North America look at Thacker Pass. The Salton Sea
| is mostly marketing, its totally unproven technology not
| anywhere remotely close to production. There have been
| countless junior minors who have made great promises about
| lithium production in the last 10 years and virtually all of
| them have failed.
|
| It will take much, much longer then most of these companies
| say to produce anything close to battery grade lithium.
| Lithium is really tricky to get to the right quality, and
| each mine needs to go threw a multi year very process to go
| threw valuation at every car and battery maker. So even if
| you have a mine partially operating, it takes years and years
| after that until your lithium might actually show up in a
| car.
|
| Sodium and LFP batteries do help. But LFP still needs lithium
| and the massive production facilities already built for NMC
| and NCA can not just be changed.
|
| This is a bigger problem then people realize, specially
| lithium. After all these years there is still only a handful
| (less then 5) of companies that produce it at the required
| grade. And of those many are not expanding fast.
| CodeWriter23 wrote:
| That, and available generation capacity.
| Gatsky wrote:
| Well I live in a very wealthy country by global standards, with
| lots of space and sun, and many climate concerned people clearly
| influencing politics, and plans to export renewable energy to
| other countries. And there is essentially zero charging
| infrastructure for EVs, and no concrete plan to change that.
| shusaku wrote:
| Why do we need a plan? As soon as the demand gets there you're
| going to have a thousand different startups competing to build
| it. We're going to see better solutions than we can imagine
| right now once the competition begins. Countries have spent the
| past century fighting wars to secure access to oil, but now
| we're afraid of being brought to our knees by the prospect of
| building a charging network?
| svnt wrote:
| I wonder why the joint world's largest ICE maker would argue
| against a technology they haven't developed to the same standard
| as nearly every one of their competitors. Weird.
|
| Surely he's only thinking of the environmental consequences and
| shared material constraints of manufacturing so many vehicles.
|
| Couldn't be that they planned for a slower adoption and the
| pandemic accelerated the curve and now they've fallen behind.
| Couldn't be that they failed to secure critical contracts
| thinking that this attempt at scaling would fall short and then
| they could pick up those same contracts later for cheap.
| etempleton wrote:
| I believe EV adoption will be slow and then sudden. Yes, there
| will hurdles and EVs aren't going to make sense for everyone, but
| there will be a tipping point. Right now you have EVs that check
| all the boxes and but are over $45,000.
|
| Even with premium pricing, demand already outstrips supply for
| electric vehicles.
| coffeefirst wrote:
| This is also how it went with smartphones. First it's a status
| symbol and a luxury item, then a few years later there seems to
| be a cliff and suddenly it's highly unusual not to have one.
| threeseed wrote:
| The issue isn't supply/demand it's the availability of
| resources e.g. lithium.
|
| And those won't just just magically jump from none to
| plentiful. It will be more gradual.
| llampx wrote:
| I'm a layman but to me its about optics when Toyota doesn't have
| any EVs but is spending money on hydrogen development, and the
| aeons-old Prius. Most people are convinced that gas vehicles are
| not the future, and that renewable-energy powered personal
| vehicles and mass transit are.
|
| BMW and Toyota just look like they got caught with their pants
| down by not having appealing vehicles, and other companies are
| now stealing their lunch. On top of that, Toyota has had some
| shady business too: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/07/30/toyota-
| actively-lobbyin...
| faeriechangling wrote:
| Maybe that's the optics but I'm inclined to believe him, the EV
| adoption plan relies on technology that doesn't exist and the
| simplistic idea we take all the gas cars and replace them with
| electric cars I'm not convinced actually scales. I think we're
| literally going to run out of the worlds natural resources
| before because we get even close to making enough EVs.
|
| I actually see a need to shift more people to not using cars as
| much or at all, and having those people walk/bike/transit. I
| also think lighter EVs such as scooters may be popular and they
| have ones with swappable batteries which work like swapping a
| propane tank. I also think the hybrids Toyota sells which
| require significantly less of certain resources will be
| appealing. Also finally telecommuting will be a big thing among
| white collar workers who won't need anything more than a hybrid
| or light EV.
|
| My money is on Toyota being correct and is seeing gas cars
| being around for quite a lot longer than anticipated. I see the
| person of the future being less mobile. However technology is
| inherently unpredictable and advances in mining in particular
| could change this.
| BaculumMeumEst wrote:
| > I think we're literally going to run out of the worlds
| natural resources before because we get even close to making
| enough EVs.
|
| What are you expecting us to deplete from the planet in the
| next 30ish years?
| generalizations wrote:
| > shift more people to not using cars as much or at all, and
| having those people walk/bike/transit
|
| This only works for city dwellers.
| ENGNR wrote:
| Anecdotally I used to have to drive 30 minutes through
| suburbia for any "stuff", but then moved to a town of ~3000
| people and everything is still available, and it's at most
| a 5 minute drive away. I do have a car but also cycle quite
| a bit (eg to work) would do just fine with no car at all
| [deleted]
| bertil wrote:
| Does that mean that you expect the rural population to pay
| heavy taxes on pollution, or to be reduced dramatically?
|
| They will be far more exposed to the increase in floods,
| fires, and hurricanes. Insurance will likely refuse to
| cover the most common and destructive scenarios.
| dominotw wrote:
| And basic fitness which unfortunately rules out 80% of
| population in usa. Thats really the problem not lack of
| bike lanes that HN seems to belive is the panacea.
| pdabbadabba wrote:
| It's true that Americans are overweight and out-of-shape,
| on average. But surely it's an extreme exaggeration to
| say that 80% of them are so unfit that they couldn't walk
| or bike to work.
|
| Of course, their poor fitness may make Americans less
| likely to _want_ to walk or bike, but I don 't see why
| we'd assume that this can't be overcome with the right
| set of incentives.
| nobodyandproud wrote:
| It's not a permanent condition. During my teen years I
| worked to running 5km in 18 minutes (teen angst and
| crushes did wonders for motivation).
|
| 30 years later and 30 lbs overweight (thanks, covid), and
| I decided to start going to the gym and I added the
| treadmill.
|
| After one month my heartrate at the 10 minute mark at a
| leisurely 12:00 minutes a mile pace (nowhere near my teen
| years) went from 150 to 130.
|
| Mostly it's been about getting my diaphragm back in
| shape.
|
| If I were smarter or more sensible I would've started
| with the elliptical first, but expensive running shoes
| and better techniques have kept my back and knees from
| hurting (so far).
| guelo wrote:
| Lack of basic fitness is not a permanent chronic
| condition.
| dominotw wrote:
| It is. How many people do you know that have turned
| things around, i am guessing not many.
| atlasunshrugged wrote:
| I don't think this is true, there are also e-bikes which
| while much less exercise would mitigate the difficulty
| and still be some physical activity for Americans
| guelo wrote:
| Yet somehow humans managed to live through 99.99% of our
| history without cars.
| bcrosby95 wrote:
| Humans managed to live through 99.99% of our history
| without 99.99% of what we currently rely on to live.
| yjftsjthsd-h wrote:
| And people lived their whole lives within what, a 50-mile
| radius?
| timeon wrote:
| Most people still do.
| skrowl wrote:
| If we had a magic button that replaced all gasoline cars with
| electric cars in the USA this moment, the power grids would
| basically explode from the additional load from everyone
| charging them, in all 50 states.
|
| We're DECADES away from having enough power generation and
| delivery to get everyone on electric cars, and that's not
| even considering the "How the F is everyone going to afford
| to buy electric cars in the first place?" problem. Look at
| the lines to charge EVs in states like California already,
| and that's with ~5% of new car sales being EVs. Multiple that
| by a factor of 20 and just laugh.
|
| Every state that has passed "We're going to ban the sale of
| gasoline cars after 20xx" is going to have to repeal it in
| shame, or just force their residents to drive to the nearest
| red state when they want to buy a new car.
| bertil wrote:
| We are less than a decade away from triggering lynchpin
| mechanisms that will completely transform the world, and
| force half of humanity to either emigrate or die.
|
| If you believe that it will take longer to have enough
| electricity for everyone to drive an electric car, I'm
| worried that the adjustment variable is not going to be
| what portions of cars are electric (what you have in mind),
| or what portion of the population uses a car (where I think
| we can make the fastest progress) but what's the size of
| the population.
|
| However, if less than half of the population of a country
| dies (which seems likely in the US, for instance, although
| not by a lot) then it means it's a favoured country
| compared to areas that would have become inhabitable.
| Immigration to that country will explode. I'm not sure how
| the population will continue to decrease given that
| pressure, but it will have to.
| MrsPeaches wrote:
| I think your point about light EVs is salient. To me, current
| EV cars are like those early IC "cars" that looked like horse
| drawn carts with a motor [1].
|
| The prime mover has changed (even though the innovation sits
| with the energy source i.e. batteries) and that often leads
| to change in the form factor of vehicles.
|
| [1] e.g. https://www.supercars.net/blog/wp-
| content/uploads/2015/03/19...
| Consultant32452 wrote:
| The solution has always and will always be that the wealthy
| do whatever tf they want and the peasants get stuck on
| whatever the people in charge decide they are stuck on.
| almost_usual wrote:
| > I actually see a need to shift more people to not using
| cars as much or at all, and having those people
| walk/bike/transit.
|
| This is the solution but I guess we'll see how consuming our
| way to 'sustainability' works.
| awer897tyaiurfh wrote:
| tomohawk wrote:
| I think you've hit on something here. In this day when what is
| seen on social media is all that matters, practical engineering
| and science concerns definitely take a back seat.
|
| But there's another explanation for why Toyota does not have an
| EV lineup - they have been pursuing hybrid, hydrogen, and other
| tech for years. They have a long term vision instead of one
| that is just based on what is in social media or on what
| politicians have suddenly decided to subsidize. Since when is
| ground truth found on social media or from politicians?
|
| It remains to be seen who will be caught out.
|
| It also seems nonsensical to place all our eggs in the EV
| basket.
| otabdeveloper4 wrote:
| Putting a metric ton of (what is essentially) rechargeable AA
| batteries into a car-shaped form factor is like strapping a
| jetpack to a horse. This is not the way of the future.
|
| The future will probably involve lots of electric
| transportation, but it won't look like _this_. (But judging by
| the electric transportation that people are _actually_ buying
| right now, it will be much more personal and portable.)
| Tagbert wrote:
| The batteries in EVs are nothing like AA batteries or even
| the lithium batteries in phones and laptops. The EV batteries
| are built more robustly with sophisticated charging systems
| and prevent them from overcharging to 100% or discharging to
| 0% (most indicated charge min and max are actually less to
| preserve battery health). They have active heating/cooling
| systems to keep the battlers within sustainable ranges. They
| are constructed of modules so if there are cell failures only
| that module needs to be replaced not the whole battery pack.
| Battery warranties are around 8-10 years and, while some have
| failed in the last 10 years or so, it is clear by now that
| most will last much longer than that.
| ddoolin wrote:
| I agree Toyota doesn't have very appealing vehicles, but they
| were the best-selling manufacturer for one Q last year and
| they've been #2 only to GM for quite some time. Given what
| happened during COVID supply issues, I'd say they're the ones
| stealing lunches.
| 7speter wrote:
| They don't have appeal? Only if you want to become friends
| with your mechanic.
| TheLoafOfBread wrote:
| Toyota is probably only company who understands that poor
| people can't afford BEVs and will be left behind. And
| introducing another EV Hummer or Cybertruck for 100k USD won't
| really help them to get affordable EV.
|
| I am convinced that BEV are not the future, because there is
| not enough of material, especially there is not enough copper.
|
| Assoc Prof Simon Michaux on shortage of copper
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnKuBocc
|
| https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/copper-is-key-to-electric-ve...
| tuatoru wrote:
| Michaux takes a long time to get to the point, even at double
| speed. None of what I have heard in the first 20 minutes is
| new to anyone who followed the Peak Oil debate back in the
| 2005-2009 period. His estimate of required battery capacity
| for short-distance and light vehicles, around 62 TWh, matches
| a quick back-of-the envelope calculation, so that's good.
|
| The description for the video is unpromising, blurring the
| distinction between reserves (known, characterized, owned)
| and resources (varying degrees of knowness, characterization,
| unowned), and implying we face a binary situation: plenty of
| resources, and then nothing. The world is not like that.
|
| There is always a spectrum of possibilities. We have an
| extremely abundant adequate substitute for copper for
| electrical uses: aluminum. The bulk of electrical
| distribution systems is steel-cored aluminum wire.
|
| Is copper better? Yes. Is it _so much_ better than aluminum
| that the latter is unusable? No.
|
| Aluminum's lower electrical and thermal conductivities will
| require design changes (higher voltage, lower current), and
| overall efficiency won't be as good as with copper. Very sad.
| But aluminum is still perfectly usable for EV motors.
|
| And there are ways to eke out the copper we have, such as
| copper-clad aluminum wire (CCAW), which is already
| extensively used in loudspeakers. Some high currents flow in
| subwoofer voice coils.
|
| As for poor people being left behind, resource prices are not
| the cause. Very few mineral resources are used in providing
| education and healthcare, and none at all in depressing wages
| or preventing houses from being built.
|
| (And the high-priced vehicles being sold now pay for the R&D
| to improve the new technologies. The first portable computers
| and cell phones were ridiculously expensive toys for the
| rich, as well.)
| TheLoafOfBread wrote:
| Big problem with aluminum is that it has less conductivity
| and thus is generating more heat in same diameter. However
| heat and air will cause aluminum cable to oxidize and as a
| result it will get
|
| 1) brittle to point of falling apart.
|
| 2) increases it's resistance through oxidation, which will
| increase heat
|
| This is a big problem in Eastern Europe where communist
| were building concrete apartment towers wired with aluminum
| wires, it used to be major reason for fires before those
| towers were reconstructed and aluminum replaced by copper.
| Today it is forbidden to use aluminum wires in apartments
| and houses.
|
| Aluminum is more-less unusable in installations where you
| can't shield it from air and where aluminum will heat up.
| sudosysgen wrote:
| You can compensate for conductivity with larger diameters
| (modulo the skin effect, but there are options there
| too). At that point wires don't heat up so much and thus
| don't oxidize.
| Tagbert wrote:
| Poor people can't afford new cars of any kind. What they need
| are more EV cars getting into the used market. And more
| mandates for apartments and businesses to provide overnight
| A/C charging outlets.
| Spivak wrote:
| That only gets you some of the way there. The next hurdle
| is that a lot of low income housing is street parking only
| that isn't always reserved for the owner. So this is an
| awkward situation where we will probably also need
| residential streets to come with either city paid for
| charging or a change in zoning so that owners can reserve
| the spots in front of their house and install chargers.
| Tao3300 wrote:
| > need residential streets to come with either city paid
| for charging or a change in zoning so that owners can
| reserve the spots in front of their house and install
| chargers
|
| Which I'm sure will work _great_ in those neighborhoods.
| cmurf wrote:
| Can poor people afford to maintain either hybrid or
| electric? What's the third party repair market? There is no
| right to repair a Tesla or anything using that business
| model.
| 7speter wrote:
| Except at least one car company wants people to only have
| the option to lease their electric cars and turn them back
| in at the end of the lease. If this cash grab attempt
| becomes the trend...
|
| https://jalopnik.com/ford-credit-wont-allow-lessees-to-
| buy-o...
| Bhilai wrote:
| BMW? Why makes you think they are caught with their pants down?
| BMW i4 is a fantastic EV and I think a lot of people would go
| for it instead of a Model3 which has a better range but pales
| in comparison when it comes to interiors, luxury and ride
| quality.
| _s wrote:
| Adding to this - the i3 was a game changer in terms of
| materials and manufacturing. The i8 is still an excellent
| hybrid sports car - available long before the electrically
| boosted exotic cars were released.
|
| Lastly - I was happily driving an electric 1er convertible in
| Berlin under the DriveNow car share back in 2012!
|
| They've been in the EV game far longer than people realise;
| and have the iX1, i3, iX3, i4, i7, i8, iX either available
| now or within the next 12 months.
|
| This is not to gloss over their current subscription based
| hardware access, which is in poor taste, but obviously people
| are still buying their cars.
| rock_hard wrote:
| Sales numbers disagree with you
|
| The Model3 outsells any BMW model by large margins
| tmh88j wrote:
| More sales doesn't mean better, especially considering
| BMW's offerings are newer. Most people don't know anything
| about cars and Tesla the default EV to them because they
| were the first to achieve mainstream success. I've known so
| many people who never cared about cars suddenly willing to
| spend 2x the amount they previously did on a car all
| because they want an EV and Tesla is all they know. They
| don't care about other brands and most aren't interested in
| learning more, just as they were before owning an EV. BMW
| is far superior to Tesla when it comes to the "car" part,
| as in the materials, build quality and driving dynamics.
| Same goes for the Taycan.
| resoluteteeth wrote:
| Toyota has phevs (plug-in hybrids) that can run fully off of
| the battery. They have gotten a lot of shit over the past year
| for arguing that these should be incentivized by the government
| in addition to full electric vehicles, but I think there is
| some merit to their position.
|
| Right now a lot of people who buy electric cars are wealthier
| people who also own other cars. This is not inherently bad and,
| for example, if a household that is going to own multiple cars
| either way chooses to make one of those electric it may be a
| win for the environment, but if people are buying extra cars
| because they are excited about electric cars but also need a
| conventional car when they go longer distances, that may not
| actually be that great.
|
| Until there are sufficient charger networks everywhere, it
| might actually be better to incentives phevs to build up the
| infrastructure and ensure that people who can only afford to
| own one car but need to travel longer distances can still use
| electricity for shorter trips in the form of phevs rather than
| continuing to use conventional cars. It's not completely clear
| if EV adoption will continue to accelerate or if it's going to
| hit limits when we run out of people who can easily switch.
| Toyota may have a point in that the current timetable for full
| adoption of evs may be unrealistic, and if it is, it might be
| better to compromise slightly more if it makes it easier to
| build up the infrastructure on a more realistic timetable
| rather than risk hitting a wall
|
| If we set the goal as 100% of vehicles being EVs in a
| relatively short amount of time, we're going to run into
| problems who are currently unable to use EVs because of the
| lack of a fast charger network. (In reality, battery swapping
| would probably make sense for longer trips once everyone is
| using evs, but there is zero infrastructure for that right
| now.)
|
| That said, another issue with electric cars in general is that
| for the type of short trip where they make the most sense, it
| might arguably be better for the environment to focus on
| electric public transportation when possible anyway (especially
| non-battery-powered street cars and light rail which aren't
| affected by supply of some of the elements required for
| batteries).
|
| Also, if we can't hit the targets for EV adoption we may have
| difficulty hitting environmental goals in general.
| Wesmio wrote:
| In Germany we just stopped incentiving them because people
| just didn't charge them.
|
| They just didn't care.
| llampx wrote:
| Maybe now with gas above 2EUR/liter, we'll see more people
| charging their PHEVs. However they are also a rich person's
| toy, since you need to charge them at home to have the
| battery-powered miles be cheaper than the petrol-powered
| ones ergo you need a home with a garage.
|
| At public chargers you pay much more than at home per kWh.
| On top of that, they have been incentivized (0,25 Regelung)
| for companies as fleet cars (Dienstwagen) and companies
| give out free petrol so you have no incentive to charge it
| at home using your own electricity when you can just fill
| up otherwise with free petrol.
| Wesmio wrote:
| Personally I think economic of scale is happening with EV
| and just skipping everything in between will just solve
| those issues.
|
| Better longer cheaper batteries for everyone.
|
| We are on the road to solving solid state batteries.
|
| I don't think we are throwing enough resources against
| those topics.
|
| This would solve so many issues at once.
| asah wrote:
| easy solution: expensive gas.
| TheLoafOfBread wrote:
| We have 50% tax on gas in EU, it does not work, only
| pushing up prices for end customers
| Tagbert wrote:
| Was that for private vehicles that people bought themselves
| and paid for the fuel and electricity themselves? I
| remember a few years ago a study out of Europe of plugin
| hybrids that found the drivers didn't plug them in. One the
| details came out we found that those were corporate
| vehicles assigned to them mainly for business use. They
| were reimbursed for gasoline purchases but were not
| reimbursed for electricity. The result was that they chose
| the option that results in less personal cost to them.
|
| I find it hard to believe that people will elect to spend
| more money on a plugin hybrid and then not bother plugging
| it in as long as they have an easy access to a power
| outlet. Just the extra cost of gasoline in that scenario
| should overcome the minor effort of developing a habit of
| plugging in when you get home.
| MonaroVXR wrote:
| I'm not sure if I'm right, but there was a thing/way in
| the Netherlands to reduce the initial cost of the vehicle
| to make it incredible cheap.
|
| They are called "Foutlanders" because of that.
| MerelyMortal wrote:
| Doomberg has a position that I agree with:
|
| It's better for 6 or 7 plug-in hybrids to be developed using
| the same amount of batteries materials it would take to make
| one fully-electric vehicle.
|
| Most people make short-range daily trips each day, and they
| could probably do 100% on the battery of a hybrid. The gas
| portion would kick-in when they do an occassional longer
| trip.
|
| No significant change to infrastructure would be required,
| and gasoline use would go down dramatically as most people
| would be using the smaller battery most of the time, and
| adoption would be way faster than fully-electric.
| CameronNemo wrote:
| The Prius Prime (PHEV) maxes out at 25 miles of electric
| range. And that is under optimal conditions. The average
| daily commute is longer than that.
| mlyle wrote:
| I have a Honda Clarity. 48 mile range, though I only
| charge it to 90%.
|
| I've gone 15,000 miles now on about 30 gallons of gas. I
| keep trying to get over "500 miles to the gallon" but
| that's a limit I have a hard time surpassing: occasional
| long trips or forgetting to charge does me in.
|
| (Not to mention the car will occasionally burn gas on its
| own just to confirm the engine is in good working order).
|
| It seems like it would be a waste for me to have a
| 200-300 mile range and no engine. The longest trips would
| still have been less convenient. And you could build 4-7
| cars like mine with the same battery resources.
| ok_dad wrote:
| Ideally one could configure their hybrid car with
| different battery to gas tank ratios when they buy it, or
| perhaps even for a fee after purchase.
| julianz wrote:
| Yup, we've had a Prius C for nearly 10 years, it's been
| faultless and has consistently used less than half the gas
| of the other family car. That's a real world difference,
| not a hypothetical future one.
| spacehunt wrote:
| Don't they have the bZ4X? Granted it's only one model, but
| still it's one more than "doesn't have any EVs".
| CameronNemo wrote:
| That is a 2023 vehicle AIUI.
| spacehunt wrote:
| They issued one recall already, so I assumed at least some
| are in customers' hands?
| mint2 wrote:
| you mean parked useless into their garages. Their wheels
| literally fall off and they are not supposed to drive
| them. Toyota offered to buy back all of them.
| Woodi wrote:
| +1 Toyota's CEO :)
|
| Also when enviromental crisis will ends we can back to smoking
| oil or something similiar - reverse engeneering of oil engines
| technology can give terrible results...
|
| Also industrial vehicles running on electricity is not even in
| sight me thinks.
| DangitBobby wrote:
| How do you imagine the environmental crisis ending?
| CodeWriter23 wrote:
| When climate cools as a result of our current grand solar
| minimum process and tips the balance from perceived
| anthropogenic to undeniably astrophysics as being the primary
| driver of the Earth's climate.
| Tagbert wrote:
| Sure. Are you prepared to wait 10's of thousands of years
| for that to happen?
| svnt wrote:
| Parent said environmental not global warming though. Do you
| have a response to that or is the script just
| s/environment/climate?
| DangitBobby wrote:
| That would be nice.
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