[HN Gopher] MythBusters Helped a Wrongly Convicted Man Prove His... ___________________________________________________________________ MythBusters Helped a Wrongly Convicted Man Prove His Innocence Author : gbourne Score : 105 points Date : 2022-10-09 18:38 UTC (4 hours ago) (HTM) web link (innocenceproject.org) (TXT) w3m dump (innocenceproject.org) | hanniabu wrote: | > Deceptive tactics -- like offering leniency in exchange for a | confession or falsely telling children they can go home if they | confess -- have been identified as risk factors for false | confessions, and young people are especially vulnerable to | falsely confessing as a result of these tactics. | | The great american justice system | pstuart wrote: | The American _Legal_ System. Justice is for sale. | gnicholas wrote: | So if it's impossible to light a pool of gasoline with a match, | what is being used in movies when this appears to happen? | MichaelDickens wrote: | I would think any fire on film is either CG or, if real, is lit | by a hidden fuse being controlled by a pyrotechnician. It would | probably be too dangerous to have an actor directly light a | fire using a match. | suzzer99 wrote: | I've lit a pool of gasoline with a match before. Screwing | around in junior high melting our plastic toys in the driveway | - not something we should have been doing. | giantg2 wrote: | A lot of times it looks like they're burning alcohol to me. | | It's even more funny when they show them lighting jet fuel with | a match or lighter. | mlindner wrote: | This reminds me of how people get angry at me whenever I poke | holes in the science of movies. Movies affect people's ideas of | what is possible and what is impossible. | | This is why I'm also quite against, in the general case, post- | apocalyptic movies that predict a future based on non-science | impossible things happening. Many spaceflight movies and TV shows | for example show very bad things in the future giving people a | false impression that the future will be worse than the past even | that goes against direct evidence that throughout human history | things have trended better, on average, every single year with a | few moments of worsening. | taberiand wrote: | How do you reconcile your prediction of a better future with | the current scientific projections of the effects that climate | change (and a myriad other environmental challenges and | resources issues) will have? | | Especially given that our current position at the top of the | trend of improvement is in enormous part due to fossil fuels - | the primary contributor to climate change and our expected | future trajectory. | | Past performance is not indicative of future results and quite | frankly, to me, it all looks downhill from here. | chordalkeyboard wrote: | > giving people a false impression that the future will be | worse than the past even that goes against direct evidence that | throughout human history things have trended better, on | average, every single year with a few moments of worsening. | | This is called 'Whig history' and in my view it is an incorrect | characterization of history that gives people a false | impression that things will get better without them having to | understand the enabling factors that lead to social | improvement, ironically leading to the possibility of a | _decrease_ in prosperity and social welfare as people take | improvement for granted and fail to bring it about through | their actions. | emkoemko wrote: | its art.... leave it alone, these films are not documentaries | walrus01 wrote: | > Many spaceflight movies and TV shows for example show very | bad things in the future giving people a false impression that | the future will be worse than the past | | I think The Expanse got it right, in that we're more likely in | the near to medium term to get a bunch of oligarch type Jules- | Pierre Maos (Hi Bezos!) running things behind the scenes. Not a | utopia type technology + spaceflight + social inequity problems | solved future. | mlindner wrote: | The Expanse is one of the TV series that I was thinking of | actually when I wrote that comment. It'd be too long to write | down here but I feel like while The Expanse got many things | right it also portrayed all sorts of fundamental things that | were completely off. | | For example even in the first season things that are | fundamentally off that result in very different futures: | | * The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create the | situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an accident of | historical happenstance and now that we know about it, we | wouldn't try to re-create it. | | * The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear | that made many of the things in the tv series possible. | | * The idea that Earth will for some reason simultaneously | become a massive welfare state, yet still somehow have solar- | system spanning power. | | * The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor | rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining scene). | Izkata wrote: | > The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create | the situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an | accident of historical happenstance and now that we know | about it, we wouldn't try to re-create it. | | I haven't seen The Expanse, but "try" doesn't seem to come | into it: We are very close to that situation right now with | NATO and Russia. | samatman wrote: | It sounds like fiction isn't your style, basically. | | It would be a boring landscape if all the predictions which | went into every science-fiction story were the ones you | happen to like. | | Add them up, you get Star Trek. That's great: but we | already have Star Trek. | haswell wrote: | Addressing your points: | | 1. Is it recreation, or just maintaining the status quo? | Once MAD exists, I don't think it ever stops existing. | Space creates an opportunity to escape MAD thus | intrinsically a threat. It's not hard to imagine MAD | proliferating as humanity proliferates. It may seem obvious | that this is the wrong path, but it's not obvious that | major world players see things the same way. | | 2. I think books and shows tend to be made about periods of | time that involve extraordinary discoveries because the | time prior to this is not particularly interesting and | there wouldn't be anything to tell a space story about. | | This show also sets out to show the relatively near future | and early stages of space exploration which means it must | necessarily come on the heels of some major breakthrough. | | 3. Why do the two have to be mutually exclusive? Is this | too far off from current reality? | | 4. Look at the current climate towards human rights and the | trend towards losing them worldwide. Recent major decisions | by the US Supreme Court also come to mind. That old | behaviors would re-emerge in environments subject to less | oversight seems pretty plausible. | | Obviously everyone has personal preferences, but $0.02. | lozenge wrote: | "The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in labor | rights and labor safety" | | Our economy has always relied on people lacking labor | rights or safety. From serfdom, to colonialism, to slavery, | to police fighting strikes, to banana republics | (governments overthrown for not trading on the US terms), | and today hundreds of millions work in unsafe conditions or | as child labor for coffee, chocolate, diamonds, precious | metals, clothing, in recycling, etc. But that doesn't make | good TV, so it's asteroid mining and there's no kids on | screen. | | As for the idea the human race has transcended past MAD... | that's just wishful thinking on your part! I could equally | say capitalism was due to historical happenstance and | wouldn't be invented today. It would have about as much | evidence. | kiba wrote: | Utopia makes for very boring television. Dystopian | megacorporations make the future interesting to watch. | | There's a reason why there's a Chinese curse: "May you live | in interesting time." | Broken_Hippo wrote: | Utopia doesn't mean that there are no more challenges, it | just means they are different. You can have space travel | in a utopia - same with time travel. There are lots of | ways to get into dangerous situations. The drama is just | centered around different things than it is with | dystopias. | thaumasiotes wrote: | > There's a reason why there's a Chinese curse: "May you | live in interesting time." | | This cannot be true, because there is no such curse. | Anthony-G wrote: | Another myth busted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_yo | u_live_in_interesting_ti... | Joeboy wrote: | > Utopia makes for very boring television. | | The original Channel 4 version was brilliant (although | the subject matter didn't age well, or maybe aged a bit | too well). Didn't see the US remake but heard it was a | dud. | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJnN3WMwDsk | mlindner wrote: | Dystopia is just as lacking in creativity as Utopia. You | can have very interesting things happening even when | overall society is getting better. For example: A TV | series showing civilization winning against some form of | evil is plenty interesting and has been done many times, | despite it not being dystopian. Right now it's become | "popular" to have things go badly or to have a set | standard start of things going badly. This is a mental | disease of movie writers in the modern era. | pehtis wrote: | About your first point, MAD was actually developed by John | von Neumann and there is nothing accidental about it. 'He | also "moved heaven and earth" to bring MAD about.' https:// | en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Mutual_assure... | gridspy wrote: | Yes, but in response to the soviet threat. | | > [The Soviets] believed that whoever had superiority in | these weapons would take over the world, without | necessarily using them. He was afraid of a "missile gap" | and took several more steps to achieve his goal of | keeping up with the Soviets | | (This is an except from the parent's wikipedia link) | klyrs wrote: | > The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear | that made many of the things in the tv series possible. | | Assuming you're talking about the Epstein Drive and not the | protomolecule... it didn't suddenly appear, it was | invented. And, surprisingly enough, it's way closer to | realistic than most scifi. | | http://toughsf.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-expanses-epstein- | dri... | | > The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in | labor rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining | scene). | | What labor laws cover the asteroid belt today? Or, closer | to home, the moon? If an earthly nation claims some | territory out there its own and seeks to enforce the law, | that's one thing. But what if a private company sends | workers out there in unclaimed space? Humanity hasn't had | access to such a lawless frontier in centuries, but we've | got a lot of ugly history to look back on. Civil rights are | not won by optimists, they're won through bloody and | protracted fights. Look no further than Apple to see that | companies in today's economy are still fully on board with | slavery and sweatshops, and Apple is one of the "good guys" | known for holding vendors' feet to the fire over human | rights abuses. | A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: | It is possible that I am biased, because I watched Expanse | and ( apart from being annoyed by how it quickly it became | a relationship show ) I absolutely bought into the premise | including the points you listed: | | * The idea that we would actively intentionally re-create | the situation of MAD in another context. MAD was an | accident of historical happenstance and now that we know | about it, we wouldn't try to re-create it. | | If there is one thing that best predicts how individual | human will behave, it is how they have behaved in the past. | It is sad, but that is the reality. Similarly, as a | species, once we know, a certain set of actions are an | option, there will be people who will aim for that set of | actions. If a creation of blackholes becomes possible, you | can rest assured, MAD will almost instantly will be | recreated throughout the known human biome. I personally | think you give humanity way too much credit than it | deserves. | | * The idea that a magical new engine would suddenly appear | that made many of the things in the tv series possible. | | Hmm, not exactly magically, but most of recent | technological wonders sped up developments in other areas | significantly to the point, where ( naturally with | exception of fusion which is always 20 years away ) we | sometimes see developments in ways that could not be | imagined before ( Operation Warp speed and resulting | vaccine come to mind ) save for science fiction's like | Rainbow's End, where a line between development and | production is.. ridiculously short. I think in the span of | human existence, suddenly likely needs to be limited by | definition somehow. | | * The idea that Earth will for some reason simultaneously | become a massive welfare state, yet still somehow have | solar-system spanning power. | | I don't want to be that guy, but not to search very far | Soviet Russia was just such a state ( with the tech allowed | to it at the time ). I am not sure how this is a | contradiction. Each society governs its own priorities. | | * The idea that there would be a complete backtrack in | labor rights and labor safety (the ice asteroid mining | scene). | | I can't even.. We can just barely force corporations to | maintain labor rights now with some semblance of control | since we have them physically operating and we can summon | the representative in court and enforce compliance. And | even then, those controls are eroded via various means. Is | it really that difficult to imagine 'when cats away' | scenario? | tremon wrote: | _we wouldn 't try to re-create it_ | | Some people argue that we've already recreated it: | https://consilienceproject.org/its-a-mad-information-war/ | | > While the 2016 U.S. election was a watershed in | computational propaganda, the same phenomenon has | basically swept the planet, beginning as early as | 2010.[..] We posit that this frontier leads toward | mutually assured destruction, like all frontiers of arms | races in weapons technologies. | [deleted] | dghughes wrote: | I find explosions are the worst specifically the sound of them. | Far away exploding things don't make a sound the instant the | explosive explodes there's a delay. What funny is the delay | makes it dramatic it's intuitive to humans far away means | delay. | Laaas wrote: | There's a 4chan post somewhere with a hypothesis about how | people are subconsciously unable to discern between fiction and | reality, even though they might be able to consciously, just as | you describe. | saalweachter wrote: | Isaac Asimov had an essay about how, in order for fantasy to | exist as a genre, you first have to understand that some | things aren't real. It's been awhile since I read it, but I | believe he does address that many people have a problem with | fantasy _because they don 't really distinguish between | talking about something and believing in something_. | _Reading_ a story about witches becomes _believing in | witches_ or _trying to be a witch_. | Fezzik wrote: | Are people surprised by this? The vast (super?) majority of | people on this planet seem to consciously claim to know or | believe in supernatural things they cannot possibly know and | that there is absolutely no evidence for. People appear to be | extraordinarily bad at distinguishing between reality and | their hopes and dreams. | pstuart wrote: | Such a great show. | | They also censored themselves when they discovered a recipe for | an incredibly easy and powerful explosive. I throw that out there | as a case of self-regulation in the marketplace of ideas. | | Edit: Adam Savage talking about it -- | https://nerdist.com/article/mythbusters-destroyed-all-eviden... | | Apparently it was _not_ well known, so not an original discovery | but still a legitimate use of the word. | | My comment was a point about censorship in that it can be the | right thing to do. I'm curious AF about what the recipe is but am | ok with not knowing and and knowing that effectively no one else | does. | mlindner wrote: | They didn't "discover a recipe". Anyone who was a kid at that | time could look up on the internet the recipes for these | things, and even pre-internet in things like "The Anarchist | Cookbook" and other such literature. | vore wrote: | I don't think that's so much self-regulation as it is the | producers would probably not let them publicize something like | that on TV and avoid some 3-letter agency knocking on their | doors. | louwrentius wrote: | Some people have a basic sense of morality, doing what's | right. | dtx1 wrote: | meh, they also censored how to make thermite (iron oxide powder | and aluminium powder ignited by magnesium) and you can get | explosive material easily almost everywhere gunpowder is | available. They censored how to make Nitrocellulose as well | which requires strong acids that are arguably more dangerous | than Nitrocellulose itself. Anyway that recipee is available on | wikipedia anyway | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrocellulose#Guncotton | anon_cow1111 wrote: | I had to look this up, it seems it was related to the myth of a | LOX tanker truck spilling/crashing and turning the road asphalt | itself into an explosive. Seems kinda weird to omit this though | as it's not really arcane knowledge (Pretty sure "The Martian" | had a scene where they blow open an airlock with something | similar). | | Other mythbusters censors include dropping an entire episode | about credit card hacks/fakes because Visa and friends | threatened to pull ads from the network, and another episode | where they accidentally caused their test mice to cannibalize | each other. | dghughes wrote: | Curb Your Enthusiasm was filming an episode during a baseball | game. A man accused of killing someone walked into frame as part | of the crowd and that was proof of his location at the time of | the crime. | | YouTube video of 60 Minutes Australia: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3V5Cj8d43Yw | JoshGG wrote: | There's a short documentary "Long Shot" about this on Netflix | that is pretty good: | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Shot_(2017_film) | giantg2 wrote: | So why is deception wrong in an interrogation? I can see some of | the other tactics as problematic, but not that directly. | pkrotich wrote: | What scares me about US legal system is; Elected prosectutors are | motivated by high conviction rate for obvious reasons (re- | election and politics of it all). Add the fact that their line of | work requires competitive personalities and you become just but a | number, especially if you don't have competent cousel. I'm not | saying ALL public defendors are incompetent, but we see to many | cases of ineffective representation when the accused cannot | afford a high powered attorney. | | Yes - you should be scared of ordinary prosectutors in suits | doing their "best" job more than a gang member for example! They | want are motivated to win at all cost... short of obviously | illegal ways. | caminante wrote: | False positives are rare in the US [0]: estimated at only 1% of | incarcerations according to the Innocence Project (mentioned in | HN article) and go even lower depending on who does the | analysis. | | Are you aware of legal systems in other countries with lower | false positives? | | [0] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miscarriage_of_justice#United_... | el_nahual wrote: | That number doesn't seem right to me so I followed the | wikipedia citation. It cites "The Innocence Project", which | actually says: | | > the few studies that have been done estimate that between | 2.3% and 5% of all prisoners in the U.S. are innocent (for | context, if just 1% of all prisoners are innocent, that would | mean that more than 20,000 innocent people are in prison). | | https://innocenceproject.org/contact/#:~:text=How%20many%20i. | ..). | nostromo wrote: | The 1% actually cites the estimation method (extrapolation | from DNA exonerations). The higher 2.3-5% doesn't. What | studies are those? | | https://innocenceproject.org/how-many-innocent-people-are- | in... | Retric wrote: | 2% of people on death row get exonerated and that's an | underestimate due to the difficulty in proving innocence. | Most crimes don't see anything close to that level of review | before or after conviction with death row reserved for the | most clear cut cases. | | So, most estimates suggest in the range of 2-10% of | convictions are probably wrongful. | polygamous_bat wrote: | If every time you enter the legal system and you have a 1% | chance of being falsely convicted, that is a broken and | dangerous system regardless of how other countries fare at | that metric. Especially if you consider that certain | underprivileged demographics are already at a higher risk of | having more run-ins with the police regardless of their | criminal state. | PebblesRox wrote: | > If every time you enter the legal system and you have a | 1% chance of being falsely convicted | | I agree with you that 1% is a high number in this context, | but I don't think the math works for what you're saying | here. | | If 1 out of 100 convictions are of innocent people, that | doesn't mean that 1 out of 100 innocent people put on trial | are going to get convicted. That rate could be higher or | lower than 1% because it depends how many innocent people | are rightfully judged innocent. | | Hypothetically, a court system that always returns a guilty | verdict could have a 1% false conviction rate if 99% of | people put on trial are actually guilty. But the rate of | wrongful conviction for an innocent person entering this | system would be 100%. | caminante wrote: | _> that is a broken and dangerous system regardless of how | other countries fare at that metric._ | | No. It's on topic because the parent singled out the US, | and I'm curious if other countries are taking procedures | that could be adopted in the US to reduce false positives | and ALSO false negatives. | tialaramex wrote: | Wait, why do you think it's necessary to _also_ reduce | false negatives? | | Suppose there are five people who stole some candy, out | of 100 people in the village. | | I claim that a system A in which three of the actual | thieves are successfully convicted, but the others escape | is _better_ than a system B in which four people are | successfully convicted, three of them are thieves but one | is innocent. You seem to disagree, insisting a better | system must also reduce false negatives. | caminante wrote: | _> a system B in which four people are successfully | convicted, three of them are thieves but one is | innocent._ | | You might need to re-phrase your hypothetical: "five | people [...] stole some candy candy", now you have three | getting convicted, a new person is innocent, but charged, | and what happened to the 5th person? | | Regardless, you're skipping a step to argue values about | how many people should be incarcerated, etc. False | negatives matter because just like you don't want | innocent people being locked up for stealing candy (or | serious crimes), you ALSO don't want a high number of | murderers freed into the streets! | TheCoelacanth wrote: | If you don't care about reducing false negatives, then | the ideal policy is simply to abolish prisons because | that results in zero falsely imprisoned people. | rfrey wrote: | They said they don't think it's essential to _reduce_ | false negatives, presumably from current levels. That 's | quite different than your reducto ad absurdum. | tremon wrote: | Does that 1% include the number of people who accepted a plea | deal, or only the number of wrongful convictions after a case | has gone to trial? | giantg2 wrote: | More like 2-10%. And that's only for the _incarcerated_. | There are many more that take deals to avoid prison time and | rotting in jail for 2 years just to get a trial, etc. | | https://thehighcourt.co/wrongful-convictions-statistics/ | | Edit: can't find the actual article. Child commenter goes | into great detail about this being a rather solid range | though. | DannyBee wrote: | Both overall cite NRE data. | | So may be better to go to the source (and the latest | version). https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Doc | uments/NRE%... | | is the 2021 National registry of exonerations annual | report. | | What you'll see, interestingly, is neither the 2021, nor | 2019 report, estimate the prevalence of wrongful conviction | directly. | | In particular, the claim "According to the 2019 annual | report by the National Registry of Exonerations, wrongful | convictions statistics show that the percentage of wrongful | convictions is somewhere between 2% and 10%. " | | It does not say that. It offers no percent view on the rate | of wrongful convictions. It only offers the direct number | of exonerations, exonerations broken down by race, by crime | type, etc. It points out lots of statistical things | (exonerations are not evenly distributed by race, crime, | etc) | | Someone else, with some other (not obviously explained) | methodology is using that to calculate wrongful conviction | rates. | | That said, roughly all sources i can find are within the | 2-12% rate bound (IE i see a number saying 3-6%, a number | saying 1%, a number saying 12-13%). | | The only truly easily found study (IE pops up immediately | on google search) is federal: | https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/251115.pdf | | The DOJ funded the urban justice institute to figure this | out back in 2017, and the rate they came up with was also | ~11%. | | In there, they point to/compare with previous studies on | DNA evidence that suggest a rate of 12.5% | giantg2 wrote: | Good catch | caminante wrote: | Where is the 2-10% in the source document [0]? I couldn't | find it in a brief glance. | | [0] https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Documents | /Exon... | giantg2 wrote: | Looks like they're referencing the LA Times but I can't | find the actual article. | caminante wrote: | I see the stat referenced in an LA Times OpEd [0] by the | fiction author, John Grisham, but hit a dead end. | | [0] https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-grisham- | wrongful... | BlargMcLarg wrote: | The actual source mentions the 1% being 'conservative'. | Considering the Duluth model rules in many DV cases and there | is an obvious bias towards not admitting false positives, I'd | be surprised if that conservative measure was a maximum. | justin66 wrote: | A 1% false positive conviction rate is not comforting. | sanp wrote: | This doesn't show what the false positive number is from | African Americans or Latinos. | rfrey wrote: | Notwithstanding the other replies to your comment estimating | as high as 5%, 1% struck me as shockingly high. | lalopalota wrote: | Most public defenders are competent at their job. | | Unfortunately, their job is to minimize the court's time spent | spent dealing with their clients. | awb wrote: | A couple things misleading about the title. | | 1) Mythbusters wasn't aware of this case | | 2) His confession under duress was the major factor in the | release | | > In 2019, the appellate court granted John post-conviction | relief on the grounds of actual innocence -- a rarity in Illinois | -- largely based on the abuse used to coerce a false confession | from John. | ergocoder wrote: | The insulin inventor wasn't aware of millions of diabetic | people either. | | MythBusters's episode was the starting point for him. The title | is okay. | woojoo666 wrote: | What kind of compensation do these people typically get? I can't | imagine what compensation would be enough for losing 35 years of | your life, especially the years 18-53. There goes almost all | dreams of becoming famous, meeting your soulmate, starting a | family, etc. | hammock wrote: | Many municipalities have an online database of all the wrongful | death settlements, etc that they (aka the taxpayer, split with | e.g. the police pension fund) have paid or are current paying. | | Once out of curiosity I googled the name of the officer who | simply "took" my online stolen property report, and found out | both they and their partner had multimillion dollar judgments | against them | caminante wrote: | Here's info for wrongful incarceration compensation at the | federal and state level [0]. | | [0] | https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Documents/Key-... | lucb1e wrote: | Takeaway from that link: around 50k/year in the USA, more or | less depending on the region, and you have to go to another | court (or similar) to get it, depending on the region. | Additionally, in some regions you might get "tuition | assistance", "medical expenses" (national healthcare for the | rest of your life I think this might mean?), "job search | assistance", and other things that you expect to get in a | prosperous country without having to have been wrongfully | convicted, and these benefits aren't even universal across | the USA after a wrongful conviction. But the 50kx35=1.75 | million USD should make for a nice retirement fund regardless | of anything else. | mlindner wrote: | None by default AFAIK. They can sometimes start a civil lawsuit | against the state. | louwrentius wrote: | Maybe this has always been obvious to everybody but the American | justice system is not about truth or fairness. | | The goal is to convict no matter what. That is how the incentives | are lined up. | | Case in point: the (famous) Serial podcast started about the (now | evidently) wrongful conviction of a teenager. He was recently | released after 20+ years because of a note found written by a | prosecutor that pointed to other plausible suspects, information | never shared with the defence. | | You are very unlikely to ever be judged by a jury of your peers. | You are much more likely to not 'risk' that and take the plea | deal. From the perspective of a European (and we have our issues) | it sounds the system is fundamentally rotten. | | The mythbuster story only highlight how basic truth finding isn't | really an issue. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-10-09 23:00 UTC)