[HN Gopher] How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. ot...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other
       departments?
        
       Author : leeny
       Score  : 121 points
       Date   : 2022-10-13 15:49 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (blog.interviewing.io)
 (TXT) w3m dump (blog.interviewing.io)
        
       | victor9000 wrote:
       | I just went through a round of interviews and received offers
       | from large, small, and medium sized companies. So the
       | opportunities are still there if you can navigate the interview
       | gauntlet.
        
         | andirk wrote:
         | I tell people that you are looking for _one_ position, not
         | 10,000. There will always be a position somewhere that fits
         | your needs. Its more difficult in down times to a degree. And
         | if your industry is in a huge slump, find a new industry!
         | There's more work to do than can ever be done.
        
       | spacemadness wrote:
       | "interviewing.io is both a mock interview platform and an eng
       | hiring marketplace (engineers use us for technical interview
       | practice, and top performers get fast-tracked at companies)"
       | 
       | The source for this article has some strong incentives in the
       | area of perceptions of increased competitiveness.
        
         | leeny wrote:
         | Author here. For what it's worth, I added the conclusion pretty
         | late in the game. When I first ran the data, it looked like
         | engineers were barely getting laid off (because of engineers
         | not opting in to layoff lists as much as others). And the graph
         | about the bar going up came in as a zero hour suggestion from
         | someone who proofread the piece.
         | 
         | Believe me, I'd be much happier if eng hiring were back in full
         | swing. With all the freezes and layoffs, we've taken a bigger
         | hit than we can hope to gain back by shilling interview
         | practice.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | avrionov wrote:
       | The article doesn't answer the question. The list is also missing
       | 2 of the big names which announced layoffs Oracle and Citrix. For
       | more detailed and depressing discussion about layoffs check [1].
       | 
       | [1] https://www.thelayoff.com/
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | Well, I wouldn't neccessarily treat the Citrix layoff as
         | directly macroeconomic related, as they are going through an
         | M&A event right now with TIBCO to make the "Cloud Software
         | Group" [0][1], and it's ex-Broadcom leadership (who are very
         | dollar/efficiency oriented).
         | 
         | [0] - https://www.cloud.com/news/press-release.html
         | 
         | [1] - https://www.cloud.com/
        
       | thwayunion wrote:
       | The market is still extremely tight for good talent in-between
       | Senior and Junior.
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | So the Senior market is saturated? this is an early sign
         | companies are getting nervous about bloat. After the '08
         | recession many companies rushed to ditch Architect titles as
         | they found that the role did not serve the interests of their
         | productive engineers or the companies higher ups. Companies
         | that had gone heavy on such talent might find themselves stuck.
         | 
         | I recall seeing talks on "Staff Engineer" and thinking that
         | this was going to be the next version of "Architect". Engineers
         | who's primary job is to write code often dislike working with
         | people in such roles.
        
           | thwayunion wrote:
           | _> So the Senior market is saturated?_
           | 
           | I am not sure I would say saturated, but yeah, the Sr. SWE
           | market is definitely not as tight as it was a year ago for
           | most role types. However, it does depend on qualifications
           | and company type. Seniors for R&D positions (so, PhD with 5+
           | years in product-focused R&D) are still basically impossible
           | to hire. Friends tell me that hiring seniors at mid-pay or
           | low-pay companies is still pretty hard.
           | 
           | The more important dichotomy is between mid-career/late-
           | career and junior. The entry level positions are _absolutely
           | saturated_. CS programs are definitely over-producing at this
           | point.
        
             | no_wizard wrote:
             | is it CS programs or is it the bootcamps?
             | 
             | I've seen the bootcamp crowd more often than not in these
             | situations coming through, not many with actual 4 year CS
             | degrees, though I've seen many of those too, but not nearly
             | as much, by an order of magnitude.
             | 
             | EDIT: could be a difference in what part of the industry we
             | work in too. I do more frontend / "design engineer" work.
        
             | oceanplexian wrote:
             | CS programs are overproducing but they are overproducing
             | the wrong skills. Most don't have the cloud skillset or
             | experience with IaC, they are never thought how to solve
             | problems within distributed systems. And their idea of
             | systems design is a Flask app talking to a MySQL database
             | on a laptop.
             | 
             | It's not the students fault, but the education system is
             | constantly behind the times, and sometimes even teach bad
             | engineering patterns that cause problems and create
             | technical debt.
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | A lot of development jobs can be simplified into a web
               | endpoint that hits a database. So that seems like a
               | completely fair project to have students work on in an
               | applied course.
               | 
               | Also, universities do offer courses in cloud computing. I
               | was helping our interns with their cloud computing
               | courses back in like 2016, so it's not a recent addition
               | either.
        
               | monksy wrote:
               | > It's not their fault, but the education system is
               | constantly behind the times.
               | 
               | Yes/no/maybe. The schools got pressured by the bootcamps
               | that were teaching the "flask app talking to a mysql db"
               | .. they simplified their classes and stop teaching some
               | things. It sucks, the people who come out of that don't
               | have the theory/flexiblity/skills coming out that you
               | would expect before.
        
             | noir_lord wrote:
             | Might be true in the US, not what I'm seeing have seen in
             | the UK.
             | 
             | Here big companies are taking kids straight out of uni and
             | boot camping them because decent juniors are hard to find.
        
               | lostcolony wrote:
               | How easy is it to find bad juniors? I think that may be
               | relevant for determining how saturated the field is.
        
           | themagician wrote:
           | More and more senior engineers are non-coding or practically
           | so. I see it everywhere. As industries have matured, people
           | have matured into higher level management roles and there
           | hasn't been enough people to replace them. There's still
           | plenty of fresh blood, software engineering actually looks a
           | lot like the labor shortages do in the rest of the market--
           | there's a lack of people who actually want to do the work.
           | Everyone wants that $150k starting comp. Everyone wants a
           | $500k director or VP role. But there is a shortage in that
           | $200-300K range for people who are actually going to put in
           | hours either writing code that makes it into production, or
           | managing junior coders and their codebases. I'm talking SV
           | salaries here. The scale is different elsewhere, but the
           | problem is the same.
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | Not for nothing, but that sounds a bit like a market peak
             | if I've heard one. Why would the person actually doing the
             | work settle for a mere 300k when the director/VP gets
             | double without doing the hard work? there is a balance here
             | - but it seems like a good time to lure engineers with
             | _real_ equity compensation to early stage startups.
        
               | dilyevsky wrote:
               | Which industry has it different? I mean there are
               | exceptions like sport teams but by and large this stuff
               | happens everywhere else too.
        
             | mapme wrote:
             | Interesting, anecdotally at a faang adjacent company, I do
             | not know of any Seniors who do not have code as their
             | primary output. Even a large majority of staff actively
             | code IME.
        
           | outworlder wrote:
           | > I recall seeing talks on "Staff Engineer" and thinking that
           | this was going to be the next version of "Architect".
           | Engineers who's primary job is to write code often dislike
           | working with people in such roles.
           | 
           | That depends. If they are actively involved and the
           | architectural decisions are sound, it's fine.
           | 
           | If they are "drive-by architects", showing up, dropping a
           | bunch of useless boxes they read on some book, and then
           | leaving before the consequences of their 'architecture' are
           | known, you are right we don't like working with them.
           | 
           | At many companies, however, staff engineers are still
           | engineers.
        
             | theteapot wrote:
             | Drive by architects don't read books. They read AWS's
             | latest product brochure and think "yes".
        
               | dijit wrote:
               | I think both exist, but you're right.
               | 
               | The majority of Architects I've brushed against in the
               | last decade have been exclusively an additional marketing
               | force for AWS with very little ability to objectively
               | reason from first principles or assist with knowledge of
               | anything outside of the AWS ecosystem.
        
               | qchris wrote:
               | Totally genuine question as someone coming from a
               | background in mechanical engineering, who now does a lot
               | of software-y things: what do you consider to be "first
               | principles" in computing? Are you talking about first
               | principles in terms of project development processes (i.e
               | how information systems evolve) or code (i.e. bits and
               | bytes, where microservices might not be the answer
               | because the network connections are guaranteed to have a
               | fundamental latency that, along with the amount of data
               | required, means you can't meet requirements because
               | [..])?
        
               | openfuture wrote:
               | I think I can name an example, which is how I am
               | approaching datalisp; https://sr.ht/~ilmu/tala.saman/ the
               | first principles bit for my context refers to: fixing a
               | standard encoding that is sufficient for the task,
               | determining inputs and outputs of model, setting a
               | general guideline for expressivity of model (space of
               | conflict-free programs), sketching interaction modes and
               | user interfaces.
               | 
               | These are the first principles in question, now from
               | there your architecture is mostly determined, you can
               | fall back on known patterns and decades of research. The
               | axioms are the architecture.
        
               | JamesBarney wrote:
               | Every architect i worked with read books.
               | 
               | The bad ones took what they read as gospel and the good
               | ones took what they read in context.
        
           | spamizbad wrote:
           | What makes a "Staff Engineer" is largely a product of an orgs
           | engineering culture. And you may have multiple people with
           | "staff engineer" as a job title that fulfill different roles
           | to varying degrees.
           | 
           | I've found those roles to be:
           | 
           | * Technical Leadership (driving major technical initiatives)
           | 
           | * Technical Contributor (shipping stuff, with technical
           | mastery beyond what would normally be expected from senior
           | engineer)
           | 
           | * Architect (planning stuff)
           | 
           | * Team Management (mentorship + taking load off an
           | engineering manager's plate if the team is big)
           | 
           | Biggest mistake I see orgs make when hiring staff engineers
           | is hiring someone whose strength is in mentorship and
           | technical contributors and decide their new role is
           | architecture and driving major technical initiatives at a
           | high level. Some are best "in the weeds" and others are
           | better planners. Know their strengths!
        
           | sarchertech wrote:
           | Staff engineer is just title inflation for what used to be
           | senior engineer. Senior engineers at most companies just
           | means this isn't your first job right out of college.
        
             | dominotw wrote:
             | I have 15 yoe and have senior software engineer title so do
             | people with 2 yrs experience.
             | 
             | I might be doing same thing over and over. Time to make a
             | radical change :/.
        
               | thwayunion wrote:
               | There's also nothing wrong with plateauing for a while or
               | even topping out, especially if you are generally happy
               | with life and career. There's pride to be had in being a
               | good individual contributor; not everyone needs to make
               | it to Senior Super Special Principal :)
        
               | spacemadness wrote:
               | I keep being told I shouldn't be writing code at my level
               | and should be knee deep in design docs and estimations
               | all day long. This is actually what happens but I would
               | much prefer to be writing software and am wondering if I
               | can even be happy in this career any longer. This
               | industry has some real bizarre notions of career
               | progression.
        
               | monksy wrote:
               | There are other organizations that are trying to deflate
               | titles as well. (Demanding the work of a lead, staff, or
               | principal in a Sr without the influence to do so)
        
               | andsoitis wrote:
               | What is the spread in compensation, scope of work, level
               | of responsibility, etc.?
        
             | spacemadness wrote:
             | Depends on the company. The industry can't seem to agree on
             | what these terms mean.
        
       | yulaow wrote:
       | Here in Europe layoffs are more uncommon but I am having a very
       | hard time finding open positions compared to just 3 years ago (
       | last time I was changing jobs ), and the situation is getting
       | worse and worse each week that passes. And for juniors is already
       | far worse: I very rarely see job openings targeted to them
       | anymore. It seems like everything is frozen.
        
         | dont__panic wrote:
         | In the US, there's definitely less hiring going on, too. Seems
         | more and more common to shut down a successful interview
         | pipeline with the "hiring freeze" excuse.
        
         | radicalbyte wrote:
         | There is a large backlash happening against blockchain right
         | now in Europe, from your profile I would assume that that is
         | the problem.
        
           | yulaow wrote:
           | Actually it's the opposite.
           | 
           | I am done with dapps and blockchain development and just
           | looking for fullstack (preferring only backend when possible)
           | typescript/golang positions.
           | 
           | I am getting a good amount of recruiters contacting me for
           | blockchain related positions but every single time I speak
           | with them their projects are so ridiculously stupid I am
           | flabbergasted that they got investors.
           | 
           | "Normal web dev" recruiters? Just got 5 of them contacting me
           | in the last 4 weeks and of those I contacted myself: most of
           | them have ghosted me. Last time I was looking for a new job
           | in 3 days I had like 30 recruiters already spamming my
           | linkedin inmail
           | 
           | Also I put myself in honeypot, talent.io and hired.com. Got
           | like only one proposal... so thinking something was bad with
           | my profile I contacted their "talent advisors" and each of
           | them sort-of told me the profile was perfect but they were
           | having an hard time getting job openings because of the
           | "current market situation".
        
             | illusiveman wrote:
             | I used to have 2 requests a week on average on Hired. Now,
             | my profile has expired twice without a single request.
             | 
             | Definitely, something is wrong with that service. Guess
             | fewer companies are using it.
             | 
             | By contrast, it's odd the day I don't get a message on
             | LinkedIn.
        
               | jmknoll wrote:
               | I've had good experiences with Hired in my current and
               | previous job searches. While there are a couple of
               | companies (the usual suspects) who use it to send out the
               | same recruiter spam that they send elsewhere, I've mostly
               | gotten targeted reach-outs for pretty solid roles. I'm
               | actually starting a job next week that I found with them.
               | LinkedIn, by comparison, is just a constant stream of
               | unsolicited garbage.
        
       | adam_arthur wrote:
       | This is likely to be the recession that halts the rapid inflation
       | in tech wages.
       | 
       | Rising risk free rate has hit growth companies the hardest, and
       | there are likely to be a large swath of layoffs right as we have
       | tons of people bootcamping and switching into the industry.
       | 
       | Supply and demand of labor in tech will enter balance for the
       | first time since ~2010. The FFR is looking to have a reasonable
       | chance to go to 5% at this point, so the pain isn't even close to
       | being over
       | 
       | Get used to not being special like pretty much every other
       | industry
        
         | dilyevsky wrote:
         | Contrary view - this will sprout more startups that were
         | previously starved for talent rest&vesting at faang&co and
         | we'll see much tighter market in 2-3 years.
        
           | adam_arthur wrote:
           | It will definitely do that if FAANG comp compresses via lower
           | equity issuances. The difference is startups generally can't
           | compensate at the level that FAANGs do or did.
           | 
           | And if discount rate stays higher, valuations will be much
           | lower at the same revenue and growth rates than they had been
           | in the past.
           | 
           | Of course this also implies the value of the dollars you earn
           | is greater via opportunity of higher yielding investments.
        
             | dilyevsky wrote:
             | > It will definitely do that if FAANG comp compresses via
             | lower equity issuances.
             | 
             | I think it will absolutely happen at least in short term.
             | In fact in many cases already happened.
        
         | chrischen wrote:
         | Tech is pretty different in that its whole point is automation
         | and reduction of redundancies. I would imagine over time there
         | wouldn't be a need for a mediocre engineers as their jobs would
         | just be done by code written one time by a superior engineer.
         | 
         | We've seem this already happen to "mom and pop" web dev shops
         | getting pushed out by the work of a handful of companies
         | (Weebly, squarespace, Shopify).
        
           | adam_arthur wrote:
           | Yup, a single dev can build out a massive business via
           | severless cloud components in what used to take a large army
           | of engineers.
           | 
           | It just so happens job growth has historically exceeded
           | efficiency gains. The equilibrium point seems close from my
           | perspective, especially if there's a shock of recession to
           | hammer tech employment
        
         | PragmaticPulp wrote:
         | > This is likely to be the recession that halts the rapid
         | inflation in tech wages.
         | 
         | I think the transition to remote combined with the recession
         | will put a damper on high tech salaries. I've already started
         | seeing pressure from our executives to explore more hiring of
         | remote workers to cut costs further.
        
       | system16 wrote:
       | > Articles like these drive engineers to speculate on Blind and
       | on Reddit, in the internet equivalent of hushed whispers, about
       | whether they're next.
       | 
       | Bizarre to reference a Blind thread from 2019 discussing Uber
       | layoffs to back up a claim that engineers are reading the
       | previously linked articles in the future and speculating about
       | "whether they're next."
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | leeny wrote:
         | Author here. Good call, just fixed to a more generic link about
         | layoffs on Blind. No shortage of recent conversations.
        
       | redleggedfrog wrote:
       | My company is not hiring developers at the moment, but there sure
       | are some people who should be let go.
        
       | theteapot wrote:
       | > At some point in the last 2.5 years, you've probably visited
       | layoffs.fyi.
       | 
       | I have?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | hitpointdrew wrote:
         | Never even knew it existed until just now. I feel like am not
         | in the minority. Weird that the author assumes this is some
         | well known site.
        
           | imwillofficial wrote:
           | Its a very well known site
        
             | theteapot wrote:
             | Within your bubble.
        
         | ggm wrote:
         | They did say _probably_ and for the post hoc case which knows
         | they didn 't it's hard to believe, but probably on balance,
         | you're right: maybe they should have used maybe?
        
       | walshie4 wrote:
       | The fact that snap's web3 team being cut is one of the listed
       | examples is pretty comical IMHO.
        
         | jesuspiece wrote:
         | yea like no shit the web3 fat got cut first lol. anyone with
         | eyes could see through all the people selling shovels in a gold
         | rush
        
           | andirk wrote:
           | They also cut their AR wing. Sounds like they're going back
           | to their laurels: d** pics.
        
         | brundolf wrote:
         | Ah yes, durable blockchains, an obvious next step for the
         | world's most famous ephemeral-messaging company
        
         | wepple wrote:
         | This is a flimsy PR piece for interviewing.io submitted by the
         | founder.
         | 
         | It worked, front page of HN is great for backlink value
        
           | xwowsersx wrote:
           | Just because you can surmise as to the obvious ways in which
           | writing this post might generally serve the interests of the
           | author or the company behind does not, in itself, establish
           | that the piece is flimsy. Your comment, on the other hand,
           | with its baseless assertion and borderline ad hominem IS
           | flimsy. Be better.
        
           | leeny wrote:
           | Founder here. This piece took my team and I months to
           | research and tag and write. We spent hours counting
           | individual layoffs in spreadsheets and on LinkedIn and
           | running and rerunning the numbers. And the conclusion wasn't
           | even what I wanted. When I started writing, I really thought
           | that the layoffs were overblown and weren't affecting
           | engineers. That's not what's happening at all.
           | 
           | Now, you're right, why do we put effort into pieces like
           | this? It's to get some eyeballs on interviewing.io.
           | 
           | But this piece is not flimsy, and I think it's not correct or
           | fair to assume that just because something serves our
           | business that it's of poor quality.
           | 
           | Normally I wouldn't say anything, but the "flimsy" thing
           | really got me.
        
             | swader999 wrote:
             | Ok, now I'm motivated to go read the article.
        
         | PragmaticPulp wrote:
         | > The fact that snap's web3 team being cut is one of the listed
         | examples is pretty comical IMHO.
         | 
         | We're seeing a huge influx of applicants who are coming from
         | failed web3/blockchain projects. It was very much a gold rush
         | that attracted a lot of people looking to strike it rich. Now
         | that the momentum has disappeared, the employees of those
         | projects are all running for safety.
        
       | sitzkrieg wrote:
       | i feel like im on another planet when single digit growth is
       | considered so bad. and this requirement for endless growth
       | invariably destroys every product
        
       | 01100011 wrote:
       | We (large FANGish) are more or less in a hiring freeze but still
       | grabbing a few new hires here and there. A friend just
       | interviewed for SSE at AAPL and seemed to have the job only to be
       | told they closed the req. I'm still getting lots of recruiter
       | spam though so I think we're still fairly early in any sort of
       | layoff cycle. The economy is still trucking. Despite many people
       | trying to be first to declare it, we're not in a recession yet.
       | All signs point to one next year though.
        
         | no_wizard wrote:
         | I'm seeing a massive uptick in recruiting for contract roles
         | compared to a year ago though.
         | 
         | A year ago (and even, 3-4 months ago) it was all full time
         | positions nearly exclusively, now it's all _heavily_ weighted
         | toward contract
         | 
         | Lots of "18+ month" or "long term" contract verbiage, but
         | contract none the less.
         | 
         | Definitely a shift.
         | 
         | Seeing more contract to hire too
        
           | supernovae wrote:
           | I've always seen a lot of those, i think the SNR just favors
           | them for now with general slow down in direct hires.
        
           | humanwhosits wrote:
           | I guess hiring for contracts routes around arbitrary
           | headcount limits.
        
         | kingnothing wrote:
         | The US is in a recession. It has seen two quarters of negative
         | economic growth.
        
           | RC_ITR wrote:
           | I feel like a broken record but, the 'Two quarters' rule is
           | an unofficial metric that does a bad job of representing
           | recessions when you back-test it (no recessions from
           | 1992-2008 in that case).
           | 
           | In the US, a recession is defined by NBER after the fact.
        
             | danuker wrote:
             | Then the "two quarters" rule is stricter. We have fulfilled
             | a stricter criterion for a recession.
             | 
             | Whether the NBER contradicts us is irrelevant. Less value
             | is going around in the economy.
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | I mean, if you're going to stick to the two-consecutive
               | quarters definition, then you would be saying that we
               | _were_ in a recession, and are now out of one. Third
               | quarter GDP estimates stand at 1.9% growth.
        
               | zeroonetwothree wrote:
               | GDPNow has it at 2.9% even
        
               | rjcjvyd77 wrote:
        
               | sieabahlpark wrote:
        
               | RC_ITR wrote:
               | Ok, let's play your game. How much of the first quarter
               | decline was due to the ports clearing and imports rising?
               | 
               | Here, I'll give you a hint (More than 100%):
               | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOxC
               | 
               | Do you think that's a real recession indicator?
               | 
               | EDIT: Said differently, if our imports were at 4Q:21
               | levels, we'd have 0 quarters of decline. So is this the
               | first import-driven recession? Because no other
               | recessions have been like this.
        
               | RivieraKid wrote:
               | No, it's not stricter. It's a rule of thumb, an
               | approximation.
        
             | nostromo wrote:
             | > In the US, a recession is defined by NBER after the fact.
             | 
             | This isn't true. There is no "official" declaration of
             | recessions in the US. NBER is referenced by some federal
             | officials, but it's just one signal of many.
             | 
             | Bar far, the most common definition used worldwide is two
             | quarters of negative growth -- and by that definition we're
             | already in a recession.
             | 
             | I think a lot of folks don't even know that NBER isn't a
             | government organization. It's a private non-profit with a
             | bunch of self-appointed academics that don't even publicly
             | disclose their meeting notes or their criteria for what a
             | recession is. People treat them like the Oracle of Delphi
             | and it's very misplaced.
        
           | beebmam wrote:
           | This is a point of contention among economists, as the
           | current economic conditions are quite unlike most others
           | seen. US/China decoupling is causing massive shocks across
           | the world.
           | 
           | The US Federal Reserve is responding to these economic
           | conditions far stronger than any other central bank, and the
           | US dollar has grown in strength accordingly. Weakening the
           | labor market is one of the goals. That will mean lots of
           | layoffs, in exchange for a reduction in inflation (and
           | domestic purchasing power).
        
           | the_lonely_road wrote:
           | This is a pointless battle. There is a US election this year
           | so there is zero chance a recession will be admitted until
           | mid November regardless of facts on the ground.
        
             | colinmhayes wrote:
             | US gov uses a non-partisan third party think tank to
             | officially declare recessions.
        
               | kyleblarson wrote:
               | If you believe there exists a "non partisan third party
               | think tank" I have a bridge to sell you in Arizona.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | > a non-partisan third party think tank
               | 
               | How can such a thing possibly be non-partisan? The people
               | running surely vote in the elections and thus care about
               | the outcome, I don't see how they couldn't be partisan
               | when their statements can have huge effects on the
               | outcome.
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | Non-partisan usually means people aren't directly
               | influenced by political leadership. Pelosi has no
               | recourse if NBER doesn't make the decision that she
               | wants, whereas, she can punish/reward the junior
               | Congresspeople in her party by withholding seats or
               | funding for election campaigns. Thus, NBER is non-
               | partisan while Democratic Congresspeople are partisan.
               | 
               | I would hope that every member of NBER votes. It's their
               | civic duty.
        
               | Jensson wrote:
               | In that case why wouldn't they try to influence the
               | election? It depends on what kind of people sit there,
               | but most academics favor democrats. So I don't see how
               | that statement gives us a good reason to believe that
               | they aren't taking one side here.
        
             | mywittyname wrote:
             | Data for Q3 will be released on Oct 27 (before the
             | election). And current estimates for ~2.0% growth. Thus,
             | the country will technically be "out of a recession" by
             | election time.
             | 
             | I wonder if these people claiming that we are "technically
             | in a recession" will suddenly start saying that economy has
             | recovered come Oct 28.
        
           | bloppe wrote:
           | Unemployment is at a historic low, which is not typical of a
           | recession.
        
             | MisterBastahrd wrote:
             | The economy is shrinking because boomers are retiring at a
             | rate faster than we can fill jobs. The Boomer economists at
             | the Fed have responded by raising interest rates so that
             | Xers, Millennials, and Zoomers don't get uppity and ask for
             | more money.
        
               | ls65536 wrote:
               | > The Boomer economists at the Fed have responded by
               | raising interest rates so that Xers, Millennials, and
               | Zoomers don't get uppity and ask for more money.
               | 
               | Maybe so, but you might want to also consider at the same
               | time what's happening to all that Boomer wealth mostly
               | tied up in retirement accounts (stocks and bonds) and in
               | the real estate that they own while these interest rates
               | rise. Sure, the effects here aren't equally distributed
               | (neither generationally nor by asset class), but hardly
               | anybody is getting away unscathed.
        
             | 01100011 wrote:
             | I believe it's typical before a recession though :D
        
           | smeagull wrote:
           | We have horrible ways of measuring economic growth. I'll be
           | worried when it starts affecting things in the real world.
        
       | mkl95 wrote:
       | My employer has literally stopped hiring engineers and product
       | roles. Sales people are still being hired in droves though.
        
         | marcyb5st wrote:
         | Aren't sales people "cheap" as their salary is negligible
         | compared to sales bonuses if and only if they exceed their
         | sales quota?
        
           | jedberg wrote:
           | Not usually. Oftentimes sales people have pretty high base
           | pay. Last time I worked somewhere with a sales force, their
           | base was the same as the engineers with the same level of
           | experience, and then they got commission on top of that.
        
           | mkl95 wrote:
           | I don't know. My bosses claim good engineers are a nightmare
           | to find. Cash is surely not the bottleneck.
        
       | ge96 wrote:
       | Small company $40-50B hiring freeze (for everyone not just eng)
       | for a month to assess.
        
       | smeagull wrote:
       | We've seen a few people leave for other jobs, and are still
       | hiring. Still getting offers from recruiters.
       | 
       | I haven't seen this play out in the real world yet beyond news
       | stories.
        
       | nobodyandproud wrote:
       | My firm is still playing the long game, so we've been actively
       | hiring talent.
       | 
       | Check back if/when a recession is in full swing.
        
         | sremani wrote:
         | Everyone plays a long game until the cost of debt and debt
         | servicing comes home. There are just too many Zombie Unicorns,
         | it is matter of time. If your company is not profitable
         | consider yourself jobless 6 months from now.
        
           | yamazakiwi wrote:
           | Are you positing that if we maintain our current trajectory
           | economically that Zombie Unicorns will start harshly cutting
           | costs. Why 6 months? I'm actually curious why that number as
           | I'm not in the environment.
        
       | conqrr wrote:
       | The so called 'bar' references doesn't make much sense. There is
       | no way to measure the performance of an individual. Leetcode
       | style questions don't indicate performance. And what cannot be
       | measured in the first place in a 4 hour interview, cannot have a
       | 'bar'.
        
         | 0xB31B1B wrote:
         | There are absolutely ways to measure the performance of an
         | individual. That leetcode style questions are not a great
         | indicator of ability to do the job well does not mean you
         | cannot predict job performance at all.
        
           | conqrr wrote:
           | The bar here is interview performance bar. There is no way to
           | judge a person's performance in 4 hours. Anything you come up
           | with can be hacked or imperfect. Therefore there is no way to
           | set a bar.
        
             | 0xB31B1B wrote:
             | You can't perfectly judge someone in an interview context,
             | but you can get pretty good if you ask the right questions
             | with the right structure. Where I work the final round
             | interview we give the candidates a week to write a design
             | doc for a recent project they have worked on and present it
             | to us in a 45 minute meeting. We deep dive on their impact,
             | the decisions they made, the tradeoffs etc. It has been an
             | extremely strong signal for us.
        
               | imwillofficial wrote:
               | I love this method.
        
             | nsxwolf wrote:
             | In my current role I've done about 30 whiteboard interviews
             | in the last 2.5 years, and I come down on the side that
             | they are about as predictive as throwing darts.
             | 
             | The most successful candidates I've helped hire in my
             | career were the ones where we had an informal process where
             | we just talked about things and I went with my gut. They
             | say that's not objective or measurable, full of bias, etc.
             | 
             | I toss my hands up in frustration.
        
       | pineconewarrior wrote:
       | I have not seen or heard of any engineering cuts in any of my
       | circle's workplaces. Only supporting staff (project managers
       | etc).
       | 
       | I clicked on a few of the google sheets linked in the article and
       | it seems (at least per my random selection) that this seems to be
       | the case at these places too.
        
       | pcurve wrote:
       | Managers are still so busy trying to fill open headcounts because
       | it's usually use it or lose it. But they know hiring freeze is
       | coming
        
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