[HN Gopher] Sweden's incoming cabinet says new nuclear reactors ...
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       Sweden's incoming cabinet says new nuclear reactors will be built
        
       Author : tpmx
       Score  : 179 points
       Date   : 2022-10-14 19:58 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | fspacek wrote:
        
       | tpmx wrote:
       | The new coalition government has pledged $40B (approximately the
       | market cap of Twitter, heh) in loan guarantees for nuclear power
       | construction.
       | 
       | They have also pledged to create legal guarantees that future
       | politicians will not be able to shut down functioning nuclear
       | power reactors without suitable monetary compensation to the
       | owners/operators of these reactors.
       | 
       | In addition to this, they are commissioning an urgent study on
       | how to rebuild Ringhals 1 and 2
       | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ringhals_Nuclear_Power_Plant,
       | about 1 GW each), two nuclear reactors that were prematurely
       | decommissioned by the previous social-democratic government and
       | shut down about 20 months ago.
       | 
       | Personally I'm really happy; I think massive expansion of nuclear
       | power is the only realistic way to fix climate change.
       | 
       | The first reactors built will be modern but traditionally large.
       | From then on: There has been a lot of interest in small modular
       | reactors (SMR) from the political party that is driving all of
       | this, and they actually got the nationally owned energy company
       | Vattenfall to begin building prototypes at Ringhals a few months
       | ago.
       | 
       | In summary: Lots of champagne bottles popping tonight in Sweden
       | in the homes of clean nuclear power proponents. We have been
       | waiting for this for a very long time. Cheers!
        
         | traceelement wrote:
         | so they get compensated if they have to close it even so the
         | government payed them to build it. this sound like a bad deal.
         | Tax payers pay for the whole thing and the owner gets even more
         | money if they have to close it for whatever reason.
         | 
         | I don't think coal is the answer but germany didn't do enough
         | for renewables during the last 10 years when we knew we would
         | shut down the nuclear plants. So now evrybody uses bad
         | management as pro for nuclear reactors.
         | 
         | I think the reasons to shut it down are always overlooked and
         | only the pros of nuclear energy are considered in those
         | arguments.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | quelsolaar wrote:
           | Its all built on very old thinking. Nuclear may have been a
           | good idea in the past, but with the rapid reduction of cost
           | of renewable, especially solar, its no longer worth
           | considering. Building a plant takes a decade, and a decade
           | from now the difference in cost will be even greater. Nuclear
           | will look like huge waste of money then.
        
             | Roark66 wrote:
             | You realise we are talking about Sweden here, not a
             | subsaharan country by any stretch. In general in Europe
             | (especially in Northern Europe) all solar and wind capacity
             | has to backed up by at least the same amount of quickly
             | available online dependable capacity. In practice this
             | means natural gas and diesel plants that are off, or
             | coal/nuclear that is being diverted elsewhere when the sun
             | shines/wind blows. The EU grid is pretty well
             | interconnected so excess capacity is pretty easy to sell
             | (up to a point). This is one of the reasons why renewables
             | can be used as a large piece of the total supply.
             | 
             | However, unless time comes when we can deploy multi TWh
             | lithium energy storage (highly unlikely - just look at
             | shortages required for electric cars) or we have grids that
             | can send let's say entire country's worth of capacity from
             | the coast of Norway to Greece on a moment's notice there is
             | no way renewables will ever go beyond few tens of % at the
             | extreme best as measured in proportion of energy actually
             | delivered.
             | 
             | The misinformation on the subject has been pushed very hard
             | in recent years as it benefits many special interest
             | groups. For example those articles we see sometimes about
             | "German's entire electricity supply coming from renewables
             | on a given day" or "40% of all electricity produced came
             | from renewables in first half of a year" fail to mention
             | Germany has Frances heavily nuclear backed supply on one
             | side, its other neighbor's conventional (coal) supplies to
             | lean on so we should really consider the entire system not
             | cherry pick parts that fit our narrative.
             | 
             | Am I against renewables? No, I've invested my own money
             | this year into solar (before the war started so I didn't
             | even know how electricity prices will spike) and I am a big
             | proponent of its use where possible. Unfortunately our grid
             | is not built in a way that allows everyone to have solar.
             | At the same time we don't have enough lithium batteries to
             | meet our transportation needs, so thinking we'll have
             | enough for grid level storage is a pipe dream.
             | 
             | People that are for off lining existing nuclear capacity
             | really achieve only increased use of gas/diesel for energy
             | production as well as diminish our industry's
             | competitiveness in the world through extremely high energy
             | costs. This will have zero impact on climate as China will
             | pick up all the slack we leave regarding co2 emissions and
             | some. In fact it may even be worse, because we could've
             | built same products(steel concrete etc) with a mix of
             | nuclear/renewables/small chunk of conventional generation
             | while they mostly use dirty coal.
             | 
             | All we'll achieve by this self industrial devolution is
             | furthering our dependence on countries like China and
             | Russia.
        
               | quelsolaar wrote:
               | Who said we need to put the solar cells in Sweden? We
               | could put them anywhere. Sweden is already producing
               | enough low cost energy to meet its needs, only prices are
               | high because we are exporting it to other countries
               | willing to pay. If Sweden wants to invest in power for
               | export, we could make that investment anywhere.
        
             | nathanaldensr wrote:
             | The sun doesn't shine, especially at useful angles, enough
             | and battery technology at scale isn't there. We absolutely
             | need nuclear, essentially no matter the cost, assuming
             | populations of certain countries don't want to use coal.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | The overwhelming majority of utility scale storage will
               | not be in batteries, so battery technology does not
               | matter.
               | 
               | The sun does, in fact, shine far, far more than enough.
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | Ok, I'll bite.
               | 
               | What type of utility scale storage isn't _a battery_? The
               | answer is, of course: any energy storage setup is a
               | battery[1].
               | 
               | A more generous interpretation of your comment is that
               | you meant _won 't be chemical batteries_.
               | 
               | In which case, I'll bite: what then?
               | 
               | 1. _Energy storage is the capture of energy produced at
               | one time for use at a later time[1] to reduce imbalances
               | between energy demand and energy production. A device
               | that stores energy is generally called an accumulator or
               | battery._
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | Sweden generates 40% of the current power generation from
               | hydro. Adapt that to be more flexible than baseload and
               | Sweden has amazing capabilities to run an entire
               | renewable grid mainly based on wind with a minimal amount
               | of chemical short-term storage.
               | 
               | There are few countries with better opportunities for
               | renewables than Sweden.
        
             | r00fus wrote:
             | Renewables don't give you baseload power. So renewables +
             | nuclear is a good balance.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Renewables + storage will provide massively cheaper
               | baseload power.
        
               | zkomp wrote:
               | Will not happen. "green" energy is not green- it consume
               | massive amount of resources, it is expensive, short
               | lived, destabilize the grid. I'm super happy my country
               | is finally waking up from the horrible green hypnosis.
        
               | anonym29 wrote:
               | Enjoy paying for storage. At least in the US, even if we
               | get storage down from $438/kWh (Jan 2022 grid-scale
               | storage costs) to $200/kWh, consumer electricity prices
               | are expected to rise somewhere between 1400% and 2200%
               | per kWh, and total cost estimates to switch the entire
               | US's power generation + distribution to pure renewables +
               | storage, while maintaining current production and
               | availability levels, are over $430tn, which is >20x the
               | US GDP, according to:
               | https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/12/the-cost-of-net-
               | zero-...
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | No civil nuke plant has ever been operated, anywhere in the
           | world, without massive government subsidies, or by coercing
           | ratepayers to pay well above market rates.
           | 
           | Looks like the Swedish public will be on the hook for
           | subsidies for decades more while the rest of Europe (France
           | and Romania perhaps excepted) coasts on renewables at ever
           | plunging prices.
        
             | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
             | Show me one place anywhere in the entire history of grid-
             | scale renewables where _the consumer 's_ costs _went down_.
             | 
             | The cost to the developer of deploying new solar / wind to
             | a grid may become more favourable, but they're selling in
             | to a market that reselles to retail / commercial clients,
             | who will, inevitably, pay more over time.
             | 
             | I think what you're argument should be is that new nuclear
             | would result in end-users paying more than they would for
             | new renewables.
             | 
             | I'm mostly convinced where you, or anyone else, lands on
             | the matter, is heavily biased by preconceptions...
             | 
             | and generally tend to think we have the resources to do a
             | many-pronged approach, and that success is less technology
             | dependant and more dependant on the competence of
             | governments and bureaucracies, and the people who
             | constitute them.
        
             | belorn wrote:
             | EU has a yearly public report on energy subsidies that
             | demonstrate factually where subsidies goes, how much, and
             | for what purpose. Nuclear subsidies are a proportional
             | small part of the subsidies, and the public get more energy
             | per $subsidies in nuclear than from other energy sources.
             | Some key findings from 2021 report:
             | 
             |  _" Subsidies to nuclear had varied between EUR3.2bn and
             | EUR 4bn between 2008 and 2019 but surged to (EUR6.3bn) in
             | 2020 due to payments for early closures of nuclear power
             | plants."_
             | 
             | "In line with anticipations in the Commission Study, the
             | financial aid to renewables in the EU27 is increasing at a
             | low pace since 2015 to reach EUR78bn in 2019. Our
             | preliminary estimations show a slight reduction in 2020 to
             | around EUR77bn. Among the 14 identified subsidy
             | instruments, the feed-in-tariff and feed-in premium schemes
             | remain by far the MS preferred tools to promote RES
             | technologies. They represented 79% of the total RES
             | subsidies, i.e. EUR61bn in 2019"*
        
             | klabb3 wrote:
             | Energy use in Sweden peaks in the winter, and especially a
             | few extremely cold days. The sun literally doesn't rise in
             | the northern parts, and the coldest days have almost no
             | wind (and frankly it's not very strong overall either).
             | This and last year, Swedes are stocking up on firewood, and
             | it's not for cosplaying reason. Several knowledgeable
             | people predict rolling blackouts this winter.
             | 
             | I would love renewables as much as the next guy but there's
             | simply not a chance that Sweden could sustain a winter with
             | the current supply. Importing helps with survival but the
             | prices are insane, since their neighbors are cold as well.
             | Dispatchable or baseload energy is necessary, and thus
             | nuclear is the only carbon neutral option. Sure, it's more
             | expensive than solar panels midday in the desert, but the
             | comparison is irrelevant.
        
             | MisterTea wrote:
             | > coasts on renewables at ever plunging prices.
             | 
             | I hope they can coast through the winter using those
             | renewables.
        
             | peyton wrote:
             | Source? Everything I can find counts PPAs which is... kind
             | of a stretch.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | PPAs at inflated prices are absolutely subsidies. They
               | impose inflated costs on users of the power, which is
               | only marginally better than on the body politic at large.
               | Or marginally worse, maybe.
               | 
               | Much of the subsidies are the public picking up the tab
               | for disaster insurance the operator is protected against
               | needing to pay for. Of course no actual insurance company
               | could afford to underwrite such a policy.
        
         | _Microft wrote:
         | Are the economics of nuclear power somehow more favorable in
         | Sweden? That seems to be the major issue elsewhere from what I
         | understand.
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | No, not really. It makes a lot of sense in all stable
           | countries.
        
           | TazeTSchnitzel wrote:
           | They aren't better in Sweden. The right's support for it is
           | not really related to the costs. I'm personally curious how
           | it's going to pan out considering the right-wing parties
           | claimed they'd be against state subsidies.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | The single most reliable feature of all right-wing parties
             | is that they are against state subsidies _unless_ the
             | subsidies are directed into their own pockets.
             | 
             | They are singularly skilled at directing subsidies reliably
             | into their own pockets. Nukes and military procurement have
             | worked well for that in past decades.
        
             | otikik wrote:
             | Look at it this way: The army is publicly supported. Do you
             | think they are against the army?
             | 
             | Problem is not public support, it's public support of the
             | things they don't like.
        
           | aPoCoMiLogin wrote:
           | the mayor issue is the coal/gas lobby, just look how europe
           | was lobbed to the point that natural gas is somewhat "green",
           | but nuclear is bad to the point some countries don't even
           | have one nuclear power plant.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | The oil/gas/coal lobby is all in on nukes, because each
             | nuke started means at least a decade of continued fossil
             | fuel burning while it is built.
             | 
             | Renewable energy projects always start producing power and
             | revenue almost immediately, displacing fossil fuel
             | consumption at an ever increasing rate.
        
         | Zigurd wrote:
         | The idea of nuclear power is good. The facts of nuclear power
         | are much less good. It is not too much to ask that lifecycle
         | costs and safety get addressed. For example, the French success
         | with nuclear power looks much less successful due to
         | decommissioning costs coming in at a multiple of estimated
         | costs. The French low-balled their estimates, to be a fraction
         | of estimates by Germany and UK. Which estimates do you believe?
        
           | DisjointedHunt wrote:
           | French politicians voted in 2015 to shut off all planned new
           | nuclear investment in favor of transitioning to "renewables"
           | 
           | It was political incompetence that led to the French plants
           | needing to have their lives extended MUCH BEYOND their
           | expected lifetimes.
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | Power generation should be publicly owned, private ownership of
         | such critical resources inevitably creates moral hazard.
        
           | elihu wrote:
           | I think it's fine if governments pay for and operate power
           | generation facilities, but at the same time I don't think
           | private companies should be prohibited from building power
           | generation facilities if they want to and they think they can
           | do it better (provided they have to pay for externalities).
        
             | the-smug-one wrote:
             | If anything's good about renewables is that they can be
             | quite small scaled. I think it's cool that I can be an
             | energy producer just with my roof, plus decentralized
             | generation = better security.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | There is plenty more good about renewables. Being the
               | cheapest source of power that has ever existed is good,
               | too.
        
               | gtvwill wrote:
               | Speed of deployment + complexity (bugger all) + safety of
               | deployment (passive product v product that can root
               | entire ecosystems) + ongoing maintenance means
               | solar>nuclear any day.
               | 
               | Nuclear is over priced, high risk centralised power.
               | Yuck.
        
             | belorn wrote:
             | Define externalities. Is a balanced grid part of the
             | externalities, ie the work needed to make sure that supply
             | can always match that of demand?
        
             | r00fus wrote:
             | Is there any nuclear facility that's privately owned that
             | didn't get massive subsidies/loan guarantees from a
             | government?
             | 
             | At the size of a 100MW+ generation facility, you need
             | government sized budgets and timelines.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | There has never been any civil nuke, anywhere in the
               | world, not massively subsidized.
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | Has there been, in recent memory, _any_ grid scale
               | generator, or roof-top solar for that matter, that didn
               | 't get significant subsidies?
               | 
               | The argument should be about whether or not those
               | subsidies would have been better spend elsewhere.
               | 
               | I'd probably argue subsidising local wind / solar (plus
               | storage), and local manufacturing of same, would be
               | better, even though I tend to argue nuclear is a reason
               | option some of the time.
        
         | cjblomqvist wrote:
         | The previous government didn't stop the shutdown planned 40+
         | years ago (due to a national referendum), in part because the
         | owners (Vattenfall) said it's not economically feasible to run
         | them anymore without subsidies. It's complex.
        
           | queuep wrote:
           | For anyone interested in this national referendum, it's peak
           | bull crap.
           | 
           | No option available to continue with nuclear power
           | 
           | https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karnkraftsfragan_i_Sverige
        
             | Gwypaas wrote:
             | You have to bear in mind that the public was hugely against
             | it. No political party dared to push for it, although
             | negotiations were held.
             | 
             | > The Moderates, the People's Party and the Social
             | Democrats held separate negotiations to formulate a joint
             | yes option with the implication that the reactors would be
             | allowed to be used during their technical lifespan, which
             | was estimated at 25 years. These negotiations finally broke
             | down mainly because the Moderates could not accept the
             | additional proposals: that the state or the municipalities
             | would own the nuclear power plants and that so-called
             | surplus profits from private production of hydropower would
             | be withdrawn through taxation.
             | 
             | Translated from:
             | 
             | https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folkomr%C3%B6stningen_om_k%C3
             | %...
        
           | belorn wrote:
           | To be fair to both sides, the electricity prices at the time
           | when the decision was made was very different from today. We
           | had prices in the south of sweden 2020 that was as low as
           | around EUR0.02 per kw/h, compared to over EUR0.3 in 2022, and
           | in 2020 the price trend was looking to be going downwards.
           | 
           | If prices had continue to go down and let say had landed at
           | EUR0.01 per kw/h this year than we would not be discussing
           | nuclear power as much. It will be a gamble to say what prices
           | will be in 1, 5, 10 and 20 years into the future, and any
           | gamble involve a cost in one way or an other. The previous
           | government made one bet, this government is doing an other.
        
             | DisjointedHunt wrote:
             | It's probably fair to say that energy demand over the next
             | ten years will increase significantly.
             | 
             | The anecdotes of the end of Moores law that signifies the
             | end of electronic efficiency through miniaturization alone
             | and the increasing adoption of energy hungry devices for
             | personal compute or lifestyle will certainly have a
             | multiplicative effect over time as these trends make their
             | way through society.
             | 
             | In such a scenario, it's hard to imagine prices being the
             | same if demand increases by even a single digit multiple of
             | the present.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Energy demand will not increase in the next decade. It
               | will, instead, fall, as it has in recent years.
               | 
               | Electricity demand will increase as that takes over for
               | other energy uses that will be collapsing.
        
               | dekken_ wrote:
               | You appear to be contradicting yourself, but I imagine
               | you don't think you are, so you might want to elaborate.
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | He is not contradicting himself. You have to remember the
               | awful efficiency of thermal engines.
               | 
               | Primary energy demand will decrease because you do not
               | lose 70% of the energy by simply cooling it like in steam
               | turbine used by nuclear power plants or car engines.
               | 
               | On the other hand, electricity usage will increase
               | because you have now replaced your 30-40% efficient
               | engines with 90+% efficient engines, but from a different
               | source. That barely have any losses from the primary
               | energy input.
        
               | dekken_ wrote:
               | Thanks for that
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | Petrol burned in a car is energy, not electricity.
        
               | dekken_ wrote:
               | The fact that you can use combustion to generate
               | electricity, means they are interchangeable. The other
               | comment is probably more on point about conversion
               | effeciency.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _that you can use combustion to generate electricity,
               | means they are interchangeable_
               | 
               | This is an accounting issue, not a question of
               | thermodynamics. Electricity typically refers to grid
               | electric. We don't count non plug-in hybrid electrical
               | output as "electricity." That's how energy use can be
               | stable while electrification increases.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | Energy security has a price.
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | The previous anti-nuclear social-democratic government
           | together with the demonstrably insane "green" party installed
           | a board in the state owned power company Vattenfall that
           | after a while managed to sort of claim that it wasn't
           | economically feasible to run the nuclear plants, with the new
           | heavy taxes the social democrats had put in place on nuclear
           | power production.
           | 
           | Yay?
           | 
           | Anyway, all of that insanity is thankfully history now.
        
             | cjblomqvist wrote:
             | No need for personal attacks. I'm not a sore loser.
             | 
             | I think it's a waste that we've not maintained the reactors
             | well enough to still have them able to run at a profit.
             | 
             | And generally that we've (the government, both sides)
             | haven't done anything about it in the last 10-20 years when
             | they had a chance to invest in alternatives (whether
             | building new nuclear or other types of energy sources).
             | 
             | If it's just a matter of taxes then I'm sure it would be
             | easy for the new government to remove them and start back
             | up the old reactors - but obviously that's not the plan.
             | Most likely it's all quite complex and lots of factors
             | leading to this outcome.
        
             | pokepim wrote:
        
         | otikik wrote:
         | Congratulations, I hope you guys are able to build them
         | quickly.
         | 
         | > I think massive expansion of nuclear power is the only
         | realistic way to fix climate change.
         | 
         | While I agree on the overall direction of this sentiment I
         | think nuclear cannot be "the" only way but "one amongst many"
         | ways.
        
           | hello1234567 wrote:
           | well nuclear is the current cheapest way of producing
           | electricity. doesn't stop from funding other cheaper and
           | future safe options.
           | 
           | mantra is cheaper.
        
             | Gwypaas wrote:
             | It is by far the most expensive method.
             | 
             | https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-
             | energy-...
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Always was. The most reliable product of the nuke
               | industry has always been dishonesty. "Too cheap to
               | meter..." No nuke has ever been operated anywhere in the
               | world without massive subsidy.
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | While wind and solar will help, nuclear is really the
           | dominant part of the solution, because of it's ability to
           | work independent of local weather.
        
             | sangnoir wrote:
             | Sounds like the ideal backup to me.
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | Nuclear has always had massive scaling issues because
             | leaving base load power generation means ever lower
             | capacity factors. Running a nuclear power plant with a 40%
             | capacity factor more than doubles the cost per kWh.
             | 
             | You can look at Frances ~70% average Capacity factor in 2
             | ways either it's a ~30% cost premium over most of the rest
             | of the world on every power plant. Or more realistically
             | ~40% of generation was at the normal ~92% CF, and every
             | plant after that was at lower capacity factors until the
             | final power plant was costing ~3X as much per kWh.
             | 
             | And that's with them having largely non nuclear countries
             | to export power to on nights and weekends. The economics
             | look even worse if every country try's to scale nuclear
             | power.
             | 
             | PS: I respect Frances investment in subsidizing nuclear
             | power, but it's important to understand the underlying
             | economics if you want to scale nuclear power. The best
             | option for a cheap nuclear grid is massive amounts of cheap
             | storage.
        
               | tpmx wrote:
               | Hello.
               | 
               | "Nuclear has always had massive scaling issues because
               | leaving base load power generation means ever lower
               | capacity factors."
               | 
               | So Swedish electricity generation used to be about 50%
               | hydro and 50% nuclear. It worked really well for decades
               | and made/kept us rich, despite our high salary costs due
               | to the welfare state. Our industries had the benefits of
               | cheap and clean energy!
               | 
               | Then we shut down half of the nuclear capacity and tried
               | to replace with wind. It didn't really work.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | I agree. Sweden is close to a best case for nuclear as
               | hydroelectric power can easily solve the dispatchable
               | generation and solar isn't viable. It's still going to
               | need significant subsides to got 50%, but nowhere near
               | what counties with less Hydro would need.
               | 
               | They even have cold temperatures to boost power plant
               | efficiency and make district heating very useful.
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | > You can look at Frances ~70% average Capacity factor in
               | 2 ways either it's a ~30% cost premium over most of the
               | rest of the world on every power plant.
               | 
               | Insufficient detail.
               | 
               | You'd need to compare levelised costs, and work out
               | whether government subsidies for this-or-that technology
               | resulted in gains and loses that were better or worse
               | than whatever else governments might have spent money on.
               | 
               | There's a good argument to be made that cheap-to-the-end-
               | user electricity is a net good for society, because they
               | can then spend that money elsewhere rather than on boring
               | old electricity.
               | 
               | Besides all that, nuclear needs a lot of cooling
               | capacity, and that's typically come from rivers / oceans,
               | which, if I recall correctly, some rivers in France where
               | recently too warm / insufficient flow to meet nuclear
               | cooling demands.
               | 
               | So nuclear isn't always a good fit for many reasons, but
               | may be a good fit for many other reasons.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | A county can't subsidize it's own power, it's got to pay
               | what it costs. Producers, distributors, and consumers of
               | electricity within a county can receive subsides, but
               | that runs into all the usual issues with planned
               | economies.
        
               | Melatonic wrote:
               | Honestly what we really need is something that we can
               | pump that power into (not a battery - something
               | productive I mean) so we can keep those reactors at
               | higher efficiency levels. I do not know what that is but
               | surely vast amounts of extra power could be used for
               | something useful no? Research? Cleaning the air? Hot tubs
               | for Walruses?
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Reactors will not be forced to shut down, in the future.
         | Instead, they will be shut down as unable to produce power at a
         | competitive price. Those that continue operating will depend
         | _even more_ on taxpayer subsidies than they do now.
         | 
         | The money that will be spent on these new reactors would buy a
         | hell of a lot more wind power than these nukes could produce.
         | But money for renewables would not go into the pockets of
         | right-wing blueblood Swedes, which seems to be what matters to
         | the incoming government.
         | 
         | When the nukes are mothballed early, every kWh they ever
         | produced will, instantly, have actually cost much more than had
         | been reckoned, as the fixed costs are amortized over fewer
         | total.
        
           | nathanaldensr wrote:
           | Pure FUD. The wind doesn't blow all the time and battery
           | technology at scale isn't there.
        
             | jules wrote:
             | Yes, this argument gets repeated again and again and again,
             | and when you ask about storage you never get a decent
             | answer. And yet, the argument keeps getting repeated even
             | by people who matter and make the decisions. When I started
             | watching debates in the Dutch house of representatives I
             | pretty much lost all hope. Of the 150 members, I'd say 145
             | are either unable or unwilling to think quantitatively and
             | do simple napkin math. Yet they are verbally very strong,
             | which makes the problem even worse. I suspect it's the same
             | in most western countries.
             | 
             | If you think I'm exaggerating, remember when the Royal
             | Statistical Society asked "if you spin a coin twice, what
             | is the probability of getting two heads?" and 47% of
             | Conservative MPs and 77% Labour MPs got the answer wrong.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | The decent answer is, simply, that storage will be built
               | when there is enough renewable capacity to charge it
               | from.
               | 
               | Storage is technically trivial. Building it all will be a
               | big civil engineering job, but we have plenty of civil
               | engineers.
        
               | jules wrote:
               | That's magical thinking. Let's start with the obvious
               | question: what kind of storage would that be?
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | Yes, why not both?
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Money is fungible. Each dollar spent on nuke generating
               | capacity is that dollar _not_ spent on several times as
               | much renewable generating capacity.
        
       | alkonaut wrote:
       | Now find out how to not just do it but do it quickly. The last
       | time (two additional reactors in an existing plant) was built in
       | 24 months and on budget.
        
       | LightG wrote:
       | One question for nuclear advocates, as I know it's full on-trend
       | at the moment:
       | 
       | What's to stop adversaries holding countries to ransom using
       | their nucealer facilities?
       | 
       | Just like Russia is playing "games" around the Ukranian nuclear
       | plant? What's to stop that being used as the new threat? We won't
       | turn your gas off, we'll threaten your nuclear plants?
       | 
       | Genuine question.
        
         | weberer wrote:
         | I'd imagine it would receive the same response as if Russia
         | launched a nuclear missile directly. In other words, WWIII.
        
         | orthecreedence wrote:
         | > What's to stop adversaries holding countries to ransom using
         | their nucealer facilities?
         | 
         | Nothing, unless you yourself have leverage. Every resource or
         | dependency is a potential weakness. The idea is to be able to
         | say "ok, if you bomb our fission plant, we'll shut off your
         | fresh water supply."
         | 
         | It's all a huge game of chess.
        
           | LightG wrote:
           | But doesn't chess rely on two half-decent actors sitting down
           | across a table from each other?
           | 
           | Clearly some actors are willing to throw the board across the
           | room
           | 
           | In which case, why are 'we' considering creating that
           | weakness?
           | 
           | I understand there is a strong wave behind nuclear right now,
           | but it does feel like we're just creating the instruments of
           | another, different, mess.
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | this is great, but couldn't a future cabinet undo this? best to
       | save the applause for when it's built and operational
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Or, hold it until they come to their senses and build out
         | massively more productive renewables.
        
           | frostburg wrote:
           | "What is base load?"
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
        
       | yrgulation wrote:
       | Electricity should cost peanuts and that should the goal of every
       | sane government.
        
       | locallost wrote:
       | It's only a shame there won't be a planet left after 20 years it
       | will take to finish these.
        
         | jansan wrote:
         | What do you mean by this? Are they actually building the
         | intergalactical highway? If not, there will eb a planet. And
         | there will be people. And they will enjoy life.
        
         | MichaelCollins wrote:
         | If you believe that, you're probably in a cult. The most
         | extreme climate models don't predict anything you could
         | reasonably characterize as _" won't be a planet left."_
        
           | naillo wrote:
           | Not to start this whole flamewar but I was totally in the
           | other camp (not yours) and then covid hit and now my trust in
           | consensus science is super worn out and have basically
           | started to believe it might be fine.
        
             | MichaelCollins wrote:
             | The "consensus science" doesn't say anything about the "end
             | of the world" or societal collapse in 20 years.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Social science is far from exact enough to predict either
               | eventuality with any confidence.
               | 
               | If waves of tens or hundreds of millions of refugees
               | leaving places they cannot live in any longer begin
               | sweeping across borders, how long will it be before
               | fascist governments, already threatening, and already
               | winning in Turkey, Poland, Russia, Belarus, the
               | Philippines, Brazil, Hungary, Italy, and India take over
               | generally and initiate wars, as they do? Such wars
               | _might_ not go thermonuclear, but they would certainly
               | disrupt fragile global trade networks.
        
               | MichaelCollins wrote:
               | People have had terrible governments before, for most of
               | human history in fact. I do expect global social
               | conditions to deteriorate as climate change strains
               | countries, but that's a far cry from the end of the
               | planet.
               | 
               | As for global thermonuclear war, we could wargame likely
               | scenarios and potential outcomes endlessly until the day
               | it might actually happen. But anybody who tells you with
               | certainty that one will happen in the next 20 years so
               | there's no sense planning for the future (e.g. no sense
               | building a power plant that will be used 20 years from
               | now) is trying to indoctrinate you into a doomsday cult.
        
           | locallost wrote:
           | I am in the cult of "living in the present, where one part of
           | the world has experienced one of the severest droughts in the
           | history of mankind, and the other the worst floods". Recently
           | I joined a second cult called "it's only going to get worse".
           | So what the heck, we've got money and time for expensive
           | solutions that take forever to finish.
        
             | MichaelCollins wrote:
             | > _where one part of the world has experienced one of the
             | severest droughts in the history of mankind, and the other
             | the worst floods "._
             | 
             | Nothing happening today, extrapolated out to 20 years with
             | the most severe climate models, will be severe enough to
             | cause the "end of the world". Anybody who's telling you
             | we'll have total societal collapse by 2042 is out of touch
             | with reality. The only way for things to go that badly that
             | fast is for Earth to be hit by something big from space,
             | but that is very unlikely to happen in any given 20 year
             | period.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | You seem very certain of your facts.
               | 
               | I can only say that you are _probably_ right. But we don
               | 't know if the ocean ecosystem will collapse in that
               | time, bringing down civilization.
               | 
               | The thing about collapse is that it happens terrifyingly
               | fast, and is only sometimes predicted accurately.
        
               | MichaelCollins wrote:
               | Even if the oceans were utterly sterilized _today_ , with
               | all the atmospheric implications that go with that, it
               | would take longer than 20 years for Sweden to no longer
               | exist.
               | 
               | I'm not saying that climate change won't cause huge
               | environmental disasters and social unrest, _because it
               | will_. I 'm saying that _" there won't be a planet left
               | after 20 years"_ is extreme pessimism and unsupported by
               | any model backed by science, even if you read that claim
               | generously and assume "won't be a planet left" is merely
               | hyperbole for the collapse of Swedish society.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | The planet will be fine. Civilization will be likely to have
         | collapsed, but that is our problem.
        
           | MichaelCollins wrote:
           | > _Civilization will be likely to have collapsed,_
           | 
           | Some in the short term, more in the long term. But I
           | challenge you to find any sane climate model that says Sweden
           | won't be around in 20 years to use any infrastructure built
           | today.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Sweden is not less dependent on global civilization than
             | other countries. Is Sweden a net food importer?
        
           | kramerger wrote:
           | George Carlin once said
           | 
           | "The planet is fine... the people are fucked"
        
       | AtNightWeCode wrote:
       | The funny thing about a country like Sweden is that their energy
       | problem is 100% based on energy exports to the EU market. Sweden
       | produces way more electricity than it needs at any given time.
       | During one of the latest "crises" a single company exported
       | energy worth several hundreds of millions Euros to other
       | countries.
        
       | tpmx wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/AWEHq
        
       | sergiotapia wrote:
       | How do I vote for similar politicians in the USA? We need
       | nuclear, and we need it yesterday.
        
         | aliswe wrote:
         | More or less these are the republicans of Sweden
        
           | tpmx wrote:
           | Mostly less.
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | Look at the most recently constructed nuclear plants in the
         | USA, figure out who allowed that to happen, and and
         | conspicuously give them public credit for their decisions.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Look at the recent fiascos where $15B has already been spent
           | and they say giving them another $10B will _surely_ provide
           | you with a 2GW plant, if you just wait enough years more. Or
           | might not.
           | 
           | "Public credit" for these massive corruption festivals does
           | not lead to good results.
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | Then your argument is with the GP about whether we need
             | nuclear power plants.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Exactly. We do not need nukes, and we _especially_ do not
               | need institutionally corrupt nuke projects.
        
           | Tagbert wrote:
           | I think the point is that it has been decades since a new
           | nuclear facility was built in the US so there really isn't
           | any around to promote.
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | We just finished building one and are loading fuel into it
             | as I write these words.
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33205813
        
             | boc wrote:
             | From today's front page:
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33205813
             | 
             | > Georgia Power announced tonight that fuel load into the
             | Vogtle Unit 3 reactor core has begun at Plant Vogtle near
             | Waynesboro, Ga. The fuel load process marks a historic and
             | pivotal milestone toward startup and commercial operation
             | of the first new nuclear units to be built in the U.S. in
             | more than three decades.
        
       | mkl95 wrote:
       | Sweden is a small player in the EU but hopefully this will drive
       | more countries away from Germany's dystopian madness
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Is Sweden in the EU?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | mkl95 wrote:
           | It is. You are probably thinking about Norway
        
         | lampshades wrote:
         | What is Germanys dystopian madness?
        
           | streblo wrote:
           | Something like 40% of the "renewable" energy being generated
           | in the EU/Britain comes from burning wood, a lot of which was
           | shipped from the US.
        
             | nicoburns wrote:
             | I don't think most reasonable people count biomass in with
             | renewable (at least not large scale biomass). e.g. this
             | website https://grid.iamkate.com/ has biomass in "other"
             | along with nuclear and pumped hydro storage.
        
               | Georgelemental wrote:
               | The people setting Germany's energy policy are not
               | reasonable, unfortunately.
        
           | mkl95 wrote:
           | Relying on coal on for 30%+ of their electricity
        
             | cjblomqvist wrote:
             | According to Wikipedia (quoting a source from jan 2021) 24%
             | of energy production comes from coal.
        
               | mkl95 wrote:
               | According to the German Federal Statistical Office
               | (report released a few weeks ago) it was 31.4% on the
               | first half of the year up from 17.2% on the same period a
               | year earlier. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economic-
               | Sectors-Enterpris...
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | It is dishonest to conflate emergency war measures as
             | policy.
        
               | est31 wrote:
               | Yeah the plan was to buy methane gas from Russia instead.
               | Still a non renewable source, but the gas would have
               | caused less CO2 emissions and less pollution (gas causes
               | less CO2 per kilowatt hour). Of course, the war and the
               | bombings of NordStream have put an end to that.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | The gas would have been used to fill in while renewables
               | were being built out. Now coal is filling in while
               | renewables are being built out even faster.
               | 
               | Without the investment to date in wind, coal dependency
               | would have been massively greater.
        
               | est31 wrote:
               | Yeah, note that a lot of those renewables won't be built
               | in Germany but outside of it, as there is simply no
               | capacity for this in Germany.
               | 
               | Germany imports a large chunk of its energy usage
               | (electricity plus stuff like fuel for cars, heating, et).
               | In 2017, it was from 70% of imports and 30% from energy
               | harvested locally [0]. It's quite impossible that this
               | can all be converted to power sources originating in
               | Germany.
               | 
               | So what will likely/hopefully happen is that some
               | countries will supply electricity to Germany via cables,
               | while others from further away will send Hydrogen
               | generated from renewable sources, that will then be
               | burned in the already existing gas plants.
               | 
               | [0]: https://www.weltenergierat.de/wp-
               | content/uploads/2018/05/810...
        
               | mkl95 wrote:
               | War is just the straw that broke the camel's back.
               | Shutting down nuclear energy while depending on a
               | dictator's gas set them to fail.
        
               | Georgelemental wrote:
               | The emergency measures are needed because the peacetime
               | policy was not designed to be resilient. A better
               | peacetime policy would have obviated the need for
               | destructive emergency measures.
        
               | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
               | If only they'd listened to someone who warned them four
               | years ago while possessed by a rare display of
               | competence:
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaBUNqVTkCs
        
             | tpmx wrote:
             | That's a small part of their sins. The big part is relying
             | on gas for heating. When speaking with germans I've found
             | that they think of gas as "clean" which sounds insane to
             | me. Yeah, maybe locally, compared to coal, but it's their
             | largest co2 emission source nevertheless.
        
               | Isolus wrote:
               | I don't know anyone in germany who thinks gas is "clean".
               | New buildings are built with heat pumps. They are
               | considered clean if used with renewable energy.
               | 
               | But it's difficult to use them in old buildings and gas
               | is said to be to most cleanest heating technology based
               | on fossil fuels.
        
       | kieranmaine wrote:
       | In order to inform the conversations in these comments here are
       | some predictions on Nuclear vs Renewable usage in the UK grid
       | from the National Grid's (UK energy grid transmission network
       | owner + operator) Future Energy Scenarios report -
       | https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/263951/download
       | 
       | Short Version is here -
       | https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/263861/download
        
       | Gwypaas wrote:
       | Typical right-wing reactionary environmental policy. When you do
       | not have any climate-related politics to bring to the table, all
       | you do is shout "nuclear" at the top of your lungs and tote it as
       | the solution to everything climate.
       | 
       | > Much of the resistance towards 100% Renewable Energy (RE)
       | systems in the literature seems to come from the a-priori
       | assumption that an energy system based on solar and wind is
       | impossible since these energy sources are variable. Critics of
       | 100% RE systems like to contrast solar and wind with 'firm'
       | energy sources like nuclear and fossil fuels (often combined with
       | CCS) that bring their own storage. This is the key point made in
       | some already mentioned reactions, such as those by Clack et al.
       | [225], Trainer [226], Heard et al. [227] Jenkins et al. [228],
       | and Caldeira et al. [275], [276].
       | 
       | > However, while it is true that keeping a system with variable
       | sources stable is more complex, a range of strategies can be
       | employed that are often ignored or underutilized in critical
       | studies: oversizing solar and wind capacities; strengthening
       | interconnections [68], [82], [132], [143], [277], [278]; demand
       | response [279], [172], e.g. smart electric vehicles charging
       | using delayed charging or delivering energy back to the
       | electricity grid via vehicle-to-grid [181], [280]-[282]; storage
       | (battery, compressed air, pumped hydro)[40]-[43], [46], [83],
       | [140], [142], such as stationary batteries; sector coupling [16],
       | [39], [90]-[92], [97], [132], [216], e.g. optimizing the
       | interaction between electricity, heat, transport, and industry;
       | power-to-X [39], [106], [134], [176], e.g. producing hydrogen at
       | moments when there is abundant energy; et cetera. Using all these
       | strategies effectively to mitigate variability is where much of
       | the cutting-edge development of 100% RE scenarios takes place.
       | 
       | > With every iteration in the research and with every
       | technological breakthrough in these areas, 100% RE systems become
       | increasingly viable. Even former critics must admit that adding
       | e-fuels through PtX makes 100% RE possible at costs similar to
       | fossil fuels. These critics are still questioning whether 100% RE
       | is the cheapest solution but no longer claim it would be
       | unfeasible or prohibitively expensive. Variability, especially
       | short term, has many mitigation options, and energy system
       | studies are increasingly capturing these in their 100% RE
       | scenarios.
       | 
       | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9837910
        
         | kramerger wrote:
         | Note that according to the press conference they want to start
         | investigating the possibility of it.
         | 
         | The previous government had basically said the same thing.
         | Neither will actually built anything in the near future.
        
       | badwolf wrote:
       | Outstanding! More, more, more!
        
       | AustinDev wrote:
       | Good for them. I wish the rest of Europe would embrace this
       | strategy.
        
       | belorn wrote:
       | A bit of context, the south area which this reactor is suggested
       | to be built in has occasionally a 1000% electricity higher price
       | from the northern regions. A big reason for this is that prices
       | in the south is highly connected to markets that the south region
       | is connected to, and those region are heavily importers of
       | electricity creating a higher demand than there is available of
       | cheap energy. For example, in order to address this there is a
       | oil power plant operating basically 24/7 and does so very
       | profitably even with high oil prices.
        
         | cjblomqvist wrote:
         | From what I understand it's also (mainly?) because the southern
         | areas pricing is very connected to Danish and German markets.
        
           | alkonaut wrote:
           | Maybe someone should sabotage some energy infrastructure on
           | the Baltic seabed to ensure better prices in Sweden...
        
         | TazeTSchnitzel wrote:
         | Another factor affecting the price is that, while there's a lot
         | of hydropower generated in northern Sweden, there's not enough
         | capacity for transferring energy to the south where most
         | consumption is. The investors building industry in the north
         | that can use cheap renewable energy don't seem to mind though.
         | :)
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | That is, surely, fixable by constructing transmission lines
           | massively cheaper than nukes.
        
             | rags2riches wrote:
             | Transmission capacity from the northern hydro to the
             | southern nuclear regions has decreased due to the closing
             | of reactors in the south. Power transmission is more
             | complex than just building a fatter pipe to pour more water
             | through. Having stable power in the south is a prerequisite
             | to transfer hydro power from the north.
        
         | Gwypaas wrote:
         | New export cables will be ready the day these would come
         | online, if the ever come online. Decoupling the SE4 and SE3
         | regions from the European energy market will never be a
         | sustainable solution due to the possible arbitrage.
        
       | NKosmatos wrote:
       | The only green solution to our current energy problem is more
       | nuclear power plants. We have to stop relying on coal, wood, oil,
       | gas and the rest of the "dirty" materials.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | f_allwein wrote:
         | Except nuclear is expensive and takes decades to build, runs on
         | non renewable materials (a good percentage of which come from
         | Russia), leaves waste that is deadly for 100.000s of years, and
         | promising new technologies will need decades to reach maturity.
         | 
         | Now why is it so great compared to, say, solar or geothermal?
        
           | NKosmatos wrote:
           | Well, I agree with you that they're expensive and take time
           | to build, but they don't leave that much waste compared to
           | what we've been told and their materials have more or less
           | the same problems as the ones from renewable ones (batteries,
           | non recyclable blades, exotic materials for solar...).
           | 
           | I fully support solar, hydro, geo, wind and any other more
           | eco friendly ways, but they don't generate stable electricity
           | and with the needed capacities our modern society needs. I've
           | read articles about different ways to store clean electricity
           | and ways to convert coal burning plants with geothermal ones,
           | but I feel that these are not enough.
           | 
           | We (as a planet) need a lot of clean electricity as soon as
           | possible or we're screwed :-)
        
           | f_allwein wrote:
           | Oh wait! And will stop working if your rivers should run dry,
           | as happened in France this summer.
           | 
           | Oh and! May not be so easy to build, supposing not everyone
           | loves the technology as much as you do. Google Wackersdorf.
           | 
           | Edit: of course, you assume you'd be able to run your power
           | plants safely throughout their life span, even if _cough_ a
           | natural disaster were to occur nearby.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Wind and hydro are probably more practical in Sweden.
           | 
           | Geothermal is not having a heyday because it depends on the
           | same sort of expensive-to-operate steam turbines as nukes do,
           | so is uncompetitive.
           | 
           | Anytime steam turbines have to compete with no steam
           | turbines, the steam turbines tend to lose.
        
             | f_allwein wrote:
             | Maybe so, but that doesn't mean anyone should use nuclear.
             | Perhaps we could come up with ways to distribute renewable
             | energy globally?
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Right, there is never any legitimate justification to
               | build new nukes.
               | 
               | At the moment, existing nukes can still be operated at
               | competitive marginal cost, neglecting original capital
               | cost, and _carefully_ not counting continuing subsidies
               | in opex. As renewables costs continues on down, even just
               | nukes ' subsidized opex will be unsustainable.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Geothermal doesn't really work for most places, since you'd
           | have to drill down for tens of kilometres to get the required
           | temperature. If you can use it then great, but it's a rarity.
           | 
           | > Now why is it so great compared to, say, solar
           | 
           | Works at night, works in winter, doesn't take up half the
           | country in surface area, has a constant output throughout the
           | day, costs slightly less per kWh (may vary), provides waste
           | heat that can be used for central heating, etc.
        
       | lnsru wrote:
       | Meanwhile in Germany: https://switzerlandtimes.ch/world/german-
       | greens-remain-firm-...
       | 
       | Welcome to The new dark ages in Germany. Leading politicians even
       | do not have any higher education:
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricarda_Lang It's scary how these
       | people decide about topics they have no idea about.
        
         | froh wrote:
         | Dr Angela Merkel holds a PhD in quantum physics. she stands by
         | her cabinets decision to leave nuclear energy in densely
         | populated Germany, as per a recent interview.
         | 
         | renewables will provide for 80% of Germanies energy needs by
         | 2030, and close enough to 100% in 2050.
        
           | oifjsidjf wrote:
           | How exactly will you be 100% renewable during a cloudy and
           | windless period with solar and wind?
        
             | froh wrote:
             | Dunkelflaute is 0.5% - 1.5% of the year and most of the
             | events last shorter than 24h
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute
             | 
             | in my book 98.5% easily fits the bill of "close to 100%"
             | 
             | so the answer is exactly what we do today: have a reserve
             | capacity. part of that may even be traditional peaker power
             | plants that remain turned off most of the year just like
             | today.
             | 
             | I'd be curious about climate data on the distribution of
             | Dunkelflaute duration, by region.
        
             | elihu wrote:
             | Pumped hydro storage, batteries, and/or long-distance grid
             | interconnection. It's not often overcast in the Sahara, as
             | far as I know, and solar power imported from far to the
             | east and west can mitigate the day/night cycle problem.
             | 
             | It's reasonable to keep ICE power plants around as an
             | emergency backup; if you have to use them for a week in
             | January or when infrastructure breaks for whatever reason
             | it's not the end of the world. Ideally things would run
             | smoothly enough that they'd never be used.
        
               | nathanaldensr wrote:
               | You are assuming geopolitical realities that will...
               | never be reality. The entire issue of Germany's
               | dependence on energy from another country makes this
               | obvious.
               | 
               | You also assume that power plants can just be flipped on
               | and off like a light switch. They can't.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Transmitting energy over long distances is way more
               | difficult than you make it out to be:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OpM_zKGE4o
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Trolling is unwelcome here, thank you.
        
               | Georgelemental wrote:
               | The comment you are replying to was not "trolling"; it
               | raised a legitimate, technical objection to a policy in a
               | manner that invites constructive responses (for example,
               | "with storage technology" is a common response I see).
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | It is trolling because the answer --storage -- is well
               | known to anybody who cares enough to do the most shallow
               | of research. So, everyone left is a troll.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Then it'd be good to mention what this storage mechanism
               | is, and examples of existing commercial deployments said
               | storage mechanism and their cost history. It's odd to see
               | someone insist that the solution is _so_ obvious that
               | anyone who doesn 't recognize it is trolling, yet they
               | neglect to mention what that solution is.
        
               | Georgelemental wrote:
               | Storage is a common answer, but it has problems of its
               | own. Presumably the OP considers these problems fatal; if
               | you disagree, say so and explain why.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | Intermittency is one of the most difficult parts of
               | building a majority renewable grid. Dismissing the
               | biggest challenge in building a renewable grid as
               | trolling is not a good look.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | capitainenemo wrote:
           | The last I read into Germany's plan to be "100%" renewable,
           | it was using other countries in Europe to provide the base
           | load using their hydro and nuclear. Which is great so long as
           | they have excess to provide Germany I suppose.
           | 
           | There does not seem to be nearly enough construction of
           | pumped storage or battery to cover the unevenness of German
           | wind power. In fact, their prices have gone negative
           | repeatedly in the past, which is not in fact a good thing.
           | (OMG help, we'll pay anyone to take this power before the
           | grid blows up!)
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | It would be stupid to spend on storage before there is
             | enough renewable generating capacity to charge it from. In
             | the meantime they spend, sensibly, on renewable generating
             | capacity.
             | 
             | By the time there is enough, storage will be massively
             | cheaper. In the meantime, charging storage from gas or coal
             | and then drawing it down is the same as burning gas or coal
             | for immediate use, just with losses.
        
               | capitainenemo wrote:
               | The storage should be built in conjunction with the
               | renewable generation to avoid those excess grid damaging
               | events which is just wasteful. Similar issue to US where
               | constructing generation is being subsidised but not
               | constructing storage along with it.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | There are no "grid damaging events".
        
               | capitainenemo wrote:
               | Correct, because they price it negatively to avoid that
               | happening. It's still indicative of a problem.
        
               | elihu wrote:
               | Batteries will probably be cheaper, but pumped hydro
               | storage will probably cost about the same since it's a
               | mature technology.
               | 
               | I could see Norway or Switzerland being major players in
               | pumped hydro storage, given their geography.
               | 
               | Awhile back I did a bunch of math to try to figure out
               | how much stored gravitational energy is in Lake Mead, and
               | if I didn't make any major mistakes it came out to be
               | about as much energy as the U.S. uses (as electrical
               | energy) in 24 hours. The idea of moving that amount of
               | water around on short time scales is hard to fathom.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | The cost of batteries is actually rising, now that
               | manufacturing costs only make up ~25% of a battery's cost
               | [1]. The remaining 75% is raw materials, dominated by the
               | cathode and anode, which are having trouble keeping up
               | with demand [2].
               | 
               | 1. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-
               | cost-of-a...
               | 
               | 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/ev-battery-costs-set-
               | to-spik...
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | The cost of batteries is immaterial to anything being
               | discussed here.
               | 
               | As you already knew l.
        
               | Manuel_D wrote:
               | From the previous comment:
               | 
               | > Batteries will probably be cheaper,
               | 
               | The above commenter clearly thinks that batteries are
               | going to provide cheap storage.
               | 
               | If you have some alternative plan for storage at the
               | scale of tens of terawatt hours, please do tell.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | The overwhelming majority of storage will not be
               | batteries, unless a massively cheaper battery chemistry
               | takes over.
               | 
               | Lake Mead stores (well, stored) radically less energy
               | than mountaintop reservoirs with thousands of feet of
               | "head" can hold behind cheap earthen dikes. Look up
               | "penstock".
        
             | froh wrote:
             | > we'll pay anyone to take this power before the grid blows
             | up
             | 
             | that's not how that works.
             | 
             | also:
             | 
             | Dunkelflaute is 0.5% - 1.5% per year and only very rarely
             | for longer than 24h. peaker power plants are turned off
             | most of the time today and a combination of those and
             | decentralized battery storage will easily buffer
             | Dunkelflaute in Germany.
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute
        
             | Isolus wrote:
             | In fact, many believe that storage as hydrogen shows
             | promise. There are many test plants for this right now in
             | areas with a lot of wind and connection to the national gas
             | grid.
             | 
             | The idea is that the hydrogen can then be used in existing
             | gas power plants.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Hydrogen is one of many practical storage media. Many
               | will be used, different ones favored in different places.
               | Hydrogen is particularly suited for places with large,
               | stable underground cavities.
        
         | noja wrote:
         | You're likely in the giant country that is the USA, with large
         | swathes of lightly populated land. Germany isn't that.
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | Without endorsing her political positions, it's false to assert
         | that Lang does 'not have any higher education'; your own link
         | states 'After graduating from the Holderlin-Gymnasium Nurtingen
         | in 2012, Lang began studying law, first at the Heidelberg
         | University and later at the Humboldt University of Berlin,
         | eventually dropping out in 2019 without graduating.'
         | 
         | Relying on hyperbole like this undermines your own argument.
        
         | Isolus wrote:
         | Germany is a densely populated country. We already don't know
         | where to put the nuclear waste. No one wants it on his or her
         | doorstep. The cost of storage alone is a nightmare.
         | 
         | The nuclear exit was supported by the population and not
         | decided against them by politicians.
         | 
         | And to your criticism: A lot of politicians in germany are
         | lawyers. Are they allowed do decide for the country? Do they
         | have an idea about nuclear topics?
        
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