[HN Gopher] Sweden's incoming cabinet says new nuclear reactors ... ___________________________________________________________________ Sweden's incoming cabinet says new nuclear reactors will be built Author : tpmx Score : 179 points Date : 2022-10-14 19:58 UTC (3 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com) | fspacek wrote: | tpmx wrote: | The new coalition government has pledged $40B (approximately the | market cap of Twitter, heh) in loan guarantees for nuclear power | construction. | | They have also pledged to create legal guarantees that future | politicians will not be able to shut down functioning nuclear | power reactors without suitable monetary compensation to the | owners/operators of these reactors. | | In addition to this, they are commissioning an urgent study on | how to rebuild Ringhals 1 and 2 | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ringhals_Nuclear_Power_Plant, | about 1 GW each), two nuclear reactors that were prematurely | decommissioned by the previous social-democratic government and | shut down about 20 months ago. | | Personally I'm really happy; I think massive expansion of nuclear | power is the only realistic way to fix climate change. | | The first reactors built will be modern but traditionally large. | From then on: There has been a lot of interest in small modular | reactors (SMR) from the political party that is driving all of | this, and they actually got the nationally owned energy company | Vattenfall to begin building prototypes at Ringhals a few months | ago. | | In summary: Lots of champagne bottles popping tonight in Sweden | in the homes of clean nuclear power proponents. We have been | waiting for this for a very long time. Cheers! | traceelement wrote: | so they get compensated if they have to close it even so the | government payed them to build it. this sound like a bad deal. | Tax payers pay for the whole thing and the owner gets even more | money if they have to close it for whatever reason. | | I don't think coal is the answer but germany didn't do enough | for renewables during the last 10 years when we knew we would | shut down the nuclear plants. So now evrybody uses bad | management as pro for nuclear reactors. | | I think the reasons to shut it down are always overlooked and | only the pros of nuclear energy are considered in those | arguments. | [deleted] | quelsolaar wrote: | Its all built on very old thinking. Nuclear may have been a | good idea in the past, but with the rapid reduction of cost | of renewable, especially solar, its no longer worth | considering. Building a plant takes a decade, and a decade | from now the difference in cost will be even greater. Nuclear | will look like huge waste of money then. | Roark66 wrote: | You realise we are talking about Sweden here, not a | subsaharan country by any stretch. In general in Europe | (especially in Northern Europe) all solar and wind capacity | has to backed up by at least the same amount of quickly | available online dependable capacity. In practice this | means natural gas and diesel plants that are off, or | coal/nuclear that is being diverted elsewhere when the sun | shines/wind blows. The EU grid is pretty well | interconnected so excess capacity is pretty easy to sell | (up to a point). This is one of the reasons why renewables | can be used as a large piece of the total supply. | | However, unless time comes when we can deploy multi TWh | lithium energy storage (highly unlikely - just look at | shortages required for electric cars) or we have grids that | can send let's say entire country's worth of capacity from | the coast of Norway to Greece on a moment's notice there is | no way renewables will ever go beyond few tens of % at the | extreme best as measured in proportion of energy actually | delivered. | | The misinformation on the subject has been pushed very hard | in recent years as it benefits many special interest | groups. For example those articles we see sometimes about | "German's entire electricity supply coming from renewables | on a given day" or "40% of all electricity produced came | from renewables in first half of a year" fail to mention | Germany has Frances heavily nuclear backed supply on one | side, its other neighbor's conventional (coal) supplies to | lean on so we should really consider the entire system not | cherry pick parts that fit our narrative. | | Am I against renewables? No, I've invested my own money | this year into solar (before the war started so I didn't | even know how electricity prices will spike) and I am a big | proponent of its use where possible. Unfortunately our grid | is not built in a way that allows everyone to have solar. | At the same time we don't have enough lithium batteries to | meet our transportation needs, so thinking we'll have | enough for grid level storage is a pipe dream. | | People that are for off lining existing nuclear capacity | really achieve only increased use of gas/diesel for energy | production as well as diminish our industry's | competitiveness in the world through extremely high energy | costs. This will have zero impact on climate as China will | pick up all the slack we leave regarding co2 emissions and | some. In fact it may even be worse, because we could've | built same products(steel concrete etc) with a mix of | nuclear/renewables/small chunk of conventional generation | while they mostly use dirty coal. | | All we'll achieve by this self industrial devolution is | furthering our dependence on countries like China and | Russia. | quelsolaar wrote: | Who said we need to put the solar cells in Sweden? We | could put them anywhere. Sweden is already producing | enough low cost energy to meet its needs, only prices are | high because we are exporting it to other countries | willing to pay. If Sweden wants to invest in power for | export, we could make that investment anywhere. | nathanaldensr wrote: | The sun doesn't shine, especially at useful angles, enough | and battery technology at scale isn't there. We absolutely | need nuclear, essentially no matter the cost, assuming | populations of certain countries don't want to use coal. | ncmncm wrote: | The overwhelming majority of utility scale storage will | not be in batteries, so battery technology does not | matter. | | The sun does, in fact, shine far, far more than enough. | TheSpiceIsLife wrote: | Ok, I'll bite. | | What type of utility scale storage isn't _a battery_? The | answer is, of course: any energy storage setup is a | battery[1]. | | A more generous interpretation of your comment is that | you meant _won 't be chemical batteries_. | | In which case, I'll bite: what then? | | 1. _Energy storage is the capture of energy produced at | one time for use at a later time[1] to reduce imbalances | between energy demand and energy production. A device | that stores energy is generally called an accumulator or | battery._ | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage | Gwypaas wrote: | Sweden generates 40% of the current power generation from | hydro. Adapt that to be more flexible than baseload and | Sweden has amazing capabilities to run an entire | renewable grid mainly based on wind with a minimal amount | of chemical short-term storage. | | There are few countries with better opportunities for | renewables than Sweden. | r00fus wrote: | Renewables don't give you baseload power. So renewables + | nuclear is a good balance. | ncmncm wrote: | Renewables + storage will provide massively cheaper | baseload power. | zkomp wrote: | Will not happen. "green" energy is not green- it consume | massive amount of resources, it is expensive, short | lived, destabilize the grid. I'm super happy my country | is finally waking up from the horrible green hypnosis. | anonym29 wrote: | Enjoy paying for storage. At least in the US, even if we | get storage down from $438/kWh (Jan 2022 grid-scale | storage costs) to $200/kWh, consumer electricity prices | are expected to rise somewhere between 1400% and 2200% | per kWh, and total cost estimates to switch the entire | US's power generation + distribution to pure renewables + | storage, while maintaining current production and | availability levels, are over $430tn, which is >20x the | US GDP, according to: | https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/12/the-cost-of-net- | zero-... | ncmncm wrote: | No civil nuke plant has ever been operated, anywhere in the | world, without massive government subsidies, or by coercing | ratepayers to pay well above market rates. | | Looks like the Swedish public will be on the hook for | subsidies for decades more while the rest of Europe (France | and Romania perhaps excepted) coasts on renewables at ever | plunging prices. | TheSpiceIsLife wrote: | Show me one place anywhere in the entire history of grid- | scale renewables where _the consumer 's_ costs _went down_. | | The cost to the developer of deploying new solar / wind to | a grid may become more favourable, but they're selling in | to a market that reselles to retail / commercial clients, | who will, inevitably, pay more over time. | | I think what you're argument should be is that new nuclear | would result in end-users paying more than they would for | new renewables. | | I'm mostly convinced where you, or anyone else, lands on | the matter, is heavily biased by preconceptions... | | and generally tend to think we have the resources to do a | many-pronged approach, and that success is less technology | dependant and more dependant on the competence of | governments and bureaucracies, and the people who | constitute them. | belorn wrote: | EU has a yearly public report on energy subsidies that | demonstrate factually where subsidies goes, how much, and | for what purpose. Nuclear subsidies are a proportional | small part of the subsidies, and the public get more energy | per $subsidies in nuclear than from other energy sources. | Some key findings from 2021 report: | | _" Subsidies to nuclear had varied between EUR3.2bn and | EUR 4bn between 2008 and 2019 but surged to (EUR6.3bn) in | 2020 due to payments for early closures of nuclear power | plants."_ | | "In line with anticipations in the Commission Study, the | financial aid to renewables in the EU27 is increasing at a | low pace since 2015 to reach EUR78bn in 2019. Our | preliminary estimations show a slight reduction in 2020 to | around EUR77bn. Among the 14 identified subsidy | instruments, the feed-in-tariff and feed-in premium schemes | remain by far the MS preferred tools to promote RES | technologies. They represented 79% of the total RES | subsidies, i.e. EUR61bn in 2019"* | klabb3 wrote: | Energy use in Sweden peaks in the winter, and especially a | few extremely cold days. The sun literally doesn't rise in | the northern parts, and the coldest days have almost no | wind (and frankly it's not very strong overall either). | This and last year, Swedes are stocking up on firewood, and | it's not for cosplaying reason. Several knowledgeable | people predict rolling blackouts this winter. | | I would love renewables as much as the next guy but there's | simply not a chance that Sweden could sustain a winter with | the current supply. Importing helps with survival but the | prices are insane, since their neighbors are cold as well. | Dispatchable or baseload energy is necessary, and thus | nuclear is the only carbon neutral option. Sure, it's more | expensive than solar panels midday in the desert, but the | comparison is irrelevant. | MisterTea wrote: | > coasts on renewables at ever plunging prices. | | I hope they can coast through the winter using those | renewables. | peyton wrote: | Source? Everything I can find counts PPAs which is... kind | of a stretch. | ncmncm wrote: | PPAs at inflated prices are absolutely subsidies. They | impose inflated costs on users of the power, which is | only marginally better than on the body politic at large. | Or marginally worse, maybe. | | Much of the subsidies are the public picking up the tab | for disaster insurance the operator is protected against | needing to pay for. Of course no actual insurance company | could afford to underwrite such a policy. | _Microft wrote: | Are the economics of nuclear power somehow more favorable in | Sweden? That seems to be the major issue elsewhere from what I | understand. | tpmx wrote: | No, not really. It makes a lot of sense in all stable | countries. | TazeTSchnitzel wrote: | They aren't better in Sweden. The right's support for it is | not really related to the costs. I'm personally curious how | it's going to pan out considering the right-wing parties | claimed they'd be against state subsidies. | ncmncm wrote: | The single most reliable feature of all right-wing parties | is that they are against state subsidies _unless_ the | subsidies are directed into their own pockets. | | They are singularly skilled at directing subsidies reliably | into their own pockets. Nukes and military procurement have | worked well for that in past decades. | otikik wrote: | Look at it this way: The army is publicly supported. Do you | think they are against the army? | | Problem is not public support, it's public support of the | things they don't like. | aPoCoMiLogin wrote: | the mayor issue is the coal/gas lobby, just look how europe | was lobbed to the point that natural gas is somewhat "green", | but nuclear is bad to the point some countries don't even | have one nuclear power plant. | ncmncm wrote: | The oil/gas/coal lobby is all in on nukes, because each | nuke started means at least a decade of continued fossil | fuel burning while it is built. | | Renewable energy projects always start producing power and | revenue almost immediately, displacing fossil fuel | consumption at an ever increasing rate. | Zigurd wrote: | The idea of nuclear power is good. The facts of nuclear power | are much less good. It is not too much to ask that lifecycle | costs and safety get addressed. For example, the French success | with nuclear power looks much less successful due to | decommissioning costs coming in at a multiple of estimated | costs. The French low-balled their estimates, to be a fraction | of estimates by Germany and UK. Which estimates do you believe? | DisjointedHunt wrote: | French politicians voted in 2015 to shut off all planned new | nuclear investment in favor of transitioning to "renewables" | | It was political incompetence that led to the French plants | needing to have their lives extended MUCH BEYOND their | expected lifetimes. | anigbrowl wrote: | Power generation should be publicly owned, private ownership of | such critical resources inevitably creates moral hazard. | elihu wrote: | I think it's fine if governments pay for and operate power | generation facilities, but at the same time I don't think | private companies should be prohibited from building power | generation facilities if they want to and they think they can | do it better (provided they have to pay for externalities). | the-smug-one wrote: | If anything's good about renewables is that they can be | quite small scaled. I think it's cool that I can be an | energy producer just with my roof, plus decentralized | generation = better security. | ncmncm wrote: | There is plenty more good about renewables. Being the | cheapest source of power that has ever existed is good, | too. | gtvwill wrote: | Speed of deployment + complexity (bugger all) + safety of | deployment (passive product v product that can root | entire ecosystems) + ongoing maintenance means | solar>nuclear any day. | | Nuclear is over priced, high risk centralised power. | Yuck. | belorn wrote: | Define externalities. Is a balanced grid part of the | externalities, ie the work needed to make sure that supply | can always match that of demand? | r00fus wrote: | Is there any nuclear facility that's privately owned that | didn't get massive subsidies/loan guarantees from a | government? | | At the size of a 100MW+ generation facility, you need | government sized budgets and timelines. | ncmncm wrote: | There has never been any civil nuke, anywhere in the | world, not massively subsidized. | TheSpiceIsLife wrote: | Has there been, in recent memory, _any_ grid scale | generator, or roof-top solar for that matter, that didn | 't get significant subsidies? | | The argument should be about whether or not those | subsidies would have been better spend elsewhere. | | I'd probably argue subsidising local wind / solar (plus | storage), and local manufacturing of same, would be | better, even though I tend to argue nuclear is a reason | option some of the time. | cjblomqvist wrote: | The previous government didn't stop the shutdown planned 40+ | years ago (due to a national referendum), in part because the | owners (Vattenfall) said it's not economically feasible to run | them anymore without subsidies. It's complex. | queuep wrote: | For anyone interested in this national referendum, it's peak | bull crap. | | No option available to continue with nuclear power | | https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karnkraftsfragan_i_Sverige | Gwypaas wrote: | You have to bear in mind that the public was hugely against | it. No political party dared to push for it, although | negotiations were held. | | > The Moderates, the People's Party and the Social | Democrats held separate negotiations to formulate a joint | yes option with the implication that the reactors would be | allowed to be used during their technical lifespan, which | was estimated at 25 years. These negotiations finally broke | down mainly because the Moderates could not accept the | additional proposals: that the state or the municipalities | would own the nuclear power plants and that so-called | surplus profits from private production of hydropower would | be withdrawn through taxation. | | Translated from: | | https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folkomr%C3%B6stningen_om_k%C3 | %... | belorn wrote: | To be fair to both sides, the electricity prices at the time | when the decision was made was very different from today. We | had prices in the south of sweden 2020 that was as low as | around EUR0.02 per kw/h, compared to over EUR0.3 in 2022, and | in 2020 the price trend was looking to be going downwards. | | If prices had continue to go down and let say had landed at | EUR0.01 per kw/h this year than we would not be discussing | nuclear power as much. It will be a gamble to say what prices | will be in 1, 5, 10 and 20 years into the future, and any | gamble involve a cost in one way or an other. The previous | government made one bet, this government is doing an other. | DisjointedHunt wrote: | It's probably fair to say that energy demand over the next | ten years will increase significantly. | | The anecdotes of the end of Moores law that signifies the | end of electronic efficiency through miniaturization alone | and the increasing adoption of energy hungry devices for | personal compute or lifestyle will certainly have a | multiplicative effect over time as these trends make their | way through society. | | In such a scenario, it's hard to imagine prices being the | same if demand increases by even a single digit multiple of | the present. | ncmncm wrote: | Energy demand will not increase in the next decade. It | will, instead, fall, as it has in recent years. | | Electricity demand will increase as that takes over for | other energy uses that will be collapsing. | dekken_ wrote: | You appear to be contradicting yourself, but I imagine | you don't think you are, so you might want to elaborate. | Gwypaas wrote: | He is not contradicting himself. You have to remember the | awful efficiency of thermal engines. | | Primary energy demand will decrease because you do not | lose 70% of the energy by simply cooling it like in steam | turbine used by nuclear power plants or car engines. | | On the other hand, electricity usage will increase | because you have now replaced your 30-40% efficient | engines with 90+% efficient engines, but from a different | source. That barely have any losses from the primary | energy input. | dekken_ wrote: | Thanks for that | JumpCrisscross wrote: | Petrol burned in a car is energy, not electricity. | dekken_ wrote: | The fact that you can use combustion to generate | electricity, means they are interchangeable. The other | comment is probably more on point about conversion | effeciency. | JumpCrisscross wrote: | > _that you can use combustion to generate electricity, | means they are interchangeable_ | | This is an accounting issue, not a question of | thermodynamics. Electricity typically refers to grid | electric. We don't count non plug-in hybrid electrical | output as "electricity." That's how energy use can be | stable while electrification increases. | onlyrealcuzzo wrote: | Energy security has a price. | tpmx wrote: | The previous anti-nuclear social-democratic government | together with the demonstrably insane "green" party installed | a board in the state owned power company Vattenfall that | after a while managed to sort of claim that it wasn't | economically feasible to run the nuclear plants, with the new | heavy taxes the social democrats had put in place on nuclear | power production. | | Yay? | | Anyway, all of that insanity is thankfully history now. | cjblomqvist wrote: | No need for personal attacks. I'm not a sore loser. | | I think it's a waste that we've not maintained the reactors | well enough to still have them able to run at a profit. | | And generally that we've (the government, both sides) | haven't done anything about it in the last 10-20 years when | they had a chance to invest in alternatives (whether | building new nuclear or other types of energy sources). | | If it's just a matter of taxes then I'm sure it would be | easy for the new government to remove them and start back | up the old reactors - but obviously that's not the plan. | Most likely it's all quite complex and lots of factors | leading to this outcome. | pokepim wrote: | otikik wrote: | Congratulations, I hope you guys are able to build them | quickly. | | > I think massive expansion of nuclear power is the only | realistic way to fix climate change. | | While I agree on the overall direction of this sentiment I | think nuclear cannot be "the" only way but "one amongst many" | ways. | hello1234567 wrote: | well nuclear is the current cheapest way of producing | electricity. doesn't stop from funding other cheaper and | future safe options. | | mantra is cheaper. | Gwypaas wrote: | It is by far the most expensive method. | | https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of- | energy-... | ncmncm wrote: | Always was. The most reliable product of the nuke | industry has always been dishonesty. "Too cheap to | meter..." No nuke has ever been operated anywhere in the | world without massive subsidy. | tpmx wrote: | While wind and solar will help, nuclear is really the | dominant part of the solution, because of it's ability to | work independent of local weather. | sangnoir wrote: | Sounds like the ideal backup to me. | Retric wrote: | Nuclear has always had massive scaling issues because | leaving base load power generation means ever lower | capacity factors. Running a nuclear power plant with a 40% | capacity factor more than doubles the cost per kWh. | | You can look at Frances ~70% average Capacity factor in 2 | ways either it's a ~30% cost premium over most of the rest | of the world on every power plant. Or more realistically | ~40% of generation was at the normal ~92% CF, and every | plant after that was at lower capacity factors until the | final power plant was costing ~3X as much per kWh. | | And that's with them having largely non nuclear countries | to export power to on nights and weekends. The economics | look even worse if every country try's to scale nuclear | power. | | PS: I respect Frances investment in subsidizing nuclear | power, but it's important to understand the underlying | economics if you want to scale nuclear power. The best | option for a cheap nuclear grid is massive amounts of cheap | storage. | tpmx wrote: | Hello. | | "Nuclear has always had massive scaling issues because | leaving base load power generation means ever lower | capacity factors." | | So Swedish electricity generation used to be about 50% | hydro and 50% nuclear. It worked really well for decades | and made/kept us rich, despite our high salary costs due | to the welfare state. Our industries had the benefits of | cheap and clean energy! | | Then we shut down half of the nuclear capacity and tried | to replace with wind. It didn't really work. | Retric wrote: | I agree. Sweden is close to a best case for nuclear as | hydroelectric power can easily solve the dispatchable | generation and solar isn't viable. It's still going to | need significant subsides to got 50%, but nowhere near | what counties with less Hydro would need. | | They even have cold temperatures to boost power plant | efficiency and make district heating very useful. | TheSpiceIsLife wrote: | > You can look at Frances ~70% average Capacity factor in | 2 ways either it's a ~30% cost premium over most of the | rest of the world on every power plant. | | Insufficient detail. | | You'd need to compare levelised costs, and work out | whether government subsidies for this-or-that technology | resulted in gains and loses that were better or worse | than whatever else governments might have spent money on. | | There's a good argument to be made that cheap-to-the-end- | user electricity is a net good for society, because they | can then spend that money elsewhere rather than on boring | old electricity. | | Besides all that, nuclear needs a lot of cooling | capacity, and that's typically come from rivers / oceans, | which, if I recall correctly, some rivers in France where | recently too warm / insufficient flow to meet nuclear | cooling demands. | | So nuclear isn't always a good fit for many reasons, but | may be a good fit for many other reasons. | Retric wrote: | A county can't subsidize it's own power, it's got to pay | what it costs. Producers, distributors, and consumers of | electricity within a county can receive subsides, but | that runs into all the usual issues with planned | economies. | Melatonic wrote: | Honestly what we really need is something that we can | pump that power into (not a battery - something | productive I mean) so we can keep those reactors at | higher efficiency levels. I do not know what that is but | surely vast amounts of extra power could be used for | something useful no? Research? Cleaning the air? Hot tubs | for Walruses? | ncmncm wrote: | Reactors will not be forced to shut down, in the future. | Instead, they will be shut down as unable to produce power at a | competitive price. Those that continue operating will depend | _even more_ on taxpayer subsidies than they do now. | | The money that will be spent on these new reactors would buy a | hell of a lot more wind power than these nukes could produce. | But money for renewables would not go into the pockets of | right-wing blueblood Swedes, which seems to be what matters to | the incoming government. | | When the nukes are mothballed early, every kWh they ever | produced will, instantly, have actually cost much more than had | been reckoned, as the fixed costs are amortized over fewer | total. | nathanaldensr wrote: | Pure FUD. The wind doesn't blow all the time and battery | technology at scale isn't there. | jules wrote: | Yes, this argument gets repeated again and again and again, | and when you ask about storage you never get a decent | answer. And yet, the argument keeps getting repeated even | by people who matter and make the decisions. When I started | watching debates in the Dutch house of representatives I | pretty much lost all hope. Of the 150 members, I'd say 145 | are either unable or unwilling to think quantitatively and | do simple napkin math. Yet they are verbally very strong, | which makes the problem even worse. I suspect it's the same | in most western countries. | | If you think I'm exaggerating, remember when the Royal | Statistical Society asked "if you spin a coin twice, what | is the probability of getting two heads?" and 47% of | Conservative MPs and 77% Labour MPs got the answer wrong. | ncmncm wrote: | The decent answer is, simply, that storage will be built | when there is enough renewable capacity to charge it | from. | | Storage is technically trivial. Building it all will be a | big civil engineering job, but we have plenty of civil | engineers. | jules wrote: | That's magical thinking. Let's start with the obvious | question: what kind of storage would that be? | onlyrealcuzzo wrote: | Yes, why not both? | ncmncm wrote: | Money is fungible. Each dollar spent on nuke generating | capacity is that dollar _not_ spent on several times as | much renewable generating capacity. | alkonaut wrote: | Now find out how to not just do it but do it quickly. The last | time (two additional reactors in an existing plant) was built in | 24 months and on budget. | LightG wrote: | One question for nuclear advocates, as I know it's full on-trend | at the moment: | | What's to stop adversaries holding countries to ransom using | their nucealer facilities? | | Just like Russia is playing "games" around the Ukranian nuclear | plant? What's to stop that being used as the new threat? We won't | turn your gas off, we'll threaten your nuclear plants? | | Genuine question. | weberer wrote: | I'd imagine it would receive the same response as if Russia | launched a nuclear missile directly. In other words, WWIII. | orthecreedence wrote: | > What's to stop adversaries holding countries to ransom using | their nucealer facilities? | | Nothing, unless you yourself have leverage. Every resource or | dependency is a potential weakness. The idea is to be able to | say "ok, if you bomb our fission plant, we'll shut off your | fresh water supply." | | It's all a huge game of chess. | LightG wrote: | But doesn't chess rely on two half-decent actors sitting down | across a table from each other? | | Clearly some actors are willing to throw the board across the | room | | In which case, why are 'we' considering creating that | weakness? | | I understand there is a strong wave behind nuclear right now, | but it does feel like we're just creating the instruments of | another, different, mess. | endisneigh wrote: | this is great, but couldn't a future cabinet undo this? best to | save the applause for when it's built and operational | ncmncm wrote: | Or, hold it until they come to their senses and build out | massively more productive renewables. | frostburg wrote: | "What is base load?" | ncmncm wrote: | yrgulation wrote: | Electricity should cost peanuts and that should the goal of every | sane government. | locallost wrote: | It's only a shame there won't be a planet left after 20 years it | will take to finish these. | jansan wrote: | What do you mean by this? Are they actually building the | intergalactical highway? If not, there will eb a planet. And | there will be people. And they will enjoy life. | MichaelCollins wrote: | If you believe that, you're probably in a cult. The most | extreme climate models don't predict anything you could | reasonably characterize as _" won't be a planet left."_ | naillo wrote: | Not to start this whole flamewar but I was totally in the | other camp (not yours) and then covid hit and now my trust in | consensus science is super worn out and have basically | started to believe it might be fine. | MichaelCollins wrote: | The "consensus science" doesn't say anything about the "end | of the world" or societal collapse in 20 years. | ncmncm wrote: | Social science is far from exact enough to predict either | eventuality with any confidence. | | If waves of tens or hundreds of millions of refugees | leaving places they cannot live in any longer begin | sweeping across borders, how long will it be before | fascist governments, already threatening, and already | winning in Turkey, Poland, Russia, Belarus, the | Philippines, Brazil, Hungary, Italy, and India take over | generally and initiate wars, as they do? Such wars | _might_ not go thermonuclear, but they would certainly | disrupt fragile global trade networks. | MichaelCollins wrote: | People have had terrible governments before, for most of | human history in fact. I do expect global social | conditions to deteriorate as climate change strains | countries, but that's a far cry from the end of the | planet. | | As for global thermonuclear war, we could wargame likely | scenarios and potential outcomes endlessly until the day | it might actually happen. But anybody who tells you with | certainty that one will happen in the next 20 years so | there's no sense planning for the future (e.g. no sense | building a power plant that will be used 20 years from | now) is trying to indoctrinate you into a doomsday cult. | locallost wrote: | I am in the cult of "living in the present, where one part of | the world has experienced one of the severest droughts in the | history of mankind, and the other the worst floods". Recently | I joined a second cult called "it's only going to get worse". | So what the heck, we've got money and time for expensive | solutions that take forever to finish. | MichaelCollins wrote: | > _where one part of the world has experienced one of the | severest droughts in the history of mankind, and the other | the worst floods "._ | | Nothing happening today, extrapolated out to 20 years with | the most severe climate models, will be severe enough to | cause the "end of the world". Anybody who's telling you | we'll have total societal collapse by 2042 is out of touch | with reality. The only way for things to go that badly that | fast is for Earth to be hit by something big from space, | but that is very unlikely to happen in any given 20 year | period. | ncmncm wrote: | You seem very certain of your facts. | | I can only say that you are _probably_ right. But we don | 't know if the ocean ecosystem will collapse in that | time, bringing down civilization. | | The thing about collapse is that it happens terrifyingly | fast, and is only sometimes predicted accurately. | MichaelCollins wrote: | Even if the oceans were utterly sterilized _today_ , with | all the atmospheric implications that go with that, it | would take longer than 20 years for Sweden to no longer | exist. | | I'm not saying that climate change won't cause huge | environmental disasters and social unrest, _because it | will_. I 'm saying that _" there won't be a planet left | after 20 years"_ is extreme pessimism and unsupported by | any model backed by science, even if you read that claim | generously and assume "won't be a planet left" is merely | hyperbole for the collapse of Swedish society. | ncmncm wrote: | The planet will be fine. Civilization will be likely to have | collapsed, but that is our problem. | MichaelCollins wrote: | > _Civilization will be likely to have collapsed,_ | | Some in the short term, more in the long term. But I | challenge you to find any sane climate model that says Sweden | won't be around in 20 years to use any infrastructure built | today. | ncmncm wrote: | Sweden is not less dependent on global civilization than | other countries. Is Sweden a net food importer? | kramerger wrote: | George Carlin once said | | "The planet is fine... the people are fucked" | AtNightWeCode wrote: | The funny thing about a country like Sweden is that their energy | problem is 100% based on energy exports to the EU market. Sweden | produces way more electricity than it needs at any given time. | During one of the latest "crises" a single company exported | energy worth several hundreds of millions Euros to other | countries. | tpmx wrote: | https://archive.ph/AWEHq | sergiotapia wrote: | How do I vote for similar politicians in the USA? We need | nuclear, and we need it yesterday. | aliswe wrote: | More or less these are the republicans of Sweden | tpmx wrote: | Mostly less. | anigbrowl wrote: | Look at the most recently constructed nuclear plants in the | USA, figure out who allowed that to happen, and and | conspicuously give them public credit for their decisions. | ncmncm wrote: | Look at the recent fiascos where $15B has already been spent | and they say giving them another $10B will _surely_ provide | you with a 2GW plant, if you just wait enough years more. Or | might not. | | "Public credit" for these massive corruption festivals does | not lead to good results. | anigbrowl wrote: | Then your argument is with the GP about whether we need | nuclear power plants. | ncmncm wrote: | Exactly. We do not need nukes, and we _especially_ do not | need institutionally corrupt nuke projects. | Tagbert wrote: | I think the point is that it has been decades since a new | nuclear facility was built in the US so there really isn't | any around to promote. | anigbrowl wrote: | We just finished building one and are loading fuel into it | as I write these words. | | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33205813 | boc wrote: | From today's front page: | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33205813 | | > Georgia Power announced tonight that fuel load into the | Vogtle Unit 3 reactor core has begun at Plant Vogtle near | Waynesboro, Ga. The fuel load process marks a historic and | pivotal milestone toward startup and commercial operation | of the first new nuclear units to be built in the U.S. in | more than three decades. | mkl95 wrote: | Sweden is a small player in the EU but hopefully this will drive | more countries away from Germany's dystopian madness | ncmncm wrote: | Is Sweden in the EU? | [deleted] | mkl95 wrote: | It is. You are probably thinking about Norway | lampshades wrote: | What is Germanys dystopian madness? | streblo wrote: | Something like 40% of the "renewable" energy being generated | in the EU/Britain comes from burning wood, a lot of which was | shipped from the US. | nicoburns wrote: | I don't think most reasonable people count biomass in with | renewable (at least not large scale biomass). e.g. this | website https://grid.iamkate.com/ has biomass in "other" | along with nuclear and pumped hydro storage. | Georgelemental wrote: | The people setting Germany's energy policy are not | reasonable, unfortunately. | mkl95 wrote: | Relying on coal on for 30%+ of their electricity | cjblomqvist wrote: | According to Wikipedia (quoting a source from jan 2021) 24% | of energy production comes from coal. | mkl95 wrote: | According to the German Federal Statistical Office | (report released a few weeks ago) it was 31.4% on the | first half of the year up from 17.2% on the same period a | year earlier. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economic- | Sectors-Enterpris... | ncmncm wrote: | It is dishonest to conflate emergency war measures as | policy. | est31 wrote: | Yeah the plan was to buy methane gas from Russia instead. | Still a non renewable source, but the gas would have | caused less CO2 emissions and less pollution (gas causes | less CO2 per kilowatt hour). Of course, the war and the | bombings of NordStream have put an end to that. | ncmncm wrote: | The gas would have been used to fill in while renewables | were being built out. Now coal is filling in while | renewables are being built out even faster. | | Without the investment to date in wind, coal dependency | would have been massively greater. | est31 wrote: | Yeah, note that a lot of those renewables won't be built | in Germany but outside of it, as there is simply no | capacity for this in Germany. | | Germany imports a large chunk of its energy usage | (electricity plus stuff like fuel for cars, heating, et). | In 2017, it was from 70% of imports and 30% from energy | harvested locally [0]. It's quite impossible that this | can all be converted to power sources originating in | Germany. | | So what will likely/hopefully happen is that some | countries will supply electricity to Germany via cables, | while others from further away will send Hydrogen | generated from renewable sources, that will then be | burned in the already existing gas plants. | | [0]: https://www.weltenergierat.de/wp- | content/uploads/2018/05/810... | mkl95 wrote: | War is just the straw that broke the camel's back. | Shutting down nuclear energy while depending on a | dictator's gas set them to fail. | Georgelemental wrote: | The emergency measures are needed because the peacetime | policy was not designed to be resilient. A better | peacetime policy would have obviated the need for | destructive emergency measures. | kevin_thibedeau wrote: | If only they'd listened to someone who warned them four | years ago while possessed by a rare display of | competence: | | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaBUNqVTkCs | tpmx wrote: | That's a small part of their sins. The big part is relying | on gas for heating. When speaking with germans I've found | that they think of gas as "clean" which sounds insane to | me. Yeah, maybe locally, compared to coal, but it's their | largest co2 emission source nevertheless. | Isolus wrote: | I don't know anyone in germany who thinks gas is "clean". | New buildings are built with heat pumps. They are | considered clean if used with renewable energy. | | But it's difficult to use them in old buildings and gas | is said to be to most cleanest heating technology based | on fossil fuels. | kieranmaine wrote: | In order to inform the conversations in these comments here are | some predictions on Nuclear vs Renewable usage in the UK grid | from the National Grid's (UK energy grid transmission network | owner + operator) Future Energy Scenarios report - | https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/263951/download | | Short Version is here - | https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/263861/download | Gwypaas wrote: | Typical right-wing reactionary environmental policy. When you do | not have any climate-related politics to bring to the table, all | you do is shout "nuclear" at the top of your lungs and tote it as | the solution to everything climate. | | > Much of the resistance towards 100% Renewable Energy (RE) | systems in the literature seems to come from the a-priori | assumption that an energy system based on solar and wind is | impossible since these energy sources are variable. Critics of | 100% RE systems like to contrast solar and wind with 'firm' | energy sources like nuclear and fossil fuels (often combined with | CCS) that bring their own storage. This is the key point made in | some already mentioned reactions, such as those by Clack et al. | [225], Trainer [226], Heard et al. [227] Jenkins et al. [228], | and Caldeira et al. [275], [276]. | | > However, while it is true that keeping a system with variable | sources stable is more complex, a range of strategies can be | employed that are often ignored or underutilized in critical | studies: oversizing solar and wind capacities; strengthening | interconnections [68], [82], [132], [143], [277], [278]; demand | response [279], [172], e.g. smart electric vehicles charging | using delayed charging or delivering energy back to the | electricity grid via vehicle-to-grid [181], [280]-[282]; storage | (battery, compressed air, pumped hydro)[40]-[43], [46], [83], | [140], [142], such as stationary batteries; sector coupling [16], | [39], [90]-[92], [97], [132], [216], e.g. optimizing the | interaction between electricity, heat, transport, and industry; | power-to-X [39], [106], [134], [176], e.g. producing hydrogen at | moments when there is abundant energy; et cetera. Using all these | strategies effectively to mitigate variability is where much of | the cutting-edge development of 100% RE scenarios takes place. | | > With every iteration in the research and with every | technological breakthrough in these areas, 100% RE systems become | increasingly viable. Even former critics must admit that adding | e-fuels through PtX makes 100% RE possible at costs similar to | fossil fuels. These critics are still questioning whether 100% RE | is the cheapest solution but no longer claim it would be | unfeasible or prohibitively expensive. Variability, especially | short term, has many mitigation options, and energy system | studies are increasingly capturing these in their 100% RE | scenarios. | | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9837910 | kramerger wrote: | Note that according to the press conference they want to start | investigating the possibility of it. | | The previous government had basically said the same thing. | Neither will actually built anything in the near future. | badwolf wrote: | Outstanding! More, more, more! | AustinDev wrote: | Good for them. I wish the rest of Europe would embrace this | strategy. | belorn wrote: | A bit of context, the south area which this reactor is suggested | to be built in has occasionally a 1000% electricity higher price | from the northern regions. A big reason for this is that prices | in the south is highly connected to markets that the south region | is connected to, and those region are heavily importers of | electricity creating a higher demand than there is available of | cheap energy. For example, in order to address this there is a | oil power plant operating basically 24/7 and does so very | profitably even with high oil prices. | cjblomqvist wrote: | From what I understand it's also (mainly?) because the southern | areas pricing is very connected to Danish and German markets. | alkonaut wrote: | Maybe someone should sabotage some energy infrastructure on | the Baltic seabed to ensure better prices in Sweden... | TazeTSchnitzel wrote: | Another factor affecting the price is that, while there's a lot | of hydropower generated in northern Sweden, there's not enough | capacity for transferring energy to the south where most | consumption is. The investors building industry in the north | that can use cheap renewable energy don't seem to mind though. | :) | ncmncm wrote: | That is, surely, fixable by constructing transmission lines | massively cheaper than nukes. | rags2riches wrote: | Transmission capacity from the northern hydro to the | southern nuclear regions has decreased due to the closing | of reactors in the south. Power transmission is more | complex than just building a fatter pipe to pour more water | through. Having stable power in the south is a prerequisite | to transfer hydro power from the north. | Gwypaas wrote: | New export cables will be ready the day these would come | online, if the ever come online. Decoupling the SE4 and SE3 | regions from the European energy market will never be a | sustainable solution due to the possible arbitrage. | NKosmatos wrote: | The only green solution to our current energy problem is more | nuclear power plants. We have to stop relying on coal, wood, oil, | gas and the rest of the "dirty" materials. | [deleted] | f_allwein wrote: | Except nuclear is expensive and takes decades to build, runs on | non renewable materials (a good percentage of which come from | Russia), leaves waste that is deadly for 100.000s of years, and | promising new technologies will need decades to reach maturity. | | Now why is it so great compared to, say, solar or geothermal? | NKosmatos wrote: | Well, I agree with you that they're expensive and take time | to build, but they don't leave that much waste compared to | what we've been told and their materials have more or less | the same problems as the ones from renewable ones (batteries, | non recyclable blades, exotic materials for solar...). | | I fully support solar, hydro, geo, wind and any other more | eco friendly ways, but they don't generate stable electricity | and with the needed capacities our modern society needs. I've | read articles about different ways to store clean electricity | and ways to convert coal burning plants with geothermal ones, | but I feel that these are not enough. | | We (as a planet) need a lot of clean electricity as soon as | possible or we're screwed :-) | f_allwein wrote: | Oh wait! And will stop working if your rivers should run dry, | as happened in France this summer. | | Oh and! May not be so easy to build, supposing not everyone | loves the technology as much as you do. Google Wackersdorf. | | Edit: of course, you assume you'd be able to run your power | plants safely throughout their life span, even if _cough_ a | natural disaster were to occur nearby. | ncmncm wrote: | Wind and hydro are probably more practical in Sweden. | | Geothermal is not having a heyday because it depends on the | same sort of expensive-to-operate steam turbines as nukes do, | so is uncompetitive. | | Anytime steam turbines have to compete with no steam | turbines, the steam turbines tend to lose. | f_allwein wrote: | Maybe so, but that doesn't mean anyone should use nuclear. | Perhaps we could come up with ways to distribute renewable | energy globally? | ncmncm wrote: | Right, there is never any legitimate justification to | build new nukes. | | At the moment, existing nukes can still be operated at | competitive marginal cost, neglecting original capital | cost, and _carefully_ not counting continuing subsidies | in opex. As renewables costs continues on down, even just | nukes ' subsidized opex will be unsustainable. | moffkalast wrote: | Geothermal doesn't really work for most places, since you'd | have to drill down for tens of kilometres to get the required | temperature. If you can use it then great, but it's a rarity. | | > Now why is it so great compared to, say, solar | | Works at night, works in winter, doesn't take up half the | country in surface area, has a constant output throughout the | day, costs slightly less per kWh (may vary), provides waste | heat that can be used for central heating, etc. | lnsru wrote: | Meanwhile in Germany: https://switzerlandtimes.ch/world/german- | greens-remain-firm-... | | Welcome to The new dark ages in Germany. Leading politicians even | do not have any higher education: | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricarda_Lang It's scary how these | people decide about topics they have no idea about. | froh wrote: | Dr Angela Merkel holds a PhD in quantum physics. she stands by | her cabinets decision to leave nuclear energy in densely | populated Germany, as per a recent interview. | | renewables will provide for 80% of Germanies energy needs by | 2030, and close enough to 100% in 2050. | oifjsidjf wrote: | How exactly will you be 100% renewable during a cloudy and | windless period with solar and wind? | froh wrote: | Dunkelflaute is 0.5% - 1.5% of the year and most of the | events last shorter than 24h | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute | | in my book 98.5% easily fits the bill of "close to 100%" | | so the answer is exactly what we do today: have a reserve | capacity. part of that may even be traditional peaker power | plants that remain turned off most of the year just like | today. | | I'd be curious about climate data on the distribution of | Dunkelflaute duration, by region. | elihu wrote: | Pumped hydro storage, batteries, and/or long-distance grid | interconnection. It's not often overcast in the Sahara, as | far as I know, and solar power imported from far to the | east and west can mitigate the day/night cycle problem. | | It's reasonable to keep ICE power plants around as an | emergency backup; if you have to use them for a week in | January or when infrastructure breaks for whatever reason | it's not the end of the world. Ideally things would run | smoothly enough that they'd never be used. | nathanaldensr wrote: | You are assuming geopolitical realities that will... | never be reality. The entire issue of Germany's | dependence on energy from another country makes this | obvious. | | You also assume that power plants can just be flipped on | and off like a light switch. They can't. | Manuel_D wrote: | Transmitting energy over long distances is way more | difficult than you make it out to be: | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OpM_zKGE4o | ncmncm wrote: | Trolling is unwelcome here, thank you. | Georgelemental wrote: | The comment you are replying to was not "trolling"; it | raised a legitimate, technical objection to a policy in a | manner that invites constructive responses (for example, | "with storage technology" is a common response I see). | ncmncm wrote: | It is trolling because the answer --storage -- is well | known to anybody who cares enough to do the most shallow | of research. So, everyone left is a troll. | Manuel_D wrote: | Then it'd be good to mention what this storage mechanism | is, and examples of existing commercial deployments said | storage mechanism and their cost history. It's odd to see | someone insist that the solution is _so_ obvious that | anyone who doesn 't recognize it is trolling, yet they | neglect to mention what that solution is. | Georgelemental wrote: | Storage is a common answer, but it has problems of its | own. Presumably the OP considers these problems fatal; if | you disagree, say so and explain why. | [deleted] | Manuel_D wrote: | Intermittency is one of the most difficult parts of | building a majority renewable grid. Dismissing the | biggest challenge in building a renewable grid as | trolling is not a good look. | [deleted] | capitainenemo wrote: | The last I read into Germany's plan to be "100%" renewable, | it was using other countries in Europe to provide the base | load using their hydro and nuclear. Which is great so long as | they have excess to provide Germany I suppose. | | There does not seem to be nearly enough construction of | pumped storage or battery to cover the unevenness of German | wind power. In fact, their prices have gone negative | repeatedly in the past, which is not in fact a good thing. | (OMG help, we'll pay anyone to take this power before the | grid blows up!) | ncmncm wrote: | It would be stupid to spend on storage before there is | enough renewable generating capacity to charge it from. In | the meantime they spend, sensibly, on renewable generating | capacity. | | By the time there is enough, storage will be massively | cheaper. In the meantime, charging storage from gas or coal | and then drawing it down is the same as burning gas or coal | for immediate use, just with losses. | capitainenemo wrote: | The storage should be built in conjunction with the | renewable generation to avoid those excess grid damaging | events which is just wasteful. Similar issue to US where | constructing generation is being subsidised but not | constructing storage along with it. | ncmncm wrote: | There are no "grid damaging events". | capitainenemo wrote: | Correct, because they price it negatively to avoid that | happening. It's still indicative of a problem. | elihu wrote: | Batteries will probably be cheaper, but pumped hydro | storage will probably cost about the same since it's a | mature technology. | | I could see Norway or Switzerland being major players in | pumped hydro storage, given their geography. | | Awhile back I did a bunch of math to try to figure out | how much stored gravitational energy is in Lake Mead, and | if I didn't make any major mistakes it came out to be | about as much energy as the U.S. uses (as electrical | energy) in 24 hours. The idea of moving that amount of | water around on short time scales is hard to fathom. | Manuel_D wrote: | The cost of batteries is actually rising, now that | manufacturing costs only make up ~25% of a battery's cost | [1]. The remaining 75% is raw materials, dominated by the | cathode and anode, which are having trouble keeping up | with demand [2]. | | 1. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the- | cost-of-a... | | 2. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/ev-battery-costs-set- | to-spik... | ncmncm wrote: | The cost of batteries is immaterial to anything being | discussed here. | | As you already knew l. | Manuel_D wrote: | From the previous comment: | | > Batteries will probably be cheaper, | | The above commenter clearly thinks that batteries are | going to provide cheap storage. | | If you have some alternative plan for storage at the | scale of tens of terawatt hours, please do tell. | ncmncm wrote: | The overwhelming majority of storage will not be | batteries, unless a massively cheaper battery chemistry | takes over. | | Lake Mead stores (well, stored) radically less energy | than mountaintop reservoirs with thousands of feet of | "head" can hold behind cheap earthen dikes. Look up | "penstock". | froh wrote: | > we'll pay anyone to take this power before the grid blows | up | | that's not how that works. | | also: | | Dunkelflaute is 0.5% - 1.5% per year and only very rarely | for longer than 24h. peaker power plants are turned off | most of the time today and a combination of those and | decentralized battery storage will easily buffer | Dunkelflaute in Germany. | | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute | Isolus wrote: | In fact, many believe that storage as hydrogen shows | promise. There are many test plants for this right now in | areas with a lot of wind and connection to the national gas | grid. | | The idea is that the hydrogen can then be used in existing | gas power plants. | ncmncm wrote: | Hydrogen is one of many practical storage media. Many | will be used, different ones favored in different places. | Hydrogen is particularly suited for places with large, | stable underground cavities. | noja wrote: | You're likely in the giant country that is the USA, with large | swathes of lightly populated land. Germany isn't that. | anigbrowl wrote: | Without endorsing her political positions, it's false to assert | that Lang does 'not have any higher education'; your own link | states 'After graduating from the Holderlin-Gymnasium Nurtingen | in 2012, Lang began studying law, first at the Heidelberg | University and later at the Humboldt University of Berlin, | eventually dropping out in 2019 without graduating.' | | Relying on hyperbole like this undermines your own argument. | Isolus wrote: | Germany is a densely populated country. We already don't know | where to put the nuclear waste. No one wants it on his or her | doorstep. The cost of storage alone is a nightmare. | | The nuclear exit was supported by the population and not | decided against them by politicians. | | And to your criticism: A lot of politicians in germany are | lawyers. Are they allowed do decide for the country? Do they | have an idea about nuclear topics? ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-10-14 23:00 UTC)