[HN Gopher] Chaos theory eliminates quantum uncertainty
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Chaos theory eliminates quantum uncertainty
        
       Author : bookofjoe
       Score  : 55 points
       Date   : 2022-10-16 13:18 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (iai.tv)
 (TXT) w3m dump (iai.tv)
        
       | mg wrote:
       | The article seems to distill the concept of quantum uncertainty
       | into this statement:                   there is an inherent
       | uncertainty         about what happens to a quantum
       | system when we attempt to observe it
       | 
       | Is this a good way to put it?
       | 
       | I'm not sure if with "quantum uncertainty", they refer to the
       | same thing as Wikipedias "uncertainty principle" page:
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle
       | 
       | The Wikipedia page sounds somewhat different (and harder to
       | grasp) to me. It talks about predicting future states of pairs of
       | physical quantities after knowing the initial conditions.
        
         | Filligree wrote:
         | Not at all. There's no uncertainty, even.
         | 
         | Unless we're talking subjective uncertainty, in which case
         | yeah, not literally everyone has landed on many-worlds yet.
        
       | bookofjoe wrote:
       | One word: 'Devs'
        
       | Comevius wrote:
       | This argument by Tim Palmer is in line with our intuitions, and
       | his expertise while we are at it, but I'm pretty sure it's wrong.
       | Quantum uncertainty is due to how quantum reality works, we just
       | don't know exactly how quantum effects result in our classic
       | reality, namely general relativity. I'm pretty sure the answer to
       | that is something way less intuitive than chaos theory. I think
       | Tim Palmer have spent his life chasing determinism in dynamical
       | systems, and now everything is a nail to his hammer.
        
         | mistermann wrote:
         | It also overlooks that humans exists in reality, and humans run
         | on consciousness (so they say), and consciousness (and the
         | motion and causality that _emerges_ from it) remains somewhat
         | of a black /invisible box to scientists.
        
           | Comevius wrote:
           | That doesn't have anything to do with it, classical physics
           | (for example gravity) exists independently from us.
        
             | mistermann wrote:
             | If scientists were to explicitly state that they are only
             | describing _a subset of reality_ (the physical /material
             | realm), I would be more forgiving.
             | 
             | But rather, they typically speak like this (from the
             | article):
             | 
             | "Quantum mechanics is usually described as a theory of
             | atoms and sub-atomic particles, but in truth it is believed
             | to be a theory that underpins everything in the world,
             | including the weather and the galaxies - all of reality."
             | 
             | Based on my observations, there seems to be a set of topics
             | whereby most instances of human mind lose their ability to
             | desire to know what is true. It if often easy to see this
             | flaw in others (for example: non-theists observing
             | theists), but seeing similar flaws in oneself is far
             | trickier (say: materialists contemplating metaphysical
             | ideas).
             | 
             | (Note: this phenomenon applies to me as well, although I
             | suspect not to the same degree as most.)
        
       | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
       | I like the idea of digging deeper into counterfactuals at
       | foundational levels. Science that has any use needs valid
       | counterfactuals. It tells us that if we arrange stuff just like
       | so, we can engineer things. Or that no matter what action we
       | take, the heat death of the universe will happen.
       | 
       | But counterfactuals and foundations don't mix easily, especially
       | in QM where "what if I had measured X" isn't a really valid
       | question in the standard view (the quantum zeno effect is an
       | example of how hypothetical measurements and actual measurements
       | _aren 't_ the same in QM).
        
       | dvt wrote:
       | In one of his papers ( _Undecidability, Fractal Geometry and the
       | Unity of Physics_ , 2020), he dismisses Schrodinger's equation as
       | being problematic for his theory (because it's linear so I guess
       | "easy" to work with). And I'm no physicist, but I don't really
       | get it: isn't the equation essentially the culmination of the
       | physical _reality_ of particles having complementary properties?
       | 
       | So in that sense, isn't uncertainty baked into our reality (and
       | thus still ontological)? Even ignoring all the weird stuff that
       | happens with entangled particles, spooky action at a distance,
       | and all that. I literally _cannot_ measure both the momentum and
       | the position of a particle to an arbitrary position
       | simultaneously.
        
       | ogogmad wrote:
       | Is it possible to have a quantum theory where there is no
       | "measurement"? The universe simply evolves according to the Dirac
       | or Shroedinger equations, and the phenomenon that we call
       | measurement is an emergent, statistical property?
       | 
       | The motivation for the question is that in quantum physics there
       | are two phases:
       | 
       | 1. The phase where everything is quantum, and things evolve
       | according to Dirac or Schroedinger. The state of a system at any
       | given time then determines its state at all times in the future
       | _and_ in the past. Everything is in all possible classical states
       | at once.
       | 
       | 2. Some measurement happens that is irreversible. The quantum
       | state collapses, and information about the quantum state before
       | the collapse is lost. The result is a single classical state.
       | 
       | I haven't read TFA, but having something like phase 2 be emergent
       | from phase 1 seems like a major breakthrough. Phase 2 is then an
       | illusion. This seems better than the status quo. (I am not a
       | physicist).
        
         | gus_massa wrote:
         | Yes.
         | 
         | My preferred version is something-something-decoherence
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_decoherence The people
         | that work in that are call it "Decoherence", but it's not
         | finished, there are still a lot of details to fix, and perhaps
         | it will need still like 50 or 100 years of hard work before
         | it's completed. So it's too green and I prefer a funny name
         | like "something-something-decoherence" to avoid confusion. And
         | perhaps it's the wrong explanation.
        
         | sampo wrote:
         | > Is it possible to have a quantum theory where there is no
         | "measurement"? The universe simply evolves according to the
         | Dirac or Shroedinger equations, and the phenomenon that we call
         | measurement is an emergent, statistical property?
         | 
         | Doesn't the many-worlds interpretation fit your description? It
         | of course has it's own weirdness.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation
        
           | ogogmad wrote:
           | Is MWI (which appears to only assert that there is a
           | wavefunction for the whole universe) a form of
           | superdeterminism?
        
       | nathias wrote:
       | if this is true and the experiment can be explained away, this
       | would not tell us anything about the world, but shift the
       | question about ontological determinism back to metaphysics and
       | outside of the reach of empirical knowledge
        
         | motohagiography wrote:
         | I had the impression it was set up mainly to assert a
         | metaphysical position by inventing uncertainty about quantum
         | physics' certain-uncertainty. I like outsider ideas more than
         | most people, but this one seemed like a pitch for something
         | self-centering. A lot of ideas about uncertainty are mainly
         | rhetorical devices for neutralizing concrete arguments and
         | opposition to the speakers underlying ideology, so personally I
         | read the article as a kind of propaganda.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | > if this is true and the experiment can be explained away,
         | this would not tell us anything about the world
         | 
         | Actually, it would tell us something very important, namely
         | that at the quantum level measurements are not statistically
         | independent.
         | 
         | > shift the question about ontological determinism back to
         | metaphysics and outside of the reach of empirical knowledge
         | 
         | Assuming by "ontological determinism", you mean to what extent
         | we can truly discover natural laws, I don't know why anyone
         | thinks this is a problem. Turing machines are simple and
         | deterministic and yet have undecidable problems; and yet we can
         | create a Turing machine that can enumerate the space of all
         | possible programs. It trivially follows that humans obviously
         | have enough degrees of freedom to enumerate all possible
         | theories that can explain some set of observations, so this
         | objection is a total nothingburger.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | I don't think Palmer has ever published anything on quantum
       | mechanical systems, so this claim seems questionable and might be
       | some kind of ideological viewpoint. Seems to wander well beyond
       | the author's sphere of expertise.
       | 
       | Palmer has nevertheless done a lot of interesting work in
       | atmospheric and oceanic systems. Here's one, which also explains
       | why current warming trends would persist for decades even if we
       | halted all fossil fuel use tomorrow, something many seem to not
       | have grasped:
       | 
       | "Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction", Slingo & Palmer
       | (2011)
       | 
       | > "In terms of seasonal to decadal prediction, the predictability
       | of the system resides primarily in the oceans, where the greater
       | thermal capacity and the much longer dynamical time scales for
       | adjustment impart a memory to the coupled ocean-atmosphere
       | system, which exceeds that for the atmosphere alone by several
       | orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, the ocean, like the
       | atmosphere, is a chaotic, nonlinear system, and so an ensemble
       | approach to seasonal to decadal prediction is fundamental to
       | forecasting on these time scales also."
       | 
       | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.201...
       | 
       | Anyone wanting a solid introduction to the notion of chaos in
       | fluid dynamics should look at work of the original researcher who
       | discovered the phenomenon, Ed Lorenz (1995) The Essence of Chaos.
       | 
       | https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/154291.The_Essence_of_Ch...
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | > I don't think Palmer has ever published anything on quantum
         | mechanical systems, so this claim seems questionable and might
         | be some kind of ideological viewpoint.
         | 
         | People are so quick to dismiss without any evidence. Why not
         | look at his actual publications:
         | 
         | https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/our-people/palmer/publications
         | 
         | Some choice excerpts:
         | 
         | * Bell's theorem, non-computability and conformal cyclic
         | cosmology: A top-down approach to quantum gravity,
         | https://avs.scitation.org/doi/10.1116/5.0060680
         | 
         | * Supermeasured: Violating Bell-Statistical Independence
         | Without Violating Physical Statistical Independence,
         | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10701-022-00602-9
         | 
         | * Discretization of the Bloch sphere, fractal invariant sets
         | and Bell's theorem,
         | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2019.035...
         | 
         | * The Invariant Set Postulate: a new geometric framework for
         | the foundations of quantum theory and the role played by
         | gravity,
         | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2009.008...
         | 
         | The last is when he first started publishing about quantum
         | mechanics back in 2009, in which he described "invariant set
         | theory" as a new approach to quantum foundations that was well
         | received. He actually worked with Stephen Hawking on developing
         | supergravity before he switched to climate modelling.
        
           | photochemsyn wrote:
           | I guess that's what I get for only looking at the top page of
           | Google Scholar results for 'Palmer quantum chaos climate'.
           | However, Palmer's view on quantum systems does seem to be
           | pretty set and fairly ideological in nature (i.e.
           | experimental verification doesn't seem to be much of a
           | concern). For example:
           | 
           | (2005) "Quantum Reality, Complex Numbers, and the
           | Meteorological Butterfly Effect "
           | 
           | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/86/4/bams-86.
           | ..
           | 
           | > "By considering an idealization of the upscale cascade
           | (which provides a novel representation of complex numbers and
           | quaternions), a case is made for reinterpreting the quantum
           | wave function as a set of intricately encoded binary
           | sequences. In this reinterpretation, it is argued that the
           | quantum world has no need for dice-playing deities, undead
           | cats, multiple universes, or "spooky action at a distance.""
           | 
           | At this point, I think anyone pushing this view of how QM
           | works without experimental results to back it up is just
           | tilting at windmills.
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | > However, Palmer's view on quantum systems does seem to be
             | pretty set and fairly ideological in nature (i.e.
             | experimental verification doesn't seem to be much of a
             | concern).
             | 
             | I don't understand this objection. Palmer's theory would
             | have to be consistent with all existing evidence for
             | quantum mechanics. There's a rich unexplored area in
             | quantum foundations (superdeterminism), and he's found a
             | novel, plausible model for how it could work, so why
             | wouldn't he explore it fully until it's been contradicted?
             | 
             | A different interpretation on QM might also imply some
             | _new_ experiments that orthodox QM wouldn 't consider
             | interesting. For instance, Hossenfelder has suggested that
             | there might be some unusual regularities in repeated low
             | temperature experiments if superdeterminism is true,
             | regularities that would be implausible if reality is
             | actually indeterministic. Palmer's theory has testable
             | predictions for large-scale cosmology, so it's not like his
             | ideas are unfalsifiable in principle.
             | 
             | Furthermore, Palmer is a theoretician not an
             | experimentalist. Bell created his theorem but
             | experimentalists designed and ran the actual experiment.
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | >I don't think Palmer has ever published anything on quantum
         | mechanical systems, so this claim seems questionable and might
         | be some kind of ideological viewpoint. Seems to wander well
         | beyond the author's sphere of expertise.
         | 
         | Indeed.
         | 
         | The question of whether quantum uncertainty is epistemological
         | or ontological is formally undecidable (on the assumption that
         | quantum mechanics is actually true). For starters, there
         | already exists a quantum interpretation where uncertainty is
         | ontological: Bohmian mechanics. But you don't even need that.
         | All you need is to hypothesize a "cosmic Turing machine"
         | computing the digits of pi or some other normal number and the
         | stipulation that every time you do a quantum experiment the
         | result is the next digit that the TM writes to its tape. That
         | is an ontologicical interpretation of QM that is every bit as
         | valid as Bohmian mechanics, and every bit as useless.
         | 
         | It doesn't _matter_ whether quantum uncertainty is ontological
         | or epistemological. What matters is that the outcomes of
         | quantum measurements are fundamentally unpredictable _for the
         | entity conducting the experiment_. It doesn 't matter whether
         | the information generated by the experiment was pre-existing or
         | somehow magically came into existence by wave function collapse
         | or whatever, what matters is that the outcome is _not
         | predictable even in principle_. And so it doesn 't matter what
         | mathematical model you put underneath this unpredictability. It
         | can be axiomatic, it can be chaotic, or it can be a cosmic
         | Turing machine computing the digits of pi. It doesn't matter
         | because one of the things we cannot know, even in principle, is
         | which of these hypotheses are correct. It's a non-scientific
         | question.
         | 
         | [UPDATE] The general principle is that quantum experiments
         | produce an unbounded amount of information which cannot be
         | predicted from the finite information available to any observer
         | before those observations are made, so there has to be an
         | unbounded amount of "hidden" information "out there" somewhere
         | that in inaccessible except by performing quantum experiments.
         | Different interpretations hide this inaccessible information in
         | different places. Copenhagen hides it in wave function
         | collapse. Bohm hides it in the particle positions, which are
         | posited to be real numbers, every one of which contains an
         | infinite amount of information. Chaotic dynamics hides it in
         | the initial conditions which, like Bohmian positions, are real
         | numbers which contain an infinite amount of information. If you
         | look at how the math plays out, they are _literally_ reading
         | out digits of real numbers as if they were written on a TM
         | tape.
         | 
         | I think physics would benefit from the study of information
         | theory.
        
           | guerrilla wrote:
           | > It doesn't matter whether quantum uncertainty is
           | ontological or epistemological. What matters is that the
           | outcomes of quantum measurements are fundamentally
           | unpredictable for the entity conducting the experiment. It
           | doesn't matter whether the information generated by the
           | experiment was pre-existing or somehow magically came into
           | existence by wave function collapse or whatever, what matters
           | is that the outcome is not predictable even in principle. And
           | so it doesn't matter what mathematical model you put
           | underneath this unpredictability. It can be axiomatic, it can
           | be chaotic, or it can be a cosmic Turing machine computing
           | the digits of pi. It doesn't matter because one of the things
           | we cannot know, even in principle, is which of these
           | hypotheses are correct. It's a non-scientific question.
           | 
           | Thanks. That was actually really insightful. I never thought
           | about it like that. It's beyond the scope of science and what
           | models are _for_. We 'd be switching purposes at that point.
           | The tools only do what they are meant to: predict; it doesn't
           | make sense to them for to do something else (unless we
           | specify that new purpose), especially when we do so as if
           | we're not.
        
           | hackandthink wrote:
           | "It doesn't matter whether quantum uncertainty is ontological
           | or epistemological"
           | 
           | It matters for a lot of people, they want to know und
           | understand. And maybe somebody comes up with an experiment.
           | 
           | "What Bell's Theorem really shows us is that the foundations
           | of quantum theory is a bona fide field of physics, in which
           | questions are to be resolved by rigor- ous argument and
           | experiment, rather than remaining the subject of open-ended
           | debate.
           | 
           | In other words, it is a mistake to crudely divide quantum
           | theory into its practical part and its interpretation, and to
           | think of the latter as metaphysics, experimental or
           | otherwise."
           | 
           | Matt Leifer: "Is the Quantum State Real?..."
           | 
           | https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.1570.pdf
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | > maybe somebody comes up with an experiment.
             | 
             | Yes, it all turns on that. But the point is that coming up
             | with an experiment would in and of itself falsify QM. To
             | call that a major breakthrough would be quite the
             | understatement, and so I predict with great confidence that
             | it is not going to happen any time soon.
             | 
             | > it is a mistake to crudely divide quantum theory into its
             | practical part and its interpretation
             | 
             | That's true, but I am not dividing it crudely. I am simply
             | pointing out things that are logically implied by the
             | mathematical structure of the theory, and one of those
             | things is that quantum measurements bring new information
             | into the world. If anyone figures out a way to access the
             | source of that information, that information would no
             | longer be new, and that would falsify the theory. That is,
             | of course, possible. But again, I'll give long odds
             | against.
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | > And so it doesn't matter what mathematical model you put
           | underneath this unpredictability. It can be axiomatic, it can
           | be chaotic, or it can be a cosmic Turing machine computing
           | the digits of pi.
           | 
           | I don't think this is correct. Each formal model will allow
           | you degrees of freedom that are ruled out by other models
           | because the axioms differ. This is why a quantum field theory
           | for Bohmian mechanics has been much harder to formulate than
           | it was for Copenhagen, for example.
           | 
           | Unifying quantum mechanics with general relativity could
           | actually be easier under a "fractal model" of quantum
           | mechanics than it is with Copenhagen.
           | 
           | Edit on your [update]:
           | 
           | > [UPDATE] The general principle is that quantum experiments
           | produce an unbounded amount of information
           | 
           | That doesn't sound correct either. No experiment can produce
           | an unbounded amount of information. I'm not sure where you're
           | getting this idea.
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | > Each formal model will allow you degrees of freedom that
             | are ruled out by other models because the axioms differ.
             | 
             | Nope. All QM interpretations produce the same predictions.
             | They are formally equivalent in the same sense that lambda
             | calculus and TMs are equivalent.
             | 
             | The reason it is hard to unify Bohm and relativity to
             | produce a Bohmian quantum field theory is that Bohm is
             | committed to an intuitionistic metaphysics that requires
             | there to be an answer to which measurement of an entangled
             | system was performed first, and so it requires the
             | imposition of an arbitrary foliation of space-time. This is
             | a _metaphysical_ requirement, not a physical one. That is
             | what makes it hard to extend Bohm to a field theory.
             | 
             | > No experiment can produce an unbounded amount of
             | information.
             | 
             | No _single_ experiment can, but over time you can do an
             | unbounded number of experiments. Note that I am
             | deliberately using the term  "unbounded" rather than
             | "infinite". These are not the same. An unbounded quantity
             | is finite at any given time, but it can keep growing
             | without an upper bound.
             | 
             | (In actual fact all of these numbers are probably finite
             | and bounded because the observable universe is finite and
             | the second law of thermodynamics puts a limit on how many
             | experiments you can do.)
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | > Nope. All QM interpretations produce the same
               | predictions.
               | 
               | Correction: the same _observable_ predictions in the
               | domains we 've tested. They all have different
               | metaphysical implications which impact the plausibility.
               | 
               | > They are formally equivalent in the same sense that
               | lambda calculus and TMs are equivalent.
               | 
               | No, that's not strictly correct. Bohmian mechanics allows
               | the existence of quantum non-equilibrium, as but one
               | example. Isomorphism is fine as an informal analogy, but
               | it's not strictly true.
               | 
               | > This is a metaphysical requirement, not a physical one.
               | That is what makes it hard to extend Bohm to a field
               | theory.
               | 
               | The axioms of _every_ interpretation are metaphysical.
               | The axioms are what let you make certain steps in one
               | interpretation that cannot be done in another. This is
               | why unifying GR with Bohmian mechanics is hard but isn 't
               | with Copenhagen, which is exactly what I said.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > Correction: the same observable predictions
               | 
               | "Observable" is redundant. A prediction in science is
               | understood to mean a prediction about the outcome of an
               | experiment, i.e. a prediction about an observation.
               | 
               | > in the domains we've tested.
               | 
               | No. The predictions of all QM interpretations are the
               | same, full stop. If this were not the case we would not
               | be having this conversation at all, we could determine
               | which interpretation was correct by doing an experiment.
               | 
               | (There is one exception to this, and that is GRW
               | collapse, which predicts that there is some macroscopic
               | scale at which systems stop exhibiting quantum behavior
               | because of internal spontaneous collapse. But so far all
               | experiments have falsified this.)
               | 
               | > The axioms of every interpretation are metaphysical.
               | 
               | No, that's not true. Bohmian positions are physical.
               | Collapse is physical. Multiple worlds are physical.
               | 
               | The thing that makes Bohmian foliations metaphysical is
               | not that they are unmeasurable, it is that they are
               | _arbitrary_. You cannot tell which foliation is correct
               | _even in principle_.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | > If this were not the case we would not be having this
               | conversation at all, we could determine which
               | interpretation was correct by doing an experiment.
               | 
               | No, that's not correct. Again, Bohmian mechanics allows
               | for quantum non-equilibrium, but we're not yet sure how
               | to create such a state. So it is does make observably
               | different prediction, in principle. This prediction is
               | just not within experimental reach at the moment.
               | 
               | Most interpretations make equivalent predictions, but not
               | all. Those predictions that differ are outside of domains
               | we've tested.
               | 
               | > No, that's not true. Bohmian positions are physical.
               | Collapse is physical. Multiple worlds are physical.
               | 
               | They are physical by virtue of metaphysical assertions
               | about what does and does not exist, ie. the axioms.
               | 
               | > The thing that makes Bohmian foliations metaphysical is
               | not that they are unmeasurable, it is that they are
               | arbitrary. You cannot tell which foliation is correct
               | even in principle.
               | 
               | A preferred foliation can be derived from the wave
               | function in Bohmian mechanics. You can arguably do
               | without one. Both references are cited here:
               | 
               | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10955-015-1369
               | -8
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > Bohmian mechanics allows for quantum non-equilibrium,
               | 
               | Yes, of course. In Bohmian mechanics, particles have
               | actual locations, and so _of course_ those locations
               | cannot be required to obey the Born rule except by
               | hypothesis. But it does not follow that...
               | 
               | > it ... does make observably different prediction, in
               | principle
               | 
               | > but we're not yet sure how to create such a state
               | 
               | > This prediction is just not within experimental reach
               | at the moment
               | 
               | It is not just that we "don't know" how to create these
               | non-Born states, it is that creating such a state would
               | _falsify quantum mechanics_. Creating such a state would
               | necessarily involve some physical process that violates
               | the Schroedinger equation. No such process has ever been
               | observed. It is possible that this could change, but it
               | 's extremely unlikely. And there is absolutely no reason
               | to believe that such a new process, were it to ever be
               | discovered, would have anything to do with Bohmian
               | mechanics. It is as likely that we will discover a
               | violation of conservation of energy or the second law of
               | thermodynamics as we are to discover a violation of QM.
               | 
               | > They are physical by virtue of metaphysical assertions
               | about what does and does not exist, ie. the axioms.
               | 
               | Well, yeah. The whole _idea_ of  "physical" is itself a
               | metaphysical assertion. We could be living in a
               | simulation.
               | 
               | > A preferred foliation can be derived from the wave
               | function in Bohmian mechanics. You can arguably do
               | without one.
               | 
               | OK, that's news to me, but I don't have time to read that
               | paper right now. I'll put it on my reading list.
               | 
               | [UPDATE] They want $40 to access that paper. If you want
               | to send me a copy I'll read it, but I won't pay that much
               | for access to one paper. Sorry.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | > and there is absolutely no reason to believe
               | 
               | Logic and epistemology seem to often take a backseat when
               | the mind comes in close contact with the unknown.
               | 
               | > Well, yeah. The whole idea of "physical" is itself a
               | metaphysical assertion. We could be living in a
               | simulation.
               | 
               | Similarly, when it finds itself in these circumstances,
               | it can often be observed flipping between 100% certainty
               | and 100% uncertainty (the middle ground, _the unknown_ ,
               | seems a "highly undesirable" place to be). On one hand,
               | you might say this is "just people being people", but I
               | am suspicious whether it is actually that simple.
               | 
               | It's called the _Hard_ Problem of Consciousness for good
               | reason, I think.
        
         | sampo wrote:
         | > I don't think Palmer has ever published anything on quantum
         | mechanical systems, so this claim seems questionable and might
         | be some kind of ideological viewpoint. Seems to wander well
         | beyond the author's sphere of expertise.
         | 
         | I don't think anyone can be an that much of an expert in
         | quantum foundations. It's a research topic full of questions
         | and not much answers, so you don't need deep expertise to grasp
         | the current situation and the limits of current knowledge. In
         | that sense, it should be a free game for almost anyone with a
         | PhD in physics.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_foundations
        
       | MontyCarloHall wrote:
       | Chaotic systems are deterministic, but so sensitive to initial
       | conditions that even slight perturbations will lead to wildly
       | different, seemingly random outcomes. But if you could prepare
       | two chaotic systems with _exactly_ the same initial conditions,
       | they would both follow the same trajectory. In practice, this is
       | often impossible to do, since it requires drawing two real
       | numbers within some absurdly small epsilon of each other (for the
       | trajectories to be equivalent within some delta of each other, on
       | some finite timescale Delta t. epsilon - > 0 as delta -> 0, Delta
       | t -> infinity).
       | 
       | We think of quantum randomness as truly random because the states
       | are quantized, so it's easy to initialize a system with the exact
       | same starting conditions and watch it follow unpredictable
       | trajectories.
       | 
       | Is this basically arguing that if we treat the entire universe as
       | some macroscopic quantum state, comprising all the individual
       | states of each discrete quantum, it would evolve
       | deterministically? However, since we are only powered to observe
       | a few quanta at a time, they appear to evolve completely
       | randomly, but only because we are not privy to the states of
       | every other quantum state in the universe?
        
         | defrost wrote:
         | The Lorenz Attractor pictured is a trajectory through pase
         | space for a single initial condition; the key result from
         | Lorenz (and from Smale with his Horseshoe maps) is that for ANY
         | absurdly small epsilon you can find two initial positions
         | within that epsilon that end up seperated down the track in
         | time ...
         | 
         | ergo, your: > since it requires drawing two real numbers within
         | some absurdly small epsilon of each other.
         | 
         | just won't do.
        
           | MontyCarloHall wrote:
           | Yup, I was sloppy with my writing. I just clarified it.
        
         | wodenokoto wrote:
         | Sixty symbols did a video on spooky actions at a distance
         | coinciding with the Nobel prize this year for the same thing.
         | 
         | It explains why we can show that it cannot be hidden variable /
         | immeasurable initial state that causes the randomness.
         | 
         | Basically we can change the probabilities of experiment B, made
         | on particle B, by changing the experiment we do on particle A.
         | 
         | I suppose that entanglement could still live in a deterministic
         | world. E.g, given initial state/variable and interaction with
         | entangled particle A, B will behave so and so. I'm sure you
         | could work out a number of initial states for A and B and how
         | each set of states react to each other, that could give the
         | same proportions as the probabilities mentioned in the video.
         | 
         | But given that initial states cannot be measured, is it really
         | a better explanation?
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/0RiAxvb_qI4
        
           | zmgsabst wrote:
           | I'm curious why non-local hidden variables aren't a bigger
           | topic, given that we know there's non-local quantum numbers,
           | eg those carried by anyons.
           | 
           | If we believe reality is non-local, then why would we also
           | believe it's non-determinate?
        
         | deng wrote:
         | > Is this basically arguing that if we treat the entire
         | universe as some macroscopic quantum state, comprising all the
         | individual states of each discrete quantum, it would evolve
         | deterministically?
         | 
         | Yes, I think in the end he is arguing for Superdeterminism,
         | although for some reason he does not mention that concept in
         | his article.
        
         | mistermann wrote:
         | > Chaotic systems are deterministic
         | 
         |  _By definition_ , chaotic systems "are" deterministic, but it
         | does not necessarily follow that all systems that have had a
         | label of "chaotic" attached to them are necessarily
         | deterministic. It can certainly cause them to take on that
         | appearance from certain frames of reference though.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | > the states are quantized, so it's easy to initialize a system
         | with the exact same starting conditions
         | 
         | That doesn't seem right. Position, velocity and momentum etc.
         | are not discrete values in quantum mechanics. It is not
         | practically possible to repeatedly put particles into the same
         | exact state.
        
         | thrown_22 wrote:
         | >since it requires drawing two real numbers within some
         | absurdly small epsilon of each other.
         | 
         | Not small, zero.
        
           | MontyCarloHall wrote:
           | Definitely, if we care about the outcome of the trajectories
           | as t\to\infty.
           | 
           | For certain systems, at smaller timescales, merely an absurd
           | amount of precision will suffice [0,1].
           | 
           | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_exponent
           | 
           | [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_time
        
         | zmgsabst wrote:
         | I think that last paragraph is right.
         | 
         | If everything shares some weak correlation with the stuff
         | around it, then it might experience 10^-6 or whatever
         | perturbation experiment to experiment, and accordingly the runs
         | deviate according to some statistics about the system. Or the
         | state of the early universe. Or something we don't understand.
        
         | nobodyandproud wrote:
         | > We think of quantum randomness as truly random because the
         | states are quantized, so it's easy to initialize a system with
         | the exact same starting conditions and watch it follow
         | unpredictable trajectories.
         | 
         | With hidden variables--which by all accounts haven't been ruled
         | out--it means we cannot do this.
         | 
         | That is to say, there's no way you can tell you've set the same
         | initial conditions.
        
           | guerrilla wrote:
           | > With hidden variables--which by all accounts haven't been
           | ruled out--it means we cannot do this.
           | 
           | Local hidden variables have been ruled out. So it's not
           | really like chaotic systems at all, whose development is
           | internal.
        
             | shadowgovt wrote:
             | The development of a fractal isn't internal. Its shape is
             | completely predetermined by its mathematical description.
             | 
             | I think what the author is trying to say is that we could
             | imagine the universe is a massively hyper-dimensional
             | fractal that we are utterly hopeless to determine the
             | initial starting point on. I can't immediately see a reason
             | that model wouldn't work, but its descriptive power
             | (relative to QM) is basically nil... To be consistent with
             | the observations that demanded a quantum mechanical
             | understanding of the universe, we have to introduce the
             | idea that we can't know where we are on the fractal, so
             | this is more a philosophical pondering than a physical one.
        
             | nobodyandproud wrote:
             | Non-local hidden variables have not.
        
               | guerrilla wrote:
               | So it's not really like chaotic systems at all, whose
               | development is internal.
        
               | nobodyandproud wrote:
               | Can you explain why non-locality means non internal?
        
             | sampo wrote:
             | > Local hidden variables have been ruled out.
             | 
             | Superdeterminism is a local hidden variable theory, that
             | has not been ruled out. Superdeterminism circumvents the
             | Bell's theorem, by extending determinism not only to the
             | things being measured, but also to the entities doing the
             | measurements.
        
         | texaslonghorn5 wrote:
         | For the last part, I think so. You could imagine the universe
         | as being operated on by some giant Hamiltonian operator with a
         | basis of eigenstates, and then the amplitudes will just
         | deterministically evolve according to the Schrodinger equation.
        
       | superb-owl wrote:
       | I can't get past the paywall, but I'd be curious to know what his
       | solution to the violation of the Bell inequality is.
        
         | bookofjoe wrote:
         | https://archive.ph/6kaJc
        
         | lupire wrote:
         | "Counterfactual Fractal Geometry" , so Bell's inequality only
         | applies in a reality that is different from our true reality.
         | 
         | > We have to suppose that the whole universe, and literally
         | everything there is in it, is collectively a chaotic system
         | evolving precisely on some cosmic fractal geometry. "
         | 
         | I guess one way of trying to make it make sense is that he
         | believes in global hidden variables (non-locality), which
         | reduces physics to "things are exactly this kind of weird
         | because all the complexity of the universe is encoded in one
         | giant number present at the big bang that is available to every
         | particle forever.
        
         | EGreg wrote:
         | He explains it in the article. Questioning one of the
         | assumptions in the Bell theorems
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | Indeed, he's on the superdeterminism train with Sabine
           | Hossenfelder:
           | 
           | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.00139.
           | ..
        
             | fsh wrote:
             | I am not aware of any superdeterministic theory that can
             | explain the violation of Bell's inequality. They only argue
             | that a violation of Bell's inequality is _not impossible_
             | in a superdeterministic local hidden variable theory (but
             | no such theory has been formulated). I suspect this is why
             | Hossenfelder just knocks down a few strawmen in her video
             | on superdeterminism [1], instead of addressing the elephant
             | in the room (experimental violations of Bell 's
             | inequality).
             | 
             | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytyjgIyegDI
        
               | rafaelero wrote:
               | Accepting the very simple assertion that the thing being
               | measured is not independent from the act of measurement
               | already renders the bell inequality invalid.
        
               | naasking wrote:
               | Of course there are:
               | 
               | * Hossenfelder's own toy model,
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.01327v5
               | 
               | * Gerard 't Hooft's cellular automata model: https://webs
               | pace.science.uu.nl/~hooft101/gthpub/FFP11_2010.p...
               | 
               | * https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/714819
               | 
               | Models that violate Bell's theorem are in fact simple to
               | construct. Everyone agrees that superdeterminism can
               | evade Bell's theorem, the key is making this evasion as
               | plausible or more plausible than accepting many worlds or
               | the absence of counterfactual definiteness.
               | 
               | Given so little effort has been expended in this
               | direction because of incorrect assumptions of
               | superdeterminism, it's not surprising that these models
               | are still rudimentary proofs of concept, but the notion
               | that Bells' theorem is some insurmountable obstacle is
               | just incorrect.
        
       | gus_massa wrote:
       | > _Of course, this is such a startling conclusion that physicists
       | have looked for other ways to explain Bell's theorem. There is
       | indeed an alternative interpretation, but it is too weird to be
       | plausible. It assumes that the settings for the apparatus that
       | measures the spin of one of the entangled particles somehow
       | influence the measurement outcome for the other particle. It is a
       | weird explanation because it implies what Einstein called "spooky
       | action at a distance" - the idea that what happens to one
       | particle can instantaneously influence another, distant particle.
       | Einstein didn't like spooky action at a distance, and neither do
       | I, nor indeed most physicists I know._
       | 
       | I agree, nobody likes any of the current explanations.
       | 
       | > _But to understand this, we have to think big, very big indeed.
       | We have to suppose that the whole universe, and literally
       | everything there is in it, is collectively a chaotic system
       | evolving precisely on some cosmic fractal geometry. In this
       | picture, there is no guarantee that hypothetical counterfactual
       | worlds that you simply cooked up in your head, will lie on this
       | fractal geometry. If they don't, then these counterfactual worlds
       | will be inconsistent with the assumed geometric laws of physics._
       | 
       | So the proposal is even worse. There are some universes that are
       | possible and some universes that are impossible in spite they
       | locally look good and you changed just a tiny thing from a
       | possible universe. It's even more unintuitive and horrible that
       | all the current proposals. It looks like a hidden global variable
       | theory, but I'm, not sure.
       | 
       | I don't understand all the digression about chaos and fractals.
       | If you assume that the possible universes is a dense subset of
       | the imaginable universes (like the rational numbers in the real
       | numbers), it will make the trick. Also any manifold would be
       | probably fine.
        
         | texaslonghorn5 wrote:
         | If you have a red ball and a green ball, and you put each in a
         | box, and you randomly pick one of the boxes and give the other
         | to your friend, and you travel a trillion miles away and open
         | the box, you instantly know what color ball your friend has.
         | This is just classical correlation.
         | 
         | Or a more entanglement-like example, you randomly pick a pair
         | of red socks or green socks from your drawer but don't know
         | what you picked. Then put the socks you picked into two boxes
         | and give one box to your friend. If you go a trillion miles
         | away and look at your sock then your friend is guaranteed to
         | have the same color. This isn't quite entanglement or the Bell
         | pair since it's a mixed state, but the same idea of classical
         | correlation holds and so these kinds of "action at a distance"
         | scenarios aren't impossible from a classical perspective.
        
           | gus_massa wrote:
           | What you are describing is a "hidden variable" theory. They
           | are disproved by the experiments of the Bell's inequality.
           | It's more weird, much more weird.
           | 
           | Let's continue with your experiment about the pair of red or
           | green socks. If you and your friend measure if they are red-
           | or-green, both will get the same results. This can be
           | explained with a classical theory. Nobody disagree with that.
           | 
           | The weird part is that you can measure if they are 50%red and
           | 50%green! Can I call it yellow? This makes no sense with
           | classical socks and colors, but it makes sense for quantum
           | particles and other properties.
           | 
           | But there are two ways to combine 50%red and 50%green, the
           | technical notation is (R+G)/sqrt(2) and (R-G)/sqrt(2), one
           | with a plus and one with a minus. Can I call them good-yellow
           | and bad-yellow? Or you prefer yellow and blue? In one of the
           | experiments, red means vertical and green horizontal, so one
           | of the combinations is a 45deg diagonal like this / and the
           | other is a 45deg diagonal like this \\. You don't need fancy
           | equipment to measure the combinations, it's just a polarizer
           | rotated 45deg. Can I call them yellow and backyelow? I prefer
           | good-yellow and bad-yellow because it's more clear that
           | something weird is happening.
           | 
           | If you measure red-or-green and your friends measures good-
           | yellow-or-bad-yellow, then the results will not be
           | correlated. If you got "red", your friend has a 50%
           | probability of getting good-yellow and a 50% probability of
           | getting bad-yellow. There is nothing to explain here.
           | 
           | If you and your friend measure if they are good-yello or bad-
           | yellow, both will get again the same results. This can be
           | again explained with a hidden variable theory. Both socks
           | "know" what to say if they are asked if they are red-or-green
           | and what to say if they are asked if the are good-yellow-or-
           | bad-yellow.
           | 
           | It get's more interesting when you pick more combinations,
           | like 90%red and 10%green. Can I all it orange? And you can
           | pick 10%red and 90%green. Can I call it lemon? If you measure
           | red-or-green and your friends measures orange-or-lemon, then
           | if you got red, your friend will get orange 90% of the time.
           | 
           | And there are good-orange, bad-orange, good-lemmon and bad-
           | lemmon. And there are many more shades of orange-yellow-
           | lemon. But this is getting too long.
           | 
           | You can have very smart socks that know what to answer for
           | every possible combination of colors. So if you and your
           | friend ask for the same color, whatever it is, both get the
           | same result.
           | 
           | The problem is when you and your friend measure many times
           | using the correct shades of orange and lemon. So the results
           | don't agree 0% neither 100%. You can count how many times you
           | get each combination of results, like (red-vs-dark-orange, or
           | green-vs-bright-yellow), and then add and subtract some of
           | them.
           | 
           | If you assume the socks can's communicate with the other
           | socks before answering, then the result of the calculation is
           | smaller then some number. But in the experiments disagree.
           | 
           | There are some videos with all of this, with a better and
           | longer explanation by MinutePhysics and 3Blue1Brown
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcqZHYo7ONs and
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRCDLre1b4&t=0s
        
       | chatterhead wrote:
       | Quantum parallax with observer based views creates an infinite
       | series of state changes.
        
       | lupire wrote:
       | This is a climate scientist saying (without justification) that a
       | century of physicists missed the obvious trivial explanation. A
       | little humility is in order.
       | 
       | The whole crux of QM, as shown by actual experiments in lab, is
       | that it really is different from just really complicated
       | classical mechanics.
        
         | sampo wrote:
         | > This is a climate scientist saying (without justification)
         | that a century of physicists missed the obvious trivial
         | explanation.
         | 
         | As far as I understand, and even though the article doesn't
         | call it by name, he is making a case for superdeterminism.
         | Which hasn't been missed, but has it's own Wikipedia article.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdeterminism
         | 
         | In fact, Bell (of Bell's theorem fame) himself discussed
         | (super)determinism as a way to escape Bell's theorem.
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | > This is a climate scientist saying (without justification)
         | that a century of physicists missed the obvious trivial
         | explanation. A little humility is in order.
         | 
         | He's a mathematical physicist [1] that happens to work on non-
         | linear dynamical systems that apply to climate models. You
         | know, like the non-linear dynamics seen in a quantum
         | measurement. Maybe don't be so dismissive. He won the Dirac
         | gold medal for theoretical physics in 2014, for instance.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Palmer_(physicist)
        
       | kcexn wrote:
       | This is a wild over simplification of what 'chaos' theory is
       | actually studying and the statements it makes.
       | 
       | Chaos theory in general states that for some deterministic
       | systems, small changes in the initial conditions can lead to a
       | wildly different deterministic outcome.
       | 
       | A closer metaphor than the butterfly metaphor is a car on a wet
       | road.
       | 
       | Think of driving your car on a wet road. This is a completely
       | deterministic system, there is nothing we don't know about how
       | cars handle on wet roads. When you take that one corner too fast
       | however, your car loses traction on the road, whether your car
       | spins out or just fish tails for a bit before straightening out
       | depends a great deal on the speed and angle that you entered the
       | corner at. If you don't know the speed or angle that you entered
       | the corner accurately, you don't know if you can bring the car
       | back under control again or not.
       | 
       | I don't think anybody in the field of Quantum Mechanics doubts
       | that it is possible for Quantum effects to be entirely
       | deterministic. But it may be so sensitive to small changes in
       | initial conditions (which may be as far back as the birth of the
       | universe), that even if we knew the exact deterministic equations
       | to solve for Quantum Mechanical systems, they would never make an
       | accurate prediction.
        
       | stephc_int13 wrote:
       | What seems clear, so far, is that our models are still not
       | perfect and can't describe all of our observations or
       | experiments.
       | 
       | We're talking about the map, not reality.
       | 
       | Given that after quite a bit of time we have almost reached
       | scientific consensus, but not quite, I think humility is
       | required.
       | 
       | There are a few hints showing that QM is not the end game.
        
         | FridayoLeary wrote:
         | Science was pretty much agreed upon in the Middle Ages. Most
         | philosophers agreed that Aristotle and the Greeks had pretty
         | much worked everything out. Point is a consensus can be very
         | far from the truth. As it stands the Standard Model is, to
         | quote somebody 'a hideous cludge'. It relies on many invisible,
         | undetectable entities such as 'dark matter', 'dark energy' all
         | kinds of subatomic particles, yet it cannot explain gravity. It
         | also introduces concepts such as inflation. Worse still, it is
         | contradicted by qm!
         | 
         | I think it's still possible that the entire standard model
         | might still be uprooted in favour of something simpler.
        
         | vecter wrote:
         | Curious, what are those hints?
        
           | sampo wrote:
           | Do the double slit experiment in a non-uniform gravitational
           | field. Nobody knows how to calculate that.
           | 
           | We have two perfectly good and internally consistent
           | theories: Quantum mechanics and general relativity. But they
           | are inconsistent with each other.
        
             | vecter wrote:
             | Ah yes. My understanding is more that we have to make
             | gravity fit within QM as opposed to the other way around,
             | but perhaps a unified theory would require changes to QM
             | also?
        
           | senko wrote:
           | Gravity
        
       | scythe wrote:
       | >In a series of technical papers I have developed a mathematical
       | model where the counterfactual worlds which arise when you try to
       | prove Bell's theorem do not lie on the assumed fractal geometry
       | of the universe.
       | 
       | If I'm reading this correctly, the author is describing a model
       | of superdeterminism -- although it's not clear where fractal
       | geometry comes into play.
        
         | drdec wrote:
         | > If I'm reading this correctly, the author is describing a
         | model of superdeterminism -- although it's not clear where
         | fractal geometry comes into play.
         | 
         | My (limited) understanding was that the fractal geometry was
         | part of the hidden variable system which is limiting the
         | possible universes. The idea being that if a potential universe
         | needs to correspond to a point in a fractal, then making a
         | small change (via a counterfactual) could easily result in a
         | universe which is not a point in the fractal.
        
       | roywiggins wrote:
       | It kind of smells like superdeterminism? In which the universe is
       | conspiring to make you choose the correct measurements during
       | Bell tests to result in the observed correlations.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdeterminism
        
         | rafaelero wrote:
         | Or the observed correlations are caused by the measurement?
        
         | naasking wrote:
         | It is superdeterminism. "Conspiracy" is a feature of some
         | superdeterministic theories, but not all.
        
           | n4r9 wrote:
           | Do you mean "theories" or "models"? If the former, please
           | could you provide an example of a superdeterministic theory?
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33224172
        
         | sampo wrote:
         | > It kinds of smells like superdeterminism?
         | 
         | Yes. From your link: _Physicists Sabine Hossenfelder and Tim
         | Palmer have argued that superdeterminism "is a promising
         | approach not only to solve the measurement problem, but also to
         | understand the apparent non-locality of quantum physics"._
         | 
         | (Tim Palmer is the author of the posted article.)
        
       | nyc111 wrote:
       | "Philosophers call this "epistemological" uncertainty -
       | uncertainty to do with lack of knowledge."
       | 
       | Nature is self-similar. If we observe epistemological uncertainty
       | in the macro world, the same will be true for the micro world.
       | 
       | This is an example of physicists appropriating a philosophical
       | question and trying to solve it by data analysis.
        
         | Robotbeat wrote:
         | Physics is just "natural philosophy."
        
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