[HN Gopher] Humans and our livestock account for 96% of all mamm...
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       Humans and our livestock account for 96% of all mammal biomass
        
       Author : astroalex
       Score  : 119 points
       Date   : 2022-10-27 19:41 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ourworldindata.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ourworldindata.org)
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | From a 2017 breakdown of the world's biomass, it appears that the
       | "humans and livestock...of mammal biomass" were very carefully
       | picked, to give the most extreme possible percentage -
       | 
       | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1711842115
        
         | baxtr wrote:
         | From that paper:
         | 
         |  _We find that the kingdoms of life concentrate at different
         | locations on the planet; plants ([?]450 Gt C, the dominant
         | kingdom) are primarily terrestrial, whereas animals ([?]2 Gt C)
         | are mainly marine, and bacteria ([?]70 Gt C) and archaea ([?]7
         | Gt C) are predominantly located in deep subsurface
         | environments._
        
       | teruakohatu wrote:
       | Here is the paper for which this article is based:
       | 
       | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0801918105
       | 
       | The paper is about megafauna rather than all mammels.
       | 
       | This highly cited paper calculates the biomass of every class of
       | organism, figure 1 is especially fascinating.
       | 
       | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1711842115
       | 
       | Animals are tiny proportion of the world's biomass, with insects
       | dominating that class, along with fish and molluscs.
        
         | WithinReason wrote:
         | The weight of all viruses is greater than the weight of all
         | mammals
        
           | freedude wrote:
           | now add bacteria, fungi, and ants...
        
       | warbler73 wrote:
        
       | pvaldes wrote:
       | Lets take in mind that there is a problem to compare two groups
       | when one group is much easier to measure than the other. The
       | error interval in the mammal biomass should be much higher. The
       | actual real values are probably not so extreme.
       | 
       | ... I see, is just megafauna. The most competitive groups
       | (rodents and bats) are deliberately excluded. The title is
       | incorrect then.
        
         | deathanatos wrote:
         | Certainly the article might not be credible, but can you cite
         | the relevant text from the article, so that the rest of us can
         | quickly verify your claim? I'm not seeing where in the article
         | this is stated.
        
           | pvaldes wrote:
           | whales, dolphins and seals are also excluded.
           | 
           | > "biomass from marine mammals - mainly whales - is not
           | included"
           | 
           | They discuss specifically about megafauna and large
           | terrestrial mammals in most paragraphs and figures.
        
         | nightpool wrote:
         | Is this true? This source
         | (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1711842115) gives a very
         | similar percentage (95.8% of all wild mammals) and doesn't
         | mention anything about excluding rodents or bats from the
         | categorization of wild mammals. Is it in a footnote somewhere
         | that I'm missing?
        
         | club_tropical wrote:
         | Also, "biomass" is a strange term. Is that literally an
         | estimate of mass? Or count of individuals? Many other context
         | lacking as well.
         | 
         | This is clearly written for the 96% statistic shock, not to
         | inform anyone.
        
           | aaron695 wrote:
        
           | doliveira wrote:
           | Pretty sure that's the estimate of carbon content, but it's a
           | proper scientific concept.
        
           | jonnycomputer wrote:
           | Biomass is probably exactly the right measure, when we are
           | talking ecology. A lot of mice to weigh up to one cow, it is
           | true, but then, you could feed a lot of mice on the grain
           | with which you feed your cow.
        
           | myshpa wrote:
           | RTFA.
           | 
           | "To understand how the richness of the mammal kingdom has
           | changed we need a metric that captures a range of different
           | animals and is comparable over time. We could look at their
           | abundance - the number of individuals we have - but this is
           | not ideal. We would be counting every species equally, from a
           | mouse to an elephant and this metric would therefore an
           | ecosystem taken over by the smallest mammals look much richer
           | than one in which bigger mammals roam: if the world's mouse
           | populations multiplied and multiplied - maybe even to the
           | detriment of other animals - then this abundance metric might
           | suggest that these ecosystems were thriving.
           | 
           | Instead, ecologists often use the metric biomass. This means
           | that each animal is measured in tonnes of carbon, the
           | fundamental building block of life.1 Biomass gives us a
           | measure of the total biological productivity of an ecosystem.
           | It also gives more weight to larger animals at higher levels
           | of the ecological 'pyramid'"
           | 
           | https://ourworldindata.org/mammals#the-decline-of-wild-
           | mamma...
        
           | nicoburns wrote:
           | > Also, "biomass" is a strange term. Is that literally an
           | estimate of mass?
           | 
           | It is indeed. The idea being that individuals vary greatly
           | (it doesn't make sense to compare individual counts of humans
           | with individual counts of ants for example), and that mass at
           | least roughly accounts for the size of individuals.
        
           | pvaldes wrote:
           | Biomass is the whole mass of life beings, a standard and
           | common measure that represents the energy contained in a
           | particular group.
           | 
           | Talking in terms of biomass is very common in Ecology.
        
             | club_tropical wrote:
             | I think it is an unclear and bizarre term. "The energy
             | contained in one group" - what energy? Is a lean cheetah
             | "less-energy" than an elephant? Why? Or do you literally
             | mean energy like calories (which, IIRC means "how much heat
             | if burned").
             | 
             | What a bizarre metric, nobody thinks like this, I don't
             | even think "ecologists" understand why they should think in
             | terms of mass. I, too, can have a metric: number of
             | decibels of sound you can produce; maybe humans make up a
             | SHOCKING 3% on that- doesn't mean it's a sensible metric.
        
       | chrishare wrote:
       | Devastatingly sad. Are plant-based meat replacements and lab-
       | grown meat going to help fix this?
        
         | FredPret wrote:
         | Devastatingly misleading, they excluded many kinds of mammal
         | from their measurement.
        
         | rcarr wrote:
         | One day, whilst eating a burger in a pub and thinking about the
         | food chain, I ran a thought experiment in my head. I imagined
         | being hungry and someone offering me a choice between a ham
         | sandwich or a vegan sandwich. I could only select the ham
         | sandwich if I was willing to shoot a pig in the head. I
         | wouldn't have to butcher the pig or anything else, just be
         | responsible for its death. I decided that I would choose the
         | vegan sandwich. This lead me to believe that by continuing to
         | eat meat I was shirking responsibility and passing the pain of
         | killing an animal on to someone else so I decided to go vegan.
         | The environmental benefits were secondary and I was under no
         | illusions as regards to health; I believed (and still do) that
         | it is worse for you than both vegetarian and meat containing
         | diets.
         | 
         | It was around 2016-2017 and I lived in a small town in northern
         | England. Veganism was only just starting to make it into the
         | mainstream; there weren't any vegan options at any of the fast
         | food places and there was about one freezer worth of vegan
         | alternatives if you went to a large supermarket. I found
         | transitioning over to a meat free diet surprisingly easy. The
         | hardest thing about it wasn't cravings for foods you couldn't
         | eat like you might expect. The hardest thing was the social
         | aspect of it.
         | 
         | I slowly found myself being pushed out of social circles.
         | People knew you were vegan so there was no going for a burger
         | or a KFC or any other bonding activities over food. People
         | would cook Linda McCartney sausages if you brought them round
         | to a BBQ but you could tell they didn't appreciate the extra
         | fuss.
         | 
         | I tried really hard not to be the loud, shouty, fussy vegan but
         | as soon as anyone found out the questions would start. People
         | were curious about why I was vegan and I would tell them. The
         | vast majority of people admitted to feeling bad about eating
         | animals. They didn't want to think about where their food was
         | coming from and I was a living symbol in front of them that
         | they could stop doing that if they really wanted to. Eating was
         | celebration after hard work and, just with my presence, I was
         | ruining that for them.
         | 
         | At the time I was heavily into fitness and I noticed that
         | achieving my protein intake was really difficult. It would
         | require having 3 to 4 protein shakes a day or doing lots of
         | cooking and prep. All the natural vegan protein sources outside
         | of protein shakes weren't lean; they also contained lots of
         | carbs or fats. This made hitting macros hard. Food became a
         | chore and I didn't feel particularly healthy. If anything I
         | felt my health declining.
         | 
         | I went for a walk one day and ran the thought experiment again.
         | I decided that yes, this time I would take responsibility and
         | kill the pig. And that was that. At the end of my walk I went
         | into a Subway, ordered a meatball sub and went home to eat it.
         | I expected to have gastrointestinal distress having not eaten
         | meat for so long but there was nothing. My body went right back
         | to processing it as if I'd never stopped.
         | 
         | The one thing that this whole experience taught me is that food
         | is tied deeply into culture and bonding. I very strongly
         | believe that plant based sources are not going to be the
         | solution to this problem. There is just too much social
         | resistance to overcome.
         | 
         | From my experience, the only way of solving this problem is
         | petri dish meat. Not plant based, but actual meat tissue, grown
         | in factories. Why? People will still get the joy of eating meat
         | and maintain their traditions without the guilt. It also has
         | the potential to actually be better and cheaper than regular
         | meat. If scientists can perfect the processes, they can make it
         | taste like prime beef every time but with a fraction of the
         | economic and environmental costs. It can be sold as an upgrade
         | not a downgrade which is what people see veganism as.
        
           | dqv wrote:
           | >There is just too much social resistance to overcome.
           | 
           | We're really only on the second wave of veganism right now. I
           | can't say exactly when the first wave "ended", but I'd say
           | the second wave started to roll in after 2010. But in this
           | second wave, there is a lot of culture being developed that I
           | believe will sustain a third wave. Whereas the first wave had
           | a bunch of early adopters who had very odd food habits (i.e.
           | eating barely palatable food or eating 50 bananas a day),
           | this second wave is developing new food culture. There are
           | large communities like the Vegan Soul Food Group. Groups like
           | this share recipes and tips for making vegan food and,
           | frankly, it's damn good. Not everything is the best
           | nutritionally, but that's not why everyone is adopting
           | veganism in the first place. There are also high profile
           | chefs (and burgeoning chefs too) who are coming on the scene.
           | Gaz Oakley, Yeung Man, Andrew Bernard, Vegan Bunny Chef.
           | There are all sorts of accounts on tiktok with culturally-
           | specific vegan foods - Mexican, Indian, Korean, Japanese,
           | Chinese, Ghanaian. Not to mention all of the "accidentally
           | vegan" foods that already existed before.
           | 
           | These people are leading the way to a vibrant vegan food
           | culture. They're developing new traditions and practices
           | right before our very eyes. And a lot of people are joining
           | in as a result. The younger generation is much less obsessed
           | with this sort of "tradition perfectionism" where _every
           | element_ has to be there to make it a tradition. They were
           | much more willing to change and adapt traditions to fit their
           | own personal and moral beliefs.
           | 
           | The third wave, I think, is going to come as a result of what
           | you're talking about. We have some great things like nut-
           | based cheese, but also on the horizon (beyond meat ;) are
           | things like vegan casein and whey, which will make it even
           | easier to be vegan. At that point, the third wave will be as
           | if people were never vegan in the first place.
        
             | rcarr wrote:
             | I honestly think this is going to have the opposite effect
             | of what you think it will. People outside of metropolitan
             | areas are sick to death of "new traditions and practices"
             | and "high profile" names. They see it as another
             | bourgeoisie vs proletariat battleground.
             | 
             | They do not want "new food culture" they want the existing
             | culture but more environmentally friendly. You aren't going
             | to pry the burgers out of their hands no matter how good
             | your beyond burger is. But if you make a petri dish burger
             | that tastes better than a dead cow you might stand a chance
             | of them getting behind it.
             | 
             | You can say the younger generation doesn't care about old
             | traditions but people have been saying this throughout
             | time. Young people have a habit of growing old and more
             | conservative when they gain more life experience and
             | realise that the traditions they rallied against in the
             | youth were actually developed for a good reason.
        
           | Arnavion wrote:
           | >It would require having 3 to 4 protein shakes a day or doing
           | lots of cooking and prep. All the natural vegan protein
           | sources outside of protein shakes weren't lean; they also
           | contained lots of carbs or fats. This made hitting macros
           | hard.
           | 
           | A large number of Indian people are vegetarian (plants +
           | poultry eggs + cow/goat milk), and I've never heard of them
           | having such problems. Why? I certainly didn't have any
           | dietary or nutritional problems when I grew up as a
           | vegetarian there.
        
             | heavyset_go wrote:
             | If you're body building or doing serious exercise, it can
             | be hard to get the protein your body needs to recover and
             | build muscle on a strictly vegan diet. I've tried it and
             | it's difficult.
        
               | Arnavion wrote:
               | You've simply restated rcarr's point without answering my
               | question.
        
             | SaddledBounding wrote:
             | It's because the grandparent comment has misconceptions
             | about nutrition, including that animal products are
             | necessary for a healthful diet and how much protein is
             | required for a healthful diet.
             | 
             | The first misconception is contradicted by extensive
             | analysis by health organizations such as [Academy of
             | Nutrition and Dietetics][1]. Healthful vegan diets are no
             | less healthful than healthful non-vegan diets.
             | 
             | The second misconception is about how much protein is
             | needed in a healthful diet. Many people wildly overestimate
             | how much protein a person needs, especially when strength
             | training. It is not difficult to get sufficient protein
             | within a given calorie budget while on a vegan diet, even
             | without using protein supplements. For instance, tofu and
             | seitan have protein to calorie ratios similar to meat, with
             | seitan often having a _higher_ protein to calorie ratio
             | than most meats.
             | 
             | [1]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27886704/
        
               | rcarr wrote:
               | Go and have a look at the amino acid profiles of seitan
               | and tofu and also their bioavailability in comparison to
               | meat and vegetarian protein sources. And you can talk all
               | you want about people overestimating protein macro but 1
               | to 2 grams per lb of bodyweight has consistently shown to
               | be optimal. You'll be hard pressed to find any high
               | performing athlete who isn't aiming for that outside of
               | endurance sports.
               | 
               | At the end of the day in my experience, a vegan diet is
               | both a lot more hard work and less healthy than a non
               | vegan one. Saying that a vegan diet isn't any less
               | healthy than a meat eating or vegetarian one is an
               | absolute joke, especially considering there are no vegan
               | foods containing vitamin B12 outside of yeast flakes and
               | artificial supplements.
        
       | izzydata wrote:
       | How is there still an ecosystem?
        
         | thrown_22 wrote:
         | 1). There isn't one for big mammals any more. The majority of
         | the ecosystem is locked up in plants and bacteria. For example
         | fungi outweigh all _animals_ by roughly 6 times. Bacteria by 30
         | times and plants by 200 times.
         | 
         | 2). We're the major drivers in the processes that used to limit
         | biomass on the planet. The nitrogen cycle is dominated by
         | humans [0] where depending on how you measure it we've done
         | something between doubling it and increasing it by an order of
         | magnitude. The same is true for all the other limiting cycles.
         | By comparison the carbon cycle has been barely touched.
         | 
         | 3). Mammals are rather big and we don't like big things trying
         | to eat us/step on us. Mammal global mass has been decreasing
         | since the last ice age when we figured out how to hunt mammoths
         | to extinction and 8,000BC when we domesticated goats.
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_impact_on_the_nitrogen_c...
        
         | rplst8 wrote:
         | Plants, reptiles, amphibians, insects, marsupials, fish,
         | bacteria, algae, fungus, etc.
        
         | ElevenLathe wrote:
         | Unfortunately there barely is.
        
         | TOGoS wrote:
         | I also wonder this. Some thoughts:
         | 
         | 1) Life is remarkably adaptive. 2) There probably won't be much
         | longer.
        
       | myshpa wrote:
       | https://ourworldindata.org/biodiversity
       | 
       | Wild mammals:
       | 
       | 100.000 years ago ... 20 mil. tonnes of carbon
       | 
       | 10.000 years ago ... 15 mil. tonnes of carbon
       | 
       | 100 years ago ... 10 mil. tonnes of carbon
       | 
       | now ... 3 mil. tonnes of carbon
       | 
       | https://ourworldindata.org/mammals
       | 
       | "Wild mammal biomass has declined by 85% since the rise of human
       | civilizations. This was mainly driven by overhunting and habitat
       | loss."
       | 
       | "Wild animals only make up 4% of the world's mammals; humans
       | account for 34%, and our livestock for 62%."
       | 
       | "More than 178 of the world's largest species went extinct during
       | the Quaternary Extinction. Overhunting was likely the main
       | driver."
       | 
       | "One-quarter of the world's mammal species are threatened with
       | extinction. Most are in the tropics."
       | 
       | "It is the largest mammals that are at the greatest risk of
       | extinction. Most due to overhunting and poaching."
       | 
       | Cowspiracy [https://www.cowspiracy.com/facts]:
       | 
       | "Ten thousand years ago, 99% of biomass (i.e. zoomass) was wild
       | animals. Today, humans and the animals that we raise as food make
       | up 98% of the zoomass."
       | 
       | Postgrowth [https://medium.com/postgrowth/the-bomb-is-still-
       | ticking-2810...]:
       | 
       | ""Research by Professor Vaclav Smil from the University of
       | Manitoba in Canada shows that as a percentage of mammalian
       | zoomass, human beings and our domesticated mammalian animals (for
       | food, beasts of burden and as pets) have gone from <0.1% 10,000
       | years ago, to 10-12% at the start of the industrial revolution to
       | between 96-98% today."
        
         | jonnycomputer wrote:
         | Has total biomass (not just wild biomass) declined? I would
         | expect it has, because most modern farming tries very hard to
         | make sure the only thing growing is the thing that makes the
         | farmer profit. A lot of farms are ecological wastelands; or
         | rather, they sustain less biomass than they could.
        
       | rplst8 wrote:
       | Key word... Mammal.
        
       | myshpa wrote:
       | The sad thing is that 100 years ago humans and livestock
       | accounted for around 5% of the biomass (all zoomass, not land
       | mammals only), 95% being the wildlife. Now the numbers are
       | reversed.
       | 
       | We've stolen the land from the wildlife and dedicated it to a few
       | species we consider edible (agriland is more than forests now,
       | and 75% of it for animal agriculture).
       | 
       | Is anybody surprised that we're living in the anthropocene,
       | defined by massive die off of wild species?
       | 
       | We have to (as a species) return the land to wildlife and let it
       | repopulate the earth, otherwise we'll lose them. We don't even
       | know what gems we're losing. I'm not talking about some bugs, but
       | about dna - those are millions of years of (computer) code
       | generated by nature, code so precious we don't even have an idea
       | how to simulate it, let alone understand it (at this point in our
       | evolution).
       | 
       | If we lose it, goodbye new medicines, new regenerative dna
       | techniques, new technologies, and who knows what. We simply
       | cannot know what we're stealing from future humans (this point
       | was made for the selfish humans we are, better arguments could be
       | made).
        
         | throwawaysleep wrote:
         | Build more zoos then. That's the only realistic solution.
        
           | rvba wrote:
           | More nature reserves.
        
         | thegrimmest wrote:
         | > _otherwise we 'll lose them_
         | 
         | So what? What _value_ are these species? What are they _for_? I
         | 'm sure we'll be able to advance medicine in other ways. I'm
         | much more concerned about the longevity of our civilization
         | than the other organics we happen to have coevolved with. If we
         | have to pave over the whole planet then so be it. Organic life
         | is common and therefore expendable. If we all die off, new life
         | will almost certainly evolve, but a new civilization? That's
         | much less certain.
        
           | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
           | What the hell, man.
        
           | davzie wrote:
           | This HAS to be trolling!
        
         | cmpb wrote:
         | The article indicates that the bulk of the extinction of large
         | mammals happened during the Quaternary Extinction[1], between
         | 52kya and 9kya, so 100 years ago the damage was already done.
         | It also makes the argument that the extinction events in each
         | region coincided with the arrival of humans to that region,
         | which would imply that these extinctions were not due to
         | climatic changes.
         | 
         | I don't mean to imply that we're doing enough right now to keep
         | our planet healthy. I agree with your sentiment and just wanted
         | to provide a little context and clarification.
         | 
         | [1] https://ourworldindata.org/mammals#quaternary-megafauna-
         | exti...
        
           | myshpa wrote:
           | 100.000 years ago ... 20 mil. tonnes of carbon
           | 
           | 10.000 years ago ... 15 mil. tonnes of carbon
           | 
           | 100 years ago ... 10 mil. tonnes of carbon
           | 
           | now ... 3 mil. tonnes of carbon
           | 
           | https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2021/04/Decline-of-
           | wild-m...
           | 
           | First 5 mil. tonnes took 90.000 year. Next 5 mil. 9.900
           | years. Next 7 mil. 100 years. 3 mil. remain, most of the
           | megafauna is already gone.
           | 
           | If we continue this trend, in 30 years there'll be only mice,
           | mosquitos, and medusas. And farm animals, of course.
           | 
           | We have to switch to plant-based diets. Now. There is no
           | other way. No time to wait for technological breakthroughs.
        
       | docmechanic wrote:
       | This statistic always takes the top of my head right off: "The
       | dominance of humans today is clear: us and our livestock account
       | for 96% of global mammal biomass. Wild land mammals make up just
       | 2%."
       | 
       | If you, like me, wondered about poultry ...
       | 
       | "Here we focus on mammal populations, so neither wild birds or
       | poultry are included. But for birds the story is similar: our
       | poultry biomass is more than twice that of wild birds. "
        
         | freedude wrote:
         | Good point about birds. Add them to amphibians, fish and
         | insects and it would make this look less impressive.
        
           | timeon wrote:
           | Less impressive? Do you think there is no significant loss of
           | biodiversity?
        
             | freedude wrote:
             | In the cities yes. I live outside the city. Some of the
             | biodiversity near me is deadly and city dwellers haven't a
             | clue.
             | 
             | Regardless, fish outweigh mammals by at least an order of
             | magnitude. then calculate arthropods, mollusks, bacteria
             | and plants and you will see this is an overstating of a
             | complex ecosystem.
        
         | gtvwill wrote:
         | Reminds me of the matrix. Agent smith said it so well.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgS1Lwr8gq8
        
           | deathanatos wrote:
           | Or perhaps Agent Smith mistook an S-curve that hasn't started
           | to level off yet for unfettered exponential growth.
           | 
           | > _Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their
           | growth rates in recent decades_
           | 
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#Population_g
           | ...)
           | 
           | Or perhaps he was just evil and had a hatred of humanity that
           | he was justifying with whatever reason pleased him.
        
             | nonrandomstring wrote:
             | > Or perhaps he was just evil and had a hatred of humanity
             | that he was justifying with whatever reason pleased him.
             | 
             | For me. Agent Smith isn't coded as evil. He represents the
             | cold rationality of the scientific algorithm - "I've been
             | studying your species...". He's simply curious. It would
             | never occur to Smith to "justify" anything, even to
             | simulate pleasure. Smith represents what Kant called the
             | limits of pure reason - the ability to measure, compute and
             | model everything, but understand nothing.
        
             | AtlasBarfed wrote:
             | But has their resource consumption per capita leveled off?
             | 
             | Population numbers aren't the scary thing about our CURRENT
             | population.
             | 
             | What's scary is that China and India, which is almost 3
             | billion people, want US-levels of resource consumption, and
             | they are full steam ahead in doing so.
             | 
             | Oh, so the curve will tail off around 11 or 15 billion? Who
             | cares. Each billion is 3x the population of the US, and
             | they all want our standard of living, or BETTER.
        
               | eric-hu wrote:
               | I don't know about India, but China is undergoing major
               | problems with their population size.
               | 
               | https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/china-population-
               | shri...
               | 
               | > The country's total fertility rate decreased from 2.6
               | in the late 1980s - well above the 2.1 needed to replace
               | deaths - to just 1.15 in 2021.
               | 
               | China modified their child restriction law to 3 children
               | in 2021 only to drop the restriction altogether a few
               | months later.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-child_policy
               | 
               | > After only two months, in July 2021, all family size
               | limits as well as penalties for exceeding them were
               | removed.[8]
        
       | hunglee2 wrote:
       | becoming a sustainable food item is actually a great survival
       | strategy at the level of the species, something to consider
       | should earth ever be invaded by hungry aliens
        
         | booi wrote:
         | I for one welcome our new overlords. - booi, CEO Soylent Foods
         | Inc.
        
       | retrac wrote:
       | Going off on a tangent, but the scale of production is very hard
       | to grasp. I'm probably not the first person to observe this, but
       | I once did some napkin math about steel production, and what I
       | realized kind of blew me away. About 1.9 billion tonnes in 2020.
       | Like with billions of dollars, I have no intuition for such
       | numbers. Context is needed.
       | 
       | Global steel production just before WW I was about 70 million
       | tonnes. So production has increased about thirty-fold in one
       | century. That wasn't so shocking to me, at first. But 1910 was
       | not the beginning of the industrial era; things had been under
       | way for more than a century then. Railroads. Ocean liners.
       | Factories. Knives and rivets for fabric owned by hundreds of
       | millions of people. Dozens of skyscrapers in New York by then;
       | the Brooklyn Bridge hung on thousands of tonnes of cable. All
       | made out of steel.
       | 
       | Then it struck me. A few million tonnes a year in 1850. 70
       | million tonnes in 1910. All of it adds up to less than 1900
       | million tonnes. Every single tonne of steel manufactured by
       | humans from prehistory until about a century ago -- the entire
       | output of the industrial revolution -- amounts to less than one
       | year at current production.
        
         | giantg2 wrote:
         | "Every single tonne of steel manufactured by humans from
         | prehistory until about a century ago -- the entire output of
         | the industrial revolution -- amounts to less than one year at
         | current production."
         | 
         | The real questions are:
         | 
         | Does that include recycling?
         | 
         | If not, how do we see this being sustainable?
        
           | JoeAltmaier wrote:
           | Two reasons:                 the earth is made of iron, for
           | all intents and purposes            asteroids are often made
           | of iron
        
             | canadianfella wrote:
        
           | himinlomax wrote:
           | It can be sustainable with electrolytic furnaces powered by
           | carbon-free energy.
        
             | keithnz wrote:
             | I was looking at what the future of steel might look like
             | recently, I think this is quite interesting
             | https://www.hybritdevelopment.se/en/
        
           | akiselev wrote:
           | Yes, it does. About 40% of steel produced globally is
           | recycled and the number for some other metals like aluminum
           | are even higher. IIRC almost 80% of steel production in the
           | US is from recycled stock.
           | 
           | Processing ore is _very_ energy intensive. Problem is the
           | world needs a _lot_ of steel
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | Walk around and pick up a random rock. On average it's 5%
           | iron which combined with just a little carbon makes steel, so
           | no we aren't running out.
           | 
           | This is also why the Iron Age was such a big deal. The bronze
           | age required both copper and tin which where rare and didn't
           | generally show up near each other while you could operate a
           | shitty iron mine just about anywhere.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | Is there a reason the Bronze Age had to precede the Iron
             | Age? At least in the Mediterranean, the only continuous
             | civilisation I'm aware of was Egypt.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | inawarminister wrote:
               | AFAIK Africans, that is, the Bantu and related West
               | African peoples, went directly from Neolithic to Iron
               | Age, skipping Bronze.
               | 
               | For Mediterranean, it's mainly because the whole region,
               | Iraq, and Northwest India/Pakistan were already
               | integrated together as a trading unit, with factors
               | coming hp from Sumer and Assyria to trade with Dilmun,
               | Indus Valley, and Anatolia. Then the Phoenicians traded
               | tin from Iberia and all the way from Britain as well.
               | 
               | Funnily enough, Egypt only adopted bronze (and chariot)
               | at least for their armies after the whole Hyksos invasion
               | stuffs. That might be the basis for Exodus.
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | Bronze is much easier to create than iron which requires
               | higher smelting temperatures. The only reason we were
               | able to was likely through advances smelting bronze.
        
               | simlevesque wrote:
               | I can't recommend enough this blog series:
               | https://acoup.blog/2020/09/18/collections-iron-how-did-
               | they-...
        
             | giantg2 wrote:
             | Not that we would necessarily run out, but would a 5% ore
             | be financially viable, and how many places would be able to
             | operate it (geology for underground mines, location/eco
             | concerns for strip mines)? We also have to question they
             | typical coke and smelting process.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | patrec wrote:
         | So modern civilization currently requires the average human to
         | consume roughly 3-4 times his body weight in steel per year.
         | And given that steel production has roughly doubled in the last
         | 20 years, this will probably still go up a fair deal.
        
         | nly wrote:
         | "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is man's inability
         | to understand the exponential function."
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | Yup, I was Justin the town that has the worlds largest shipping
         | port by tonnage, all of it iron ore. I bet you'll never guess -
         | you've never heard of it.
         | 
         | The city and surrounds makes Mordor look nice.
        
           | taneq wrote:
           | Port Hedland?
           | 
           | Edit: Wow, Hedland is half of that, I was mainly thinking of
           | the Mordor bit.
        
         | ROTMetro wrote:
         | Is your number all New Metal (not to be confused with the
         | equally important to the world's economy Nu Metal production)
         | or is part of the 1.9 billion recycled/reclaimed? It appears
         | this number includes 450-500 million tons of reclaimed steel?
        
           | rcarr wrote:
           | In my opinion there hasn't been enough nu metal production
           | since early 00s, I think we should manufacture more black
           | bowling shirts with flames on them to incentivise uptake.
        
             | konfusinomicon wrote:
             | the Korn market has been in steady downtrend for years, but
             | with such a decline in quality it's no surprise
        
         | eloff wrote:
         | Wow! Probably similar numbers for concrete. It's exponential
         | growth.
         | 
         | The thing about exponential growth is it can't continue for too
         | long. As observers of Moore's Law will understand, eventually
         | you run out of resources or into other physical limits.
         | 
         | However, I'm quite confident that we can keep innovating and
         | growth will continue in one form or another. I don't think Elon
         | Musk is correct that human population will collapse. All it
         | takes is one subgroup to keep reproducing above the replacement
         | rate, and after enough generations they will come to dominate
         | and overall growth will continue. It's pretty much the law of
         | life - expand to consume all available resources, be that food,
         | space, energy, oxygen, whatever. You see it in bacteria, in
         | fish, in mammals large and small, and of course in humans.
         | 
         | There will be lot's of challenges there, and lots of need for
         | innovation so we can handle growth without destroying our
         | remaining wild spaces and ecosystems on which we depend. Humans
         | haven't figured out how to grow sustainably yet.
        
           | istjohn wrote:
           | > All it takes is one subgroup to keep reproducing above the
           | replacement rate, and after enough generations they will come
           | to dominate and overall growth will continue.
           | 
           | Consequently, religion is going to thrive. Everyone else
           | stops reproducing once they reach a certain standard of
           | living.
        
         | whiddershins wrote:
         | I think Ray Kurzweil talking about future shock in the late 90s
         | provides a descriptive, if not satisfying, explanation.
        
       | ajsfoux234 wrote:
       | A comic from xkcd visualizes this fact: https://xkcd.com/1338/
        
       | JoeAltmaier wrote:
       | You have any prepper ideas about surviving an apocalypse and
       | living off the land, forget about meat. It'll be crickets or some
       | such. All the wild meat in the world will be gone in like 4 days
       | due to massive over-hunting.
        
         | beauzero wrote:
         | If you ever look in old barns that have been there before the
         | Great Depression (few but there are some) you will see rat
         | traps with holes drilled in them. They were used to hang on
         | trees to trap squirrels. Apparently this worked well the first
         | year...not so good for the decade after that.
        
         | klyrs wrote:
         | In an actual apocalypse, you'll find that people are made of
         | meat.
        
         | nicoburns wrote:
         | I'd guess that depends greatly upon where you live. Some places
         | are sparsely populated, and I suspect it's these rural people
         | who would have the best chance of surviving in an apocalypse.
         | The earth is a big place. There's a non-trivial chance that
         | some people wouldn't be affected at all.
        
           | JoeAltmaier wrote:
           | There are a LOT of people. Even a small percentage remaining,
           | would quickly deplete all available wildlife.
           | 
           | E.g. 1 deer will feed a family of four for a week. Or
           | somewhere about that.
           | 
           | There are approximately 100 deer per square mile in the US
           | midwest.
           | 
           | If population were depleted to a tiny fraction of what it is
           | now, there could still be about one family per section.
           | 
           | They would deplete the deer population to zero in 2 years.
        
             | nicoburns wrote:
             | There _are_ a lot of people. But not everywhere. What you
             | say will true for the US. But in more sparsely populated
             | and less accessible parts of the world it may not be.
        
               | HeyLaughingBoy wrote:
               | The US is pretty sparsely populated. Don't let the
               | crowded cities fool you. #161/203 rated by
               | population/land mass.
               | 
               | https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-
               | rankings/countries...
        
       | donatj wrote:
       | I'd always heard growing up that ants were the majority of the
       | earth's biomass.
        
         | OkayPhysicist wrote:
         | Ants are not mammals
        
       | Synaesthesia wrote:
       | I know they excluded birds, rodents, bats etc. But it's still
       | pretty staggering, all the wild mammals which used to dominate
       | the planet, gone.
        
         | timbit42 wrote:
         | Bats are mammals.
        
       | adamrezich wrote:
       | I can't be the only one who is extremely tired of these semi-
       | frequent utterly nihilistic "I'm sad to be part of the human
       | species, we're killing the planet" posts and comments, especially
       | when the posts themselves are possibly misleading (whales aren't
       | included? come _on_ ). I don't know about you but I'm quite happy
       | to be alive and reasonably healthy, and I hope to have many
       | children, I hope mankind doesn't go extinct anytime soon, and I'm
       | not going to eat any bugs or fake meat or any of that.
       | 
       | nihilistic platitudes like "how is there still an ecosystem?" are
       | completely baffling to me--I don't understand what would make
       | someone think that way. what could have caused this level of
       | innate shame felt on behalf of one's _species?_
       | 
       | the only thing I can think of is that people overestimate the
       | power of mankind and underestimate the power of nature possibly
       | due to living in dense urban environments surrounded by nothing
       | but artificial creations of man all day every day, and this skews
       | their perspective.
        
         | foxtacles wrote:
         | You're not the only one.
         | 
         | To anyone who's tired of reading those frequently espoused,
         | virtually now mainstream, apparently self-hatred fueled
         | viewpoints, or to those who are interested in positive outlooks
         | on humanity, I can recommend this book:
         | 
         | https://www.superabundance.com/
         | 
         | and this news aggregator:
         | 
         | https://www.humanprogress.org/
        
         | seti0Cha wrote:
         | It's more a factor of dislocated moral feelings. If you decide
         | humans aren't special, then you can go one of two ways with the
         | moral feelings you had towards humanity: you can broaden them
         | to a larger category that you still think is special, such as
         | mammals, animals, all living things, etc, or you can narrow
         | them down to some arbitrary set that you happen to be fond of,
         | like your family, your friends, or yourself. Both are
         | problematic to those who still think humans are special.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | agalunar wrote:
         | > I don't know about you but I'm quite happy to be alive and
         | reasonably healthy
         | 
         | I think the important thing to contemplate is that this might
         | be at the expense of other people, living or yet to be born.
         | Not that we've done anything wrong - just that the
         | circumstances that make this possible for us might preclude it
         | for others.
         | 
         | > nihilistic platitudes like "how is there still an ecosystem?"
         | are completely baffling to me
         | 
         | For some people, I think, it's jarring to realize that much of
         | the world, including life for other people and creatures, is
         | very different from anything they've experienced, and that the
         | future could look very different from the present - despite it
         | having not changed much so far in their lives. And the feeling
         | of that realization might be the reason for platitudes like
         | that.
        
           | adamrezich wrote:
           | > I think the important thing to contemplate is that [being
           | happy to be alive and reasonably healthy] might be at the
           | expense of other people, living or yet to be born. Not that
           | we've done anything wrong - just that the circumstances that
           | make this possible for us might preclude it for others
           | 
           | this is called the natural order of things. nature is
           | competition. this is all self-evident. all of our ancestors
           | innately understood this. what exactly has made us forget it?
           | again, the only thing I can think of is sheer societal
           | decadence, being so far removed from nature that we only have
           | an abstract concept of it.
        
         | goldenchrome wrote:
         | I am with you my friend. I will not eat the bugs.
        
         | chinchilla2020 wrote:
         | It isn't a skewed perspective. Our civilization passed the
         | carrying capacity of the planet half a century ago. Resources
         | are being consumed at a far greater rate, despite advances in
         | technology.
         | 
         | You don't need to be depressed or nihilistic about it. You can
         | still live a great life and so can your children. The reality
         | is that we need to start reducing consumption over the long
         | term to prepare for the inevitable. Being aware is the first
         | step.
         | 
         | The wrong path is to close our eyes and assume Elon Musk is
         | going to transport us to another world, or that some
         | unrealistic hollywood technology will magically terraform the
         | planet and bring back the glaciers and mammoths.
        
       | Trumpi wrote:
       | Let me guess... the solution is to eat ze bugs.
        
         | msla wrote:
         | What's wrong with shrimp and lobster?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | gregcrv wrote:
       | In case you are wondering like me, it's only about mammals. Here
       | is the full biomass picture :
       | https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-the-biomass-of-earth-in...
        
       | HPsquared wrote:
       | That sounds impressive. How do we stack up against the fish,
       | though?
        
       | nahuel0x wrote:
       | In terms of complexity destruction we are not so dissimilar to a
       | paperclip maximizing AI gone rogue.
        
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