[HN Gopher] Apple Q4/2022
___________________________________________________________________
Apple Q4/2022
Author : ckastner
Score : 135 points
Date : 2022-10-27 20:32 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.apple.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.apple.com)
| ckastner wrote:
| Annual revenue of $394 billion, more than a billion a day.
|
| Not the first company to do it, though. Exxon did it in the 2000s
| when oil was up to $140, and I think Walmart did it, too.
| est31 wrote:
| 2% of (nominal) US GDP! If Apple were a country, it would rank
| in the top 30.
| TMWNN wrote:
| Harry Truman said in 1945 about the atomic bomb, "We thank
| God that it has come to us, instead of to our enemies". I
| feel the same way about Apple and FAANG and Silicon Valley as
| a whole (and Wall Street, and Hollywood, and SpaceX/Tesla,
| and the Ivy League), that they are in the United States.
|
| That doesn't mean I approve of everything they do. That
| doesn't mean I can't or won't decry their putting thumbs on
| scales toward a certain type of _bien-pensant_ ideology. That
| does mean that, overall, I am very, very glad that they are
| American instead of Russian, Chinese, or even British,
| French, or German.
| SoftTalker wrote:
| > I am very, very glad that they are American instead of
| Russian, Chinese, or even British, French, or German.
|
| It's not an accident.
| bobkazamakis wrote:
| they aren't any of those, they're Irish, and that's no
| accident either.
| yieldcrv wrote:
| uhhhhhhhh whaaat? this has such a limited worldview. you
| can form companies in any of those places regardless of
| your citizenship or even residency, you can start companies
| in the US regardless of your citizenship or residency, you
| can get access to the speculative fury and cheap capital on
| Wall Street without you or your company being domiciled in
| the US. All combinations are possible and you need all
| combinations to make that magic happen.
|
| Choosing to do this with a US nexus for most purposes was
| intentional and helped this outcome.
|
| For an example of this combination. Baidu is a chinese
| search engine and advertising platform.
|
| It is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, its board members
| and management are several US citizens living in the US,
| several are Chinese. Its primary operations are in China
| with several subsidiaries in other countries. The shares
| are repackaged as foreign depository receipts to trade on
| the US Nasdaq. And also trades on a Hong Kong exchange as
| of 2021.
|
| You only limit yourself with this kind of nationalism.
|
| The _chosen_ regulatory environment does affect the
| potential size of the business. Its a choice for the
| company, and the management. A low growth French or German
| company chooses to stay in France or Germany.
| FullyFunctional wrote:
| You mean AAG? :) both Facebook and Netflix have slid
| dramatically from their prior glory.
| Apocryphon wrote:
| Google is Alphabet, just call it AAA.
| girvo wrote:
| Which is what I feel like yelling when I remember how
| much power just those three companies wield over
| everyone's lives.
| jimbob45 wrote:
| There's an argument to be made for one or all of
| Microsoft, Tesla, and Google to be included in there (I'm
| not calling them Alphabet and I'm not calling Facebook
| Meta I don't care how much you pay me).
| pclmulqdq wrote:
| Facebook is a value stock now, not a high-growth exciting
| company.
| ben_w wrote:
| If only one of the company names started with the letter
| E, then we could make the meta-joke of META standing for
| Meta, E*, Tesla, Alphabet.
| flyaway123 wrote:
| E Corp
| warkdarrior wrote:
| The current nomenclature is Microsoft-Apple-Google-Amazon
| (MAGA).
| cercatrova wrote:
| I guess they really are making America great again /s
| RC_ITR wrote:
| Sure, but Apple books revenue gross and a lot of it is from
| components they buy from other people in other countries,
| which would be excluded from a GDP calculation.
|
| An extreme similar example of this is Mckesson [0], which
| does $260bn of revenue a year (mostly buying pills from
| pharma companies and re-selling them to pharmacies) but only
| $11bn of gross profit, since they spend $250bn/year just
| buying those pills.
|
| [0]https://www.mckesson.com/About-McKesson/Newsroom/Press-
| Relea...
| spaceman_2020 wrote:
| Their numbers seem utterly unreal to me. How on earth do you
| sell $205 billion worth of just a single product (iPhone) every
| year?
|
| This is simply the greatest business to have ever been created.
| I can't imagine anything else ever topping it. The margins AND
| the volume are both insane.
| matwood wrote:
| Toyota volume with Ferrari margins. The iPhone will go down
| as one of the single greatest products ever.
| duped wrote:
| Almost every adult in the developed world needs a smart
| phone. They replace these devices about every 2-3 years.
|
| Apple makes one of the best in class of these devices, and
| has successfully designed one such that it's hard to switch
| to a competitor (rather it's easier to stay in the
| ecosystem).
|
| They've convinced about a billion people on the planet that
| the iPhone is the best device for them, so if you split that
| into about 300 million re-ups into the ecosystem each year
| you're talking about where their revenue is.
|
| I say this as a happy iOS user. I replaced my phone of three
| years about a month ago. Took a day to get it through my
| carrier and it immediately restored from backup with minimal
| data loss, despite not having access to the old device. That
| ease of use and confidence I won't lose data is worth the
| premium.
| tshaddox wrote:
| > Apple makes one of the best in class of these devices,
| and has successfully designed one such that it's hard to
| switch to a competitor (rather it's easier to stay in the
| ecosystem).
|
| I wonder how many years it will take before I can convince
| some people that I actually just prefer Apple's phones to
| competing phones and that I'm not actually brainwashed or
| forced by Apple to never leave. _But that 's exactly what a
| brainwashed person would say..._
| tcmart14 wrote:
| I switched to my first iPhone last year and for me the
| determining factor was not feeling I had to constantly be
| on the upgrade path. I've has my iPhone SE (2020) and
| haven't been happier with a phone. A taken care of iPhone
| can theoretically last 7-8 years since that is how long
| an iPhone generally gets OS and security updates. Android
| is getting better on flagship phones, but still not as
| good. By some none flagship android and your lucky to get
| 1 year of OS and security updates. My last android was a
| pixel and so was the one before that and every time I
| felt like after year 1 with an android, there is a
| massive performance drop off. I feel like my iPhone SE
| (2020) runs just as well today as the day it came out of
| the box.
|
| Apple does do some things really well. Android could, and
| I really want to see them do it, but as of right now,
| there are some things Android does not do well.
|
| Addition: And I think one thing that really hurt the
| Android ecosystem is when Android phones went through
| that phase of every phone flagship phone had some sort of
| gimmick. Where as Apple really just buttoned down and
| developed a really solid phone. A lot of android phone
| makers were just focusing on gimmicks like styluses or
| niche features to set them apart from other Android
| instead of just really developing a good solid smart
| phone.
| matwood wrote:
| Yeah. I went from iPhones to nexus phones for a couple
| gens. I went back to iPhones because I liked them better.
| At this point, it's whatever someone prefers.
| SxC97 wrote:
| I've been trying to convince people that I just prefer
| Apple products and am not brainwashed since _at least_
| the early 2000's... best of luck!
| mcphage wrote:
| > They replace these devices about every 2-3 years.
|
| Some people do, but definitely not "almost every adult in
| the developed world".
| crazygringo wrote:
| Statistically yes, the average is between 2 and 3 years,
| you can look up the stats from multiple sources.
|
| Obviously parent meant an average, not that almost nobody
| goes for 1 year and almost nobody goes for 4.
|
| And heck even if you mean to keep it for longer, they're
| small semi-fragile things that are uncommonly easy to
| lose and break.
| tyre wrote:
| I used to and now have a phone that's 4 years old. I
| don't plan on upgrading any time soon. There is nothing
| compelling about the newer models. "Better camera" pushed
| a lot of upgrades for a while, but my camera is good
| enough.
| readthenotes1 wrote:
| I mean, right? Who waits 2 years?
| stereoradonc wrote:
| Happy Samsung Galaxy owner here. Migration from my last
| Note to current S21 Ultra was completed in less than half
| an hour, including "settings", contacts, data etc. I had to
| log in to Fastmail and Telegram with a seamless sync. Using
| BitWarden to manage passwords. That is worth the premium
| too! Dropbox syncs my files (and back ups) seamlessly. No
| sweat. iCloud is pathetic in terms of features (no delta
| sync) and generally limited storage space.
| endisneigh wrote:
| lol. The average iPhone user isn't wasting their time
| managing fast mail, telegram and bitwarden. The whole
| value is that it's seamless, across devices and Macs
| smoldesu wrote:
| iPhones make money, but services make more. The App Store
| _alone_ made over 80 billion dollars in estimated revenue
| last year, just by existing. That 's without accounting for
| Apple One, Apple Fitness, Apple Arcade, AppleTV Plus, or
| iCloud. Apple simply makes $80 billion annually for writing
| a payment processor everyone else has to use.
|
| Services are one thing, but playing both the gatekeeper and
| competitor to a number of corporations is not a sustainable
| business model. Apple needs to double-down on their
| hardware dominance and leave the software distribution to
| software writers. All their other services can stay, Apple
| users can drown in AppleTV+ shows for all I care. The App
| Store is a fundamental de-facto monopoly on software
| distribution and (as we've seen with Spotify) service
| development. That quite literally _cannot_ be the status
| quo going forward.
| prepend wrote:
| > The App Store is a fundamental de-facto monopoly on
| software distribution and (as we've seen with Spotify)
| service development.
|
| This would be true if Android didn't exist. But it does,
| so apple isn't.
|
| What would be funny is if Google stops developing
| android, since it's lot lucrative, so they can sue under
| antitrust to improve their ad business that apple keeps
| hampering.
| kjreact wrote:
| I think the App Store model is probably still currently
| the best model for the average user who doesn't know how
| to secure a computing device. I know we may be heading
| towards a future where we're totally locked down, but
| what alternative do we have?
|
| I'm always hesitant to install software on my desktop
| because I never know if there's a trojan hidden in the
| software. I'm a relatively technical user, but I have no
| idea how I would determine if the software was safe. So
| at the moment I'm content to let Apple handle it. Note,
| this is coming from a pro-Apple user.
|
| Conversely, it would be interesting if an independent
| pro-privacy company (such as DuckDuckGo?) were to make a
| configurable smartphone for the more technical crowd that
| was both secure and allowed side-loading. I'd like to see
| such a product offered as an alternative to the offerings
| from the big tech companies.
| [deleted]
| beanjuiceII wrote:
| When I get my new pixel, I just login and everything is
| there, I assume apple is same way? this seems common these
| days
| girvo wrote:
| It is, but it didn't used to be. Way back at the dawn of
| the smartphone era I was working in consumer telco here
| in Aus, and half of my day was spent making sure people
| kept their data between phones. Even going from one
| android phone to another wasn't a great guarantee, and
| for iPhones we used to have a computer to take a backup
| via the 30-pin.
|
| These days cloud backups and the like make it pretty
| simple on both operating systems.
| prepend wrote:
| I've had an iPhone since the original 4G. It's always
| been an easy transfer.
|
| I have voice memos that have migrated since that very
| first one.
| fazfq wrote:
| The other day I thought of that... I was wondering if
| there would be people walking around with an iPhone 14
| with photos taken with the camera of an iPhone 1st gen
| which they transferred every time they upgraded.
| reaperducer wrote:
| Me. Unfortunately, back then the photos didn't have much
| metadata, mostly just time and date. No geolocation.
|
| Since i like to search for photos on the map on the macOS
| Photos program, this can be problematic. So when i was
| looking for a specific photo the other day, i had to
| scroll back by date to find it and that's how i found out
| it was taken on an original iPhone.
| girvo wrote:
| Not the 1st gen, but my 3G, I absolutely do :) its fun
| scrolling all the way back
| girvo wrote:
| For you and I, definitely. For your average consumer back
| in the late 2000s? Nah they struggled with it and lost
| data constantly despite the fact that Apple tried to make
| it easy.
| pb7 wrote:
| Because they're exceptionally good products that are beloved
| by everyone except the average Hacker News user. :-)
|
| There is an incredible bubble here that doesn't reflect the
| world.
| AB1908 wrote:
| The more interesting part to me is that this isn't even the
| majority of the smartphones sold globally. The smartphone
| industry is humongous.
| jerojero wrote:
| I would like to use iPhones, they have really good cameras
| and very good video-recording capabilities. But sadly a lot
| of the apps I use are not available in the app store.
|
| To me, this is a deal breaker. Hardware-wise the product is
| good, but I'm not just taking pictures and chatting on
| snapchat. I do a bit more with my phone. For my mom,
| however, the phone is great and does everything she expects
| it to do.
| billforsternz wrote:
| > ... I can't imagine anything else ever topping it ...
|
| In 2500 (say) this will probably seem like a very funny
| statement (because some amazing developments we can barely
| imagine will surely come along and be monetized to an extent
| we can also barely imagine).
|
| Either that or you're right which would be very bad news for
| humanity (think the great filter).
| rcpt wrote:
| I feel like oil companies are somehow hiding it. Oil is
| absolutely everywhere from transportation to shipping to
| energy to packaging to building materials. I simply can't
| believe that Apples revenue is larger than some of the
| biggest oil companies
| jesuscript wrote:
| It's hidden in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and UAE.
| civilized wrote:
| It turns out that making a great product is hard, even with
| billions of spare cash and an army of LeetCode experts, I
| mean, extremely talented engineers.
|
| Just look at that Meta VR game thingy. What's it called
| again?
| capableweb wrote:
| I don't know if the number comes anywhere near the truth, but
| if for the sake of the idea imagine that the average iPhone
| costs $750 USD then $205 billion USD worth of iPhones is
| around 273,000,000 units. That means there is about 750,000
| iPhones sold every day, or 31,250 iPhones sold every hour.
| pclmulqdq wrote:
| Which is around 8-9 iPhones per second.
| stereoradonc wrote:
| Upvoted only for your mathematical skills :-)
| acchow wrote:
| Apple designs the products it sells tho. Walmart is more like a
| curated marketplace... Can't really compare these streams of
| revenue.
| dangoor wrote:
| Apple appears to be #7 by revenue:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_r...
| umeshunni wrote:
| Funny - everyone above them in that list is either a retailer
| (so the revenue is passthrough) or a state owned monopoly.
| orky56 wrote:
| First one at their margins I imagine.
| neel8986 wrote:
| There are other companies including Walmart or Amazon having
| larger revenue. But what truly exceptional is Apple's net
| income. Trailing 1 year is almost 100B !! Only Saudi Armaco can
| touch that
| yieldcrv wrote:
| Its fascinating to watch US corporate sector catch up to
| state sponsored or partially nationalized entities. Like wow,
| what a powerhouse. Taking hundreds of years of the
| corporation concept to do it, but make a country whose
| culture is only that and its working in that regard.
| smoldesu wrote:
| Apple, Google and Microsoft are all arguably partially-
| nationalized entities. They aren't literally owned by the
| government, but our government _does_ wield it 's
| unfathomable economic power to push US-based tech companies
| to every corner of the globe. It's a sad, perverted form of
| imperialism, but I consider it partial-nationalization none
| the less.
| ethagknight wrote:
| This is a really bizarre take on what a nationalized or
| even "partially-nationalized" might mean. I could argue
| Apple is more impeded in its capabilities and growth by
| the US govt (anti trust concerns, labor relations
| concerns, tax liabilities, etc) than it is directly
| boosted. If it's just a benefit from being a US based
| corp... that's not at all nationalized?
| lotsofpulp wrote:
| Can you give an example of how the US government has made
| other countries use products from those 3 businesses?
| makeitdouble wrote:
| That's more subtle than that, and probably closer to how
| French treat their wine business for instance.
|
| An example of gov intervention: banning Huawei as it was
| rising as a global phone maker, international tarriff
| negociation (the whole stupid tarriff war happened as
| China was rising as high end device exporter), protecting
| Apple's business when challenged on anti-trust grounds
| (Apple's open stance to the judge was "we need extortion
| to make money, let us keep brinig money in"). In doubt,
| look back at these photos of Tim Cook cringing next to
| Trump because he can't just say no.
| yieldcrv wrote:
| They're partially actually owned by the Swiss central
| bank which literally creates francs just to purchase tech
| company shares with that form of funny money
|
| And yet, I don't say these companies are anything else
| than they are
|
| There are many forms of sovereign ownership and influence
| in them, who cares
| MetaverseClub wrote:
| I'm just curious how much Rev/Profit they made on selling
| employee lunches and dinners.
| microtherion wrote:
| Apple has 150k employees. Probably get <$15 revenue on average
| per employee/day, 230 days a year. So <$500M of revenue a year,
| and with the price/quality of the food, I doubt it's being run
| at a profit (It's not like they have a wine menu to boost their
| bottom line).
| happyopossum wrote:
| Most of those 150k employees are in retail, who don't eat at
| their cafeterias, and $15 is a stretch at that - I think the
| most I ever spent at a cafe Macs was about $10...
|
| All that to say, you're probably off by about 80%....
| microtherion wrote:
| I was trying to estimate as conservatively as possible.
| Good point about the retail employees!
| chollida1 wrote:
| Numbers:
|
| - Q4 wearables of $9.6B, beats est byu close to $1B
|
| - Q4 Services Rev fo $19.2B short of Est by $800M
|
| - Q4 iphone Rev of $42.6B meets Est
|
| - Q4 ipad Rev of $7.2B, short of Est by $600M
|
| - Q4 Rev of $90.2B beats Est by $2B, that also means its up 8ish%
| YoY
|
| - Q4 Mac Revenue of $11.5B, beats by $2B, nice, forgot they make
| computers;)
|
| - China Rev of $15.5B, this is interesting, AAPL clearly has alot
| of China exposure in a time when that can go away in an instant.
|
| - declared a cash div of $0.23/share
|
| Interesting:
|
| - AAPL hiking prices on Apple One, up $2, Music up $1/month, TV
| up $2,
|
| - they generated over $24B in cash
|
| - they returned $29B to investors this quarter, wow, them and
| MSFT and cash flow machines, maybe the only two tech companies
| you want to hodl right now
|
| - they have only spent $300M on acquisitions this year, that
| doesn't seem like alot.
|
| Watch for:
|
| - lots of currency exposure in this company, does the USD
| strength help or hurt them, or are they really good at hedging
| currency risk?
|
| - AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year.
| Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about
| here:)
|
| - $3 trillion in market cap has been lost in the past year among
| 7 of the biggest stocks. $GOOG $MSFT $META $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX
| $AAPL( from twitter)
|
| - from bloomberg, Maestri said Apple will likely see 10
| percentage points of currency impact in the first quarter.
|
| That is alot, and a significant headwind. That could be an entire
| paypal worth of currency drag
|
| Guidance provided by AAPL
|
| - revenue growth will decrease going into Q1
|
| - mac revenue to decline substantially
| arberx wrote:
| > AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year.
| Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about
| here:)
|
| This is the lowest cash level since 2014. Actually, concerning
| going into potentially a recession.
| modeless wrote:
| Forget the China revenue, what about the manufacturing? How
| would Apple survive at all if the US and China were cut off
| from each other?
| bergenty wrote:
| Slowly shifting the ship to India and Vietnam but it's going
| to take time.
| pavlov wrote:
| So Apple Watch and AirPods is almost as big a business as the
| Mac. Wow, I didn't realize that.
|
| Quite a vindication of Tim Cook's decade at the helm.
| nekoashide wrote:
| To the regular consumer both of those things are tied to the
| same ecosystem as the iPhone and people want to be seen in
| public with the latest gadgets. I'm not sure people feel that
| way about buying a new Mac.
| leokennis wrote:
| Don't forget Tim Cook also brought you crummy gambling ads
| next to gambling addiction recovery apps on your $1500 phone.
| jshzglr wrote:
| Although this is not ideal, it's also basically not an
| issue for me. I spend approximately 5 min a month in the
| App Store.
|
| However, I do a perceive a slight sheen on the slope.
| Petersipoi wrote:
| For the record, they have now stopped serving gambling ads.
| As well as a few other categories.
| pavlov wrote:
| Only if you open the App Store... Which I practically never
| do. The apps on my phone have been essentially the same for
| years. If I ever install something, it's probably through a
| web link or QR code that goes straight to the right app.
|
| The App Store is clearly a big wasted opportunity. 12 years
| ago I was actually eager to find new apps there. Why did
| Apple let it become a slum?
| girvo wrote:
| They let it become a slum because they make bank off it.
| See their services revenue: it's huge. Sad, but expected.
| boringg wrote:
| Wow I really never spent time thinking about it as a
| product but yeah it really was a wasted opportunity.
| Discovery is terrible and the quality of a lot of the
| apps are poor. It's obviously not an easy problem to
| solve but still I only go to the App Store to
| specifically get the app that I need.
| ghaff wrote:
| >It's obviously not an easy problem to solve
|
| It probably is at least relatively. The problem is that
| you (or at least a lot of people) wouldn't like the
| answer. Make it a very curated marketplace. Yes, that
| would take some labor but you can also take into account
| ratings etc. (Though not sure how to deal with the legit
| crappy online banking app that people give low-ratings
| too.)
|
| But cue the outrage over my app dropped below a 4.0
| rating and Apple kicked me out of the App Store. Or Apple
| decided I wasn't popular enough. Or any of the other ways
| in which curation produces losers that will be at least
| somewhat arbitrary at the margins.
| js2 wrote:
| You have two tabs: curated, and what's popular.
|
| Across all of the apps that I use to consume content, I
| only know one app that does this well: Criterion. Here,
| look:
|
| https://www.criterionchannel.com/browse
|
| First thing to note. You can browse w/o having to create
| an account!
|
| You know what else Criterion does? Rather, what it
| doesn't do? It doesn't cut off the end of movies at the
| credits to spam me with what it thinks I want to watch
| next. There's no "you may like this other thing" based on
| my watch history. Rather, content is grouped already
| based on attributes of the movies, not based on my watch
| history.
|
| Criterion cares about movies and about me as a movie
| watcher, and it shows.
|
| I will pay Criterion $99/year till the end of time.
|
| The only thing I'd like them to improve is their
| streaming quality a bit. The video stream is okay, but
| none of the soundtracks are anything but stereo at best,
| even for movies they also sell as Blu-ray that have
| multi-channel DTS soundtracks.
| throwaway1777 wrote:
| Basically the same reason Amazon let marketplace become a
| slum. It's an open platform and becomes a race to the
| bottom and full of junk and spam and whoever wants to pay
| for ads for their junk and spam.
| mikepurvis wrote:
| Which is wild to say, because it really _isn 't_ a very
| open platform. It's just open enough to be a cesspool
| while being policed enough to piss off developers and
| regulators.
|
| So like... worst of both worlds. Nice.
| rl3 wrote:
| > _Why did Apple let it become a slum?_
|
| They gambled and lost.
| Smoosh wrote:
| It appears that they can't stop the gambling.
| numbsafari wrote:
| > Only if you open the App Store... Which I practically
| never do.
|
| Which also says a lot about Tim Cook's tenure. They are
| facing major regulatory scrutiny due to the App Store, in
| addition to it being a major knock on their brand,
| instead of it being the asset it once was.
|
| It's a leadership problem, for sure.
| dilap wrote:
| Yeah, it's pretty incredible wasted opportunity. I think
| maybe 5ish or so years ago they did a big revamp which
| shifted the focus to obviously coordinated promos of big
| company stuff, and a more, I don't know, fluff editorial
| format, and it just become completely uninteresting as a
| discovery vector.
|
| It's _absolutely_ outrageous that they run confusing ads
| next to search results -- probably millions of people
| getting confused and having a bad outcome because of
| that. Just straight up selling out a good user-experience
| for $. Shameful.
| fasthands9 wrote:
| Other than maybe games I'm not really sure why/how the
| app store itself would be useful for discovery?
|
| I think when most people got a phone it was novel to have
| an app for different purposes - but nowadays people only
| really want apps they will use. They already have dozens
| they like so something has to be offering something
| unique.
|
| And when it comes to finding a new app (like how I
| recently picked a new app for cycling) just seems like
| youtube and reddit forums are always going to have more
| info than an official marketplace.
| leokennis wrote:
| I also remember trying out different new apps on the
| daily in 2010.
|
| If only those had costed $15 instead of $1, apps might
| not have become a race to the bottom where the only way
| to make a buck was to offer shady IAP or to release an
| uninspired boilerplate app filled to the brim with ads.
| tomxor wrote:
| > Quite a vindication of Tim Cook's decade at the helm.
|
| Agreed, if all you care about is Apple getting richer, he's
| done an outstanding job.
| grecy wrote:
| And making the best Macs of all time (and best laptops in
| the industry), and the best wireless headphones, and the
| phone with the biggest market share (one measure of best).
|
| I think Tim Cook's Apple is doing very well
| tomxor wrote:
| We have very different definitions of "best".
| bergenty wrote:
| What a company.
| tomcam wrote:
| I will admit publicly this post is so terse yet comprehensive I
| am aggressively searching your history on this site for more
| nuggets like this one.
|
| UPDATE ...and, not disappointed. World-class commentary. Not
| sure how PP flew under my radar so long.
| agumonkey wrote:
| better than a google search
| ralfd wrote:
| > Not sure how PP flew under my radar so long.
|
| Apple? People? What do you mean with PP?
| chollida1 wrote:
| appreciate that, thank you!!
| asadlionpk wrote:
| Agreed! Is there a website that does this style of commentary
| for (tech) stocks?
|
| All I see is seo spam when looking.
| actionfromafar wrote:
| Could easily be a SAAS
| ldayley wrote:
| There are a few big ones out there. For example, one of
| them made Mike Bloomberg a billionaire.
| such12 wrote:
| By "est", you mean estimates made by people who have nothing to
| do with the company, not by Apple themselves.
| chollida1 wrote:
| Somewhat, they are typically generated by the analysts whose
| job it is to follow the company.
|
| However, Those analysts typically get their numbers in large
| part by talking to the investor relations/CFO of these
| companies so the estimates are usually pretty good.
| such12 wrote:
| Apple has declined to provide guidance for some time now.
| chollida1 wrote:
| somewhat.
|
| They still provide some guidance on numbers both
| magnitude and direction, but don't release actual
| estimates.
|
| I'm confused now.
|
| You claimed to not really understand who makes these
| estimates and have no knowledge about how they are formed
| but it sounds like you do know a tiny bit about guidance?
|
| I mean you literally asked how these estimates were
| created?
| such12 wrote:
| > I'm confused now.
|
| Agreed.
|
| > You claimed to not really understand who makes these
| estimates and have no knowledge about how they are formed
| but it sounds like you do know a tiny bit about guidance?
|
| Where do you think I made this claim?
| guiambros wrote:
| The people " _who have nothing to do with the company_ " are
| the ones who buy or sell the stock, and end up dictating what
| the price action would be post earnings call.
|
| So you're technically correct, but it doesn't change the fact
| that the estimates done by analysts materially influence
| stock performance.
| such12 wrote:
| Sure - but the point is that it is an indication of their
| sentiment, rather than anything to do with the running of
| the company.
|
| I.e. it's a reflection of their position, not Apple's.
| shuckles wrote:
| In the United States, the research arm of banks are
| explicitly forbidden from working with the investment arms.
| So they are not the same people.
| marcus0x62 wrote:
| Sure, but like it or not, performance against those third-
| party estimates has a big impact on stock performance.
| such12 wrote:
| True. However this doesn't mean as much as pre-covid when
| Apple _did_ provide their own estimates.
| CamperBob2 wrote:
| You sound like someone who likes to get the details right. "A
| lot" is two words.
| chollida1 wrote:
| ha, thanks!!
| ijustwanttovote wrote:
| > chollida1
|
| can i subscribe to this newsletter
| [deleted]
| jorvi wrote:
| > or are they really good at hedging currency risk
|
| How would they be exposed on this, long-term?
|
| Euro stronger than dollar: convert prices 1-1. I saw someone do
| a calculation that EU customers overpaid ~38% (!) on Macbooks
| in 2009. Yes, that's with VAT (sales tax) removed.
|
| Dollar stronger than euro: immediately horrendously jack up the
| prices.
| rcarr wrote:
| > AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year.
| Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about
| here:)
|
| Didn't they have over a hundred billion in cash reserves a
| while back? This seems significantly low compared to what it
| used to be.
|
| Mac revenue will be down next year but whenever they release
| the M3 on the 3nm node I think they'll have another bumper
| year. Probably 2024.
|
| Also Apple Glass is coming next year. I can see uptake on that
| being a lot quicker than Apple Watch but all depends on
| pricing, especially going into a global recession. If it's over
| a $1000 it'll flop. If it's $500 it'll do well.
|
| Edit: looks like apples cash reserves peaked around 2019 at
| $107 billion dollars.
|
| https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on...
| colinmhayes wrote:
| I thought TSMC is taking 3nm to volume production starting Q4
| 22/Q1 23. Why would the 3nm mac processor be on hold until
| 2024?
| nomel wrote:
| > If it's over a $1000 it'll flop. If it's $500 it'll do
| well.
|
| I think we'll have to wait to see what the capabilities are.
| If it can replace an iPhone, $1000 would be incredible. $500
| is only double the price of AirPods Pro, so functionality
| would have to be pretty limited.
| highwaylights wrote:
| Maybe, but Apple Watch was a device you could buy on day
| one and be pretty confident in - at least in terms of what
| you were getting and that it would work for what it is.
|
| Apple Glass at $1k is not something I could buy day one
| even if I really liked the promo video. I'd need to see
| some reviews after weeks and how well the first version
| works before jumping in - I imagine a lot of people would
| feel that way - because it seems like something that could
| so easily just not quite work.
|
| (I don't mean not work in the full-of-bugs way, more like
| the it-was-a-better-idea-on-paper way).
| [deleted]
| paulpauper wrote:
| The iPhone is the greatest cash machine ever. Some people are
| probably on their 10th iPhone . Some people probably spent
| thousands of dollars on app store.
| m3kw9 wrote:
| Apple essentially makes require hardware(iPhone) most people
| needs and they leverage that to over other hardware and services
| around it. Simple and effective, not easy to do though!
| electriclove wrote:
| Did they announce anything in regards to share buybacks? They
| reduced outstanding shares by ~37% over the past 10 years.
| https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/shares-...
| insane_dreamer wrote:
| The most amazing to me is how Apple reversed its fortunes with
| the Mac. According to a quick search of Wikipedia (haven't
| checked further), Mac worldwide market share was 5.7% in 1996
| (after years of decline). It then dropped out of the top 5 for
| the _next 20 years_ -- the page doesn 't give numbers other than
| top 5, but in 2006 Toshiba was #5 with 3.8% so it was below that.
| Not only did it manage to bring its share back to 1996 levels,
| but it's now at 9%. And that's worldwide -- US market share is
| probably larger.
|
| I can't think of another company that has had such a stunning
| turnaround for a product line that was nearly headed the way of
| many other hardware vendors (some of whom made pretty good
| products, I had a NEC back in the day and it was a good machine).
| civilized wrote:
| Satya Nadella can pry my MacBook Pro from my cold, head hands.
| gopalv wrote:
| The worry is that the person prying it, rather gently, will
| be Tim Cook.
|
| The only hedge against that is the ecosystem for phone & ipad
| development is still the macbooks - so it does hurt Apple to
| take away the ability to write your own apps on a Macbook.
|
| I got a new ipad this week and it is pretty clear that 99% of
| my non-work life can be lived on it - banks, games and all
| the streaming apps. I don't have any more collections of
| DVDs, games or music.
|
| Even writing/drawing is better on a device which I can pick
| up and sit in a chair to read like a printed document, now
| that usb-c lets me plug it into my existing setup for screens
| when I do need a bigger screen.
| [deleted]
| pclmulqdq wrote:
| What can't be emphasized enough here is how much Windows
| created this. They went from 95 and XP, some of the best
| operating systems from a user's perspective, to 7 (another
| hit), to now windows 10 and 11, which turn your device into a
| slow always-connected ad platform that you don't really
| control.
|
| In other words, Windows became one of those toolbars that we
| all have to remove from our grandmothers' browsers.
|
| For me, the answer was Linux, but for a lot of people who don't
| want to use a terminal daily, MacOS is the answer.
|
| If you are a user, Windows hates you. MacOS doesn't.
| sgerenser wrote:
| Most of Apples market share growth occurred in the Vista/7
| era. Probably a bit more due to Windows 8, but overall
| Windows 10 probably had minimal effect. Most casual users and
| the press has been pretty positive on Win10.
| adamwk wrote:
| You forgot Vista, the Wii U of Windows
| abiloe wrote:
| > They went from 95 and XP, some of the best operating
| systems from a user's perspective
|
| I mean that's some rose-tinted shit if I ever heard it, 95
| especially. 98 OSR2 improved quite a bit on the situation,
| but I don't recall having a great time with 95. It was still
| a glorified DOS extender in many ways, often slow to start up
| and shutdown, PC hardware and drivers were a mess and system
| stability therefore poor. This was right at the beginning of
| the concept of "PnP" in the PC world (plug and play) and it
| was a cruel joke most of time.
|
| Windows 2000 being from the NT line was peak Windows in many
| ways. I resisted XP but it was ok for most people admittedly.
| mkipper wrote:
| I this overinflates the importance of the HN crowd a bit.
|
| Yeah, a lot of software engineering types switched to MBPs
| because the OS isn't a steaming pile of garbage and it
| reliably works with the hardware. The former can't be said
| for Windows these days and the latter is generally hit-or-
| miss with Linux.
|
| But I wouldn't be surprised if that's a rounding error when
| you're talking Macs doubling or tripling their market share.
| I'd imagine most people walking into an Apple Store in their
| local mall and buying a Mac with Apple Pay on their iPhone
| don't really know or care about the telemetry added in
| Windows 10. I still think Apple deserves the vast majority of
| the credit for the success of Mac.
| HeckaSmart wrote:
| Macs grew at 25% YoY (Apple earnings) while the PC market shrank
| by 15% YoY (IDC).
|
| Apple Silicon is doing wonders.
| endisneigh wrote:
| Apple is unbeatable, what numbers jeez. And to think, Apple's
| main competitor being practically forced into giving them money
| is what saved them.
|
| The government should take something from this and not allow for
| too much consolidation. I'm sure apple giving a few billion to a
| few hundred small companies could yield some results.
|
| I'm very curious what would happen to Google and Meta if Apple
| announced they're going to seriously pivot into ads with a
| revenue target of 100B per quarter.
| alwillis wrote:
| _Apple's main competitor being practically forced into giving
| them money is what saved them._
|
| That's a myth. Microsoft bought $150 million in non-voting
| stock. First, it didn't save them, even then, $150 million
| wasn't much money to Apple. Having Microsoft committed to
| supporting Office on the Mac for the next 5 years was a trade
| for Internet Explorer being the default browser for the Mac
| during those 5 years. That's when the best version of IE ran on
| the Mac.
|
| Of course after the 5-year period expired, Apple launched
| Safari 1.0.
|
| Second, Microsoft made a huge profit when sold the stock.
|
| What "saved" Apple was the success of the iMac in 1998 and then
| iPod.
| tootie wrote:
| They have two trump cards: vertical integration and a brand
| halo more popular than Jesus. Their engineering chops are first
| rate but they win because they do everything for quality,
| charge a massive premium for it and have users line up.
| Everyone else has to spend energy and resources making
| something that can compete on value because they don't have the
| brand. And they have to negotiate with everyone up and down
| their supply chain and put their products up against dozens of
| competitors.
| summerlight wrote:
| Apple tried to pivot into ads business several times, but they
| were simply not able to build a good infrastructure and
| organization for serving ads at the planetary scale. Apple is
| indeed one of the best engineering companies in the globe, but
| it can't be superior on everything; it's still struggling on
| building competitive online services even with the massive
| advantage of 30% app store tax + complete platform control.
| alphabetting wrote:
| Google's insistence on paying the $15B a year is odd to me. I'm
| sure they've run a bunch of experiments and they view it as
| making sense financially but I'm not sure how many people would
| settle with Bing as default search. Their #1 search term being
| "Google" is pretty telling.
| atdrummond wrote:
| I thought parent was referring to Microsoft's deal with Apple
| during the anti-trust era.
| alphabetting wrote:
| Ah, you're right. Misread that.
| graeme wrote:
| You can also view the $15 billion as a bribe to prevent apple
| from trying its hand at search. Apple already has a
| substantial search effort behind the scenes
| alphabetting wrote:
| That doesn't make sense though. If they are already working
| on it why would Google fund that. Doesn't really make sense
| as a bribe. Additionally, I don't think Google is worried
| about a search competitor. It's all about the default
| search eyeballs. Microsoft has invested an insane amount to
| Bing and after 13 years they have 3% market share.
| retskrad wrote:
| Holy moly, the Mac keeps growing like crazy. It's amusing how
| Apple wanted the iPad to disrupt the Mac but the advent of
| M-Series chips on the Mac has really nipped that ambition in the
| bud.
| electriclove wrote:
| I bought the M1 MacBook Air when it came out almost 2 years
| ago. I'm Still amazed at how quickly everything opens and how
| long the battery lasts.
| breck wrote:
| I haven't bought any M2s yet. Still so giddy about the M1
| joshstrange wrote:
| I bought the M1 Max MBP when it came out and the battery
| still shocks me. 80-90% of the time it's in a dock on my desk
| but I'll be sitting on the couch and think "Oh, I should
| probably plug in, I've been running it hard for the last hour
| or so.... oh.... 70% still, nevermind".
| simonswords82 wrote:
| I was using the MacBook Air in 2013 and was impressed with
| its reliability. Prior to that I'd been on Dell XPS laptops.
|
| The MacBook Air M1 is just another level of solidarity and
| speed and battery life.
|
| It just works.
|
| So long as Apple continues on their existing pathway I'll
| forgive them pretty much anything.
| dekhn wrote:
| I bought a pair for my kids and they have been absolutely
| wonderful school computers. I don't even carry a personal
| laptop any more, and I personally don't like Mac OS X, and I
| really don't like Apple's RAM pricing, but the hardware
| design is truly hard to beat.
| lvl102 wrote:
| They're trying to manage expectations by saying Mac sales in 4Q
| will be weaker but once they release M2 Mac Mini and M2 Mac
| Pro, they will sell like hotcakes. It doesn't hurt that
| building a PC is now quite a bit more expensive.
| samatman wrote:
| I remember when I got my first Retina laptop screen, it was
| nice but I quickly just got used to it.
|
| Then, I found myself using the earlier machine, without the
| high DPI. That learned me. It was hard to imagine all the work
| I'd done staring through a screen door at those pixels.
|
| Similarly, I've been using the M1 MPB since I got it. I only
| remember that it _never makes noise_ when I 'm reminded of it,
| such as in this conversation.
|
| At some point, I'll end up using an Intel laptop of any sort,
| and I'll hear that whirring noise. It will be jarring, I've
| grown used to laptops not making sound they way phones and
| tablets don't.
| yieldcrv wrote:
| > Similarly, I've been using the M1 MPB since I got it. I
| only remember that it never makes noise when I'm reminded of
| it, such as in this conversation.
|
| I take _a lot_ for granted about my M1 MBP.
|
| And it all becomes noticeable when using anybody else's
| computer.
|
| The screen, the speed, the battery life, the fan, the heat.
| Its all so... crippling on other people's machines.
| highwaylights wrote:
| This right here. My work requires me to jump back to a
| Windows machine occasionally (but not for a good long while),
| and while I always appreciated the silence of the ARM MacBook
| Air - it's only in firing the windows box back up that I was
| hit with just how obnoxiously loud it was.
|
| I've had to rip the dGPU out of the machine and cut the fan
| thresholds back to virtually nothing just to make the machine
| tolerable now. A lot of what Apple does is stuff you don't
| need, but it definitely spoils you.
| skybrian wrote:
| So, basically the Retina display didn't do anything except
| spoil you for tech that was okay before. That's good for the
| manufacturer, but this sort of hedonic treadmill seems like
| something to avoid?
| hmottestad wrote:
| Apple improves some things that users don't strictly need.
| Like the speakers on their laptops, I don't really need
| them to be as good as they are but it sure is enjoyable.
| SoftTalker wrote:
| It's amazing. I sometimes wonder what value these people see in
| this stuff. I guess I just "think different" as nothing that
| Apple offers is compelling to me in the slightest way. Yet one
| can't deny the reality.
| fsociety wrote:
| I have been researching for a Linux laptop to replace my M1
| for a month now - mostly to get back on x86 for projects.
|
| The non-M1 offerings are relatively terrible. You have to
| make some trade-off of battery life, thermals, display,
| keyboard, trackpad, ports, and reliability.
|
| Lots of threads with people saying "well no one needs 2K
| screens at 120Hz, just get 1080p 60Hz".. meanwhile those
| laptops cost >$2K.
|
| The Starlabs Starfighter specs were announced, they look
| tempting but slow display and no TB4 on Ryzen processors.
|
| The Dell XPS used to be a favorite of mine, but they are
| plagued with quality control issues.
|
| Lenovo thermals are bad this generation, and my experience
| getting my work Lenovo repaired was terrible. Plus I've read
| about quality control issues.
|
| I've decided to just use an x86 instance somewhere for the
| specific things, but no doubt Apple hit the magic sauce with
| the M1.
| chrisseaton wrote:
| Do you not think M1 is a compelling architecture? I think
| it's technically brilliant and it has a positive impact on my
| life.
| seabriez wrote:
| M1 saved my marriage, and before that it saved my life as
| well. My mom loves M1 more than me.
| SoftTalker wrote:
| I mean, no.
|
| For what I do with a laptop, a Chromebook is fine. And it's
| what I use.
| chrisseaton wrote:
| > For what I do with a laptop
|
| Are you possibly able to understand that other people do
| other things with their laptops and so see value in the
| technology?
|
| Like I spend my time compiling things. A fast, low-energy
| processor is brilliant for me, because it lets me work
| faster and for longer. Can you not understand how I'd see
| value in that?
| SoftTalker wrote:
| Of course. But I don't see there being enough of those
| people to drive that kind of revenue to one company.
| Apple makes money like a fashion brand because that is
| what they are. They are very innovative and very good at
| doing it. I'm not trying to detract from their success.
| Just amazed that it works and has worked for so long.
|
| But I don't own any Apple technology and can't think of a
| reason I would buy any.
|
| Yes I do work in tech as a full-stack developer and
| sysadmin.
| chrisseaton wrote:
| I don't think it's the mystery you do - they make money
| because they make the very best technology, that makes
| people who work with a wide range of workloads more
| effective, and so those people are willing to spend money
| with them.
|
| If Apple is compiling my application 1.5x as fast and
| lets me work 1.5x as long without recharging, that saves
| me genuine time in the day, either to do more work, or to
| work on my hobbies, or to take more time out. That's
| really valuable to me. That's why I buy it, and why so
| many other people buy it. The cost is pretty
| insignificant considering it's where I earn all my money
| and do 50% or so of my hobbies.
| ac29 wrote:
| > If Apple is compiling my application 1.5x as fast
|
| The M1 Max (the highest end chip available in a Mac
| laptop) is slower than competition from Intel and AMD,
| though. I'm not sure what its supposed to be 50% faster
| than, unless you are only comparing it to old Intel Macs.
| chrisseaton wrote:
| When it came out, the new MacBook Air had better single-
| core performance than every Intel Mac that ever existed.
| Not just the Airs - all of them ... on a lower power
| budget.
|
| I'm sure you can get even faster single-core by brute-
| force burning power, but Apple were trying to do
| something more intelligent by balancing with power.
|
| I think anyone seriously trying to claim they can't see
| any value in this is clearly just being silly.
| peyton wrote:
| Even Linus Torvalds uses a MacBook now. I just can't find
| nicer machines out there.
| [deleted]
| dmix wrote:
| And considering you probably use your laptop 10x more often
| than your car spending $2 grand on the best around isn't
| really much to ask. Especially if they last long which they
| tend to, especially do if you get AppleCare.
| procinct wrote:
| For me, having a really fast laptop with a battery that lasts
| over a day is pretty great value compared to other laptops on
| the market.
| pkrumins wrote:
| Isn't it Q3? Q4 just started (Oct 1 - Dec 31).
| objclxt wrote:
| Apple's financial year runs September to September.
| drcongo wrote:
| Well now I'm a bit less happy about them putting up the prices on
| services the other day.
| alwillis wrote:
| Are you okay with more money going to content creators?
|
| From https://9to5mac.com/2022/10/24/apple-music-tv-prices-
| going-u...:
|
| _Apple said the increase in Apple Music subscription price was
| due to increased licensing costs. The company said artists and
| songwriters will earn more per stream as a result of the
| pricing tier changes. Regarding Apple TV+, the company said the
| increased price reflects the growing catalog of original TV
| shows and movies:_
| trap_goes_hot wrote:
| Apple's suppliers raised prices, so they just passed it on to
| the customer. Seems to be standard practice in corp America.
| philjohn wrote:
| Well how else are they going to keep growing if they don't
| extract ever increasing rents? Realistically they've
| [1]plateau'd in market penetration for mobile phones, so their
| push into advertising, jacking up costs for established
| services is really MBA 101.
|
| [1] https://www.businessofapps.com/data/apple-statistics/
| brookst wrote:
| MBA 102 says you always maximize profits. You don't set a
| goal and then diversify when existing revenue streams
| plateau, you seek new revenue streams all the time.
|
| And I don't think iPhone has plateaued anyway. Worldwide, iOS
| market share has gone from 20% to 28% in the past five
| years[1]. Apple is working hard to accelerate that growth.
| They may or may not succeed, but it would take an MBA 101
| dropout to accept a 28% market share plateau.
|
| [1] https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-
| share/mobile/worldwide/...
| AnonMO wrote:
| And they say money doesn't grow on trees.
| foobarian wrote:
| Meta revenue YoY: -25%
|
| Apple revenue YoY: +25%
| colinmhayes wrote:
| meta revenue down 4% YoY
| seabriez wrote:
| LOL, yep
| nsenifty wrote:
| Meta revenue YoY is -4%.
|
| https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/...
| [deleted]
| paxys wrote:
| Seems like Apple is the only tech giant who will come out of the
| earnings season (relatively) unscathed. MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN -
| not so much.
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