[HN Gopher] A Meta Analysis on Meta ___________________________________________________________________ A Meta Analysis on Meta Author : alibova Score : 37 points Date : 2022-10-31 20:13 UTC (2 hours ago) (HTM) web link (depression2022.substack.com) (TXT) w3m dump (depression2022.substack.com) | mkl95 wrote: | > Meta needs to generate $200B+ of profits on metaverse during | 2030-2039 to make it worth it | | Is it too late for Meta to admit the Metaverse has been a mistake | and shift their efforts to something else? And what would that | something else be? | csdvrx wrote: | I don't think it's a mistake. They are just too early. | | Look at how Microsoft correctly identified tablet and | smartphone as part of the future, as early as 20 years ago when | they had special Windows XP tablet and custom Windows CE | environment. | | People often talk about the first mover advantage, but it can | also be a curse: that's why Google ate Microsoft lunch, and why | Facebook ate Myspace lunch, and why Microsoft ate IBM lunch | etc. | | If Microsoft hadn't thrown the tower with Windows Phones, the | present could have been very different! | | Now they are playing catchup, and I think that's what FB (now | Meta) wants to avoid. | | Some companies manage to pivot (ex: Netflix did) but most | can't: for example, Palm who couldn't leave PalmOS behind. | Nokia also fumbled, even with the help of Microsoft, because | they couldn't bear sacrificing their Symbian cash cow. | | Same for Microsoft actually: Windows 8 was too little too late, | and the switch from CE to Windows Mobile 6 then 7 then 10 did | spread too thin the developer attention: having to use a | different language + UI each time required too much effort for | too little gains. | | Windows 10 managed to correct the course, and Windows 11 is | surprisingly good, but it may be too late and playing catchup | with Android is not a nice position. | tptacek wrote: | Just like a baseball bat swinging at a pitch, too early is | just as much a mistake as too late. Microsoft is indeed a | good reference point here. | andsoitis wrote: | Windows CE released in 1996. | | Apple Newton (hardware & OS) released in 1993 and | discontinued in 1998. | | Palm Pilot introduced in 1997. | colinmhayes wrote: | I'm not sure it was a mistake though. You have to ask yourself | what marks goals are here. To me, being cash flow positive is | pretty far down the list. Meta could have results like the one | last week for a decade and mark would still be a billionaire. | He'd still be the ceo of his company. Pleasing Wall Street is | not a priority for him. To me the main goals here are first | creating a hardware platform meta controls in order to ensure | his company can't be destroyed by other companies taxing him | like apple did, and second I do think that mark is legitimately | committed to connecting people whatever that means to him. | Reality labs still seems like a good way to accomplish these | goals even if it isn't financially worth it. | andsoitis wrote: | As a publicly traded company, there's a fiduciary | responsibility to shareholders. | colinmhayes wrote: | Which is why mark leaves the credible deniability of saying | he believes reality labs is an investment that will pay off | for shareholders. My reading of corporate fiduciary | responsibility cases is that believing your actions are in | the shareholders best interest is all that is required and | proving that mark doesn't seems impossible. | tptacek wrote: | This isn't an especially useful frame. Lots of things make | sense if you put yourself in Zuckerberg's shoes and assume he | minmaxes for whatever random thing has captured his | attention. | | The real question is, what should Meta shareholders do in | response to this stuff? What would happened with respect to | the shareholders if Zuckerberg took his foot off the gas | pedal with the "Metaverse" stuff? | colinmhayes wrote: | I mean they only really have two choices. Stick with meta | and hope mark gets distracted from the reality labs stuff | or sell. Most seem to have chosen to sell. | tptacek wrote: | Right. Over the coming years, the number of people who | choose to sell, buy, or hold will determine the outcome | of the Metaverse experiment. So that's the right frame | here, not whether Zuckerberg can continue pursuing it --- | if only because the Zuckerberg question is much less | interesting to think about. | TigeriusKirk wrote: | It's an incredibly useful frame if the question is "Should | Meta admit the metaverse is a mistake?" | Bubble_Pop_22 wrote: | > The real question is, what should Meta shareholders do in | response to this stuff? What would happened with respect to | the shareholders if Zuckerberg took his foot off the gas | pedal with the "Metaverse" stuff? | | Meta shareholders signed up for the double class share | agreement which enables Zuck to do whatever he wants. | | And besides it's is kind of right, given the past execution | ever since 2004 he kinda earned the right to bet the | company on something new. Billions of people use the | different flavors of Meta , and they do sohundreds if not | thoudands of times per day. Nobody else can claim to having | provided quality of life to so many people. | tptacek wrote: | They gave up one means they had to influence Meta's | behavior: they can't vote him out. But shareholders | almost never vote anybody out regardless of how the share | class structure is set up. So the real question is: will | they continue to hold Meta's stock? | mathattack wrote: | It's not too late. The money they spent is a sunk cost. If all | they did was say, "We are going to milk advertising and give | our cash to shareholders" they would do just fine. | | Or they could focus on creating the next social network. | | But... Maybe just maybe they pull this off. I just have a great | idea on Mark's product intuition, since so much of Meta's | growth has been data analysis driven. | moolcool wrote: | > But... Maybe just maybe they pull this off | | It would be bad if they pull it off. I dread the day | draconian call center employers make their workers put on | headsets and track their eye movements for 8 hours a day, all | while charging them for a virtual cubicle with a view. Look | at the marketing materials for their latest headset, that's | the way it's going. | Rebelgecko wrote: | Granted in more bullish on VR than most, but I'm skeptical | of the scenario you're dreading- outside of the world | "virtual" I think that entire situation is possible today, | but it hasn't happened yet. Call center employees are | already required to wear headsets, and if you're sitting in | front of a laptop there's nothing technical preventing your | employer from implementing an eye-tracking computer vision | powered panopticon. | kypro wrote: | I'll provide an opinion I think is likely untrue, but interesting | to consider here. I think there is a small but possible chance | that these moves from Zuck coupled with the rebrand are likely | attempts to intentionally scare of investors and drop the stock | price. | | In my opinion Zuck has been acting weird since the Apple's | privacy change announcement. I'm not a long-term shareholder of | META/FB, but I have followed the companies IR material for some | time and I've never seen Zuck act like this before. On the last | few earnings calls it's hard at times not to wonder if he's | trying to make investors nervous... | | For example, telling investors that they didn't see the Tiktok | threat coming. Or that Apple's privacy change is a serious threat | to their business. Or just recently that he "thinks" (very | unconvincingly) that their huge Metaverse investments will pay | off. | | One of the main problems Meta has today is that despite their | relatively weak moat compared to other big tech companies that | they're treated with far more scrutiny from regulators. And on | the flip side you have for dominant companies like Apple which | are literally destroying the ad business model that many tech | companies rely on while demanding a 30% tax from developers and | attracting relatively little regulatory attention. | | One of the things that has made Meta such a strong player | historically has been their ability to make very smart | accusations, but this is no longer possible because regulators | see them as such a dominant player. In some ways Meta was | actually strategically stronger as a smaller player. | | So perhaps this is just part of the strategy. Historically if you | want Western governments to give you a bit of a hand then being | out competed by companies in hostile countries isn't a bad move. | Similarly if you want to stop companies like Apple from targeting | you then making it look like they're doing an unreasonable amount | of damage to your business, probably isn't a bad move either. | | And Zuck is an interesting position given the share structure of | the company. Where other companies would have to bend to | investors, Zuck can force down the stock price and ignore | investor demands. Again, I'm not saying I think he is doing this, | but it's an explanation I'm beginning to weight heavier. | peppertree wrote: | Meta also let Facebook rot. Didn't come up with anything | competitive against TikTok. Couldn't monetize Whatsapp and turn | it into a superapp like WeChat. There are just failures on every | front. | echelon wrote: | > First, I would not have let the Apple relationship slide so far | down. | | I don't like Meta, but this is an unfair assessment. Meta saw | Google's deal and likely tried to pay these fees. They've been | trying desperately for years - they knew this was possible and | saw the writing on the well. | | They tried launching their own phone product and learned | firsthand how difficult to impossible it was to compete in that | space. And unlike with Microsoft, this was an existential issue | for Meta. That's largely what Metaverse itself is. | | Apple has 100% of the leverage and is building their own ad | product, so they likely turned Meta down with zero recourse. | | _Apple has too much power._ | | With one flip of a switch, Apple wiped out hundreds of billions | of dollars. The entire business of a company. This is monopoly. | | Apple captured half of American computing and taxes everything | that can possibly be done. Subscriptions, social networking, | dating, movies, you name it. | | At no point in American history has a company had this much | power. | | Meta is trying to build the next platform so that they can be the | ones to control it. These sorts of total platform monopolization | plays are bad for technology, smaller businesses (even 10B market | cap ones), and innovation. The DOJ needs to step in and do its | job. | lotsofpulp wrote: | > With one flip of a switch, Apple wiped out hundreds of | billions of dollars. The entire business of a company. This is | monopoly. | | This is a ridiculous way to characterize a business presenting | its customers an option to not be tracked by other businesses. | nwienert wrote: | > With one flip of a switch, Apple wiped out hundreds of | billions of dollars. The entire business of a company. This is | monopoly. | | You can easily re-frame this as: with the flip of a switch | Apple single handedly stopped anti-consumer practices by some | of the most manipulative and nefarious companies in the world, | like Facebook. | | Companies don't have some inherent right to exist. Facebook | turned off their game integrations and killed thousands of | companies overnight. And that doesn't make either a monopoly. | None of your statements add up to the other. | | > At no point in American history has a company had this much | power. | | This is funny. Google has more power by a large margin | (influencing opinion, killing off entire industries on a nearly | yearly basis), and has engaged in much more nefarious anti- | competitive behavior. | runevault wrote: | It is good Apple (and Google since last I heard they put | similar functionality in place or would be soon) are doing | this. That doesn't remove the concern that one or two | companies deciding to do something can be so damaging to | another megacorp who isn't competing in the same space | really. Both can be true, speaking as someone who doesn't | care for FB or Apple (or Google really either but to have a | smartphone you basically have to pick one of the two). | nvarsj wrote: | It's bizarre to me that Apple has had no antitrust allegations | yet. The way they manage iOS and the App Store is like a much | worse version of Microsoft in the 90s. | sp332 wrote: | https://appleinsider.com/articles/20/08/15/apples- | antitrust-... Those are up to 2020. Last year there was a | spotify complaint, and this year the DOJ said they're looking | into the 30% cut the app store takes. | Guthur wrote: | I think the idea was ok but the execution was terrible. | | VR was too extreme and narrow a view. The meta verse should have | been the extending the space where people and technology over | lap, not trying to force everyone to move into frankly terrible | VR. | | Meta should have went all in on wearable and other augmented | reality stuff, hook that into people's Facebook etc. | | Imo, HN is probably the only social media I actually use. | Sparingly as I'm more certain that much online discourse is pure | fabrication. | cma wrote: | > Meta should have went all in on wearable and other augmented | reality stuff, hook that into people's Facebook etc. | | Their new headset does grainy color AR passthrough and lots of | the reports on how much they wasted on VR were actually on | products like Portal and bringing AR filters onto their | snapchat/tik tok clone attempts, they were in the same category | on the earnings report without being broken out. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2022-10-31 23:00 UTC)