[HN Gopher] France prepares for possibility of electricity black...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       France prepares for possibility of electricity blackouts during
       winter months
        
       Author : geox
       Score  : 78 points
       Date   : 2022-12-03 19:58 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.rfi.fr)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.rfi.fr)
        
       | cm2187 wrote:
       | I don't understand the advice of switching off appliances and
       | lights at night. Surely if France has an energy production
       | shortfall, it must be at peak period which is during the day from
       | 9am until about 7pm [1], not in the middle of the night.
       | Particularly given the vast majority of its production costs the
       | same whether you use it or not (nuclear, wind). And even for gas,
       | the problem isn't the quantity of gas available, it is the output
       | of the gas power plants available. So saving gas during the night
       | doesn't help peak production.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/la-production-
       | delectricit...
        
         | hinata08 wrote:
         | On top of the peak production issue, there is also a fuel
         | reserve issue
         | 
         | As half of the the nuclear power plants are down, they have to
         | rely on gas. And gas has become difficult to import.
         | 
         | France feels both the liberalisation of the electricity
         | production : Private operators promised to produce cheaper and
         | cleaner power back in the 2000s. But they didn't. Virtually all
         | of them used a scheme (the Arenh system) to get public
         | electricity in bulk, sold to them at a loss and at a fixed
         | price, so that they could compete with the public company on
         | retail prices. Then the government was still in their
         | privatization bubble, lobbies told them everything was fine,
         | and they began to stop to maintain and to phase out public
         | nuclear power plants.
         | 
         | And now we no longer have electricity.
         | 
         | The backup would be electricity made with natural gas. But you
         | need to save that natural gas now. Russia froze the export of
         | natural gas. And other companies know that gas is in short
         | supply, so prices skyrocket.
         | 
         | So yeah, we have to turn everything off at night.
        
           | Normille wrote:
           | >Russia froze the export of natural gas...
           | 
           | France [and the rest of the EU] announced they were going to
           | stop buying Russian oil and gas, blocked Russia's access to
           | the world banking system so Russia couldn't receive payment
           | for their gas in $$$ or EUREUREUR, then refused to pay for it
           | in Roubles instead. Consequently, Russia froze the export of
           | natural gas... because they weren't going to give it away for
           | free.
           | 
           | 'FTFY'... as the kids say.
           | 
           | Amazing how the narrative has changed to "Russia froze gas
           | exports". You'd maybe expect the historical timeline to get a
           | bit vague after a few decades. But we're talking events which
           | occurred only this year. We can all remember what actually
           | happened and in what order. Why are so many people, --who
           | must remember as well as I do, the actual sequence of
           | events-- willing to go along with this doublethink version of
           | history, just because Russia are the 'bad guys' in this
           | conflict?
        
             | hinata08 wrote:
             | Whatever, there is no Russian gas anymore
             | 
             | I disagree with your russian narrative (payments for gas
             | would have been processed despite the swift ban). But the
             | objective part of this story is that EU has no gas anymore.
             | And debates about Russia won't fuel power plants
        
             | gattilorenz wrote:
             | > France [and the rest of the EU] announced they were going
             | to stop buying Russian oil and gas, blocked Russia's access
             | to the world banking system so Russia couldn't receive
             | payment for their gas in $$$ or EUREUREUR, then refused to
             | pay for it in Roubles instead.
             | 
             | As far as I remember, it was still possible (in terms of
             | banking systems/santions) to pay the gas in Euros as usual;
             | Russia decided, unilaterally, that they would require the
             | payment to be in Rubles (to try and limit its plummeting
             | value). For ther rest, you're correct.
        
               | alwayseasy wrote:
               | Your recollection is correct. He is falling for the same
               | thing he accused op of.
        
               | f6v wrote:
               | Why would Russia want to be payed in EUR when their
               | foreign assets were frozen? Russia relied on foreign
               | financial infrastructure which has proven to be
               | unreliable for them.
        
               | analognoise wrote:
               | It's a funny twist of logic to say the Russians found the
               | foreign financial infrastructure to be unreliable for
               | them... When they were booted out for attacking a
               | neighboring country, isn't it?
               | 
               | It's so unreliable! All they have to avoid is invading
               | their neighbors, but they couldn't manage that. Russia is
               | the unreliable party.
        
           | cm2187 wrote:
           | I am sure France isn't contemplating blackouts to save on the
           | gas supply.
        
             | hinata08 wrote:
             | No
             | 
             | i'm just saying there are 2 issues nowadays :
             | 
             | peak production issue
             | 
             | and how to keep producing electricity in the next year, as
             | gas is difficult to source, and the tank might eventually
             | run out.
             | 
             | The government is just making a single campaign to simplify
             | the PR ! In the same ads, they ask citizens to both reduce
             | energy consumption (eg lower heating to 18degC), and to
             | delay intensive usage out of peak hours (eg use you washing
             | machine or the space heater during the day and not in the
             | evening)
        
         | Loic wrote:
         | In France, a lot of heating is done during the night (Water,
         | buildings with so cold "accumulator electrical heating").
         | 
         | You also need to think that France is not alone. If they can
         | save during the night, this is extra power which can be
         | exported to Germany where the base production relies on coal
         | and gas. This way, Germany uses less gas during the night and
         | can export more during the day to help France.
         | 
         | We are fully interconnected, we need to look beyond "just our
         | country".
        
           | cm2187 wrote:
           | But that assumes the blackouts are the result of gas power
           | plants not running at full capacity at peak period because of
           | a lack of gas. I don't believe that is the case, at least not
           | this winter.
        
             | hinata08 wrote:
             | they run at full capacity, but the capacity of natural gas
             | power plant is very limited
             | 
             | Nuclear power plants used to make up for the steady base
             | consumption. Natural gas power plants used to be the last
             | ones to be solicited. They were just used to adjust to the
             | marginal needs, not to produce most of the power.
        
       | masklinn wrote:
       | FWIW https://energygraph.info/d/cM9gMNZ4k/availability-
       | timeline?o... has a timeline of the various french reactors, and
       | shows that some (tricastin 3, 4, cruas 3, budget 4, belleville 2)
       | were restarted during november.
       | 
       | I assume the part of the bars which is after the green ("update")
       | dashed line is previsional.
       | 
       | It shows that more reactors should be restarting in the next few
       | days although several (most notably all 4 N4 still) will remain
       | offline over winter. And Cattenom 1 and 3 are apparently not
       | planned to restart before late feb / early march.
       | 
       | There's also an overview dashboard which is just... sad:
       | https://energygraph.info/d/q7IpAJHVz/overview?orgId=1&refres...
        
       | daVe23hu wrote:
        
         | oezi wrote:
        
           | lizardactivist wrote:
           | You cannot be serious. Why would Russia blow up their own
           | pipeline instead of just saying "no"?
           | 
           | Did you even listen to the US in the weeks leading up to the
           | invasion of Ukraine? They were agitating more about Nord
           | Stream and their own Energy Dominance agenda than actually
           | talking about Ukraine, and to top it off Biden literally said
           | right in front of the cameras that we want to stop the EU
           | from buying Russian gas, and in fact we have a way of doing
           | that.
        
             | oezi wrote:
             | Because it is part of Russia's strategy to drive European
             | energy prices higher and by forcing a hard winter to bully
             | their way to negotiations in Ukraine.
             | 
             | Europe already made it clear it won't go back to Russian
             | energy so the pipelines aren't needed anymore. This also
             | explains why nobody started with any repairs.
             | 
             | For your insinuation that the US did it, there doesn't seem
             | to be any evidence or motive. And if anybody wanted to
             | really disrupt any Gas flow they would have needed to blow
             | up all 4 pipes. Yet only 3 were destroyed.
             | 
             | Also it would have been much too dangerous for any NATO
             | member to engage with a military action against Russian
             | property.
             | 
             | It is most likely that Russia had already installed bombs
             | during construction and just had to pull a trigger.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | kazen44 wrote:
             | > You cannot be serious. Why would Russia blow up their own
             | pipeline instead of just saying "no"?
             | 
             | because it denies the non hardline faction inside the
             | russian political sphere the option of negotiating with the
             | west. This further solidifies putin's position.
             | 
             | Blowing up the pipeline made sure the war in ukraine had to
             | continue, because stoppping the war will not result in the
             | resumption of gas trade with the west.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | Only 5% of french electricity comes from gas and of these 5%
         | only 20% come from Russia
        
       | brainchild-adam wrote:
       | France is not alone in this. In a way it seems Europe in general
       | is headed for a challenging winter when it comes to energy
       | supply.
       | 
       | I wonder where this will lead.
       | 
       | I assume that once larger parts of the population start feeling
       | the effects of these energy shortages, some dynamics might
       | change.
       | 
       | At the moment, most do not seem to take much notice or care, not
       | that I blame them. Life can be stressful enough as it is.
        
         | kazen44 wrote:
         | at the same time, gas supplies are at an all time high.
         | 
         | The main issue seems to be absolutely atrocious timing of
         | nuclear reactor maintenance. (which is just bad luck).
         | 
         | > I assume that once larger parts of the population start
         | feeling the effects of these energy shortages, some dynamics
         | might change.
         | 
         | I sure as hell hope that the dynamic will increase in providing
         | ukraine with the weapons required to end of the war far more
         | quickly. From a geopolitical standpoint, making sure russia
         | does not win this war or end it in a stalemate is absolutely
         | vital for European stability.
         | 
         | Also, it could lead to further defence integration in europe.
         | (this has already been fast tracked once the war started).
        
           | lzooz wrote:
           | In what way will Ukraine winning (whatever that means) help
           | us in terms of energy?
        
             | iudqnolq wrote:
             | Russia is already going broke. They could be forced to
             | resume gas sales by financial need.
        
       | Raed667 wrote:
       | And yet we allow extravagant malls all over France to light and
       | heat 24/7 with open doors and no accountability. All streets are
       | filled with large high-definition ad screens & computers that
       | cool and heat all day long. Restaurants and bars can just heat
       | the outside terrace air, etc...
       | 
       | And the liberal take has been: This is fine as long as they're
       | paying their bills.
        
         | 323 wrote:
         | If malls waste it like that it means that the electricity is
         | too cheap and still plenty.
         | 
         | I bet that a lot of it it's subsidized in good old French
         | tradition.
        
         | f6v wrote:
         | Same in Denmark. A shitload of storefronts lit up at night.
        
         | WastingMyTime89 wrote:
         | I have no idea of what you are talking about.
         | 
         | Blackouts are a solution to consumption surges. We are not
         | seeing surges right now so there is no reason to restrict
         | anyone. We can't store electricity after all. In case of a
         | surge, the commercial sector is the first being hit, long
         | before houses. Plus the issue is mostly heating, lights consume
         | next to nothing.
         | 
         | France electricity is mostly clean by the way.
         | 
         | > Restaurants and bars can just heat the outside terrace air.
         | etc...
         | 
         | That's been illegal for more than a year.
        
           | zelphirkalt wrote:
           | France's energy production is not as clean as one may think.
           | There is considerable damage to the environment in countries
           | in Africa, where Uranium is mined/extracted. Probably still
           | better than lots of CO2 output, but not actually clean.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | Any source at all?
             | 
             | (Good luck finding one that supports your position).
             | 
             | FWIW: yes, mining is bad. But uranium is unbelievably
             | energy-dense and the amounts are ridiculously small
             | compared to any other source of energy. All things
             | considered, nuclear causes fewer emissions per MWh than
             | most solar panels (which are not radioactive but still need
             | heaps of metals and semiconductors). Also, there is no
             | contest with coal, oil, and gas, which is the thing that is
             | actually used when you don't have nuclear energy available.
        
             | yodsanklai wrote:
             | No energy production is clean. Actually, I'd be curious to
             | compare the damage to the environment caused by uranium
             | extraction vs producing batteries and solar panels.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | Nuclear and solar panels are about the same. Better than
               | wind and hydro. But all of these are very similar, and
               | are miles better than fossil fuels. It's difficult to
               | have accurate projections for batteries because the
               | technology that can be used at these scales is not clear
               | (though he vast majority of them need cobalt, which is a
               | huge issue on several levels).
        
               | guggle wrote:
               | Indeed, there is no clean energy, it's all relative. I'd
               | like more people to realize this.
        
             | pitaj wrote:
             | > There is considerable damage to the environment in
             | countries in Africa, where Uranium is mined/extracted.
             | 
             | That's equally of not more true of renewables like solar
             | and batteries that require large amounts of rare metals.
        
               | zelphirkalt wrote:
               | Doesn't change the fact, that it is not actually clean,
               | does it?
        
             | loeg wrote:
             | Most uranium comes from Kazakhstan. Australia and Canada
             | are also major producers. Namibia produces some, but far
             | from the majority. This isn't exactly a "western countries
             | dumping environmental problems in Africa" story.
        
               | zelphirkalt wrote:
               | So is the Uranium extraction story better in those
               | countries? I think that would then be the next question.
        
               | tomatotomato37 wrote:
               | In Australia at least most of it comes from a copper mine
               | that happens to intersect a uranium vein, so as long as
               | the demand for copper exists its extraction is
               | essentially environmentally free
        
               | loeg wrote:
               | I don't think it's particularly bad per GWh of energy
               | produced. You just don't need that much uranium. Compare
               | coal (still being actively mined and burned for energy!),
               | natural gas, exotics for batteries/solar.
        
           | Raed667 wrote:
           | > the commercial sector is the first being it
           | 
           | That's not what they announced, the day before an area code
           | will be revealed, and all electricity will be cut (including
           | schools, public utility and telephone towers)
           | 
           | > That's been illegal for more than a year
           | 
           | There is an exception if terrace area is "covered". Guess
           | what everyone installed in the past year?
        
             | WastingMyTime89 wrote:
             | What they announced is in addition to what's always done.
             | The commercial sector has always been the first to be cut.
             | Some companies actually have special contracts which mean
             | they can be cut with barely any notice.
             | 
             | If they do large scale blackouts it's that they can't
             | manage the load without cutting normal customers so
             | obviously it's going to hit everyone.
        
         | zelphirkalt wrote:
         | Same stuff in Germany. We ask households to save energy, but at
         | the same time store windows and malls and whatnot are lit up
         | all night long. Maybe it needs a separate higher energy price
         | for businesses to change that behavior.
        
           | oezi wrote:
           | I can talk only about Berlin but many furniture stores have
           | started to switch all lights off at night. Even the Ikea sign
           | isn't lit anymore.
        
             | zelphirkalt wrote:
             | I guess the take on that is, that there is no good
             | regulation for it. If it can be one way in one city, for
             | some of the shops, and different for other cities or other
             | shops, then the measures/policies are not really reaching
             | the target. Apparently one cannot rely on people doing the
             | right thing, especially not, when they are in some kind of
             | loosely associated group like a business, where no one
             | feels responsible at the end. It might be a topic which
             | needs intervention by the state to get the desired effect.
        
           | bushbaba wrote:
           | In the US industrial & large electric consumers often pay a
           | cheaper $/Kwh price. But they also have additional peak
           | demand surcharges.
        
           | morelisp wrote:
           | While I'm sure there's a ton of possible places for
           | commercial use to optimize that aren't being done yet, stores
           | leaving signs on all night was banned by the EnSikuMaV back
           | in August.
        
             | zelphirkalt wrote:
             | They should come to my city then and start fining
             | businesses for violating that.
        
       | septune wrote:
       | After Fukushima nuclear accident, France green party shot on
       | French nuclear plants, it was the new cool thing to push for
       | sustainable only energy and bring down our nuclear industry.
       | Newly elected socialist president stared at the green party so he
       | also pushed against. 10 years later we have no plumbers, no
       | welders, old plans, no gas. And more to come : because of Ukraine
       | war and increasing EV, electrical power consumption is
       | anticipated to reach peaks and cause outages. Thats what you get
       | when politicians only consider their popularity, ignoring what
       | experts used to warn.
        
         | WastingMyTime89 wrote:
         | No one takes the Green Party seriously in France. They won a
         | few cities because the socialists are a mess and people wanted
         | to punish Macron but generally speaking they are only useful as
         | the butt of jokes. It's not a serious political party in any
         | way.
        
       | the_mitsuhiko wrote:
       | What's the reason that nuclear is so unreliable recently in
       | France?
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | A bit of everything, 5 have been stopped due to cracks:
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stress_corrosion_cracking
         | 
         | A few are having their once in a decade maintenance check
         | 
         | Some are waiting for maintenance which were delayed due to
         | covid
         | 
         | We didn't train enough maintenance workers because everyone was
         | talking about shifting out of nuclear in favor of renewable
         | (we're using American contractors now afaik)
         | 
         | So mostly bad decisions and poor management, it's a political
         | issue more than anything else, it worked fine since the 70s to
         | more or less a decade ago
        
           | gobip wrote:
           | You forget to mention a key point: these maintenance workers
           | were on strike and they were also part of the problem.
        
         | kkfx wrote:
         | Nothing is "unreliable recently", the mess is decade old,
         | simply when EDF was private, after have acquired public made
         | energy systems, they reduce investments to the minimum creating
         | the present mess. Once the damage was so big they can't mask it
         | again they left, leaving the mess to the public.
         | 
         | The public, who is abetter, have managed to push some excuses
         | to avoid finger point any private friend and so reveal the mess
         | all at once.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | yodsanklai wrote:
         | Short answer: Lack of investment caused by incompetent
         | politicians, supported by public opinion. Lot of French are
         | anti-nuclear.
        
           | tuatoru wrote:
           | Wikipedia says the plants are managed by EDF, a private
           | company. Ordinary asset management would have prevented known
           | problems, so there must be a few things that went wrong at
           | the same time.
        
             | ohgodplsno wrote:
             | EDF being a public company owned by the state means that it
             | gets hurt by two things:
             | 
             | * It has to make money, instead of being a utility that the
             | state provides, so decisions have to be taken in accord
             | with all shareholders.
             | 
             | * When it does make these decision, well, politicians have
             | been selling off EDF piece by piece on the right, and
             | sacrificing it to get votes from the green party on the
             | left.
             | 
             | All in all, incompetent fucks with a 5 year foresight
             | running it like a pawn on a chessboard, happily sacrificing
             | it to get a meager advantage.
        
             | detaro wrote:
             | A "private company", owned to 85% by the French state,
             | taking price policy orders from the French state, getting
             | regular cash injections from the French state to not go
             | bankrupt.
        
           | ttymck wrote:
           | Investment in _what_? The plant is still running, no? Do they
           | need _more_ plants, _repairs_ to existing, or _upgrades_ to
           | existing? How do I dig further?
        
             | guggle wrote:
             | > Do they need more plants, repairs to existing, or
             | upgrades to existing?
             | 
             | All of these... but no political will because "nuclear bad,
             | renewables good".
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | Well, what is there to say given the state of Flamanville
               | 3? Currently sitting at ~ EUR13 B compared to the initial
               | estimate of EUR3.3 B. With a tentative start date for end
               | of 2023.
               | 
               | All the while EDF is being nationalized. Should more
               | money have been spent in even deeper pits?
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_P
               | lan...
        
               | yodsanklai wrote:
               | > Should more money have been spent in even deeper pits?
               | 
               | If we want electricity in a world without less fossil
               | fuels, I'd say yes.
               | 
               | EDIT: renewable can't be the only solution. They are
               | cheap only because they are built on top of existing
               | nuclear/fossil solutions.
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | Renewables already fill that gap at vastly lower costs.
               | Unless you specify that you're one of the about a million
               | people living north of the arctic circle, then sure, do
               | whatever you need.
        
         | martin_a wrote:
         | In the summer they had lots of cooling issues due to low water,
         | if I remember the news correctly.
         | 
         | The article speaks of "ongoing or delayed maintenance, or
         | corrosion problems" as the next reason for the problems.
        
       | martin_a wrote:
       | > At the moment, half of the country's reactors are offline
       | because of ongoing or delayed maintenance, or corrosion problems.
       | The new generation of power stations has yet to be built.
       | 
       | Meanwhile, in Germany, pushing renewable energies is frowned upon
       | and people are saying "look to France, they're doing nuclear,
       | THAT would save us, too".
       | 
       | (Even more) Strange times ahead.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
        
       | lm28469 wrote:
       | From absolute gold standard electric production/infrastructure in
       | the 70s to barely able to light school rooms in 2022
       | 
       | I miss politicians who had a vision that didn't stop at the end
       | of their term.
       | 
       | We even had to restart a coal power plant last week...
        
         | kkfx wrote:
         | The issue is simple: privatizations.
         | 
         | The public in the past have invested for the public interests.
         | After the private have do not profiting from old State made
         | investments leaving anything else falling apart. When they
         | reach a certain level of mess they going out, leaving the State
         | arrange the mess and handle the rage, waiting to came back once
         | a new wave of investments will repair the mess.
         | 
         | Unfortunately people seems to ignore that, allowing such model
         | to prosper.
        
           | cm2187 wrote:
           | Not sure what privatisations have to do with the problem. My
           | understanding is that it is a combination of a technical
           | problem (corrosion happening at an unexpected pace) and the
           | impact of covid lockdowns which deferred critical
           | maintenance.
        
             | ohgodplsno wrote:
             | Privatization has everything to do with the problem. Let's
             | take EDF and our nuclear plants. Why is EDF struggling
             | financially today ? Because, through the magic of _opening
             | up to the market_, they have been forced to sell up to
             | 100TWh are prices as low as EUR40/MWh. The new private
             | operators that came in simply resold that. And right now ?
             | They're even kicking out clients, just so they could sell
             | on the market at EUR1000/MWh. What does EDF struggling
             | financially mean ? Among others, fully depending on the
             | state to give them the money they need to exist, not being
             | able to keep training and maintain specialists to repair
             | such corrosion (we needed to import people because there
             | were simply not enough qualified engineers for that), not
             | being able to build more plants and therefore losing our
             | edge in nuclear power.
             | 
             | Why are most of our public services struggling ? Because
             | over time, they've been handed out to private companies.
             | Unemployment office ? Partly privatized. Tax collection
             | from employers ? Privatized. Healthcare ? Partly
             | privatized, and the beast is being starved so they can
             | privatize it more.
             | 
             | There has not been a single, memorable outcome of a public
             | service being privatized in France and it getting better.
        
               | skellington wrote:
               | Incomplete and biased analysis. What you describe as
               | 'privatization' is nothing like a free market which is
               | what most people think you're describing.
               | 
               | Privatization in your case is crony capitalism combined
               | with state power to manipulate markets in favor of
               | certain actors. The key enabler in this scheme is
               | government power corrupted by money.
               | 
               | The commonality in all the different areas that are
               | failing -- power, healthcare, homelessness, etc.. --- are
               | the regulatory systems that are grossly distorted by
               | corrupted government interventions.
               | 
               | The main problem with governments and their services
               | today is that there is no real feedback loop and systems
               | without feedback are doomed to fail. You can vote liberal
               | or conservative and nothing changes because they are two
               | wings of the same bird.
        
               | analognoise wrote:
               | Maybe there's no "good" capitalism? What we used to think
               | of as "good" capitalism was really heavy government
               | investment leading to a "virtuous feedback loop", for
               | which the Government got no credit?
               | 
               | I think that's more accurate then the "not TRUE
               | capitalism"/no true Scotsman interpretation.
        
               | alwayseasy wrote:
               | > Among others, fully depending on the state to give them
               | the money they need to exist, not being able to keep
               | training and maintain specialists to repair such
               | corrosion (we needed to import people because there were
               | simply not enough qualified engineers for that), not
               | being able to build more plants and therefore losing our
               | edge in nuclear power.
               | 
               | EDF is struggling because the state kept intervening and
               | asking them to shut down future nuclear plants. You can't
               | have specialists if they are retiring and the state
               | destroyed any career prospects due to planning they would
               | shut down plants...
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | Have a look at Flamanville 3 and then try to sell another
               | 20 of those to the public.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_P
               | lan...
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | > they have been forced to sell up to 100TWh are prices
               | as low as EUR40/MWh.
               | 
               | Should be plenty. The Swedish paid off nuclear plants
               | operate around EUR25/MWh. Lazard similarly puts the range
               | for paid-off nuclear plants at $24-$33/MWh.
               | 
               | It's simply mismanagement of a golden goose.
               | 
               | https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-
               | energy-...
        
               | forty wrote:
               | It's easy to underpay nuclear power then realize heavy
               | investments are needed after a while to either keep the
               | plants alive with modern safety norms or to dismantle
               | them (we have done that a lot here, electricity used to
               | be cheap).
               | 
               | Also EDF has been trying to build the EPR in England,
               | Finland and France, and it costed much more to build than
               | budgeted. And someone has to pay the difference. And it
               | seems that this someone is us :) (French tax payers and
               | consumers)
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | > Also EDF has been trying to build the EPR in England,
               | Finland and France, and it costed much more to build than
               | budgeted. And someone has to pay the difference. And it
               | seems that this someone is us :) (French tax payers and
               | consumers)
               | 
               | My view is that it is a subsidy for the naval nuclear
               | reactors and weapons programs in UK and France that they
               | choose to pay from a national security perspective. The
               | French and UK public simply gets to eat the costs with
               | barely any say in the matter.
        
               | akiselev wrote:
               | It's "simply mismanagement" is a trivial tautology that
               | can be applied to any situation.
               | 
               | Team didn't deliver? Mismanaged the team. Team failed to
               | deliver because they didn't do any work? Mismanaged the
               | hiring process. Massive wild fire? Mismanaged forests.
               | Asteroid wipes out all life on Earth? Mismanaged the
               | planetary defense systems. Andor escapes from Narkina 5?
               | Mismanaged imperial prison complex.
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | Given that nuclear power plants are known entities and
               | the list of "unknown unknowns" should be non-existent
               | given their safety critical nature it simply is
               | mismanagement.
               | 
               | If your nuclear plant costs more than $33/MWh to operate
               | then you are doing something wrong and stop trying to
               | blame "the green movement", "privatization" or whatever.
        
               | katbyte wrote:
               | so costs to build operate and maintain something never
               | changes and is the exact same everywhere and in every
               | country and if it's different then what you think it's
               | "mismanagement"?
               | 
               | Because I'm pretty sure it's going to be different from
               | France to America to poland
        
               | Gwypaas wrote:
               | > The LCOE figures for existing Generation II nuclear
               | power plants integrating post-Fukushima stress tests
               | safety upgrades following refurbishment for extended
               | operation (10-20 years on average): (in 2012 euros)
               | EUR23/MWh to EUR26/MWh (5% and 10% discount rate).
               | 
               | There, from a source extremely positively biased towards
               | nuclear.
               | 
               | https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/economic-
               | aspec...
               | 
               | Putting the 2012 EUR23/MWh to EUR26/MW in an inflation
               | calculator gives EUR26/MWh to EUR29/MWh.
        
           | gobip wrote:
           | Your own argument is busted by.. your own argument. EDF has
           | been nationalized again and here we are. The issue isn't
           | "privatizations".
        
             | ohgodplsno wrote:
             | Lol no it hasn't. As of last year, the state owned 83% of
             | EDF, along with everything that being a publicly traded
             | company entails. The renationalization process has been
             | started, then immediately halted by shareholders that sued
             | to block it. Additionally, things don't get magically fixed
             | because it belongs to the state again. The current state of
             | things is the result of 20 years of selling off EDF, piece
             | by piece to vultures.
        
             | kevingadd wrote:
             | This is like watching a new administration take over
             | government and then blaming them a month later for problems
             | caused by the previous administrators. It takes time to fix
             | years of neglect and malicious incompetence.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | The issue with "privatisation" (they're not all the same) IMO
           | is that it's usually done by politicians trying to get
           | something for nothing.
           | 
           | Lets say the benefits of privatisation are 10% cheaper
           | widgets or power stations, a politician will aim for 30%.
           | Goodbye future.
        
             | guggle wrote:
             | Private or public, nuclear does not like short-term
             | management. And there has been too much of it lately,
             | mostly because politics.
        
           | ttymck wrote:
           | Sorry, I don't mean to be rude, but I can't quite follow what
           | you're saying. I know it's anti-privatization, but I can
           | really make out the rest.
           | 
           | What does this mean > "After the private have do not
           | profiting from old State made investments leaving anything
           | else falling apart. When they reach a certain level of mess
           | they going out, leaving the State arrange the mess and handle
           | the rage"
        
             | oezi wrote:
             | He means that a publically built monopoly rarely benefits
             | from privatization. Because the efficiency gains will
             | largely be extracted by the private owners.
        
               | Raed667 wrote:
               | there was also an (ideology motivated) sabotage, where
               | EDF is forced to sell at a loss to private competitors
               | who produce nothing, who then will turn around and sell
               | to customers at a cheaper price than EDF. So they can
               | claim that private is obviously better.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | It's all a house of cards anyway, as the "alternative
               | providers" who were supposed to provide all that magical
               | agile goodness through the wonders of competition fold
               | one after the other and are actively pushing their
               | customers to EDF.
               | 
               | That's cargo cult economics: someone said competition was
               | good so we're going to have all the appearances of it
               | without giving up on our large publicly-funded
               | infrastructure. Because at the end of the day we need
               | electricity and all these rent seekers are only good at
               | extracting value from existing installations. Utterly
               | disgusting.
        
           | lairv wrote:
           | Sure, obviously this has nothing to do with a 40-year anti-
           | nuclear policy.
        
             | sangnoir wrote:
             | > Sure, obviously this has nothing to do with a 40-year
             | anti-nuclear policy.
             | 
             | Ah, the good ol' French anti-nuclear policy: I remember
             | when French intelligence blew up a ship belonging to a pro-
             | nuclear lobby group. Wait, that was the _Rainbow Warrior_
             | [0], which belonged to Greenpeace, en route to
             | demonstrations against French nuclear tests
             | 
             | 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_War
             | rior
        
               | lairv wrote:
               | We're talking about nuclear power here, not weapons, I
               | thought that was implicit, and no the two are not
               | necessarily related
        
             | hinata08 wrote:
             | the anti-nuclear policy was in Germany
             | 
             | France was proud of the nuclear energy. It had plenty of
             | cheap and carbon-free electricity (it was once exported to
             | all the neighbouring countries) It was a way to be
             | independent energy wise, as more countries can export
             | nuclear fuel than oil. It was building power plants, and
             | processing nuclear waste from other countries
             | 
             | And it made plenty of engineers busy ! France used to be a
             | country led by engineers.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | The Superphenix closure was entirely political. The
               | turning point was when the socialists had to ally with
               | the environmentalists because they were getting short on
               | votes. That would be the "gauche plurielle" circa 1997.
               | In parallel the Gaullist old guard, who were all about
               | sovereignty were overtaken on the right by neo-liberals
               | looking to get a quick buck, for whom the Russian
               | oligarchs were role models, also in the mid-1990s. But
               | even at that point it was uneasy. I think most informed
               | people would have been pro-nuclear, but that was a
               | politically risky thing to say out loud.
               | 
               | The environmentalists (well, most of them anyway; there
               | always were some who saw that the alternative to nuclear
               | was coal and oil, not sunshine and rainbows) were always
               | against because they were mostly hippies doubtful of any
               | state-run project and somehow nuclear bombs.
               | 
               | > France used to be a country led by engineers.
               | 
               | And teachers and doctors. But we've got the politicians
               | we vote for.
        
               | lairv wrote:
               | Anti-nuclear policy sure was more significant in Germany
               | as it has led to the complete stop of its use, but in
               | France it has also slowed down the development of the
               | industry.
               | 
               | Although it has evolved positively over the last three
               | years, nuclear energy remains controversial in public
               | opinion [0,1], and many ecologist and left-wing movements
               | have militated against nuclear power for the last 30
               | years. Whether or not it had an impact on the country
               | policy toward nuclear power would require a more in-depth
               | and complete archive work, but just remember that
               | Emmanuel Macron was advocating toward reducing the share
               | of nuclear power when he was elected for the first time
               | in 2017 [2] (he has now changed)
               | 
               | [0] https://www.ifop.com/publication/lopinion-des-
               | francais-sur-l...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-
               | societe/societe/sondage-ex...
               | 
               | [2] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x87skbx
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | cdot2 wrote:
       | So the issue is that many of their nuclear plants require long
       | maintenance downtime simultaneously? That seems like something
       | that could have been foreseen.
        
         | seszett wrote:
         | Maintenance had been postponed during the corona crisis. What
         | had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of Ukraine and
         | the associated general energy crisis in Europe.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | Can't forsee covid though, nor the war in Ukraine
         | 
         | Without these two things we most likely wouldn't have blackouts
        
           | Normille wrote:
           | >What had not been foreseen was the Russian invasion of
           | Ukraine and the associated general energy crisis in Europe...
           | >Can't forsee covid though, nor the war in Ukraine...
           | 
           | Yes. Who could possibly have foreseen that announcing you're
           | stopping imports of gas from Europe's biggest supplier, in
           | the run up to winter, might lead to... er... a shortage of
           | gas supplies.
           | 
           | No-one in the corridors of power in the EU or UK, apparently.
        
             | lm28469 wrote:
             | If you plan for these events you'll quickly stop all
             | imports and exports because you'd have to be self
             | sufficient 24/7
        
             | f6v wrote:
             | > No-one in the corridors of power in the EU or UK,
             | apparently.
             | 
             | The whole conflict is just the other party calling bluff.
             | But both the West and Russia have invested so much neither
             | is going to settle. So they up the stakes and get dragged
             | downwards. The only thing left is to complain that "it's
             | unfair the the US is profiting".
        
               | sgt wrote:
               | And those pesky Norwegians.
        
         | oezi wrote:
         | If anything can be learnt here it is
         | 
         | A.) that many things cannot be easily foreseen which includes
         | record draughts and the Ukraine conflict.
         | 
         | B.) It makes sense to have a diversified energy mix where no
         | single source is used predominantly.
        
         | masklinn wrote:
         | Yes and no. The 10 years maintenance was foreseeable, but
         | during that they discovered a stress corrosion issue, initially
         | on the (somewhat beleaguered) N4 plants but which turned out to
         | be a lot more widespread than that.
         | 
         | It's also chicken-decisions coming home to roost: maintenance
         | delays due to covid, poor maintenance conditions leading to
         | strikes, and training of new maintenance staff had apparently
         | been slashed because an expected shift to renewables means you
         | apparently don't need to train staff to maintain 50+ nuclear
         | plants expected to run for decades more.
        
       | coulditbenow wrote:
       | I wonder how this will affect people's circadian rhythms and
       | subsequent health benefits, prime time for a study.
        
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