[HN Gopher] Lionel Messi Is Impossible (2014)
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Lionel Messi Is Impossible (2014)
        
       Author : wallflower
       Score  : 277 points
       Date   : 2022-12-18 15:07 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (fivethirtyeight.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (fivethirtyeight.com)
        
       | smhg wrote:
       | When I navigate back to HN after reading the article, I get a
       | page 'more stories before you go'. At least the first time I
       | opened the link.
       | 
       | How is 538 able to intercept my navigation away from their page?
        
         | xwdv wrote:
         | JavaScript
        
           | MrPatan wrote:
           | JavaScript doesn't make websites shitty, people make websites
           | shitty.
        
             | noirbot wrote:
             | Sure, but the question was "how do they do this" not "why
             | would they do this"
        
         | dclowd9901 wrote:
         | Specifically, in Javascript you can superficially push a
         | navigated state into the location stack so that when the user
         | presses the back button, it is now the inserted page instead of
         | the "actual" one. Most FE devs consider this a dark pattern and
         | refuse to implement it.
         | 
         | That said, it's basically just the front end's version of a
         | redirect. Unfortunately it's been used a lot especially by
         | malware sites to basically jail people into their site.
        
         | fyzix wrote:
         | I think google should factor this in pagerankings. Might be the
         | only thing that can force change
        
         | rvr_ wrote:
         | https://www.w3schools.com/jsref/event_onbeforeunload.asp
        
           | graderjs wrote:
           | No, it wouldn't be that. That can only prevent unload if it
           | throws a native modal up (cousin of alert, confirm, prompt,
           | etc).
           | 
           | I think what they must have done is push some URL to the
           | history state, using the History API, to fuck with the back
           | and forward buttons, enabling them to intercept when you
           | navigate back, by having added an additional page in there,
           | that you never visited, but that they can use to serve you
           | this interstitial.
           | 
           | Just my 2c
        
           | smhg wrote:
           | I'm baffled any half decent site would use that. I expected
           | some kind of new web/Chrome API.
           | 
           | That's a very "bold" choice of 538 if you ask me.
        
             | usmannk wrote:
             | It's not that, they're pushing the "before you go" page to
             | the history stack. https://developer.mozilla.org/en-
             | US/docs/Web/API/History/pus...
             | 
             | You can see it if you right click the back button after
             | navigating to the article.
        
         | kmonsen wrote:
         | I feel like every site is doing it these days. Wonder if
         | browsers should start blocking it.
        
       | balaji1 wrote:
       | who else is here at half time?
        
         | Darmody wrote:
         | I stopped watching it after the penalty.
         | 
         | This is not football, it's geopolitics.
        
           | xenospn wrote:
           | Did geopolitics make France not kick a single ball at the
           | goal for 70 minutes?
        
             | Darmody wrote:
             | No, it's because they play like crap.
             | 
             | I'm not defending France or anything. I dislike both teams,
             | my team got eliminated a while ago.
             | 
             | But take a look at Argentina - Croatia. Argentina was way
             | superior after the first 20 min or so, but Croatia was
             | still holding. After the penalty Croatia was no longer
             | playing football. When Argentina scored the second goal the
             | defense was scared of even approaching the ball. A penalty
             | in a tournament like this can kill the morale easily.
        
               | phlakaton wrote:
               | I think you are mistaking hard physical play with
               | geopolitics. An understandable mistake! They look so
               | similar. ;-)
        
               | barrenko wrote:
               | This happened all the time with Barcelona and Messi in
               | the "golden" years. He's still a great player, but...
               | ither should be allowed to play against fairly.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | There needs to be a better way to deal with fouls "in the
               | area".
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | > This is not football, it's geopolitics.
           | 
           | I often compare it to medicine, where a football match is a
           | drug that is tested with a randomized controlled trial with
           | N=1.
           | 
           | If football matches had a p-value for "the best team won", it
           | would be abominable.
        
           | pelasaco wrote:
           | I'm not sure if you are french or german, but both teams,
           | together with netherlands, were those that profit at most
           | from geopolitics in football.
        
             | Darmody wrote:
             | I'm neither of those.
             | 
             | Also I'm talking about Qatar here, not Argentina or France.
        
           | subpixel wrote:
           | I felt the penalty was a gift from the sponsors but kept
           | watching. France almost overcame that thumb on the scales,
           | and I'm glad I didn't tune out.
           | 
           | Still, it's an egregious shame and it tarnishes the win.
        
           | whoevercares wrote:
           | Geopolitics that is in favor of Argentina?? That does not
           | make any sense.
           | 
           | I would buy that story if it were for China - look at all the
           | ads and they even built the stadium. Too fantasy though since
           | China men's soccer team is a total joke
        
             | boomboomsubban wrote:
             | FIFA very possibly wants Argentina to win, not for
             | geopolitical reasons but to sell the Messi legend more.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | balaji1 wrote:
               | Yes. Maybe there is greater commercial value of a Messi +
               | Argentina win. But then now (at 81'), it seems they
               | haven't made up their mind. 2-2.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | The longer people watch the game, the better, no?
        
             | galgot wrote:
             | It's not about France or Argentina. It's about the PSG, a
             | club owned by Qatar (buye... ahem... host of the world
             | cup), where both Messi and Mbappe plays.
        
             | Darmody wrote:
             | More in favour of Qatar.
             | 
             | They spend 10 times more than the other countries to host
             | the world cup. They want it to be a big hit. That's why
             | FIFA has been saying that this is the best wold cup ever
             | and bla bla bla.
        
               | whoevercares wrote:
               | Ok that looks like game gambling and manipulation much
               | more than geopolitics. Not surprised if Qatar has a fair
               | share there
        
               | Darmody wrote:
               | It's Qatar playing geopolitics. They didn't spend $200+
               | billion because they love football.
               | 
               | They want something big to show the world. What better
               | than having one of the best players ever win a world cup
               | before retiring?
               | 
               | That's how I see it.
        
               | phlakaton wrote:
               | One of the best players in the game was going to win no
               | matter which side won. This looked like a pretty fairly-
               | called contest to me.
               | 
               | But hey, even a 7-1 beatdown of the favorites can make
               | for a memorable and entertaining World Cup.
        
             | NhanH wrote:
             | In 2018 there was 29 penalties in total. This year there is
             | 17 penalties during the matches (including the final so
             | far), with Argentina getting 5 out of 17.
             | 
             | It is unusual enough to let people wonder.
        
               | kaesar14 wrote:
               | Doesn't seem unusual that a top team would get more
               | penalties
        
               | balaji1 wrote:
               | True. And reckless challenges seem to be going up in
               | general.
               | 
               | Did someone count the number of cards and penalties
               | against Arsenal last season?
        
               | koolba wrote:
               | That's meaningless without a denominator. All other
               | things being equal, the team with more time spent in the
               | opponents box would be expected to have more penalty
               | kicks.
               | 
               | EDIT: And just as I write this France draws a penalty!
        
               | NhanH wrote:
               | I have no horse in this fight, just wanted to point out a
               | curious fact.
               | 
               | That said, the denominator/ top team argument only holds
               | if Argentina was the most dominant team in the cup by a
               | landslide (considering the ratio of the total penalties).
               | They weren't, they performed mostly in the same pack of
               | France/England/ Portugal. Brazil would be the only team
               | that was blatantly more dominant. Another denominator
               | could potentially be number of foul against, and I would
               | be surprised if it is that lopsided.
        
               | whoevercares wrote:
               | What the hell!!!! It's a draw now
        
           | arrrg wrote:
           | FIFA has a product that is a glittering diamond for ascending
           | or old (authoritarian) regimes irrespective of whether FIFA
           | exerts any influence on the content itself (the games). That
           | just doesn't matter and also isn't necessary so why should
           | they even try to touch that? Makes no rational sense.
           | 
           | FIFA's job is to get the teams that make the glittering
           | diamond to play in the WC without too much fuss and without
           | making any problems. In that context doing shady shit on the
           | playfield would even be counterproductive.
           | 
           | If all (important) national teams feel like the games
           | themselves are fair and that they are heard when there are
           | problems on the playfield then at least that's not an
           | additional area of conflict.
           | 
           | For that reason I think it's extremely unlikely for
           | corruption to actually extend to the playfield. It's just no
           | needed and even counterproductive. I think that might
           | actually be the thing that actually breaks FIFA's power, so I
           | would think that they don't touch it.
        
           | cbrozefsky wrote:
           | Dembele is one of my favorites, but when you get beat like he
           | did and then tangle legs from behind, that is going to get
           | called every time.
        
             | pelasaco wrote:
             | this second penalty was - however - a mistake.
        
             | Darmody wrote:
             | You can watch the replay as many times as you want and you
             | won't see Dembele touching Di Maria until he's already on
             | the floor.
        
               | kaesar14 wrote:
               | And yet France just got away with a blatant handball.
               | Geopolitics indeed.
        
               | Mikeb85 wrote:
               | You talking about the one that was way outside the box
               | and going out of bounds anyway?
        
               | kaesar14 wrote:
               | France lost with two penalties given. Get over it.
        
               | Mikeb85 wrote:
               | I mean, they've won twice in my lifetime and I watched
               | both. It's ok. Just trying to figure out what you were
               | watching?
        
               | larksimian wrote:
               | He touches his back foot while Di Maria is still running.
               | BBC commentators all also agreed it was a clear pen(and
               | I'm romanian just to dispel political bias hopefully).
               | 
               | Di Maria just destroyed that flank this game.
        
           | mrtksn wrote:
           | The Argentina penalty or the France penalty?
        
           | balaji1 wrote:
           | @Darmody, if only you had used a word like "commerce" or
           | "business" instead of "geopolitics". This match and WC seems
           | like good business. Also I'm not entertained but that was
           | their intention I guess.
        
             | Darmody wrote:
             | It's business for FIFA, geopolitics for Qatar.
             | 
             | This is the money spent on the last world cups.
             | 
             | QAT (2022) US$229 billion[1]
             | 
             | RUS (2018) US$16 billion[2]
             | 
             | BRA (2014) US$19.7 billion[3]
             | 
             | RSA (2010) US$7.2 billion[4]
             | 
             | GER (2006) US$4.9(EUR3.7) billion[5]
             | 
             | KOR/ JPN (2002) US$7 billion[6]
             | 
             | FRA (1998) US$2.33 billion[7]
             | 
             | USA (1994) US$500.00 million[8]
             | 
             | ITA (1990) US$4 billion[9]
             | 
             | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_the_FIFA
             | _World_Cu...
        
               | chrisweekly wrote:
               | WOW!! That is extraordinary. I had no idea. Curious what
               | 2026 will look like.
        
           | peregren wrote:
           | Can you explain the relationship between the penalty and
           | geopolitics?
        
           | sanman811 wrote:
           | Might want to start rewatching. Geopolitics be darned
        
             | pelasaco wrote:
             | now better stop to watch it again.. Argentinian geopolitics
             | at full power here :)
        
         | mellosouls wrote:
         | checking in
        
         | susrev wrote:
         | yup!
        
         | nodra wrote:
         | Here to watch the Argentinian flop fest
        
         | nkzd wrote:
         | Haha, right here!
        
         | xenospn wrote:
         | So exciting!
        
         | hamparawa wrote:
         | hello!
        
         | benrmatthews wrote:
         | Hola!
        
         | mromanuk wrote:
         | Me!
        
         | samwillis wrote:
         | This was submitted at the start of the match, but didn't get
         | any comments till half time, quite telling. (currently 13
         | comments 10min into half time)
         | 
         | I wander what a vote count over time graph looks like for this
         | post. I assume everyone is going to disappear again in 5 min.
         | 
         | (also here during half time)
         | 
         | Edit: 20 comments at second half kick off.
        
         | maguirre wrote:
         | Looking for a dopamine hit :)
        
         | mromanuk wrote:
         | I was trying to clear my mind from the match, but the world
         | clip and our hero Messi is everywhere, even in HN
        
         | pelasaco wrote:
         | Me! Looks like this comment from Mbappe will age like Milk
         | https://twitter.com/espnfc/status/1529214154015395842?lang=e...
         | 
         | EDIT: OR maybe not LOL.. France is just physically too
         | strong... Technically? Meh.
        
           | ianmcgowan wrote:
           | Aged like milk indeed :-)
        
             | pelasaco wrote:
             | Not sure, what I should write here now, LOL.. let me wait
             | 10 more minutes :)
        
           | samwillis wrote:
           | Not looking that clear cut now...
        
         | pookah wrote:
         | Haven't watched soccer in 20 years. Watched two teams in Europe
         | kick a ball mid field for what felt like four hours.
         | 
         | Thank god for Patrick Mahomes...
        
       | bandyaboot wrote:
       | It would be immensely fun as a layperson to go up against Messi
       | just to see how many seconds of trying to separate the ball from
       | his possession I could go before I've tripped over my own feet
       | and am laughing hysterically at the sheer magic of what he's able
       | to do.
        
         | faitswulff wrote:
         | I think it would be more fun to match him against an entire
         | team of laypeople. Any single individual wouldn't even be able
         | to see him.
        
           | rvba wrote:
           | Since every Messi thread somehow ends up with Ronaldo, there
           | is a video where Ronaldo is "smurfing" disguised with a fake
           | beard: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68E53lcUIKE The video
           | is not really that interesting.
           | 
           | As for "entire team playing against a team of laypeople" - I
           | would like to see something like this too. Best we can have
           | is probably the match between American Samoa and Australia
           | that ended 0-31
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wg9ox9F7Vw
        
         | xcambar wrote:
         | Messi or any other pro player doesn't really make a difference
         | if it's against the average person.
         | 
         | Average Joe/Jane just doesn't get to touch the ball. Period.
        
         | elorant wrote:
         | I used to play semi pro volleyball in late puberty. We had a
         | quite nice school team and we were second in regional
         | championship which was taking place in the largest city of the
         | country. One day while we were having a workout a friend of our
         | coach showed up who was playing in the national team so we
         | asked him to participate. Dude was willing to do so and from
         | the way he played it was obvious he wasn't really trying. So at
         | one point he's on the offensive and I jump to block him which I
         | did. The one thing I remember even three decades later is just
         | how much my palms hurt. Both my hands had gone numb. There was
         | a lot of cheer and he came alongside to congratulate me, but
         | all I was thinking at the moment was fuck this hurts so much. I
         | can't even imagine how it would feel had he gone full force
         | while hitting the ball, although I seriously doubt I could have
         | blocked it if he did.
         | 
         | A layman person can't realize how vast the gap is between
         | him/her and a pro player, let alone elite players. My guess is
         | that you wouldn't even have the time to react because he's so
         | agile he can change direction in a fraction of a second. You
         | wouldn't trip and fall, you'd simply stood still and by the
         | time you'd register what happened he'd be ten feet behind you.
        
           | permo-w wrote:
           | on top of this the fact that football has an order of
           | magnitude larger talent pool than volleyball
        
       | didip wrote:
       | He did it. He won. The ultimate GOAT! He finally got it before
       | retirement!
       | 
       | I will remember this game for a long time. The dramatic twists
       | and turns are so memorable.
        
       | soheil wrote:
       | Better believe it!!
        
       | divbzero wrote:
       | Related:
       | 
       |  _An analysis of Lionel Messi_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7972815 - July 2014 (129
       | comments)
        
       | quirino wrote:
       | There's a subreddit called r/toprightmessi which is a collection
       | of graphs showing how much Messi excels in so many respects.
       | Crazy how in the biggest sport in the world there can be a player
       | so far above and beyond the rest.
        
         | MichaelZuo wrote:
         | Is there anyone else in the sporting world that's such a
         | statistical outlier?
        
           | amenghra wrote:
           | Most athletes who are at the top of their sport when they
           | reach age ~40 tend to be crazy outliers. I'm thinking Michael
           | Schumacher (F1), Tom Brady (NFL), Roger Federer (tennis),
           | etc.
        
             | walthamstow wrote:
             | They are outliers because it's a brand new phenomenon. This
             | generation has the first sportsmen to push 40 in a lot of
             | sports, beit Federer, James Anderson, Brady, Ibrahimovic.
             | It will become quite common as time goes on I expect.
             | 
             | p.s. Schumacher drove a car, so I'm not sure he is a fair
             | comparison to physical sportsmen
        
               | Daneel_ wrote:
               | Your postscript is a bit unfair to racing drivers - it's
               | actually an incredibly physically demanding sport.
        
           | shakesbeard wrote:
           | Don Bradman in Cricket.
           | 
           | Apparently, a good batting average for a modern-day batsman
           | is 40+ with those above 50 being exceptional. Bradman's
           | average was 99.94. The second highest average of all time is
           | 60.97.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Bradman
        
             | nl wrote:
             | It's difficult to emphasize what a complete statistical
             | outlier Bradman is.
             | 
             | As the parent poster points out, the next highest average
             | is in the low 60s (actually 61.87 now[1]). Looking at the
             | stats though, we see averages are roughly a normal curve,
             | centered on 40 with a standard deviation of a little over
             | 9[2]. This puts Bradman _over 6 standard deviations_ above
             | average!
             | 
             | [1] https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/28291
             | 0.htm...
             | 
             | [2] https://www.significancemagazine.com/sports/24-did-don-
             | bradm...
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | Gretzky is even more insane. Fun facts:
           | 
           | If you don't count his goals, he still has more points than
           | the next guy. Points are goals plus assists.
           | 
           | Something like 15 of the best 20 seasons in history by points
           | are him.
           | 
           | Player of the year every year for a decade.
           | 
           | The only thing that makes it look less spectacular is that
           | ice hockey is not the world's favourite sport.
           | 
           | Messi is the goat of a game that is massively popular on
           | every continent, that you can find people playing in a park
           | in almost every city.
        
           | Enginerrrd wrote:
           | Wayne Gretzky!
        
           | Gunnerhead wrote:
           | Definitely Gretzky!
        
         | ndsipa_pomu wrote:
         | Alternatively, is it due to the ubiquity of soccer that
         | particularly gifted individuals can be developed into their
         | full potential? Someone that has a one-in-a-billion level of
         | skill in something like frisbee-golf is less likely to be
         | spotted and made into a professional player.
        
           | browningstreet wrote:
           | As a fan of disc golf I pained and laughed at "frisbee-golf".
           | The distribution of talent and accomplishment in professional
           | disc golf .. a relatively young sport .. wouldn't surprise
           | anyone here.
        
             | ndsipa_pomu wrote:
             | Apologies for any discomfort - I clearly should have put
             | "disc golf".
        
           | derbOac wrote:
           | This is the weird thing for me about some of these
           | discussions. I'm not going to question Messi's ability or
           | ability in general but I've always wondered how much
           | "extraindividual" factors start to play a role in those upper
           | tails that are incentivized. We talk about Messi like he's
           | just a marble sculpture handed down from God but that's not
           | the case.
           | 
           | Looking at the figure, for example, one thing I noticed was
           | the gap between the two upper points and the rest. It's hard
           | for me to imagine there aren't some missing points there.
           | 
           | In other fields or areas, I think you have to start asking
           | about things like fraud, other vice, or circumstances.
           | 
           | As you suggest, there's probably also some unique things
           | about international football that make it difficult to
           | generalize to other things. Everything is probably a little
           | unique in certain ways really, but the incentives are so
           | extreme and the play is very visible.
        
             | Enginerrrd wrote:
             | One thing to note is that the stats in the article don't
             | appear to be normalized to me. It's just a lot of "# of X
             | since 2010". So, it makes sense that the best will be
             | played more often and get more play time to help drive the
             | separation greater.
        
           | Jenk wrote:
           | This is so true when looking at the distribution of top
           | olympic athletes Vs distribution of countries that invest in
           | developing said athletes in their chosen sport.
        
             | derbOac wrote:
             | Do you know of any sites offhand that discuss this? I can
             | look it up but wasn't sure if there were some you'd
             | recommend. The thing you're mentioning seems really
             | important as an example in these kinds of discussions.
        
         | emmelaich wrote:
         | And yet Mbappe is better paid - most valuable in the world it
         | is thought.
         | 
         | And his WC Final rival and PSG team mate.
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | If you were to define some new sport from scratch tomorrow
         | morning by the end of the afternoon the Bell curve would start
         | to assert itself in those that chose to play in it and over
         | time that would become more and more evident. Eventually a
         | 'Messi' would turn up.
        
           | dan-robertson wrote:
           | You say bell curve, which I understand as meaning normally
           | distributed, but the point about Messi is that he is better
           | than what one would expect to find from normally distributed
           | ability.
           | 
           | I think it is interesting to ask why Messi is such an
           | outlier. But maybe you think the fact that _someone_ has to
           | be best makes it all uninteresting.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | I think that effect comes from soccer being somewhat multi-
             | dimensional: the ability to run fast, aim well, have
             | stamina and so on.
             | 
             | And yes, I think that the fact that someone _will_ be the
             | best makes it uninteresting, or at least a lot less
             | interesting than if a skill could be universally taught to
             | the point where everybody would be very good at it and it
             | would be productive.
             | 
             | Professional sports is roughly at the same level of
             | interest to me as a circus.
        
         | OscarCunningham wrote:
         | With fat-tailed distributions, increasing the sample size
         | actually makes it more likely that you'll get one element much
         | greater than the others.
        
           | SmooL wrote:
           | Yes, but if you have many fat tailed distributions,
           | increasing the sample size makes it increasingly less likely
           | that it's _the same person at the end each time_
        
             | OscarCunningham wrote:
             | This would imply that there's a single factor upstream
             | leading to his exceptional ability in several measures
             | downstream.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | https://medium.com/@casciari/messi-is-a-dog-18b8f32766c8
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDsztJOgqUg
               | 
               | TL;DR / TL;DW: Messi is a dog. The ball is _his_.
        
           | jonahx wrote:
           | Isn't the surprising part that it's fat-tailed rather than
           | normal?
        
             | 082349872349872 wrote:
             | keep in mind that even if football ability were
             | (untrainable and) normally distributed, the distribution of
             | ability among international players would be taken from one
             | of the tails of that bell.
        
               | jonahx wrote:
               | Also a good point. Do you know what the exact
               | distribution would be when sampling randomly and
               | rejecting all values below some threshold? You can tell
               | it would at least be Pereto-ish in general shape.
        
               | 082349872349872 wrote:
               | I can't do much with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trunca
               | ted_normal_distribution but maybe you can?
        
             | eloff wrote:
             | Why would it be? All careers with leverage seem to follow a
             | Pareto distribution. It would surprise me if any sport,
             | art, or creative endeavor was normally distributed.
        
               | jonahx wrote:
               | You're right. I was thinking the "initial talent" might
               | be normal in the way IQ scores are, but the parent was
               | talking about actual performance, where history,
               | training, etc all come into play.
               | 
               | And empirically, you have Gretzky in hockey, Jordan in
               | basketball....
        
               | eloff wrote:
               | I don't even think initial talent is normally
               | distributed. Take Usain Bolt, for example, he'd be a far
               | outlier in a Pareto distribution for sprinters just on
               | the basis of his natural heritage.
        
               | hgsgm wrote:
        
               | OscarCunningham wrote:
               | IQ is normally distributed because it's graded on a curve
               | to make that true by definition. I'm not sure how it's
               | distributed on any sort of 'natural' scale.
        
               | derbOac wrote:
               | No, it's scaled but linearly and not redistributed.
               | 
               | There's still studies of relatively raw distributions and
               | it still looks normal. The biggest deviations from
               | normality are due to an excess mass in the lower range
               | due to disease, and a tendency for scores to spike a tiny
               | bit at certain numbers, probably due to people
               | administering the test fudging a bit sometimes for
               | various reasons.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | What would such a natural scale look like?
        
               | derefr wrote:
               | Maybe a cross-species IQ score would be interesting.
               | Chimpanzees and corvids both can solve many IQ-test
               | problems, but also are not experiencing the Flynn effect
               | as far as we know. So we could measure IQ in multiples of
               | a chimp's IQ, just like we measure cars in multiple's of
               | a workhorse's sustainable pulling output. (Which is
               | actually a _less_ objective measure, when you think about
               | it; we were breeding workhorses to increase that very
               | target at the time the concept of  "horsepower" was
               | invented!)
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | That would be a great start. And it would also force us
               | to acknowledge that a lot of the things that we are doing
               | with these animals are utterly un-ethical.
        
               | OscarCunningham wrote:
               | I'm reminded of the paper 'Measuring universal
               | intelligence: Towards an anytime intelligence test' https
               | ://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000437021..
               | ..
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Thank you for the pointer.
        
               | derefr wrote:
               | I suppose the distribution of aptitude would be a normal
               | distribution in a world where careers were assigned
               | randomly at birth and advancing in your career was on a
               | strict seniority basis. So, for example, you'd see it in
               | career paths that are mostly followed as generational
               | family businesses.
        
           | TreeRingCounter wrote:
           | This sounds like nonsense. We're talking about multivariate
           | distributions, and you haven't defined a norm by which
           | ordinal comparisons can be made between sample points.
        
             | brewmarche wrote:
             | All norms on finite-dimensional vector spaces are
             | equivalent so the choice of norm shouldn't matter for tails
             | really.
        
               | hgsgm wrote:
        
       | shkkmo wrote:
       | He's impossible, but not winning the golden boot anymore...
        
         | cryptonector wrote:
         | No one beats aging. But he's still amazing at 35.
        
       | axiom92 wrote:
       | Not to be a buzzkill, but being fooled by randomness is a thing
       | that should at least be mentioned here. Of course Taleb has more
       | to say on the matter in [1].
       | 
       | [1] https://www.amazon.in/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-
       | Market...
        
         | nl wrote:
         | It's not obvious why you think this applies here.
         | 
         | If statistics showing Messi is a great player were just random
         | we'd expect them to regress towards the mean. It's true that as
         | he ages they have a little, but if we compare him to players
         | who are also his age he remains a far outlier.
         | 
         | And even against the world's best, in the a tournament that
         | matters (ie, this world cup) he ended up being the second
         | highest goal scorer, second highest assist giver, highest
         | chance creator and second highest dribble completer[1].
         | 
         | So yes, I'd like to understand how randomness applies here.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/2022-fifa-world-cup/stats
        
       | epivosism wrote:
       | He has had an interesting medical journey:
       | https://journeys.dartmouth.edu/marcanovicoff22/messis-medica...
        
         | rurban wrote:
         | The call him "greatest soccer player of all time", but then the
         | talk about Messi, not Maradona. Lol
        
           | whywhywhydude wrote:
           | Have you actually seen Messi play?
        
           | BeetleB wrote:
           | If you compare Messi's record with Maradona's, there's not
           | much to compare. The latter could have been the best of all
           | time, but he sabotaged his own career.
        
           | cryptonector wrote:
           | Messi is a better player than Maradona, and also a better
           | person. His humility makes him a lot more likable, what can I
           | say. IMO.
        
             | ardit33 wrote:
             | Messi is actually a jerk. He purposely wanted to sink
             | Lewandowski Ballon D'or nomination (which was well
             | deserved) by voting for a nobody.
        
             | smcl wrote:
             | Weirdly I think Maradona's chaotic life off the pitch (and
             | I suppose no shortage of controversy on it) sort of adds to
             | his appeal :)
        
             | eertami wrote:
             | Maybe the bar for "good person" is set too low, if
             | convicted tax frauds are considered good people.
        
           | sweettea wrote:
           | Messi's captured the hearts of the casual World Cup fan
           | unlike anyone else. I don't know a whole lot about soccer --
           | more or less all I know is that the World Cup happens every
           | few years, is played by national teams, and Messi makes
           | impossible plays. What I do know is all because of Messi,
           | whose wholesome relatability and exceptional ability brings
           | casual viewers like me; I generally avoid sports because the
           | players are hard to relate to or have personal flaws, but I
           | love Messi's strong family roots. I would propose that merely
           | for being a truly exceptional face of the sport he's the
           | GOAT.
           | 
           | Maybe Maradona was that way in his day -- I'm barely aware
           | that he was a good player of yesteryear -- but his drug
           | problems (and the fact that his heyday was so long ago) make
           | him much less relatable or exciting to investigate as a
           | inspiration.
        
             | fnord123 wrote:
             | > wholesome relatability
             | 
             | Nice one. I think this post will go over most peoples'
             | heads but I had a good laugh.
        
             | andrepd wrote:
             | >Messi's captured the hearts of the casual World Cup fan
             | unlike anyone else. I don't know a whole lot about soccer
             | 
             | How on earth do you reconcile these two sentences lol x)
        
             | qsort wrote:
             | Answers to "who is the GOAT" that won't upset hardcore
             | soccer fans are the exactly the following set: {Maradona,
             | Pele, Cruyff}.
        
               | Scarblac wrote:
               | Nah, Messi was already part of that set for many years,
               | and today he added the only thing missing in his career.
               | Messi is the sole GOAT.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | Messi or Pele, then the other, and only then maybe
               | Maradona.
        
               | radiator wrote:
               | Ronaldo Luis Nazario de Lima
        
               | SSJPython wrote:
               | He would've been the GOAT had he stayed healthy.
               | Consistency and longevity are very important in this
               | debate.
        
               | radiator wrote:
               | Depends on the definition of GOAT. When he was at his
               | peak, he played the best football ever played.
               | 
               | By the way, both Maradona and Messi when previously
               | asked, have answered something along the lines that that
               | he was the greatest.
        
               | kamarg wrote:
               | Health issues cutting his career short ensured he won't
               | be in consideration for most people. That said, he truly
               | was phenomenal. Absolutely one of the most amazing to
               | ever play the game.
        
             | ardit33 wrote:
             | Nah. I am C. Ronaldo fan. For many he was an inspiration as
             | well. CR7 was unlucky this WC, due to his manager's poor
             | decisions with the Morocco game.
        
             | bhrgunatha wrote:
             | > I'm barely aware that he was a good player of yesteryear
             | 
             | As an English football fan, that cheered me up (it still
             | hurts). I suspect no English football fan could accept
             | Maradona as the greatest.
             | 
             | Do you know about Pele?
             | 
             | When I was a kid, it seems everyone (even non fans) knew
             | Pele was the greatest.
        
               | mayankkaizen wrote:
               | I am not interested in sports but when I was in my teens,
               | no other name was associated with any sport as was the
               | name of Pele with football. As you said, it seemed no one
               | was interested in football but everyone knew Pele was the
               | god of his game.
        
               | wslh wrote:
               | Have you watch this? "Diego Maradona Goal of the Century
               | | Argentina v England | 1986 FIFA World Cup" [1]
               | 
               | [1] https://youtu.be/Da_CDPRG2j0
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | Lol, yeah. That game in 1986 must have hurt. One of the
               | most beautiful goals of all time (which Messi has
               | replicated twice), then that awful hand-of-g-d goal
               | (which Messi, sadly, has also replicated twice).
        
               | nickcox wrote:
               | The second goal should also never have stood. Clear foul
               | on Glenn Hoddle.
        
               | heywhatupboys wrote:
               | > then that awful hand-of-g-d goal
               | 
               | everyone celebrates this goal. No fan has ever given him
               | shit about it
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | I care, what can I say. I want clean futbol.
        
               | phlakaton wrote:
               | Soccer is played by gloriously messy human beings. A bit
               | of schmutz now and then is not so terrible a thing.
        
               | cryptonector wrote:
               | That adds to Messi's greatness, since he's not
               | "gloriously messy".
        
               | mmplxx wrote:
               | I would say that Messi is gloriously messy.
        
               | mongol wrote:
               | It was opposite order. Hand goal, then dribble.
        
         | mgh2 wrote:
         | More background:
         | https://www.npr.org/2022/11/30/1139976898/messi-economics
        
         | rvba wrote:
         | When I was a kid, I always heard some Uncle claim that "rich
         | people" bribe the doctors to give growth hormone to their
         | children. That's why supposedly all the "rich people" children
         | were tall (being well fed probably helps here)
         | 
         | Is that real that the rich, VC types give growth hormone to
         | their children?
        
           | funnymony wrote:
           | Growth hormone called food
        
         | Aromasin wrote:
         | Wow. That's an incredible read.
        
       | jamespwilliams wrote:
       | Reminds me of
       | https://twitter.com/xgphilosophy/status/1604202292139491328 that
       | I saw this morning
        
         | kzrdude wrote:
         | Idea for this visualization: Highlight every season for Messi
         | (multiple colored points). Do the same for some other players.
         | One needs to look around in data to learn more from it.
        
       | andrea76 wrote:
       | If Lionel Messi is impossible, Maradona is more than.
        
         | chrisweekly wrote:
         | Messi's faced better defensive players as the game's evolved.
        
       | wslh wrote:
       | Messi just won his first Football World Cup!
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34040277
        
         | ReptileMan wrote:
         | Perfect end to a career.
        
         | susrev wrote:
        
         | emmelaich wrote:
         | Second if you count the u20 world cup -- in 2005.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_FIFA_World_Youth_Champion...
        
           | TapWaterBandit wrote:
           | Noone in the entire history of the planet earth does.
        
         | heywhatupboys wrote:
         | world football championship
        
           | markdown wrote:
           | Soccer Tournament.
        
           | elorant wrote:
           | Mundial
        
           | ls15 wrote:
           | Technically it is _FIFA World Cup_ , a tournament that is
           | sold to the highest bidder
        
             | googlryas wrote:
             | Right, and it is country-oriented which is fairly
             | arbitrary, not team-oriented as most football is played.
             | It's possible the best football team in the world(probably
             | the UEFA Champions League champs) could beat the winner of
             | the FIFA World Cup(barring the fact that some of the same
             | players may be on both teams), since the best football team
             | can and does draw from many different countries.
        
               | wslh wrote:
               | You missed the basic point: it is not about the UEFA: if
               | you can build a team with the best (team) players in the
               | world, it would beat other teams that are based on
               | nationality or specific leagues like UEFA. If Qatar wants
               | they can build a better team than the UEFA ones. Hint:
               | look at Barca.
        
               | andrepd wrote:
               | >If Qatar wants they can build a better team than the
               | UEFA ones
               | 
               | They definitely could not
               | 
               | >Hint: look at Barca.
               | 
               | What do you mean
        
               | nl wrote:
               | I think @wslh is saying the if you put the best players
               | from multiple countries together (eg, if Qatar decided to
               | spend unlimited money to build a club team that would be
               | eligable for UEFA club competitions) that team would be
               | the best.
               | 
               | >>Hint: look at Barca.
               | 
               | > What do you mean
               | 
               | This is a reference to the Barcelona teams built with
               | basically unlimited budgets that have dominated the
               | European Cup.
               | 
               | Of course, Qatar sort of does have a UEFA team called
               | Manchester City via the state-run Qatar Airlines
               | sponsorship. It has a basically unlimited budget and has
               | dominated the English premier league for a while now
               | (although it has struggled in European competition).
        
               | gpderetta wrote:
               | I think it is generally understand that the best football
               | clubs would far stronger than the best national teams. At
               | the very least club team players play and train together
               | the whole year, while national teams only have a few
               | weeks every couple of years.
        
               | andrepd wrote:
               | National teams play several times a year.
        
           | umanwizard wrote:
           | It's incredibly annoying how whenever someone calls the game
           | "soccer", a smug European person pipes up to say that it's
           | really called "football".
           | 
           | (And yes, I've only ever seen Europeans doing this, not
           | people from any of the other parts of the world where it's
           | also called football).
           | 
           | Is it really so hard for you to accept that there are
           | different words for things in different countries, and that
           | not all cultures are identical to your own?
        
             | borissk wrote:
             | Football is kind of a logical name for one game and pretty
             | illogical for another.
             | 
             | US should just adopt the metric system and start calling
             | their sport handegg :)
        
               | arkad wrote:
               | If football rules allow all body parts except hands then
               | a logical name would be Nohandball.
        
               | silisili wrote:
               | Footheadchestknee ball doesn't quite roll off the tongue
               | as well, so nohandball it is.
        
               | umanwizard wrote:
               | Both games evolved from the collection of related pre-
               | modern games that were all called "football", as did
               | rugby, Australian football, and some others.
               | 
               | In every English-speaking country, whichever of these
               | related games is most popular is simply called
               | "football".
               | 
               | It's unclear whether the name derives from kicking the
               | ball with the foot (which happens to a greater or lesser
               | extent in all such games), or from the fact that they're
               | played on foot (rather than e.g. on horseback).
        
               | Archelaos wrote:
               | On the etymology of "soccer":                 1889,
               | socca, later socker (1891), soccer (1895), originally
               | university slang (with jocular formation -er (3)), from a
               | shortened form of Assoc., abbreviation of association in
               | Football Association (as opposed to Rugby football);
               | compare rugger. An unusual method of formation, but those
               | who did it perhaps shied away from making a name out of
               | the first three letters of Assoc. Compare 1890s English
               | schoolboy slang leccer, from lecture (n.).
               | 
               | Source: https://www.etymonline.com/word/soccer
        
               | philwelch wrote:
               | To your point, the first college football game in the US
               | was, simultaneously, the first college soccer game
               | because it took place before the split between soccer and
               | rugby, and the rules were those drafted by the Football
               | Association in England. The rugby rules were adopted by
               | Canadian colleges, who went on to play against American
               | colleges, who adopted the rugby rules and added the
               | initial changes that created American football.
        
               | GeneralMayhem wrote:
               | A gridiron football is still clearly a ball in function,
               | even if not spherical, just like how a rugby ball is
               | still called a ball.
               | 
               | The word "football" has been used to describe games
               | played without kicking for centuries. A possible
               | etymology is that it means not a game played _with the
               | feet_ , but a game played _on foot_. It could describe
               | any of the games played by peasants, as opposed to the
               | equestrian sports (racing, polo, dressage) played by
               | aristocrats.
        
               | chrisbaker98 wrote:
               | > A possible etymology is that it means not a game played
               | with the feet, but a game played on foot.
               | 
               | As opposed to all those other popular ball games which
               | are played sitting down?
        
               | tromp wrote:
               | The game of handball is quite popular here in the
               | Netherlands, differing from football in using hands
               | instead of feet.
        
               | russellbeattie wrote:
               | >= _US should just adopt the metric system_
               | 
               | I just erased a long rant about this, because no one
               | needs to read another one.
               | 
               | But I'll summarize: Our refusal to adopt the metric
               | system is really a symptom of everything that's wrong
               | with the country today. I blame organized religion.
        
               | silisili wrote:
               | I think at one time, we probably went our own way because
               | we were first or best.
               | 
               | But today it just seems hardheaded. And it's not just
               | metric...you have ANSI vs ISO, electrical systems, 4g and
               | 5g radio bands, etc. With a world population 20 times the
               | US population, I foresee a lot more companies just
               | deciding it doesn't make financial sense to bother with
               | the US market. We already see that with smartphones.
        
               | unity1001 wrote:
               | > I blame organized religion
               | 
               | You have no idea how accurate and profound your statement
               | is. The mid 1800s religious extremism still survives in
               | the US and plagues its public discourse and institutions
               | in the form of anti-intellectualism.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-
               | intellectualism#United_St...
               | 
               | The American anti-intellectualism is far stronger
               | compared to all the forms of anti-intellectualism across
               | the world, and its surprisingly wide-reaching - a lot of
               | the anti-intellectual behaviors of the religious American
               | crowd of 1850s survive today and manifest themselves in
               | different forms. From opposing science to conservatism in
               | silly things like the resistance to the metric system and
               | more.
        
               | gregw2 wrote:
               | French intellectuals want us to divide by the number of
               | fingers we have, because man is the measure of all
               | things. They're also in league with mathematicians and
               | some foreign Arabian number system.
               | 
               | English engineers much prefer a 12-based system where you
               | can design, construct and build easily-- dividing
               | measurements by 2, 3, and 4- where practicality is
               | foremost.
               | 
               | I do think French atheism is at the root of it yes.
               | 
               | P.S. completely trolling/kidding!
               | 
               | P.P.S. Long before the metric system, the French were
               | calling a dozen dozen "grosse". The prejudice goes long
               | back and it isn't from us Angle-ophones!
        
               | tragomaskhalos wrote:
               | You can have the best of both worlds: when I'm fixing my
               | daughter's curtain rail, I use mm to measure distance
               | from the window frame because if I use fractions of an
               | inch I'm far more likely to bugger up the maths. But if I
               | want to tell someone my height, I will use feet and
               | inches as those are more human-scale and convenient than
               | metric. For packaging and products there seems no logical
               | reason to not cite both, although the EU mandated metric-
               | only
        
             | jcul wrote:
             | In Ireland we tend to call it soccer, as people use
             | football to refer to Gaelic (Irish) football.
             | 
             | I'd imagine any country with a pre-existing sport called
             | "football" would tend to call it soccer.
        
               | class4behavior wrote:
               | This needs proper data because a lot of people argue the
               | opposite. The other is then just called gaelic or gaa.
               | 
               | Also, soccer was invented by the English, let the virus
               | spread, then switched back to football.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | talideon wrote:
               | It's contextual. Whichever you mainly play, you call it
               | 'football'. One of the side effects of us having three
               | kinds of football!
        
             | AlchemistCamp wrote:
             | True. It's also called soccer in Australia and in Japan
             | (transliterated as satsuka), too.
             | 
             | You can't really expect people in all places to use the
             | same words for things.
        
             | elcomet wrote:
             | I've seen only opposite. I live in Europe and no European
             | I've talked to cares about football or soccer (and they
             | tend to say "soccer" when they speak to Americans)
             | 
             | But I've heard a lot of Americans say "no it's called
             | soccer" when they heard the term football
        
               | umanwizard wrote:
               | To be fair, I rarely hear the Europeans I know in real
               | life complaining about it either. It seems to be a purely
               | online phenomenon.
        
             | eatbitseveryday wrote:
             | Soccer redirects to "Association football" on Wikipedia. I
             | am American and I find "soccer" to be disingenuous to the
             | sport, since "Football" referring to the ol' hogskin takes
             | priority but is primarily an American sport.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | Nux wrote:
             | It's incredibly annoying to keep hearing this word,
             | "soccer" is an insult, the game/sport is called "football".
        
               | jonstewart wrote:
               | Not in the USA it isn't, and this website is hosted in
               | the USA and it seems likely that at least the largest
               | plurality, if not majority, of readers live in the USA.
        
               | heywhatupboys wrote:
               | > and this website is hosted in the USA
               | 
               | of all the arguments in the world this is the worst one.
               | A nationalist leftover reminding us that while the
               | internet has potential for global unity, someone will
               | forcibly drag it down to worldly borders
        
               | plandis wrote:
               | Nothing screams international unity quite like getting
               | upset some people call a game soccer in their normal
               | language.
        
               | umanwizard wrote:
               | You're the one chiding people for speaking their native
               | language online because it differs from yours.
        
               | nickcox wrote:
               | That's not really how the internet works.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | jzoch wrote:
               | I mean the british invented the word soccer to describe
               | the sport. They also created the sport itself (in its
               | modern iteration and rules).
        
               | josephmosby wrote:
               | The word "soccer" started in England as a slang of
               | "association," which became "assocc" and then "soccer."
               | Americans learned the word from the English.
               | 
               | It may also surprise you to learn that water closets are
               | called restrooms in other countries that speak English.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | noduerme wrote:
               | _!Coge tu futbol!_
               | 
               | Just means "grab your football" in Spain, but means
               | something completely different in Argentina ;)
        
               | amval wrote:
               | I don't think anyone would say that in Spain, as long as
               | they are not having a stroke.
        
               | permalac wrote:
               | Very strong stroke.
        
               | umanwizard wrote:
               | This is similar to getting upset that in various
               | countries an apple is called "pomme", "manzana", "apple",
               | etc. Shouldn't we call it by the name it's called in
               | whichever country it was first cultivated?
               | 
               | In fact no, we shouldn't, because different languages and
               | dialects have different words for things, and that's just
               | a fact of life.
        
               | lmm wrote:
               | If you're speaking a different language, using a
               | different word is fine. But if you presume to claim to be
               | speaking "English", then you should use the word they use
               | in England.
        
             | andypea wrote:
             | Especially as many people in the UK call the game soccer.
             | For these people the term football would be used to refer
             | to (Rugby) football.
        
         | m4tthumphrey wrote:
         | World Cup*
        
           | smcl wrote:
           | I think they're having a bit of fun :)
        
       | plandis wrote:
       | > Messi and his compatriots a 16 percent chance of winning the
       | tournament -- second only to host nation Brazil.
       | 
       | How it started for Brazil was certainly different from how it
       | ended for Brazil in that World Cup.
        
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