[HN Gopher] The UK is wasting a lot of wind power
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The UK is wasting a lot of wind power
        
       Author : RobinL
       Score  : 212 points
       Date   : 2023-01-12 19:08 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (archy.deberker.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (archy.deberker.com)
        
       | adrianmonk wrote:
       | > _evidence from Texas suggests that windfarms do not end up near
       | population centres even in markets with locational pricing and
       | liberal planning laws_
       | 
       | The windy part of Texas is not the part where most people live.
       | The western part of the state and the panhandle are windy but
       | also pretty dry. Most of the people live more toward the central
       | or eastern part of the state where it's greener but less windy.
       | 
       | Pricing incentives may just not be enough to overcome that.
        
       | mikaeluman wrote:
       | The UK seems to have a very interesting situation. We also have a
       | proposal for curtailment in Sweden for wind power producers, but
       | for a different reason.
       | 
       | In the UK, curtailment seems needed due to power transfer
       | capacity issues.
       | 
       | In Sweden it is purely due to grid stability reasons. As wind
       | does not work as a baseload power source this becomes problematic
       | as too much wind power generation can then negatively affect
       | profitability for nuclear and hydro which are baseload power
       | sources.
       | 
       | I would be interested to see how stable wind power production is
       | across all hours and throughout the year in the UK. I imagine
       | it's better than here, but is it good enough to support an
       | industrial nation?
        
         | tupac_speedrap wrote:
         | https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand/percent
         | 
         | It's been very windy recently so we are hitting around 40-60%
         | wind power at the moment but there were moments last year where
         | we were only getting 3% from wind power if it isn't very windy
         | and unfortunately that means using more gas turbines for power
         | which is an expensive source of energy at the moment.
        
       | kerblang wrote:
       | I'll pose the argument that if Texas can, the UK can:
       | https://www.texastribune.org/2013/10/14/7-billion-crez-proje...
       | 
       | And yeah that was a long time ago
        
       | nateguchi wrote:
       | One thing that I find hard to understand is how the electricity
       | prices in the UK have gone up so dramatically (blaming gas
       | prices) when a large amount of the electricity is not generated
       | from gas. Is the price being artificially inflated?
        
         | anamexis wrote:
         | I would imagine that as gas prices shoot up, demand
         | dramatically increases for electricity.
        
         | balderdash wrote:
         | No, first understand the concept of market clearing
         | auctions[1], then understand that the there is a dispatch stack
         | (that looks like something like this [2]), and that gas plants
         | are the marginal producer required to balance the market, as
         | they are not baseload (nukes) and not intermittent (renewables)
         | but are dispatchable (ramp up/down capacity as need to balance
         | the market).
         | 
         | [1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_clearing [2]https://w
         | ww.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1105055/000110465912...
        
         | foota wrote:
         | A couple possibilities. It could be competition from other
         | countries with a different mix (e.g., the price in the UK has
         | to compete with other countries or it'd be exported to the
         | degree possible)
         | 
         | Power is also sold (ok, not sure about the UK) at the market
         | price. So the most expensive generation needed to meet demand
         | determines the market price. So even if gas is a small portion
         | of the generation it could still determine the price.
        
         | cjcartlidge wrote:
         | The price of electricity in the UK is linked to the most costly
         | supply in the entire mix. So if gas is the most expensive then
         | we pay all other power-producing suppliers, regardless of means
         | of generating, the wholesale price we'd pay for gas. It's a
         | strange system.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | It makes sense to extract honest bids. The lower you bid, the
           | more likely you are to be paid. So in the long term, it leads
           | to cheaper prices.
           | 
           | If for example you had a cheap source of gas when others put
           | their price up, it would reward you making that info public.
           | 
           | Short term global fuel price spikes are a weak point, though.
        
         | Manuel_D wrote:
         | There's a couple reasons. A small amount of electricity may be
         | generated from gas, but that small amount is often crucial and
         | in a lot of demand. Furthermore, peaker plants will produce
         | less and less electricity as more renewables reduced their duty
         | cycle. But the overhead cost of maintenance remains: reducing a
         | gas plant from running 10 hours a day to 2 hours a day does not
         | result in a 5x reduction of cost.
        
         | archydeb wrote:
         | Author of the article here
         | 
         | Electricity prices in the UK (and most other places) are set by
         | the marginal unit, which is the most expensive unit that needs
         | to be turned on to meet demand. All other generation for that
         | time period gets paid the same price. The marginal unit in the
         | UK is usually gas, hence the sensitivity to gas prices
        
           | grey-area wrote:
           | Is that a good idea? It doesn't sound very sensible to price
           | everything at the cost of the most expensive unit, why do
           | they do that?
        
             | sampo wrote:
             | How would you decide, who has the right to pay at the cheap
             | price, and who has to pay the expensive price?
        
             | nawitus wrote:
             | The reasoning is that it incentives electricity producers
             | to offer max amount of electricity at low prices without
             | speculating how to maximize profit (as their sell offer
             | will practically speaking have zero effect on the spot
             | price). Nuclear plants, wind power, solar can just offer to
             | sell at everything at around 0c/kWh.
             | 
             | It's claimed that another type of market would cause
             | companies to speculate with their sell offers and thus
             | generate less electricity. It would be interesting to see
             | how this kind of market would work in reality, though.
        
             | tialaramex wrote:
             | What price do you think we should pay for the electricity?
             | 
             | Suppose we insist we'll pay _less_ than the price you agree
             | to sell for. Obviously that 's not a sale, that's robbery.
             | This problem arises even if we agree to pay everybody the
             | average, because some suppliers didn't bid _average_ ,
             | their bid was higher, but we still claimed their
             | electricity, so we are stealing from them.
             | 
             | OK, suppose we decide we'll pay all accepted bids at their
             | bid price regardless of the marginal unit cost. If we do
             | this the supplier is incentivised to _guess_ the bid we
             | will accept, so as to collect the difference between their
             | actual price and the price we 're willing to pay. If
             | they're _very good_ at this, we pay exactly the same as
             | now, but, regardless of whether they 're good at it the
             | grid is significantly destabilized by the increased
             | uncertainty due to lack of efficient price signals.
             | 
             | What other ideas do you have ?
        
           | ta545 wrote:
           | My understanding is most wind was bought at a guarenteed
           | price by the government at the time of construction, so a
           | wind farm producing 1MWh gets paid say PS40 regardless of the
           | cost of electricity on the grid - even if marginal cost was
           | PS20/MWh
           | 
           | As users are then paying PS90/MWh for gas, does the excess
           | PS50 go to the government or to the wind far owner?
        
             | RobinL wrote:
             | See here! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33922390
        
             | tialaramex wrote:
             | The government. The mechanism is called Contracts for
             | Difference, and as the name implies they work by ensuring
             | the _difference_ between an agreed strike price and the
             | actual price - in either direction is paid
             | 
             | However, notice two further considerations:
             | 
             | 1. Such contracts eventually expire. Exactly when varies.
             | But the wind farm is still there, just now the energy price
             | all goes to the operator.
             | 
             | 2. Older government subsidies were not CfD. Ten years ago
             | if you built a wind farm you got a direct subsidy. The CfD
             | schemes come into existence from about 2014. They're one of
             | a small number of _good_ ideas the Tories had. They 're in
             | line with Tory ideology, but they also actually make sense
             | in the world that actually exists.
        
           | luuurker wrote:
           | [dead]
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | The whole system as detailed in the article seems pretty
         | artificial and not great. For some reason prices appear to be
         | set at the national level, ignoring the fact that Scotland has
         | an excess of wind energy. If consumers could see that the price
         | difference on their end, I guess there'd be more incentive to
         | upgrade the infrastructure and get it down to England more
         | efficiently.
        
           | zdragnar wrote:
           | If gas is setting the price as the most expensive form of
           | energy, then it acts as an incentive to build cheaper forms
           | of energy because your margins are that much higher.
           | 
           | Alas, England doesn't allow on-shore wind power, and there's
           | not sufficient capacity (in terms of HVDC lines) to transfer
           | enough power from Scotland down to England to move all of the
           | excess energy.
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | That seems like a good way to spur early development. I
             | wonder, though -- if consumers could actually see the cost
             | benefit of the wind power, might gas have been just priced
             | out of the system by now? (Or relegated to some backup
             | status). (Supposing the transmission infrastructure were
             | upgraded to allow for the higher flow, or England changed
             | its laws to be more in line with economic realities).
        
         | Analemma_ wrote:
         | The marginal price of electricity (i.e. the price of the most
         | expensive source) is what drives the retail cost, because it's
         | a liquid commodity that can't (to a first approximation) be
         | stored. Imagine 90% of your electricity comes from wind and the
         | last 10% has from gas because there is nothing else - the price
         | of electricity is going to equal the price of gas because the
         | wind providers can raise prices until they're just under the
         | price of gas, since there are no other options. The most
         | expensive form of electricity sets the price until it isn't
         | needed anymore and is booted off the grid entirely, but once
         | you cover that last 10% with wind then the price falls
         | dramatically.
         | 
         | In theory this is what we want: the windfall profits on cheap
         | power during periods of expensive energy are supposed to
         | attract the market to build more of these plants and chase
         | those profits, thereby accelerating the green transition. But
         | it's possible what we saw last year was too much, and that the
         | damage to the economy (nothing strangles economic growth like
         | expensive energy) does more harm than this incentive does good.
         | People are talking about renegotiating power agreements in
         | Europe to pay fixed prices for renewables so this wouldn't
         | happen again, but I haven't heard how likely this is to
         | succeed.
        
           | grey-area wrote:
           | Sounds like a dysfunctional market that would be better
           | nationalised and run for the public good.
        
         | kspacewalk2 wrote:
         | You can't base your electricity prices solely or even mostly on
         | an unpredictable source of generation, which is nearly absent
         | one day and generates more power than is needed on another day.
         | Efficient storage is a long-term fix for this, but it ain't
         | here. Natural gas is the most flexible source of on-demand
         | power, so it (disproportionately even to its share of 1/3rd of
         | all generated power) affects consumer electricity rates.
        
         | simongray wrote:
         | The way it works in the EU--not sure if the UK participates in
         | this market still?-- is that every energy source is priced
         | according to the most expensive energy source until demand is
         | covered by supply.
         | 
         | So, for example, on particularly windy days here in Denmark, we
         | pay almost nothing as our entire demand will be covered by wind
         | energy. On other days we might pay a lot since we need to
         | import energy produced from gas or other expensive sources.
        
         | walthamstow wrote:
         | Funnily enough the price the consumer pays right now is much
         | lower than the price of energy because of badly thought out
         | government subsidies
         | 
         | I am in the 95th percentile for income (though not wealth) in
         | the UK and here's my energy bill for December:
         | 
         | Daily grid charges PS20
         | 
         | Energy used @ market price PS315
         | 
         | Truss govt unit price subsidy -PS98
         | 
         | Johnson govt flat subsidy -PS67
         | 
         | Total bill before VAT PS170
        
         | RobinL wrote:
         | It's quite complicated, but there's a good explanation here:
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33922390
         | 
         | (I recently asked the same question!)
        
       | ZeroGravitas wrote:
       | Curtailment, like negative prices, seems like something that it
       | is hard for people to have constructive conversations about.
       | 
       | Probably the cheapest and best option is to build more wind and
       | not care too much if it increases curtailment.
       | 
       | Yes, all the things mentioned should be looked into and done when
       | it makes financial sense but "wasting wind" is much less a thing
       | to worry about than "burning gas", and I'd rather waste wind than
       | waste money.
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | The solution is to upgrade the national grid.
         | 
         | This is needed anyway because it is already maxed out and
         | demand will dramatically increase with the transition to EVs.
        
           | scrlk wrote:
           | Tell that to Ofgem. The latest price settlement for
           | electricity transmission and distribution networks (RIIO-T2
           | and RIIO-ED2) has cut the amount of investment the networks
           | are allowed to carry out.
        
             | mytailorisrich wrote:
             | I bought a petrol generator even before Covid.
        
         | redleader55 wrote:
         | Balancing a nationwide power grid is very complex. Some energy
         | sources can be started and stopped instantly, but are limited -
         | water. Others are plentiful, but unpredictable - wind. Others
         | are predictable, but take a long time to start and stop - gas,
         | coal(several hours), nuclear(1 day to start, fast to stop, but
         | very expensive). A balanced grid will need all of them, will
         | need them in quantities which can cover faults in the big
         | producers(a nuclear reactor makes 700-800 MW). They will need
         | them built in the right place, because while more power cables
         | can be built, you can't transfer a lot of power on very long
         | distances, for cost and grid stability reasons.
        
           | entropicgravity wrote:
           | HVDC is now a thing. Collecting solar in Northern Austrialia
           | and sending it to Singapore over a 3800km long transmission
           | line. Under construction now.
        
             | bamboozled wrote:
             | The project has stalled due to the two billionaires funding
             | the project having a "spat".
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | Thank you. People laughed when I suggested an HVDC link
             | between North America and Europe.
             | 
             | Nordstream 1 _was_ 1222km, and Britpipe now, is 60km
             | shorter.
             | 
             | Boston to Lisbon is 5100km. Churchill Falls (home of a
             | giant hydro dam project in Labrador Canada which got
             | screwed by Hydro-Quebec because the only via transit was
             | through Quebec), would be just under 4000km subsea.
             | 
             | The transit contract expires in 2039 I believe...
        
             | fmajid wrote:
             | There's this incredible project to build a 10GW solar farm
             | in Morocco (1/3 of UK peak consumption) and bring the power
             | to the UK via HVDC cable. Amazingly they estimate only 10%
             | losses despite being over 3800km long:
             | 
             | https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-project/
             | 
             | Surely HVDC links between Scotland and England could be
             | built?
             | 
             | And then there are pumped hydropower storage project like
             | this one with a proposed storage capacity of 200 GWh and
             | 1.5GW of power:
             | 
             | https://www.coireglas.com
             | 
             | In the worst case, couldn't the excess power simply be used
             | in electrolyzers to generate hydrogen? They may not be very
             | efficient but it's better than throwing free energy away.
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | > Surely HVDC links between Scotland and England could be
               | built?
               | 
               | why would this be necessary when the entirely of Great
               | Britain is one synchronous grid?
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | The dumb thing is that electricity transmission and
               | distribution are usually fixed. This already doesn't make
               | sense because it's peak demand that drives the capex.
               | Opex is peanuts.
               | 
               | But the retail buyer doesn't usually see the negative/low
               | electricity prices of high-supply+low-demand time periods
               | for their "inefficient" uses that should still be
               | economic.
        
           | _visgean wrote:
           | > Others are predictable, but take a long time to start and
           | stop - gas, coal(several hours), nuclear(1 day to start, fast
           | to stop, but very expensive).
           | 
           | The start time is long but that does not say much about the
           | overall operations.
           | 
           | > Modern nuclear plants with light water reactors are
           | designed to have maneuvering capabilities in the 30-100%
           | range with 5%/minute slope, up to 140 MW/minute
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Load-following_power_plant
           | 
           | and https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/power-plants-
           | cold-st...
           | 
           | > In France, with an average of 2 reactors out of 3 available
           | for load variations, the overall power adjustment capacity of
           | the nuclear fleet equates to 21,000 MW (i.e. equivalent to
           | the output of 21 reactors) in less than 30 minutes.
           | 
           | https://www.powermag.com/flexible-operation-of-nuclear-
           | power...
        
           | gehsty wrote:
           | You can transmit a lot of power long distances with HVDC
           | systems. 2GW systems are in development (TenneT 2GW platform
           | & 525kV DC cables) & HVDC interconnectors can be several
           | hindered km long...
        
             | midasuni wrote:
             | But it's expensive and takes a long time. The U.K. isn't
             | building enough quickly enough to take benefit of
             | production in the north.
             | 
             | Maybe if variable prices encourages energy intensive demand
             | to shift to Scotland that will help, but that's not quick
             | either.
        
           | paranoidrobot wrote:
           | > Others are plentiful, but unpredictable - wind.
           | 
           | I think it depends on how you define unpredictable.
           | 
           | Wind power forecasting[1] is used pretty extensively as I
           | understand it by all major windfarms.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_forecasting#Unce
           | rta... [2] https://www.cerc.co.uk/forecasting/wind-
           | energy.html [3] https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-
           | systems/electricity/national-e...
        
             | jahewson wrote:
             | I think "intermittent" is what was meant.
        
             | abdullahkhalids wrote:
             | I believe GP meant by predictability "power is available
             | for generation whenever we want it".
             | 
             | What you are saying is that its possible to map out in the
             | future when power is available for generation.
        
           | tialaramex wrote:
           | > but take a long time to start and stop - gas
           | 
           | Despite the insistence that Closed Cycle Gas Turbines can't
           | react quickly, because they're by far the largest component
           | that we _could_ start and stop the UK does in fact very
           | quickly increase and decrease output from the CCGTs. For
           | example this morning 2.79GW at 0600 to 3.89 at 0700.
           | 
           | There are much faster options, batteries, import, even the
           | pumped storage is seconds instead of minutes - if available,
           | but CCGT is just not that slow to change compared to the
           | weather. In that same period the wind power went from 10.9GW
           | to 11.4GW. 500MW is a lot of power but it's not _more_ than
           | 1.1GW
        
             | radiowave wrote:
             | An interesting complicating factor here is that much of the
             | UK's installed base of CCTG stations were built during the
             | 90s with the intention of replacing many of the smaller
             | coal-fired stations, which would typically be doing 2-shift
             | operations (i.e., day and evening). Now, those CCGT
             | stations are increasingly used to counterbalance
             | renewables, and (as you point out) are now running on much
             | shorter cycles than they were designed for.
             | 
             | A report from a few years back (which I'm afraid I've
             | utterly forgotten the source) examined the data on this,
             | and argued that as a result of this changed pattern of use,
             | these CCGT stations were now not achieving nearly the kind
             | of efficiency figures they were designed for, which from a
             | carbon point of view is not good news - we might still be
             | emitting lots of the stuff, but just not getting as much
             | practical benefit from it as we used to.
             | 
             | Now, I'm not meaning to suggest that this is a disaster, or
             | that is somehow invalidates the entire of concept of
             | renewables, but it does point to the need to be careful
             | about _what_ we take to be a useful measure of progress -
             | and that merely the quantity of supply to the grid in GWH
             | isn 't necessarily it.
             | 
             | And the article under discussion here is of course picking
             | away at another strand of this same idea - when we connect
             | these generators together, it gives rise to system-level
             | effects, and we need to be thinking about the outcomes,
             | both beneficial and harmful, in system-level terms as well.
             | 
             | (Edited for spelling.)
        
               | Reason077 wrote:
               | It won't be long (perhaps in the next 2-3 years) before
               | the UK grid will be able to operate for periods without
               | any CCGTs running at all. We've already come quite close
               | this winter, with record low CCGT output and record high
               | wind turbine production.
               | 
               | Wind turbine output, although variable, is also fairly
               | predictable: so good modelling and scheduling should
               | ensure that when CCGTs do operate, they can run as
               | efficiently as possible and not be spinning up and down
               | too frequently.
        
               | midasuni wrote:
               | Only if the interconnects are there. Scotland can operate
               | without gas for periods now, but it can't get enough
               | power where it's needed.
        
           | seb1204 wrote:
           | The statement that we need all of them is not correct. Grid
           | forming inverters and large battery storage will replace gas
           | peak plants in the future. First to go are however the old
           | coal and nuclear plants as they become unprofitable.
        
           | PaulHoule wrote:
           | Nuclear power plants can vary their output faster than most
           | people think, see
           | 
           | https://www.oecd-
           | nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12...
           | ... most of the modern light water nuclear reactors are
           | capable (by design)         to operate in a load following
           | mode, i.e. to change their power level once         or twice
           | per day in the range of 100% to 50% (or even lower) of the
           | rated           power, with a ramp rate of up to 5% (or even
           | more) of rated power per minute.
           | 
           | One trouble is that changing the power output does put stress
           | on components because of thermal expansion and contraction,
           | potentially shortening their lifespan, but it something that
           | can be designed for.
        
             | Gwypaas wrote:
             | The problem is taking the most expensive power source with
             | a large portion of the costs being the initial investment
             | and then not running it 100% is economical suicide.
        
             | Reason077 wrote:
             | Most reactors in service operate at a constant load, and
             | don't vary output according to demand. Certainly in the UK
             | they do not. Sometimes reactors are operated for extended
             | periods at reduced load for various reasons (eg: to
             | conserve fuel and extend the time before a refuelling
             | shutdown is required), but they don't vary output day-to-
             | day.
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Ramping it up is likely the problem, since all plants can
             | reduce power on a dime by just varying the generator coil
             | current I think.
             | 
             | You could just keep it spinning nonstop without a load I
             | suppose, but for anything but nuclear it's not gonna be
             | economical.
        
               | Reason077 wrote:
               | A nuclear power plant can't just "keep spinning without a
               | load" - all that energy has to go somewhere! If a nuclear
               | plant is disconnected from the grid (tripped), the
               | nuclear reaction must be stopped (eg: by inserting
               | control rods into the core).
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | Of course it can, just short the generator coils and you
               | have a free brake. The turbine should then still have
               | resistance and shouldn't overspeed. Or just idk, use it
               | to pump some water in a loop or discharge through some
               | resistors. Getting rid of power isn't that hard if you
               | want to do it. Simplest solution would I suppose be to
               | just have an outside radiator that brings the steam to
               | cooling tower levels of manageability so you can throttle
               | the turbine with just a valve.
               | 
               | The thing is, they don't really want to do it if they can
               | save fuel by shutting down.
        
               | Reason077 wrote:
               | > _" just short the generator coils and you have a free
               | brake"_
               | 
               | You'll soon end up with a burning/melted generator.
               | 
               | > _" pump some water in a loop"_
               | 
               | OK, but you're going to need huge pumps (1000+ MW!).
               | Expensive.
               | 
               | > _" or discharge through some resistors"_
               | 
               | Again, you'll need extremely large resistors, and a way
               | to dissipate an awful lot of heat. We're talking about a
               | huge amount of energy here!
        
               | moffkalast wrote:
               | Pump water in a loop through a radiator to cool the
               | braking generators and the resistor bank :P
               | 
               | Could try also melting some salt on the side.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | sadly, my searches for "gigawatt resistor" and "gigawatt
               | electric load" have been fruitless.
        
           | Reason077 wrote:
           | > _" (a nuclear reactor makes 700-800 MW)"_
           | 
           | 1.6 GW per reactor for the latest ones under construction
           | (Hinkley Point C) and in development (Sizewell C). Each site
           | has 2 reactors for a total of 2 x 2 x 1.6 GW = 6.4 GW.
           | 
           | Although this is largely just replacing the UK's existing
           | fleet of reactors, almost all of which will have shut down by
           | the time Hinkley Point C comes online. Of the current 5
           | operating UK nuclear power stations, only Sizewell B is
           | scheduled to operate beyond 2028.
           | 
           | > _" They will need them built in the right place, because
           | while more power cables can be built, you can't transfer a
           | lot of power on very long distances"_
           | 
           | One of the reasons offshore wind has been so economic &
           | successful in the UK is they can usually plug in to existing,
           | redundant transmission lines left behind by decommissioned
           | coal and nuclear power stations, which are often on the
           | coast. It's relatively cheap to connect to the grid when the
           | infrastructure is already there waiting: you just need to
           | build the cables from the turbines to the shore.
        
           | jamil7 wrote:
           | I always thought gas was quite quick to start which made it a
           | good complement to renewables.
        
             | sbradford26 wrote:
             | It depends on the type of natural gas plant. Some of them
             | are designed for efficiency which takes longer to spin up
             | and down while some are peaker plants which can spin up in
             | a matter of seconds/minutes.
        
             | fundatus wrote:
             | Yep, 15 minutes to full load is not uncommon with gas
             | plants.
        
             | tomatocracy wrote:
             | The quickest gas generation (gas engines) can go from cold
             | start to fully ramped up in 4-5 minutes. A typical
             | OCGT/CCGT is a bit slower and has a higher start cost (and
             | a CCGT won't reach peak efficiency for hours). Pumped
             | storage hydro takes 20 seconds or so.
             | 
             | However, turning generation on or off isn't the only way
             | the grid is balanced in the short term - turning up/down
             | tends to be a big part of it too and most conventional
             | generation can do that faster (sometimes a lot faster) than
             | startup/shutdown.
        
         | debacle wrote:
         | I've worked in curtailment. It's a fraught shell game.
         | 
         | I think it's a great idea, but the system needs better
         | controls. Many companies sign up for curtailment for e.g. heat
         | related reasons who have heat based energy needs. When they get
         | the call, they eat the fine and _still benefit_ because the
         | fine is less than the benefit for enrolling in the program.
        
         | avianlyric wrote:
         | From the article
         | 
         | > the National Grid pays the windfarms to turn off, and pays a
         | (typically gas powered) alternative generator, closer to the
         | demand, to turn on.
         | 
         | Curtailing wind means paying someone else to generate that
         | energy in the "right" location, which usually means burning
         | gas. So all the extra wind being built isn't reducing amount of
         | gas being burned, it's just increasing the total cost of
         | electricity.
         | 
         | > Probably the cheapest and best option is to build more wind
         | and not care too much if it increases curtailment.
         | 
         | We can build all the wind we want, but if connected to
         | consumers by nothing more than a long extension lead that
         | barely run a kettle, then it's totally useless. The wind needs
         | to be located so the energy generated can actually be
         | transported to end users. Curtailment is basically a direct
         | measure of the amount of wind we've built, that can't actually
         | be used. Building more isn't helpful in the slightest.
         | 
         | The article certainly doesn't advocate for reducing the amount
         | of wind built, quite the opposite, they just point out we need
         | it built in the right places so we can actually use the energy
         | produced. Rather than built bunch of wind turbines that will
         | forever be pointed out of the wind.
        
         | benj111 wrote:
         | But that presupposes we can actually supply enough electricity
         | to where it's needed. We already hitting the limits, thus the
         | curtailment and burning gas. Adding more capacity unless it's
         | in the right place doesn't solve the issue.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | The example given was christmas day, when most industry
           | stops, when the wind was blowing strongly. (UK heat is mostly
           | gas, not electric).
           | 
           | It's probably more typical for all available wind to be used
           | and then gas burned on top of that.
           | 
           | Building more wind, even in curtailed areas will probably
           | help those cases, even if it leads to more curtailment on
           | other days.
           | 
           | It would be nice if their neat interactive graphs also
           | clearly marked the "we burnt gas because we didn't have
           | enough wind turbines" so we can balance the two costs
           | correctly.
           | 
           | Right now it's like a medical test that only reports false
           | negatives and ignores false positives (or vice versa). Trying
           | to reduce one to zero without reference to the opposing
           | problem is probably making the other one worse.
        
             | ta545 wrote:
             | At some point there will be more bang for buck to increase
             | the north/south capacity. The price they're talking seems
             | to be very low compared with other infrastructure. Sure it
             | takes 6 years to build two 2GW links, so build 4 or 6 in
             | parallel.
             | 
             | What amazes me is the footnote that the total spending on
             | net zero is just PS50 billion. Lets assume it's more
             | realistically PS100b. That's less than the cost of HS2.
             | It's less than the cost of decommissioning the existing
             | civil nuclear plants when they reach their end of life. Its
             | the cost of 12GW of nuclear power generation. It's 14
             | months energy subsidies.
        
         | cm2187 wrote:
         | The problem is that there was no wind in the coldest days of
         | December when we needed electricity the most. Building more of
         | something that goes to zero when you need it doesn't help. With
         | huge storage capacity, maybe, but even the author of the
         | article doesn't seem to think storage is particularly
         | practical.
        
         | SamBam wrote:
         | I'm not sure I understand. Sure, letting turbines spin and not
         | use the power, while burning extra gas, isn't worse for the
         | environment than just burning gas in the first place (though
         | it's significantly more expensive to triple-pay for the
         | energy), but it's better is to turn that unused power into used
         | power.
         | 
         | The article wasn't decrying the existence of excess wind power,
         | it was trying to describe the best solutions for using that
         | power.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | The article says we pay three times, curtail wind and then
           | burn gas. Which is bad.
           | 
           | But all the solutions are aimed at reducing the curtailment
           | of wind. Rather than reducing the gas burnt.
           | 
           | If the money saved by building more wind (or solar) and not
           | having to burn gas saves more money then who cares if more
           | wind is "wasted"?
           | 
           | It would be nice to use every last drop, but I dont want to
           | actually spend money to achieve that goal when it could be
           | used to e.g. build yet more wind, and burn even less gas.
        
             | stdbrouw wrote:
             | Again, that's not what the article is about. If more wind
             | power gets built in Scotland to serve needs in England,
             | then increasingly more of that output will have to be
             | curtailed because we simply can't move the energy to where
             | it needs to be, to the point where the only thing adding
             | more wind farms would do is to provide a tad bit more
             | energy when there's hardly any wind to distribute. In all
             | other scenarios, having more capacity will _not_ translate
             | into not burning gas!
             | 
             | The article describes an entirely different problem than
             | "oh no, it's very windy/sunny and we don't know how to use
             | all of this energy" which is not solved with better
             | distribution, but with storage and demand regulation.
             | 
             | And actually, the article is in complete agreement with you
             | that we needn't be overly worried: curtailment isn't the
             | end of the world, but we can solve it and it turns out that
             | some of those solutions are cheaper than just building more
             | farms, or would incentivize building those farms closer to
             | where the energy is needed.
        
               | ZeroGravitas wrote:
               | The article leaves an impression that curtailment is a
               | problem that is costing us money. See most other comments
               | here as evidence of that.
               | 
               | I'm explicitly calling for more curtailment, because it
               | isn't a problem and doesn't need to be solved.
               | 
               | Burning fossil fuels is a problem to be solved. High
               | electricity prices are a problem to be solved.
               | 
               | Both of those problems can be solved by _building more
               | wind power_ , which almost inevitably increases the
               | amount of wind curtailed.
               | 
               | To repeat, curtailment is not a problem and does not need
               | to be solved. It's a normal part of running a renewable
               | grid. Any low cost renewable plan will have some
               | predicted degree of curtailment, because it's the
               | cheapest way to meet our energy needs.
               | 
               | See:
               | 
               | "Reframing Curtailment: Why Too Much of a Good Thing Is
               | Still a Good Thing"
               | 
               | https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2022/reframing-
               | curtailment...
               | 
               | > Video Explains How Having More than Enough Renewable
               | Energy Capacity Can Make the Grid More Flexible
        
               | midasuni wrote:
               | How would building 100 times as much wind power in
               | Scotland reduce gas usage in England/wales without
               | building more north/south interconnects?
        
               | consumer451 wrote:
               | > To repeat, curtailment is not a problem and does not
               | need to be solved.
               | 
               | Agree 95%. The only valid question involving curtailment
               | is how much must occur at each individual turbine or farm
               | to make it a bad investment.
        
               | avianlyric wrote:
               | Curtailment is never a bad investment. If anything it's
               | fantastic for wind investors. Someone is paying you twice
               | for _not_ using your assets.
               | 
               | You get all the revenue, and have zero wear and tear on
               | your equipment. In an extreme scenario you could even be
               | paid for _not turning on_ non-functional equipment. What
               | a fantastic deal.
        
               | avianlyric wrote:
               | > The article leaves an impression that curtailment is a
               | problem that is costing us money.
               | 
               | That's because curtailment does cost us money. Someone's
               | paying those wind operators to turn off the farms. We
               | literally pay money to wind farms to explicitly make them
               | produce _nothing_.
               | 
               | How do you reconcile these two statements?
               | 
               | > High electricity prices are a problem to be solved.
               | 
               | > I'm explicitly calling for more curtailment, because it
               | isn't a problem and doesn't need to be solved.
               | 
               | Curtailment cost money, you still need pay the wind
               | operators to the energy you told them _not_ to produce,
               | plus pay someone else to produce the energy that's now
               | not being produced by wind. That cost ultimately ends
               | driving up the price of electricity.
               | 
               | You want to reduce the cost of electricity, a good start
               | would be _not paying people for electricity that can't be
               | used_.
               | 
               | > Both of those problems can be solved by building more
               | wind power, which almost inevitably increases the amount
               | of wind curtailed.
               | 
               | Only if you can transport the energy. Otherwise you're
               | just building turbines that can't be used, and paying for
               | the privilege of _not using them_.
        
             | hedora wrote:
             | The article is saying that more transmission lines were
             | needed to avoid wasting 9b pounds of electricity last year.
             | An already approved grid upgrade will cost 4b pounds, and
             | would mostly be adequate.
             | 
             | Something had to get built first, and I guess they picked
             | the wind turbines. This seems like everything working as
             | intended to me.
        
         | mattcoles wrote:
         | I understand that curtailment is needed to incentivise private
         | businesses to invest in wind when the output and demand can't
         | be correlated, but if the government owned the wind farms then
         | it wouldn't matter if we wasted right? We could just always be
         | overproducing and wouldn't have to pay for it.
        
           | morepork wrote:
           | Assuming a competitive market, the outcome is essentially the
           | same right? If the government builds more than would be
           | economic for a private company they're paying the extra
           | through construction costs/maintenance/financing that they
           | would have been paying to incentivise the extra turbines.
        
             | nicoburns wrote:
             | > the outcome is essentially the same right?
             | 
             | Nope, the difference can be found in the profits made by
             | the company that does in fact own and run the wind farms.
             | The government could capture that should it wish to build
             | them itself. This has been a hot topic recently with regard
             | to fossil fuel energy generators who have been making large
             | profits (in the billions) at the expense of people's energy
             | bills.
        
           | adolph wrote:
           | > We could just always be overproducing
           | 
           | Depends on what you mean by overproducing. The energy put
           | into an electrical grid must be balanced by demand or bad
           | things will happen. I think the second answer in the below
           | StackExchange is a good description.
           | 
           | https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/117437/what-.
           | ..
        
           | jthirkle wrote:
           | The UK government? Owning things? Surely you can't be
           | serious...
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | alkjsdlkjasd wrote:
             | They seem to be re-nationalising the railways:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_British_Railways
             | 
             | Maybe not: "The Transport Secretary announced on 19 October
             | 2022 that the Transport Bill which would have set up GBR
             | would not go ahead in the current parliamentary session."
        
               | Beltalowda wrote:
               | It just got delayed AFAIK.
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | since covid it has been essentially nationalised: the
               | government took on the risk and any pnl
               | 
               | the franchising sysem won't be coming back
        
               | smcl wrote:
               | I'm sure TransPennine Express and Avanti West Coast
               | passengers would love that but it's not quite true (yet?)
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | it is true
               | 
               | TPE is still under covid arrangements and Avanti West
               | Coast is under a new style management contract as I
               | described above
               | 
               | switching out top level boss doesn't suddenly improve
               | underlying problems with the service
               | 
               | in the UK this is almost always the infrastructure, which
               | has been nationalised since 2002
               | 
               | the government (DfT) had more control over the railways
               | under the franchising system than they had when BR
               | existed
               | 
               | almost all of what the hated "train companies" consists
               | of is putting a guy in the cab, the rest is down to the
               | DfT
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | The actual railways (that is, the tracks and the
               | stations) are already government owned anyway (Network
               | Rail).
               | 
               | Network Rail sells access to the network to train
               | operating companies, which are private (though often
               | state-owned by other countries).
               | 
               | The network was originally built by private companies
               | until nationalisation in 1947 (railway companies were
               | bankrupt after WW2). It was private for a while in the
               | 90s, then went bankrupt and renationalised in 2002. Seems
               | to be quite the money pit!
        
             | anotheraccount9 wrote:
             | "wind power"...
        
         | dahfizz wrote:
         | > I'd rather waste wind than waste money.
         | 
         | But doesn't wasting wind waste money if we have to pay so much
         | for curtailment?
        
         | ajsnigrutin wrote:
         | You have two problems:
         | 
         | 1) a lot of wind means there's too much power... that has to be
         | used somewhere, that's why you have negative prices, to get
         | someone to take that power off the grid and use it for
         | something, sometimes useless, and someone has to pay for that
         | 
         | 2) no wind means you still need gas, hydro, nuclear etc.
         | powerplants, because you need power even when there is no wind
         | and sun, so you need all the power generating capacity covered
         | even without wind
        
         | ErikVandeWater wrote:
         | > I'd rather waste wind than waste money.
         | 
         | How is paying wind farms hundreds of millions of pounds to turn
         | off wind generation not wasting money?
        
           | mjw1007 wrote:
           | In a sense: because all it does is move money from one place
           | to another.
           | 
           | That's very different to wasting money in a way that actually
           | uses up physical resources or people's time.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | Because, overall the wind power is the cheapest energy source
           | available, and has been for a decade (recently overtaken by
           | solar in some markets).
           | 
           | Something that is cheap can have some percent wasted and
           | still be cheaper overall than more expensive options.
           | 
           | Focussing only on the waste without that bigger context is at
           | best a false economy, at worst fossil fuel promoting
           | propaganda.
        
             | avianlyric wrote:
             | What good is cheap if you can't use it?
             | 
             | Why would I want to pay for cheap wind energy I can't use,
             | and also pay for gas energy that I can use? Unless the cost
             | of the wind is PS0, paying for wind in addition to gas is
             | just a waste of money.
        
           | briffle wrote:
           | you should see how much per MW/h it costs for power from a
           | "Peaker" power plant.
           | 
           | Looks like $150-$198/MWh
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant
        
         | jonatron wrote:
         | I like negative prices, I got paid to heat my hot water tank
         | and have underfloor heating on last night for 1.5 hours.
        
           | InCityDreams wrote:
           | Paid for 1.5 hours underfloor, or just on for 1.5?
           | 
           | *also where you are would be interesting. There's a big
           | difference say between Scotland and Croatia.
        
             | jonatron wrote:
             | I'm in London, electric prices last night:
             | https://nitter.nl/pic/orig/media%2FFmNAukVXgAEF6Ar.jpg
        
               | KaiserPro wrote:
               | which supplier are you with?
        
               | jonatron wrote:
               | Octopus energy, on the agile octopus tariff:
               | https://octopus.energy/agile/
        
               | archydeb wrote:
               | For the brave!
               | 
               | But seriously (author of article here) I think that agile
               | tariffs and more demand flexibility are probably a big
               | part of the solution
        
               | KaiserPro wrote:
               | I have the luxury of a 13khw battery, so it _might_ make
               | sense. But I suspect that when I need to use the grid
               | will be uber peak PS1.04 per kwhr.
               | 
               | Edit: for those who are curious, here is some data on
               | prices over the last month: https://agileprices.co.uk/
        
               | midasuni wrote:
               | I guess you can't have two suppliers, one on a
               | traditional fixed contract and one on the octopus stuff,
               | and choose the best one
        
       | londons_explore wrote:
       | If the UK were ruled, and all decisions made, by a benevolent
       | dictator, then the solution to this problem is easy. Consider
       | every option of where to build the wind turbines, and where to
       | build power cables, add up the cost of every option, and choose
       | the cheapest (environmentally and/or monetarily) that gives
       | everyone the power they need.
       | 
       | An ideal market would produce the exact same result right?
       | 
       | Well not quite... And this is a classic example.
       | 
       | With the current policy of location-independent markets, wind
       | producers build in the best spots, and don't care about the
       | massive expense (to the grid operator) of moving the power south.
       | That isn't the ideal solution.
       | 
       | With the new proposed policy of per-location markets, the grid
       | operator 'makes money' by moving power from places of high
       | generation (low prices) to places with high demand (high prices).
       | 
       | But wait... That isn't the ideal solution either. The grid
       | operator has an incentive to maximize their own profits, and if
       | they ship too much power from north to south, then the price
       | difference will be lowered, and their profits will decrease. So
       | they will underbuild deliberately.
       | 
       | But wait you say - this is an ideal market, so there is no
       | monopoly grid operator. In this ideal market, there are many grid
       | operators, each competing to move power from the north to the
       | south, and if one operator deliberately underbuilds, then another
       | will build more to capture that profit. The end result is cables
       | will keep being added till the money to be made equals the cost
       | of the cables...
       | 
       | And that _is_ equal to the ideal benevolent dictator solution!
       | 
       | But... That assumes a cable costs a certain PS amount per MWH
       | transferred. But real cables have efficiencies of scale - one
       | large cable is more money efficient than many competing small
       | cables.
       | 
       | And considering that, you're back to the single-cable-operator
       | problem. In the market, they are a monopoly and will underbuild.
       | If they aren't a monopoly, whoever has the biggest cable takes
       | all the profit, and becomes a monopoly. And if you artificially
       | force there to be 10 small companies competing, then there will
       | be 10 small money-inefficient cables.
       | 
       | There is no perfect answer, except a (non existent) benevolent
       | dictator!
        
         | ta545 wrote:
         | Well there was a benevolent dictator in the recent past (upto
         | 1995), when the grid was publicly owned.
        
           | olivermarks wrote:
           | Agree, but there have been some very expensive local
           | authority disasters around solar.
           | 
           | https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-chauffeur-the-leaked-tape-
           | an...
           | 
           | Publicly owned old technology is very different to attempts
           | to publicly develop next generation power, which tends to
           | require brave entrepreneurs historically.
        
         | beepbooptheory wrote:
         | You really don't see _any_ middle ground here? I feel like a
         | rationally and centrally planned infrastructure not based on
         | market incentives is not that hard to imagine, whatever your
         | political beliefs are, why resort to some kind of philosophical
         | thought experiment of the dictator?
        
           | InCityDreams wrote:
           | And who would have thought that any dictator/ political party
           | (either lefty or righty, it doesn't really matter) couldn't
           | come up with a decent solution ["vote for us, we will solve
           | your problems"] like they always seem to promise? After 10+
           | years....
        
       | Zamicol wrote:
       | TL;DR: "The UK is wasting a lot of wind power" because of high
       | long distance transmission costs.
        
         | singhrac wrote:
         | That's not an entire summary, I think. The lack of local (or
         | nodal, as it's often called in the US) pricing means that
         | there's comparatively little incentive to build new
         | transmission. The UK is not a large country, and we routinely
         | build much larger transmission lines (if I'm not mistaken, the
         | UK is the geographic size of Texas, where the exact same
         | problem is being solved effectively).
        
           | Zamicol wrote:
           | My comment was somewhat of a critic of the terse headline.
           | Adding a small amount of information to the cryptic headline
           | removes a lot of perceived mystery.
           | 
           | Your statement answers the question, "why is long distance
           | transmission price high?"
        
       | bhewes wrote:
       | The UK grid needs spot instance pricing like the cloud.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | dclowd9901 wrote:
       | I have a tangential question (and I truly do not mean to be
       | provocative with it, just curious): Has anyone put any effort
       | into figuring out how much impact we have on air movement in
       | general with windmills? Like, is there a scenario where we could
       | negatively impact the environment by capturing "too much wind"?
        
         | grey-area wrote:
         | This is an interesting study in that topic, I would have
         | thought the answer is no to your question, but possibly a very
         | large wind farm could change wind velocity/temp and thus have a
         | knock on effect.
         | 
         | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0406930101
        
       | pleb_nz wrote:
       | So does NZ.... Man this place blows especially in Canterbury
       | where I am. Nearly every single day it's windy enough that it
       | annoys and sometimes ruins being outside. I must say 3 to 4 times
       | a week 'f** this windy hole' to someone.
       | 
       | Sitting in the roaring 40s trade winds why doesnt NZ have more
       | wind generation is baffling.
        
         | teruakohatu wrote:
         | The reason that all or almost all of the power you use is
         | renewable. Adding more renewable generation in the South Island
         | won't help the coal generation in the North Island.
         | 
         | Right now, investment in infrastructure needs to be made to
         | move power from Manapouri to the North Island.
         | 
         | As to why we are not replacing the 1.8m tons of coal we import
         | from as far away as Indonesia with wind or solar in the North
         | Island? I don't know.
         | 
         | Edit: If you take a look here, as of an hour ago we are
         | generating 90+% renewable, but with 192mw of coal generation.
         | Wind is generating at a fraction of capacity and this probably
         | accounts for the coal.
         | 
         | There is hydro capacity but that might be from dams far south.
         | 
         | https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/live-system-and...
        
           | ta545 wrote:
           | It looks like there's just one HVDC interaliand link capable
           | of sending 1.2GW, and dating back to 1964.
           | 
           | Why not install 7 more? That would allow the entire current
           | demand for the entire of NZ to come from the south island.
           | 
           | 10M USD per km, average 800km from centre of south island to
           | Auckland, $8b in total. 43,000 GWh generation per years,
           | that's just 2.5c per kWh over 10 years on your bill.
           | 
           | https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Indicative-capital-
           | cost-...
        
             | teruakohatu wrote:
             | > Why not install 7 more? That would allow the entire
             | current demand for the entire of NZ to come from the south
             | island.
             | 
             | There is a very high bar for building infrastructure
             | accross the Cook Strait due to environmental concerns.
             | 
             | The problem is a lot of our power is far south, not center
             | of the South Island, and our costs to build are likely
             | multiples of what is costs overseas.
        
             | morepork wrote:
             | The current HVDC link has had a lot of upgrades from the
             | original 600MW to 1200MW now, and there are proposals to
             | upgrade it further, but not nearly to the scale you
             | suggest, as there just isn't the need for such levels of
             | transmission.
             | 
             | Unless there were plans for major new hydro schemes in the
             | South Island there's no particular reason not to just build
             | new generation in the North. There is ample wind and
             | geothermal in the North Island.
             | 
             | This would all change if the Tiwai Pt aluminium smelter
             | were to close as that would leave a huge amount of
             | generation that would need to go north to be used.
        
           | cycomanic wrote:
           | Yes NZ is baffling. NZ is a place which could easily be 100%
           | renewable with very little investment. There is plenty of
           | wind, sun and the large hydro power station could serve as
           | backup/storage. However I see dramatically less windfarms and
           | solar installations than in a place like Germany which has
           | much less sun and wind.
        
         | morepork wrote:
         | There is a lot more wind power than there used to be. Getting
         | wind farms consented is hard because people always seem to come
         | out of the woodwork and complain and ruining the scenery, or
         | the noise, or whatever.
         | 
         | But I think the bigger issue is that due to the amount of wind
         | that has already been built, peak demand happens on cold still
         | nights in winter. Building more wind without storage doesn't
         | help there, and that's when they're forced to fire up all the
         | gas and even coal turbines at Huntly.
        
         | Manuel_D wrote:
         | NZ already generates most of electricity from hydropower and
         | geothermal, so wind isn't really necessary:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_New_Zeal...
        
         | tablarasa wrote:
         | Not to be pedantic, but the roaring 40s are by definition not
         | the trade winds. The trade winds are easterlies- they originate
         | from the east and blow towards the west. The "roaring 40s" are
         | westerlies, flowing in the opposite direction and categorically
         | not the trades. Incidentally, NZ is an amazing place to take up
         | wind sports, so I'm with you on the larger point.
        
         | antod wrote:
         | There is more capacity on the way, but planning/approving these
         | things is slow. The beauty of wind power in NZ is that the more
         | you have spread around in different places, the more more hydro
         | lake capacity you can keep up your sleeve for when it is
         | needed.
        
       | nfcampos wrote:
       | This reminded me of
       | https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/mining-for-cryptocurr...
       | 
       | (I know this isn't storage, jk)
        
       | stuaxo wrote:
       | Our system favours England over scotland, with the national grid
       | charging Scotland much more to move energy around.
       | 
       | With all the electricity generated there it should be cheaper -
       | this could incentivise accelerating the electrification of trains
       | in Scotland, currently only 25% of the network.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_electrification_in_Sco...
        
       | chris222 wrote:
       | Very good article. As far as the options presented I think
       | transmission lines are still the best bet, along with storage.
       | 
       | Storage can come in many forms including at a customers residence
       | via batteries or thermal storage. Not all of these options need
       | to be cycled daily to make financial sense. In the U.S. we have
       | an insane number of people that maintain days worth of storage as
       | fuel for their generators only to be used infrequently when the
       | power goes out.
        
       | bjourne wrote:
       | The North Sea Link is 720 km long and costed only PS1.6 billion
       | and took only three years to lay:
       | https://www.4coffshore.com/news/north-sea-link-starts-operat...
       | So a new 440 km long cable for PS3.4 billion done in 2029 seem
       | like a crummy deal.
        
       | jayelbe wrote:
       | A very interesting and well-written article.
       | 
       | I'd love to subscribe and see what else the author has, but oddly
       | their blog has no RSS feed. Oh well!
        
         | archydeb wrote:
         | Sorry about that! I gave up on RSS with the death of Google
         | Reader. A Twitter follow is your best bet :)
        
       | fiftyacorn wrote:
       | I was hearing one of the things they are doing is pumping water
       | up the hills at hyrdo powerstation's to reuse at peak periods
        
         | seb1204 wrote:
         | Yes this is what is commonly referred to as pumped hydro or
         | often only hydro
        
       | jl6 wrote:
       | That 70% energy loss in round trip conversion to hydrogen doesn't
       | look so bad if the alternative is 100% loss by not running the
       | turbines.
        
         | epistasis wrote:
         | That really depends on the capex of the hydrogen equipment. It
         | has to be extremely low to justify not curtailing.
        
           | jl6 wrote:
           | True.
           | 
           | I suspect that grid-scale electrolysis is near the very
           | bottom of the economies-of-scale-S-curve and will have a
           | promising future not just in power2gas2power, but also in
           | producing the green hydrogen inputs needed for synthetic
           | hydrocarbon fuels for hard-to-electrify applications like
           | aviation.
        
           | kokanee wrote:
           | Technically it depends on the levelized cost of hydrogen,
           | which encompasses capex, opex, and a slew of other relevant
           | inputs. Similar "levelized cost" formulas are used throughout
           | the utility sector to make these kinds of decisions; what
           | makes green hydrogen unique is simply that it is undergoing a
           | spike in research and development right now that is
           | drastically changing some of the inputs to the LCOH equation.
           | 
           | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/46267.pdf
        
       | londons_explore wrote:
       | So why are these undersea cables so expensive?
       | 
       | Lets do a little Math... A cable that moves 4GW of electricity
       | 450 km is say +-1 million volts and 2000 amps.
       | 
       | Assuming we want no more than 3% losses in the cable at full
       | load, then each conductor needs to be 40mm diameter aluminium, at
       | a total material cost of $3.6M
       | 
       | To insulate a 1 million volt cable, we need 100mm of PVC - total
       | cost $60M.
       | 
       | And we'll obviously need a few mm of steel + more PVC on the
       | outside for protection from the environment.
       | 
       | And now add in the manufacturing cost, and the cost to get it
       | into place...
        
         | z991 wrote:
         | > and the cost to get it into place...
         | 
         | Your comment reminded me of "No Time on Our Side," a book about
         | a submersible laying cable near the UK that sunk after a hatch
         | failed during recovery operations. The author (who was a pilot
         | in the submersible) details the incredible rescue effort to
         | bring them back to the surface alive over a period of about 3
         | days.
         | 
         | A wonderful book and also one that made me appreciate how hard
         | it is to lay cable (in some places).
        
         | zabzonk wrote:
         | and the need for two of them in parallel to make them redundant
         | from trawler and similar damages.
        
         | KaiserPro wrote:
         | and the control hardware. The things that stepup/down are not
         | cheap.
        
       | mariambarouma wrote:
       | this is a remarkable achievement in itself.
       | 
       | Years ago, renewables opponents kept making baseless claims that
       | no grid would be stable with large amounts of renewables. It's
       | now end of 2022 and for this year we've seen on multiple
       | occasions power grids running perfectly fine on very large
       | amounts of renewables with very little gas.
       | 
       | Success, I guess.
        
         | mikaeluman wrote:
         | Did you look at the situation in Germany? The foremost country
         | on renewables...
         | 
         | And brown coal.
        
           | bamboozled wrote:
           | Ok so what's the difference ?
        
       | ed25519FUUU wrote:
       | California is facing a similar issue dealing with its solar duck
       | curve[1], where prices essentially go negative during periods of
       | peak solar generation.
       | 
       | As far as I know residential PG&E customers can't buy energy in
       | spot market prices, or else there could be some innovative
       | arbitrage opportunities, like only running bitcoin miners when
       | power is cheap.
       | 
       | 1. https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/confronting-duck-
       | curve-...
        
         | sh1mmer wrote:
         | If only there were some actually useful use of excessive energy
         | that weren't mining bitcoin.
        
           | Symbiote wrote:
           | One example is producing hydrogen from water with excess
           | power. It can then be added to the natural gas network, or
           | used by trucks or trains, or stored for a power plant.
           | 
           | Orkney is trialling this.
        
         | Dma54rhs wrote:
         | Spot prices are the best in order to save the planet so to
         | speak. People will waste energy when it's cheap aka pay with
         | their wallets. A lot of EU household's pays market price for
         | the electricity.
        
       | neilwilson wrote:
       | Sounds like a job for the Terraform Industries product from a few
       | days ago
       | 
       | https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2023/01/09/terrafo...
        
       | iamkoch wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | oliwary wrote:
       | Here is what I do not understand about these kinds of dynamics:
       | Are they not the perfect way to encourage the creation of energy
       | storage companies and technologies?
       | 
       | It seems like there is a massive opportunity to purchase energy
       | when it is cheap or even negatively priced, figure out some way
       | of storing it, and then sell it back once the price is higher.
       | Over time, this could stabilize the grid and encourage
       | development and scale benefits in energy storage.
       | 
       | Where are these companies? Are the technologies not yet efficient
       | enough, even when the price of electricity is negative? Or is
       | this technology being deployed already?
       | 
       | EDIT: Well turns out this is covered in the article. Hoping there
       | will be more development in this direction in the future!
        
         | Raydovsky wrote:
         | Because storage is hard and expensive.
         | 
         | Generating energy is easy (with renewables).
        
         | aliqot wrote:
         | > figure out some way of storing it
         | 
         | My hypothesis is this being the issue.
        
       | xiphias2 wrote:
       | One more thing that can be used for soaking up rarely generated
       | free energy are cheap old inefficient Bitcoin miners.
       | 
       | There are many places already using it for this. Bringing Bitcoin
       | miners to a place at this point is just shipping a container.
        
       | fencepost wrote:
       | I think one of the most important elements is buried -
       | electricity pricing is uniform across the entire UK. That seems
       | nuts to me, and incentivizes building in locations that are less
       | useful - it's likely cheaper to build in Scotland, higher
       | production from more wind, you get paid _more_ (for expected
       | yield plus curtailment apparently), _and_ you have less wear on
       | the equipment when you adjust to lower output.
        
         | Symbiote wrote:
         | At least this shows different prices in different regions, but
         | I'm not sure why. The article contradicts it.
         | 
         | https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/r505_deemed_ra...
        
         | TylerE wrote:
         | Is the UK not a unified grid? Most of the US is. A kwh is a
         | kwh.
        
           | toast0 wrote:
           | The US runs three major grids: East, West, and Texas. There's
           | interconnections, but capacity is limited. Sounds like the UK
           | is similar here with the bottleneck between Scotland and
           | southern England.
           | 
           | Within the US grids, there's really subgrids with
           | interconnection and bottlenecks, too, but those interior
           | bottlenecks aren't brought up as often as say overnight wind
           | production in Texas being over local demand as well as
           | interconnect capacity.
        
           | zabzonk wrote:
           | england and wales are run by national grid, who also have a
           | huge us operation - scottish operations a bit less clear
        
             | scrlk wrote:
             | National Grid ESO are the system operator for the GB grid.
             | 
             | National Grid Electricity Transmission operate the
             | transmission network in England and Wales. The transmission
             | network in the south of Scotland is operated by SP
             | Transmission; in the north of Scotland, it's SSEN
             | Transmission.
        
           | timerol wrote:
           | Even in the parts of the US that are unified grids, a kWh is
           | not a kWh. Where you live determines how expensive your
           | electricity is. Compare Cambridge, MA
           | https://electricityrates.com/compare/electricity/02139/ with
           | Philadelphia, PA
           | https://electricityrates.com/compare/electricity/19101/.
           | About twice as expensive in MA.
        
             | TylerE wrote:
             | GP was (I think) talking about what the grid pays the
             | plants, not what consumers pay the grid.
        
       | davedx wrote:
       | I know quite a bit about most of the things discussed in the
       | article from having worked for a renewables company and yet I
       | learned quite some new bits I didn't know about, for example the
       | intra-UK submarine HVDC connectors (and their eye watering cost).
       | Not a very long article but packed with clearly written and
       | valuable information. Great stuff
        
         | vardump wrote:
         | We need to figure out how to reduce long distance power
         | transfer.
         | 
         | Imagine a global power distribution network, the entire world
         | could be 100% solar & wind. Perhaps one day...
        
           | Atheros wrote:
           | Imagine someone invents low cost high temperature
           | superconductors which enable fusion reactors, to much
           | fanfare. Until everyone slowly realizes that we can use those
           | same conductors to balance low cost electricity globally for
           | less money.
        
           | Dma54rhs wrote:
           | Not going to happen for geopolitical reasons ever, unless we
           | have a one king for the whole planet.
        
             | Atheros wrote:
             | Why couldn't countries just keep dirty coal generators and
             | coal delivery infrastructure mothballed such that if power
             | delivery from the other country is cut, just spin up the
             | coal plants for a while until it gets sorted out. The cost
             | of all of that may be less than the cost savings of
             | importing electricity from a far-away country.
        
       | nerdbert wrote:
       | I don't live in the UK nor work anywhere near the energy sector,
       | and yet I found this a really fascinating, clear read that opened
       | my eyes to many issues I'd never considered before. Thanks.
        
       | user568439 wrote:
       | Seems like factoring the location is the easiest solution. If
       | energy were much cheaper in Scotland, some factories would move
       | there, more people would move there as well and you would not
       | need to transport so much energy across the country.
       | 
       | But I guess there are more things to consider than the energy in
       | that decision.
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | I'd also love to have real-time pricing as an option on the
         | consumption side.
         | 
         | It's so dumb that we have "smart" fridges that can tweet, but
         | not smart to avoid their energy use during peak hours. It's a
         | thermal battery!
        
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