[HN Gopher] Netflix Has Created a Self-Fulfilling Cancelation Lo...
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Netflix Has Created a Self-Fulfilling Cancelation Loop with Its New
Shows
Author : mikenew
Score : 52 points
Date : 2023-01-16 20:59 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.forbes.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.forbes.com)
| redm wrote:
| The worst part of this is the statement that 1899 was canceled. I
| just finished it and was looking forward to the second season. I
| guess there's no way in Netflix to know if a show is ever coming
| back.. Will there ever be another Black Mirror season.. who
| knows..
| jameshart wrote:
| A lot of people seem to assume a network-TV economic model
| applies to netflix, where 'ratings' are inherently good, and high
| rated shows beget renewals, and so on...
|
| But, Netflix subscriptions are much more in the 'gym membership'
| economic model.
|
| People watching shows on Netflix costs Netflix money. They would
| much rather take your money and have you _not_ watch anything.
|
| The ideal Netflix subscriber is someone who won't cancel because
| they think they might want to watch something some time, but who
| whenever they browse the shows decides not to bother starting a
| show right now.
|
| This strategy seems optimized for maximizing that audience.
| runamok wrote:
| I know what you are saying but from what I understand the
| network costs per user are pretty negligible. I think its more
| that if a show is not a hit and does not become a big draw for
| users Netflix will nix it especially because the way most deals
| are done subsequent seasons cost them much more than the first.
|
| I have read the above in the past but can't find a good source
| at present as I am on mobile so apologies.
| webwielder2 wrote:
| If this trend results in more miniseries versus long-winded,
| open-ended season after season that go nowhere, I'm all for it.
| DalekBaldwin wrote:
| I think this trend is why they've gone all-in on sex-on-the-
| beach shows and true crime docuseries. One season can easily be
| self-contained, and if the viewer gets another, it's just a
| nice bonus.
| Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote:
| Even a switch to closed-form seasons would be good. Complete
| arc in one season. Then do that again for another season and
| another.
| ceejayoz wrote:
| I'm all for focused shows - The Good Place is a nice example of
| one that didn't overstay its welcome - but there are a lot of
| _great_ shows that wouldn 't survive the "canceled after the
| first season unless metric x is met" climate.
|
| Star Trek: The Next Generation serves as a good example; the
| first season was _rough_. Didn 't hit its stride until the
| second, when Riker grew the beard.
| jbaber wrote:
| This is so true that "Growing the Beard" is the opposite of
| "Jumping the Shark" in TV tropes:
|
| https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GrowingTheBeard
| devnullbrain wrote:
| A quirk of human psychology is that we value ongoing storylines
| as if they were finished storylines. When we watch a Lost or
| read a Song Of Ice And Fire, we relate the twists and turns to
| finished stories we already know - or even to real life. We
| take it as a given that the plot thread spun in episode 3 will,
| somewhere, have a satisfying conclusion. The method that put
| the gun on the wall must satisfy physical and logical laws. So
| we become invested.
|
| As a result, writers are incentivised to write convoluted,
| twisting, mysterious threads.
|
| They're not required to finish them.
| twiceaday wrote:
| I don't think this is much deeper than modern media abusing a
| strong expectation set-up by past media. The short-term
| mysteries are only as interesting as the audiences
| expectation that they will be resolved in an interesting way.
| We are trusting the narrator not to let us down. But of
| course it is much simpler to create mystery than to resolve
| it, and whenever the resolution is bad that trust gets
| chipped away. I think this trust is a limited resource and it
| feels like too many modern stories are chipping away at it.
| At least thats the case for me. I've become jaded about this
| kind of breach of trust. The shows hope that I am not
| attentive enough and keep around my positive memories of the
| mystery after observing the awful resolution. No. I go out of
| my way to taint past memories and call the experience bad
| overall.
| andrejguran wrote:
| https://archive.ph/YffFM
| scohesc wrote:
| Someone more TV-knowledgeable can answer this for me or provide
| further clarification for me, but are there parallels between the
| Netflix show methodology and Anime?
|
| From my small amount of experience absorbing the anime world, it
| seems like a lot of studios find a manga/source material, then
| cram all the storyline into one season as the funding might not
| be there, etc. etc.
|
| I wonder if the motivations in the Anime world to put out one
| season are the same or similar to the Netflix show motivations -
| find a source material or writer who has a decent story, crank
| out a 1-season concept and if it takes off, you have a money-
| maker that will likely last a few years with more
| seasons/spinoffs.
| layer8 wrote:
| For manga-based anime, there often isn't quite enough material
| yet to fill two seasons/cours, so they cram it into one, trying
| to fit some sort of story arc. There is certainly also the
| factor of risk reduction, only plan one season initially in
| case it isn't successful. One difference from Netflix shows is
| that anime is usually part of a media mix (manga, light novels,
| merchandise, games, songs/music, physical media sales,
| sometimes musicals and other events), so even if it's just one
| season with an open-ended storyline or a premature pseudo-
| ending, it serves to promote the other media of the franchise.
|
| See also this answer on stackexchange:
| https://anime.stackexchange.com/a/55361
| stackedinserter wrote:
| Maybe these shows are being cancelled because they're not good
| enough and people don't watch them.
|
| "Netflix adaptation" is already a meme these days for a reason.
| acdha wrote:
| > Maybe these shows are being cancelled because they're not
| good enough and people don't watch them.
|
| How do you square that with the people saying they would have
| watched it but never got the chance? It seems unlikely that a
| few weeks is enough to exhaust the pool of potential viewers,
| especially for a company which was once famous for monetizing
| the long tail.
| xboxnolifes wrote:
| For the same reason that is brought up on every survey-based
| research discussion thread: what people say and what people
| mean/do are not the same.
| MBCook wrote:
| A month or so ago I saw a great set of tweets guessing at what's
| going on.
|
| Residuals.
|
| (EDIT:
| https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterClines/status/16104085799406...)
|
| After the initial window they have to pay residuals every time
| people watch the episodes. As a series goes on, more people might
| start watching if it's popular. The people who are already
| watching may re-watch it to get ready for the new season. All of
| that means paying for residuals.
|
| But if your shows are flash in the pan, that's not as much of an
| issue. When Netflix cancels a show what are the odds a bunch of
| people are going to start watching it four years from now?
|
| And what happens if you constantly drop new shows and heavily
| promote them, hiding what a person was already watching? They may
| go to that new show and stop watching the old one? The window is
| new on the new show.
|
| Why release all episodes at once? So people watch it fast, not
| over enough time for residuals to be big.
|
| It seems like they are incentivized to keep people from re-
| watching existing things.
|
| This may not actually be what's going on. But it seems to fit
| weirdly well.
| at_a_remove wrote:
| * * *
| mindcrime wrote:
| I was thinking the exact same thing a couple of days ago, when I
| heard about 1899 being cancelled. The thing is, I totally wanted
| to watch that, and it was on the "short list" of things I'd
| planned to start watching soon. But now that I know that it's
| cancelled, and especially knowing that it ends with a
| cliffhanger, there's no reason for me to _ever_ bother starting
| it.
|
| Look, I know there are financial considerations at play for
| production companies and all. But at some point you gotta be
| willing to either commit and do something all the way, or not do
| it at all. This half-assing isn't helping anybody.
|
| This isn't just Netflix either. My big fear now is that the
| "Wheel of Time" series will be cancelled before the entire story
| is told. Which makes me very reluctant to start watching it. And
| if other people are also reluctant to start it for the same
| reason, that's going to hurt the viewership... which makes it all
| the more likely to be cancelled! You can't win.
| kneebonian wrote:
| Never half-ass two things, whole-ass one thing.
|
| Ron Swanson, Parks and Recreation
| _moof wrote:
| Fortunately with Wheel of Time the story has already been told.
| You can go read it whenever you want. And although I'm not
| normally a "the book was better" type, for this reader, the
| show really is disappointing.
| mindcrime wrote:
| I'm on the last book literally right now. So yeah, I'll have
| read it either way. But I was kinda sorta thinking that a
| nice way to celebrate finishing the books would be to jump
| over and watch the show. I've heard mixed reports on how good
| (or bad) it is though, so I dunno.
|
| Anyway, WoT in particular aside, the basic principle is the
| same: if you're going to take on producing an epic work, I'd
| _really_ prefer that you commit to actually finishing it.
| That 's true pretty much regardless of what
| franchise/property we're talking about.
| acdha wrote:
| That was especially weird to do right around the holidays. Some
| people are single & stuck in the airport but an awful lot of
| people are not looking to binge a show during peak family
| season. I was planning to try it this month but...
| treeman79 wrote:
| For some reason the first half of Voltron season 1 is missing
| on Netflix. They produced the show. Confusing.
| fizx wrote:
| Wheel of Time was made by a team that respects the source
| material about as much as the team that ruined the last seasons
| of Game of Thrones. Unfortunately, you're not missing much.
| mindcrime wrote:
| Fair enough. But I'd at least like them to finish it, so that
| in the off chance I like what they've produced, I'll have a
| complete product to watch. It would suck to get really
| engrossed in it and then find out they quit halfway through.
| :-(
| iforgotpassword wrote:
| I somehow managed to watch 1899 right on release and really
| enjoyed it, so am really bummed. But a lot of people around me
| just haven't gotten around to it because of the holidays, and
| now say the same thing as you do.
|
| And I've heard some fans of DARK saying they just couldn't get
| into it because it was too slow, but I really liked that style
| of storytelling.
|
| I just wish everybody and their mom would put on that show now
| even if they don't actually watch it, so maybe the numbers
| change and they reverse their decision. I actually took this as
| the final straw to cancel my Netflix subscription and will only
| ever sign up again if that show gets finished.
| schneems wrote:
| > It's now created a system where creators should be afraid to
| make a series that dares to end on a cliffhanger
|
| I don't see that as a bad thing personally. But I've 100% avoided
| watching some series that I know have been canceled.
|
| I'm wondering what a better model might be? Maybe air the pilots
| and let the people decide?
| jon-wood wrote:
| The better model in my view is for screenwriters to write
| series that stand in their own right. It should be very
| apparent at this point that shows get cancelled, often after
| one or two seasons, so plan for that. Don't set up a six season
| story arc while failing to tell a worthwhile single season
| story.
| watwut wrote:
| Yeah. The cliffhangers are not even there for viewer pleasure.
| They are just there to force you to watch next series so that
| you learn how it ends.
|
| Getting rid for them is not exactly a loss.
| lofaszvanitt wrote:
| Someone maybe read too much mysticism and think they get a hard
| on (power?) by trashing their previous works, watching as no
| matter what they do with it, an established franchise with a
| strong fan base will sell no matter the content.
|
| Same patterns emerge in gaming. Strong, very good gaming studios
| with established franchises suddenly come up with terrible
| sequels with mind boggling narrative, borderline idiotic,
| superficial characters and plot. And all of these took 5+ years
| to be made :DDD.
| linuxhansl wrote:
| Am I the only one who does not like episodes and prefers movies?
|
| One the one hand there is time for development that a movie would
| not have, on the other hand it often feels drawn out.
| green-salt wrote:
| I'd really rather have a 'complete' story that was thought out
| more than a week in advance like some shows.
| harrisonjackson wrote:
| If you like 1 season shows and don't mind subtitles, then Viki
| (streaming service) has a lot of kdramas that have a complete 1
| season storyline. They've even remade some American shows with a
| single season.
| jmyeet wrote:
| Netflix has fallen into the Google trap.
|
| Google famously kills projects and half-asses things. This
| destroys user trust. Eventually people won't use your new thing
| because they don't want to become dependent on something that's
| just going to languish before being cancelled.
|
| Larry Page's "more wood, fewer arrows" idea never really took
| hold.
|
| Apple OTOH is very good (mostly) at focusing on fewer things and
| seeing them through. Apple Pay is a prime example of this. Every
| month there are more banks and financial institutions onboarded.
|
| But this hurts Netflix on both sides. The obvious one is for
| viewers. It's becoming increasingly less likely that I become
| invested in some Netflix series knowing it's likely fate. Even
| the otherwise excellent Ozark's 4th season felt rushed, like they
| were trying to cram 2-3 seasons of storylines into one season.
|
| HBO has generally been very good at seeing things through. There
| are notable exceptions (eg Rome, Deadwood, arguably even
| Westworld although that one is complicated).
|
| But it hurts Netflix on the creator side. If you're an Aaron
| Sorkin type shopping around your series and you have a lot of
| suitors, why would you choose Netflix when you fear it'll get
| cancelled prematurely. Now you can write in commitments into
| contracts. This happened with House of Cards, initially two
| seasons guaranteed IIRC. But not everyone has that leverage.
|
| It seems like Netflix has fallen into the trap of optimizing for
| the wrong metrics, specifically short-term new customer signups.
| Maybe they look at customer retention too? Maybe customers don't
| actually care about this? I honestly don't know.
|
| I do think they're hurting their brand though.
| tapoxi wrote:
| This is ultimately why I stopped watching television. I want to
| experience the whole story, and I want to be know it ties
| everything up and has a satisfying ending.
| raffraffraff wrote:
| I'm the opposite. I prefer to wait until a whole series has
| finished and then watch the seasons that were decent, and screw
| the rest. I watched 2.5 seasons of ~Tits And Dragons~ Game Of
| Thrones, and honestly, that was 1.5 seasons too many. I'm also
| perfectly happy to rewatch Firefly knowing that they never
| finished it of with some bullshit final series or movie* that
| tried to tie it up with a bow, and ultimately fail.
|
| *I know
|
| Edit: awww, hn doesn't have strike through markdown support :(
| phpisthebest wrote:
| That is what made netflix popular in the beginning before their
| "orginals" phase
|
| You could watch an entire TV Show, Back to back with no
| interuptions, or waiting a week.
|
| A Already made show would drop on nextflix, 5 seasons worth all
| at once, and "binging content" was born...
|
| Sad they do not know their own market anymore. Who ever running
| netflix these days is terrible
| 988747 wrote:
| "Binge watching" is also weapon of Netflix demise: they drop
| the whole season at once, you watch it in a day or two, and
| then you forget it, and you never log in to Netflix again for
| several weeks. HBO dropping one episode at time creates a
| feeling of anticipation, and gives you a reason to keep your
| subscription always active, because every couple days there
| will be something new for you to watch..
| phpisthebest wrote:
| Not me, I do not watch any streaming show until the entire
| season at a minimum has dropped
|
| I also do not subscribe to HBO Max in part because of that
| sylens wrote:
| I wonder if they would ever experiment with a lower cost
| membership that only has X hours of streaming per month. My
| favorite part of Netflix (and other streaming services that
| drop entire seasons at once) is that I can fit my viewing
| into my schedule. I may watch two episodes in one week
| because I have time that week, and then not watch anymore
| for two weeks as I'm busy with other things, only to return
| and watch 3 episodes at the start of the next month. A
| lower cost plan with a cap on hours would actually work
| well for me.
| mindcrime wrote:
| _then you forget it, and you never log in to Netflix again
| for several weeks._
|
| But unless you actually cancel your subscription, that's
| not a bad thing for Netflix. All the time you're not in
| there watching content is time you're not consuming
| bandwidth or CPU cycles, etc. It's kinda like a gym: the
| perfect customer is somebody who signs up for a membership,
| and never shows up again, while keeping their membership
| active.
|
| Now I know some people do the whole "binge for a while,
| cancel my subscription and come back in a couple of months
| thing." A good friend of mine actually does that. But I
| suspect most people are too lazy to bother, and keep their
| account active even when they aren't actively watching
| something. But maybe that's just me projecting? Hmmm...
| kelseyfrog wrote:
| I'm largely the same. I've recentered my life in a way where I
| rarely encounter groups where the main topic is "are you
| watching the latest thing," and the consequence is being free
| from show FOMO.
|
| Now I judge shows based on how they end. I don't care if I'm
| years late to watching it. If it's good it will age well, and
| if it's not then it won't. I've been duped too many times with
| Lost and GoT standing out in particular.
|
| If I kept watching the new stuff, I'd be a sucker.
| eddie_catflap wrote:
| I agree. Honestly if I'm browsing for something new and it has
| several seasons it puts me off even starting. I don't want to
| invest that much time into something when the quality is pretty
| much guaranteed to drop as time goes on.
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