[HN Gopher] EV batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid sto...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       EV batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand as
       early as 2030
        
       Author : rntn
       Score  : 139 points
       Date   : 2023-01-17 20:21 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | throwawaaarrgh wrote:
       | We're nowhere near close to home charging for the number of EVs
       | estimated by 2030. Go ask around, very few organizations are
       | working on it compared to public chargers. Apartment managers and
       | condo associations aren't demanding them and only homeowners have
       | a say, after they pay for the upgrade. Not to mention, the power
       | companies _hate_ the idea. They won 't even let people with solar
       | panels feed their excess power to the grid.
       | 
       | We would need a federal mandate to get there, and I don't see it
       | happening.
        
         | martinflack wrote:
         | > They won't even let people with solar panels feed their
         | excess power to the grid.
         | 
         | Is that true? If so, TIL...
        
           | chucksta wrote:
           | Depends on your state
           | https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/03/which-
           | states-o...
        
           | burkaman wrote:
           | It is not true, but they do make it very hard in some places
           | and as a group utilities do kind of hate the idea. Almost all
           | states require net metering, which what allows people to sell
           | their solar to the grid, and there is some federal regulation
           | too
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_Act_of_2005).
           | Despite these requirements most utilities make it pretty hard
           | to set up.
        
             | throwaway892238 wrote:
             | florida's been trying to kill net metering for years:
             | https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-
             | politics/2021/12/20/fl...
             | https://www.wfla.com/news/politics/power-bills-could-rise-
             | ev... they even allegedly derailed a democratic election
             | using a fake candidate:
             | https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-florida-
             | power...
        
             | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
             | I opted NOT to sell my excess to PNM (New Mexico), because
             | the agreement allowed them to claim my 6.7kW array as part
             | of their own progress towards renewable conversion.
             | 
             | What I didn't understand was that I ended up with an even
             | better deal! I get back the excess kW/h on a 1:1 basis.
             | This is much better "pricing" than I would have received if
             | I had sold it for cash.
             | 
             | Granted this model only works if there's a part of the year
             | when you produce more than you need and another part of the
             | year where you produce less. Since we heat more or less
             | exclusively with electric air source heat pumps, but need
             | no heat or a/c during summer, this works extremely well for
             | us.
        
               | burkaman wrote:
               | What's wrong with them counting your solar as part of
               | their conversion? Nothing wrong with you declining if the
               | price isn't high enough, but if they're paying someone
               | for solar power, whether it's an individual or a company,
               | I think they should count that as part of their renewable
               | portfolio.
        
           | cinntaile wrote:
           | This has to do with lack of demand during high PV production.
           | This excess energy still has to go somewhere, it doesn't just
           | disappear. This costs the grid operators money, so either
           | they charge you or don't let you feed the excess power to the
           | grid.
        
             | nawitus wrote:
             | Are you saying the price is negative during high PV
             | production? In sane markets like Finland solar panel owners
             | need to pay for generating electricity to the grid if the
             | price is negative (which is it sometimes).
        
       | ratboy666 wrote:
       | The elephant in the room -- unfortunately, there cannot be enough
       | batteries made to support this. That is why I invested in Tesla
       | -- don't care about EVs, but the battery play is good! Backup
       | power for personal/family use? I use a Firman generator - 20
       | litres of fuel per day of operation at load. (here, $30
       | Canadian). Since the generator was only $300 and load is 3000W,
       | this is a much better deal for me. And... at the rates being
       | bandied about here... if anyone EVERY offers, say, $1/KWh - That
       | grosses me $70 per $30 of gas. I would take that incentive. Note
       | that the generator would pay for itself every 10 days by my
       | reckoning.. And the recycling of the motor is already a solved
       | problem. So... $1/KWh is way too much. $0.50/KWh is also too much
       | (and note that my gasoline pricing is around $1.50/litre at the
       | pump -- $22.41 US for 20 liters ...
       | 
       | So the actual amount should be around 32 cents per KW/h... 50
       | cents work fine because that factors in "wear and tear" -- do
       | those numbers work for batteries? Of course, buying electricity
       | is 7 to 15 cents/KWh here.
       | 
       | I would want LiFePo4 for this application; at current rates, a
       | 10KWh battery runs $10,000. From that, I determine that I can
       | "just" buy much more effective gas/natural gas/propane burning
       | generators. Something like the Generac 6551. Natural gas is
       | .23/c3 or around $1 for one hour of 7000W operation... actually
       | looking competitive with electricity grid rates (except wear&tear
       | on the generator).
       | 
       | Note that I do have a hybrid car. So, not "anti-electric" by any
       | means. I just don't think that enough batteries can be made for
       | this application. Certainly NOT be 2030 (6 years? Oh really?)
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | > unfortunately, there cannot be enough batteries made to
         | support this.
         | 
         | Why do you say this? It contradicts what everyone in the
         | industry thinks.
         | 
         | There are no material shortages for the materials used in
         | lithium batteries, and there are several alternative
         | chemistries under active development, that are at least two of
         | cheaper, more durable, or higher power-to-weight than lithium.
        
         | reportingsjr wrote:
         | > I would want LiFePo4 for this application; at current rates,
         | a 10KWh battery runs $10,000.
         | 
         | Where in the heck did you get that number? 10kWh of LiFePO4
         | batteries is more like $3k at current prices:
         | https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-lifepower4-lithium-battery-48...
        
       | joshe wrote:
       | It feels like an iceberg has been slowly turning over for the
       | past 10 years, and is now flipping quickly.
       | 
       | Economic growth is now more correlated with carbon reduction than
       | increase.
       | 
       | The useful work of preventing coal plants is over and we need to
       | switch gears to get home appliances, ev cars, solar, wind and
       | transmission out as quickly as possible. Environmental groups and
       | common knowledge haven't caught up yet, but the fastest route to
       | a low carbon future is a lot of factories producing ev cars,
       | appliances, and batteries.
       | 
       | There are many zombie environmental groups that will continue to
       | fight against anything humans try to change about the built
       | environment, but over time the astonishingly good economics will
       | move them to the side.
       | 
       | One of the nice thing is they don't really have much power other
       | than stopping solar farms and stopping clean energy transmission.
       | For 80% of the things we need to do, it's just people going to
       | home depot.
       | 
       | And in many ways old school environmentalists are already losing
       | the policy wars, the inflation reduction act is chock full of pro
       | growth, pro abundance carbon reduction.
       | 
       | If you are looking for startup inspiration...
       | 
       | Super powerful battery augmented induction stove, hotter than
       | gas: https://www.treehugger.com/impulse-electric-cooktop-gets-
       | a-b...
       | 
       | In window heat pump 80% more efficient at heating and cooling.
       | Helps with the big ticket/renter problem for heat pumps.
       | https://www.gradientcomfort.com/
       | 
       | The coming abundance of energy...
       | 
       | Economic growth and solar:
       | https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/157068814444987...
       | 
       | Solar economics: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-
       | excited-about-so...
        
         | Timshel wrote:
         | Meh when I see that we are barely able to stop the growth of
         | fossile fuel usage (
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_cons...
         | ), I'm not sure why peoples are so optimistic.
         | 
         | And it's not like Enr and other suggestion you propose will not
         | need insane amount of ressource extraction.
         | 
         | Heat pump usually need a well insulated home, just isolating
         | all the needed house in the next 25 years is probably a
         | challenge itself between cost and having enough workers. And
         | it's not like there was an article last week on electrician
         | shortage ...
        
       | microdrum wrote:
       | EVs with BrakeFlow resistive protection against thermal runaway
       | also will have a big impact -- allowing for faster discharge into
       | the grid. Increasing cRate for grid services can "bring forward"
       | the point in time -- so 2030 could even happen a few years sooner
       | if these high performance batteries from Enovix come to the EV
       | market soon.
        
       | RetpolineDrama wrote:
       | I assumed this meant selling EoL EV batteries back to providers
       | who convert them into grid storage.
       | 
       | An EoL EV battery still has a decade or more of life as a grid-
       | scale battery.
        
         | sp332 wrote:
         | It includes both. But since EV manufacturing capacity is
         | ramping up so fast, the amount of battery capacity in cars is
         | going to be a lot larger than the amount in EoL car batteries
         | for a while.
        
       | bottlepalm wrote:
       | This is already happening today in California, a couple gigawatts
       | of batteries are charged during the day and released in the
       | evening to offset peak demand.
       | 
       | https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html
        
         | yodsanklai wrote:
         | This seems high(?): for comparison, average power of French
         | solar panels is 1.6GW (and a bit more for wind power).
        
           | p1necone wrote:
           | The population of California is ~ half that of France, and
           | presumably California sells power to neighbouring states too,
           | so it doesn't seem that out of whack.
        
       | cschmid wrote:
       | The Taiwanese scooter company Gogoro recently announced something
       | similar: Their scooters come with swappable batteries that you
       | rent. The swapping station they have throughout the city are
       | basically walls full of batteries. Since the company owns all the
       | batteries, they can then use them to provide power to the grid
       | during peak load.
        
         | trompetenaccoun wrote:
         | That makes more sense as it can be better planned based on
         | projected demand. They also have more batteries than customers.
         | With individual car owners, they often can't charge when it's
         | convenient for the grid because they drive their car and need
         | it when they need it.
        
       | fit2rule wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | Am4TIfIsER0ppos wrote:
       | Imagine the government draining your tank at the gas station
       | instead of filling it.
        
         | TruthShare wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
         | iso1631 wrote:
         | Imagine the gas station selling you a tank of gas for $10 and
         | buying it back for $15 later in the day, all while your car
         | sits on your driveway
        
           | ThunderSizzle wrote:
           | It will never work that way, except for the lucky few.
           | 
           | Have you ever tried selling books back to the school store?
           | They'll buy it from you for $10 when you paid $100 for it.
           | Same thing will happen for this.
        
             | _Algernon_ wrote:
             | The difference is with the book your alternative is to not
             | sell it back and getting 0$, assuming you've extracted all
             | value.
             | 
             | In the case of the car, you can choose to not sell it, and
             | use it for driving instead.
             | 
             | The incentives are completely different. You're comparing a
             | scenario where they have you by the balls with a case where
             | both parties are more or less equally powerful market
             | participants.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | It's trivial to prevent the power company from doing this
             | -- just unplug your car.
             | 
             | They can't force anybody to participate, so if they want
             | participation they'll have to pay and pay well.
        
               | olivermarks wrote:
               | But then you won't be able to drive your electric car
               | because it's not charged up...
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | eddhead wrote:
       | How did BritishVolt go bankrupt then?
        
         | amalgamated_inc wrote:
         | Slowly, then suddenly.
        
         | Reason077 wrote:
         | Manufacturing battery cells is very energy intensive, so I'm
         | guessing that the recent sky-high UK energy prices spooked
         | their investors and made UK battery manufacturing look
         | unviable.
         | 
         | Something like NorthVolt, on the other hand, works because they
         | have access to reliable low-cost hydro in Northern Sweden.
        
       | pandama wrote:
       | Please say a prayer for the people of the Congo who will have to
       | mine the cobalt we want.
        
       | PeterCorless wrote:
       | Considering that most "EV batteries" are actually just smaller
       | batteries glued together to bigger cells, modules and packs, I
       | don't think this is as much of a win as people think it is.
       | 
       | It's like saying "We can green the planet with Duracells."
       | Ignoring what's _in_ the batteries or what it takes to
       | manufacture them. Or how they degrade over time.
       | 
       | We may need to look at hybrid battery solutions with alternative
       | energy storage systems, like graphene supercapacitors.
       | 
       | https://www.laserax.com/blog/ev-battery-cell-types
        
         | karamanolev wrote:
         | It's not as black and white. EV batteries are getting produced
         | and will get produced quite a lot it seems. We'll be using them
         | for transportation, but if we can _also_ use them for short-
         | term grid storage, that certainly improves the sustainability
         | math. Using things better is a win, so let 's do it.
         | 
         | We can't green the planet with Duracells, but it's certainly
         | better than producing and not fully using the Duracells.
        
         | ericd wrote:
         | Sorry, how is the size of the individual cells relevant? Big
         | cells are just the same sorts of cathode/anode sheets, but in
         | larger rolls, no?
         | 
         | Duracells are typically single-use alkaline, so I'm also not
         | sure why that comparison makes sense?
        
       | bluefirebrand wrote:
       | Love subsidizing public infrastructure directly as well as paying
       | taxes!
        
         | meltyness wrote:
         | It's possible for market forces to drive batteries out of
         | consumer reach, and then you'll own the car and rent the
         | battery. Is that better?
        
           | bluefirebrand wrote:
           | Not even a little bit!
           | 
           | Renting sucks!
        
           | criley2 wrote:
           | I'm all for battery rental because I think battery-swaps
           | instead of recharging is the future. The model already works
           | in a number of other vehicle sectors.
           | 
           | 30 minute quick charges are not the future
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | Gotta make sure those giant energy companies keep making more
         | profit than ever before!
        
         | comte7092 wrote:
         | I too love living in a society.
        
         | sp332 wrote:
         | As this gets more popular, I guess net metering will be offered
         | less and less. But you should still get some credit for
         | supplying electricity to the grid.
        
           | function_seven wrote:
           | On the contrary, I would expect to be paid higher rates for
           | the energy I'm supplying to the grid than those I paid to
           | charge it in the first place. Otherwise, what's the point?
           | I'm not going to buy a kilowatt-hour high, then sell it low.
           | 
           | Only way these grid balancing schemes work is if the pricing
           | is real-time, and I have an opportunity to supply marginal
           | peak demand at rates that are higher than what I paid to
           | charge (while still being lower than what peaker plants would
           | cost)
        
             | gopalv wrote:
             | > I would expect to be paid higher rates for the energy I'm
             | supplying to the grid than those I paid to charge it in the
             | first place
             | 
             | The Tesla VPP[1] model was 1$ KWH to send it back, better
             | than Net Metering which should have paid only 42c.
             | 
             | However, this was coordinated with PGE to match the lack of
             | production (in advance, which is its own miracle) and
             | unlike a car, the battery doesn't change locations or need
             | to be unplugged at random.
             | 
             | [1] -
             | https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/powerwall/own/tesla-
             | pge...
        
             | jlmorton wrote:
             | It's worth pointing out that Tesla's Virtual Power Plant in
             | California -- which is used primarily in emergency events
             | -- compensates owners $2/kWh. [1]
             | 
             | Obviously, that rate is not going to be sustainable for
             | routine energy storage, but PG&E is already compensating EV
             | owners a substantial amount for peak electricity needs.
             | 
             | [1] https://electrek.co/2022/09/02/tesla-virtual-power-
             | plant-gro...
        
         | zahma wrote:
         | This is the future, like it or not. There's a lot of energy
         | tied up in batteries, or at least their can be. And until we
         | solve the problem of harnessing intermittent energy sources for
         | when they aren't generating energy, we aren't going zero
         | emissions.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | meltyness wrote:
       | That this is still only an academic rumbling / home of the
       | future[0] talk speaks volumes about how out-of-touch global
       | finance remains.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/tech-news-briefing/tapping-
       | elec...
        
       | mikaeluman wrote:
       | Did I read too sloppily or did they simply not discuss actual
       | availability, that is supply, of metals needed?
        
       | martini333 wrote:
       | I would not sell cycles from my EVs NMC battery.
        
         | maliker wrote:
         | Hmm, but how often and for how much? If you could get $500 to
         | discharge 50% would that make it worth your while? If you only
         | did it once a month? There are price situations like that on
         | the grid already.
        
           | oittaa wrote:
           | As others have mentioned power companies in California pay a
           | lot for virtual power plants when the demand is high. If
           | power companies can avoid running an expensive peaker plant
           | once a month, everybody wins.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | Texas was paying $9/kWh for electricity during their
           | blackouts. If you had 72kWh of electricity in your Tesla
           | that'd be a nice payout...
        
       | JakeAl wrote:
       | I wouldn't take that bet until solid state batteries get better.
       | This is a disaster in the making.
        
       | lja wrote:
       | I think EV owners would need to find some level of compensation
       | for the additional cycles they would incur. Electric vehicles are
       | expensive because of the battery so deteriorating the life of one
       | of the most costly parts of the car doesn't feel like a great
       | solution.
        
         | UniverseHacker wrote:
         | We also need EV designs where the batteries are modular and
         | easy to swap out. I wouldn't be interested in a deal where I
         | was compensated financially for quickly wearing my non-
         | replaceable car battery out, because the battery wear alters
         | the usability of the car, e.g. I might find I can only take my
         | family on shorter trips than planned, if my battery is now 80%
         | of what it would have been.
         | 
         | I also wouldn't want the battery level timed around the grid vs
         | my own transportation needs. What if there is suddenly a heavy
         | demand on the grid, and now I can't take my sick family member
         | to the hospital, because the charge was sold to the grid?
        
         | prottog wrote:
         | I agree. This further degrades the meaning of owning private
         | property.
        
           | Ajedi32 wrote:
           | Unless it's voluntary (which it darned well better be).
           | 
           | I envision a future where individual appliances (including
           | EVs) can opt in to spot pricing for the electricity they
           | consume (or produce). That would naturally incentivize
           | charging during off-peak hours and discharging during peak
           | hours, all without requiring any government incentives or
           | coercion. It could also be useful for other major appliances
           | which could benefit from the lower prices afforded by load
           | shifting, such as hot water heaters.
        
             | at-fates-hands wrote:
             | >> I envision a future where individual appliances
             | (including EVs) can opt in to spot pricing for the
             | electricity they consume (or produce).
             | 
             | I remember when high speed internet was coming into being
             | and there were a lot of pundits talking about how high
             | speed bandwidth would be sold as a commodity on the NYSE.
             | If someone needed say an hour of high bandwidth for a video
             | conference, they could do what you're saying, buy an hour
             | of high speed access. Of course, high speed internet
             | eventually became so cheap and so readily available, those
             | ideas faded pretty fast.
             | 
             | I might be remembering this wrong, but wasn't Enron doing
             | what you're talking about?
        
             | tguvot wrote:
             | a bunch of appliances already can be aware of TOU pricing
             | and run when it's atlowest. Many thermostats can be "auto-
             | adjusted" based on grid load
        
             | NotYourLawyer wrote:
             | Lots of now-compulsory things started out as voluntary.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Pretty hard to make it compulsory if you can avoid it by
               | (at worst) unplugging your car.
        
           | wjnc wrote:
           | Energy price volatility will probably increase because
           | natural sources are more volatile and other sources have spin
           | up / down cycles. A car battery is like 3-4 days of
           | continuous house usage. The car battery being used to top off
           | the top 10% in short term pricing for energy would give a
           | very nice ROI I expect. The rest is software? Don't
           | overcharge, don't go under the limit I set for continuous
           | availability as a mode of transport. And that's all within
           | reach in front of the meter, thus under my ownership. Heck,
           | without self driving becoming common a family might even have
           | 2 EVs on the driveway, giving a week of off grid potential.
           | 
           | Come to think of it - a harder part is how super local the
           | grid is and energy pricing should become. In my somewhat
           | affluent neighborhood in high summer the voltage rises too
           | high and the supply of solar falls. And tragedy of the
           | commons - we are still installing solar because it's
           | massively incentivized (2 years before investment returns
           | itself). To solve this with EVs requires very granular
           | prices. There might be clouds 50 km away. But again, those
           | are software solvable issues. (I'm not holding my breath.
           | It's like IoT-superplus.)
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | The distributor should just pay the generation fee to the car
         | owners just like they would a power plant.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Assuming Tesla prices and full cycling of battery (aka from
         | 100->0), draining a kWh puts about 2cents wear on your battery,
         | so compensation would need to be above that price.
         | 
         | In practice you'd never allow your operator to drain you to 0,
         | so 2 cents is very much on the high side.
         | 
         | In the California Tesla VPP trial, they pay 50 cents per kWh.
         | 
         | (correction: 20cents wear, not 2cents)
        
           | georgeg23 wrote:
           | I calculate about $12 per Model Y full battery cycle, _how
           | did you get 2 cents?_
           | 
           | $12,000 (Model Y bat replace cost) * 300(miles for full
           | drain)/300,000(total miles per pack)
           | 
           | = $12 per cycle
           | 
           | Edit: or _18 cents per kWh_
        
             | xyzzyz wrote:
             | 18 cents per kWh is something like 5-6 times the wholesale
             | price of kWh. This means that using EV for large scale
             | storage is highly uneconomical.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | It's only used for those periods when demand exceeds
               | supply. In Texas, the wholesale price of electricity is
               | $9/kWh during those periods.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | Using your numbers: 300000 miles / 320 miles/cycle = 938
             | cycles. 938 cycles * 72kWh = 67500 kWh. $12000 / 67500 = 18
             | cents.
             | 
             | Dunno where I got my 2 cents from, that calculation was
             | done 2 months ago.
        
               | georgeg23 wrote:
               | I agree with your 18 cents/kWh. That's slightly more than
               | the average cost of electricity in the US?..
               | 
               | That is interesting, that means for home-charging your
               | electric cost (per mile) is about equal to the battery
               | degradation cost.
               | 
               | Thats 2x cost than most think.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Your whole car depreciates, not just the battery.
               | Depreciation cost for driving a mile is a _lot_ more than
               | the electricity cost.
        
               | dtech wrote:
               | the "real" time-based prices have much more variability,
               | if you have time-based prices you can buy for a lot less
               | and sell for a lot more during peak. That difference can
               | easily be double that 18 cents/kWh.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | They'll only want to buy back electricity at times when
               | demand exceeds supply. In Texas the price of electricity
               | is $9/kWh during those times.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | For you though that cost is just part of the normal
               | depreciation of using the vehicle. Allowing the utility
               | to discharge your battery isn't part of the normal
               | utilization for yourself so the cost should get included.
               | We also don't usually think or talk about how much
               | depreciation using a particular gallon of gas costs you
               | so it muddies comparisons.
        
               | ErikCorry wrote:
               | Petrol engines get worn too.
        
             | Tade0 wrote:
             | It's not per cycle, but per kWh.
             | 
             | In any case I'm getting 10-20 cents depending on battery
             | pack size and chemistry.
        
             | hdevalence wrote:
             | The 2 cent figure is per kWh, not per cycle. Multiplying by
             | the 75kWh pack size gives $1.50.
             | 
             | What about the remaining 10X? The calculation you're doing
             | isn't the right one, because the battery wear isn't
             | directly related to miles driven; Tesla's battery warranty
             | is pricing in a "full stack" picture of battery degradation
             | while actually driving.
             | 
             | Your computation implies that the battery has 0 value after
             | ~1000 cycles, but battery manufacturers commonly warranty
             | 3,000-5,000. In addition, cycle count is only one variable
             | affecting degradation, others include the depth of
             | discharge, the charging and discharging profiles, the
             | thermal management, etc.
             | 
             | (This is one reason why a 10-year-old Tesla has noticeably
             | different battery degradation than, say, a 10-year old
             | Nissan Leaf, which has no thermal management and a very
             | poor BMS)
             | 
             | Finally, even when battery degradation occurs, it doesn't
             | remove the battery's entire capacity, so degraded batteries
             | can still be used for stationary storage applications.
             | While an extreme degradation like 50% is very bad for an
             | automotive application, it doesn't matter so much for
             | small-scale grid storage, since space is usually not the
             | limiting factor.
        
               | georgeg23 wrote:
               | The nature paper seems to assume the car is doing a fast
               | discharge to supply enough energy to the grid, so
               | something like supercharging-- probably not the best on
               | the battery. Tesla only warranties 375 cycles, so not
               | sure what you mean? The 18 cents/kWh already assumes a
               | more generous 1,000 cycles.
               | 
               | The $12,000 battery pack replacement cost is current
               | market price, including any recycling or potential reuse
               | of old pack.
               | 
               | Edit: actual battery replace including labor is $16,550
               | from a receipt https://www.currentautomotive.com/how-
               | much-does-a-tesla-mode...
        
         | phkahler wrote:
         | Did you know that the standard DC chargers communicate with the
         | vehicle using PLC (Powerline communication) chips even though
         | that communication is not over the high power conductors? I've
         | always had the feeling the grid operators got that included
         | because they thought they were going to communicate directly
         | with the battery management system to control it as they wish.
         | It never happened and now the standard is stupidly complex and
         | they're still trying to use cars as storage without much
         | consideration for what vehicle owners want.
         | 
         | Sure, offer variable rates. Offer interruptabke service. But
         | stop wanting V2G, nobody actually wants it.
        
           | jackinloadup wrote:
           | Assuming V2G means Vehicle to Ground, this is something I
           | would like to see for the following use-case.
           | 
           | I would like to use my car battery as a temporary home
           | battery in the inevitable case of a grid outage. This opens
           | the option to bring energy home from another location. Reduce
           | or eliminates the need for a battery in a grid-tied house.
           | 
           | Am I crazy?
           | 
           | Edit: Granted that doesn't mean the energy company can use my
           | car's battery at it's whim. I think compensation would be
           | required and would actually make a lot of sense. It isn't
           | like the electric company could build out a battery system
           | for cheaper. It would need to be a higher compensation than
           | to PV though. Batteries are more expensive and should be
           | compensated as such.
        
             | Reason077 wrote:
             | V2G = vehicle to grid. It's quite possible for this to
             | operate as a backup battery, but like a Powerwall it
             | requires extra "gateway" hardware to ensure that your house
             | is isolated from the grid when the battery is discharging.
             | 
             | V2L (vehicle to load) is a simpler form that lets you power
             | 115/230V appliances directly from the vehicle. Quite a few
             | EVs (Hyundai, Ford, etc) already support V2L.
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | That's not crazy, it's actually a publicized optional
             | feature on the F-150 Lightning, and the F-150 hybrid has an
             | optional 240V 30A output that can be used as a home backup
             | as well (although that'd be a bit more manual).
        
           | dublinben wrote:
           | >stop wanting V2G, nobody actually wants it.
           | 
           | Utilities really want V2G, so it's probably going to happen
           | one way or another. It's probably less applicable to an
           | individual homeowner, but commercial and other fleet
           | operators are going to find this appealing at the right
           | price.
           | 
           | For example: https://www.proterra.com/press-
           | release/massachusetts-electri...
        
             | ralph84 wrote:
             | School buses seem like possibly the only real use case
             | here, since they have a very seasonal usage pattern. For
             | other commercial vehicles, the operators buy them to
             | operate, not sit around and power the grid. When are they
             | envisioned to be powering the grid?
        
               | nemomarx wrote:
               | Municipal buses are parked in depots overnight, right?
               | That would kind of make sense - they already have to own
               | the land for that, the vehicles already have to stay
               | there in specific conditions, etc.
        
               | ralph84 wrote:
               | When are they supposed to charge if they're operating
               | during the day and powering the grid at night?
        
         | whazor wrote:
         | Selling electricity is compensation, like with solar panels.
         | You only need hourly energy prices to make it profitable. Plus
         | an app that does the profitability calculation and discharging.
        
           | ThunderSizzle wrote:
           | Sounds similar to Uber using a contractor vehicle's hidden
           | depreciation and maintenance to shift the real cost of their
           | service.
           | 
           | I doubt the hourly price will ever truly be fair to
           | individual car owners. Maybe we'll start to be asked whenever
           | we plug in our phones to tip the owner of a car our
           | electricity is coming from.
        
             | micromacrofoot wrote:
             | I already get paid by my utility for the electricity my
             | solar panels generate, and it's 1:1 with what they charge
             | me for their generation.
        
             | cwkoss wrote:
             | If there are consistent price cycles and a good API for
             | reading price, it should be pretty easy for an EV owner to
             | control how much they interact with the arbitrage
             | opportunities with some simple rules. Ex. "only sell if it
             | cost at least 15% less to charge", "always charge to X%",
             | "charge to 70% if < $Y", charge to 100% if < $Z", "never
             | sell below X%"
             | 
             | The aesthetic vibe of having an autonomous energy trading
             | bot in my garage is attractive to me.
        
               | rtkwe wrote:
               | Part of the issue isn't the controls to do that it's that
               | the prices to compensate wear on a battery are a) likely
               | significantly higher than the base price and b) pretty
               | hard to calculate.
        
               | mhb wrote:
               | That's what a market is for.
        
               | jahewson wrote:
               | There is no market. I can only sell electricity to PG&E
               | and only at a flat rate.
        
               | mhb wrote:
               | That is a market. You can decide to sell or not. Whether
               | PG&E offers a market clearing price is a separate issue.
        
               | cwkoss wrote:
               | Yeah, I'd try to model the deprecation cost of the
               | battery to some extent while tuning my magic numbers in
               | the trading bot settings.
               | 
               | ~1,500 cycles per $16k battery replacement. Shouldn't
               | sell a full cycle for less than ~$15. Don't arbitrage a
               | 1% point of battery life unless it yields at least $0.15.
               | Might just set it at $0.20 per 1% for healthy
               | margin/price in hassle of battery replacement.
        
             | rlpb wrote:
             | > I doubt the hourly price will ever truly be fair to
             | individual car owners.
             | 
             | If it's not fair to them, then they won't participate, and
             | the market will adjust.
        
           | idiotsecant wrote:
           | It's not likely that the pennies offered will offset the much
           | larger loss of value in the battery, though.
        
         | 0cVlTeIATBs wrote:
         | 1. Core charge when recycling 2. Time-of-use electricity rates.
         | Up to the customer to choose to install load shifting equipment
        
         | nkingsy wrote:
         | This makes much more sense with large lifepo4 chemistry
         | batteries that are expected to outlive the car by a wide
         | margin.
         | 
         | Lifepo4 batteries > 50kwh should easily handle 500,000 miles.
         | 
         | Higher performance lithium ion will degrade at a rate faster
         | than any expected return from a scheme like this.
         | 
         | At least in Northern California it's now cheaper for me to run
         | solar+battery off grid than to pay pge. Lifepo4 pushes it over
         | the edge into profitability.
         | 
         | If off-grid is competitive, selling at peak prices is a no
         | brainer.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | > If off-grid is competitive, selling at peak prices is a no
           | brainer.
           | 
           | So why isn't the utility managing the storage directly then?
           | Aren't they best suited to do this???
           | 
           | Or is this article just saying that EV car batteries _could_?
        
             | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
             | Utilities buy most of their power at wholesale rates, which
             | are lower than the consumer rate they charge the end user.
             | Net metering rules in some jurisdictions obligate the
             | utilities to buy solar/battery power from users at consumer
             | rates. That can be a good financial opportunity for
             | homeowners and it's driven a lot of the investment in home
             | solar setups. But local policies can change. The rules are
             | changing in California and it's not going to be such a good
             | deal anymore in the future.
        
             | Dylan16807 wrote:
             | > Aren't they best suited to do this???
             | 
             | They don't have a million EV batteries, purchased outside
             | the scope of this program, sitting around idle and
             | connected to the grid.
             | 
             | Their customers do.
        
               | tuatoru wrote:
               | Utilities don't _yet_ have a million EV batteries laying
               | around, but they (or specialist EoL battery companies)
               | will soon.
               | 
               | From the abstract:-
               | 
               | > Participation rates fall below 10% if half of EV
               | batteries at end-of-vehicle-life are used as stationary
               | storage.
               | 
               | Half seems conservative to me. There are already lots of
               | startups wanting your end-of-life EV battery.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | I have 100k miles on my 2018 Model S having Supercharged it
           | the majority of the time the last four years. It has only 6%
           | battery degradation of the 100kw pack. Tesla warranties their
           | powerwalls for 15 years when configured as part of their
           | aggregated virtual power plants. The batteries are
           | demonstrated to be durable.
           | 
           | New LFP chemistries that are heavier but more stable are
           | ideal for stationary storage and high cycle counts, but the
           | evidence shows in general that these packs are built for
           | longevity (with very occasional early failures). You could
           | probably do well buying a salvage Tesla and shucking the pack
           | for working modules and coming out ahead economically (safety
           | warning, do at your own risk, etc) if you don't want or can't
           | get dedicated stationary storage (although it comes with
           | generous federal, state, and utility subsidies in
           | California).
        
             | danans wrote:
             | > if you don't want or can't get dedicated stationary
             | storage (although it comes with generous federal, state,
             | and utility subsidies in California).
             | 
             | I installed stationary LFP batteries (from Enphase) on my
             | house in CA 1.5 years ago, but I then discovered that the
             | state and utility subsidies [1] only apply if you are in a
             | very low income (for CA) bracket, have a health condition
             | that requires backup power, or live in a high fire risk
             | zone.
             | 
             | I don't qualify for the first 2 categories, and my luck is
             | that the high fire risk zone starts about a mile away from
             | my house, so good from the fire risk perspective, but not
             | for the subsidy. Still got the 26% federal tax credit (with
             | IRA, it's now back up to 30%).
             | 
             | 1. SGIP: https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-
             | topics/electrical-ene...
        
         | jackmott wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | claytongulick wrote:
       | Maybe before we get too excited about scaling production of EV
       | batteries, we should solve the horrific abuses in the cobalt
       | mines in the Congo [1] which provide 70%+ of all cobalt for all
       | lithium ion batteries.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIWvk3gJ_7E
        
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