[HN Gopher] Seven years on, what do we know about the disappeara... ___________________________________________________________________ Seven years on, what do we know about the disappearance of flight MH370? (2021) Author : pantalaimon Score : 229 points Date : 2023-01-24 16:39 UTC (6 hours ago) (HTM) web link (admiralcloudberg.medium.com) (TXT) w3m dump (admiralcloudberg.medium.com) | amatecha wrote: | If you haven't seen it, this Google Map of all found debris is | quite interesting: | https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1Kghrk3iwRInii5qBTG... | roxgib wrote: | > They were tracking the plane on the Flight Explorer website, | which, as they would only realize hours later, simply continued | to display an aircraft's projected path if its transponder | stopped broadcasting position information. | | Oops | chs20 wrote: | I agree that much evidence points towards the pilot intentionally | crashing. However, it's not proven and constructing a story | around this theory is a bit distasteful. | | Otherwise, the article is quite interesting. | O__________O wrote: | Curious, based on actual evidence, is there any reason to believe | the pilot didn't exit the plane prior to it crashing? | somat wrote: | I don't think you can open the door on a 777 in flight. | | For comparison the plane that D B Cooper used had a stairway in | the back(sometimes called airstairs). He was able to override | the in flight lock and get out that way. My understanding is | that the db cooper incident is in a large part why they don't | put airstairs on planes any more. | | But now you have me watching videos on 777 doors. they open | outward than forwards, like most airline doors they probably | have a interlock to prevent them from opening in flight, if you | could override that, I don't think you could push them forwards | against the slipstream. | jaundicedave wrote: | what, like he somehow smuggled a parachute onboard and then | survived a late-night ditch into the middle of the ocean? | O__________O wrote: | Might be wrong, but I had heard it was possible to enter a | pre planed flight path. Plane did a turn back over land | before heading out to sea. | williamcotton wrote: | More like he asphyxiated everyone on the plane, including the | rich heiress with her priceless jewelry and millions in cash, | flew over a known location where he had previously towed a | get-away boat, stole all of the other valuables on the plane, | and skydived into the perfect crime. | mindcrime wrote: | Maybe he was related to D.B. Cooper? | edfletcher_t137 wrote: | This is the crux/TL;DR: | | "Perhaps the most compelling reason to believe that Zaharie | hijacked his own plane is its simplicity. It's the only | explanation that doesn't rely on a series of independently | improbable events: given a desire to do it, everything else falls | into place as a reasonable part of the plan. In fact, from the | timing of the transponder failure to the specific locations of | the turns to the flight path into the Southern Indian Ocean, it | would be harder to come up with a better way to make an airliner | disappear. Why believe that this is a coincidence when it could | well have been the goal from the very beginning? Furthermore, | whoever was flying the plane had extensive systems knowledge and | excellent hand-flying ability. Who else on board had those skills | but Zaharie? Indeed, it's by far the easiest answer." | [deleted] | [deleted] | yellow_lead wrote: | The part where he had flown the route in a simulator is | compelling as well. What a long article though | mrguyorama wrote: | Except why go through all that trouble to take a very weird | route to avoid detection and "disappear"? Every other pilot | suicide has involved just pointing down. Why would the pilot | need to make his suicide plausibly deniable? | ak_111 wrote: | Deciding to end your life by committing mass murder is | already hugely irrational, trying to analyse any further | moves such a state of mind had planned out from the | viewpoint of rationality is nonsensical. | rainworld wrote: | Except they made this up and he never flew that route, on his | simulator or otherwise. | jefftk wrote: | Huh? The article has " _In 2014, a leaked Malaysian police | report revealed that among Zaharie's saved flight simulator | sessions was a very odd route which ran up the Strait of | Malacca, turned south after passing Sumatra, and then flew | straight down into the Southern Indian Ocean before | terminating in the vicinity of the seventh arc. Not only | did the track resemble MH370's actual flight path, it also | contained a number of other intriguing details. For | example, the track wasn't really a track -- rather, it was | a series of brief clips lasting no more than a few seconds | each, indicating that Zaharie had programmed it in advance | then skipped along it to various points without actually | playing through the entire hours-long flight. Furthermore, | although initial reports indicated that the track had been | intentionally saved by the user, later analysis showed that | it was kept only in the system files, and certainly was not | meant to be found. Was this a dry run? It seems too odd to | be a coincidence._ " -- what part of that do you disagree | with? | rainworld wrote: | They found bits from random savefiles and constructed | something vaguely resembling a simulator route out of it. | If even that. "Leak"--the Malaysians are not good faith | players in this. | | Really, I can only point to this: | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34509899t. Maybe | look into the MS Estonia sinking, the cover-up (of the | unfortunate results of a spy game) is very obvious there. | jjulius wrote: | >In 2016, a leaked American document stated that a route | on the pilot's home flight simulator, which closely | matched the projected flight over the Indian Ocean, was | found during the FBI analysis of the flight simulator's | computer hard drive.[256] _This was later confirmed by | the [Australian Transportation Safety Bureau]_ , although | the agency stressed that this did not prove the pilot's | involvement.[257] The find was similarly confirmed by the | Malaysian government.[258] | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_37 | 0 | xwdv wrote: | Simply parroting information that is accused of being | fake because it appeared in another source isn't an | argument for its validity. | jefftk wrote: | I'm not presenting it as an argument for validity, I'm | asking which part they're accusing of being fake. | phlipski wrote: | Fascinating read but for some REAL fun Jeff Wise's "Russian | Hijacking Theory" is pretty awesome.... | | http://jeffwise.net/2019/03/09/the-russian-passengers-aboard... | InCityDreams wrote: | >tradition is to brave subzero air temperatures and water | temperatures of 34 degrees | | Good read, but: all that detail and couldn't be bothered | providing a (bracketed) degree-centigrade comparison. | nobrains wrote: | The article doesn't mention the amateur ham radio interference | pattern research data to figure out the flight path. | | See this: https://youtu.be/Jq-d4Kl8Xh4 | digitalsankhara wrote: | The methodology of using aircraft scatter of radio signals | encoded in the WSPR protocol is described in [1]. I was so | sceptical when I heard about this - mainly due to the normally | mangled reporting in mainstream media - that I really didn't | think there was any merit in it. | | The thought of being able to detect aircraft scatter using very | low power HF signals over variable ionospheric propagation | conditions at long range seemed almost impossible to me. The | use of the WSPR (Weak Signal Propagation Reporting) [2] network | and its highly efficient protocol is what changed my mind. | | I'm much less of a sceptic having read the basis of the paper, | at it appears there have been proving flights to evidence the | technique can work. I haven't had time to research other | workers who have reproduced the results, so would be interested | if anyone has any links. | | [1] https://www.mh370search.com/2022/03/14/mh370-wspr- | technical-... | | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software) | mannykannot wrote: | I took a look at this a few months ago, and when I left off, | I was unsure exactly how they conducted the validation of the | technique. In particular, there was a test on June 3 2021 | where they attempted to reconstruct the path of a flight from | Samoa to Australia[1]. Certain phrases in the report leave me | wondering whether the test simply amounted to looking for | anomalies in the WSPRnet data in close spatiotemoral | proximity to where the airplane was known to be: | | "There are no WSPRnet anomalies observed at departure. At | 03:30 UTC there is a drift anomaly _2 minutes behind the | aircraft_ as well as 5 WSPRnet links _just behind the | aircraft_ , which may be due to the wake." [my emphasis here | and below.] | | "There is no obvious way to choose whether the aircraft | turned to port or starboard to execute a 180deg turn back | towards Australia. I tried out both options and _the best | fit_ appears to be a turn to starboard. " | | And from a comment by someone apparently involved: | | "There was one error of note, the initial turn of the | aircraft after departure was to port and not starboard. Mike | commented ' _I should have told you_ that aircraft departing | NSFA on RWY 08 will always turn to port due to terrain | clearance considerations. _If you'd known that_ then no doubt | the first part of the route would have been a bit more | accurate. '" | | These quotes seem to imply a detailed knowledge of the | airplane's track while the WISPRnet data is being searched | for indications of that track. I would be more than happy to | update this opinion once I get a clearer picture of how these | tests are conducted. | | [1] https://www.dropbox.com/s/1cox7y91m89sjsv/GDTAA%20V2%20Bl | ind... | prova_modena wrote: | There was a decent size HN discussion about this here: | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27044995 | | The person behind this method has a website here: | https://www.mh370search.com/ | | I am interested in flight tracking, amateur radio digital modes | and statistics, so I took the time to read through some of his | analysis. I actually didn't look at the MH370 work, but instead | at his case study of OE-FGR | (https://www.mh370search.com/2022/10/28/oe-fgr-case-study/). | His site states "The analysis in the report supports our | previous belief that using WSPRnet data to detect and track | MH370 together with the Boeing 777-200ER performance data and | the Inmarsat satellite data provides a reliable method to | determine the crash location." | | After reading through the full report (shared via dropbox on | the previously linked page), I'm quite skeptical of the | statistical methods used to support his results. The red flags | I noticed were: | | - claims of "statistical significance", but no actual | hypothesis tests w/ p-values presented | | - no description of the shape of the observed distributions of | SNR values, seemingly just assuming they will be normal | (although the words "normal distribution" never appear in the | study) | | - showing a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve where the | measured data falls within the 95% CI of the diagonal and the | area under the curve is approx 0.6, but presenting this weak | evidence as if it supports a relationship between anomalies and | aircraft position. They also state that the 0.6 area for the | cruise phase vs 0.55 area for the descent phase shows the | detection technique is more effective for the cruise phase. | Again, it seems ill advised to make these statements without an | actual hypothesis test. | | - spending a huge amount of time narrating events and | highlighting individual data points. When you're making an | experimental claim like this, I want to understand the sample | sizes and distribution of observed and expected values, which | the study does not make easy. In a certain sense, I don't care | about individual data points. While this isn't necessarily | wrong and I understand contextually why the authors do this, it | feels like I'm being directed to a particular narrative. | | That said, I'm just a very amateur stats nerd ho spent a lot of | time in R during undergrad and occasionally likes running | t-tests and making plots for fun, so I'd love to hear the pros | opinion. | bengl3rt wrote: | "Before Fariq can attempt to get back into the cockpit, Zaharie | reaches up and flips the pressurization switch, cutting off bleed | air to the cabin. The airplane rapidly begins to depressurize." | | I really want to believe that a single switch doesn't control | whether people in the back of the plane can breather or not... | TylerE wrote: | It won't unless there is some sort of major hull leak. If it | was off long enough it would start to be a problem. Its | basically the same same as turning off recirc on your car's | climate controls. (Also, the pressurization controls are almost | always on the overhead panels, which contains things that are | used almost always for startup/shutdown steps so it's not like | the pilot is going to reach over to adjust a radio or the | autopilot and hit the bleed air. | | Really though there are plenty of switches in any cockpit that | will result in the death of all aboard if no corrective action | is taken. | | Do you freak out about driving? Plenty of controls in your car | you could say the same thing about. Yanking the ebrake at | highway speeds in rush hour traffic isn't gonna end well. | | Edit the 5th or so: There are also times when the pilot will | legitimately and safely depressurize in flight, like when | descending to the one of the super-high airports that are | actually at higher altitude than typical cabin atmosphere, like | La Paz Bolivia (over 13000ft, compared to a typical cabin | altitude of 5-8000 or so. They do it gradually while | descending, so they don't make everyones ears go bang all at | once. | | Edit the 6th: Also, there's a big difference between turning | off bleed air (which is pretty benign) and actually hitting the | emergency pressure dump control, which is protected by a guard | that holds the switch in the normal/auto position. | Ajedi32 wrote: | I think the difference is that in a car, any action that | could kill the passengers is nearly as likely to kill the | driver as well. Obviously you can't stop the pilot from | crashing the plane and killing everyone, but it's still | pretty creepy to learn that there's a "kill all passengers | but leave me alive" switch in every plane, in a locked | cockpit inaccessible to the people whose lives are affected | by that switch. | mlyle wrote: | It's about that easy. Of course, masks are a-gonna drop, and | flight attendants are going to put on portable oxygen | bottles... and of course the crew should descend. But the whole | plane architecture is built on the idea that you're trusting | the people in the front with everyone's lives. | stouset wrote: | I think the point being that _accidentally_ hitting this | switch is probably of some concern. | outworlder wrote: | That's some accident. The pressurization controls are | overhead in a not very central location. | ploum wrote: | I read a story about the "landing gear down" button being | close and similar to the "shut off all engines" button in | some bombers during WW2. | | A few of them crashed after very long flights, on approach | of the runway. Inexplicably, they suddenly felt right when | they should have deployed landing gears. | | So aircraft makers learned from that incident that no | amount of training can mitigate a bad user interface. | Especially if the user of your interface is dead tired | after a 12h flight. | mlyle wrote: | Modern aircraft have very good warning systems that warn | when configuration of the aircraft or systems necessary for | life are in incorrect states, and the way they're used | generally afford a decent chunk of time if something goes | wrong. | jaywalk wrote: | It's not going to be accidentally hit. And even if somehow | it does get hit accidentally, there's a CABIN ALTITUDE | warning that would go off before it becomes a problem. | EdwardDiego wrote: | After a few crashes that bad UX played a part in, I'm | reasonably confident that in a modern aircraft that switch | is somewhere hard to press accidentally. | | (E.g., fuel selector switches that can enter an unexpected | state while looking like they're in the correct state, | take-off/go-around switches that could be triggered by a | first officer wearing a watch reaching for the speed brake | lever, attitude indicators with ambiguous backgrounds, | three-pointer/drum-pointer/counter-pointer altimeters) | thrashh wrote: | Well I don't know if I've heard of any incidents and there | are like hundreds of flights in a day so in all | practicality, there is zero concern | DogLover_ wrote: | You might want to learn about Helios Airways Flight 522 crash | EamonnMR wrote: | That one haunts my nightmares. | threads2 wrote: | WOW I will never sleep on a plane again. | rainworld wrote: | Read Florence de Changy's The Disappearing Act if you want a | rough idea what actually happened. | dml2135 wrote: | Fascinating article. I had a chuckle at this excerpt: | | >The Malaysian investigators did look into whether the cargo | could have started a fire, noting that it consisted mainly of | ripe mangosteen fruits along with a small number of lithium | batteries. Extensive attempts by the investigators to get | mangosteen juice to react with the batteries and trigger a fire | were unsuccessful. | | I'm sure plenty of people here have spent time wracking their | brain on a hard problem and the image of a bunch of | transportation investigators dousing batteries with juice in a | late-night fit of desperation really gets me. | interestica wrote: | Investigations have some weird bits. I've always wondered if | there's a certain title for the person who prepares the | chickens for the 'chicken gun' in airplane testing. | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_gun | wyager wrote: | I got to take a tour of SWRI when I was younger, and they | have one of these chicken guns in one of their testing | facilities. They also have a locker full of machine guns for | testing bullet resistance of vehicles etc. | themodelplumber wrote: | ChatGPT's answer: "Bird-strike Technician" | | "This person is responsible for preparing the birds that are | used in bird-strike testing. This process typically involves | obtaining, handling, and preparing the birds for testing, | which can include things like plucking feathers and filling | the birds with a material to simulate blood. They also make | sure that the birds are stored and transported in a humane | and ethical manner." | RobRivera wrote: | Operational Testing Lead Quality Assurance Tester El Pollo | Hermano | chanandler_bong wrote: | Mr. Fring would like to see you in his office. Now. | TylerE wrote: | Less fun than Operational Testing Lead Quality Assurance | Tester Los Pollo Hermanos | duxup wrote: | Excuse me sir, it is: | | SENIOR OTL-QA-TEPH | zitterbewegung wrote: | Bird Hit QA engineer | ajsnigrutin wrote: | After the joke fiasco, and since it's a government job, i'm | sure there is someone employed there to thaw them first :D | interestica wrote: | What joke? was it related to https://cdc.gov/chikungunya | Daneel_ wrote: | I believe they're talking about this one: | https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/catapoultry/ | thriftwy wrote: | This story has been going around the world for 50 years, and | in different variations. According to some sources, the first | time she appeared in a publication in USA in 1958, in the | professional magazine "Meat and Game" of the California | Associations of Game Producers (proven fact). The | authenticity of the story, however, is questionable. | | The FAA has at its disposal a unique device for measuring the | strength of aircraft windshields, in case of a collision with | birds at high speed (which happens not so rarely). This | device is a powerful pneumatic cannon that shoots a chicken | carcass into the windshield of an airplane at a speed | approaching the cruising speed of a civilian aircraft (for | jet aircraft, this is approx. 800 km/h, for screw engines in | the 1950s, this figure was probably smaller, maybe 400-500 | km/h). According to the theory, if the glass can withstand a | collision with a chicken at such a speed, then it should all | the more withstand a real collision with a bird in flight. | | A certain British engineering company developing high-speed | trains borrowed this gun from the FAA to test the strength of | the windshield of its a new high-speed train. The cannon was | brought to England, installed at the landfill, loaded with a | chicken carcass and fired at a prototype train. | | The result exceeded all expectations: the chicken broke | through the glass, broke the back of the driver's seat and | got stuck in the back wall of the cab. The British sent in | FAA tested the results and asked them if they had done | everything correctly and if the gun had hit too hard. After | studying the description and consequences of the test, the | answer came by telegram immediately: "Next time, defrost the | chicken." | karaterobot wrote: | Good read from a few years ago: Langewiesche's conclusion is that | the pilot probably crashed the plane on purpose. | | https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/mh370-m... | ErikVandeWater wrote: | According to experts hired by NBC news, the audio between the | pilots and ATC were edited: | https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/missing-jet-re... | | For whatever reason, this doesn't seem to be widely discussed. | gabereiser wrote: | edited for brevity. You can't edit the recordings of the black | box but you could certainly doctor recordings from either side. | It mentions that in the article that it doesn't mean anything | nefarious but rather just a matter of fact. If they were edited | before release, its probably to cut out silence or something. I | wouldn't go conspiracy theory here. | detrites wrote: | Audio is super cheap, and easy to index. Releasing it all has | zero downside yet enables better investigation. Even things | like dead-air pops/hums could potentially offer clues. (And | an unbroken timeline is important in and of itself.) | | Someone once reconstructed an entire helicopter's location | telemetry just from the dead-air hum recorded by a video | camera. Don't underestimate the value of any piece of | information. It's a failure if there's needless withholding. | Ftuuky wrote: | Do you know more about that helicopter story? | ladberg wrote: | https://www.windytan.com/2014/02/mystery-signal-from- | helicop... | david422 wrote: | That's pretty crazy. | howenterprisey wrote: | How?! | ErikVandeWater wrote: | Edits should be made clear upon release of the audio | recording. The investigation is either incompetent or corrupt | if it is not being forthcoming about edits to information | released to the public. | luckylion wrote: | If you released something of that importance and edited | beforehand, you'd probably say so and release the unedited | version as well, wouldn't you? | | Sometimes I wonder whether some officials are trolling the | conspiracy theory people, by editing something without even | changing anything, just so people can freak out over it. Or | give overlay specific denials just so people go "aha, they | only said they never negotiated with Aliens from Mars, not | that they didn't meet Aliens from Mars, nor that they didn't | negotiate with Aliens from Pluto". | MrOwnPut wrote: | Did you read the article? It seems like it wasn't just | silence edited out. | | "At approximately 1:14 (a minute, 14 seconds into the audio, | which can be heard here), the tone of the recording change to | where to me, it sounds like someone is holding a digital | recorder up to a speaker, so it's a microphone-to-speaker | transfer of that information. That's a pretty big deal | because it raises the first red flag about there possibly | being some editing," he said. | | The next part that raises questions is two minutes, six | seconds in, through two minutes, nine seconds in, he said. | | "I can hear noise in the room, along with the increase in the | noise floor. I can hear a file door being closed, I can hear | some papers being shuffled. so I'm further convinced that, | beginning at 1:14 continuing through 2:06 to 2:15, it's a | digital recorder being held up to a speaker." | | "But yet, at 6:17, there's a huge edit because the | conversation is cut off. It's interrupted. And the tone | changes again," he said. "The noise floor, when you're | authenticating a recording from a forensic perspective, is a | very important part of the process. All of a sudden, we go | back to the same quality and extremely low noise floor that | we had at the beginning of the recording." | type0 wrote: | I try to think positively. It successfully landed on the beach in | North Sentinel Island, where all the passengers and the crew | still live happy lives away from these pesky newfangled life we | call civilization. | | edit: satellite data needs to be bogus though, so my theory makes | perfect sense | zxcvbn4038 wrote: | 4 8 15 16 23 42? | FeistySkink wrote: | Guess what happened to the guy who used this number while | playing lotto? | kadoban wrote: | It's been years and this was very famous, so I'm going to | guess that at least one person who played this number died | in extremely questionable circumstances. Large numbers and | probability pretty much guarantee that this is true. | humanistbot wrote: | Civilization can be pesky until someone falls and needs | antibiotics to prevent sepsis. | postalrat wrote: | Doesn't seem extremely likely | JimtheCoder wrote: | I'm sure this magical island would have some mushroom to deal | with that. Obviously. | sopooneo wrote: | Hearing about all the painstaking analysis of this flight made me | wonder something: If you look deeply enough, how frequent are | inexplicable situations? That is, if you took all the info from a | normal flight, and cut it off at the halfway point and gave it to | a group of enthusiastic investigators, would they find aspects | that contradicted or truly did not make sense? My guess is they | would. | | This is not to say MH370 was without incident, only that apparent | contradiction may be unavoidable if you look closely enough at | anything. | TylerE wrote: | It's unlikely, since about 98% of the Earth has transponder | coverage, so you at least have position and what the aircraft | think's it's altitude is, with pretty good precision and sample | rate. It's only in a few spots in the middle the ocean that | this doesn't exist. | | This was also relevant in that Airbus crash from maybe 15 years | ago between South America and Africa. | | This is not a problem on the main to/from North America routes | because there are enough populated islands along the way | (Iceland, Greenland, Hawaii, Guam, etc) | travisjungroth wrote: | Even more, I imagine the average flight would look | extraordinary. You would always hit some rare event if you | looked hard enough. Rare events are so common! What are the | odds that this many people on the plane were military / | government / communists / CEOs / Jews / elderly? Well, pretty | high if you're looking after-the-fact. And if you look into the | background of every person and started reaching out a bit it | would get weirder. You'd have tons of former whatevers, | brother-in-laws of important people, criminals, all sorts. And | people would be _absolutely certain_ it meant something. | | In the case of MH370, this is why I always found the simulator | history of the pilot the most relevant. It doesn't require this | long chain of relationships like some other things. It is the | most impactful person recently doing something related to the | event that is _extremely_ weird behavior. | dinkumthinkum wrote: | I get what you're saying but I doubt it because air travel now | is extraordinarily systematic and well understood. | SethTro wrote: | Should have [2021] | kgwgk wrote: | Relevant book (open access): | | Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370 | | Authors: Sam Davey , Neil Gordon , Ian Holland , Mark Rutten , | Jason Williams | | https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-10-0379-0 | ghaff wrote: | Funnily enough I'm in the process of reading Blind Man's Bluff | in which similar techniques were employed to locate subs that | sank. | | ADDED: The loss of the Scorpion described in that book reminds | me of this as well. While some of the details related to what | exact sort of torpedo failure caused the Scorpion sinking is a | matter of debate, the betting money is on _some_ sort of | torpedo failure rather than a Soviet tit-for-tat or other | complicated scenario for which there 's no real evidence. | _Adam wrote: | > ... reaches up and flips the pressurization switch, cutting off | bleed air to the cabin. The airplane rapidly begins to | depressurize ... | | I cannot believe that a "kill everyone" switch actually exists, | and if it really does this seems like a bug. Especially because | _not_ hitting the switch would also kill everyone. | paranoidrobot wrote: | Your assumption is that it's a "kill everyone" button. | | Yes, used incorrectly or maliciously, in the right | circumstances, it can do so. | | By the same reasoning, a huge percentage of the controls and | switches in the cockpit can also have the same result. | | Just disconnect the fuel to the engines, or push the control | stick forward. | maegul wrote: | I feel like the need for qualified pilots is essentially that | it'd be easier to identify what isn't effectively a "kill | everyone" button in the cockpit if used in the wrong way. | | It's a fricken giant metal tube flying through the air! | ceejayoz wrote: | Being able to rapidly depressurize is fairly critical; the | doors are prevented from opening in flight by a pressure | differential and their construction. In an emergency, being | unable to depressurize would mean being unable to evacuate the | aircraft. | | Passengers would've had their oxygen masks deploy, which works | in normal circumstances, but they only last 12 minutes; | intended to give the crew time to descend. When the pilot has | no intention of taking that measure, you're screwed pretty | fast, but they could fly into a mountain too if they felt like | it. | zxcvbn4038 wrote: | Better question is what has been done to prevent the next MH370 | and I bet the answer is nothing much, it took a back burner once | the story was out of the headlines. | | There are only a thousand reasons aircraft operators might want | to know where their planes are and if there are any issues. I'm | sure that the gps position and black box data could be streamed | over radio and/or satellite. | asmor wrote: | MH370 likely had systems that enable tracking deliberately | disabled by someone in the cockpit (or they all failed at the | same time). That's not part of the threat model for good | reasons. | twelve40 wrote: | seems quite addressable if that was the case? just don't let | humans disable tracking, what's a sane use case for that | anyway? | [deleted] | nradov wrote: | For safety reasons airliners must have circuit breakers | that allow disabling every electrical system in case of a | fire, short circuit, or other dangerous malfunction. | chem83 wrote: | Huh? A lot[0,1,2] has been done considering how little we know | about what has actually happened and a trivial search would | enlighten you. | | Also, real-time streaming of GPS position for the thousands of | flights in the air at any given time is not a trivial problem | (but technology is improving and ICAO is pushing for such | solution[3]). | | [0] https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/08/us/mh370-fifth-anniversary- | ma... | | [1] https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2014-04-10/malaysia- | airli... | | [2] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/malaysia-airlines- | flight-370-pr... | | [3] https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/9/11184544/un-flight- | trackin... | geysersam wrote: | Satellite phone text messages cost about $1 each. Sending one | every 5th minute seems sufficient. That's $120 for a 10 hour | flight. Seems technically quite doable with existing | technology at a reasonable price? | | I imagine there are optimization that could be done to reduce | the cost further. Big customers with constant rate usage can | probably negotiate a more favorable price etc. | lxgr wrote: | Given that the very flight in question had Inmarsat equipment | on board, I think it's fair to be at least somewhat surprised | by the lack of periodic location updates. | | But technology in aviation moves (generally for very good | reasons!) at a different pace than in many other industries, | and in this case it unfortunately meant having an operational | satellite communications system on board (used for engine | performance data telemetry transmitted to the manufacturer), | but not having it wired up to ADS-C, an existing standard | which allows automated position reporting over that same | connection. | | Inmarsat has modified their offerings [1] since MH370: One | free ADS-C position report every 15 minutes for planes that | do support it (implying that transmission cost is a concern | for not activating the option unless required for air traffic | control via FANS), and the ability to piggy-back a position | report onto a "handshake/ping" for those that don't, which | would presumably have included MH370. | | For aircraft not equipped with any Satcom, some satellite | constellations (including e.g. the latest generation of | Iridium satellites) include payloads that allow direct | tracking of ADS-B signals as well. | | [1] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/GTM/Documents/Inmarsat.pdf | XorNot wrote: | I will say it seems utterly bonkers, given the cost of | airliners, that we're talking about transmission costs on | the order of minutes and not doing per-second updates. | | Admittedly a lot of this was before our new era of | satellite constellations, but surely the future should now | be "per second updates and streaming audio/video via | satellite"? | fasthands9 wrote: | Feel like if we believe this was a pilot suicide then it would | also be important to try to address that - though I'm not sure | how unless we fully automated (and people liked that). | | There has been a German and Chinese flight since with 100+ | fatalities where this happened. Given how few crashes there are | on commercial flights its one of the biggest risk factors | today. | azalemeth wrote: | It's still a great shame that there is no recent update on | the Chinese flight MU-5735. AvHerald last had an update in | April 2022 and the whole thing has a strong feeling of media | silence. I do wonder if it is a pilot suicide though -- that | isn't yet confirmed. | | (0) https://avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=7680 | ggm wrote: | Risk has to be put in context. It's one of the biggest risks, | where all the risks are fantastically low against number of | flights and passenger/miles. All airline risks are lower than | driving. | | I would have said the 787 lithium battery risk was more | concerning personally. Or the 737 Max problem. | coredog64 wrote: | In '97, there was SilkAir 185. NTSB was fairly certain that | was pilot suicide. Another one was EgyptAir 990 in '99. | | In terms of fatalities and hull losses, pilot suicide is a | much larger risk than the 737 Max. It's made worse by | outdated FAA rules that would have pilots grounded for | seeking treatment. | idontpost wrote: | [dead] | dghlsakjg wrote: | To be fair, the oft cited "air travel is safer than cars" | statistic is on a passenger mileage basis. When you pack an | order of magnitude more people at a time going an order of | magnitude faster than a cad it looks super safe. | | If you compare it on an hourly basis it is still safer but | not nearly as safe as people would like to think. | Especially if you add in small commercial/charter planes | mrguyorama wrote: | One huge problem for pilots is that any mention of mental | illness, in any way, can basically result in you being | grounded. Taking medication for your brain can get you | grounded. | | So fall into a depression and need to talk to a therapist and | get a pill to help you out while you get back on your | emotional feet? Well now your airline is going to ground you | for however long they feel like. They are incentivized to be | as careful as possible about known issues. | | This means pilots feel like they have to bottle up things | like anxiety or depression or suicidal thoughts, which of | course means they might not get the help they need. | dghlsakjg wrote: | More to the point, any history of mental illness or | treatment at any point in your life can cause you to be | arbitrarily grounded in the future, at which point you have | to go through an opaque government process that is months | long and has no real guidelines as to how to prove | yourself. | | There is plenty of anecdotal evidence indicating that | pilots will seek treatment under false names, or, worse, | self medicate with alcohol for what would otherwise be | treatable and minor conditions. | | When I got my medical I was coached by my instructor to | volunteer absolutely no information that wasn't asked. It | was strongly hinted that I should not recall ever having | been treated or diagnosed with any mental condition. | toast0 wrote: | > Better question is what has been done to prevent the next | MH370 and I bet the answer is nothing much, it took a back | burner once the story was out of the headlines. | | Sometimes they retire the flight number. Then it can't happen | again. Looks like that's the case here [1] | | [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo- | way/2014/03/13/289800435... | klabb3 wrote: | > I'm sure that the gps position and black box data could be | streamed over radio and/or satellite. | | Find My: Boeing 777 | coolspot wrote: | 1) hide your AirTag in some airplane | | 2) name the AirTag "Boeing 777" | | 3) you have your personal Boeing in Find My to show off | antognini wrote: | In the US two people must be in the cockpit at all times. If | one of the pilots needs to use the bathroom, a flight attendant | has to take their place in the cockpit until the pilot returns. | This prevents a suicidal pilot from taking down a plane (or | makes it much harder anyway). This wasn't a requirement on | Malaysian Airlines at the time. (I don't know if the | regulations have since been updated.) | dark-star wrote: | so this is basically the "take-off-your-shoes" or "remove- | all-liquid-from-luggage" for pilots? one in a million | suicidal pilots, yet now every single pilot has to control | his bladder until some "babysitter" arrives to join them in | the cockpit? | asmor wrote: | That requirement became widespread after Germanwings 9525, | which happened a year later. | Quanttek wrote: | Your question is literally answered in the article: | | > Even without finding the plane, a number of lessons have been | drawn from the disappearance of MH370. Many of the responses to | the disappearance centered on the fact that in the 21st | century, commercial airliners should not just disappear. In the | interest of knowing where every plane is at all times, the | International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) began | requiring that all airliners manufactured after the 1st of | January 2021 include autonomous tracking devices that broadcast | their location once per minute. To give greater coverage of | airplanes manufactured before that date, Inmarsat (which | supplies satellite relays to nearly all commercial airliners) | changed the frequency of its handshakes from once per hour to | once every 15 minutes. The European Aviation Safety Agency | began requiring that the "pingers" on aircraft flight recorders | last at least 90 days, rather than 30. ICAO also amended its | guidelines to require that airliner designs approved after 2020 | include cockpit voice recorders that record 25 hours of | conversations (instead of the current standard of two), and | that flight data recorders either stream data to a location on | the ground or be designed to float to the surface after a | crash. (Like all ICAO regulations, these only come into force | if adopted by the member states, which may take some time.) | | I think now, after another documented murder-suicide, there's | also been a change in regulations requiring at least 2 people | to be in the cockpit at all times. Other commenters point to | additional changes | EMM_386 wrote: | Note that none of those things would "prevent the next | MH370", only be able to locate the wreckage faster. | | There isn't much that can be done to "prevent" incidents like | this. | wk_end wrote: | > I think now, after another documented murder-suicide, | there's also been a change in regulations requiring at | least 2 people to be in the cockpit at all times. Other | commenters point to additional changes | | This would help prevent a nefarious pilot from taking the | plane down. | | Arguably, many of the things suggested might potentially | have prevented Zaharie from carrying out his plan, assuming | the scenario described in the article is true, depending on | his motives: if the plane could have been intercepted in | mid-flight, if he would have been found out almost | instantly, his family wouldn't have been able to collect | life insurance; if his motive had been less financial for | his family and more about the intellectual challenge of | getting away with the perfect crime, this too would have | made his task more difficult. | | But that aside, when we say "prevent the next MH370", it's | ambiguous: we could interpret that as "prevent a pilot from | deliberately crashing their plane and killing everyone on | board", _or_ we could interpret it as "prevent a plane | from vanishing", which has been devastating to families in | its own unique and horrible way. In other words: locating | the wreckage faster - or at all! - has value too, and | shouldn't be dismissed. | roxgib wrote: | At this point the data from his computer, at least the data from | the flight simulator software, should be released publicly so | that those with experience can apply their knowledge to | reconstructing the data. It's entirely possible that someone with | more knowledge of the software in question, rather than a generic | computer expert, might have more luck. | maegul wrote: | Agreed. Whenever I return to this story I'm always astounded at | rereading that part of the story (even though I know it's | coming). I'm also surprised it isn't given more weighting. | | Sure it's the biggest reddest flag in all the evidence and | underemphasised purely because of the political implications of | a murderous pilot. | | The main question about it in my mind is one for aviation | experts ... why would any pilot plot and practice that course? | Is there any possible motivation other than wanting to crash a | plane in the middle of nowhere? | | Because if not, it's almost a closed, albeit morbid and | troubling case and the rest would be details. | | It also raises interesting questions about the importance of | pilot mental health that are maybe uncomfortable for the | industry, in addition to the fact that aviation tech could | still completely lose a plane. | markx2 wrote: | I can highly recommend reading more of Admiral_Cloudberg's | writings. | | Start at https://old.reddit.com/r/AdmiralCloudberg/ | | If you wish to skip any comments, | | https://old.reddit.com/r/AdmiralCloudberg/comments/e6n80m/pl... | | and use the Medium links. | LatteLazy wrote: | To me, the most interesting thing about all of this is that | civilian airports don't really have radar. You can disappear from | an ATC screen just by turning off a transponder. If they'd had | radar we would at least of known which way the plane went. A | curious controller could have asked "unidentified object at | height X, region Y" who they were and why they were in controlled | airspace without a transponder on. | | The article even implies the controllers themselves did not know | this: | | >Initially, no one noticed the sudden disappearance of the | airplane. After handing the flight over to Ho Chi Minh control, | the Malaysian controller looked away from his screen, and when he | looked back, the plane was gone. He assumed that it had flown out | of radar range and returned to his duties without a second | thought. | | But there was no radar range limit. There was only a transponder | range limit (or more likely an edge of the screen). | | >In Vietnam, controllers expected the plane to contact them, but | it did not, and they couldn't find it on radar either. | Controllers in Ho Chi Minh City began trying to raise the plane | on radio without success. For 18 minutes, they sent out a series | of increasingly desperate calls: would MH370 please respond? | Could any planes in the area contact MH370? The only answer was | silence. | | So even when they were actively looking for it, it was invisible | to their "radar". True radar would have told them there was a | plane-sized metal object in their airspace even if it refused | radio contact and had no transponder... | | It turns out you can make an entire plane full of people | completely invisible by throwing 1 switch. Who knew? | fosk wrote: | Radar is not exactly "new" technology, to your point I wonder | why airports are not equipped with one. Shouldn't break the | bank. | | Plus don't militaries have radar anyways for air defense? How | is it possible that no radar from multiple countries picked up | a silent Boeing 777 flying to nowhere? | lukewrites wrote: | I think it's most likely that governments with radar in the | area don't want to admit they have it. | [deleted] | hiidrew wrote: | Just noticing the medium author, this guy posts fantastic | breakdowns of plane crashes on r/catastrophicfailure | | Have to say the simulator part makes me lean heavily towards the | pilot crashing it purposefully, from the article - | | "The most widely reported piece of evidence tying Zaharie to the | disappearance was a course he had charted on his home flight | simulator about a month before the crash. Zaharie had a number of | hobbies, including paragliding and flying model airplanes, but he | also spent a lot of time at home on his computer playing flight | simulator games. He sometimes uploaded videos of himself playing | on his YouTube channel, where he comes off as affable and | knowledgeable, if a bit socially awkward. | | In 2014, a leaked Malaysian police report revealed that among | Zaharie's saved flight simulator sessions was a very odd route | which ran up the Strait of Malacca, turned south after passing | Sumatra, and then flew straight down into the Southern Indian | Ocean before terminating in the vicinity of the seventh arc. Not | only did the track resemble MH370's actual flight path, it also | contained a number of other intriguing details. For example, the | track wasn't really a track -- rather, it was a series of brief | clips lasting no more than a few seconds each, indicating that | Zaharie had programmed it in advance then skipped along it to | various points without actually playing through the entire hours- | long flight. Furthermore, although initial reports indicated that | the track had been intentionally saved by the user, later | analysis showed that it was kept only in the system files, and | certainly was not meant to be found. Was this a dry run? It seems | too odd to be a coincidence." | | Also discovering that black box is a misnomer is mildly humorous, | these are apparently orange! - | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_recorder | Railsify wrote: | 'Black box' is referring to the lack of visibility inside the | box and to the fact that you can't tamper with it, what goes in | stays in. | LarryMullins wrote: | Flight recorders are called black boxes because they | originally were black-colored boxes. | | "Black box" in the sense that you are describing is an | unrelated term. | travisjungroth wrote: | Wikipedia agrees! | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_recorder#Terminology | ignoramous wrote: | nb: Wikipedia favours _verifiability_ over _truth_ : | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/wp:vnt | | > _Wikipedia values accuracy, but it requires | verifiability. Wikipedia does not try to impose "the | truth" on its readers, and does not ask that they trust | something just because they read it in Wikipedia. We | empower our readers. We don't ask for their blind trust._ | wpietri wrote: | You sound like you have a problem with that, but I can't | fathom what alternative course you'd rather them pursue. | moffkalast wrote: | And Valve would sue them if they called it The Orange Box. | duxup wrote: | It is very strange. At the same time I imagine a lot of actions | in flight simulators are odd choices you might not make in real | life. | | I know I did a lot of poor flying.... | TylerE wrote: | If you enjoy this sort of thing, I'd encourage you to check out | this guy. | | https://www.youtube.com/user/blancolirio | pigtailgirl wrote: | -- adding mentour pilot: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis | t=PLiNyr6QSO28P2bKMcv2O_... -- | canjobear wrote: | For reference, Zaharie's Youtube channel: | https://www.youtube.com/@catalinapby1 | ak_111 wrote: | Imagine one day all of a sudden a low-quality few seconds | long video is uploaded to the channel showing only someone | filming their feet as they stroll on on a beach. | moffkalast wrote: | Well the found wreckage pieces apparently point to a | controlled ditching, so it's not entirely impossible for | the guy to be alive somehow. | ak_111 wrote: | As someone who doesn't have intuition about these things: what | are the chances that an 777 could have crashed and yet many years | later very very few of its debris showed up or were spotted | anywhere in the world (also factoring in intense search efforts | around the most likely places where it crashed)? | | Is this one of these 1 in a billion chance thing or is it not as | crazy as it sounds? Like even if you were intentionally trying | not to leave a trace, it is so hard to plan the drift and spread | of debris and get so lucky in them not being spotted. | civilized wrote: | There's not much watching the middle of the southern Indian | Ocean, which in many places is literally more than a thousand | miles away from any place humans usually inhabit. It's one of | the most remote, desolate, hostile regions of the planet. | | I can see the appeal as a suicide method. You fly out for a | while, it's quiet and pleasant, and before long there's no | turning back, no possibility of rescue. | rippercushions wrote: | And we also _have_ discovered numerous pieces of MH370 | debris, all in the kinds of places in eastern Africa where | the simulations said they should end up. | ak_111 wrote: | I don't think the amount of debris found is that great, a | tiny piece of wing... | civilized wrote: | I'm kind of surprised anything was found. Most of the | materials the plane is made of are heavier than water and | sunk to the bottom of the ocean. A few small floating | pieces drifted thousands of miles and happened to wash up | in inhabited areas. | dan_quixote wrote: | Major structures of a 777 are aluminum. I wouldn't expect many | large, easily identifiable, parts to float (for long). | cdelsolar wrote: | the ocean is sadly like > 10K feet deep and many miles away | from any land around where the plane is likely to have hit the | water | lamontcg wrote: | The Earth and the Oceans are really, really big. The amount of | the plane that we've found feels about right for going down in | he middle of the Indian Ocean. The bulk of it is going to be | sunk on the seafloor. | dghlsakjg wrote: | Not at all unlikely. That is one of the loneliest pieces of a | very large ocean. A lot of the recognizable stuff will sink, | and the stuff that floats will spend months being broken down | by seawater or having stuff grow on it. Eventually it will wash | up on a beach where it will be cleaned up with the literal tons | of trash that wash up on any beach these days. Or will not be | cleaned up because it is a place where humans don't go. | | If you think of a pristine beach its pristine because it gets | cleaned up regularly. Any ocean facing beach these days | accumulates so much trash. I used to do beach cleanup surveys | on windward coasts, and we would regularly find stuff that | could have belonged to an airplane (carbon fiber, composite | honeycomb, etc.) it was almost never worth investigating since | there was almost no way to know how long it had been in that | beach and how long it had been floating in the currents before | that. This was in the Caribbean, so I mostly assumed that all | that stuff was related to drug smuggling planes. The only time | we ever got a call back about something we found on the beach | is when we found a drift buoy from NOAA. | | This is the long way of saying that it surprises me not a bit | that nothing much was found. It's more surprising that anything | at all was found | valstu wrote: | This is 3 years old but still pretty well done explanation of the | case MH370 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd2KEHvK-q8 | hdesh wrote: | Fantastic article. | | Did the MH370 incident change anything about the communication | systems used by modern aircrafts? | jdmichal wrote: | TFA has an entire paragraph covering your question... | | > Even without finding the plane, a number of lessons have been | drawn from the disappearance of MH370. Many of the responses to | the disappearance centered on the fact that in the 21st | century, commercial airliners should not just disappear. In the | interest of knowing where every plane is at all times, the | International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) began | requiring that all airliners manufactured after the 1st of | January 2021 include autonomous tracking devices that broadcast | their location once per minute. To give greater coverage of | airplanes manufactured before that date, Inmarsat (which | supplies satellite relays to nearly all commercial airliners) | changed the frequency of its handshakes from once per hour to | once every 15 minutes. The European Aviation Safety Agency | began requiring that the "pingers" on aircraft flight recorders | last at least 90 days, rather than 30. ICAO also amended its | guidelines to require that airliner designs approved after 2020 | include cockpit voice recorders that record 25 hours of | conversations (instead of the current standard of two), and | that flight data recorders either stream data to a location on | the ground or be designed to float to the surface after a | crash. (Like all ICAO regulations, these only come into force | if adopted by the member states, which may take some time.) | gautamcgoel wrote: | Can someone TL;DR this please? | leplen wrote: | They never found the plane. Most likely the lead pilot crashed | it intentionally, but we don't really know. The person writing | this blog post is more certain about that than the Malaysian | authorities, but bloggers are allowed to speculate more than | government commissions. | | There's some neat math people used to try and find the plane | that gets alluded to, but not explained in depth, and the post | is a reasonable summary, but didn't really change my mind much | and my previous awareness was based on overhearing cable news, | so it's not really anything new. | | It's written well enough to be entertaining, but isn't really | enlightening. | olliej wrote: | And hey if we can't trust random people on the internet, who | can we trust? :) | sleton38234234 wrote: | There seems to be a knee jerk reaction to react negatively to | anyone who doesn't read the article or doesn't read it in | depth. | | i don't think the comment about TL;DR OR asking chatgpt is | completely out of line. I could see businesses being built on | top of chatgpt to create summaries of articles on the internet. | This is a pretty big use case. | | Sometimes, people want a more efficient way to read articles, | rather than actually reading them. If a service could be | created that summarizes the main point of an article, I think | there's value (and a potential business) in it. You might even | be able to ask chatgpt or a service on top ofit, "has this | article any new conclusions about the state of Mh370?" without | actually reading the article. | lamontcg wrote: | Particularly when over half the article is Atlantic-style | lengthy exposition about the history which a lot of us | already know, and I don't really care if the author is that | good of a writer or not. | sdk16420 wrote: | >Sometimes, people want a more efficient way to read | articles, rather than actually reading them. | | Is it too much to assume that readers have had at least high | school education and know about lead sentences and summary | paragraphs? | dieselgate wrote: | I agree with you considering parent comment has currently | been downvoted. This was one of the most fascinating articles | I've read but it was so long I still didn't finish reading | the entire thing | kerpotgh wrote: | [flagged] | ak_111 wrote: | The strangeness of this story - a 777 disappearing into thin air | in one of the most surveilled and monitored (due to geopolitics) | places on earth leaving no traces behind - has spooked people so | much that there is a section on the wikipedia page debunking | theories related to black holes. | nerdponx wrote: | Isn't this how the show _Lost_ starts? ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2023-01-24 23:00 UTC)