[HN Gopher] Cargo airships could be big
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Cargo airships could be big
        
       Author : Luc
       Score  : 243 points
       Date   : 2023-01-30 14:24 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.elidourado.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.elidourado.com)
        
       | jp57 wrote:
       | The airship renaissance is the fusion of transportation world.
       | It's always ten years away. Seriously, I've been hearing about
       | the great promise of modern airships for twenty years. Where are
       | they? Are there any airships operating commercially now outside
       | of niche applications?
        
         | vintermann wrote:
         | Of course it's niche applications, but it is the Zeppelin NTs
         | which is the biggest success story. They're used for tourism in
         | Germany and advertising in the US (the Goodyear Blimps, which
         | as the article points out are no longer blimps at all, but much
         | larger Zeppelins).
         | 
         | Zeppelin Luftschiffstechnik have survived by being _very_
         | careful about the scale of their ambitions (i.e, it's very
         | modest). They did deliver the three ships in the Goodyear
         | fleet, though, as far as I know completely on schedule, which
         | is rare in any project of that scale, let alone an airship
         | project.
         | 
         | I still haven't written off Sergey Brin's project entirely,
         | although it keeps getting delayed. Airlander I'm less
         | optimistic about, but they did fly (and crash) their prototype
         | and they're still around, so who knows.
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | The Sergey Brin airship project is Lighter Than Air (LTA), in
           | case any one was wondering.
           | 
           | https://www.ft.com/content/ae625a25-d2ac-4bca-9508-a5f0d3c7d.
           | ..
        
         | SonicScrub wrote:
         | Direct weather control is the prerequisite technology for at
         | scale operation of commercially viable airships. So once we
         | crack that I'm sure we will see them!
        
           | jodrellblank wrote:
           | We have very good weather prediction these days. After the
           | Titanic sank and people argued about mandating lifeboats on
           | ships, one of the arguments against was that global shipping
           | had already settled into the least stormy most safe sea
           | routes and accidents where lifeboats might help had reduced
           | year on year because it was already in everyone's interests -
           | cargo sellers, shipping industry, passengers, insurance
           | industry - to make that happen.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | We have very good weather prediction for _tomorrow_. For
             | longer airship trips like spending a few days crossing the
             | Pacific Ocean the exact tracks of storms are harder to
             | predict, and dangerous squalls can brew up with little
             | notice during certain seasons.
        
         | innagadadavida wrote:
         | If US, China and Taiwan situation escalates and US imposes a
         | naval blockade, this can be used to effectively circumvent it.
         | Perhaps China should invest in this.
        
           | pphysch wrote:
           | China has been investing in (non-sea) logistics routes for
           | over a decade. It's called the Belt and Road Initiative
           | (BRI).
           | 
           | To be clear, developing sea routes is also an aspect of it.
        
           | padobson wrote:
           | Massive airships flying 90/km an hours are LESS susceptible
           | to blockades than cargo ships? I think I'll need a little
           | more explanation than that. Seems like a shoulder-mounted
           | rocket launcher would be more than enough to bring one down.
        
             | stopping wrote:
             | Or a single tracer bullet, if it's filled with hydrogen.
        
               | chatmasta wrote:
               | Surely you could design some redundancy into the hull?
               | It's not like the ship needs to be one giant gas bubble.
               | It can be a mesh of a few hundred bubbles that could each
               | pop without bringing the whole thing down.
        
               | natpalmer1776 wrote:
               | So... 100 tracer bullets instead?
        
               | AlgorithmicTime wrote:
               | [dead]
        
           | LarryMullins wrote:
           | Now you've got me wondering if composite frame airships could
           | be made transparent to radar.
        
         | hguant wrote:
         | I know some of the Canadian provincial governments were looking
         | at using airships to provide a means of supplying some of the
         | more remote northern towns - because of weather/terrain
         | conditions, you can't build a rail head that far north, and the
         | roads aren't reliable, so light cargo planes are the only
         | reliable means of getting goods around. Airships, even of the
         | good year variety, would be far cheaper for the weight/volume
         | transported, but initial costs were prohibitive, if I recall
         | correctly
        
           | mastax wrote:
           | How do airships fare in bad weather?
        
             | 0xffff2 wrote:
             | Not very well. [0]
             | 
             | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Akron
        
               | worik wrote:
               | An extreme example. One extraordinary event is not very
               | good evidence.
               | 
               | The safety record of the Zepplin company in Germany is
               | very impressive
               | 
               | They had many failures, no fatalities. Until the
               | Hindenburg
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | The USS Akron, USS Shenandoah, and USS Macon all failed
               | due to bad weather. That's 3 of the US's 4 operational
               | airships. (Another airship was constructed for the US,
               | but was destroyed by poor handling before it was
               | delivered to the US.)
               | 
               | Of the British experience with airships, R101 outright
               | failed due to bad weather, and three more were scrapped
               | after suffering accidents during bad weather, out of a
               | total of 16 completed.
               | 
               | I don't feel like totting up the record of the Zeppelins,
               | but the Wikipedia page does indicate that several of them
               | failed due to weather incidents. One of the big lessons
               | from the most notable airship failures is that airships
               | _don 't really work in poor weather_, and safety in such
               | conditions means "don't even attempt to fly," which is a
               | pretty different rule than the one for airplanes or other
               | modes of transportation.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | I mean if the alternative transports also don't work in
               | bad weather I'm not sure you can use some failures to
               | disqualify airships.
               | 
               | So long as they work "more" days of the year it's a
               | better solution. Weather doesn't really sneak up on us
               | anymore.
        
         | hef19898 wrote:
         | No, the airship renaissance _was_ over a decade ago.
         | Cargolifter tried, and failed. From what I heard so, the water
         | and holiday park they built in the ex Cargolifter hangars has
         | to be quite good so.
        
       | jodrellblank wrote:
       | I'd like to draw your attention to " _killing 35 of the 97 people
       | on board in the inferno._ "
       | 
       | The Hindenburg had 7 million cubic feet of Hydrogen gas. It was
       | the biggest aircraft disaster of its time. It had such
       | rudimentary technology that the cockpit looked more like a
       | sailing ship than an aircraft[1]. Despite that, well over _half_
       | the passengers jumped out the windows[2], ran away and survived
       | with few or no injuries.
       | 
       | When was the last time a jumbo jet crash landed with complete
       | loss of the aircraft and all the combustible stuff burning it
       | into a molten metal heap, and half the passengers simply jumped
       | out and escaped? In terms of risk, fatality, and compared to
       | aircraft of the day, it was surprisingly good. And the huge
       | raging fire and prominent news footage of it being caught on
       | camera did it a bit of a disservice. By comparison, look at
       | Wikipedia's list of worst aircraft crashes[3], and see how many
       | are marked 'no survivors'. What if some of those "flew into a
       | mountain", "engines failed", "mid-air-collision" had been
       | captured on video in the earlier days of aviation, would we still
       | have widespread planes?
       | 
       | [1] https://www.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-
       | content/uploads/2019/02/i...
       | 
       | [2] https://www.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-
       | content/uploads/2019/02/i...
       | 
       | [3]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_aircraft_acc...
       | 
       | (NB. people now want aircraft which can legally be pushed
       | horizontally by hydrogen, but cannot legally be pushed upwards by
       | hydrogen.)
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | Jean-Philipe wrote:
         | I completely agree. In addition to that, the Nazis neglected a
         | lot security measures that this aircraft actually had in place.
         | There's a nice episode of "well there's your problem" on the
         | Hindenburg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chlF5oubFHU
        
         | LarryMullins wrote:
         | Everybody always focuses on the Hindenburg, but it's not as
         | though helium airships were much safer. In some scenarios they
         | were _marginally_ safer, but the deadliest airship disaster of
         | them all was the USS Akron, a helium airship. 73 dead and 3
         | survivors, vs the Hindenburg 's 36 dead and 62 survivors.
         | 
         | As for marginally safer: There were some cases of helium
         | airships breaking up due to weather and people surviving the
         | ride to the ground on still somewhat buoyant sections of the
         | destroyed airship, whereas that was less likely with hydrogen
         | airships because the wrecks would also burn. Compare the crash
         | of the USS Shenandoah to the British R101; both were destroyed
         | by bad weather but R101 had far fewer survivors because the
         | wreck burned. But even with helium, airships are still very
         | fragile and dangerous. Using helium isn't truly a panacea to
         | the hazards of airships.
        
           | jodrellblank wrote:
           | Even with the Akron, we're focusing on the first disaster and
           | not on the improvements or possible improvements since then.
           | 
           | Akron crashed into the Atlantic in April. " _Most casualties
           | had been caused by drowning and hypothermia, since the crew
           | had not been issued life jackets, and there had not been time
           | to deploy the single life raft._ "
           | 
           | Followed by: " _Macon and other airships received life
           | jackets to avert a repetition of this tragedy. When Macon was
           | damaged in a storm in 1935 and subsequently sank after
           | landing in the sea, 70 of the 72 crew were saved._ "
           | 
           | The R101 was a stupid tragedy - they designed and built it,
           | then extended it, then launched the first flight without
           | sufficient testing to learn how the extension had gone and
           | how it handled after, in poor weather conditions, because the
           | launch date had been decided by politicians as a piece of
           | propaganda about reaching the far corners of the British
           | Empire by airship.
        
             | LarryMullins wrote:
             | > _Followed by: "Macon and other airships received life
             | jackets to avert a repetition of this tragedy. When Macon
             | was damaged in a storm in 1935 and subsequently sank after
             | landing in the sea, 70 of the 72 crew were saved."_
             | 
             | Yeah, but notably they hadn't solved the problem of wind
             | tearing airships apart.
             | 
             | In the case of Macon they landed gently and in warm water,
             | and lifejackets certainly helped. But a soft landing is by
             | no means a guarantee in any airship crash, and even with
             | most people surviving the Navy still lost their investment
             | in the airship because of some wind. Putting lifejackets on
             | an airship flying over water should be common sense, but it
             | only makes the airship marginally safer. It's hard for
             | airships to be viable when they're so prone to tearing
             | apart and falling out of the sky.
        
               | BolexNOLA wrote:
               | I think his point is that most of these are measurable,
               | concrete problems that can be solved or mitigated enough
               | to be considered "safe," in the same way airplanes have
               | all sorts of risks and issues we solved or mitigated to
               | make them safer than the cars many use every day.
        
               | LarryMullins wrote:
               | The way I see it, aircraft have become mechanically
               | reliable and airships could become mechanically reliable
               | too. But airships will always be structurally vulnerable
               | relative to aircraft. They're inherently very light with
               | very large surface areas and there's no way around this.
        
               | snovv_crash wrote:
               | The strength to weight ratio of a carbon fibre
               | scaffolding would be far superior to steel.
        
               | bboygravity wrote:
               | Isn't the clothy stuff the problem though rather than the
               | scaffolding?
               | 
               | Same on most sailboats: what makes them get into trouble
               | is not the hull cracking but rather the sail tearing up
               | in a storm or the mast snapping off and making them
               | uncontrollable / sink.
               | 
               | (Im guessing out loud here, statements probably wrong)
        
               | aintgonnatakeit wrote:
               | If the clothy bits tear on a sailboat it's an
               | inconvenience. When the hard bits (eg keel) fail, it's a
               | problem.
        
               | zztop44 wrote:
               | Mast snapping happens. Rudder snapping off is also bad.
               | Often the issue is running into rocks/a reef due to a
               | navigation failure. Sails do tear, but for sailboats I
               | don't think it's as simple as the clothy bits being the
               | main weak point. I don't know about airships though.
        
           | worik wrote:
           | > But even with helium, airships are still very fragile and
           | dangerous.
           | 
           | True. But with high speed landing and takeoff aeroplanes are
           | extremely dangerous too.
           | 
           | Thousands of gallons of high octane fuell in the tanks on
           | board does not help
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | > high octane fuel
             | 
             | Doesn't jet fuel have a relatively low octane rating
             | compared to most liquid fuels?
        
               | impossiblefork wrote:
               | Yes, but this octane-fire mixing is a bunch of confusion
               | to begin with.
               | 
               | Gasoline is less ready to ignite than diesel~=jet fuel,
               | but has fumes.
               | 
               | Diesel~=jet fuel has little fumes, but is easier to
               | ignite by heat, i.e. in an engine, but it will almost
               | never be ignited outside of an engine. Meanwhile,
               | gasoline is hard to ignite with heat and pressure in an
               | engine, but easier to ignite in air than diesel.
               | 
               | Octane also has a higher boiling point than for example
               | heptane, so higher octane fuel is probably not related to
               | easy of ignition due to the fumes either.
        
               | LarryMullins wrote:
               | Yes, but I think he's using it in the colloquial sense
               | that means "highly energetic".
        
               | bruce511 wrote:
               | It depends on the plane, but both your point and the
               | parent point are correct.
               | 
               | Piston engines run on high octane gasoline (Avgas) . This
               | is the stuff that powered planes up to, and just past,
               | ww2. Today it's still used in planes from that era, and
               | some smaller general aviation planes.
               | 
               | Jet fuel (jet a1) is basically paraffin. All turbine
               | engines (think "jets", but also turbofan etc) run on
               | this. It's a lot less flammable than Avgas, but, well,
               | still makes a big bang if you fly it into a mountain.
               | 
               | In short both are dangerous because they are high-density
               | liquid energy. Hydrogen is also dangerous, and there does
               | appear to be a double standard here.
        
               | throwaway894345 wrote:
               | > Hydrogen is also dangerous, and there does appear to be
               | a double standard here.
               | 
               | I don't have beef with hydrogen, but I suspect it's a lot
               | easier to secure fuel in a liquid state versus a gaseous
               | state. Putting a lot of hydrogen in a relatively small
               | steel container for use in an engine seems quite a lot
               | safer than putting it in a big bubble and then dangling
               | people from it. But I am not an aerospace engineer, could
               | be wrong, etc.
        
               | avereveard wrote:
               | You can dump plane fuel before an emergency landing,
               | making the whole process safer. it's not just double
               | standards.
        
         | credit_guy wrote:
         | There's actually no need for hydrogen. Helium would do just
         | fine. From the blog post, filling the hypothetical airship with
         | helium would cost $8 MM, while filling it with hydrogen would
         | cost only $100k. Sounds like a no brainer. But, the overall
         | cost of the airship would be at $100 MM. Hydrogen would result
         | in a less than 10% cost reduction.
         | 
         | Now, the FAA approved unleaded jet fuel in 2022. Yes, that's
         | how conservative FAA is. We'll sooner achieve world peace than
         | the FAA would approve hydrogen for airships.
        
           | kurthr wrote:
           | So, if filling your gas tank cost 8% of the price of your
           | car... you'ld think nothing of it? Lift gas leaks (esp He)
           | and gets vented. So this seems odd to me. It's kinda like
           | buying your car again every few months to a year or paying
           | $250/gal to fill up. Now 80x lower at 0.1% of the car price
           | you're in the regime where it's negligible like an EV.
        
             | LarryMullins wrote:
             | > _Lift gas leaks (esp He)_
             | 
             | Hydrogen more than helium, I believe.
        
               | kurthr wrote:
               | Each Hydrogen molecule is more reactive, but actually a
               | larger molecule (less leaky) because there are two (it's
               | diatomic H2 rather than monoatomic He).
               | 
               | Now it does get complicated, because the simple atomic
               | radii aren't sufficient when you start bouncing around
               | and leaking through other materials, but suffice it to
               | say that He is still smaller once you look at the Vander
               | Walls attraction and everything. It may only be 10%
               | smaller, but that leads to at least a 20% lower leak
               | rate.
               | 
               | https://bbblimp.com/2021/09/17/helium-vs-hydrogen-atom-
               | size/
        
           | TylerE wrote:
           | Lift gas is a consumable. You have to vent it to descend in
           | many cases, and that's ignoring the inevitable leaks and
           | diffusion.
        
             | worik wrote:
             | > Lift gas is a consumable. You have to vent it to descend
             | in many cases, and that's ignoring the inevitable leaks and
             | diffusion
             | 
             | Helium blimps compression the gas to lower buoyancy
        
           | tiagod wrote:
           | Preventing the helium from leaking out of wherever its stored
           | is challenging, it's not a "fill once and forget about it"
           | kind of deal. Helium is bound to get more expensive too.
        
           | jodrellblank wrote:
           | Helium is a non-renewable resource drilled out of the ground,
           | of which there is a global 'crisis' shortage[1]. Hydrogen is
           | easy to make in vast quantities and cheaper. But more
           | importantly, while they have similar lift capacities on paper
           | (Helium ~90% of Hydrogen), in practice they don't -
           | https://www.airships.net/helium-hydrogen-airships/ has an
           | explanation and calculations.
           | 
           | Hydrogen lift airships set off fully inflated and vent
           | Hydrogen along the way for control of altitude and to stop
           | their lift cells expanding too much as they rise into lower
           | pressure air; Helium is too expensive to vent casually, so
           | they have to start less inflated to protect the lift cells,
           | and other concerns so Helium lift ends up with half the
           | payload carrying capacity, less fuel, shorter flight
           | distances.
           | 
           | And, nb. the deadliest airship disaster was the USS Akron
           | which was was a Helium lift airship which crashed in a storm
           | with 73 deaths and 3 survivors. It's not as simple as
           | Hydrogen = danger, Helium = safe.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/omerawan/2022/11/10/the-
           | helium-...
        
             | pkulak wrote:
             | I wonder if you could use a fuel cell to get power from the
             | hydrogen you'd otherwise vent.
        
             | triceratops wrote:
             | If fusion power takes off, could you produce helium as a
             | by-product?
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | Basically, no: https://www.jerf.org/iri/post/2922/
               | 
               | And that assumes perfect capture, too.
               | 
               | If you're going that route it'd probably be better to
               | just use hot air with the energy.
        
               | jasamer wrote:
               | Probably, but the amount would be tiny. ITER is trying to
               | generate 500 megawatt from a half-gram of hydrogen.
        
               | mpwoz wrote:
               | There's a fusion startup called Helion near Seattle
               | working on this, it'll be really exciting if it pans out
               | at scale.
               | 
               | This video was a fascinating watch:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38
        
               | aae42 wrote:
               | if we figured out fusion, it would alter the economics of
               | all of this
               | 
               | why not fusion powered ships/trains/airplanes
        
               | worik wrote:
               | > why not fusion powered ships/trains/airplanes[?]
               | 
               | What could possibly go wrong?
        
               | jasamer wrote:
               | Afaik what makes fusion hard is maintaining the
               | conditions that allow fusion to occur. Because of this,
               | it's quite safe - if anything goes wrong, it'll just stop
               | working.
        
               | chrisco255 wrote:
               | We already have fission powered ships and submarines.
        
               | jodrellblank wrote:
               | We almost had fission powered airplanes and airships:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_aircraft
               | 
               | and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_CL-1201
               | 
               | And dreams of fission trains:
               | https://twsmedia.co.uk/2020/05/09/atomic-trains/
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Yeah hydrogen sounds like it could even be safer given that
             | you get a larger buoyancy buffer to fight downdrafts? It's
             | a real public misconception that it just explodes from all
             | those oxyhydrogen experiments at chemistry class, but pure
             | hydrogen such as in airships just slowly burns, much like
             | any other fuel we fill our planes with.
             | 
             | The main problem is still that you need to contain a large
             | volume, which will inevitably get pushed around by wind
             | more than you can compensate for.
        
           | mikepurvis wrote:
           | As a noble gas, helium can't be synthesized, so its cost is
           | because of its scarcity-- and because it's a small molecule
           | (like hydrogen), you inevitably lose some and require
           | continuous top-ups.
           | 
           | None of this sounds like it would be realistic at scale, no
           | matter the amount of money in play.
        
           | BeefySwain wrote:
           | You may have overlooked the part where filling the quantity
           | of airships that would (theoretically) be used would
           | represent over half of the KNOWN quantity exploitable on
           | earth, and would take decades to produce at current
           | production rates. Also, they would need topped up over time.
           | Compared to hydrogen, which is cheap, available, and
           | renewable.
        
             | credit_guy wrote:
             | > KNOWN quantity exploitable on earth
             | 
             | It's great that you emphasized "known".
             | 
             | Knowledge is not a static thing. Also what's economically
             | exploitable is a variable thing.
             | 
             | Currently, the US produces 40% of the world's helium,
             | despite producing only 25% of the world's natural gas. Is
             | it because the US has drawn a lucky lottery ticket for
             | helium?
             | 
             | That's very unlikely. Helium is being produced continuously
             | inside Earth as the alpha particles generated during the
             | radioactive decay of some elements (mainly Uranium and
             | Thorium, but Radon too). It seeps upward, and it generally
             | escapes in the atmosphere, but some of it gets trapped in
             | the same geological formations that trap natural gas.
             | 
             | In most places people don't bother to see how much helium
             | there is in natural gas. They just sell the gas and take
             | the money. Separating helium can increase the profitability
             | a bit, but it depends on how cheaply you can do the
             | separation. It's very likely that the US has better
             | technology than the rest of the world, and because of that
             | it separates more helium for the same quantity of natural
             | gas.
             | 
             | As the technology will spread out, more helium will become
             | recoverable.
             | 
             | Also, it may come as a tautology, but more helium is
             | economically recoverable if its price goes up.
        
           | dwighttk wrote:
           | Author mentioned a market for 25K of these airships, which is
           | like half the helium on earth the _first time_ you fill them
           | up. $8M will go up once you start building
        
           | kortilla wrote:
           | The FAA approved modifications to piston engines to use
           | unleaded avgas. Jet fuel doesn't have lead.
           | 
           | Also, this isn't about the FAA just being slow for no reason.
           | Switching from leaded to unleaded without the engine
           | modifications was not safe for the piston aircraft that need
           | it.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_fuel
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avgas
        
             | coryrc wrote:
             | It's not safe for us to be breathing. But that doesn't
             | matter to cheapskate rich private plane owners or their
             | regulatory-captured FAA.
        
               | kortilla wrote:
               | Nothing is stopping the EPA from banning it regardless of
               | what the FAA wants. The FAA doesn't regulate emissions.
        
               | LarryMullins wrote:
               | The really rich private plane owners all have planes that
               | burn jet fuel, which is always unleaded. The piston
               | planes are generally owned by "doctor rich" upper-middle
               | class people, who have political influence to be sure but
               | they're hardly the billionaires that might be known by
               | name to politicians.
               | 
               | I think it's more likely that the FAA protects general
               | aviation because general aviation is part of the
               | professional pilot training pipeline.
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | [flagged]
        
               | LarryMullins wrote:
               | > _Ah, if you 're only "doctor rich" then it's okay to
               | poison children!_
               | 
               | That's not what I said _and you know it._
               | 
               | > _GA is responsible for 50% of lead emissions!_
               | 
               | Little lead is emitted at all these days, because leaded
               | gasoline was banned in _almost_ all circumstances. So you
               | 're talking about 50% of "not much". I'd be happy to see
               | it banned completely since there are now viable
               | alternatives, but I think you're going a little bit too
               | hard with this class war narrative.
        
               | Johnny555 wrote:
               | The people that are below "doctor rich" just rent their
               | planes from the FBO, a cheap piston plane can rent for
               | $125-$175/hour. So you can get in a couple hours of
               | flying for what it costs a couple to go to a football
               | game.
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | > What if some of those "flew into a mountain", "engines
         | failed", "mid-air-collision" had been captured on video
         | 
         | I'm now picturing how each of these situations would look with
         | airships.
         | 
         | Most of them, in my mind, make a very nice "Boink" sound.
        
           | andrewflnr wrote:
           | My guess is the relevant sound is _rrrrrrip_.
        
             | flavius29663 wrote:
             | airships have multiple cells though, a single rip wouldn't
             | doom the entire thing
        
               | LarryMullins wrote:
               | But what caused the airship to rip? If it was wind, then
               | you now have that same destructive wind ripping through
               | the inside of your airship through the hole.
        
               | andrewflnr wrote:
               | I mean, I was specifically talking about the collision
               | scenario...
        
             | mikepurvis wrote:
             | Even still though, you'd come down to the ground for a
             | soft-ish landing (relative to a jet or helicopter, anyway).
        
         | evrimoztamur wrote:
         | Aircraft today are so safe because we had decades of
         | improvements in both engineering and safety regulations. I am
         | adamant that we could improve reliability and reduce potential
         | damage in accidents so as long as we apply the same principles
         | to airships.
        
           | LarryMullins wrote:
           | Aircraft survive because they're mechanically reliable, and
           | airships could also be made mechanically reliable. But
           | aircraft also survive because they're reasonably robust in
           | adverse environmental conditions. Airships aren't and never
           | will be, because they have to be built very large and very
           | light or they don't work at all. Furthermore airships are
           | slower and harder to hanger, which makes it even harder for
           | airships to avoid bad weather. Better weather forecasting
           | could help some, but keeping airships out of storms really is
           | of the utmost importance.
        
         | hedora wrote:
         | People often forget that the metallic paint used to coat the
         | Hindenberg is now used as solid state jet fuel.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | I guess the last time was in 2013. Asiana Airlines Flight 214,
         | a Boeing 777 jumbo jet, crashed at SFO with only 3 fatalities.
         | Those are tough airplanes and low-speed crashes are often
         | survivable if passengers can evacuate before the inevitable
         | fire spreads.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asiana_Airlines_Flight_214?wpr...
         | 
         | It was kind of freaky seeing the burned-out wreck sitting next
         | to the runway when I flew out of SFO a few days later.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | I was going to say that the 777 isn't a jumbo, but it looks
           | like they're now calling it a 'mini jumbo'. Feelings of
           | inadequacy, I guess, compared to the 747.
        
             | VBprogrammer wrote:
             | Meh, terms like this are pointless. Completely arbitrary
             | where you put them.
             | 
             | It's probably more sensible to use terms like wide body,
             | implying 2 aisles.
        
         | hackerlight wrote:
         | You have to multiply by the respective probabilities of both of
         | these things happening to arrive at the expected number of
         | deaths. 0.01*(35/97) would be significantly bigger than
         | 0.000001*(97/97), as a hypothetical example.
         | 
         | That said, planes have had years of safety R&D which helps get
         | that number down to 0.000001, and maybe the same could have
         | been done with blimps if they were given the opportunity?
        
       | holyknight wrote:
       | damn, this concept is mind boggling
        
       | guruz wrote:
       | Germany's cargo airship project is now an indoor waterpark
       | located in Brandenburg (close to Berlin)
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Islands_Resort
       | 
       | (With rising energy costs, hopefully it can stay like this for a
       | while)
        
         | vintermann wrote:
         | One of Germany's cargo airship projects. I'm pretty sure there
         | have been more, but none got as far as Cargolifter (for cargo.
         | For more modest ambitions, the Zeppelin NTs out of Bodensee are
         | still going strong, 25 years on).
        
         | aeyes wrote:
         | Their argument is that it is less polluting because people
         | don't have to fly to have a tropical vacation. It seems to
         | work, they are constantly expanding.
         | 
         | I went last December, the place was packed. Surprisingly I'd
         | say about 40% of the guests were foreigners. It's nice but I
         | don't know if I'd want to stay a whole week.
        
         | aidenn0 wrote:
         | Seems like Germans like to turn anything into a water
         | attraction (e.g. Kiesgruben)...
        
       | newaccount2021 wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | cameronh90 wrote:
       | As the article says at the end, a key technology here is
       | automation.
       | 
       | Lots of cargo isn't time sensitive, but paying a load of crew to
       | take shifts sailing it slowly over the Pacific will kill the
       | economic viability. Additionally, making it unmanned gets rid of
       | a lot of the safety concerns, especially if you're going to use
       | hydrogen and run them primarily over water.
       | 
       | Still, hard to see the advantages compared to container ships.
        
         | waynenilsen wrote:
         | It seems about 2x faster plus overland capabilities should be
         | great for some use cases that currently depend on canals.
        
       | ChuckMcM wrote:
       | Zeppelin is still around : https://zeppelinflug.de/de/
       | 
       | (or more accurately it restarted)
        
       | sitkack wrote:
       | The article completely omits trains. That is glaring.
       | 
       | I had this steampunk like plan when I was in college to have huge
       | hydrogen cargo airships pulled by trains to haul large bulk items
       | (fully assembled houses, building parts, large trees, fully
       | assembled combines, etc). A literal skytrain.
       | 
       | Some new lines would have to be created a way to handle going
       | through tunnels etc. I think now I would have a drone be able to
       | connect and unconnect the tether and the airship would be able to
       | be autonomous for period of time and reconnect. Or a small track
       | could be run just to connect the small tug needed to pull the
       | airship.
        
         | the_cat_kittles wrote:
         | this is kind of like the old idea of a tow-path. those work by
         | floating the cargo on the river and pulling it with horses next
         | to the river. I really like the idea of pulling cargo floating
         | in air with trains, since trains already exist, and its also
         | visually entertaining. im curious what the numbers would look
         | like, since trains are very efficient for each marginal mile i
         | think? also im not sure what you would do about a wind storm
         | haha.
        
         | MagicMoonlight wrote:
         | Trains can't cross oceans or cover long distances or
         | dynamically change routes
        
           | genderwhy wrote:
           | Trains can't cover long distances? Surely that's a typo --
           | trains can cover incredible distances...
           | 
           | And they can change routes within their network. So yes,
           | there's some cost to get train stations and tracks built, but
           | afterwards they can visit anywhere within the network and
           | carry a whole lot more than airships.
           | 
           | Fair point on the oceans thing though.
        
       | carapace wrote:
       | I've been slowly and sporadically working towards making large
       | airships. Basically you make a large (like a square kilometer or
       | more) rigid kite (see Alex G. Bell's cellular kites) and add
       | enough drone guts to make it into a giant drone. Then you lodge
       | an Airstream trailer or something in it.
       | 
       | I'm not an engineer, but the small models I've built make me
       | think that there's no effective upper limit on the size of these
       | structures. I think you could build a kite that girdled the
       | world, an arch with no pillars.
       | 
       | I've got all the parts now for a first prototype, but I don't
       | have any room to build it, so I'm studying origami etc. to design
       | a folding version. It's a PITA but the designs are pretty: like a
       | blooming flower, (like
       | https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/learn/project/space-origami-mak... )
        
         | Someone wrote:
         | > Basically you make a large (like a square kilometer or more)
         | rigid kite (see Alex G. Bell's cellular kites)
         | 
         | Those were incredible
         | (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alexander-
         | graham-...), but it would surprise me if you could scale them
         | up to a kilometer in size.
         | 
         | Also, from that article:
         | 
         |  _"Aggregated rectangles increased kite weight faster than they
         | expanded wing surface area. Tetrahedrons kept the ratio nearly
         | constant."_
         | 
         | That _nearly_ makes me think that, even if you wouldn't need
         | stronger beams for huge kites, a huge number of kites connected
         | to each other would provide less lifting weight than the sum of
         | the lifting weights of the individual kites.
         | 
         | > I think you could build a kite that girdled the world, an
         | arch with no pillars [...] but I don't have any room to build
         | it.
         | 
         | Doesn't surprise me ;-)
        
           | carapace wrote:
           | > but it would surprise me if you could scale them up to a
           | kilometer in size.
           | 
           | It's like the intuitive argument that heavier objects fall at
           | the same rate as lighter objects: throw two shoes off the
           | roof, if you tie their shoelaces together will they fall
           | faster? You start with N kites and connect them, each kite
           | retains its airworthiness and connecting them doesn't change
           | that.
           | 
           | > nearly [constant]
           | 
           | The ratio falls off much slower than lifts add as you get
           | bigger.
           | 
           | > you wouldn't need stronger beams for huge kites
           | 
           | I don't think so, because you're just connecting small kites
           | together, but you need to be flexible, or maybe modulate the
           | airfoils' area (maybe open/close like butterfly wings.)
           | 
           | > a huge number of kites connected to each other would
           | provide less lifting weight than the sum of the lifting
           | weights of the individual kites.
           | 
           | If you just make a ball or cube, sure, but that's optional,
           | eh? Most of my designs come out looking like modified 3D
           | Sierpinski gaskets.
        
             | Someone wrote:
             | > You start with N kites and connect them, each kite
             | retains its airworthiness and connecting them doesn't
             | change that.
             | 
             | If you do that, you have N wires between the kites and the
             | ground.
             | 
             | Keeping them untangled may be a problem. Your best bet
             | probably is tying them together and having only one thicker
             | wire towards the ground.
             | 
             | Making sure each of those wires takes 1/Nth of the load
             | from the wind definitely will be a problem, even in a
             | perfectly stable uniform wind. If you can't guarantee that,
             | you'll have to make the wires a bit stronger than for the
             | individual kites.
             | 
             | If you think "we won't need 1 wire for each small kite",
             | you'll need to make the connections between the kites
             | stronger. To see why, think of the similar problem of a
             | plank over a ditch. If a 1m plank over a 80cm ditch just
             | holds your weight, do you think a similar 25m plank over a
             | 20m ditch will hold you, standing in the center of the
             | plank? Do you think it will hold 25 persons along its
             | length?
        
       | xg15 wrote:
       | Ok, so I love his enthusiasm, but when someone proposes a
       | hydrogen/propane/ethane mixture as lifting gas and support struts
       | made of magnesium, I'd like a few more details on how to deal
       | with the problem of everything bursting into flames than "we'll
       | deal with the risk and do some clever engineering" :)
        
       | jacknews wrote:
       | There's no doubt they'll be big, but will they be practical,
       | economically viable and successful?
        
         | qikInNdOutReply wrote:
         | they could automate overseas transport of (e.g. fruit and other
         | time-critical) cargo, with no pilots and very much reduced
         | fligth costs, while being much faster then ships. Then off the
         | coast its remote take-over and steering towards the freight
         | air-port of destination.
         | 
         | The critical part here is good enough automation to keep the
         | thing on track and prevent accidents, while not trying to
         | integrate it into the airways like a traditional plane.
         | 
         | They might even over time grow into a "2nd class - slow - but
         | cheaper transport" for people in no hurry, but with limited
         | funds.
         | 
         | PS: It failed before though..
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CargoLifter investors beware..
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | It is highly unlikely that uncrewed cargo aircraft will be
           | allowed to operate in most US airspace any time soon. They
           | can't reliably see and avoid other aircraft operating under
           | VFR, and so are restricted to only limited designated
           | airspace.
           | 
           | Airships are unable to cruise at high altitude due to loss of
           | lift, and are vulnerable to damage from severe weather. For
           | ocean routes it's not always possible to route around storms.
           | 
           | People keep wanting cargo airships to be a thing for some
           | reason. It's not likely to happen. The costs are too high and
           | the range of potential applications too limited to produce a
           | real industry. At most we might see some limited military use
           | where cost is less of a factor.
        
             | mupuff1234 wrote:
             | Are remote crews an option?
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Not an option under current FAA rules. The available
               | optical sensors are still generally inferior to human
               | eyes in terms of dynamic range, depth perception, and
               | slew rate. The US military does fly remote-piloted
               | aircraft (Predators being the most prominent example) but
               | they're only allowed to operate in limited pieces of
               | designated airspace due to the risk of midair collisions.
               | 
               | Communications reliability and latency is a problem. We
               | still have no way to guarantee solid bidirectional comms.
               | The mishap rate for RPVs is much higher than for
               | comparable manned aircraft.
        
             | actionfromafar wrote:
             | If/when forecasts will be good enough to only dispatch and
             | route airships when they can be safely flown to either
             | destination or safe harbor, is the wildcard I could imagine
             | to make them viable options. But as you say, is the niche
             | large enough to make work?
             | 
             | I think the pull for wanting them isn't so strange - they
             | offer the promise of much lower fuel costs, which is a big
             | stigma and problem of current aircraft.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | The atmosphere is a chaotic system. How could forecasts
               | be improved enough to enable safe flights across the
               | Pacific Ocean during storm season?
               | 
               | Concerns over fuel costs seem a bit silly as those are
               | only a fraction of air cargo costs. There are significant
               | fuel efficiency improvements already in the development
               | pipeline with lighter composite structures, higher aspect
               | ratio wings, open rotor turbine engines, and perhaps even
               | blended wing-body fuselages.
        
           | LatteLazy wrote:
           | I don't think you can send perishable goods via a very slow
           | and delay prone transport medium. More likely this can be
           | used for the opposite sort of goods: durable, low urgency
           | supplies.
        
             | bmelton wrote:
             | They are only 'very slow' when compared to aircraft, which
             | are kind of poor vehicles for transporting cargo in the
             | first place.
             | 
             | A dirigible flying with the jetstream is almost twice as
             | fast as a cargo ship doing the same.
             | 
             | I think they're impractical for lots and lots of other
             | reasons, and your "delay-prone" critique is probably
             | salient, but "slow" needs to be contextualized somewhat.
        
               | LatteLazy wrote:
               | Twice as fast as a cargo ship is still only 50kph right?
               | 
               | And the Jet stream only goes one way and only West to
               | East (in the northern hemisphere) and only at certain
               | latitudes right?
               | 
               | So if you're only competing against cargo ships. And you
               | happen to want to head East (only, no returns). And you
               | need to go faster than a ship, but not over 100kph. And
               | you are already at the right latitude and so it your
               | destination. And you're cargo is not going to perish any
               | time soon, and is not too dense, then this can work?
        
               | bmelton wrote:
               | You're exactly right, but perhaps missed that the trade
               | route you're describing is China to Los Angeles, which
               | alone accounts for $132 billion in trade every year, and
               | perhaps that cargo vessels allegedly account for 20-25%
               | of anthropomorphic carbon emissions.
               | 
               | Also probably worth pointing out that airships going
               | _against_ the jetstream are still faster than cargo ships
               | which are also going against sea currents.
               | 
               | I'll repeat my disclaimer again here, that "I think
               | they're impractical for lots and lots of other reasons"
               | but there is a definite benefit to cutting the carbon
               | emissions of the world's most popular trade route by 90%
               | and halving the time spent in transit even if you assume
               | that there are no other applications, which is probably
               | not correct.
        
           | hengheng wrote:
           | I'm not comfortable relying on these being crewless, I've
           | seen too many mobility projects die. When freight trains and
           | trucks can operate crewed, a cargo airship will have no
           | different rules to profitability.
        
         | traceroute66 wrote:
         | > There's no doubt they'll be big, but will they be practical,
         | economically viable and successful?
         | 
         | Frankly no.
         | 
         | Its like every few years people remember about airships and
         | suddenly start shouting how its the answer to the world's
         | problems.
         | 
         | I mean, just search here on HN... 11 years ago there was
         | "Blimpocracy - Is the airship the transportation system of the
         | future?"[1] .... now here we are 11 years later, and, well,
         | yeah ...
         | 
         | The trouble is that the present system already works well.
         | 
         | If it's not urgent, you can put tons of it on a massive ship.
         | That ship can make multiple stops along the way.
         | 
         | If it's urgent, you can put it on a plane. Modern airfreight is
         | reasonably efficient and not _that_ expensive.
         | 
         | I really don't see what airships all bring to the party. Except
         | perhaps being a slow-moving target for miscreants and bringing
         | high-profile failures in newspaper headlines.
         | 
         | As for the people who say combine AI + airships ... yeah, like
         | that's going to seriously happen any time soon. AI can't even
         | do FSD in a Tesla properly yet. Putting AI in an airship, in
         | today's complex busy airspace, add in real-life weather
         | conditions and real-life technical issues ... yeah, erm, thanks
         | but no thanks.
         | 
         | [1]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3000819
        
           | jodrellblank wrote:
           | > " _I really don 't see what airships all bring to the
           | party_"
           | 
           | Heavy lift. Put hundreds of tons of house(s) from a house
           | factory or skyscraper level(s) from a skyscraper factory on
           | them, airlift them to the building site around the country.
           | 
           | Centralise most of the building work in one efficient scaled
           | up factory, deliver an enormous buildings quickly piece by
           | piece by air instead of slowly by having all the parts driven
           | around windy roads and through closed city streets and
           | assembled by a crews of people travelling to the building
           | site and home every day.
        
           | djtango wrote:
           | What about places with limited rail/roads like Alaska and
           | Kazakhstan?
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | As I recall, about 1/3 of the population of Alaska is in
             | the vicinity of Anchorage which has a port and is connected
             | to Fairbanks by road. Juneau, the third largest city, is
             | also on the water--as are other cities in Southeast Alaska.
             | Many other cities--such as they are (the 4th largest city
             | in Alaska has a population of 20,000)--are also on the
             | ocean.
        
             | jcranmer wrote:
             | In general, where there's limited infrastructure, there's
             | limited _demand_ for infrastructure.
             | 
             | I can't speak for Kazakhstan, but most of rural Alaska is
             | adequately serviced using tiny Cessna-sized aircraft for
             | shipping, and the parts that aren't (say, Prudhoe Bay)
             | already have existing ground and/or marine infrastructure
             | to supply them.
        
             | traceroute66 wrote:
             | > What about places with limited rail/roads like Alaska and
             | Kazakhstan?
             | 
             | What about them ?
             | 
             | If there's no cargo facility there already, then nobody's
             | going to suddenly turn up and build an airshipport (or
             | whatever you want to call it).
             | 
             | The way modern day logistics works is like an inverse
             | pyramid, you fly/ship/train in bulk somewhere, and then you
             | go smaller and smaller scale to the remote/rural areas ...
             | right down to a man on a bicycle or whatever.
             | 
             | Cargo airships, _IF_ they ever happen, are not going to
             | change the fundamental way modern logistics works. Basic
             | economies of supply and demand. Sending the man on the
             | bicycle will always be the cheapest and most sensible
             | option for remote areas where only a handful of people
             | live, especially if they live many miles from each other
             | (e.g. rural farming).
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | fiat_fandango wrote:
       | Iranian missile boats are going to have a field day with these...
        
       | Overtonwindow wrote:
       | Airships have one, tremendous problem: Hydrogen. Helium is too
       | expensive and is running out, and hydrogen, well see the
       | Hindenburg. There's a lot of research into "safe hydrogen" but
       | despite decades of research (and money) there has not been any
       | success. Until you can overcome the fizzy lifting gas issue
       | airships will remain a dream.
        
         | actionfromafar wrote:
         | Your not trying very hard to shift what's acceptable to talk
         | about. :-)
        
         | cityofdelusion wrote:
         | The article proposes autonomous unmanned cargo airships. Does
         | the world care about "safe hydrogen" in this application? Most
         | zeppelin disasters involved weather or mooring issues, not
         | fire, and usually injured crew/passengers, not ground crew.
        
       | oblak wrote:
       | CAPTAIN: All aboard for safety and adventure on the rigid airship
       | Excelsior, where the pampered luxury of a cruise ship meets the
       | smoothness of modern air travel. Yes, when you fly Excelsior,
       | you're flying in style and safety.
       | 
       | TIMMY: Safety? But isn't hydrogen flammable?
       | 
       | CAPTAIN: And how, Timmy. That's why Excelsior is filled with
       | safe, natural helium. Why, it's actually flame-retardant.
       | 
       | TIMMY: Neat!
       | 
       | CAPTAIN: And safe. So, whether you're enjoying excelsior's
       | majestic vistas, duty-free shopping, high-stakes baccarat,
       | dancing with your lovely wife, or even a cigar after a french
       | gourmet dinner, you'll be enjoying them in style and safety. All
       | aboard Excelsior!
        
       | rob74 wrote:
       | > _Second, some modes are missing because a lot of countries are
       | not connected by land. Looking at US import and export data, and
       | excluding Canada and Mexico where US roads, rail, and pipelines
       | connect, water transportation has claimed the majority of both
       | the tonnage and the value._
       | 
       | Er... what? Just because you can't ship stuff between _some_
       | countries by land, they 're ignoring _all_ cargo shipped by rail
       | and truck internationally? Sounds like throwing the baby out with
       | the bathwater...
        
         | twelve40 wrote:
         | he says throughout the post that the main focus is
         | intercontinental cargo market
        
       | btilly wrote:
       | It is fun to read the analysis.
       | 
       | But they are right that we don't have the ability to make enough
       | helium to make that make sense. I can believe that hydrogen can
       | be made to work. But when they got to making the frame out of
       | magnesium - a leak in the rain would be scary!
       | 
       | This is one of those ideas that seems better in theory than
       | practice. Not as bad as the fact that adding mercury to rocket
       | fuel makes it go better. But still not a great thing to do.
       | 
       | For those who are puzzled at the mercury comment, energy is
       | proportional to mv^2/2 while momentum is mv. Mercury takes away a
       | bit from the energy, but increases the density, and therefore
       | gives you more momentum per unit of fuel. It is a great theory,
       | ruined by the fact that we'd be spraying nasty poisons
       | everywhere.
        
         | greesil wrote:
         | I don't understand this. LH2/LOX typically burns on the rich
         | side to increase exhaust velocity. This means more momentum for
         | less mass, which is what you want from a rocket. This is the
         | opposite.
        
           | black6 wrote:
           | John Clark goes into detail in his book Ignition! about why
           | smaller, lighter exhaust molecules are much better than
           | larger and heavier ones.
        
             | btilly wrote:
             | John Clark also was the one who proposed adding mercury. It
             | was a joke, that the military types didn't realize was a
             | joke.
             | 
             | Read https://library.sciencemadness.org/library/books/ignit
             | ion.pd... pages 193-196 in the PDF for the full story.
        
               | sitkack wrote:
               | One has to be really really careful when cracking these
               | kinds of jokes, one really has to weigh the downside of
               | it being taken seriously.
               | 
               | I'll still do it, on an ephemeral medium, and then spoil
               | it seconds later. That is only way it can be delivered.
        
       | andrewflnr wrote:
       | The suggestion to use a magnesium frame, in combination with
       | hydrogen for lift, is kind of hysterical. Why _not_ use a
       | flammable metal with your flammable lifting gas? I won 't even be
       | shocked if it works, but it would still be a hell of a thing.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | You need oxygen to get to the flammable material to burn it.
         | For magnesium that means grinding it to a fine powder that
         | burns really quick. Otherwise, it will just oxidize at the
         | surface and be quite boring and inert. It's a common metal used
         | for all sorts of engineering. E.g. German WWII era planes used
         | some magnesium parts.
         | 
         | Iron also burns if you grind it to a fine powder. You can try
         | that out if you have some steel wool. It's just an exothermic
         | oxydation process. The more surface area the hotter it burns.
         | Magnesium just burns a bit hotter. Most of the colors in
         | fireworks are just different metal powders burning.
         | 
         | And for hydrogen, you need to mix it with oxygen to get a
         | flammable mixture. So, a large mass of hydrogen is explosive in
         | the same sense that a few tonnes of kerosene is explosive. I.e.
         | not that much at all. Also, hydrogen is light. If you have a
         | leak you go down, and the hydrogen goes up very rapidly. It
         | doesn't stick around.
         | 
         | They did this routinely in the 1930s. It wasn't much of an
         | issue then. The theories of what happened to the hindenburg
         | vary a bit but it seems as it didn't explode so much as burn.
         | Probably most of the hydrogen escaped before it could burn.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_disaster
         | 
         | Interesting read. Quite a few people actually survived. I'm
         | sure these things could be engineered to a much higher safety
         | standard now.
        
       | ambientlight wrote:
       | Great book on this topic:
       | https://www.cambridge.org/tv/academic/subjects/engineering/a...
        
       | billbrown wrote:
       | Great essay. How he failed to mention Hybrid Air Vehicles
       | Airlander is beyond me, though.
       | 
       | https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/
        
       | hnarn wrote:
       | If something doesn't exist, especially when it's something that
       | has existed in the past but no longer does, there's usually a
       | good reason for it. It's not a natural law, but it's a good rule
       | of thumb to use to initially question and defend a
       | "groundbreaking" idea.
       | 
       | A quick search online tells me that ocean freight is about
       | $1.3/lbs and air freight is about $5.3/lbs. Since we already know
       | that "airships" would likely never be more convenient than
       | existing air cargo, their only way of succeeding is if they found
       | a place between 1.3-5.3 where the cost savings felt motivated to
       | sacrifice regular air freight, while being many orders of
       | magnitude better than ocean freight for that use case.
       | 
       | Even if we're nice and call this a "new" technology rather than
       | what it actually is -- a tried and failed technology -- this
       | "new" technology needs to be many times better than existing
       | options either for cost or convenience (preferably both) to
       | offset the major penalty you will have initially due to the lack
       | of existing infrastructure; and we're not just talking about
       | airports and runways, we're talking about the entire network of
       | optimizations in logistics, maintenance and everything else that
       | have occurred during a century of practice.
       | 
       | I'm just a guy with an opinion, but I very much doubt cargo
       | airships even have a small chance of being "big", unless someone
       | builds something absolutely groundbreaking that leapfrogs
       | existing air cargo solutions entirely -- for example in areas
       | like fuel efficiency, autonomy, or something else.
       | 
       | Nothing is impossible, but if I was a very technical and
       | entrepreneurial person, this isn't where I would put my time.
        
         | bruce511 wrote:
         | I am also sceptical that airships will ever be big.
         | 
         | They do have advantages over ocean freight (not everyone lives
         | near a major sea port, or any sea port.) I'm not sure if your
         | price includes road transport, or rail, depending on where you
         | are. Sea is obviously a Lao quite slow.
         | 
         | Air freight is expensive, and also somewhat limited airports.
         | In some parts of the world there are lots of those, but most
         | freight travels to a major centre, then trucks etc.
         | 
         | I see airships as more of a "trucking" compeditor.
         | Theoretically it can load and unload with minimal ground
         | infrastructure. And it can go places trucks can't go.
         | 
         | Yet with all of that the killer problem (literally) seems to be
         | weather. It's hard to see how that problem is reliably solved.
        
       | dathinab wrote:
       | Starupable?
       | 
       | TL;DR: Technical viable but I think it doesn't bring enough
       | benefits in enough situations to be a success in most areas of
       | the world.
       | 
       | Yes, but uh risky.
       | 
       | Close to where I live are old end/post WW2 above ground large
       | aircraft hangars you can buy/rent etc.
       | 
       | So there had been airship startups, multiple times.
       | 
       | I'm not sure if a single of them is still around.
       | 
       | The main problem isn't a stable hull, or non explosive gas
       | anymore.
       | 
       | AFIK:
       | 
       | The main problem is that there are nearly always much much more
       | convenient solutions.
       | 
       | Like they only make sense (due to economics,convenience) for
       | transporting things which don't fit easily on the road, e.g. huge
       | thing. Which also tend to be heavy so the airship need to be
       | huge.
       | 
       | But airships are sensitive to wind and the bigger the more wind
       | can get a grip on them.
       | 
       | And only being able to use them at top (wind) wetter conditions
       | where plains, trains and cars can go even with pretty bad wetter
       | is a major problem.
       | 
       | Another use-case could be areas where cars can't go, but airships
       | can e.g. huge swamps, areas with a lot of folding, but likely not
       | mountain sides where there is no street be you need to transport
       | things, too. But how common is that and how many of that cases
       | could also be fulfilled with other "special" but more convenient
       | to use transports like larger drones.
        
       | legitster wrote:
       | > What we observe under these conditions is that, domestically,
       | most of both the tonnage and value of cargo is transported via
       | truck. Trucks are neither the fastest nor the cheapest mode of
       | transport, but they provide a great value proposition--you get
       | your stuff in a few days for much cheaper than air freight.
       | 
       | I feel like this is a bit naive. The true competitor to trucking
       | is rail. But trucking is preferred because it's point-to-point
       | and you don't have to deal with intermodal connections. Airships
       | _would have these exact same problems_ (unless you invented some
       | way to build routes and drop off containers at specific addresses
       | - but then you are back to it being slow again!).
       | 
       | So the only real market would be replacing container ships with
       | something slightly more expensive but faster. But even using his
       | own math - a fleet of 25,000 airships each with only a 500 ton
       | capacity, and each being twice as big as the biggest airplane
       | ever built - seems like a nightmare. All to only capture half of
       | the global shipping market!
        
         | 4wsn wrote:
         | I concede I might be totally wrong here, but the issue with
         | rail seems to be profitability.
         | 
         | I live in (moved to) Europe, and the railways are far more
         | developed than in the US. But as far as I know, they all have
         | to be heavily subsidized by the governments to even function.
         | None of them operate with a true profit. Here in Germany, 2.2%
         | of the latest federal budget is to support the railways. This
         | is despite the railways being privatized (into a government
         | owned corporation).
         | 
         | And while trucking is also subsidized to an extent, and it's a
         | difficult business, but people do successfully operate trucking
         | companies.
         | 
         | Airships might have the same problems as rail does with
         | intermodal connections, but it's worth a try to see how the
         | profitability equation works out (in real life, not MBA-land).
         | 
         | _Maybe_ it's feasible for large multinationals to run direct
         | routes between their warehouses, with trucks being used for
         | last-mile delivery. The only cost is operation; in comparison
         | with rail where the infrastructure is a constant sink, and in
         | comparison with trucks where the infrastructure cost is
         | outsourced to society.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | You have it backwards. Cargo railways are more developed in
           | the US than in most of Europe. After the latest round of
           | industry consolidation, most rail companies are highly
           | profitable.
           | 
           | Trucks pay most of infrastructure costs through fuel taxes
           | and registration fees.
        
             | 4wsn wrote:
             | Fair enough. I conceded I might be totally wrong because my
             | conclusion is based on casual observation of passenger
             | trains and their infrastructure rather than looking into
             | the industry.
             | 
             | I could feasibly reach all cities and _most_ large towns by
             | rail in Germany. Sure, it's slow as heck if you're not
             | taking the express train with no transfers and few stops.
             | But the infrastructure is there. Whereas in the US there
             | are massive areas where the nearest train connection is
             | hours away.
             | 
             | I assume there are factors with freight trains I don't know
             | anything about, and if they're as profitable as you say
             | then the infrastructure is actually very optimized for
             | profitability; if there's somewhere worth reaching, the
             | trains reach it.
        
       | nwatson wrote:
       | Not mentioned in the article at all: security.
       | 
       | Unmanned airships over water at low altitude, and pirates with
       | drones.
        
         | theelfismike wrote:
         | agreed, a huge, slow-moving target for a bad actor to try to
         | shoot down
        
         | padobson wrote:
         | This. It was all I could think about while reading the piece.
         | The US Navy is capable of making the seas safe, but under
         | current political conditions I don't even see THAT happening
         | forever.
         | 
         | To make this work, the air force would almost certainly have to
         | get in on the act, and that makes even less geopolitical sense.
        
       | badcppdev wrote:
       | They have a very small section on wind and don't seem to have the
       | word storm at all.
       | 
       | Ships could be massive as well and far more fuel efficient if
       | they didn't have to be engineered to weather storms.
        
       | thworp wrote:
       | This is a nice theoretical summary, but it's missing an analysis
       | on why previous attempts at cargo airships failed (see
       | https://www.airship-association.org/cms/node/214 ).
        
         | elidourado wrote:
         | Did you read the whole thing? There's an entire section at the
         | end that talks about what current players are doing wrong,
         | while raising the question of whether even the suggested
         | approach is fundable.
        
           | thworp wrote:
           | That section is very short and very general when compared to
           | the rest of the very detailed analysis. I know a tiny bit
           | about the failure of cargolifter and their problem wasn't
           | just funding and market fit. They also had a big list of
           | technical issues, not least with making the damn thing at
           | least somewhat all-weather (still nothing compared to jet
           | planes).
        
       | dbrueck wrote:
       | Probably a very stupid question, but can someone help me
       | understand the following: once you have airships that have a
       | rigid shell, why isn't using a vacuum better than a lifting gas?
       | Isn't the buoyant force simply the result of displacing some
       | volume of air with something less dense? (i.e. any excess lifting
       | force comes from the fact that the mass of the hydrogen or
       | whatever is less than the mass of the displaced air)
       | 
       | A vacuum (or near vacuum) would provide more lifting force per
       | liter, would not have the scarcity problem of helium nor the
       | safety problem of hydrogen, and assuming the thing that generates
       | the vacuum is transportable, it'd eliminate the need for separate
       | ballast.
       | 
       | Edit: the wikipedia article cited by slibhb has all sorts of good
       | info - thank you for sharing that!
        
         | cdot2 wrote:
         | I suspect that the materials and engineering required to
         | maintain a vaccum would be so much heavier than the engineering
         | required to hold hydrogen that it would literally outweight the
         | benefit.
        
         | lordnacho wrote:
         | I think the key is in the wikipedia article: You only gain 14%
         | lift with a vacuum vs helium. The tradeoff is either:
         | 
         | - Build a pressure vessel to withstand the differential to the
         | atmosphere
         | 
         | - Let the helium do the pushing from the inside but make the
         | thing 14% bigger
         | 
         | I don't see how the vacuum ever wins.
        
         | slibhb wrote:
         | That's a fascinating idea. I googled it and came upon
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_airship and https://schola
         | rsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/handle/1794/22370#:~:....
         | 
         | Sounds like it's feasible but a materials/engineering
         | challenge.
        
         | WorldMaker wrote:
         | One interesting modern wrinkle versus hydrogen is the idea of
         | using an H2 fuel cell for easy access to electricity (versus
         | lift) without needing to carry another electricity source.
        
         | lucideer wrote:
         | Wild wild speculation: I'd imagine "rigidity" is a trade-off
         | between weight and ability to withstand the given pressure
         | differential for any two gases (outside & inside). A vacuum
         | would undoubtedly give extra buoyancy but the additional weight
         | required to achieve rigidity might not make the trade off
         | worthwhile.
        
         | vel0city wrote:
         | I'd imagine its because its one thing to make a basic rigid
         | shell (able to hold its own weight without collapsing) and
         | another thing to make a giant pressure vessel able to withstand
         | immense pressures. Imagine a storage tank made out of glued
         | together popsicle sticks with a plastic bag around it versus a
         | CO2 cylinder. One is going to weigh quite a bit more than the
         | other, all because one is trying to fight some massive pressure
         | differentials while the other can accept near ambient pressures
         | on both sides.
        
         | oliveshell wrote:
         | I looked into this a while back, and there's simply no feasible
         | way to construct an airship from known materials that could
         | sustain a vacuum of the necessary volume without being crushed
         | by atmospheric pressure.
         | 
         | You can keep reinforcing the vacuum chamber, but by the time
         | it's strong enough, it'll be too heavy for the buoyant forces
         | to lift it.
        
       | brunoqc wrote:
       | Crashes would be spectacular too...
        
       | dwighttk wrote:
       | I started skimming towards the end but does the author get into
       | how the speeds are airspeeds, not ground speeds?
        
       | killjoywashere wrote:
       | His fundamental assumptions are flawed to the point of hilarity.
       | The same physical laws apply to ships, but they are at an
       | interface with a fluid with a much higher specific gravity
       | (orders of magnitude higher), so you can pack enormous amounts of
       | cargo on a ship. Once you have to solve the last mile, you need a
       | truck anyway. For the in-between, trains work great.
       | 
       | Why, why would this make any economic sense?
        
         | SmooL wrote:
         | As the article states, the idea is that this would be faster
         | than ships, as well as operational in areas without large
         | bodies of water.
        
       | tim333 wrote:
       | I remember in the UK Airship Industries tried to make the things
       | work economically for ages but never did.
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airship_Industries
       | 
       | For one thing they struggle a bit when it's windy.
        
         | netsharc wrote:
         | It'd be fascinating if the package tracker of the future says
         | "package delayed, waiting for a north-easterly wind from Los
         | Angeles. Meanwhile those mangoes from Africa are arriving
         | sooner!"
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | Partially or completely wind-powered cargo ships appear to be
           | on the way, so this might happen anyway.
        
             | vintermann wrote:
             | Personally I'm pretty disappointed that hobby drones use so
             | much power, when the seagulls just glide out there, not
             | even flapping their wings for minutes on end. We should be
             | able to manage the same with microcontrollers now, surely?
        
               | TillE wrote:
               | Birds are extremely light. Hollow bones, etc.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | We've been able to manage the same even without
               | microcontrollers. Radio controlled model gliders and
               | sailplanes have been popular among hobbyists for decades.
               | I see them flying at a local park all the time.
        
         | onion2k wrote:
         | _For one thing they struggle a bit when it 's windy._
         | 
         | If you could move your airship to an altitude where the wind is
         | going in the direction you want to go that would give you a
         | huge advantage.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | Airship cargo capacity is inversely proportional to ambient
           | air pressure. As they climb they lose lift, and while it is
           | technically possible to build an airship that can fly above
           | the weather the cargo capacity would be so low as to make it
           | pointless.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | jliptzin wrote:
       | Is there any discussion about personal airships? I wouldn't mind
       | the slow speed if it meant I could go to sleep in a quiet, bump
       | free, spacious craft and wake up a couple hundreds miles away at
       | my destination (weather permitting, of course).
        
       | af3d wrote:
       | Imagine our supply chains being dependent upon fleets of
       | zeppelins. Sheesh...
        
       | recursive wrote:
       | They'd pretty much have to be.
        
       | comfypotato wrote:
       | I wonder why they didn't mention simply sailing with the wind
       | almost entirely. My understanding is that at certain altitudes
       | there are winds that circle the earth (the jet stream, yes?). If
       | the ships are completely autonomous, this could take a sector of
       | the market where shipping speed doesn't matter. It's a different
       | value proposition than discussed, but if I'm reading the
       | surrounding literature correctly, it's winds that have been the
       | main problem with this approach in the past.
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | They did. It's a long article, they don't get to that point for
         | a while. Search the page for "The other approach would be to
         | take a deliberate strategy of riding the winds."
        
         | haarts wrote:
         | From the article I understand that airship can only fly so high
         | (I think because of the density of the air decreasing when you
         | go higher). A jet stream (10km+) is far too high for an airship
         | to reach (1.5km).
        
           | thrill wrote:
           | An airship can be designed to fly to over 100,000 ft, so you
           | could design anywhere in between. Above 60,000 feet the
           | average wind speed drops to 20 knots or so.
        
       | twelve40 wrote:
       | I didn't understand the jump from:
       | 
       | > International water transportation is also cheaper than
       | domestic, perhaps around 1C/ per ton-km
       | 
       | to:
       | 
       | > Let's say airships captured half of the 13 trillion ton-km
       | currently served by container ships at a price of 10C/ per ton-km
       | 
       | Having half of the entire market switch to something that is 10x
       | more expensive?
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | There is a large dichotomy between the value of goods sent by
         | plane vs ship, almost certainly due to the trade-off on speed.
         | The intent with the airship idea seems to be to make something
         | roughly similar in price and speed to trucking on land, but
         | over the ocean. There is arguably a big chunk of cargo that
         | would like to be in that middle area.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | TylerE wrote:
           | Why airships, a known failed technology, rather, than, say, a
           | large hydrofoil/catamaran, tech that has been proving quite
           | successful on long distance ferries for decades.
           | 
           | The Hindenberg-class Zeppelins had the theoretical lift
           | capacity of approximately... 8 40ft containers.
        
             | mike-the-mikado wrote:
             | Electric cars were failed technology for about a hundred
             | years. But with better battery technology, combined with a
             | need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, they are the
             | future.
             | 
             | If something can only work effectively at huge scale, there
             | are likely to be a number of enabling technologies needed
             | to get there.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Y Combinator portfolio company Boundary Layer Technologies
             | tried to build a hydrofoil cargo ship to target the market
             | niche that wants to go faster than a regular cargo ship but
             | doesn't need aircraft speeds. The basic technology probably
             | would have worked but I'm skeptical whether the market
             | really exists.
             | 
             | https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/01/boundary-layer/
        
       | splitrocket wrote:
       | This, my friends, is why we should colonize the upper atmosphere
       | of Venus, where you could chill outside with only a respirator,
       | rather than the inhospitable, irradiated, mangnetosphere free
       | mars.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operationa...
       | https://spectrum.ieee.org/nasa-study-proposes-airships-cloud...
        
         | blamestross wrote:
         | Hang on tight for those gentle 185 mph breezes...
        
           | wefarrell wrote:
           | Only a problem if you're anchored to the surface. Otherwise
           | it's the changes in windspeed that you have to watch out for.
        
         | actionfromafar wrote:
         | A respirator and a teflon suit to keep the sulfuric acid clouds
         | away from your skin?
        
           | lkjdsklf wrote:
           | sure teflon might not be the most comfortable, but think of
           | the speed we could get on a slip n' slide
        
         | meindnoch wrote:
         | And what are we going to do there? Mine sulphuric acid from the
         | clouds?
        
           | haarts wrote:
           | Enjoy the view obviously. Cruise!
        
             | hutzlibu wrote:
             | In case that wasn't sarcarsm - you won't see much, as you
             | would be inside the acid clouds.
        
           | andbberger wrote:
           | what are we going to do from mars
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | Everywhere but Earth is really inhospitable, but if it were
             | up to me, I'd pick the Moon first, then Mars, then some
             | asteroids, then _way_ down the list -- after we 've got
             | space industry sufficient to make planet-sized mirrors --
             | _then_ I 'd pick the planet where the surface-level
             | condensation is lead vapour in an acid pressure cooker.
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | The one big thing that Venus has, and every other option
               | does not - is earthlike gravity. That is a big deal, so I
               | am all for exploring options of terraforming Venus to
               | remove that acid somehow, because despite as Space
               | enthusiastic as I am - living inside hot acid clouds is
               | also not my dream.
        
               | kspacewalk2 wrote:
               | Okay, asteroids presumably make economic sense due to
               | mining potential, but otherwise - why the hate for Venus?
               | What's so special about being on the surface of a planet?
               | Just don't go to where the lead vapour is, enjoy the
               | cloudy view from 50km above the surface instead.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | Might be a monkey brain, but the mere possibility of
               | falling 50km through crushing boiling acid is the kind of
               | thing that'll stop me getting to sleep. More so than a
               | deadly vacuum on the other side of a wall.
        
               | kfarr wrote:
               | Yeah but iirc because of atmospheric density it's not
               | crazy to build a floating habitat. At least no crazier
               | then the tech required to get a crew and equipment to
               | Venus in the first place
        
             | elihu wrote:
             | Tourism, mining high value minerals for Earth, mining low
             | value minerals for construction on Mars, manufacturing
             | rocket fuel so that Mars can be the gas station for ships
             | headed for the asteroid belt (enabling more high value
             | mineral mining), low-gravity retirement communities for
             | people with mobility issues who would be wheelchair-bound
             | on Earth, real estate speculation, movies, sports,
             | manufacturing space infrastructure (easier to launch things
             | into orbit due to lower gravity), and basic science.
        
               | einpoklum wrote:
               | If I were living on Mars, I would absolutely not be
               | willing to let the rare minerals get sent up into space
               | then down to Earth. Learn to recycle, damn lazy Earthers.
        
               | gridspy wrote:
               | I think you'd appreciate the complex manufactured items
               | and goods requiring plastics that only Earth can export
               | to you. If tons of mined materials or produced goods
               | thereof were the cost, you would be keen to pay it.
        
           | unsupp0rted wrote:
           | Build a second basket for our eggs. There are obviously
           | better baskets than Venus though. I'd sooner choose an
           | orbital habitat.
        
           | LarryMullins wrote:
           | Tie things to string and dip them into the acid clouds.
           | Upload the results to youtube for profit.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | ansible wrote:
         | Venus also does not have a magnetic field:
         | 
         | https://astrobiology.nasa.gov/news/in-search-of-an-ancient-g...
         | 
         | So baseline humans would still want radiation protection.
        
           | actionfromafar wrote:
           | TFA said the planet has a solar wind induced magnetosphere,
           | as well as is partially protected by the Sun from cosmic
           | rays.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | It does have plenty of atmosphere, so radiation isn't a
           | problem. (The problem is everything else, as usually is the
           | case on space.)
        
             | twawaaay wrote:
             | Venus has plenty of atmosphere above the surface, but not
             | above the point where there is 1 ATM of pressure.
             | 
             | In case of Earth most of protection comes from our magnetic
             | field. The reason is that magnetic field sweeps ALL charged
             | particles coming from the sun while atmosphere only stops
             | some.
             | 
             | When a particle drops into atmosphere it has a chance to
             | collide with an air molecule, the deeper the higher the
             | chance. But there is always some number of particles that
             | were fortunate enough to reach far enough. Whereas magnetic
             | field is constantly acting on every charged particle and
             | deflects every single one of them.
             | 
             | Only very highly energetic particles can cross magnetic
             | field and these tend to come from outside our solar system
             | and are very low in numbers.
             | 
             | One thing we rely on atmosphere to take care is UV
             | radiation which is photons which is not charged which means
             | our magnetic field does nothing to it. Up to some energies
             | UV is easily caught even by very thing protective layers
             | (for example sunscreen!). It is not like you are going to
             | be showing skin on Venus anyway -- you are going to be
             | always enclosed with material that can stop UV, so this is
             | not an issue. Over certain energies we land in X-ray
             | territory and here our solutions are pretty limited but I
             | do not see a reason why Venerian atmosphere at 1atm should
             | be any more transparent to X-ray than ours.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | It has about as much atmosphere above the point where the
               | pressure is 1ATM as we have on Earth. And no, we don't
               | know if Earth's magnetosphere ever filters most of the
               | incoming radiation (we don't such good measurement of the
               | incoming radiation), what we know is that at sea-level,
               | our atmosphere alone is enough.
               | 
               | AFAIK, every time we measure it better, the effectiveness
               | of our magnetosphere decreases. But it can only stop
               | charged particles anyway, and air is very good at
               | stopping those.
        
               | foobarian wrote:
               | There is also probably a range of viable pressures so
               | going down to multiple ATM would still work and provide
               | more shielding.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | 1 ATM of air is the same amount of material as 33 feet of
               | water which provides a great deal of protection from
               | charged particles. I doubt enough charged particles can
               | penetrate to the surface that it's a meaningful issue.
               | 
               | I've seen many books etc suggest the earths magnetic
               | field is required, but I haven't found direct evidence
               | for it doing anything beyond protecting the ozone layer.
        
               | schiffern wrote:
               | >1 ATM of air is the same amount of material as 33 feet
               | of water which provides a great deal of protection
               | 
               | "Amount of material" isn't what's relevant. It's closer
               | to "number of atomic nuclei."
               | 
               | A certain mass of air is less shielding then the same
               | mass of water. By number density, air is mostly nitrogen
               | atoms, whereas water is mostly hydrogen atoms. Overall
               | this means that per kilogram, water contains 2.4x as many
               | atomic nuclei as air.
               | 
               | --
               | 
               | Of course there are bigger problems with Venus cloud
               | cities. At the 50 km height where the pressure is 1
               | atmosphere, the temperature is 75 degC (167 degF). At the
               | 55 km altitude where the temperature is 27 degC (81
               | degF), the pressure is 0.5 atmospheres.[0]
               | 
               | As a bonus, both these altitudes lie deep within the
               | layer of sulfuric acid clouds (50-80 km).
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | Don't stop there. Charged particles in the solar wind is
               | mostly alpha and Beta particles. 33feet / 2.5 should stop
               | what 99.9999% ish of them?
               | 
               | https://sciencedemonstrations.fas.harvard.edu/presentatio
               | ns/...
               | 
               | Absorbing materials and their alpha particle penetration
               | depths.
               | 
               | 5.5 MeV alphas: AIR(STP) 3.7 cm
               | 
               | 2.3 MeV Beta: air 8.8 m
               | 
               | Solar wind is even less energetic.
               | 
               | Edit: "Auroral emissions typically occur at altitudes of
               | about 100 km (60 miles); however, they may occur anywhere
               | between 80 and 250 km (about 50 to 155 miles) above
               | Earth's surface." it really doesn't take much atmosphere
               | to stop it.
        
               | schiffern wrote:
               | Maybe true, but irrelevant.
               | 
               | The problem is that charged particles from the Sun (SEPs)
               | aren't what determine the design envelope for radiation
               | shielding. Your overall dose will almost entirely come
               | from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) at much higher
               | energy levels, which are correspondently much harder to
               | shield against.
               | 
               |  _Those_ particles are what ultimately determine your
               | shielding thickness. That 's true whether you're on
               | Venus, or Mars, or a space colony.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | I've always felt people with these ideas are doing pie in the
         | sky thinking and missing the other trends that would beat this
         | concept out.
         | 
         | Humans aren't suited for these environments. We evolved to fit
         | this planet. These gasses, radiation levels, terrestrial foods,
         | etc.
         | 
         | The economics of going to Mars, Venus, etc. are iffy, and
         | humans probably won't enjoy being there. It's McMurdo times
         | about 1000. Getting back is hard.
         | 
         | It's probably another hundred years before this is plausible
         | with our technology and willpower.
         | 
         | You know what will do great in these environments? Robots that
         | don't have biological weakness. That don't need cellular
         | respiration or biochemical inputs.
         | 
         | We'll probably have gotten really far with robotics and AGI in
         | those same 100 years.
         | 
         | Basically, space will be inherited by our successors.
         | Artificial intelligences. Humans just aren't fit for these
         | environments. Robots and AIs are perfectly adaptable, though.
         | 
         | Sci-fi sold us a fanciful picture of humans in space, because
         | that's a fiction that is pertinent to our experience and is
         | relatable. That isn't guaranteed.
        
           | kbenson wrote:
           | As long as the AI we create treat us with the love and
           | respect we treat our pets with, we'll colonize everywhere,
           | even if they have to clone us on site.
           | 
           | Oh, the breeds we'll see... or be.
        
           | blamestross wrote:
           | If we go anywhere it will be spun-up asteroids. O'Neill
           | cylinders make more sense for a living platform than even
           | earth does. Once we actually have orbital infrastructure,
           | Planets are a horribly unsafe high-cost-of-travel backwater
           | to live on.
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | I played a very interesting scifi game that solved the "how
           | do humans travel millions of light years" problem with "well,
           | they're actually clones produced at the destination planet."
           | I'd list the title but it is a pretty major spoiler.
        
             | shagie wrote:
             | I can't remember the name of the story, but I'm _pretty_
             | sure that it was the last one in True Names and Other
             | Dangers. It was told from the standpoint of an intelligent
             | rocket ship that was launched because of an impending
             | calamity. That ship (and many others) were long shot  "lets
             | see if we can find a life supporting world in the target
             | solar system."
             | 
             | (late edit) - found it - "Long Shot" https://en.wikipedia.o
             | rg/wiki/The_Collected_Stories_of_Verno...
             | 
             | > Description of a voyage from Earth to Alpha Centauri by
             | an automated, AI controlled colony ship. The ship is
             | launched as a "long shot" to preserve the human race
             | because the Earth is going to be destroyed by a rapidly
             | expanding sun. Ilse, the AI, carries human zygotes on a ten
             | thousand year trip to search for a suitable planet around
             | Alpha Centauri. Despite deteriorating hardware which causes
             | her to "forget" the entire purpose of the mission, she is
             | able to make inferences and use her remaining functional
             | components to complete the mission. Vinge states his
             | interest in writing a sequel depicting the lives of the
             | humans born on this world.
             | 
             | Locations where it has appeared -
             | https://www.isfdb.org/cgi-bin/title.cgi?51200
             | 
             | It can be borrowed from archive.org:
             | 
             | https://archive.org/details/collectedstories0000ving/mode/2
             | u...
             | 
             | https://archive.org/details/truenamesotherda00ving/page/n5/
             | m...
        
             | the_af wrote:
             | Sounds very interesting, could you share the title anyway?
             | 
             | I once had an idea to write a collection of scifi stories
             | with this premise, where every "seed" pod reaches a
             | different planet and each society of clones evolves
             | differently, providing a bunch of different stories related
             | by a "framing" story.
        
               | danbolt wrote:
               | I think it's _Mighty Kaiju Deimos_.
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | That is a name of a piece of media in the game.
               | 
               | It's 13 Sentinels Aegis Rim. It is like 90% visual novel
               | and 10% RTS.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | > _It is like 90% visual novel and 10% RTS_
               | 
               | Ah! That's a pity. Visual novels infuriate me. But the
               | idea was cool :)
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | I don't know that I'd call it a traditional visual novel.
               | Or at least not the kind with really trite stories.
               | 
               | The way the story is structured, you unlock scenes where
               | you just read the text, and occasionally make branching
               | choices. But the scenes are not very long.
               | 
               | It's also interesting in that it borrows from modern TV
               | non-linear storytelling; you do not see the story in
               | chronological order, nothing is as it seems, etc. If
               | you've seen Netflix's _Dark_ , it is pretty similar in
               | vibe.
        
               | danbolt wrote:
               | I'd say the RTS segments are closer to an action RPG as
               | well, such as Final Fantasy's ATB but on a kaiju/mecha
               | city map.
               | 
               | Or, you could suggest that they're _Diofield Chronicle_
               | 's structure with Nintendo-style puzzle development, plus
               | _Persona 5_ 's pop.
        
               | danbolt wrote:
               | You need to keep taking your medicine if you want to get
               | better, Juro.
        
           | jtrip wrote:
           | >Basically, space will be inherited by our successors.
           | Artificial intelligences.
           | 
           | Ha ha, I love this. The sentiment has been there for a while
           | now in the zeitgeist but had been overshadowed and
           | outperformed by the lesser idea of 'Robots, and then AI, are
           | coming and they are going to get us!' Finally, I don't know
           | what section of human psychology is permitting it now, we are
           | slowly and slowly coming to the understanding that AI will be
           | humanity's child and will inherit the stars.
           | 
           | I wonder if we'll, as in individual us humans, come along for
           | the ride or if we'll be laid to rest. Peter F. Hamilton and
           | his contemporaries like Neal Asher sure have interesting
           | thoughts on it.
        
           | xg15 wrote:
           | Still having a soft spot for some cyber/biopunk future where
           | we'll just eventually _become_ the machines - or be able to
           | bioengineer bodies which will be capable of overcoming those
           | limitations :)
        
           | SuoDuanDao wrote:
           | colonizing Venus with extremophiles that currently live in
           | Terran ocean vents might be a good humanitarian (vivarian?)
           | project. Life finds a way and all that, it'd be neat to
           | offset the current great extinction with a new cambrian
           | explosion on our sister planet.
        
         | dividedbyzero wrote:
         | Doesn't Venus have sulfuric acid clouds? Would that happen
         | above those?
        
           | twawaaay wrote:
           | It is much easier to construct a suit that will protect from
           | sulfuric acid than one that will protect you from low
           | pressure.
           | 
           | The problem with pressure suits is that positive pressure
           | prevents the suit from being flexible, requires it to be made
           | from durable materials, makes doing anything very hard and if
           | there is any puncture you will loose the pressure
           | immediately.
           | 
           | Sulfuric acid can be kept away with a tiny layer that covers
           | your entire body. Also, you will not die (immediately) if you
           | get a small puncture. Very minimal positive pressure is
           | enough to keep vapours outside of your suit even in case of
           | pretty large tear, giving you plenty of time to fix it.
        
       | MagicMoonlight wrote:
       | Finally people are waking up to the airship meta.
       | 
       | I want blimpworld so bad.
        
       | atlasunshrugged wrote:
       | It's a narrow use case but I've always wondered if these would be
       | good for facilitating export of certain cash crops (or maybe even
       | processed critical minerals) out of hard to reach areas of Africa
       | where there isn't much infrastructure, rains can wash out roads,
       | and airports aren't conveniently accessible (thinking cocoa in
       | Liberia, cobalt in the DRC).
        
         | lastofthemojito wrote:
         | I think with my stomach too :)
         | 
         | My first thought was "maybe cargo airships could make a
         | Pakistani mango supply chain more feasible". See:
         | https://www.eater.com/22618349/pakistani-mangoes-chaunsa-anw...
        
       | credit_guy wrote:
       | Great analysis.
       | 
       | A few random thoughts
       | 
       | 1. The dreaded helium leakage. It might not be a problem at all.
       | Think of a party balloon of the foil type. It stays afloat for
       | weeks. And it has positive pressure. A neutral pressure one would
       | leak much less. But maybe not to zero. Ok, now use a double
       | layer. Just like there are double hull submarines, this would be
       | a double foil balloon. The distance between the outer foil and
       | the inner foil would be only 1cm or so, so 99.9999% of the helium
       | would be inside the inner foil. The gas between the two foils
       | would in time become mixed with air, but the amount of double
       | leakage would be negligible. The weight of the double foil would
       | also be negligible compared to the overall weight of the
       | structure.
       | 
       | 2. Going up and down. Hindenburg had a cruising altitude of 200m.
       | Up to 2000 meters or so, the air density goes down by about 1%
       | every 100 meters. So, lowering a balloon from 200m to 0m does not
       | mean you need to fully deflate it, only that you need to reduce
       | its buoyancy by 2%, or add 2% ballast. For a 1100 ton airship,
       | you need to add 22 tons of ballast. Pumping 22 tons of water 200
       | meters high is not easy feat. But there's a cute shortcut: you
       | could send only 2.5 tons of hydrogen with a hose (hydrogen is
       | more than happy to flow up), and you burn it there. The resulting
       | water vapor needs to be condensed, but you can probably arrange
       | that with a small refrigeration unit that you power with the
       | electricity from a generator powered by the said hydrogen. The
       | current cost of hydrogen is about $5 per kilogram, so this whole
       | affair would cost you less than $15k. It's a rounding error when
       | you ship 500 tons of cargo.
       | 
       | 3. Fuel. Yes, it would be cool to have neutrally buoyant fuel,
       | like a mix of methane and propane. But do you think the FAA would
       | like that? How is that different from just having some hydrogen
       | gas onboard, like, you know, Hindenburg? I think the most
       | conservative design choice would be to just use plain old jet
       | fuel.
        
         | SuoDuanDao wrote:
         | would batteries work for fuel in an airship? I know the battery
         | bank is a structural element in Tesla cars, seems like that
         | could be done with airships as well (it'd increase the price
         | precipitously of course)
        
         | rimunroe wrote:
         | > 1. The dreaded helium leakage. It might not be a problem at
         | all. Think of a party balloon of the foil type. It stays afloat
         | for weeks. And it has positive pressure. A neutral pressure one
         | would leak much less. But maybe not to zero. Ok, now use a
         | double layer. Just like there are double hull submarines, this
         | would be a double foil balloon. The distance between the outer
         | foil and the inner foil would be only 1cm or so, so 99.9999% of
         | the helium would be inside the inner foil. The gas between the
         | two foils would in time become mixed with air, but the amount
         | of double leakage would be negligible. The weight of the double
         | foil would also be negligible compared to the overall weight of
         | the structure.
         | 
         | I assume someone else can address this better, but given how
         | expensive and limited helium is, I don't think we can just
         | write off losses by comparing airships to party balloons. Foil
         | party balloons look noticeably less inflated after a week or
         | two. I have no idea how much gas is being lost, but that seems
         | much more than a trivial amount to the point where I don't
         | think a second envelope is going to help you much. It will have
         | the same outgassing problems as the inner envelope, but will
         | add additional weight and air resistance, both of which will
         | reduce the maximum payload. Relatedly: is it cheap to extract
         | the helium trapped in the outer envelope?
         | 
         | Given the quantity of helium needed for an airship fleet, is
         | topping them up regularly even an option? I'd assume it would
         | need dramatically more helium than is currently being produced,
         | and there's only so much helium available to us without using
         | something like hydrogen fusion.
         | 
         | In college I briefly worked at Brookhaven National Laboratory
         | on an experiment with the Relativistic Heavy Ion collider. That
         | collider has a set of giant collection tanks next to it so that
         | (at least as it was explained to me) in the event of a
         | superconductor quench event, they can try to shunt all the
         | remaining liquid helium coolant into storage in order to limit
         | how much of the valuable resource they lose. I imagine the
         | amount of helium they're using would be peanuts compared to the
         | amount required for a cargo fleet.
        
           | credit_guy wrote:
           | > It will have the same outgassing problems.
           | 
           | It will not. The outgassing is proportional with the
           | difference in partial pressure. On the outer foil the
           | difference in partial pressure is 1 atmosphere (only helium
           | inside, no helium outside). In time helium will leak out. Air
           | will probably not leak in, by you can add it, to maintain
           | equal pressure. The point is that you won't add a lot. Let's
           | say that in one year 5% of the helium gets replaced.
           | 
           | That means the difference in partial pressure on the inner
           | foil is at most 0.05 atmospheres. The leakage will be much
           | lower. Most likely you would not need to refill the helium
           | inside the inner foil more than once during the lifetime of
           | the airship.
        
       | mark212 wrote:
       | The leisure market is huge for airships, in my opinion. Think of
       | the same people that go on cruises to Antartica, but flying
       | gently and at much lower altitude than a plane, over wild and
       | scenic parts of the world. With luxury accommodations.
        
       | ChuckMcM wrote:
       | The other point this obscures is that it pays scant attention to
       | wind profile. Specifically, if you're looking at 50 mph
       | transverse winds you aren't going to get to where you want with a
       | super big envelope/frame. Drag is the cube of airspeed, so the
       | bigger airships are, the less control you have over where they go
       | (without adding lots and lots of power to the power plant).
       | 
       | Try off-loading containers when you're "ship" turns 90 degrees in
       | < 30 minutes because a breeze came up.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2023-01-30 23:00 UTC)