[HN Gopher] Google Project Sunroof ___________________________________________________________________ Google Project Sunroof Author : kaycebasques Score : 90 points Date : 2023-02-07 20:51 UTC (2 hours ago) (HTM) web link (sunroof.withgoogle.com) (TXT) w3m dump (sunroof.withgoogle.com) | mbgerring wrote: | Arcadia's Arc platform also does this, except it uses actual | energy and tariff data, and is used by every major solar | installer in America to produce savings estimates accurate enough | to write binding contracts against. Check it out: | https://www.arcadia.com/arc | technick wrote: | I hope someone has already written the eulogy for this service. | | Their numbers also appear to be off. I compared my property to a | house that has over 4x the amount of roof space for solar cells | and their calculations only showed a 67% increase in the money | recouped after 20 years. | mlsu wrote: | Putting solar panels on roofs may have made sense when PV was | expensive and the component cost was a big multiple. | | But now? Far better to just stick a bunch of them in the desert | where they can be inexpensively installed and maintained -- pass | the savings along to consumers. This saves a lot of pain when | people "invest" a bunch of money in labor intensive | installations, only to figure out the difference between | wholesale and consumer rates when they cannot sell power back to | the grid at $.20/kWh. | | At a macro scale, there is no reason to incentivize residential | solar, other than "feels." | toomuchtodo wrote: | Payback period in most parts of the US is ~10 years for | residential rooftop solar. The equipment will last at least | 25-30 years, most likely longer at a lower capacity rating | (panels degrade ~0.5-1%/year). It also prevents your utility | from holding you hostage economically, because they'll just | keep raising rates at the max rate the PUC allows and to max | their equity return permitted. | | I'm unsure why you think savings would be passed to ratepayers | versus kept as profit by investor owned utilities? Might happen | with coops and non profit utilities. Utility scale solar | absolutely helps drive out fossil generation at the macro, but | residential rooftop solar is a hedge against utility | monopolistic practices. | | https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electricity-prices-inflatio... | | https://www.utilitydive.com/news/retail-electricity-prices-c... | | https://www.wptv.com/money/consumer/florida-residents-strugg... | mlsu wrote: | No reason to prevent people from putting solar on their roofs | if they wish. | | I'm talking about tax rebates and credits given to people who | put solar on their roofs. I'm sure these are good | investments: they're subsidized! | ptaffs wrote: | I had the local solar reseller estimate for installing on my | flat roof house. I would like to think I am keen on going | green, but after three visits, some hard sell and | spreadsheets showing when and how I would break even, i | really felt like I was just engaging in a long-term finance | deal. I would pay the same as I currently do, but to the | solar finance lender, not to my local electricity company. | And some of the cost benefit was speculated based on my local | electricity company buying from me. I also had concerns about | roof maintenance when it was inaccessible due to the panels. | I also worried that to sell my house I would have to find a | buyer willing to take-on the debt, the reseller | unrealistically insisted the opposite, that this would add | value. I didn't sign up, having seen companies fold, be | acquired, change terms and conditions and essentially screw | consumers, it just wasn't appealing. | mulletbum wrote: | This is exactly my experience as well. I got a lot of hard | sales tactics that all sounded like "Pay us instead of your | power company." I see no incentive to do that honestly, it | just leaves a bunch of pain and complicated math for me to | take care of and they eat up all the savings. From what I | can tell, just like recycling, it is almost useless unless | we all group together and do it at once. In this case, it | is better for my power company to innovate that each | individual take on the problem themselves. | toomuchtodo wrote: | > it is almost useless unless we all group together and | do it at once. | | There are coops that perform group buys if you don't feel | sophisticated enough to compare bids and select an | installer (which is a reasonable position to take): | https://www.solarunitedneighbors.org/ | | https://reddit.com/r/solar is also a resource for having | bids reviewed, asking for system and install advice, etc. | | (i collectively own ~100kw of residential solar and | provide guidance gratis to others constructing or | purchasing their own systems) | jeffbee wrote: | This tool, while cool, is an application of large-scale image | processing and won't stand scrutiny over the estimates for | individual buildings. Just as an example, it features | Oklahoma City, but their model does not seem to include the | mean time between being destroyed by hail or tornados. This | would be a somewhat relevant point for OKC. | 1123581321 wrote: | If your panels are destroyed, you're going to get the | replacement cost back from home insurance along with your | roof repair claim. Unless your panels are destroyed in year | one, your deductible will more than have been paid for by | the panels' production. | toomuchtodo wrote: | Rooftop racking strengthens roofs (racking is mounted to | roof trusses with asphalt roofing, or friction mounts on | seams are used with standing seam metal roofs), and panels | are rated to withstand hail (1 inch hail at 50 mph speeds) | and hurricane force winds. Homeowner's insurance will cover | replacement of damaged panels and systems in the event of a | loss. A few minutes with a search engine of your choice | will confirm these facts. | jeffbee wrote: | A little searching would also show that the installed | capacity in Oklahoma is just 1% of that in Arizona and I | think there's a reason for that. Even of your insurance | covers it, it's not like the insurer is operating a | steady-state loss. You're paying for it, and that factors | into an economic estimate. | advisedwang wrote: | A few reasons PV on roofs might still make sense: | | * Cheap land may be far away from consumers, requiring | expensive and inefficient transmission lines. | | * As PV costs come down, land cost become a higher fraction. | Roofs do not require a land purchase. | | * Some locations are politically unwilling or unable to do | large scale solar. rooftop solar provides a route for personal | adoption. | | Finally remember the two options are not mutually exclusive! | cogman10 wrote: | Roofs have the distinct advantage of not requiring new land | acquisitions and being close to consumption (cutting | transmission costs). | wefarrell wrote: | That doesn't mean that problems that can be solved at the macro | scale should _only_ be solved at the macro scale. If, for | whatever reason, the best solutions aren 't being implemented | that doesn't mean no solution should be implemented. | boring_twenties wrote: | Easy solution to that, just mine crypto with all your excess | solar power. | icedistilled wrote: | Rooftop space is wasted space, it should be used for something. | I'm not against solar in the desert, but at the same time | deserts are actually beautiful and sensitive ecosystems. If | there's space on roofs that can reduce the impact on | wilderness, then we should use it. | | Branding that as "feels" is dismissive to rational debate as in | that line of reasoning there is no reason not to sell yosemite | or joshua tree national park to developers other than "feels" | PragmaticPulp wrote: | Building solar farms in the desert requires expensive grid | upgrades. | | Putting solar panels on your roof generates the electricity | near where you consume it, which is a big advantage. | | Rooftop solar can have payback periods as short as 5-10 years | depending on the location. It makes a lot of sense for | individuals to embrace that if they want, while utilities can | also do their thing in the desert. | DeRock wrote: | I used to agree with you, because if you look at the system as | a whole, centralizing generation is more efficient. But I am | currently paying 2/3 of my per kWh rate just for distribution. | PGE (the northern california utility) is some combination of | negligent, corrupt, and standard fare profit seeking, that I | simply don't trust them to pass on the efficiency savings to | me. | jedberg wrote: | Until someone figures out superconduction at room temperature, | there will always be transmission losses, which you don't get | when you generate and store the power at the point of | consumption. | nix23 wrote: | I wait for a google toilet since years! | rdl wrote: | LOL/cry that it doesn't let you enter a current electric bill | above $500, but does include Puerto Rico and Hawaii adresses. | Apocryphon wrote: | To be safe is it better to use a neighbor's address? | the_arun wrote: | I entered an address. It said $14K savings for 20 years. It takes | $15K to install solar roof. So break even is like 20 years - | which is half the productive life time. It doesn't motivate me to | install Solar panels. | rconti wrote: | Sounds like it worked, then. | Matthias247 wrote: | It might be assuming no energy price increases. Given that | energy e.g. increased in many german cities from 30ct/kWh to > | 60ct/kWh, it might break even much faster. | | On the other hand it might however also not include maintenance | costs. | fastest963 wrote: | You also get 30% back in the form of a tax credit when you | purchase solar. So that might mean that the cost is only $10k. | I'm also not sure if the Sunroof website is just doing straight | math based on today's electricity rates or if it assumes some | amount of inflation. If the past predicts the future your rates | could be 75%+ higher in 20 years making solar much more | lucrative. | edmundsauto wrote: | I researched historical rates in San Diego (upcoming solar | install prework) and prices have increased an average of | 5%/year for 10 years running. This felt like a reasonable | assumption to me, although to be cautious I used 3%. | | Rates will change! Energy doesn't look like it will get | cheaper, especially with EV fleet rollouts. | | Accounting for planned 2 EV purchases at 10k miles/year, the | largest system I can build on my roof has something like | $150k savings against <$50k cost over 20 years. | | That gives a lot of room for unexpected issues and feels like | a wise bet to take. | ec109685 wrote: | It depends on what your electricity price is. For our house, | it's way higher than the estimate (and they let you bump up the | estimate). The cost to put panels on was pretty spot on to the | quotes I've received. | maherbeg wrote: | I don't think the map sources it uses have been updated in a long | time. We've had a tree removed from the front of our house 2 | years ago that clearly shows up in the map. | sithadmin wrote: | >Enter a U.S. or Puerto Rico address | | _Enters address in top 50 (population) US county_ | | "Project Sunroof hasn't reached that address" | | ...well, alright then. | saalweachter wrote: | Was your house built in the last, what, 7-8 years? | | (I'm curious if the data hasn't been refreshed since the site | launched.) | tppiotrowski wrote: | My hunch is that they require LiDAR data for the estimate and | LiDAR data is currently collected one municipality at a time | and stored in many different places. It's a data fragmentation | problem. | | In comparison, ground elevation data (omitting buildings and | trees) can be collected using radar from orbit. That's why we | have consistent and widely available elevation data like SRTM | for the entire planet. | Animats wrote: | Expect this project to be cancelled. Google is in layoff mode. | echelon wrote: | It's more evidence of how bad Google has been at building | diverse revenue streams. | | Search is going to be driven to zero profit, and that's going | to cripple Google. | | Literally everyone is empowered to build better products than | Google search. And Microsoft / OpenAI will subsidize it, | laughing all the way to the bottom. It'll completely poison 50% | of all the money Google can make. | | Google had two decades to ensure they were safe, and stuff like | Killed By Google / Project Sunroof is all they've got to show | for what their product culture can build. | | Google is going to try really hard to reinvent themselves, but | they haven't accomplished anything along that front in the last | two decades. I wouldn't bet on that magic happening overnight. | Their founders have been absent and their leadership has been | coasting. The picture is clear as day. | | Google's done. Google got checkmated hard. | VWWHFSfQ wrote: | people just get on here and say nonsense like this. | echelon wrote: | Dude, I'm living in my office working on this stuff 24/7. I | quit my $400k/yr TC job because I believe in this stuff so | strongly. You have no idea the wave of disruption coming. | I'm seeing fundamental breakthroughs every single day. AI | Twitter is simultaneously incredible and haunting. | | So many people are sleeping on something bigger than the | internet itself. This is huge. Pay attention. | | Google should be scared to death. They're in a precarious | position and ripe for disruption. Even adapting to the new | world order puts their primary revenue stream at risk. | | Think about it and then think about how you might be able | to take advantage of this. Fortunes unlike any before are | about to be made. | VectorLock wrote: | I can't wait to see this "bigger than the internet." | mden wrote: | > You have no idea the wave of disruption coming. | | Cool, but can you give some concrete examples so it | doesn't sound like you're being extremely hyperbolic? | | > Even adapting to the new world order puts their primary | revenue stream at risk. | | Even if Bing and Google end up having similar LLM chat | capabilities with Bing being first to deliver, would it | be enough to get Google users to move to Bing? | | The current business models need to be more than being | able to converse with a chatbot. Ads will still need to | be integrated and they might come off a lot worse when | integrated into a conversation. It's definitely | interesting times but I don't see how it's a new world | order yet. | foobazgt wrote: | How is Google sleeping on AI? By all accounts, they have | had a better LLM than ChatGPT (Lamda), years in advance | of ChatGPT. | | Google is hampered in that they have a lot to risk. | They're a big lawsuit target that can't go around wildly | violating copyright and subjecting the world to | dangerously, convincingly confident BS. | | But make no mistake - they are world leaders in AI, they | have their best engineers working on it, they beat | everyone to the punch with a high performing LLM amongst | a mountain of other AI advances, and they recognize the | threat to their business model. You're kidding yourself | if you think otherwise. | [deleted] | jeffbee wrote: | Honest question. Do you think every product reachable from a | google URL is staffed? | | https://www.google.com/moon/ ? | noman-land wrote: | I will never trust a Google product again for the rest of my | life. | warent wrote: | I wish this was flamebait hyperbole that I could downvote, | especially as an ex-employee, yet here I am now avoiding | Google as much as possible. Transitioning to providers like | Fastmail and my own home cloud; even switching to Kagi for | search. Sad times, but probably for the best | DiabloD3 wrote: | I don't know why this guy is being downvoted. I thought this | _already_ was canceled, as (almost?) all 20% time projects at | Google have been killed. Last time I heard about this being | relevant was, 2015? ish? | skybrian wrote: | If they actually knew it to be cancelled then it would be | useful to share that. Saying "it might be cancelled" adds no | value. You don't need to know anything or even need look at | the web page. Nothing is learned. | jsnell wrote: | Because it is a repetitive, low-value comment which gets | spammed to basically every thread that's even tangential to | Google. | DiabloD3 wrote: | Sort of? It's still a valid comment as long as it continues | to be true. Google needs to clean house at the top, and go | back to engineering-first teams, not engineering-never. | dontreact wrote: | It's not true | | Source: I work at Google | jsnell wrote: | A lot of things can be true, and still not be worth | posting thousands of times per year on HN. | | Because do you see what's happened here? Whatever | interesting discussion there might have been to be had on | this project has now been smothered by the top-voted | comment being just a tired repetition of the same "Google | kills products, hehe, hehe" echo chamber. (I don't know | if there really is that much discussion to be had on the | actual topic of the post, but it should at least get a | chance!) | simondotau wrote: | I tend to prefer an occasional, short, low effort comment | more than the long-winded, hall monitor style commentary | on hacker news guidelines which so often follows. | kyrra wrote: | This project was launched in 2015. | https://spectrum.ieee.org/google-introduces-project-sunroof | [deleted] | ShakataGaNai wrote: | This is a cool project, but it hasn't been updated in YEARS. I | think it was put on lifesupport in 2017. | https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/googles-project... | jedc wrote: | That article is only about the lead-generation part of Project | Sunroof being shut down. Which makes a ton of sense - it was | likely not generating much revenue, but managing a program like | that can suck up a ton of time in managing those relationships. | It's just easier to kill it and let everyone compete in search | results instead. | | You're correct in that the design hasn't been updated in years, | but... so? From poking around in my city, everything still | seems to work the same. (Though I wonder if the estimates are | now out of date...) | coder543 wrote: | > You're correct in that the design hasn't been updated in | years, but... so? | | I checked a house that was built about 4 years ago in a major | metro area, and Project Sunroof just showed an empty field | and "sorry, we haven't reached that address yet". | | I'm fairly sure _nothing_ about this site is being updated. | That also means that any structural changes to houses | (including additions, remodeling of the roof, or just | complete bulldoze-and-rebuild) or the surrounding property | (tree growth, trees being cut down, etc) are not reflected in | the estimates. | | > Though I wonder if the estimates are now out of date | | By all appearances, they are. _Massively._ The older this | data gets, the less useful it becomes. It 's not really a "so | what?" situation if the data isn't being kept up to date. | jghn wrote: | Damn, thanks for pointing this out. There's a new construction | near me that could have a big impact on solar viability of my | roof. I figured I'd wait until Sunroof updated to reflect that | before considering doing my roof. Guess that's not going to | play out the way I hoped. | jahewson wrote: | Less of a moonshot and more of a sunshot. | steveBK123 wrote: | Cool site, but its been around for years.. not seeing anything | new on it today? | kaycebasques wrote: | I submitted the post. I am a Googler but am not aware of any | news about this project. Just thought it was cool and would | share it in case it's useful for anyone. | | And correct, it has been around for years (2016 to be exact): | https://sustainability.google/progress/projects/project-sunr... | coder543 wrote: | Unfortunately, the data has not been updated in years either. | | If you're a Googler and you find this project interesting, | maybe you can find the right people internally to work with | to revitalize this project. It's a really cool concept, just | so far out of date that it isn't very useful any more. | monkeydust wrote: | Use https://solcast.com/ has a free version no credit card, also | had it hooked up to homeassisant via their API. | tppiotrowski wrote: | They say they account for trees when calculating usable roof area | but I can't find if they account for building shading in the | total hours of sunlight. | | I've been working on a tangential project [1] for helping people | find sunny areas anywhere in the world based on topography and | building data and must say that Google trove of LiDAR data is | amazing. Does anyone know if it's accessible to developers? | | [1] | https://shademap.app/@47.60502,-122.33437,15z,1675804770099t... | smm11 wrote: | A Google thing started then abandoned? Never heard of such a | thing! | crispinb wrote: | This is a local-only service for just a single nation. | silisili wrote: | Weird. My address shows a pin on the map, with the house missing. | Both neighbors are there, and gives valid estimates for them. | siva7 wrote: | So that's Googles best bet how to not being killed by Microsofts | AI adventure | eclipxe wrote: | What? How do you even make that connection? | jedberg wrote: | Amusingly they don't appear to be using Google Maps for the data, | or if they are, it's an old dataset. They still have the old | image of my house before I remodeled, but GMaps has the new roof. | n00bskoolbus wrote: | Had this in my city for a time. Was a partnership between some | tech company and the big local energy provider. Got axed after | two years and seems like the tech company didn't have any rights | to the data since it's no longer accessible. Cool idea but miss | my local data :( | | Found the company, they still partner with a small amount of | cities: https://myheat.ca/ ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2023-02-07 23:00 UTC)