[HN Gopher] Is Google's 20-year search dominance about to end?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Is Google's 20-year search dominance about to end?
        
       Author : i13e
       Score  : 129 points
       Date   : 2023-02-08 20:57 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
        
       | FridgeSeal wrote:
       | I do not understand the appeal or gpt-powered searches.
       | 
       | Most of my web searches are for looking up specific things, to
       | find the specific link(s) that contains the information I need.
       | These aren't searches that are going to be made better or faster
       | by an ML model-they're not natural language queries, they're just
       | a bunch of terms.
        
         | ghshephard wrote:
         | Depends on your use case - if you are coding, or doing
         | constraint analysis - 75+% of the time it's a single request,
         | single answer, and you are done. The other element with ChatGPT
         | is if you aren't happy with the initial answer for some reason
         | - you can engage in a conversation with it, provide some
         | guidance, and will adjust it to suit _specifically_ what you
         | are interested in. I 've found about 50% of my google searches
         | just go straight to ChatGPT these days. Hallucinations are the
         | only real problem I've had - but over time you start to become
         | cynical about the truth of anything factual - asking for unit
         | tests helps quite a bit when coding - double checking any math
         | is also important.
         | 
         | I do agree though, that without citations to the original
         | source - any "Facts" that ChatGPT offers are absolutely
         | untrustworthy.
        
         | helf wrote:
         | I think because people want to natural language ask questions
         | to a virtual butler (Jeeves) and get an answer back in
         | digestible natural language form.
         | 
         | I... don't really get it either.
         | 
         | But I'm also a cranky person who can't stand every damn thing
         | being a video whether it makes sense for the content or not,
         | etc.
        
       | lvl102 wrote:
       | ChatGPT is still a novelty. People will kick tires etc but
       | utility is just not there yet.
        
         | bloblaw wrote:
         | Similar statements have been made about most dominant
         | technology when it was in its infancy. You are not wrong, but
         | it can quickly go from novelty to necessity once folks start to
         | rely on it.
        
           | lvl102 wrote:
           | Do you see yourself relying on it? Not when you know it's
           | KNOWN to give wrong answers.
           | 
           | It's also worth mentioning that Google PageRank was not the
           | first search engine. No, it was good 4-5 years after the
           | first usable search engine came to market. I think the same
           | will be true for AI chat.
        
       | tootie wrote:
       | Betteridge's law right here. I don't see how ChatGPT is going to
       | do anything in the search space and it's stunning to see people
       | tripping over themselves to declare Microsoft the winner already.
       | I'm already predicting they will write down this acquisition for
       | a few billion in 2 or 3 years.
       | 
       | AI question and answer searches have existed for a while. Alexa
       | does an equivalent job as ChatGPT and I find it to rarely be
       | useful. Google's stroke of genius was to skip curation and
       | algorithmic ranking in favor of a heuristic. Namely, PageRank. I
       | know it's gone through years of refinement, tuning and tinkering,
       | but the fundamental basis of popularity is just a way more
       | reliable and durable approach than trying to intuit what people
       | want based on what's on the page. You'd absolute be back to dark
       | days of blackhat SEOs bombing results by inundating GPT with
       | keywords. It won't work. The popularity model works with and only
       | with a network effect of having zillions of successful searches
       | to mine. Maybe Bing has just enough data to be useful and maybe
       | ChatGPT can do a marginally better job of giving boxed answers to
       | specific questions, but that's not the thing that makes search
       | valuable.
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | If Google were ever to remove the 'verbatim' option (which is
       | lacking in other search engines like Bing as far as I can tell)
       | it would become much less useful.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, one cannot enable both 'time' and 'verbatim'
       | option under Tools in Google Search. I guess I should go ask
       | ChatGPT why that is the case...
        
       | 29athrowaway wrote:
       | This is not a real phenomenon, but the ad revenue from this
       | article will.
        
       | jasmer wrote:
       | Yes and no.
       | 
       | Yes, finally we are going to see a shift, but their 'dominance'
       | is not going to necessarily change that much in some kind of
       | 'step function'.
       | 
       | I suggest that Siri is about to get a lot better, and act more
       | like we wanted it to act a decade ago.
       | 
       | As amazing as ChatGPT is, it's actually not that useful for most
       | regular people other than as a more human form of search.
       | 
       | I think Google results will improve quickly enough that whatever
       | MS does will seem novel but not necessarily have some kind of
       | huge consumer impact.
       | 
       | We'll see search for company info and help directories get a lot
       | better.
       | 
       | Remember that both MS and Google are 'etablished' companies, the
       | later a bit slow moving and not firing on all fronts.
       | 
       | Why would anyone think a company that can't get Skype to work, is
       | going to marvel the world with some 'new thing'.
       | 
       | OpenAI folks are on a roll, rapidly trying to make cool looking
       | experiments, focused on 'wowing the world' not on direct
       | revenues. Making that translate into products is another
       | dimension altogether.
       | 
       | The most interesting stuff will come from startups.
        
       | sys32768 wrote:
       | Maybe what we need is an all-seeing AI browser plug-in that
       | transforms and decrapifies the SERPS and sites themselves.
        
       | dilap wrote:
       | Microsoft's integration of ChatGPT with Bing is really bad. No-
       | one wants a busy search page with a side-bar of ChatGPT; what's
       | the point of that?
       | 
       | The correct interface for ChatGPT + search is just...ChatGPT.
       | _But_ it can also show you a list of web search results, when it
       | 's appropriate.
       | 
       | A super-clean interface, that always shows you exactly what you
       | want.
       | 
       |  _That_ would be a killer feature and represent a real threat to
       | Google.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | jurmous wrote:
         | In the demo there was a clear Chat tab so you could go into
         | chat mode. With the sources below each answer.
         | 
         | I guess they opted for the search results as the default with
         | the chat on the side as the link list is the current interface.
        
         | goatlover wrote:
         | As long as it's easy to see the list of web results so I can go
         | there instead of just relying on the model. Also because there
         | are reasons to go to sites other than just getting a summary.
         | Like maybe you need or want to use that site to do something.
        
         | RockyMcNuts wrote:
         | I haven't seen anything like Bing + ChatGPT since the Road
         | Runner's rocket powered roller skates.
        
         | mattwad wrote:
         | As someone else said, the problem is ChatGPT lies straight to
         | your face, whereas at least Google's answers are based on
         | structured data by someone. It's traceable, whereas I would not
         | trust ChatGPT ever to tell me the correct temperature to cook a
         | steak.
        
           | antihipocrat wrote:
           | The SEO content served up by Google search nowadays isn't
           | much better, and from what I've seen I don't think a lot of
           | it is being generated by someone either.
        
           | jurmous wrote:
           | I don't know if you saw screenshots of the Prometheus model
           | inside Bing. But it presents the sources with all its
           | answers. It is no ChatGPT but a new model created for search.
        
           | wcoenen wrote:
           | "The new Bing also cites all its sources". That's a quote
           | from the microsoft announcement.
           | 
           | https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/02/07/reinventing-
           | sear...
        
             | bergie wrote:
             | And users of the New Bing will certainly verify that the
             | sources say what ChatGPT claims they do?
        
               | mistercow wrote:
               | If they don't, then the traceability of traditional
               | search results is just as useless.
        
           | dilap wrote:
           | Yes, it's a good point -- in its current form it's a bit hit
           | or miss, since it can completely lie to you.
           | 
           | At least one person is working on this:
           | 
           | https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623388682454732801
           | 
           | While something like this would of course be incredible, even
           | just current ChatGPT + the ability to web search for you
           | would be quite amazing.
           | 
           | If MS isn't ready to completely replace Bing, then they
           | should've made it an entirely separate page: bchat.com or
           | something.
        
           | TheCoelacanth wrote:
           | ChatGPT lies to your face, while Google just finds other
           | peoples lies and shows you a list of the best ones.
        
             | emodendroket wrote:
             | And the latter gives me a lot more to go on when I wish to
             | evaluate what I'm reading.
        
             | dyno12345 wrote:
             | and by "best" we mean interspersed within 12 pages of
             | heavily ad laden blogspam
        
           | GreedClarifies wrote:
           | The correct temperature to sous vide a steak depends on the
           | desired level of doneness. The following temperatures are
           | guidelines for cooking steaks to different levels of
           | doneness:
           | 
           | Rare: 120-125degF (49-52degC) Medium-Rare: 130-135degF
           | (54-57degC) Medium: 140-145degF (60-63degC) Medium-Well:
           | 150-155degF (66-68degC) Well-Done: 160degF (71degC) and above
           | 
           | It's important to note that cooking steaks at low
           | temperatures for extended periods of time can result in a
           | more tender and flavorful finished product, compared to
           | cooking steaks at high temperatures for a shorter amount of
           | time.
           | 
           | Looks great to me.
        
             | cjm42 wrote:
             | The problem is that if you don't already know the answer,
             | it's hard to tell the difference between ChatGPT giving you
             | the correct information and ChatGPT authoritatively
             | spouting the wrong information.
             | 
             | Here's a chat I had today with ChatGPT:
             | 
             | Q: Who was the first US president with a last name starting
             | with R?
             | 
             | A: Rutherford B. Hayes was the first US president with a
             | last name starting with "R."
             | 
             | Q: no, a surname starting with R
             | 
             | A: Rutherford B. Hayes was the first U.S. President with a
             | surname starting with "R."
             | 
             | Q: no, Rutherford is his first name
             | 
             | A: The first US president with a surname starting with "R"
             | was Richard Nixon.
             | 
             | Q: no, Richard is his first name
             | 
             | A: The first U.S. President with a surname starting with
             | "R" was James A. Garfield.
             | 
             | Here it's obvious ChatGPT is spouting nonsense, but in
             | other cases it may not be.
        
           | nearbuy wrote:
           | Perhaps a bad example, since ChatGPT consistently gets the
           | steak temperature right (or at least gives the same values as
           | Google). Internal temperature of about 130-135degF
           | (54-57degC) for medium rare, etc.
        
             | emodendroket wrote:
             | "It tells me the right answer" and "I trust it to give me
             | the right answer" are two different propositions.
        
               | basch wrote:
               | Trust but verify
        
               | emodendroket wrote:
               | If I need to verify the information somewhere trustworthy
               | why not just skip the first step where I get unreliable
               | information?
        
               | nearbuy wrote:
               | It's just one data point but it may indicate the
               | commenter is miscalibrated on what ChatGPT answers well
               | and what it doesn't.
               | 
               | It reminds me of when Wikipedia was new and we were told
               | repeatedly that we couldn't trust it (by teachers,
               | articles, etc.). It didn't matter if we could point to
               | studies that found Wikipedia had similar accuracy to
               | other encyclopedias. They objected on the grounds that
               | anyone could edit it and anything on it _could_ be wrong
               | and there's no publisher or paid editors to ensure
               | accuracy.
               | 
               | ChatGPT tends to do well on common questions, where the
               | answer is plastered in hundreds of articles across the
               | internet. The internal cooking temperature of a steak is
               | a great example of this. There are many other types of
               | questions it fails at.
               | 
               | A better example of where you shouldn't trust ChatGPT is
               | asking it the distance between two cities. It'll get it
               | right for a few common pairs of cities (eg London to
               | Paris), but it'll give you a wrong answer for most less
               | common pairs (eg London to Cairo).
        
         | ajdoingnothing wrote:
         | Completely agree. Heck, even the current 'waiting list' page
         | (bing.com/new) looks so outdated and a mess. I don't know
         | whether it is the font, the colors, the composition or
         | margins.. Bing itself looks like a mess too. Microsoft truly
         | has no taste.
        
           | eclipxe wrote:
           | And the spammy "set your default to Bing to get priority
           | access". Ugh. It's still MS.
        
         | strangescript wrote:
         | This, I nearly laughed out loud when I saw it. They still don't
         | get it. Google literally figured this out 20 years ago and beat
         | yahoo.
        
       | kazinator wrote:
       | > _Once trained on this giant corpus of natural language, the
       | chatbot can, when prompted by users' instructions, produce a
       | fluently written answer rather than merely serving up a list of
       | links._
       | 
       | A word salad of untrustworthy bullshit instead of the pages you
       | were looking for is not going to upend search.
       | 
       | It's not a replacement for search in any way.
       | 
       | Now if the search engine could find pages which satisfy complex
       | queries in natural language, referencing content and
       | relationships among content, that could be something.
        
       | theonlybutlet wrote:
       | Bing is my default on my work and home PC as I use edge, I've
       | been too lazy to change it. For the most part, whenever I
       | accidentally search something on Bing, I end up having to open up
       | Google and search it again. Their results are still way better.
        
       | ilc wrote:
       | People seem to forget: AI is about data, the ability to process
       | it, and having a few smart folks to do algorithms. The third part
       | is actually the smallest and easiest part of the trilogy for AI.
       | 
       | Google, has all three. The real question is can they not shoot
       | themselves in the foot while doing it.
       | 
       | Also SEO will always target the market leader.
       | 
       | As far as Bing's results: I keep thinking Google is trashy. Then
       | I use Bing and I remember just how good Google is. That's my
       | personal opinion. I am NOT going to claim they are SEO, and spam
       | immune, far from. But they seem to do better than Bing in getting
       | what I mean right.
       | 
       | ChatGPT may help MS, but is it a bandaid? Is it just a good PR
       | bump? Who knows... Displacing Google is a large task.. and not
       | one I'm sure I want MS to win. But I look forward to them trying,
       | if only to make Google do better.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > People seem to forget: AI is about data, the ability to
         | process it, and having a few smart folks to do algorithms. The
         | third part is actually the smallest and easiest part of the
         | trilogy for AI.
         | 
         | MS has them all three too.
         | 
         | And since, as you say, the algorithm part is not the most
         | difficult part, others may enter the playing field soon (we
         | already have DDG and Kagi, for example, with Kagi now
         | experimenting with LLMs too).
        
           | ilc wrote:
           | The compute side needs to be solved with money. That may be a
           | hurdle for DDG/Kagi.
           | 
           | MS has the money. Data is by far and away the hardest part,
           | and DDG's own privacy policies etc will hurt it here, alas.
           | 
           | Personally, I think it is Google's race to win. But they have
           | to DO it. If I start getting better results off DDG or Bing,
           | I'll switch. I'm fickle, and own no loyality to Google.
           | 
           | I just want my StackExchange answers faster, before Google
           | Coder, and Co-Pilot replace me. /s
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | It's way too premature to say that ChatGPT will overtake Google,
       | not to mention Google still derives about half of its income from
       | Youtube and 3rd party publisher ads. Every few years the media
       | runs with some story about how Bing, Yahoo or whatever will
       | overtake Google. Never even comes close.
        
         | jsnell wrote:
         | > Google still derives about half of its income from Youtube
         | and 3rd party publisher ads
         | 
         | Their Q4 2022 revenue was $76B [0]. YouTube + 3p ads were a
         | combined $16.5B. That's about 20%, not about half.
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2022Q4_alphabet_earnings...
        
       | ElectricSpoon wrote:
       | My fear is that more AI will hinder our ability to literally
       | search for stuff. The future I dread includes more profiling, a
       | stronger search bubble, all of which will just make it the death
       | of the objective search engine. As fascinating as AI can be, I
       | don't think it's what search engines are missing. That is
       | certainly not what I need.
       | 
       | Even today, engines rank your results by geoip, trying to be
       | smarter than you ask them to be. Two individuals doing the same
       | quoted search will get different results. Perhaps I'm just
       | getting old, but I do miss when searching was a matter of writing
       | a good query, not a matter of what the engine thinks you will
       | want to ask next and what else might interest you.
        
       | dontreact wrote:
       | I would bet money that the answer here is no
        
         | cwilby wrote:
         | Good odds:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
        
         | 3327 wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | Yeah, people underestimate Google.
         | 
         | They have a really compelling package that is hard to replace,
         | especially how well they understand local queries.
         | 
         | That as well as strong funneling factors in place, Chrome and
         | Android being some of the biggest.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | chem83 wrote:
       | Microsoft's insistence on reusing the bing brand and website is
       | baffling to me. No one wants to use that shit, but in classical
       | Microsoft fashion, they're too attached to old decisions. What a
       | missed opportunity to do like they did with IE and kill it in
       | favor or something new and fresh.
       | 
       | Ultimately, Microsoft will make it easier for Google to catch up
       | because its internal culture is and will continue to be
       | unchanged, no matter how much technology they inject from OpenAI.
       | Make no mistake, behind the shiny PR, it's still the messy Bing
       | AI organization, the demoralized Microsoft Research organization
       | and good ol' Microsoft.
        
       | siva7 wrote:
       | So i tried Bing again after almost a decade for their ChatGTP
       | integration. I can't be the only one who thought this is
       | Yahoo/AltaVista/Lycos/etc. revisited. It's a fucking portal
       | spamming me with news coverage, not a search engine
        
       | saudade97 wrote:
       | I don't get the HN hate of Google as a search tool. Yes, SEO has
       | made searching more difficult, but Google is still by far the
       | best search engine provided that your searches are focused and
       | you use search tools (e.g., excluding terms, focusing on certain
       | sites, etc.). I've tried other search engines (e.g., DDG, Bing)
       | and they just aren't as good as Google.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | bitcurious wrote:
         | Remember when image search didn't give up after ~100 images?
         | Google has definitely gotten worse, and it's obviously margins-
         | motivated.
        
         | ranting-moth wrote:
         | Many of the HN crowd remember when Google came into existence
         | and how wonderful it was.
         | 
         | If it existed on the internet, Google would find it for you and
         | it was usually the top resault. It was amazing.
         | 
         | Today, it's a shadow of its former self.
         | 
         | You regularly have to search, wade through the ads that are
         | written like informative articles, adjust your query slightly
         | and repeat the process. It's rubbish.
        
           | Aeolun wrote:
           | I mean, Google still often gives me the result, but it's such
           | a chore now. And they can't even seem to deal with what I
           | consider extremely obvious blogspam.
           | 
           | Content that is just literally directly copied from other
           | domains often.
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | What these people are remembering is when the web was small
           | and dorks-only. Now it is huge and full of normies of all
           | kinds, including every shade of commercialism and fraud.
        
             | ranting-moth wrote:
             | Yes, but other search engines existed before Google. They
             | weren't very useful or pleasant to use.
             | 
             | Google solved a big problem and then went to sleep while
             | counting their money. They even started to be evil.
             | 
             | Now the original problem has evolved but Google hasn't
             | managed to keep up.
        
             | pirate787 wrote:
             | Incorrect, the web was mainstream by 1996, two years before
             | Google even launched.
        
               | xyzelement wrote:
               | In 1996, did every traffic attorney publish a thought
               | piece on why you should fight your summons in X county?
               | 
               | No, back then if you searched a topic you were MUCH more
               | likely to find self hosted content from someone who
               | nerded out on an issue and is sharing their insight, not
               | publishing boilerplate because they feel they need to.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | The number of internet _users_ is currently 150x more
               | than it was in 1996. I don 't think you can make an
               | argument that it was already mainstream in '96 with a few
               | tens of millions of people on it.
               | 
               | The web was overwhelmingly informational up to an
               | inflection point where it became overwhelmingly
               | commercial. That's the thing people are upset about.
        
               | JohnFen wrote:
               | This is absolutely right. The web died about then,
               | really. What we have now is shameful and embarrassing,
               | and society is poorer for it.
               | 
               | And it's not Google's fault.
               | 
               | But it also remains true that Google's search just
               | doesn't work well for many people, and that some
               | alternatives work better for them.
        
           | pirate787 wrote:
           | This, exactly. Google was a revelation, a clean page with the
           | exact result you needed, at a time when many orgs were
           | putting lots of high quality content online. The other search
           | engines were busy portals and weren't indexing the new
           | content.
        
         | tester756 wrote:
         | >your searches are focused
         | 
         | are what?
         | 
         | >I don't get the HN hate of Google as a search tool. Yes, SEO
         | has made searching more difficult, but Google is still by far
         | the best search engine provided that your searches are focused
         | and you use search tools (e.g., excluding terms, focusing on
         | certain sites, etc.). I've tried other search engines (e.g.,
         | DDG, Bing) and they just aren't as good as Google.
         | 
         | What if their search is better just because way, way way more
         | people use it?
        
           | emodendroket wrote:
           | What if indeed? What does that imply to you? I don't really
           | care why it is so much better so long as it is.
        
         | OJFord wrote:
         | I've used DDG exclusively for about 10 years, it's good enough
         | that I don't realise I'm missing out.
        
         | JohnFen wrote:
         | > you use search tools (e.g., excluding terms, focusing on
         | certain sites, etc.).
         | 
         | Focusing on certain sites? If you know what site you want, why
         | not just go there? You don't need Google for that.
         | 
         | I've had very limited success with their search modifiers. The
         | main one I want to work is the literal search by putting things
         | in quotes. But I don't think that has ever actually worked for
         | me.
         | 
         | If they brought back the + modifier and it worked, that would
         | also go far.
        
       | Ingaz wrote:
       | I think that ChatGPT3 does not matter a lot.
       | 
       | But a lot of people fed up with Google and will be glad to try
       | something different.
       | 
       | It's like when Apple came and eat 15-20% of market of notebooks.
       | 
       | Dominance of Microsoft still not ended.
       | 
       | Actually I suspect that Yandex search is better - I like how they
       | preview answers for technical questions. Picture search - seems
       | that Google is the worst.
       | 
       | Maybe it's time to start search different topics in different
       | engines.
       | 
       | Hm. Actually AI could help to implement such functionality
        
       | danShumway wrote:
       | I don't understand this hype and I feel like I'm looking at
       | different products than everyone else is. There are very few
       | complaints I have about Google that I think this technology helps
       | solve, and for most of my complaints, getting summaries of
       | searches makes the situation worse, not better. To be completely
       | clear: even if the AI was _perfect_ , I don't know that I want
       | even an actual human being to sit down and summarize an answer to
       | my question rather than show me a list of search results.
       | 
       | The problem with search is not that our answers aren't summarized
       | well, it's that the quality of information returned for those
       | searches is getting increasingly worse, and we are getting
       | increasingly worse at categorizing or filtering that information
       | in any useful way. And LLMs pulling information in and
       | summarizing it for me is... not helpful? It's summarizing the
       | same garbage, except now sometimes it also summarizes it wrong.
       | 
       | But it's not even an issue with the quality (although the quality
       | of information from LLMs is also pretty over-hyped I think).
       | Conceptually, I don't know that this is a product that I would
       | ever want. I can't think of any time where I've sat down to do a
       | search on Google or DuckDuckgo and thought, "You know what I
       | want? I want these results presented to me in a less structured
       | format using natural language and with less granular knowledge
       | about where each specific statement is coming from."
       | 
       | At least Bing seems to be trying to do inline citations in some
       | of its answers, which is a step up over Google's AI announcement,
       | I guess?
       | 
       | Maybe I'm just in the minority on that. Users seem to like this a
       | lot. But my ideal version of the Internet is one that decreases
       | the number of abstractions and layers and summaries between
       | myself and primary data rather than increasing them. My ideal
       | Internet is a tool that makes it easier for me to actually find
       | things, not a tool that increases the layers between me and the
       | raw source/information that I'm looking for. I already have
       | enough trouble needing to double-check news summaries of debates,
       | events, and research. Getting another summary of the summaries
       | doesn't seem helpful to me?
       | 
       | I can think of some ways where I might use an LLM in search, even
       | really exciting ways where maybe it could help with
       | categorization or grouping, but it doesn't seem like Google/Bing
       | are interested in pursuing any of that. I look at both the Bing
       | and Google announcements and just think, "why are you making it
       | worse?" But who knows, maybe the actual products will sell me on
       | the concept more.
        
         | emodendroket wrote:
         | You know what it reminds me a lot of? CPedia. It's basically
         | the same concept, though, from the sound of it, much more
         | capably executed.
         | 
         | I do see LLMs as potentially more useful for "fanciful"
         | queries, like "what can I make with kale, tomatoes, and
         | mushrooms?"
        
       | guyzero wrote:
       | Considering people still go to Bing just to type "Google" I think
       | the answer is no.
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | No.
       | 
       | The one to end Google's search dominance is an open source
       | ChatGPT alternative. That will disrupt both Google, Bing and
       | OpenAI.
       | 
       | It's that simple.
        
       | stephc_int13 wrote:
       | Google is already a zombie company, and has been for some time,
       | still insanely rich and powerful, but they're not cool anymore
       | and I think they could be replaced very easily.
       | 
       | Large corporations can seemingly stay alive and kicking for a
       | long time after their death. Nokia, Kodak, Palm, RIM just to name
       | a few.
       | 
       | I've witnessed the demise of Palm, then Nokia and RIM, following
       | similar patterns, when they start reacting it is already over.
       | 
       | RIP Google.
        
       | gcanyon wrote:
       | I'm old enough that I remember switching between Yahoo,
       | AskJeeves, AltaVista, and others, before abandoning them all for
       | Google. I also remember experimenting with a friend to test the
       | search engines, and I remember the question/query I used to
       | perform the test: I had (at the time) a vague recollection that
       | the level of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans near the Panama
       | Canal is different; that in addition to raising ships over the
       | isthmus, the canal has to raise them overall in one direction,
       | and lower them in the other. That seems bizarre, since the oceans
       | are connected south of South America, but that was my memory, so
       | I asked the search engines. Google was the one engine that
       | returned sites that confirmed my vague memory.
       | 
       | So of course, I just tried this with ChatGPT. It glitched mid-
       | response, but here's the entire exchange:
       | 
       | Me: Is the level of the ocean the same on both sides of the
       | Panama Canal?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: No, the ocean level is not the same on both sides of the
       | Panama Canal. The Panama Canal is a man-made waterway that
       | connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, and its locks
       | raise and lower ships to accommodate differences in sea level
       | between the two oceans. -- Load failed -- I hit retry The
       | Atlantic Ocean side of the canal is higher than the Pacific Ocean
       | side, with a difference in elevation of approximately 26 meters
       | (85 feet). This difference in elevation is compensated for by a
       | system of locks, which raise and lower ships to the appropriate
       | level for transit through the canal. The locks fill with water
       | from the higher ocean and drain into the lower ocean, allowing
       | ships to pass from one ocean to the other without having to
       | navigate significant differences in sea level.
       | 
       | Me: Why is the level of the ocean different?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: The difference in sea level between the Atlantic and
       | Pacific sides of the Panama Canal is due to various geological
       | and oceanographic factors.
       | 
       | One of the main reasons is the shape of the landmass and ocean
       | basins. The Atlantic Ocean is relatively shallow and has a
       | broader continental shelf, while the Pacific Ocean is deeper and
       | has a narrower shelf. This shape influences the ocean currents
       | and tides, and helps to maintain a difference in sea level
       | between the two oceans.
       | 
       | Another factor is the prevailing winds and currents in the
       | region. The trade winds in the Pacific and the prevailing
       | westerlies in the Atlantic both play a role in shaping the sea
       | levels on their respective sides of the canal.
       | 
       | Additionally, the location of the Panama Canal at the narrowest
       | point of the Central American isthmus has a significant impact on
       | the difference in sea level between the two oceans. The geography
       | of the region funnels ocean currents and water into the narrow
       | channel, leading to differences in water pressure and sea level
       | on either side.
       | 
       | In summary, the difference in sea level between the Atlantic and
       | Pacific sides of the Panama Canal is due to a combination of
       | geological and oceanographic factors, including the shape of the
       | landmass and ocean basins, prevailing winds and currents, and the
       | geography of the region.
       | 
       | -- comment -- Although ChatGPT is correct that the levels differ,
       | it is wrong about the amount: it's nowhere near 85 feet. It gives
       | believable reasons for the difference, but doesn't mention tides,
       | which (as I understand it) are a significant factor. It also
       | doesn't mention salinity, which (again, as I understand it) is
       | also a factor. I gave it a chance to catch the error:
       | 
       | Me: Is the difference really 85 feet?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: The difference in elevation between the Atlantic and
       | Pacific sides of the Panama Canal is approximately 26 meters, or
       | approximately 85 feet. However, it's worth noting that this
       | figure can vary slightly due to tides, seasonal changes, and
       | other factors. The exact difference in elevation can also depend
       | on the specific location within the canal, as some areas may be
       | slightly higher or lower than others. Nevertheless, the
       | difference in elevation between the two sides is typically around
       | 85 feet.
       | 
       | -- Comment -- No luck correcting that 85 feet number. I also
       | asked about tides and salinity:
       | 
       | Me: Do tides or salinity contribute to the difference?
       | 
       | ChatGPT: Tides and salinity can contribute to the difference in
       | sea level between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Panama
       | Canal, but the main factor is the shape of the landmass and ocean
       | basins, the prevailing winds and currents, and the geography of
       | the region.
       | 
       | Tides do have an impact on the sea level in the canal, as they
       | can cause fluctuations in the water level on both sides. However,
       | the impact of tides on the difference in sea level between the
       | two oceans is relatively small compared to the other factors
       | mentioned above.
       | 
       | Salinity can also influence the sea level, as differences in
       | salinity can cause water to expand or contract, leading to
       | changes in sea level. However, the impact of salinity on the
       | difference in sea level between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of
       | the Panama Canal is also relatively small, as differences in
       | salinity in the canal are primarily caused by fresh water inputs
       | from rivers and rainfall, rather than differences in ocean
       | salinity.
       | 
       | In summary, while tides and salinity can contribute to the
       | difference in sea level in the Panama Canal, the main factor is
       | the shape of the landmass and ocean basins, the prevailing winds
       | and currents, and the geography of the region.
       | 
       | -- Comment -- Much has been made of ChatGPT's (sometimes
       | unfounded) confidence. I don't know enough about the ocean-level
       | subject to judge here. Clearly ChatGPT is confident, but is it
       | correct? I don't know. Given that a quick Google search wasn't
       | able to convince me that ChatGPT is wrong (apart from the 85 feet
       | thing) I'm calling this even on the facts. The experience asking
       | ChatGPT was clearly easier than Google.
        
         | yunohn wrote:
         | > difference in sea level between the two oceans
         | 
         | Honestly, the number of times ChatGPT inserts this and
         | variations of fluff is absolutely bordering on insane. Like,
         | that was your question - why include it in every single
         | sentence of the answer...
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | fdgsdfogijq wrote:
       | How could they have left such a massive gap in their product.
       | They literally have the model and resources to revolutionize
       | search. We all know LLMs will hurt their ad revenue, but
       | regardless they have to have known this was coming. This is so
       | similar to FB getting caught off guard by TikTok. There was a gap
       | in the utility of their product (TikTok enabled grass roots
       | content creation), and they just left it wide open.
       | 
       | Its some combination of:
       | 
       | 1. ChatGPT is so much better than previous versions that Google
       | themselves was stunned by the utility.
       | 
       | 2. Incompetence/Gross negligence across Google
       | 
       | 3. No way for them to reconcile the lost ad revenue, so they
       | released nothing. This case is hard to argue for, as they would
       | know theyre a sitting duck.
       | 
       | Regardless I am hoping for a massive Google failure. Theyre the
       | ones responsible for the SEO content waste land that is the
       | modern internet. We have all suffered at the feet of their ad
       | machine
        
         | hgsgm wrote:
         | 4. Google Search already has lots of useful AI already in it,
         | but Google didn't want to integrate a racist, confabulating
         | chatbot, forgetting that modern users have no preference for
         | truth over lies.
         | 
         | Why are you blaming Google for not being perfect while making
         | the best free search engine, after you spent your whole life
         | refusing to pay for a non-free one?
        
           | fdgsdfogijq wrote:
           | If OpenAI is willing to release it and Microsoft invested
           | 10B, I have a very hard time believing that censoring the
           | model is impossible. Microsoft 100% did their due diligence
           | on the model.
           | 
           | Google is a monopoly, there is nothing anyone can do. Their
           | search engine and business model has structured the internet
           | and thus society. This thing needs to die
        
             | ESMirro wrote:
             | This is the same Microsoft that had to close down their
             | Twitter AI "Tay" after a single day because it immediately
             | became a "racist asshole" (as per The Verge) in 2016?
             | 
             | The same OpenAI ran by Sam Altman, who just last year was
             | part of a crypto biometric scam called "Worldcoin" that
             | attempted to collect biometric data from some of the worlds
             | poorest in exchange for a shitcoin?
             | 
             | I'm sure they've done their due diligence and aren't just
             | pushing out a broken product as quickly as possible after
             | it went viral because they saw dollar signs...
        
               | peyton wrote:
               | Everyone on the planet can already talk to racists by
               | typing in 4chan.org. In the meantime, I've found ChatGPT
               | useful for learning zsh commands.
        
               | ESMirro wrote:
               | I'm pleased you have the privilege to just ignore the
               | potential negative outcomes of this technology, that as
               | per the marketing hype is set to become the new way the
               | world interacts with information, owned by two unsavoury
               | characters who have history failing to protect the most
               | vulnerable.
        
       | rafaelturk wrote:
       | Well I'm done with Google, looking forward ChatGPT and Bing being
       | serious competition
        
       | jay_kyburz wrote:
       | I don't want an AI trained on the sea of garbage that is the
       | modern web to answer my questions, but I would love an AI to draw
       | on a curated, hand crafted, trusted database of the worlds
       | knowledge.
        
       | endisneigh wrote:
       | I'd be curious to hear from someone who has a non trivial amount
       | of money shorting Google. Anyone can say Google sucks.
        
         | meindnoch wrote:
         | I'm $5k short GOOG at 10x leverage.
        
       | karmasimida wrote:
       | No
       | 
       | Unless Bard sucks too much
        
         | ilc wrote:
         | Bard will improve. They will learn.
         | 
         | Data is king in AI. And nobody beats Google there. They will
         | figure out how to leverage that advantage.
        
         | 3327 wrote:
         | [dead]
        
       | marricks wrote:
       | I think it's interesting to consider why touchscreen mobile
       | phones won out over their predecessors.
       | 
       | Touchscreens are worse than buttons, it was a new paradigm to
       | learn and the feedback of feeling a button, even small one, is
       | better than not. Probably what forever doomed the Touch Bar.
       | 
       | Now for search, chat gbt will probably always be worse than a
       | list of results you can get yourself for authenticity if you
       | cared about truth.
       | 
       | That said... I don't think people care about truth that much
       | these days so a response that seems correct is probably good
       | enough. Terrifying times we live in folks.
        
         | humanizersequel wrote:
         | >Touchscreens are worse than buttons
         | 
         | Hottest take I've seen on here for a while. In a very specific,
         | very limited set of mobile usecases, buttons may offer a more
         | pleasant experience than a touchscreen. I only say that because
         | there's usually exceptions to any statement, but I can't
         | actually think of one.
         | 
         | Touchscreens didn't win because of some lazy sheep-like
         | consumerism, they won because the product is superior. If Chat-
         | GPT style models defeat traditional search engines it will be
         | because the product is better, not because people are content
         | with a response that "seems correct."
        
           | marricks wrote:
           | Maybe let me rephrase: if you have a set interface
           | touchscreens suck. No one would choose to use a touchscreen
           | over a physical keyboard, or steering wheel, or mouse for an
           | fps game.
           | 
           | It's a crap interface compared to others but it's the best to
           | do anything. That's why it won.
        
           | ignite wrote:
           | Buttons are much better than touchscreens, if you have a
           | fixed interface that fits in the space available.
           | 
           | Touchscreens win when you need multiple interfaces in the
           | same amount of space.
        
           | karaterobot wrote:
           | I think it's more that touchscreens are superior for certain
           | kinds of activities, like consuming information in the form
           | of feeds, videos, and images. Mostly because the screen is
           | larger for the same device size. Buttons are more accurate
           | for typing, and often (I believe, without citation) faster
           | for typing as well, even compared to swipe systems.
           | 
           | One is not superior to the other _over all_ , but each is
           | better at certain things. The difference is that more people
           | will pay money to maximize their user experience scrolling
           | through feeds and watching videos, compared to typing emails.
        
           | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
           | Trivial counterpoint: you cannot correctly operate a
           | touchscreen without looking at it (unless the display is
           | essentially one single interactive object). Trying to use a
           | music player via a touch screen while running or cycling is
           | basically impossible unless you look the screen. For this
           | purpose, buttons are better.
           | 
           | When defining "better" you need to indicate the metrics you
           | are using. LM's might be "better" when measured with certain
           | metrics, but like most things are worse when measured using
           | other metrics.
        
           | freitzkriesler2 wrote:
           | To be fair, touchscreens won out because of the Asian,
           | specifically Chinese market. They were too poor to own
           | laptops and wanted big phablets. Hence here we are today.
           | 
           | I still miss my landscape key board phones. The droid 4 still
           | holds a special place in my head.
        
         | ESMirro wrote:
         | Agreed, the whole "this is the new search" has perplexed me.
         | Primarily the idea that this AI is supposed to be the single
         | point of truth. A traditional search allows the user to review
         | a variety of contexts and viewpoints. It's highly concerning
         | that this is something people seem to want (or at least, is
         | being pushed onto them through marketing & hype), despite the
         | huge outcry over algorithms and political agendas over the past
         | few years...
        
           | jay_kyburz wrote:
           | Fairly often I ask the Siri homepod thing a question. It's
           | good at playing music, doing simple math, translating some
           | things. It can sometimes read me a wikipedia page. Far to
           | often it says "I have some web results for that question, ask
           | again from your ipad". In those cases I wish she could
           | summarize and read me the answer.
           | 
           | I can understand why some times you might just want a chat
           | response to a question rather than a web search.
           | 
           | But I swear that if I even suspect Siri's response is
           | influenced by advertising or endorses a product, I will take
           | the homepod and punt it down the street.
        
         | timeon wrote:
         | > Now for search, chat gbt will probably always be worse than a
         | list of results you can get yourself for authenticity if you
         | cared about truth.
         | 
         | Irony of this article, predicting end of Google, is that
         | articles like this are going to be replaced by these summaries
         | too.
        
         | bobthepanda wrote:
         | Touchscreen keyboards disappear and free up their real estate.
         | That's the main advantage on phones.
        
           | marricks wrote:
           | Yep! And people just want big screens to view content.
        
             | doctor_eval wrote:
             | Well what else are we supposed to do with them?
        
       | chias wrote:
       | While Google certainly has its faults and I am frustrated with
       | its trajectory, I would bet money that this is an article pushing
       | the nonsensical notion that AI language models will replace
       | search engines.
       | 
       | Edit: based on the subtitle, it seems like I am correct.
        
         | rileyphone wrote:
         | How is that nonsensical? Seems quite likely to me, especially
         | if they can ground them better in a factual knowledge base.
         | Most search engine queries are looking for information.
        
           | phailhaus wrote:
           | The problem is that this literally does not exist today.
           | ChatGPT is a chatbot, it has no factual knowledge base. It's
           | optimized for dialogue.
           | 
           | That's why it's absolutely nonsensical to see all these
           | articles, because they are talking about a chatbot as if it's
           | trivial to turn it into a search machine. That's an entirely
           | different problem.
        
             | candiodari wrote:
             | ChatGPT is pretty much the definition of a troll. It's only
             | mission in life is to keep you talking to it. To do that it
             | has no problem with lying, confusing, and various other
             | deceitful methods you wouldn't accept from a human.
        
       | Invictus0 wrote:
       | Do you people really want AI generated answers? As if the
       | internet wasn't bland enough as it is. This forum has been
       | soapboxing for years about the longtail of blogs and BBs and
       | niche sites, right up to the moment that Bing got chatgpt.
        
         | chomp wrote:
         | I just want Google to fall, nothing much more than that. I
         | personally am going to continue using Kagi, but will quietly
         | cheer Microsoft eating Google's lunch.
        
           | LightDub wrote:
           | How old are you? I don't mean this to be offensive. It's just
           | I remember when the same was said about Microsoft when Google
           | was up and coming.
           | 
           | I really am getting old ...
        
           | fdgsdfogijq wrote:
           | I would love to see google fail. They have held the internet
           | hostage for far too long
        
       | outside1234 wrote:
       | No
        
       | rexreed wrote:
       | Judging from the decreasing quality of Google Search I'd say
       | they've been doing it to themselves over the past decade
       | regardless of large language models or not. However, that being
       | said, Google is still super dominant and when people say "SEO"
       | they generally mean Google search results. And until my mom stops
       | using Google as the default search, I wouldn't count them out of
       | being the dominant search engine for some time.
        
       | RosanaAnaDana wrote:
       | The gaming of SEO has been quietly destroying the utility of
       | search writ large as a mechanism for quite a while.
       | 
       | Over the last year, its become palpable.
       | 
       | Google has such utility in this regard that in some cases, a
       | hallucinating lie-machine offers better answer than an index of
       | what information is available on the internet.
       | 
       | This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge of
       | SEO driven content in their searches. They can do better. They've
       | chosen to not do so.
        
         | weaksauce wrote:
         | there is that service that you can pay for that offers "high
         | quality" but i haven't tried it. can't remember the name off
         | the top of my head but it was on hn within the last few weeks
         | iirc
        
           | amatix wrote:
           | https://kagi.com ?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | svachalek wrote:
         | Google has been up against SEO for decades and the motivations
         | are much stronger on the other side of the battle. ChatGPT is
         | running off a fixed training set that no one has had a chance
         | to game yet. When someone tries to build a true, current AI
         | search engine we're going to see a whole new level of
         | hallucinating lie machine.
        
           | johnla wrote:
           | This.
           | 
           | Also, once the ChatGPT AI takes off and becomes ubiquitous,
           | then what if there is a lack of credible content for it to
           | train on?
        
         | Hamuko wrote:
         | I can't wait for people to switch over from search engine
         | optimization to AI model optimization: figuring out what kind
         | of content you need to produce in order for Google's and
         | OpenAI's models to deliver your message as gospel.
        
           | beamgirl wrote:
           | I'm actually expecting AI training data to turn into a snake
           | eating its tail. I've been spending the last month not
           | sleeping so I could try to get up to speed on deep learning,
           | and my understanding is that AI trained on AI generated
           | output becomes crap surprisingly quickly, and AI generated
           | content is already starting to proliferate. I have no idea
           | the extent to which this will hinder new models being
           | generated, but I could see it becoming quite the problem.
        
             | adamrezich wrote:
             | the tinfoil take is that everyone in charge is fully aware
             | of this eventual problem such that when it occurs, a
             | solution will be presented: ubiquitous verifiable digital
             | ID technology that's required to use popular social media
             | services, such that everything that a Real Person posts
             | will be signed with said digital ID, thus bringing about
             | the end of online anonymity, and the death of the Internet
             | as we presently know it.
             | 
             | idk, sounds plausible to me, the way things've been going.
        
               | beamgirl wrote:
               | Entirely possible, but the amount of people who moved to
               | Mastodon after Twitter got lit on fire gives me hope that
               | people might explore options if things go a step too far
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Also think of how many people will sell their digital
               | persona to sell AI generated spam for a little cash in
               | return. Ain't nuthin safe from spam.
        
             | runnerup wrote:
             | > AI trained on AI generated output becomes crap
             | surprisingly quickly
             | 
             | Yet GANs work quite well
        
           | quickthrower2 wrote:
           | It will be hilarious. Chat GPT is standing on the shoulders
           | of there being no AI-EO, a bit like Google 1.0 did.
           | 
           | AI will be a victim of it's own success too. Or it will need
           | to be human researched and curated rather than just letting
           | an algorithm run freely across the web.
        
         | sixQuarks wrote:
         | Agreed, I am looking forward to the disruption of google.
        
           | lagrange77 wrote:
           | I am looking forward to the disruption of SEO.
        
         | ezoe wrote:
         | The last year? Google search was defeated by SEO for more than
         | a decade ago for non-English language such as Japanese.
        
         | doctor_eval wrote:
         | > This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge
         | of SEO driven content in their searches.
         | 
         | I'd argue that they even encouraged it.
        
           | krisroadruck wrote:
           | Been working in SEO for nearly 13 years now - can confirm, a
           | lot of SEO content spam is quite literally Googles fault.
           | Google has forced just about every company to become a
           | publisher as the only way to generate traffic to their site.
           | I promise you the vast majority of companies don't want to
           | spend the money pump out 4-30 pieces of mostly
           | remixed/regurgitated content a month or screw around trying
           | to attract links but this is how the algo works and you get
           | what you measure.
        
             | basch wrote:
             | Exactly. Every time someone with a business says "I want to
             | get to the top of google" the person they are asking for
             | help will respond with some jargony version of "you gotta
             | constantly write content." It is the ONLY answer.
             | 
             | And unfortunately Google has become worse than ever at
             | being able to differentiate between insight and fluff.
        
           | cjbgkagh wrote:
           | it sells more ads at a higher price
        
           | blantonl wrote:
           | This is a fair argument to make. Normalizing web site
           | metadata (which is essentially what SEO is) resulted in
           | Google getting crowdsourced work done for them for free.
           | 
           | It has been a self-fulfilling positive feedback loop since
           | then.
        
         | mywittyname wrote:
         | I suspect the future is far more bleak. At least with "search
         | results", users can scroll down past the SEO content to
         | something more relevant. Once these new chatgpt models take
         | over, it's winner-take-all for search results. Everyone is
         | going to be throwing money at getting their message seen, since
         | it will be the final word.
         | 
         | How much do you think companies are willing to spend to be the
         | answer to, "what is the most reliable car?" or, "who should I
         | vote for?"
        
           | Aeolun wrote:
           | I imagine that ChatGPT would be useless for these things.
           | Immediately saying "I'm sorry dave, I can't answer that" even
           | now.
        
           | DrSiemer wrote:
           | Obviously those are not questions that you can trust an AI
           | language model with. You have social media or real life
           | connections to discuss that.
           | 
           | In theory it is possible that sponsored content will creep
           | in, but that does not invalidate the incredible benefits a
           | well trained language model will have, even despite the
           | occasional for-profit bias.
        
         | kikokikokiko wrote:
         | The quality of Google search has decreased so much over the
         | last few years that I had to resort to using Yandex, a company
         | that has a budget that is orders of magnitude smaller that the
         | Big G and is under the control of a dictatorship.
         | 
         | Google search has two huge problems: SEO and censorship. Search
         | for anything related to products/torrents/streams/politics on
         | Google and your results will SUCK, due to one of the two
         | reasons stated above.
         | 
         | The recent Yandex hack/leak has the cynic in me connecting the
         | dots and, seeing how Google search seems to be facing REAL
         | threats to it's dominance since it's creation... maybe some
         | guys with the deepest pockets in the world are starting to
         | enter WAR mode.
         | 
         | Destroying Yandex advantages on the SEO battlefield by way of
         | divulging their parameters to the world would be the Franz
         | Ferdinand assassination moment of the Great Search War.
        
         | TheCondor wrote:
         | Isn't Google data driven?
         | 
         | Are you asserting that they look at their copious data and
         | decide to make search _worse_ because it makes them more money?
         | Rather than figuring out a way to make search better and then
         | further optimize their advertising income with this better
         | product? And it seems like they 've been pretty damn clever
         | about monetizing quality over the years. It's possible that
         | they have chosen to make search worse for profit, wouldn't be
         | the first time a business did something like that but they have
         | a pretty deep institutional fear of search losing relevance and
         | it's hard to see them doing that.
         | 
         | As a long time user and user of the other guys before google, I
         | think Google is shockingly good at finding specific answers to
         | specific questions that I have about all sorts of things, often
         | with fairly deep technical context. Now what is definitely
         | lacking is in the good old days I'd enter some search terms,
         | get pages of results and then some time later I'd find myself
         | enjoyably down some rabbit hole that is tangential to my search
         | needs on some part of the internet that I never even knew
         | existed before. Maybe I'm too busy with work, but I used to
         | spend a lot more time doing internet "research" to get some
         | specific answers, that time seems to be much more efficient; I
         | _do_ sort of feel like I 'm corralled to smaller portion of the
         | internet than I used to be. I don't feel like I can't find the
         | information but I have had a hard time re-finding some specific
         | web page I found once way back.
         | 
         | Where does ChatGPT and Bard fit in this? I've played with
         | ChatGPT and it's fun, it's neat, I haven't been able to get it
         | to some how synthesize some wisdom though. It's not hard to see
         | it just mimicking things. That might be valuable. That might be
         | fun. Using it to seed search might be an enjoyable thing. Maybe
         | it can help extract context from people to find out the actual
         | question they are asking to find the actual answer they seek.
         | Now I can absolutely see ChatGPT/Bard assisting in me wasting
         | time going down rabbit holes, I'm not sure it'll be as
         | enjoyable or as magical as how it used to be.
         | 
         | Are there some examples of shitty google search you can bring
         | up? I just entered "Roth contribution income limit" and without
         | even going to another website, I got what looks like a legit
         | answer to my question. Now I'll click though a few to make sure
         | it's accurate and authentic; at a glance, it's coming from
         | Schwab and it looks like a legit answer to my question. Bing
         | comes up with the same answer, it's presented in a nice table
         | but it's lower on the page and below a sizable paid ad from
         | Merrill Lynch (edge?)
        
         | AtNightWeCode wrote:
         | They force you to follow their rules so it is cheaper for them
         | to index the site. Then they allow all the SEO hacked content
         | so you have to pay to get above that in the search results. Fun
         | times.
         | 
         | And why is the GoogleBot still on HTTP 1.1...
        
         | massysett wrote:
         | I see this sort of comment a lot, and I honestly don't know
         | what it's talking about. What are people expecting out of
         | Google that it's not delivering?
         | 
         | It can only index stuff that's on the Web. Stuff on the Web is,
         | contrary to what is popularly asserted, only a tiny fraction of
         | all human knowledge.
         | 
         | I think people are forgetting how bad search was before Google.
         | Google drove Web directories to extinction. Remember Yahoo!?
         | Back in that era, if I were looking for something as simple as
         | the University of Michigan, I clicked and drilled down through
         | a Yahoo directory. The obvious search query would have been
         | useless. Google changed all that.
         | 
         | I view Google as the yellow pages. It works well for that. Is
         | it an oracle of knowledge? Of course not. How could I possibly
         | expect to find knowledge on a place where there is no reward
         | for making it available? People producing knowledge don't work
         | for free.
         | 
         | I've tried ChatGPT and it's no better. It serves up stuff that
         | is flat-out wrong.
        
           | qrio2 wrote:
           | Things that i *know* were parts of the internet, that I could
           | find via google 5-10 years ago are no longer possible to
           | find. I get single page search results sometimes, with not
           | even the capability to keep browsing 'more' pages to see
           | things that may be tangentially related. Google has just
           | decided to not show them at all. Remember when the bottom of
           | the page was "Goooooooooooooooogle" and you could click each
           | "o" to go to that page? Haven't seen that in a while, right?
        
             | Kwpolska wrote:
             | > Remember when the bottom of the page was
             | "Goooooooooooooooogle" and you could click each "o" to go
             | to that page? Haven't seen that in a while, right?
             | 
             | That's still a thing, although it seems they're A/B testing
             | its removal. I just opened a private tab (as I always do)
             | and got a boring "More results" button, but I tried another
             | browser (also with a private tab) and got the classic
             | pagination.
        
             | kogus wrote:
             | I just checked and sure enough, the clickable
             | Goooooooooogle is still there at the bottom of search
             | results, with ten clickable "o"s.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | What makes you think these origins still exist? Google is
             | not going to direct you to a page that can't be reached,
             | even if we assume that your memory is accurate and the page
             | existed 10 years ago.
        
             | dmd wrote:
             | > Haven't seen that in a while, right?
             | 
             | It's still there right now.
        
             | joe_the_user wrote:
             | Absolutely this. Google has gotten notably worse in just
             | the last two years.
             | 
             | Today:
             | 
             | * Any term that might be related to a commercial product?
             | That product comes first and frequently only.
             | 
             | * Search for two terms? It will first give it's prefer
             | result for each separately - usually commercial products
             | (ha). And then might give them together.
             | 
             | * Quoted terms are often taken as vague suggestions.
             | Negative sign is often useless, etc.
        
               | sidewndr46 wrote:
               | One of the worst innovations they've introduced is
               | returning results for things you did not search for. At
               | this point, potentially anything is a valid search result
               | for any search query.
        
               | ignite wrote:
               | Google has gotten notably worse in the last few months. I
               | keep getting the feeling it is serving results for a
               | query similar to what I entered, but more popular. It
               | drowns out any results that actually might answer my
               | questions.
        
             | jgalentine007 wrote:
             | I've been having to use Bing to find things. BING.
        
           | gregors wrote:
           | >>> I view Google as the yellow pages
           | 
           | So do I. I can't tell you the last time I even held yellow
           | pages in my hands.
        
           | zug_zug wrote:
           | For one, when I search a recipe, I want less than a 30 page
           | document. I've wanted this for 20 years, and so has everybody
           | else.
        
             | hnuser847 wrote:
             | I feel your pain and switched to high quality, physical
             | cookbooks instead. Recipes on the web are generally garbage
             | unless they come from an author that you've already vetted.
        
             | dahdum wrote:
             | The personal backstory and other "fluff" is actually really
             | useful when selecting a recipe. I was laid up with
             | covid/rebound while traveling over the holidays and lived
             | off Hainanese Chicken Rice delivery. Now I want to make it
             | at home and search for a recipe.
             | 
             | #1 result is a long article with culinary history, detailed
             | instructions, many pictures, and a credited author
             | originally from Shanghai.
             | 
             | #2 result is a simple recipe listing from Buzzfeed. Written
             | by a young white guy from Minnesota who worked as a
             | producer. No fluff, no pictures, no backstory. Doubtful the
             | author ever made the recipe at all. You could grab a recipe
             | database and generate thousands of these pages.
             | 
             | I've been burned by #2 too many times disregard the fluff.
             | It shows their investment in the content.
        
           | rich_sasha wrote:
           | The SEO fiasco means that the index to the Yellow Pages is
           | all wrong. You want to find the Chinese embassy, instead you
           | find Vietnamese takeaway businesses.
           | 
           | In the last 2-3 months search quality for me has absolutely
           | crashed and is barely usable.
        
             | massysett wrote:
             | OK, I searched "chinese embassy" and the top link is
             | "Embassy of the People's Republic of China" at
             | http://us.china-embassy.gov.cn.
             | 
             | I'm willing to accept that maybe you are exaggerating to
             | make a point. Maybe you have a better example that is
             | actually illustrative?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | freitzkriesler2 wrote:
           | In the mid 2000s, I could find my answer easily in the top 5
           | hits.
           | 
           | In the present day, I cannot find my answer on the first
           | page. If I click on the top hits the page is a deluge of
           | useless blogg fluff which takes me more time to find what I
           | am looking for.
           | 
           | More often than not have to add reddit, forum, stackoverflow,
           | etc to find what I am looking for because online communities
           | provide more concise answers.
           | 
           | This is why googles utility has collapsed.
        
           | forrestthewoods wrote:
           | Here's an example for you.
           | 
           | I want you to start a blank slate C (or C++) project. Ask
           | Google how to write heapify, push_heap, and pop_heap in C.
           | Ask ChatGPT the same.
           | 
           | I did this a few weeks ago. I literally could not find the
           | answer on Google. ChatGPT gave me actual C code that I
           | definitely did not trust but did verify.
           | 
           | Google results for questions like that are genuinely awful.
           | It's full of shitty tutorial websites that are full of ads
           | and either don't have the answer I need or don't have it in a
           | convenient form.
        
           | helf wrote:
           | People who respond like you have are either being willfully
           | obtuse about how awful search has gotten or honestly do not
           | remember how it was 5-10 years ago. As others have mentioned,
           | SEO has all but made search useless for anything outside a
           | narrow window of need. I used to be able to do "deep dives"
           | into the dusty corners of the internet to find things using
           | google and now it's about useless for that.
           | 
           | And I've /recently/ hunted for something obscure, couldn't
           | find it, managed to find an old bookmark to it, the server
           | was still online and the content I wanted was still there.
           | And no amount of crafting of a google search would bring it
           | up. And the server in question didn't contain copyrighted
           | material which would have resulted in a takedown block or
           | anything like that.
           | 
           | It's frustrating how /bad/ Google has gotten for anything
           | other than fairly basic, high level "searching".
        
           | basch wrote:
           | The point of google was to RANK content on the web, and
           | surface the BEST content to the top. In that regard it has
           | failed, and the expectation is for them to correct the
           | problem and return to delivering good content first.
           | 
           | It's not that the content doesn't exist or isn't indexed, its
           | that its been drowned out by noise. Sifting through noise
           | better was the entire reason google took off from more
           | standard crawlers. It now returns results worse than crawlers
           | from the previous era.
        
             | emodendroket wrote:
             | > It now returns results worse than crawlers from the
             | previous era.
             | 
             | That is an absurd exaggeration.
        
               | squiffsquiff wrote:
               | Not really everyone's familiar with the example of
               | cooking recipes being breakfast with the author's life
               | story in order to improve their position in Google
               | rankings, but it's far more prevalent than just recipes.
               | Today I tried to look up something about a feature in a
               | particular piece of reasonably popular desktop software.
               | The top hit that wasn't an advert was several years out
               | of date. The second hit was clearly artificially inflated
               | to long form journalism to try and get me to read a
               | thousand words where 10 would do. Duck duck go linked me
               | to some actual recent results, just like I would have
               | expected with the crawlers of the previous era
        
               | basch wrote:
               | Spam masquerading as the answer to my question is WORSE
               | than off topic returns, because it is a trick vs being
               | something I can easily disregard.
               | 
               | Before the results would just not match what I was
               | looking for. Now they do match what I was looking for,
               | except some AI procedurally generated the content to show
               | up when I searched those terms, with no regard for the
               | accuracy of what the page says.
        
               | emodendroket wrote:
               | Then ChatGPT won't satisfy you either.
        
               | basch wrote:
               | It depends on how state works.
               | 
               | If I say "show me the best winter gloves, and only from
               | sites that you can verify actually product tested" and it
               | follows the instruction (ignoring sites that just have a
               | list of popular search results aggregated) then it is
               | better. If it doesn't do what I want, I expect to be able
               | to follow up and teach it.
               | 
               | I expect the chat style stateful search to take
               | instruction for what type of sites I want results from.
               | "Return me a list of websites with recipes for Bolognese
               | that do not have a long story above the recipe. Build a
               | table with the top five results normalized for portion
               | size, comparing and contrasting the ingredients.
               | Highlight unique ingredients in bold."
        
           | lamontcg wrote:
           | > What are people expecting out of Google that it's not
           | delivering?
           | 
           | I mean what you just listed.
           | 
           | Google won the search war because of PageRank eliminating
           | lots of spam, and then something like 15 years of staying
           | ahead of SEO spam and providing useful search.
           | 
           | Lately it seems like they've given up on the arms race and
           | let the SEO spam win, but it isn't clear why.
           | 
           | And Google didn't produce high quality search for free, they
           | used ads and sold the eyeballs they won.
        
           | JohnFen wrote:
           | > What are people expecting out of Google that it's not
           | delivering?
           | 
           | Relevant search results that aren't just marketing sites or
           | the big websites.
           | 
           | > It can only index stuff that's on the Web.
           | 
           | And much of it isn't really exposed by Google search.
           | 
           | > I view Google as the yellow pages. It works well for that
           | 
           | It used to. For me, it stopped working well for that a few
           | years ago and has been getting steadily worse ever since.
        
           | bawolff wrote:
           | A start would be to rank official php/python/etc docs higher
           | than clickbait sites like geeks4geeks
        
             | devonbleak wrote:
             | Amen to this
        
           | emodendroket wrote:
           | I also challenge people's memory of it being so much better.
           | Was it really? Or just different?
        
             | sshine wrote:
             | It was mostly better.
             | 
             | The competition for many kinds of search terms is causing a
             | race to the bottom. E.g. tech docs, lyrics, recipes,
             | reviews.
             | 
             | That's why Kago has a lense for "non-spammy recipe
             | searches" -- there's just so much noise on popular, easily
             | copyable material.
             | 
             | You don't get the best site by popular vote like PageRank
             | was known for, you get the one that generates the most ad
             | revenue.
        
             | squiffsquiff wrote:
             | It was an honest attempt on the crawlers' part and it was a
             | more level playing field. If you didn't find what you
             | wanted on lycos, you could look on Yahoo or Alta Vista or
             | WebCrawler or something instead. For a time there were meta
             | Search engines that allowed you to search other search
             | engine amalgamated results.
        
               | emodendroket wrote:
               | Yeah, you had your choice of several awful results and
               | everyone couldn't shut up about how good Google was when
               | it was available. If people mean "Google used to be
               | better" I'm willing to entertain the idea, but you're out
               | of your mind if you miss using Altavista and Dogpile.
        
               | squiffsquiff wrote:
               | You're comparing Google how it was then. Not how it is
               | now
        
               | emodendroket wrote:
               | With Google right now I find what I am looking for almost
               | all of the time. I can't say that about the golden oldies
               | you're praising.
        
           | polyamid23 wrote:
           | I want a button: "never show me content from this domain
           | again".
        
             | polyamid23 wrote:
             | Follow up: Make a profile out of this. Ah, people who don't
             | want to ever see content from quora or something, do like
             | this other content. Let's rank that higher for those
             | people. Easy opt out, by checking "ignore search profile"
             | checkbox or logout.
        
           | sidewndr46 wrote:
           | Just search for "chocolate chip cookie recipe" and show me a
           | single result that isn't a complete trash website. A
           | significant number are nothing more than ad farms that just
           | load infinite ads in IFRAMEs and similar stuff like that.
        
             | massysett wrote:
             | These two are at the very top of the page. They both are
             | chocolate chip cookie recipes. One has instructional
             | videos. I really don't understand what is wrong with these.
             | 
             | https://www.verybestbaking.com/toll-
             | house/recipes/original-n...
             | 
             | https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/10813/best-chocolate-
             | chip-...
        
             | dahdum wrote:
             | It's buried near the bottom of the page, but here's your
             | huckleberry: https://www.seriouseats.com/the-food-lab-best-
             | chocolate-chip...
             | 
             | Lots of trash out there but Serious Eats is good quality.
        
           | luckylion wrote:
           | > What are people expecting out of Google that it's not
           | delivering?
           | 
           | Not optimize for "most documents indexed" but "highest
           | quality of results". One of them encourages adding spam to
           | their index, the other encourages removing spam from their
           | index.
        
             | gipp wrote:
             | There are _giant_ teams of people at Google whose only job
             | is trying to define things like  "spam" and "seo abuse"
             | more precisely in more diverse contexts. There are equally
             | large armies of people outside of it trying to outwit the
             | first group and find more and more elaborate loopholes and
             | workarounds.
             | 
             | HN is constantly pushing this notion that "spam" is some
             | well-defined, solvable problem, so obviously Google wants
             | it. That narrative just doesn't make sense from any angle.
             | The notion that more click bait _improves_ Google 's bottom
             | line is absurd
        
               | basch wrote:
               | Their giant teams are an organizational failure then.
               | 
               | Product reviews alone, whether it is enterprise software
               | or sports clothing should be something that they can
               | easily comb through by hand, as humans, and uprank sites
               | that are putting out more than affiliate link assemblies.
        
               | bbor wrote:
               | Why wouldn't they do this, if it's scalable and
               | profitable? Is your theory just "incompetence"? I can't
               | prove that's wrong, but I feel the simpler answer is more
               | convincing; that handing off page rank to an army of
               | minimum wage call center workers (for every country &
               | language in the world...) wouldn't be more effective than
               | the existing algorithms at filtering out spam.
        
               | basch wrote:
               | Some form of paralysis. They dont have a single leader
               | who has taken responsibility for it and corrected it.
               | CEO/SVP has too many pots on the stove.
               | 
               | Im legitimately asking, who is responsible for Search at
               | Google? Prabhakar Raghavan is SVP, Search, Assistant &
               | Ads, and I click under him, he has 8 product groups
               | reporting to him, and none of the people are responsible
               | for Search. Yossi Matias is responsible for Search
               | Engineering.
               | 
               | https://theorg.com/org/google
               | 
               | It may at first come off as a laughable answer, but
               | Google Search has been in a directionless spiral since
               | Marissa Mayer left. Her Yahoo tenure was not well
               | received, but at Google she cared about the end quality
               | of the product. Her title was Search Products and User
               | Experience. Notice how we have gone from User Experience
               | to Search Engineering, forgetting about the people who
               | actually use the product.
        
               | Fede_V wrote:
               | Absolutely: the challenge is that any signal that you use
               | to identify "good websites" from "bad websites" will be
               | adversarially optimized by incredibly motivated people.
               | 
               | You are dealing with a moving target that has a huge
               | financial incentive. It's a very difficult problem.
        
               | basch wrote:
               | I don't agree. You start whitelisting good content
               | manually. If babygearlab is the best result for baby
               | gear, you start hardcoding it. If seriouseats is the best
               | result for recipes, you hard code it. If someone better
               | comes along, they get moved up the priority list.
               | 
               | You figure out a way to crowdsource certain decisions and
               | establish who you can trust. Ask them questions with
               | right and wrong answers. You start to tackle it one
               | product category at a time. Instead of pagerank, which
               | was a web of who linked to who" you start figuring which
               | voters you have who consistently turn in good feedback.
               | 
               | This is some form of metamoderation that slashdot tried
               | to implement.
               | 
               | If you are going to be a tastemaker, stop hiding behind
               | "the algorithm" having some mind of its own that cant be
               | controlled.
        
               | bbor wrote:
               | This discussion is pretty sad and frustrating for me. I
               | think your conclusion ("Google has no motive to encourage
               | spam content that rises to the top using SEO tricks") is
               | about as convincing as it gets, but it's completely
               | drowned out by a very vague sense that google is a big
               | company and therefor it's making search worse on purpose.
               | No amount of well-worded HN posts are gonna sway people,
               | imo...
               | 
               | Luckily HN posters don't exactly represent a meaningful
               | portion of the population.
        
           | Aeolun wrote:
           | Search before Google was bad. e.g. I could easily ignore 80%
           | of the results on the first page, but at least it was all
           | actual content.
           | 
           | Then, with Google, it got better and almost all results were
           | relevant.
           | 
           | But we've been regressing over the years, and now we're at
           | the point where 80% of all results are both irrelevant and
           | simply SSO spam.
           | 
           | I find it really hard to believe Google has some of the
           | smartest people in the world on search and they cannot
           | identify this.
        
           | Stagnant wrote:
           | I think that google search's quality decay is a real thing,
           | it takes some real effort to get proper results that aren't
           | SEO'd garbage.
           | 
           | For example, just the other day I was searching for one
           | string that I knew was part of a common code repository. To
           | my surprise google couldn't find anything at all. Yandex on
           | the other hand found the repository immediately and linked to
           | github.
           | 
           | Other common issue with google is the difficulty of finding
           | stuff like forum posts related to the search query. Sure, you
           | could append "reddit" to the query, but there are still
           | plenty of traditional forum sites and some of them have
           | decades worth of discussion. I _Never_ see those sites pop up
           | on a typical google search unless I specifically look for
           | them. Again, with yandex, my experience is much better, it is
           | not uncommon to see posts from forums to be on the first page
           | of results.
        
           | unicornmama wrote:
           | People don't use Google to search the web. They use Google to
           | find answers.
        
           | DrSiemer wrote:
           | Often when looking for an answer I just need to confirm what
           | I already know, or look up something I forgot. Google offers
           | me a bunch of sponsored links first and then sites with the
           | best SEO, which will smother me with all kinds of unrelated
           | crap that I do not want and will never need. I'm even running
           | an extension that removes a ton of blacklisted sites from the
           | search results.
           | 
           | ChatGPT usually gives me the answer that I'm looking for and
           | nothing else. Sometimes it does add extra info, which often
           | teaches me about something that I wasn't aware of at all.
           | 
           | But the greatest benefit is I can ask it to clarify anything
           | I don't understand. I don't need to go on a completely new
           | Google quest, or jump through hoops to register on some site
           | and hope a random internet person will ordain to help me out.
           | I can just ask, in the same conversation, and immediately get
           | clarification.
           | 
           | Many people underestimate the incredible learning
           | opportunities a well trained language model provides. It
           | doesn't matter that it hallucinates or lies. Whatever it
           | claims is usually easy to validate. What matters is the speed
           | with which you can find uncluttered new leads or answers.
        
           | jononor wrote:
           | What is actually the fraction of human knowledge available on
           | the web? How does the trajectory look like? What is the
           | fraction for knowledge produced the last 5 years?
        
           | DarknessFalls wrote:
           | > Back in that era, if I were looking for something as simple
           | as the University of Michigan, I clicked and drilled down
           | through a Yahoo directory.
           | 
           | Google didn't innovate that much except to provide a clutter-
           | free interface and slightly better search. Prior to that, I
           | used Webcrawler and then HotBot. A search like what you
           | described would have easily returned useful results.
        
           | krackers wrote:
           | Google doesn't return a lot of stuff that is on the web, that
           | is found by Yandex and Bing. It is unwilling to serve up
           | long-tail results from its index, probably because they're so
           | scared of accidentally serving up "misinformation" and they
           | heavily penalize non-https sites.
           | 
           | And yet for some reason they're all too eager to serve up
           | sites scraping stackoverflow.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | Bhilai wrote:
       | Sorry to break it to you folks but if you hated your data being
       | with Google, you are in for a surprise on how atrociously bad
       | Microsoft is at privacy and security. Multiple close friends who
       | have worked at Microsoft tell me that search history data - who
       | is searching what, is basically sitting in systems with ACLs so
       | bad that 20-30K employees have access through transitive
       | membership of groups. To access a customer's data you just need
       | to know token which is logged everywhere and is apparently very
       | easy to generate. I have heard horror stories from them about
       | privacy incidents which never went public.
       | 
       | From what I know about Google, they are serious about least
       | privilege type of stuff internally and employees dont get
       | arbitrary unbound access to systems or data.
        
         | revskill wrote:
         | It's not much about Microsoft. At least it improved human life
         | in serious ways (Typescript, VSCode,...). What did Google bring
         | to my life ? Nothing except for spam stuffs from Ad, Email,...
         | 
         | You're responsible for your data, not Google, not Microsoft.
        
           | kareemsabri wrote:
           | I can't imagine thinking _typescript_ improved human life
           | more than Google Search
        
             | eclipxe wrote:
             | Peak HN.
        
           | rewgs wrote:
           | What an absurd statement. I don't have especially strong
           | feelings for Google in any direction, but I can't deny that,
           | even if Google had _only_ done search or Maps, that alone
           | would be a massive boon for society.
        
           | erklik wrote:
           | Uh... Maps? Open, Permissive phone OS compared to the
           | alternative? Greatest entertainment/information system,
           | especially one that's democraticsed producing media?
           | 
           | In terms dev-related stuff, TensorFlow - literally something
           | that's made today's ML possible, Kubernetes, BigTable,
           | MapReduce, and yknow, that good old thing called Chrome..
           | 
           | I understand hating on Google. They're not that great, but
           | none of the FAANG are "great".. They all have some terrible
           | bits, some good bits. However, to say that Google has not
           | provided anything except "spam stuffs" is very wrong.
           | 
           | Search alone has changed the entire way that humans consume
           | information. I would say that today's internet landscape, for
           | better or worse, would not exist without Google.
        
           | amartya916 wrote:
           | While it might be fashionable to hate on Google, the question
           | "What did Google bring to my life" seems really odd. I can't
           | believe I have to say this but search, and more importantly
           | good/fast search, is to Google's credit. Typescript and
           | VSCode all have, and will continue to have alternatives, but
           | for a long time, Google was (some may argue it still is) the
           | bleeding edge of search. Anyway, there might be a
           | generational thing at play here, if so, I meant no
           | condescension.
        
             | revskill wrote:
             | You're making assumptions. I listed facts.
        
               | thefurdrake wrote:
               | Yeah, I'm gonna need to see some citation on how
               | Typescript and VSCode improved life for humanity. Break
               | out some of them facts you're talking about.
        
               | revskill wrote:
               | I specify "my life", not other's life, and it's a fact.
               | Why bother then (i'm curious)?
        
               | canadianfella wrote:
               | [dead]
        
               | chris_wot wrote:
               | So you think that Google doesn't do fast search? OK.
        
         | mc32 wrote:
         | I wouldn't be extraordinarily surprised if this is the case,
         | but I do not expect it to be as lax as you suggest and given
         | how it's presented to us it reads like someone trying to get
         | people to not look at something. If you have things you can
         | present as evidence that would carry water for your argument,
         | otherwise it's random inflammatory claim on in the internet.
         | 
         | And I agree, Google does take security more seriously than most
         | places.
        
       | kikokikokiko wrote:
       | The quality of Google search has decreased so much over the last
       | few years that I had to resort to using Yandex, a company that
       | has a budget that is orders of magnitude smaller that the Big G
       | and is under the control of a dictatorship. Google search has two
       | huge problems: SEO and censorship. Search for anything related to
       | products/torrents/streams/politics on Google and your results
       | will SUCK, due to one of the two reasons stated above.
       | 
       | The recent Yandex hack/leak has the cynic in me connecting the
       | dots and, seeing how Google search seems to be facing REAL
       | threats to it's dominance since it's creation... maybe some guys
       | with the deepest pockets in the world are starting to enter WAR
       | mode.
       | 
       | Destroying Yandex advantages on the SEO battlefield by way of
       | divulging their parameters to the world would be the Franz
       | Ferdinand assassination moment of the Great Search War.
        
       | marcopicentini wrote:
       | It's been a while since they stopped innovating.
       | 
       | Although Google, Maps, Youtube are of daily use they are
       | monetized exclusively by advertising which is annoying and hated
       | by many. It has been many years since Google has launched an
       | innovative new product.
       | 
       | I don't think ChatGPT will gain daily traction after this hype.
       | Anyway we could say that MSFT and AMZN have demostrated more
       | power to innovate with different business models (not only adv)
       | and products.
       | 
       | The GOOG stock has a PE (Price/earning) of 23, while Coca cola
       | 26. So the stock market expect higher growth from CocaCola than
       | Google. Quite surprising.
       | 
       | - GOOGLE PE (23):
       | https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOGL/alphabet/pe-...
       | 
       | - COCA COLA PE (26):
       | https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/KO/cocacola/pe-rat...
        
         | josu wrote:
         | >It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative
         | new product.
         | 
         | Stadia launched in 2019.
        
           | silisili wrote:
           | Stadia wasn't really that innovative, how many times has
           | cloud/streaming gaming been done before? I can think of at
           | least 3.
           | 
           | Also, it's already dead.
        
             | Sebguer wrote:
             | Yeah, OnLive did it back in 2003!
        
             | mertd wrote:
             | Which three? Did they actually work with reasonable input
             | latency?
        
               | silisili wrote:
               | I thought of OnLive, Shadow, and Geforce Now.
               | 
               | The only one of those I'd used was Geforce Now, and found
               | it very similar to Stadia wrt latency. Stadia had a much
               | nicer interface, though.
        
               | snuxoll wrote:
               | PlayStation Now already existed for years as well.
        
               | rchiang wrote:
               | Which they got through their acquisition of Gaikai
               | (considered a competitor of OnLive).
        
             | i_love_cookies wrote:
             | [dead]
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | I suppose successful new product? It's already closed.
        
           | kec wrote:
           | OnLive was 2009, PS Now was 2014, and Geforce Now launched in
           | 2015.
           | 
           | Stadia might have been well executed from a technical
           | standpoint but AAA game streaming wasn't exactly a new and
           | innovative idea in 2019.
        
           | joshruby16 wrote:
           | And it's dead.
        
         | system16 wrote:
         | Ads aside, the UI of Youtube and Maps is atrocious. There is so
         | much room for improvement here, but it will never happen from
         | Google. It's just not in their DNA. Unfortunately, they have
         | such a huge moat here I doubt we'll see anything better for a
         | long time.
        
           | bitL wrote:
           | They used to have pretty good UI for maps until some PM
           | needed to make their mark... Given they count individual
           | pixels and +/-1 deltas in colors I don't think they are ever
           | going to get any UI correctly. The initial simple UI with
           | just a single search input box that was highly praised by
           | minimalists was just an accident.
        
         | hoppyhoppy2 wrote:
         | Note that YouTube was acquired by Google in 2006; it's not a
         | product that was launched by Google.
        
         | awad wrote:
         | I think YouTube, which has a paid and ad-free version along
         | with its Live TV offering, somehow manages to still be a
         | sleeper hit within the larger Google portfolio and doesn't get
         | talked about enough.
        
           | adam_arthur wrote:
           | Agreed that a lot of Google's bets don't get enough
           | press/credit re investment potential.
           | 
           | At the same time, a lot of these platforms ran effectively
           | unopposed for many years, and now competition in advertising
           | is spreading quite rapidly
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | likeabbas wrote:
           | What happened to the Waymo hype? If Waymo manages to break
           | through and become a sufficient AI taxi, then car ownership
           | becomes optional for a majority of Americans (unlike today).
        
             | scarmig wrote:
             | Waymo has always been just a year or two from breaking
             | through.
             | 
             | Google's gotten through the first 95% of the work, but the
             | remaining 95% is gonna take awhile.
        
         | xyzzyz wrote:
         | They didn't exactly stop innovating: ChatGPT itself is using
         | tremendous amounts of innovation that was done and published by
         | Google. What they stopped is beating their competition to
         | launching compelling products based on the innovation they do.
        
           | peyton wrote:
           | Innovation is the practical implementation of new inventions
           | to deliver value. Google invented but does not seem to have
           | innovated.
        
         | lyu07282 wrote:
         | They are kind of forced to keep up or die now, not a good place
         | to be in. It feels like everyone always just assumed they must
         | have super advanced AI behind closed doors. Perhaps that was a
         | wrong assumption because they never actually seem to *do*
         | anything with it, but we will probably know that for sure very
         | soon.
        
         | somethoughts wrote:
         | Some have postulated that this might be Google's Blackberry
         | moment. On the flip side I wonder if its actually more like its
         | Dropbox moment.
         | 
         | The press loves a David and Goliath story; the young disruptor
         | versus the stodgy disrupted.[1] At that time, Dropbox was
         | David, coming out of nowhere in a hurry and had a product that
         | seemingly should be so obvious for Google to launch but hadn't
         | - making Google seem antiquated and slow.
         | 
         | Fast forward a couple of years (aka a decade) and Dropbox is
         | still going ok but Google Drive is by far more ubiquitous.
         | 
         | I guess only time will tell.
         | 
         | [1] Dropbox Versus The World
         | https://www.fastcompany.com/3042436/dropbox-versus-the-world
        
           | mejutoco wrote:
           | Last time I tried to sync my computer to gdrive I waited 30
           | days before giving up on gdrive. Dropbox took less than 2
           | days, and stayed responsive.
        
             | somethoughts wrote:
             | Good point - I think the much more typical flow for Google
             | Drive is cloud first for most documents and only uploading
             | occasional offline document upload.
             | 
             | Which is perhaps why Google didn't really focus on creating
             | a Dropbox like product until it was forced to because the
             | more long term profitable for Google was a solution/vision
             | based around a cloud first experience.
        
         | jibe wrote:
         | _Google, Maps, Youtube are of daily use they are monetized
         | exclusively by advertising._
         | 
         | I don't know how much. Money it makes, but there is paid API
         | access to maps.
        
         | adam_arthur wrote:
         | If search gets usurped, or even a marginal but meaningful
         | reduction in usage due to competition from AIs, then its not
         | surprising at all that Google's near term prospects could be
         | worse than Coke.
         | 
         | Even Google winning the AI wars leaves them worse off as the
         | operating profit potential of querying an AI vs their search
         | index has to be far lower.
         | 
         | As to usage, once you start to integrate ChatGPT into your
         | workflows it can meaningfully benefit vs traditional search.
         | Ive been able to find information on specific programming
         | language concepts, with generated examples, far faster than
         | searching.
         | 
         | I can ask it about GameDev concepts and ask for bulleted lists
         | or higher/lower level of detail in the answers. Information is
         | presented in a much easier to consume manner
         | 
         | That being said, most stocks that are considered defensive are
         | quite overvalued on a fundamental basis. I would consider a PE
         | of 26 for Coke quite undesirable, though there's much worse
        
           | scarmig wrote:
           | If Google ends up winning in the AI war, search and ads will
           | be significantly cannibalized, but it will have tremendous
           | opportunities outside of search, many of them in areas that
           | don't even exist yet.
           | 
           | In some ways, it might even be good. It's suffering from a
           | kind of advertising resource curse nowadays, and being forced
           | and able to diversify its economy would be best in the long
           | term.
        
             | adam_arthur wrote:
             | I'm not sure, it seems many companies have comparable
             | technology at this point, and Google is not known for being
             | great at packaging tech into products.
             | 
             | They had an enormous moat and edge in search, but not
             | seeing it for this next wave of AI. Barrier to entry seems
             | far lower
        
       | valley_guy_12 wrote:
       | The article starts, "Nestled in the hills of Mountain View",
       | which is worrisome, because as anyone with even a passing
       | familiarity with Silicon Valley geography knows, Mountain View is
       | mostly flat. And Google's Mountain View offices are located on
       | reclaimed baylands, which are especially flat.
       | 
       | I wonder if the article authors were thinking of Xerox PARC's
       | offices in Palo Alto's hills? Or the road named "Sand Hill Road"
       | that used to have some venture capitalist offices? Other than
       | those offices I can't think of any significant hill-based offices
       | in Silicon Valley.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | alexfromapex wrote:
       | It's honestly shocking that it's had such a long run. An increase
       | in high quality ways to sift through information will be a net
       | benefit for society.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | acqbu wrote:
       | https://archive.is/0ULyU
        
       | swayvil wrote:
       | I actually prefer Bing these days. (And I don't even run Windows)
       | 
       | Google search results are just screwy. Probably all that money is
       | interfering with the algorithm.
        
       | josefresco wrote:
       | Let us think about the defaults in our life:
       | 
       | Windows: Most use Chrome (Google default), the rest use Edge
       | (Bing default).
       | 
       | MacOS: Safari (Google default) and Chrome (Google default)
       | 
       | Android: Chrome (Google default)
       | 
       | iOS: Safari (Google default)
       | 
       | So it looks like the only vulnerability here would be iOS and
       | then possibly PC/MacOS if enough users switch their browser.
        
         | bloblaw wrote:
         | All good points. Windows still very much dominates desktops /
         | laptops sold (especially large corp environments)...so the
         | default installed Edge browser + Bing is a significant share of
         | users.
         | 
         | And with Edge being "basically chrome", and supporting Chrome
         | plugins, the switching cost from Chrome -> Edge is quite small.
         | 
         | But for mobile, Android + iOS dominate...so that all goes to
         | Google.
         | 
         | I think this could mean that Bing + ChatGPT has a really
         | opportunity to beat Google in Search...it's gonna be hard, but
         | I've never even considered them more than a distant 2nd option
         | until now.
        
         | lyu07282 wrote:
         | you should also consider that Google is/was the best search
         | engine around so it makes sense as a default, sure they pay to
         | be the default and most people never change defaults. But if
         | you are making a phone you might just really actually care
         | about people having a good experience with your phone.
         | 
         | (and its not like Microsoft couldn't pay them either anyway)
        
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