[HN Gopher] Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
Author : Michelangelo11
Score : 78 points
Date : 2023-03-06 21:35 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
| marcusverus wrote:
| https://archive.is/OdlIr
| aseerdbnarng wrote:
| While the Chinese threat to Taiwan is not something to be
| dismissed completely, the article doesn't mention just how
| incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting
| their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their
| farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to
| feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be
| devastating so I really struggle to see a convincing case for the
| CCP risking national suicide and its own existence over Taiwan
| ninethirty wrote:
| If China does invade, then it seems likely that North Korea would
| also invade SK, forcing the US to fight on at least 2-fronts, or
| 3 depending on what Russia is doing. If I was rich I'd move to
| Buenos Aires, the Paris of South America, and wait this thing
| out.
| it_citizen wrote:
| I am curious what the dominant opinion is in China regarding what
| the population of Taiwan wants.
|
| That the majority of Taiwanese want to become Chinese?
|
| That it doesn't matter what the Taiwan population wants because
| China has the right to claim it?
| bena wrote:
| The dominant opinion of the people of China or of the
| government of China?
|
| I would say that the majority of the people of China are much
| like the majority of the people of any land, they don't
| directly care about the issue. Someone on the other side of the
| country in Karamay probably doesn't even think about Taiwan for
| most of their days.
|
| However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an
| island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the
| losing side of a Civil War. That island is part of China.
|
| The people of Taiwan have different opinions. Three major ones
| last I looked. There's the opinion of the natives who think
| Taiwan should be its own country, independent of any other
| country's influence. Control of the area has alternated between
| China and Japan. With China getting control back in 1945 after
| WWII.
|
| Then there's the people who believe that the ROC should be
| reinstated on the mainland.
|
| And finally, some people who think they should just become
| members of the PRC and get all over with.
| NicoJuicy wrote:
| The dominant population ( Han) in China is not the majority.
|
| It's > 100 million people putting a leash on the rest.
| yrdmb wrote:
| If there was ever a doubt that the economist was propaganda...
|
| > Taiwan is a democracy, so its future lies in its people's
| hands.
|
| Ukraine was a democracy and the UK, EU and etc ousted their
| democratically elected president. Same goes for bolivia,
| venezuela, iran, russia, etc. The confederacy was a democracy
| also. Does the economist believe the confederacy's future should
| have lied in the southerners' hands?
|
| The democracies around the world are not being threatened by
| china. They are mostly threatened, attacked and undermined by the
| EU, NATO and the US.
|
| > But that makes it vulnerable to authoritarian exploitation.
|
| Says the propaganda outlet trying to influence and exploit
| taiwanese people.
|
| How about letting the chinese people in mainland china and taiwan
| decide the matter for themselves. Oh wait, they already did. Why
| are the entire western propaganda system so intent on starting a
| war between china and taiwan? If the economist is so keen on
| "freedom", maybe they should pray for the liberation of japan,
| korea, philippines and much of the pacific islands from
| occupation by non-asian and non-pacific nations.
| gruez wrote:
| What exactly are you argue here? That because Taiwan is a
| democracy, newspapers can't write articles about what they
| should do? That Taiwan's people doesn't want to prepare for
| conflict?
| stale2002 wrote:
| > How about letting the chinese people in mainland china and
| taiwan decide the matter for themselves.
|
| Taiwan currently has decided for themselves that they are happy
| to accept military weapons from the US, to defend themselves in
| the case of any military action against them from China.
|
| If that is Taiwan's decision, they should be supported and
| allowed to make it.
| gman83 wrote:
| Yanukovych was removed from office by Ukraine's parliament:
| https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/192030.html
| yogthos wrote:
| The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and
| Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the
| position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for
| having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam
| Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the
| US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And
| here's what US State Department says on their official page [3]:
| The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent
| across decades and administrations. The United States has
| a longstanding one China policy**, which is guided by the Taiwan
| Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques,
| and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes
| to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan
| independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to
| be resolved by peaceful means.
|
| [1] https://thediplomat.com/2014/08/no-taiwans-status-is-not-
| unc...
|
| [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Declaration
|
| [3] https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
| unethical_ban wrote:
| What is your point?
| yogthos wrote:
| What part of my comment is unclear to you?
| jmclnx wrote:
| All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong.
|
| If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be
| headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to
| even entertain that thought.
|
| This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say
| in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.
| pphysch wrote:
| What happened in Hong Kong? I thought the violent riots were
| long gone.
| gumby wrote:
| The CCP abandoned their promises of a democratic system and
| controlled the legislature, then more recently cracked down
| on speech, protest, and anything different from mainland
| practice.
|
| HK had had no democracy under the British, but unclassified
| documents have since shown that that was at the demand of the
| Chinese government who threatened to invade if HK was allowed
| to vote.
| bena wrote:
| When Hong Kong was ceded back to China, they were promised a
| certain level of autonomy for a certain amount of years.
| After a few years, China realized they didn't have to keep
| their word and have been rapidly taking more direct control
| of the area than initially promised.
| epolanski wrote:
| Hong Kong was leased to Britain till 1997. Very different case.
|
| As for Taiwan, if they declared independence it will be an act
| of war.
|
| Don't forget that US protects Taiwan on the basis it does not
| declare itself a sovereign country.
|
| Also, don't forget this is the official map of the Republic of
| China (Taiwan):
|
| https://i.redd.it/jbyegko5mkc21.jpg
| dwohnitmok wrote:
| The Taiwanese concept of "unification" is not what you're
| thinking of.
|
| The Taiwanese faction supporting unification (usually the KMT)
| does not envision a world where Taiwan is/becomes a province of
| the PRC, they envision a world where the ROC governs all
| current PRC provinces, that is where they are in the seat of
| power in Beijing. I.e. this is something going in the opposite
| direction.
|
| The opposing faction rejects these ambitions and wants Taiwan
| to go its own way.
|
| EDIT: Since it's not necessarily military intervention.
| ozmodiar wrote:
| I've never heard this take, even while in Taiwan. They aren't
| deluded, they know they aren't retaking the mainland. The
| reason they don't declare themselves a country is because
| China won't support it and they're worried it would trigger
| an invasion. China prefers Taiwan be a rebellious province
| rather than an independent country because it strengthens
| China's claim to the island. The KMT used to be feeling out a
| HK like integration with China but I think that's even more
| dead than it used to be.
| adastra22 wrote:
| That was Taiwanese politics in the 90's. It doesn't reflect
| current party policy.
| dwohnitmok wrote:
| As far as I'm aware this is still the official party line
| of the KMT.
|
| It's just that now the DPP (their opposition) is in power.
| Aperocky wrote:
| > I would announce it is now a independent Country.
|
| I am disappointed to see HN devolve into armchair general
| territory. In this specific case, the constitution ruling over
| Taiwan is the Constitution of Republic of China adopted in 1946
| in Nanjing, before the PRC was a thing.
|
| In general most of Taiwan does not believe it needs to do
| anything to "proclaim" their independence, only a tiny minority
| want to change the constitution (not just an amendment, the
| name of the constitution itself), which would be rather
| difficult on almost all levels..
| yogthos wrote:
| Perhaps China should start funding a secession movement in
| Texas and proclaim it an independent country.
| edrxty wrote:
| If any state is being propagandized into secession it's
| Florida right now.
|
| They, however, find themselves in a race with mother nature
| to see who will remove them from the continental US first.
| yogthos wrote:
| The point here is that this is the equivalent of what US is
| doing, and something US would never tolerate itself. Just
| imagine for a second if China set up equivalent of NED and
| USAID, started funding political campaigns in Texas or
| Florida, and so on. This is what US is currently doing.
|
| US is blatantly interfering in Chinese internal politics
| and violating Chinese sovereignty while acting as if US has
| some god given right to meddle in other countries. It's
| absolutely surreal.
| dirtyid wrote:
| >Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification
|
| TW sunflower movement killed peaceful unifcation long before HK
| drama. Generation rift inevitable. Reality going forward is
| Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they
| want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that
| will never recover.
| kevin_thibedeau wrote:
| Hong Kong was seized by a colonial interloper. Why would China
| take orders from someone who took their land?
| wk_end wrote:
| It wasn't about "taking orders", and it had nothing to do
| with the British. The CCP broke promises they'd made to the
| people of Hong Kong.
| kevin_thibedeau wrote:
| Promises made to appease the British as a condition for the
| handover.
| simplotek wrote:
| > Promises made to appease the British as a condition for
| the handover.
|
| Care to explain what point you believe you are making?
| pshirshov wrote:
| Maybe because they've signed an agreement?
| simplotek wrote:
| > Hong Kong was seized by a colonial interloper. Why would
| China take orders from someone who took their land?
|
| The British Empire precedes and was multiple times longer
| than PRC's rule of mainland China. If you're wanting to play
| the legitimacy game, by your own measuring stick the UK still
| has more legitimacy over the rule of HK than the PRC.
| itake wrote:
| > All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong.
|
| Maybe I am diving too much into the weeds here, but my
| understanding with HK is when the UK left and setup autonomous
| region with China in 1984, China/UK agree to leave the gov
| unchanged for 50 years after 1997 [0]. This interim government
| that was setup is controlled by CCP members.
|
| My understanding is the Taiwan gov has always been completely
| separate from HK's.
|
| [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-
| British_Joint_Declaration
| anonkogudhyfhhf wrote:
| Taiwan govt ruled China and lost to the Communists in the
| civil war. Both countries see Taiwan as part of a greater
| China
| foobarian wrote:
| It's a governmental net-split!
| mulmen wrote:
| Taiwan has no relationship to HK.
|
| My understanding as an outsider:
|
| Taiwan's is governed by the Republic of China (ROC), which
| regained control of Taiwan in 1945 after the Japanese pulled
| out. ROC was overthrown my Mao's Chinese Communist Party
| (CCP) during the Chinese Civil War and lost control of the
| Chinese mainland allowing the CCP to form the People's
| Republic of China (PRC). The ROC retained control of Taiwan.
| Taiwan has always been independent from the PRC and CCP.
|
| This completely ignores the actual native Taiwanese people
| who may or may not consider themselves Chinese. That is a
| topic I can't even begin to comment on.
|
| The takeaway from HK in the context of Taiwan is that the
| People's Republic of China did not hold up their end of the
| bargain with the UK in HK so there is no reason to trust them
| in any agreement of "reunification" in Taiwan if the terms
| are anything other than complete submission to PRC rule.
| simplotek wrote:
| > (...) the People's Republic of China did not hold up
| their end of the bargain with the UK in HK so there is no
| reason to trust them in any agreement of "reunification" in
| Taiwan if the terms are anything other than complete
| submission to PRC rule.
|
| This. PRC's talk of "reunification" reads like a trojan
| horse played with a long hand which was what happened in
| HK.
| Animats wrote:
| If there is a war, it will not be a short, victorious one. It
| will mean the destruction of cities in both Taiwan and mainland
| China.
|
| Russia has the advantage with Ukraine that there are no major
| Russian population or industrial centers in range of Ukraine.
| That's not true of China and Taiwan.
| questime wrote:
| "Voice module online. Audio functionality test initialized.
| Designation: Liberty Prime. Mission: the liberation of Taiwan.
| Primary Targets: any and all Red Chinese invaders. Emergency
| Communist Acquisition Directive: immediate self destruct. Better
| dead, than Red."
| steponlego wrote:
| It may be time to recognize that the one China policy which the
| US has supported has essentially doomed Taiwan. Sure we had some
| laughs and a lot of people made many billions of dollars off the
| backs of Chinese slaves, but there is no resisting the PRC's
| power and might - power and might that the United States, or more
| accurately a clique of business people and government
| functionaries here, have nurtured.
| mupuff1234 wrote:
| Probably a completely idiotic suggestion, but why can't the US
| secretly provide Taiwan with a few nukes if things really heat
| up?
| steponlego wrote:
| China would provide us with a few if we did that. Actually I
| believe the nukes are coming soon but thankfully will be
| limited to Europe and the UK.
| cm2187 wrote:
| What would be idiotic is to do that secretly. The whole point
| of nukes is that the enemy (and its public opinion) knows you
| have them and intend to use them if necessary.
| mupuff1234 wrote:
| Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war is
| imminent.
|
| If war is still preventable showing the nukes will just
| escalate things.
| RajT88 wrote:
| We periodically park Aircraft carriers there to de-escalate
| PRC activity.
|
| I am sure we have provided them some weapons. Not sure
| conventional or nuclear.
| mulmen wrote:
| We also sell (give?) them a lot of weapons. The Taiwanese
| air force is largely comprised of US airframes.
| krisoft wrote:
| > Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war
| is imminent.
|
| Ok, they reveal them. What is next? Nukes are not magic.
| They are just weapons. What do you think would happen once
| they are "revealed"?
|
| What delivery mechanism are you proposing? Should they be
| aimed counter-force or counter-value? (Meaning are they
| trying to shoot the chinese nuclear launchers or are they
| lobbing them into chinese cities?) How are you protecting
| the nukes in Taiwan?
| mupuff1234 wrote:
| You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back
| down.
|
| If they do, problem solved. If they don't, it probably
| didn't hurt.
| stale2002 wrote:
| Well, the biggest reason is that Taiwan already has domestic
| nuclear refinement capabilities and likely could make a nuke
| themselves in a couples months if they needed to.
|
| They don't need to do that quite yet though, as despite the
| media panic, an invasion of Taiwan is years, is not decades
| away from being attempted.
|
| China is a real threat, but it's more over the long term, than
| any immediate concerns.
| mjfl wrote:
| most of the (mainland) Chinese students I talk to tell me
| that they believe an invasion will happen 'sooner than
| later'.
| pphysch wrote:
| That worked out fantastic in 1962.
| krisoft wrote:
| To quote Dr. Strangelove: "Of course, the whole point of a
| Doomsday Machine is lost, if you _keep_ it a _secret_!"
|
| What do you think would be the point of Taiwan having secret
| nukes? What would they do with them?
|
| Or for that matter non-secret nukes?
| dirtyid wrote:
| Because historically nukes haven't deterred PRC who fought /
| skirmished / confronted with every nuclear state, USSR
| (border), USA (Korea), UK (HK threats), India (skirmishes),
| France (proxy in Vietnam), a few of those even when PRC wasn't
| a nuclear state it self. All over sovereignty / security
| interests much less important than TW. It's actually stupid how
| willing PRC is not deterred by nukes. PRC will treat TW
| slinging US sanctioned nukes same as US nuclear use.
| cm2187 wrote:
| What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large
| amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very
| vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in
| Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?
| pphysch wrote:
| The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington
| started installing ICBM silos there. In which case they would
| just knock out that infrastructure with long-range strikes.
| cm2187 wrote:
| Taiwan is only 200km away from mainland china. You don't need
| ICBM.
| amelius wrote:
| They are more difficult to intercept, though.
| missedthecue wrote:
| A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports
| 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels.
|
| Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer
| ties with China. Put under stress, Taiwan may be more inclined
| to reunify than most western spectators would like to assume.
| cm2187 wrote:
| Historically, public opinions tend to unite against
| adversity. If the aim is to gain the public opinions it would
| be counterproductive. I think the support for Russia in the
| Ukrainian public opinion is pretty much gone now.
| throw1234651234 wrote:
| Systems firing missiles are also vulnerable to missiles. That's
| not a sarcastic response, with maybe the exception of very
| short-range stuff - Javelin, Konkurs, etc. Those would be
| vulnerable to thermal smoke counter-measures too.
| anonkogudhyfhhf wrote:
| Honestly Taiwan should go nuclear. It might be there only
| solution
| asah wrote:
| Assuming they haven't secretly done this somehow, I assume
| the only reason is that Western powers have forbade it (i.e.
| made non-proliferation a requirement of their support).
| richardw wrote:
| * * *
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