[HN Gopher] Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage
        
       Author : _Microft
       Score  : 253 points
       Date   : 2023-05-19 08:56 UTC (14 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.science.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.science.org)
        
       | seventytwo wrote:
       | If weather patterns shift, the infrastructure built to store
       | water will have to shift as well.
       | 
       | Earth is a closed system, so we should expect to see water
       | storage decline in some areas and flooding increase in some
       | areas.
       | 
       | It's all climate change stuff.
        
         | eimrine wrote:
         | > Earth is a closed system, so we should expect to see water
         | storage decline in some areas and flooding increase in some
         | areas.
         | 
         | Of course, Earth is a closed system, but I am not sure it is
         | _that_ closed.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | smeej wrote:
           | I don't mean this to sound snarky. I'm genuinely curious
           | where you think the water will go, if not to other places on
           | earth.
        
             | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
             | It's easy to overlook the effects of transpiration, which
             | is a result of photosynthesis, which is impacted by
             | biodiversity loss. It short circuits water's path back to
             | the ocean and puts it back into the air above land where it
             | can precipitate into lakes a second time.
             | 
             | Without it, snowmelt-fed rivers dry out earlier.
             | 
             | As more ice melts there might be more liquid water
             | available, but the ecosystems that would process that water
             | into vapor are struggling. So you end up with a situation
             | where the only source of water vapor in the air is the
             | oceans.
             | 
             | As temperatures increase that'll again be a net increase in
             | ocean-driven evaporation, but it'll be less evenly
             | distributed than evaporation+transpiration was.
             | 
             | So the concern is that the only available water will be too
             | salty to drink, or too destructive to capture.
        
             | SkyPuncher wrote:
             | The earth as a whole is roughly a closed system, but
             | "usable water" is not.
             | 
             | Most resource problems are not about the quantity of some
             | thing changing as a percentage of earth's matter. Most
             | resources are about density and composition.
             | 
             | If all of the (non-ice) freshwater on earth was suddenly
             | dumped into the ocean, we'd have the same amount of overall
             | water - but little to no drinkable water.
             | 
             | Likewise, we're not really creating new carbon by burning
             | fossil fuels. We're moving and re-distributing it. Compared
             | to being deep underground, the form we create by burning
             | captures much more heat, causing many problems.
        
             | eimrine wrote:
             | > where you think the water will go, if not to other places
             | on earth
             | 
             | I afraid that a lot of fresh water is going to become an
             | ocean water. Flooding theory creates the impression of
             | transferring fresh water from one place to another where it
             | will remain just as fresh. It is incredibly hard to create
             | a fresh water from salty one.
        
               | helge9210 wrote:
               | > It is incredibly hard to create a fresh water from
               | salty one.
               | 
               | Fresh water is created from the salty water by
               | evaporation all the time.
        
               | fpesce wrote:
               | Indeed, and it's interesting to note that this natural
               | desalination process also incorporates long-term storage
               | mechanisms. Historically, vast quantities of freshwater
               | have been stored in the form of snow packs and glaciers.
               | However, in our changing climate, this storage is not
               | occurring at the same scale as it used to. This could
               | potentially exacerbate future water scarcity issues,
               | making man-made desalination techniques even more
               | crucial. As challenging as creating freshwater from
               | saltwater may be, it's a puzzle we need to solve with
               | urgency.
        
               | flavius29663 wrote:
               | on the other hand, global warming will pump much more
               | water in the atmosphere, and we will have more
               | precipitation. In fact, global warming would not be a
               | problem at all if what I said above was not true. CO2
               | alone could only raise the temperature by 1C no matter
               | how much we would put in the air (by year 2100). The
               | water vapor creates a positive feedback loop that warms
               | it far beyond what CO2 can do alone.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | But that's not actually helpful. Occasional massive rains
               | don't refill aquifers very well. There needs to be a
               | buffer to allow water to slowly make it's way into the
               | system in a manageable way. Currently that is mountain
               | snow melting over the warm season.
        
               | mynameisvlad wrote:
               | I mean, sure, but never in enough volumes to be actually
               | usable by us. It's not like we can capture every single
               | evaporated water droplet before it cools to form fresh
               | water.
               | 
               | So while technically it happens all the time, practically
               | it's as if it isn't happening at all when it comes to the
               | concerns talked about here, specifically the quantity of
               | available fresh water declining.
        
               | NotYourLawyer wrote:
               | This is where essentially all freshwater comes from.
        
               | mynameisvlad wrote:
               | That's great and all but how does that help with the
               | issue of that freshwater being depleted? _Which is the
               | topic at hand._
        
               | NotYourLawyer wrote:
               | I was responding to the "never in enough volumes to be
               | actually usable by us" comment. Which is just completely
               | wrong.
        
               | mynameisvlad wrote:
               | It's far from "completely wrong". Sure technically you
               | are correct in that the rain _sometimes might_ land in a
               | place that is usable by people, but practically speaking
               | it 's nowhere near predictable or scalable enough to
               | actually rely on, which is, once again, what is really
               | being discussed here.
               | 
               | As I said in another comment, talking about farmers using
               | rainwater for their crops:
               | 
               | > Rain is not predictable at the scale of a crop season.
               | Rain is not scalable, it's extremely localized.
               | 
               | > Rain happens, and when it does your crops get watered,
               | but you can't in any way shape or form rely on that.
               | 
               | So, congrats on being pedantic enough to miss the forest
               | for the trees, I guess.
        
               | NotYourLawyer wrote:
               | >say something that's obviously false
               | 
               | >someone points it out
               | 
               | >"you're a pedant!"
        
               | spenczar5 wrote:
               | I think you are quite wrong about that. The evaporated
               | ocean water becomes rain. Evaporated ocean water is the
               | source of over 80% of all rain on earth.
        
               | mynameisvlad wrote:
               | And most of that rain is going to go into the ocean
               | again. Or be distributed in a large area. Neither of
               | which can really be captured in any sort of predictable
               | and scalable manner.
               | 
               | You know, unless we build a massive "roof" of devices to
               | capture all that rain. Literally covering the entire
               | planet. At that point yeah it would dev a reasonable
               | thing to bring up in the context of fresh water reserves
               | falling.
               | 
               | So I very much stand by the point that while, sure, it
               | happens all the time, that does nothing to actually help
               | with the topic at hand.
        
               | 1234letshaveatw wrote:
               | The rain can be captured by farms.
        
               | mynameisvlad wrote:
               | > in any sort of predictable and scalable manner.
               | 
               | How?
               | 
               | Rain is not predictable at the scale of a crop season.
               | Rain is not scalable, it's extremely localized.
               | 
               | Rain happens, and when it does your crops get watered,
               | but you can't in any way shape or form rely on that.
        
               | NineStarPoint wrote:
               | About 80% of that rain happens back over the ocean, and
               | then about 25% of the rain that happens over land
               | actually gets captured as ground water. Even that isn't
               | the main point though, the issue is we're currently using
               | water faster than rain replenishes it in many places. At
               | worst as I understand it, in some places they've
               | collapsed their aquifers by over-pulling from them, and
               | that means less of the rainfall in those areas will be
               | recoverable in the future. At some point we have to enter
               | a mode where we only pull water in a way that is
               | sustainable or we'll suddenly find that we do indeed need
               | desalinization to keep up with our use.
        
             | vermilingua wrote:
             | Higher global average temperatures means higher global
             | average specific humidity. As the air warms it can hold
             | more water vapour, which means less condensation. I don't
             | know _how much_ difference this makes, but I expect it's
             | not insignificant.
        
               | ericd wrote:
               | It also means a higher rate of evaporation from the
               | oceans.
        
               | vermilingua wrote:
               | True, but oceans only evaporate from the surface while
               | the air retains moisture by volume. There is
               | _considerably_ more low, warm air than there is ocean
               | surface.
        
             | XorNot wrote:
             | Into the ocean.
             | 
             | The ocean covers the majority of the Earth's surface. The
             | ocean is full of salt.
             | 
             | Water which rains out over the oceans is unusable as
             | drinking or irrigation water without expensive processing
             | (desalination).
             | 
             | If historic rainfall patterns change, there is absolutely
             | no requirement that the rain land anywhere _useful_ for our
             | existing infrastructure or human habitation.
             | 
             | Yes, the water won't disappear, but if the effect is
             | rainfall hits the ocean, or say, flood-prone regions even
             | harder then it normally does, it's still going to be coming
             | down somewhere not useful to us.
             | 
             | The problem is not that we _can 't_ solve these problems,
             | it's that is is _staggeringly expensive_ to do so.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Not staggeringly expensive, about 38 cents per day per
               | person, apparently:
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desalination#Costs
               | 
               | Although that doesn't include irrigation..
               | 
               | EDIT: can even be economical for irrigation in some
               | circumstances: https://www.fluencecorp.com/desalination-
               | and-agriculture-les...
        
               | PeterisP wrote:
               | Something like 600 million people live below the poverty
               | line, which with current inflation is at $2.15 per day;
               | so for them a 38 cent per day rate means diverting almost
               | 20% of their income just on water. For comparison, that's
               | a much larger share than what USA residents spend on food
               | (~13% of their income).
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | The figures assume a US citizen level of water
               | consumption, someone on $2 a day would use much less than
               | this.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Kind of leaving out the main point there. People don't
               | use a lot of water. Industry and Farming do. We depend on
               | both of those for...pretty much our entire society.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | People use water directly and indirectly. And water is
               | "used" and "used" - it's not as simple as measuring a
               | pipe, you need to know where it goes.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Water-intensive industrial processes can move to where
               | the water is. Farming is more of a challenge but some
               | crops need more water than others; there's a lot of scope
               | for substitution.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | Yeah maybe someday we can stop growing all our produce in
               | the damn desert just because the weather was slightly
               | more profitable.
        
               | phpisthebest wrote:
               | >>it's that is is staggeringly expensive to do so.
               | 
               | Necessity is the mother of all invention, and with
               | Necessity also comes scale, and with scale comes less
               | cost...
               | 
               | Desalination has been expensive because it is not
               | necessary, the second it becomes necessary I bet you will
               | see the costs drop..
               | 
               | If nestle had to use Sea water to fill their bottles I
               | bet they would have a cheap way to do it right quick
        
               | nathan_compton wrote:
               | I think many of us working in software can be
               | overconfident about how easy it is to scale things,
               | probably because of the peculiar progress in the
               | improvement of integrated circuits and the commensurate
               | increased availability of raw compute for not that much
               | more energy. But many processes (including
               | desalinization, as far as I understand it) are energy
               | bound. It is really hard to make exponential progress
               | when a process is bound by how much energy you can muster
               | up to put into it. That is why rockets haven't had an
               | exponential increase in the amount of weight they can get
               | into orbit in the last 100 years. With gravity you must
               | pay the piper.
               | 
               | I doubt scaling desalinization is as hard as hurling
               | stuff into space, but it may not be easy to scale either.
               | There are plenty of places on earth which are very dry,
               | adjacent to salt water, and extremely rich and yet no
               | great desalinization technologies have come from them.
        
               | MandieD wrote:
               | _I think many of us working in software can be
               | overconfident about how easy it is to scale things,
               | probably because of the peculiar progress in the
               | improvement of integrated circuits and the commensurate
               | increased availability of raw compute for not that much
               | more energy._
               | 
               | You may have neatly (and politely) pinned down why we
               | computer folks are so arrogant about how easy problems
               | outside our direct field would be to solve, if only we
               | were the ones "allowed" to solve them.
        
               | excalibur wrote:
               | > If nestle had to use Sea water to fill their bottles I
               | bet they would have a cheap way to do it right quick
               | 
               | Make it so.
        
               | dghlsakjg wrote:
               | There's the rules of physics to consider.
               | 
               | There are more than a few places where desalination is
               | necessary, and we still haven't come up with a way to
               | make it cheap.
               | 
               | The current issue is that there is just no way that we
               | know of to reliably desalinate that isn't super energy
               | intensive, so it comes down to trading energy for water.
               | That's why desalination is expensive.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | > If nestle had to use Sea water to fill their bottles I
               | bet they would have a cheap way to do it right quick
               | 
               | Why? Nestle just passes the cost on to the consumer,
               | because where else are they gonna go?
        
             | xwdv wrote:
             | We lose atmosphere to space everyday.
        
               | seventytwo wrote:
               | I'm sorry my model didn't account for your 8th order
               | effects. You're technically correct.
        
               | chmod775 wrote:
               | And we also gain water from space through meteorites
               | every day.
        
               | neom wrote:
               | The mesosphere has very little water in it.
               | 
               | http://scienceline.ucsb.edu/getkey.php?key=2
               | 
               | https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-
               | sci...
        
         | gonzo41 wrote:
         | Earth isn't a closed system, we take in energy from the sun.
        
           | jakswa wrote:
           | Also we slowly lose upper atmosphere to the solar winds, when
           | the magnetic fields fail to deflect it enough.
        
           | _Microft wrote:
           | That's not a problem. Closed systems can do that. If they
           | additionally do not exchange energy with their environment
           | they are called _isolated systems_.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closed_system
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isolated_system
        
         | neom wrote:
         | https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-floods-pakist...
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Pakistan_floods
         | 
         | "in the recorded history [of the area] that we have since 1918,
         | we have never had this much rain."
        
       | paiute wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
         | lostmsu wrote:
         | Can somebody explain why is this downvoted? If 53% decline,
         | what do the other 47% do? How about total storage?
        
           | fahadkhan wrote:
           | Probably because it's ignoring the start of very next
           | sentence in an attempt at sarcastic wit.                 >
           | The net volume loss in natural lakes...
        
             | paiute wrote:
             | ... then they start talking about km^2 of lost surface
             | area. Which if you read the paper they cite, it says
             | "Between 1984 and 2015 permanent surface water has
             | disappeared from an area of almost 90,000 square
             | kilometres, roughly equivalent to that of Lake Superior,
             | though new permanent bodies of surface water covering
             | 184,000 square kilometres have formed elsewhere." On top of
             | that, shallow lakes fluctuate wildly in surface area. The
             | great Salt Lake for example. VS Lake Tahoe which can drop
             | 10 ft and the surface area loss is tiny.
        
               | dahart wrote:
               | Yes of course the relationship between volume and area
               | depends on the lake depth, are you suggesting the paper
               | implied anything else? The Great Salt Lake has dropped
               | rather dramatically in the last ten years, so much so
               | that it has already changed pretty much all recreation
               | and commercial activity on the lake - the primary boat
               | dock closed because the marina was completely dry and by
               | last year the shores had moved inward, by kilometers in
               | some cases. Unusual precipitation this year has brought
               | levels up a little, but this might only be a blip in the
               | downward trend. The known reasons include drought
               | conditions, unusually high temperatures, and greater
               | upstream use. The Great Salt Lake's recent history very
               | much backs up the claims of this paper, no?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | _Microft wrote:
           | I think this might be just because their comment is
           | borderline useless - it is so condensed that one can hardly
           | make any sense of it.
           | 
           | So what did they want to say? Is it "Science, it works?" like
           | in XKCD comic #54? Or are the quotes around science the
           | actually important thing, casting doubt on it? It's hard to
           | tell because they did not bother to spend a few seconds to
           | actually write it out.
           | 
           | Beside that there is more to papers than just their abstract.
           | If you are curious, you can check section "Global LWS trends
           | and drivers" for the answers to your questions.
        
             | paiute wrote:
             | The intention was to get people to read the main thesis
             | critically. That quote is sort of a tell about the quality
             | of this paper, and the more I dig into this paper the more
             | it confirms this is isn't good science.
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | Maybe if you had articulated your objections up front
               | instead of posturing, your subthread wouldn't now be
               | sitting at the bottom of the page.
        
               | dahart wrote:
               | Your comments seem more skeptical than critical. Are you
               | saying you believe lakes aren't losing volume?
        
               | showdeadplease wrote:
               | [dead]
        
           | paiute wrote:
           | This, and why 1992-2020? How many of these large lakes are
           | distributed in say, Midwest America/Canada. What were the
           | precipitation levels in that region just a few years prior?
           | Why did they need to involve climate models when we have
           | observable data?
        
             | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
             | Given the significant use of satellite data, I imagine the
             | start point was chosen based on when some classes of data
             | became available from recently launched satellites. An
             | earlier time may not have sufficiently comparable data.
             | 
             | There's a map linked in the paper if you want to see where
             | the lakes are: https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/science.
             | abo2812/asset/ab...
        
             | bjornlouser wrote:
             | They used a technique for water segmentation described in
             | an earlier paper [1]. The validation dataset for that
             | method goes back to 1992...
             | 
             | "All applied images have 30-m spatial resolution and were
             | acquired during October 1, 1992 to October 31, 2018. The
             | period was set with regard to the availability of the
             | validation dataset"
             | 
             | [1] Yao, J. Wang, C. Wang, J.-F. Cretaux, Constructing
             | long-term high-frequency time series of global lake and
             | reservoir areas using Landsat imagery. Remote Sens.
             | Environ.232, 111210 (2019).
        
       | Mbioguy wrote:
       | History may not repeat but it does rhyme. Harappan civ thought to
       | have declined due to less water. Petra once thrived due to a
       | system of dams, cisterns, and water conduits, but never-repaired
       | damage after an earthquake and increasing aridity meant it less
       | and less supported urbanism and so declined. The Soviets
       | overexploited the Aral Sea which has yet to (and will likely
       | never) recover. It is now spoiling the surrounding region with
       | dust storms carrying with them pollutants from industry that
       | settled in the drying lakebed. Owens Lake in California once fed
       | LA, but when it dried up it too caused polluting dust storms.
       | Gov't has not learned from this history. The western US's water
       | rights are outdated to the point of creating utterly backwards
       | incentives. For example, Utah has use-it-or-lose-it water rights
       | and the lion's share of water in the Great Salt Lake's watershed
       | gets used to grow alfalfa. Alfalfa itself isn't necessarily a bad
       | choice if you're going to grow stuff in an arid region, the issue
       | is more how much of it is grown and in a wasteful way (little to
       | no drip irrigation and no incentive to start using it, instead
       | farmers are incentivized to flood areas during times of heavy
       | rainfall or risk losing water rights). However even city and
       | residential water use (a much smaller %) is still per capita
       | wasteful compared to nearby Vegas which has done a much better
       | job of becoming efficient in its water use. Utah got lucky this
       | year in its snowpack, potentially buying some time to change, but
       | is that gonna happen? No, they're praying for moisture and
       | thinking their prayers got answered. Any guesses how long it'll
       | be before the Great Salt Lake becomes the US/capitalism's Aral
       | Sea? 5 years, 10, 15? Any techies wanting to move out here might
       | think twice, homes without water and with seasonal arsenic-laden
       | dust clouds probably won't have much resale value.
        
       | juujian wrote:
       | Damn, and that is with all the glaciers melting, which fills
       | water reservoirs. Once they are completely gone, it is going to
       | get so much worse.
        
         | nathancahill wrote:
         | Dam indeed.
        
       | briantakita wrote:
       | Where did the water go? The air? The biosphere? Lost to space?
       | Underground oceans?
        
       | wombarly wrote:
       | Here in the Netherlands they decided to increase the water level
       | of our lakes by 5cm to handle the drought season this year. Since
       | the amount of snowfall in the Alps was lower than normal.
       | 
       | https://www.rijkswaterstaat.nl/nieuws/archief/2023/04/hoger-...
        
         | hbarka wrote:
         | Do you have any news how Swiss lakes are affected?
        
           | wombarly wrote:
           | No, I only really know this because it was in the local news
           | a while ago and though it was interesting / related to the
           | OP.
        
         | mywittyname wrote:
         | It must be nice to live in a country that manages their natural
         | resources with an eye towards long-term sustainability.
        
           | TremendousJudge wrote:
           | I live in a country with one of the richest water tables in
           | the world. Due to (a forecasted!) drought and lack of
           | planning we're literally running out of water to drink. It's
           | like Saudi Arabia running out of oil, absolutely shameful.
        
           | peteradio wrote:
           | Isn't Netherlands bound to flood as ocean levels rise?
        
             | hollander wrote:
             | Maybe next century, but not anywhere soon.
        
             | sangnoir wrote:
             | The Netherlands been claiming land from the sea for
             | centuries and some areas are already well below sea level -
             | I don't think they'll neglect their dykes any time soon.
        
               | Scarblac wrote:
               | But we're also a river delta, we will run into problems
               | long term because we'd have to pump entire rivers over
               | the dykes.
               | 
               | Also salification and other problems with only pumping
               | out all the time.
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | Since the 1400s; ref polder:
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polder and https://en.m.w
               | ikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_the_Neth...
        
               | avisser wrote:
               | The Afsluitdijk just got heightened and reinforced. As
               | someone who's biked across it, I'm psyched because now
               | you can bike on the North Sea side - previously, there
               | was only 1 bike path on the Zuiderzee side.
               | 
               | https://theafsluitdijk.com/projects/dike-
               | reinforcement/how/
        
           | 908B64B197 wrote:
           | It's a conscious choice the citizens made every day for the
           | last century, just like America chose freedom.
           | 
           | What's the other countries excuses?
        
             | avgcorrection wrote:
             | Freedom from what? Britain?
        
               | kyralis wrote:
               | Freedom from facts.
        
               | lovemenot wrote:
               | Freedom Fries
        
           | davidktr wrote:
           | If they wouldn't, the Netherlands would literally not exist.
           | Not only are large parts of the country below sea level,
           | there is also the constant threat of flooding via Maas
           | (Meuse) and Rhine. Raising levees is not enough, water
           | management in the Netherlands must always look at the whole
           | country.
        
           | throw_pm23 wrote:
           | With all due respect, the Netherlands is perhaps the furthest
           | a place can be from long-term sustainability. The place is a
           | mix of monoculture + concrete.
        
           | gymbeaux wrote:
           | It won't be nice when the country is invaded by another
           | country for its water reserves. See: the Middle East
        
       | pier25 wrote:
       | We're going to need a lot of desalination plants powered by clean
       | energy.
        
         | wahnfrieden wrote:
         | Like saying we need to recycle more to fix the landfill
         | problem. Recycling fixes nothing with over consumption.
        
         | linuxlizard wrote:
         | When water gets in short enough supply, we will burn coal,
         | garbage, tires, anything to power desalination plants.
        
           | tppiotrowski wrote:
           | Desalination cones should work in tropical climates.
           | 
           | [1] http://www.watercone.com/product.html
        
             | pier25 wrote:
             | This is brilliant.
             | 
             | The same designer made this Terracooler which is also a
             | fascinating idea.
             | 
             | http://www.terracooler.org/
        
             | timerol wrote:
             | Does this exist? The product page mentions that the planned
             | price is "below EUR 20", but the news page doesn't have
             | anything newer than 2007
        
           | RC_ITR wrote:
           | Or (at least in the US), we will simply stop doing things
           | like growing alfalfa in the desert to feed cows being raised
           | in Texas. Sure beef will be a little more expensive but...
           | 
           | You're actually right. We'll probably burn garbage and radio
           | hosts will call people against burning garbage effeminate
           | names.
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | Burning garbage may be one of the best things you can do
             | with garbage -
             | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/climate/sweden-garbage-
             | us...
             | 
             | As you can set it up to burn very hot and have all sorts of
             | scrubbers on the outcomes.
        
               | RC_ITR wrote:
               | Burning _anything_ is never the right answer in a world
               | of climate change.
               | 
               | We are scrambling to find ways to capture atmospheric
               | carbon and store it underground and burning garbage is
               | literally the opposite of that.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | If handling waste and burying it costs X carbon, and
               | burning it creates Y carbon, and Y is less than X, then
               | burning is better than burying.
               | 
               | You'd have to do the math, it's not manifestly obvious
               | that it's not the case (especially once you consider all
               | the transportation involved in sending waste around the
               | country and across the ocean).
        
               | RC_ITR wrote:
               | On first principles, there's no reason that the cost of
               | transporting trash to the incinerator is any less carbon
               | intensive than transporting trash to a landfill.
               | 
               |  _Maybe_ people prefer incinerators in their community
               | over landfills in their community (unclear), but if that
               | 's the case, that's a policy decision and not one that
               | seeks to minimize carbon emissions.
        
               | bombcar wrote:
               | Lots of recycling (has) been transported across the ocean
               | to China.
               | 
               | It's likely that landfill are the way to go in many
               | cases, but people don't like them.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | kzrdude wrote:
           | That's a damn good argument for making sure we don't go into
           | overpopulation.
        
         | time_to_smile wrote:
         | Problem is that _everything_ needs X powered by clean energy,
         | which means we need both _a lot_ more clean energy and, if we
         | want to slow /stop climate change, to massively reduce our use
         | of fossil fuels... which requires _a lot_ more clean energy.
         | 
         | We also, so far, globally have not shown any evidence of
         | replacing fossil fuels with green energy, only supplementing
         | them.
        
           | acidburnNSA wrote:
           | Direct carbon capture, electric vehicles, electric building
           | heat, electric industrial process heat, and desalination are
           | all massive new sectors that need to be powered that are
           | barely on the radar of the existing electric grid.
           | 
           | And we need more power to let emerging economies rise out of
           | poverty, where having electric pumps and washing are truely
           | life-changing from a quality of life perspective.
           | 
           | So we need about 5x more total energy while also shifting
           | from 80% fossil to 0% fossil.
           | 
           | This is why I advocate for nuclear while most people advocate
           | for wind and solar. We need advocates for all clean energy.
           | Nuclear can actually use its own direct low-carbon heat to
           | help with buildings (district heat) and industry, and that
           | heat can also help in desal in some cases, though RO is the
           | preference these days and doesn't really need that much heat
           | input.
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | Tidal power is a thing. Tidal power for ocean desalination
           | eliminates the need for transmission infrastructure.
           | Desalination has so many obvious upsides that I'm
           | increasingly suspicious of the people insisting it's too
           | difficult to contemplate, none of whom contribute anything of
           | value to the discussion.
        
         | Dennip wrote:
         | IIRC These can have thier own host of problems because the
         | 'brine' byproduct doesn't mix well back into the ocean and can
         | settle/pool and create marine dead zones. Although suppose that
         | will be less of a priority if people are thirsty.
        
           | otikik wrote:
           | That always looked like a no-problem to me. Can't the brine
           | be put in a pool and let evaporate instead? You get drinking
           | water from the desalination plant and salt.
        
           | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
           | The ocean is way too big for removing some drinking water
           | (which is going to end up back in the ocean anyway) to have a
           | material effect on the salt concentration.
           | 
           | The problem is strictly local: if the brine produced by the
           | plant is dumped in an area with low flow, it can hang around
           | and affect sea life.
           | 
           | If you use a big discharge pipe and put it a decent distance
           | offshore in a current where it can mix effectively, there's
           | very little effect.
           | 
           | This is not a reason to shoot down desalination plants as a
           | concept, it's a design constraint to take into account when
           | building them.
        
             | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
             | the hard part is what water of different salinity doesn't
             | mix the way you think it should
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | Instead of pumping the brine into a pool, pump it into a
           | ship. As the ship sails, it slowly releases the brine at a
           | rate much more tolerable. When the tanks are 50% empty, turn
           | around and come home. lather rinse repeat.
           | 
           | of course, a renewable powered ship
        
           | RajT88 wrote:
           | There are commercial salt harvesting operations which use
           | such brine. No need to flush it back in the ocean.
           | 
           | If you have ever flown into SFO you have seen the reddish
           | pools. (By the way the red color comes from Brine Shrimp,
           | which presumably there is also use for)
           | 
           | https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/salt-ponds-san-francisco
        
             | blacksmith_tb wrote:
             | Which is good, but may not potentially scale up - if we
             | were desalinating 5X, 10X as much seawater, it seems
             | unlikely we could make use of that much salt, and would
             | have to bury it or dispose of it some other way.
        
               | RajT88 wrote:
               | People are considering using salt as a building material
               | now:
               | 
               | https://www.archdaily.com/994769/could-salt-be-a-
               | material-of...
               | 
               | When you have a practically free resource which is waste
               | from a large scale industrial process, cottage industries
               | to make use of the free waste sometimes pop up. It's a
               | solvable problem.
        
               | Izikiel43 wrote:
               | Then your house melts with the rain
        
               | RajT88 wrote:
               | Article talks about that kinda. You have to read at least
               | halfway through it.
        
               | p1mrx wrote:
               | Look what you've done! I'm dissolving, dissolving! Ohh,
               | what a world.
        
           | wasm123 wrote:
           | We had the same problem with power plants dumping hot
           | untreated water back in the environment. This is why cooling
           | towers are synonymous with nuclear power plants. This is an
           | easy solution to fix, but like all engineering it costs
           | extra. For power plants it was fixed through legislation. You
           | literally have an entire oceans worth of water to
           | reconstitute the brine. This was more problematic of older
           | system using distillation.
        
           | gonzo41 wrote:
           | We pump brine inland to a large flat expendabe plain and
           | flood it to allow the water to evaporate off and the salt to
           | sette. 20-50 years later, pod racing on the salt flat.
        
             | Dennip wrote:
             | I think this causes its own host of issues as there are a
             | load of other nasties such as arsenic etc in seawater which
             | would build up there.
        
               | djbusby wrote:
               | Arsenic in Pod fuel too.
        
               | _puk wrote:
               | How does that work for e.g. small scale salt farming in
               | many European countries that flood areas with sea water,
               | then harvest the salt after the water has evaporated [0]?
               | 
               | Is it just a case of the scale making it safe?
               | 
               | 0: https://www.timeout.com/croatia/things-to-do/ston-
               | salt-works
        
               | aziaziazi wrote:
               | I think so, yes. One person salt consumption seems wayyy
               | less than the brime that would be created by desalination
               | of the freshwater he needs.
        
             | aziaziazi wrote:
             | The desalination plan provide water when the groundwater
             | reservoirs are too low to fulfill freshwater demand.
             | 
             | The brine slowly go down through geological layers. After 5
             | years it reaches groundwater reservoir.
             | 
             | 20-50 years later, the regions become famous for its fun
             | pod racing and for its numerous ghost cities around the old
             | plain.
        
           | piyh wrote:
           | Put them down stream of farm runoff so everything is already
           | dead
        
             | dghlsakjg wrote:
             | Farm runoff normally has the opposite effect, providing too
             | many nutrients causing things like algal blooms.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | So the brine and the farm runoff will cancel out and the
               | result will be just right for nature. Right? _Right?_
        
               | EvanAnderson wrote:
               | Always a good time for[0]:
               | 
               | Skinner: Well, I was wrong; the lizards are a godsend.
               | 
               | Lisa: But isn't that a bit short-sighted? What happens
               | when we're overrun by lizards?
               | 
               | Skinner: No problem. We simply release wave after wave of
               | Chinese needle snakes. They'll wipe out the lizards.
               | 
               | Lisa: But aren't the snakes even worse?
               | 
               | Skinner: Yes, but we're prepared for that. We've lined up
               | a fabulous type of gorilla that thrives on snake meat.
               | 
               | Lisa: But then we're stuck with gorillas!
               | 
               | Skinner: No, that's the beautiful part. When wintertime
               | rolls around, the gorillas simply freeze to death.
               | 
               | [0] https://youtube.com/watch?v=P9yruQM1ggc
        
           | swayvil wrote:
           | Build cities from stabilized salt. Bricks, grout, pourable
           | slabs.
        
         | mistrial9 wrote:
         | there is a second side to this systems-diagram, which is
         | roughly.. conservation, efficiency, waste-reduction
        
           | pier25 wrote:
           | Yes but when glaciers melt completely and water deposits are
           | empty we will struggle even with extremely efficient water
           | systems.
        
           | mattwest wrote:
           | spoken like a true idealist
        
       | jms703 wrote:
       | Almond farmers. Am I right?
       | 
       | /s
        
       | Slava_Propanei wrote:
       | [dead]
        
       | hsuduebc2 wrote:
       | It fascinates me how things have obvious consequences but human
       | race just ignore them till literally everything is burning. As it
       | is with water shortages, climate change or Hitler.
        
         | mrtesthah wrote:
         | A sizable majority (including in the US) recognize the danger
         | of global warming, but are politically blocked from taking
         | action by the actions of a small group of extremely wealthy
         | individuals and corporations working to maintain the status quo
         | to their benefit.
        
       | myshpa wrote:
       | The vital role of vegetation is often overlooked - we've
       | significantly reduced forest cover over the past centuries.
       | 
       | Global forest cover loss between 1990 and 2020 was estimated to
       | be around 178 million hectares, representing a reduction of
       | approximately 10% in the total global forest area.
       | 
       | To restore water resources we should prioritize aforestation.
       | 
       | https://ourworldindata.org/land-use#how-has-global-land-use-...
       | 
       | 1700 ... 1 billion ha for agriculture
       | 
       | 1800 ... 1.35 billion ha
       | 
       | 1900 ... 2.54 billion ha
       | 
       | 2016 ... 4.93 billion ha (=cca 50% of all habitable lands)
       | 
       | https://ourworldindata.org/land-use
       | 
       | Animal agriculture taking 75% of that.
       | 
       | https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets
       | 
       | "Beef is the leading driver of deforestation"
       | 
       | https://ourworldindata.org/drivers-of-deforestation
       | 
       | As Ernst Gotsch says: water is planted ('Agua se planta!')
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_G%C3%B6tsch
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotic_pump
       | 
       | - Evapotranspiration: Vegetation influences the water cycle by
       | releasing moisture into the atmosphere through transpiration,
       | affecting cloud formation and regional rainfall patterns.
       | 
       | - Surface runoff and infiltration: Vegetation intercepts
       | rainfall, slowing down surface runoff and promoting better water
       | infiltration into the soil, which helps mitigate drought
       | conditions.
       | 
       | - Shade and temperature regulation: Vegetation provides shade,
       | lowers surface temperatures, and reduces evaporation rates,
       | potentially alleviating drought intensity.
       | 
       | - Feedback loops: Healthy vegetation enhances soil moisture
       | levels, maintains humidity, and supports water resources, while
       | stressed or absent vegetation can worsen drought conditions.
       | 
       | - Forests and rainfall patterns: Forests contribute to local and
       | regional rainfall by releasing moisture through transpiration,
       | and their removal or degradation can disrupt precipitation,
       | potentially contributing to drought.
        
       | ooz16 wrote:
       | Genuine question here. What would be the expected change over the
       | same period? The abstract says 53% of lakes saw declines...does
       | that mean 47% saw no change or gains? If so, that seems pretty
       | close to net stable to me globally. Or frankly what we would
       | expect to see (some gains, some losses)
       | 
       | Also, this is stated later in the doc:
       | 
       | "Between 1984 and 2015, a loss of 90,000 km2 of permanent water
       | area was observed by satellites--an area equivalent to the
       | surface of Lake Superior, whereas 184,000 km2 of new water
       | bodies, primarily reservoirs, were formed elsewhere (14)"
       | 
       | My first impression was that this means there has been a growth
       | in total permanent water area from 1984-2015. Am I just reading
       | this wrong?
        
         | neves wrote:
         | I just think that if it was the case, Science Magazine would
         | have changed the headline.
        
         | explaininjs wrote:
         | The article also states "climate change and human activities
         | increasingly threaten lakes that store 87% of Earth's liquid
         | surface fresh water", but neglects to mention that only 0.3% of
         | freshwater is liquid surface water in the first place. All in
         | all a giant nothing burger, as with so many climate change
         | alarmist "science" nowadays.
         | 
         | https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/sci...
        
           | MattGaiser wrote:
           | > but neglects to mention that only 0.3% of freshwater is
           | liquid surface water in the first place.
           | 
           | But what percentage of the water we can actually use? The
           | Arctic and Antarctic are far away from most of us, and
           | groundwater is limited and probably spread out quite a bit.
           | Water vapour is hard to extract from the air.
           | 
           | You are trivializing it by saying it is just a tiny
           | percentage of freshwater, but it is actually where most of
           | our used water currently comes from.
        
             | explaininjs wrote:
             | > But what percentage of the water we can actually use?
             | 
             | What percentage of lake water could we use prior to literal
             | millennia of engineering effort was put into moving it
             | where we need?
             | 
             | > most of our used water currently comes from
             | 
             | This is technically true today, but barely. Nationwide
             | roughly twice as much water comes from surface as the
             | ground, but it varies dramatically by region. If you live
             | in NY, 90% of your water already comes from the ground.
             | It's certainly not the case that we're "locked in" to
             | lakes, rather we are very capable of adapting to local
             | conditions.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | > What percentage of lake water could we use prior to
               | literal millennia of engineering effort was put into
               | moving it where we need
               | 
               | All of it, people built settlements on lakes and rivers
               | for this very reason
               | 
               | > It's certainly not the case that we're "locked in" to
               | lakes, rather we are very capable of adapting to local
               | conditions.
               | 
               | No, we are locked in to rivers and lakes because thats
               | the only big source of renewable fresh water. The
               | underground aquifiers under midwest and under much of
               | middle east will be gone in 50 years and will never
               | return
               | 
               | You should not incorrect people here without basic facts
               | at your disposal
        
               | explaininjs wrote:
               | And yet they built aqueducts and wells too. Local surface
               | water has been insufficient for civilization for at least
               | 2000 years.
               | 
               | > The underground aquifiers under midwest and under much
               | of middle east will be gone in 50 years and will never
               | return
               | 
               | > You should not incorrect people here without basic
               | facts at your disposal
               | 
               | Nothing quite as HN as someone making bold alarmist
               | unsupported assertions about the future of climate for
               | all of time, then following it up with a sentence
               | demanding an appreciation for "basic facts".
        
           | wittenbunk wrote:
           | Because obviously the amount of surface water is completely
           | independent of the amount of subsurface water in aquifers. /s
        
             | explaininjs wrote:
             | What do you think the "obvious" correlation coefficient is
             | between the two? Or even its sign? I suppose it'd be far
             | too much to ask for the R value too.
             | 
             | Science is supposed to answer these questions, instead this
             | article carefully withholds information to make molehills
             | into mountains.
        
         | throwaway290 wrote:
         | it sounds like new water bodies are man-made reservoirs, not
         | permanent, e.g. the thing goes out into the ocean when the dam
         | breaks.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | abracadaniel wrote:
         | That sounds reasonable. The water would have to go somewhere,
         | but that alone could be catastrophic regionally. Cities are
         | built around water sources, so having them move on timescales
         | of human lifespans is worth worrying about.
        
           | goatlover wrote:
           | True, but we're rather capable of building long pipelines to
           | ship liquids across large distances.
        
             | MattGaiser wrote:
             | It would require a lot of expansion for the required
             | volume.
             | 
             | A barrel of oil has about 159 litres in it. The Keystone
             | Pipeline would have transported 1.1 million barrels if it
             | were fully expanded. 174,900,000 million litres per day.
             | The City of Phoenix by itself uses about 1 billion litres
             | per day.
        
               | adhesive_wombat wrote:
               | I was going to say "but that probably double-counts
               | recycled water" and then I looked it up and recycled
               | water is only 8% of Phoenix's water usage, and it's 10%
               | nationally in the US.
        
               | _3u10 wrote:
               | Water isn't toxic though, aqueducts aren't built to
               | anywhere near the standards of oil pipelines.
        
         | LesZedCB wrote:
         | > Globally, natural lake volume declined at a net rate of
         | -26.38 +- 1.59 Gt year
         | 
         | the phrase you read said "Over half (53 +- 2%) of the large
         | lakes experienced _significant_ water losses " (emphasis mine)
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | Is 26.38 Gt a lot?
           | 
           | There's 91k cubic kilometers of fresh water in lakes
           | according to: https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-
           | science-school/sci...
           | 
           | And a cubic kilometer is basically a Gt, right? .98 Gt?
           | 
           | So 26 / 91,000 = ~0.02% ?
           | 
           | Is that a lot? If it's really 0.02% - wouldn't you expect
           | _something_ to be random noise? How do we know it 's not
           | random noise?
        
             | time_to_smile wrote:
             | > How do we know it's not random noise?
             | 
             | A great place to start answering this question is _the
             | article itself_. And if that doesn 't satisfy you, then the
             | article also links to citations for all the claims it
             | makes.
             | 
             | It's great to not just blindly accept the claims of even
             | experts in an area, but this reads more like someone who is
             | working to not believe what they are being told.
        
               | lovemenot wrote:
               | I didn't read the parent's comment as you did. To me it
               | looked like someone just trying to get a handle on the
               | relative amounts and variability. They provided some
               | relevant data and appeared open-minded.
               | 
               | Your response to that added little to the discussion. You
               | might have selected the parts of the article that
               | answered those questions, but instead opted to shut down
               | further discussion on a valid question. Which, may or may
               | not be addressed in the sources.
        
               | PM_me_your_math wrote:
               | So we should have 100% faith in what we're being told in
               | the article? If the author was trying to deceive then
               | they wouldn't cite data that provided contradiction.
               | Seems more like a religious approach than a logical one.
               | There are papers, that were well cited, claiming there
               | would be no sea ice by 2010, which never occurred.
        
       | makz wrote:
       | Dumb question: where did the water go?
        
         | swayvil wrote:
         | Global warming. Warmer air holds more water.
        
           | djfobbz wrote:
           | Midwest still holding winter temps in May...where's the
           | warming part? Please refrain from posting "fact checker"
           | links as we all know nothing comes free and they have their
           | own vested interest in fact-checking.
        
             | ROTMetro wrote:
             | So you point to a change in your local normal climate as
             | showing there isn't... climate change? Just trying to
             | clarify what you are trying to say here?
        
               | djfobbz wrote:
               | Climate has always changed...it's a feature of the earth,
               | not a bug...you being born is part of the climate change.
               | When you decompose, that will also be part of the climate
               | change. The magnitude of your so called calculations is
               | minuscule compared to the life of earth and merely
               | speculation just like stocks on Wall Street. Don't try to
               | control something you did not invent. You're welcome!
        
         | xen2xen1 wrote:
         | We're changing the weather with greenhouse gases and whatnot,
         | and we regularly pump it out to go to our homes, or even use it
         | to make electricity with dams.
        
           | flavius29663 wrote:
           | Global warming means generally more water in the air and more
           | rain, not less. Think of Jurassic Park, not Mad Max
        
             | ajmurmann wrote:
             | Yes, more total rain. A steady steam from the mountains is
             | a much better source of water though to keep lakes, rivers
             | and our water supply going. The rain isn't evenly
             | distributed through both space and time. We might get a
             | drought for years and then torrential rainfalls. We are
             | already seeing this. It's happened in California and
             | Germany. Both places I'm most tide to. So maybe it's
             | sampling bias. At my parent's in Germany, most fir trees
             | are dead from the multi-year drought and then in June 2021
             | half the village was destroyed by a flood.
        
               | edu wrote:
               | All over Europe, for sure.
               | https://apnews.com/article/italy-floods-
               | drought-59db3225a5d4...
        
         | dghlsakjg wrote:
         | I think it's pretty likely that the main cause is it's being
         | diverted for agricultural use.
         | 
         | Things like diversions into cities will also contribute, but
         | generally gets dwarfed by agricultural use.
         | 
         | The Colorado river flow for example is 80% agricultural. 20%
         | for all other uses, including the bare trickle that actually
         | makes it to the ocean
        
         | aSockPuppeteer wrote:
         | Depends how close farmers are to water sources. They run high
         | speed pumps at night or camouflage them in streams to get by
         | water restrictions.
         | 
         | There's the famous California telephone pole picture too.
         | https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/themarinpost/emimg/1249/S...
        
           | peteradio wrote:
           | I don't understand that telephone pole picture, the ground
           | did not move around the telephone pole surely. I don't
           | understand the graphics either. 1ft/year generally, but
           | slower than that in the most extreme?
        
             | croes wrote:
             | They pump ground water that keads to sinking land, 1 foot
             | per year.
             | 
             | The pole is from 1977 or later but shows the historical
             | land level of 1955 and 1925
        
             | voakbasda wrote:
             | When you remove the water from the ground, the drained soil
             | compacts. The topmost sign on the pole pole shows where the
             | ground level was 50 years earlier, caused by excessive
             | taking of groundwater.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | ajmurmann wrote:
         | It's about sweet water. If it "goes away" it typically ends up
         | in the ocean.
         | 
         | Previously it was in lakes, groundwater it glaciers. Glaciers
         | which ultimately kept rivers flowing all year around even when
         | not much snow falls in a given winter. Once all the glaciers
         | are melted, the rivers can dry up completely. The glacier water
         | has already made it to the ocean and doesn't need to travel
         | there anymore via river. With groundwater depleted, we cannot
         | use that anymore to substitute and some sources of creeks will
         | dry up.
        
           | briantakita wrote:
           | Are there any studies on waterflow to/from underground
           | oceans? It's difficult to understand how comprehensive a
           | claim is without knowing the entire system.
           | 
           | > The subducting slabs also carry deep-sea sediments
           | piggyback into the Earth's interior. These sediments can hold
           | large quantities of water and CO2. But until now it was
           | unclear just how much enters the transition zone in the form
           | of more stable, hydrous minerals and carbonates - and it was
           | therefore also unclear whether large quantities of water
           | really are stored there.
           | 
           | > The answer has now been provided by an international study.
           | The research team analyzed a diamond from Botswana, Africa.
           | It originated at a depth of 660 kilometers, directly at the
           | interface between the transition zone and the lower mantle,
           | where the dominant mineral is ringwoodite. Diamonds from this
           | location are very rare, even among the extremely rare
           | diamonds of super-deep origin, which account for just 1% of
           | all diamonds. The studies found that the stone had a high
           | water content due to the presence of many ringwoodite
           | inclusions. The study team was also able to establish the
           | chemical composition of the stone.
           | 
           | https://scitechdaily.com/an-underground-ocean-scientists-
           | dis...
        
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