[HN Gopher] Metaculus ___________________________________________________________________ Metaculus Author : kqr Score : 58 points Date : 2023-07-15 19:56 UTC (3 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.metaculus.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.metaculus.com) | log101 wrote: | It reminds me of Isaac Asimov's Foundation series | [deleted] | pyentropy wrote: | You can gain reputation by simply forecasting the same outcome as | the (publicly available) average probability of everybody - so a | user that forgets to forecast on questions is gonna be worse off | than a bot who just follows the crowd. | | However it gets more interesting when you try to beat the crowd - | because you have to take risk and disagree with the masses. You | will either end up with negative reputation or a very large one. | You can learn more about scoring functions and how to measure the | accuracy of everyone's forecasts: | https://www.metaculus.com/help/scoring/ | | Personally I have opened one question, and it involves predicting | the net sales of Apple Vision Pro until 2025: | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17407/apple-vision-pro-n... | ruuda wrote: | > because you have to take risk and disagree with the masses. | You will either end up with negative reputation or a very large | one. | | A prediction market is a zero-sum game, and you should only | participate if you expect you can beat the market, which you | shouldn't expect to be able to on average. But this is not true | for Metaculus, which is a prediction aggregator and can create | more virtual internet points when there are more participants. | So even if you don't expect to do better than the community on | average, you can still earn positive points on average. You | have to be really confidently wrong to get a bad negative score | on Metaculus. | 7thaccount wrote: | There's a paper somewhere on these kinds of markets for | forecasting events. I hope someone can link to it. | | I think Congress shut down funding for the research as they were | worried it would become self fulfilling. Like if there is a $50M | bet on some world leader being assassinated (or something | horrible like that), that could put pressure that would lead to | it occurring when it wouldn't otherwise. | efnx wrote: | That's a dead pool by another name. | hartator wrote: | I like their graphs. I wonder what they are using (not on my | macbook). ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2023-07-15 23:00 UTC)