[HN Gopher] Update: Lumber Prices Down 11% YoY ___________________________________________________________________ Update: Lumber Prices Down 11% YoY Author : alphabettsy Score : 65 points Date : 2023-10-03 19:55 UTC (3 hours ago) (HTM) web link (www.calculatedriskblog.com) (TXT) w3m dump (www.calculatedriskblog.com) | matternous wrote: | Lumber prices seen all over the place when I search for various | species of hardwood. Is there a standard online retailer to | reference? | angry_moose wrote: | Not really because its so regionally dependent - prices can | vary dramatically within even 100 miles. I just picked up a | bunch of of black walnut for $12.80/bdft, but I could get it | for around $8 if I drove a couple hours south. | oblio wrote: | Are these changes reflected in any downstream price changes? | throw0101a wrote: | Can't wait for another _Odd Lots_ podcast supply chain episode on | lumber. Previously (make it a trilogy): | | * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/why-the-price-of-lumber-has-s... | | * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/stinson-dean-on-the-lumber-cr... | bradly wrote: | In you want to learn about the lumber industry and how the | supply chain works I recommend this podcast: | https://www.lumberupdate.com/ | gigel82 wrote: | Things like plywood (for furniture) didn't come down in price yet | to pre-pandemic levels; hoping they catch up soon. | | You used to be able to get 3/4 maple 4x8 for ~$50, now it's $85 | at Home Depot and over $100 from the local lumberyard. | dugmartin wrote: | There was a weird blip of time during the pandemic where | cabinet grade plywood was cheaper than CDX sheathing at my | local Home Depot. If I was building a house then it would have | been cool to sheath it in oak veneer plywood. | post_break wrote: | This means my homeowners insurance will surely go down right? | Right...? Of course not. | pcurve wrote: | From the same blog: vehicle sales are up 15% YoY | | https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/vehicles-sales-in... | | Not necessarily a sign of health, but playing catcup with | hisotrical trend. | chubs wrote: | I'm a little concerned that the downturn in that graph coincides | with changing from measuring one financial instrument to another. | But i dont know enough about those instruments to know if that's | an issue or not :) | pnpnp wrote: | The price of lumber also was astronomical during Covid. I think | it's somewhat logical to expect a return to a more "normal" | price as economics bounce back from a somewhat unprecedented | couple years of crazy economics. | wlesieutre wrote: | For the unfamiliar, a "board foot" is a unit of lumber volume | representing a square foot of board with 1 inch thickness. | | So an 8' long board 12" wide and 1" thick is 8 board feet. Or | half as wide and twice as thick (6" x 2") in the same length is | also 8 board feet. You get the idea. | em3rgent0rdr wrote: | metric system is so much easier: m3 | jpitz wrote: | Metric makes the math easier, but it is much easier for me to | relate to 40 board-feet of lumber than to 0.0944 cubic- | meters. | hartator wrote: | I don't think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not | Minecraft. | [deleted] | Jedd wrote: | A foot is a (variable) measure of length. | | A board foot is a measure of volume - with an implicit | third dimension. | | So you could just use the SI unit for volume. | | A board foot ~= 2.4 litres. | | This seems a bit silly though, as timber is not fungible in | the way you'd expect a _volume of something_ to be. | | As noted by sibling comments, you very much can buy timber | in cubic metres - a convenience for costing / transport - | but you're not going to buy timber without knowing | dimensions of the individual lengths. | tinco wrote: | If you're purchasing gross lumber here in The Netherlands | it is definitely priced per m3. For example here: | https://inlands-hout.nl/houtsoorten-en-prijslijst/ | | Just like with board feet it doesn't say anything about the | actual dimensions. Also, I don't think it's much better as | a unit than board feet either, both have very unclear | relationship to the actual amounts you need. You'll always | need to do a pretty complex calculation to figure out how | much you'd need to buy. The pricing is mostly useful as a | comparison to look at relative or day to day pricing | differences. | singleshot_ wrote: | And for what it's worth, the board foot cost of a 2x4 and | the board foot cost of a 2x12 are wildly different. | m463 wrote: | I think you would need old growth for true 1m3 | mtmail wrote: | Germany uses Euro per Festmeter as measure, a Festmeter is | 1m^3. Trees are round of course but Festmeter is on the | invoices and pricing tables. | mrcode007 wrote: | Unless you're making infinitely thin two dimensional planes | made of wood you always get a cubic volume of wood. Always. | No exceptions. What do you think W x L x H stand for? | candiddevmike wrote: | If you buy logs you probably can | singleshot_ wrote: | When you say one inch wide, do you mean one of the twelve | things in a foot, or one of the two things in the width of a | 2x4? | yojo wrote: | I believe you're referring to "nominal" vs "actual" size. For | anyone who doesn't know, a 2x4 is actually ~1.5"x3.5" | | Dimensional lumber is the original shrinkflator | angry_moose wrote: | To elaborate a little more: | | Board thicknesses are measured in the "quarter system" - 4/4 | (pronounced "4 quarter", that is 4 quarters of an inch) is a 1" | thick rough-rough sawn board; 8/4 (8 quarter) is a 2" thick | rough board. As this is rough sawn (super rough and unsightly | finish), you usually lose at least 1/8" while finishing the | board, so a 4/4 rough board gives you something around 3/4" | finished product. | | This leads to 5/4 being another fairly common dimension, as you | can get a 1" finished board out of it. 6/4 and 12/4 are | somewhat common as well. | | It might seem like an "ugly dimension" compared to something | like m^3, but its really built around speed. Watching someone | skilled price out an enormous stack of mismatched lumber | (width, thickness, and length) in seconds with a lumber rule is | always a fascinating process to watch | (https://www.popularwoodworking.com/techniques/the-lumber- | rul...). | | Usually the $/board foot increases slightly at higher | dimensions as thicker lumber is harder to produce. I got some | 4/4 black walnut for $12.80/bdft last week; 8/4 was closer to | $16. | | Edit: This is also why 2x4s are actually 1.5"x3.5" - | historically they were 2x4 rough sawn lumber, but .5" is lost | in both dimension when producing finished boards you purchase | in the store. | somethoughts wrote: | Always thought it'd be cool if there was some economic simulation | game (simcity, city skylines, etc.) that was tied to real life | commodity markets. | m463 wrote: | Would that make the game less fun? | | or would the economy be the fun part of the game, automating | and driving down prices? | | I think games like factorio, the fun comes from automating and | being less of a mental burden. | tpmx wrote: | The chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that | prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic | levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me. | reducesuffering wrote: | I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities | prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years | ago | | https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber | greggsy wrote: | Cripes what is going on with orange juice.. there's some | seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has | just kept climbing. | ramesh31 wrote: | Climate change comes at you quick. We're well past the | point of hypotheticals, and headed down the road to | catastrophe. | mcculley wrote: | Here in Florida, citrus greening has devastated the groves. | eth0up wrote: | That... and grubby land grabs, cavalier/deranged | development (Lennar), and ignorant newcomers who think | making a subtropical keystone ecosystem conform to their | hell of previous residence is justified by exorbitant | checks and brutal disregard. | reducesuffering wrote: | Not sure. That was the lone outlier I saw too. Quick | internet glance seems to implicate crop disease and Florida | hurricanes dropping supplies. | alexfoo wrote: | tinlc | somethoughts wrote: | there is no lumber cartel? | listenallyall wrote: | Supposedly, wholesale chicken wings are lower than pre-pandemic | prices. | | https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/chicken-wing-price... | | I've yet to find a restaurant, however, where menu prices for | wings aren't at least 20% higher than 2019 or so -- often much | higher. Similarly, I have a hard time believing that lower lumber | prices will reduce new construction costs. | curiousllama wrote: | Retail prices are generally pretty sticky - if the wholesale | price persists, they'll come down, but it'll take time. | quadrifoliate wrote: | I hope they come down -- I have reduced my restaurant spend | considerably since restaurant (even chain) prices went up by | 30-50% in my area compared to pre-Covid. | | Maybe I'm too price-conscious, but I'd expect demand to go | down over time as the rising interest rates affect daily | life. | curiousllama wrote: | Yea for sure. This is the recession & deflation folks have | been asking for. | [deleted] | dessimus wrote: | Not a lot of people are willing to work in the food service | industry in general, nor at 2019 wages specifically, also | rents, and real estate skyrocketed. Food costs are generally | only about 1/3 of menu revenue, with wages and overhead being | the other ~2/3. Profits are generally very thin in restaurants. | makestuff wrote: | Yeah I agree, it will make prices stay flat for a few years, | but I highly doubt there will be a massive decrease in | construction cost unless we see another 2008 style economic | crisis. Although, labor shortages in the construction industry | might make still allow prices to stay high. | superwalker wrote: | Labor prices for skilled labor have increased so much that | even when you do the "how much is my time worth" calculation | _as an overpaid engineer_ , DIY has become the only way to | go. It's nuts, but a fun learning experience. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2023-10-03 23:00 UTC)