[HN Gopher] China is becoming a data black hole, says short sell... ___________________________________________________________________ China is becoming a data black hole, says short seller Aandahl Author : hker Score : 42 points Date : 2023-10-23 05:01 UTC (3 hours ago) (HTM) web link (theedgemalaysia.com) (TXT) w3m dump (theedgemalaysia.com) | jemmyw wrote: | China's leadership seem fairly intent recently on destroying the | areas where China's economy was picking up. Tech companies, | software developers, and now anything innovative that would | benefit from external investment to get off the ground. | grey-area wrote: | They're trying to cover up a massive crash, in real estate | especially. They're also preparing for war over Taiwan amidst | tightening US sanctions. | | Long term for the country it is terrible strategy, | unfortunately short term for the dictator and his cronies it is | profitable. | kyleyeats wrote: | The China and the US are both doing this in some kind of | twisted PR standoff. The only way anything the US is doing | makes any sense is through this lens. | roenxi wrote: | If they are trying to cover up a crash, it'll be a typical | example of why centralised control fails so hard at | economics. A crash isn't like a storm or something where a | new force appears; it is a recognition that _past_ decisions | were not as effective as people at the time thought. Trying | to fight a crash just keeps people doing destructive work for | longer instead of moving on and finding some other activity. | grey-area wrote: | Yes I agree, but in a dictatorship the interests of the | country and the interests of those at the top are not | aligned. | | Another example of this recently - imprisoning your top | entrepreneurs is a great way to ensure that your tech | industry completely dies, but only over a long time frame | as nobody comes up to replace the current companies (they | all leave if they can). In the short term it offers great | opportunities to enrich the leadership at the expense of | all that wealth generated in previous decades, and at the | expense of course of the country's future wealth. | | So long term a disastrous decision for the country, short | term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover up | domestically is sufficiently thorough and there are other | events to distract the populace (e.g. expansion through | war). | graemep wrote: | > in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the | interests of those at the top are not aligned. | | I wish that was a problem only in dictatorships. | | > long term a disastrous decision for the country, short | term it pays out for the current leaders if their cover | up | | Dictators will remain in charge long term. To that extent | their interests are better aligned with those of the | country. I decision that will be bad in the medium term | can be quite good for the ruling party in a democracy if | they lose the next election and can persuade the | electorate to blame whoever is in charge at the time. | RandomLensman wrote: | No, not how dictatorships work. The usually work by | keeping the supporting 2nd layer below the dictor happy | and under control, which has nothing to do with country | as such. | | Coincidentally, things could align, but they often don't. | gwervc wrote: | > in a dictatorship the interests of the country and the | interests of those at the top are not aligned | | It isn't either in a democracy. | | In a way it's even more insidious in a democracy because | the corruption is hidden better by one or a few layers of | indirection. In the end however corruption and interests | of the powerful is king. | powerapple wrote: | there are people thinking government should leave economy | alone, there are people thinking central banks should use | financial tools to control inflation and other things. China | is not covering up, it is trying to control a crash. | grey-area wrote: | The lack of any reliable data specifically is a cover up, | that is what the article is about. | mytailorisrich wrote: | China does not need external (as in 'foreign') investment. They | have huge amounts of cash. | | The strategy seems more about decoupling and independence from | foreign interference and potential sanctions. Likewise, when | foreign investors leave it is also because they've seen what | was done to Russia and thus don't want to repeat that with | China, which would be massively more costly. | | Edit with data: | | In 2022 Chinese households accumulated $1tn in savings, just | over that year (this is something typical in China because of | lack of safety net and lack of investments avenues, hence also | why everyone wants to buy property to invest their cash): | https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/spotlights-b... | | China also has $3.2tn in foreign cash reserves: | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign-exchange_reserves_of_C... | | They also use that cash as a tool of foreign policy with loans | to foreign countries in excess of $240bn: | https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-spent-240-bln-bailing-... | throwaway2990 wrote: | Is this satire? | berserk1010 wrote: | They do? Probably should tell the average citizens in China | who are having trouble withdrawing cash out then | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9odXNPldCI. I think some | banks were kind enough to tell their customers to withdraw in | a few months. Other banks just zeroed out their customer's | bank account. | vbezhenar wrote: | Potential? China is under heavy sanctions right now. They | need to surrender or to fight. For now they chose the latter. | peoplefromibiza wrote: | FWIW between Blue Orca Capital LLC and China I would choose | China all the time. | | They are simply trying to short China to profit, like they did | before so many times. | | This is not even news: in "Regulation of platform market access | by the United States and China: Neo-mercantilism in digital | services" published in 2022 you can read | | _Since 2009, both countries have progressively restricted | access to each other 's domestic information services markets. | In both cases, the primary stated rationale involved national | security claims rather than trade policy concerns_ | | It's happening both ways. | paganel wrote: | > FWIW between Blue Orca Capital LLC and China I would choose | China all the time. | | At least losing big money will keep them away from writing | down lists of bad _goym_ people. | berserk1010 wrote: | Did China's youth jobless rate really hit 46.5%? | https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Did-China-s-youth-j... | | takes into account the Chinese youth's laying flat and full time | children movement. | sparrowInHand wrote: | They promised there children programming jobs and a golden | future. But the party wants them to work in factories, just | like dad did. They created the ilusion of upwards mobility in a | society with no upwards mobility and burden those youngsters at | the same time with a aging population. If you can not win, why | even play? | peoplefromibiza wrote: | most probably it's exaggerated, China youth unemployment rate | should be similar to that of my Country, Italy, which is at 22% | officially, a couple points down unofficially (off the books | jobs, people getting state benefits that should not get etc. | etc.) | jeo123 wrote: | That is a brilliant move from China. As these investment money | will get floodef back into western world e.g. USA and Germany | which will prompt huge inflations. Already USA and Europe no | longer has access to cheap Chinese manufacturing, cheap Russian | fuels and cheap clever labors (Chinese students), you can see | severe crippling of Western innovations in the last 18mths | (research paper outputs dropping, Tesla couldnt build Cybertruck, | no self drivings, university graduates output drops). This is all | in place to target 2025-2026 invasion. Guess Xi is learning from | Putin on preparations. | khuey wrote: | Yes when I think of Putin's recent invasion of Ukraine I | definitely think that it was well planned and prepared for. | rob74 wrote: | > _China's restrictions on overseas access to data are driving | investors away, according to short seller Blue Orca Capital LLC_ | | If (big if, I know) only short sellers are complaining, that's | probably a good thing... | berserk1010 wrote: | Not just. Probably why big funds are pulling out. | | Norway's 1.4 trillion pension fund is shutting its Shanghai | office https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/investing/china-norway- | fund-s... | | Ark invest with 9B is entirely out of China https://www.news- | journal.com/arena/thestreet/cathie-wood-pul... | paganel wrote: | In the case of Norway there's most probably some geo-politics | in play, too, as they're a NATO country. Looks bad to have | NATO money help develop an ideological enemy. | peoplefromibiza wrote: | > Norway's 1.4 trillion pension fund is shutting its Shanghai | office https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/investing/china-norway- | fund-s... | | from the article | | _it owned shares worth about $42 billion in some 850 Chinese | companies. Those investments will be managed in future from | its Asia hub in Singapore, it said._ | | _The decision to close its Shanghai office was driven by | "operational considerations" and doesn't affect the fund's | investments or its investment strategy in China, NBIM said in | a statement on Thursday._ | | > Ark invest with 9B is entirely out of China | https://www.news-journal.com/arena/thestreet/cathie-wood- | pul... | | _We recognize you are attempting to access this website from | a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) | including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection | Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at | this time._ | | I don't know you, but I don't trust someone who will only let | me read a piece of information in exchange for stealing my | personal data... | jarym wrote: | > I don't trust someone who will only let me read a piece | of information in exchange for stealing my personal data | | Maybe they don't want to install one of those super | annoying cookie consent dialogs. Might be nothing to do | with stealing your personal data. ___________________________________________________________________ (page generated 2023-10-23 09:00 UTC)