[HN Gopher] Mars has a layer of molten rock inside
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Mars has a layer of molten rock inside
        
       Author : isaacfrond
       Score  : 141 points
       Date   : 2023-10-26 12:57 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | jimnotgym wrote:
       | We need to go there so we can study it properly. What would the
       | Victorians, or Columbus, think of us if they saw how we gave up
       | after going to the moon a few times.
        
         | mcv wrote:
         | I think they would first want to know if there were any natives
         | worth enslaving there.
         | 
         | I kid. I agree we should go there. But not because of Columbus
         | specifically.
        
           | Jeff_Brown wrote:
           | It's actually an interesting comparison. If the Queen of
           | Spain circa 1500 had today's technology she wouldn't care
           | nearly as much about Mars as she did then about India (sic)
           | because extracting anything from Mars can't possibly be
           | profitable yet. She wasn't in it for the science; she was in
           | it for god, glory and gold, and not necessarily in that
           | order.
        
             | jimnotgym wrote:
             | On the other hand both Spanish capital and Columbus
             | personally took a huge risk. They knew less about what lay
             | ahead than we know about Mars. They new the rewards were
             | high, but the risks were enormous.
        
           | gosub100 wrote:
           | And in 600 years, modern society might consider _us_ slaves
           | for having to work under duress for the wealthy elite.
        
         | yieldcrv wrote:
         | "there must not have been any gold"
        
         | idlewords wrote:
         | More accurate is we can _either_ go there or study it properly.
         | A human mission to Mars would be entirely dedicated to keeping
         | the crew alive; only remote probes can do real exploration for
         | the foreseeable future.
        
           | nsxwolf wrote:
           | The robots we've sent thus far seem far more limited than
           | what humans could do with their own hands and standard tools
           | and lab equipment.
           | 
           | We wait decades to maybe get a tiny sample of a rock.
        
             | idlewords wrote:
             | This is a common thing that trips people up -- you can't
             | compare the capabilities of robots _on Mars_ with what
             | humans can do _on Earth_. You have to compare like with
             | like, and a human crew on Mars would essentially be living
             | in a Level 4 biocontainment facility and remotely operating
             | the same kind of robots we could send to the planet
             | autonomously. And their effective time available for work
             | would be worse even than ISS, where the entire station (6
             | people) does something like 35 hours /week of science.
             | 
             | Robotic Mars exploration has made huge progress on what is
             | a shoestring budget compared to boondoggles like Artemis or
             | ISS. Just look at the improvement between Sojourner and
             | Ingenuity and imagine what an adequately funded robotic
             | exploration program could look like.
        
               | jodrellblank wrote:
               | > " _worse even than ISS, where the entire station (6
               | people) does something like 35 hours /week of science._"
               | 
               | You may have seen China launching their youngest ever
               | crew to their space station this week, and I noticed the
               | quotes from the three crew members:
               | 
               | "I'm solely focused on the mission, on how to accomplish
               | the mission successfully. I have to get prepared every
               | minute, every second, and this was my aspiration when I
               | joined the Air Force, and that aspiration has never
               | changed," said Tang Hongbo, Commander.
               | 
               | "I feel that I am fully prepared physically, mentally and
               | technically. I am confident to complete this upcoming
               | flight mission. In fact, to be honest, I can't wait to
               | carry out the mission now." - Tang Shengjie, Operator.
               | 
               | "Talking about the roles and responsibilities, I will try
               | my best to complete the routine maintenance of the space
               | station" - Jiang Xinlin, Operator.
               | 
               | One of those sounds less exciting than the others.
               | 
               | [1] https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-10-25/China-unveils-
               | Shenzhou...
        
           | hutzlibu wrote:
           | Well humans can do many things, a robot cannot. But in
           | general yes, sending a swarm of robots to mars will deliver
           | way more data for way less money, than a human mission.
        
             | usrbinbash wrote:
             | > Well humans can do many things, a robot cannot.
             | 
             | True.
             | 
             | For example: suffocating, starving, dying of thirst,
             | getting sick, suffer psychologic breakdowns, having their
             | bodies deteriorate due to low gravity,...
             | 
             | Robots cannot do any of these things.
        
               | tcmart14 wrote:
               | We can definitely starve a robot, just don't give it a
               | way to recharge itself.
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | No but robots on the other hand have the disadvantage of
               | being dumb with no understanding of the situation. Also,
               | they can "die" of thirst for energy as well. Have some
               | unplanned thing gone wrong? Boom, all mission is lost.
               | Happened countless times. Human are flexible. Why do you
               | think, they sometimes need to go outside to fix something
               | on the ISS? Not automated yet.
               | 
               | With more advanced robots that might be possible, but
               | currently robots can only do, what you exactly told them
               | to do. Depending on the real parameters, that might be
               | enough, or not. And they certainly can get "sick" and
               | broken as well. Hardware as well as software.
        
           | jackcviers3 wrote:
           | I totally disagree. Ro optic probes are awesome, but their
           | range of activity is extremely limited. They can stay on
           | mission for years at a time in that limited area, but the
           | ground you can cover with several manned missions is
           | currently greater.
           | 
           | We've proven that we can keep humans alive indefinitely in
           | space with the International Space Station. Expanding that
           | practice beyond Earth's orbit can and will go a long way in
           | advancing our understanding of our solar neighborhood.
           | 
           | The initial human explorations of the planets will be more
           | limited than the rover projects. But I think we are getting
           | very close to being able to mount much more significant
           | investigations of our closest neighbors. We just need to
           | choose to go.
        
             | idlewords wrote:
             | The ISS is heavily dependent on regular resupply from
             | Earth, is teleoperated from Earth, and depends on large
             | Earth laboratories to analyze air and water samples. We can
             | keep humans alive "indefinitely" there in the same way we
             | could keep people alive indefinitely on the ocean floor;
             | it's an expensive stunt entirely reliant on support
             | operations from the surface that does nothing to advance
             | our ability to explore.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | The ISS is way more limited in what it can do because it
               | exists in a vacuum, which inherently limits the size it
               | can reasonably have, and there's zero gravity. The moon
               | has a bit more gravity, but zero atmosphere.
               | 
               | In contrast, there's enough atmosphere available on Mars
               | to make it possible to build larger, pressurized
               | structures and even use aerial flight, and more gravity
               | than on the Moon.
        
               | idlewords wrote:
               | The ISS design is ultimately constrained by cost and
               | fairing size (how big a thing you can fit on your
               | rocket), limits that are far more stringent for the
               | surface of Mars (where the limiting size is set by the
               | descent stage). The fact that it's in vacuum doesn't
               | affect its size at all.
               | 
               | The average surface pressure on Mars is a few millibars;
               | from an engineering perspective it's the same as building
               | pressurized structures in vacuum. If anything, it's more
               | difficult, since your design will have to deal with wind
               | loads and airborne dust.
        
               | Guvante wrote:
               | Bootstrapping scientific facilities in a planet with an
               | unbreathable atmosphere which can only be effectively
               | transversed to and from every 18 months is not an easy
               | thing.
               | 
               | Not to mention the phenomenal effort required to grow
               | food there or transport who knows how much food per
               | person to provide the kinds of safety margins you would
               | want to avoid your first Mars astronauts starving.
        
               | idlewords wrote:
               | An amusing and underappreciated technical obstacle to
               | Mars trips is that food you can subsist on long-term with
               | that kind of unrefrigerated shelf life doesn't exist,
               | even on Earth.
               | 
               | BTW the Earth/Mars synodic period is not 18 months, but
               | 26 months.
        
               | kwhitefoot wrote:
               | How did Reid Stowe manage? He surely could not have
               | relied on frozen food, too much risk of a generator
               | failing.
               | 
               | "In 2010 Stowe completed a more extensive ocean voyage,
               | entitled 1000 Days at Sea: The Mars Ocean Odyssey--a
               | journey that commenced on April 21, 2007, from the 12th
               | St. Pier, Hoboken, New Jersey.[1] Stowe was the principal
               | designer and builder of the Anne, a 70 ft (21.3 m),
               | 60-ton (54,400 kg) gaff-rigged schooner which he sailed
               | on this voyage.[1][2] The purpose of the enterprise was
               | to remain on the open ocean, without resupply or pulling
               | into any harbor, for a period of one thousand days, "
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_Stowe
        
               | macNchz wrote:
               | > In contrast, there's enough atmosphere available on
               | Mars to make it possible to build larger, pressurized
               | structures and even use aerial flight, and more gravity
               | than on the Moon.
               | 
               | True, though the atmosphere there brings challenges of
               | its own:
               | 
               | "Every year there are some moderately big dust storms
               | that pop up on Mars and they cover continent-sized areas
               | and last for weeks at a time," said Michael Smith, a
               | planetary scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
               | in Greenbelt, Maryland.
               | 
               | https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/the-fact-and-fiction-
               | of-ma...
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > In contrast, there's enough atmosphere available on
               | Mars
               | 
               | The martian atmosphere has less than 1% the pressure of
               | Earths: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Mars
               | 
               | So for the purposes of building habitats, it might as
               | well have none.
               | 
               | > and even use aerial flight
               | 
               | Yes, if we are talking about very small, very light
               | robotic probes, that can rotate their blades 10 times
               | faster than what's required on earth.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingenuity_(helicopter)#Mech
               | ani...
        
             | usrbinbash wrote:
             | > but their range of activity is extremely limited.
             | 
             | Not when I compare it with the range of activities a human
             | can do _on Mars_.
        
             | Wytwwww wrote:
             | > but the ground you can cover with several manned missions
             | is currently greater.
             | 
             | Wouldn't we able be to build much better robots which would
             | probably be more effective than humans for the same cost it
             | would take to send a manned mission to Mars?
        
           | sho_hn wrote:
           | By the way, I enjoyed your essay on this topic:
           | https://idlewords.com/2023/1/why_not_mars.htm
           | 
           | I imagine it must be hard to participate in the conversation
           | without simply pointing people at it, so I've decided to let
           | you off the hook :-)
           | 
           | Still occasionally refresh hoping to find the sequel ...
        
         | datameta wrote:
         | Columbus is not a measuring stick for human exploration...
         | Nevertheless I think some would be flabberghasted that such a
         | leap fizzled out but some would wonder why we went in the first
         | place if not to gather resources.
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | I think they'd have gotten the Cold War dick measuring
           | aspect, or at least the Victorians would have; a lot of 19th
           | century colonialism was of that general form (in particular
           | see Germany in Africa).
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | Victorians/Columbus didn't exactly have scientific study on
         | their mind. If there was oil or gold on Mars it would have been
         | "discovered" several times over by now.
         | 
         | Also I'm not sure how we've "given up" considering there are
         | two rovers on Mars right now, the last one going as recently as
         | 2021, plus several more in development. People expecting Mars
         | colonies by now have been reading too much sci-fi.
        
           | frutiger wrote:
           | Wouldn't discovering a massive supply of gold on Mars
           | instantly devalue it?
        
             | paxys wrote:
             | Not if you control how much you mine and bring home.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | OGIC "Organization of Gold Importing Corporations"
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | First I laughed, then I remembered it worked with
               | diamonds.
        
             | colanderman wrote:
             | Not if you are the first and establish exclusive control of
             | the supply.
        
               | lagniappe wrote:
               | Find out who that person is, and bring them water.
        
             | gus_massa wrote:
             | The shipping and handling fees are astronomical. Sending
             | gold to Mars is very expensive. Sending gold from Mars is
             | even more expensive. In particular there are no oil
             | deposits in Mars, so kerosene for the return rocket is very
             | expensive. (Hydrogen and Oxygen are very expensive too.)
             | 
             | Note that there is already a huge amount of gold in the
             | oceans, but it's very diluted so it's too expensive to
             | extract. You don't want to just know that there is gold.
             | You want to know how much profit you would get after the
             | gold bars arrive to Fort Knox.
        
               | mattsan wrote:
               | What about generating methane and oxygen from Mars'
               | atmosphere? I'm aware it would take a long time and a
               | vast area of solar panels but say we set up a base there,
               | would it be feasible?
               | 
               | edit: this is assuming we're not allowed to set up
               | nuclear reactors there
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | Maybe not Mars, but if you're willing to go to Titan
               | there are literal lakes of methane:
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakes_of_Titan
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Titan
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | But then you'd have to bring the oxygen instead. To
               | manufacture anything resembling normal rocket fuel you
               | need at least oxygen + hydrogen. Preferrably oxygen,
               | hydrogen and carbon, so you don't have to deal with
               | cryogenic storage of hydrogen.
        
               | kwhitefoot wrote:
               | There is water on other satellites.
        
               | gus_massa wrote:
               | It's weird to think about Titan. Fuel is free as air
               | here, but to drive a ICE car ypu need to pay to fill the
               | oxygen tanks of your car.
        
               | anticensor wrote:
               | And oxidiser injectors and fuel turbochargers.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | Possible in theory? Yes.
               | 
               | Feasible? No.
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wum8_8sWdeU
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHjOXvmuZWQ
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-MQrp2P2GI
        
               | echelon wrote:
               | > In particular there are no oil deposits in Mars,
               | 
               | We really lucked out with all of that ancient
               | unmetabolized biomass.
               | 
               | Without that, we might not have had our fancy computers
               | by this point.
        
               | HPsquared wrote:
               | The cost would come down massively if there was ongoing
               | repeated operation. Things are mostly expensive because
               | everything is bespoke and one-off.
        
               | jacobwilliamroy wrote:
               | >there are no oil deposits on Mars
               | 
               | I'm genuinely curious: why do you say this?
        
             | hackeraccount wrote:
             | The thing I wonder about is this - what if there's a city
             | on Mars that has a 10 ton block of gold.
             | 
             | What's the price of gold on Earth? Is it the same as now?
             | What if I could email someone on Mars and buy 50oz of gold?
             | Could I sell it to someone here? What if it's cost
             | prohibitive to move all of the gold to Earth? Or any of the
             | gold to Earth? How refined does the Martian gold have to be
             | before someone on Mars can say the own it?
             | 
             | The answers to all of those are clear (or at least only
             | marginally unclear) for materials that are intrinsically
             | valuable but for the "store of vaule" as opposed to
             | industrial use of something like gold it gets weird for me.
             | 
             | I guess the answer to all of those questions is - whatever
             | someone will pay.
        
               | huthuthike wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones
               | 
               | In Micronesia there was a practice of carving massive
               | "coins" out of stone. These "Rai stones" were often too
               | large to move. Yet individuals could "own" them and they
               | were traded often for things of great value. I believe I
               | even read an account of one that had sunk in a shipwreck,
               | but the owners went on to trade it even though it was at
               | the bottom of the sea.
               | 
               | Just cause a physical item cannot be possessed physically
               | doesn't mean it is valueless.
               | 
               | However, for gold specifically, part of what makes it
               | valuable is that it has some manufacturing uses and
               | people like making jewelry out of it. There is no doubt a
               | much larger supply of gold throughout the universe than
               | on earth and it has no effect on the price here.
               | 
               | So I think while you can buy and sell gold on another
               | planet (provided people can widely agree on it's transfer
               | of ownership), that would be a completely separate market
               | from the terrestrial gold market.
        
             | tenpies wrote:
             | Gold is probably also not valuable enough on a per volume
             | or per weight basis to offset the transport costs.
             | 
             | We'd need something much more valuable, although the usual
             | go-to, diamonds, also wouldn't work since it's a highly
             | controlled market.
             | 
             | At that point you're in exotic materials territory. Maybe a
             | natural source of Californium which on Earth is only
             | produced in reactors or particle accelerators, and actually
             | has industrial uses? Even if its price dropped
             | substantially, we'd probably find new uses for the new
             | supply and the stuff costs millions of USD _per gram_.
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | > If there was oil or gold on Mars it would have been
           | "discovered" several times over by now.
           | 
           | There is something even rarer than gold on the moon:
           | helium-3, usable for cryotechnology and potentially in
           | nuclear fusion reactors. Helium on the Earth is about to run
           | out (partially because the US keeps on selling their
           | stockpiles, that are then wasted for stuff like party
           | balloons) - that is why everyone and their dog are pushing
           | moon missions at the moment.
        
             | mjh2539 wrote:
             | _Cheap_ helium on Earth is running out. We can always
             | transmute more.
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | The principal difference from Mars is that you don't need a
             | rocket to send bulk goods from the Moon, you can literally
             | hurl it into an Earth-bound orbit using an electromagnetic
             | catapult. Sunlight is also more plentiful on the Moon, so
             | powering the catapult does not require operating a large
             | nuclear reactor.
             | 
             | When some if the new 3He-based fusion reactors with huge
             | magnets actually breaks even, this _maybe_ become
             | potentially practical. You don 't need so much 3He for
             | generation if you produce it from Li in the blanket.
        
           | maxlin wrote:
           | If there was a new continent somehow popped up we wouldn't be
           | fine just sending some drones there or taking pictures of it
           | with satellites.
           | 
           | We have had the capability to develop ourselves to send a
           | colony to mars in 10 years if we really wanted to, for 50
           | years, so yes we're late. But I for one am very happy we've
           | got some real vision and development towards it now.
        
             | paxys wrote:
             | > We have had the capability to develop ourselves to send a
             | colony to mars in 10 years if we really wanted to, for 50
             | years
             | 
             | Like I said, pure delusion. We can still barely manage to
             | launch rockets into space, and it still costs thousands of
             | dollars per kg of cargo just to get to LEO. No human has
             | lived in space for an extended period of time at a range
             | beyond the ISS (400 km, while Mars is 400 _million_ km).
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | On Mars you can build shelter with dirt or in caves. You
               | would be better protected than in LEO.
               | 
               | The _Moon_ is very inhospitable, but it 's close enough
               | we could have just shuttled an endless stream of ready-
               | to-live habitat modules there, one after another. The
               | tech was there. The will was not.
               | 
               | I'm not saying it would have been _rational_ to do it in
               | the 1970s, but we could have!
               | 
               | On the other hand, what we actually _did_ do (to the
               | Earth) wasn 't exactly rational, either.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > On Mars you can build shelter with dirt or in caves.
               | 
               | Really? What machines would be used to build these
               | shelters? How do they get to Mars? How would they be
               | powered? What auxilliary materials will they require and
               | how do those get to Mars?
        
               | notfish wrote:
               | Pretty sure we could design and launch a digging robot in
               | 10 years, I dont really buy that as the bottleneck to
               | mars exploration
        
               | axus wrote:
               | I'm pretty sure that we could not, I guess our opinions
               | cancel each other out.
        
               | feoren wrote:
               | Humans have 10 successful missions landing robots on
               | Mars, starting in 1975. Robots have been operating on
               | Mars continuously for almost 20 years. Opportunity was
               | active for 15 years. The helicopter Ingenuity has flown
               | 63 separate times and counting. The Perseverance rover is
               | about the size of a hatchback car and carries seven
               | advanced scientific instruments.
               | 
               | Ten years of strong-willed national effort was enough to
               | get us humans landing on the moon. From where we are now,
               | you honestly don't think ten years of strong-willed
               | national (or even international) effort could get us a
               | robot capable of digging holes?
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > you honestly don't think ten years of strong-willed
               | national (or even international) effort could get us a
               | robot capable of digging holes?
               | 
               | Yes, I do think that.
               | 
               | Because there is a big difference between an exploratory
               | vehicle that carries a number of scientific instruments
               | and can be powered by a few solar panels or a small
               | nuclear battery...
               | 
               | ...and these beautys:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunnel_boring_machine
               | 
               | Just for comparisons sake: Perseverances MMRTG provides
               | 110 watts of power. A single metric horsepower is 735.5
               | watts. I leave looking up the power requirements of even
               | a small machine that would be capable of digging habitats
               | into the martian bedrock, as an exercise to the reader.
        
               | feoren wrote:
               | I agree it's not realistic to send a full tunnel boring
               | machine, drilling out 200 to 700 meters per week for
               | subways and highways, to Mars in the next 10 years. Such
               | a thing would have to be assembled on Mars with advanced
               | industry already in place.
               | 
               | I vehemently disagree that we need a 700 meter/week
               | behemoth, sized for heavy rail, to dig out a habitat for
               | one or two dozen humans. I'm imagining something more
               | like a small-ish Roadheader[1], two to four times larger
               | than Perseverance. It would either need to be Diesel
               | powered (yes, shipping the diesel would suck, but it
               | doesn't need to run forever) or we'd need a small solar
               | farm and a couple Tesla batteries powering the thing (we
               | probably want that anyway, for our habitat).
               | 
               | It would take months to dig out a cave large enough for
               | 10 to 20 humans, and there are hundreds of other problems
               | to solve to actually turn a small, potentially unstable
               | Martian cave into a livable habitat. We know the first
               | steps will be slow; that's OK. Besides, we have a decade
               | of engineering to refine the design. Don't underestimate
               | humans.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roadheader
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | Okay, let's talk about that.
               | 
               | A (very) small roadheader starts at around 8 metric
               | tonnes, and requires around 20kW of power...just for
               | operating the cutting head. And that's a really small
               | one.
               | 
               | Again, for comparison, Perseverance: 1025kg, 110W of
               | power
               | 
               | > It would either need to be Diesel powered
               | 
               | That would be a neat trick on a planet with an
               | atmospheric pressure of 610 pascals, where oxygen
               | registers barely above a trace element.
               | 
               | > or we'd need a small solar farm
               | 
               | Or maybe a not so small one.
               | 
               | Using Tesla solar panels
               | https://www.tesla.com/solarpanels as a reference point,
               | they produce up to 400W and are just shy of 2m2. That's
               | on Earth. Solar irradiance on Mars is 59% of Earths, so
               | these panels will probably produce ~240W apiece. So to
               | meet the energy requirements of even a small roadheader,
               | we need 83 of these panels, each of which is ~21.5kg in
               | mass, so a total of 1.784t in solar panels alone.
               | 
               | Note, that is without cabling, inverters, electronics,
               | spare panels, support structures, etc. ... or the
               | batteries for that matter. Production numbers are also
               | for peak sunlight conditions on Mars, so best-case
               | daylight during the martian summer, and no dust storms.
               | 
               | So depending on how heavy the batteries are, I reckon we
               | are already looking at around 12-14 tons of equipment,
               | just for digging with a single machine. And that doesn't
               | include any prefabricated parts, spare parts, airlocks,
               | other heavy machinery, support beams, other auxilliary
               | materials....
               | 
               | I mean, these roadheaders will require new drill heads
               | every now and then, won't they?
               | 
               | What's the payload capacity of our current space ship
               | designs again? Because...
               | 
               | > It would take months to dig out a cave large enough for
               | 10 to 20 humans,
               | 
               | ...we need food and water and medical supplies and power
               | and space suits, and a lot of other things for all these
               | people. Oh, and habitats, because they will need
               | somewhere to live during all these months bevore the cave
               | is ready.
        
               | notfish wrote:
               | You could totally just dig a 1 meter deep hole with a
               | fancy bulldozer, then plop down a prefabbed house and
               | bury it
               | 
               | Hell, you could even have humans do the digging assisted
               | by machines and just live on the surface for the first
               | few months while they build
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > You could totally just dig a 1 meter deep hole with a
               | fancy bulldozer, then plop down a prefabbed house and
               | bury it
               | 
               | Yes, and that "prefabbed house", that is sturdy enough
               | that we can "bury it" under a pile of rock [1] thick
               | enough to provide adequate protection from cosmic
               | radiation, where does that come from? How much mass is
               | that? How is that mass transported to mars? What machines
               | and tools are required to assemble it there, and how much
               | mass are those? How is the energy for these tools
               | provided?
               | 
               | [1]: Just to be clear what a pile we are talking about
               | here: If we used the water-shield method, it would
               | require 5m of water for a 50% reduction in radiation
               | intensity.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | Design? Sure.
               | 
               | Launch? Maybe.
               | 
               | Launch while also having to launch everything the people
               | we send there need for the rest of their lives, and also
               | launch everything needed to power and maintain that robot
               | for as long as it's required? Hmmmmm...
               | 
               | But okay, let's say we do all that. We can now dig up
               | Mars-dirt. How do we make that into airtight shelter that
               | is also proof against cosmic radiation?
        
               | notfish wrote:
               | Probably, you dig a hole then put an inflatable hab
               | inside and bury it? This feels like a supremely solvable
               | problem
        
               | Wytwwww wrote:
               | > On Mars you can build shelter with dirt or in caves.
               | You would be better protected than in LEO.
               | 
               | Is that true? Maybe if you never ever go outside but you
               | might as well just dig a very deep cave here on Earth if
               | your entire is to prove that humans can live in extremely
               | inhospitable environments.
        
               | lamontcg wrote:
               | Apollo wasn't really fiscally sustainable, particularly
               | given the expansion that you visualize. In 1965 it was
               | 0.75% of GDP per year and NASA was 1% of GDP per year. By
               | comparison the "pork program" SLS is running at 0.018% of
               | GDP so is 40x more affordable. Expanding the Apollo
               | spending in the 1970s probably wouldn't have helped us
               | any when climate change became a concern.
        
             | usrbinbash wrote:
             | > If there was a new continent somehow popped up we
             | wouldn't be fine just sending some drones there or taking
             | pictures of it with satellites.
             | 
             | True.
             | 
             | You know what else is true? We could breathe on that new
             | continent, there would be enough nitrogen compounds to grow
             | food, anyone who wanted to go back home could eventually do
             | so, our colonists bodies would not deteriorate due to the
             | low gravity, and if our colonists there got into trouble,
             | we could send help before they all died horribly.
        
               | notfish wrote:
               | There are nitrates on mars, nobody is seriously proposing
               | unconditional one way trips, mars has enough gravity to
               | prevent bone loss.
               | 
               | But yes, it does mean bringing your own air and being
               | self sufficient, but we do both of those things on the
               | ISS already
        
               | ccooffee wrote:
               | There are definitely people advocating one-way trips to
               | Mars. Buzz Aldrin wrote "Mission to Mars: My Vision for
               | Space Exploration" (2013) pushing the idea of one-way
               | trips and colonization by 2040. There are quite a few
               | projects that have invested time and money into the idea.
               | MarsOne (2012-2019) is possibly the most serious of the
               | attempts, but they weren't exactly close to sending a
               | mission.
        
               | Wytwwww wrote:
               | I guess there are zero practical reasons to go to Mars
               | that would justify the massive cost required to do so.
               | The only thing that comes close on Earth (from the
               | practicality perspective) is the exploration of
               | Antarctica and the Artic and that was done on a shoe-
               | string budget.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > There are nitrates on mars
               | 
               | The martian atmosphere is 2.8% N2. For comparison, Earths
               | atmoshpere is 78.08% N2, while also being more than 100x
               | as dense. And Earth already has soil, and a developed
               | nitrogen cycle, while Mars doesn't.
               | 
               | So there is nowhere near enough Nitrogen in-situ on Mars
               | to support any form of agriculture. It has to be brought
               | from Earth.
               | 
               | > mars has enough gravity to prevent bone loss
               | 
               | https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2017/07/407806/traveling-mars-
               | will...
               | 
               | So yes, lowered gravity has negative impacts on our bones
               | and physiology in general. The gravity on Mars is 1/3
               | that of Earth. And that's after spending several months
               | in-transit at microgravity.
               | 
               | > But yes, it does mean bringing your own air and being
               | self sufficient, but we do both of those things on the
               | ISS already
               | 
               | The ISS is not self sufficient, and relies on continuos
               | supply runs from earth: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unc
               | rewed_spaceflights_to_the_I...
        
               | notfish wrote:
               | Nitrates on earth range from 10-50 mg/kg in soil, on mars
               | they make up 1100ppm = 0.1% = 1mg/kg, so in the extreme
               | you can convert 10% of martian land to soil. Seems like
               | plenty.
               | 
               | We just don't know if the 1/3 gravity will cause bone
               | loss problems - going to the moon is the best way to
               | study it, but who knows. Probably, people will just age
               | 3x faster in terms of bone mass on mars.
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaceflight_osteopenia
               | 
               | And yeah, the first years of a mars colony are gonna be
               | dependent on earth. We'd definitely make sure we have
               | enough rockets that they can abort if shit goes south on
               | supply missions, but there's no reason earth can't supply
               | them at first.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | Nitrogen in Earths soil is present in the form of
               | Ammonia, and derived substances. Occurring naturally, it
               | is the product of microbial nitrogen fixation of
               | diazotrophic bacteria, and subsequent biological
               | processing. Plants can use these compounds directly.
               | 
               | Nitrates on mars will probably be in the form of nitrate
               | salts.
               | 
               | Btw. agriculture also requires soil. Which the martian
               | regolith isn't.
               | 
               | > We'd definitely make sure we have enough rockets that
               | they can abort if shit goes south on supply missions
               | 
               | Have enough rockets where? On mars? Using what fuel?
               | Using what ground installations like scaffolds and launch
               | pads? Also, launching between Mars and Earth is only
               | possible during specific time windows. For an Earth-Mars
               | transit, these occur ~once every 2 years. So if "shit
               | goes south" outside these windows, the amount of rockets
               | won't matter.
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | Earth crust has relatively small amounts of iron, or
               | nickel, or silver, but it has areas with high
               | concentration of these, so large as to enable massive
               | metallurgy on Earth.
               | 
               | Chances are, Mars may have local concentrations of
               | nitrous minerals (as does Earth), and these can be used
               | to run a large enough agriculture. Few plants know how to
               | consume atmospheric nitrogen anyway.
               | 
               | Air pressure and temperature can be maintained below
               | transparent domes, greenhouse-style.
               | 
               | Dim sunlight looks like a much bigger problem, which
               | can't be fixed by any terraforming.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > Chances are, Mars may have local concentrations of
               | nitrous minerals
               | 
               | Which would have to be found, ideally near the equator
               | (otherwise landing and solar power generation is going to
               | be a problem), mined and transported. And since Nitrous
               | minerals aren't fertilizer, it would have to be processed
               | (which is an energy intensive process even on earth,
               | where we get to use atmospheric Nitrogen in the Haber-
               | Bosch-Process).
               | 
               | And of course there is no soil on mars, so we have to
               | bring that as well.
        
         | bigbillheck wrote:
         | Columbus was a pretty rotten human being, if his ghost is
         | looking up at us from Hell I don't care what he thinks.
        
         | usrbinbash wrote:
         | > We need to go there so we can study it properly.
         | 
         | The only thing that would accomplish, compared to sending
         | robotic probes, is wasted payload capacity that could otherwise
         | transport scientific instruments.
        
         | huthuthike wrote:
         | Well it took Columbus 2 months and 9 days to get across the
         | Atlantic. He never made it to India, which was his original
         | goal. The first expedition from Europe to India via the ocean
         | was by Vasco da Gama and it took him around 10 months.
         | 
         | Earth to the moon is 240,000 miles. Earth to Mars at it's
         | closest approach is 34 million miles. So this would be like
         | telling Columbus to sail not for 2 months and 9 days, but for
         | 27 years to get to India. He wasn't even willing to sail for 10
         | months to do it! (Also bear in mind that's the one-way
         | timeframe; the return from Mars would be about twice as long in
         | this scenario.)
         | 
         | And not only that but also let Columbus know there won't be any
         | gold, spices, or slaves at the end of the trip. See how willing
         | he is to dedicate the next 81 years of his life to it.
         | 
         | Hopefully this puts the interplanetary distance in perspective.
        
           | notfish wrote:
           | It doesnt take 27 years to get to mars. If you push, you can
           | get it down to like 8 months or shorter - it depends how much
           | fuel you bring.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars
        
             | huthuthike wrote:
             | You are right about that. My post was answering a poster
             | about "how would Columbus feel that we went to the moon but
             | not to Mars?" The 27 year timeframe is an analogy comparing
             | the distance to the moon vs the distance to Mars, and
             | relating it back to the timeframe it took Columbus to do
             | his famous voyage.
        
       | phkahler wrote:
       | I thought the "reason" mars has no magnetic field is that its
       | core solidified a long time ago. How does this new finding affect
       | understanding of Mars magnetics?
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | Earths core spins slightly faster than its surface. If Mars
         | core is locked with its surface speed because it is more
         | viscous then this may kill the field generation ability.
        
           | jpitz wrote:
           | Recently, it has come to light that the relative rotational
           | speed of Earth's core seems to have a decades long cycle of
           | leading and lagging the surface.
           | 
           | https://www.space.com/earth-inner-core-slowing-study
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | Oof. Does that mean it could lock in at any time?
             | 
             | Internal dynamics are weeeeird.
             | 
             | Wonder if the moon affects this.
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | My impression is that the "planet has no magnetic field <==>
         | planet has solid core" theory was retired quite a few decades
         | ago now.
         | 
         | The current theory looks like, at best, a work in progress:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamo_theory
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus#Magnetic_field_and_core
        
       | robg wrote:
       | The push for humans on Mars is deeply misguided. The same
       | resources should be used to send many more probes and for far
       | longer durations. After 100 years of deeply mapping all available
       | resources, then _maybe_ send humans if a long-term colony is
       | self-sustainable and necessary for deep space exploration with
       | better propulsion technologies.
       | 
       | Edit: Without a self-sustaining colony and next generation
       | propulsion tech, any humans on Mars as a backup plan will die
       | lonely deaths. Surprised people seem confused on the necessary
       | and sufficient conditions. Show me that robots can set up a self-
       | sustaining colony with self-generating resources to get to other
       | worlds, and that's a legit "backup" plan. Otherwise we're just
       | arguing about edge cases with no viable solutions. You don't need
       | humans on Mars to show what's possible.
        
         | baq wrote:
         | You're missing that a man with a shovel can find out in a day
         | what a robotic probe cannot find out in a year, unless you're
         | talking serious AI.
        
           | robg wrote:
           | You're telling me we can't send, in the next 100 years, a
           | fleet of remote controlled backhoes with the same sensors and
           | assays the human would use?
        
             | runeofdoom wrote:
             | With no buried fiber to feed on, the backhoes will starve.
        
           | macNchz wrote:
           | I don't really see what a person with a shovel could
           | accomplish that a robot can't, other than consuming the vast
           | majority of the project budget on life support systems.
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | Eyes.
        
               | macNchz wrote:
               | Are there things that someone can see with their eyes
               | that can't be picked up with an array of state of the art
               | cameras / specialty sensors / microscopes, that would
               | justify the overhead of everything required to get a
               | human there? I'm genuinely curious.
        
               | throwaway5752 wrote:
               | Human eyes are not good. We have a massive central void
               | in our vision that we literally fill in with our
               | imagination. We can't sense light polarity, we can't
               | sense beyond infrared or ultraviolet, and our resolution
               | is poor. I suspect you could put together and deliver to
               | Mars a highly redundant system with all of those
               | capabilities for less than the addition fuel cost to
               | launch a 100kg human, supplies, and life-support systems
               | out of Earth's gravity well.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | Cameras.
               | 
               | Which btw. can see better, further, and in a lot more
               | spectra than the human eyes. Oh, and they can record what
               | they see, and send it back for thousands of pairs of
               | human eyes to examine back home on earth, where the users
               | of said eyes are not constantly in danger of dying to
               | explosive decompression, being frozen to death, or killed
               | by space radiation or microabrasive silica dust.
               | 
               | And the best part? I don't have to waste tons of payload
               | capacity on food, water, air and toilet paper, just to
               | keep the cameras running!
        
               | tomrod wrote:
               | Eyes connect to one of the best diagnostic systems in the
               | universe.
               | 
               | IMHO, we should WANT TO waste tons and tons and tons on
               | payload capacity of food, water, air, and toilet paper,
               | to establish a permanent, viable, and most importantly
               | independent colony on Mars.
               | 
               | At our stage, having that come from the private sector
               | versus public sector makes more sense. Similar to how the
               | New World was colonized (minus/following the annihilation
               | of ancient cultures), governments explored but private
               | companies promised the reward settled.
               | 
               | People will die. Inevitably. Cannot be stopped. But we
               | should grow and expand as a species. Intelligence and
               | comprehension of beauty are unique and wonderful things,
               | in my opinion worth preserving across several planets,
               | solar systems, and I hope galaxies.
        
             | tkahnoski wrote:
             | Even a hybrid mission with humans in orbit doesn't make
             | sense. You have to bring less fuel for landing/take-off
             | from Mars. But for that same cost you could send way more
             | robotic workers and just deal with speed of light/delays
             | (3-20 minutes).
             | 
             | If there was significant uncertainty in what resources
             | needed to be deployed to where then I could see a benefit
             | to having an onboard team of humans who could assemble
             | workers or payloads on the fly from orbit. However this
             | would be a big shift from current mindset of designing
             | robots for exact problem/solutions with precise payloads to
             | instead having an excess of resources on board.
             | 
             | If the perspective shifted to "we're colonizing Mars so
             | every ounce of metal in orbit will get used at some point"
             | this is less of a concern.
        
           | usrbinbash wrote:
           | The robotic probe is backed up by thousands of scientists,
           | analyzing the data it sends back home, while the man with the
           | shovel is unlikely to even survive long enough on Mars (if he
           | even gets there alive) to discover anything the robot missed.
           | 
           | If I send a probe, I can pack the entire payload with
           | scientific instruments. If I send a man with a shovel, I have
           | to pack food, water, air, habitats, spacesuits, and other
           | tidbits instead, just to keep the man with the shovel alive
           | (for a time).
        
           | nick_ wrote:
           | Find out what, though? That it's a dry, frozen wasteland? For
           | tens of billions of dollars? No thanks.
        
         | tomrod wrote:
         | The push for human on Mars is misguided in that we aren't
         | taking enough risks.
         | 
         | We are one bad cosmic event from total known life annihilation.
         | That would be a bad day
        
           | soneca wrote:
           | What kind of cosmic event would transform Earth in a worse
           | place to support life than Mars currently is?
        
             | blue1 wrote:
             | Impact with a rogue planet?
             | 
             | Grey goo?
        
             | downvotetruth wrote:
             | A directed gamma ray burst could affect the solar system:
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLykC1VN7NY A nuclear
             | powered bunker seems much more pragmatic than generation
             | ship(s) to another star system to survive one.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | I would argue that a civilization that is actually
               | capable of building a generation spaceship, should be
               | capable of defending their planet from GRBs.
               | 
               | How? I have no idea.
               | 
               | Then again, we also have no idea how to build an actually
               | working generation ship :D
        
             | FranOntanaya wrote:
             | In the long run an overheated planet Venus style is much
             | harder to deal with than a cold, nearly airless one.
             | Anything that triggered mass plant death and decomposition
             | could do.
        
           | roughly wrote:
           | We are nowhere near being able to support and propagate life
           | unaided on Mars. Life on mars as a backup for life on earth
           | is like keeping bitcoin in case of a technological collapse.
        
             | hackeraccount wrote:
             | Is this an argument for doing more or doing nothing?
        
               | cmrdporcupine wrote:
               | It's an argument for doing the _right things_.
        
               | tomrod wrote:
               | Today, that's more.
        
             | WrongAssumption wrote:
             | And how do you think we would go about achieving that
             | capability?
        
           | cmrdporcupine wrote:
           | Except Mars has already had total life annihilation, so I'm
           | not sure what the point of using that as your argument is...
           | 
           | Stick a few people on an already-annihilated planet where
           | they will never become self-sufficient, anyways?
           | 
           | If you want humanity to escape vulnerability on earth, your
           | best bet is to not go into another gravity well at all. Esp
           | one with no ionosphere, thin unusable atmosphere, brutal
           | storms, and toxic fine sand everywhere.
           | 
           | The moon makes a lot more sense -- easier to manage
           | shipping/trade with earth, no gravity well. And if you need
           | off a planetary body completely, build orbitals.
           | 
           | Also many life-terminating events for earth -- local
           | (galactic region) supernovae or other mass irradiating event,
           | our own sun flaming out, etc. would just do the same to Mars.
        
         | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
         | It would really suck if, in the next 100 years, we see some
         | extinction-level comet or asteroid crash into the Earth when we
         | might have done the "not all our eggs in one basket".
         | 
         | Some kinds of caution aren't very careful at all.
        
           | kzrdude wrote:
           | What timeframe do we need to setup a fully independent colony
           | on Mars, so that we survive if Earth is not there?
           | 
           | If you asked me to guess, it would be somewhere between
           | impossible and 1000 years of terraforming.
        
           | jrd259 wrote:
           | Suppose we did get 100 year advance notice of some
           | catastrophe. How many people would call it "fake news", or
           | perhaps even interpret it as part of "God's plan"? Let's
           | suppose, through some miracle, a substantial majority of the
           | world agrees the catastrophe is coming, agrees to cooperate,
           | to accept unlimited damage to the Earth (so e.g. we can use
           | Project Orion style launchers) and to give up on all short-
           | term profit.
           | 
           | Our response to climate change (which, even if it's not at
           | the level of total planetary extinction, is still quite
           | serious) suggests we would instead obfuscate, dispute and
           | quarrel.
           | 
           | Realistically, what fraction of the world's people could we
           | possibly move to Mars, and how would we even pick those
           | people? How would we even come to agree on a fair way to
           | choose?
           | 
           | We probably could get enough breeding pairs there to preserve
           | our species. There is evidence of genetic bottlenecks in the
           | past. But 99% of humans would be left to die. Not to mention
           | all other life forms. (Maybe we'll bring cats, too?)
           | 
           | I'm not opposed to visiting Mars, but to do so under the
           | claim that we could save humanity from disaster is utter
           | folly.
        
           | Mechanical9 wrote:
           | Is it even remotely possible that a Mars colony could become
           | self-sustaining within the next 100 years? It seems like
           | surviving the loss of Earth is a long way off regardless.
        
             | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
             | It certainly won't be if we don't build the infrastructure
             | to send (temporarily, at least) people to Mars.
             | 
             | Can we bootstrap up an energy economy there? Dunno, that's
             | the first step. With a large enough energy budget, food's
             | doable. Water is likely in situ.
             | 
             | > It seems like surviving the loss of Earth is a long way
             | off regardless.
             | 
             | Even longer if you wait to try.
        
           | usrbinbash wrote:
           | It would suck a lot more if we wasted money on a mars colony,
           | that will take hundreds of years to become self sufficient,
           | if it is possible at all (I am still waiting for a solution
           | to human bodies deteriorating in low gravity that is actually
           | workable at scale), instead of using these resources to
           | further develop things that have already had successful
           | experimental runs.
           | 
           | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63221577
           | 
           | Added bonus: Investing resources into this saves Earth and
           | everyone on it.
        
         | maxlin wrote:
         | 100 years with ZERO humans on mars? You have no sense of risk
         | or scale. We should be there already.
         | 
         | We're focusing everything on the easier planet that might not
         | be livable after one year of bad politics. In 100 years your
         | kind of thinking will be considered ludditean and playing
         | russian roulette with 5 in the chamber for no reason.
        
           | throwaway5752 wrote:
           | Apply startup software ethos to interplanetary travel! It did
           | well for deep sea exploration.
        
             | rowanG077 wrote:
             | I have no idea how you got that from the comment.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | The middle ground you're ignoring (between #yolo startup
             | culture and Boeing's defense contractor culture) has been
             | done pretty well with SpaceX's Falcon 9.
        
               | throwaway5752 wrote:
               | The technologies to delivery humans to and back from Mars
               | with any defensible level of safety do not currently
               | exist. The benefits of doing so are dubious and the real
               | viability of a human colony are almost nil. The sort of
               | people that advocate otherwise have killed innocent
               | civilians deep in the North Atlantic and are failing to
               | run a previously healthy, if unspectacular, social
               | network. It is less exciting work, but we should make
               | every effort to not reduce ourselves to a Paleolithic
               | lifestyle on our home planet via accidental terraforming
               | instead.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | > The technologies to delivery humans to and back from
               | Mars with any defensible level of safety do not currently
               | exist.
               | 
               | But are being worked on. This statement would've been
               | true about landing Falcon 9 stages less than a decade
               | ago.
               | 
               | > The sort of people that advocate otherwise have killed
               | innocent civilians deep in the North Atlantic and are
               | failing to run a previous healthy, if unspectacular,
               | social network.
               | 
               | The differences between SpaceX's approach to safety and
               | how Twitter's being run are pretty stark. Same guy, very
               | different cultures. SpaceX's safety record is good enough
               | for NASA, and they're hardly the #yolo set.
        
               | throwaway5752 wrote:
               | https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-closes-spacex-starship-
               | mish... I was not impressed by this incident and it gives
               | me concerns for their safety culture. My comment is not
               | limited to propulsion or delivery technology.
               | 
               | I respect SpaceX, but I also respect the real challenges
               | of responsibly sending a crew to Mars.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Does the Apollo 1 accident report give you similar
               | concerns about NASA's culture and ability to get to the
               | moon?
        
               | runeofdoom wrote:
               | Musk is in the driver's seat at Twitter. At SpaceX he's a
               | frontman, carefully managed by people who know both him
               | and rocket science.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | While I agree (and give a lot of credit to Gwynne
               | Shotwell for the steady hand), that reinforces the point;
               | that you can do space work somewhere inbetween "startup"
               | and "giant defense contractor" style approaches.
        
             | hn_version_0023 wrote:
             | HN is unprepared for this level of sarcasm.
        
           | robg wrote:
           | With no next gen propulsion system and no self-sustaining
           | colony, humans on Mars are a resource sink with no added
           | benefits.
           | 
           | Lest you forget it took 300 years for North America to
           | generate self-sustaining colonies from the first Europeans.
           | And those didn't require life support for oxygen and water
           | for every second of survival.
        
             | robotresearcher wrote:
             | North America had self sustaining human populations for
             | thousands of years before they ever saw a European.
        
               | burnished wrote:
               | The point is the challenge that was involved sending a
               | small group on the same planet out to be self sufficient,
               | not commentary about the habitability of the americas. If
               | anything that underlines their point.
        
           | disconcision wrote:
           | While I think having people on mars would be neat, I'm not
           | sure there's anything we could do to earth period, let alone
           | in a year, that would make it less livable than mars
        
           | usrbinbash wrote:
           | > We should be there already.
           | 
           | Why? What purpose does a human presence on Mars have?
           | Exploratory activity can, is and should be done by robotic
           | drones. Mars has zero resources Earth doesn't already have in
           | abundance, is inimical to almost every lifeform on earth and
           | confers no advantage as a launch platform for furture space
           | exploration over the moon or a space station.
           | 
           | > We're focusing everything on the easier planet that might
           | not be livable after one year of bad politics.
           | 
           | Fun fact: Even after a full-scale thermonuclear war, Earth
           | would still be a more liveable planet than Mars.
           | 
           | So what policy decisions could possibly make Mars attractive
           | as a living space, or a "backup planet"?
        
             | thehappypm wrote:
             | My sad take is that if we ruin Earth, we don't deserve a
             | second chance. We would just ruin Mars too.
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > We would just ruin Mars too.
               | 
               | Well, considering that Mars is currently a frozen, low-
               | gravity, toxic, airless, irradiated, soil-less desert
               | with barely any water, no nitrogen to speak of, very few
               | options for energy generation, no protection from cosmic
               | radiation and constantly wrecked by planet-wide
               | duststorms, I honestly cannot imagine how we could
               | possibly make it worse, even if we actively tried.
        
             | adriancr wrote:
             | > Why? What purpose does a human presence on Mars have?
             | 
             | I bet some people said the same about america in 1400s.
             | 
             | You never know what can come from this in the future.
             | 
             | If we can we should.
             | 
             | > So what policy decisions could possibly make Mars
             | attractive as a living space, or a "backup planet"?
             | 
             | Large asteroid impact might destroy us entirely like this:
             | https://youtu.be/02S3_DEaQWA?si=urqC47r14cFxbNjD
        
               | usrbinbash wrote:
               | > I bet some people said the same about america in 1400s.
               | 
               | Here is what I bet _noone_ said about america in the
               | 1400s:
               | 
               |  _" Man, it sure would be nice if there was air, arable
               | soil, and building materials in america."_
               | 
               | > If we can we should.
               | 
               | Humans can do lots of things that they absolutely
               | shouldn't.
               | 
               | > Large asteroid impact
               | 
               | Ah, so we moved on from policy decisions. Good. Okay,
               | let's talk asteroids.
               | 
               | a) I would be alot more worried about asteroids if I were
               | on Mars. Mars is closer to the asteroid belt after all,
               | and it's thin atmosphere is a lot less of a hurdle to
               | evil space rocks than Earths.
               | 
               | b) Humanity has already proven, that it has the technical
               | capability to alter an asteroids course: https://en.wikip
               | edia.org/wiki/Double_Asteroid_Redirection_Te... So far,
               | humanity has _NOT_ proven that it can build a self-
               | sustaining colony on mars. As a matter of fact, we have
               | not even done so in the Antarctic Dry Valleys, and they
               | would at least have air there. So purely from the
               | perspective of resource-allocation, it seems there are
               | better ways to protect humanity from asteroid impacts,
               | than trying to build a mars-colony.
        
               | adriancr wrote:
               | > Here is what I bet noone said about america in the
               | 1400s:
               | 
               | The point I made is you can never know the benefits.
               | 
               | Asimov, end of eternity is a pretty nice book to see how
               | your point of view might be flawed.
               | 
               | > Humanity has already proven, that it has the technical
               | capability to alter an asteroids course: https://en.wikip
               | edia.org/wiki/Double_Asteroid_Redirection_Te...
               | 
               | Sure... we can barely detect asteroids and you're saying
               | we can deflect them, is the argument in good faith?, do
               | you really believe we can detect and deflect a planet
               | killer?
               | 
               | > So purely from the perspective of resource-allocation,
               | it seems there are better ways to protect humanity from
               | asteroid impacts, than trying to build a mars-colony.
               | 
               | So you don't want humanity to waste resources on space.
               | That is your point of view which I hope is a minority at
               | large. I disagree, but I doubt I can convince you
               | otherwisr.
        
           | hotnfresh wrote:
           | > We're focusing everything on the easier planet that might
           | not be livable after one year of bad politics.
           | 
           | Nuked Earth that's also climate-changed so bad that only the
           | poles are temperate is still a whole lot better than Mars.
           | 
           | Why is the solution for this "establish a colony somewhere
           | already 100x worse than a multi-catastrophe-stricken Earth
           | would be, and is also very-expensive to get back to Earth
           | from" ? It makes no sense.
           | 
           | Asteroid strike? There are (much) cheaper ways to guard
           | against that--hardened, distributed bunkers with paid
           | inhabitants, increasing asteroid-hunting programs and
           | interception research. Orbital habs or even the Moon if
           | you're worried about a whole-crust-liquifying event that you
           | can't stop in time. And we're not doing those. Why would we
           | do Mars? It's worse than those options in basically every
           | way. It's a _really really_ bad place.
           | 
           | Most the other threats those measures couldn't guard against,
           | would probably also take out Mars.
           | 
           | Going to Mars is cool and romantic and I hope to see it, but
           | I think people trying to pin some practical reason for
           | _colonization_ other than  "because it was there" (romantic)
           | are misguided.
        
         | jklinger410 wrote:
         | We should map the ocean and available resources on earth along
         | with future-proofing our atmosphere as a priority over
         | colonizing Mars.
         | 
         | Unless the cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis is true, in which
         | the solution is to get as many of us off this ticking time bomb
         | before it happens next.
        
           | throwaway290 wrote:
           | I don't think the pole shift theory holds, but there still
           | are all those rocks flying around solar system... as well as
           | gamma bursts, but those would probably take out Mars too.
        
             | pavel_lishin wrote:
             | If I remember correctly, a thick layer of soil would
             | protect people from a GRB - if most of the Martian colony
             | (or Lunar colony) lives underground, they would survive -
             | and there is no large-scale biosphere that humans depend on
             | for survival on Mars or the Moon.
             | 
             | As long as those colonies are self sufficient (the biggest
             | handwave of the whole deal), they would survive while the
             | majority of Earth would have a rather bad time of things.
             | 
             | Then again, it's likely that more humans would survive on
             | Earth than elsewhere - nuclear submarines, underground
             | government complexes, maybe even the Antarctica base
             | depending on the angle.
        
         | keiferski wrote:
         | People who say this don't understand that Mars colonies aren't
         | about pragmatic, resource-optimized decisions. Yes, it would be
         | a better use of resources to set up a colony on Antarctica
         | first. But who cares about that? It's not that interesting or
         | inspiring to anyone that doesn't already care about space
         | travel.
         | 
         | A human being landing on Mars would probably be the single most
         | watched event in human history. _It 's exciting._ That
         | excitement is what inspires people to get involved (and
         | governments to fund projects.)
         | 
         |  _If you want to build a ship, don 't drum up the men and women
         | to gather wood, divide the work, and give orders. Instead,
         | teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea._ - Antoine de
         | Saint Exupery
        
           | robg wrote:
           | Everything you say can be applied to the history of humans on
           | the Earth's moon. 50 years later you've been proven wrong.
           | Robots are better and cheaper at space exploration and humans
           | being in the loop have only made things more expensive and
           | more risky. The failures of human space adventures have made
           | things much harder on space budgets. See also the Shuttle
           | program, after Apollo.
        
             | keiferski wrote:
             | But nothing interesting has really happened on the moon
             | since the initial landings, so it's not surprising that
             | interest has dried up. There's no colony, no space casino
             | resort, nothing that is a big leap from the initial
             | achievement.
             | 
             | The simple fact of the matter is that no one really cares
             | about robots exploring the universe. Humans care about
             | humans, not probes.
        
               | robg wrote:
               | That's neither simple nor a fact. Space exploration has
               | almost all been robots, telescopes, probes, etc. The
               | interest has been self-sustaining with an endless stream
               | of discoveries, discoveries including still Voyager.
        
               | keiferski wrote:
               | And the average person has almost no interest in it,
               | _except_ for world-history events like the first landing
               | on the Moon. The first landing on Mars would be a similar
               | event.
        
               | robg wrote:
               | Sustained funding for 60 years shows the continued
               | interest in there, to use one of the "reasons" you cite
               | for Apollo.
        
             | fastball wrote:
             | You think there would've been _more_ interest if the Apollo
             | program had never happened, and we 'd just done it all with
             | robots?
        
               | robg wrote:
               | The last 60 years have shown the interest is there
               | without humans AND having humans in the loop dying have
               | deeply impaired progress based on limited resources and
               | their allocation.
        
           | deelowe wrote:
           | NDT* does an excellent job explaining this every time he gets
           | a chance to do so. One of my favorite quotes is him saying
           | something to the affect of "take a look at the pioneers of
           | space exploration. Note down their age. Notice a trend? They
           | all grew up during the apollo programs! Why? Because sending
           | a human to the moon was exciting. How many people do you see
           | today with posters of the rockets that carried Perseverance
           | or the rover itself versus Apollo or even the Shuttle? We
           | must put people in space, not because the science demands it,
           | but because of the impact it will have on society."
           | 
           | Sending humans to Mars isn't about exploring Mars. It's about
           | the impact this would have on society as a whole. Suddenly,
           | there's another planet out there that we care about and focus
           | on. Perhaps wars on earth seem just that much more petty? At
           | a minimum, it will likely inspire a whole new generation to
           | explore the cosmos.
           | 
           | * Neil has his flaws, I get it, but I've sort of come 360 on
           | him. His exuberance is contagious and as ambassador for space
           | exploration, his approach does have a certain "public
           | resonance" to it that I've not seen from others even if he
           | tends to embellish things...
        
             | robg wrote:
             | He's conflating all of the resources spent with the
             | outcomes involved. Need to see the graph?
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NASA-Budget-
             | Federal.svg
             | 
             | Now imagine if those same resources were spent on fusion
             | propulsion...
        
               | deelowe wrote:
               | Whataboutism.
               | 
               | I don't think he's confusing anything. He's saying the
               | only reason those funds were allocated were because:
               | 
               | 1) The government wanted to do it (military reasons)
               | 
               | and
               | 
               | 2) The public found it exciting (we're putting a man on
               | the moon)
               | 
               | Without either of those, this wouldn't have happened.
        
               | robg wrote:
               | Those two "reasons" are no where in the same universe.
               | Take away the Soviets and it wouldn't have happened. See
               | also the last 60 years.
        
               | deelowe wrote:
               | I said both were important... The military push already
               | exists today. See SpaceX...
        
             | tivert wrote:
             | > NDT* does an excellent job explaining this every time he
             | gets a chance to do so. One of my favorite quotes is him
             | saying something to the affect of "take a look at the
             | pioneers of space exploration. Note down their age. Notice
             | a trend? They all grew up during the apollo programs!
             | 
             | That doesn't make any sense at all. The "pioneers of space
             | exploration" would obviously include the people who _did_
             | Apollo [and Sputnik, and Mercury, etc], and they _obviously
             | did not_ grow up during the Apollo program, unless NASA has
             | a time machine they 're not telling us about.
        
               | deelowe wrote:
               | Most of the pioneers of space TODAY got into space b/c of
               | what they witnessed with apollo and to some extent, the
               | shuttle. According to NDT, budgets and education
               | enrollment has been down because of a lack of enthusiasm
               | and this lack of enthusiasm is b/c we no longer have
               | people EXPLORING the frontiers of space (the IST doesn't
               | count).
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > Most of the pioneers of space TODAY got into space b/c
               | of what they witnessed with apollo and to some extent,
               | the shuttle.
               | 
               | 1) that "TODAY" is a pretty important qualification, and
               | 2) it's a stretch to call those people pioneers. I live
               | in the American West TODAY, but I certainly shouldn't be
               | labeled a "pioneer" like the people who moved to this
               | area 150+ years ago.
        
               | hoten wrote:
               | I think the word is being stretched a bit, but not much.
               | Space is not inhabited by any meaningful number of
               | people, and very few have been, so for the foreseeable
               | future anyone simply leaving Earth could be called
               | pioneer - among the first to explore a new area.
        
               | deelowe wrote:
               | Feel free to substitute a more appropriate term. The
               | premise doesn't change.
        
             | dividedbyzero wrote:
             | No idea who NDT is, but I'm kind of afraid that doing
             | something like a Mars mission too early will turn out
             | having the opposite effect. With the tech available for a
             | soon-ish to launch Mars mission, chances are pretty high
             | that something would go wrong catastrophically, there's
             | just so much complexity that cannot break down for such a
             | long time under extreme conditions, we're not ready for
             | that. Watching the people we send there die slowly and
             | horrifically isn't going to be a rational "we knew the
             | risks" thing for the general public, people will be
             | horrified and it'll put a big damper on future endeavors of
             | this kind. I'd expect manned spaceflight to be pretty much
             | dead for decades after that.
        
               | robg wrote:
               | Exactly this. The current hype for a human on Mars is
               | repeating the mistakes of Apollo then the Shuttle. By
               | contrast the public has absolutely been engaged in what
               | rovers and telescopes find.
        
               | johnyzee wrote:
               | _Did we fly to the moon too soon? Did we squander the
               | chance? In the rush of the race The reason we chase is
               | lost in romance
               | 
               | And still we try To justify the waste for a taste of
               | man's greatest adventure_
               | 
               | Tasmin Archer - Sleeping Satelite
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Ck38Cl474
        
               | notfish wrote:
               | I feel like spacex is the only group that has a chance at
               | landing on mars this decade, and Starship is exactly what
               | we'd want if we were trying to make a self sustaining
               | mars colony right?
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | NDT = Neal deGrasse Tyson. Astrophysicist, director of
               | the Hayden Planetarium, a pretty big science
               | communicator.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_deGrasse_Tyson
        
           | kjkjadksj wrote:
           | So we risk a human dying 40 days from help and severely
           | overcomplicate the mission just for the public to not care
           | even a tenth as much as they did during the apollo era. I
           | wish we had a space program that didn't rely so much on
           | sacrificial heroics and building of a public myth.
        
           | tivert wrote:
           | > A human being landing on Mars would probably be the single
           | most watched event in human history.
           | 
           | I'm actually skeptical about that. It certainly would be the
           | "single most watched event in human history" _among geeks
           | interested in space,_ and probably among geeks in general and
           | nationalists of the country that did the landing, but I
           | suspect it 's a biased projection to extend that attitude to
           | all of humanity. Objectively, it's likely that stuff like the
           | opening days of some war or the 9/11 attacks would be more
           | watched than a Mars landing.
           | 
           | Apropos: Gil Scott-Heron - Whitey On the Moon (Official
           | Audio): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goh2x_G0ct4
        
             | keiferski wrote:
             | I think it would be comparable to the first moon landing.
             | Even if it wasn't _as big_ , the population and access to
             | video has drastically increased. It doesn't seem crazy to
             | me that a few billion people would watch it live/within 24
             | hours.
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > I think it would be comparable to the first moon
               | landing. Even if it wasn't as big, the population and
               | access to video has drastically increased.
               | 
               | Though that introduces the problem that you're not really
               | measuring what you're talking about, sort of like how
               | lists of the "highest-grossing films of all time," are
               | mostly about inflation and not popularity.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-
               | grossing_films:
               | 
               | > As the motion picture industry is highly oriented
               | towards marketing currently released films, unadjusted
               | figures are always used in marketing campaigns so that
               | new blockbuster films can much more easily achieve a high
               | sales ranking, and thus be promoted as a "top film of all
               | time",[24][31] so there is little incentive to switch to
               | a more robust analysis from a marketing or even
               | newsworthy point of view.[30]
        
             | wongarsu wrote:
             | The first human moon landing is among the top 5 most
             | watched television events, topped mostly by sports events
             | (and possibly the rescue of the rescue of Chilean miners).
             | 
             | Of course "most watched event" is more complicated, but I'd
             | still bet on the moon landing, soccer and the Olympic
             | opening ceremonies making up the top, rather than war or
             | terror attacks.
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > Of course "most watched event" is more complicated, but
               | I'd still bet on the moon landing, soccer and the Olympic
               | opening ceremonies making up the top, rather than war or
               | terror attacks.
               | 
               | IMHO, that makes my point much stronger. If sports got
               | higher ratings than the Moon landing, it's a clear
               | indication we're in a bubble that inflates the importance
               | of and interest in space exploration.
        
               | notfish wrote:
               | Or maybe it has gotten easier to watch things than it was
               | in 1969?
        
               | burnished wrote:
               | Might be making a mistake there, it sounds like you are
               | dismissing sports as unimportant, instead it might be
               | impressive that something so abstract and distant was
               | able to rival something so elemental and popular.
        
               | tivert wrote:
               | > Might be making a mistake there, it sounds like you are
               | dismissing sports as unimportant, instead it might be
               | impressive that something so abstract and distant was
               | able to rival something so elemental and popular.
               | 
               | My only point is I think geeks over-estimate the
               | popularity of space exploration, incorrectly generalizing
               | "it excites me/my type" to "it excites
               | everyone/humanity." If _regularly-held_ sporting events
               | eclipse _singular_ events in space exploration, it
               | deflates high-flying rhetoric that expects the latter to
               | be  "the single most watched event in human history."
               | 
               | I make no comment on the importance of sports. But I'd
               | argue that professional sports are probably _more_
               | abstract (ultimately counting according to some arbitrary
               | rules) and (practically, in a human sense) about as
               | distant as space exploration.
        
               | pcthrowaway wrote:
               | The global population in 1969 was about 3.5 billion
               | people, and I imagine global TV adoption was much lower
               | at the time as well. Even if 60% of people alive at the
               | time watched the moon landing, a sports event today would
               | only need to be watched by ~30% of the global population
               | to eclipse it.
               | 
               | I agree that a televised Mars landing would be the most
               | watched televised event in history.
        
               | stickfigure wrote:
               | So you get incredible Nielsen ratings for an hour or two,
               | then what?
        
               | robg wrote:
               | And if the Apollo "success" is any guide, it actually
               | hampers further progress because the milestone was
               | overhyped with no sustainable plan.
        
             | OfSanguineFire wrote:
             | I'd question even the interest among geeks. Recall the
             | observation that the rationalist or new-atheist community
             | of the early millennium declined just as social-justice
             | rhetoric rose: people were shifting their interest en masse
             | from one thing to another. I think geeky Westerners are so
             | focused right now on social and political battle within
             | Earth society that space exploration would draw no more
             | than a "that's neat" response before the discussion in
             | their bubbles went right back to the usual.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | The first landing would be the most watched event.
             | 
             | The sixth landing wouldn't pull anyone away from this
             | week's Monday-Night-Handegg game. The sixtieth would be
             | fighting for ratings with Charlie's Angels.
        
           | usrbinbash wrote:
           | > But who cares about that?
           | 
           | Everyone who actually has to make a mars colony _work_.
           | 
           | Because, yes _" yearning for the vast and endless sea"_ is
           | certainly more poetic than figuring out how to make beams
           | from tree trunks.
           | 
           | But without lots of people who think alot about trees and
           | carpentry figuring out how to reliably produce good quality
           | beams and techniques that allow for them to be fitted
           | together into a hull that won't break apart when hit by the
           | first few waves, no amount of yearning will result in a
           | working Carrack.
           | 
           | > human being landing on Mars would probably be the single
           | most watched event in human history.
           | 
           | Probably. And now imagine the reaction of all those people
           | watching, when the landing vehicle crashed and exploded, or
           | the Astronauts died horribly from thirst or starvation.
           | 
           | That's why there are people who care about building a
           | sustainable colony in the arctic dry valleys.
        
           | polotics wrote:
           | May I suggest that people who say what you say also do not
           | understand one thing?
           | 
           | To get excited about watching one man eking survival on Mars,
           | you have yourself to be quite far away from any concern for
           | your own survival here on earth.
           | 
           | To say it differently, this is very high on Maslow's pyramid.
           | 
           | For reference maybe check out Gilles Scott Heron's "Whitey on
           | the moon"...
        
           | walleeee wrote:
           | > People who say this don't understand that Mars colonies
           | aren't about pragmatic, resource-optimized decisions.
           | 
           | On the contrary, many of us agree very much with this. Mars
           | is not a practical goal at the moment and it doesn't make
           | sense from a resource perspective.
           | 
           | What might be more exciting, I think, is to develop such a
           | well-functioning, resilient terrestrial society, such an
           | abundant, adaptable community of life, that we _could_
           | realistically take ourselves and our companions to Mars and
           | hope to persist there. But that takes a lot of know-how, a
           | lot of materials and energy, and (most importantly) a lot of
           | wisdom.
           | 
           | Is a species steamrolling its paradise of a homeworld's
           | living fabric really capable of planting a viable colony on a
           | dead planet?
        
         | huthuthike wrote:
         | I agree with you that for the cost we can do more with
         | robotics, and it's safer.
         | 
         | However, we also need to factor in human psychology. It would
         | inspire billions of people worldwide to see a person on Mars.
         | This is not something that can be replicated by sending robotic
         | missions. It's possible that this could increase public support
         | for funding space exploration, and drive more people to go into
         | careers in science.
         | 
         | It's hard to predict the benefits of human exploration of space
         | because we don't know how the world will react. But it's a lot
         | more significant than just measuring the scientific output of
         | the mission.
        
           | robg wrote:
           | It's been over 50 years since a human was on the moon. The
           | need to replicate that psychological success has not been
           | there for humanity given the costs and better use of
           | resources. Mars is exponentially more expensive.
        
             | Quekid5 wrote:
             | Also the whole... "they're very probably not coming back
             | from Mars alive" thing :)
        
             | huthuthike wrote:
             | Doing something we've never done before is a lot more
             | exciting to people than repeating our previous success.
             | 
             | Think about it this way: who were the astronauts on the
             | first lunar landing mission? Who were the astronauts on the
             | last? Why do you think that we remember the first ones to
             | do it better?
        
               | robg wrote:
               | Who were the astronauts that died with Challenger?
               | Notoriety is hardly an index worth investing in.
               | 
               | A colony on the moon is technically possible, albeit very
               | expensive. Many nations could create one today. People
               | are choosing to spend their limited resources on better
               | forms of progress.
        
               | huthuthike wrote:
               | To your first point, I think success at doing something
               | that no human has done before is going to be more
               | memorable to the masses than failure to do something that
               | many people have done before. Hence we remember the first
               | people to land on the moon but we don't remember the
               | 200th astronaut that didn't make it into space cause they
               | died. Regardless, referring back to my original point,
               | it's not the fame of a specific individual that should be
               | the goal in a human mission to Mars. Instead it's a
               | combination of the scientific yields as well as the
               | increased public enthusiasm for science that could make a
               | human mission more valuable than robotic ones. It's very
               | hard to measure the latter but it should not be
               | discounted when considering the value of a human mission.
               | 
               | Regarding your second point, you were the one that said
               | we should spend the same resources of a manned mission on
               | robotic missions. So if it is going to cost $2 trillion
               | dollars for a manned mission we should spend $2 trillion
               | instead on robotic missions. Now it seems you are arguing
               | that we should spend the money elsewhere. If that's your
               | point it is a different discussion.
        
           | autoexec wrote:
           | > I agree with you that for the cost we can do more with
           | robotics, and it's safer.
           | 
           | I don't see much that's safe about robotics in our future. In
           | space they'll be great (until they turn on us), but on Earth
           | it seems like they'll mostly be used to kill people and if we
           | ever do get robot butlers and maids you can bet that they'll
           | be sending a continuous stream of audio and video of our
           | homes, conversations, and sex lives back to at least one
           | remote server as "telemetry" that will be sold off to data
           | brokers and our government.
        
             | robotresearcher wrote:
             | Robots on earth are mostly used in manufacturing and to
             | clean floors. Millions of them, today.
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | That's the case today only because they have such limited
               | capability. Our lowly roombas already want to spy on us.
               | 
               | https://gizmodo.com/roombas-next-big-step-is-selling-
               | maps-of...
               | 
               | https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/19/1065306/roomb
               | a-i...
               | 
               | https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/19/robot-vacuums-can-be-
               | hacked-a...
        
         | renewiltord wrote:
         | Then you should build that space company. Show us how it's
         | done.
        
         | Balgair wrote:
         | To add on to the Edit:
         | 
         | You can get humans on Mars with a big effort. Fine. Now get
         | them back off.
         | 
         | Simple hand waving shows it's a really really hard thing to do.
         | Let's assume current rocket science. You somehow have to get a
         | fueled launch vehicle off the surface. The gravity is less,
         | ~3/5ths, so it's a lot less fuel than on Earth, but it is still
         | a _lot_ of fuel. Somehow, without nearly any infrastructure and
         | in a near vacuum, this rocket has to successfully get off of
         | the surface. We can see that it 's really hard to do this just
         | on Earth with huge hangers and loads of experts and tools on
         | standby. Doing this on Mars with a few astronauts and lord
         | knows what sort of repair and maintenance facilities is just
         | going to be a _lot_ harder to pull off.
         | 
         | Fine, sure, now let's assume that we've somehow managed to have
         | improved the science of reliability engineering to the point
         | that we can just have fully fueled rockets just sitting on
         | Martian dirt for years on end [0]. How do you get that rocket
         | down from orbit? Like, how do you land that much fuel? That's a
         | _really hard_ problem to solve. Sure, fine, lots of little
         | payloads all over the place. But then you have to have some
         | sort of industrial machinery to go retrieve all those fuel pods
         | and then load up the rocket. Who or what are going to drive all
         | over Utopia Planitia to grab it all and then handle fueling?
         | Astronauts? AI? Whatever it is, it 's really expensive and has
         | to be really safe. Why not build the rocket on Mars too?
         | 
         | Any return from Mars requires sciences and industry that we
         | currently do not have, full stop. Iterating our way to that
         | future is possible, but is currently outside of our skill sets.
         | A _lot_ of money and time is going to be needed to get to
         | return missions. Ideas that this mission requires also upset
         | the state of current industrial manufacture, repair, and
         | maintenance here on Earth. Not in a bad way, mind you, but
         | those techniques are miles beyond what we currently can do and
         | will very much change the future of Earth just as much as it
         | changes Mars.
         | 
         | [0] By the by, do you have any idea what that science will do
         | to our Earth based industry? Nothing will ever break ever
         | again!
        
           | fastball wrote:
           | I'm not sure you realize this, but your comment is _exactly_
           | why colonizing Mars is a worthy adversary. It requires doing
           | things far beyond our knowhow, which historically is the best
           | way to actually get something done - inspire towards an
           | impossible goal and humanity can make it happen. You
           | generally don 't make technological leaps by pursuing things
           | you know you can do already. Even if we _don 't_ make it
           | happen, we are guaranteed to learn a plethora of useful
           | things along the way.
           | 
           | Needing "a lot of money and time" is irrelevant. Money is a
           | fiction and time we have in spades. Would we instead prefer
           | the brightest minds of humanity spend more of their days
           | optimizing algorithms that encourage other humans to sit on
           | their asses consuming ads? Or maybe it would be better if,
           | instead of designing Martian space-suits, we spend more time
           | designing fast-fashion clothing meant to be worn once or
           | twice, basking in hitherto unimagined heights of navel-
           | gazing.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | > Would we instead prefer the brightest minds of humanity
             | spend more of their days optimizing algorithms that
             | encourage other humans to sit on their asses consuming ads?
             | 
             | If I had to allocate them, I'd put them working on
             | renewables, useful carbon capture, and artificial "slow
             | organics" like wood.
             | 
             | But then, the great thing about markets is that they can
             | see more broadly than me. (And the bad thing is that they
             | can't see as far.)
             | 
             | Anyway, if we decide to invest on space exploitation
             | (instead of just exploration), I'd bet on asteroid mining
             | much before planet colonization. Settling down on a planet
             | seems to be a completely useless action.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | > I'm not sure you realize this, but your comment is
             | exactly why colonizing Mars is a worthy adversary. It
             | requires doing things far beyond our knowhow, which
             | historically is the best way to actually get something done
             | - inspire towards an impossible goal and humanity can make
             | it happen.
             | 
             | You can say the same thing about literally any other hard
             | problem, most of which have a far better ROI, and are still
             | not getting much traction.
             | 
             | There's a reason nobody's built a moon base.
        
         | at_a_remove wrote:
         | We can't even swing a _self-sufficient_ (emphasis added) colony
         | on the much more hospitable Antarctica. Short of that, anyone
         | sent to Mars needs a handy supply of cyanide capsules for the
         | inevitable disaster. In the next twenty years, arrival of human
         | meat on Mars is just bragging rights. Want exploration? We
         | could do more of that with robots. Backup civilization? Simply
         | not going to happen until we can get that Antarctica colony
         | rolling. Nobody in, nobody out, allowance of once every two
         | years robot-guided payloads under ten tons, and it has to run
         | for forty years ... _that_ is a good example of a colony.
         | 
         | Realistically, we need things like autonomous self-replicating
         | robot factories in the asteroids chucking payloads of metals
         | onto designated landing targets on Mars, and their cousins
         | maybe retrieving the odd iceberg from the Oort to make a long
         | trip over. We'll need boring machines, Mars specials, that can
         | leave sealed tunnels several yards underground where the
         | radiation won't be as annoying. We will need to create thirty
         | Biospheres a year here on Earth, each year a new generation,
         | and _learn_ from them. Thirty is a good number if you want to
         | do stats and discount one-offs. And we 'll have to start
         | tweaking the genes on what is in those Biospheres to figure out
         | what will make them compatible with, say, underground caverns
         | built by those boring machines.
         | 
         | This isn't like a trip to a remote island.
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | Sounds like a plan to put boots on mars.
        
         | nico wrote:
         | We could be exploring the inside of our own planet. We have
         | literally only scratched the surface and we barely know
         | anything about the deeper parts of Earth, yet we are obsessed
         | with places that are incredibly far away and hard to reach
        
         | BiteCode_dev wrote:
         | I'm pretty sure people said things like that when talking about
         | sending people to the moon.
         | 
         | And people probably said things like that to Columbus about
         | sending boats across the ocean.
         | 
         | Humanity has to do grand projects like this that seem
         | ridiculous, because once in a while, it changes everything.
         | 
         | And even if it doesn't, the cheer amount of ingenuity it
         | requires brings benefit on their own.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | > I'm pretty sure people said things like that when talking
           | about sending people to the moon.
           | 
           | Yep. And those reasons are why people touched it a few times
           | and never came back.
           | 
           | > And people probably said things like that to Columbus about
           | sending boats across the ocean.
           | 
           | Hum... Nope. People were already sending boats across that
           | specific ocean for centuries.
        
             | BiteCode_dev wrote:
             | > Yep. And those reasons are why people touched it a few
             | times and never came back.
             | 
             | And it changed the world forever. Probably contributed to
             | avoid the cold war to turn hot. Not to mention we got
             | diapers out of it, and a healthy space program that made
             | amazing things possible like the GPS.
             | 
             | > Hum... Nope. People were already sending boats across
             | that specific ocean for centuries.
             | 
             | Nick picking. People didn't know that.
        
           | usrbinbash wrote:
           | I'm also pretty sure some people said things like "We will
           | soon have colonies on the moon" shortly after Neil Armstrong
           | stepped off that Lunar Lander ladder.
           | 
           | Fun fact: No human has set foot on the Moon since 1972:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17
           | 
           | Also: When Columbus set sail, he could reasonably assume that
           | he would see his home again. Big boats and long sea voyages
           | were not a new technology in his time. When NASA started the
           | Apollo Missions, they had them planned out from start to
           | finish and knew exactly how that would work.
           | 
           | So yes, once in a while, humanity does something amazing,
           | that seems a bit far fetched, but still reasonable. What
           | humanity usually doesn't do, is something that it has
           | absolutely no plan on how to do it.
        
         | mikewarot wrote:
         | If you want humans on Mars, first you need a self-sufficient
         | logistics chain on Mars. We've made breathable Oxygen on Mars,
         | and we should be able to make a Von Neuman probe to send, and
         | set up that supply chain. Instead of having it manage itself,
         | we simply make it remote control, and we don't have to worry
         | about run-away issues.
         | 
         | We should be able to go anywhere there's large enough of a
         | fraction of the resources required for human life. For
         | instance, if there's NO phosphorus, instead of just a smaller
         | percentage, it's no-go, unless we're willing to live off a
         | stockpile imported from elsewhere.
         | 
         | So, ambient temperature and pressure, along with elemental
         | composition, are really the only hard limits.
        
         | Projectiboga wrote:
         | Mars only has 0.39 of our gravity. I don't see that as a viable
         | place for humans to live.
        
           | jayGlow wrote:
           | why not? we know microgravity has a negative effect on people
           | but we haven't tested 1/3rd gravity. unless I missed
           | something we don't know the threshold for negative effects
           | from lowered gravity.
        
         | awongh wrote:
         | I just watched this depressing video about the $130b dollars
         | spent building a high speed rail in England (HS2). He actually
         | mentions off-hand how many James Webb Space Telescopes that
         | could buy. (the video is about the fact that the rail line will
         | actually be 100% useless in the end, not just overpriced)
         | https://youtu.be/rQ8mpBL07l8
         | 
         | So maybe it's fine if we spend a bunch of money on getting to
         | Mars. There are plenty of interesting arguments for doing it,
         | and it would be a way better use of resources than just
         | flushing it down the toilet on useless infrastructure. Could be
         | much worse.
        
         | Qem wrote:
         | > Without a self-sustaining colony and next generation
         | propulsion tech, any humans on Mars as a backup plan will die
         | lonely deaths.
         | 
         | Actually there are elder scientists wanting to volunteer for
         | such a mission. See https://philpapers.org/rec/MAKTBG
        
         | mjan22640 wrote:
         | Self sustaining robots would be a cool project on Earth even.
        
         | simonebrunozzi wrote:
         | Agreed with you.
         | 
         | Relevant reading: "Why Not Mars" [0]
         | 
         | [0]: https://idlewords.com/2023/1/why_not_mars.htm
        
       | throw1234651234 wrote:
       | I have to ask the stupid question: Geothermal heating and energy
       | production is still impossible in a practical sense, right?
        
       | kaycebasques wrote:
       | The ingenuity (and accumulated knowledge) of people never stops
       | amazing me. "Well, we can't actually drill into Mars to see what
       | it's made of, so let's slap a marsquake detector on the surface
       | and we'll measure seismic energy from meteor impacts to figure
       | out what this bad boy's guts are made of." Of course no NASA
       | person actually talks like this; I have been reading too much
       | Heinlein.
       | 
       | Also, they use the term "marsquake". Never stopped to think about
       | how geocentric the term "earthquake" is!
        
         | KingLancelot wrote:
         | It'll blown your mind when you realize what "Geo" means.
         | 
         | (Geo is the Greek word for Earth)
        
         | qiine wrote:
         | moonquake exist too !
         | https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/14/world/moonquakes-apollo-1...
        
           | kaycebasques wrote:
           | That was some pleasant, info-dense reporting from CNN. Didn't
           | know they still had it in 'em!
           | 
           | > The lunar surface is an extreme environment, oscillating
           | between minus 208 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 133 degrees
           | Celsius) in the dark and 250 degrees Fahrenheit (121 degrees
           | Celsius) in direct sun, according to a news release about the
           | study.
           | 
           | Just re-read _The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress_. It 's fun to
           | have some hard data on exactly how harsh the surface is. It
           | comes up a few times in the book.
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | As the article shortly touches on, it's how we know what the
         | earth is made out of too. Our deepest borehole reaches 0.2% of
         | the distance to the middle of the earth, most of what we know
         | is instead from measuring seismic waves from earthquakes.
        
         | HerculePoirot wrote:
         | In French "to land" is "atterrir" (to earth). So we have
         | "alunir".
         | 
         | >The eagle has mooned !
         | 
         | https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/amarsir
        
           | tomrod wrote:
           | I love this in so many ways!
        
           | umanwizard wrote:
           | "earth" (with a lowercase letter) means roughly the same
           | thing as ground, land, soil, etc, just like "terre" in
           | French.
        
         | feoren wrote:
         | Some people call Hacker News the "Orange Site", but of course
         | that's way too fruit-centric, so we shouldn't call it that --
         | the website banner is not actually a citrus fruit at all!
         | 
         | Or can we just accept that orange-the-color is a fundamentally
         | different idea than orange-the-fruit, despite the fact that the
         | former is named after the latter? Can we accept that "earth"
         | can simply refer to the material that makes up the hard surface
         | layer of a planet, as a different idea than "Earth" the planet
         | after which it's named? Is that OK? Do we really need to come
         | up with a new word for "Solar Power" if the power comes from a
         | light source other than our own sun? Can we call the large-
         | scale geoengineering of Mars "terraforming", or must we insist
         | that it's "marsaforming" (and not "geoengineering", but
         | "marsoengineering")? Can we call something "romantic" even if
         | it isn't actually written in Latin ("from Medieval Latin
         | romanice, Vulgar Latin romanice ("in the Roman language",
         | adverb"))? Is that OK with everyone?
         | 
         | It's a damn earthquake.
        
           | burnished wrote:
           | ..how did the words 'marsquake' and 'geocentric' set you off
           | so badly? None of your examples even loosely fit the mold,
           | 'terra' and 'geo' don't refer to a specific planet in this
           | context at all.
           | 
           | Marsquake is a fun word. You can also call it an earthquake
           | and no one will bat an eye.
        
             | ChainOfFools wrote:
             | I'm not sure why I agree with the op, but I do. I think it
             | has something to do with the fact that this convention of
             | planet prefix, and geological activity suffix is not going
             | to work well at astronomical scales. Epsilon-eridani-c-
             | quake is kind of a mouthful, no?
             | 
             | It could be argued that doesn't work very well on a human
             | scale either. after all when there's an earthquake, barring
             | a civilization-ending apocalyptic situation, it's not the
             | whole Earth that's quaking (at a human scale perspective),
             | but rather a localized crustal region of it. A patch of
             | earth (lowercase).
        
               | dumpsterdiver wrote:
               | This is akin to worrying that the sky is falling when
               | literally two drops of rain fell.
               | 
               | "Oh my god, what are we going to do when the rest of it
               | comes?!"
        
             | feoren wrote:
             | > 'terra' and 'geo' don't refer to a specific planet in
             | this context at all
             | 
             | Although originating as basically meaning "dry land", the
             | word "Terra" became a proper name for the Earth in Latin
             | around the Renaissance. The prefix "Geo" comes from the
             | Greek for "Earth", the name of our planet. If you argue
             | that "geo" really just means "land, ground, soil", etc.,
             | then you are _exactly agreeing with me_ , since the word
             | "earth" went through the same evolution: Geo-the-planet was
             | named after geo-the-dirt. Earth-the-planet was named after
             | earth-the-dirt.
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | If we start retiring Earth-centric terms too quickly,
               | we'll have to invent tons of planet-specific cognates:
               | not geography but marsography, lunagraphy, etc. Same with
               | Sun-centric terms vs other star systems.
               | 
               | I would suggest going for generic terms like
               | "planetquake".
        
           | ChainOfFools wrote:
           | That raises an interesting question, is the surface of Mars
           | made out of mars, or is it made out of Earth? In english,
           | capitalizing a noun clarifies this, but that approach may not
           | generalize to other languages.
        
             | croddin wrote:
             | Once we start construction on mars, will the machines be
             | called marsmoving equipment?
        
           | Kye wrote:
           | Is this a bit? It feels like a bit.
        
             | adolph wrote:
             | It got enough comments chewing it that it's at least a byte
        
           | tomrod wrote:
           | Quake is sufficient, no need to apply designations.
        
             | adolph wrote:
             | Many things may quake, friends.
        
               | tomrod wrote:
               | Indeed. Such as planets, love handles during aerobics,
               | and Jello.
        
               | dekhn wrote:
               | and bowels.
        
         | pcthrowaway wrote:
         | > Of course no NASA person actually talks like this
         | 
         | Are you saying "The Martian" was inaccurate?
        
       | ojosilva wrote:
       | Off-topic nitpicking: I find it intriguing to encounter the term
       | "marsquake" in scientific articles, or anywhere outside science
       | fiction. Replacing the prefix "earth" with the nomenclature of a
       | celestial body is somewhat perplexing and unnecessary. This
       | practice is more plausible when applied to "Earth," our own
       | planet with that capitalized "E" - for instance, the
       | transformation from "earthling" to "marsling" is linguistically
       | sound. Are we going to now "unmars" new data from these studies?
       | Will potatoes grown on Mars have a "marsy" taste to them? Will
       | this practice scale when we finally colonize the Solar System and
       | have to replace these words for each and every planet or moon?
       | Should "colonize" be called "elonize" the Solar System since
       | Columbus is controversially bound to Earth history alone? /s
        
         | AnIrishDuck wrote:
         | > Will potatoes grown on Mars have a "marsy" taste to them?
         | 
         | Probably will depend on whether there is a difference you can
         | taste from earthy to "marsy" potatoes. Some experimental trials
         | [1] have indicated that growing potatoes on Mars will be
         | difficult, but possible.
         | 
         | Google is telling me Geosmin is the chemical typically
         | associated with earthy odor and taste [2]. The mars regolith is
         | apparently quite salty, so it's completely possible that
         | "marsy" taste may become associated with some similar common
         | chemical product of martian agriculture?
         | 
         | 1. https://cipotato.org/annualreport2016/stories/mars-potatoes/
         | 2. https://www.acs.org/molecule-of-the-
         | week/archive/g/geosmin.h...
        
       | bilsbie wrote:
       | Why no magnetic field then?
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | Spoiler: The "surprise" layer is (relatively) quite thin, and
       | just outside Mars' molten core. That Mars _has_ a molten interior
       | is not a surprise at all, and evidence for very recent
       | (relatively) volcanic activity on the Martian surface has been
       | piling up for a century or more.
        
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