Operational Risk Management: What It Is and How It Applies To You

Operational risk management (ORM) is a military term used to describe the thought process one would use when making decisions in the field. It requires a conscious decision be made regarding all actions before they're taken, in an effort to determine the best course of action for any given situation.

Any time you're presented with a decision, you need to ask yourself whether the benefits of said action are outweighed by the risks. If the risks are greater than the benefits, you should not take action.

An example of this would be coming across a raging river you failed to identify when scouting out the path to your bug-out location. You have multiple options. You could choose to try to ford the river. This may be the best choice if there are people on your tail and you need to get to your location as expediently as possible. If you have small children with you, this isn't a good option because the risk of losing a child in the fast current is too high. You could choose to head up or down the river to look for a better place to cross. This will take more time, but may be the best choice if you don't think your party can make it across the river intact. Another option would be to strike off in a different direction and head for a new bug out location. If you've identified multiple places you can bug out to, you may decide crossing the river isn't the best choice since you know of a different spot on this side of the river.

The list of decisions you could make goes on and on. ORM requires that you quickly assess your choices and make an informed decision when presented with a scenario in which there are multiple paths you can take, all with their own sets of rewards and consequences.

The first and foremost ORM decision you're going to have to make is whether or not it's time to bug out. Things may not be as bad as they first appear. Are there other options? Ask yourself whether you'd be better off staying in place and waiting for help to come or if it's time to grab your bags and head out on your own.

This decision depends on the situation at hand. If you've just seen a news clip stating there's a nuclear missile headed toward your town and it's set to hit in an hour, the choice is pretty clear-cut. It's time to GTFO (get the F out). On the other hand, if you're in a flood zone and waters are beginning to rise a bit, you've got an altogether different situation on your hands. Now, you've got to ask yourself whether you'd be better off heading to a shelter or striking off into the woods. The shelter is probably the better option in this scenario.

If your home is on high ground, you may be better off staying put. On the other hand, if you live in a tract home in a low-lying area, you're probably better off heading for higher ground.

A big part of ORM is creating a plan that attempts to think through all possible situations that may occur.

Here's a thought process that uses ORM to create a solid plan on where you can bug out to in the event of an emergency:

 
  1. Where am I going to go in the event of an emergency?
  2. What am I going to do if I get there and someone is already there?
  3. What if they won't leave or share the location?
  4. Where else can I go?
  5. What happens if I get to the second location and it's taken?
  6. What if the people there won't leave or share the location?
  7. Where else can I go?

You can take this plan as many levels deep as you feel comfortable with. The more levels down you go, the better prepared you'll be for any situation. You need to assess where you're going to go and how you're going to react to various situations. The way you'd react to a terrorist attack is going to be completely different from the way you'd react to a wildfire burning out of control miles away from your home.

Planning ahead makes ORM easier when it comes time to make a decision. You're not going to be thinking rationally when you feel threatened and may make a rash decision that could end up costing you dearly. If you've thought things through beforehand, you're more likely to make a good decision based on your thought process when you were able to think clearly.

Another item you need to plan ahead for is how you're going to manage your bug out bag and supplies. Ask yourself the following questions:

 
  1. Where am I going to store my supplies and bug out bags?
  2. What am I going to do if I can't get to them in the event of an emergency? Should I store back-up bags at an alternate location?
  3. What if I can't get to my backup bags? Should I have another location where supplies are stored?
  4. If all of my back-up locations are compromised, where will I go for supplies?

Again, it's up to you how deep you want to take it. The deeper you go with your thought process and planning, the more prepared you'll be.

Apply ORM thinking to all aspects of your bug out plan to make sure you have alternate plans in place. You can thank me later when you're headed to your back-up cache of supplies stored at your alternate location because you know the first location isn't accessible.

One more tip. Your back-up cache of supplies should be close enough to where you can get to it, but far enough away so it isn't affected by the same emergency situation. If you keep your back-up cache at a friend's house down the street from you and you're barricaded from entering the city in which you live, you're not going to be able to get to either of them without putting yourself at risk.