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Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region – World Weather Attribution [1]

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Date: 2023-09 

During the first two weeks of September 2023 torrential rain fell in several countries across the Mediterranean, caused by low-pressure systems forming around a blocking high centred over the Netherlands.

On the 3rd of September torrential rain fell within a few hours in Spain, followed by very heavy rain and floods caused by the low-pressure system “Daniel” in Greece and Bulgaria between the 4th and the 7th of September, and devastating floods in Libya after very extreme rainfall during the 10th.

All three individual rainfall events caused severe flooding, submerging settlements, leaving thousands homeless and killing at least four people in Bulgaria, six in Spain, seven in Türkiye, and 17 in Greece. Further, 3,958 casualties have been confirmed in the Libyan city of Derna alone, and an additional 170 fatalities elsewhere in the country, while more than 10,000 people are still missing after two major dams broke.

Researchers from Greece, the United States of America, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall that led to the flooding.

To capture the different characteristics of the heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding we focus on two regions to assess the role of climate change: one over Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye encompassing the region impacted by storm “Daniel” characterised as 4 day maximum rainfall averaged over land in the region 36 to 42.5N and 20 to 28.5 E (red box in Figure 1, 4th to 7th of September). Given that the region receives little rain over the summer (JJAS) but much more in winter, we focus for this event on 4-day max rainfall in the summer season. Secondly, we look at 1-day maximum annual rainfall in a smaller region over Libya (32 to 33N and 20 to 23E, red box in Figure 1, 10th September) where most of the heavy rain fell that led to the devastating flooding in Derna and the surrounding area. We do not assess the role of climate change for the event in Spain due to the fact that the rain fell in less than 24 hours.

Key findings

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[1] Url: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/interplay-of-climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-exposure-and-vulnerability-led-to-widespread-impacts-in-the-mediterranean-region/

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