(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Nevada House race poll reveals campaign challenges for Democrats in November [1] [] Date: 2022-06-28 20:16:59.646000 A fresh poll showing Rep. Susie Lee (D) trailing Republican challenger April Becker in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District is a crystal-clear example of the violent political crosswinds buffeting President Joe Biden and the Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections. Biden would have defeated former President Donald Trump by 6.6 percentage points had the boundaries of this newly configured southern Nevada district been operable in 2020. But among likely voters surveyed June 20-23, the president’s job approval rating was an abysmal 37% — below his 38.9% national average. His slide is making trouble for Lee, first elected to the House in 2018. Lee was losing to Becker 46% to 44% in the poll, even lagging among Hispanics 48% to 42%. The survey, for the Becker campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee, was conducted by GOP pollster Dave Sackett. Nine percent of likely voters said they were undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points. “Nevada Democrats are facing serious headwinds this year,” said Ryan Erwin, a veteran Republican strategist in the Silver State. “The environment is ripe for Republican upsets.” Erwin is advising Republicans running for office this year in Nevada, though not Becker. He said Democrats are sinking under the weight of “$6 gas, a sagging economy, policies that handcuff law enforcement and have hurt small businesses,” not to mention Biden’s low ratings in regions of the state that, until recently, “had been consistently trending Democrat.” THE SENATE SIX: THESE PITCHED BATTLES WILL DECIDE WHICH PARTY WINS MAJORITY The findings in this Republican poll of Nevada’s 3rd District predate the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Center that overturned Roe v. Wade and eliminated federal protections for abortion rights that stood for nearly a half-century. The political fallout from this landmark 5-4 decision might yet offer a reprieve to vulnerable Democrats, such as Lee, especially in battleground districts and seats inclined to support liberal candidates. Indeed, the Lee campaign immediately launched a television advertising campaign built around the danger to abortion rights in GOP-governed states, while Democrats generally sought to put Republicans on the defensive on an issue that initial national polling suggests cuts against them. In surveys conducted after Friday’s Dobbs ruling, a majority of voters opposed the loss of federal abortion rights protections, with a plurality of voters preferring Democrats over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. “Every single House Republican must explain their record of attacking women’s personal freedoms and answer whether they support their party leaders’ plan to impose a draconian nationwide abortion ban,” Helen Kalla, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement. But whether the Supreme Court’s decision materially affects the midterm elections remains unclear, and the political environment in southern Nevada illustrated by the Becker campaign’s survey is a perfect microcosm of the dynamic that has been unfolding across the United States for several months. In House districts that rejected Trump and embraced Biden less than two years ago, skyrocketing inflation, record-high gas prices and broad dissatisfaction with the president and his party in Washington are conspiring to fuel a red tsunami that threatens to sweep Democrats from power in Congress this fall. This building electoral wave is poised to subsume territory, such as Nevada, inhospitable to Republicans for years. The GOP has not enjoyed a successful election in the state since 2014. “I’m seeing this as being 2018 in reverse,” said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster in Louisiana. Four years ago, midway through Trump’s presidency, a blue wave terminated the Republican Party’s House majority, flipping 40 GOP-held seats. (Democrats also ousted incumbent Senate Republicans in Arizona and Nevada.) The sweeping Democratic victory, propelled by intense frustration with the 45th president, was fueled by suburban voters with conservative sensibilities on fiscal and national security issues who lived in districts that traditionally supported Republican congressional candidates. Another key factor in the gains Democrats achieved in 2018 was their enthusiasm advantage. Voters supporting Democratic candidates were more excited about pulling the lever, or mailing in their ballot, than were voters who were backing Republicans. Couvillon emphasized he is seeing this play out again in 2022 but “in reverse.” So far this year, Republican turnout in primary elections in 21 states he has studied has significantly exceeded Democratic turnout. “In state after state after state, I’m seeing elevated Republican turnout and the opposite was the case in 2018,” said Couvillon, who has tracked these statistics dating back to the 2010 midterm elections. He explained Republican turnout in primaries so far this year is up 26% compared to 2018, while Democratic turnout is down 4%. Also, four years ago, GOP turnout comprised 48% of the electorate in the corresponding primaries. This year it has equaled 54%. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER “Independents are bailing on the Democrats left and right,” Couvillon added. That was evident in Sackett’s poll for the Becker campaign, as was the GOP enthusiasm edge. Becker led Lee 40% to 38% among independent voters, and Republican voters are more supportive of their party’s standard-bearer (89%) than were Democratic voters of theirs (78%). In the survey, voters’ priorities also benefited Becker, with 40% saying they are most concerned about “economic issues.” Within this group, 27% cited inflation and 13% referenced jobs. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/nevada-house-race-poll-reveals-campaign-challenges-for-democrats-in-november Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/